1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner, 2 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: and today we'll take a deep dive into the reported 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: merger talks between Nissan and Honda. We'll be hearing from 4 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: Nissan's former chairman Carlos Gohn. But first we want to 5 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: take a look at the market landscape on this holiday 6 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 1: shortened trading week. Joining me now is Adam Cohones. He 7 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: is the chief investment officer at Winthrop Capital Management. Joining 8 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: from Indianapolis, Adam, It's always a pleasure. I guess the 9 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,559 Speaker 1: big story last week was the change of heart on 10 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: the part of the Fed. Looks as though they are 11 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: only penciling in two rate cuts for the new year, 12 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: as opposed to their prior forecast of four. Did that 13 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: come as a big surprise to you? 14 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:44,879 Speaker 2: For us, it did not. 15 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 3: We've been in the camp kind of on the lower 16 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 3: end of cuts pretty much all year long, and it's 17 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 3: really coming on the heels of the economic data just 18 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 3: isn't pointing to a reason for the Fed to move 19 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 3: towards stimulus. You know, when you're looking at kind of 20 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 3: that monetary stimulus idea, there's still enough fiscal stimulus to 21 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 3: keep the economy going, and that's represented the fact that 22 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:17,040 Speaker 3: you know, inflation still is maintaining above that two percent target, 23 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 3: So that's obviously playing into it. And the labor market, 24 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:24,960 Speaker 3: while has weakened throughout the summer, by no means is 25 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 3: it weak. So I think when you look at the 26 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 3: US economy, it's still relatively strong, and so that just 27 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 3: doesn't really create the narrative that the Fed would need 28 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 3: to have an aggressive easing cycle. So until that happens, 29 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:43,679 Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a hard case for 30 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 3: them to cut more than you know, two or three 31 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 3: times next year. 32 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: It's been a very unusual situation for the bond market. 33 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 1: The Fed adopts a path of less aggressive easing. I 34 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: think back in September, right, so we have in that 35 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: period of time seventy five bases points in a higher 36 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 1: yield for the ten year. That seems a little counterintuitive. 37 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 1: How are you playing the bond market these days? 38 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,679 Speaker 2: Well, you know, this whole last year was quite a 39 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 2: volatile year for. 40 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 3: Bonds, and it really came on, Like I said that, 41 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 3: that idea that you know, if you think back to 42 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 3: kind of this time last year, the beginning of twenty 43 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:29,239 Speaker 3: twenty four, the expectation of rate cuts was quite significant. 44 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 3: I mean, at one point, you know, the markets were 45 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 3: pricing in seven cuts, maybe eight, and obviously we didn't 46 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 3: get that. So the bond market has continually tried to 47 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 3: front run Fed the Fed's decision and continually gotten it wrong. 48 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 3: And so I think that's why we've seen such a 49 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 3: whipsaw in interest rates, particularly on the long end, because 50 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 3: you know, as the FED and well, I guess really 51 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 3: comes down to as the data has proven that the 52 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 3: economy is stronger than I expected, that obviously kind of 53 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 3: lifts inflation, lifts growth, and so you would naturally see 54 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:07,559 Speaker 3: real interest. 55 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 2: Rates be higher. And so I think that's kind of 56 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 2: what's playing through. At the end of the day. Though 57 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 2: we still really like bonds right now, even. 58 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 3: Though there's a little bit of a heightened volatility. We 59 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 3: do see this as a point in time. We don't 60 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 3: know how long it's going to last. But I continue 61 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,679 Speaker 3: to use the phrase, this is the most asymmetric you 62 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 3: risk to reward investment you can kind of have right now, 63 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 3: where the risk of rates going much higher is fairly low. 64 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 3: And so your other two scenarios are the rates kind 65 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 3: of stay in this choppy frontier that it's in between 66 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 3: four four and a half, and I'm happy to clip 67 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 3: that coupon. And then if we do see rates come 68 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 3: down and I get that price appreciation of bonds, and 69 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 3: you know that's the other scenario. So two out of 70 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 3: three scenarios, I feel really confident in that that's a 71 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 3: good strategy as an anchor for a portfolio. And like 72 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 3: I said that, the probability of interest rates going much 73 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 3: higher from here and you know that deteriorating my bond 74 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 3: position is fairly low right now. So that is why 75 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 3: is one of our highest eviction trades. 76 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 1: So, Adam, I'm wondering whether there is some sort of 77 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: risk about the economic policies that we're going to be 78 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 1: getting from the Trump administration will prove to be inflationary, 79 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: and whether that's a concern. Last week, FED Chair Powell 80 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 1: seem to suggest some on the FED maybe are a 81 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 1: little concerned about that, although last week we heard from 82 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 1: the head of the San Francisco Fed, Mary Daily, and 83 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: she told us no, the data will determine FED policy. 84 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 1: But for the sake of argument, let's assume inflation does 85 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: prove more stubborn and the FED adopts a strategy of 86 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: keeping rates on hold for a while. If that becomes 87 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: kind of a persistent notion, is there the risk then 88 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 1: that the next move on the part of the Fed 89 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 1: becomes a rate hike. 90 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 3: Well, I think a hike is a very low probability, 91 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 3: but it continued pause, I think is a growing possibility. 92 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 3: And I think you hit the nail on the head 93 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 3: here is that the FED and I think investors in 94 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:03,159 Speaker 3: general should kind of move slowly right now, because while 95 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 3: we do know what a Trump presidency looks like, we've 96 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 3: been here before, there are some unknowns right now and 97 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 3: kind of how those policy changes will affect the economy 98 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 3: and then therefore the market. And so yes, I think 99 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 3: it does make sense that the FED would ease back, 100 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 3: slow down, and because the last thing is it's actually 101 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 3: more detrimental if they were to cut aggressively and then 102 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 3: because policy leads to inflation, then have to change their 103 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 3: policy and increase interest rates suddenly. So I think the 104 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:39,479 Speaker 3: idea of kind of pausing, moving slowly assessing what kind 105 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 3: of inflationary pressures the you know, the fiscal side has 106 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 3: on the economy is a smart move. And I think 107 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 3: that is kind of the unknown I don't think it's 108 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 3: going to be a story where we're going to see 109 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:54,719 Speaker 3: significant inflation. I think that there are a lot of 110 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 3: offsets when we talk about tariffs, and to say that 111 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 3: that's necessarily going to just be outright inflationary. At the 112 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 3: end of the day, consumers have to make choices, and consumers, 113 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 3: you know, they are somewhat tapped out when you look 114 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 3: at credit card usage and other metrics. If we did 115 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 3: see higher prices because of tariffs, I don't think that 116 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 3: means that they're necessarily going to. 117 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 2: Keep spending at that high rate. 118 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 3: I think you're probably going to see is that's going 119 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 3: to lead to the economy starting to roll over, where 120 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 3: consumers then have to start making decisions to not spend, 121 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 3: and so that might be the real effect of terrorists 122 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 3: rather than inflation. But all of that's you know, it's 123 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 3: too soon to tell, and really we don't even know 124 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 3: what the policies are going to be. We're speculating on 125 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 3: all of it. So that's when it makes sense to 126 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 3: just move slow. 127 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: Fair point, although we do know a little bit, maybe 128 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,720 Speaker 1: there is less in the way of regulation, maybe there 129 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 1: are lower taxes, and maybe tariffs come to be I 130 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 1: don't know whether that's a negotiating strategy or not. We'll 131 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: have to wait and see. To your point, there's a 132 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: lot that we don't know. One of the things that 133 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 1: we do know is that twenty twenty four has been 134 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: a phenomenal year for megacap tech. I think the Nasdaq 135 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 1: one hundred is up more than twenty six percent so 136 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 1: far this year. We don't have that many days left 137 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, and so far as trading is concerned, 138 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: if you kind of look into the crystal ball for 139 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, will tech still be kind of a 140 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 1: predominant category? 141 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 3: I do, and my crystal ball I'm speculating. I think 142 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 3: that tech will continue to do fairly well in the 143 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 3: first half of twenty twenty five. I think the momentum 144 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:32,679 Speaker 3: carries them through the narrative around AI. We're still seeing 145 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 3: some positivity with breakthroughs there. I think that momentum continues. 146 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 3: What worries means the back half of twenty five and 147 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 3: not trying to time that in any way, so I 148 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 3: am more moving more defensively in the space, but I 149 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 3: do think it will, at least. 150 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 2: I said, in the front half of the year. 151 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 3: I think we continue this momentum, I don't see anything 152 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 3: getting in its way in the near term. It's really 153 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 3: the kind of beyond that scope that I can see 154 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 3: that gives me a little bit of worry and pause. 155 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: How are you viewing markets outside the US right now? 156 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 1: Are there opportunities offshore? 157 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 3: To be honest with you, it is one of the 158 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 3: most difficult times for me to invest outside of the US. 159 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 3: And it's not because I don't want to. I like 160 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 3: the India China story. I think that there are opportunities 161 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 3: to be had there at some point. But for me, 162 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 3: one of the biggest things that I watch is the 163 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 3: Dollar Index. The Dixie is my main metric there and 164 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 3: one hundred on that index is kind of my line 165 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:40,079 Speaker 3: in the sand. And the dollar has remained really strong. 166 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 3: I think we're one of six one o seven on 167 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 3: that index right now, and as long as it remains 168 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 3: above one hundred, it just makes it difficult for me 169 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 3: to want to invest abroad because of all the reasons 170 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 3: that come from that strong dollar. To weigh down that, 171 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 3: you know, the pay repayment of debt and whatnot, It 172 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 3: just it makes it difficult. So I think until us 173 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 3: to see the dollar week in a little bit against 174 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,199 Speaker 3: some of those currencies, which I think that's going to 175 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 3: be a difficult thing to do in itself. 176 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 2: And then obviously we have these terrorists to worry about. 177 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 3: I think I've just kind of kind of stay on 178 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 3: the sidelines and wait until the right opportunity. I'm okay 179 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 3: being late to that party rather than you know, just 180 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:19,439 Speaker 3: jumping in and feeling a lot of pain. 181 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,679 Speaker 1: So if you're fairly positive on the first six months 182 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: or so of twenty twenty five, what might precipitate a 183 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: little bit of corrective behavior? If the equity market does 184 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: remain fairly strong, is there something that you see on 185 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: the horizon that could create some weakness. 186 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 3: Well, I think it comes down to the consumer, and 187 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 3: that's been what's helped the markets the economy stay very 188 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:48,839 Speaker 3: resilient here in the US is that the consumer's ability 189 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 3: to spend has continued. 190 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 2: To be strong. 191 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 3: And I think a lot of that is what I 192 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,960 Speaker 3: just mentioned is we've obviously seen some level inflation on 193 00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 3: the wage side as well. 194 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 2: That's sticky, and those goods that we. 195 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 3: Have been buying, you know, abroad, at a cheaper it's 196 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 3: even cheaper when the US dollar a is strong right. 197 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 3: So I think that's what's been the untold story of 198 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 3: why the consumers remained quite resilient. And so I think 199 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 3: the flip side of that is if tariffs do start 200 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 3: to clamp down on okay, US consumers just it is 201 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 3: more expensive to purchase and so therefore they just don't 202 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 3: that would obviously slow the economy. And I think if 203 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 3: we start to see that, I think we are kind 204 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 3: of a little bit of a tinderbox right now where 205 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 3: it wouldn't take. 206 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:33,320 Speaker 2: Much to break it. 207 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 3: And so that's my worry is that the consumer is 208 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 3: that that's that kind of final straw, and we start 209 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 3: to see employment deteriorate further, that's what would be the 210 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 3: catalyst for markets and volatility to go awrye in the 211 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 3: back half of twenty five. 212 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 1: Adam will leave it there. It's always a pleasure. Wishing 213 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: you the best for the holidays. Adam Koons is the 214 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 1: chief investment officer at Winthrop Capital Management, joining from Indianapolis 215 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: here on the Bloomberg Daybreak AS podcast. Welcome back to 216 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. Nissan and 217 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:16,080 Speaker 1: Honda are working on a merger that would create a 218 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: rival to Toyota in Japan. The Japanese broadcaster NHK reports 219 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: the automakers are aiming to reach a final agreement in June. However, 220 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: the former chairman of Nissan is calling it a desperate move. 221 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: Carlos Goon says it reflects the panic mode at Nissan. 222 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 1: Goan was the architect of the Renault Nissan alliance some 223 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: twenty five years ago, and he is currently suing Nissan 224 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 1: for a billion dollars in a defamation suit following his 225 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:46,079 Speaker 1: arrest in Japan in November twenty eighteen on charges of 226 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 1: financial misconduct, which he denies. After his arrest in Japan, 227 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:54,719 Speaker 1: Goon escaped to Lebanon, and here he is speaking exclusively 228 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: with Bloomberg's Manis Cranny from Beirut. 229 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 4: Nissan Honda, Nissan Nissan going after Honda. Is this a 230 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 4: pragmatic deal, Carlos or a desperate roll of the dice? 231 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 5: Now, in my opinion, it's a desperate move. It's not 232 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 5: a pragmatic deal because, frankly, the synergies between the two companies. 233 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 6: Are difficult to find. 234 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 5: There is practically no complementarity between the two companies that 235 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,679 Speaker 5: are on the same markets. They are the same products. 236 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 5: The brands are very very similar, so in a certain way, 237 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 5: from one side, Nissan, it's a desperate move to. 238 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 6: Try to find the future. 239 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 5: And from the other side, Honda, which if I understand 240 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 5: well that we're not very excited about this move, but 241 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 5: you know you have to count with METI in Japan. 242 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 5: That mean the Meki had a big had the big 243 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 5: say into it. So at the end of the day, 244 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 5: they're trying to figure out something that could marry the 245 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 5: short term problems of Nissan and the long term vision 246 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 5: of Honda. 247 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 4: Do you think Nissan is being put do you think 248 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 4: is being pushed into this deal by the Economy ministry? 249 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:06,719 Speaker 4: There's politics pushing this deal Carus rather than the. 250 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 2: Value of the deal. 251 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 6: Without any doubt. 252 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 5: For me, that mean, having lived in Japan for so 253 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 5: many years, I understand how influence can the mad TV 254 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 5: and I can tell you that mean from all the 255 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 5: data that they received about the performance of Nissan, which 256 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 5: has been miserable for the last at least for the 257 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 5: last two to three years. They have cash problem, they 258 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 5: have investment problems. They're being really hammered in the United States. 259 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 5: They got practically out of Europe. They're being challenged in 260 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 5: China and there is no plan in front of it. 261 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 5: So I can tell you that means there is panic 262 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 5: mode inside Nissan. 263 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 2: Well, they're in panic mode. 264 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 4: And then it then push pushes the idea that there's 265 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 4: the economy Ministry, as you say, are and do whatever 266 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 4: it takes moment for Nissan. 267 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, well there is in my opinion, there is no 268 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:01,200 Speaker 5: industrial logic to it. But as you know, there is 269 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 5: a moment where you have to. 270 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 6: Choose between performance and control. 271 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 5: Obviously, if you can have both, it's the better, but 272 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 5: there are moments where you have to choose, and without 273 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 5: any doubt, with the Meki and everything I know from it, 274 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 5: they prefer control on performance. So they pushed Honda into 275 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 5: the deal without any doubt. 276 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 4: Well, with that in mind, then Carlos, what kind of backstops? 277 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 4: I mean, you've dealt with the Japanese, You've dealt with Nissan. 278 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 4: You understand that the metrics to get these organizations together. 279 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 4: Is the government going to have to deliver backstops to 280 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 4: Honda to make this deal work? 281 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 2: No? 282 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 5: I think that they in a certain way try to 283 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 5: push Honda onto this deal. Obviously Honda must have some 284 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 5: kind of benefit out of it, if not on the 285 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 5: short term, at least on the mid and the long term, 286 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 5: but that will be closely monitored to make sure that 287 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 5: the impact on the Japanese society is not going to 288 00:14:58,160 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 5: be too big, because you know, when you have to 289 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 5: companies of this size and practically in the same market 290 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 5: with practically the same strengths and the same weaknesses, uh 291 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 5: the they're gonna be a lot of costs to be 292 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 5: taken out, and they're gonna be a lot of duplication 293 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 5: to be taken out. So this is gonna be closely 294 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 5: monitored by the By the met you dited. 295 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 4: The synergies are there, though. 296 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 5: Well, I can tell you that, I mean it's it's 297 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 5: on the short term. I don't see too much synergy. 298 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 5: Obviously you go to the classical one, which is purchasing 299 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 5: together to try to leverage a better scale. But this 300 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 5: is something that Nissan has done with Renal successfully into 301 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 5: the in the past, except that at this moment it's 302 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 5: really concentrated in Japan. It's a it's three Japanese company 303 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 5: which have very similar products. The image of the brand 304 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 5: are not very different from one to the other. I'm 305 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 5: including Mitsubishi into into it, So it's gonna be very tough, 306 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 5: but the long term they can save on future investment 307 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 5: by doing the investment one time in technology, doing it 308 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 5: one time and sharing it with three companies. 309 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 4: Let's just press a little bit more on this. It's 310 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 4: going to be tough, as you say, to get the synergies. 311 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 4: Is it's driven by the Ministry of Economy. So there's 312 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 4: a political dynamic to this. 313 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 2: Is this japan. 314 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 4: Creating putting two companies together to really try and stand 315 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 4: up to the competition from China? Is that part of 316 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 4: the narrative here. 317 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 5: Callers, without any doubt, it makes a lot of logic. 318 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 5: Today the Chinese auto maker are on the winning side. 319 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 5: They are they became, as you know, the largest exporter 320 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 5: of cars, they are the largest maker of ev they 321 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 5: are being successful in a lot of new technology. They're 322 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,600 Speaker 5: doing fine cars. So in a certain way, yes, it's 323 00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 5: a defensive mode. It's a defensive mode that's going to 324 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 5: be trying to shore up the Japanese industry and avoiding 325 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 5: a cataclysm, first social cataclysm in in Japan and particularly 326 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:11,239 Speaker 5: to try to reinforce uh these companies on the on 327 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 5: the foreign markets. 328 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 4: Fox Corn have put on paused their interest in participating 329 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 4: in the steel car lost. They had a meeting with Reno. 330 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 4: It obviously didn't go according to what they wanted. Is 331 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:24,880 Speaker 4: there only a japan solution for this? Is there only 332 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:29,640 Speaker 4: a Japanese savior for Nissan in your view? 333 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:32,679 Speaker 5: I don't see him for the moment, obviously, in the 334 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 5: in the team existing today at Nissan. Usually you can 335 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 5: measure the team by the results they get. You know, 336 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 5: that's the only way you know if somebody is capable 337 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 5: of doing something. Frankly, when you look at the last 338 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:49,439 Speaker 5: five years, the results are not a good testimony of 339 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 5: the strengths of the of the team. Will there be 340 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 5: a savior? 341 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 6: I don't know. 342 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 5: I know how tough it is going to be because 343 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 5: you need to understand that Honda is an engineering organization. 344 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:01,360 Speaker 6: It's it's very strong. 345 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 5: In engineering, and Nissan is very proud of its own engineering. 346 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 5: So the battles here to try to decide what technology 347 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 5: is going to be adopted by the new company or 348 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 5: by if it's a merger, or by the new alliance. 349 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 5: I can tell you it's going to be very tough. 350 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 5: I've been dealing with this for many years. I remember 351 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 5: when we took control of Mitsubishi. Mitsubishi was not afraid 352 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 5: of the collaboration with Renal. They were afraid of the 353 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,679 Speaker 5: collaboration of Nissan because they know how tough it's going 354 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 5: to be when engineers meet together, and there is this 355 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 5: pride of my solution is the best solution, which always 356 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:42,119 Speaker 5: is an obstacle to develop serious synergy for the future. 357 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,240 Speaker 4: Well, of course you're going to have cultural issues when 358 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 4: it comes in the two Japanese firms. I think the 359 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 4: point I was trying to get to Carlos was do 360 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 4: you see the only solution being a Japanese to Japanese 361 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 4: merger or joint venture. Do you see any possibility of 362 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:59,359 Speaker 4: an overseas company like Fox cont being allied into the 363 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 4: line into this house. 364 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 5: Well, the approach, of course Fox Conne when I heard 365 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 5: about it was very interesting because it is something innovative. 366 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 5: It is something that would have put Nissan in a 367 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 5: completely different. 368 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 6: Path. 369 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 5: But the fact that you're telling me now that they 370 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:22,440 Speaker 5: are posing on it, they are very realistic people. They 371 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 5: know they cannot do it against the will of the 372 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 5: government of Japan and particularly of the METI. And now 373 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,679 Speaker 5: you need to know also that in Renau, the French 374 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 5: State has a big say because they are a very 375 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 5: influent shareholder in Renault, and I'm sure that the decision 376 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 5: of pose is coming from the fact that they know 377 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 5: the met is not very favorable and probably the French 378 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:46,640 Speaker 5: government doesn't want to upset the Japanese. 379 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 6: I've been a witness. 380 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:56,439 Speaker 5: Of how much the French government is pending backward to 381 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 5: please the Japanese in the past. 382 00:19:58,160 --> 00:19:58,880 Speaker 6: Unfortunately. 383 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 4: Look, I know that there's ongoing issues between yourself, the 384 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 4: Japanese and the French, et cetera. 385 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 2: But you have a ring sight see at many of 386 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 2: those meetings. 387 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 4: Is this, briefly before we talk about the global auto industry, Carlos, 388 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 4: is this Renos moment to exit? Do you think that 389 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 4: that's what they hope for or do you think they 390 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 4: really do want an equity participation? 391 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 5: Oh no, no, no, I mean this alliance has been 392 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:27,120 Speaker 5: you know, since twenty twenty. It's not surprise. I told 393 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:31,000 Speaker 5: you that the alliance is a zombie. It's an appearance 394 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 5: of an alliance. There is an appearance of a collaboration, 395 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:34,919 Speaker 5: but there was practically no collaboration at all. 396 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 6: I think what Renald after having. 397 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 5: The benediction of the Blessing of the French government is 398 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 5: trying to maximize its asset inside Nissan, that trying to 399 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,120 Speaker 5: get the most money out of their share. But that will, 400 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 5: in my opinion, that would sell. That would sell to 401 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:54,160 Speaker 5: Honda without any doubt. 402 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 4: Carlus, let's just broaden the conversation a little bit. You've 403 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 4: lived and breathed this industry. You've seen the evil of 404 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:04,360 Speaker 4: the Chinese electric vehicle market, the strength of the auto 405 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,919 Speaker 4: industry in China become. Are you surprised about how strong 406 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 4: they become so quickly? 407 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 5: No, not at all, you know, frankly, I've seen the 408 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 5: signs of it when we entered China. When I was 409 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 5: heading Nissan, and we entered China in two thousand and three, 410 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 5: and we start building our plans and organizing the engineering. 411 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 5: In a very short period of time, I would say 412 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 5: seven or eight years after we built the plants in China, 413 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:30,879 Speaker 5: the Chinese plans were at the top of the ranking 414 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 5: from all our plans. I mean, we were comparing the productivity, 415 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 5: the quality, the time to market of the Chinese plan 416 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 5: compared to the Japanese plan, or to the US plans 417 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,679 Speaker 5: or European plans, and the Chinese came to number one. 418 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 5: It's a very disciplined workforce. They are very, very eager 419 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,680 Speaker 5: to compete into this industry. So I think this industry 420 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:53,920 Speaker 5: in the next twenty years going to have to deal 421 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 5: with the Chinese talent and the Chinese Noha. 422 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 4: Well colors, you were known as tabs Man. I think 423 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 4: you were the voice of free trade. Every January. The 424 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 4: world is bracing for our next round of trade disruption 425 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 4: from Donald Trump. Every CEO of an other company out 426 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,719 Speaker 4: there probably has their own personal thoughts, but they probably 427 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 4: can't really express them. 428 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:20,640 Speaker 3: You can. 429 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 4: You're free now as the auto CEO's lineup, What can 430 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 4: they not say? 431 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,120 Speaker 2: What do you think they're thinking? But they can't say. 432 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 5: Look, I mean this is an industry which is by 433 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 5: the definition and global industry. You can survive as an 434 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 5: automaker if you are restricted from accessing any market in 435 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 5: the world. Size matters, investments are huge, economy of scale 436 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 5: are extremely important. So this industry is living on globalism 437 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 5: and globalization. So I think it's very bad news for 438 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 5: all the automakers to know that they're going to be 439 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 5: and they're going to be obstacles for them to be 440 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 5: present in all the market. This will translate into a 441 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 5: lot of them having problems and certainly a higher price. 442 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 6: For car in all the markets. 443 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 1: And that was Carlos Gohn, former chairman of both Nissan 444 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:24,080 Speaker 1: and Mitsubishi Motors, speaking exclusively with Bloomberg's manis Granny. Thanks 445 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,639 Speaker 1: for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia 446 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 1: Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story shaping markets, finance, 447 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 1: and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You can find us 448 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:39,720 Speaker 1: on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere 449 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 1: else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for insight on 450 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:46,920 Speaker 1: the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. 451 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 1: I'm Doug Chrisner, and this is Bloomberg