WEBVTT - Daniel Yergin on The New Map

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<v Speaker 1>This is Lee Habib and this is our American Stories.

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<v Speaker 1>And we love to feature great authors that tell great

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<v Speaker 1>stories in their books. And today's guest is Daniel Jergen,

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<v Speaker 1>an energy expert, economic historian, and author of the book

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<v Speaker 1>The New Map, Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations. Daniel,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for joining us. I want to jump right in.

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<v Speaker 1>In your book, you talk about how our country CO

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<v Speaker 1>two emissions have actually decreased from nineteen ninety. Talk about

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<v Speaker 1>that and who are what do we have to thank.

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<v Speaker 2>For that our CO two emissions are down to the

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<v Speaker 2>level of nineteen ninety, our carbon dinoxide emissions even though

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<v Speaker 2>the economy has doubled in that time. And the reason

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<v Speaker 2>is that coal has been supplanted by inexpensive natural gas

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<v Speaker 2>in our electric generation system. So the biggest contribution that

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<v Speaker 2>has been made to reducing CO two emissions in the

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<v Speaker 2>United States goes back to that gas man who is

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<v Speaker 2>also an environmental man, George Mitchell. George Mitchell was a

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<v Speaker 2>Texas entrepreneur, the son of an immigrant. He worked his

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<v Speaker 2>way through school. He never wanted to work for anybody else.

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<v Speaker 2>He started his own company. But he wasn't an oil man.

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<v Speaker 2>He was a gas man and he believed in natural

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<v Speaker 2>gas and that was almost his vocation. He built up

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<v Speaker 2>a substantial company, but he had a problem. He had

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<v Speaker 2>a contract to supply gas to Chicago, ten percent of

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<v Speaker 2>Chicago's gas, and he was running out of reserves. And

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<v Speaker 2>he read an article about the ability to get natural

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<v Speaker 2>gas out of this very dense rock called shale. And

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<v Speaker 2>everybody's scoff They said, the textbook said it was impossible,

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<v Speaker 2>can never do it commercially. He kept at it for

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<v Speaker 2>eighteen years and it's just about to throw in the

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<v Speaker 2>towel when one of his guys, and this is the

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<v Speaker 2>accidents of history, went to a baseball game in Dallas,

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<v Speaker 2>sat next to somebody else who said, there's this other

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<v Speaker 2>technique called slickwater fracking as they called it, and he

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<v Speaker 2>tried it. And this was going to be the last will

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<v Speaker 2>they were going to close it down. After eighteen years,

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<v Speaker 2>it's succeeded. And that was the beginning in nineteen ninety

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<v Speaker 2>eight of what became the shale revolution. And you know,

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<v Speaker 2>Mitchell turned out to be a prophet and an individual

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<v Speaker 2>who really has changed the course of history by his stubbornness.

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<v Speaker 1>And Daniel, what might surprise folks is that George was

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<v Speaker 1>actually a conservationist, which is why he was such a

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<v Speaker 1>proponent of natural gas.

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<v Speaker 2>Talk about that George was committed to natural gas because

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<v Speaker 2>he thought it was environmentally preferable, much cleaner fuel than coal.

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<v Speaker 2>I remember once, just out of the blue, when I

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<v Speaker 2>was just kind of starting out of my career, he

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<v Speaker 2>thought I'd said something nice about coal, and I just

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<v Speaker 2>pointed out that in the eighties the US government was

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<v Speaker 2>really promoting coal as a domestic energy source. And he

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<v Speaker 2>called me and just you know, denounced coal. And so

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<v Speaker 2>he was committed to gas. And in fact, he actually

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<v Speaker 2>created outside Houston a community called Woodlands, which by its

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<v Speaker 2>name was you know, with trees and a planned community

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<v Speaker 2>that was meant to be very environmentally dedicated, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>a great place to live, a great place to work.

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<v Speaker 2>And so he was a strong environmentalist and was building

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<v Speaker 2>this community at the same time he was building the

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<v Speaker 2>gas business. But then times were tough before the success

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<v Speaker 2>was fracking, and he had to sell the Woodlands because

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<v Speaker 2>he needed the money to keep looking for natural gas.

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<v Speaker 2>And that was one of the great ironies of his life.

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<v Speaker 2>But the man was an environmentalist before his time, just

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<v Speaker 2>as he was a shale gas revolutionary before his time.

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<v Speaker 1>Another revolutionary you mentioned in your book is Mark Papa.

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<v Speaker 1>Set the scene what was going on in the industry,

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<v Speaker 1>and explain Mark's role in developing shale oil.

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<v Speaker 2>He started to see the build up of shale gas

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<v Speaker 2>around two thousand and three two thousand and four and

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<v Speaker 2>started to build up pretty rapidly, changing people's you know,

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<v Speaker 2>we went from shortage basically a surplus. But people didn't

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<v Speaker 2>think that you could do the same thing for oil.

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<v Speaker 2>And Mark Papa headed an oil CUPNY down in Texas

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<v Speaker 2>and he sort of said, there's going to be a

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<v Speaker 2>huge clot of natural gas. Why can't we do this

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<v Speaker 2>for oil? So he said to his people, I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>the question this is it's a funny question. The question

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<v Speaker 2>is how big is a molecule of oil? Because the

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<v Speaker 2>shale rock is so dense, you need to know once

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<v Speaker 2>you've done the fracking, which is sort of loosening into

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<v Speaker 2>the rock, you need the shale the molecules.

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<v Speaker 3>Of oil to be able to flow through it.

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<v Speaker 2>And he said, well, how big is a molecule of oil?

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<v Speaker 2>And people said, oh, I don't know, and somebody else

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<v Speaker 2>said I don't know, and he said, well, look it up,

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<v Speaker 2>and they looked it up and there was no place.

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<v Speaker 2>So they used all this equipment that is used, you

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<v Speaker 2>know in hospitals and stuff to figure out what is

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<v Speaker 2>the size of an oil molecule and they said, you

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<v Speaker 2>know what, this will work for oil too. And up

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<v Speaker 2>till two thousand and eight, people thought this wouldn't work

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<v Speaker 2>for oil because the molecules were too big. And that's

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<v Speaker 2>when we started to see two thousand and eight to

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<v Speaker 2>two thousand and nine, Mark Pappa got.

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<v Speaker 3>The thing going.

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<v Speaker 2>And on the oil side, and here's the United States,

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<v Speaker 2>which was importing sixty percent of its oil in around

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<v Speaker 2>two thousand and eight, is now energy independent. In fact,

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<v Speaker 2>we can export oil. And again it was kind of

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<v Speaker 2>one person's conviction was really important. So you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>whole story in the new Map is the story of

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<v Speaker 2>you know, it's technology, big forces in the world, and

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<v Speaker 2>then of individuals who really make a difference.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about another individual. You talk about a character

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<v Speaker 1>named Harold Ham, a man that described himself as a

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<v Speaker 1>quote hungry young man end quote. Who was he and

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<v Speaker 1>why was he so important?

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<v Speaker 2>Harold Ham was a son of a sharecropper. I think

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<v Speaker 2>they had twelve or thirteen children, and he had to

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<v Speaker 2>help his parents, you know, gather cotton and harvest. He

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<v Speaker 2>would miss part of the school year and everything. It

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<v Speaker 2>was a very poor family. But he was a very hungry, motivated,

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<v Speaker 2>driven person. And he started off working i think in

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<v Speaker 2>a gasoline station and then delivering fuel to oil sites.

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<v Speaker 2>And he just hung around and learned from these guys,

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<v Speaker 2>and he just had a conviction that he could do it.

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<v Speaker 2>And so he scraped together some money and began exploring.

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<v Speaker 2>Didn't have success, and then he did have success, and

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<v Speaker 2>that became the basis of building a company called Continental Resources.

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<v Speaker 2>But it came from a guy who just started really

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<v Speaker 2>with absolutely nothing. He had to go kind of to

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<v Speaker 2>night school and just go down to the library to

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<v Speaker 2>read to understand about how geology worked.

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<v Speaker 1>And by the way, Daniel, it's important to note that

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<v Speaker 1>before his success there was a lot of failure. In

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<v Speaker 1>your book, you mentioned that he had seventeen dry holes

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<v Speaker 1>in a row. What does that mean and how bad

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<v Speaker 1>a streak is that?

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<v Speaker 2>Dry holes means you put the money and the effort

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<v Speaker 2>into drilling well and you come up with zippo. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, it didn't work, And seventeen dry holes. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>just as you say it, I think about it. How

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<v Speaker 2>do you keep going? How do you not?

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<v Speaker 3>You know you're running out of money?

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<v Speaker 2>You have a conviction, you juste but one after another,

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<v Speaker 2>one disappointment after another, because you know in that business

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<v Speaker 2>you have to be an optimist. You have to think

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to work. And so to keep yourself going

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<v Speaker 2>when you have that kind of discouragement, you need, let's see,

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<v Speaker 2>a high octane conviction to carry you forward.

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<v Speaker 1>And we're talking to Daniel Jurgen and his book is

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<v Speaker 1>The New Map, Energy Climate and the Clash of Nations.

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<v Speaker 1>Get it wherever you can. It is a heck of

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<v Speaker 1>a thriller when we come back. More of Daniel Jurgen's

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<v Speaker 1>story here on our American Story Folks, if you love

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<v Speaker 1>That's our American Stories dot com. And we're back with

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<v Speaker 1>our American Stories and our talk with author, energy expert

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<v Speaker 1>and economic historian Daniel Jurgen and his book The New Map.

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<v Speaker 1>We left off with the discovery of shale oil. Daniel,

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<v Speaker 1>where is this oil found and how is it cultivated?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there are only certain areas in the United States

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<v Speaker 2>that really lend themselves. They have this very dense tight

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<v Speaker 2>rock or shale. Maybe just explain when you're doing a shale, Well,

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<v Speaker 2>what you're doing is you're drilling maybe you know, ten

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<v Speaker 2>thousand feet down into the earth, well below the water table,

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<v Speaker 2>and then you're going to go two miles drill parallel

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<v Speaker 2>to a horizontal fashion. If you can visualize that, and

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<v Speaker 2>the kind of precision and computer capabilities you need are

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<v Speaker 2>very extensive to do that. So what are the big

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<v Speaker 2>areas in the United States? The Balkan is in North Dakota.

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<v Speaker 2>It produces more oil, maybe as much oil as Venezuela,

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<v Speaker 2>the country of Venezuela, which actually has the world's largest

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<v Speaker 2>oil reserves. But the biggest thing of all is this

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<v Speaker 2>area called the Permian which is in West Texas and

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<v Speaker 2>into New Mexico, and that was a very important oil

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<v Speaker 2>resource for the United States during World War Two when

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<v Speaker 2>the US was six out of seven barrels of oil

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<v Speaker 2>used by the Allies in World War Two came from

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<v Speaker 2>the United States and West Texas was an important part

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<v Speaker 2>of that. But you know, by two thousand and six,

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<v Speaker 2>two thousand and seven, people were saying, oh, the Permian's finished,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, just kind of doing benedictions over it, and

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<v Speaker 2>then lo and behold, they started to apply these technologies

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<v Speaker 2>to it, and it turned out because you have a

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<v Speaker 2>kind of layer on top of layer of shale rock

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<v Speaker 2>with oil in it, that it's now become like this

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<v Speaker 2>super area in terms of oil production, and it rivals

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<v Speaker 2>the largest oil field in Saudi Arabia in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>its importance in scale. So it's a world resource that

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<v Speaker 2>technology has has unlocked. If you take the state like

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<v Speaker 2>of New Mexico, its royalties from shale are what helped

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<v Speaker 2>pay the salaries of teachers, of firefighters, of law enforcement officials.

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<v Speaker 2>But people don't think about that, but it is a

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<v Speaker 2>pretty big contribution, particularly at the time when government budgets

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<v Speaker 2>are stretched.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, Daniel what's remarkable about this is that while

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<v Speaker 1>you'd expect the Exxons, the Mobiles, the Chevrons, the big

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<v Speaker 1>energy giants of the world to lead this innovation, it

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<v Speaker 1>was individuals. It was wildcatters like George Mitchell and Harold

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<v Speaker 1>Ham were the true pioneers. What explains that.

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<v Speaker 2>It's often been the case in the oil industry around

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<v Speaker 2>the world that it's kind of what you call an independent,

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<v Speaker 2>a smaller company run, a more entrepreneurial company, where kind

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<v Speaker 2>of people pursue ideas, develop new fields, and then the

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<v Speaker 2>larger companies come in and bring their scale and their

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<v Speaker 2>ability to execute do large projects, who then come in later.

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<v Speaker 2>But it is true that this was done by the independence.

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<v Speaker 2>We're now at a stage where, because of what's happened

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<v Speaker 2>with oil prices and demand and pressure on costs, that

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<v Speaker 2>you're getting the kind of consolidation and the big companies,

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<v Speaker 2>the Exxons and Mobiles and the Chevrons, are now big

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<v Speaker 2>players in shale, But it's the little guys who opened

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<v Speaker 2>the door.

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<v Speaker 1>In your book, you addressed three of the recurring themes

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<v Speaker 1>for what's wrong with fracking, and that's water contamination, earthquakes,

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<v Speaker 1>and methane and you explain these three concerns.

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<v Speaker 2>Sure, certainly there have been environmental opposition, and early on

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<v Speaker 2>there was concern about whether this would affect water. And

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<v Speaker 2>I was on the commission set up for President Obama

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<v Speaker 2>to review the environmental aspects, and the conclusion was that

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<v Speaker 2>if this is managed properly, regulated properly, and it's a

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<v Speaker 2>highly regulated industry by the way, which people don't understand often,

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<v Speaker 2>that if you did that, then you know this, like

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<v Speaker 2>any industrial activity, we could go forward. And I think

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<v Speaker 2>that we found on the water side that the concerns

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<v Speaker 2>were way exaggerated about any impact on water, because you're

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<v Speaker 2>operating at a whole different levels in much below the

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<v Speaker 2>water table. There's still controversy about a couple of incidents,

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<v Speaker 2>but water turned out not to be a problem. Earthquakes

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<v Speaker 2>had to do not with the fracking, but with the

0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:33.480
<v Speaker 2>injection of wastewater into geological formations that were inappropriate, and

0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:37.160
<v Speaker 2>you saw that particularly in Oklahoma in terms of what

0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:40.360
<v Speaker 2>called earthquake swarms, and there was a quick case where

0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:44.559
<v Speaker 2>regulation had to step in and manage more carefully how

0:12:44.600 --> 0:12:47.199
<v Speaker 2>you deal with wastewater. And by the way, there's increasing

0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:51.040
<v Speaker 2>efforts to recycle and clean up wastewater to reduce the

0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:54.880
<v Speaker 2>need to reinject methane is an important issue, and there's

0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:58.480
<v Speaker 2>a lot of focus on methane, which is only you know,

0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:01.079
<v Speaker 2>more emerged in the last few years as a concern,

0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:05.600
<v Speaker 2>and capturing methane because it is a oppotent greenhouse gas,

0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:10.760
<v Speaker 2>is now become a major focus. Companies are working on it.

0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:13.960
<v Speaker 2>I think it will become with a Biden administration. It

0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:17.640
<v Speaker 2>will be a focus of activity so methane can be

0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:20.880
<v Speaker 2>managed and captured and in fact it has economic value

0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 2>because it's natural gas, but not allowing it to escape

0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:27.240
<v Speaker 2>into the atmosphere because of leaks, so that I think

0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.040
<v Speaker 2>is a priority to focus on.

0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:33.880
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about LNG. What do those initials stand for?

0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:36.199
<v Speaker 1>Why does it matter to people listening?

0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:43.480
<v Speaker 2>LNG stands for liquified natural gas that is taking gas

0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:47.800
<v Speaker 2>and basically freezing it at a temperature I think it's

0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:50.319
<v Speaker 2>two hundred and sixty degrees below zero at a very

0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:53.559
<v Speaker 2>low temperature, which compresses it, makes it take up one

0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:55.800
<v Speaker 2>six hundredth the size if it would as a gas,

0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:58.480
<v Speaker 2>and you put it into a tank on a ship

0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:01.200
<v Speaker 2>and you send it from a place that has extra

0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:04.080
<v Speaker 2>natural gas to places that don't have natural gas.

0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:06.600
<v Speaker 3>And in fact, you.

0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:08.960
<v Speaker 2>Know, this started in the United States. The first shipment

0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:13.680
<v Speaker 2>of LNG went from the United States to England in

0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:16.880
<v Speaker 2>nineteen fifty nine because England was having trouble with air

0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:21.000
<v Speaker 2>pollution from burning coal. People were using coal for heating

0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:23.160
<v Speaker 2>in their houses and so forth, and that was the

0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:26.280
<v Speaker 2>beginning of this LERG industry. In the last ten years

0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:28.680
<v Speaker 2>or so fifteen years, it's become a really big business,

0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:33.000
<v Speaker 2>a global business. The Middle East is a big supplier,

0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:37.320
<v Speaker 2>country called Gutter, Australia is a big supplier, and now

0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:40.200
<v Speaker 2>the United States is becoming a big supplier because we

0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:43.560
<v Speaker 2>have so much gas and it's a way to find new.

0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:44.560
<v Speaker 3>Markets for it.

0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:47.760
<v Speaker 2>And the gas is going to places like Asia which

0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:50.840
<v Speaker 2>want to reduce their coal burn because you can use

0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:55.000
<v Speaker 2>gas to generate electricity instead of coal. And the US

0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:56.840
<v Speaker 2>is now going to be you know, the US is

0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:58.920
<v Speaker 2>one of the big three of the world oil producers,

0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:01.640
<v Speaker 2>with Saudi Arabia, with Russia, US is going to be

0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:05.560
<v Speaker 2>one of the big three LNG exporters as well.

0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:08.960
<v Speaker 1>One of the key components to this industry are pipelines.

0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:12.520
<v Speaker 1>Talk about the drama that's unfolded over pipelines in this country.

0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:14.880
<v Speaker 2>Pipelines used to be about the most boring part of

0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:18.040
<v Speaker 2>the energy industry. The joke was that going through a

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:21.480
<v Speaker 2>approval process to build a pipeline was as exciting as

0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:25.040
<v Speaker 2>watching paint dry. Well, it's gotten pretty exciting since then,

0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:28.760
<v Speaker 2>a lot more exciting, and they have become the focal

0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:34.000
<v Speaker 2>point for those who don't want shale development. And two

0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:36.320
<v Speaker 2>of the pipelines I write about. One is called Keystone,

0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:40.120
<v Speaker 2>which is a pipeline system that already runs from Canada,

0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:43.440
<v Speaker 2>which is our main source of oil. Although we're self sufficient,

0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:46.080
<v Speaker 2>some quality of our oil is better sold in the

0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:49.360
<v Speaker 2>world market, and then we import others because it runs

0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.360
<v Speaker 2>better in kind of what's called the refining part of

0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:56.000
<v Speaker 2>the industry that turns things into gasoline and jet fuel

0:15:56.040 --> 0:16:02.400
<v Speaker 2>and so forth. So Keystone it already exists. Canada provides

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:06.520
<v Speaker 2>over half of our imports. But Canada has continued to

0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:11.840
<v Speaker 2>develop its own oil industry and proposed an additional pipeline

0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:17.280
<v Speaker 2>called Keystone Excel. And this has been basically controversy for

0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:21.400
<v Speaker 2>more than a decade. In twenty twelve, when gasoline prices

0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:24.000
<v Speaker 2>were five dollars before we saw the impact.

0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:24.960
<v Speaker 3>Of the shale revolution.

0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:31.480
<v Speaker 2>But subsequently the Obama administration prohibited the Keystone XL pipeline

0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:33.920
<v Speaker 2>from getting a permit across the border because you need

0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:35.880
<v Speaker 2>the State Department to sign off on that.

0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:37.560
<v Speaker 3>It's getting approvals.

0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:40.840
<v Speaker 2>Is a very byzantine, complex system that runs through a

0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:43.720
<v Speaker 2>lot of different regulatory agencies, ends up in court with

0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:45.760
<v Speaker 2>a lot of you know, a lot of lawyers get

0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:50.120
<v Speaker 2>involved in it, and it got stopped. The Trump administration

0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:54.080
<v Speaker 2>gave the go ahead. I think the Biden administration we'll

0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:57.680
<v Speaker 2>see again, we'll seek to stop it. But so what

0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:00.000
<v Speaker 2>happens instead that oil, instead of going through a pipeline,

0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:03.320
<v Speaker 2>actually comes by railcar. The other pipeline I write about

0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:06.439
<v Speaker 2>is the Dakota Access, and that goes back to what

0:17:06.520 --> 0:17:09.600
<v Speaker 2>you talked about the BACAN, because again, you either move

0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:12.000
<v Speaker 2>the oil out by railcar and you have these trains

0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:14.560
<v Speaker 2>with one hundred cars, or you put it in a pipeline,

0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:18.720
<v Speaker 2>a modern, safe pipeline. And that became a huge battle

0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:23.160
<v Speaker 2>and finally got built. But it continues, you know, the controversy.

0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:24.920
<v Speaker 2>Even though it's been running for about three years now,

0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:29.600
<v Speaker 2>it continues to be controversial. So the battle over pipelines

0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:33.320
<v Speaker 2>has become a very critical issue in terms of the

0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:36.080
<v Speaker 2>development of North American energy resources.

0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:39.840
<v Speaker 1>And we're talking to Daniel Jurgen. The book The New Map,

0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:43.000
<v Speaker 1>Energy Climate and the Clash of Nations. It's a heck

0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:45.439
<v Speaker 1>of a read, a heck of a story. More with

0:17:45.560 --> 0:18:09.160
<v Speaker 1>Daniel Jurgen here on Our American Story And we're back

0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:12.399
<v Speaker 1>with our American Stories and with Daniel Jurgen, author of

0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:16.440
<v Speaker 1>The New Map, Energy Climate and The Clash of Nations.

0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:20.080
<v Speaker 1>Before the break, Daniel, you discussed the grueling and often

0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:24.680
<v Speaker 1>impossible legal process to approve national pipelines. So the next

0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:27.879
<v Speaker 1>best alternative or trains to move that gas? Daniel, do

0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:32.040
<v Speaker 1>you think people get the comparative advantages of pipelines, for instance,

0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:33.280
<v Speaker 1>versus rails.

0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:36.720
<v Speaker 2>No, No, I don't think at all that they don't

0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:39.200
<v Speaker 2>visualize it. And again, if you look at I mean,

0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:41.040
<v Speaker 2>if I go back and look at the coverage of

0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:44.200
<v Speaker 2>these issues, it focuses on some aspects that it doesn't

0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:48.160
<v Speaker 2>focus on the other aspects. People get very much caught up,

0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:53.480
<v Speaker 2>shall we say, into drama of it, you know, the demonstrations,

0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:58.840
<v Speaker 2>the visual story and without you know, people don't really

0:18:58.920 --> 0:19:00.840
<v Speaker 2>have in their heads, well, what are the trade offs

0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:03.159
<v Speaker 2>here and what are the advantages and how would you

0:19:03.280 --> 0:19:08.920
<v Speaker 2>rather move these supplies across? But approval processes take five, six,

0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:12.040
<v Speaker 2>seven years. They've just become industries. It becomes an industry

0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:14.960
<v Speaker 2>itself just to go through an approval process, because there's

0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:18.480
<v Speaker 2>always another court or another judge, another issue to raise.

0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:21.240
<v Speaker 2>And sometimes people finally say they just throw in the

0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:22.920
<v Speaker 2>towel and say, okay, forget it.

0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:23.960
<v Speaker 3>You know we're not going to.

0:19:23.960 --> 0:19:26.720
<v Speaker 2>We can't keep spending hundreds and hundreds of million dollars

0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:28.920
<v Speaker 2>a year working on trying to get a pipeline built.

0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:32.359
<v Speaker 2>You know, we have a very complex system for getting

0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:37.200
<v Speaker 2>things approved, and I think people don't realize how complicated

0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:40.080
<v Speaker 2>the regulatory system is in the United States, and how

0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:42.439
<v Speaker 2>many different levels, and there's so many different ways for

0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:46.600
<v Speaker 2>people to get involved and define something to object. So,

0:19:46.960 --> 0:19:49.840
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's tough building new pipelines. At least, it's

0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:51.919
<v Speaker 2>not tough building new pipelines if you're building, say in

0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:55.600
<v Speaker 2>the southwest Texas. But to build a pipeline that would

0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:59.440
<v Speaker 2>carry Marcella's gas to the east coast somewhere today, it's

0:19:59.480 --> 0:20:02.239
<v Speaker 2>a pretty daunting endeavor to take on.

0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:06.240
<v Speaker 1>In chapter eight, you wrote quote for four decades US

0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:10.480
<v Speaker 1>energy policy was dominated, and it's foreign policy hobbled by

0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:14.480
<v Speaker 1>the specter of shortage and vulnerability, going back to the

0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:18.440
<v Speaker 1>nineteen seventy three oil embargoes, in the nineteen seventy nine

0:20:18.600 --> 0:20:22.440
<v Speaker 1>Iranian Revolution, you know, Daniel, not long ago we had

0:20:22.480 --> 0:20:26.359
<v Speaker 1>to wait in line for gas. Many of us remember that.

0:20:26.480 --> 0:20:27.120
<v Speaker 1>Talk about that.

0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:31.960
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's been transformative. And it used to be such

0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:35.520
<v Speaker 2>a big issue that we were dependent upon imports, and

0:20:35.600 --> 0:20:39.480
<v Speaker 2>being dependent on imports meant that our economy was vulnerable politically,

0:20:39.560 --> 0:20:43.320
<v Speaker 2>and it was vulnerable economically to shocks of one kind

0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:47.320
<v Speaker 2>or another. And what's now been transformed is the United

0:20:47.320 --> 0:20:50.119
<v Speaker 2>States actually has a kind of flexibility and freedom and

0:20:50.160 --> 0:20:53.000
<v Speaker 2>foreign affairs that it just didn't have before. And our

0:20:53.040 --> 0:20:57.440
<v Speaker 2>economy is much safer, and we have what's called energy security,

0:20:57.480 --> 0:21:01.159
<v Speaker 2>which we really didn't have for decades, going back to

0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:05.439
<v Speaker 2>the nineteen seventies. I think it's roughly eight presidents who

0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:07.440
<v Speaker 2>kept calling for entergy independence so we couldn't get there,

0:21:07.480 --> 0:21:08.320
<v Speaker 2>And now we got there.

0:21:08.960 --> 0:21:12.520
<v Speaker 1>Although this show is called Our American Stories, let's talk

0:21:12.520 --> 0:21:16.120
<v Speaker 1>about China because they are one of our biggest rivals.

0:21:16.400 --> 0:21:20.560
<v Speaker 1>What is the Belt and Road and why should listeners.

0:21:20.119 --> 0:21:24.120
<v Speaker 3>Care in the I have these.

0:21:24.480 --> 0:21:25.920
<v Speaker 2>My book is called The New Map, and I sort

0:21:25.920 --> 0:21:28.000
<v Speaker 2>of mean the New Map in a kind of metaphorical

0:21:28.040 --> 0:21:30.159
<v Speaker 2>way of thinking about how the world has changed so

0:21:30.240 --> 0:21:33.080
<v Speaker 2>dramatically in ten years and trying to provide a map

0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:35.280
<v Speaker 2>or a guide to that, but it's also literal. And

0:21:35.320 --> 0:21:38.000
<v Speaker 2>I have a map of what's called the Belton Road,

0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:41.960
<v Speaker 2>which are really six different routes that China has proposed

0:21:42.800 --> 0:21:48.159
<v Speaker 2>and is working on to in a way connecting Central Asia,

0:21:48.320 --> 0:21:53.520
<v Speaker 2>South Asia, Middle East, Europe, Africa too much more tightly

0:21:53.560 --> 0:21:56.480
<v Speaker 2>to the Chinese economy and in since making the Middle

0:21:56.520 --> 0:21:58.600
<v Speaker 2>Kingdom is China's known much more of the middle of

0:21:58.600 --> 0:22:00.840
<v Speaker 2>the world economy, and it's already in a very substantial

0:22:00.920 --> 0:22:05.760
<v Speaker 2>position in the world economy. So this is a kind

0:22:05.800 --> 0:22:11.240
<v Speaker 2>of a manifestation of China's growing role in the world.

0:22:12.080 --> 0:22:15.160
<v Speaker 2>And there's a very strong energy component. And you make

0:22:15.200 --> 0:22:19.159
<v Speaker 2>a very important point that China now is described as

0:22:19.160 --> 0:22:23.520
<v Speaker 2>a strategic rival, peer competitor, but it's also really important market.

0:22:23.560 --> 0:22:26.439
<v Speaker 2>We're really connected with them. At the same time, General

0:22:26.440 --> 0:22:28.359
<v Speaker 2>Motor sells more cars in China than it does in

0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:31.400
<v Speaker 2>the United States. China is the biggest holder of US

0:22:31.520 --> 0:22:35.480
<v Speaker 2>government debt the biggest holder, so we're very connected, and

0:22:35.560 --> 0:22:39.240
<v Speaker 2>yet we're also increasingly a competitor with them. So this

0:22:39.400 --> 0:22:42.960
<v Speaker 2>is a big challenge to figure this out for the

0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:46.240
<v Speaker 2>United States. And you know as part of the American story.

0:22:46.480 --> 0:22:49.200
<v Speaker 2>This will be part of the American story in the

0:22:49.280 --> 0:22:49.879
<v Speaker 2>years ahead.

0:22:50.400 --> 0:22:54.040
<v Speaker 1>And how is America preparing itself for this rivalry?

0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:56.280
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think it's confused.

0:22:57.160 --> 0:23:01.080
<v Speaker 2>I think that some of China's actions, like what are

0:23:01.080 --> 0:23:04.600
<v Speaker 2>taking over Hong Kong, have been very disturbing. In fact,

0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:06.719
<v Speaker 2>the US government has just sanctioned a whole group of

0:23:06.840 --> 0:23:12.640
<v Speaker 2>Chinese officials for that. So and another map by point

0:23:12.680 --> 0:23:14.600
<v Speaker 2>to is the map of what's called the South China Sea,

0:23:14.640 --> 0:23:17.360
<v Speaker 2>which may seem very far away from America, but it's

0:23:17.359 --> 0:23:20.240
<v Speaker 2>where one third of world trade goes through. It's also

0:23:20.280 --> 0:23:22.439
<v Speaker 2>the most dangerous body of water I think in the

0:23:22.480 --> 0:23:26.200
<v Speaker 2>world today, because that's where US naval warships and Chinese

0:23:26.280 --> 0:23:28.840
<v Speaker 2>naval warships come close to colliding with each other on

0:23:28.880 --> 0:23:31.880
<v Speaker 2>a number of occasions. Because China says the South China

0:23:31.880 --> 0:23:34.840
<v Speaker 2>Sea is Chinese territory, we don't recognize that. The other

0:23:34.840 --> 0:23:38.960
<v Speaker 2>countries in that area don't recognize it. I don't think

0:23:38.960 --> 0:23:43.000
<v Speaker 2>there's any simple solution here, I think, you know, I

0:23:43.000 --> 0:23:45.200
<v Speaker 2>think we have to look where we can work with China,

0:23:45.240 --> 0:23:48.720
<v Speaker 2>and then we need to be clear where we have problems.

0:23:48.760 --> 0:23:51.240
<v Speaker 2>We have problems with them on what's called intellectual property,

0:23:51.560 --> 0:23:55.800
<v Speaker 2>stealing know how, technology and so forth. But you know,

0:23:55.840 --> 0:23:58.400
<v Speaker 2>we need to get rules in the relationship. I think

0:23:59.280 --> 0:24:03.400
<v Speaker 2>it is important to stabilize a relationship because increasingly our

0:24:03.440 --> 0:24:06.760
<v Speaker 2>military is focused on China, China's military is focused on us,

0:24:07.320 --> 0:24:10.040
<v Speaker 2>and you know, I write, I really want Americans to

0:24:10.119 --> 0:24:14.320
<v Speaker 2>understand how important what's going on with China is. That

0:24:14.400 --> 0:24:17.480
<v Speaker 2>it's not an easy there's not an easy solution to it.

0:24:18.040 --> 0:24:21.479
<v Speaker 2>But you hear the language, you see what's happening, and

0:24:21.560 --> 0:24:24.160
<v Speaker 2>it kind of has echoes of before the First World

0:24:24.160 --> 0:24:27.000
<v Speaker 2>War when they talk about great power competition. And so

0:24:27.320 --> 0:24:30.000
<v Speaker 2>we have to be very careful how we go forward

0:24:30.040 --> 0:24:35.280
<v Speaker 2>here because you know, China's economy probably within a decade,

0:24:35.280 --> 0:24:37.960
<v Speaker 2>will be larger than the US economy. They're embedded in

0:24:37.960 --> 0:24:40.440
<v Speaker 2>the world economy. We're embedded in the world economy. We're

0:24:40.520 --> 0:24:43.440
<v Speaker 2>very interdependent. We're competitors and rivals at the same time.

0:24:43.880 --> 0:24:46.800
<v Speaker 2>That is a complicated situation, but it's one that I

0:24:46.800 --> 0:24:51.240
<v Speaker 2>think Americans need to have an understanding of this complexity

0:24:51.480 --> 0:24:53.359
<v Speaker 2>so you can see try and see the whole picture,

0:24:53.440 --> 0:24:54.520
<v Speaker 2>not just part of the picture.

0:24:55.080 --> 0:24:58.040
<v Speaker 1>Let's move on to evs. In your book, you spend

0:24:58.040 --> 0:25:02.639
<v Speaker 1>some time on electric vehicle. Talk about Elon Musk and

0:25:02.680 --> 0:25:05.400
<v Speaker 1>the two men he partnered with to form this company

0:25:05.800 --> 0:25:09.040
<v Speaker 1>called Tesla, and how that's helping me shape the energy

0:25:09.080 --> 0:25:10.920
<v Speaker 1>map too. Right.

0:25:11.000 --> 0:25:15.800
<v Speaker 2>I loved my story of the origins of Tesla, which

0:25:15.920 --> 0:25:20.119
<v Speaker 2>is two guys from Silicon Valley had lunch with Elon Musk,

0:25:20.640 --> 0:25:22.320
<v Speaker 2>you know, early in the century, and they wanted to

0:25:22.359 --> 0:25:24.240
<v Speaker 2>try and sell them on the idea of an electric airplane,

0:25:24.400 --> 0:25:26.640
<v Speaker 2>and he says, I'm not interested in that. Then they said,

0:25:26.640 --> 0:25:28.919
<v Speaker 2>but what about electric car? You know, I might be

0:25:28.960 --> 0:25:32.040
<v Speaker 2>interested in that. And this fellow JB. Strawbo had this

0:25:32.119 --> 0:25:35.600
<v Speaker 2>idea that you could take lithium ion batteries that you

0:25:35.640 --> 0:25:37.719
<v Speaker 2>would use like in a cell phone or in a computer,

0:25:38.119 --> 0:25:41.200
<v Speaker 2>string them together and use them to power a car. Now,

0:25:41.800 --> 0:25:43.680
<v Speaker 2>the electric car. We had an electric car before. In

0:25:43.680 --> 0:25:46.400
<v Speaker 2>the United States. In nineteen hundred, there were more electric

0:25:46.400 --> 0:25:48.359
<v Speaker 2>cars on the streets of New York than there were

0:25:48.400 --> 0:25:51.840
<v Speaker 2>gasoline powered cars. And Thomas Edison was riding high in

0:25:51.840 --> 0:25:54.679
<v Speaker 2>the electric car, and then along came Henry Ford and

0:25:54.800 --> 0:25:58.399
<v Speaker 2>mass production the Model T, and it killed the electric car,

0:25:59.000 --> 0:26:02.160
<v Speaker 2>and it was dead for century. But now obviously it's

0:26:02.160 --> 0:26:04.639
<v Speaker 2>come back, and this idea that came out of that

0:26:04.760 --> 0:26:09.119
<v Speaker 2>lunch has now kind of changed the automobile industry worldwide

0:26:09.119 --> 0:26:12.480
<v Speaker 2>that all the major automobile makers now are investing in

0:26:12.520 --> 0:26:16.000
<v Speaker 2>electric cars. And there's another example of what we're talking about,

0:26:16.040 --> 0:26:19.840
<v Speaker 2>a stubborn person who really made a difference in Elon Musk.

0:26:20.240 --> 0:26:22.919
<v Speaker 2>That and his SpaceX. It's pretty amazing. So I have

0:26:23.960 --> 0:26:26.560
<v Speaker 2>this great photo in the book of Thomas Edison standing

0:26:26.600 --> 0:26:29.200
<v Speaker 2>by his car in like nineteen hundred, his electric car

0:26:29.560 --> 0:26:33.240
<v Speaker 2>and Elon Musk in almost exactly the same pose standing

0:26:33.280 --> 0:26:34.080
<v Speaker 2>next to his car.

0:26:34.480 --> 0:26:35.960
<v Speaker 3>And then also a man named.

0:26:35.840 --> 0:26:38.639
<v Speaker 2>Wang Gang who's kind of the Chinese the Elon Musk.

0:26:39.240 --> 0:26:40.760
<v Speaker 2>But you sort of look at it and it's like,

0:26:41.520 --> 0:26:45.840
<v Speaker 2>is Elon Musk Thomas Edison reincarnated? But he's you know,

0:26:45.880 --> 0:26:48.320
<v Speaker 2>he's there's another guy who's changed the world. If you

0:26:48.359 --> 0:26:50.080
<v Speaker 2>went back a decade and said, oh, the electric car

0:26:50.119 --> 0:26:52.359
<v Speaker 2>is going to become a really big thing, people say, ah,

0:26:52.520 --> 0:26:54.280
<v Speaker 2>now it's just you know it's just a toy thing

0:26:54.320 --> 0:26:59.080
<v Speaker 2>of Silicon Valley. Well, Volkswagen says it's going to eventually

0:26:59.080 --> 0:27:02.320
<v Speaker 2>only be producing electric vehicles at some point, and governments

0:27:02.320 --> 0:27:05.720
<v Speaker 2>are coming in really hard, really strong, with regulatory policies

0:27:05.960 --> 0:27:06.760
<v Speaker 2>to try and push that.

0:27:07.359 --> 0:27:11.520
<v Speaker 1>And you're listening to Daniel Jurgen his book The New Map, Energy,

0:27:11.600 --> 0:27:15.120
<v Speaker 1>Climate and the Clash of Nations. More of this remarkable

0:27:15.160 --> 0:27:38.159
<v Speaker 1>story of energy here on our American Stories, and we

0:27:38.200 --> 0:27:41.520
<v Speaker 1>continue with our American Stories. We're back with author, energy

0:27:41.520 --> 0:27:46.000
<v Speaker 1>expert and economic historian Daniel Jurgen discussing his new book,

0:27:46.080 --> 0:27:49.439
<v Speaker 1>a heck of his story called The New Map. Daniel,

0:27:49.440 --> 0:27:52.199
<v Speaker 1>we last talked about electric vehicles and how corporations and

0:27:52.240 --> 0:27:55.960
<v Speaker 1>governments are preparing for a complete transition. If you're taking

0:27:56.000 --> 0:27:58.240
<v Speaker 1>a long drive in this country, there's a gas station

0:27:58.400 --> 0:28:01.000
<v Speaker 1>every two minutes where you can fill up. But if

0:28:01.040 --> 0:28:04.040
<v Speaker 1>we moved entirely to electric cars, well, it would take

0:28:04.080 --> 0:28:06.280
<v Speaker 1>a lot of work to get there. Talk about some

0:28:06.320 --> 0:28:10.840
<v Speaker 1>of the challenges of creating an infrastructure for electric vehicles as.

0:28:10.680 --> 0:28:15.960
<v Speaker 2>You're talking about transforming a global industry that employs tens

0:28:15.960 --> 0:28:18.960
<v Speaker 2>of millions of people, and you know you need everything

0:28:19.000 --> 0:28:21.520
<v Speaker 2>from the lithium batteries and all the materials. By the way,

0:28:21.560 --> 0:28:25.160
<v Speaker 2>electric cars a lot of plastic is used in making

0:28:25.200 --> 0:28:30.080
<v Speaker 2>electric cars to the charging stations. That charging stations don't need,

0:28:30.240 --> 0:28:32.919
<v Speaker 2>you know, what happens to the gas stations all those people.

0:28:33.400 --> 0:28:37.840
<v Speaker 2>So I think you have politicians setting targets and we'll

0:28:37.840 --> 0:28:41.120
<v Speaker 2>here more targets, but I think getting there and getting

0:28:41.120 --> 0:28:44.200
<v Speaker 2>consumers to you know, that's still not clear how that's

0:28:44.200 --> 0:28:46.920
<v Speaker 2>going to happen. But you have governments kind of trying

0:28:46.960 --> 0:28:50.479
<v Speaker 2>to regulate it into happening. But if everybody tries to

0:28:50.840 --> 0:28:52.320
<v Speaker 2>kind of rush to the same side of the boat

0:28:52.360 --> 0:28:54.560
<v Speaker 2>at the same time, it can it can kind of

0:28:54.600 --> 0:28:57.840
<v Speaker 2>tip over because you need a lot of materials to

0:28:57.880 --> 0:29:01.360
<v Speaker 2>make this happen. You know, you hear these targets that

0:29:01.400 --> 0:29:05.800
<v Speaker 2>are coming out, and that combined with where the automobile

0:29:05.800 --> 0:29:08.200
<v Speaker 2>makers are investing, it's going to move in that direction.

0:29:08.520 --> 0:29:10.160
<v Speaker 3>But you're going to have to be I say this.

0:29:10.160 --> 0:29:12.120
<v Speaker 2>To you and to the listeners, You're going to have

0:29:12.160 --> 0:29:14.640
<v Speaker 2>to be pretty confident that you can go somewhere and

0:29:14.720 --> 0:29:17.200
<v Speaker 2>charge your car and you know, not run out of electricity.

0:29:17.240 --> 0:29:21.479
<v Speaker 2>So California has these targets to stop selling the internal

0:29:21.480 --> 0:29:24.920
<v Speaker 2>combustion gasoline cars in twenty thirty five. But California is

0:29:24.960 --> 0:29:28.440
<v Speaker 2>also having disruptions for their electricity supply, and you know

0:29:28.480 --> 0:29:30.720
<v Speaker 2>you're going to want to be confident that you can.

0:29:30.880 --> 0:29:33.120
<v Speaker 2>You know, when you want to charge up instead of

0:29:33.120 --> 0:29:35.080
<v Speaker 2>filler up, you'll say charger up, but you want to

0:29:35.120 --> 0:29:36.200
<v Speaker 2>be sure the charge is there.

0:29:36.800 --> 0:29:41.000
<v Speaker 1>Daniel, when talking about moving the automotive industry to electric cars, well,

0:29:41.000 --> 0:29:43.479
<v Speaker 1>you have to consider the cost of buying the cars,

0:29:43.960 --> 0:29:48.080
<v Speaker 1>making the cars, running them, and storing the energy. Can

0:29:48.120 --> 0:29:51.080
<v Speaker 1>you explain the comparison of costs? Tell that story.

0:29:52.000 --> 0:29:55.840
<v Speaker 2>Electric cars obviously they run electricity. It becomes very interesting

0:29:55.880 --> 0:29:58.080
<v Speaker 2>to do a comparison of costs, and a lot depends

0:29:58.120 --> 0:30:01.280
<v Speaker 2>upon the battery. It also depends whether you got a

0:30:01.480 --> 0:30:04.400
<v Speaker 2>tax credit from your federal government in the state government

0:30:04.480 --> 0:30:06.880
<v Speaker 2>to buy the car, and so forth. So all of

0:30:06.880 --> 0:30:08.400
<v Speaker 2>those things go into it. And then it's of course,

0:30:08.440 --> 0:30:10.960
<v Speaker 2>what does the electricity run on. Is it on wind

0:30:11.000 --> 0:30:13.640
<v Speaker 2>and solar or as in China, most electric cars are

0:30:13.640 --> 0:30:16.440
<v Speaker 2>actually running on coal because most of the electricity is still

0:30:16.440 --> 0:30:20.120
<v Speaker 2>generated by coal, so it's not as clear cut. And

0:30:20.160 --> 0:30:23.560
<v Speaker 2>then of course you also have the mining of the

0:30:23.600 --> 0:30:26.040
<v Speaker 2>stuff that you need to build the electric car, and

0:30:26.160 --> 0:30:29.080
<v Speaker 2>as I said before, you need plastics for the body

0:30:29.080 --> 0:30:33.120
<v Speaker 2>and so forth. So doing cost comparison and an energy

0:30:33.120 --> 0:30:37.760
<v Speaker 2>comparison and an emissions comparison is much more difficult than

0:30:37.880 --> 0:30:38.760
<v Speaker 2>people would think.

0:30:39.000 --> 0:30:40.960
<v Speaker 3>The other thing that really struck me is.

0:30:41.000 --> 0:30:44.440
<v Speaker 2>If all of the cars in the world today were

0:30:44.520 --> 0:30:47.960
<v Speaker 2>electric cars running on wind and solar, do you know

0:30:48.040 --> 0:30:52.520
<v Speaker 2>how much you'd reduce man made carbon emissions. You'd reduce

0:30:52.560 --> 0:30:56.720
<v Speaker 2>them by six percent. So people, again, that goes to perceptions.

0:30:56.760 --> 0:30:59.200
<v Speaker 2>People see cars, they go to the gasoline station, they

0:30:59.200 --> 0:31:02.600
<v Speaker 2>think that's the major source of greenhouse gases and so forth.

0:31:02.920 --> 0:31:07.280
<v Speaker 2>Cars only use twenty percent of total oil consumption. But

0:31:08.120 --> 0:31:10.240
<v Speaker 2>it's what's vivid, what's in front of people's eyes, that

0:31:10.960 --> 0:31:11.479
<v Speaker 2>stands out.

0:31:12.160 --> 0:31:15.200
<v Speaker 1>And you note by the way that China manufactures three

0:31:15.280 --> 0:31:19.000
<v Speaker 1>quarters of the lithium batteries in the world. China is

0:31:19.000 --> 0:31:22.080
<v Speaker 1>a major player in the places where the minerals are

0:31:22.160 --> 0:31:26.480
<v Speaker 1>needed to create these batteries, where their mind talk about that.

0:31:27.000 --> 0:31:30.080
<v Speaker 2>Certainly, what China has done is made themselves a very

0:31:30.080 --> 0:31:33.000
<v Speaker 2>strong player and what they call new energies. So seventy

0:31:33.040 --> 0:31:35.440
<v Speaker 2>percent of the solar panels in the world come from China.

0:31:35.480 --> 0:31:38.400
<v Speaker 2>Probably about another ten percent come from Chinese companies that

0:31:38.480 --> 0:31:42.240
<v Speaker 2>are in other countries that Chinese dominate the lithium ion

0:31:42.280 --> 0:31:45.360
<v Speaker 2>battery chain at least right now. They also a very

0:31:45.400 --> 0:31:49.440
<v Speaker 2>active around the world in carving out resources, and large

0:31:49.480 --> 0:31:52.000
<v Speaker 2>part of the world's cobalt supply comes from the Democratic

0:31:52.040 --> 0:31:55.680
<v Speaker 2>Republic of Congo, the second largest country and physical area

0:31:55.840 --> 0:31:58.880
<v Speaker 2>in Africa and one in which they are children who

0:31:58.920 --> 0:32:01.800
<v Speaker 2>are working in minds. So I think as the demand

0:32:01.920 --> 0:32:05.720
<v Speaker 2>grows for electric cars, for solar and so forth, there

0:32:05.720 --> 0:32:09.160
<v Speaker 2>will be more examination of the supply chains and what

0:32:09.320 --> 0:32:11.760
<v Speaker 2>call the supply chains. You know, because the wind is free,

0:32:12.280 --> 0:32:16.320
<v Speaker 2>the sun is free, but the metal, the plastics, the

0:32:16.360 --> 0:32:18.600
<v Speaker 2>minerals you need, all of those things have to come

0:32:18.600 --> 0:32:20.360
<v Speaker 2>from somewhere and they have to move by ships from

0:32:20.360 --> 0:32:23.479
<v Speaker 2>one place to another. So I think the scale of

0:32:23.680 --> 0:32:27.080
<v Speaker 2>really moving this direction, it's very large, and it's you know,

0:32:27.160 --> 0:32:31.800
<v Speaker 2>I write about earlier energy transitions. The first one started

0:32:31.840 --> 0:32:34.640
<v Speaker 2>in seventeen oh nine, in January seventeen oh nine, and

0:32:34.680 --> 0:32:37.680
<v Speaker 2>they normally take a long time, and you add new sources,

0:32:37.720 --> 0:32:40.520
<v Speaker 2>but you continue to use the current ones. The coal

0:32:40.560 --> 0:32:43.360
<v Speaker 2>as an example, it was in the nineteen sixties that

0:32:43.600 --> 0:32:45.960
<v Speaker 2>oil overtook coal as the world's number one energy resource.

0:32:46.040 --> 0:32:49.040
<v Speaker 2>But the world uses a lot more coal today, the world,

0:32:49.240 --> 0:32:50.680
<v Speaker 2>not the United States of the world than it did

0:32:50.680 --> 0:32:53.800
<v Speaker 2>in the nineteen sixties. So as we get the scale

0:32:53.840 --> 0:32:57.240
<v Speaker 2>of the as we build up, it's it's going to

0:32:57.320 --> 0:33:00.920
<v Speaker 2>kind of not ripple, but it be big waves through

0:33:00.920 --> 0:33:01.720
<v Speaker 2>the world economy.

0:33:02.320 --> 0:33:04.320
<v Speaker 1>And Daniel, as you point out, for a lot of

0:33:04.320 --> 0:33:08.040
<v Speaker 1>these developing countries, how do they go from burning wood

0:33:08.440 --> 0:33:11.280
<v Speaker 1>in their own homes to solar panels? Are we going

0:33:11.320 --> 0:33:14.200
<v Speaker 1>to let them go through the stages of development that

0:33:14.360 --> 0:33:16.600
<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world has gone through.

0:33:17.320 --> 0:33:20.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, this is you know, we're talking about the American story.

0:33:20.880 --> 0:33:23.239
<v Speaker 2>This is a story outside America, which you don't think

0:33:23.240 --> 0:33:25.200
<v Speaker 2>about it because it's so different. I mean, we haven't

0:33:25.240 --> 0:33:27.680
<v Speaker 2>been there for a century or century and a half.

0:33:28.960 --> 0:33:31.320
<v Speaker 2>Almost three billion people out of the seven point eight

0:33:31.360 --> 0:33:33.520
<v Speaker 2>billion people in the world use.

0:33:33.640 --> 0:33:36.760
<v Speaker 3>Wood, animal waste, crop waste to cook.

0:33:37.320 --> 0:33:39.680
<v Speaker 2>And the World Health Organization, which is now famous because

0:33:39.720 --> 0:33:42.920
<v Speaker 2>of COVID, says that indoor air pollution is the world's

0:33:43.160 --> 0:33:46.880
<v Speaker 2>number one health problem and it affects like three billion people,

0:33:47.440 --> 0:33:51.840
<v Speaker 2>number one environmental problem. And so those people that you know,

0:33:52.360 --> 0:33:56.320
<v Speaker 2>I've been in India and discussions with Indian government and

0:33:56.360 --> 0:34:01.280
<v Speaker 2>officials and Indian people there in India, they want commercial energy,

0:34:01.320 --> 0:34:04.320
<v Speaker 2>they want natural gas so that they can clean up

0:34:04.360 --> 0:34:07.480
<v Speaker 2>their air and help people so people are no longer

0:34:07.520 --> 0:34:10.839
<v Speaker 2>cooking with all these waste products. And so for them,

0:34:10.920 --> 0:34:13.799
<v Speaker 2>they look at a very different picture than let's say

0:34:14.239 --> 0:34:16.800
<v Speaker 2>somebody's sitting in Europe. I have a quote in the

0:34:17.080 --> 0:34:20.120
<v Speaker 2>new map from the Nigerian energy minister saying, it's fine

0:34:20.120 --> 0:34:22.200
<v Speaker 2>what they want to do in Netherlands in Germany, but

0:34:22.280 --> 0:34:24.680
<v Speaker 2>we have tens and tens and tens of millions of

0:34:24.760 --> 0:34:28.560
<v Speaker 2>port people. They need natural gas, they need commercial energy.

0:34:28.920 --> 0:34:31.920
<v Speaker 2>So it's a very different perspective and one that you know,

0:34:32.160 --> 0:34:33.680
<v Speaker 2>you don't hear in the United States because we don't

0:34:33.719 --> 0:34:35.680
<v Speaker 2>have the for the most part, we don't have those problems.

0:34:36.239 --> 0:34:39.400
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about another big shift in the energy world,

0:34:39.640 --> 0:34:42.640
<v Speaker 1>and that's auto tech. We're talking about Uber and ride

0:34:42.640 --> 0:34:46.400
<v Speaker 1>sharing and so much more. How might this transformation in

0:34:46.520 --> 0:34:50.480
<v Speaker 1>transportation as we know it affect us all? And why

0:34:50.480 --> 0:34:52.520
<v Speaker 1>did you write about uber in your book?

0:34:53.040 --> 0:34:55.560
<v Speaker 2>Uber is sort of like zoom. It became a verb.

0:34:55.640 --> 0:34:58.960
<v Speaker 2>Everybody knows the term now, and yet it's not so

0:34:59.080 --> 0:35:02.680
<v Speaker 2>long ago that a fellow, a Canadian engineer, was standing

0:35:02.760 --> 0:35:04.799
<v Speaker 2>on a street corner in San Francisco. He was late

0:35:04.840 --> 0:35:06.920
<v Speaker 2>for a date. This is two thousand and eight. He

0:35:06.960 --> 0:35:10.040
<v Speaker 2>couldn't get flagged down a taxi, but he had in

0:35:10.040 --> 0:35:12.279
<v Speaker 2>his pocket his new iPhone and he said, well, wait

0:35:12.320 --> 0:35:16.279
<v Speaker 2>a second, could we use the iPhones and not have

0:35:16.360 --> 0:35:18.560
<v Speaker 2>to call a taxi dispatcher who hangs up on you

0:35:18.600 --> 0:35:21.200
<v Speaker 2>because he or she is so overwhelmed with angry people

0:35:21.200 --> 0:35:21.759
<v Speaker 2>calling up.

0:35:22.200 --> 0:35:25.360
<v Speaker 3>And that was the origin of Uber.

0:35:25.719 --> 0:35:28.880
<v Speaker 2>And again when they started, people thought it was crazy,

0:35:28.920 --> 0:35:31.640
<v Speaker 2>But of course it's not crazy anymore. So I sort

0:35:31.640 --> 0:35:36.239
<v Speaker 2>of said, I can imagine, you know, if we sort

0:35:36.280 --> 0:35:39.120
<v Speaker 2>of think in a more linear way with electric cars,

0:35:39.120 --> 0:35:42.400
<v Speaker 2>we see them. You know, by twenty fifty, maybe half

0:35:42.719 --> 0:35:44.719
<v Speaker 2>a third to a half of the global automobile fleet

0:35:44.760 --> 0:35:47.399
<v Speaker 2>will be electric cars. But then let's do a thought

0:35:47.440 --> 0:35:50.480
<v Speaker 2>of experiment and think entirely differently. Let's imagine that you

0:35:50.520 --> 0:35:56.080
<v Speaker 2>canbine electric cars with ride hailing, with self driving autonomous vehicles,

0:35:56.680 --> 0:35:59.239
<v Speaker 2>and maybe you have a whole different vision of transportation

0:35:59.520 --> 0:36:01.359
<v Speaker 2>that is not the one that started with Henry Ford,

0:36:01.400 --> 0:36:02.719
<v Speaker 2>and it is the one we still have today where

0:36:02.760 --> 0:36:05.920
<v Speaker 2>you own your own car, and you know, you sort

0:36:05.960 --> 0:36:08.840
<v Speaker 2>of identify with your car. But rather we have a

0:36:09.360 --> 0:36:12.840
<v Speaker 2>world in which there are large fleets of self driving

0:36:14.560 --> 0:36:17.200
<v Speaker 2>cars that are that you just hail when you need them.

0:36:17.400 --> 0:36:20.040
<v Speaker 2>And so I had this whole other vision, you know,

0:36:20.080 --> 0:36:23.080
<v Speaker 2>to challenge thinking, because you need to continually challenge thinking,

0:36:23.880 --> 0:36:27.279
<v Speaker 2>called imagine this industry called auto tech. Think about it

0:36:27.320 --> 0:36:30.839
<v Speaker 2>as a merger of Silicon Valley and Detroit. That would

0:36:30.880 --> 0:36:32.719
<v Speaker 2>be a very different way that you know, you need

0:36:32.760 --> 0:36:34.960
<v Speaker 2>a car, Oh, here comes to ride hell or you

0:36:34.960 --> 0:36:35.359
<v Speaker 2>get in it.

0:36:35.560 --> 0:36:38.000
<v Speaker 1>I want to leave with one final question, Daniel, like

0:36:38.040 --> 0:36:40.680
<v Speaker 1>you to talk about this thing called the energy mix.

0:36:41.360 --> 0:36:45.000
<v Speaker 1>Where was it? Where is it? For everyone listening? Where

0:36:45.080 --> 0:36:45.600
<v Speaker 1>is it heading?

0:36:46.200 --> 0:36:48.720
<v Speaker 2>So we had this eighty seven trillion dollar world economy

0:36:48.880 --> 0:36:52.319
<v Speaker 2>before COVID eighty percent on oil, gas and coal, wind

0:36:52.360 --> 0:36:55.480
<v Speaker 2>and solar about four percent. So I don't you know,

0:36:55.520 --> 0:36:57.600
<v Speaker 2>I just think the numbers don't work to just say

0:36:57.600 --> 0:36:59.960
<v Speaker 2>we're going to completely turn that around in thirty year.

0:37:00.280 --> 0:37:03.160
<v Speaker 2>So I think the energy mix to use the term

0:37:03.200 --> 0:37:05.560
<v Speaker 2>that gets used, will be mixed. There will be much

0:37:05.560 --> 0:37:08.440
<v Speaker 2>more renewables, there will be breakthroughs in technology, there will

0:37:08.480 --> 0:37:12.360
<v Speaker 2>be new things, maybe hydrogen batteries that can store electricity,

0:37:12.719 --> 0:37:14.719
<v Speaker 2>but I think oil and gas the convention will also

0:37:14.760 --> 0:37:16.720
<v Speaker 2>be part of the energy mix as we go forward,

0:37:16.760 --> 0:37:20.400
<v Speaker 2>So it will be very mixed. And that mixed is

0:37:20.440 --> 0:37:24.000
<v Speaker 2>what our economies will require to operate, and that will

0:37:24.200 --> 0:37:27.719
<v Speaker 2>what we require to maintain people's living standards. But I

0:37:27.719 --> 0:37:30.520
<v Speaker 2>will continue to look for innovation. I'll continue to look

0:37:30.520 --> 0:37:32.920
<v Speaker 2>for big companies doing interesting things. And I'll continue to

0:37:32.960 --> 0:37:36.560
<v Speaker 2>look for those stubborn Americans who have an idea that

0:37:36.640 --> 0:37:39.439
<v Speaker 2>everybody thinks is ridiculous, and then they come along and change.

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<v Speaker 3>At least they're part of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Well special thanks to Daniel Jergan his terrific storytelling in

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<v Speaker 1>a book called The New Map, Energy, Climate and the

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<v Speaker 1>Clash of Nations edit at Amazon dot com. Hey go

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<v Speaker 1>to a bookstore, buy one, and buy one for a

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<v Speaker 1>family member or friend. They'll enjoy this read. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>one of those things where if you don't think you're

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<v Speaker 1>interested in the subject, it's the people. It's the people

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<v Speaker 1>in this book that are so fascinating. Daniel Jergen The

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<v Speaker 1>New Map, the story of energy in the United States

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<v Speaker 1>and around the world. Here on our American Stories