Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing
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Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on
Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. We've got a lot of
Speaker 1: stuff going on. Europe continues at least parts of year,
Speaker 1: pushing back on that Astra Zeneca vaccine. You've got Italy,
Speaker 1: that country facing a new lockdown one year after the
Speaker 1: pandemic started, and then President by last night putting out
Speaker 1: the fourth of July is maybe a moment where we
Speaker 1: can kind of get quote unquote back to normal, as
Speaker 1: long as you keep it in small groups. Yeah. I
Speaker 1: watched that last night to Carol, and one thing that
Speaker 1: really stuck out to me was the eligibility of people
Speaker 1: who were are able to get vaccines. Biden administration pushing
Speaker 1: for everyone every adult by May one, right, and I
Speaker 1: understand the prioritizing earlier on, and I think at this
Speaker 1: point people are like, it's so confusing. Can I go?
Speaker 1: Can I not? And just like kind of opening it up,
Speaker 1: let's get into it with one of our go to voices.
Speaker 1: Really when we always get a true gut check. Dr
Speaker 1: Ian LUs Bader, Clinical Professor of Medicine at n y
Speaker 1: U Landgown. He is on the phone in New York City.
Speaker 1: How are you hey, They're doing very well. Happy Friday, guys.
Speaker 1: Thank you for all your efforts over the past year
Speaker 1: with you know, sticking with the story and encouraging people
Speaker 1: and putting out good, good information. So well likewise to
Speaker 1: you as well. I really do mean it when I
Speaker 1: say when you come on, you know, we've thrown so
Speaker 1: much at you, and you just kind of you often
Speaker 1: ahead of the curve in terms of things that are
Speaker 1: going to be in the headlines next week and just
Speaker 1: really giving us again, just like you said to us,
Speaker 1: really smart information. So okay, So one year, first of all,
Speaker 1: take me back one year. I like, do you remember
Speaker 1: it like it was yesterday? I do remember it, and
Speaker 1: I think we uh we we talked about it. It
Speaker 1: uh was really devastating. The hospitals were overloaded, and the
Speaker 1: stock market was crashing and stores were closing. Uh the
Speaker 1: city was shut down, and you know, you could hit
Speaker 1: a hit a golf full or shoe a cannon down
Speaker 1: Madison Avenue and or Lexington where Bloomberg studios are and
Speaker 1: not hit anyone or anything. There wasn't a car or
Speaker 1: truck on the road. There wasn't a person in the street.
Speaker 1: So I think we've come a long long way. I
Speaker 1: agree with the President Biden at Hope really does seem brighter,
Speaker 1: and I agree. I think by July four a good
Speaker 1: majority of people will be vaccinated. Maybe we'll have those
Speaker 1: COVID passports, so people should feel free to you know,
Speaker 1: be going to restaurants if they've been vaccinated, and being
Speaker 1: in small groups. So I think we've made a lot
Speaker 1: of progress. A little concern about the variants. I think
Speaker 1: there is still a small chance of uh, of another wave,
Speaker 1: but I think we're making progress. I am just a
Speaker 1: little concerned because I still see in some patients some
Speaker 1: vaccine hesitancy, which worries me. Talk a little bit about that.
Speaker 1: I mean, is there a pattern emerging that you're seeing,
Speaker 1: You know, I think it's very variable. A lot of
Speaker 1: the physicians have had it, and I think um to
Speaker 1: some degree, there may be some socioeconomic issues. I think
Speaker 1: there are some people who are afraid of the vaccine
Speaker 1: or afraid of side effects. And every time on the
Speaker 1: news we hear now a little bit about the astros
Speaker 1: Eneca vaccine and in Europe and here with you know,
Speaker 1: some potential blood clots. But what I'd help patients for
Speaker 1: all of these vaccines take whatever is available. There's not
Speaker 1: one that's materially better than the other. J and J
Speaker 1: certainly convenient with one vaccine. But whenever you're vaccinating millions
Speaker 1: or hundreds of millions of people, there will always be
Speaker 1: reports about you know, death or in allergic reaction or
Speaker 1: a blood clot. Very hard to tease that out, because
Speaker 1: when you're vaccinating a lot of people, someone along the
Speaker 1: way is going to have a complication that's unrelated to
Speaker 1: the vaccine. It's just happens to be a day or
Speaker 1: two or three after they got a vaccine. People die,
Speaker 1: people get clots, other things happen. So we do need
Speaker 1: to look into it. I mean, there may be something there,
Speaker 1: but overall, it seems the vaccines have been very safe,
Speaker 1: very effective. Uh, And I think we need to push
Speaker 1: on ahead with it. What about, though, and Tim, what
Speaker 1: was the data you just were sharing with me about?
Speaker 1: Is it New York City positivity? So Mayor to Blasio
Speaker 1: tweeting this out earlier today. Six positivity rate for a
Speaker 1: seven day average. I mean, compared to January, that's pretty good,
Speaker 1: but compared to last fall and over the summer, that's
Speaker 1: not a good number. It's not a great number. Um
Speaker 1: And again, positivity doesn't that's positive tests doesn't necessarily mean
Speaker 1: hospitals are overloaded. They're not. There's a very stable number. Also,
Speaker 1: it doesn't necessarily mean kids should not be going back
Speaker 1: to school. I think they should. And a lot of
Speaker 1: this is arbitrary. If it's three percent or five percent
Speaker 1: or six percent positivity, you know, we need to get
Speaker 1: kids back in school. We need to get all the
Speaker 1: teachers vaccinated. There really no no reason not to do that.
Speaker 1: The restaurants are starting to open up. I would certainly say,
Speaker 1: you know, when you go flying these days, the planes
Speaker 1: are full, you don't know who's been vaccinated. Certainly, I
Speaker 1: think people who have been vaccinated UM should really be
Speaker 1: able to get priority for some of these things like restaurants.
Speaker 1: You know, if you show your card, you know, there
Speaker 1: should be very little hesitancy about going in and sitting down.
Speaker 1: That that's my sense. But I agree the numbers are
Speaker 1: slightly um up a bit, but I don't necessarily think
Speaker 1: that's translating into hospitalizations. In other words, more people may
Speaker 1: be having it, and probably many of them are being treated,
Speaker 1: and let's talk about it's maybe in the next segment.
Speaker 1: Who was some of the IVY monoclonal antibodies which worked
Speaker 1: very well. Dr les Beata. We're monitoring the President expected
Speaker 1: to make comments at any moment. We might have to
Speaker 1: tear away from this conversation. Having said that there's money
Speaker 1: in that massive COVID relief COVID stimulus package that includes
Speaker 1: money for states to deal with the costs of COVID UM,
Speaker 1: how do you think that might help some of the
Speaker 1: problems that we've seen in terms of the vaccine rollout. Well,
Speaker 1: I think you're a number of problems. One is certainly
Speaker 1: for a states that has spent a lot of money
Speaker 1: on hospitals, as we have here in the tri state area.
Speaker 1: That will certainly be helpful. You always have to think
Speaker 1: about the back end of printing all that money, what
Speaker 1: the consequences are. That's a different story. But when it
Speaker 1: comes to COVID, we really have to encourage everyone to
Speaker 1: get vaccinated. I agree totally with taking away any restrictions.
Speaker 1: You know, anyone over eighteen really should have it. And
Speaker 1: why because the longer it takes to get to hurt immunity,
Speaker 1: the more likely you're going to have viral application and
Speaker 1: resistant variants. So the idea is to try to get
Speaker 1: as many people vaccinated as soon as possible, and that
Speaker 1: will really prevent these potentially resistant mutations from occurring. Dr
Speaker 1: Let's say go ahead. So we need to do that,
Speaker 1: you know, as soon as possible. Now we are seeing
Speaker 1: some patients who are getting COVID sometimes in between their
Speaker 1: first and second vaccine. They do have to be careful
Speaker 1: and we have some very interesting new UH treatments. For example,
Speaker 1: if you have um COVID and you're in any one
Speaker 1: of the risk groups diabetes, high blood pressure, etcetera, we
Speaker 1: can give you an I V monoclonal antibody. You come
Speaker 1: into the hospital, you get one infusion takes twenty thirty minutes,
Speaker 1: very effective. That's made by Lily. We're working out some medications.
Speaker 1: Mark uh malneu previer is very effective at viral replications.
Speaker 1: So we definitely have treatment options, but the best of
Speaker 1: course is to get those vaccines in and we are
Speaker 1: capacity to give vaccines really exceeds the availability, so that's
Speaker 1: the limiting supply at the time. I'm really glad you
Speaker 1: brought up treatment because that's exactly where I wanted to
Speaker 1: go with my My next question, how are you seen
Speaker 1: treatment change throughout the pandemic where we were a year ago?
Speaker 1: And do we get to a point where, because we
Speaker 1: are going to be living with this, it's unlikely we're
Speaker 1: going to eradicate it that it becomes just in general
Speaker 1: treatable if somebody comes down with it. Well, absolutely, so
Speaker 1: we talked about it sort of the ideal medication like
Speaker 1: tamiflu also tamifere for the for influenza, or or some
Speaker 1: of the intranasal sprays. Now, Mark with Ridgeback Pharmaceuticals is
Speaker 1: working on a Phase two three on an oral anti
Speaker 1: viral that seems to be very effective. Originally it was
Speaker 1: being looked at for flu, but it seems very effective
Speaker 1: for coronavirus, so that's exciting, and some preliminary studies with
Speaker 1: about a patients do show that it's highly effective. So
Speaker 1: I think we are close to an oral medication which
Speaker 1: should be revolution very still, get your flu shot, get
Speaker 1: your COVID shot, so that that's great. And we have
Speaker 1: an I V monoclonal antibody that I've sent a number
Speaker 1: of patients for. They they they're symptomatic, they get a
Speaker 1: positive swab, they call I call uh you know NYU
Speaker 1: for example, And this is available in many medical centers. Uh.
Speaker 1: It's called ben lamb miview mab, which is great made
Speaker 1: by Lily and I V and monoclonal antibody cocktail and
Speaker 1: patients often feel better much sooner and prevents hospitalizations. So
Speaker 1: we definitely have better options um as opposed to a
Speaker 1: year ago, as Carol talked about where people would be
Speaker 1: overwhelming the hospitals, and we were guessing at things like
Speaker 1: steroids and REMD svere and you know, a whole host
Speaker 1: of things. So I think we've made a lot of progress,
Speaker 1: which is encouraging. Yeah, I feel like we've talked about
Speaker 1: all of those things. Hey, one thing going back to
Speaker 1: what the President said, and again we're monitoring for when
Speaker 1: he steps up to the podium at the White House
Speaker 1: and begins talking again. I just wonder the very ends. Uh.
Speaker 1: And you talked about a possible peak again. Could that
Speaker 1: throw off our returning to normalcy by summer in your view,
Speaker 1: I think that's the only thing that could derail a recovery,
Speaker 1: and it is a possibility, and I don't think we're
Speaker 1: out of the woods yet. But again, I think getting
Speaker 1: everyone vaccinated because at this point the vaccines do seem
Speaker 1: to have some efficacy against the variants, So I would say,
Speaker 1: let's get as many people vaccinated as possible, as soon
Speaker 1: as possible. But if we don't, absolutely that could derail
Speaker 1: things with a flare of a resistant variant, that would
Speaker 1: really set us back and would be uh, both an
Speaker 1: economic and I think psychologic shock. But so far the
Speaker 1: variants haven't shown to be resistant to the vaccines, right,
Speaker 1: exactly right. That's why I think it's important to to
Speaker 1: move ahead to reassure people. A bad vaccine hesitancy. People
Speaker 1: see in the news, the reports are from both on
Speaker 1: the Internet and elsewhere about potential complications, clots, etcetera. There's
Speaker 1: no data that any of these things are are significant
Speaker 1: or serious. They have to be looked into, and I
Speaker 1: think people should stop looking for excuses not to go
Speaker 1: come on in, let's open it up to everyone. Uh.
Speaker 1: And that's really the only way we will be able
Speaker 1: to put this behind us and have a relatively normal summer,
Speaker 1: which I think we should at the rate we are going.
Speaker 1: How key is that Alaska already opening up eligibility to
Speaker 1: all adults. New York City expected to do so by
Speaker 1: late April or early May. UM. How crucial is it
Speaker 1: that all states do that pretty quickly in order for
Speaker 1: us to really get and meet those targets by the President.
Speaker 1: I think it's key. I have so many people under
Speaker 1: age sixty five or sixty who are saying, when can
Speaker 1: I get it? I would love to get it, and
Speaker 1: unfortunately regulations say no. Uh. Some of them have medical issues,
Speaker 1: and then we're able to get them online at the
Speaker 1: Javit Center and other vaccination centers. But many are otherwise healthy,
Speaker 1: but they won't be unless they get vaccinated. So I
Speaker 1: think we need to get those vaccines from the government.
Speaker 1: You're from manufacturing to the government to the states, and
Speaker 1: for the states that then distributed to those vaccine centers,
Speaker 1: so we can really get people in and out. And
Speaker 1: the more people that are vaccinated and do well, the
Speaker 1: less vaccine hesitancy, because then everyone knows people who have
Speaker 1: had a vaccine and did fine, and then they're less
Speaker 1: afraid to go. Where are we now when it comes
Speaker 1: to vaccines and kids, Because if we do get to
Speaker 1: the point where everybody who's sixteen or eighteen and over
Speaker 1: can get the vaccine, that still leads a very large
Speaker 1: number of people in the US who are under that age,
Speaker 1: and we'll be able to get the vaccine. Great question.
Speaker 1: One of my patients asked me that question just earlier
Speaker 1: today about their kid who was under eighteen. The reason
Speaker 1: that we went for the older age group was because
Speaker 1: that was the group that had the highest complications, the
Speaker 1: highest death rate older age and symptoms and conditions such
Speaker 1: as obesity, hypertension, cop D. Most of the kids below
Speaker 1: eighteen death rates and complications were very, very low, So
Speaker 1: the feeling was look in a worst case if they
Speaker 1: get that, you know, they should have minimal post COVID syndrome. Uh.
Speaker 1: Most are not long haulers. Some have lost their smell,
Speaker 1: but most bounce back. Well, nevertheless, they are a reservoir
Speaker 1: of virus, So you're exactly right. Ultimately we should vaccinate everyone.
Speaker 1: The studies, the viral studies did not really look at
Speaker 1: that group, so we can't we can't really report on
Speaker 1: the safety data, but I think that group should be included,
Speaker 1: and we do need to to broaden out that. But
Speaker 1: certainly the highest risk groups are above eighteen. But you're
Speaker 1: exactly right. Unless you eventually vaccinate kind of potential reservoirs,
Speaker 1: it's going to be harder to really eradicate UH, these
Speaker 1: quiet pools of the virus. So I agree, eventually it's
Speaker 1: going to have to be opened up to everyone, and
Speaker 1: I think that will be done probably sometime after the summer.
Speaker 1: I do wonder to any entrees um strategy and getting
Speaker 1: ahead of COVID. It's not just thinking about your nation,
Speaker 1: but it's thinking about the world, right because there's no
Speaker 1: real clear borders when it comes to the virus UH,
Speaker 1: and major developed countries need to think about making sure
Speaker 1: that there are vaccines for UH, those emerging economies, those
Speaker 1: who maybe don't have such quick access to vaccines. You're
Speaker 1: exactly right that, yes, we definitely need to get our
Speaker 1: country vaccinated, that will be protective. But unless the world
Speaker 1: gets immunized, you will have these pockets in isolated areas
Speaker 1: that good could potentially have that viral replication and mutations
Speaker 1: which could be resistant. So, yes, this, like smallpox, really
Speaker 1: has to be a worldwide effort. Uh, And I think
Speaker 1: we did it with smallpox. We should be able to
Speaker 1: do it with COVID, but it is taking a bit
Speaker 1: of time. Nevertheless, you know, we've come become a tremendous
Speaker 1: distance in one year, really amazing, from no vaccine and
Speaker 1: very few treatments. Uh. We still have a long way
Speaker 1: to go, but I think we've made great progress. And
Speaker 1: you're right, it has to be a global effort. Hey,
Speaker 1: what does that mean for the development of vaccine in
Speaker 1: the future. We were able to do this so quickly,
Speaker 1: I say we as if I had any part to
Speaker 1: do with it. No, I had nothing to do with it.
Speaker 1: The doctors, the scientists, the health care professionals, and I'd
Speaker 1: certainly appreciate them. But what does it mean for how
Speaker 1: quickly we're able to do this? Does this bode you know,
Speaker 1: bode well for treatment of cancer and other viruses? Absolutely?
Speaker 1: You know the message your RNA technique, which is the
Speaker 1: Maderna ampviser vaccines. Not that the other ones are not
Speaker 1: very effective. They use a different technique with a with
Speaker 1: a viral vector, other approaches, but the m RNA that
Speaker 1: can be tweaked I think is amazing. And I think
Speaker 1: that technique. And just quickly, because we're gonna have to
Speaker 1: go to the president, just quick wrap up. Huge, great potential, Tim,
Speaker 1: great potential. All right, for great weekend, forgive us, forgive us,
Speaker 1: uh Ian last better, Thank you so much. You're listening
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick
Speaker 1: Takes Tim Stinovik on Bloomberg Radio. So here we are
Speaker 1: one year later. Yes, progress since the outbreak, and yet
Speaker 1: the US is still charting the long way back to normal. Tim, Yeah,
Speaker 1: And and charts are the theme of the day or
Speaker 1: the theme of the piece. When it comes to Olivia
Speaker 1: Rockman and colleagues latest piece on the US economy and
Speaker 1: the aftermath of the surges, I won't say the aftermath
Speaker 1: of the pandemic by any means, but where we are
Speaker 1: in the recovery. She's Bloomberg News US Economy reporter joins
Speaker 1: us on the phone from New York City. It is
Speaker 1: so hard for me, Olivia to choose one single chart
Speaker 1: from this to focus on. So I'm going to ask
Speaker 1: you to do the hard work here. What is one
Speaker 1: chart in your piece that tells the story of the
Speaker 1: recovery from a year ago? And for a radio folks,
Speaker 1: we're gonna put post it so you get a little
Speaker 1: bit of a vision as well, and check it out
Speaker 1: on YouTube because some of these pick these charts will
Speaker 1: come up. Hi, thanks for having me. In terms of
Speaker 1: the charts that we've covered, I think the jobs market
Speaker 1: is maybe the most important, given that it's the one
Speaker 1: that still had the most progress to be had last year.
Speaker 1: We lost about twenty two million jobs in March and
Speaker 1: April and we're still only halfway back to recovering those
Speaker 1: and that's of course the metric that's lifted up closely
Speaker 1: by both the Treasury and sent Cheer Powell. And so
Speaker 1: it's going to continue to be a huge conversation going
Speaker 1: into the rest of this year. Okay, so I can
Speaker 1: explain this chart for and and do it. Try to
Speaker 1: do it justice because we're talking on the radio here,
Speaker 1: But it shows an absolute jump and unemployment when the
Speaker 1: pandemic was declared all the way up to a whopping
Speaker 1: twenty two point nine percent and then coming down to
Speaker 1: just about eleven point one percent. Uh. This is the
Speaker 1: the US rate of unemployment and underemployment, so different than UM.
Speaker 1: The headline figures that we see what else were you
Speaker 1: focusing on when you think about the recovery here? What
Speaker 1: are some important metrics that we need to keep in
Speaker 1: mind and also explain a little bit because there's been disconnect,
Speaker 1: a huge disconnect between Wall Street in Main Street, right,
Speaker 1: so looking at the flip side of the job sector
Speaker 1: of the economy. Housing on the other hand, has been
Speaker 1: extremely strong thanks to low borrowing rates, and so we
Speaker 1: see that existing home sales and new home sales as
Speaker 1: well as just mortgage refinancing is skyrocketing and has been
Speaker 1: extremely strong. Now to your point about this K shape
Speaker 1: recovery that we often talk about, evictions are up massively
Speaker 1: UM in the last year, and that's mostly because renters
Speaker 1: as opposed to homeowners, are having a really hard time.
Speaker 1: And again many of the renters are people that have
Speaker 1: lost their jobs. Well, and another chart, I mean, listen,
Speaker 1: it all goes back to yeah, I think the jobs
Speaker 1: one is such a big one, but you do break
Speaker 1: it down restaurants and bars. Listen, Olivia. We have talked
Speaker 1: about that so much over the past twelve twelve months,
Speaker 1: talked to a lot of the well known chefs here
Speaker 1: in the New York metro area. I mean they were
Speaker 1: just shut down, and you guys have a chart on that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's right. So restaurants actually have been, you know, kind
Speaker 1: of stagnant since the initial reopenings in the summer. That said,
Speaker 1: many economists are optimistic that restaurant sales will found that quickly,
Speaker 1: especially in the next couple of months as the weather
Speaker 1: warms and vaccinations pick up um. But on the other hand,
Speaker 1: we have these COVID variants that remain a risk as
Speaker 1: well as just consumer confidence in terms of their health
Speaker 1: concerns about going out. So one of the charts in
Speaker 1: here that I think could be familiar to a lot
Speaker 1: of people who have been following this story is the
Speaker 1: one that shows the rich getting absolutely so much richer
Speaker 1: during this pandemic. When the pandemic was declared, the wealth,
Speaker 1: the net worth of the world's wealthiest people absolutely jumped
Speaker 1: in the last year up to two point seven trillion
Speaker 1: dollars from just about one point six trillion dollars last March.
Speaker 1: What's the story there. Well, we've seen in the stock
Speaker 1: market that the you know, stocks that have performed extremely well,
Speaker 1: or in the tech industry, and you know, many of
Speaker 1: the wealthiest people are either videos of those companies or
Speaker 1: have stakes in those companies, and so they have done
Speaker 1: extremely well. Now, on the other hand, the services sector
Speaker 1: has been extremely hard hit, and so that's why we see,
Speaker 1: you know, this extreme amount of job loss and poverty elsewhere. Yeah, listen,
Speaker 1: these are charts to tell the story of the past year.
Speaker 1: Uh And I just put it up on Twitter. If
Speaker 1: folks want to get a little bit of a deeper
Speaker 1: dive into it and check it out. Olivia, Thank you
Speaker 1: so much, Olivia Rockman. She's Bloomberg News US economy reporter
Speaker 1: on the phone in New York City. But you know,
Speaker 1: when you break it down to him, this tells so much.
Speaker 1: It does. I mean, it's a tale of two different economies. Absolutely. Journal. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you let me drive. No, no, no, please, I
Speaker 1: don't want to drive. Question. Try trying, job. This is
Speaker 1: the drive to the globe coming. Thanks, We'll try us.
Speaker 1: Dawn on Bloomberg Radio. All right, just got about eleven
Speaker 1: minutes left in today's trading session, and Charlie was breaking
Speaker 1: down some of those equity numbers. We are just about
Speaker 1: at our hounds of the session after some selling earlier
Speaker 1: on up about three one point on the Dow, the
Speaker 1: S and p U about just about three. Call it flat,
Speaker 1: NAZAC still lower, but definitely off. It's loads of the session.
Speaker 1: What a week it has been. Let's get into a
Speaker 1: Nancy Prile, she's co CEO and senior portfolio manager at
Speaker 1: Essex Essex Investment Management with us on the phone from Chicago. Nancy,
Speaker 1: good to have you here. How are you and what
Speaker 1: do you make kind of the trade this week? Because
Speaker 1: there's been volatility and yet we're ending up with some
Speaker 1: pretty decent gains for the overall equ markets. Exactly well,
Speaker 1: we are seeing a much increased level of volatility, although
Speaker 1: still you know, not crazy, based on both the very
Speaker 1: sharp rides that we've seen an interest rate as well
Speaker 1: as what we think is a rotation away from many
Speaker 1: of the names that were big winners last year, the
Speaker 1: work from home shelter in place names into those types
Speaker 1: of stocks and names that are more exposed to the
Speaker 1: incredible cyclical recovery that we're starting to see the economy
Speaker 1: enter into. And I think the strength that we're seeing
Speaker 1: today in particular, is really reflecting the stimulus that's coming
Speaker 1: with the signing of the one point nine trillion dollar
Speaker 1: package that is ten of US GDP that's going to
Speaker 1: be added to this economy to further drive revenue and
Speaker 1: earnings growth as well as jobs and wages. Well, but
Speaker 1: do you think you know it's interesting or Dave Wilson
Speaker 1: earlier talked about UM Big of America's research out to
Speaker 1: that compared the S and p U cyclical stocks with
Speaker 1: defensive shares UM which are of course relatively unaffected by
Speaker 1: economic swings, and whether or not we're starting to see
Speaker 1: maybe the cyclical stocks maybe have kind of run their
Speaker 1: course because they've had quite a bounce back off their
Speaker 1: lows already. Um, how does that factor into what you
Speaker 1: just said? Though, Well, we think that although the cyclical
Speaker 1: stocks have had a big run, and this isn't blanket
Speaker 1: on all cyclical stocks or all growth stocks, but if
Speaker 1: you look at where the revenue growth and earnings growth
Speaker 1: is going to be the greatest over the next couple
Speaker 1: of quarters where the margin expansion possibilities and therefore the
Speaker 1: expanse the opportunity for significant earning surprises, as well as
Speaker 1: where the ownership lies. In these stocks, cyclicals, more value
Speaker 1: oriented stocks, and smaller top stocks in general are still
Speaker 1: very under owned broadly compared to the large Camp naz
Speaker 1: BAC one hundred or the large Camp Fang stocks that
Speaker 1: have been driving the averages over really the last ten years.
Speaker 1: So we still think there is significant room to go,
Speaker 1: that this first six months of out performance is just
Speaker 1: setting a stage for what could be a multi year period.
Speaker 1: Frankly about performance. So Nancy talked to us about some
Speaker 1: of the stocks that you like. So what we like
Speaker 1: to do, it's find companies that have secular growth trends,
Speaker 1: big total available markets. But we want to find companies
Speaker 1: that are benefiting from those growth trends in a way
Speaker 1: that has not yet been fully recognized in the prices
Speaker 1: of stock. What that means is sometimes we'll find suppliers
Speaker 1: into a growth industry as opposed to investing in the
Speaker 1: name brand players. So everybody knows about tesla an e VS.
Speaker 1: We particularly like a company called Vistia on the ticker
Speaker 1: is CC, which is an automobile equipment supplier. They sell
Speaker 1: UM heads up displays that are an important part of
Speaker 1: both autonomous driving as well as infotainment systems. GM is
Speaker 1: a big customer of theirs, and they will be integrated
Speaker 1: into GM's new autonomous EV vehicles that they're about to
Speaker 1: come out with. And as we know, GM has said
Speaker 1: their entire police going to go EV like or they're
Speaker 1: about So that's the kind of name that we think
Speaker 1: is very exciting. Another hey, wait, wait, they've been on
Speaker 1: a tear. They run a tear. Certainly last year big
Speaker 1: bounce back, uh and even the year before up forty
Speaker 1: about in valuations or anything. Everything feels comfortable to you,
Speaker 1: we think so. Yeah, we think we are very early
Speaker 1: in First of all, we're very early in the use
Speaker 1: of technology and the changing of technology and autobiles. We
Speaker 1: know what the automobile company saying about the shortage of
Speaker 1: semi conductors. This is really disruptive. And so the stock
Speaker 1: does not look particularly cheap on this year's earnings. You
Speaker 1: think this year's earnings are probably low, but if you
Speaker 1: look out a couple of years, the stock is very cheap.
Speaker 1: We think it could potentially double from here over the
Speaker 1: next couple of years as they continue to gain penetration
Speaker 1: and importantly as other players in the e V market
Speaker 1: gay market share. So let's talk a little bit about
Speaker 1: about the cloud and digital transformation. Domo is a company
Speaker 1: that is on your list as well. Um, why are
Speaker 1: you excited about Demo? So we really like Domo here
Speaker 1: that actually justin asked their quarter last night. It was
Speaker 1: a very strong quarter. They beat, they raised, growth accelerated. Particularly,
Speaker 1: they're what they call a r R which is annualized
Speaker 1: recurring revenue, which grew twenty eight percent in the quarter.
Speaker 1: Domo is a company that provides business analytics software. Now,
Speaker 1: there are a lot of players in that business. You
Speaker 1: like about do Mo is one they're moving from small
Speaker 1: medium sized business up to enterprise. And two, very importantly,
Speaker 1: their products are optimized for mobility and they are designed
Speaker 1: so that it pushes the ability to use this business
Speaker 1: analytics software down to a much lower level. So it's
Speaker 1: not just the specialist software. It's really a software that
Speaker 1: generalists can use as well to do the data analysis
Speaker 1: and business intelligent work that is so important to companies today.
Speaker 1: This is a part of technology spending that was actually
Speaker 1: under some pressure last year during the pandemic and is
Speaker 1: now starting to come on very strong. So the stocks
Speaker 1: put about seven times revenues, maybe not cheap on an
Speaker 1: absolute basis, but extraordinarily Chiefs compared to other high value,
Speaker 1: current revenue software companies, and we're seeing, you know, pretty
Speaker 1: tremendous earnings growth. It's not profitable, but is this a company.
Speaker 1: It's a pretty small market cap almost just under two billion.
Speaker 1: Is this a take out for an Oracle or somebody else?
Speaker 1: Just quickly? So it could be, but we actually think
Speaker 1: that um, they have such a wide open marketplace in
Speaker 1: their own right that this company can grow into a
Speaker 1: ten or fifteen or twenty billion market caps. They can
Speaker 1: keep the growth rate up, and so we prefer to
Speaker 1: see get not yet taken out on its alright, alright,
Speaker 1: gonna leave it there. Hey, listen, have a good weekend. Nancy,
Speaker 1: appreciate it. Nancy Pryle, she's co chief executive officer and
Speaker 1: senior portfolio manager at Essex Investment Management, joining us on
Speaker 1: the phone from Chicago. That cloud space. I just feel
Speaker 1: like it's a million companies out there. Yeah it is.
Speaker 1: And look this is a small one with a relatively
Speaker 1: small market cap. Especially when you think of the big players. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean the ones who dominate the space like Amazon
Speaker 1: and more right, which means maybe, and we know the
Speaker 1: clouds growing potential for incredible growth, like she says, but
Speaker 1: I do always wonder if there's that take out play
Speaker 1: within it. Um, just got a few minutes left in
Speaker 1: the training day. Yeah, it's Friday. It's Friday, and we're
Speaker 1: gonna end on an up note, So a bullish because
Speaker 1: those stocks are gonna pretty much end at their best
Speaker 1: levels of this set. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.
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