Speaker 1: Drive Time with Travis Wingfield begins.
Speaker 2: Now let me check your pulse if you're not for
Speaker 2: what is up? Dolphins?
Speaker 3: And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast, part of the
Speaker 3: Miami Dolphins podcast network covering your team, your Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 2: How's it going everybody?
Speaker 3: I am your host, Travis Wingfield And on today's show,
Speaker 3: I'm fired up for this one.
Speaker 2: I got really into the Weeds.
Speaker 3: So it's going to be a dense Dolphins Bills matchup
Speaker 3: preview as we shift our focus to a team we
Speaker 3: know all too well in those rival Buffalo Bills. We'll
Speaker 3: preview the big matchup for AFC E supremacy at the
Speaker 3: quarter point of the season. Tell you why this game
Speaker 3: is so crucial, Key matchups, key numbers, big storylines, much
Speaker 3: much more. From the Baptist Health Studios inside the Baptist
Speaker 3: Health Training Complex. This is the Draft Time Podcast. Maggie gaff.
Speaker 2: I would like to give Coach.
Speaker 3: The opening line here he was asked about motivation for
Speaker 3: this game? Was last next year's disappointing ending to these guys,
Speaker 3: two losses up there in their building inside of one month?
Speaker 3: Was that motivation for this game? Here's Coach went back
Speaker 3: to the check your pulse.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, I think division opponents and like you know,
Speaker 1: you have what what what's been really uh, I don't know,
Speaker 1: probably under talked about, is an opponent of this caliber
Speaker 1: coming off and I mean nine sack, five turnover day.
Speaker 1: If you need to be motivated for a game like this,
Speaker 1: check your pulse or maybe consider a career adjustment. So
Speaker 1: in terms of revent, I mean, I don't think when
Speaker 1: you when you're playing an a quality opponent in your
Speaker 1: division like that, there's always going to be you know,
Speaker 1: it's the Bills. It's a Bills game, is the way
Speaker 1: you know, it feels to us, And they have earned
Speaker 1: the right to be the division champion for several years
Speaker 1: and they continue to play at a high level. So
Speaker 1: you know, I think it's a very very difficult challenge
Speaker 1: that I think our players are pumped for because you
Speaker 1: sign up to to play the best and I think
Speaker 1: they fit that.
Speaker 2: And it is Buffalo Bills week.
Speaker 3: We get two of these, or got two of these
Speaker 3: last year in their building and both games were right
Speaker 3: there for us. So when you look at what these
Speaker 3: two teams did this offseason, it was about did Miami
Speaker 3: do enough to close the gap. Did Buffalo do it
Speaker 3: enough to take that jump to the next step, And
Speaker 3: we had our squad at about as full strength as
Speaker 3: you can ask in that December game, I know we
Speaker 3: had a lot of attrition on the offensive line in
Speaker 3: the defensive backfield, but two, it wasn't there right, not
Speaker 3: the same story in January and played in that game.
Speaker 3: There's no doubt Miami runs away with that contest. But still,
Speaker 3: even if there was a four game gap by the
Speaker 3: end of the season thirteen compared to nine wins, I
Speaker 3: think the context shows you these teams were much closer
Speaker 3: than that last year, as the results were similar in
Speaker 3: the end, even if the route to get to those
Speaker 3: final scores up in Buffalo, you know, three point losses
Speaker 3: were not similar. One was all takeaways and defensive scores
Speaker 3: and the other one was offense going up another field.
Speaker 3: So it was competitive right down to the very end
Speaker 3: in both those games. And one of the reasons I
Speaker 3: feel confident picking the Dolphins to win this division this
Speaker 3: year was that Buffalo just didn't do a lot to
Speaker 3: improve their roster from an offseason acquisition standpoint, while Miami
Speaker 3: did a ton. Evident by what you've seen on the
Speaker 3: offensive line, with five good players opposed to three. The
Speaker 3: backfield's a lot better, the receivers are better, the defense
Speaker 3: is better, even if it's not actually good yet. Just
Speaker 3: wait for a few weeks and number five comes back.
Speaker 3: The Bills big ads Connor McGovern, Trent Sherfield, Damian Harris,
Speaker 3: Taylor Rapp one of those guys as a starter. On
Speaker 3: the other side, they didn't lose a whole lot. The
Speaker 3: only real notable was Tremaine Edmonds. But they just didn't
Speaker 3: add to last year's recipe. And I guess they were
Speaker 3: a thirteen win team, so they have that to fall
Speaker 3: back on. But I read, I read too frequently, as
Speaker 3: I give you that shpiel this summer, the Buffalo's window
Speaker 3: was closing, and that's just nonsense, Like, don't think that, please,
Speaker 3: because you're gonna be disappointed if you think that they're
Speaker 3: one of the five best teams in the NFL right now.
Speaker 3: I think I would put them just outside the top
Speaker 3: four with Kate, with us KC, Dallas and Philly and
Speaker 3: McDaniel made the point an oppresser a while back that
Speaker 3: I found interesting. He talked about the advantages of having
Speaker 3: a really good division you play in and sure enough,
Speaker 3: each of the last two years, these Super Bowl representatives
Speaker 3: from each conference came from divisions that had two and
Speaker 3: three teams, with the Eagles with the Giants and Cowboys
Speaker 3: last year in Kansas City, last year with Los Angeles
Speaker 3: making the playoffs, and then twenty twenty one, the Steelers
Speaker 3: joined the Bengals in the playoffs and the four nine
Speaker 3: Ers and Cardinals were in there along with the Rams
Speaker 3: back that year. And I know, it seems like we've
Speaker 3: been in a division with a twelve game winner every
Speaker 3: single year since two thousand and three, because well we
Speaker 3: have except for a year or two, with one of
Speaker 3: those being where Brady you know, tours ACL in the
Speaker 3: first quarter of the first game. So while winning a
Speaker 3: division where second place is under five hundred sounds like
Speaker 3: a little bit less stressful of a season, I think
Speaker 3: it's these types of battles that prepare you to be
Speaker 3: successful once you get to that point. Now it's still September,
Speaker 3: so chill on all that talk, right, And I have
Speaker 3: to do a better job of reminding myself as well,
Speaker 3: because you never know what can happen in this league.
Speaker 3: But I bring it back up because these are tests
Speaker 3: that I think the team will look back on and
Speaker 3: be thankful they were part of. I mean, we get
Speaker 3: to go to Buffalo, to Philly and some version of
Speaker 3: a road game with Kansas City Eldos in Germany, and
Speaker 3: finish the year with three teams that I expect to
Speaker 3: be in the postseason with Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo if
Speaker 3: we make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: When we make the playoffs, when we.
Speaker 3: Get there, we're going to have played six or seven
Speaker 3: games against teams that I personally believe will not just
Speaker 3: be in the tournament come January, but be factors and
Speaker 3: actual contenders to make the run all the way. So
Speaker 3: you'll have massive games along the way. And that got
Speaker 3: sideways a little bit, but I think it tracks with
Speaker 3: the intro here because you've heard me do this so
Speaker 3: many times now with the Buffalo Bills, you don't have
Speaker 3: to have me repeat the spiel. In twenty seven team
Speaker 3: they built one of the game's best secondaries in one
Speaker 3: fell swoop by signing Poyer and Hide and drafting Tredavius White.
Speaker 3: The next year, they land their quarterback. They continue to
Speaker 3: draft pretty well and that had become the foundation of
Speaker 3: their team, but recently quietly their draft classes have not
Speaker 3: produced a ton of hits, and that's why I say
Speaker 3: I don't think this team has gotten much better from
Speaker 3: what they were in twenty twenty one, and the dolphins
Speaker 3: continuous trajectory bodes well for closing that gap. It has
Speaker 3: left them relatively thin Buffalo on the offensive line. I
Speaker 3: think it's better than it was last year because of
Speaker 3: some incumbents improving. But they're also like super thinn at
Speaker 3: wide receiver once you get beyond Stefan Diggs and the
Speaker 3: second level of their defense. I mean, aside from the
Speaker 3: three guys I mentioned, got to be concerned about what.
Speaker 2: You might have back there.
Speaker 3: I have two rabbit hats we're gonna don in that
Speaker 3: defensive back seven. We'll stay tuned for more of that
Speaker 3: here later on. But they're a great example of something
Speaker 3: I believe, you don't have to win a championship to
Speaker 3: be a successful team. And you might come at me
Speaker 3: and say that's a loser mentality.
Speaker 2: Whatever.
Speaker 3: Man, They've won thirteen, eleven and thirteen games the last
Speaker 3: three years. They've won four playoff games over those three years,
Speaker 3: and yes, it sets up for a crushing end of
Speaker 3: the season. But if I told you right now that
Speaker 3: Miami would average more than twelve wins per year over
Speaker 3: the next three seasons and win four playoff games. I'm
Speaker 3: pretty sure ninety nine percent of you would sign up
Speaker 3: for that right now. Maybe you wouldn't take it with
Speaker 3: the caveat that we lose a Super Bowl or whatever
Speaker 3: or don't get one at all, but I think you
Speaker 3: would take that if you didn't know the end result
Speaker 3: of those playoff trips.
Speaker 2: So the Buffalo Bills have made some changes.
Speaker 3: Leslie Frazier is out at DC, which means Sean McDermott
Speaker 3: has taken back over the play calling. I think it's
Speaker 3: worked pretty well so far. You're going to learn a
Speaker 3: theme throughout this podcast. The Buffalo's defense looks great, but
Speaker 3: they've played Sam Howell, They've played Jimmy Garoppolo, who looks
Speaker 3: like not the same Groppolo we saw on Kyle Shanahan's offense,
Speaker 3: and they also played Zach Wilson. So yeah, you know,
Speaker 3: we'll talk about that more in the next matchup in
Speaker 3: personnel deployment section. But this is a defense that has
Speaker 3: put the absolute clamps on those first three opponents.
Speaker 2: What are those teams going to be this year?
Speaker 3: We'll see, but I think it's safe to say they
Speaker 3: have not seen an attack quite to Miami's standard. When
Speaker 3: they protect the football on offense, they are as dangerous
Speaker 3: as anybody. We've seen Josh Allen struggle when teams play
Speaker 3: those high shells and force him to be patient. If
Speaker 3: it doesn't click right away, he can start to get
Speaker 3: really out in front of the skis and attack situations
Speaker 3: that just are not, you know, profitable for the offense.
Speaker 3: Now that said, I thought he was at his best
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty one doing that, and I thought that
Speaker 3: last year they felt the impact of Brian Dable exiting
Speaker 3: to take the head coaching job with the Giants. And
Speaker 3: we'll see if Ken Dorsey can you know, put together
Speaker 3: a more consistent offense and year number two together. But
Speaker 3: I think this game, I think it should be a
Speaker 3: tight game. I think there's routes to victory for both teams.
Speaker 3: I think there's things the Buffalo can do to attack
Speaker 3: potential vulnerabilities of Miami, and I just think we're looking
Speaker 3: at one of the game's best of the season on
Speaker 3: the schedule so far. In fact, I think it is
Speaker 3: the best matchup we've seen through four weeks in terms
Speaker 3: of rivalry, talent, and importance in the standings. And again,
Speaker 3: I know this won't be received super well, but this
Speaker 3: game is more important for them than it is for us.
Speaker 3: And I say that thinking like it's pretty important for
Speaker 3: us too. But if they win, we'll have the same
Speaker 3: record and a chance to get them back here at
Speaker 3: home in Week eighteen. And if the Dolphins are as
Speaker 3: good as we all think they are, that game will
Speaker 3: be at least for some divisional implications, right, they'll have
Speaker 3: that attached to it if they're as good as we
Speaker 3: think they are.
Speaker 2: Now, if the.
Speaker 3: Dolphins win, then yeah, it does shift the landscape quite drastically.
Speaker 3: And that's why I think it's more important for Buffalo,
Speaker 3: because a loss to them kind of derails them more
Speaker 3: than a loss to US would, not saying it ends
Speaker 3: their season, but a two game lead with that future
Speaker 3: home date in Week eighteen, two divisional losses on the
Speaker 3: books for Buffalo and what would amount to a two
Speaker 3: and a half game deficit against US just four games in,
Speaker 3: when their final six games are like Dallas, Cincinnati, KSE
Speaker 3: US and like Baltimore. I forget exactly who it is,
Speaker 3: but they have a murderer's row down the stretch. So
Speaker 3: if you can get this one, you're basically putting yourself
Speaker 3: in position to be either ahead or with any striking
Speaker 3: distance when you get to that stretch of the late
Speaker 3: part of the season, and that would be massive for
Speaker 3: us obviously. But then also that's why it's important for them,
Speaker 3: because they cannot afford to go into that hole. We
Speaker 3: can afford the results of a loss, although I do
Speaker 3: not want to, because if you win this game, things
Speaker 3: get very, very fun.
Speaker 2: It's supposed to be a beautiful day in Buffalo.
Speaker 3: I didn't know this existed, but apparently they do this
Speaker 3: time around right around seventy degrees sunshine. And before we
Speaker 3: talk about the storylines, I asked Mike McDaniel, what are
Speaker 3: some lessons you can take from those two games last
Speaker 3: winter up in Buffalo and apply to this year.
Speaker 1: Here's coach, you use them for knowing what the experience
Speaker 1: be like. On the surface level, what you do know
Speaker 1: is that they're gonna play very hard and together, and
Speaker 1: they're not going to give anything away, so you have
Speaker 1: to earn them. It is a different team, so you
Speaker 1: have to take that with a grain of salt. But
Speaker 1: I think you know that. Being so it was the
Speaker 1: last game that we played in twenty twenty two, which
Speaker 1: I think technically was twenty three, and you know, it
Speaker 1: was a hard fought loss down the stretch of the season,
Speaker 1: and those things they do live with you in terms
Speaker 1: of what that felt like, and so to me, it
Speaker 1: really represents the idea of what we have to kind
Speaker 1: of the p's and the cues that we have to
Speaker 1: be on to have of a result that's different than
Speaker 1: the one last year, which well, I know, one thing
Speaker 1: to even to even conceive that you have to it's
Speaker 1: gonna have to be earned. And that's a cool thing
Speaker 1: about what they do is they make you earn every inch.
Speaker 1: So it will take a group effort for sixty minutes,
Speaker 1: there's no doubt in that.
Speaker 3: Before we take that first break and break down Dolphins
Speaker 3: offense versus Buffalo defense. Some storylines here that three games
Speaker 3: and twenty twenty two were all decided by three points
Speaker 3: or a fewer. Of course, the Dolphins win twenty one
Speaker 3: to nineteen. Down here when Josh Allen skipped a pretty
Speaker 3: easy fastball to the turf. Week number fifteen, Dolphins lose
Speaker 3: thirty two to twenty nine, despite having the football up
Speaker 3: by a touchdown in the fourth quarter and scoring range
Speaker 3: Ah that one hurt the wild card round loss thirty
Speaker 3: four to thirty one. Buffalo wins that after Miami had
Speaker 3: the ball at midfield with a round two minutes to
Speaker 3: go and could not convert, although they misspoted the football
Speaker 3: and third down and really boned us there. Previous Bills
Speaker 3: dominance in the series also a big storyline. Prior to
Speaker 3: last year, the Bills had beaten the Dolphins, break the
Speaker 3: breaks off the Dolphins. They swept him in twenty twenty
Speaker 3: one with a point differential of plus fifty, and that
Speaker 3: was the biggest reason I thought we had to, you know,
Speaker 3: go get someone like Mike because Buffalo ran rough shot
Speaker 3: over us every year in the previous regime. Prior to
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, Buffalo had won seven straight with an
Speaker 3: average margin of nineteen point three points. I think that
Speaker 3: dominance is long gone. We'll see about Josh Allen's That's
Speaker 3: a big test for this defense here a Vic Fangio
Speaker 3: potential masterclass Fangio versus Allen. How can he match up
Speaker 3: against an elite quarterback like this? Because Allen has ran
Speaker 3: for a billion yards, He's thrown for a billion touchdowns.
Speaker 3: He's posted dubs on us and he versus Christian Wilkins.
Speaker 3: He's gotten the better of that in terms of the
Speaker 3: team's success, but I do think that Christian's ability to
Speaker 3: get into his head's always fun to watch. He drew
Speaker 3: a penalty on Allen last year in the home game
Speaker 3: and should have had another one in the playoff game
Speaker 3: when Josh Allen went to full you know, B mode
Speaker 3: when he freeked doubt on Wilkins and got knocked over
Speaker 3: because he tried to block him and then tried to
Speaker 3: throw a punch or whatever, not a punch, but trying
Speaker 3: to get into his face, and then walked away when
Speaker 3: he realized he wasn't getting the better of that. The
Speaker 3: number one offense first, the number two defense again. The
Speaker 3: Bills moved from Fraser to McDermott taking over play calling,
Speaker 3: but the second year of play calling Harry McDaniel's offense
Speaker 3: has been a huge boon, the way they've added wrinkles
Speaker 3: off of their different packages and looks and dressed things up.
Speaker 3: I cannot wait to watch them attack this defense this
Speaker 3: time around, because I think in both the games last year,
Speaker 3: and you know, having a third string quarterback didn't really
Speaker 3: let this manifest, but the first game with Tua, they
Speaker 3: had the Bills defense and some hell there, and of
Speaker 3: course the elements kind of came into play late there.
Speaker 3: But I think Miami's ability to take that tape and
Speaker 3: expand upon it, with their quarterback playing better than any
Speaker 3: quarterback in the NFL right now, could be a big
Speaker 3: benefit for this team. Scoring another thirty forty points in
Speaker 3: this one, and then again the importance of the game
Speaker 3: if we win. You know you heard the the ramifications
Speaker 3: two game lead, the head to head tiebreaker divisional loss
Speaker 3: for the Bills will be number two. Miami would have
Speaker 3: two road divisional wins and four wins in the conference. Like,
Speaker 3: you're putting a pretty good stranglehold on the tie breaking
Speaker 3: scenarios if you go get this one, especially with that
Speaker 3: loss of the Jets is so big, man, because we
Speaker 3: have two games against the Jets coming up in November
Speaker 3: and December. And do you really think that Trevor Simeon
Speaker 3: or Zach Wilson or Tim Boyle can match points to
Speaker 3: this offense. I don't, so I put those and then
Speaker 3: a Patriots game at home, Like I kind of think Miami,
Speaker 3: I have a pretty good feeling. Miami's going to if
Speaker 3: they win this game, go into the final Buffalo game
Speaker 3: five and zero the division. So if they lose at
Speaker 3: four and one and then you would still if you
Speaker 3: just win one against Buffalo, that Jets loss is your tiebreaker.
Speaker 2: So Miami essentially gets.
Speaker 3: A game advantage in the division race because of that
Speaker 3: potential tie breaking scenario.
Speaker 2: So massive. No trophy's gonna be handed out this week.
Speaker 3: No seasons will be ended either, but it's still a
Speaker 3: huge game with huge playoff implications. Let's go ahead and
Speaker 3: take our first break and comeback on the other side
Speaker 3: and break this matchup down.
Speaker 2: I have a lot of notes in this one.
Speaker 3: I spent forty eight hours really kind of watching film
Speaker 3: and comparing this one. That's next Draft Time podcast, your
Speaker 3: host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by AutoNation.
Speaker 2: You guys know the.
Speaker 3: Scene in Moneyball when Brad Pitt asked Jonah Hill about
Speaker 3: the rite ups he asked him to do, and he
Speaker 3: asked him for like eight ride ups, and Jonah Hill said,
Speaker 3: I did forty seven, and then he goes, I lied,
Speaker 3: I did fifty three.
Speaker 2: I don't know why I lied. Just now that's me
Speaker 2: right now, I watched every Bills game.
Speaker 3: I went back through PFF data from last year from
Speaker 3: this year and was just really into this matchup because
Speaker 3: I want to win it, and it's fun covering a
Speaker 3: team that's this damn good.
Speaker 2: Precious field trip. That's a little Chris Farley on Billy
Speaker 2: Madison for you.
Speaker 3: On a deep cut, Let's talk about Dolphins offense versus
Speaker 3: the Buffalo Bills defense. You know by now the Dolphins lineup,
Speaker 3: how the Bills match up with that, our quarterback safety matchup,
Speaker 3: you know the drill. Poyer and Hyde have both played
Speaker 3: eighty eight percent plus of the snaps, and they've introduced
Speaker 3: a new third safety formerly of the Rams and Washington Huskies,
Speaker 3: Taylor Rapp has played twenty three percent of their snaps.
Speaker 3: I think you might see more of him this week
Speaker 3: because of the pensity. We might see of three safety packages,
Speaker 3: maybe some dime defense. I mean, the Bills never get
Speaker 3: out of their Nichols, so we'll find out about that.
Speaker 3: But those are the three guys they use the most.
Speaker 3: Christian Benford as their top corner right now one hundred
Speaker 3: percent of the snaps, White Tradevius has played ninety one
Speaker 3: and then nobody else over eight. So if you get
Speaker 3: one injury here, you're introducing a player who just.
Speaker 2: Has not played at all this season.
Speaker 3: Something to keep an eye on, as Dolphins tend to
Speaker 3: have a way of making cornerback skill a little bit
Speaker 3: tight in the hamstring area. Not advocating that, I'm just
Speaker 3: saying like it's something to the keeping eye because the
Speaker 3: depth there is thin. And the slot Barrio Smyth and
Speaker 3: Julian Hill, who had a great debut last week, up
Speaker 3: against Taron Johnson who's played seventy eight percent of the snaps.
Speaker 3: He might be their best player on defense. He's awesome,
Speaker 3: but I also think that his presence makes them play
Speaker 3: a defense that I just doesn't make a lot of
Speaker 3: sense to me. We'll talk more about that. On the interior,
Speaker 3: Williams win and Hunt up against Oliver who played sixty
Speaker 3: five percent of the snaps this year, Daikwan Jones fifty.
Speaker 3: You guys remember Jordan Phillips thirty four percent this year.
Speaker 3: Then Tim Settle thirty one percent. Off the edge will
Speaker 3: get more Armstead and Austin Jackson with Gregory Russeau has
Speaker 3: played sixty percent of the snaps. We got the right
Speaker 3: cane there, Shaq loss and you guys know him. He
Speaker 3: and Leonard Floyd have both played forty seven percent of
Speaker 3: their snaps, and then aj Epinesa forty one and then
Speaker 3: that linebacker. Both Milano and Terrel Bernard have played ninety
Speaker 3: one percent of Buffalo snaps. So they have varied mixtures
Speaker 3: of edge interior players that you can see there. Like
Speaker 3: all those percentage that gave you, guys, it's pretty varied.
Speaker 3: Milano and Bernard play the exact same number of reps,
Speaker 3: and the dbs are essentially always the same. Again, Rap
Speaker 3: is the only defensive back that comes into the game
Speaker 3: aside from those top five guys I mentioned, and then
Speaker 3: you have eight guys up front who play a lot
Speaker 3: because are a lot of numbers there for several guys. Stylistically,
Speaker 3: it's mostly like power and strength type of players compared
Speaker 3: to like speed guys. That's Oliver his game, although he's
Speaker 3: got really good.
Speaker 2: Quicks as well. But Rousseau wants to win.
Speaker 3: With his length in a secondary move and I think
Speaker 3: Miami has the pieces equipped to handle him. Shaq Lawson
Speaker 3: and aj Epanessa, I don't think they're scaring anybody in
Speaker 3: their rush department. I mean I thought Epanes would have
Speaker 3: more of a career in loss and you know, since
Speaker 3: he left here hasn't made a big splash. But they
Speaker 3: are peer power players that want to play through you.
Speaker 3: And then Floyd has the most juice, I think, but
Speaker 3: he's like in his thirties at this point. And then
Speaker 3: Phillips is super quick inside and Settle is a tree trunks.
Speaker 3: They have a bit of varied usage there, so they
Speaker 3: have that mixture of what they can do to beat you.
Speaker 3: But I think Miami with their run game disguise, can
Speaker 3: really take advantage of these guys in their overplay because
Speaker 3: they're aggressive. They want a one gap and get upfield,
Speaker 3: and right now, the way our offensive line's going, I
Speaker 3: just give them them a great chance to solidify their
Speaker 3: strong start with a proven defense and go whip a
Speaker 3: Bills front that they whipped last year in that second
Speaker 3: game up in December. As far as their personnel usage,
Speaker 3: there's no need to break down their grouping by grouping
Speaker 3: usage here because if you listen to the podcast regularly.
Speaker 2: You already know what you're gonna get.
Speaker 3: Ninety eight point six percent Nickel deployment. That's five defensive
Speaker 3: backs with six up in your front part of the formation,
Speaker 3: and that usually leads to light boxes. It's one hundred
Speaker 3: percent on third and fourth down, so that means that
Speaker 3: they're playing it on first down ninety eight point five
Speaker 3: percent of the time and ninety eight percent on second down.
Speaker 3: They almost never get out of nickel, although there are
Speaker 3: some base looks mixed in there, like I mentioned, so
Speaker 3: you know you're gonna get defensively on rush plays. This
Speaker 3: is so fascinating to me. They have six in the box.
Speaker 3: It's a very like sevens a light box, but six
Speaker 3: is a super light box. Against the running game, they
Speaker 3: have thirty snaps and seven in the box on fourteen
Speaker 3: snaps and then eight down the box, which is a
Speaker 3: heavy box just seven times. So they're saying we want
Speaker 3: you to try to run the ball with one on
Speaker 3: one hat on a hat matchup that you we don't
Speaker 3: have enough guys to fit the gaps you can play with.
Speaker 3: And on those forty four carries against light boxes, teams
Speaker 3: have a rush success rate of sixty three percent and
Speaker 3: have produced three hundred and eight yards that's seven yards
Speaker 3: of clip guys fifty five of the fifty six rush
Speaker 3: attempts against the Bills. This year came when they were
Speaker 3: in their nickel defense, and the results are fifty five
Speaker 3: for three thirty three six point one per carry. That
Speaker 3: sounds like what Miami's doing to teams. And go back
Speaker 3: and watch the game in Buffalo with two of last year.
Speaker 3: It's an alec ingold game. He's going to kick their ass.
Speaker 3: He's going to help us run the ball for two
Speaker 3: hundred yards and I'm sure there's going to be some
Speaker 3: wrinkles that generate from that in the passing game to
Speaker 3: play the overplay because Buffalo knows this, they know they
Speaker 3: have to be aggressive and make sure that we stop
Speaker 3: our running backs and our tracks because you're also simply
Speaker 3: not just gonna go away from Tyreek and Waddle and
Speaker 3: just let them wilt on the sideline. So I cannot
Speaker 3: wait to see what McDaniel's response to the response is
Speaker 3: because he's been the best in the league at that
Speaker 3: this year. And also those safeties they have, they are
Speaker 3: a step slower this year. In fact, that defense might
Speaker 3: be one of the slower defenses in football. That's not
Speaker 3: a good matchup there. They're thirty three and thirty two
Speaker 3: years old, and so moster are in a chain speed.
Speaker 3: The anglely racing. If you get a big play, you
Speaker 3: might get to maximize it and take it all the
Speaker 3: way to Pagert Same with Reek and Waddle. Remember cooked
Speaker 3: Tredavius White on that twenty five yard touchdown catch last
Speaker 3: year and Waddle went for like sixty eight or whatever
Speaker 3: it was where he ran by everybody. I know it
Speaker 3: wasn't the same two safeties, but those guys, in terms
Speaker 3: of next gen stats, are not any faster. I think
Speaker 3: if you look at the matchup as a way to
Speaker 3: get your offensive production, you know, consistent ground game, explosive plays,
Speaker 3: but you do need better conversions on third down and
Speaker 3: in the red zone. We had two drops in the
Speaker 3: end zone last year. Sherfield and Tyreek dropped easy touchdowns
Speaker 3: that led to a field goal. That's four points you
Speaker 3: left on the board and you lost by three. We
Speaker 3: also failed on third and short four times. Flip the
Speaker 3: script there, convert two of those, extend two drives. That's
Speaker 3: more points. I think, score the touchdown, that's four more points.
Speaker 3: I think you can find thirty plus points pretty easily.
Speaker 3: Scored twenty nine in that game even with those shortcomings.
Speaker 3: And if they get you in third and long, well
Speaker 3: that's where they really excel and maximizing that nickel package
Speaker 3: where they have a swarm of players who can come
Speaker 3: or drop and really muddy up your protection. The Dolphins
Speaker 3: have been stellar this year, iding and keying and finding
Speaker 3: the blitz because the quarterback has been phenomenal at finding
Speaker 3: holes in their pass rush with if they go drop seven,
Speaker 3: drop eight, I mean, let's be real. Defense has been
Speaker 3: elite at everything they've done this year. As far as
Speaker 3: the Bills defense third down defense this year, I think
Speaker 3: these numbers are very skewed because of their opponents, but whatever,
Speaker 3: thirty one percent on third down third and seven plus
Speaker 3: teams are three for fourteen on them compared to six
Speaker 3: of fifteen and third and medium in short, so third
Speaker 3: and long is a non starter for opposing offenses that
Speaker 3: have Sam Howell and Zach Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo. Their
Speaker 3: blitz rate is seventeen point two percent. They have two
Speaker 3: picks three sacks on fifteen dropbacks against the blitz, but
Speaker 3: they have allowed seven for twelve for seventy seven yards,
Speaker 3: So they create chaos when they go to that blitz package.
Speaker 3: Not very unlike Vic Fangio, their non blitz pressure seventy
Speaker 3: two plays. They create pressure when they don't blitz seventy
Speaker 3: two times five picks and nine sack.
Speaker 2: That's really good. You have to avoid that.
Speaker 3: Overall, they have a thirty percent pressure rate and that's
Speaker 3: twelve point eight percentage higher than their blitz rate. That's
Speaker 3: a very good number for a defense to have. So
Speaker 3: it's a good defense. But again, their opposition, I don't
Speaker 3: know all that. What does that tell you? Super super aggressive defense,
Speaker 3: and they have to be because they're not that fast.
Speaker 3: It's driven by a great middle linebacker, Matt Mulano. But
Speaker 3: they want to play lots of variations of too high
Speaker 3: two man and use those very intelligent safeties boy're in
Speaker 3: hide to disguise their coverage. So Tua against that I
Speaker 3: think is paramount. I mean, let's actually go ahead and
Speaker 3: hear from Mike right now, because this is a great
Speaker 3: place to interject this. He talked on Wednesday about TUIs preparation,
Speaker 3: and I think that that is the key rate. Here
Speaker 3: is how TUA deciphers what coverage they're in on a
Speaker 3: given snap.
Speaker 2: Here's coach.
Speaker 3: He was asked about Tua's enthusiasm during the last game,
Speaker 3: hyping up Mike White on the long touchdown dropping by
Speaker 3: toront Armstead's press conference postgame, but he took it further
Speaker 3: and talked about TUIs preparation where that confidence he plays
Speaker 3: what comes from because he has no doubts or regrets
Speaker 3: about the way he prepared all week long, because he's
Speaker 3: fully committed and invested. I just gave you the whole quote,
Speaker 3: but here's coachingway.
Speaker 1: Obviously he enjoys the positivity from outside looking in. But
Speaker 1: what I think is, you know, he really the source
Speaker 1: of what you're seeing is a guy that is one
Speaker 1: hundred percent prepared and committed for him to do what
Speaker 1: he has a God given skill set that's very unique
Speaker 1: and special and he's able to showcase that and has
Speaker 1: no harbors, no regrets or I should have wold I
Speaker 1: could a by his daily process. I mean he is.
Speaker 1: He is fully invested. He's every walk through that we
Speaker 1: just had to walk through, every walkthrough. It's not like
Speaker 1: he's he's in a great mood joking around. He is
Speaker 1: so focused. And that's what you know. The kind of
Speaker 1: vision is for a lot of the guys is to
Speaker 1: understand how you know, we work, you prepare all week
Speaker 1: so that Sunday can be fun because that is you,
Speaker 1: That is that is a part of your identity, that man,
Speaker 1: you've earned and you should go enjoy it. And you're
Speaker 1: able to enjoy it when you're not cramming for a test.
Speaker 1: And on top of that, he's starting to see, you know,
Speaker 1: the power that that he holds at that position when
Speaker 1: you are in charge of giving the play and executing
Speaker 1: each and every play with ball handling and assignments. But
Speaker 1: what it can do for teammates, because that's that's the
Speaker 1: best thing about football is you're not you're not an
Speaker 1: independent contractor where much of life is that. Now you
Speaker 1: have a group of people that wow, the what I
Speaker 1: how I work, and then what my talents are those
Speaker 1: combined have residual effects on a lot of people's journeys.
Speaker 1: So I think he's very much leaning into and enjoying
Speaker 1: that more than any of the necessary I mean, the
Speaker 1: results are that's really cool for him. I know he's
Speaker 1: happy with that, but he's I think he's more happy
Speaker 1: with who he is as a man, as a father
Speaker 1: and his a husband and a professional athlete.
Speaker 3: And that's where these two guys hide and employer I
Speaker 3: think make their money. Their ability to show one thing
Speaker 3: and rotate to something else. They'll come down and show pressure,
Speaker 3: phantom pressure. They'll roll out, they'll double row where they
Speaker 3: both jump crossers, they'll invert where they come down and
Speaker 3: play the corner. Let the wide corners flip back and
Speaker 3: play the safety role. It's a great chest match between
Speaker 3: these two guys, and to a tongue of by low,
Speaker 3: but I just like to wear a quarterback is seeing
Speaker 3: it right now. Upfront, they want to one gap and
Speaker 3: play downhill and that could create some issues that the
Speaker 3: Dolphins can if they can do what they've been doing
Speaker 3: and craft the game plan that capitalizes on that overplay.
Speaker 3: And again it's easier said than done, but the way
Speaker 3: the Dolphins have utilized motion, crackbacks, play action, end around
Speaker 3: jet sweep action, split versus full flow, it's just a
Speaker 3: lot to deal with. Like I'm sure you're sitting there saying,
Speaker 3: what the hell did you just say? That's how opposing
Speaker 3: defenses have to react as well. And I think the
Speaker 3: combination of our line play two was released and the
Speaker 3: offensive design all kind of play equal parts. Not to
Speaker 3: mention they've put so much on tape, you have to
Speaker 3: prepare for that coach can just pull the rug out
Speaker 3: and do something completely different, and all of a sudden,
Speaker 3: you've spent two days game planning for a run game
Speaker 3: that you just never see and you know. It's a
Speaker 3: big part of why I think Tua is the least
Speaker 3: pressured quarterback in football. His stats really shine a light
Speaker 3: on his ability. He has the second lowest pressure to
Speaker 3: sack rate at four point five percent. Only Mahomes is lower,
Speaker 3: and the third place quarterback in that regards eight point
Speaker 3: five percent. So he is again like he is most
Speaker 3: stats besides Mahomes here lapping the field and how he
Speaker 3: gets away from pressure. The Bills pressures by individual nothing
Speaker 3: pops off the tape here. Oliver has ten that leads
Speaker 3: the team. Rousseau, Floyd, and Daikwan Jones all have eight. Epanessa, Lawston,
Speaker 3: and Phillips all have five, and that goes back to
Speaker 3: what coach and about how they play as a team together.
Speaker 2: Very true.
Speaker 3: Bernard and Milano both have two. They're off ball linebackers,
Speaker 3: only nineteen pass rush reps among them. Not a frequently
Speaker 3: blitzing team, the fourth lowest rate in the National Football League.
Speaker 3: But getting at Oliver blocked inside to me is the
Speaker 3: key of this entire group as far as run stops.
Speaker 3: Bernard leads in with nine, Oliver and Milano both has six,
Speaker 3: Jones has five or so, and Floyd have four, and
Speaker 3: then Johnson, Ployer, and Hide all have three. And that's
Speaker 3: interesting to me because those three guys having nine, those
Speaker 3: safeties are the ones that have to come down and
Speaker 3: support the run game because they just do not line
Speaker 3: up with enough hats and gaps in terms of their
Speaker 3: front seven. Those guys have to be solid against the run.
Speaker 3: If Raheem Moster devon Ah Chain makes those guys miss,
Speaker 3: they're not going to have a good time. It's interesting
Speaker 3: because I think these teams are constructed relatively similarly in
Speaker 3: that the offense can score by the time you finished blinking,
Speaker 3: and ideally they get you behind big early in the
Speaker 3: scoreboard and make you one dimensional. The Bills were able
Speaker 3: to do that against the Commanders and Raiders the last
Speaker 3: two weeks and just bullied and battered them on third downs.
Speaker 3: Commanders were one for nine on third down, ran the
Speaker 3: ball just thirteen times, but it did go for one
Speaker 3: hundred and five yards, So that furthers the point that
Speaker 3: if you can run the ball volume, you can get
Speaker 3: your stats, sustained drives and score points. The Raiders went
Speaker 3: three for seven on third downs, but they had just
Speaker 3: thirteen first downs compared to Buffalo's twenty nine and could
Speaker 3: only run the ball fifteen times as a result, picking
Speaker 3: up just fifty five yards in the process. They also
Speaker 3: turned it over three times, which is obviously a problem.
Speaker 3: But go back to Week one, and this game is
Speaker 3: a bit of an anomaly because Allen had four turnovers
Speaker 3: in that one and it kept the Jets and Zach
Speaker 3: Wilson in the game. But because the score was so close,
Speaker 3: the Jets ran twenty eight times for a buck seventy
Speaker 3: two and they were five for thirteen on third downs.
Speaker 3: Not great, but considering the quarterback in the game, who
Speaker 3: can't complete a pass in this league, that's pretty.
Speaker 2: Good for them.
Speaker 3: Anytime you look at opposing units, you try to figure
Speaker 3: out the guys outside the all pros, right Channing Crowder
Speaker 3: always tells a story about when he got to Miami,
Speaker 3: it was Zach j T Junior.
Speaker 2: Sam Who do you think they're going to attack Crowder?
Speaker 3: It's you. You get the rabbit hat. In Buffalo, you
Speaker 3: look at Hyde, Poyer, White, Malano Tarron Johnson. Really the
Speaker 3: entire defensive line, and you look at the guys who
Speaker 3: don't have those, and you're gonna call me crazy here,
Speaker 3: but I'm gonna pick out two players where I put
Speaker 3: the rabbit hat. Number one's Christian Benford, a sixth round
Speaker 3: draft pick who beat out first round pick kayri Elam
Speaker 3: who never sees the field at cornerback, and second year
Speaker 3: linebacker last year's Defensive Player of the Week Terrell Bernard.
Speaker 3: Why am I doing that? Because both those guys are
Speaker 3: playing well. Bernard had a ton of splash plays last week,
Speaker 3: got that award for himself. He also leads the team
Speaker 3: in run stops, and they completed nine of twelve passes
Speaker 3: on him for ninety eight yards on seventy seven coverage snaps,
Speaker 3: throwing at him. That's exactly why right there. He is
Speaker 3: very instinctive. He wants to play downhill. I think Miami
Speaker 3: uses that to their advantage. I think they involve the
Speaker 3: running backs in the passing game on him and go
Speaker 3: after him. I think they also go after Benford, who
Speaker 3: has given up just sixty eight yards on ninety four
Speaker 3: coverage snaps. But you know, I know one yard per
Speaker 3: coverge snap is great and he's well below that, but
Speaker 3: watch the tape.
Speaker 2: This is a damn good unit.
Speaker 3: Terran Johnson does what he always does, fifty three yards
Speaker 3: and eighty one snaps. He's just so smooth in his transitions.
Speaker 3: I think they'll really try to let him win when
Speaker 3: we put our spiad merchants inside. But even then, do
Speaker 3: you ever feel good about going one on one against
Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell. I wouldn't they play super aggressive?
Speaker 3: They go a light box and then challenge you on
Speaker 3: the outside and try to get home with four Milano
Speaker 3: one of the best cover backers of the last decade
Speaker 3: or so, so you might not be able to get
Speaker 3: much from the backs on him. But I think you
Speaker 3: do go after Bernard that way, and I think it's
Speaker 3: why you attack with the commitment to the running game
Speaker 3: to force their structure to move downhill and create that
Speaker 3: space in the passing game behind it. And it made
Speaker 3: me curious to watch how teams who operate heavily in
Speaker 3: twelve or twenty one personnel fair against this defense that
Speaker 3: is exclusively a nickel defense. We were one of the
Speaker 3: top teams in that regard last year at the number
Speaker 3: one non eleven personnel offenses, and with Tua in the game,
Speaker 3: we averaged six point three six yards per play against
Speaker 3: Buffalo they allowed five point one. On the season, they
Speaker 3: faced two of the other teams who were in top
Speaker 3: five of non eleven personnel packages. What that means is
Speaker 3: there's more tight ends of running backs in the field
Speaker 3: than typical. The Niners were the only team they did
Speaker 3: not see who fit that criteria, but Baltimore and Minnesota
Speaker 3: were on their schedule, and Minnesota averaged six point oh
Speaker 3: eight yards per play, Baltimore just four point sixty three.
Speaker 3: But the four team totals versus Buffalo from that group
Speaker 3: last year fourteen hundred yards on two hundred and thirty
Speaker 3: eight plays. It was good for five point eight six
Speaker 3: yards per play compared to four point eight nine yards
Speaker 3: per play otherwise about a full yard more. So you
Speaker 3: can see why it's a big difference there. Stylistically, they
Speaker 3: play seventy one percent zone versus twenty nine percent man,
Speaker 3: so they're not gonna let Tyree and Jalen Ren and
Speaker 3: man cover John them all day. Single high is just
Speaker 3: is the thirtieth lowest in the NFL, and they run
Speaker 3: split safety fifty two percent of the time. That's the
Speaker 3: second highest in the league. And they played the most
Speaker 3: bump and run, which is a lot of two man
Speaker 3: man under half half zone that's typically beat by middle
Speaker 3: of the field shots, the deep ball to Wattle last
Speaker 3: year on both games that I should say, honey hole
Speaker 3: shots to the perimeter, and also the running game. I
Speaker 3: think we've shown proficiency in all those categories to provide
Speaker 3: problems for this Bill's defense. And the more I about this,
Speaker 3: the more I think I just like the Dolphins in
Speaker 3: this game so much because I think Buffalo's defense is
Speaker 3: very good, but I think it's propped up by those
Speaker 3: teams they've played, and the best offenses just don't get stopped.
Speaker 2: Not in today's league.
Speaker 3: Your best bet is to keep the roof on and
Speaker 3: try to make us kick field goals in the red zone.
Speaker 3: Nobody better at that in the league than the Patriots,
Speaker 3: and we are two missed field goals away from breaking
Speaker 3: thirty in that game as well. Now I think Buffalo
Speaker 3: is going to do it differently. I think you're gonna
Speaker 3: see light boxes, no blitzing, and uber aggressive corner play.
Speaker 3: And the issue there to go back to Christian Benford
Speaker 3: and Tredivious White is White wants no part of bump
Speaker 3: and run against Tyreek and Jalen. They cooked him last
Speaker 3: year with that, and then go watch Benford and rerouting.
Speaker 3: It's the biggest weakness in his game. So he likes
Speaker 3: to grab two so penalties some shots to those two receivers.
Speaker 3: I think we run the ball for six plus yards
Speaker 3: per carry. I think we attack vertically and hit some
Speaker 3: deep shots on this defense and force them out of
Speaker 3: that to go back to, you know, keep the shell
Speaker 3: on and play ball underneath. I think we can top
Speaker 3: thirty and push for forty in this game. Can we
Speaker 3: hold the Bills under that? Let's go ahead and take
Speaker 3: a break and comeback on the side and find out.
Speaker 3: Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you
Speaker 3: by I don't know you took up the entire allotment
Speaker 3: of the show on Dolphins offense first Bill's defense. So
Speaker 3: go ahead and finish up here on the other side.
Speaker 3: And it starts obviously with Josh Allen.
Speaker 2: He does not leave the field. The receivers.
Speaker 3: Tefon Diggs has played eighty percent this year, gave Davis
Speaker 3: eighty one and then Khalil Shaker on the outside sixteen percent.
Speaker 3: Inside sherfield you guys know him thirty four percent, with
Speaker 3: Deontay Hartney twenty percent, and then their two tight ends
Speaker 3: Knox and King Kid seventy one and sixty three percent respectively.
Speaker 3: They have a new interior offensive line. Connor McGovern was
Speaker 3: kind of their big free agent get from Dallas. He
Speaker 3: pivots to guard though, and then Osiris Torrance was an
Speaker 3: early draft pick of Theirs, and he's clicked pretty well
Speaker 3: for them. And then Mitch Moore. You guys know him.
Speaker 3: He's been the center there for a long long time.
Speaker 3: Off the edge, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, one of
Speaker 3: those guys is great. One of those guys. We have
Speaker 3: a matchup advantage there.
Speaker 2: More on that in a moment.
Speaker 3: And then at running back, James Cook is is their
Speaker 3: go to guys sixty percent of the workload, and then
Speaker 3: Latavious Murray twenty three percent, and I just forgot his name,
Speaker 3: Damien Harris, sorry, formerly the Patriots just fifteen percent.
Speaker 2: This year.
Speaker 3: They do trot out a fullback for ten percent of
Speaker 3: their snaps. And again it all starts at the quarterback position.
Speaker 3: Josh Allen is hell to defend. You can do everything
Speaker 3: right from a rule standpoint, and he can still make
Speaker 3: a play on you. And you know, he gets a
Speaker 3: lot of crap for the inaccurate passes or the turnover
Speaker 3: plays or the bonehead decisions, but at the end of
Speaker 3: the day, he is the best creator off script maybe
Speaker 3: of all time, with the ability to threaten you in
Speaker 3: the running game as well. But he also lives on
Speaker 3: the edge of dazzling and head scratching, so it's like
Speaker 3: a give or take, and it kind of He's kind
Speaker 3: of the guy that I think bucks what current quarterback
Speaker 3: scouting is, like everyone's.
Speaker 2: Like armstrng run the ball six foot six.
Speaker 3: Yeah, rare, yeah, but like you have to learn to
Speaker 3: live with the misses on layups and the turnovers because
Speaker 3: on the back and he pays you off with more
Speaker 3: explosive plays because of the nature with which how he
Speaker 3: plays the game. So you know, we talked about this
Speaker 3: going back to twenty twenty with how many chances we've
Speaker 3: had for takeaways on this guy and we just never
Speaker 3: get them until last year's final two games, which ironically
Speaker 3: were both losses. But the Week three game last year,
Speaker 3: like or back in twenty twenty, rather the Week two game,
Speaker 3: we had like five turnover opportunities and didn't get them
Speaker 3: and lost the game by three. Same story the following year,
Speaker 3: and then last season the first game, didn't get the
Speaker 3: takeaways early on, had chances for it, but eventually stopped
Speaker 3: them on downs a couple of times, and then again
Speaker 3: last year in the late games four turnovers or for
Speaker 3: Miami's defense, three turnovers in that game. Then this year
Speaker 3: week number one against the Jets, they turned the ball
Speaker 3: over four times and scored just thirteen points. Last two games,
Speaker 3: no Allen turnovers, and if sure enough, they rolled to
Speaker 3: massive victories with thirty points in both those games. And
Speaker 3: as far as the Bills record the last two seasons
Speaker 3: this year and last, when Allen turns the ball over
Speaker 3: two times or more, they're two and four. When he
Speaker 3: has a single turnover or none, they're fourteen to Oh.
Speaker 2: So there you go.
Speaker 3: And last year we saw Javon Holland have an excellent
Speaker 3: spy rap on him. We covered pretty well early, but
Speaker 3: eventually he made some plays. I'm really curious to see
Speaker 3: what Vic dials up here, because he's shown you that
Speaker 3: he will call it opponents specific you know, blitz or
Speaker 3: not and we saw the Dolphins be effective with the
Speaker 3: you know, making him play patient last year, and we
Speaker 3: saw them have a pretty good playoff game by just
Speaker 3: coming after him NonStop. So there's multiple ways to do
Speaker 3: this and trying to find a way to limit Stefon Diggs.
Speaker 3: To me, that's the key. He's the straw that stirs
Speaker 3: the drink. I'm not sure what the matchups look like
Speaker 3: here obviously, but I think that if you go look, look,
Speaker 3: I'll put it this way, do not let Examing Howard
Speaker 3: covers Toefon Diggs one on one. Either help him heavy
Speaker 3: in that matchup or go cater And even then I'd
Speaker 3: help Cater on Diggs because I think the play here
Speaker 3: is to go X on Davis because that's physical on
Speaker 3: physical and even though ex is struggling again this year,
Speaker 3: I think that's a good matchup for him, and then
Speaker 3: Cater on Diggs with an eye of help, and maybe
Speaker 3: you get Apple on a Sure or Shakur. Those are
Speaker 3: the matchups you have to win one on one, Davis
Speaker 3: one on one and then Sherfield or Shaker one on one.
Speaker 2: Win those matchup on the tight ends.
Speaker 3: And I like our chances to do that because our
Speaker 3: tight ends are very good in coverage, especially Javon Holland, who's.
Speaker 2: Playing really well right now.
Speaker 3: I think Deshaun Elliott's had two good games in a row,
Speaker 3: and then the potential of possibly Brandon Jones getting back
Speaker 3: into the fold here and speaking of you know, tight
Speaker 3: ends and jamming into the formation and running the football,
Speaker 3: I think the same thing applies. What we talked about
Speaker 3: on our side of the ball is that our defense
Speaker 3: traditionally plays lighter boxes, and James Cook has ran the
Speaker 3: ball well, but if you can get them out of
Speaker 3: that early on and shut them down in the run
Speaker 3: game early, they have a propensity to go away from it.
Speaker 3: And I think that's why you brought in David Long
Speaker 3: to help you have more range and instincts with light
Speaker 3: boxes to shoot gaps and make plays to limit a
Speaker 3: running offense that can really make them one dimensional and
Speaker 3: put an explosive play but more of a turnover worthy play,
Speaker 3: pro and quarterback in more peril by making them play
Speaker 3: one dimensionals.
Speaker 2: That's kind of the hope there.
Speaker 3: As far as their personnel, eleven personnel just thirty seven
Speaker 3: percent of the time they do operate from twelve personnel
Speaker 3: forty five percent so those two tight ends are out
Speaker 3: there a lot together, and then twenty one personnel, two
Speaker 3: backs with that fullback eight percent, and they sprinkle in
Speaker 3: some variations of two thirteen and twenty two, which is,
Speaker 3: you know, multiple backs and tight ends back there as well.
Speaker 2: So I think you're going.
Speaker 3: To see lots of bass, which to me is a
Speaker 3: good thing because it means less Eli Apple and more
Speaker 3: of an extra linebacker or a defensive lineman like a
Speaker 3: Van Ginkel, maybe a Rakwon Davis, or maybe even a
Speaker 3: third safety.
Speaker 2: I think Brandon Jones could be.
Speaker 3: A guy you roll out a big Nickel package this
Speaker 3: week and utilize Deshaun or Brandon as kind of a
Speaker 3: box defender or a spy on Josh Allen.
Speaker 2: That might be the way to go here.
Speaker 3: And I wonder if you would be able to do
Speaker 3: that and continue to match up on the tight ends
Speaker 3: that they want to throw the ball to, you know,
Speaker 3: frequently in this game with Knox and King Kid, because
Speaker 3: I think that Allen can match up there really well.
Speaker 3: And then Deshaun Elliott two is that might be kind
Speaker 3: of my move there is use Brandon Jones as kind
Speaker 3: of that rat in the whole, that fifth rusher and
Speaker 3: then have your two safeties that have been playing mostly
Speaker 3: be more cover guys.
Speaker 2: I don't know, there's lots of options.
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and finish up on the inside here
Speaker 3: because the pressures allowed for the bills go as follows.
Speaker 3: Spencer Brown the right tackle has allowed nine. That leads
Speaker 3: the team this year more than any Miami Dolphin so
Speaker 3: as much Morse he has seven, that's the second most.
Speaker 3: At the center position. McGovern and Torrance the guards six
Speaker 3: and five respectively, and then Dion Dawkins at left tackle five.
Speaker 3: He's pretty locked down. JP had his best game last
Speaker 3: year I think against Spencer Brown whipped him. I think
Speaker 3: you can expect to get more of that if he
Speaker 3: gets more one on one chances. But what you really
Speaker 3: need here, I think is Wilkins and sealer to really
Speaker 3: give it to Torrance and McGovern inside because with the occasional
Speaker 3: blitz as well, because if you can move those guys
Speaker 3: off their spot, you're going to create more chances for
Speaker 3: big plays with Josh extending, but also more chances he
Speaker 3: puts the ball.
Speaker 2: In harm's way. And that's how you beat this team.
Speaker 3: If you turn this team over twice, I think on Sunday,
Speaker 3: I think you roll to a pretty easy victory. So
Speaker 3: my keys to victory are Number one, keep the run
Speaker 3: game rolling. We heard two of his press conference on
Speaker 3: Wednesdays say that these guys are gonna line up in nickel,
Speaker 3: They're going to show you what they want to do,
Speaker 3: and they're going to run it, and you have to
Speaker 3: go beat them. I think Miami's equipped to do that.
Speaker 3: And if you want to line up in one thing
Speaker 3: and not disguise, good freaking luck against this offense, you
Speaker 3: have to exploit those matchups. You have to stay out
Speaker 3: a third and long and go after their light defense
Speaker 3: with your heavy twenty one twelve personnel attack and run
Speaker 3: the football. I expect two hundred more yards here. Number two,
Speaker 3: create splash plays on defense. You heard it the turnover stat.
Speaker 3: Get two takeaways on Josh, you'll win the game. And
Speaker 3: the third key to victory is protect against the Bills
Speaker 3: four man rush. If they can generate pressure without blitzing,
Speaker 3: that's obviously playing right into their hand. Force them to
Speaker 3: change what they do to try to make two uncomfortable,
Speaker 3: and then you can start hitting big explosives if you
Speaker 3: stay patient and beat that four man pass rush with consistency. Okay,
Speaker 3: I predicted thirty twenty seven in Game one against the Chargers,
Speaker 3: pretty close. We came out on top there thirty six
Speaker 3: thirty four. I went thirty one to seventeen. In Game two.
Speaker 3: I think those two missfield goals were the reason we
Speaker 3: didn't get within a point there at thirty to seventeen
Speaker 3: winds up being twenty four to seventeen. And then I
Speaker 3: said forty four to twenty four last week. Now, I
Speaker 3: think I get a pass for not predicting seventy but
Speaker 3: predicting forty four. That's pretty uncommon, Like people don't usually
Speaker 3: go that high. It's usually in the in the low thirties.
Speaker 3: As this high as we'll go. And then just you know,
Speaker 3: four points off from Denver score, which I gave him
Speaker 3: that much because of the garbage time production I expected
Speaker 3: the kickoff return. This week, I'm gonna go even more
Speaker 3: specific and tell you exactly how this game will go.
Speaker 3: You ready, the Dolphins will get the football in the
Speaker 3: middle of the third quarter with a thirty one to
Speaker 3: thirty lead, and Tua is going to take us right
Speaker 3: down the field with a brilliant mix of run and pass.
Speaker 3: We score a touchdown we go for two, which Seth
Speaker 3: and oj are going to hate. But I love making
Speaker 3: it a two possession game whenever you can, because if
Speaker 3: you miss, they still have to score. Go down the
Speaker 3: whole field and score a touchdown and like.
Speaker 2: But they don't score a two point conversion there, Travis.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but you can make it a two score game,
Speaker 3: which is way more valuable than making it an eight
Speaker 3: point game.
Speaker 2: They go for two, they get it. It's thirty nine
Speaker 2: to thirty.
Speaker 3: Buffalo gets the ball back with less than two minutes,
Speaker 3: trailing by two scores, and we turn Josh Allen over
Speaker 3: and the Dolphin go to four and oh and come
Speaker 3: home very very happy.
Speaker 2: That's your podcast.
Speaker 3: We'll have Joe Marino from Lockdown Bills on tomorrow, and
Speaker 3: Tracy Wolfson, the great CBS sile On reporter, will join
Speaker 3: us for the podcast on Friday as well. Plenty more
Speaker 3: coming your way this week on the Draft Time podcast,
Speaker 3: But in the meantime, that will be my time you all.
Speaker 3: Please be sure to subscribe to the podcast on Apple,
Speaker 3: on Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts from. Leave us
Speaker 3: a rating, leave us a review. You can follow me
Speaker 3: on Twitter at linkfold NFL. Follow the team at Miami Dolphin.
Speaker 3: Check out the Fish Tank podcast with Seth and Juice.
Speaker 3: Check out the YouTube channel for media availabilities and Dolphins Today,
Speaker 3: much much more. At last, but not least, Miami Dolphins
Speaker 3: dot Com. Until next time, fins up, Carolina Cameron Daddy,
Speaker 3: He's coming Hold