1 00:00:01,560 --> 00:00:06,280 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On. 2 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:09,399 Speaker 1: We want the world to know the President puts trying 3 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: to gas light they Russia has more forces on the 4 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:17,760 Speaker 1: border of Ukraine than the entire United States military has 5 00:00:17,840 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: in Europe. Bloomberg Sound On, Politics, Policy and Perspective from 6 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 1: DC's top names. The amount of job opening is that 7 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 1: an historic high. The unemployment rate back down under four percent. 8 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 1: We have a great opportunity on a five partisan budget. 9 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:36,959 Speaker 1: We're about nine of the way there. Bloomberg Sound On 10 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:42,200 Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. The headline we did 11 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: not expect today. Putin backs diplomacy. But is it for 12 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 1: real or is Putin still pulling strings to manipulate this 13 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 1: whole situation. Just a day before he meets with Germany's 14 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: new chancellor. We'll have the latest on the standoff and 15 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: tell you why the US still believes an attack could 16 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: be imminent, and an important conversation ahead with former Assistant 17 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:06,039 Speaker 1: Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs that would be 18 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 1: retired Army Brigadier General Mark Kimmett. For are new polling 19 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: numbers on the rush of Ukraine standoff from both sides 20 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: of the Atlantic will cover them with Jason McMahon, the 21 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: head of Geopolitical Risk Analysis at Morning Consult and later 22 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Critty Gupta on the threat of high oil and 23 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,759 Speaker 1: gas prices to the economic recovery. We've got the signature 24 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: panel in place, Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Schanzano and Rick Davis, 25 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: So strap In. Rarely have two words gone so far 26 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: to soothe so many. All right, said Vladimir Putin to 27 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 1: his Foreign Minister, Sergei lav Roth, when presented with this 28 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: idea that Moscow continued diplomatic talks with the U S 29 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: and its allies more of what we've already been doing. 30 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 1: It did not hurt to hear from Russia's Defense minister 31 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 1: as well, that some military exercises had wrapped up. They've 32 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: ended now, others will soon end. Though. Senator Mark Warner, 33 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: the Democrat from Virginia who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, 34 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 1: appeared on Ball of Power today on Bloomberg, still sounded 35 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: pretty concerned. When he talked to David Weston. Warner says 36 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 1: his biggest worry right now is a possible cyber attack 37 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 1: from Russia against Ukraine that is difficult to contain, he says, 38 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: could also hit some of our allies in Eastern Europe. 39 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: Here's warner. You can't limit the cyber attack on geographic boundaries. 40 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,800 Speaker 1: And if some of those cyber repercussions hit in Eastern Poland, 41 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 1: for example, a NATO nation, all of these hypotheticals about 42 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 1: what constitutes an Article five violation, about if you attack 43 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: one country and NATO, all of NATO has to come 44 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 1: to your assistance. That hypotheticals around UH cyber attacks could 45 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: play out in a very real way, scary hypotheticals. All 46 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 1: this as Germany's new Chancellor, all Off Schultz prepares to 47 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: meet tomorrow with Vladimir Putin, what could be a very 48 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 1: critical moment in this saga. And that is where we 49 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: begin today with General Mark Kimmitt, the retired Army brigadier general, 50 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: I should say, former Assistant Secretary of State for Political 51 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: Military Affairs. General. We last talked about this couple of 52 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 1: weeks ago, and you had pretty strong feelings about what 53 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin was up to. How do you read his 54 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 1: remarks today? Is he actually heading for de escalation? Well? 55 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 1: I think he is. I certainly hope he is. Now 56 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 1: that may be confirmation on my bias on my part 57 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: when I talked a month ago exactly on this, and 58 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: we were concerned then about the build up. The problem 59 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: that we have is we really don't know how he 60 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 1: can step down from this, and I think it may 61 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 1: well be that he's looking for an opportunity to step 62 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 1: down and back off. But it's pretty vulnerable at that point, no, no, 63 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: no doubt about it. Sounds pretty unpredictable. What do you 64 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 1: make of what Senator Warner's talking about with a possible 65 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 1: cyber attack, that that could be a prelude to war. 66 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 1: But you know, we talked so much about tanks, airplanes, 67 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: guns and missiles general. If a cyber attack hit one 68 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: of our NATO allies, what does that mean about Article five? 69 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: What would we be obligated to do? Well, First of all, 70 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 1: it would have to be considered an act of war. 71 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: We've seen cyber attacks happened a number of times inside 72 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: of Europe, inside of our NATO partners. Wouldn't consider them 73 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: that war. I think it was a collateral effect as 74 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: a result of what he was doing inside of Ukraine. 75 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 1: I think we'd be hard for NATO to make the 76 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: point that that's an Article five operation. I want to 77 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: ask you about the window of opportunity here for Vladimir 78 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: Putin more than a hundred thousand troops, as we know, 79 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: a lot of equipment on the Ukrainian border. The former 80 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta was asked about it today 81 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: again on on Bloomberg on Balance of Power. Let's hear 82 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: his answer on this and have your respond. Here's Leon Panetta. 83 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:46,920 Speaker 1: When you put troops on the front lines and when 84 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 1: they're armed for battle and when they're prepared for battle, uh, frankly, 85 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: they can only maintain that for a certain period of time. 86 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: They can't just constantly be at a state of battle readiness. 87 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: And that is probably the gamble that Putin's taken now, 88 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 1: which is how long can you keep those forces online 89 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: and be ready for a possible attack. You know a 90 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 1: lot about this general. How long can Putent stay ready 91 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: for battle at the border? It's already been weaks. Well, 92 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 1: you can stay much longer than we think. We kept 93 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,920 Speaker 1: a hundred American troops on the East German border for 94 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: forty five years now. It's an expective proposition, There's no 95 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:33,479 Speaker 1: doubt about it. But I would not think that Vladimer 96 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 1: Prutent would back down as if soldiers have been on 97 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 1: the border too at all. Would you also suggest that 98 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: battle ready is somewhat different for the Russian military than 99 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 1: if you were there with American units, Not particularly. I 100 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: take a look at what they've got. They've got conventional 101 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: ground troops. They're gonna need a lot of AMMO. They're 102 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: gonna need a lot of fuel. They're gonna need a 103 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 1: lot of food, a lot of fuel that certainly could 104 00:05:56,120 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: be provided and ready h and can be waiting for 105 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: the ghost signal from Vladimir Putin, say a couple of 106 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: more weeks at least. The fact is, though, General, even 107 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 1: if Vladimir Putin pulls the trigger, they cross the border, 108 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 1: there's a Ukrainian invasion, We're still not talking about an 109 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: American military answer. Correct. This would then trigger sanctions, which 110 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: have yet to be fully detailed. But we spend so 111 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 1: much time talking military strategy. It's still not really on 112 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: the table for the U. S. Is it? No, not 113 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 1: at all. I think that the strategy of the United 114 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 1: States is step number one diplomacy, and if diplomacy fails 115 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 1: to sanctions, like our commitment to Germany for forty five 116 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 1: years to where we would deter and if the turns failed, defend. 117 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: In this case, it's deter and turn fails, uh than 118 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 1: economic sanctions, military forces that we have in Europe right now, 119 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,919 Speaker 1: or they're solely for the protection of our NATO allies, 120 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 1: certainly not Ukraine. So if sanctions are the heaviest hand 121 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: we have right now, General, how important is this meeting 122 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 1: tomorrow with Germany's chancellor and Vladimir Putin? Oh? I think 123 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: it will probably be as unsuccessful as the British Foreign 124 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: Minister was when she went to visit Putin. Regardless of 125 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: what Putin is going to do that will not be 126 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: affected by meeting with the new chancellor. Did we lose 127 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: the General? Are you still with us? General? No? Sorry, 128 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: it sounded like I lost your line there for a moment. 129 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: What then, does the German Chancellor need to tell Vladimir 130 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: Putin tomorrow? Well, what he needs to tell Vladimir Putin 131 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 1: is that he is cutting off the nord Stream pipeline. 132 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 1: He believes. Putin believes right now that he's holding Germany 133 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: hostage because they're unwilling to cut off the North Stream 134 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: pipeline project. Many thanks to retired army Brigadier General Mark 135 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 1: kim At, former Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs, 136 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 1: Here on Bloomberg Sound On. As we turned now after 137 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 1: we've set the table here to some fresh polling data 138 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: out today from morning console. There's been a real dearth 139 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: of data. Jason McMahon is head of Geopolitical Risk Analysis 140 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 1: and he's with us now. Jason, welcome. It's it's safe 141 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 1: to say the public does not want to start a 142 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 1: new war. Do you find in your survey that people 143 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: want a diplomatic resolution here? That is correct, at least 144 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: in the scenario we're currently in where a Russian invasion 145 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 1: has not yet taken place. About se of American voters 146 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: do prefer negotiations or sanctions relative to something like deployment 147 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: of US troops. Were there any circumstances under which Americans 148 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: did support the use of force for the most part, No, 149 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: What we're seeing is that if there were to be 150 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 1: an actual Russian invasion, across most of the scenarios that 151 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 1: we have surveyed on for the most part, Americans do 152 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: continue to support sanctions as a response relative to deployment 153 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 1: of U. S troops. There is one exception, and that 154 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 1: would be in the event that Russia invaded and occupied 155 00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 1: all of Ukraine, and not just Eastern Ukrainian but really, 156 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: uh when into the entire country and remained there. In 157 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: that case, we're seeing a bit more support for deployment 158 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:08,559 Speaker 1: of U S troops, primarily as part of a NATO 159 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: left engagement, but the margins are still relatively split. What 160 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 1: the numbers look like there, Yes, well, we're seeing as 161 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 1: of today and this would be from a survey that 162 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: we field it over the weekend. Um is it among 163 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: the voters who kind of have an opinion on the issue. 164 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 1: It's really about or so who would support military deployment 165 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: in case of a again kind of a total invasion 166 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 1: of Ukraine and about who would prefer sanctions. So very 167 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 1: tight margins. You've also pulled Europeans on this and fascinating 168 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 1: as we gauge how committed our allies are to the 169 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:44,559 Speaker 1: cause here as I read German in in uk adults 170 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 1: oppose greater Russian influence in countries in the neighborhood as 171 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 1: you put it, But French sentiment is less clear cut. 172 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: What did you learn? Yeah, you know, we're seeing French 173 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 1: sentiment in general is a bit less clear cut when 174 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: it comes to opinions on things like Russian influence in 175 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,559 Speaker 1: its neighborhood so to speak, so countries like Ukraine and Georgia. 176 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 1: Perhaps we're also seeing a bit more uncertainty when it 177 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 1: comes to friend sentiment towards things like sanctions, as well 178 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,840 Speaker 1: as whether or not Germany should move to cancel the 179 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 1: nord Stream to pipeline. We don't have a great sense 180 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: as of yet as to what the drivers might be, 181 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 1: but friend sentiment does seem to be a bit of 182 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: an outlier in this regard relative to what we're seeing 183 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: in the UK and awesome in Germany is how did 184 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 1: Germans come down on nord Stream too? You know, interestingly, 185 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 1: in the case of nord Stream too, in Germany we're 186 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 1: seeing exactly an even split. This was as of a 187 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: few weeks ago, so we're seeing that about one third 188 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 1: of respondents are kind of uncertain, they don't have much 189 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: of an opinion. Among the remaining two thirds that do 190 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 1: have an opinion, it's sort of split right down the middle, 191 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 1: with half of those saying, you know, let's cancel and 192 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 1: half of those saying no, let's not so. And especially 193 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: uncertain case, I think given the magnitude of the issue 194 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 1: at stake. Wow, that does it says a lot. As 195 00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: the German Chancellor prepares to meet with Vladimir Putin tomorrow, 196 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: where does Europe come down on Ukraine joining NATO? You know, 197 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 1: in Europe there as well, what I can tell you 198 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 1: is relative to the US, German, French, and British respondents 199 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,439 Speaker 1: are a bit more split or undecided as to whether 200 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 1: NATO should really keep the door open to Ukrainian membership. 201 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: What we're seeing in the US, by contrast, is it 202 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: about of American voters who do have an opinion on 203 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: the matter, would like to keep the door open to 204 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 1: Ukrainian membership. And there's the matter of sanctions, Jason, there's 205 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 1: a debate underway here in the US. Is there a 206 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 1: similar debate in Europe over how to handle this? You know, 207 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 1: as far as the Europeans are concerned, we're seeing, similar 208 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 1: to the US, that Europeans do prefer sanctions to a 209 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: military deployment, at least as of a few weeks ago. 210 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 1: But in terms of kind of the level of sanctions 211 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 1: that they would prefer, that is something we have not 212 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 1: had the opportunity to investigate yet. Straddling both sides of 213 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: the Atlantic. In this case, Jason McMahon had of geopolitical 214 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 1: risk analysis at Morning Consult. We thank you for being 215 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 1: with us on Bloomberg Radio. Thank you so much. Coming up, 216 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 1: we assemble the panel for their take on all this 217 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie chantan No and Rick Davis. 218 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 1: This is sound On. I'm Joe Matthew and this is Bloomberg. 219 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. So long with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. 220 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 1: The headline on the terminal Putin signals talks with us 221 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: to go on. Pretty impressive stagecraft this morning in Moscow. 222 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: There's Vladimir Putin stage televised meetings with his foreign and 223 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 1: defense ministers sitting at the other ends of really long table. 224 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 1: But as I read on, Bloomberg emphasized the escalation of 225 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 1: tensions and efforts to find a diplomatic solution. Okay, so 226 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 1: is this getting better? Let's assemble the panel Bloomberg Politics 227 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 1: contributors Geenie Chantano and Rick Davis. Welcome to both of you. 228 00:12:57,720 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 1: Hope you had a great weekend. Jeannie, are you buying 229 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 1: this messaging from Moscow? You know we have to be 230 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 1: very circumspect on this. I think the wise thing to 231 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: do with with Vladimir Putin always is to watch what 232 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: he does, as opposed to listen to what he says. 233 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: And so, yes, they are signaling in terms of their 234 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 1: talk that they may be open to more diplomatic initiatives. 235 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 1: And yet you look at what they have done on 236 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,199 Speaker 1: the border. You look at how well positioned they are 237 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 1: to go in any manner if they choose. And I 238 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 1: think that's what we have to respond to. Rick, I 239 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 1: presume this is for a domestic audience, although it resonated 240 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 1: around the world. Is this Vladimir Putin uh, telling us 241 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 1: how he feels, or trying to to at least create 242 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: the pretense to be able to say later, hey, you know, 243 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,719 Speaker 1: we tried what we could. We we tried diplomacy till 244 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: the end. Yeah. I mean, it's a very low risk 245 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 1: situation for him, right as you say, there's probably a 246 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:55,839 Speaker 1: lot of domestic consumption of information. Uh, probably not taking 247 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 1: a lot of survey research right now outside his own country. 248 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: But he knows what people are feeling and he's got 249 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,400 Speaker 1: to have the support of the public. So that little 250 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 1: song and dance, as you say, Stagecraft probably was orchestrated 251 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 1: for that, but but it was clearly also built for 252 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 1: a global consumption. Uh. And as as Jeannie just said, 253 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,080 Speaker 1: don't listen to him, just see what he does. But 254 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: the reality here too is as General uh kim It 255 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: just said on your show, Uh, maybe he is looking 256 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 1: for a way to step it down a bit. Um. 257 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 1: You know that this is a big risk for him, 258 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 1: and he is at least looking like he's buying himself 259 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 1: some options. Do you feel like he's looking for an 260 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: off ramp here, Jeannie. One of the other things we 261 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: discussed with the General is the amount of time has 262 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 1: had a hundred and thirty thousand troops at the ready. 263 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: I mean, at a certain point, that gets to be 264 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: a pretty expensive endeavor, it does, you know. I think 265 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: one of the things we've always suspected are many people 266 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: have in this area, is that Putin had no intention 267 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 1: from the beginning of going in, and yet he finds 268 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 1: himself in this position in part because of the United 269 00:14:56,680 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 1: States and NATO's response, and so he could very well 270 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: be looking for a way out. But again, we cannot 271 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: just assume that. We've got to work from the perspective 272 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 1: that he's amassed this amount at the border of troops 273 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: and equipment. So if he chooses to go in, he 274 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: can do that, and we've got to respond accordingly, which 275 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 1: means the United States and NATO have to really take 276 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 1: steps to to make it clear to put in what 277 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 1: he's facing should he go in. And that's where I 278 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 1: think there's been some concern. We heard some of it 279 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 1: over the weekend that we haven't been strong enough and 280 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 1: letting him know exactly what he will face. We've talked 281 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 1: quite a bit about the meeting tomorrow with the German 282 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 1: Chancellor Rick. We heard earlier today from leon Panetta. He 283 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: was speaking with David West and on Balance of Power 284 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: about what President Biden needs to be focused on right 285 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: now with that meeting in mind tomorrow. Listen to what 286 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 1: he said. Here's leon Panetta, Putin is going to look 287 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: for a crap that. That's what he's doing right now 288 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: by moving his forces, by concentrating his forces, he's trying 289 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 1: to see whether I not he can crack that unity 290 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 1: between the United States and our allies. The most important 291 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 1: thing we need to do is to continue our efforts, 292 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: continue to unify our allies. With that said, what goes 293 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 1: into the meeting tomorrow, Rick, what will you be watching 294 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 1: as Germany has its day at the Kremlin. Well, you know, 295 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: we were informed by the meeting that Chancellor Schulz had 296 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: with Joe Biden last week and and where he was 297 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: pressed very hard by the American press and the German 298 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 1: press to make a statement about nord Stream too. Joe 299 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 1: Biden had to basically step in and save him. And 300 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: but what he what he committed him to do, is 301 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: to stop Nordstream too if if there's an invasion. So 302 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 1: the question is, does does the Chancellor walk out of 303 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 1: that meeting, have a press opportunity and say the same 304 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: thing that Joe Biden said he wouldn't do it in 305 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 1: the US press? Why would he do it after walking 306 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: out at uh Putin's office? And I think that is 307 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 1: the key thing that Panetta is looking for, is you know, 308 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,479 Speaker 1: is he siding with us publicly or is he you know, 309 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 1: trying to play diplomacy right now? I think public statements 310 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: mean a lot. That would be a moment. Bloomberg Senior 311 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 1: editor and opinion columnist John Author has had an interesting 312 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 1: piece today, Jeannie headline dangers of a pulp fiction moment 313 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: in Ukraine. You know, everybody's going to read that headline. 314 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: He starts by describing the scene at the beginning of 315 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 1: that movie Samuel L. Jackson, John Travolta. They walk into 316 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: the apartment where the young guys are hanging around looking 317 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 1: for whatever was in the briefcase. Samuel L. Jackson questioning 318 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:37,120 Speaker 1: one of them when he casually shoots this guy laying 319 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 1: on the couch and he asks this, Oh, I'm sorry, 320 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: did I break your concentration? I didn't mean to do that. 321 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 1: Please continue. You were saying something about best intentions. Speaking 322 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:54,320 Speaker 1: of best intentions here, Jeannie, the ideas that we can 323 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 1: be distracted by everything going on in Ukraine. We've got 324 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:59,879 Speaker 1: issues with inflation, earning season, the credit market. What are 325 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 1: you worried about the Biden administration not looking at here, 326 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 1: keeping its eye on the ball while the rest of 327 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:08,159 Speaker 1: this stuff is happening. Boy, that brought me back to 328 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 1: a great film. It was a great piece by John 329 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 1: And you're right that title really gets you going. Um, 330 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 1: you know, I think the one thing I think that 331 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 1: is really and we saw this in the interview over 332 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: the weekend with the President. To me, they have got 333 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 1: to focus on his inflation, which is not just a 334 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 1: US problem, but a world problem. And yes, this can 335 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 1: take our eye off that ball, and if it does, 336 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: the implications will be traumatic. Rick and Jennie are with us, 337 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 1: with apologies to the big Cahuna Burger, pretty goop that 338 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: will come next Here on Sound On, I'm Joe mackw 339 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:49,679 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from our nation's capital, Bloomberg 340 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 1: to New York, Bloomberg eleven, Frio to Boston, Bloomberg one 341 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 1: oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine six to 342 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 1: the country rius XM General one nine team and around 343 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. 344 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew. Oh, I'm sorry, 345 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:17,199 Speaker 1: did I break your concentration? That line from Samuel L. 346 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,919 Speaker 1: Jackson you just heard from pulp fiction, as noted in 347 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 1: John Author's great column today, got me thinking about the 348 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 1: risks facing the Biden administration and the country as a whole. 349 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 1: While our entire focus is trained on Ukraine. A great 350 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,200 Speaker 1: piece today on the terminal, Americans spend more at pump 351 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 1: posing perils for markets and the Fed. Oh yeah, the 352 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 1: Fed and critties with us now there's a reason Cretty 353 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 1: the administration so concerned about high prices. You point out 354 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 1: it threatens consumers spending confidence the overall economy. Just as 355 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 1: the FED is beginning to tighten pretty goop to how 356 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 1: much of a slowdown are we talking about? Are the 357 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 1: United States of America? We are unique because we are 358 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 1: a consumer driven economy. At the end of the day, 359 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: it's that kind of consumerism that is sn really powers 360 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: the global economy. You know, a lot of people like 361 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:06,199 Speaker 1: to say it's China making exports, it's Russia with their 362 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 1: commodity exports, the Middle East with their commodity exports. But 363 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, someone has to buy them, right, 364 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: and that's really where the United States come and comes 365 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,800 Speaker 1: into handy. But when you start to see that purchasing 366 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 1: power eroded a little bit, it becomes a problem not 367 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:20,959 Speaker 1: just for the U. S economy, but for the world. 368 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,600 Speaker 1: And if things start to cost more, whether it's food, 369 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: whether it's gasoline, whether it's housing, um, that purchasing power 370 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: starts to drop and drop and drop. And that's really 371 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 1: where oil prices play a really big role because if 372 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: you kind of crack down on what those inflation numbers 373 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 1: really look like. And what's actually driving inflation, Well, the 374 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: majority of it is coming from energy prices. I mean 375 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 1: we're looking at um well nearing a hundred dollars a barrel. 376 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 1: I think we hit nine a barrel on Brent just 377 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 1: earlier in the session. What's important to keep in mindset, 378 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 1: it's not just your political risk, it's this kind of 379 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 1: really important demand that's driving it. And that kind of 380 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: trickles into gasoline prices because not only is the United 381 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 1: States UH one of the biggest consumer economies in the world, 382 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 1: the biggest, I should say, it's also the biggest consumer 383 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,120 Speaker 1: of gasoline in particular. And to your point, this goes 384 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 1: beyond some of the current geopolitical risk and the current 385 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 1: inflation story when it comes to energy specifically, Cretty. This 386 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: is a long term story of lack of investment, right, 387 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 1: and demand that's not about to wane just because a 388 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 1: couple of evs are showing up. Yeah, exactly. And I mean, well, 389 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 1: let's just start off with the lack of investment first, 390 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,119 Speaker 1: because there are several players who kind of feed into 391 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 1: the commodity space. So when we're talking about lack of investment, 392 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 1: most people are talking about investment abroad because you could 393 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 1: have two different types of oil. You have kind of 394 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:39,879 Speaker 1: heavy crude and light crude. I won't get into the 395 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 1: details of that, but basically, the world can't sustain itself 396 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 1: on light crude, which is just what the United States makes. 397 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 1: That's why you kind of have this interchangeable UM commodity 398 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 1: market because heavy crude can be turned into more things 399 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 1: like jet fuel, gasoline, It can be refined, can be 400 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: made to vasoline for example. There's a bunch of different 401 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 1: types of things UM. But that lack of an investment 402 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 1: comes a lot in when you're talking about OPEC plus 403 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: is partners because when they kind of dealt with the 404 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 1: onslaught of the pandemic, they ramped down their production. Remember 405 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,879 Speaker 1: we saw them cut down supply. It hit their economies UM. 406 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 1: And the only two countries that are able to ramp 407 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 1: up as quickly as they ramped down our Saudi Arabia 408 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 1: and the U a E. The rest of them, including Russia, 409 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 1: which is the second largest producer in the OPEC plus cartel, 410 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 1: doesn't have that investment to ramp back up. So even 411 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 1: if you say, hey, Russia, we'll buy everything you've got, 412 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 1: they're gonna say we don't have everything there Isn't that 413 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: the case as well? For our own shale producers in Texas. 414 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,160 Speaker 1: You know, it was drill, baby drill until the demand 415 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 1: fell off, and they've been burned before, they've been slow 416 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 1: to come back in this story of of rising demand. Now, yeah, 417 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:47,640 Speaker 1: that's a really good point. And I think when we're 418 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 1: talking about shale producers, we also have to keep in 419 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 1: mind that these shale producers, this industry is not state 420 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 1: driven the way Saudi Aramco is, the way Russia's economy 421 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,360 Speaker 1: when it comes to commodity exporting is. You can't force 422 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,400 Speaker 1: them back to right. You can't say, Joe Biden can't say, 423 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 1: you know, gas prices are rising, my approval ratings are 424 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: following drill baby drill. You can't say that, um And 425 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 1: I'm sure he wished he could, because that's of course 426 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 1: high up on his agenda. But for shale companies in particular, 427 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:17,200 Speaker 1: they're also having that kind of ramp up issue because 428 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:22,399 Speaker 1: in the last couple of years, specifically, they drilled so 429 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 1: much that their investment their wells essentially aged out and 430 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:30,760 Speaker 1: they didn't actually kind of reinforce that investment, that investment, 431 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: that infrastructure and that means that they also probably can't 432 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 1: ramp up, and most importantly, they don't want to. They're 433 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 1: trying to be more responsible. They're trying to return cash 434 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: to their shareholders. You can't do that if oil prices dropped. 435 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,159 Speaker 1: What does this mean for policymakers? Then, if you know 436 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,440 Speaker 1: you're pointing out the potential for a hundred dollars a barrel, 437 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,240 Speaker 1: we saw ninety do w T I today for the 438 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 1: first time, since you're pointing out in your column today 439 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: a hundred dollars a barrel by the end of this 440 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,640 Speaker 1: month with lift inflation by about a half percentage point, 441 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 1: you and I are talking about how this might slow 442 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,399 Speaker 1: the economy. What does it mean for a federal reserve 443 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,719 Speaker 1: that's about to start tightening. Yeah, well this is the 444 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 1: biggest issue, right And by the way, that staff you 445 00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 1: mentioned the hiding by hikening or heightening inflation by half 446 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:15,359 Speaker 1: a percent, that's coming from Bloomberg Economics shock index models. 447 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,679 Speaker 1: So it's really important to give them credit where credits due. 448 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: But what's important for the Fed here is that they're 449 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,160 Speaker 1: already kind of stuck between a rock and a hard 450 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 1: place right there, kind of trying to not tank the 451 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,360 Speaker 1: economy but also get a handle on inflation. The way 452 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 1: you do that is you don't control prices of things 453 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 1: like oil. You kind of tamp down the underlying demand. 454 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 1: And that's what they're trying to do by hightening hiking rates. 455 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 1: The problem though, is gasoline prices, for example, in the winter, 456 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 1: I should add it's not even road trip season, are 457 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 1: already rising and rising and rising, and and that's going 458 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 1: to eat into people's consumers, which brings us full circle 459 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,879 Speaker 1: to where we started. If you have less money in 460 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,159 Speaker 1: your pocket, you're going to be spending less. The economy 461 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,640 Speaker 1: is gonna be churning less um, and the cycle begin. 462 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 1: So does this potentially alter the Fed's plans as we 463 00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 1: get deeper into the year. In theory, I think they're 464 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,239 Speaker 1: still waiting because right now the inflationary pressures are so 465 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: strong that right now, in their eyes, it outweighs any 466 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: damage that they can do. But this is the risk, 467 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 1: right this is what people are saying that the Fed 468 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,400 Speaker 1: might overdo it. There might be a policy mistake in there, 469 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 1: and that's really where you see the bond markets start 470 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 1: to price in a potential recession in the next couple 471 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,640 Speaker 1: of years. What does this mean then for lawmakers as well, 472 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: how do you make spending plans when you don't know 473 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,600 Speaker 1: where the economy or inflation are going. Yeah, it gets 474 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,679 Speaker 1: really tricky, and I wish I had an answer for you, 475 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 1: because I just you really can't, because it's it's really 476 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 1: challenging to basically predict when pa inflation is. There are 477 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 1: a lot of people who said the CPI report that 478 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 1: we just got was peak inflation, but people have also 479 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 1: said that in the past they said inflation would be transitory, right, 480 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 1: So that lack of prediction is really the sole cause 481 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,120 Speaker 1: of all this uncertainty that you're seeing kind of royal 482 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 1: the markets. Lastly, you're our market MAYFN You write that 483 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 1: stocks have become more sensitive to the price of oil. 484 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,920 Speaker 1: Why is that um because it's rising so much and 485 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 1: because you're seeing it. I mean, oil and stocks are 486 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 1: supposed to move together. Their boats supposed to be these 487 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 1: beacons of economic growth and healthy demand, so they are 488 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 1: supposed to move together. But when you see oil prices 489 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: this powerful, it eats into a lot of the kind 490 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 1: of corporate America's bottom line, into that consumer spending we 491 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 1: were just talking about, And it means at the end 492 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 1: of the day, corporate America could be making less and less, 493 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: and that's something you're seeing in earnings right now. The 494 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,959 Speaker 1: idea that for a lot of companies, transportation costs are 495 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,639 Speaker 1: eating into how much they're making, how much able to 496 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 1: pay their employees, and that's something that a lot of 497 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 1: investors don't see abating anytime soon. Bloomberg Markets correspondent Created Gupta, 498 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 1: a great pleasure to have you on Bloomberg sound On. 499 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,960 Speaker 1: Thanks for checking in today and coming up, we reassemble 500 00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 1: the panel to extend the conversation, Rick and Genie. We'll 501 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,440 Speaker 1: be back in a couple on this eve of confirmation 502 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 1: votes for President Biden's picks for the Federal Reserve. Looks 503 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: like a package of five. We're going to vote on 504 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 1: them all and committee tomorrow, the Banking Committee, and we'll 505 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 1: talk about all of this ahead with our signature panel. 506 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for being with us on the fastest hour in politics. 507 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg So 508 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:19,400 Speaker 1: No with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio on Donald Trump's 509 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,760 Speaker 1: last day in office January twenty if two years ago, 510 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: the average price for a gallon of unleaded gas. Do 511 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 1: you want to take a guess? It was two dollars 512 00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,520 Speaker 1: thirty nine cents a gallon. That's the That was the 513 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:36,960 Speaker 1: national average according to Triple A today three dollars forty 514 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 1: eight cents aga and so up over a dollar. And 515 00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 1: as we just discussed with Creedy Goopta, that money's got 516 00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 1: to come from somewhere, so means lower consumer spending. It 517 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,879 Speaker 1: could mean an eventual drag on the overall economy, and 518 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 1: historically that would mean a drag on the president's approval ratings. 519 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 1: So you wonder how long this can go on for 520 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 1: Let's reassemble the Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Sanzano and Rick 521 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:06,199 Speaker 1: Davis are here. Rick, this really complicates things for the 522 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve. I know policymakers look at so called core 523 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 1: inflation they strip out energy, But you can't ignore the 524 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 1: impact this is having on households when you're just about 525 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 1: to start tightening. Yeah, and you're you're starting to get 526 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,120 Speaker 1: this demand back to pre pandemic levels and you can't 527 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 1: satisfy it, and he's rising costs or you know, fueling 528 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,359 Speaker 1: this inflation trend, and and and you know, the federal 529 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,679 Speaker 1: reserve had their shot on goal early on this and 530 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 1: and missed it by calling it all transient and that 531 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 1: would go away. So they could really use some help 532 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 1: on this. But at the end of the day, a 533 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 1: lot of the a lot of the mechanisms they have 534 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 1: are probably to be determined, right, They're gonna have to 535 00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,480 Speaker 1: come in the future. So the consumer is gonna have 536 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 1: to go through some pain, it looks like, in order 537 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,959 Speaker 1: for them, you know, implement their policies. You wonder if 538 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 1: this alters their plans at all. Genie, I mean, it's 539 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 1: become you know, it's become a drinking game. It's gonna 540 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 1: be six or seven hikes in the next year. Uh, 541 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 1: if we have assistently high energy prices. Let's say something 542 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: doesn't go very well in Ukraine. Uh, and we've got 543 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 1: a hundred dollars a barrel the way we just discussed 544 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 1: with with Creedy. What what does that mean for policy 545 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 1: makers when they're trying to slow inflation but the economy 546 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,000 Speaker 1: is slowing at the same time. Yeah, I mean, as 547 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,480 Speaker 1: you and pretty were discussing, I mean, it's stunning nearing 548 00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,240 Speaker 1: a hundred dollars a barrel now, and by some estimates 549 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 1: could go up asigh as a hundred and twenty. And 550 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 1: you know, to your point, this is something that people 551 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 1: feel every time they go to fill up their car. 552 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 1: It's more to fill up your car than it was 553 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 1: last year, let alone when Donald Trump left office. So 554 00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,200 Speaker 1: you know, it is a huge impact and for policy 555 00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:45,520 Speaker 1: makers and for the Biden administration in particular, this is 556 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:49,560 Speaker 1: a huge challenge. And what depending on what happens in 557 00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 1: the Ukraine, should Russia go in, that could drive this 558 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,400 Speaker 1: up even further, and the Fed is going to have 559 00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 1: to act on that, and they could use some real 560 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,640 Speaker 1: direction in doing that. I just go back to the 561 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 1: president's comments in this interview he did over the weekend 562 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 1: for the Super Bowl, in which he seemed to me 563 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 1: at least frustrated by the question, which was a fair 564 00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 1: question about how do you define transitory? He should have 565 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 1: an answer to what he is doing about inflation, because 566 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 1: he is doing things. The administration is they're doing the 567 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:25,240 Speaker 1: best they can potentially, but his his response to that 568 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,760 Speaker 1: was a bit frustrating. I think for many of us listening, well, 569 00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 1: we've certainly seen this impact presidents before, and and it's 570 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:34,960 Speaker 1: very difficult to tell where we're going here. It's just 571 00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,040 Speaker 1: the fedric may not have a choice. I guess is 572 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 1: the problem that if inflation is running rampant, they they're 573 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 1: going to have to hike interest rates even if the 574 00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 1: economy is slowing down, and then things are going to 575 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 1: get really interesting. That brings us to the vote tomorrow 576 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 1: Banking Committee in the Senate. It looks like they're going 577 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 1: for all five at once. It's going to be a 578 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 1: block vote here with five nominees, of course, including the 579 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:01,760 Speaker 1: chair himself, J. Powell in the Banking Committee, and then 580 00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 1: of course it would go to the floor. We heard 581 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 1: today as you as you might have heard earlier. Senator 582 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 1: Mark Warner is uh on the Banking Committee. He spoke 583 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg. He was on balance of power with David 584 00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 1: West and who asked about Republican opposition to some of these, 585 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:19,840 Speaker 1: and the idea here is why not break them up 586 00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 1: a little bit. If there's gonna be a problem, why 587 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,520 Speaker 1: not break them up, get the chair at least in 588 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 1: place before the next Fed meeting. Here's Senator Mark Warner. 589 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,880 Speaker 1: I think both Chairman Brown and the administration want to 590 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:34,040 Speaker 1: try to move these as closely as possible in a 591 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:39,120 Speaker 1: block because so that our Republican friends, don't try to 592 00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:40,760 Speaker 1: pick off one or the other. I think some of 593 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,880 Speaker 1: the charges against both the Miss bloom Raskin and Dr 594 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 1: Cook are way out of bounds. And frank they don't 595 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,960 Speaker 1: don't hold a lot of water do The Senate Banking 596 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:56,480 Speaker 1: Committee will vote on the five nominees around two in 597 00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:01,600 Speaker 1: the afternoon tomorrow. Is that really a concern at this point? 598 00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 1: They have to all move together just to make sure 599 00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:05,800 Speaker 1: that they get approval or are we going to be 600 00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:10,240 Speaker 1: in for a complicated vote tomorrow? I think we could be. 601 00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 1: You know, during the hearings we heard at least one 602 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:16,600 Speaker 1: Republican or more say they supported Powell, Brainerd, Jefferson, and Cook. 603 00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 1: But Cook has come is a little bit more iffy 604 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 1: than the other three. But bloom Raskin has some challenges, 605 00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 1: even coming from Democrats. Now we've heard from John Tester 606 00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:30,080 Speaker 1: that he is a bit concerned about her work with 607 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 1: this fintech company where she sat on the board the 608 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,760 Speaker 1: Reserve Trust Um. She said she didn't do anything and proper, 609 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,920 Speaker 1: but he has expressed some concern about that. Republicans certainly have, 610 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 1: so I think it's going to be at the very 611 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,280 Speaker 1: least a complicated vote tomorrow as they try to move 612 00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:48,280 Speaker 1: this as a block, And to your question, why not 613 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,160 Speaker 1: at least allow the chair who by all accounts seems 614 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:55,200 Speaker 1: to have an easy path forward, get in position, particularly 615 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,720 Speaker 1: during this really difficult time that the FETE is facing, 616 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,040 Speaker 1: and then move the other um. But but Democrats want 617 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 1: to try to get this through, and of course they 618 00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:07,160 Speaker 1: then face a Senate where they are down one Democrat, 619 00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,239 Speaker 1: which could make this all that much more complicated. We're 620 00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:11,320 Speaker 1: going to get to that in just a second. Rick, 621 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:16,040 Speaker 1: You've seen, uh, you've seen these clearing committee at least 622 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 1: are you surprised by the level of Republican pushed back 623 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 1: the day before? You know? Uh? Not really, this has 624 00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 1: become some somewhat politicized, especially with candidate Raskin, you know, 625 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,480 Speaker 1: and and the comments related to climate. These Republicans want to, 626 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:34,040 Speaker 1: you know, bash climate issues any chance they can. But 627 00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 1: I doubt if it's gonna be that big a test. 628 00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:39,640 Speaker 1: I mean, like, uh, Jenny was just talking about John 629 00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 1: Tesher he and now say he was going to vote 630 00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,240 Speaker 1: for them. Also, the Democrats are going to vote in 631 00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:45,840 Speaker 1: a block for all of them. They have fifty percent 632 00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,880 Speaker 1: of the votes in that committee. My, my, guess is, uh, 633 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:52,520 Speaker 1: this is all going to be different afterwards the floor 634 00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 1: will be an interesting debate as to whether anybody really 635 00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,840 Speaker 1: wants to cause trouble with it. But at this stage, well, 636 00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:00,640 Speaker 1: nobody wants to get in a way these guys doing 637 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 1: their work on inflation. I mean, the last thing Republicans want, 638 00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:06,480 Speaker 1: you know, is to be blamed for the fact that 639 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:08,719 Speaker 1: this team wasn't in place and they weren't able to 640 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,040 Speaker 1: tackle the inflation. Uh was that we were just talking 641 00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 1: about um and and frankly, they probably want them in 642 00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:16,719 Speaker 1: place so they can blame them for, you know, not 643 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,560 Speaker 1: taking uh inflation serious enough. So I I think if 644 00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,600 Speaker 1: I were the candidates, I'd be the ones worried about it, 645 00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:25,640 Speaker 1: Like maybe they shouldn't get nominated and confirmed because like, 646 00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:28,399 Speaker 1: this is gonna be a hard job this year. And uh, 647 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,720 Speaker 1: I guarantee if some of them are having like buyers 648 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,200 Speaker 1: or morrise for saying yes to this job. We heard 649 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,920 Speaker 1: from the aforementioned Senator Luhan, the Democrat from New Mexico 650 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,480 Speaker 1: has suffered a stroke. Young man forty nine years old, 651 00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:43,279 Speaker 1: suffered a stroke about a week well, I guess two 652 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:45,319 Speaker 1: weeks ago. At this point, he showed up today on 653 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,440 Speaker 1: a video tweeted a video to his supporters to let 654 00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,399 Speaker 1: them know that he would be back, remembering, uh, that 655 00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,240 Speaker 1: this impacts the vote. You're in a fifty fifty Senate 656 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,120 Speaker 1: and and one member of the Democratic Party suffers a stroke. 657 00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:59,640 Speaker 1: You're recounting all of a sudden. Now we know that 658 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,880 Speaker 1: we have a Supreme Court nominee that's going to be 659 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,320 Speaker 1: in the offing. That's going to be even more dicey 660 00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:08,120 Speaker 1: than this conversation about the Federal Reserve nominees. Listen to 661 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,880 Speaker 1: Senator Louhan today on Twitter. I'll be back on the 662 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,160 Speaker 1: floor of the United States Senate in just a few 663 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:18,280 Speaker 1: short weeks to vote on important legislation and to consider 664 00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:22,919 Speaker 1: a Supreme Court nominee. Now rest assured New Mexicans can 665 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,759 Speaker 1: know they will have a voice and a vote during 666 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:30,239 Speaker 1: this process. That has never changed. Genie. He went so 667 00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,480 Speaker 1: far as to even specifically mentioned the Supreme Court nominee. 668 00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,520 Speaker 1: I guess there's there's no confusion about what needs to 669 00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,960 Speaker 1: be done here and who Democrats are waiting for. That's right, 670 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:41,560 Speaker 1: and it's so good to hear from him. I mean, 671 00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,160 Speaker 1: he suffered a stroke that recovering that can take long 672 00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,120 Speaker 1: he's a young man, and it's really good to hear 673 00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:47,840 Speaker 1: that he's saying he's going to be back in a 674 00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:51,440 Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Certainly Democrats welcome that, um, you know, 675 00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,439 Speaker 1: but but let's not forget you know, he comes back. 676 00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:57,800 Speaker 1: And you also have to watch people like Joe Manchin Um, 677 00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:00,480 Speaker 1: whether you're talking about these FED nominees or you're talking 678 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:04,240 Speaker 1: about the Supreme Court. For Democrats, there is no room 679 00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,120 Speaker 1: to maneuver, as they know from the build back Better debate, 680 00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:11,600 Speaker 1: So if they lose one to anything, it could create 681 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:15,600 Speaker 1: enormous challenges for them. So for both of these votes 682 00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:17,920 Speaker 1: on the FED in the Supreme Court, they've got to 683 00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:21,120 Speaker 1: maintain all of their people or pick up some Republicans, 684 00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:23,920 Speaker 1: and that's a big challenge for them. Does the President 685 00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,480 Speaker 1: hold i mean realizing that Senator Luhan is not on 686 00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:30,200 Speaker 1: the Judiciary Committee because the President hold his announcement until 687 00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,919 Speaker 1: he has a better sense of when he's got a quorum. Well, 688 00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,359 Speaker 1: it sounds like that's what he's doing anyway. I mean, 689 00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:38,919 Speaker 1: we heard that he was talking about getting this out 690 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,680 Speaker 1: by the end of February. That just happens to be 691 00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:43,959 Speaker 1: two weeks from now. That just happens to be when 692 00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:46,279 Speaker 1: you know, the senator says he's going to be back 693 00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,120 Speaker 1: in circulation. It certainly did sound good, you know, in 694 00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,360 Speaker 1: the in the video he released. So my sense is 695 00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:55,279 Speaker 1: that there's more orchestration going on here than than meet 696 00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,440 Speaker 1: c I. I've certainly been through that with John McCain 697 00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,839 Speaker 1: when he had his tumor removed and we were coming 698 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:04,239 Speaker 1: back for that, uh, that vote on healthcare bill. Um. 699 00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:06,279 Speaker 1: I think Republicans were all anxious to have him there 700 00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:08,200 Speaker 1: until they realized he was going to vote against him. 701 00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,960 Speaker 1: So I think these things tend to be pretty well coordinated. 702 00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,759 Speaker 1: What was that, like, Rick, were you hearing from the 703 00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:18,160 Speaker 1: leader's office on a regular basis? This is obviously something 704 00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:20,880 Speaker 1: that had to be carefully coordinated, so votes were not 705 00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,319 Speaker 1: held in his absence. Yeah, I mean it was. It 706 00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,480 Speaker 1: was a tight vote to begin with, and sure we 707 00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,000 Speaker 1: were hearing from everybody one because they all just were 708 00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:32,960 Speaker 1: concerned about Senator McCain and making sure he was doing well. 709 00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,319 Speaker 1: And you know, of course it's like, hey, how's he doing, 710 00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,719 Speaker 1: by the way, when is he coming back? And uh? 711 00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,920 Speaker 1: And I think that those are the kinds of things 712 00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:43,560 Speaker 1: that are probably happening now. And certainly Senator Luhan sounded 713 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:45,560 Speaker 1: like he was ready to come back pretty soon, so 714 00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:47,520 Speaker 1: I would think two weeks from now we're going to 715 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:52,040 Speaker 1: see a very finely orchestrated rollout of a nominee. We 716 00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:56,319 Speaker 1: really do hope that he is well. Genie and Rick, 717 00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,320 Speaker 1: thank you as ever, thanks to the General Mark Kimmittt 718 00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,840 Speaker 1: for being with us and Jason McMahon from morning consult 719 00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:07,440 Speaker 1: with new numbers on the standoff with Russia Ukraine. Will 720 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,920 Speaker 1: have more on that tomorrow. This is Bloombird