WEBVTT - Matt Hougan Discusses Cryptocurrency and ETF Indexes (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>This is Masters in Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>This week on the podcast, I have a special guest.

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<v Speaker 1>Matt Hogan is a friend who I know through his

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<v Speaker 1>work at inside e t F S as well as

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<v Speaker 1>the inside et F H Big Conference. I also know

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<v Speaker 1>him from his days running e t F dot com

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<v Speaker 1>and he more recently joined a crypto fund where they

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<v Speaker 1>are producing the very first index of crypto coins, which

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<v Speaker 1>is quite fascinating. If you're at all interested in anything

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<v Speaker 1>from the gamut of e t f S to Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>and quite bluntly bitcoins held in e t f S

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<v Speaker 1>and everything in between, then this is the conversation that's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be for you. There are few people who are

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<v Speaker 1>more knowledgeable about the entire process of creating, managing, mark

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<v Speaker 1>ing UH, and administrating e t fs UH than Matt.

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<v Speaker 1>And taking that skill set and bringing it to a

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<v Speaker 1>crypto firm where he's basically going to try and do

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<v Speaker 1>for various crypto coins and crypto assets what he helped

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<v Speaker 1>do with E t F S UH is really quite

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<v Speaker 1>a fascinating conversation. I think those folks who are interested

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<v Speaker 1>in this space will find it endlessly informative and entertaining,

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<v Speaker 1>So with no further ado, my conversation with Matt Hogan.

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<v Speaker 1>My special guest this week is Matt Hogan. He is

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<v Speaker 1>the global head of research at bit Wise Asset Management.

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<v Speaker 1>Prior to that, he was the chairman and pretty much

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<v Speaker 1>chief cook and bottle washer at u e t F

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com that was purchased by Informa and the Inside

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<v Speaker 1>et F conference is the biggest ETF conference in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>You're you're still chairman of that event. I'm still chairman

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<v Speaker 1>of that event. Yeah, I love it very much. Bit

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<v Speaker 1>Wise Asset Management is the creator of the world's first

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<v Speaker 1>cryptocurrency index fund. Matt Hogan, Welcome to Bloomberg. Thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>having me, Barry. I've been looking forward to this. I

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<v Speaker 1>am a little bit of a bitcoin skeptic, but I'm

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<v Speaker 1>open minded because I'm somewhat fascinated by the underlying blockchain technology,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, I'm interested in anything related to either

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<v Speaker 1>E t F or indexes. So let's let's jump right

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<v Speaker 1>into this. And why don't we start with your work

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<v Speaker 1>at et F dot com right? What did you do there? So?

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<v Speaker 1>I I started as a freelance reporter for its predecessor,

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<v Speaker 1>which was index universe and over that we left the

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<v Speaker 1>worst u r O in the world with Index Universe

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<v Speaker 1>and not a winner. No. E t F dot Com

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<v Speaker 1>is just marginally better. Oh really, I would think that's

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<v Speaker 1>a no brainer. I think it was a no brain.

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<v Speaker 1>So we switched to et F dot Com. I eventually

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<v Speaker 1>became the CEO of the business. Some of the things

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<v Speaker 1>I'm most proud of that we did there. We built

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<v Speaker 1>the largest et F conference in the world. Inside e

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<v Speaker 1>t F s we built the first e t F

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<v Speaker 1>classification and ratings system. It's hard to imagine an e

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<v Speaker 1>t F land that eight or nine years ago, things

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<v Speaker 1>like tracking error were not available to most. That's just

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<v Speaker 1>that's just entry level stuff. Is entry level stuff, but

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<v Speaker 1>it didn't exist. No one had even gone through the

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<v Speaker 1>perspectus is to make sure that they were actually tracking

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<v Speaker 1>total return indexes. Uh. It was a mess. So we

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<v Speaker 1>built the first classification and rating system, which we subsequently sold.

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<v Speaker 1>The fact sets now powers And that's how our mutual

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<v Speaker 1>friend David Neated previously ended up at a fact set

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<v Speaker 1>and then didn't they get bought by was it c Bolt?

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<v Speaker 1>So so we sold our business in three separate sales.

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<v Speaker 1>We sold our data business to fact Set, our events

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<v Speaker 1>business to inform A, and our media business. E t

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<v Speaker 1>F dot Com the property to CBOE which is now

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<v Speaker 1>BATS where we sold it to BATS which is now

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<v Speaker 1>cbo E. To confuse matters more, we sold Dave with

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<v Speaker 1>the data business to facts Set, and then he left

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<v Speaker 1>facts Set to go to e t F dot Com

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<v Speaker 1>at cbo E BATS. So it's it's virtually impossible to

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<v Speaker 1>keep straight here. Now, Well, that explains my my lack

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<v Speaker 1>of understanding. So so your CEO of e t F

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com at the start of the I guess, for

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<v Speaker 1>lack of a better word, the e t F era,

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<v Speaker 1>what was the industry like you mentioned some of the

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<v Speaker 1>real basic metrics that everybody takes for granted with mutual

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<v Speaker 1>funds that didn't exist. For people have to remember that

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<v Speaker 1>early in the days of e TF no one believed

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<v Speaker 1>in them, no one trusted them, and no one understood them.

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<v Speaker 1>There were huge myths about e t F liquidity. People

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<v Speaker 1>didn't know what a creation redemption was, and people have

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<v Speaker 1>no way to even answer basic questions like what are

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<v Speaker 1>all the emerging market ETFs that didn't exist? Uh, no

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<v Speaker 1>way to answer how well does this et F track

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<v Speaker 1>it's index. So we spend a huge amount of time.

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<v Speaker 1>I must have explained creation redemption. That's the thing that

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<v Speaker 1>I think most of the investing public understands. The least Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>give us a thirty second version. What is creation and

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<v Speaker 1>redemption of the underlying in an et sure? So let

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<v Speaker 1>me start with mutual funds, because people understand them better.

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<v Speaker 1>When you invest money in a mutual fund, you send

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<v Speaker 1>them cash, and then the mutual fund managers sits on

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<v Speaker 1>that cash overnight. Then they come into work and they

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<v Speaker 1>pick which stocks to buy, and they buy stocks with

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<v Speaker 1>that cash, and usually they're buying their existing model. Here's

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<v Speaker 1>what our core holdings look like. Oh we've gotten this

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<v Speaker 1>much inflow. Great, go out and buy pro rata everything

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<v Speaker 1>we already own in proportion. And then when you want

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<v Speaker 1>your money back, the exact same thing happens in reverse.

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<v Speaker 1>You say I want my hundred thousand dollars back, They

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<v Speaker 1>sell a hundred thousand dollars of whatever stocks are out

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<v Speaker 1>of favor, and they send you your ash. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>that's a creation and a redemption in the mutual fund.

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<v Speaker 1>But you're doing it in an e t F. When

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<v Speaker 1>you buy an e t F, you just buy it

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<v Speaker 1>like you buy shares of IBM. I buy my shares

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<v Speaker 1>like a closed funds, just on the exchange, right. I

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<v Speaker 1>might buy a hundred shares of SPY and you might

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<v Speaker 1>be selling it, and we'll get matched at the exchange level.

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<v Speaker 1>What happens with an e t F is instead of

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<v Speaker 1>the e t F going out and buying the securities,

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<v Speaker 1>it publishes a list of what securities it wants to buy,

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<v Speaker 1>and a big institutional investor called an authorized participant goes

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<v Speaker 1>out and acquires that list of securities. Say it's the

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<v Speaker 1>SMP five hundred. They buy all five hundred securities, and

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<v Speaker 1>then they send all five hundred securities to the e

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<v Speaker 1>t F company in exchange for the same value of

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<v Speaker 1>shares in the e t F, which they can just

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<v Speaker 1>send sell on the broke on the on the markets.

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<v Speaker 1>Same thing happens in reverse. When these aps want to

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<v Speaker 1>redeem shares, they say, we want to we have fifty

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<v Speaker 1>thousand shares of the e t F. They send the

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<v Speaker 1>fifty thou shares to the e t F company, and

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<v Speaker 1>the e t F company sends them the equivalent dollar

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<v Speaker 1>amount in stocks, which they can then out that You

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<v Speaker 1>may wonder why does that matter? And it matters for

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<v Speaker 1>a bunch of different reasons. I'll give you two. So first,

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<v Speaker 1>think about when you send money to a mutual fund company.

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<v Speaker 1>They have to hire people who go into the market,

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<v Speaker 1>decide what to buy, trade. It costs money that raises

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<v Speaker 1>the fees. Uh. The other reason it matters is when

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<v Speaker 1>you redeem from a mutual fund, they have to sell

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<v Speaker 1>actual stocks. If those stocks have appreciated in value, they

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<v Speaker 1>realize capital gains and the fund. The horrible thing about

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<v Speaker 1>the mutual fund industry is at the end of the year,

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<v Speaker 1>everyone who still owns those funds has to pay taxes

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<v Speaker 1>based on the fact that you left. Someone else sold

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<v Speaker 1>generated a capital gain tax event, and the people who

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<v Speaker 1>didn't sell are on the hook are left holding the bag.

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<v Speaker 1>So I always look at ETFs as having to really

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<v Speaker 1>um attractive qualities. One is there if you decide to

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<v Speaker 1>sell your ETF and I don't, I don't get stuck

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<v Speaker 1>with your capital gains. And second that whole um create

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<v Speaker 1>and redemption process means as long as the underlying holdings

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<v Speaker 1>have liquidly there's never a liquidly problem with the broader

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<v Speaker 1>SMP like E t F or Am I wrong? No,

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<v Speaker 1>you are absolutely right. I actually think if the e

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<v Speaker 1>t F came first, the SEC would never approved a

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<v Speaker 1>mutual fund structure. Right, you're gonna make people share in

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<v Speaker 1>the tax event. That's insane socialism for the tax for investors. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's totally It's totally right. And you're absolutely right about

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<v Speaker 1>the liquidity as long as the underlying as liquid. The

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<v Speaker 1>e t F is liquid, which is why and people

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<v Speaker 1>get this wrong. Uh, the only bond funds that have

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<v Speaker 1>blown up have been bond mutual funds because they have

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<v Speaker 1>to redeem out and so liquid. Very often it's only

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<v Speaker 1>the top third or top half of the bonds, and

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of big indexes trade regularly. Are are deep

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<v Speaker 1>and wide and have a lot, but by the time

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<v Speaker 1>you get to the thousandth holding, it trades every Tuesday

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<v Speaker 1>by appointment. Not a lot of liquid. Good luck. People

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<v Speaker 1>worry about bond e t f s blowing up. What

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<v Speaker 1>they should be worried about is in a bond market crisis,

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<v Speaker 1>corporate bond mutual funds blowing up and having real issues.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that that could happen. So I have to

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<v Speaker 1>ask the obvious question. E t f s were the

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<v Speaker 1>hottest area in the markets what made you decide to

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<v Speaker 1>say I'm gonna I'm gonna leave this behind and make

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<v Speaker 1>a leap into the craziness that is crypto because you

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<v Speaker 1>jumped into it right in the middle of the Mayhem. Yeah. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>although although it was the plan to jump into it

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<v Speaker 1>started earlier than that, But that's absolutely true. I would

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<v Speaker 1>say there are three things, Um, you know, when I

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<v Speaker 1>got into E t F s UH, they weren't well

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<v Speaker 1>understood UH. And they weren't widely adopted, and they were

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<v Speaker 1>still a new and emerging industry. And the only skill

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<v Speaker 1>I have, to the extent I have a skill, is

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<v Speaker 1>the ability to explain complex things in a simple way. UH.

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<v Speaker 1>And I felt like a lot of what I wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to do in E t F S had been accomplished. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>I had helped create the first e t F rating system,

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<v Speaker 1>I'd have to create the first et F classification system. UH.

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<v Speaker 1>I had done some small part to move ETFs into

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<v Speaker 1>the mainstream, and now they are the dominant UH way

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<v Speaker 1>people get exposure to the markets. So I felt most

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<v Speaker 1>of what I had done, what I wanted to do,

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<v Speaker 1>had been achieved, and I went looking for the next

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<v Speaker 1>area of UH disruptive opportunity where I thought the quality

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<v Speaker 1>of information was poor, I actually ended up with two.

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<v Speaker 1>I ended up with with crypto and with options strategies,

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<v Speaker 1>both of which I think are potentially very important, and

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<v Speaker 1>both of which are really poorly understood by most investors.

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<v Speaker 1>But this unique crypto opportunity to be involved in the

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<v Speaker 1>first crypto index fund appealed to my inner indexing nerd.

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<v Speaker 1>So is there are there are you seeing parallels between

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<v Speaker 1>how crypto is being perceived by the investing public and

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<v Speaker 1>e T F And said, do you remember when people

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<v Speaker 1>talked about e t f s as weapons of mass destruction? Sure?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you remember when people uh wouldn't didn't think e

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<v Speaker 1>t s would ever? I'm out too much. I think

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<v Speaker 1>they were the I Shares franchise was sold for a

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<v Speaker 1>dollar from Morgan Stanley to b G. I right, it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's um Uh, it's nice, Yeah exactly. I think someone

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<v Speaker 1>called the Louisiana purchase of Yeah. I hope someone still

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<v Speaker 1>has that dollar the wall somewhere. And but these were

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<v Speaker 1>not uh people didn't think e t s would amount

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<v Speaker 1>too much? Right, They were a last ditch effort to

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<v Speaker 1>save the AMMAX and create trading volume. There people didn't

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<v Speaker 1>realize how good they were. And the same thing as

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<v Speaker 1>crypto people are reflexively dismissive of crypto. H most people

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<v Speaker 1>have given it about two and a half minutes of thought.

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<v Speaker 1>If you give it two and a half minutes of thought,

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<v Speaker 1>you think it's fairy unicorn money on the internet. And

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<v Speaker 1>it takes it takes hours and days of really analyzing

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<v Speaker 1>it to see where it might and may have value.

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<v Speaker 1>So I see a lot of parallels so to me,

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<v Speaker 1>and I know this is almost a cliche at this point.

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<v Speaker 1>Blockchain is so obviously useful in so many applications that

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<v Speaker 1>we've only begun to think about. It's that the bitcoins

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<v Speaker 1>and the ethereums and go down. There's hundreds of coins.

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<v Speaker 1>It seems to be that there's a lot of speculative

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<v Speaker 1>excess in the space. And I think that's what makes

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<v Speaker 1>it so easy for people to you know, just yeah, okay, bitcoin, bitcoin,

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin is the next you know, dot com. Uh, And

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<v Speaker 1>it's the parallels of they're also I think those parallels

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<v Speaker 1>are accurate. Uh. I think it is the next dot com.

0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:33.520
<v Speaker 1>But remember, um, the dot com bubble created uh pets

0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:37.400
<v Speaker 1>dot com. But it also created Amazon. So I think

0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:40.960
<v Speaker 1>there are two thousand cryptocurrencies out there of them are

0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:43.880
<v Speaker 1>useless and we'll die a painful death. The sooner that happens,

0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:46.959
<v Speaker 1>the better. There's also a lot of bad activity, bubble

0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.680
<v Speaker 1>related activity that's getting cleared up. But from those ashes,

0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:54.480
<v Speaker 1>if you call them ashes, I mean cryptos up over

0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:57.760
<v Speaker 1>the last two years, that's ashes. They're nice ashes. But

0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:00.319
<v Speaker 1>from those ashes, I think will emerge import and things,

0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:03.920
<v Speaker 1>just like from the dot com ashes emerge Amazon, Google, Facebook,

0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:06.760
<v Speaker 1>et cetera. No no doubt about that. I'm gonna throw

0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:09.640
<v Speaker 1>a quote at you, and I want you to explain it.

0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:13.760
<v Speaker 1>You you said, you think, um, we need crypto to

0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:20.079
<v Speaker 1>cut out the rent seeking middleman that creates attacks on society.

0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:22.839
<v Speaker 1>Now we're all familiar with rentiers, or at least we

0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:27.080
<v Speaker 1>should be, but give us a little a little details.

0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:29.199
<v Speaker 1>So crypto is the first time we've been able to

0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:32.640
<v Speaker 1>engage in financial transactions between people who don't know each

0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:35.920
<v Speaker 1>other without someone in the middle to verify those transactions.

0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:39.679
<v Speaker 1>That's all that blockchain technology does. It allows you to

0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:44.040
<v Speaker 1>replace someone in the middle verifying transactions like visa or

0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:47.319
<v Speaker 1>like your bank and your friends bank with software that

0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:51.280
<v Speaker 1>does it automatically. And for free UH and so so

0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:55.439
<v Speaker 1>much of the financial industry UH is at some level

0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:59.559
<v Speaker 1>a middleman, like an escrow agent that verifies trust acrosses

0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:03.120
<v Speaker 1>transact and crypto has shown that you don't need that,

0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:06.200
<v Speaker 1>and that's a big deal. There's a huge deal. There's

0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:09.439
<v Speaker 1>a huge deal. Now we're miles away, we're years away.

0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:12.720
<v Speaker 1>It's an early stage technology. We're years away. But already

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 1>you can go to IBM and you can wire money

0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:18.559
<v Speaker 1>using a crypto asset internationally for much cheaper than you

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:21.160
<v Speaker 1>can send it through a traditional banking system. So it

0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:23.760
<v Speaker 1>is going to get here, but it is early, quite

0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.800
<v Speaker 1>quite fascinating. So let's talk about some real world applications

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:31.720
<v Speaker 1>for UM. I think we want to separate the coins

0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:35.360
<v Speaker 1>from the underlying software from blockchain and that technology. But

0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:39.200
<v Speaker 1>you're focusing on the entire value chain from start to finish.

0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:42.680
<v Speaker 1>So so let's start with blockchain a little bit. Sure, UM,

0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:46.400
<v Speaker 1>what are some of the near future, not fifty years

0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:50.040
<v Speaker 1>future applications of blockchains? Yeah, for what's worth, I'm way

0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:53.240
<v Speaker 1>more bullish on crypto assets than I am on blockchain. Really,

0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:55.520
<v Speaker 1>that's the opposite of what so many people. It's almost

0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:58.840
<v Speaker 1>a cliche to say, yeah, I'm skeptical about bitcoin, but

0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:02.040
<v Speaker 1>this blockchain is is if you remember the early days

0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:04.320
<v Speaker 1>of the Internet, the really early days when there were

0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:06.480
<v Speaker 1>books and you look up a website and type it in,

0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:11.000
<v Speaker 1>everyone was really excited about corporate intranets. They're like, oh,

0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:13.120
<v Speaker 1>it would be great to send files to Joe and

0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:18.600
<v Speaker 1>accounting without having to walk over people thought exactly no,

0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.160
<v Speaker 1>but people thought corporate internets were the thing, the thing.

0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:25.640
<v Speaker 1>The The analogy between an open internet, which people are like,

0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.320
<v Speaker 1>no one will trust that. Uh, it's the same between

0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:33.480
<v Speaker 1>private block chains and public blockchains. Public block chains that

0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:37.000
<v Speaker 1>are open and accessible by anyone need a crypto asset

0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:40.320
<v Speaker 1>to function, and I think over the long term, public, open,

0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:45.280
<v Speaker 1>accessible UH technologies tend to win. Now, private block chains

0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:49.480
<v Speaker 1>are important. I think they could revolutionized settlement. One of

0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:52.520
<v Speaker 1>the things black chain does really well is settled transactions

0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:56.000
<v Speaker 1>much faster. I think they could. Uh. They can memorials,

0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:59.280
<v Speaker 1>morales data. I think they let you trace back transactions.

0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:02.360
<v Speaker 1>But I think they are actually modest improvements uh. And

0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:06.240
<v Speaker 1>I think the massive improvement is this displacement of a

0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:10.240
<v Speaker 1>trusted mentalman that public box chains allow. Huh. So one

0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:13.160
<v Speaker 1>of one of my favorite examples is during the financial crisis,

0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:18.280
<v Speaker 1>when we were securitizing mortgages by the millions, slicing and

0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:21.120
<v Speaker 1>dicing them and then resecuritizing them and then selling them.

0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:26.840
<v Speaker 1>That undoing that Gordian not became almost impossible, and banks

0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:30.920
<v Speaker 1>ended up losing track of which bank owned which mortgage

0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:35.400
<v Speaker 1>that went to which house. And there were actual stories

0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:39.680
<v Speaker 1>of something that should be illegal impossibility, people without a

0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:43.280
<v Speaker 1>mortgage going on vacation and coming home to find that

0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 1>they were foreclosed on. All their stuff is out in

0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:49.480
<v Speaker 1>the street, there's an armed sign on their door. How

0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:51.720
<v Speaker 1>has I foreclosed on? I bought this house for cash

0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:55.200
<v Speaker 1>that that should be impossible, and then banks foreclosing that

0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:59.880
<v Speaker 1>didn't own the mortgage, foreclosing on somebody. And the example

0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.840
<v Speaker 1>I like to use is if blockchain was used as

0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:07.000
<v Speaker 1>a methodology to track where each of those mortgages went,

0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:11.440
<v Speaker 1>it wouldn't have been that same impossible to untangle mess.

0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:15.520
<v Speaker 1>You could have traced exactly who owned which laggage and

0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.840
<v Speaker 1>who own which property. As a fail safe, there would

0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:21.960
<v Speaker 1>be no headaches at all. It's it's it's it's amazing,

0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:25.000
<v Speaker 1>and it's amazing that it exists. We all buy something

0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:28.639
<v Speaker 1>called title insurance UH to guard against the risk that somehow,

0:17:28.720 --> 0:17:31.320
<v Speaker 1>this this most important asset we've ever bought, it is

0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:34.760
<v Speaker 1>not actually ours. UM. It is incredible that that still

0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.119
<v Speaker 1>exists in today's society. I think that example is a

0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:39.600
<v Speaker 1>great one UH, and there are many like that. So

0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:44.720
<v Speaker 1>let's talk about you're still chairman of inside ETFs. Why

0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:48.679
<v Speaker 1>did you decide to keep that role. I still love ETFs,

0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:50.560
<v Speaker 1>and I still think the E t F industry is

0:17:50.600 --> 0:17:53.479
<v Speaker 1>evolving rapidly, and I still think there are a lot

0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:55.920
<v Speaker 1>of things that people need to learn, particularly as we

0:17:56.760 --> 0:17:59.479
<v Speaker 1>enter a different cycle in the market. So the ability

0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:01.960
<v Speaker 1>to still influence that conference was really appealing. I like

0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:04.119
<v Speaker 1>to keep my hand in. I'm also on the board

0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:06.399
<v Speaker 1>of a small et F issuer UM, so I like

0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:08.800
<v Speaker 1>to stay involved in the E t F space because

0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:11.399
<v Speaker 1>I still think we have miles to go there. So

0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:14.320
<v Speaker 1>I speak at a lot of events and conferences, and

0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:16.800
<v Speaker 1>every now and then there's a couple of you know,

0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:20.359
<v Speaker 1>there's a good name or two that speak your conference

0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:25.320
<v Speaker 1>held in Florida in February year. It's mind blowing the

0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:29.200
<v Speaker 1>list of names that show up. So last year I

0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:32.639
<v Speaker 1>got to interview Serena Williams as a as a favor

0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:35.840
<v Speaker 1>to you, so I'll call I'll be calling back, uh

0:18:36.359 --> 0:18:39.720
<v Speaker 1>that favor. But before I interviewed Serena Williams, I'm in

0:18:39.760 --> 0:18:44.080
<v Speaker 1>the audience watching Quincy Jones. And then after I'm done

0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:46.320
<v Speaker 1>with that interview, I went back into the audience and

0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:50.040
<v Speaker 1>watched was it a General McCrystal. So, I mean it

0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:53.720
<v Speaker 1>was just like, and this year you have Michael Lewis,

0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:58.639
<v Speaker 1>while'll be interviewing in February, Paul Tutor, Jones, Joe Montana.

0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:01.439
<v Speaker 1>I mean you got s. Don't mess around, Bob Schiller.

0:19:02.040 --> 0:19:04.280
<v Speaker 1>Uh yeah, we don't mess around. Well we you know,

0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:06.639
<v Speaker 1>one of the great things about running a conference company

0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:09.760
<v Speaker 1>is that you get to indulge all your intellectual interests.

0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:12.080
<v Speaker 1>So I love Michael Lewis, So why don't we want

0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:15.199
<v Speaker 1>to have him there? Right? We love I love sports,

0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:17.919
<v Speaker 1>so you can get football giants there. You had Alex

0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:21.320
<v Speaker 1>Rodriguez the year I was one of the keynote presenters,

0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:23.440
<v Speaker 1>and I wish I would have hung around. He was great,

0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:26.800
<v Speaker 1>like I heard and I and how you find him?

0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:29.120
<v Speaker 1>I read a great article where he reflected on sort

0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:30.920
<v Speaker 1>of the challenges that he had faced. I thought he

0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:34.560
<v Speaker 1>would be an interesting person to listen to. It's four days,

0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:37.640
<v Speaker 1>and so you can't do four days of creation, redemption

0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:40.520
<v Speaker 1>and emerging market debt. You need to give people a

0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:44.120
<v Speaker 1>chance to to reflect and think about other things. And Uh, yeah,

0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:46.480
<v Speaker 1>we're really excited. I think having Schiller there this year,

0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:50.399
<v Speaker 1>at this time in the market is really timely. Uh

0:19:50.480 --> 0:19:53.520
<v Speaker 1>and looking forward to that. Yeah, he's terrific. The anybody

0:19:53.600 --> 0:19:56.920
<v Speaker 1>wants to look up the agenda, you just google inside

0:19:56.960 --> 0:20:00.880
<v Speaker 1>et F Conference Florida and feb worry and it will

0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:04.240
<v Speaker 1>show up. Um. It's always a great time. So the

0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:06.159
<v Speaker 1>next question I have to ask is what do you

0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:10.399
<v Speaker 1>hope to accomplish with this giant event? And and I

0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:13.439
<v Speaker 1>don't know if I've I've tied this up correctly for people.

0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:17.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm not just promoting an event. I don't want people

0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:19.520
<v Speaker 1>to think that I go to a ton of events.

0:20:20.240 --> 0:20:24.000
<v Speaker 1>This and SALT. I mean, these are the two biggest

0:20:24.119 --> 0:20:27.400
<v Speaker 1>conferences of the year. These are giant, two thousand, three

0:20:27.480 --> 0:20:31.200
<v Speaker 1>thousand people events. So SALT in Vegas, the last time

0:20:31.200 --> 0:20:35.960
<v Speaker 1>I went there was an amazing that had hedge fund

0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:38.480
<v Speaker 1>managers there and I got to run around and say

0:20:38.680 --> 0:20:42.160
<v Speaker 1>under perform I got around, I wasn't the most popular

0:20:42.200 --> 0:20:46.240
<v Speaker 1>there guy there, although that was yeah, that's true and

0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:50.359
<v Speaker 1>um And then the first time I I went to

0:20:50.560 --> 0:20:53.440
<v Speaker 1>this event, I was kind of blown away by how

0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:57.080
<v Speaker 1>giant it actually was, and not just big for the

0:20:57.119 --> 0:21:00.400
<v Speaker 1>sake of big big with really big names and really

0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:05.720
<v Speaker 1>interesting things. What do you hope to accomplish with this event? Yeah? So,

0:21:05.960 --> 0:21:08.760
<v Speaker 1>so the event is focused primarily on financial advisors. Into

0:21:08.880 --> 0:21:11.200
<v Speaker 1>my mind, it's a success if the people who come

0:21:11.280 --> 0:21:13.280
<v Speaker 1>and take three days out of their lives to attend

0:21:13.320 --> 0:21:16.200
<v Speaker 1>that away from their families, find a way to sustain

0:21:16.320 --> 0:21:19.000
<v Speaker 1>or grow their business. And so to do that, I

0:21:19.119 --> 0:21:21.440
<v Speaker 1>want them to learn at this particular year's event a

0:21:21.560 --> 0:21:24.480
<v Speaker 1>few things. I want them to think deeply about where

0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:26.960
<v Speaker 1>we are in the economic cycle and what that means

0:21:27.040 --> 0:21:29.920
<v Speaker 1>for clients and what that means for their bond holdings, etcetera.

0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:35.440
<v Speaker 1>I want them to uh to think deeply about these

0:21:35.600 --> 0:21:38.080
<v Speaker 1>new areas of the market that are opening up, not

0:21:38.200 --> 0:21:40.760
<v Speaker 1>just crypto, which we talked about UM, but some of

0:21:40.840 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 1>the thematic ETFs and whether those are performance chasing or

0:21:43.920 --> 0:21:46.320
<v Speaker 1>valuable and interesting. And then one thing we try to

0:21:46.400 --> 0:21:49.160
<v Speaker 1>do a little bit is asked them to think five

0:21:49.280 --> 0:21:52.359
<v Speaker 1>years ahead. I think the financial advisory business is going

0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:56.200
<v Speaker 1>to be fundamentally transformed in the next five years. I

0:21:56.280 --> 0:21:58.800
<v Speaker 1>think we're on the cusp of an era of mass

0:21:59.119 --> 0:22:03.320
<v Speaker 1>customization for client exposures. Uh. And just like we talked

0:22:03.320 --> 0:22:06.040
<v Speaker 1>about robo advisors five years ago when no one cared,

0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:11.159
<v Speaker 1>I think getting people to think about mass customization, personalized indexing,

0:22:11.800 --> 0:22:14.200
<v Speaker 1>E s G overlays now will be helpful to their

0:22:14.240 --> 0:22:17.600
<v Speaker 1>business in the years ahead. So uh, that's those are

0:22:17.680 --> 0:22:19.160
<v Speaker 1>some of the things I want them to take away.

0:22:19.920 --> 0:22:22.119
<v Speaker 1>So who attends these events? Is it just our I

0:22:22.320 --> 0:22:24.880
<v Speaker 1>a s Is it? Because when I was there last year,

0:22:25.040 --> 0:22:27.200
<v Speaker 1>I saw a lot of et F managers. I saw

0:22:27.240 --> 0:22:30.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of active managers. I saw a bunch of

0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:34.640
<v Speaker 1>economists and strategists. Who's primarily in the audience? Yeah, I think.

0:22:34.760 --> 0:22:37.760
<v Speaker 1>I think everyone from the traditional asset management industry is there.

0:22:37.840 --> 0:22:40.320
<v Speaker 1>So every e t F issuhe or every index provider,

0:22:40.440 --> 0:22:44.399
<v Speaker 1>all the aps and market makers, also all the mutual

0:22:44.480 --> 0:22:46.960
<v Speaker 1>fund managers who must be thinking about the E t

0:22:47.080 --> 0:22:49.520
<v Speaker 1>F space are there to see and learn. And on

0:22:49.640 --> 0:22:52.399
<v Speaker 1>the flip side, there are really two classes of investors. Uh,

0:22:52.560 --> 0:22:55.200
<v Speaker 1>So they're they're a large number of financial advisors, and

0:22:55.280 --> 0:22:58.240
<v Speaker 1>there's a rising number of institutional investors because they're increasingly

0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:00.159
<v Speaker 1>using e t F s at the core or of

0:23:00.200 --> 0:23:02.960
<v Speaker 1>their portfolio and not just on the edges, so that

0:23:03.119 --> 0:23:06.159
<v Speaker 1>that mix comes together. So I recall last year you

0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:10.439
<v Speaker 1>had Tim Buckley the new CEO of Vanguard. There were

0:23:10.520 --> 0:23:13.600
<v Speaker 1>a number of other you know, black Rock, State Street,

0:23:13.680 --> 0:23:16.280
<v Speaker 1>Wisdom Tree. It was hard to walk around and not

0:23:16.440 --> 0:23:22.120
<v Speaker 1>run into some pretty substantial entities. Have you ever sat

0:23:22.200 --> 0:23:26.120
<v Speaker 1>back and calculated the total assets under management in that room?

0:23:26.840 --> 0:23:29.200
<v Speaker 1>I have not. That's a good question. I'm gonna I'm

0:23:29.240 --> 0:23:31.560
<v Speaker 1>gonna guess it somewhere, and there'll be a lot of

0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:34.680
<v Speaker 1>overlap because when you have the head of black Rock

0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:39.520
<v Speaker 1>in the head of Vanguard up front, and then two

0:23:39.640 --> 0:23:42.840
<v Speaker 1>thirds of the audience owns black Rock and Vanguard, there's

0:23:42.840 --> 0:23:45.120
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of double counting. But I gotta think

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:48.840
<v Speaker 1>there's like ten trillion dollars in that board room. There's

0:23:48.840 --> 0:23:50.440
<v Speaker 1>a huge amount of volume. There's a thing called the

0:23:50.480 --> 0:23:53.480
<v Speaker 1>inside et effect, which E t F volumes tend to

0:23:53.520 --> 0:23:56.520
<v Speaker 1>be down for the three days. Is that is that

0:23:56.600 --> 0:23:58.840
<v Speaker 1>a fact that used at least used to be a fact.

0:23:58.960 --> 0:24:00.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. If it continues to be a fact,

0:24:00.720 --> 0:24:03.720
<v Speaker 1>so many people from the E t F industry are

0:24:03.880 --> 0:24:07.320
<v Speaker 1>in Florida for this event, that trading volume falls, Yes

0:24:07.440 --> 0:24:12.080
<v Speaker 1>it's modest, but yes that is at That's hilarious and

0:24:12.320 --> 0:24:14.840
<v Speaker 1>I just have to I just have to give my

0:24:15.040 --> 0:24:19.080
<v Speaker 1>disclosures about this UM because we're all about transparency and

0:24:19.160 --> 0:24:22.560
<v Speaker 1>full disclosure. So I have been a paid speaker at

0:24:22.640 --> 0:24:25.760
<v Speaker 1>the Inside e t F conference and the Inside E

0:24:25.880 --> 0:24:29.200
<v Speaker 1>t F firm is co sponsoring a conference in T

0:24:29.600 --> 0:24:33.800
<v Speaker 1>nineteen in in September in Arizona with my firm UM

0:24:34.119 --> 0:24:37.679
<v Speaker 1>r W M or Heals Wealth Management UM called wealth Stack.

0:24:38.280 --> 0:24:41.359
<v Speaker 1>And I would rather disclose that than have somebody after

0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:43.960
<v Speaker 1>the facts say hey, why don't you tell us about

0:24:44.040 --> 0:24:48.200
<v Speaker 1>that UM. Two years ago I interviewed Serena Williams, which

0:24:48.359 --> 0:24:52.159
<v Speaker 1>was the highlight of of my interview career as a

0:24:52.240 --> 0:24:55.359
<v Speaker 1>tennis player, and we we played a couple of sets.

0:24:55.480 --> 0:24:58.399
<v Speaker 1>She won six two, six four. It was closer than

0:24:59.680 --> 0:25:03.080
<v Speaker 1>she was six months pregnant. Um. Actually this was right

0:25:03.160 --> 0:25:06.040
<v Speaker 1>after she had a baby. And what was really interesting

0:25:06.240 --> 0:25:11.359
<v Speaker 1>is what I'm fascinated by the non finance people that

0:25:11.520 --> 0:25:13.560
<v Speaker 1>speak at events like this, and you guys do a

0:25:13.600 --> 0:25:19.399
<v Speaker 1>really good job programming. This is how many parallel learning

0:25:19.440 --> 0:25:26.080
<v Speaker 1>experiences there are between non finance related businesses and whether

0:25:26.160 --> 0:25:30.400
<v Speaker 1>it's the military or sports music. Uh, there's some really

0:25:30.600 --> 0:25:36.120
<v Speaker 1>fascinating things to learn about process over outcome, about our

0:25:36.160 --> 0:25:39.280
<v Speaker 1>own errors and biases, and how we can do better

0:25:39.520 --> 0:25:42.320
<v Speaker 1>even when we make mistakes, how we can learn from them. Um,

0:25:42.600 --> 0:25:45.520
<v Speaker 1>that sort of that sort of stuff is always really

0:25:46.040 --> 0:25:48.600
<v Speaker 1>really fascinating. Who are you really looking forward to seeing

0:25:48.680 --> 0:25:51.639
<v Speaker 1>speak this year? Yeah, I'm really looking for I mentioned

0:25:51.680 --> 0:25:53.919
<v Speaker 1>this earlier. I'm really looking forward to chill Or speaking.

0:25:55.960 --> 0:25:59.160
<v Speaker 1>He's you've seen him before, I've seen him before. He's fantastic.

0:25:59.280 --> 0:26:02.720
<v Speaker 1>He's fantastic again. And he seems honest and organic. He's

0:26:02.760 --> 0:26:05.840
<v Speaker 1>totally organic, which is which is unique. Not everyone is

0:26:05.880 --> 0:26:09.120
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people speak their book. Uh, and that's

0:26:09.160 --> 0:26:12.520
<v Speaker 1>not true. I'm really excited about Michael Lewis. We've tried

0:26:12.560 --> 0:26:14.840
<v Speaker 1>to get him many years and the schedule has not

0:26:14.920 --> 0:26:18.360
<v Speaker 1>worked out. He's one of my favorite authors. I see

0:26:18.440 --> 0:26:21.280
<v Speaker 1>him around town in Berkeley and always want to like

0:26:21.400 --> 0:26:23.399
<v Speaker 1>stalk him and ask him to come. Now you have

0:26:23.480 --> 0:26:26.520
<v Speaker 1>an excuse. Now he's there, So I'm assuming you read

0:26:26.600 --> 0:26:29.800
<v Speaker 1>The Undoing Project which is his previous book. The Fifth

0:26:29.880 --> 0:26:31.920
<v Speaker 1>Column is the new one. I haven't read the new one,

0:26:33.119 --> 0:26:35.680
<v Speaker 1>so I read it. We went down to Florida over

0:26:35.720 --> 0:26:38.880
<v Speaker 1>the holidays. I read it on the plane and it's

0:26:39.440 --> 0:26:43.440
<v Speaker 1>it's great, but it's infuriated, yea, because it's just why

0:26:43.520 --> 0:26:45.720
<v Speaker 1>are they making this mistake? You know what it is?

0:26:45.840 --> 0:26:49.600
<v Speaker 1>The big short is infuriating, but you feel like the

0:26:49.760 --> 0:26:53.920
<v Speaker 1>people who deserve to some of the people who deserves

0:26:54.040 --> 0:26:59.200
<v Speaker 1>get punished. In the Fifth Column. There is no justice.

0:26:59.840 --> 0:27:03.120
<v Speaker 1>It's like, wait, people are doing what No, that's wrong.

0:27:03.240 --> 0:27:06.800
<v Speaker 1>It's just bad. Yeah, it's it's uh, it's quite fascinating.

0:27:07.040 --> 0:27:11.240
<v Speaker 1>And I read that in anticipation of this interview were

0:27:11.320 --> 0:27:13.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm looking forward to hearing you chat with him. Normally

0:27:13.640 --> 0:27:17.119
<v Speaker 1>I would have held that book for my like February

0:27:17.240 --> 0:27:21.480
<v Speaker 1>March vacation. That's speech reading to me, um, But I'm like, no, no,

0:27:21.600 --> 0:27:23.520
<v Speaker 1>I got a prep and I like to I like

0:27:23.680 --> 0:27:26.840
<v Speaker 1>to read like a month in advance and then kind

0:27:26.880 --> 0:27:29.399
<v Speaker 1>of go through my notes a week beforehand and it

0:27:29.520 --> 0:27:31.960
<v Speaker 1>all comes back, but it's had time to percolate it.

0:27:32.760 --> 0:27:35.080
<v Speaker 1>So Schiller. By the way, Schiller a prior guest, Michael

0:27:35.119 --> 0:27:38.119
<v Speaker 1>Lewis prior guest. Schiller is amazing. You're gonna have a

0:27:38.160 --> 0:27:41.400
<v Speaker 1>great I think he's not doing an interview, he's just presenting.

0:27:41.600 --> 0:27:45.960
<v Speaker 1>He's just presenting his outlook. He's you know, professors at Yale,

0:27:46.119 --> 0:27:50.480
<v Speaker 1>for some reason, have a way to demand a stage

0:27:50.960 --> 0:27:53.359
<v Speaker 1>and an audience. I think people will will love him.

0:27:53.560 --> 0:27:55.800
<v Speaker 1>And he doesn't go too far out into the weeds,

0:27:56.520 --> 0:27:59.479
<v Speaker 1>even though he could at any time he wants to. Definitely,

0:28:00.480 --> 0:28:03.480
<v Speaker 1>you're you're certainly. I assume you're familiar with his friendship

0:28:03.760 --> 0:28:06.960
<v Speaker 1>with Jeremy c which is hilarious. It is Larry and

0:28:07.040 --> 0:28:10.000
<v Speaker 1>Jeremy Siegel is magic on stage. Yeah. I love seeing

0:28:10.080 --> 0:28:12.359
<v Speaker 1>Jeremy Siegel before he goes on stage, where there was

0:28:12.400 --> 0:28:16.399
<v Speaker 1>the old professor sort of me into him, and then

0:28:16.440 --> 0:28:19.520
<v Speaker 1>he goes on stage and he's just supernova. It's amazing

0:28:19.640 --> 0:28:23.600
<v Speaker 1>to watch him. Fantastic. So when he was on the show,

0:28:23.800 --> 0:28:27.080
<v Speaker 1>he was sitting where you were sitting. And for whatever,

0:28:27.400 --> 0:28:30.520
<v Speaker 1>he's in the University of Pennsylvania, so they take the

0:28:30.600 --> 0:28:32.680
<v Speaker 1>train in. They must have him teed up for a

0:28:32.800 --> 0:28:35.840
<v Speaker 1>dozen things. I'm interviewing him towards the end of the day,

0:28:35.920 --> 0:28:39.080
<v Speaker 1>it's like five o'clock and so It's a long day

0:28:39.160 --> 0:28:41.840
<v Speaker 1>for anybody, and for someone who's his age run around,

0:28:42.240 --> 0:28:44.960
<v Speaker 1>it's a long day. And he's sitting there and I

0:28:45.080 --> 0:28:48.000
<v Speaker 1>want to say, in like the last thirty minutes of

0:28:48.080 --> 0:28:52.200
<v Speaker 1>two hours, he just starts swiveling with the chair and

0:28:52.320 --> 0:28:55.200
<v Speaker 1>then before you know it, he just starts doing this.

0:28:56.480 --> 0:28:59.560
<v Speaker 1>And I'm sitting there watching this, and you could literally

0:28:59.760 --> 0:29:02.880
<v Speaker 1>he or him. You could hear the Doppler effected he

0:29:03.040 --> 0:29:07.960
<v Speaker 1>as he says of a long run. It was absolutely

0:29:08.040 --> 0:29:10.640
<v Speaker 1>one of the things that and I just had like

0:29:10.800 --> 0:29:14.080
<v Speaker 1>a grin on my face that you it must have

0:29:14.160 --> 0:29:18.080
<v Speaker 1>taken a week for me to stop laughing. And then

0:29:18.600 --> 0:29:22.760
<v Speaker 1>the amazing thing is he is consistently picked as um

0:29:23.280 --> 0:29:27.320
<v Speaker 1>everybody's favorite professor, of course, and I always I always

0:29:27.360 --> 0:29:30.640
<v Speaker 1>wondered why, and then you realize he's like this impish child,

0:29:31.200 --> 0:29:38.360
<v Speaker 1>this delightful, this delightful leprechaun discussing um long term expected

0:29:38.440 --> 0:29:42.400
<v Speaker 1>returns of equities. Oh, of course, the Wharton students love him.

0:29:42.440 --> 0:29:46.040
<v Speaker 1>He's just like endlessly entertained and the two of them

0:29:46.320 --> 0:29:50.560
<v Speaker 1>couldn't be more different personalities. It's so great. Yeah, no,

0:29:50.680 --> 0:29:54.320
<v Speaker 1>it really is great. I have to mention a quote

0:29:54.360 --> 0:29:57.680
<v Speaker 1>of yours that I'm tickled by and get get a response.

0:29:58.040 --> 0:30:02.120
<v Speaker 1>So for a long time I been saying that all

0:30:02.200 --> 0:30:05.080
<v Speaker 1>the crypto heads are the new gold bugs. But but

0:30:05.320 --> 0:30:09.760
<v Speaker 1>you phrased it a little differently. You said bitcoin was

0:30:09.880 --> 0:30:13.960
<v Speaker 1>the new millennial gold discussed. Yeah, well, it's definitely true.

0:30:14.440 --> 0:30:18.080
<v Speaker 1>Every generation has an asset that they love or a

0:30:18.440 --> 0:30:21.600
<v Speaker 1>way of getting exposure that they love. The greatest generation

0:30:21.720 --> 0:30:25.080
<v Speaker 1>loved gold. Then people loved active mutual funds, gen X

0:30:25.160 --> 0:30:29.880
<v Speaker 1>loved hedge funds. Millennials love crypto. If you ask millennials

0:30:30.240 --> 0:30:33.600
<v Speaker 1>which would they rather hold gold or or bitcoin, it's

0:30:33.640 --> 0:30:36.200
<v Speaker 1>bitcoined by a mile. Which would they rather hold equities

0:30:36.280 --> 0:30:39.120
<v Speaker 1>or bitcoin? It's bitcoin by a mile. And I would

0:30:39.160 --> 0:30:42.680
<v Speaker 1>say there are a lot of analogies between bitcoin and gold.

0:30:42.760 --> 0:30:47.440
<v Speaker 1>They're both non sovereign stores of value. Uh, but bitcoin

0:30:47.560 --> 0:30:50.320
<v Speaker 1>is much more useful in gold. It's it's much more

0:30:50.400 --> 0:30:52.959
<v Speaker 1>easily divisible. It can be spent, it can be stored,

0:30:53.000 --> 0:30:55.880
<v Speaker 1>it's it's it can be transferred easily. Um. So it

0:30:56.080 --> 0:30:59.680
<v Speaker 1>is it's like an upgraded version of gold. I think

0:30:59.720 --> 0:31:02.080
<v Speaker 1>I get liquid with gold faster than I could get

0:31:02.120 --> 0:31:05.400
<v Speaker 1>liquid with bitcoin in size, and I certainly could trade

0:31:05.480 --> 0:31:08.440
<v Speaker 1>gold for more things than I could for bitcoin right now.

0:31:08.680 --> 0:31:12.440
<v Speaker 1>That's definitely true. That is definitely true any early stage technology. Uh,

0:31:12.880 --> 0:31:14.800
<v Speaker 1>it takes a while to get up the spectrum. I'm

0:31:14.800 --> 0:31:17.280
<v Speaker 1>not sure you're right about the liquidity in size. It

0:31:17.320 --> 0:31:19.840
<v Speaker 1>depends on You can get liquid and bitcoin at very

0:31:19.920 --> 0:31:24.080
<v Speaker 1>reasonable sizes very quickly. Certainly golds are deeper million in bitcoin.

0:31:24.160 --> 0:31:26.280
<v Speaker 1>I I didn't know you were that well off, But

0:31:26.440 --> 0:31:29.600
<v Speaker 1>that's that's what this is for a friend friend, so

0:31:29.760 --> 0:31:31.080
<v Speaker 1>he wants to know how he can get the hell

0:31:31.120 --> 0:31:33.720
<v Speaker 1>out of this, and uh, there are there are some

0:31:33.880 --> 0:31:37.560
<v Speaker 1>dollar limitations on the coin. That is true. It is

0:31:37.560 --> 0:31:40.200
<v Speaker 1>an early stage technology. Uh, and I'm not I'm not

0:31:40.440 --> 0:31:43.080
<v Speaker 1>claiming it's more established than gold. You know, if you

0:31:43.120 --> 0:31:44.920
<v Speaker 1>look back at gold when it came off the US

0:31:44.960 --> 0:31:48.440
<v Speaker 1>gold standard, it went through a period of rapidly rising

0:31:48.520 --> 0:31:51.160
<v Speaker 1>prices and massive volatility and a years when it went up,

0:31:51.160 --> 0:31:54.080
<v Speaker 1>a percent years when it went down. We just don't

0:31:54.120 --> 0:31:57.120
<v Speaker 1>remember that. Uh, this is a new sovereign store of value.

0:31:57.160 --> 0:32:00.080
<v Speaker 1>Would expect sort of an asymptotic rise in price, and

0:32:00.160 --> 0:32:04.160
<v Speaker 1>you would expect massive volatility. And if I'm right about bitcoin,

0:32:04.320 --> 0:32:06.840
<v Speaker 1>ten years from now, it will be boring like gold

0:32:06.920 --> 0:32:09.760
<v Speaker 1>to uh, and that's what we're waiting for. That's not

0:32:09.920 --> 0:32:12.000
<v Speaker 1>the first word that comes to mind when I think

0:32:12.000 --> 0:32:14.920
<v Speaker 1>about bitcoin. It's boring. But by the way, people forget

0:32:15.400 --> 0:32:20.600
<v Speaker 1>how many draw downs has Amazon had, Apple had, gees

0:32:20.600 --> 0:32:25.200
<v Speaker 1>in the middle of a major Successful companies go through

0:32:25.280 --> 0:32:27.880
<v Speaker 1>that on a regular basis. We tend not to want

0:32:27.920 --> 0:32:30.120
<v Speaker 1>to think about. That's right. And bitcoin has gone through

0:32:30.240 --> 0:32:33.800
<v Speaker 1>seven six or seven plus draw downs in the past,

0:32:34.320 --> 0:32:35.880
<v Speaker 1>and each of those that set the stage for a

0:32:35.920 --> 0:32:39.440
<v Speaker 1>new rally. Now I'm not saying that will necessarily happen here, um,

0:32:39.680 --> 0:32:43.280
<v Speaker 1>but you know it's down, it's up over the last

0:32:43.320 --> 0:32:47.240
<v Speaker 1>two years. So it depends on your perspective. So let's

0:32:47.280 --> 0:32:50.280
<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit about the index that you guys

0:32:50.320 --> 0:32:53.440
<v Speaker 1>are putting together. You created the index, you're using it

0:32:53.560 --> 0:32:55.680
<v Speaker 1>as a basis for an e t F. You've already

0:32:55.720 --> 0:32:58.560
<v Speaker 1>filed with the SEC. So let's talk a little bit

0:32:58.560 --> 0:33:01.840
<v Speaker 1>about that filing. What you're what do you disclosing that filing,

0:33:01.920 --> 0:33:05.360
<v Speaker 1>and what should someone who's interested in buying an e

0:33:05.520 --> 0:33:09.400
<v Speaker 1>t F that will hold coins an index of coins

0:33:09.480 --> 0:33:12.520
<v Speaker 1>actually look like. Yeah, so, uh, we have filed two

0:33:12.560 --> 0:33:15.800
<v Speaker 1>applications for cryptocurrency e t F S one is a

0:33:15.920 --> 0:33:19.160
<v Speaker 1>index basket that holds the top ten crypto assets and

0:33:19.320 --> 0:33:22.240
<v Speaker 1>one is bitcoin only. So wait a second, I could

0:33:22.320 --> 0:33:25.720
<v Speaker 1>buy bitcoin when this is finally approved through an ETF.

0:33:25.880 --> 0:33:28.880
<v Speaker 1>That would be the hope that if the SEC approves

0:33:28.960 --> 0:33:30.280
<v Speaker 1>the ct F, you will be able to buy it

0:33:30.320 --> 0:33:31.960
<v Speaker 1>through an e t F the same way you buy

0:33:32.120 --> 0:33:36.560
<v Speaker 1>gold through g l D or silver for through SLV. Uh.

0:33:36.840 --> 0:33:39.800
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's the same idea. It's easy exposure in

0:33:39.880 --> 0:33:42.920
<v Speaker 1>a familiar brokerage window to something you otherwise have to

0:33:42.960 --> 0:33:46.040
<v Speaker 1>buy in a different way. And so there have been

0:33:46.120 --> 0:33:49.480
<v Speaker 1>multiple bitcoin ETFs filed. For what it's worth. Uh, we're

0:33:49.560 --> 0:33:52.480
<v Speaker 1>moving forward more aggressively on our end with the bitcoin

0:33:52.600 --> 0:33:56.840
<v Speaker 1>filing than the index filing um. But uh yeah, we're

0:33:56.880 --> 0:33:59.800
<v Speaker 1>we're we're hopeful, uh and optimistic that we can work

0:33:59.840 --> 0:34:02.400
<v Speaker 1>with SEC. They've raised legitimate issues, but we hope we

0:34:02.440 --> 0:34:04.400
<v Speaker 1>can work through it and we'll see. And this isn't

0:34:04.520 --> 0:34:07.200
<v Speaker 1>an i c oh so a lot of these initial

0:34:07.280 --> 0:34:10.960
<v Speaker 1>coin offerings have been played with. Now this is an

0:34:11.000 --> 0:34:16.080
<v Speaker 1>e t F equity trading vehicle that will hold bitcoin.

0:34:16.280 --> 0:34:19.160
<v Speaker 1>That's that's the hope. So now there's been a lot

0:34:19.239 --> 0:34:24.280
<v Speaker 1>of scams not on that, but some of these wallets

0:34:24.360 --> 0:34:29.000
<v Speaker 1>and various coin offerings, and people have been hyping it

0:34:29.120 --> 0:34:31.880
<v Speaker 1>up some A number of celebrities got associated with this

0:34:32.000 --> 0:34:34.680
<v Speaker 1>and got into trouble with your sec You're trying to

0:34:34.760 --> 0:34:40.000
<v Speaker 1>do the most plane vanilla offering you can with bitcoin

0:34:40.120 --> 0:34:43.440
<v Speaker 1>as the underlying asset. That is right. So so a

0:34:43.520 --> 0:34:45.360
<v Speaker 1>lot of those I c O s were scams. I

0:34:45.400 --> 0:34:48.560
<v Speaker 1>think we're illegal, uh, and we'll be will be prosecuted.

0:34:48.560 --> 0:34:50.600
<v Speaker 1>People are going to jail. I think people will are

0:34:50.640 --> 0:34:52.640
<v Speaker 1>going to jail and I think they should uh. And

0:34:52.760 --> 0:34:54.880
<v Speaker 1>it brought out a lot of bad actors in the

0:34:54.920 --> 0:34:58.640
<v Speaker 1>space because there's such massive wealth accumulation. But that doesn't

0:34:58.680 --> 0:35:01.400
<v Speaker 1>mean that there aren't legitimate thing. So right now we

0:35:01.600 --> 0:35:05.360
<v Speaker 1>have crypto index fund that's available for credited investors. We

0:35:05.400 --> 0:35:08.320
<v Speaker 1>have a Bitcoin for one for credited investors. But the

0:35:08.400 --> 0:35:11.000
<v Speaker 1>hope is we can launch an e t F that

0:35:11.080 --> 0:35:14.200
<v Speaker 1>gives that exposure to everyone. It makes it safe, cheap

0:35:14.200 --> 0:35:16.520
<v Speaker 1>and easy to gain exposure to the market. I hope

0:35:16.560 --> 0:35:20.360
<v Speaker 1>you've picked out a nice um security symbols. Oh, the

0:35:20.480 --> 0:35:23.480
<v Speaker 1>ticker ticker choice is a big deal. It really is.

0:35:23.640 --> 0:35:29.120
<v Speaker 1>People don't appreciate Remember move that that exploded and you

0:35:29.480 --> 0:35:32.200
<v Speaker 1>or hack for that matter, h A c K, which

0:35:32.280 --> 0:35:34.040
<v Speaker 1>is now in the midst of litigation. I hope it

0:35:34.080 --> 0:35:38.360
<v Speaker 1>gets resolved sooner rather than later. Um. But uh, having

0:35:38.480 --> 0:35:40.880
<v Speaker 1>and it's been shown even with equities, if you have

0:35:41.000 --> 0:35:43.440
<v Speaker 1>a good ticker symbol, Yeah, it's worth a couple of

0:35:43.520 --> 0:35:46.960
<v Speaker 1>percents in performance over time, And it makes perfect sense.

0:35:47.040 --> 0:35:49.879
<v Speaker 1>It makes behavioral sense. I think it matters a great deal.

0:35:50.040 --> 0:35:51.799
<v Speaker 1>And I can't wait until the day that we get

0:35:51.840 --> 0:35:54.239
<v Speaker 1>to pick and disclose the time. I'm assuming you have

0:35:54.400 --> 0:35:57.080
<v Speaker 1>one reserved than you just can't disclose. You never know.

0:35:58.440 --> 0:36:00.879
<v Speaker 1>So so let's talk a little bit about the methodology

0:36:01.080 --> 0:36:04.720
<v Speaker 1>of the index. Is it simply just the ten biggest

0:36:04.800 --> 0:36:08.000
<v Speaker 1>coins or the ten most liquid coins? How you putting

0:36:08.040 --> 0:36:10.680
<v Speaker 1>that together? So at one level, the indexes for for

0:36:10.800 --> 0:36:14.480
<v Speaker 1>our fund is the ten largest coins. But of course

0:36:14.560 --> 0:36:16.759
<v Speaker 1>everything in crypto, which is why I got interested, is

0:36:16.800 --> 0:36:19.200
<v Speaker 1>more complex than it is in equity. So like you

0:36:19.320 --> 0:36:21.320
<v Speaker 1>and I could say what is the price of IBM,

0:36:21.360 --> 0:36:23.719
<v Speaker 1>and we would say the exact same number. If you

0:36:23.760 --> 0:36:25.640
<v Speaker 1>ask me what the price of bitcoin is, I'd have

0:36:25.719 --> 0:36:28.800
<v Speaker 1>to look at different exchanges merge them together. Um. So

0:36:28.960 --> 0:36:32.120
<v Speaker 1>everything is more difficult, but it is a market capuated

0:36:32.160 --> 0:36:34.879
<v Speaker 1>index of crypto assets. And and let me say why,

0:36:34.880 --> 0:36:38.560
<v Speaker 1>I think that's an interesting strategy. Um, we don't know

0:36:38.800 --> 0:36:41.759
<v Speaker 1>for well, yeah, well we don't know what will happen

0:36:41.800 --> 0:36:45.399
<v Speaker 1>in crypto, right, it's early. These are competing protocols, they're

0:36:45.440 --> 0:36:48.520
<v Speaker 1>each optimized for a different use case. And I'm not

0:36:48.640 --> 0:36:52.120
<v Speaker 1>smart enough to know five years from now whether Bitcoin

0:36:52.280 --> 0:36:55.080
<v Speaker 1>or ethereum, or light coin or man narrow or these

0:36:55.120 --> 0:36:57.400
<v Speaker 1>other assets will be the most important. I just don't know.

0:36:57.920 --> 0:36:59.600
<v Speaker 1>And so the index gives you a simple way to

0:36:59.680 --> 0:37:02.440
<v Speaker 1>make a simple bet, which is, I think crypto will

0:37:02.480 --> 0:37:05.200
<v Speaker 1>be more important in the future than it is today. Uh.

0:37:05.520 --> 0:37:07.120
<v Speaker 1>And if if that's the bet you want to make,

0:37:07.200 --> 0:37:09.200
<v Speaker 1>you want to make a broadly diverse fig. So why

0:37:09.360 --> 0:37:12.279
<v Speaker 1>the top ten and not the top Yeah, there's a

0:37:12.400 --> 0:37:14.600
<v Speaker 1>very big power law on crypto. So the top ten

0:37:14.680 --> 0:37:18.799
<v Speaker 1>captures about in the market, and after that liquidity falls out.

0:37:19.120 --> 0:37:20.759
<v Speaker 1>If you think back to the equity market, in the

0:37:20.800 --> 0:37:23.200
<v Speaker 1>early days of emerging markets, you would only buy large

0:37:23.280 --> 0:37:26.040
<v Speaker 1>caps and then large mid and now you buy everything.

0:37:26.320 --> 0:37:29.040
<v Speaker 1>I think the same thing is true with crypto. Makes sense.

0:37:29.800 --> 0:37:33.160
<v Speaker 1>I know the venture capital world has been very interested

0:37:33.280 --> 0:37:37.880
<v Speaker 1>in everything from um, crypto to blockchain, So what have you.

0:37:38.880 --> 0:37:42.160
<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin has some pretty high profile backers. What do you

0:37:42.239 --> 0:37:45.600
<v Speaker 1>see in the VC space when it comes to cryptocurrency. Yeah,

0:37:45.600 --> 0:37:47.799
<v Speaker 1>a lot of interest and a lot of interest that's

0:37:47.800 --> 0:37:51.200
<v Speaker 1>trickling into the endowment and pension space that's investing into

0:37:51.239 --> 0:37:54.800
<v Speaker 1>crypto through funds like the injurycent Fund or some of

0:37:54.840 --> 0:37:57.239
<v Speaker 1>the other funds. A lot of the firms are trying

0:37:57.280 --> 0:37:59.560
<v Speaker 1>to solve one of two problems. Either they're part of

0:37:59.640 --> 0:38:03.760
<v Speaker 1>a step publishing this institutional ecosystem. Because remember crypto emerged

0:38:03.800 --> 0:38:06.239
<v Speaker 1>as a retail asset. It trades on lightly or non

0:38:06.320 --> 0:38:09.480
<v Speaker 1>regulated exchanges, so you're seeing a lot of investment into

0:38:09.520 --> 0:38:13.200
<v Speaker 1>regulated exchanges like backed, which is from Ice, which is

0:38:13.280 --> 0:38:16.359
<v Speaker 1>launching in Q one. Uh. That's one thing, and then

0:38:16.400 --> 0:38:19.480
<v Speaker 1>the other thing is companies that are improving on the

0:38:19.560 --> 0:38:23.120
<v Speaker 1>underlying technology and the blockchain technology or building applications on

0:38:23.239 --> 0:38:27.320
<v Speaker 1>top of that. UH. And like any VC boom, valuations

0:38:27.320 --> 0:38:30.040
<v Speaker 1>are probably too high. They'll be a pullback, but but

0:38:30.120 --> 0:38:32.680
<v Speaker 1>it's exciting and it means there's a big infusion of

0:38:32.760 --> 0:38:35.120
<v Speaker 1>capital and big infusion of people working on the project.

0:38:35.440 --> 0:38:39.759
<v Speaker 1>You mentioned the pensions and the endowments that have an

0:38:39.840 --> 0:38:43.480
<v Speaker 1>interest in this um, what other institutions are looking at this?

0:38:43.640 --> 0:38:46.799
<v Speaker 1>And and I would have to also bring up Fidelity.

0:38:47.400 --> 0:38:52.720
<v Speaker 1>All companies made a big early UM jump towards crypto.

0:38:52.920 --> 0:38:55.120
<v Speaker 1>Tell us what you know about that? Yeah, Fidelities hiring

0:38:55.200 --> 0:38:57.360
<v Speaker 1>up to a hundred and fifty people to build a

0:38:57.440 --> 0:39:01.160
<v Speaker 1>way for institutional investors to buy crypto and store it

0:39:01.320 --> 0:39:03.520
<v Speaker 1>with a name they trust. Right, one of the greatest

0:39:03.560 --> 0:39:06.080
<v Speaker 1>brand names in the future. You'll ask yourself why Fidelity

0:39:06.120 --> 0:39:08.680
<v Speaker 1>and why haven't I seen black Rock, State Street other

0:39:08.719 --> 0:39:12.360
<v Speaker 1>asset managers. The difference is the Fidelity is a family

0:39:12.400 --> 0:39:16.640
<v Speaker 1>owned firm, privately held, not public, still reputational risk in crypto.

0:39:16.800 --> 0:39:19.280
<v Speaker 1>The other big player in crypto is van Eck, also

0:39:19.400 --> 0:39:22.480
<v Speaker 1>privately held, also a family owned firm. We know, we

0:39:22.560 --> 0:39:24.520
<v Speaker 1>know John, and I don't think that's a surprise. I

0:39:24.640 --> 0:39:27.000
<v Speaker 1>think they're free to do it. Fidelity saw that this

0:39:27.160 --> 0:39:30.520
<v Speaker 1>is important. We know. We had conversations with two thousand

0:39:30.880 --> 0:39:35.240
<v Speaker 1>institutional and financial advisors UH last year. There is dramatic

0:39:35.280 --> 0:39:37.920
<v Speaker 1>interest in crypto. UH. They want good ways to get

0:39:37.920 --> 0:39:41.120
<v Speaker 1>exposure right now. Most of the ways are retail oriented

0:39:41.280 --> 0:39:43.600
<v Speaker 1>and non institutional grade. And so they say on an

0:39:43.600 --> 0:39:46.719
<v Speaker 1>opportunity to be first and they're doing it quite fascinating.

0:39:46.840 --> 0:39:49.480
<v Speaker 1>I read a statistic a couple of months ago that

0:39:49.560 --> 0:39:54.239
<v Speaker 1>I was kind of shocked at. Approximately of all the

0:39:54.400 --> 0:39:59.759
<v Speaker 1>coins ever created have been lost, either there um in

0:40:00.000 --> 0:40:04.400
<v Speaker 1>crypted password access has been lost, or it's physically on

0:40:04.480 --> 0:40:07.879
<v Speaker 1>a drive that was destroyed or some source that. How

0:40:08.200 --> 0:40:10.720
<v Speaker 1>how accurate are those numbers? And if they are accurate,

0:40:11.239 --> 0:40:13.600
<v Speaker 1>how can this ever really be a serious asset class

0:40:13.719 --> 0:40:16.640
<v Speaker 1>If you know, think about all the VCR tapes and

0:40:16.760 --> 0:40:21.879
<v Speaker 1>cassettes people have that essentially technology has orphaned totally. Well,

0:40:22.360 --> 0:40:24.680
<v Speaker 1>you couldn't orphan this because all that's written on that

0:40:24.920 --> 0:40:27.200
<v Speaker 1>is like a fifty letter code. So you could literally

0:40:27.239 --> 0:40:29.080
<v Speaker 1>if you wanted to write it's a piece of paper

0:40:29.160 --> 0:40:31.200
<v Speaker 1>and you would have it. It is true that it's

0:40:31.239 --> 0:40:34.840
<v Speaker 1>a digital bearer instrument, like a bearer bond or like

0:40:34.920 --> 0:40:36.840
<v Speaker 1>a bar of gold, and so if you lose it,

0:40:37.440 --> 0:40:41.600
<v Speaker 1>and what you would lose is that it's lost. Um. Again,

0:40:41.640 --> 0:40:44.319
<v Speaker 1>you gotta think this is an early stage technology right now.

0:40:44.560 --> 0:40:46.680
<v Speaker 1>The UI for crypto is terrible. If you want to

0:40:46.760 --> 0:40:49.600
<v Speaker 1>email me, you can email Matt at Hogan dot com.

0:40:49.800 --> 0:40:52.279
<v Speaker 1>My first name and last name, easy memorable. If you

0:40:52.320 --> 0:40:55.360
<v Speaker 1>want to send me bitcoin. It's like fifty two random letters.

0:40:55.840 --> 0:40:59.239
<v Speaker 1>So I think the UI improvements will happen in and

0:40:59.280 --> 0:41:02.800
<v Speaker 1>will become easy to save, store, and spend crypto. I

0:41:02.840 --> 0:41:05.160
<v Speaker 1>think it's just a matter of software development. We have

0:41:05.280 --> 0:41:07.799
<v Speaker 1>been speaking with Matt Hogan. He is the global head

0:41:07.840 --> 0:41:10.840
<v Speaker 1>of Research. If you enjoy this conversation, be sure and

0:41:10.960 --> 0:41:13.520
<v Speaker 1>come back and check out the podcast extras, where we

0:41:13.640 --> 0:41:17.520
<v Speaker 1>keep the tape rolling and continue chatting about all things crypto.

0:41:18.160 --> 0:41:23.400
<v Speaker 1>You can find that at iTunes, Overcast, Bloomberg, Stitcher, wherever

0:41:23.560 --> 0:41:27.320
<v Speaker 1>your finer podcasts are sold. We love your comments, feedback

0:41:27.320 --> 0:41:31.160
<v Speaker 1>and suggestions right to us at m IB podcast. At

0:41:31.200 --> 0:41:34.480
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot net. You can check out my daily column

0:41:34.600 --> 0:41:37.880
<v Speaker 1>that's on Bloomberg dot com slash Opinion. Follow me on

0:41:38.000 --> 0:41:41.960
<v Speaker 1>Twitter at Rid Halts. I'm Barry Hults. You're listening to

0:41:42.120 --> 0:41:59.520
<v Speaker 1>Master's in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Welcome to the podcast, Matt.

0:41:59.640 --> 0:42:02.360
<v Speaker 1>I'm I'm so glad we're having this conversation. I was

0:42:02.440 --> 0:42:05.880
<v Speaker 1>looking forward uh to doing this with you towards the

0:42:06.040 --> 0:42:09.720
<v Speaker 1>end of last year and things just got so crazy

0:42:09.840 --> 0:42:14.200
<v Speaker 1>with everything. I'm glad we waited a little while to

0:42:14.360 --> 0:42:18.520
<v Speaker 1>just let everything settle out. But I have to ask

0:42:19.560 --> 0:42:25.239
<v Speaker 1>from a well, first, was was bitcoin of bubble last year? Yes?

0:42:25.640 --> 0:42:28.120
<v Speaker 1>Total bubble, total bubble. I mean when we start the

0:42:28.200 --> 0:42:34.719
<v Speaker 1>year like two thousand, did you started around a couple

0:42:34.719 --> 0:42:38.480
<v Speaker 1>of thousand and then ended up at nineteen five something

0:42:38.600 --> 0:42:41.040
<v Speaker 1>like that, and their speculative fervor, and there was every

0:42:41.239 --> 0:42:44.160
<v Speaker 1>element of a bubble that you or I would recognize,

0:42:44.200 --> 0:42:48.799
<v Speaker 1>including your bartender, your Cabby and your Pete was the top.

0:42:49.239 --> 0:42:54.759
<v Speaker 1>And then was what is that retrenchment somewhere in there? Yeah, absolutely,

0:42:54.960 --> 0:42:57.719
<v Speaker 1>that's a that's a big move down. It is significant. Yes,

0:42:57.840 --> 0:43:00.920
<v Speaker 1>it is still up, you know scent from the start

0:43:00.960 --> 0:43:05.160
<v Speaker 1>of seen until now. So from a longer term perspective,

0:43:05.160 --> 0:43:07.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, people love to make fun of holdlers in

0:43:07.440 --> 0:43:10.399
<v Speaker 1>crypto to hold on for dear life. That's the same

0:43:10.520 --> 0:43:12.880
<v Speaker 1>thing as buy and hold in equity, so you just

0:43:12.960 --> 0:43:14.759
<v Speaker 1>have to have a little bit more perspective. But yes,

0:43:14.840 --> 0:43:17.320
<v Speaker 1>it was a massive run up and a massive pullback

0:43:17.560 --> 0:43:21.360
<v Speaker 1>the cues and as one from two thousand, two thousand

0:43:21.440 --> 0:43:27.879
<v Speaker 1>three down, So this is comparable. I think that's right.

0:43:28.000 --> 0:43:30.320
<v Speaker 1>And it did the same thing that happened in the Internet,

0:43:30.360 --> 0:43:33.239
<v Speaker 1>which is it attracted a huge amount of talent, attracted

0:43:33.280 --> 0:43:36.080
<v Speaker 1>a huge amount of capital. Uh, and it's been very

0:43:36.160 --> 0:43:39.960
<v Speaker 1>painful for investors. I think out of that for for investors,

0:43:40.120 --> 0:43:42.960
<v Speaker 1>or for the people who just jumped on blindly when

0:43:43.040 --> 0:43:45.239
<v Speaker 1>it had already begun to move aggressive the people who

0:43:45.320 --> 0:43:48.680
<v Speaker 1>jumped on blindly when it already moved aggressively. And also, um,

0:43:49.120 --> 0:43:52.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, volatile, highly moving assets encouraged bad behavioral responses.

0:43:53.160 --> 0:43:55.520
<v Speaker 1>There was bad activity, um, But it did bring a

0:43:55.560 --> 0:43:58.480
<v Speaker 1>lot of capital and interest in development to the ecosystem.

0:43:58.600 --> 0:44:01.920
<v Speaker 1>So I do think interesting things will be born from that.

0:44:02.160 --> 0:44:04.800
<v Speaker 1>But yeah, it was it was a difficult year. So

0:44:04.880 --> 0:44:06.680
<v Speaker 1>let's talk a little bit about E t F s.

0:44:06.800 --> 0:44:08.919
<v Speaker 1>You were the CEO of E t F dot com.

0:44:09.320 --> 0:44:13.520
<v Speaker 1>We've already discussed how the industry has begun to mature

0:44:13.640 --> 0:44:18.080
<v Speaker 1>and change since your involvement, and will will note that's

0:44:18.080 --> 0:44:21.960
<v Speaker 1>a correlation, maybe not a precise causation. But I have

0:44:22.080 --> 0:44:24.719
<v Speaker 1>to ask one of my favorite questions with anybody working

0:44:24.760 --> 0:44:27.759
<v Speaker 1>in E t F. Are there e t fs that

0:44:27.880 --> 0:44:35.799
<v Speaker 1>exist today that you think should not exist? Should not exist? Um? Yes, okay, yes,

0:44:35.920 --> 0:44:37.680
<v Speaker 1>and I know exactly what you're gonna say, but go ahead,

0:44:37.719 --> 0:44:40.279
<v Speaker 1>what is it? Volatility t F? Oh? Really, I'm wrong?

0:44:40.360 --> 0:44:41.960
<v Speaker 1>I didn't. That was really what did you want? What

0:44:42.320 --> 0:44:47.319
<v Speaker 1>I was expected? Like the three X inverse? Yeah, I don't.

0:44:47.320 --> 0:44:49.600
<v Speaker 1>I don't have a particular problem. I had more of

0:44:49.640 --> 0:44:51.439
<v Speaker 1>a problem with those when they first came out because

0:44:51.440 --> 0:44:54.839
<v Speaker 1>people didn't understand them. I feel that people understand them

0:44:54.880 --> 0:44:57.520
<v Speaker 1>now and the quality of disclosures and information around them

0:44:57.600 --> 0:45:00.600
<v Speaker 1>are better. My issue with volatility E T f s

0:45:01.080 --> 0:45:05.600
<v Speaker 1>is people still don't understand them. Uh, and they overwhelm

0:45:05.760 --> 0:45:10.080
<v Speaker 1>the actual volume of volatility futures, and there's massive contango

0:45:10.440 --> 0:45:13.920
<v Speaker 1>that just makes them. They're they're they're testing Zeno's paradox

0:45:13.960 --> 0:45:16.160
<v Speaker 1>of whether they can actually get to zero, and I

0:45:16.200 --> 0:45:18.200
<v Speaker 1>think they're doing so in harming and you can't just

0:45:18.280 --> 0:45:22.000
<v Speaker 1>go halfway. You don't that I don't know. We'll find out.

0:45:22.239 --> 0:45:26.560
<v Speaker 1>UM explain contango for people who don't understand sure. So

0:45:26.760 --> 0:45:28.840
<v Speaker 1>contango is when you buy a future, you're buying the

0:45:28.960 --> 0:45:30.520
<v Speaker 1>right to buy it at a future day. Let's say

0:45:30.560 --> 0:45:32.839
<v Speaker 1>thirty days in the future. Let's say oil to take

0:45:32.840 --> 0:45:36.160
<v Speaker 1>account example, is fifty dollars now the future maybe trading

0:45:36.200 --> 0:45:39.000
<v Speaker 1>at If you buy it at fifty five and the

0:45:39.160 --> 0:45:42.279
<v Speaker 1>spot price doesn't move from fifty over the next month,

0:45:42.360 --> 0:45:45.680
<v Speaker 1>that future is going to converge down to fifty, and

0:45:45.719 --> 0:45:48.399
<v Speaker 1>you're gonna lose five dollars. That's ten percent of your money.

0:45:48.840 --> 0:45:52.320
<v Speaker 1>The problem with volatility futures is that they almost always

0:45:52.440 --> 0:45:55.640
<v Speaker 1>trade in contango, and it is a very sharp contango,

0:45:56.000 --> 0:45:59.600
<v Speaker 1>and so you're losing not just a couple percent, you

0:45:59.680 --> 0:46:02.360
<v Speaker 1>maybe losing ten or of your money every month. And

0:46:02.480 --> 0:46:06.120
<v Speaker 1>I think people bought those with the thought, hey, volatility

0:46:06.200 --> 0:46:08.160
<v Speaker 1>is at record lows, it's going to go up. That

0:46:08.239 --> 0:46:12.960
<v Speaker 1>thought was right eventually, eventually, um. But what they didn't

0:46:12.960 --> 0:46:16.320
<v Speaker 1>realize is you're not buying VIX. You're buying VIX futures,

0:46:16.400 --> 0:46:19.239
<v Speaker 1>and there's just a massive delta between the words VIX

0:46:19.600 --> 0:46:22.960
<v Speaker 1>and VIX futures, and that delta is squashing investors. So

0:46:23.120 --> 0:46:26.799
<v Speaker 1>as long as I'm testing you, let's do backwardization. Backwardation

0:46:26.920 --> 0:46:29.200
<v Speaker 1>is the exact opposite. If oil is at fifty, you

0:46:29.239 --> 0:46:31.399
<v Speaker 1>buy it at forty five. As long as the spot

0:46:31.440 --> 0:46:34.279
<v Speaker 1>price stays at fifty, you make five dollars, which is whatever.

0:46:35.920 --> 0:46:39.160
<v Speaker 1>Uh And and that's a more positive situation. My issue

0:46:39.200 --> 0:46:41.080
<v Speaker 1>with e t f s and all these futures based

0:46:41.120 --> 0:46:44.920
<v Speaker 1>ETFs is a lot of they're available to all retail investors,

0:46:45.320 --> 0:46:48.360
<v Speaker 1>and retail investors may think I'm buying oil that's the

0:46:48.480 --> 0:46:51.239
<v Speaker 1>spot number that I see on TV, and that's not

0:46:51.360 --> 0:46:54.440
<v Speaker 1>you're buying oil futures. Now it's disclosed and disclaimed. Uh.

0:46:54.520 --> 0:46:57.480
<v Speaker 1>And I'm generally in favor of ETFs existing in these markets,

0:46:57.520 --> 0:47:00.480
<v Speaker 1>and and probably they should even exist in volatile but

0:47:00.600 --> 0:47:05.040
<v Speaker 1>the educational burden required is massive, or else mom and

0:47:05.080 --> 0:47:06.880
<v Speaker 1>Pop can buy them and get crushed. So now they

0:47:06.920 --> 0:47:09.400
<v Speaker 1>are a different gold DTF. You mentioned g l D.

0:47:10.880 --> 0:47:13.160
<v Speaker 1>Am I misunderstand that I'm on the impression g l

0:47:13.239 --> 0:47:18.040
<v Speaker 1>D represents physical gold held in volts it owns. But

0:47:18.160 --> 0:47:19.920
<v Speaker 1>there are other e t F and I don't remember

0:47:20.000 --> 0:47:24.200
<v Speaker 1>which that are actually trading gold futures, not buying the gold.

0:47:24.320 --> 0:47:26.560
<v Speaker 1>That's right. Uh. And some of these are leveraged and

0:47:26.680 --> 0:47:29.840
<v Speaker 1>some of them are inverse, etcetera. That's that's exactly right.

0:47:29.920 --> 0:47:32.239
<v Speaker 1>So when you get into leverage, you may well use

0:47:32.280 --> 0:47:35.120
<v Speaker 1>futures to get those leverage. There may even be one

0:47:35.400 --> 0:47:37.960
<v Speaker 1>x gold futures et s. I'm not sure. I don't

0:47:38.000 --> 0:47:40.640
<v Speaker 1>know why anyone would buy gold always trades at a

0:47:40.680 --> 0:47:43.359
<v Speaker 1>persistent entango that's about equal to the risk free rate.

0:47:43.440 --> 0:47:45.680
<v Speaker 1>So you're just losing a little bit of money. Um.

0:47:45.920 --> 0:47:48.160
<v Speaker 1>The one advantage it would give you is is their

0:47:48.239 --> 0:47:50.760
<v Speaker 1>taxes futures, which if you hold them for short periods

0:47:50.760 --> 0:47:53.640
<v Speaker 1>of time, is a beneficial tax treatment. So there may

0:47:53.680 --> 0:47:56.479
<v Speaker 1>be a tax angle for short term traders of gold.

0:47:57.320 --> 0:48:03.560
<v Speaker 1>That's kind of um. So, so that's one particular e

0:48:03.719 --> 0:48:06.920
<v Speaker 1>t F um that you don't think I ort to exist.

0:48:08.400 --> 0:48:11.640
<v Speaker 1>I was wanted to steer the conversation a slightly different directions.

0:48:11.640 --> 0:48:14.600
<v Speaker 1>So let me throw this at you. How do you

0:48:15.080 --> 0:48:19.320
<v Speaker 1>look at the Darwinian process of all these e t

0:48:19.560 --> 0:48:23.799
<v Speaker 1>F s coming out each year, most of which don't survive. Yeah,

0:48:23.880 --> 0:48:26.160
<v Speaker 1>I think that's great. I think that's great. If you

0:48:26.239 --> 0:48:29.560
<v Speaker 1>didn't have that process, you wouldn't have a significant you

0:48:29.560 --> 0:48:32.200
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't have the e t F industry for starters, right,

0:48:32.280 --> 0:48:35.399
<v Speaker 1>the e t F industry really uh in real life

0:48:35.560 --> 0:48:37.440
<v Speaker 1>was launched at b g I. When they launched a

0:48:37.520 --> 0:48:39.319
<v Speaker 1>huge number of e t F s, it wiped out

0:48:39.360 --> 0:48:41.440
<v Speaker 1>bonuses at b g I for three years. All the

0:48:41.560 --> 0:48:44.200
<v Speaker 1>executives were angry, but they were like, let's give this

0:48:44.320 --> 0:48:47.200
<v Speaker 1>a shot, and and all of the a lot of

0:48:47.239 --> 0:48:48.960
<v Speaker 1>the e t F that we take for granted today,

0:48:49.560 --> 0:48:51.840
<v Speaker 1>we're spaghetti on the wall like a lot of factory

0:48:51.960 --> 0:48:54.520
<v Speaker 1>t f s low volatility e t F s um

0:48:55.040 --> 0:49:00.400
<v Speaker 1>So you can't get innovation without some misses. And so

0:49:00.560 --> 0:49:04.440
<v Speaker 1>I'm fine with them being launched and closed. So what

0:49:04.680 --> 0:49:07.680
<v Speaker 1>what is Jeff Bezos's comment if if you're not failing,

0:49:07.760 --> 0:49:10.120
<v Speaker 1>you're not taking any risks. If that's exactly right, you

0:49:10.200 --> 0:49:13.440
<v Speaker 1>have to at least try and just recognize we don't

0:49:13.480 --> 0:49:16.400
<v Speaker 1>know what's gonna work, but we won't know until it

0:49:16.760 --> 0:49:19.080
<v Speaker 1>until we you know, put up the flag, pas, until

0:49:19.120 --> 0:49:21.239
<v Speaker 1>we give it a shot. And you know, the first

0:49:21.360 --> 0:49:24.960
<v Speaker 1>the first article about all the e t F s

0:49:25.000 --> 0:49:28.200
<v Speaker 1>needing to exist, I think ran I'm gonna get this wrong.

0:49:28.239 --> 0:49:30.320
<v Speaker 1>I think it ran in Investment News in two thousand

0:49:30.360 --> 0:49:32.920
<v Speaker 1>and three. They're like, we've reached the end of e

0:49:33.040 --> 0:49:35.680
<v Speaker 1>t F innovation and development. You can already buy stocks

0:49:35.719 --> 0:49:38.279
<v Speaker 1>and bonds and that was like that was it? Uh?

0:49:38.320 --> 0:49:40.680
<v Speaker 1>And those those have appeared over and over and over again,

0:49:40.760 --> 0:49:43.239
<v Speaker 1>So never discount. I don't think we'll ever get to

0:49:43.320 --> 0:49:45.200
<v Speaker 1>the end of ETF And so let me ask you

0:49:45.520 --> 0:49:49.479
<v Speaker 1>a different version. It seems that and you'll your geek

0:49:49.560 --> 0:49:54.239
<v Speaker 1>so you'll appreciate this. We don't have a Gaussian distribution

0:49:54.640 --> 0:49:58.800
<v Speaker 1>of firms and assets. It's say, very much a fathead

0:49:58.840 --> 0:50:02.160
<v Speaker 1>long tail where you have the big four, really the

0:50:02.200 --> 0:50:06.800
<v Speaker 1>big three, Vanguard, black Rock, State Street. I'm trying to

0:50:06.840 --> 0:50:11.279
<v Speaker 1>even think who is the next closest after them, and

0:50:11.440 --> 0:50:14.799
<v Speaker 1>that's you get down the spectrum, I mean, your your

0:50:14.840 --> 0:50:17.600
<v Speaker 1>power law distribution is it's three, and then it begins

0:50:17.640 --> 0:50:21.960
<v Speaker 1>to fall off pretty rapidly. Why have only three companies

0:50:22.080 --> 0:50:27.120
<v Speaker 1>captured so much of the investing public's mind share and

0:50:28.000 --> 0:50:31.680
<v Speaker 1>assets and the actual dollars share? Black Rock is six

0:50:31.760 --> 0:50:34.520
<v Speaker 1>trillion going on seven trillion, Vanguard is five on the

0:50:34.560 --> 0:50:37.960
<v Speaker 1>way to six trillion with a T. Why is it

0:50:38.080 --> 0:50:40.719
<v Speaker 1>just a handful of companies that seem to be the

0:50:40.800 --> 0:50:43.560
<v Speaker 1>biggest winners in this space? Because ETFs are a natural

0:50:43.680 --> 0:50:47.759
<v Speaker 1>monopoly system, unlike traditional active mutual funds. In active mutual funds,

0:50:47.800 --> 0:50:50.719
<v Speaker 1>you need a Cambrian explosion, different guys trying different things.

0:50:51.000 --> 0:50:53.960
<v Speaker 1>In e t F land, a large liquid ETF is

0:50:54.040 --> 0:50:56.840
<v Speaker 1>better than a small, illiquid ETF. So if you already

0:50:56.920 --> 0:51:00.520
<v Speaker 1>have good exposure to the SNP five, you don't really

0:51:00.600 --> 0:51:03.680
<v Speaker 1>need other funds. Now other funds have popped up because

0:51:03.719 --> 0:51:06.560
<v Speaker 1>you get distribution in different channels. There may be two

0:51:06.719 --> 0:51:09.360
<v Speaker 1>or three e t f s offering broad based exposure,

0:51:09.640 --> 0:51:12.840
<v Speaker 1>but you're going to see severe concentration in e t

0:51:13.000 --> 0:51:16.160
<v Speaker 1>F assets as long as they're dominated by index exposure,

0:51:16.520 --> 0:51:18.480
<v Speaker 1>because larger is better in e t f s, and

0:51:18.600 --> 0:51:21.400
<v Speaker 1>that is a good thing for investors, and I think

0:51:21.440 --> 0:51:24.920
<v Speaker 1>it will persist maybe indefinitely and certainly for the next

0:51:24.960 --> 0:51:27.279
<v Speaker 1>ten years. So larger is better, and I'm going to

0:51:27.360 --> 0:51:31.840
<v Speaker 1>guess that's the function of a combination of scale, quality

0:51:32.280 --> 0:51:36.520
<v Speaker 1>and liquidity of those Yeah, scale it costs, right, It's

0:51:36.560 --> 0:51:38.360
<v Speaker 1>it's cheaper to run a large et F than it

0:51:38.440 --> 0:51:40.839
<v Speaker 1>is a small et F. There are just no advantages

0:51:41.120 --> 0:51:44.280
<v Speaker 1>to a small ETF. Now, small ETFs can be liquid

0:51:44.680 --> 0:51:47.800
<v Speaker 1>and they can do innovative things, but you can't launch

0:51:47.840 --> 0:51:50.560
<v Speaker 1>a me too e t F without a unique distribution

0:51:50.600 --> 0:51:55.000
<v Speaker 1>mechanism like trials Schwab has and expected to gain assets.

0:51:55.080 --> 0:51:58.200
<v Speaker 1>They will just all go mostly, not all, but mostly

0:51:58.280 --> 0:52:00.719
<v Speaker 1>they'll go to the large players. And that's why it's

0:52:00.719 --> 0:52:03.320
<v Speaker 1>a great business for for black Rock and Vanguarden and

0:52:03.440 --> 0:52:06.719
<v Speaker 1>State Street. Quite fascinating. I know I only have you

0:52:06.840 --> 0:52:09.480
<v Speaker 1>for a finite amount of time. Let's jump to my

0:52:09.760 --> 0:52:13.160
<v Speaker 1>favorite questions. And I'm gonna throw a few curve bowls

0:52:13.239 --> 0:52:16.800
<v Speaker 1>at you with this. Let's start. What's the most important

0:52:16.880 --> 0:52:22.600
<v Speaker 1>thing people don't know about Matt Hoagland's which is an

0:52:22.640 --> 0:52:26.640
<v Speaker 1>inside joe about Matt Hogan. Let's see, my career started

0:52:26.680 --> 0:52:30.680
<v Speaker 1>as a minor league baseball mascot. Uh. Yeah, I was

0:52:30.719 --> 0:52:34.839
<v Speaker 1>a nine ft seal for the double A Portland's Sea Dogs. Um. Now,

0:52:34.960 --> 0:52:37.879
<v Speaker 1>I I say that in jest. My career path has

0:52:37.880 --> 0:52:41.759
<v Speaker 1>been very unusual. I've been a speechwriter, I've worked in biotech,

0:52:41.880 --> 0:52:44.680
<v Speaker 1>I've been a biotech portfolio manager. I ran et f

0:52:44.760 --> 0:52:48.799
<v Speaker 1>dot com, now I'm in crypto. Um. All those are

0:52:48.880 --> 0:52:52.320
<v Speaker 1>only united by the the how much I like to

0:52:52.440 --> 0:52:55.799
<v Speaker 1>talk about things that seem complex. Um. But but that's

0:52:55.840 --> 0:52:57.960
<v Speaker 1>the new unique thing about my career. It's been very

0:52:58.640 --> 0:53:02.960
<v Speaker 1>varied over time. Well, well that's uh, that's certainly interesting enough.

0:53:03.960 --> 0:53:07.680
<v Speaker 1>Why is this lighting up? Um? Tell us about your

0:53:07.760 --> 0:53:12.719
<v Speaker 1>early mentors who helped shape this serpentine career of yours. Yeah.

0:53:12.800 --> 0:53:15.239
<v Speaker 1>The number one person who comes to mind is a

0:53:15.320 --> 0:53:18.760
<v Speaker 1>former guest of yours, which is Dave Nodding. Dave Nodding

0:53:18.920 --> 0:53:21.200
<v Speaker 1>hired me when I was a minor league mascot to

0:53:21.320 --> 0:53:24.760
<v Speaker 1>become a biotech analyst at the at the transparent mutual

0:53:24.840 --> 0:53:29.279
<v Speaker 1>fund he was running at the time, Macro Meta Markets Market. Yeah,

0:53:29.400 --> 0:53:32.200
<v Speaker 1>we ran open Fund, which was the first mutual fund

0:53:32.280 --> 0:53:35.800
<v Speaker 1>to disclose its trades in real time, way ahead of

0:53:35.800 --> 0:53:38.680
<v Speaker 1>the way ahead of it. We had live video where

0:53:38.719 --> 0:53:41.920
<v Speaker 1>you could watch us trade. Um and and I learned

0:53:41.920 --> 0:53:44.920
<v Speaker 1>a lot of things from Dave. Uh. He continues to

0:53:45.000 --> 0:53:46.839
<v Speaker 1>be a good friend and we've worked together at three

0:53:46.960 --> 0:53:52.040
<v Speaker 1>or four companies since. Um. He he taught me the

0:53:52.440 --> 0:53:55.600
<v Speaker 1>core importance of being honest with your colleagues when you

0:53:55.640 --> 0:53:57.400
<v Speaker 1>go to work. And I think the first company you

0:53:57.480 --> 0:54:00.200
<v Speaker 1>work for in a serious way and the first sin

0:54:00.280 --> 0:54:03.120
<v Speaker 1>you work for is really important in shaping how you

0:54:03.200 --> 0:54:06.680
<v Speaker 1>view the world and how how your career progresses. Interesting

0:54:06.920 --> 0:54:10.279
<v Speaker 1>and uh Dave is now with c BO when he

0:54:10.480 --> 0:54:12.520
<v Speaker 1>runs E t F dot com. Yeah, he sits in

0:54:12.600 --> 0:54:16.120
<v Speaker 1>my former seat. That's funny. So what in what let's

0:54:16.160 --> 0:54:20.120
<v Speaker 1>talk about investors one investors influenced the way you think

0:54:20.200 --> 0:54:24.080
<v Speaker 1>about things like E t F S or crypto. Yeah.

0:54:24.640 --> 0:54:28.240
<v Speaker 1>Jack Bogel uh Is is the only investor who really

0:54:28.960 --> 0:54:31.640
<v Speaker 1>matters to me. Maybe my grandfather a little bit, but

0:54:31.719 --> 0:54:33.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm one of the so I work in crypto, I'm

0:54:33.719 --> 0:54:35.880
<v Speaker 1>one of the most boring investors in the world. I

0:54:35.920 --> 0:54:39.040
<v Speaker 1>don't think I have traded my portfolio other to rebalance

0:54:39.440 --> 0:54:42.600
<v Speaker 1>in eight or nine years. Uh and sort of the

0:54:43.480 --> 0:54:47.360
<v Speaker 1>um the overwhelming math that Bogel presented right. I started

0:54:47.360 --> 0:54:49.760
<v Speaker 1>my career on the active side as an active biotech

0:54:49.800 --> 0:54:52.919
<v Speaker 1>analyst and then an active biotech portfolio manager. I learned

0:54:53.000 --> 0:54:56.720
<v Speaker 1>the hard way that active doesn't work, and so pivoting

0:54:56.760 --> 0:55:00.720
<v Speaker 1>into indexing and learning from Bogel UH set the stage

0:55:00.760 --> 0:55:02.720
<v Speaker 1>for my E T F career and set the stage

0:55:03.360 --> 0:55:06.879
<v Speaker 1>even for my crypto career. Although that probably makes Jack

0:55:06.960 --> 0:55:10.200
<v Speaker 1>Bogel want to throw his head against the wall and

0:55:10.520 --> 0:55:15.080
<v Speaker 1>also a prior guest one of my heroes. That's fantastic

0:55:15.160 --> 0:55:17.560
<v Speaker 1>to hear. So let's talk about books. What are some

0:55:17.840 --> 0:55:23.480
<v Speaker 1>of your favorite books, be they investing, non investing, fiction, nonfiction, crypto,

0:55:23.800 --> 0:55:26.600
<v Speaker 1>or other. I knew you would ask about books. I

0:55:26.680 --> 0:55:29.480
<v Speaker 1>was thinking about the most important books I've read. The

0:55:29.520 --> 0:55:32.880
<v Speaker 1>most important book to my life probably was a heartbreaking

0:55:32.920 --> 0:55:36.640
<v Speaker 1>work of staggering genius by Dave Eggers, who both writes

0:55:36.719 --> 0:55:39.799
<v Speaker 1>with unique clarity and also came at a time when

0:55:39.840 --> 0:55:44.440
<v Speaker 1>I needed to rediscover my agency and ability to shape

0:55:44.480 --> 0:55:46.000
<v Speaker 1>my life in the way that I wanted, and that

0:55:46.160 --> 0:55:50.440
<v Speaker 1>was a very important book for me. Um after that, Uh,

0:55:50.600 --> 0:55:53.840
<v Speaker 1>it's it's a weird amalgam of of a handful of

0:55:54.280 --> 0:55:58.200
<v Speaker 1>poetry books and then whatever I've been reading most recently.

0:55:58.320 --> 0:56:00.320
<v Speaker 1>So the book I've been reading most recent Lee is

0:56:00.360 --> 0:56:03.440
<v Speaker 1>a History of California. I'm a transplant to California. I

0:56:03.560 --> 0:56:10.080
<v Speaker 1>moved there ten years ago. Everybody a transplant, I basically it. Uh.

0:56:10.160 --> 0:56:12.480
<v Speaker 1>And my kids are learning all about California history the

0:56:12.520 --> 0:56:14.680
<v Speaker 1>same way I learned about Virginia history when I was

0:56:14.719 --> 0:56:17.480
<v Speaker 1>a kid. At the time, I thought that was just history,

0:56:17.800 --> 0:56:19.719
<v Speaker 1>But it turns out you learned different things depending where

0:56:19.760 --> 0:56:21.520
<v Speaker 1>you grow up. What's the name of the book. It's

0:56:21.560 --> 0:56:24.680
<v Speaker 1>named California. Uh. And I'll tell one little anecdote from

0:56:24.719 --> 0:56:27.839
<v Speaker 1>it that that that empowered me. If you go to California,

0:56:27.840 --> 0:56:30.480
<v Speaker 1>it looks like sort of the especially southern California, it

0:56:30.560 --> 0:56:33.000
<v Speaker 1>looks like the Mediterranean. All the houses are in these

0:56:33.080 --> 0:56:36.920
<v Speaker 1>Mediterranean styles. And I assume this was organic, but in

0:56:37.120 --> 0:56:41.000
<v Speaker 1>fact it wasn't. It all started uh in in in

0:56:41.120 --> 0:56:44.120
<v Speaker 1>Santa Barbara, when Santa Barbara burned to the ground. And

0:56:44.200 --> 0:56:49.600
<v Speaker 1>at the time it was twenties, Okay, at the time,

0:56:50.160 --> 0:56:52.000
<v Speaker 1>there was a lot of advertising to get people to

0:56:52.040 --> 0:56:54.960
<v Speaker 1>move out there, and people were deliberately casting it as

0:56:55.040 --> 0:56:58.200
<v Speaker 1>the Mediterranean of the Americas, and so they built it

0:56:58.360 --> 0:57:01.400
<v Speaker 1>in its physical presence to look like that. And what

0:57:01.600 --> 0:57:03.960
<v Speaker 1>that reminded me of was something that I had forgotten,

0:57:04.000 --> 0:57:06.960
<v Speaker 1>which is the importance of narrative in the ability to

0:57:07.040 --> 0:57:09.920
<v Speaker 1>shape reality and how how being able to define and

0:57:10.040 --> 0:57:12.920
<v Speaker 1>see what it could be actually can lead to physical

0:57:13.040 --> 0:57:16.040
<v Speaker 1>developments that that become entrenched and just become a part

0:57:16.080 --> 0:57:18.240
<v Speaker 1>of society. And I thought that was an interesting life

0:57:18.280 --> 0:57:21.920
<v Speaker 1>immenstating art there you go, exactly interesting. And as long

0:57:22.000 --> 0:57:25.560
<v Speaker 1>as you mentioned poetry, Yeah, we're a very um hip

0:57:26.000 --> 0:57:29.680
<v Speaker 1>audience of listeners. Give us, uh, what's your who's your

0:57:29.720 --> 0:57:34.280
<v Speaker 1>favorite poet or their favorite Well, yeah, August Klein's Dollars,

0:57:34.640 --> 0:57:37.000
<v Speaker 1>Red Sauce, Whiskey and Snow is one of my favorite

0:57:37.040 --> 0:57:40.520
<v Speaker 1>books of poetry. I think Red Sauce, Whiskey and Snow. Yeah,

0:57:40.560 --> 0:57:43.160
<v Speaker 1>I think about fifty of the poems and there are terrible,

0:57:43.520 --> 0:57:46.280
<v Speaker 1>but the other fifty are seen with such clarity and

0:57:46.400 --> 0:57:49.320
<v Speaker 1>with with the kind of emotional connections that really resonate

0:57:49.400 --> 0:57:52.120
<v Speaker 1>with me. Uh that it's it's an important book to me,

0:57:52.200 --> 0:57:56.080
<v Speaker 1>and I read it regularly. That is quite fascinating. Um,

0:57:56.440 --> 0:57:58.760
<v Speaker 1>So I have to ask. This is a question I

0:58:00.200 --> 0:58:04.320
<v Speaker 1>we were talking about earlier, and I'm actually debating making

0:58:04.400 --> 0:58:08.160
<v Speaker 1>this a regular question because our conversation about it was

0:58:08.200 --> 0:58:12.640
<v Speaker 1>so fascinating. But what was your first car? My first

0:58:12.760 --> 0:58:17.360
<v Speaker 1>car was a terrible as I said earlier, a terrible choice.

0:58:17.800 --> 0:58:20.560
<v Speaker 1>I bought a Volkswagen Jetta shortly after I got my

0:58:20.640 --> 0:58:23.760
<v Speaker 1>first job, and that was the disaster in like nine

0:58:23.880 --> 0:58:29.000
<v Speaker 1>different ways. Really because my experience with Volkswagens, and this

0:58:29.200 --> 0:58:32.800
<v Speaker 1>might have been cars of a different year of the sixties, eighties, whatever,

0:58:33.360 --> 0:58:35.840
<v Speaker 1>they were indestructible. I had a VW Bug with three

0:58:35.920 --> 0:58:39.920
<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand miles. My roommates Volkswagen Golf. We would just

0:58:40.040 --> 0:58:42.680
<v Speaker 1>take it apart and swap out parts. I need a

0:58:42.760 --> 0:58:45.960
<v Speaker 1>new fender and just take the old one to the junkyard. Hey,

0:58:46.040 --> 0:58:49.800
<v Speaker 1>I need one of these five dollars like, you can't

0:58:49.840 --> 0:58:52.560
<v Speaker 1>do that anymore. But they were pretty indestructible. Why was

0:58:52.600 --> 0:58:55.680
<v Speaker 1>the Jetta so so? For two reasons. One, it was

0:58:55.880 --> 0:59:00.440
<v Speaker 1>utterly destructible it constantly broke down, and to like it

0:59:00.560 --> 0:59:03.600
<v Speaker 1>was an aspirational purchase, right, it was a poor man's

0:59:03.920 --> 0:59:08.440
<v Speaker 1>uh's BMW you you improved on that with a poor

0:59:08.480 --> 0:59:12.080
<v Speaker 1>men company? Yeah? Uh so. So I bought it because

0:59:12.120 --> 0:59:14.840
<v Speaker 1>I thought, I'm a biotech portfolio manager. I need this

0:59:15.000 --> 0:59:17.919
<v Speaker 1>nice new car. I could have done so many better

0:59:18.160 --> 0:59:22.320
<v Speaker 1>things with that money than by this terrible car with

0:59:22.480 --> 0:59:26.000
<v Speaker 1>a poor historical track record of reliability, which I knew

0:59:26.080 --> 0:59:28.360
<v Speaker 1>when I bought it. But I liked the way it looked,

0:59:28.400 --> 0:59:31.600
<v Speaker 1>and it was the people I was around owned Volkswagen Jettas,

0:59:31.600 --> 0:59:33.400
<v Speaker 1>and I bought it. Uh And it was just a

0:59:33.560 --> 0:59:36.880
<v Speaker 1>yoke on my neck until I finally sold it. That's

0:59:37.000 --> 0:59:39.840
<v Speaker 1>very that's very funny. So, um, tell us about a

0:59:39.920 --> 0:59:43.160
<v Speaker 1>time you failed and what you learned from the experience. Yeah.

0:59:43.600 --> 0:59:46.880
<v Speaker 1>Uh So. When I was a biotech portfolio manager at

0:59:46.920 --> 0:59:51.240
<v Speaker 1>open Fund, I bought a company called Titan Pharmaceuticals, which

0:59:51.280 --> 0:59:52.880
<v Speaker 1>had a drug in front of the f D A.

0:59:53.120 --> 0:59:56.600
<v Speaker 1>This is this is two thousand was when I think

0:59:56.600 --> 1:00:00.280
<v Speaker 1>I made this purchase. Biotechs obviously a binary I'll come

1:00:00.320 --> 1:00:02.640
<v Speaker 1>at the f D A uh And it went against

1:00:02.720 --> 1:00:04.960
<v Speaker 1>me and I lost a huge amount of money, uh

1:00:05.120 --> 1:00:07.840
<v Speaker 1>for the company. And I learned two really important things

1:00:07.880 --> 1:00:10.400
<v Speaker 1>from that. When it happened, I thought I was gonna

1:00:10.440 --> 1:00:13.160
<v Speaker 1>get fired because I was new to the job. And

1:00:13.280 --> 1:00:15.520
<v Speaker 1>I just lost like two million dollars for the for

1:00:15.640 --> 1:00:17.760
<v Speaker 1>the fund, which to me at the time having been

1:00:17.840 --> 1:00:21.400
<v Speaker 1>a more money than more money than God uh. And no.

1:00:21.760 --> 1:00:24.120
<v Speaker 1>One of the things I learned from my mentor Dave

1:00:24.200 --> 1:00:26.560
<v Speaker 1>Nodding was all you have to do is own up

1:00:26.600 --> 1:00:28.600
<v Speaker 1>to what went wrong and design a process so it

1:00:28.640 --> 1:00:31.240
<v Speaker 1>doesn't happen again. And I did that and then just

1:00:31.320 --> 1:00:32.960
<v Speaker 1>went on about my day. And I've used that with

1:00:33.120 --> 1:00:36.560
<v Speaker 1>every subsequent failure in business, and it immediately clears the

1:00:36.640 --> 1:00:38.720
<v Speaker 1>air and gets you on a better path. The other

1:00:38.800 --> 1:00:42.120
<v Speaker 1>thing I learned, which was unique to investing in biotech

1:00:42.200 --> 1:00:45.520
<v Speaker 1>but has application, was I had focused entirely on the

1:00:45.600 --> 1:00:48.440
<v Speaker 1>wrong thing. So the sexy thing in biotech, the thing

1:00:48.480 --> 1:00:51.480
<v Speaker 1>everyone talks about is does the drug work? And the

1:00:52.160 --> 1:00:55.200
<v Speaker 1>the does drug work question for Titan was true, it

1:00:55.280 --> 1:00:57.680
<v Speaker 1>seemed to work, but that is not what the FDA

1:00:57.840 --> 1:01:00.240
<v Speaker 1>cares about. The FDA is a bunch of doctors, the

1:01:00.320 --> 1:01:03.960
<v Speaker 1>hippocratic ghost says, first, do know, they care only about

1:01:04.080 --> 1:01:07.640
<v Speaker 1>safety if it might work, but it's safe. They will

1:01:07.720 --> 1:01:10.200
<v Speaker 1>prove it. This one there were risks, but there are

1:01:10.240 --> 1:01:12.800
<v Speaker 1>also benefits, and they just shot it down and and

1:01:12.880 --> 1:01:15.840
<v Speaker 1>it taught me that you have to frame things not

1:01:16.080 --> 1:01:18.520
<v Speaker 1>from what you think is important, but what from the

1:01:18.640 --> 1:01:21.600
<v Speaker 1>people who are in control of that I think is important.

1:01:21.640 --> 1:01:26.320
<v Speaker 1>And in biotech that's safety. Efficacy is a distant second.

1:01:26.720 --> 1:01:28.800
<v Speaker 1>And that's true like when I built the e t

1:01:28.920 --> 1:01:31.200
<v Speaker 1>F conference. When you build an t F conference, you

1:01:31.240 --> 1:01:33.120
<v Speaker 1>want to focus on what's going to go up the

1:01:33.160 --> 1:01:36.040
<v Speaker 1>most the next year. Where should people invest? What financial

1:01:36.080 --> 1:01:38.480
<v Speaker 1>advisors want to learn is how can I retain and

1:01:38.560 --> 1:01:41.080
<v Speaker 1>grow up clients? Right? They want to know I want

1:01:41.120 --> 1:01:42.840
<v Speaker 1>to make sure I don't get fired, and whether I

1:01:42.880 --> 1:01:46.080
<v Speaker 1>can build a better portfolio is actually secondary to do

1:01:46.200 --> 1:01:48.360
<v Speaker 1>I understand this, Can I talk about this? Will this

1:01:48.440 --> 1:01:50.760
<v Speaker 1>help me win new clients? And sort of the ability

1:01:50.840 --> 1:01:54.440
<v Speaker 1>to reframe what you think is important into what's actually

1:01:54.480 --> 1:01:57.320
<v Speaker 1>important was an important lesson. So tell us what you

1:01:57.400 --> 1:01:59.480
<v Speaker 1>do for fun? What do you do to relax or

1:01:59.560 --> 1:02:02.080
<v Speaker 1>stay in ape outside of the office. Yeah, I'm a runner.

1:02:02.320 --> 1:02:04.720
<v Speaker 1>I love to run, I love to hike, but I

1:02:04.840 --> 1:02:08.160
<v Speaker 1>have uh, I have three kids, a wife who works,

1:02:08.320 --> 1:02:10.200
<v Speaker 1>I work at a startup. I sit on boards. I

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<v Speaker 1>have four chickens. Mostly I just try to keep all

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<v Speaker 1>this plate spinning. But when I do get away, I

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<v Speaker 1>like to I like to run or hike or be outside.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm gonna I'm gonna back you up a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit because slipped into that whole running hiking family thing. Yeah,

1:02:25.960 --> 1:02:29.640
<v Speaker 1>was something about chickens. Chickens. Yeah, yeah, So we went

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<v Speaker 1>to the feed store with the kids to get some

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<v Speaker 1>hay because we thought it'd be cute to have hay

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<v Speaker 1>bales for a party for people to sit on. And

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<v Speaker 1>in the feed store where two day old chicks, kids

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<v Speaker 1>are very just sitting near near the They're adorable, so adorable,

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<v Speaker 1>And so we brought home. I was convinced to bring

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<v Speaker 1>home four chicks. Uh. They cost three dollars and seventy

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<v Speaker 1>five cents each. If you want to know what chicks cost. Um, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I actually buy them by the dozen and it's a

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<v Speaker 1>dollar rating nine. Well I should have learned. Um, Now

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<v Speaker 1>they're two and a half months old. Uh. Now we've

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<v Speaker 1>invested money in a chicken coop. The first egg that

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<v Speaker 1>we get, which will be in like a month and

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<v Speaker 1>a half, it's going to cost me about two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>dollars and better. The chickens are great. The chickens are great.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you interact with them as a pet or they

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<v Speaker 1>just dumb a little dinosaurs running around. Actually they're very nice.

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<v Speaker 1>They're very nice. I mean they feed them. They should

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<v Speaker 1>be feed them. They like you. They each have their

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<v Speaker 1>own personalities, Uh, distinct like you, noticeably different. You have

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<v Speaker 1>the nice guys, you have sort of the sort of

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<v Speaker 1>mean guys. They do different things. Um, they all look

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<v Speaker 1>different because they're different breeds. Uh. They have a half

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<v Speaker 1>life when you pick them up of about ninety seconds.

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<v Speaker 1>If you hold them for more than ninety seconds, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>they start to poop everywhere. And so you can pick

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<v Speaker 1>them up and they're very cute, but the clock starts

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<v Speaker 1>ticking them. You gotta like, you gotta put them down

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<v Speaker 1>before disaster happens. That's hilarious. When when I lived in

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<v Speaker 1>the city or next door neighbors had dozens of birds,

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<v Speaker 1>and they had a cockatoo that was a baby. And

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<v Speaker 1>when they would go away, you know, the one bird

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<v Speaker 1>that needed attention was gonzo. So we would babysit this

1:04:13.320 --> 1:04:17.280
<v Speaker 1>cockatoo and even at like a year old, I would

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<v Speaker 1>hold him on my arm. He would put his wing

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<v Speaker 1>around me and the two of us would watch TV.

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<v Speaker 1>There you go, And he truly had a personality. He

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<v Speaker 1>was very smart. I taught him to laugh. But they're

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<v Speaker 1>known as really intelligent birds. Chickens aren't necessarily have that

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<v Speaker 1>same reputation. So I was curious about the personality. And yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>they still have some personality. We haven't watched much TV together,

1:04:44.560 --> 1:04:47.120
<v Speaker 1>but but they do have personally. And all the kids, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>when mom makes chicken for dinner, that hasn't been Oh oh,

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<v Speaker 1>so my kids are vegetarians are so this has not

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<v Speaker 1>come up there, Yeah, hasn't come up, but they're ready

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<v Speaker 1>to eat the eggs. Hold on a sec. You're not.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a vegetarian. You are. I've had meals with you.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm an opportunistic vegetarian. So so, so my rule is,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a vegetarian unless around there's gonna beat at the table, right,

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<v Speaker 1>unless it's going to be really exceptional or different. You

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<v Speaker 1>have to experience the world. So that's fair, opportunistic vegetarian,

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<v Speaker 1>that's absolutely fair. Um, So, our last two questions. If

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<v Speaker 1>you were giving some advice to a millennial who was

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<v Speaker 1>interested in a career of either finance or crypto. What

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<v Speaker 1>sort of advice would you give them? How do you

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<v Speaker 1>think they should approach either of those fields? Interesting? And

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not asking which would you steer them? I'm asking, Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>what advice would you give them if they came asking

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<v Speaker 1>about that? Yeah? So either I would advise them, as

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<v Speaker 1>I do most young people, to take some time off

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<v Speaker 1>and go travel and play around while they're young before

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<v Speaker 1>they get serious about their career. If they didn't take

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<v Speaker 1>that advice, which I think is good advice, um, I

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<v Speaker 1>would encourage them to think most about their company, the

1:06:05.000 --> 1:06:09.320
<v Speaker 1>company they choose, and their direct manager, and think the

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<v Speaker 1>least about their intro salary, or their title or even

1:06:14.400 --> 1:06:16.760
<v Speaker 1>what work they're going to be doing. It's vastly more

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<v Speaker 1>important to engage yourself with a well run company, uh

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<v Speaker 1>and with a good manager where you can learn good

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<v Speaker 1>work habits than it is to make an extra four

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<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars a year or to have a particular job

1:06:29.440 --> 1:06:31.960
<v Speaker 1>that focuses on one skill set or another. So so

1:06:32.080 --> 1:06:35.640
<v Speaker 1>pick your company careful, pick your manager really carefully, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and ignore all the rest. Sounds like it sounds like

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good advice. And our final question, what is it

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<v Speaker 1>that you know about the world of investing today that

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<v Speaker 1>you wish you knew twenty something years ago when you

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<v Speaker 1>first began? Uh, that's a good question obviously by apples

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<v Speaker 1>the easy answer um, or by bitcoin you know when

1:06:56.560 --> 1:07:02.000
<v Speaker 1>it first come? Uh don't know? Or bitcoin at four thousand?

1:07:02.160 --> 1:07:03.680
<v Speaker 1>Or do you mean if you had a time machine

1:07:03.680 --> 1:07:06.440
<v Speaker 1>and could go by time machine? So that's an easy question.

1:07:06.520 --> 1:07:09.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm asking no time machine, no time machine. What do

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<v Speaker 1>you know today that you wish you knew back then?

1:07:13.280 --> 1:07:16.600
<v Speaker 1>That I get? Okay, great question. U. I learned every

1:07:16.760 --> 1:07:19.880
<v Speaker 1>hard knock investing lesson there is to learn, uh, And

1:07:20.040 --> 1:07:22.160
<v Speaker 1>so I could tell you not to do those things

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<v Speaker 1>like uh like don't confuse. Uh your your lucky pick

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<v Speaker 1>of a stock that went up with true skill. Uh,

1:07:29.360 --> 1:07:34.040
<v Speaker 1>don't sell when you feel the painful feeling in your gut.

1:07:34.560 --> 1:07:36.360
<v Speaker 1>Just buy and holding, never sell. But you wouldn't listen,

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<v Speaker 1>So UM, I guess it would be just buy things.

1:07:40.800 --> 1:07:43.320
<v Speaker 1>Selling things is where everything goes asunder. Just just buy

1:07:43.440 --> 1:07:46.200
<v Speaker 1>things and hold them, uh and sit on it forever.

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<v Speaker 1>Quite fascinating. We have been speaking with Matt Hogan. He

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<v Speaker 1>is the global strategist at bit Wise Asset Management, Global

1:07:57.000 --> 1:08:00.280
<v Speaker 1>head of Research. If you enjoy this conversation, well look

1:08:00.360 --> 1:08:02.840
<v Speaker 1>up an intro down an Inch on Apple iTunes and

1:08:02.960 --> 1:08:05.360
<v Speaker 1>you can see any of the other two hundred and

1:08:05.480 --> 1:08:09.560
<v Speaker 1>fifties such conversations we've had over the past five or

1:08:09.600 --> 1:08:14.520
<v Speaker 1>so years. Uh, you can find that at iTunes, Stitcher, overcast,

1:08:14.560 --> 1:08:18.519
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, wherever your final podcasts are sold. We

1:08:18.640 --> 1:08:22.160
<v Speaker 1>love your comments, feedback and suggestions right to us at

1:08:22.960 --> 1:08:26.320
<v Speaker 1>m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. I would be

1:08:26.400 --> 1:08:28.960
<v Speaker 1>remiss if I did not thank the crack staff that

1:08:29.040 --> 1:08:33.280
<v Speaker 1>helps put together this conversation each week. Carol and O'Brien

1:08:33.560 --> 1:08:39.120
<v Speaker 1>is my audio engineer. Par Excellent Medina Parwana is our producer.

1:08:39.600 --> 1:08:43.760
<v Speaker 1>Taylor Riggs is our booker slash producer. Atika vl Broun

1:08:44.280 --> 1:08:47.559
<v Speaker 1>is our project manager. Michael bat Nick is my head

1:08:47.600 --> 1:08:51.920
<v Speaker 1>of research. I'm Barry Retults. You've been listening to Masters

1:08:51.960 --> 1:09:01.560
<v Speaker 1>in Business on Bloomberg Radio Thinks