1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:09,799 Speaker 2: What are your favorite egg dishes? 3 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 3: Egg dishes? Yeah, oh, I like fried eggs. I have 4 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:19,600 Speaker 3: fried eggs every morning sunnyside up, yep. And we make 5 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 3: a lot of kish so that's good too. 6 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:26,440 Speaker 4: Today, like everyone else, you know, we're talking about the 7 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 4: price of eggs. 8 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 3: I'm Jim Hayes. I work at my farm with my family, 9 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 3: and it's located in West Fulton, New York. It's upstate 10 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:36,840 Speaker 3: New York. 11 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 4: And how many egg laying hens do you have? 12 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 3: We have right now we have about one hundred and fifty. 13 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 4: Jim's a small scale farmer on Sapbush Hollow farm. He 14 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 4: raises chickens for eggs and meat. He also has hogs 15 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 4: and sheep. He sells locally, not to national grocery stores, 16 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 4: but like many poultry farmers in the US right now, 17 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 4: he feels his business is under threat from bird flu. 18 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 3: Well, we go in and out of the barn, you know, 19 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 3: we wash our feet and with the disinfectant and try 20 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 3: to be as calutious as we possibly can. The main 21 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,199 Speaker 3: problem where we might get birds the infected is from 22 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 3: traveling waterfowl, and in fact, in our area we had 23 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 3: two identified with bird flu about six or seven miles 24 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 3: from here last week, so we're pretty concerned. 25 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:29,400 Speaker 4: Jim's hens are healthy for now, but he knows how 26 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,839 Speaker 4: quickly that could change if. 27 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 3: The disease gets into your flock. All right, As a 28 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 3: state vet says, you don't have to worry about treating him. 29 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 3: You identify it, call him as soon as possible. But yeah, 30 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 3: I sorry that the majority of the birds will be 31 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 3: dead within forty eight hours. And if they're not, they 32 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 3: come in and they will kill all the birds, all right, 33 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 3: I mean dispose of them. 34 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 4: The state vet will kill them. 35 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, the state will come in and kill them if 36 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 3: they're not dead already. 37 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 4: And what would that mean for you if bird came 38 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 4: to your flock and all your chickens had to be killed. 39 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 3: It's the poultry is diversified. It wouldn't wipe us out, 40 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 3: but it would be a significant hit to our operation, 41 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 3: all right. I would say it would cut our income 42 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 3: by at least thirty five percent. 43 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:24,959 Speaker 4: Jim says he's recently raised his egg prices a little bit, 44 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:27,799 Speaker 4: but if you've been to the grocery store recently, you've 45 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 4: probably seen eggs with eye popping new markups. And even 46 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 4: limits on Carton's per customer. Bird flu is having a 47 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,679 Speaker 4: serious effect on the chicken industry, and so in this episode, 48 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 4: we're turning to Bloomberg's Joe Wisenthal and Tracy Alloway. They're 49 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 4: the hosts of the odd Locks podcast, and they've recently 50 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 4: reported out a special series called Beak Capitalism. It's all 51 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 4: about the poultry supply chain. We'll talk about how this 52 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 4: latest outbreak of bird flu is rocking the chicken and 53 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 4: egg markets in the US and what it means for inflation. 54 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 4: I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from 55 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:12,119 Speaker 4: Bloomberg News. Joe, Tracy, have you tried to buy eggs recently? 56 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 4: How did that go? 57 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 2: You know what, I'm gonna tell you a secret, which 58 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 2: is I could see this coming months ago, and I 59 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 2: stocked up on a bunch of eggs, So if anyone 60 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 2: needs them, I have a whole fridge filled with eggs. 61 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 1: I feel guilty about buying eggs like these are like 62 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: really hard to get. Or when I go to a 63 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 1: restaurant and I order an omelet, I'm like, Oh, I 64 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 1: wonder if they're now losing money on this because they 65 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 1: haven't updated their menu prices. And stuff like I have 66 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: this like every time I just sort of enjoy an egg, 67 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: it's like, oh, this is I'm really indulging in a 68 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 1: luxury here. 69 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 4: The price of pretty much everything at the grocery store 70 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 4: has gotten more expensive over the last few years. But 71 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 4: lately the price of eggs has been hitting record highs, 72 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 4: and Joe and Tracy say bird flu is to blame. 73 00:03:57,560 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 4: I don't think. 74 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: There's any other real catalyst for some of the increases 75 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: we've seen, like, you know, fifteen percent jump in January. 76 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 1: I think over seven dollars as of February seventh average 77 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: for a dozen eggs with seven thirty four. You know, 78 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:16,039 Speaker 1: obviously when egg prices went up a lot in twenty 79 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: twenty one during the general inflation, you know, there was 80 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: a bird flu, but it was also widespread inflation, and 81 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 1: the were issues with feed and there were issues with fertilizer. 82 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 1: This is not really a story of general inflation right now. 83 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 1: This is relative prices and it's eggs specific. It is 84 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: unambiguously the bird. 85 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 4: Flu story at a basic level, how do producers set 86 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 4: the price of eggs? 87 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 2: So this is interesting. It's actually more complicated than maybe 88 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 2: you would have thought. There is an egg board. They 89 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 2: sort of set either baseline prices or wholesale prices the farmers. 90 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 2: The egg farmers will sell their eggs, they'll agree contracts 91 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 2: to sell to wholesalers, think about the big grocery stores 92 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,920 Speaker 2: like a Walmart or something like that, and then Walmart 93 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 2: will decide what the final retail price is going to be. Obviously, 94 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 2: they want to make a profit over the wholesale price 95 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 2: that they paid the farmer, and so that's where there's 96 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:19,480 Speaker 2: a decent amount of discretion. I would say for farmers, 97 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 2: some of their contracts they might be locked into a 98 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:25,279 Speaker 2: specific price for a longer period of time, so they 99 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 2: might not necessarily be able to adjust their prices as 100 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 2: quickly if there's a shortage. But certainly on the retail side, 101 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 2: nowadays people can change prices very very quickly in ways 102 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 2: that maybe twenty years ago you really weren't able to 103 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 2: do that much. 104 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 3: Right. 105 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 4: What about how do producers set the price of chicken? 106 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 4: Is that a similar process? Is there a chicken board? 107 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 2: I am not sure if there's a chicken board, But 108 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 2: what I would say a lot of people have been asking, well, 109 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 2: if there's all this bird flu and there's an egg shortage. 110 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 2: Why is there not a chicken shortag? Why aren't we 111 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 2: seeing the price of meat go up? And the answer 112 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 2: to that is very simple. It takes a lot longer 113 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 2: to grow an egg laying hen than it does to 114 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 2: grow a meat chicken. Meat chickens, if you don't know, 115 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:19,119 Speaker 2: live very sad and very short lives. They're killed after 116 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 2: basically a few weeks. They hatch, they eat a lot 117 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 2: to get big and fat, and then they're killed and 118 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 2: that takes like a month or a little over a month. 119 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 2: Egg laying chickens you have to wait for them to mature, 120 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 2: and that takes something like six months at least, And 121 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: so that's why you're getting this gap. When farmers have 122 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,480 Speaker 2: to destroy chickens because they found bird flu in their flock, 123 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 2: it takes them half a year to rebuild that egg 124 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 2: laying flock. 125 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 4: If a farmer does have to kill all of their 126 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 4: chickens in accordance with federal rules, they will get some 127 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 4: compensation for that loss, but as the upstate New York 128 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 4: poultry farmer Jim Hayes says, that money likely won't replace 129 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 4: the loss in profits. 130 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:05,479 Speaker 3: I don't know what it would be, but I assure you. Historically, 131 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 3: all over the world where they've had to do this, 132 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 3: none of the farmers has been happy. 133 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 4: If this government response of killing birds and compensating the 134 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 4: farmers sounds drastic, it's because bird flu has proven to 135 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 4: be highly contagious. 136 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 3: Once it gets in, all right, they come and contact 137 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 3: each other when they go to feed, all right, they'll 138 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 3: go to a feeder, peck a little feed, and then 139 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 3: they'll leave, and then another will go there and they'll leave, 140 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 3: you know, the disease and it's highly contagious, and it 141 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 3: transfers very rapidly, and the morbidity mortality rates morbidity and 142 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 3: mortality are exceedingly high. 143 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 4: Would that be emotional for you if all your chickens doyn. 144 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 3: Of course, yeah. Anytime you know, you've got birds, you 145 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 3: got any animal, all right that dies like that, then 146 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 3: we try to do our best to put it up 147 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 3: with it. Like my grandchildren, the two that are operating 148 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 3: on the farm, all right, once twenty one and one sixteen, 149 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 3: but they each have a couple of pet chickens, all right, 150 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 3: and a pet goose, and they would all go, you know, 151 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 3: so it would be a be significant, all right. It's 152 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 3: a public health situation, and there is the concern now 153 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 3: that this flu has jumped to Derek Cows. One person's 154 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 3: died from it. But as the state that indicated, this 155 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 3: is a flu which is mutating very rapidly, so we 156 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 3: don't know what's going to happen. They could jump into 157 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 3: humans and be a real problem, and that's a concern 158 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 3: and why they're trying to control it. 159 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 4: Coming up after the break, Joe and Tracy on what 160 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:50,839 Speaker 4: bird flu means for the eggs on your plate, whether 161 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,559 Speaker 4: you're cooking them at home or eating out, and what 162 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 4: if anything, the Trump administration can do to bring soaring 163 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 4: egg prices back down. I wanted to ask Oddlot's hosts 164 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 4: Joe Wisenthal and Tracy Alloway about how this disease is 165 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 4: starting to impact a few very important stakeholders, the people 166 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 4: and companies who buy eggs. 167 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 2: Restaurants would be an obvious one, and in fact, we've 168 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:25,199 Speaker 2: seen some restaurants respond to this. Waffle House famously has 169 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 2: now instituted a fifty cent surcharge on its egg dishes, 170 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 2: which is disappointing for me and Joe because we're big 171 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 2: waffle House fans, But again, you know, the consumer, the 172 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 2: customer is mostly willing to accept these price hikes because 173 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 2: we know, we all listen to the news and we 174 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 2: hear how big a deal Avian flu is. 175 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: I mean, look, the other thing is part of the 176 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 1: point of price increases is demand destruction, right Like, there 177 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 1: are obviously going to be people at the margin, unfortunately 178 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: for whom the price hits a point where like, I'm 179 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: going to buy fewer eggs because market it's a balance 180 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: out buyers and sellers, and so part of the you know, 181 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 1: one of the things that a price increases do is 182 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: decrease the amount of buyers. Now, how many people aren't 183 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 1: ordering an egg at waffle Houser, aren't ordering an omelet 184 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: or sunnyside up eggs because of the search arge. I 185 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: have no idea, but of course these things will have 186 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 1: an effect on demand, and we you know, we've talked 187 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: about it, just like people buying fewer eggs right now 188 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:25,439 Speaker 1: because of the reality of. 189 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 4: This great eggs are considered an essential but that could 190 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 4: start to change if it hits a certain threshold. 191 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's why this is so like such a serious 192 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 1: existential issue for the econversy. Yeah, I know, I didn't 193 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 1: mean to eggs stential, but like you know, we're not 194 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: talking about the price of persons here, where it's like. 195 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:51,439 Speaker 2: A liver, you can live a great shortage of five. 196 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 1: This is like an essential end product eggs, and also 197 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: an ingredient into all kinds of things. 198 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 4: One of Donald Trump's promises coming into the White House 199 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 4: was to lower the price of eggs. It was a 200 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:07,719 Speaker 4: campaign issue, but the Consumer Price Index shows inflation is 201 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 4: getting worse in general, and in January, egg prices hit 202 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:16,560 Speaker 4: another record high. Is there anything the Trump administration can 203 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:19,679 Speaker 4: do to ease inflation on egg prices? And is he 204 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 4: doing it? 205 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:25,559 Speaker 2: So this has been the big talking point basically since 206 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 2: the pandemic. Inflation went up for a whole bunch of 207 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:33,959 Speaker 2: reasons that you know, largely were outside of policy makers control. 208 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 2: So it's a little bit ridiculous to see JD. Vance 209 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 2: standing in a grocery aisle saying stuff like from day one, 210 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 2: we're going to lower egg prices, because as we've seen, 211 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 2: it's not that easy. These are very complicated real world problems. 212 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 2: They're difficult to solve, and they certainly take time to solve, 213 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,839 Speaker 2: and there's always the risk that bird flu might come back. 214 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:02,439 Speaker 2: That said, you know, there are some things that could help. 215 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 2: So there is a bird flu vaccine specifically for birds, 216 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 2: and some places around the world they use it. The 217 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 2: reason the US doesn't vaccinate its chickens is because of 218 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 2: the export market. 219 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 4: The US exports a lot of chicken meat and products, 220 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 4: about five point five billion dollars last year, but many 221 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 4: of our trading partners won't import chickens that have been vaccinated. 222 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 4: This has put players within the US poultry industry at 223 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,680 Speaker 4: odds with each other. Egg producers tend to be in 224 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 4: favor of a national vaccine strategy, while meat processors are 225 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 4: largely opposed. 226 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:40,959 Speaker 3: Well. 227 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 4: Other parts of the world have been affected by bird 228 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 4: flu outbreaks in the past. Do we know what the 229 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 4: lasting effects of the virus have been on their economies? 230 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 2: You know what? My favorite example of this is actually 231 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:58,559 Speaker 2: swine fever in China, and this had a really interesting 232 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 2: economic effect. So China had a really bad outbreak of 233 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 2: swine fever. A lot of pigs died, and then the 234 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 2: government basically said, well, we need you to rebuild all 235 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,199 Speaker 2: your pork supplies because we don't have enough meat. Meat 236 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 2: is very expensive, and so you saw a bunch of 237 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 2: new pork companies start up business and basically say we're 238 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:22,319 Speaker 2: going to do what the government wants us to do, 239 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 2: and we're going to produce a bunch of pigs. And 240 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 2: then lo and behold, you had an explosion in pork 241 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 2: meat in China and suddenly there was too much capacity, 242 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 2: and so a bunch of these new pork companies ended 243 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 2: up failing because prices went down. Too many of them failed, 244 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 2: and then pork got expensive again, and then ever since then, 245 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 2: this has been going on for years now. You've sort 246 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 2: of seen this boom bust dynamic in China's swine industry, 247 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 2: which kind of highlights again these are difficult problems to 248 00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 2: completely eradicate, but also you can be dealing with downstow 249 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 2: stream effects for many many years. Once the economy is 250 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 2: disrupted or a particular industry is disrupted in these types 251 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 2: of ways, it can reverberate for a long time. 252 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 4: My last question for you too is have we hit 253 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 4: peak eggflation or could things get worse before they get better. 254 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 2: Certainly things can get worse before they get better. I 255 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 2: think the bigger concern is probably can they get better 256 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 2: for how long? If that makes sense. So, again, the 257 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 2: pattern that we've seen is we have these outbreaks, people 258 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 2: kind of get a handle on them, but then maybe 259 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 2: a year or a couple years later, they come back. 260 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 2: And that's a big issue for farmers over the long run. 261 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 2: You know, it's going to make the business not as profitable. 262 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 2: People might decide, you know, it's not worth it being 263 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 2: a chicken farmer anymore. And it certainly makes it difficult 264 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 2: to calibrate how much space they need, how many commercial 265 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 2: houses for chickens, how much investment they should put into 266 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 2: the business. So that's really the big difficulty. 267 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 3: People at Bloomberg would understand this. Normally, high risk business 268 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 3: has the potential for high return. Agriculture doesn't work that way. 269 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 3: High risk. You're very high risk business, but the return 270 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 3: is very low. 271 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 4: Why do you do it then? 272 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 2: Because you love it? 273 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, And as I always tell people to visit, 274 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 3: you know, if you can't stand up in the middle 275 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 3: of it today and look around you and enjoy that, 276 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 3: then you'd better not do it. 277 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 4: Well, thank you so much. 278 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 3: Jim, You're welcome. Have a good day. 279 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 4: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. 280 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 4: This episode was produced by Alex Hye and David Fox. 281 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 4: It was edited by Tracy Samuelson and Millie Mumshi. It 282 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 4: was fact checked by Adrian A. Tapia and mixed and 283 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 4: sound designed by Alex Sugia. Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. 284 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 4: Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Our executive producer is 285 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 4: Nicole beemsterbor Sat Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. If 286 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 4: you liked this episode, make sure to subscribe and review 287 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 4: The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps 288 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 4: people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back 289 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 4: next week.