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Speaker 1: Hey everyone, welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan

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Speaker 1: Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan

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Speaker 1: Harris Hadi. It is time for our early look at

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Speaker 1: next week's lines, and with me to break it all

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Speaker 1: down is Seawan Green, the co creator and co host

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Speaker 1: of the Sports Gamling podcast. You can find him on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Shawn T. Green. Shawn, thanks for coming back

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Speaker 1: on the show.

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Speaker 2: How you doing, I'm doing great, man. Yeah, just a

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Speaker 2: kind of crazy weekend. You know. He saw a lot

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Speaker 2: of big dogs win out right, and that always makes

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Speaker 2: things interesting. As far as the next week's.

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Speaker 1: Spreads, I have to imagine that the books had a monstrous,

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Speaker 1: monstrous weekend, right, I mean the Chiefs and nonetheless the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs right where everybody was probably you know, on the

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Speaker 1: money line I'm sure, and taking them in parlays and

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Speaker 1: stuff like that. I mean, they must have totally cleaned

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Speaker 1: up this weekend.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's a couple, there's probably like a

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Speaker 3: couple of sharp people who had the Dolph and Colts

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Speaker 3: or sorry, I mean the Dolphins and Falcons moneyline parlay together.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I think the.

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Speaker 3: Chiefs were probably in everyone's teaser a lot of moneyline

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Speaker 3: Parlay's probably got killed, and then you know you got

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Speaker 3: the I mean even the.

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Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys at home Sunday night.

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Speaker 3: I feel like that's a big public opportunity and Vikings

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Speaker 3: winning out right must have heard them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is how Vegas builds buildings. Man, this is

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Speaker 1: what it's all about. Well, let's see how this weekend,

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Speaker 1: this upcoming week looks so as usual. Now, Shawn has

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Speaker 1: been here twice already. I love it for the Monday show,

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Speaker 1: so I don't really need to explain this to him,

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Speaker 1: but I will explain it to you in cases is

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Speaker 1: your first time listening. We're going to go through each

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Speaker 1: game on the week eleven Slate going to be using

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Speaker 1: the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. Now, the

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Speaker 1: consensus odds are just the aggregation of odds that are

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Speaker 1: available in the market, so there are always differences in

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Speaker 1: the various sportsbooks. So if you're thinking about betting on

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Speaker 1: any particular game, and some of the games are going

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Speaker 1: to hear, I'm sure Shawn and I are going to

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Speaker 1: be like, yeah, get in on that number now, because

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Speaker 1: it's probably going to change. You want to look at

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Speaker 1: the various sportsbooks to make sure you're getting the best odds.

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Speaker 1: And if you want to see how any of the

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Speaker 1: top sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet

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Speaker 1: at any given time, bettingpros dot Com is going to

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Speaker 1: show you that too. All right, Tom, let's dive in

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Speaker 1: here with the Thursday night game. We've got the Steelers

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Speaker 1: at the Browns. The Browns here laying two and a half,

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Speaker 1: the over under at forty and a half, both teams

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Speaker 1: coming off real big wins. Here, the Steelers taking care

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Speaker 1: of business again at home. They sneak past the Rams,

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Speaker 1: largely on the strength of their defense. Meanwhile, the Browns

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Speaker 1: surprising three point favorites against the Bills and they win

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Speaker 1: by exactly that amount. There's really one impressive unit I

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Speaker 1: feel like among these two teams, and it's the Steelers defense.

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Speaker 1: Since they added Minka Fitzpatrick, they've been a different team.

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Speaker 1: Every other unit on both sides of the ball is

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Speaker 1: just kind of meh in my opinion. So how do

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Speaker 1: you feel about this one? Brown's laying just under a

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Speaker 1: field goal at home on Thursday night two and a

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Speaker 1: half and the over under at forty and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is interesting.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this is basically what the Bills Browns gave

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Speaker 3: opened up last week. It did get to three. I'm

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Speaker 3: kind of surprised it wasn't. I guess I thought it

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Speaker 3: would be closer to a pick if I was, if

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Speaker 3: I was grading this game, because yeah, you said, you

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Speaker 3: nailed it. The one impressive unit is the Steelers defense,

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Speaker 3: and it's really impressive. I mean they're creating turnovers, they're

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Speaker 3: scoring on defense. Mason Rudolph has really struggled. I think, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's gonna be an interesting game. But I'm

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Speaker 3: surprised the Steelers are getting points here. I thought this

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Speaker 3: would be closer to a pick them. But I guess

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Speaker 3: the public is still kind of enjoying backing the Browns.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, that's probably where the two and a half

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Speaker 2: comes in.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was a little surprised by it too, But

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Speaker 1: I feel like I'm usually surprised at the Browns lines,

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Speaker 1: like I feel like they always should be worse, especially

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Speaker 1: because I feel like the general perception is from the

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Speaker 1: public is that they they you know, they were all in.

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Speaker 1: I say this pretty much every week, but they were

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Speaker 1: all in on the Browns preseason and early on, and

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Speaker 1: you know, if you were a public better your heart

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Speaker 1: just has to be and then you just got to

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Speaker 1: be so off the Browns. So they make these lines.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I guess that make you want to pick

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Speaker 1: against the Browns, but I feel like the natural inclination

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Speaker 1: of the public would be to pick against the Browns

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Speaker 1: at this point, So I'm never sure why they're like this.

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Speaker 1: And again, you know the fact that the Steelers won. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm not all that surprised, necessarily as the

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Speaker 1: game unfolded, because again that the Rams offensive line they

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Speaker 1: sustained more injuries, so you saw the defense sort of

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Speaker 1: go after them. But I agree with you, I did

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Speaker 1: not expect to see this. It's not a huge deal

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Speaker 1: if it's under you know, the key number of three, necessarily,

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Speaker 1: but certainly I expected it to be closer to a

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Speaker 1: pick them. Early money is coming in on the Steelers,

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Speaker 1: as you might expect, both the number of bets and

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Speaker 1: the amount of money being wagered. So I expect that

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Speaker 1: will be a popular line, and I think it's probably

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Speaker 1: going to move towards the Steelers, although it probably won't

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Speaker 1: make that big a difference in terms of you know

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Speaker 1: what it actually means. So long as it stays below

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Speaker 1: the key number of three, let's move on. Oh go ahead, sorry, yeah.

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Speaker 2: Oh, I was just gonna say.

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Speaker 3: It must be everyone who you know has all the

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Speaker 3: browns of their fantasy team, like not giving up. I mean,

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Speaker 3: if you have Odell Beckham junior, you just have to

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Speaker 3: ride the season out and hope he hope he goes off.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, every week I get yelled at. You know

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Speaker 1: I rank for Fantasy pros. I'm a ranker, and you

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Speaker 1: know I'm in the top ten for the season in accuracy.

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Speaker 1: But every week I get people yelling at me about

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Speaker 1: where I'm ranking Odell Beckham and it's justifiable. I get it. Well,

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Speaker 1: hopefully this is the beginning of a turnaround, although of

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Speaker 1: course the Steelers defense is not exactly the easiest matchup.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to the next game, which I don't

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Speaker 1: think we can really talk about too much because there

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Speaker 1: are no lines as far as I'm seeing, neither on

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Speaker 1: our consensus anywhere or on any book that I've seen,

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Speaker 1: which is the Cowboys at the Lions. There's no line

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Speaker 1: available because we don't know who's going to be starting

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Speaker 1: at quarterback. Right now. You had Jeff Driscoll this past

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Speaker 1: weekend for the Lions at quarterback in relief of Matthew Stafford,

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Speaker 1: who's dealing with fractures in his back. And all I've

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Speaker 1: heard is it's the quote good type of fracture, which

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Speaker 1: I don't really think that anybody who's not suffering from

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Speaker 1: a fractured back should be able to say that. But again,

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Speaker 1: this is something where he's not ruled out this week,

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Speaker 1: and again he was only ruled out on Sunday this

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Speaker 1: past week. It wasn't like coming in, it was like,

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Speaker 1: oh man, it was all of a sudden. It leaked

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Speaker 1: on Saturday with an Ian Rappaport tweet that like, oh

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Speaker 1: there's serious concern about his availability, and then on Sunday

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Speaker 1: it was just like, all right, he's out. So look,

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Speaker 1: you know, I guess the the easiest way to analyze

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Speaker 1: this is maybe, you know, you think about the Cowboys here,

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Speaker 1: coming off a tough loss against the Vikings, as we

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Speaker 1: talked about, you've got to win this game for the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys on the road. I mean, where do you expect

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Speaker 1: this line to be. Let's assume Stafford plays at this point,

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Speaker 1: I mean, where would you expect the line to be

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Speaker 1: with the Lions at home against the Cowboys.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think with Stafford in there, it'll probably be

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Speaker 3: Cowboys like minus three somewhere around there. But you know,

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Speaker 3: once Driscoll gets announced, I wouldn't be surprised if it

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Speaker 3: shoots up closer to six. Yeah, and maybe, but yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean the thing is, if Stafford does come back,

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Speaker 3: he's gonna still be kind of banged up, and you

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Speaker 3: gotta you gotta be concerned that he finishes the game.

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Speaker 3: So either way, I I have a feeling a that

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Speaker 3: Driscoll's going to be starter later in the week and

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Speaker 3: be that the line will probably close closer to six.

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Speaker 1: If I had a guess, Yeah, I think that's probably right.

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Speaker 1: I was thinking roughly a field goal. I could see

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Speaker 1: it maybe coming in under. The one thing to monitor,

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Speaker 1: by the way, with the Cowboys is that Zach Martin

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Speaker 1: sustained an injury yesterday I think was his elbow. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if his availability is going to be impacted here,

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Speaker 1: but any injury on that offensive line for the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: kind of right, it drastically affects how they performed. You

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Speaker 1: saw it when Tarren Smith was out and Lil Collin,

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Speaker 1: so you know you gotta be careful there. But in

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Speaker 1: the meantime, it's obviously not a game that you can

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Speaker 1: really go full bore into. But I agree with that.

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Speaker 1: I would expect roughly a field goal laying and another

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Speaker 1: three points if Driscoll's named the starter. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: move on here to the Jaguars that the Colts. Colts

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Speaker 1: are laying three with the over under at forty four.

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Speaker 1: We talked about it earlier. The Colt's coming off an

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Speaker 1: absolutely disastrous loss against the Dolphins. With Brian Hoyer under center,

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Speaker 1: he throws three picks. It's unclear if Jacoby Brissett is

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Speaker 1: going to be back for this one. He was trending

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Speaker 1: in the right direction with that mcl sprain, and then

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Speaker 1: he was ruled out on Saturday night, not sort of,

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Speaker 1: you know, a game time decision, but then it came

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Speaker 1: out on Saturday. Now there's sort of rumors that he

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Speaker 1: may not be ready for this one, which frankly I

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Speaker 1: expected going. I mean, in mcl strain, no matter what

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Speaker 1: it is, it's not something that you can just bounce

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Speaker 1: right back from it, something where it needs to take

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Speaker 1: a little time. But anyway, he is up in the air. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars coming off of bye here they're turning back

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Speaker 1: to Nick Foles. There's all this uncertainty at QB. But

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Speaker 1: how do you feel about a Colt saying three at

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Speaker 1: home over under a forty four?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: This is interesting because I think last week, and you know,

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Speaker 3: we talked about it on my podcast that the that

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Speaker 3: Brian Hoyer laying ten and a half was the craziest

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Speaker 3: line I've seen in a long time. I mean, Brian

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Speaker 3: Hoyer is a huge step down from Jacoby Brissett. And

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Speaker 3: it's it's interesting because I think at least the public's

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Speaker 3: perception or the way they're handicapping these games, they haven't

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Speaker 3: really handicapped Jacoby Brissett as the legit starter that the

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Speaker 3: guy is. They kind of are still handicapping him. It

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Speaker 3: seems as like a backup quarterback. And there's definitely been

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Speaker 3: value on the Colts early in the season, and even

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Speaker 3: here it doesn't seem again, if Jacoby Brissett isn't playing,

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Speaker 3: I think minus three is kind of a weird number.

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Speaker 3: I do think it'll probably close at minus three. I

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Speaker 3: don't see this moving one way or the other. Because

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Speaker 3: you have Nick Foles coming off that injury, and so

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Speaker 3: I think they're kind of defaulting on like, hey, division game,

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Speaker 3: give them the three points. But yeah, I mean Brian

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Speaker 3: Hoyer as a favorite is that's an interesting bet for sure.

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Speaker 1: So do you feel comfortable with the Colts laying three

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Speaker 1: if it is per set?

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Speaker 2: Uh? No, I wouldn't.

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Speaker 3: I mean, just because I'm kind of worried about I mean,

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Speaker 3: oh sorry, if it's Jacoby Brissett, yeah, yeah, if it's

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Speaker 3: pre set, yeah, I mean I haven't broken down the

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Speaker 3: game completely, but minus three to me makes sense if.

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Speaker 2: Jacoby Brissett is the startup. But if he's not, I

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Speaker 2: don't think they're adjusting enough for Brian Hoyer.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, right now, from what I'm looking at,

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Speaker 1: You've got so much money coming in on the Jaguars

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Speaker 1: at this point, despite the fact that a majority of

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Speaker 1: bets are on the Cults. So my guess is that

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Speaker 1: people in the No Problem think that Brissett is not

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Speaker 1: going to suit up. That would actually be what I

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Speaker 1: think as well. So you know, for me, if I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at this number and I want to get into

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Speaker 1: this game, I do it now, because again, if Brissett

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Speaker 1: comes in, that bet looks a lot worse for sure.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on here to our next game, the Broncos

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Speaker 1: at the Vikings. The Vikings here are laying nine and

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Speaker 1: the over unders pretty low at thirty eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: Vikings coming off that huge win against the Cowboys, despite

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Speaker 1: being down Adam Thielen, they'll now you know, they come home,

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Speaker 1: they take on the Broncos before they get their buy

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Speaker 1: the Broncos meanwhile, or with Brandon Allen last week with

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Speaker 1: Joe Flack and I are they get the win against

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Speaker 1: the Browns doing very little on offense. Now you know

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Speaker 1: you've got the bye coming up. Of course, as I said,

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Speaker 1: with the Vikings, so you know it should be an

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Speaker 1: easy matchup. You could see this being a letdown game

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Speaker 1: right where they're just kind of looking past them. But

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Speaker 1: we did say the same thing essentially about the Ravens

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Speaker 1: kind of coming in not with the bye coming up

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Speaker 1: right off that giant win against the Pats, maybe looking

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Speaker 1: past the Bengals. But how do you feel here Vikings

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Speaker 1: laying nine over on at thirty eight and a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it kind of makes sense that they

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Speaker 3: price it here because everyone saw the Vikings take care

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Speaker 3: of the Cowboys on prime time, so that always gives

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Speaker 3: you a little bit of added juice. The Broncos coming

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Speaker 3: off the bye that's kind of interesting. Their defense seemingly

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Speaker 3: has kind of come together.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you nailed it.

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Speaker 3: Their offense didn't do much, but it did feel like

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Speaker 3: Alan came in gave them.

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Speaker 2: A little bit of a spark.

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Speaker 3: We see that a lot of times, like first time

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Speaker 3: Starter comes in and kind of exceeds expectations a little bit,

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Speaker 3: then they get some film on them and they kind

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Speaker 3: of shut them down. I think they're not factoring in

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Speaker 3: the bye week enough for the Broncos because they did

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Speaker 3: have They're going to have two weeks here to prepare

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Speaker 3: for the Vikings, so I think that will help them.

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if this gets bet down a

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Speaker 3: little bit closer to seven, but it's certainly not gonna

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Speaker 3: I think at seven it would get pounded on the Viking,

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Speaker 3: so I think it'll definitely stay at two scores.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, look, it's been trending down sort of,

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Speaker 1: so that's a good call. I mean, I think the

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Speaker 1: look aheadline might have been ten and a half when

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Speaker 1: it first done, and even earlier today when I took

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Speaker 1: a look at the consensus lines. It was nine and

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Speaker 1: a half, so it's clearly being bet down. I agree,

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to get all the way

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Speaker 1: down there to like a field goal or anything like that.

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Speaker 1: It's a tough spot. I don't This is not a

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Speaker 1: game that I like, right, It's not a game where

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Speaker 1: you look at it and you're like, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: the Vikings they're clearly the superior team. But again you've

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Speaker 1: got the variables, which is a very easy look ahead

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Speaker 1: spot for the Vikings. A team coming off a bye,

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Speaker 1: they get an extra week to prepare, not only defensively,

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Speaker 1: and their defense remain strong because they wound up keeping

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Speaker 1: you know, Chris Harris and they wound up keeping vond

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Speaker 1: Miller and everything like that. So they're in a good

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Speaker 1: spot here. But again, it's really tough because you know,

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Speaker 1: you don't really want to trust a Brandon Allen lead

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Speaker 1: offense going in on the road, right, So it's a

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Speaker 1: game where you know, I don't really feel comfortable with

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Speaker 1: it yet, But I agree, it's something where you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm not surprised that it got bet down from a

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Speaker 1: probable high of what I'm seeing of the Look headline

296
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Speaker 1: of ten and a half on here to the Texans

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Speaker 1: at the Ravens Ravens lank four and a half. The

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Speaker 1: over under at fifty and a half. Now, this is

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Speaker 1: up the over under at least from the Look headline

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Speaker 1: which was forty nine. So it's up a point and

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Speaker 1: a half there. The Ravens, as we discussed, absolutely demolished

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Speaker 1: the Bengals every facet of the game, and that was

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Speaker 1: coming off the mantrous win against the Patriots again where

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Speaker 1: I kind of felt like this would be a look headline.

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Speaker 1: Actually liked the Bengals getting ten. That was a poor decision. Yeah. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: the Texans, you like, they're coming off the by after

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Speaker 1: the winning London against the Jaguars. They've been banged up

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Speaker 1: on the offensive line. They've also been banged up on

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Speaker 1: defense in their secondary, but they're probably going to get

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Speaker 1: a bit healthier here. Wolf Fuller is already practicing, so

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Speaker 1: he may come back. So this is a pretty interesting

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Speaker 1: game coming in. How do you feel about the Ravens

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Speaker 1: lank four and a half with the over under now

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Speaker 1: moving up at fifty and a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this kind of seems like, yeah, probably

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Speaker 3: the right price here, you got an AFC matchup, you

317
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Speaker 3: got the like you said, Texans coming off the by

318
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Speaker 3: neutral field to say the Ravens are a point and

319
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Speaker 3: a half better that that kind of makes sense to me.

320
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Speaker 3: Certainly everyone's gonna want a piece of the Ravens, but

321
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Speaker 3: so you have to give the Texans a little bit

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Speaker 3: more than the field goal to appetize betters there. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean, this just seems like a great game. I

324
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Speaker 3: guess I'd be surprised if you get any crazy movement

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Speaker 3: one way or the other. Like, it feels like this

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Speaker 3: is probably where the the.

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Speaker 2: Price is going to close.

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Speaker 3: It's definitely not going to get up to a touchdown

329
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Speaker 3: and maybe it gets down to four three and a half,

330
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Speaker 3: but nothing, It's definitely not going to get down to

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Speaker 3: a field goal.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be it's going to close between four

333
00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:32,840
Speaker 1: and five. I mean, it's going to be one of

334
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Speaker 1: the dead numbers where you know you're not going to

335
00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,440
Speaker 1: really feel all that comfortable with whatever it's going to be.

336
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Speaker 1: But in the end, yeah, this is a tough game.

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Speaker 1: It's a really tough game. I mean the Ravens, you know,

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Speaker 1: you want to feel like maybe they're not quite as

339
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Speaker 1: good as they've shown lately. But I think they really are.

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Speaker 1: Their defense in particular is really starting to gel as

341
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Speaker 1: they've gotten healthier at cornerback. They're just playing incredibly well.

342
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Speaker 1: And you know, if the Texans, you got to watch

343
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Speaker 1: the Texans offensive line right now, because if they are

344
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Speaker 1: still banged up, that's gonna make it a tough day

345
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Speaker 1: for Deshaun Watson.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean really normally, the rule for me

347
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Speaker 3: is what the Texans has just been. If they had

348
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Speaker 3: the team they're playing has a pass rush and is

349
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Speaker 3: going to get pressure on Deshaun Watson, then fade them,

350
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Speaker 3: you know, but it's gonna be interesting. I'll probably wait

351
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Speaker 3: to like make my pick to see, Like you said,

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Speaker 3: the offensive line health that could be big and the

353
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Speaker 3: Ravens defense seemed a little bit fraudulent early, but again

354
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Speaker 3: they've kind of figured it out lately.

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Speaker 2: For sure.

356
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Speaker 1: Yeah, they've geled. I mean I keep waiting for that

357
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Speaker 1: letdown game from the Ravens. Like you know, you saw

358
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Speaker 1: that game against the Browns earlier in the year where

359
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Speaker 1: you just were like, oh, the Ravens are going to

360
00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:37,040
Speaker 1: demolish them and then they just kind of laid an egg.

361
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Speaker 1: I keep waiting for that game, but I kind of

362
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Speaker 1: now feel like I'm gonna be waiting for a while

363
00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:43,880
Speaker 1: to get there because they are playing incredibly well. So

364
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Speaker 1: this is a game where I agree if you do

365
00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,800
Speaker 1: want to bet it, it's probably something where you need

366
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Speaker 1: to wait as long as possible because the health of

367
00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,120
Speaker 1: the Texans in particular is going to really determine I

368
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Speaker 1: think how I feel about this game. Before we move on,

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the Jets at the Redskins.

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Speaker 1: Right now, the Redskins are laying to this opened at

412
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:50,120
Speaker 1: a pick them from what I saw, and the over

413
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,399
Speaker 1: under is at thirty seven and a half. But legitimately,

414
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Speaker 1: right as we were recording, we found out that Dwayne

415
00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:58,159
Speaker 1: Haskins was named the starting quarterback for not only this

416
00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,760
Speaker 1: game but the rest of the season the Redskins, which

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00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:03,439
Speaker 1: certainly colors how I feel about it. But the Jets,

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Speaker 1: they come off the big win against the Giants in

419
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,680
Speaker 1: the Battle of New Jersey. It's not an overly impressive win.

420
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:13,359
Speaker 1: They're shredded by Daniel Jones. The offense is inconsistent and again,

421
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,360
Speaker 1: just coming across the wire. They've lost Chris Herndon for

422
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:18,919
Speaker 1: at least, you know, several games, if not the remainder

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Speaker 1: of the season. I know he hasn't played very much,

424
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:24,000
Speaker 1: but he had started coming back this past week. Meanwhile,

425
00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 1: the Redskins, they're coming off the by. They'll get Darius

426
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,680
Speaker 1: Guys back, but it's still, you know, kind of unclear

427
00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 1: how this offense is going to be able to perform

428
00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 1: with Dwayne Haskins starting at quarterbacks. So how do you

429
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:36,720
Speaker 1: feel here right now? Redskins laying two over under a

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00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 1: thirty seven and a half at home to the Jets.

431
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just if you've watched Dwayne Haskins at all,

432
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,320
Speaker 3: I don't think you can make him a favorite in

433
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 3: any sort of NFL game. So I pick him actually

434
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,280
Speaker 3: sounds closer to what it should be in my mind,

435
00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:53,480
Speaker 3: and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets back down

436
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:59,600
Speaker 3: two pick. I'm surprised that at pick yeah, that Washington

437
00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:01,880
Speaker 3: was getting enough action to move it. I think maybe

438
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 3: the Haskins news will move it back down to pick

439
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,760
Speaker 3: or closer to that. I think if you're if you're

440
00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,879
Speaker 3: forcing yourself to bet and watch this game, I think

441
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:13,919
Speaker 3: you would talk. It's easier to build a case, I

442
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:17,960
Speaker 3: think probably for the Jets because they've had some semblance

443
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:21,000
Speaker 3: of a team. But yeah, both these teams have had serious,

444
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 3: serious issues.

445
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the Redskins really, they're not a terrible team.

446
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,639
Speaker 1: They have a decent defensive line, the secondary is not

447
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,160
Speaker 1: the worst in the world. They have some playmakers on offense.

448
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:36,200
Speaker 1: I mean, Adrian Peterson has been running well shockingly. Terry

449
00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:39,240
Speaker 1: McLaurin is certainly a talent. But if you've got Haskins

450
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 1: that he's just not ready to be an NFL could

451
00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 1: be I don't argue with the starting him for the

452
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:44,360
Speaker 1: rest of the year. I think this is a good

453
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 1: time now to do it, especially against a team like

454
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 1: the Jets. But in the end, I cannot, in any

455
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 1: circumstance back a Redskins team with Dwayne Askins at quarterback.

456
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 1: I don't feel great about the Jets, but I would

457
00:19:56,480 --> 00:20:00,199
Speaker 1: certainly I take them. I think if you know at

458
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 1: the line anything where they're getting points, certainly or pick

459
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 1: them or anything like that. I think I'd have to

460
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 1: take them here, because again, the Jets, as bad as

461
00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 1: they are, they're not quite as bad as they looked either.

462
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,199
Speaker 1: I mean, the offensive line is terrible, but you know

463
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:14,879
Speaker 1: they have at least some talent both on offense and

464
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,439
Speaker 1: on defense. Jamal Adams, you know, played one best games

465
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 1: I've ever seen, and you know this past week, So

466
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 1: they have enough talent there that they can do some damage.

467
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 1: So you know, for me, with Haskins going, if it

468
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 1: was case Keenum, I probably would favor the Redskins in

469
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:30,439
Speaker 1: this game because I really do think the downgrade is

470
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,639
Speaker 1: that significant. I think Haskins, honestly, it's just not ready.

471
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,120
Speaker 1: So for me, not that you know, when you're below

472
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,119
Speaker 1: the key numbers here doesn't matter all that much. But

473
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,199
Speaker 1: I would still get in soon if you do like

474
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 1: the Jets like I do, before the line moves even

475
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 1: further towards the Jets.

476
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, this could be like a seventeen sixteen game and

477
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 3: you're kicking yourself for not getting those three two points.

478
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again it's not a huge deal, you know,

479
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 1: once you're at this point, but certainly at any point,

480
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,439
Speaker 1: like look, you'd rather be getting the two than you know,

481
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 1: a pick them game. Of course, Falcons here at the Panthers.

482
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 1: Right now, the Panthers are favored by five and a half. Now,

483
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:05,160
Speaker 1: This was at six and a half when I checked

484
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 1: earlier today, so the line has moved towards the Falcons.

485
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,199
Speaker 1: The over under ad fifty one. Falcons pull off the

486
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,679
Speaker 1: shocking upset of the Saints in New Orleans. As we

487
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 1: talked about, their defense suddenly comes to life. They basically

488
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 1: doubled their season long sack total in Justice one game,

489
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 1: which is crazy considering that it's Drew Brees and the Saints.

490
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 1: They do suffer a few injuries on offense here and

491
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 1: we don't know the results of the MRIs that both

492
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 1: players are going for. That's DeVonta Freeman who sustains a

493
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 1: foot or an ankle injury in Austin Hooper with his knees,

494
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 1: so that's something you're going to want to monitor. And

495
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,679
Speaker 1: the Falcons are already banged up running back with Edo

496
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 1: Smith being placed on ir. Meanwhile, the Panthers, they played

497
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 1: the Packers tough. They gave him a good game, They

498
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:47,199
Speaker 1: came close to tying it in the end, but they

499
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 1: ultimately lose in the snowy game in Green Bay. James Bradbury,

500
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,199
Speaker 1: who has played very well at corner, did miss this

501
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:57,119
Speaker 1: pass game against Devonte Adams so he's got a groin injury.

502
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 1: I don't know about his status coming up, So that

503
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 1: would certainly chings a little bit with Julio Jones on

504
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:03,479
Speaker 1: tap if you can play. The Panthers have a very

505
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: strong pass defense otherwise, So how do you feel here?

506
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 1: You know, the Falcons kind of change the narrative on

507
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 1: their season just a tiny bit. Panthers Langford five and

508
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 1: a half at home in the over under at fifty one.

509
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, they may as well dump the gatorade

510
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 3: on Dan Quinn after that game because that was that

511
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 3: was their super Bowl, right And we see this with

512
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,880
Speaker 3: bad teams all the time. You got to find those

513
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 3: couple of games per year where they're really going to

514
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:27,400
Speaker 3: show up.

515
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 2: And it's gonna be you know, it's gonna be their

516
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 2: super Bowl.

517
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 3: And with the Falcons, in hindsight, it really makes sense

518
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 3: that that was their super Bowl. They're coming off of

519
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 3: by in a dome against the division rival, and it

520
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 3: made sense that they really got up for this game.

521
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 2: This game against the Panthers.

522
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a lot tougher for them

523
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 3: matchup wise, and again going outdoors in Carolina, the field's

524
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 3: gonna play a little slower, and Carolina is a quality team,

525
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 3: you know, I thought they would have. I mean, look

526
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 3: at they came so close to pulling it out in

527
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 3: Green Bay didn't, but they were certainly in that game

528
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 3: the entire time. And Christian McCaffrey, I think it's gonna

529
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 3: be a matchup nightmare for this Falcons team.

530
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 2: I think people are talking themselves into the.

531
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,199
Speaker 3: Fact that, like, hey, the Falcons won, They're not as

532
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 3: bad as we thought, and that's why it's getting met

533
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 3: down from six and a half to five and a half.

534
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if it closes closer to four

535
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 3: and a half, maybe even four. It's certainly not gonna

536
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 3: dip below four, and I'd be surprised. I'd be really

537
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 3: surprised if it goes the other way and starts going

538
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 3: up towards seven. So yeah, I think if you like

539
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 3: the Falcons, I would probably get in now. But if

540
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 3: you like the Panthers, I think you can probably wait

541
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 3: a little bit.

542
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, for me, I like the Bnthers. I mean I

543
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 1: liked them at six and a half. Frankly, I mean

544
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 1: I think this is a spot where, yeah, I mean

545
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 1: it's gonna be I mean the Falcon. Look, kudos to them.

546
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 1: I'm not kidding Dan Quinn. Legitimately, every week for the

547
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 1: past four weeks it's been like, all right, this is

548
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 1: the week, Quinn goes, this is it, this is it.

549
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,719
Speaker 1: And then they come out and they do that against

550
00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: the Saints, you know, who were by the way coming

551
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 1: off by you know, so it was really kind of

552
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 1: unexpected there to do that. So for them to do that,

553
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 1: that's great. But you know, they don't have two weeks

554
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 1: to prepare for the Panthers. The Panthers are probably going

555
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,199
Speaker 1: to be angry and ready to go McCaffrey. You know,

556
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 1: the books have been written about the falcons inability to

557
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 1: cover pass catching running backs over the past several seasons,

558
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 1: so you know, McCaffrey is certainly a nightmare for them.

559
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 1: I just think that this is going to be a

560
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: get right spot for the Panthers. So either way, you know, look,

561
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 1: if you if you like the pan I mean, I

562
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 1: agree in the end it's not getting up to a

563
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 1: touchdown or anything like that if it does go the

564
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 1: other way. But I agree that this, you know, is

565
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 1: a public perception type of game where people are going

566
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 1: to be like, oh yeah, the Falcons. Right, Yeah, look

567
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 1: at that, so I think you're probably safe to wait

568
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,199
Speaker 1: it out if like me, you like the Panthers. In

569
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 1: this one, Bill's at the Dolphins. Bill's currently minus six

570
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 1: and the over under at thirty nine. Dolphins come off

571
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 1: the big win against the Calts. As we mentioned, they

572
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 1: got a little juice now here two games in a row,

573
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: playing better fits magic and full effect. Meanwhile, the Bills

574
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 1: take the tough loss against the Browns. They have trouble

575
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 1: getting the offense going. Josh Allen continues to be inaccurate.

576
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 1: They for some reason kind of abandoned their run game earlier.

577
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: You know, Devin Singletary, I believe only got eight carries

578
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 1: on the game. So a little bit of a strange game.

579
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 1: But the Bills have a chance to bounce back here

580
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 1: in Miami laying six over under thirty nine. What are

581
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 1: your thoughts?

582
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess my thoughts are I'm surprised this is

583
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 2: at six.

584
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,200
Speaker 3: I guess I'm The Dolphins have quietly been just they

585
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 3: dominate against the spread team. They've covered five weeks in

586
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 3: a row after starting out zero to four, and they've

587
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 3: just been continuing to get big numbers.

588
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 2: And I guess I'm a little surprised.

589
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,959
Speaker 3: That the bookmakers or the public in general. I mean,

590
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 3: the public's kind of been backing them too as a dog.

591
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 3: I'm surprised this is at six. I think it'll get

592
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 3: bet down a little bit maybe, But yeah, I don't know.

593
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 3: This is a tough game for me to wrap my

594
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 3: head around as far as like, why you're making Josh

595
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 3: Allen a six point road favorite.

596
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 2: I get it, the Bills are still a.

597
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 3: Better team, but six points in Miami, I don't know.

598
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 3: Miami has kind of quietly been a tough place to play.

599
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 3: I feel like they do well against these division opponents

600
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 3: late in the season. Yeah, we'll see, but it feels

601
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 3: a little high to me.

602
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 1: No, you know, that's interesting because to me this felt

603
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 1: about right. I mean, I get it completely. You know,

604
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 1: the Dolphins have certainly been playing well on both sides

605
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 1: of the ball the last several weeks. I mean, they

606
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 1: jumped out to that big lead in Pittsburgh on Monday

607
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,679
Speaker 1: Night football. You know, that's before beating the Jets and

608
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 1: then winning this past week against the Colts the Bills.

609
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 1: You know, in the end, the first time these two

610
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 1: teams played, it was pretty close for the most part,

611
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 1: and then the Bills kind of ran away at the

612
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 1: end of the game, so I could see something like

613
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 1: that happening. But you know, in the end, this is

614
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 1: around where I kind of expected it to be, as

615
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 1: you get these spreads, which are you know, closer to

616
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: normal now with the Dolphins rather than the crazy things

617
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 1: that we were seeing there. If you're under a touchdown,

618
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,199
Speaker 1: I think I'm fine with it because I think you

619
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 1: know the Bills, you know their defense, you know, as

620
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 1: much as the Dolphins have been able to move the

621
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 1: ball a little bit, I mean they're completely they have

622
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 1: no running game whatsoever. I mean, you saw Kaylin Blage yesterday,

623
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 1: you know, averaging you know, getting twenty carries and averaging

624
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 1: two yards per carry is basically what you could expect

625
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: from them, you know. And again they lost Preston Williams

626
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 1: as well, so it's basically Devontae Parker and mikea SICKI

627
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: they just they don't have as many weapons. I feel

628
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:23,479
Speaker 1: like a couple of weeks ago it might have been

629
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 1: a little different, even with you know, Kenyan Drake or

630
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 1: even Mark Walton there and Preston Williams again was playing

631
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 1: very well, so I think given sort of the lack

632
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,439
Speaker 1: of weapons that they had, the Bills coming off a loss,

633
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 1: where you know, with the Bills in their playoff push,

634
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 1: they need to win this game. I'm really six struck

635
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: me as about right. So I'm interested that you felt

636
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 1: like it was a little bit high. So if you

637
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 1: were making it, what would you think more like four

638
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 1: four and a half something like that.

639
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm not not like crazy.

640
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 3: I guess I'm just I you know, I have these

641
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 3: moments where it's just like Ryan Fitz fitsmagic, Like how

642
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 3: can you bet against this guy?

643
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 2: So in my head that's probably my own kind of

644
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 2: personal bias. But you're you're right.

645
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 3: I mean they're much better coach team. Kind of a

646
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 3: little disappointing performance in Cleveland. They you know, they should

647
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 3: hit that field goal. You definitely let some points on

648
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 3: the board. So yeah, I mean they are the better team.

649
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 3: But yeah, six six felt a little high. But you're right,

650
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 3: this Dolphins team under if it's under a touchdown is

651
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 3: I don't know, it's tougher to back when it was

652
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 3: a lot easier to call these previous weeks when they

653
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 3: were getting giant spreads.

654
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: Hey, you don't have to abandon your conviction. Man, I mean,

655
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,120
Speaker 1: that's a totally that's a totally no.

656
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 2: No.

657
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 3: I mean I guess I'm going back and forth in

658
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 3: my head. I'm like, eh, but yeah, I do think

659
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 3: it's a little high. I would say I would have

660
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 3: if I was setting the spread, I would have said

661
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 3: it like four and a half.

662
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. And again, you know, when

663
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 1: you're within you know, when you're above three and below seven,

664
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 1: it's really not that huge a deal necessarily, regardless of

665
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 1: which way it moves. But look, in the end, it's

666
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 1: it's roughly fifty to fifty right here with the money

667
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 1: and the number of bets that are being placed. So this,

668
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 1: you know, seems like right around the right number here

669
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: coming in. So it's gonna be interesting to see how

670
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 1: the line moves there. Let's move on to the Saints

671
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 1: at the Bucks. Saints here are laying five and a

672
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: half with the over under at fifty one and a half.

673
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 1: Mentioned earlier, the Saints came out real flat off their

674
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 1: by their offensive line played terribly, They could not run

675
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: the ball, the defense wasn't great, and now it sounds

676
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 1: like Marshaun Latimore is probably gonna miss at least a

677
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 1: few games with what I believe is a thigh injury. Meanwhile,

678
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: the Bucks eke out a win against the Cardinals. You

679
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: basically you know exactly what the Bucks are gonna do

680
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: essentially in a game. It's just a matter of if

681
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: Winston's turnovers are gonna be deep in his own territory

682
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 1: and get like six points for the defense, or whether

683
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 1: or not they're gonna be enough to not kill the

684
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: game for the Bucks. They're gonna put up a ton

685
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 1: of points, they're gonna stop the run, they're gonna allow

686
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: passing yards up the wazoo, and Winston's gonna have at

687
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: least one killer turnover if not too so. Look, these

688
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: two teams know each other well. Thoughts at that number

689
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 1: five and a half over under a fifty one and

690
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 1: a half in Tampa.

691
00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, uh yeah, that makes sense.

692
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 3: Maybe goes down a little bit, but yeah, I mean

693
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 3: you nailed the key matchups. Normally I wouldn't factor in

694
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 3: a cornerback into the spread, but I think this matchup,

695
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 3: in particular Latimore not being there is.

696
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 2: Huge for the Bucks. I mean, you nailed it. The

697
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 2: way they score points is through the air.

698
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 3: To Mike Evans and you know, to Godwin and the

699
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 3: way the other teams score points is also through the

700
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,959
Speaker 3: air when Tampa Bay throws it and they get interceptions

701
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 3: a great field position, So a guy like Latimore not

702
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 3: being on the field, I think, to me actually is

703
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 3: worth something factoring in the spread, or at least when

704
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 3: you're thinking about betting this game. The Bucks are an

705
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 3: interesting team because they played a lot away from Raymond

706
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 3: James Stadium, so you know, they've had eight games but

707
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 3: not a ton of ben at home, so it's tough

708
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 3: to kind of get a handle on how this team

709
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 3: is at home.

710
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 2: And then the Saints. Yeah, it's one.

711
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 3: Thing to have kind of a letdown game coming out

712
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 3: of the by lost their division opponent, but there was

713
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 3: some stuff that was pretty troubling, just Drew Brees's accuracy.

714
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 2: I mean, he looked very good in that game before

715
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 2: the bye.

716
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 3: But I don't know if they hand has bothered him

717
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 3: the thumb, but he looked pretty inaccurate. And you know,

718
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is a much different place to play than

719
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 3: inside at the Dome, so we'll be interesting.

720
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 2: For sure here.

721
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think part of it was just that Breeze

722
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: was under so much pressure, which you know he isn't often. Again,

723
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: I think they sacked him six times in the game,

724
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 1: which was pretty shocking. Again, given how little pressure Falcons

725
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: right from the Falcons, it doesn't usually happen for them,

726
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 1: so you know, it could have been that. But yeah, look,

727
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 1: he didn't look great. I don't know if Kamara looked,

728
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 1: you know that great. Again. They had trouble running the ball,

729
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 1: which I'm sure they're going to have trouble this week

730
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 1: too because the Bucks. That's one thing that the Bucks do.

731
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: But for me, I don't know, man, I could see

732
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 1: this just I could see Peyton being pissed and Breeze

733
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 1: being pissed and there being a lot of offense coming out,

734
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 1: you know, in the passing game here and again vice versa.

735
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,959
Speaker 1: You know, the Saints they have a great run defense.

736
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 1: The pass defense is okay, but you take Latimore out

737
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 1: of that game there other cornerbacks are not good. It

738
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 1: is not something. And especially you've got two elite wide

739
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: receiver with Evans and Godwin, and good to see oj

740
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 1: Howard finally get back involved now that he was back healthy.

741
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 1: You know, he's got a missing person's report out him

742
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 1: all year, so you know, this is a game where

743
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: you know, I know the over under is high at

744
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half. It kind of feels like

745
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: to me, and I said the same thing this, you know,

746
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 1: past weekend where I felt like, man, it's going to

747
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 1: be tough to find an over under that I'm not

748
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 1: going to like the over even though I usually like unders.

749
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 1: On the Cardinals Bucks game, and again it hit because

750
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 1: it's just what's going to happen. The Bucks are like

751
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 1: just a dream for overs because they have the perfect

752
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 1: sort of set up there, so perfect formula.

753
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can score at ease and also help the

754
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 2: other team score.

755
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 1: So right, and even if you're like, well, you know,

756
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,239
Speaker 1: you don't know whether or not it's going to get there,

757
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 1: Winston will give you a pick six, He'll throw one

758
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 1: in for you just to just to make sure you

759
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 1: get there. Let's move on here to the Cardinals at

760
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. Forty nine ers are laying thirteen

761
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: and a half points with the over under at forty

762
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: five and a half. Cardinals coming off that tough loss

763
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 1: we just talked about against the Bucks, and Patrick Peterson

764
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 1: heard his case. Half in this game, I'm not sure

765
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: if I'll need to miss it or how serious it is.

766
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: I haven't seen anything yet. Today. The running game struggles

767
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 1: predictably against the Bucks. But you know, in particular, David

768
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 1: Johnson looks terrible. He barely touches the ball. He can't

769
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 1: get anything going Kenyan Drake largely, it's the way here. Meanwhile,

770
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 1: we have not yet seen the forty nine ers play

771
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 1: this week. They played tonight against the Seahawks, but sounds

772
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,959
Speaker 1: like George Kuittle may miss the game. He's doubtful coming in.

773
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 1: But they are getting much healthier back on the offensive line,

774
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: and I think Kyle Yuschek is probably going to return here.

775
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: That makes a big difference for them, especially in the

776
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 1: running game. So they were ten point favorites in Arizona

777
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago on that Thursday night, thirteen

778
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 1: and a half here with the over under at forty

779
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 1: five and a half. How do you feel?

780
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean again, that seems that that line totally

781
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,959
Speaker 3: makes sense. I think they just took that, you know,

782
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 3: ten points and then kind of threw in three there

783
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 3: for a home field.

784
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 2: But it is interesting.

785
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 3: Again, I think if you like the Cardinals, bet is

786
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 3: at thirteen and a half because it's not gonna it's

787
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 3: not gonna go over two scores, and there's a I

788
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 3: think there's a chance that if Seattle beats San Francisco

789
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 3: or upsets them, this gets knocked down maybe closer to

790
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 3: ten and a half. I would be shocked if anything

791
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 3: happens to in tonight's game that would warrant them moving

792
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 3: the Cardinals over fourteen points.

793
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's no question. If they come out tonight

794
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: and they just blast the Seahawks right and they written

795
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 1: by like twenty points, do you think you think it

796
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 1: still wouldn't get over two touchdowns.

797
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 3: I think they would move it to fourteen because I

798
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:29,880
Speaker 3: don't know, man this. I think it would take a

799
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 3: lot to get over fourteen and a half because it's

800
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,320
Speaker 3: a division game and we've seen Kyler Murray in garbage

801
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 3: time be able to move the ball up and down

802
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 3: the field, and we're you know, it's in the back

803
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 3: of Better's minds the Thursday Night game only a few

804
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 3: weeks ago, where they covered the back door pretty easily

805
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,319
Speaker 3: there late, So I think it would be I'd be

806
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 3: shocked if they made it over fourteen at any point.

807
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 3: I think this is probably more inclined to go down

808
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 3: if they lose, if they if they win by like

809
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 3: thirty five points, you're right, maybe they do have to

810
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 3: have to move it. I guess this is also based

811
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 3: on the fact that I kind of I think Seattle

812
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 3: hangs around in this Monday night game, so I think

813
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 3: it'll probably end up closing at thirteen and a half.

814
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 3: But I could see if Seattle wins out right, I

815
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 3: could see getting closer to ten and a half, eleven

816
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 3: something like that.

817
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I kind of like the Cardinals here. I

818
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 1: don't love them, but thirteen and a half, that's just

819
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 1: so huge. And I mean you kind of pointed out

820
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: with Murray there. I mean, they were pretty dominated in

821
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 1: that game on Thursday night, and then just at the end,

822
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 1: you know that you had the really long touchdown to

823
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 1: Isabelle I believe, and this all of a sudden, it

824
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: was a really tight game going into the end, even

825
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 1: though it looked like the forty nine ers were just gonna,

826
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 1: you know, blow the roof off. So it is one

827
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 1: of these games where you get a point spread that high,

828
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 1: teams that know each other, you could easily see the

829
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 1: back door cover.

830
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, if Cliff Kingsbury doesn't ice his

831
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 3: defense before halftime, Right, what happens in this game?

832
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 2: It could have been even closer.

833
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 1: So I actually, you know, not to get off on

834
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 1: the tangent, but I actually I took a lot out

835
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 1: of that, the fact that they came out in the

836
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: second half and played well, because you do that, and

837
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 1: that's just like you just feel like you're just the

838
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 1: whole team. Spur would be broken, right you get a

839
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 1: big fourth? Yeah, yeah, they rallied. So it did showed

840
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 1: me a little something both about the team and Kingsbury. Frankly,

841
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 1: the fact that they were able to make the comeback

842
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 1: despite that awful, awful timeout that he called right at

843
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 1: the end of the half. Before we finish up with

844
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 1: our last few games, I want tomind everyone about our

845
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,160
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846
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847
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848
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:37,960
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849
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:41,000
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Speaker 1: I s t I n E Auction dot com. All right,

861
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 1: let's move on here to the Patriots at the Eagles.

862
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 1: Patriots currently laying three with the over under at forty

863
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 1: four and a half. That's dropped, by the way, a

864
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,319
Speaker 1: little bit from the look ahead which was forty six

865
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 1: and now it's forty four and a half and the

866
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 1: line was three and a half. It's dropped down to three.

867
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 1: Patriots coming off their first loss of the season against

868
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 1: the Ravens last week, now they've got to buy to

869
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 1: lick their wounds. Meanwhile, the Eeles, also off of by

870
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 1: and their win against the Bears. Things still just don't

871
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 1: look quite right for the team, especially on offense. It's

872
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: inconsistent without the Sean Jackson stretching the field he use

873
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 1: now on ir Alshon Jeffery is still a little banged

874
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 1: up now, I believe with his ankle, but they're getting

875
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 1: a little healthier in their secondary. So what do you

876
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 1: think here about the Pats laying three and the over

877
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 1: under at forty four and a half.

878
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 3: Uh, yeah, I'm surprised it's three. I thought it would

879
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,279
Speaker 3: be closer to four or four and a half. I mean,

880
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 3: we certainly saw what happened the last time the Eagles

881
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 3: were an underdog and both teams had a week to

882
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 3: prepare Super Bowl fifty two. So this is a is

883
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 3: a very different team. You nailed it, Like, the offense

884
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:19,399
Speaker 3: has really struggled to find its identity in the passing game.

885
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 2: I think they're running game.

886
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 3: They've really kind of figured that out, and Miles Sanders

887
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 3: and Jordan Howard are kind of coming along in their

888
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 3: big wins. They've done it with running the ball and

889
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 3: being very physical like the did in Green Bay. The

890
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:35,879
Speaker 3: passing game just hasn't gotten into a great flow. I mean,

891
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 3: zero production really out of the receivers. Al Sean and

892
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 3: Nelson Aguilard. Maccollins is just I don't know, he's just.

893
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 2: Getting his fitbit steps in out there. I don't know

894
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 2: what he's doing.

895
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 1: I think he's like setting the record for most snaps

896
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 1: with combined with least production on the season.

897
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 2: I think it's insane, like not even targets.

898
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 3: It's one thing of like, okay, the guy's got a

899
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 3: case of the drops. They don't even look at them.

900
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 3: I don't know why they're running three y receiver sets.

901
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 3: If you're not going to pass to them, just replace

902
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 3: Goddard or you know. I mean, so just like bring

903
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 3: Goddard in as the third receiver and just split him out.

904
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 3: It makes no sense that matt Collins has seen the field.

905
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,720
Speaker 3: Now they bring in Jordan Matthews, who, again not amazing

906
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 3: by any means, but at least someone that you know

907
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 3: that Wentz will probably end up throwing the ball to.

908
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 2: On the other side, the Pats.

909
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 3: I mean, historically you love to take the Pats coming

910
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,840
Speaker 3: off a loss or coming off a bye A certainly

911
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 3: big game for them. I think they'll be fired up

912
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 3: for this game as the Eagles are as well. Their

913
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 3: kind of playoff lives are on the line these next

914
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 3: few games, So yeah, I thought it would be a

915
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 3: little bit higher. I thought it would be closer to four.

916
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 3: So I'm a little surprised that three. If you like

917
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 3: the Pats, I don't see it getting below a field goal.

918
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 3: So if you can get a minus three now at

919
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 3: decent juice, I think bet it now.

920
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 1: I completely agree with that. I was surprised to see

921
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: the number where it's at. I love them lang three,

922
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 1: I completely love them. I just don't feel like this

923
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 1: is really something that the Eagle are going to be

924
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 1: able to do. They're going to run the ball, which

925
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 1: you know, you can run a little bit on the

926
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 1: Patriots if that's if that's the spot to attack them.

927
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,720
Speaker 1: But it's not like they have this dominant rushing attack.

928
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 1: I mean, Jordan Howard is good, Miles Sanders is good,

929
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 1: but it's not like, you know, you don't have Ezekiel

930
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: Elliott or Dalvin Cook or anything back there. And you

931
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 1: know the Pats, you know, you give them an extra

932
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 1: week to prepare for that secondary Who cares that they

933
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 1: are not gonna be able to run the ball. That's

934
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 1: what the Eagles do. They stop the run. Who cares?

935
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 1: I mean the Pats can barely run the ball as

936
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 1: is anyway, regardless of the matchup. You know, once they

937
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 1: lost James Devlin, it was all downhill. So they're going

938
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 1: to pass. They're going to figure out a way to

939
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 1: beat it. So for me, yeah, I love the Pets.

940
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 1: At three, I was surprised that the number wasn't higher,

941
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,800
Speaker 1: and certainly I don't see it getting any lower. So

942
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 1: if you like the Pats, like both of us do,

943
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 1: I'd get in on it now.

944
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I would say this.

945
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:50,840
Speaker 3: I think for the Eagles, their formula to victory I

946
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 3: think comes through the defensive line in.

947
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:53,320
Speaker 2: That pass rush.

948
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 3: It's slowly like Fletcher Cox came into the season banged up,

949
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 3: and he slowly gotten healthier and healthier.

950
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 2: And looked more productive and more productive.

951
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 3: And you saw kind of even what they did to

952
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 3: Chicago's offensive line. Now, granted, Chicago way worse on offense

953
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 3: than the New England Patriots, but I think if they

954
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 3: can get pressure to Brady, you've seen this year that

955
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:15,399
Speaker 3: he has had trouble dealing with it. So I think

956
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 3: if they're gonna win this game, it's going to be

957
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:18,240
Speaker 3: through the defensive line.

958
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, that makes sense. And certainly, you know, hopefully

959
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 1: Jim Schwartz can you know, hold off his just inclination

960
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: to blitz every single play and just you know, try

961
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 1: to get pressure with their line without all the blitzing,

962
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: because you know, the one thing that Brady can do

963
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:32,880
Speaker 1: is he can beat the blitz. But if you can

964
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 1: get pressure on him, as you know, has been the

965
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:36,879
Speaker 1: book on him four years, the thirty years that he's

966
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,879
Speaker 1: been you know, torching my jets in this league, it's said,

967
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 1: if you can get pressure on him with just a

968
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 1: four man rush, he gets a little, you know, a

969
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,320
Speaker 1: little shaky in the pocket. So we'll see if the

970
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,319
Speaker 1: Eagles can do that. Moving on to the Bengals. At

971
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 1: the Raiders, Raiders here laying ten and a half points,

972
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 1: the over unders have forty and a half. I mean,

973
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 1: I still feel like, just to show you kind of

974
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 1: like the natural kind of bias, I feel like that

975
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,319
Speaker 1: I still have in my head, I'm like, Raiders ten

976
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 1: and a half favorites, Like why what is that? Without

977
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 1: realizing that the Raiders are kind of slowly becoming a

978
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,840
Speaker 1: pretty good football team. I mean, their offensive line has

979
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 1: been dominant. It opens up huge holes for Josh Jacobs

980
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 1: it allows Derek Carr plenty of time to throw. They've

981
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 1: got enough playmakers on offense. Tyre Williams not sure if

982
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 1: he's one hundred percent still battling from that planter fasciatis,

983
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 1: but Darren Waller is elite hunter Renfro starting to come on.

984
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:25,359
Speaker 1: Za Jones is a body who's out there and their

985
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 1: defense kind of just holding their own a bit. You know,

986
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 1: they're not getting embarrassed, at least unlike the Bengals who

987
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 1: were completely embarrassed by the Ravens this past week. At

988
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 1: least Joe Mixon gets a lot of work and he

989
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 1: gets going there. But it's a little bit unfair to

990
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,839
Speaker 1: judge Ryan Finley off this game. I feel like it's

991
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:42,839
Speaker 1: a really tough, you know, to just be like, hey,

992
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 1: here you go, come after a defense that knows us

993
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 1: really well and that's probably gonna be ready to destroy us.

994
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 1: So the defense, though, it continues just they can't tackle,

995
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 1: they continue to be a sieve. So how do you

996
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 1: feel here a big number, Raiders laying ten and a

997
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 1: half within over under at forty eight and a half.

998
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:01,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I had the same preseason workup that

999
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 3: you did on the Raiders I was just so out

1000
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 3: on Raiders and Grewdon and I thought it was really

1001
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,880
Speaker 3: going to be a disaster, and they've seemingly kind of

1002
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 3: righted the ship. I finally adjusted, you know, kind of

1003
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 3: where I had them at and had them last week

1004
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 3: against the Chargers. Now they're coming off Thursday night rest,

1005
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 3: which I always like to factor that in a little bit,

1006
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,879
Speaker 3: because you know that mini buy if you look at

1007
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:27,359
Speaker 3: teams coming off Thursday night.

1008
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 2: I don't have it in front of me.

1009
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:30,880
Speaker 3: But it's usually in that fifty five to sixty percent

1010
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 3: against the spread, so you want to get a little

1011
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 3: point or two there. I wouldn't be surprised that this

1012
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 3: line goes up a little bit because of how bad

1013
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 3: the Bengals looked in a game where they should have

1014
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 3: had a little bit of motivation. They were at home,

1015
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 3: huge dogs, and the Ravens just came in and cleaned

1016
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 3: their clock out. Historically, in the NFL, if your team,

1017
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:55,279
Speaker 3: if you're a team who's underperforming the spread by more

1018
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 3: than twenty one points and then you're getting more points

1019
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 3: the next week, usually there's value on that team. I

1020
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 3: don't know if that's the case with this Bengals team.

1021
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 3: They're gonna go out west non division opponents. I could

1022
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 3: see some motivation issues for this Bengals team and the Raiders.

1023
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 3: They're kind of in the quietly in the AFC West, Yeah,

1024
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:20,520
Speaker 3: you know, running, so don't look now, they're kind of

1025
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 3: in that mix.

1026
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:24,359
Speaker 2: I think, you know, they got a couple of home games.

1027
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 3: Back to back here, so I think they're really in

1028
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:29,359
Speaker 3: a in the driver's seat in a weird way.

1029
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 2: Definitely didn't see that coming.

1030
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 3: So I think the Bengals line could go up. If

1031
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 3: you like the Raiders, I don't know if you're gonna

1032
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:38,360
Speaker 3: do better than ten and a half.

1033
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 1: I'm telling you that, when all of a sudden done

1034
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 1: in this game, I'm going to be wind up backing

1035
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 1: the Bengals, and I'm going to be really mad at myself,

1036
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:51,799
Speaker 1: like I pretty much am every single time I backed Gongles. Yeah,

1037
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 1: I agree with you. It's hard to say. I mean, look,

1038
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 1: I could see some sharp money because I'm sure you know,

1039
00:44:57,560 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 1: the some models that people are gonna have are going

1040
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:03,000
Speaker 1: to say this should probably be closer than it necessarily is,

1041
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 1: So I could see some money coming in. But I'm

1042
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:08,359
Speaker 1: inclined to agree that. I don't see this getting back

1043
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 1: down to the key number of ten, and I could

1044
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 1: see it easily going up a point or two. So

1045
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 1: I'm basically going to try to resist the urge to

1046
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 1: take the Bengals as long as I possibly can, and

1047
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 1: hope I get more to like twelve or something like that,

1048
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,320
Speaker 1: in which case I'll be like, well, there's too much value.

1049
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 1: I cannot do this.

1050
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 3: But well, yeah, and sorry real quick, Like a couple

1051
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 3: things that jump out of me right away here is

1052
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:32,800
Speaker 3: look at how the Bengals struggled against the tight end.

1053
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 2: And just poor tackling. And if you have poor tackling

1054
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 2: against Josh Jacobs and Waller, I think that's right, you know,

1055
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:41,839
Speaker 2: that's that's the bread and butter for the Raiders team.

1056
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:45,479
Speaker 1: It's really the tackling man. It's so and I've talked

1057
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 1: about this a couple of times, but you know, because

1058
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: it hasn't always been terrible, Like it wasn't that terrible,

1059
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 1: like in their first game against the Seahawks, and then

1060
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 1: they came out in the second game against the forty

1061
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 1: nine ers, it was like, do you know how to tackle?

1062
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 1: Right now? What's happening? And it looked like that again

1063
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 1: against the Ravens. So yeah, I completely agree. I get it,

1064
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:05,360
Speaker 1: but you know, look, the Raiders defense is certainly not

1065
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 1: you know, impenetrable by any means. You know, they're pretty

1066
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 1: good against the run, but mixing you know, whether it

1067
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 1: was the Ravens taking their foot off the gas, I mean,

1068
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,359
Speaker 1: he certainly at least he got the workload and he's

1069
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 1: a talented back and he was able to you know,

1070
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 1: certainly put up a lot of stats in yesterday's game,

1071
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:24,440
Speaker 1: so you know, and finley, he obviously didn't look good,

1072
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 1: but he was able to move the ball at bit.

1073
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 1: So you know, I do think they'll be able to

1074
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 1: put up points here, but it's certainly something where I

1075
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 1: probably don't want to. But in the end, as long

1076
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 1: as it stays above ten, I'm probably gonna wind up

1077
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 1: holding my nose and taking the Bengals. And then you

1078
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 1: and I are going to talk the next time you're

1079
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 1: on and say, can you believe I'm still looking to

1080
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 1: take the Bengals on a terrible bet. Let's move on

1081
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:45,200
Speaker 1: here to the Bears. At the Rams. Rams are laying

1082
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:47,879
Speaker 1: six and a half. The over under has come down

1083
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,720
Speaker 1: from forty two to forty and a half. The Bears

1084
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:53,839
Speaker 1: finally show a little life on offense. After a slow

1085
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 1: start against the lines, yesterday, they lighted up offensively a

1086
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:00,360
Speaker 1: little bit with Mitchell Trubisky throwing for three touchdowns. Defense

1087
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 1: continues to be adequate, not spectacular, but certainly adequate. Meanwhile,

1088
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 1: the Rams they're just an utter disaster offensively. I mean,

1089
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 1: Blake Bortle's played in the game against the Steelers. That

1090
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 1: really should tell you all you need to know about

1091
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:16,479
Speaker 1: where they're at. They've had an injured and a poor

1092
00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 1: offensive line all year long. It got worse yesterday with

1093
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:22,360
Speaker 1: some more injuries. They just cannot protect jar Golf and

1094
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:25,239
Speaker 1: that is a worrisome thing with Khalil Mack getting ready

1095
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 1: to play. The defense does continue to play well here.

1096
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, since they added Jalen Ramsey especially,

1097
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 1: they've they've been pretty solid. But things are just not

1098
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 1: there right now for the Rams. So it's a pretty

1099
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 1: big spread. I mean, they are at home. I believe

1100
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:39,880
Speaker 1: this is the Sunday night game. So lank six and

1101
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 1: a half with the over under at forty and a half.

1102
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I guess this feels a little high initially,

1103
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 3: and again it's it's we're in a weird spot with Trubisky.

1104
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 3: I mean, the guy throws three touchdowns and no interceptions.

1105
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 2: But if you have any Bears fan, there's no.

1106
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 3: Way they would be happy if you named Chase Daniel

1107
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 3: to the start for this game and you highlighted a

1108
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,879
Speaker 3: great matchup and one I'll probably be looking to dive

1109
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 3: into more on my podcast, and that's the Rams offensive line.

1110
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 3: I was all over Pittsburgh last week because I thought,

1111
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 3: you know, TJ. Watt, he'd be able to get some

1112
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 3: pressure on Golf and Golf doesn't do well with pressure.

1113
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:22,280
Speaker 2: And the offensive line has just really struggled to protect

1114
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:23,359
Speaker 2: him and to give him time.

1115
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:25,399
Speaker 3: I mean like he really needs a lot of time

1116
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 3: to make the throws and to have Sean McVay explain

1117
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 3: what the defense is he needs. He needs a lot

1118
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 3: of time on the offensive side of the ball, and

1119
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 3: the Bears should be able to get some pressure against

1120
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 3: the Rams.

1121
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:39,800
Speaker 2: Chicago fans could show.

1122
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:43,239
Speaker 3: Up there in Los Angeles. I think the I think

1123
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 3: the Bears fans will show up for a game. You know,

1124
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 3: if you're living in Chicago, you're looking for an excuse

1125
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 3: to go out to Los Angeles to watch this game.

1126
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 3: So I think this could get down a little not

1127
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:56,719
Speaker 3: certainly down to a field goal, but I wouldn't be

1128
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:58,720
Speaker 3: surprised if this gets down to four and a half.

1129
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 3: I don't see enough people backing the Rams to move

1130
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:04,880
Speaker 3: this up to seven. If anything, I think it'll go

1131
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 3: down a little bit.

1132
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 1: No, I agree, I don't think it's going to get

1133
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 1: to seven. I just you know, this is a tough

1134
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 1: game because you know, you look at it and you

1135
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 1: really really see that the Rams are going to struggle

1136
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 1: to do anything offensively because Golf is just going to

1137
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: be running for his life. And again, I assume Randon

1138
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 1: Cooks is going to be out for this game. Josh

1139
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 1: Reynold's played okay yesterday, but I assume Cooks, who's still

1140
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 1: suffering from the concussions, if he plays it all this year.

1141
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 1: I really would be shocked if he plays this game.

1142
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 1: And you know, the Bears Trubisky, he was kind of

1143
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 1: like a batter in baseball that got really hot for

1144
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 1: like a really brief strift. Right It was like suddenly

1145
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:40,799
Speaker 1: things looked okay, and he he kind of was like, Oh,

1146
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:42,719
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, I'm comfortable this. I could just

1147
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 1: do this and this and this. But I don't think

1148
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 1: that you can expect that to last. As you mentioned,

1149
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:49,479
Speaker 1: I'm sure Bears fans are surely looking for someone else

1150
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:52,320
Speaker 1: to take over his quarterback at some point. To me, again,

1151
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 1: with forty two, I liked that over under at forty

1152
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 1: and a half. It's low, but I'm still kind of

1153
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,120
Speaker 1: feeling the under on it because I do think the

1154
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 1: Scubia game where neither team is going to be able

1155
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 1: to score, so of either of these lines, you know,

1156
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:08,120
Speaker 1: the spread it seems high to me. I agree, but

1157
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 1: I don't know if I have the intestinal forty two

1158
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:12,919
Speaker 1: to take the Bears. But I do think I still

1159
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:14,840
Speaker 1: like the under, even though it's dropping to forty and

1160
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:16,879
Speaker 1: a half. I still think above forty, I still think

1161
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 1: I like it because I could see this, you know again,

1162
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:22,239
Speaker 1: being a game that's just not particularly high scoring. Let's

1163
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 1: move on here to our final game, the Chiefs at

1164
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:27,319
Speaker 1: the Charters on Monday Night football. The Chiefs here are

1165
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:29,279
Speaker 1: laying three and a half. That's down from four and

1166
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 1: a half and the over unders at fifty three. Really

1167
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 1: tough loss for the Chiefs. Yesterday we talked about it.

1168
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 1: They had that game for the vast majority of it,

1169
00:50:36,640 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 1: but then the you know, the offense look pretty standard.

1170
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,520
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes back under center, running game is still a

1171
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 1: little weird. You had Lashaw McCoy inact of a healthy scratch.

1172
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:47,640
Speaker 1: Damian Williams was final, though he did fumble. The issue

1173
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 1: is really their defense. They can't stop anyone. They had

1174
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:51,839
Speaker 1: success in recent weeks a bit more when they were

1175
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:54,440
Speaker 1: blitzing all the time, but it's certainly not an elite

1176
00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 1: unit and far from it. Meanwhile, the Charters come off

1177
00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 1: the Thursday night loss to the Raiders probably the worst

1178
00:50:59,560 --> 00:51:01,839
Speaker 1: game I've ever seen Philip Rivers played. I said that

1179
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:05,840
Speaker 1: on last night podcast. I mean, he was just brutal

1180
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 1: in that entire game, especially in the last two minutes.

1181
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:11,319
Speaker 1: But you know, their offensive philosophy, they've kind of with

1182
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: the switch and coordinators, they've gotten back to what they

1183
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 1: do best, which is running the ball. And now that

1184
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:18,839
Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon has kind of had his quote unquote you know, preseason,

1185
00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:21,560
Speaker 1: he kind of looks back to where he was. They

1186
00:51:21,600 --> 00:51:24,120
Speaker 1: continue to struggle defensively, though a bit better with Melvin

1187
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 1: Ingram out there, but they have had injuries all year

1188
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:27,400
Speaker 1: that killed them. So how do you feel here the

1189
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:29,839
Speaker 1: Chiefs on the road at the Chargers, Although again there

1190
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 1: really is no home field for the Chargers at all.

1191
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 1: They're laying three and a half with an over under

1192
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:35,879
Speaker 1: really high of fifty three.

1193
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I yeah, this is gonna be all

1194
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 3: Chiefs fans for Monday Night because Chiefs Nation definitely travels,

1195
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:46,920
Speaker 3: so that's always annoying to play, you know, to bet

1196
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 3: on a home dog and then it's not really it

1197
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:51,040
Speaker 3: doesn't really feel like a home game. The Chargers have

1198
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:54,319
Speaker 3: really struggled at home against the spread. You mentioned it

1199
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:56,760
Speaker 3: worst game I've seen out of Philip Rivers.

1200
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 2: But I think Philip Rivers he's been struggling and.

1201
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 3: This could kind of be one of the last seasons

1202
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,319
Speaker 3: for Philip Rivers. I mean that two thousand and four

1203
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:07,399
Speaker 3: draft class does feel like it's kind of on its

1204
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:10,880
Speaker 3: last legs. So I don't know how many great games

1205
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 3: he has in the tank. But I think if you're

1206
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:15,840
Speaker 3: a Chargers backer, you're excited at the matchup because you

1207
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 3: have Melvin Gordon and Austin Eckler, and those those are

1208
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:22,479
Speaker 3: two running backs that the Chiefs really I think will

1209
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 3: have trouble handling.

1210
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 2: You know.

1211
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 3: I mean that was the Tennessee's game plan is like, hey,

1212
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:30,000
Speaker 3: get Henry involved. And use that running game to set

1213
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 3: up the passing game. I think this could get down

1214
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 3: to three. I would be surprised if it goes below

1215
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 3: three because you still have Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes,

1216
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:47,120
Speaker 3: you know, Andy Reid with a little extra time to prepare. Granted,

1217
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 3: the Chargers also have that, but I think, you know,

1218
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 3: Andy Reid is a much better coach than Anthony Lynn,

1219
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 3: So interesting matchups to kind of look at. I think

1220
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:58,680
Speaker 3: if the Chargers are looking to cover and win, you're

1221
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 3: going to do it through a running the ball. But yeah,

1222
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if this gets down to three

1223
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:06,320
Speaker 3: four and a half, which I saw some places opened

1224
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:10,719
Speaker 3: and up ass that seemed too high to me, And

1225
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be completely surprised if it goes under three. Yeah,

1226
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:19,880
Speaker 3: I think if you like the Chiefs, I would wait.

1227
00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:22,840
Speaker 2: I don't see it going too much higher for the Chargers.

1228
00:53:23,239 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 1: Yeah. This strikes me as something where I think the

1229
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:27,960
Speaker 1: public is probably going to like the Chiefs and the

1230
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:30,319
Speaker 1: sharp beetterers are probably going to like the Chargers at

1231
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 1: anything above a field goal because you know it is

1232
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 1: a matchup here with it sets up pretty well for

1233
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 1: the Chargers. Again, they know what they're doing now, they're

1234
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:39,799
Speaker 1: going to run the ball and again, you know, look,

1235
00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 1: Rivers has not been good. The only excuse I will

1236
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 1: make for him just you know, whether or not he's

1237
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:47,359
Speaker 1: you know, starting to near the end, which I mean eventually. Well,

1238
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:49,200
Speaker 1: I mean he's in his late thirties. Of course, not

1239
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 1: everybody can be Brady, but their offensive line has been

1240
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:54,720
Speaker 1: terrible and he's running for his life NonStop. But Keenan

1241
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 1: Allen did look healthier at least in this past game.

1242
00:53:57,239 --> 00:54:00,759
Speaker 1: Hunter Henry has really really been good since he's been back.

1243
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:02,959
Speaker 1: They still have Mike Williams. So it is a game

1244
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 1: frankly that you know, other than the fact that Patrick

1245
00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:07,840
Speaker 1: Mahomes can you know, whip off like you know, just

1246
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:10,840
Speaker 1: a short you know past to mcole Hardman who just

1247
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:13,799
Speaker 1: outruns everybody, or Tyreek Hill can just outrun everybody, it

1248
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:16,279
Speaker 1: is a game that I feel like kind of sets up,

1249
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:19,239
Speaker 1: okay for the Chargers coming off the Mini BI with

1250
00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 1: the Thursday night game, but it's not I don't really

1251
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:23,759
Speaker 1: know whether or not I'm gonna be able to pull

1252
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 1: the trigger again. I do think that this is probably

1253
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:29,880
Speaker 1: not I could see it maybe going to four, depending

1254
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 1: on how the money comes in, but more likely I

1255
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 1: agree that I think would be more like a field goal.

1256
00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 1: So I don't think there's any rush to bet on

1257
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:38,360
Speaker 1: this one. But at three and a half again, I

1258
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:40,440
Speaker 1: think you're going to see more of the public backing

1259
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:43,239
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and more of the sharp money probably back

1260
00:54:43,239 --> 00:54:43,880
Speaker 1: in the Chargers.

1261
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 2: Yeah that makes sense.

1262
00:54:45,719 --> 00:54:48,280
Speaker 1: All right, Well, I really appreciate you coming back on seoing.

1263
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:50,279
Speaker 1: Remind everyone where they can find more of you and

1264
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:50,800
Speaker 1: your work.

1265
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 2: Awesome.

1266
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:54,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll check us out over at sports Gambling podcast

1267
00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 3: dot com.

1268
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 2: We do a weekly DFS.

1269
00:54:56,480 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 3: Weekly college and weekly NFL picks podcast. And yeah, give

1270
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:02,160
Speaker 3: me a follow on Twitter at Shawn T. Green or

1271
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 3: follow the podcast at gambling Podcasts.

1272
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:06,200
Speaker 1: All right, man, hopefully we can do it at least

1273
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 1: once more and you can be the first four time guest.

1274
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,719
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, oh yeah, you're making history. All right. All right,

1275
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:13,719
Speaker 1: thanks again for coming on.

1276
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 2: Awesome.

1277
00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 1: Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM.

1278
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 1: Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use

1279
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:22,360
Speaker 1: the promo code Harris to get your risk free first

1280
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 1: wager of up to five hundred dollars, and don't forget

1281
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,239
Speaker 1: to rate and review the podcast and send a screenshot

1282
00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 1: of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com for

1283
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:32,800
Speaker 1: your chance to win a signed Odell Beckham Junior Brown's helmet.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back later this week giving some of our

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Speaker 1: best bets for Week eleven. I'll talk to you then