Speaker 1: Hey everyone, welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan
Speaker 1: Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan
Speaker 1: Harris Hadi. It is time for our early look at
Speaker 1: next week's lines, and with me to break it all
Speaker 1: down is Seawan Green, the co creator and co host
Speaker 1: of the Sports Gamling podcast. You can find him on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Shawn T. Green. Shawn, thanks for coming back
Speaker 1: on the show.
Speaker 2: How you doing, I'm doing great, man. Yeah, just a
Speaker 2: kind of crazy weekend. You know. He saw a lot
Speaker 2: of big dogs win out right, and that always makes
Speaker 2: things interesting. As far as the next week's.
Speaker 1: Spreads, I have to imagine that the books had a monstrous,
Speaker 1: monstrous weekend, right, I mean the Chiefs and nonetheless the
Speaker 1: Chiefs right where everybody was probably you know, on the
Speaker 1: money line I'm sure, and taking them in parlays and
Speaker 1: stuff like that. I mean, they must have totally cleaned
Speaker 1: up this weekend.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's a couple, there's probably like a
Speaker 3: couple of sharp people who had the Dolph and Colts
Speaker 3: or sorry, I mean the Dolphins and Falcons moneyline parlay together.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think the.
Speaker 3: Chiefs were probably in everyone's teaser a lot of moneyline
Speaker 3: Parlay's probably got killed, and then you know you got
Speaker 3: the I mean even the.
Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys at home Sunday night.
Speaker 3: I feel like that's a big public opportunity and Vikings
Speaker 3: winning out right must have heard them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is how Vegas builds buildings. Man, this is
Speaker 1: what it's all about. Well, let's see how this weekend,
Speaker 1: this upcoming week looks so as usual. Now, Shawn has
Speaker 1: been here twice already. I love it for the Monday show,
Speaker 1: so I don't really need to explain this to him,
Speaker 1: but I will explain it to you in cases is
Speaker 1: your first time listening. We're going to go through each
Speaker 1: game on the week eleven Slate going to be using
Speaker 1: the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. Now, the
Speaker 1: consensus odds are just the aggregation of odds that are
Speaker 1: available in the market, so there are always differences in
Speaker 1: the various sportsbooks. So if you're thinking about betting on
Speaker 1: any particular game, and some of the games are going
Speaker 1: to hear, I'm sure Shawn and I are going to
Speaker 1: be like, yeah, get in on that number now, because
Speaker 1: it's probably going to change. You want to look at
Speaker 1: the various sportsbooks to make sure you're getting the best odds.
Speaker 1: And if you want to see how any of the
Speaker 1: top sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet
Speaker 1: at any given time, bettingpros dot Com is going to
Speaker 1: show you that too. All right, Tom, let's dive in
Speaker 1: here with the Thursday night game. We've got the Steelers
Speaker 1: at the Browns. The Browns here laying two and a half,
Speaker 1: the over under at forty and a half, both teams
Speaker 1: coming off real big wins. Here, the Steelers taking care
Speaker 1: of business again at home. They sneak past the Rams,
Speaker 1: largely on the strength of their defense. Meanwhile, the Browns
Speaker 1: surprising three point favorites against the Bills and they win
Speaker 1: by exactly that amount. There's really one impressive unit I
Speaker 1: feel like among these two teams, and it's the Steelers defense.
Speaker 1: Since they added Minka Fitzpatrick, they've been a different team.
Speaker 1: Every other unit on both sides of the ball is
Speaker 1: just kind of meh in my opinion. So how do
Speaker 1: you feel about this one? Brown's laying just under a
Speaker 1: field goal at home on Thursday night two and a
Speaker 1: half and the over under at forty and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is interesting.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is basically what the Bills Browns gave
Speaker 3: opened up last week. It did get to three. I'm
Speaker 3: kind of surprised it wasn't. I guess I thought it
Speaker 3: would be closer to a pick if I was, if
Speaker 3: I was grading this game, because yeah, you said, you
Speaker 3: nailed it. The one impressive unit is the Steelers defense,
Speaker 3: and it's really impressive. I mean they're creating turnovers, they're
Speaker 3: scoring on defense. Mason Rudolph has really struggled. I think, Yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean, it's gonna be an interesting game. But I'm
Speaker 3: surprised the Steelers are getting points here. I thought this
Speaker 3: would be closer to a pick them. But I guess
Speaker 3: the public is still kind of enjoying backing the Browns.
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's probably where the two and a half
Speaker 2: comes in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was a little surprised by it too, But
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm usually surprised at the Browns lines,
Speaker 1: like I feel like they always should be worse, especially
Speaker 1: because I feel like the general perception is from the
Speaker 1: public is that they they you know, they were all in.
Speaker 1: I say this pretty much every week, but they were
Speaker 1: all in on the Browns preseason and early on, and
Speaker 1: you know, if you were a public better your heart
Speaker 1: just has to be and then you just got to
Speaker 1: be so off the Browns. So they make these lines.
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess that make you want to pick
Speaker 1: against the Browns, but I feel like the natural inclination
Speaker 1: of the public would be to pick against the Browns
Speaker 1: at this point, So I'm never sure why they're like this.
Speaker 1: And again, you know the fact that the Steelers won. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not all that surprised, necessarily as the
Speaker 1: game unfolded, because again that the Rams offensive line they
Speaker 1: sustained more injuries, so you saw the defense sort of
Speaker 1: go after them. But I agree with you, I did
Speaker 1: not expect to see this. It's not a huge deal
Speaker 1: if it's under you know, the key number of three, necessarily,
Speaker 1: but certainly I expected it to be closer to a
Speaker 1: pick them. Early money is coming in on the Steelers,
Speaker 1: as you might expect, both the number of bets and
Speaker 1: the amount of money being wagered. So I expect that
Speaker 1: will be a popular line, and I think it's probably
Speaker 1: going to move towards the Steelers, although it probably won't
Speaker 1: make that big a difference in terms of you know
Speaker 1: what it actually means. So long as it stays below
Speaker 1: the key number of three, let's move on. Oh go ahead, sorry, yeah.
Speaker 2: Oh, I was just gonna say.
Speaker 3: It must be everyone who you know has all the
Speaker 3: browns of their fantasy team, like not giving up. I mean,
Speaker 3: if you have Odell Beckham junior, you just have to
Speaker 3: ride the season out and hope he hope he goes off.
Speaker 1: But yeah, every week I get yelled at. You know
Speaker 1: I rank for Fantasy pros. I'm a ranker, and you
Speaker 1: know I'm in the top ten for the season in accuracy.
Speaker 1: But every week I get people yelling at me about
Speaker 1: where I'm ranking Odell Beckham and it's justifiable. I get it. Well,
Speaker 1: hopefully this is the beginning of a turnaround, although of
Speaker 1: course the Steelers defense is not exactly the easiest matchup.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the next game, which I don't
Speaker 1: think we can really talk about too much because there
Speaker 1: are no lines as far as I'm seeing, neither on
Speaker 1: our consensus anywhere or on any book that I've seen,
Speaker 1: which is the Cowboys at the Lions. There's no line
Speaker 1: available because we don't know who's going to be starting
Speaker 1: at quarterback. Right now. You had Jeff Driscoll this past
Speaker 1: weekend for the Lions at quarterback in relief of Matthew Stafford,
Speaker 1: who's dealing with fractures in his back. And all I've
Speaker 1: heard is it's the quote good type of fracture, which
Speaker 1: I don't really think that anybody who's not suffering from
Speaker 1: a fractured back should be able to say that. But again,
Speaker 1: this is something where he's not ruled out this week,
Speaker 1: and again he was only ruled out on Sunday this
Speaker 1: past week. It wasn't like coming in, it was like,
Speaker 1: oh man, it was all of a sudden. It leaked
Speaker 1: on Saturday with an Ian Rappaport tweet that like, oh
Speaker 1: there's serious concern about his availability, and then on Sunday
Speaker 1: it was just like, all right, he's out. So look,
Speaker 1: you know, I guess the the easiest way to analyze
Speaker 1: this is maybe, you know, you think about the Cowboys here,
Speaker 1: coming off a tough loss against the Vikings, as we
Speaker 1: talked about, you've got to win this game for the
Speaker 1: Cowboys on the road. I mean, where do you expect
Speaker 1: this line to be. Let's assume Stafford plays at this point,
Speaker 1: I mean, where would you expect the line to be
Speaker 1: with the Lions at home against the Cowboys.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think with Stafford in there, it'll probably be
Speaker 3: Cowboys like minus three somewhere around there. But you know,
Speaker 3: once Driscoll gets announced, I wouldn't be surprised if it
Speaker 3: shoots up closer to six. Yeah, and maybe, but yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean the thing is, if Stafford does come back,
Speaker 3: he's gonna still be kind of banged up, and you
Speaker 3: gotta you gotta be concerned that he finishes the game.
Speaker 3: So either way, I I have a feeling a that
Speaker 3: Driscoll's going to be starter later in the week and
Speaker 3: be that the line will probably close closer to six.
Speaker 1: If I had a guess, Yeah, I think that's probably right.
Speaker 1: I was thinking roughly a field goal. I could see
Speaker 1: it maybe coming in under. The one thing to monitor,
Speaker 1: by the way, with the Cowboys is that Zach Martin
Speaker 1: sustained an injury yesterday I think was his elbow. I
Speaker 1: don't know if his availability is going to be impacted here,
Speaker 1: but any injury on that offensive line for the Cowboys
Speaker 1: kind of right, it drastically affects how they performed. You
Speaker 1: saw it when Tarren Smith was out and Lil Collin,
Speaker 1: so you know you gotta be careful there. But in
Speaker 1: the meantime, it's obviously not a game that you can
Speaker 1: really go full bore into. But I agree with that.
Speaker 1: I would expect roughly a field goal laying and another
Speaker 1: three points if Driscoll's named the starter. All right, let's
Speaker 1: move on here to the Jaguars that the Colts. Colts
Speaker 1: are laying three with the over under at forty four.
Speaker 1: We talked about it earlier. The Colt's coming off an
Speaker 1: absolutely disastrous loss against the Dolphins. With Brian Hoyer under center,
Speaker 1: he throws three picks. It's unclear if Jacoby Brissett is
Speaker 1: going to be back for this one. He was trending
Speaker 1: in the right direction with that mcl sprain, and then
Speaker 1: he was ruled out on Saturday night, not sort of,
Speaker 1: you know, a game time decision, but then it came
Speaker 1: out on Saturday. Now there's sort of rumors that he
Speaker 1: may not be ready for this one, which frankly I
Speaker 1: expected going. I mean, in mcl strain, no matter what
Speaker 1: it is, it's not something that you can just bounce
Speaker 1: right back from it, something where it needs to take
Speaker 1: a little time. But anyway, he is up in the air. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Jaguars coming off of bye here they're turning back
Speaker 1: to Nick Foles. There's all this uncertainty at QB. But
Speaker 1: how do you feel about a Colt saying three at
Speaker 1: home over under a forty four?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: This is interesting because I think last week, and you know,
Speaker 3: we talked about it on my podcast that the that
Speaker 3: Brian Hoyer laying ten and a half was the craziest
Speaker 3: line I've seen in a long time. I mean, Brian
Speaker 3: Hoyer is a huge step down from Jacoby Brissett. And
Speaker 3: it's it's interesting because I think at least the public's
Speaker 3: perception or the way they're handicapping these games, they haven't
Speaker 3: really handicapped Jacoby Brissett as the legit starter that the
Speaker 3: guy is. They kind of are still handicapping him. It
Speaker 3: seems as like a backup quarterback. And there's definitely been
Speaker 3: value on the Colts early in the season, and even
Speaker 3: here it doesn't seem again, if Jacoby Brissett isn't playing,
Speaker 3: I think minus three is kind of a weird number.
Speaker 3: I do think it'll probably close at minus three. I
Speaker 3: don't see this moving one way or the other. Because
Speaker 3: you have Nick Foles coming off that injury, and so
Speaker 3: I think they're kind of defaulting on like, hey, division game,
Speaker 3: give them the three points. But yeah, I mean Brian
Speaker 3: Hoyer as a favorite is that's an interesting bet for sure.
Speaker 1: So do you feel comfortable with the Colts laying three
Speaker 1: if it is per set?
Speaker 2: Uh? No, I wouldn't.
Speaker 3: I mean, just because I'm kind of worried about I mean,
Speaker 3: oh sorry, if it's Jacoby Brissett, yeah, yeah, if it's
Speaker 3: pre set, yeah, I mean I haven't broken down the
Speaker 3: game completely, but minus three to me makes sense if.
Speaker 2: Jacoby Brissett is the startup. But if he's not, I
Speaker 2: don't think they're adjusting enough for Brian Hoyer.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, right now, from what I'm looking at,
Speaker 1: You've got so much money coming in on the Jaguars
Speaker 1: at this point, despite the fact that a majority of
Speaker 1: bets are on the Cults. So my guess is that
Speaker 1: people in the No Problem think that Brissett is not
Speaker 1: going to suit up. That would actually be what I
Speaker 1: think as well. So you know, for me, if I'm
Speaker 1: looking at this number and I want to get into
Speaker 1: this game, I do it now, because again, if Brissett
Speaker 1: comes in, that bet looks a lot worse for sure.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to our next game, the Broncos
Speaker 1: at the Vikings. The Vikings here are laying nine and
Speaker 1: the over unders pretty low at thirty eight and a half.
Speaker 1: Vikings coming off that huge win against the Cowboys, despite
Speaker 1: being down Adam Thielen, they'll now you know, they come home,
Speaker 1: they take on the Broncos before they get their buy
Speaker 1: the Broncos meanwhile, or with Brandon Allen last week with
Speaker 1: Joe Flack and I are they get the win against
Speaker 1: the Browns doing very little on offense. Now you know
Speaker 1: you've got the bye coming up. Of course, as I said,
Speaker 1: with the Vikings, so you know it should be an
Speaker 1: easy matchup. You could see this being a letdown game
Speaker 1: right where they're just kind of looking past them. But
Speaker 1: we did say the same thing essentially about the Ravens
Speaker 1: kind of coming in not with the bye coming up
Speaker 1: right off that giant win against the Pats, maybe looking
Speaker 1: past the Bengals. But how do you feel here Vikings
Speaker 1: laying nine over on at thirty eight and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it kind of makes sense that they
Speaker 3: price it here because everyone saw the Vikings take care
Speaker 3: of the Cowboys on prime time, so that always gives
Speaker 3: you a little bit of added juice. The Broncos coming
Speaker 3: off the bye that's kind of interesting. Their defense seemingly
Speaker 3: has kind of come together.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you nailed it.
Speaker 3: Their offense didn't do much, but it did feel like
Speaker 3: Alan came in gave them.
Speaker 2: A little bit of a spark.
Speaker 3: We see that a lot of times, like first time
Speaker 3: Starter comes in and kind of exceeds expectations a little bit,
Speaker 3: then they get some film on them and they kind
Speaker 3: of shut them down. I think they're not factoring in
Speaker 3: the bye week enough for the Broncos because they did
Speaker 3: have They're going to have two weeks here to prepare
Speaker 3: for the Vikings, so I think that will help them.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if this gets bet down a
Speaker 3: little bit closer to seven, but it's certainly not gonna
Speaker 3: I think at seven it would get pounded on the Viking,
Speaker 3: so I think it'll definitely stay at two scores.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, look, it's been trending down sort of,
Speaker 1: so that's a good call. I mean, I think the
Speaker 1: look aheadline might have been ten and a half when
Speaker 1: it first done, and even earlier today when I took
Speaker 1: a look at the consensus lines. It was nine and
Speaker 1: a half, so it's clearly being bet down. I agree,
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to get all the way
Speaker 1: down there to like a field goal or anything like that.
Speaker 1: It's a tough spot. I don't This is not a
Speaker 1: game that I like, right, It's not a game where
Speaker 1: you look at it and you're like, well, you know,
Speaker 1: the Vikings they're clearly the superior team. But again you've
Speaker 1: got the variables, which is a very easy look ahead
Speaker 1: spot for the Vikings. A team coming off a bye,
Speaker 1: they get an extra week to prepare, not only defensively,
Speaker 1: and their defense remain strong because they wound up keeping
Speaker 1: you know, Chris Harris and they wound up keeping vond
Speaker 1: Miller and everything like that. So they're in a good
Speaker 1: spot here. But again, it's really tough because you know,
Speaker 1: you don't really want to trust a Brandon Allen lead
Speaker 1: offense going in on the road, right, So it's a
Speaker 1: game where you know, I don't really feel comfortable with
Speaker 1: it yet, But I agree, it's something where you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not surprised that it got bet down from a
Speaker 1: probable high of what I'm seeing of the Look headline
Speaker 1: of ten and a half on here to the Texans
Speaker 1: at the Ravens Ravens lank four and a half. The
Speaker 1: over under at fifty and a half. Now, this is
Speaker 1: up the over under at least from the Look headline
Speaker 1: which was forty nine. So it's up a point and
Speaker 1: a half there. The Ravens, as we discussed, absolutely demolished
Speaker 1: the Bengals every facet of the game, and that was
Speaker 1: coming off the mantrous win against the Patriots again where
Speaker 1: I kind of felt like this would be a look headline.
Speaker 1: Actually liked the Bengals getting ten. That was a poor decision. Yeah. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Texans, you like, they're coming off the by after
Speaker 1: the winning London against the Jaguars. They've been banged up
Speaker 1: on the offensive line. They've also been banged up on
Speaker 1: defense in their secondary, but they're probably going to get
Speaker 1: a bit healthier here. Wolf Fuller is already practicing, so
Speaker 1: he may come back. So this is a pretty interesting
Speaker 1: game coming in. How do you feel about the Ravens
Speaker 1: lank four and a half with the over under now
Speaker 1: moving up at fifty and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this kind of seems like, yeah, probably
Speaker 3: the right price here, you got an AFC matchup, you
Speaker 3: got the like you said, Texans coming off the by
Speaker 3: neutral field to say the Ravens are a point and
Speaker 3: a half better that that kind of makes sense to me.
Speaker 3: Certainly everyone's gonna want a piece of the Ravens, but
Speaker 3: so you have to give the Texans a little bit
Speaker 3: more than the field goal to appetize betters there. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean, this just seems like a great game. I
Speaker 3: guess I'd be surprised if you get any crazy movement
Speaker 3: one way or the other. Like, it feels like this
Speaker 3: is probably where the the.
Speaker 2: Price is going to close.
Speaker 3: It's definitely not going to get up to a touchdown
Speaker 3: and maybe it gets down to four three and a half,
Speaker 3: but nothing, It's definitely not going to get down to
Speaker 3: a field goal.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be it's going to close between four
Speaker 1: and five. I mean, it's going to be one of
Speaker 1: the dead numbers where you know you're not going to
Speaker 1: really feel all that comfortable with whatever it's going to be.
Speaker 1: But in the end, yeah, this is a tough game.
Speaker 1: It's a really tough game. I mean the Ravens, you know,
Speaker 1: you want to feel like maybe they're not quite as
Speaker 1: good as they've shown lately. But I think they really are.
Speaker 1: Their defense in particular is really starting to gel as
Speaker 1: they've gotten healthier at cornerback. They're just playing incredibly well.
Speaker 1: And you know, if the Texans, you got to watch
Speaker 1: the Texans offensive line right now, because if they are
Speaker 1: still banged up, that's gonna make it a tough day
Speaker 1: for Deshaun Watson.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean really normally, the rule for me
Speaker 3: is what the Texans has just been. If they had
Speaker 3: the team they're playing has a pass rush and is
Speaker 3: going to get pressure on Deshaun Watson, then fade them,
Speaker 3: you know, but it's gonna be interesting. I'll probably wait
Speaker 3: to like make my pick to see, Like you said,
Speaker 3: the offensive line health that could be big and the
Speaker 3: Ravens defense seemed a little bit fraudulent early, but again
Speaker 3: they've kind of figured it out lately.
Speaker 2: For sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they've geled. I mean I keep waiting for that
Speaker 1: letdown game from the Ravens. Like you know, you saw
Speaker 1: that game against the Browns earlier in the year where
Speaker 1: you just were like, oh, the Ravens are going to
Speaker 1: demolish them and then they just kind of laid an egg.
Speaker 1: I keep waiting for that game, but I kind of
Speaker 1: now feel like I'm gonna be waiting for a while
Speaker 1: to get there because they are playing incredibly well. So
Speaker 1: this is a game where I agree if you do
Speaker 1: want to bet it, it's probably something where you need
Speaker 1: to wait as long as possible because the health of
Speaker 1: the Texans in particular is going to really determine I
Speaker 1: think how I feel about this game. Before we move on,
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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the Jets at the Redskins.
Speaker 1: Right now, the Redskins are laying to this opened at
Speaker 1: a pick them from what I saw, and the over
Speaker 1: under is at thirty seven and a half. But legitimately,
Speaker 1: right as we were recording, we found out that Dwayne
Speaker 1: Haskins was named the starting quarterback for not only this
Speaker 1: game but the rest of the season the Redskins, which
Speaker 1: certainly colors how I feel about it. But the Jets,
Speaker 1: they come off the big win against the Giants in
Speaker 1: the Battle of New Jersey. It's not an overly impressive win.
Speaker 1: They're shredded by Daniel Jones. The offense is inconsistent and again,
Speaker 1: just coming across the wire. They've lost Chris Herndon for
Speaker 1: at least, you know, several games, if not the remainder
Speaker 1: of the season. I know he hasn't played very much,
Speaker 1: but he had started coming back this past week. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Redskins, they're coming off the by. They'll get Darius
Speaker 1: Guys back, but it's still, you know, kind of unclear
Speaker 1: how this offense is going to be able to perform
Speaker 1: with Dwayne Haskins starting at quarterbacks. So how do you
Speaker 1: feel here right now? Redskins laying two over under a
Speaker 1: thirty seven and a half at home to the Jets.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just if you've watched Dwayne Haskins at all,
Speaker 3: I don't think you can make him a favorite in
Speaker 3: any sort of NFL game. So I pick him actually
Speaker 3: sounds closer to what it should be in my mind,
Speaker 3: and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets back down
Speaker 3: two pick. I'm surprised that at pick yeah, that Washington
Speaker 3: was getting enough action to move it. I think maybe
Speaker 3: the Haskins news will move it back down to pick
Speaker 3: or closer to that. I think if you're if you're
Speaker 3: forcing yourself to bet and watch this game, I think
Speaker 3: you would talk. It's easier to build a case, I
Speaker 3: think probably for the Jets because they've had some semblance
Speaker 3: of a team. But yeah, both these teams have had serious,
Speaker 3: serious issues.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the Redskins really, they're not a terrible team.
Speaker 1: They have a decent defensive line, the secondary is not
Speaker 1: the worst in the world. They have some playmakers on offense.
Speaker 1: I mean, Adrian Peterson has been running well shockingly. Terry
Speaker 1: McLaurin is certainly a talent. But if you've got Haskins
Speaker 1: that he's just not ready to be an NFL could
Speaker 1: be I don't argue with the starting him for the
Speaker 1: rest of the year. I think this is a good
Speaker 1: time now to do it, especially against a team like
Speaker 1: the Jets. But in the end, I cannot, in any
Speaker 1: circumstance back a Redskins team with Dwayne Askins at quarterback.
Speaker 1: I don't feel great about the Jets, but I would
Speaker 1: certainly I take them. I think if you know at
Speaker 1: the line anything where they're getting points, certainly or pick
Speaker 1: them or anything like that. I think I'd have to
Speaker 1: take them here, because again, the Jets, as bad as
Speaker 1: they are, they're not quite as bad as they looked either.
Speaker 1: I mean, the offensive line is terrible, but you know
Speaker 1: they have at least some talent both on offense and
Speaker 1: on defense. Jamal Adams, you know, played one best games
Speaker 1: I've ever seen, and you know this past week, So
Speaker 1: they have enough talent there that they can do some damage.
Speaker 1: So you know, for me, with Haskins going, if it
Speaker 1: was case Keenum, I probably would favor the Redskins in
Speaker 1: this game because I really do think the downgrade is
Speaker 1: that significant. I think Haskins, honestly, it's just not ready.
Speaker 1: So for me, not that you know, when you're below
Speaker 1: the key numbers here doesn't matter all that much. But
Speaker 1: I would still get in soon if you do like
Speaker 1: the Jets like I do, before the line moves even
Speaker 1: further towards the Jets.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this could be like a seventeen sixteen game and
Speaker 3: you're kicking yourself for not getting those three two points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again it's not a huge deal, you know,
Speaker 1: once you're at this point, but certainly at any point,
Speaker 1: like look, you'd rather be getting the two than you know,
Speaker 1: a pick them game. Of course, Falcons here at the Panthers.
Speaker 1: Right now, the Panthers are favored by five and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: This was at six and a half when I checked
Speaker 1: earlier today, so the line has moved towards the Falcons.
Speaker 1: The over under ad fifty one. Falcons pull off the
Speaker 1: shocking upset of the Saints in New Orleans. As we
Speaker 1: talked about, their defense suddenly comes to life. They basically
Speaker 1: doubled their season long sack total in Justice one game,
Speaker 1: which is crazy considering that it's Drew Brees and the Saints.
Speaker 1: They do suffer a few injuries on offense here and
Speaker 1: we don't know the results of the MRIs that both
Speaker 1: players are going for. That's DeVonta Freeman who sustains a
Speaker 1: foot or an ankle injury in Austin Hooper with his knees,
Speaker 1: so that's something you're going to want to monitor. And
Speaker 1: the Falcons are already banged up running back with Edo
Speaker 1: Smith being placed on ir. Meanwhile, the Panthers, they played
Speaker 1: the Packers tough. They gave him a good game, They
Speaker 1: came close to tying it in the end, but they
Speaker 1: ultimately lose in the snowy game in Green Bay. James Bradbury,
Speaker 1: who has played very well at corner, did miss this
Speaker 1: pass game against Devonte Adams so he's got a groin injury.
Speaker 1: I don't know about his status coming up, So that
Speaker 1: would certainly chings a little bit with Julio Jones on
Speaker 1: tap if you can play. The Panthers have a very
Speaker 1: strong pass defense otherwise, So how do you feel here?
Speaker 1: You know, the Falcons kind of change the narrative on
Speaker 1: their season just a tiny bit. Panthers Langford five and
Speaker 1: a half at home in the over under at fifty one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, they may as well dump the gatorade
Speaker 3: on Dan Quinn after that game because that was that
Speaker 3: was their super Bowl, right And we see this with
Speaker 3: bad teams all the time. You got to find those
Speaker 3: couple of games per year where they're really going to
Speaker 3: show up.
Speaker 2: And it's gonna be you know, it's gonna be their
Speaker 2: super Bowl.
Speaker 3: And with the Falcons, in hindsight, it really makes sense
Speaker 3: that that was their super Bowl. They're coming off of
Speaker 3: by in a dome against the division rival, and it
Speaker 3: made sense that they really got up for this game.
Speaker 2: This game against the Panthers.
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a lot tougher for them
Speaker 3: matchup wise, and again going outdoors in Carolina, the field's
Speaker 3: gonna play a little slower, and Carolina is a quality team,
Speaker 3: you know, I thought they would have. I mean, look
Speaker 3: at they came so close to pulling it out in
Speaker 3: Green Bay didn't, but they were certainly in that game
Speaker 3: the entire time. And Christian McCaffrey, I think it's gonna
Speaker 3: be a matchup nightmare for this Falcons team.
Speaker 2: I think people are talking themselves into the.
Speaker 3: Fact that, like, hey, the Falcons won, They're not as
Speaker 3: bad as we thought, and that's why it's getting met
Speaker 3: down from six and a half to five and a half.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if it closes closer to four
Speaker 3: and a half, maybe even four. It's certainly not gonna
Speaker 3: dip below four, and I'd be surprised. I'd be really
Speaker 3: surprised if it goes the other way and starts going
Speaker 3: up towards seven. So yeah, I think if you like
Speaker 3: the Falcons, I would probably get in now. But if
Speaker 3: you like the Panthers, I think you can probably wait
Speaker 3: a little bit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, for me, I like the Bnthers. I mean I
Speaker 1: liked them at six and a half. Frankly, I mean
Speaker 1: I think this is a spot where, yeah, I mean
Speaker 1: it's gonna be I mean the Falcon. Look, kudos to them.
Speaker 1: I'm not kidding Dan Quinn. Legitimately, every week for the
Speaker 1: past four weeks it's been like, all right, this is
Speaker 1: the week, Quinn goes, this is it, this is it.
Speaker 1: And then they come out and they do that against
Speaker 1: the Saints, you know, who were by the way coming
Speaker 1: off by you know, so it was really kind of
Speaker 1: unexpected there to do that. So for them to do that,
Speaker 1: that's great. But you know, they don't have two weeks
Speaker 1: to prepare for the Panthers. The Panthers are probably going
Speaker 1: to be angry and ready to go McCaffrey. You know,
Speaker 1: the books have been written about the falcons inability to
Speaker 1: cover pass catching running backs over the past several seasons,
Speaker 1: so you know, McCaffrey is certainly a nightmare for them.
Speaker 1: I just think that this is going to be a
Speaker 1: get right spot for the Panthers. So either way, you know, look,
Speaker 1: if you if you like the pan I mean, I
Speaker 1: agree in the end it's not getting up to a
Speaker 1: touchdown or anything like that if it does go the
Speaker 1: other way. But I agree that this, you know, is
Speaker 1: a public perception type of game where people are going
Speaker 1: to be like, oh yeah, the Falcons. Right, Yeah, look
Speaker 1: at that, so I think you're probably safe to wait
Speaker 1: it out if like me, you like the Panthers. In
Speaker 1: this one, Bill's at the Dolphins. Bill's currently minus six
Speaker 1: and the over under at thirty nine. Dolphins come off
Speaker 1: the big win against the Calts. As we mentioned, they
Speaker 1: got a little juice now here two games in a row,
Speaker 1: playing better fits magic and full effect. Meanwhile, the Bills
Speaker 1: take the tough loss against the Browns. They have trouble
Speaker 1: getting the offense going. Josh Allen continues to be inaccurate.
Speaker 1: They for some reason kind of abandoned their run game earlier.
Speaker 1: You know, Devin Singletary, I believe only got eight carries
Speaker 1: on the game. So a little bit of a strange game.
Speaker 1: But the Bills have a chance to bounce back here
Speaker 1: in Miami laying six over under thirty nine. What are
Speaker 1: your thoughts?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess my thoughts are I'm surprised this is
Speaker 2: at six.
Speaker 3: I guess I'm The Dolphins have quietly been just they
Speaker 3: dominate against the spread team. They've covered five weeks in
Speaker 3: a row after starting out zero to four, and they've
Speaker 3: just been continuing to get big numbers.
Speaker 2: And I guess I'm a little surprised.
Speaker 3: That the bookmakers or the public in general. I mean,
Speaker 3: the public's kind of been backing them too as a dog.
Speaker 3: I'm surprised this is at six. I think it'll get
Speaker 3: bet down a little bit maybe, But yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 3: This is a tough game for me to wrap my
Speaker 3: head around as far as like, why you're making Josh
Speaker 3: Allen a six point road favorite.
Speaker 2: I get it, the Bills are still a.
Speaker 3: Better team, but six points in Miami, I don't know.
Speaker 3: Miami has kind of quietly been a tough place to play.
Speaker 3: I feel like they do well against these division opponents
Speaker 3: late in the season. Yeah, we'll see, but it feels
Speaker 3: a little high to me.
Speaker 1: No, you know, that's interesting because to me this felt
Speaker 1: about right. I mean, I get it completely. You know,
Speaker 1: the Dolphins have certainly been playing well on both sides
Speaker 1: of the ball the last several weeks. I mean, they
Speaker 1: jumped out to that big lead in Pittsburgh on Monday
Speaker 1: Night football. You know, that's before beating the Jets and
Speaker 1: then winning this past week against the Colts the Bills.
Speaker 1: You know, in the end, the first time these two
Speaker 1: teams played, it was pretty close for the most part,
Speaker 1: and then the Bills kind of ran away at the
Speaker 1: end of the game, so I could see something like
Speaker 1: that happening. But you know, in the end, this is
Speaker 1: around where I kind of expected it to be, as
Speaker 1: you get these spreads, which are you know, closer to
Speaker 1: normal now with the Dolphins rather than the crazy things
Speaker 1: that we were seeing there. If you're under a touchdown,
Speaker 1: I think I'm fine with it because I think you
Speaker 1: know the Bills, you know their defense, you know, as
Speaker 1: much as the Dolphins have been able to move the
Speaker 1: ball a little bit, I mean they're completely they have
Speaker 1: no running game whatsoever. I mean, you saw Kaylin Blage yesterday,
Speaker 1: you know, averaging you know, getting twenty carries and averaging
Speaker 1: two yards per carry is basically what you could expect
Speaker 1: from them, you know. And again they lost Preston Williams
Speaker 1: as well, so it's basically Devontae Parker and mikea SICKI
Speaker 1: they just they don't have as many weapons. I feel
Speaker 1: like a couple of weeks ago it might have been
Speaker 1: a little different, even with you know, Kenyan Drake or
Speaker 1: even Mark Walton there and Preston Williams again was playing
Speaker 1: very well, so I think given sort of the lack
Speaker 1: of weapons that they had, the Bills coming off a loss,
Speaker 1: where you know, with the Bills in their playoff push,
Speaker 1: they need to win this game. I'm really six struck
Speaker 1: me as about right. So I'm interested that you felt
Speaker 1: like it was a little bit high. So if you
Speaker 1: were making it, what would you think more like four
Speaker 1: four and a half something like that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm not not like crazy.
Speaker 3: I guess I'm just I you know, I have these
Speaker 3: moments where it's just like Ryan Fitz fitsmagic, Like how
Speaker 3: can you bet against this guy?
Speaker 2: So in my head that's probably my own kind of
Speaker 2: personal bias. But you're you're right.
Speaker 3: I mean they're much better coach team. Kind of a
Speaker 3: little disappointing performance in Cleveland. They you know, they should
Speaker 3: hit that field goal. You definitely let some points on
Speaker 3: the board. So yeah, I mean they are the better team.
Speaker 3: But yeah, six six felt a little high. But you're right,
Speaker 3: this Dolphins team under if it's under a touchdown is
Speaker 3: I don't know, it's tougher to back when it was
Speaker 3: a lot easier to call these previous weeks when they
Speaker 3: were getting giant spreads.
Speaker 1: Hey, you don't have to abandon your conviction. Man, I mean,
Speaker 1: that's a totally that's a totally no.
Speaker 2: No.
Speaker 3: I mean I guess I'm going back and forth in
Speaker 3: my head. I'm like, eh, but yeah, I do think
Speaker 3: it's a little high. I would say I would have
Speaker 3: if I was setting the spread, I would have said
Speaker 3: it like four and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. And again, you know, when
Speaker 1: you're within you know, when you're above three and below seven,
Speaker 1: it's really not that huge a deal necessarily, regardless of
Speaker 1: which way it moves. But look, in the end, it's
Speaker 1: it's roughly fifty to fifty right here with the money
Speaker 1: and the number of bets that are being placed. So this,
Speaker 1: you know, seems like right around the right number here
Speaker 1: coming in. So it's gonna be interesting to see how
Speaker 1: the line moves there. Let's move on to the Saints
Speaker 1: at the Bucks. Saints here are laying five and a
Speaker 1: half with the over under at fifty one and a half.
Speaker 1: Mentioned earlier, the Saints came out real flat off their
Speaker 1: by their offensive line played terribly, They could not run
Speaker 1: the ball, the defense wasn't great, and now it sounds
Speaker 1: like Marshaun Latimore is probably gonna miss at least a
Speaker 1: few games with what I believe is a thigh injury. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Bucks eke out a win against the Cardinals. You
Speaker 1: basically you know exactly what the Bucks are gonna do
Speaker 1: essentially in a game. It's just a matter of if
Speaker 1: Winston's turnovers are gonna be deep in his own territory
Speaker 1: and get like six points for the defense, or whether
Speaker 1: or not they're gonna be enough to not kill the
Speaker 1: game for the Bucks. They're gonna put up a ton
Speaker 1: of points, they're gonna stop the run, they're gonna allow
Speaker 1: passing yards up the wazoo, and Winston's gonna have at
Speaker 1: least one killer turnover if not too so. Look, these
Speaker 1: two teams know each other well. Thoughts at that number
Speaker 1: five and a half over under a fifty one and
Speaker 1: a half in Tampa.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, uh yeah, that makes sense.
Speaker 3: Maybe goes down a little bit, but yeah, I mean
Speaker 3: you nailed the key matchups. Normally I wouldn't factor in
Speaker 3: a cornerback into the spread, but I think this matchup,
Speaker 3: in particular Latimore not being there is.
Speaker 2: Huge for the Bucks. I mean, you nailed it. The
Speaker 2: way they score points is through the air.
Speaker 3: To Mike Evans and you know, to Godwin and the
Speaker 3: way the other teams score points is also through the
Speaker 3: air when Tampa Bay throws it and they get interceptions
Speaker 3: a great field position, So a guy like Latimore not
Speaker 3: being on the field, I think, to me actually is
Speaker 3: worth something factoring in the spread, or at least when
Speaker 3: you're thinking about betting this game. The Bucks are an
Speaker 3: interesting team because they played a lot away from Raymond
Speaker 3: James Stadium, so you know, they've had eight games but
Speaker 3: not a ton of ben at home, so it's tough
Speaker 3: to kind of get a handle on how this team
Speaker 3: is at home.
Speaker 2: And then the Saints. Yeah, it's one.
Speaker 3: Thing to have kind of a letdown game coming out
Speaker 3: of the by lost their division opponent, but there was
Speaker 3: some stuff that was pretty troubling, just Drew Brees's accuracy.
Speaker 2: I mean, he looked very good in that game before
Speaker 2: the bye.
Speaker 3: But I don't know if they hand has bothered him
Speaker 3: the thumb, but he looked pretty inaccurate. And you know,
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is a much different place to play than
Speaker 3: inside at the Dome, so we'll be interesting.
Speaker 2: For sure here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think part of it was just that Breeze
Speaker 1: was under so much pressure, which you know he isn't often. Again,
Speaker 1: I think they sacked him six times in the game,
Speaker 1: which was pretty shocking. Again, given how little pressure Falcons
Speaker 1: right from the Falcons, it doesn't usually happen for them,
Speaker 1: so you know, it could have been that. But yeah, look,
Speaker 1: he didn't look great. I don't know if Kamara looked,
Speaker 1: you know that great. Again. They had trouble running the ball,
Speaker 1: which I'm sure they're going to have trouble this week
Speaker 1: too because the Bucks. That's one thing that the Bucks do.
Speaker 1: But for me, I don't know, man, I could see
Speaker 1: this just I could see Peyton being pissed and Breeze
Speaker 1: being pissed and there being a lot of offense coming out,
Speaker 1: you know, in the passing game here and again vice versa.
Speaker 1: You know, the Saints they have a great run defense.
Speaker 1: The pass defense is okay, but you take Latimore out
Speaker 1: of that game there other cornerbacks are not good. It
Speaker 1: is not something. And especially you've got two elite wide
Speaker 1: receiver with Evans and Godwin, and good to see oj
Speaker 1: Howard finally get back involved now that he was back healthy.
Speaker 1: You know, he's got a missing person's report out him
Speaker 1: all year, so you know, this is a game where
Speaker 1: you know, I know the over under is high at
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half. It kind of feels like
Speaker 1: to me, and I said the same thing this, you know,
Speaker 1: past weekend where I felt like, man, it's going to
Speaker 1: be tough to find an over under that I'm not
Speaker 1: going to like the over even though I usually like unders.
Speaker 1: On the Cardinals Bucks game, and again it hit because
Speaker 1: it's just what's going to happen. The Bucks are like
Speaker 1: just a dream for overs because they have the perfect
Speaker 1: sort of set up there, so perfect formula.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can score at ease and also help the
Speaker 2: other team score.
Speaker 1: So right, and even if you're like, well, you know,
Speaker 1: you don't know whether or not it's going to get there,
Speaker 1: Winston will give you a pick six, He'll throw one
Speaker 1: in for you just to just to make sure you
Speaker 1: get there. Let's move on here to the Cardinals at
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. Forty nine ers are laying thirteen
Speaker 1: and a half points with the over under at forty
Speaker 1: five and a half. Cardinals coming off that tough loss
Speaker 1: we just talked about against the Bucks, and Patrick Peterson
Speaker 1: heard his case. Half in this game, I'm not sure
Speaker 1: if I'll need to miss it or how serious it is.
Speaker 1: I haven't seen anything yet. Today. The running game struggles
Speaker 1: predictably against the Bucks. But you know, in particular, David
Speaker 1: Johnson looks terrible. He barely touches the ball. He can't
Speaker 1: get anything going Kenyan Drake largely, it's the way here. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: we have not yet seen the forty nine ers play
Speaker 1: this week. They played tonight against the Seahawks, but sounds
Speaker 1: like George Kuittle may miss the game. He's doubtful coming in.
Speaker 1: But they are getting much healthier back on the offensive line,
Speaker 1: and I think Kyle Yuschek is probably going to return here.
Speaker 1: That makes a big difference for them, especially in the
Speaker 1: running game. So they were ten point favorites in Arizona
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago on that Thursday night, thirteen
Speaker 1: and a half here with the over under at forty
Speaker 1: five and a half. How do you feel?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean again, that seems that that line totally
Speaker 3: makes sense. I think they just took that, you know,
Speaker 3: ten points and then kind of threw in three there
Speaker 3: for a home field.
Speaker 2: But it is interesting.
Speaker 3: Again, I think if you like the Cardinals, bet is
Speaker 3: at thirteen and a half because it's not gonna it's
Speaker 3: not gonna go over two scores, and there's a I
Speaker 3: think there's a chance that if Seattle beats San Francisco
Speaker 3: or upsets them, this gets knocked down maybe closer to
Speaker 3: ten and a half. I would be shocked if anything
Speaker 3: happens to in tonight's game that would warrant them moving
Speaker 3: the Cardinals over fourteen points.
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's no question. If they come out tonight
Speaker 1: and they just blast the Seahawks right and they written
Speaker 1: by like twenty points, do you think you think it
Speaker 1: still wouldn't get over two touchdowns.
Speaker 3: I think they would move it to fourteen because I
Speaker 3: don't know, man this. I think it would take a
Speaker 3: lot to get over fourteen and a half because it's
Speaker 3: a division game and we've seen Kyler Murray in garbage
Speaker 3: time be able to move the ball up and down
Speaker 3: the field, and we're you know, it's in the back
Speaker 3: of Better's minds the Thursday Night game only a few
Speaker 3: weeks ago, where they covered the back door pretty easily
Speaker 3: there late, So I think it would be I'd be
Speaker 3: shocked if they made it over fourteen at any point.
Speaker 3: I think this is probably more inclined to go down
Speaker 3: if they lose, if they if they win by like
Speaker 3: thirty five points, you're right, maybe they do have to
Speaker 3: have to move it. I guess this is also based
Speaker 3: on the fact that I kind of I think Seattle
Speaker 3: hangs around in this Monday night game, so I think
Speaker 3: it'll probably end up closing at thirteen and a half.
Speaker 3: But I could see if Seattle wins out right, I
Speaker 3: could see getting closer to ten and a half, eleven
Speaker 3: something like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I kind of like the Cardinals here. I
Speaker 1: don't love them, but thirteen and a half, that's just
Speaker 1: so huge. And I mean you kind of pointed out
Speaker 1: with Murray there. I mean, they were pretty dominated in
Speaker 1: that game on Thursday night, and then just at the end,
Speaker 1: you know that you had the really long touchdown to
Speaker 1: Isabelle I believe, and this all of a sudden, it
Speaker 1: was a really tight game going into the end, even
Speaker 1: though it looked like the forty nine ers were just gonna,
Speaker 1: you know, blow the roof off. So it is one
Speaker 1: of these games where you get a point spread that high,
Speaker 1: teams that know each other, you could easily see the
Speaker 1: back door cover.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, if Cliff Kingsbury doesn't ice his
Speaker 3: defense before halftime, Right, what happens in this game?
Speaker 2: It could have been even closer.
Speaker 1: So I actually, you know, not to get off on
Speaker 1: the tangent, but I actually I took a lot out
Speaker 1: of that, the fact that they came out in the
Speaker 1: second half and played well, because you do that, and
Speaker 1: that's just like you just feel like you're just the
Speaker 1: whole team. Spur would be broken, right you get a
Speaker 1: big fourth? Yeah, yeah, they rallied. So it did showed
Speaker 1: me a little something both about the team and Kingsbury. Frankly,
Speaker 1: the fact that they were able to make the comeback
Speaker 1: despite that awful, awful timeout that he called right at
Speaker 1: the end of the half. Before we finish up with
Speaker 1: our last few games, I want tomind everyone about our
Speaker 1: November giveaway. It is a signed Odell Beckham junior Cleveland
Speaker 1: Brown's helmet. It is running through November thirtieth, so you
Speaker 1: can go to bettingpros dot com slash contest for more details.
Speaker 1: But to enter, just leave a review for the show
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of
Speaker 1: that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. Now an
Speaker 1: entry into any contest get to automatically entered into all
Speaker 1: future contests. So even if you're mad at Odell Beckham
Speaker 1: for his lack of stats this year, you probably want
Speaker 1: to be entered for our next giveaway anyway. Now, the
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Speaker 1: I s t I n E Auction dot com. All right,
Speaker 1: let's move on here to the Patriots at the Eagles.
Speaker 1: Patriots currently laying three with the over under at forty
Speaker 1: four and a half. That's dropped, by the way, a
Speaker 1: little bit from the look ahead which was forty six
Speaker 1: and now it's forty four and a half and the
Speaker 1: line was three and a half. It's dropped down to three.
Speaker 1: Patriots coming off their first loss of the season against
Speaker 1: the Ravens last week, now they've got to buy to
Speaker 1: lick their wounds. Meanwhile, the Eeles, also off of by
Speaker 1: and their win against the Bears. Things still just don't
Speaker 1: look quite right for the team, especially on offense. It's
Speaker 1: inconsistent without the Sean Jackson stretching the field he use
Speaker 1: now on ir Alshon Jeffery is still a little banged
Speaker 1: up now, I believe with his ankle, but they're getting
Speaker 1: a little healthier in their secondary. So what do you
Speaker 1: think here about the Pats laying three and the over
Speaker 1: under at forty four and a half.
Speaker 3: Uh, yeah, I'm surprised it's three. I thought it would
Speaker 3: be closer to four or four and a half. I mean,
Speaker 3: we certainly saw what happened the last time the Eagles
Speaker 3: were an underdog and both teams had a week to
Speaker 3: prepare Super Bowl fifty two. So this is a is
Speaker 3: a very different team. You nailed it, Like, the offense
Speaker 3: has really struggled to find its identity in the passing game.
Speaker 2: I think they're running game.
Speaker 3: They've really kind of figured that out, and Miles Sanders
Speaker 3: and Jordan Howard are kind of coming along in their
Speaker 3: big wins. They've done it with running the ball and
Speaker 3: being very physical like the did in Green Bay. The
Speaker 3: passing game just hasn't gotten into a great flow. I mean,
Speaker 3: zero production really out of the receivers. Al Sean and
Speaker 3: Nelson Aguilard. Maccollins is just I don't know, he's just.
Speaker 2: Getting his fitbit steps in out there. I don't know
Speaker 2: what he's doing.
Speaker 1: I think he's like setting the record for most snaps
Speaker 1: with combined with least production on the season.
Speaker 2: I think it's insane, like not even targets.
Speaker 3: It's one thing of like, okay, the guy's got a
Speaker 3: case of the drops. They don't even look at them.
Speaker 3: I don't know why they're running three y receiver sets.
Speaker 3: If you're not going to pass to them, just replace
Speaker 3: Goddard or you know. I mean, so just like bring
Speaker 3: Goddard in as the third receiver and just split him out.
Speaker 3: It makes no sense that matt Collins has seen the field.
Speaker 3: Now they bring in Jordan Matthews, who, again not amazing
Speaker 3: by any means, but at least someone that you know
Speaker 3: that Wentz will probably end up throwing the ball to.
Speaker 2: On the other side, the Pats.
Speaker 3: I mean, historically you love to take the Pats coming
Speaker 3: off a loss or coming off a bye A certainly
Speaker 3: big game for them. I think they'll be fired up
Speaker 3: for this game as the Eagles are as well. Their
Speaker 3: kind of playoff lives are on the line these next
Speaker 3: few games, So yeah, I thought it would be a
Speaker 3: little bit higher. I thought it would be closer to four.
Speaker 3: So I'm a little surprised that three. If you like
Speaker 3: the Pats, I don't see it getting below a field goal.
Speaker 3: So if you can get a minus three now at
Speaker 3: decent juice, I think bet it now.
Speaker 1: I completely agree with that. I was surprised to see
Speaker 1: the number where it's at. I love them lang three,
Speaker 1: I completely love them. I just don't feel like this
Speaker 1: is really something that the Eagle are going to be
Speaker 1: able to do. They're going to run the ball, which
Speaker 1: you know, you can run a little bit on the
Speaker 1: Patriots if that's if that's the spot to attack them.
Speaker 1: But it's not like they have this dominant rushing attack.
Speaker 1: I mean, Jordan Howard is good, Miles Sanders is good,
Speaker 1: but it's not like, you know, you don't have Ezekiel
Speaker 1: Elliott or Dalvin Cook or anything back there. And you
Speaker 1: know the Pats, you know, you give them an extra
Speaker 1: week to prepare for that secondary Who cares that they
Speaker 1: are not gonna be able to run the ball. That's
Speaker 1: what the Eagles do. They stop the run. Who cares?
Speaker 1: I mean the Pats can barely run the ball as
Speaker 1: is anyway, regardless of the matchup. You know, once they
Speaker 1: lost James Devlin, it was all downhill. So they're going
Speaker 1: to pass. They're going to figure out a way to
Speaker 1: beat it. So for me, yeah, I love the Pets.
Speaker 1: At three, I was surprised that the number wasn't higher,
Speaker 1: and certainly I don't see it getting any lower. So
Speaker 1: if you like the Pats, like both of us do,
Speaker 1: I'd get in on it now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I would say this.
Speaker 3: I think for the Eagles, their formula to victory I
Speaker 3: think comes through the defensive line in.
Speaker 2: That pass rush.
Speaker 3: It's slowly like Fletcher Cox came into the season banged up,
Speaker 3: and he slowly gotten healthier and healthier.
Speaker 2: And looked more productive and more productive.
Speaker 3: And you saw kind of even what they did to
Speaker 3: Chicago's offensive line. Now, granted, Chicago way worse on offense
Speaker 3: than the New England Patriots, but I think if they
Speaker 3: can get pressure to Brady, you've seen this year that
Speaker 3: he has had trouble dealing with it. So I think
Speaker 3: if they're gonna win this game, it's going to be
Speaker 3: through the defensive line.
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, that makes sense. And certainly, you know, hopefully
Speaker 1: Jim Schwartz can you know, hold off his just inclination
Speaker 1: to blitz every single play and just you know, try
Speaker 1: to get pressure with their line without all the blitzing,
Speaker 1: because you know, the one thing that Brady can do
Speaker 1: is he can beat the blitz. But if you can
Speaker 1: get pressure on him, as you know, has been the
Speaker 1: book on him four years, the thirty years that he's
Speaker 1: been you know, torching my jets in this league, it's said,
Speaker 1: if you can get pressure on him with just a
Speaker 1: four man rush, he gets a little, you know, a
Speaker 1: little shaky in the pocket. So we'll see if the
Speaker 1: Eagles can do that. Moving on to the Bengals. At
Speaker 1: the Raiders, Raiders here laying ten and a half points,
Speaker 1: the over unders have forty and a half. I mean,
Speaker 1: I still feel like, just to show you kind of
Speaker 1: like the natural kind of bias, I feel like that
Speaker 1: I still have in my head, I'm like, Raiders ten
Speaker 1: and a half favorites, Like why what is that? Without
Speaker 1: realizing that the Raiders are kind of slowly becoming a
Speaker 1: pretty good football team. I mean, their offensive line has
Speaker 1: been dominant. It opens up huge holes for Josh Jacobs
Speaker 1: it allows Derek Carr plenty of time to throw. They've
Speaker 1: got enough playmakers on offense. Tyre Williams not sure if
Speaker 1: he's one hundred percent still battling from that planter fasciatis,
Speaker 1: but Darren Waller is elite hunter Renfro starting to come on.
Speaker 1: Za Jones is a body who's out there and their
Speaker 1: defense kind of just holding their own a bit. You know,
Speaker 1: they're not getting embarrassed, at least unlike the Bengals who
Speaker 1: were completely embarrassed by the Ravens this past week. At
Speaker 1: least Joe Mixon gets a lot of work and he
Speaker 1: gets going there. But it's a little bit unfair to
Speaker 1: judge Ryan Finley off this game. I feel like it's
Speaker 1: a really tough, you know, to just be like, hey,
Speaker 1: here you go, come after a defense that knows us
Speaker 1: really well and that's probably gonna be ready to destroy us.
Speaker 1: So the defense, though, it continues just they can't tackle,
Speaker 1: they continue to be a sieve. So how do you
Speaker 1: feel here a big number, Raiders laying ten and a
Speaker 1: half within over under at forty eight and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I had the same preseason workup that
Speaker 3: you did on the Raiders I was just so out
Speaker 3: on Raiders and Grewdon and I thought it was really
Speaker 3: going to be a disaster, and they've seemingly kind of
Speaker 3: righted the ship. I finally adjusted, you know, kind of
Speaker 3: where I had them at and had them last week
Speaker 3: against the Chargers. Now they're coming off Thursday night rest,
Speaker 3: which I always like to factor that in a little bit,
Speaker 3: because you know that mini buy if you look at
Speaker 3: teams coming off Thursday night.
Speaker 2: I don't have it in front of me.
Speaker 3: But it's usually in that fifty five to sixty percent
Speaker 3: against the spread, so you want to get a little
Speaker 3: point or two there. I wouldn't be surprised that this
Speaker 3: line goes up a little bit because of how bad
Speaker 3: the Bengals looked in a game where they should have
Speaker 3: had a little bit of motivation. They were at home,
Speaker 3: huge dogs, and the Ravens just came in and cleaned
Speaker 3: their clock out. Historically, in the NFL, if your team,
Speaker 3: if you're a team who's underperforming the spread by more
Speaker 3: than twenty one points and then you're getting more points
Speaker 3: the next week, usually there's value on that team. I
Speaker 3: don't know if that's the case with this Bengals team.
Speaker 3: They're gonna go out west non division opponents. I could
Speaker 3: see some motivation issues for this Bengals team and the Raiders.
Speaker 3: They're kind of in the quietly in the AFC West, Yeah,
Speaker 3: you know, running, so don't look now, they're kind of
Speaker 3: in that mix.
Speaker 2: I think, you know, they got a couple of home games.
Speaker 3: Back to back here, so I think they're really in
Speaker 3: a in the driver's seat in a weird way.
Speaker 2: Definitely didn't see that coming.
Speaker 3: So I think the Bengals line could go up. If
Speaker 3: you like the Raiders, I don't know if you're gonna
Speaker 3: do better than ten and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm telling you that, when all of a sudden done
Speaker 1: in this game, I'm going to be wind up backing
Speaker 1: the Bengals, and I'm going to be really mad at myself,
Speaker 1: like I pretty much am every single time I backed Gongles. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I agree with you. It's hard to say. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: I could see some sharp money because I'm sure you know,
Speaker 1: the some models that people are gonna have are going
Speaker 1: to say this should probably be closer than it necessarily is,
Speaker 1: So I could see some money coming in. But I'm
Speaker 1: inclined to agree that. I don't see this getting back
Speaker 1: down to the key number of ten, and I could
Speaker 1: see it easily going up a point or two. So
Speaker 1: I'm basically going to try to resist the urge to
Speaker 1: take the Bengals as long as I possibly can, and
Speaker 1: hope I get more to like twelve or something like that,
Speaker 1: in which case I'll be like, well, there's too much value.
Speaker 1: I cannot do this.
Speaker 3: But well, yeah, and sorry real quick, Like a couple
Speaker 3: things that jump out of me right away here is
Speaker 3: look at how the Bengals struggled against the tight end.
Speaker 2: And just poor tackling. And if you have poor tackling
Speaker 2: against Josh Jacobs and Waller, I think that's right, you know,
Speaker 2: that's that's the bread and butter for the Raiders team.
Speaker 1: It's really the tackling man. It's so and I've talked
Speaker 1: about this a couple of times, but you know, because
Speaker 1: it hasn't always been terrible, Like it wasn't that terrible,
Speaker 1: like in their first game against the Seahawks, and then
Speaker 1: they came out in the second game against the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers, it was like, do you know how to tackle?
Speaker 1: Right now? What's happening? And it looked like that again
Speaker 1: against the Ravens. So yeah, I completely agree. I get it,
Speaker 1: but you know, look, the Raiders defense is certainly not
Speaker 1: you know, impenetrable by any means. You know, they're pretty
Speaker 1: good against the run, but mixing you know, whether it
Speaker 1: was the Ravens taking their foot off the gas, I mean,
Speaker 1: he certainly at least he got the workload and he's
Speaker 1: a talented back and he was able to you know,
Speaker 1: certainly put up a lot of stats in yesterday's game,
Speaker 1: so you know, and finley, he obviously didn't look good,
Speaker 1: but he was able to move the ball at bit.
Speaker 1: So you know, I do think they'll be able to
Speaker 1: put up points here, but it's certainly something where I
Speaker 1: probably don't want to. But in the end, as long
Speaker 1: as it stays above ten, I'm probably gonna wind up
Speaker 1: holding my nose and taking the Bengals. And then you
Speaker 1: and I are going to talk the next time you're
Speaker 1: on and say, can you believe I'm still looking to
Speaker 1: take the Bengals on a terrible bet. Let's move on
Speaker 1: here to the Bears. At the Rams. Rams are laying
Speaker 1: six and a half. The over under has come down
Speaker 1: from forty two to forty and a half. The Bears
Speaker 1: finally show a little life on offense. After a slow
Speaker 1: start against the lines, yesterday, they lighted up offensively a
Speaker 1: little bit with Mitchell Trubisky throwing for three touchdowns. Defense
Speaker 1: continues to be adequate, not spectacular, but certainly adequate. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Rams they're just an utter disaster offensively. I mean,
Speaker 1: Blake Bortle's played in the game against the Steelers. That
Speaker 1: really should tell you all you need to know about
Speaker 1: where they're at. They've had an injured and a poor
Speaker 1: offensive line all year long. It got worse yesterday with
Speaker 1: some more injuries. They just cannot protect jar Golf and
Speaker 1: that is a worrisome thing with Khalil Mack getting ready
Speaker 1: to play. The defense does continue to play well here.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, since they added Jalen Ramsey especially,
Speaker 1: they've they've been pretty solid. But things are just not
Speaker 1: there right now for the Rams. So it's a pretty
Speaker 1: big spread. I mean, they are at home. I believe
Speaker 1: this is the Sunday night game. So lank six and
Speaker 1: a half with the over under at forty and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I guess this feels a little high initially,
Speaker 3: and again it's it's we're in a weird spot with Trubisky.
Speaker 3: I mean, the guy throws three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Speaker 2: But if you have any Bears fan, there's no.
Speaker 3: Way they would be happy if you named Chase Daniel
Speaker 3: to the start for this game and you highlighted a
Speaker 3: great matchup and one I'll probably be looking to dive
Speaker 3: into more on my podcast, and that's the Rams offensive line.
Speaker 3: I was all over Pittsburgh last week because I thought,
Speaker 3: you know, TJ. Watt, he'd be able to get some
Speaker 3: pressure on Golf and Golf doesn't do well with pressure.
Speaker 2: And the offensive line has just really struggled to protect
Speaker 2: him and to give him time.
Speaker 3: I mean like he really needs a lot of time
Speaker 3: to make the throws and to have Sean McVay explain
Speaker 3: what the defense is he needs. He needs a lot
Speaker 3: of time on the offensive side of the ball, and
Speaker 3: the Bears should be able to get some pressure against
Speaker 3: the Rams.
Speaker 2: Chicago fans could show.
Speaker 3: Up there in Los Angeles. I think the I think
Speaker 3: the Bears fans will show up for a game. You know,
Speaker 3: if you're living in Chicago, you're looking for an excuse
Speaker 3: to go out to Los Angeles to watch this game.
Speaker 3: So I think this could get down a little not
Speaker 3: certainly down to a field goal, but I wouldn't be
Speaker 3: surprised if this gets down to four and a half.
Speaker 3: I don't see enough people backing the Rams to move
Speaker 3: this up to seven. If anything, I think it'll go
Speaker 3: down a little bit.
Speaker 1: No, I agree, I don't think it's going to get
Speaker 1: to seven. I just you know, this is a tough
Speaker 1: game because you know, you look at it and you
Speaker 1: really really see that the Rams are going to struggle
Speaker 1: to do anything offensively because Golf is just going to
Speaker 1: be running for his life. And again, I assume Randon
Speaker 1: Cooks is going to be out for this game. Josh
Speaker 1: Reynold's played okay yesterday, but I assume Cooks, who's still
Speaker 1: suffering from the concussions, if he plays it all this year.
Speaker 1: I really would be shocked if he plays this game.
Speaker 1: And you know, the Bears Trubisky, he was kind of
Speaker 1: like a batter in baseball that got really hot for
Speaker 1: like a really brief strift. Right It was like suddenly
Speaker 1: things looked okay, and he he kind of was like, Oh,
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, I'm comfortable this. I could just
Speaker 1: do this and this and this. But I don't think
Speaker 1: that you can expect that to last. As you mentioned,
Speaker 1: I'm sure Bears fans are surely looking for someone else
Speaker 1: to take over his quarterback at some point. To me, again,
Speaker 1: with forty two, I liked that over under at forty
Speaker 1: and a half. It's low, but I'm still kind of
Speaker 1: feeling the under on it because I do think the
Speaker 1: Scubia game where neither team is going to be able
Speaker 1: to score, so of either of these lines, you know,
Speaker 1: the spread it seems high to me. I agree, but
Speaker 1: I don't know if I have the intestinal forty two
Speaker 1: to take the Bears. But I do think I still
Speaker 1: like the under, even though it's dropping to forty and
Speaker 1: a half. I still think above forty, I still think
Speaker 1: I like it because I could see this, you know again,
Speaker 1: being a game that's just not particularly high scoring. Let's
Speaker 1: move on here to our final game, the Chiefs at
Speaker 1: the Charters on Monday Night football. The Chiefs here are
Speaker 1: laying three and a half. That's down from four and
Speaker 1: a half and the over unders at fifty three. Really
Speaker 1: tough loss for the Chiefs. Yesterday we talked about it.
Speaker 1: They had that game for the vast majority of it,
Speaker 1: but then the you know, the offense look pretty standard.
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes back under center, running game is still a
Speaker 1: little weird. You had Lashaw McCoy inact of a healthy scratch.
Speaker 1: Damian Williams was final, though he did fumble. The issue
Speaker 1: is really their defense. They can't stop anyone. They had
Speaker 1: success in recent weeks a bit more when they were
Speaker 1: blitzing all the time, but it's certainly not an elite
Speaker 1: unit and far from it. Meanwhile, the Charters come off
Speaker 1: the Thursday night loss to the Raiders probably the worst
Speaker 1: game I've ever seen Philip Rivers played. I said that
Speaker 1: on last night podcast. I mean, he was just brutal
Speaker 1: in that entire game, especially in the last two minutes.
Speaker 1: But you know, their offensive philosophy, they've kind of with
Speaker 1: the switch and coordinators, they've gotten back to what they
Speaker 1: do best, which is running the ball. And now that
Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon has kind of had his quote unquote you know, preseason,
Speaker 1: he kind of looks back to where he was. They
Speaker 1: continue to struggle defensively, though a bit better with Melvin
Speaker 1: Ingram out there, but they have had injuries all year
Speaker 1: that killed them. So how do you feel here the
Speaker 1: Chiefs on the road at the Chargers, Although again there
Speaker 1: really is no home field for the Chargers at all.
Speaker 1: They're laying three and a half with an over under
Speaker 1: really high of fifty three.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I yeah, this is gonna be all
Speaker 3: Chiefs fans for Monday Night because Chiefs Nation definitely travels,
Speaker 3: so that's always annoying to play, you know, to bet
Speaker 3: on a home dog and then it's not really it
Speaker 3: doesn't really feel like a home game. The Chargers have
Speaker 3: really struggled at home against the spread. You mentioned it
Speaker 3: worst game I've seen out of Philip Rivers.
Speaker 2: But I think Philip Rivers he's been struggling and.
Speaker 3: This could kind of be one of the last seasons
Speaker 3: for Philip Rivers. I mean that two thousand and four
Speaker 3: draft class does feel like it's kind of on its
Speaker 3: last legs. So I don't know how many great games
Speaker 3: he has in the tank. But I think if you're
Speaker 3: a Chargers backer, you're excited at the matchup because you
Speaker 3: have Melvin Gordon and Austin Eckler, and those those are
Speaker 3: two running backs that the Chiefs really I think will
Speaker 3: have trouble handling.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 3: I mean that was the Tennessee's game plan is like, hey,
Speaker 3: get Henry involved. And use that running game to set
Speaker 3: up the passing game. I think this could get down
Speaker 3: to three. I would be surprised if it goes below
Speaker 3: three because you still have Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 3: you know, Andy Reid with a little extra time to prepare. Granted,
Speaker 3: the Chargers also have that, but I think, you know,
Speaker 3: Andy Reid is a much better coach than Anthony Lynn,
Speaker 3: So interesting matchups to kind of look at. I think
Speaker 3: if the Chargers are looking to cover and win, you're
Speaker 3: going to do it through a running the ball. But yeah,
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if this gets down to three
Speaker 3: four and a half, which I saw some places opened
Speaker 3: and up ass that seemed too high to me, And
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be completely surprised if it goes under three. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I think if you like the Chiefs, I would wait.
Speaker 2: I don't see it going too much higher for the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Yeah. This strikes me as something where I think the
Speaker 1: public is probably going to like the Chiefs and the
Speaker 1: sharp beetterers are probably going to like the Chargers at
Speaker 1: anything above a field goal because you know it is
Speaker 1: a matchup here with it sets up pretty well for
Speaker 1: the Chargers. Again, they know what they're doing now, they're
Speaker 1: going to run the ball and again, you know, look,
Speaker 1: Rivers has not been good. The only excuse I will
Speaker 1: make for him just you know, whether or not he's
Speaker 1: you know, starting to near the end, which I mean eventually. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean he's in his late thirties. Of course, not
Speaker 1: everybody can be Brady, but their offensive line has been
Speaker 1: terrible and he's running for his life NonStop. But Keenan
Speaker 1: Allen did look healthier at least in this past game.
Speaker 1: Hunter Henry has really really been good since he's been back.
Speaker 1: They still have Mike Williams. So it is a game
Speaker 1: frankly that you know, other than the fact that Patrick
Speaker 1: Mahomes can you know, whip off like you know, just
Speaker 1: a short you know past to mcole Hardman who just
Speaker 1: outruns everybody, or Tyreek Hill can just outrun everybody, it
Speaker 1: is a game that I feel like kind of sets up,
Speaker 1: okay for the Chargers coming off the Mini BI with
Speaker 1: the Thursday night game, but it's not I don't really
Speaker 1: know whether or not I'm gonna be able to pull
Speaker 1: the trigger again. I do think that this is probably
Speaker 1: not I could see it maybe going to four, depending
Speaker 1: on how the money comes in, but more likely I
Speaker 1: agree that I think would be more like a field goal.
Speaker 1: So I don't think there's any rush to bet on
Speaker 1: this one. But at three and a half again, I
Speaker 1: think you're going to see more of the public backing
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and more of the sharp money probably back
Speaker 1: in the Chargers.
Speaker 2: Yeah that makes sense.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, I really appreciate you coming back on seoing.
Speaker 1: Remind everyone where they can find more of you and
Speaker 1: your work.
Speaker 2: Awesome.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll check us out over at sports Gambling podcast
Speaker 3: dot com.
Speaker 2: We do a weekly DFS.
Speaker 3: Weekly college and weekly NFL picks podcast. And yeah, give
Speaker 3: me a follow on Twitter at Shawn T. Green or
Speaker 3: follow the podcast at gambling Podcasts.
Speaker 1: All right, man, hopefully we can do it at least
Speaker 1: once more and you can be the first four time guest.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, oh yeah, you're making history. All right. All right,
Speaker 1: thanks again for coming on.
Speaker 2: Awesome.
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Speaker 1: We'll be back later this week giving some of our
Speaker 1: best bets for Week eleven. I'll talk to you then