WEBVTT - NFL Week 11 Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 26) 0:00:09.280 --> 0:00:12.280 Hey everyone, welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:12.360 --> 0:00:15.000 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan 0:00:15.080 --> 0:00:17.040 Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.560 Harris Hadi. It is time for our early look at 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:21.400 next week's lines, and with me to break it all 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:24.000 down is Seawan Green, the co creator and co host 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:26.799 of the Sports Gamling podcast. You can find him on 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.480 Twitter at Shawn T. Green. Shawn, thanks for coming back 0:00:29.520 --> 0:00:29.800 on the show. 0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:32.479 How you doing, I'm doing great, man. Yeah, just a 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:35.400 kind of crazy weekend. You know. He saw a lot 0:00:35.479 --> 0:00:38.360 of big dogs win out right, and that always makes 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:40.720 things interesting. As far as the next week's. 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:43.760 Spreads, I have to imagine that the books had a monstrous, 0:00:44.120 --> 0:00:47.600 monstrous weekend, right, I mean the Chiefs and nonetheless the 0:00:47.720 --> 0:00:50.320 Chiefs right where everybody was probably you know, on the 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:53.199 money line I'm sure, and taking them in parlays and 0:00:53.200 --> 0:00:55.240 stuff like that. I mean, they must have totally cleaned 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:55.800 up this weekend. 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:58.120 Yeah, I mean there's a couple, there's probably like a 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:00.760 couple of sharp people who had the Dolph and Colts 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:05.959 or sorry, I mean the Dolphins and Falcons moneyline parlay together. 0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:07.840 But yeah, I think the. 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:10.680 Chiefs were probably in everyone's teaser a lot of moneyline 0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:14.160 Parlay's probably got killed, and then you know you got 0:01:14.200 --> 0:01:15.640 the I mean even the. 0:01:15.600 --> 0:01:17.720 Dallas Cowboys at home Sunday night. 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:21.440 I feel like that's a big public opportunity and Vikings 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:22.880 winning out right must have heard them. 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:25.600 Yeah, this is how Vegas builds buildings. Man, this is 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:28.120 what it's all about. Well, let's see how this weekend, 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:31.280 this upcoming week looks so as usual. Now, Shawn has 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:34.080 been here twice already. I love it for the Monday show, 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:35.880 so I don't really need to explain this to him, 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:37.640 but I will explain it to you in cases is 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:40.600 your first time listening. We're going to go through each 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:43.319 game on the week eleven Slate going to be using 0:01:43.400 --> 0:01:46.280 the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. Now, the 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:49.280 consensus odds are just the aggregation of odds that are 0:01:49.280 --> 0:01:51.760 available in the market, so there are always differences in 0:01:51.800 --> 0:01:54.240 the various sportsbooks. So if you're thinking about betting on 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:56.320 any particular game, and some of the games are going 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:57.880 to hear, I'm sure Shawn and I are going to 0:01:57.920 --> 0:01:59.640 be like, yeah, get in on that number now, because 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:01.840 it's probably going to change. You want to look at 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:04.720 the various sportsbooks to make sure you're getting the best odds. 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:06.320 And if you want to see how any of the 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:08.959 top sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet 0:02:09.000 --> 0:02:11.480 at any given time, bettingpros dot Com is going to 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:13.359 show you that too. All right, Tom, let's dive in 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:15.880 here with the Thursday night game. We've got the Steelers 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:18.720 at the Browns. The Browns here laying two and a half, 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:21.280 the over under at forty and a half, both teams 0:02:21.280 --> 0:02:23.480 coming off real big wins. Here, the Steelers taking care 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:26.239 of business again at home. They sneak past the Rams, 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:29.360 largely on the strength of their defense. Meanwhile, the Browns 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:33.200 surprising three point favorites against the Bills and they win 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:37.240 by exactly that amount. There's really one impressive unit I 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:40.480 feel like among these two teams, and it's the Steelers defense. 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:43.200 Since they added Minka Fitzpatrick, they've been a different team. 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:45.640 Every other unit on both sides of the ball is 0:02:45.680 --> 0:02:48.320 just kind of meh in my opinion. So how do 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:50.320 you feel about this one? Brown's laying just under a 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:52.239 field goal at home on Thursday night two and a 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:54.480 half and the over under at forty and a half. 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:57.320 Yeah, I mean this is interesting. 0:02:57.440 --> 0:02:59.959 I mean, this is basically what the Bills Browns gave 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:03.720 opened up last week. It did get to three. I'm 0:03:03.800 --> 0:03:06.919 kind of surprised it wasn't. I guess I thought it 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:09.880 would be closer to a pick if I was, if 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:12.520 I was grading this game, because yeah, you said, you 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:15.639 nailed it. The one impressive unit is the Steelers defense, 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:19.840 and it's really impressive. I mean they're creating turnovers, they're 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:26.480 scoring on defense. Mason Rudolph has really struggled. I think, Yeah, 0:03:26.520 --> 0:03:28.399 I mean, it's gonna be an interesting game. But I'm 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:31.000 surprised the Steelers are getting points here. I thought this 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:33.080 would be closer to a pick them. But I guess 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:35.480 the public is still kind of enjoying backing the Browns. 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:38.120 So yeah, that's probably where the two and a half 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:38.520 comes in. 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:41.200 Yeah, I was a little surprised by it too, But 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:43.840 I feel like I'm usually surprised at the Browns lines, 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:47.120 like I feel like they always should be worse, especially 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:49.720 because I feel like the general perception is from the 0:03:49.760 --> 0:03:51.800 public is that they they you know, they were all in. 0:03:51.840 --> 0:03:54.000 I say this pretty much every week, but they were 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:57.120 all in on the Browns preseason and early on, and 0:03:57.160 --> 0:03:59.080 you know, if you were a public better your heart 0:03:59.200 --> 0:04:01.000 just has to be and then you just got to 0:04:01.040 --> 0:04:03.120 be so off the Browns. So they make these lines. 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:05.440 I mean, I guess that make you want to pick 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:07.880 against the Browns, but I feel like the natural inclination 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:10.160 of the public would be to pick against the Browns 0:04:10.200 --> 0:04:12.720 at this point, So I'm never sure why they're like this. 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:16.280 And again, you know the fact that the Steelers won. Uh, 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.960 you know, I'm not all that surprised, necessarily as the 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:22.760 game unfolded, because again that the Rams offensive line they 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:25.000 sustained more injuries, so you saw the defense sort of 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:27.200 go after them. But I agree with you, I did 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:28.960 not expect to see this. It's not a huge deal 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:31.520 if it's under you know, the key number of three, necessarily, 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:33.479 but certainly I expected it to be closer to a 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:36.000 pick them. Early money is coming in on the Steelers, 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:38.880 as you might expect, both the number of bets and 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:41.320 the amount of money being wagered. So I expect that 0:04:41.400 --> 0:04:43.760 will be a popular line, and I think it's probably 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:46.919 going to move towards the Steelers, although it probably won't 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:48.880 make that big a difference in terms of you know 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:51.400 what it actually means. So long as it stays below 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:54.560 the key number of three, let's move on. Oh go ahead, sorry, yeah. 0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:55.200 Oh, I was just gonna say. 0:04:55.200 --> 0:04:57.479 It must be everyone who you know has all the 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:00.280 browns of their fantasy team, like not giving up. I mean, 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:02.000 if you have Odell Beckham junior, you just have to 0:05:02.080 --> 0:05:04.680 ride the season out and hope he hope he goes off. 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:07.680 But yeah, every week I get yelled at. You know 0:05:07.920 --> 0:05:11.400 I rank for Fantasy pros. I'm a ranker, and you 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:13.400 know I'm in the top ten for the season in accuracy. 0:05:13.440 --> 0:05:15.520 But every week I get people yelling at me about 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:18.360 where I'm ranking Odell Beckham and it's justifiable. I get it. Well, 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:21.360 hopefully this is the beginning of a turnaround, although of 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:24.120 course the Steelers defense is not exactly the easiest matchup. 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:26.440 Let's move on to the next game, which I don't 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:28.600 think we can really talk about too much because there 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:30.720 are no lines as far as I'm seeing, neither on 0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:33.719 our consensus anywhere or on any book that I've seen, 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:37.000 which is the Cowboys at the Lions. There's no line 0:05:37.040 --> 0:05:39.680 available because we don't know who's going to be starting 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:43.400 at quarterback. Right now. You had Jeff Driscoll this past 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:46.720 weekend for the Lions at quarterback in relief of Matthew Stafford, 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:49.760 who's dealing with fractures in his back. And all I've 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:52.560 heard is it's the quote good type of fracture, which 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:55.400 I don't really think that anybody who's not suffering from 0:05:55.440 --> 0:05:58.119 a fractured back should be able to say that. But again, 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:00.320 this is something where he's not ruled out this week, 0:06:00.320 --> 0:06:03.600 and again he was only ruled out on Sunday this 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:05.440 past week. It wasn't like coming in, it was like, 0:06:05.480 --> 0:06:07.039 oh man, it was all of a sudden. It leaked 0:06:07.080 --> 0:06:09.280 on Saturday with an Ian Rappaport tweet that like, oh 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:12.520 there's serious concern about his availability, and then on Sunday 0:06:12.520 --> 0:06:14.320 it was just like, all right, he's out. So look, 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:17.160 you know, I guess the the easiest way to analyze 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:19.400 this is maybe, you know, you think about the Cowboys here, 0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:21.520 coming off a tough loss against the Vikings, as we 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:23.800 talked about, you've got to win this game for the 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:27.080 Cowboys on the road. I mean, where do you expect 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:29.960 this line to be. Let's assume Stafford plays at this point, 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:31.640 I mean, where would you expect the line to be 0:06:32.279 --> 0:06:34.440 with the Lions at home against the Cowboys. 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:37.120 Yeah, I think with Stafford in there, it'll probably be 0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:42.120 Cowboys like minus three somewhere around there. But you know, 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:44.640 once Driscoll gets announced, I wouldn't be surprised if it 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:48.640 shoots up closer to six. Yeah, and maybe, but yeah, 0:06:48.720 --> 0:06:51.440 I mean the thing is, if Stafford does come back, 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:53.599 he's gonna still be kind of banged up, and you 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:56.280 gotta you gotta be concerned that he finishes the game. 0:06:56.400 --> 0:06:59.000 So either way, I I have a feeling a that 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:02.200 Driscoll's going to be starter later in the week and 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:05.320 be that the line will probably close closer to six. 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:07.720 If I had a guess, Yeah, I think that's probably right. 0:07:07.720 --> 0:07:09.880 I was thinking roughly a field goal. I could see 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:12.000 it maybe coming in under. The one thing to monitor, 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:14.360 by the way, with the Cowboys is that Zach Martin 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:17.000 sustained an injury yesterday I think was his elbow. I 0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:19.400 don't know if his availability is going to be impacted here, 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:22.040 but any injury on that offensive line for the Cowboys 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:24.840 kind of right, it drastically affects how they performed. You 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:27.840 saw it when Tarren Smith was out and Lil Collin, 0:07:27.960 --> 0:07:29.760 so you know you gotta be careful there. But in 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:31.400 the meantime, it's obviously not a game that you can 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:33.680 really go full bore into. But I agree with that. 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:36.360 I would expect roughly a field goal laying and another 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:38.960 three points if Driscoll's named the starter. All right, let's 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:41.240 move on here to the Jaguars that the Colts. Colts 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:43.840 are laying three with the over under at forty four. 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:46.080 We talked about it earlier. The Colt's coming off an 0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:50.280 absolutely disastrous loss against the Dolphins. With Brian Hoyer under center, 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:53.440 he throws three picks. It's unclear if Jacoby Brissett is 0:07:53.440 --> 0:07:54.960 going to be back for this one. He was trending 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:57.120 in the right direction with that mcl sprain, and then 0:07:57.120 --> 0:07:59.680 he was ruled out on Saturday night, not sort of, 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:01.440 you know, a game time decision, but then it came 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:03.880 out on Saturday. Now there's sort of rumors that he 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:06.440 may not be ready for this one, which frankly I 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:09.000 expected going. I mean, in mcl strain, no matter what 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.400 it is, it's not something that you can just bounce 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:13.200 right back from it, something where it needs to take 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:16.320 a little time. But anyway, he is up in the air. Meanwhile, 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:18.680 the Jaguars coming off of bye here they're turning back 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:21.960 to Nick Foles. There's all this uncertainty at QB. But 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:23.800 how do you feel about a Colt saying three at 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:25.720 home over under a forty four? 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:26.120 Yeah? 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:28.680 This is interesting because I think last week, and you know, 0:08:28.720 --> 0:08:31.640 we talked about it on my podcast that the that 0:08:31.720 --> 0:08:35.040 Brian Hoyer laying ten and a half was the craziest 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:38.040 line I've seen in a long time. I mean, Brian 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:40.600 Hoyer is a huge step down from Jacoby Brissett. And 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:44.320 it's it's interesting because I think at least the public's 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:47.600 perception or the way they're handicapping these games, they haven't 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:51.600 really handicapped Jacoby Brissett as the legit starter that the 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.480 guy is. They kind of are still handicapping him. It 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:57.040 seems as like a backup quarterback. And there's definitely been 0:08:57.160 --> 0:09:00.680 value on the Colts early in the season, and even 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:04.160 here it doesn't seem again, if Jacoby Brissett isn't playing, 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:07.880 I think minus three is kind of a weird number. 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:10.240 I do think it'll probably close at minus three. I 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:12.480 don't see this moving one way or the other. Because 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:15.120 you have Nick Foles coming off that injury, and so 0:09:15.200 --> 0:09:17.680 I think they're kind of defaulting on like, hey, division game, 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:21.000 give them the three points. But yeah, I mean Brian 0:09:21.040 --> 0:09:24.200 Hoyer as a favorite is that's an interesting bet for sure. 0:09:24.600 --> 0:09:27.360 So do you feel comfortable with the Colts laying three 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:28.680 if it is per set? 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:30.640 Uh? No, I wouldn't. 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:33.800 I mean, just because I'm kind of worried about I mean, 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:36.600 oh sorry, if it's Jacoby Brissett, yeah, yeah, if it's 0:09:36.600 --> 0:09:39.320 pre set, yeah, I mean I haven't broken down the 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:42.199 game completely, but minus three to me makes sense if. 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:44.560 Jacoby Brissett is the startup. But if he's not, I 0:09:44.559 --> 0:09:46.600 don't think they're adjusting enough for Brian Hoyer. 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:50.000 Yeah, I mean, right now, from what I'm looking at, 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:53.760 You've got so much money coming in on the Jaguars 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:56.520 at this point, despite the fact that a majority of 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:58.839 bets are on the Cults. So my guess is that 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:01.560 people in the No Problem think that Brissett is not 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:03.760 going to suit up. That would actually be what I 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:07.959 think as well. So you know, for me, if I'm 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:09.959 looking at this number and I want to get into 0:10:09.960 --> 0:10:12.640 this game, I do it now, because again, if Brissett 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:15.520 comes in, that bet looks a lot worse for sure. 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:18.360 Let's move on here to our next game, the Broncos 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:21.400 at the Vikings. The Vikings here are laying nine and 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:23.679 the over unders pretty low at thirty eight and a half. 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:26.760 Vikings coming off that huge win against the Cowboys, despite 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:29.520 being down Adam Thielen, they'll now you know, they come home, 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:31.720 they take on the Broncos before they get their buy 0:10:32.080 --> 0:10:34.520 the Broncos meanwhile, or with Brandon Allen last week with 0:10:34.640 --> 0:10:36.400 Joe Flack and I are they get the win against 0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:39.160 the Browns doing very little on offense. Now you know 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:41.400 you've got the bye coming up. Of course, as I said, 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:43.640 with the Vikings, so you know it should be an 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:46.640 easy matchup. You could see this being a letdown game 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:48.640 right where they're just kind of looking past them. But 0:10:48.960 --> 0:10:51.720 we did say the same thing essentially about the Ravens 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:53.640 kind of coming in not with the bye coming up 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:57.040 right off that giant win against the Pats, maybe looking 0:10:57.080 --> 0:10:59.040 past the Bengals. But how do you feel here Vikings 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:00.959 laying nine over on at thirty eight and a half. 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:04.600 Yeah, I think it kind of makes sense that they 0:11:04.720 --> 0:11:07.720 price it here because everyone saw the Vikings take care 0:11:07.720 --> 0:11:10.200 of the Cowboys on prime time, so that always gives 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:13.560 you a little bit of added juice. The Broncos coming 0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:17.119 off the bye that's kind of interesting. Their defense seemingly 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:18.760 has kind of come together. 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:20.360 Yeah, you nailed it. 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:23.360 Their offense didn't do much, but it did feel like 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:25.000 Alan came in gave them. 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:26.040 A little bit of a spark. 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:28.800 We see that a lot of times, like first time 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:32.400 Starter comes in and kind of exceeds expectations a little bit, 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:34.280 then they get some film on them and they kind 0:11:34.280 --> 0:11:37.240 of shut them down. I think they're not factoring in 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:39.600 the bye week enough for the Broncos because they did 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:41.960 have They're going to have two weeks here to prepare 0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:45.280 for the Vikings, so I think that will help them. 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:47.520 I wouldn't be surprised if this gets bet down a 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:50.920 little bit closer to seven, but it's certainly not gonna 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:55.000 I think at seven it would get pounded on the Viking, 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:57.440 so I think it'll definitely stay at two scores. 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:00.720 Yeah. I mean, look, it's been trending down sort of, 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:02.240 so that's a good call. I mean, I think the 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:04.360 look aheadline might have been ten and a half when 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.959 it first done, and even earlier today when I took 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:08.559 a look at the consensus lines. It was nine and 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:10.960 a half, so it's clearly being bet down. I agree, 0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:12.400 I don't think it's going to get all the way 0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:14.120 down there to like a field goal or anything like that. 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:15.800 It's a tough spot. I don't This is not a 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:17.480 game that I like, right, It's not a game where 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:19.440 you look at it and you're like, well, you know, 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:22.520 the Vikings they're clearly the superior team. But again you've 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:25.559 got the variables, which is a very easy look ahead 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:28.160 spot for the Vikings. A team coming off a bye, 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:30.720 they get an extra week to prepare, not only defensively, 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:33.079 and their defense remain strong because they wound up keeping 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:36.320 you know, Chris Harris and they wound up keeping vond 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:38.160 Miller and everything like that. So they're in a good 0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:41.280 spot here. But again, it's really tough because you know, 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:43.880 you don't really want to trust a Brandon Allen lead 0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:47.959 offense going in on the road, right, So it's a 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.120 game where you know, I don't really feel comfortable with 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:53.280 it yet, But I agree, it's something where you know, 0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:56.160 I'm not surprised that it got bet down from a 0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:58.560 probable high of what I'm seeing of the Look headline 0:12:58.600 --> 0:13:01.280 of ten and a half on here to the Texans 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:03.520 at the Ravens Ravens lank four and a half. The 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:05.680 over under at fifty and a half. Now, this is 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:07.679 up the over under at least from the Look headline 0:13:07.679 --> 0:13:09.319 which was forty nine. So it's up a point and 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:13.040 a half there. The Ravens, as we discussed, absolutely demolished 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:15.720 the Bengals every facet of the game, and that was 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.000 coming off the mantrous win against the Patriots again where 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:19.840 I kind of felt like this would be a look headline. 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:25.520 Actually liked the Bengals getting ten. That was a poor decision. Yeah. Meanwhile, 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:27.720 the Texans, you like, they're coming off the by after 0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:30.800 the winning London against the Jaguars. They've been banged up 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:32.880 on the offensive line. They've also been banged up on 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:35.520 defense in their secondary, but they're probably going to get 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:38.160 a bit healthier here. Wolf Fuller is already practicing, so 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:40.520 he may come back. So this is a pretty interesting 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:42.120 game coming in. How do you feel about the Ravens 0:13:42.160 --> 0:13:43.719 lank four and a half with the over under now 0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:45.400 moving up at fifty and a half. 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:50.120 Yeah, I mean this kind of seems like, yeah, probably 0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:52.720 the right price here, you got an AFC matchup, you 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:55.080 got the like you said, Texans coming off the by 0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:58.240 neutral field to say the Ravens are a point and 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:00.880 a half better that that kind of makes sense to me. 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:04.160 Certainly everyone's gonna want a piece of the Ravens, but 0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:06.120 so you have to give the Texans a little bit 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:10.400 more than the field goal to appetize betters there. Yeah, 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:11.880 I mean, this just seems like a great game. I 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:15.439 guess I'd be surprised if you get any crazy movement 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:17.280 one way or the other. Like, it feels like this 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:19.280 is probably where the the. 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:20.200 Price is going to close. 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:22.280 It's definitely not going to get up to a touchdown 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:25.360 and maybe it gets down to four three and a half, 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:28.040 but nothing, It's definitely not going to get down to 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:28.640 a field goal. 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.440 Yeah, it's gonna be it's going to close between four 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:32.840 and five. I mean, it's going to be one of 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:34.640 the dead numbers where you know you're not going to 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.440 really feel all that comfortable with whatever it's going to be. 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:39.760 But in the end, yeah, this is a tough game. 0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:42.000 It's a really tough game. I mean the Ravens, you know, 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:45.000 you want to feel like maybe they're not quite as 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:48.120 good as they've shown lately. But I think they really are. 0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:50.840 Their defense in particular is really starting to gel as 0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:55.000 they've gotten healthier at cornerback. They're just playing incredibly well. 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:57.360 And you know, if the Texans, you got to watch 0:14:57.360 --> 0:14:59.400 the Texans offensive line right now, because if they are 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:01.320 still banged up, that's gonna make it a tough day 0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:02.440 for Deshaun Watson. 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:04.760 But yeah, I mean really normally, the rule for me 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:07.360 is what the Texans has just been. If they had 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:09.320 the team they're playing has a pass rush and is 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:12.520 going to get pressure on Deshaun Watson, then fade them, 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:17.320 you know, but it's gonna be interesting. I'll probably wait 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:19.360 to like make my pick to see, Like you said, 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:21.680 the offensive line health that could be big and the 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:25.360 Ravens defense seemed a little bit fraudulent early, but again 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:26.880 they've kind of figured it out lately. 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:27.320 For sure. 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:29.680 Yeah, they've geled. I mean I keep waiting for that 0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:31.800 letdown game from the Ravens. Like you know, you saw 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:33.680 that game against the Browns earlier in the year where 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:35.040 you just were like, oh, the Ravens are going to 0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:37.040 demolish them and then they just kind of laid an egg. 0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:39.280 I keep waiting for that game, but I kind of 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.360 now feel like I'm gonna be waiting for a while 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:43.880 to get there because they are playing incredibly well. So 0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:45.720 this is a game where I agree if you do 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:47.800 want to bet it, it's probably something where you need 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:50.360 to wait as long as possible because the health of 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:53.120 the Texans in particular is going to really determine I 0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:55.440 think how I feel about this game. 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