WEBVTT - US Seizes Iranian Ship; Japan Tsunami Warning

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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<v Speaker 3>stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 2>Karen, there are new tensions between the US and Iran

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<v Speaker 2>less than forty eight hours before a fragile ceasefire is

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<v Speaker 2>set to run out.

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<v Speaker 4>VAK your engine room, VAK your engine room.

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<v Speaker 5>We're prepared to subject you to disabling fire.

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<v Speaker 2>US Central Command posted that video of the Navy firing

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<v Speaker 2>upon then seizing any Iran flagged cargo ship in the

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<v Speaker 2>Gulf of Oman. It's the first time the US has

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<v Speaker 2>taken over a vessel since the blockade of the Strait

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<v Speaker 2>of Hormos began last week. It's casting doubt on talks

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<v Speaker 2>that President Trump had promised would seal the deal with

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<v Speaker 2>Iran tomorrow night. Bloomberg's Jumana Borsecci has more from Dubai.

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<v Speaker 6>This is a situation we're in right now. From optimism

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<v Speaker 6>on Friday and perhaps some vessels preparing themselves for passing

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<v Speaker 6>through these street safely had to u turn and now

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<v Speaker 6>we're back to Stanstil again. Essentially, no vessels, no ships,

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<v Speaker 6>nothing is being passed through. And not only is there

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<v Speaker 6>concern about what instructions to get from either side, whether

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<v Speaker 6>it's the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or whether it's the US,

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<v Speaker 6>but also real concerns about safety given the mounting dangers involved.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Juman Ebersetti reports President Trump is once again threatening

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<v Speaker 2>to destroy all of Iran's power plants and bridges if

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<v Speaker 2>talks fail. Iran's Foreign ministry says it still hasn't decided

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<v Speaker 2>if it's taking part. It says Iran's armed forces will

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<v Speaker 2>respond to any quote new adventure well Nathan.

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<v Speaker 3>The White House still says Vice President Jdvans will head

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<v Speaker 3>to Islama band to night to lead a second round

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<v Speaker 3>of talks along with Envoys Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner.

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<v Speaker 3>John Finer was chief of staff the former Secretary of St.

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<v Speaker 3>John Kerry when he negotiated the twenty fifteen nuclear deal

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<v Speaker 3>with Iran. He says talks with Taran are never going

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<v Speaker 3>to be easy.

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<v Speaker 7>Negotiations with the Iranians take time, they take patients, they

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<v Speaker 7>take expertise, and air dropping the Vice President into Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 4>For one day was never going to get the job done.

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<v Speaker 3>And former Trump Defense Secretary Mark Esper says it's unclear

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<v Speaker 3>whether the two sides will even talk this week.

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<v Speaker 7>The President's been saying that we're very very close to

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<v Speaker 7>a deal, that it's that they want it really badly.

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<v Speaker 7>And then what you hear coming out of Iran as

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<v Speaker 7>recently as last twenty four hours, where the lead negotiator,

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<v Speaker 7>Speaker Glibaf, has said, yes, progress was made in Islamabad

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<v Speaker 7>last week, but we are far from a significant There

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<v Speaker 7>are significant differences between our negotiating positions.

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<v Speaker 3>Mark Esper and John Finder, we're guests on Bloomberg this weekend.

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<v Speaker 3>Catch the show Saturdays and Sundays from seven am Eastern

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<v Speaker 3>on Bloomberg Radio and Television and the Bloomberg Business app.

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<v Speaker 8>Karen.

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<v Speaker 2>Stocks are falling in oil is rising on the latest

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<v Speaker 2>war developments. SMP futures are trading at seventy one twenty

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<v Speaker 2>nine right now. That's the drop of about a half percent.

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<v Speaker 2>US Texas Intermediate right now is up five point seven percent,

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<v Speaker 2>trading at eighty eight to sixty five. A barrel Brent

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<v Speaker 2>is up five percent at ninety five dollars.

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<v Speaker 8>Even.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Intelligence Senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone says oil prices

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<v Speaker 2>are in a new range that will eventually decrease, but

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<v Speaker 2>not for a while.

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<v Speaker 9>Given the recent news, is probably going to be up

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<v Speaker 9>a little bit. But I think oil is stuck in

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<v Speaker 9>a new range now between eighty and one hundred. If

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<v Speaker 9>we stay above one hundred, that breaks things. We're seeing

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<v Speaker 9>what happens when crudeil rallies at such high velocity. The

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<v Speaker 9>whole global economy is tilting downward. GDP estimates are lower.

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<v Speaker 9>Stays above one hundred, it'll make it go lower blow eighty.

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<v Speaker 9>I think eventually it'll get there, but not right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Intelligence Senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone says oil has

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<v Speaker 2>risen thirty three percent since the start of the war.

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<v Speaker 3>Now to a developing story Nathan, A tsunami warning has

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<v Speaker 3>been issued for Japan's northeast coast after a seven point

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<v Speaker 3>four earthquake hit the region, and Bloomberg's John Hirskovitz has

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<v Speaker 3>the latest from Tokyo.

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<v Speaker 4>We have the tsunami warning that's been issued for a

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<v Speaker 4>large parts of the northeast coast, especially around the Ewaatee area.

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<v Speaker 4>This was the part that was hit was devastated by

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<v Speaker 4>the twenty eleven tsunami. The warning is up for up

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<v Speaker 4>to three meters for areas of ewate.

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<v Speaker 3>And bloomerge down. Hrskobat says in twenty eleven, a magnitude

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<v Speaker 3>nine point zero earthquake and tsunami caused more than twenty

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<v Speaker 3>two thousand deaths and forced nearly half a million people

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<v Speaker 3>to flay their homes.

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<v Speaker 2>In Europe, Karen, Bulgaria's former president Roman Radif, has claimed

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<v Speaker 2>an overwhelming victory in his country's general election. His Progressive

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<v Speaker 2>Bulgaria Party, which opposes sanctions on Russia and military aid

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<v Speaker 2>for Ukraine, is headed for an outright majority in the

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<v Speaker 2>eighth general election in Bulgaria since twenty twenty one.

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<v Speaker 3>Well back here in the US, Nathan tragedy in Louisiana

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<v Speaker 3>and the deadliest mass shooting in the country in more

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<v Speaker 3>than two years, A father killed eight children, including seven

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<v Speaker 3>of his own, and shot two women in two homes

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<v Speaker 3>in Shreveport, Louisiana. Shreveport Police Corporal Chris Bordalan spoke to

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<v Speaker 3>CBS News about the situation.

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<v Speaker 10>He drove into a neighborhood and exited the vehicle, and

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<v Speaker 10>initial indication as.

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<v Speaker 3>He produced a handgun who returned fire ultimately killing the suspect.

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<v Speaker 3>Shreveport Police Corporal Chris Bordelan said the gunman was identified

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<v Speaker 3>as thirty one year old a Shamar Elkins. A cousin

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<v Speaker 3>said one of the women was married to the shooter

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<v Speaker 3>and they had been arguing about a separation and were

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<v Speaker 3>due in court. Today's turn to other news.

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<v Speaker 2>Now this morning, Karen, it is Patriots Day in Boston,

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<v Speaker 2>and that means in just a few hours, tens of

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<v Speaker 2>thousands of runners will pound the pavement for the Boston Marathon.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Monica Ricks checked out the lineup.

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<v Speaker 11>More than thirty thousand runners from all over the world

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<v Speaker 11>we'll be running this year's Boston Marathon, and retired astronaut

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<v Speaker 11>Sonny Williams will be one of them. This will be

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<v Speaker 11>her second Boston Marathon, but her first on Earth. Back

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<v Speaker 11>in two thousand and seven, Williams ran it tethered to

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<v Speaker 11>a treadmill aboard the International Space Date and her time

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<v Speaker 11>wasn't bad. She did it in four hours and twenty

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<v Speaker 11>four minutes. Now today, Williams will also receive the annual

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<v Speaker 11>Patriots Award from the Boston Athletic Association for her inspiration

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<v Speaker 11>and service past recipients include former Boston mayor Marty Walsh,

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<v Speaker 11>former New England Patriots star Rob Gronkowski and Patriots owner

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<v Speaker 11>Robert Kraft, and Red Sox legend David Big Poppy or

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<v Speaker 11>Tease Monica Ricks Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, Monica, thank you, Let's turn back to the

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<v Speaker 3>economy now. The Senate Banking Committee is slated to holiday

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<v Speaker 3>confirmation hearing tomorrow for President Trump's pick to be the

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<v Speaker 3>next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Bloomberg's Tom Busby has

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<v Speaker 3>more on what to look for well.

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<v Speaker 5>The hearing for former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh will

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<v Speaker 5>likely focus on his thoughts about where interest rates should be.

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<v Speaker 5>Look for discussions about maintaining the Fed's independence from President Trump.

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<v Speaker 5>Also Warsh's desired a free up capital with a sharp

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<v Speaker 5>rollback in the Fed's massive crisis era balance sheet, and

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<v Speaker 5>his support for rolling back the fed's requirements for bank

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<v Speaker 5>liquidity levels. Also for his financial filings that showed he's

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<v Speaker 5>worth at least one hundred and ninety two million dollars

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<v Speaker 5>maybe more, and that his wife Jane Lauder, a granddaughter

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<v Speaker 5>of the cosmetics firm founder Essay Lauder, could be worth billions.

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<v Speaker 5>Tom buzby Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>Time Now for look at some of other stories making

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<v Speaker 3>news in New York and around the world. And for

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<v Speaker 3>that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael, Good Morning.

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<v Speaker 12>Good morning, Karen. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer says he

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<v Speaker 12>is outraged over FIFA's plan to charge World Cup fans

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<v Speaker 12>one hundred and fifty dollars for train tickets. Mettlive Stadium

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<v Speaker 12>in New Jersey is hosting eight World Cup matches, including

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<v Speaker 12>the final, and the only way to get to the

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<v Speaker 12>stadium will be by taking a New Jersey Transit train

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<v Speaker 12>from Penn Station, New York. Schumer said NJ Transit is

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<v Speaker 12>paying forty eight million dollars to transport World Cup fans

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<v Speaker 12>while FIFA pays nothing.

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<v Speaker 8>So FIFA is forcing every fan onto public transit and

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<v Speaker 8>then saying you got to pay one hundred and fifty

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<v Speaker 8>dollars to help New Jersey Transit carry them.

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<v Speaker 4>What the hell? Who the hell do they think they are.

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<v Speaker 12>Senator Schumer says FIFA should cover the cost of getting

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<v Speaker 12>fans to the World Cup at Medlife Stadium. New York

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<v Speaker 12>mayors are on Mamdanie Hail to proposed annual surcharge on

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<v Speaker 12>some owners of second homes in the city as an

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<v Speaker 12>important step in his pledge to raise taxes on the wealthy.

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<v Speaker 12>Mamdannie on NBC's Meet the Press Sunday, says he believes

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<v Speaker 12>in the importance of taxing the rich.

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<v Speaker 10>I tell them, unless they make more than a million

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<v Speaker 10>dollars a year, or own some of the most profitable

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<v Speaker 10>corporations in our city, or have a second home that's

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<v Speaker 10>worth more than five million dollars, than these are not

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<v Speaker 10>taxes that apply to them. And what I've sought to

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<v Speaker 10>make this city the most expensive in the United States

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<v Speaker 10>of America is one that's affordable for the people who

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<v Speaker 10>have been priced out of it.

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<v Speaker 12>NBC's Meet the Press is heard Sundays on Bloomberg. The

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<v Speaker 12>first American pot Iff, Pope Leo, is wrapping up his

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<v Speaker 12>eleven day landmark papal trip to Africa. Throughout it, he

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<v Speaker 12>has made a consistent call for peace and unity. More

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<v Speaker 12>than a fifth of the world's Catholics are in Africa

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<v Speaker 12>and a driving force our young people. Pope Leo is

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<v Speaker 12>expected to meet with the Catholic leaders in Angola before

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<v Speaker 12>he heads to the Equatorial Guinea on Tuesday for the

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<v Speaker 12>final stop in his papal trip. Global news twenty four

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<v Speaker 12>hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 12>News Now Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg Karen.

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<v Speaker 5>Thanks Michael.

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<v Speaker 3>Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and for that

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<v Speaker 3>we bring in John stash Hour.

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<v Speaker 7>Thanks Dared.

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<v Speaker 8>One surprise in the NBA playoffs, eighth seed of Orlando

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<v Speaker 8>won at top seeded Detroit one twelve to one oh

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<v Speaker 8>one in Game one of that series. The Buffalo Sabers

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<v Speaker 8>first Stanley Cup playoff game in fifteen years. They trailed

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<v Speaker 8>the Bruins two nothing with eight minutes ago. The scored

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<v Speaker 8>four goals in seven minutes. The Sabers won four to three.

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<v Speaker 8>The Cubs beat the Mets two to one, and ten

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<v Speaker 8>means the Mets have lost eleven games in a row.

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<v Speaker 8>The Heritage Golf in Hilton Head went to a playoff

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<v Speaker 8>in Matt Fitzpatrick burnied on the first extra hole to

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<v Speaker 8>beat Scottie Scheffler. That's your Bloomberg Sports update.

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<v Speaker 3>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg day Break coming up

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<v Speaker 3>after this.

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<v Speaker 1>Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio Nationwide on Sirius XM

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<v Speaker 1>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Appum. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager, monitoring developing news off the

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<v Speaker 2>coast of northeast Japan, where a powerful earthquake has sparked

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<v Speaker 2>tsunami warnings and a part of the country devastated by

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<v Speaker 2>shaking and waves more than a decade ago. Joining us

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<v Speaker 2>from Tokyo is Bloomberg's John Hirskowitz. John, Good morning, What

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<v Speaker 2>do we know about this quake? What's the latest.

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<v Speaker 4>Short The quake came in at a magnitude of seven

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<v Speaker 4>point five, It hit offshore, and right now the tsunami

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<v Speaker 4>wave is coming in in various parts of Japan. The

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<v Speaker 4>warning was up to three meters this is about ten

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<v Speaker 4>feet one story of a building. But the actual tsunami

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<v Speaker 4>that's come ashore, the highest point so far we've seen

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<v Speaker 4>is at eighty centimeters, so that's good news. It's not

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<v Speaker 4>as big so far as the warning has been up

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<v Speaker 4>and down the coasts. There are sea walls which should

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<v Speaker 4>contain the tsunami as it comes in, but the warning

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<v Speaker 4>is still in effect. So we've seen this. We've seen

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<v Speaker 4>the prime minister. The Meteorological Agency warned people to get

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<v Speaker 4>to higher ground. We've seen trains being service being delayed

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<v Speaker 4>cut off. The Meteorological Agency of Japan has warned that

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<v Speaker 4>we could see similar strong quakes for about a week

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<v Speaker 4>in this area. So the warning is still up there.

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<v Speaker 4>For the tsunami, the warning is still up for three meters,

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<v Speaker 4>but so far what's coming shore has the highest point

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<v Speaker 4>has been eighty centimeters in Kouji Inywate. This is the

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<v Speaker 4>place that was devastated in twenty eleven by the earthquake tsunami.

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<v Speaker 4>Lower down the coast is Fukushima where the nuclear plant

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<v Speaker 4>had the meltdown disaster. So so far, no abnormalities or

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<v Speaker 4>any power plants, so everything it's of concern, but so

0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:14.400
<v Speaker 4>far nothing devastating as we saw in twenty eleven.

0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:17.000
<v Speaker 2>I think you were there in twenty eleven, weren't you

0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:21.000
<v Speaker 2>in that awful Fukushima disaster. It sounds as though things

0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:23.320
<v Speaker 2>might not be as bad as they were then, but

0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:25.280
<v Speaker 2>put it into that context for us.

0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:28.760
<v Speaker 4>Sure, I went a few days after the tsunami hit

0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:31.400
<v Speaker 4>in twenty eleven up and down the coast and it

0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:36.360
<v Speaker 4>was just absolute devastation and you could see you're driving

0:12:36.559 --> 0:12:39.200
<v Speaker 4>on a road and there is a tanker in the

0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:44.200
<v Speaker 4>middle of the road. Everything was just stirred up. Your

0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:47.640
<v Speaker 4>GPS didn't work because the roads no longer existed over

0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:50.720
<v Speaker 4>a block. There were devastating fires that came out of

0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:57.520
<v Speaker 4>the tsunami, and it was just absolute devastation for so

0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:02.199
<v Speaker 4>many for all up and down the cost. After that,

0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:05.440
<v Speaker 4>Japan rebuilt. I went back there a few years ago.

0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:09.200
<v Speaker 4>There are sea walls in place at a much higher level.

0:13:09.440 --> 0:13:13.480
<v Speaker 4>The power plants have had various furnishings that make them

0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:18.360
<v Speaker 4>safer than before. The people are concerned. When the warning

0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:22.520
<v Speaker 4>comes in, people get to high ground as quickly as possible.

0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:27.200
<v Speaker 4>Is it's a serious matter when the waves may be

0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:30.280
<v Speaker 4>coming in not as high as predicted, but the devastation

0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:31.880
<v Speaker 4>that was there before. I think there was up to

0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:36.560
<v Speaker 4>twenty thousand people killed or missing from that tsunami, so

0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:42.120
<v Speaker 4>it is a huge concern. So far, things are serious,

0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:45.080
<v Speaker 4>but we're not at anywhere near the level that we

0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:46.360
<v Speaker 4>saw in twenty eleven.

0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:48.880
<v Speaker 2>Okay, So this earthquake was in the northeast or off

0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:52.160
<v Speaker 2>the northeast coast of Japan. You're in Tokyo to the southeast,

0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:54.680
<v Speaker 2>just quickly, John, did you feel it from where you are?

0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:58.920
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I'm in the Bloomberg office. It's on the twenty

0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:01.600
<v Speaker 4>second serve of a building. The building was swaying a bit.

0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:05.679
<v Speaker 4>The elevators were cut off for maybe about twenty thirty minutes,

0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:11.080
<v Speaker 4>so we felt it here. The Japan uses an intensity

0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:14.160
<v Speaker 4>scale which measures the shaking on the ground. Seven is

0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:19.080
<v Speaker 4>the highest. This is like absolute devastation. In Iwate Prefecture,

0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:22.040
<v Speaker 4>it came in at about a five. In Tokyo it

0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:23.960
<v Speaker 4>was a three, which meant that we could feel it,

0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:28.400
<v Speaker 4>but no real damage to structures. Iwate, they may see

0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:32.240
<v Speaker 4>some damage structures, but not at the highest level, which

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:36.440
<v Speaker 4>would be a seven. So magnitude and intensity. Japan uses

0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:40.600
<v Speaker 4>two scales. Earthquake at seven point five magnitude. The intensity

0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.600
<v Speaker 4>was about a five at the worst.

0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:46.200
<v Speaker 2>Okay, Well, appreciate you coming on with us, John and

0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:49.320
<v Speaker 2>bringing us the very latest on what is happening in

0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:53.960
<v Speaker 2>Japan this morning evening in Japan. That's Bloomberg's John Hirskovitz

0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:58.200
<v Speaker 2>joining us this morning of the earthquake from Tokyo this morning.

0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:00.840
<v Speaker 2>But now we want to turn to the major story,

0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:04.680
<v Speaker 2>and of course that is the ceasefire between the US

0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:07.640
<v Speaker 2>and Iran with less than forty eight hours until it's

0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:10.840
<v Speaker 2>due to expire, there is new uncertainty about where the

0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 2>war goes from here after the US seized an Iran

0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:17.080
<v Speaker 2>backed cargo ship over the weekend, joining US from Dubai.

0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:20.520
<v Speaker 2>Now is Bloomberg Middle East correspondent Jumana Bursecci, the anchor

0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:24.280
<v Speaker 2>of Bloomberg Horizons. And of course, before these latest developments

0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.600
<v Speaker 2>over the weekend, Jumana, there were a lot of hopes

0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:29.160
<v Speaker 2>that there were going to be talks as soon as

0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:33.320
<v Speaker 2>tomorrow between the US and Iran. Where do things stand now?

0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 6>Good morning, Absolutely, good morning. There's a lot to wait

0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:39.200
<v Speaker 6>through from this weekend. You know, a lot of optimism

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:42.560
<v Speaker 6>on Friday afternoon after a series of posts that President

0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:45.000
<v Speaker 6>Chump put up almost suggesting that the war was over.

0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:47.920
<v Speaker 6>But then of course things turned around over the course

0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:51.160
<v Speaker 6>of the weekend and this morning, as you were just

0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:55.160
<v Speaker 6>talking about, we know that Sancom actually seized an Iranian

0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:59.600
<v Speaker 6>linked vessel in implementation of their own blockade that is

0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:02.120
<v Speaker 6>still going throughout the Strait of Homos, so the street

0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:04.920
<v Speaker 6>is still effectively shot. But at the same time, the

0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:08.080
<v Speaker 6>US side has indicated that they plan to go ahead

0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:11.560
<v Speaker 6>with these talks in Islamabad. The plan is for Jdevans

0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:15.280
<v Speaker 6>once again to lead the discussions alongside Steve Witkoff and

0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:18.440
<v Speaker 6>Jared Kushner, and that they are expected to leave the

0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:22.600
<v Speaker 6>US tonight, so tonight US time, landing in Islamabad tomorrow

0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:27.120
<v Speaker 6>morning for discussions. However, the Iranian side are being COI

0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:29.800
<v Speaker 6>we just don't know at this point whether they plan

0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:33.120
<v Speaker 6>on attending. We heard from the Iranian Form ministry spokesperson

0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:35.960
<v Speaker 6>about an hour ago and he said no final decision

0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.640
<v Speaker 6>had been made. Over the course of the weekend. The

0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:41.960
<v Speaker 6>speaker of the parliament, Mahma Galimov, did suggest that the

0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.520
<v Speaker 6>progress had been made, but there was still a lot

0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:47.600
<v Speaker 6>of daylight between the two sides. And then more recently

0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:51.080
<v Speaker 6>this morning, the Iranian President Paseshkian said there is no

0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:53.640
<v Speaker 6>appetite for a return to fighting and that all rational

0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:56.320
<v Speaker 6>and diplomatic revenues should be used to reduce tensions. So

0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:59.600
<v Speaker 6>you can piece all the messaging together, which suggests that

0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:02.920
<v Speaker 6>there is perhaps still hope that the Iranian delegation show

0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:05.720
<v Speaker 6>up to these meetings. They just haven't confirmed it yet.

0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:08.200
<v Speaker 2>Well, and there's still a question, isn't there about whether

0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:11.639
<v Speaker 2>the ceasefire is still in effect. We've heard some commentary

0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:15.320
<v Speaker 2>from the Iranian side that they consider the seizure of

0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:17.360
<v Speaker 2>this cargo ship of potential violation.

0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:20.520
<v Speaker 6>Yes, and I think that was the big question as

0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:23.520
<v Speaker 6>we walked in this morning, just exactly how the Iranians

0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.719
<v Speaker 6>would respond and the IRGC, which is of course the

0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:29.480
<v Speaker 6>military wing, and earlier I was referencing a lot of

0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:33.280
<v Speaker 6>comments from the official side of around the Iranian delegation.

0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:38.040
<v Speaker 6>But the IRGC are livid that the US actually went

0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.720
<v Speaker 6>ahead and seized the vessel. They vowed to retaliate. So far,

0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:44.760
<v Speaker 6>we have not seen that retaliation. Remains to be seen

0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:46.520
<v Speaker 6>what it's going to look like and if that would

0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:52.040
<v Speaker 6>really amount to another military estillation or a repeat of

0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:53.720
<v Speaker 6>some of the hostilities that we saw a couple of

0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:55.600
<v Speaker 6>weeks ago. One other thing that I would just say

0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:59.480
<v Speaker 6>as well, as President Trump also suggested that once again,

0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:04.480
<v Speaker 6>if there is no breakthrough this time around, he's threatening

0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:08.400
<v Speaker 6>to once again attack power plants and a key civilian

0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:10.760
<v Speaker 6>infrastructure in Iran. So sort of a repeat of the

0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:12.919
<v Speaker 6>threat that we had a couple of weeks ago, and

0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:15.959
<v Speaker 6>unlikely that that has gone down well either in Iran.

0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:19.360
<v Speaker 6>So they have to make a decision between the two

0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:23.919
<v Speaker 6>factions here, the military wing who want to respond to

0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:27.439
<v Speaker 6>the US provocations, and then the diplomatic wing who have

0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:30.840
<v Speaker 6>been representing Iran at these talks that seem to indicate

0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:33.040
<v Speaker 6>that they want to continue and go down the path

0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:35.720
<v Speaker 6>of diplomacy as opposed to further military escalation.

0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:39.879
<v Speaker 2>That raises another overriding question that's been hovering over this

0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:42.960
<v Speaker 2>for so many weeks, if not months, as to which

0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:47.280
<v Speaker 2>of those wings speaks for the Iranian government as a whole.

0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:51.800
<v Speaker 2>But even if these talks were to get underway tomorrow

0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:55.640
<v Speaker 2>in Islamabad Jumana, the two sides are still very far

0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:57.480
<v Speaker 2>apart on the fundamental issues.

0:18:57.200 --> 0:18:57.600
<v Speaker 12>Aren't they.

0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:01.320
<v Speaker 6>Yeah. And the fundamental issue, of course, is not just

0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.480
<v Speaker 6>the strait. And by the way, the straight reopening was

0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:07.199
<v Speaker 6>one of the key features of the ceasefire that was

0:19:07.240 --> 0:19:10.199
<v Speaker 6>supposed to be implemented a couple of weeks ago, and

0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:13.200
<v Speaker 6>the strait never fully reopened. I should just remind everybody,

0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:18.080
<v Speaker 6>But the fundamental issue here is nuclear ambition, and of course,

0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:22.840
<v Speaker 6>you know, the US are pushing for maximum concessions out

0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:25.560
<v Speaker 6>of the Iranian side, and over the course of the weekend,

0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:29.199
<v Speaker 6>once again, the Iranian State TV repeated that what the

0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:32.560
<v Speaker 6>US are asking for is too maximalist for them, and

0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:37.439
<v Speaker 6>of notes, here is number one their nuclear ambition in

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:40.879
<v Speaker 6>terms of the amount of enrichment that the US will

0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:44.119
<v Speaker 6>allow for them to continue with, and the Iranian position

0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:46.000
<v Speaker 6>has always been that they should be allowed for a

0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:50.840
<v Speaker 6>low level of uranium enrichment for civilian purposes. And then

0:19:50.840 --> 0:19:54.480
<v Speaker 6>the second big question is what happens that fate of

0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:57.760
<v Speaker 6>the enriched stockpile that they're already sitting on, which is

0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:00.159
<v Speaker 6>more than four hundred kilos worth or one thousand pounds.

0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:03.439
<v Speaker 6>And again they've repeated the message over the weekends that

0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:05.960
<v Speaker 6>there are no plans to transfer it outside the country.

0:20:05.960 --> 0:20:08.479
<v Speaker 6>There are multiple media reports suggesting that a deal had

0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:12.000
<v Speaker 6>been struck. And then the final point is what the

0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:15.480
<v Speaker 6>US plan to do with those sanctions and whether some

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:20.400
<v Speaker 6>deal would entail a lifting of sanctions or unfreezing Iranian

0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:22.679
<v Speaker 6>assets around the world. At this point we don't know,

0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:25.720
<v Speaker 6>but we do have a better understanding of what the

0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:27.359
<v Speaker 6>framework of the discussion is.

0:20:29.160 --> 0:20:32.600
<v Speaker 3>This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories

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