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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our week nine Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Millman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming

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Speaker 1: off of a three and two week in our contest,

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Speaker 1: which we reviewed extensively in our Sunday Night Recap episode

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Speaker 1: just before Sunday Night Football, and as we said on

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Speaker 1: that show, a lot of lines we liked then have

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Speaker 1: already moved, which is why you need to listen to

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Speaker 1: the Sunday show if you want to get the best

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Speaker 1: of the number. Today we will get to our Simon

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Speaker 1: says in our exact decision. This episode will look at

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Speaker 1: the entire board, all sixteen games, as we do every Tuesday. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I'm foreshadowing a reviewer who is complaining we don't do

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Speaker 1: every game, as we again narrowing down the five picks

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Speaker 1: will enter in the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars

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Speaker 1: Pro Football Pick Them Contest, which is still open for

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Speaker 1: sign ups, still free to play, still awarding weekly in

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Speaker 1: season long cash prizes at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com.

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Speaker 1: Halfway through the season, Simon and I are now in

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Speaker 1: two hundred and ninth place in our contest. Out of

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Speaker 1: over eleven thousand, five hundred entries. We are inside the

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Speaker 1: top two percent. Not too shabby, my bff. Let's bring

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Speaker 1: them in, folks, My co host, my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my campadre, professional better, Simon Hunter, Simon Simon Simon. Very

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Speaker 1: early on Monday morning, very early yesterday, I was making

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Speaker 1: my double espresso, as I do every morning, and you

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Speaker 1: know what popped into my head. It wasn't like global events,

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Speaker 1: It wasn't my teenage son preparing for the SATs, wasn't

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Speaker 1: an overseas trip I have to make next week. It

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Speaker 1: was Wow, this is going to be a fun betting week.

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Speaker 1: What do you say to that?

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Speaker 2: First of all, Happy Halloween, Chady, Halloween, buddy.

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Speaker 1: You're seeing ghosts. I know we've talked about in the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Great day, great week. You know, when everyone went to

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Speaker 2: bed last night, my favorite team, the Sixers, got rid

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Speaker 2: of James Harden, who I absolutely hate, have true disdain

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Speaker 2: for the man, and he kind of ruined the sport

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Speaker 2: for me where I didn't even care about the Sixers.

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Speaker 2: So he's gone, So life is good. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if you follow at all what's happening in actual foot

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Speaker 2: the ball across the sea. But there's a British kid

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Speaker 2: named Jude Bellingham and he is basically twenty years old, chatt.

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Speaker 2: He plays for Real Madrid and last night he won

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Speaker 2: basically the best Player in the World under twenty one award,

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Speaker 2: which I know it doesn't mean much to you, but

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Speaker 2: as someone who's British who loves British soccer, I'm flying

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Speaker 2: at right now. And basically everyone in England singing like

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Speaker 2: this song you know hey, dude, like that's become his anthem.

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Speaker 2: He has gone from you know, pretty well known to

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Speaker 2: now everyone in the world knows who this kid is.

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Speaker 2: So pretty exciting twenty four hours here for me, Fana

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Speaker 2: of the Sixers, they got rid of Harden and England

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Speaker 2: might have the best player in the world in twenty

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Speaker 2: one simon.

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Speaker 1: So many people in the chat right now demanding an

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Speaker 1: update on Halloween about the ghosts in your apartment.

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Speaker 2: It was also the night to the Scots K two.

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Speaker 2: Chado probably doesn't doesn't even remember what it was like

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Speaker 2: to be a single male at all. He's always always

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Speaker 2: has someone in the house with him. I never do

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Speaker 2: and I am a weird creature too, where like I'll

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Speaker 2: go day sometimes chat without ever turning a light onto

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Speaker 2: my apartment. I'll just use my cell phone light or

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Speaker 2: the TV light. Like I'm a true curmudern when it

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Speaker 2: comes to having the lights off in my place. The

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Speaker 2: lights have not been off in my apartment now and

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Speaker 2: over whatever it is five days, like all the lights

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Speaker 2: stay on even during the day. I keep the lights on.

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Speaker 2: No weird markings on my body. But I have had

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Speaker 2: the weird thing where I'll wake up at three in

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Speaker 2: the morning and all my clocks will say like six

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Speaker 2: sixty six, and I'd be like, what's happening right now?

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Speaker 2: I just no, nothing weird. I just the random things

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Speaker 2: keep falling off. But I'm telling you this, I will

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Speaker 2: not turn the lights off like I need the lights on.

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Speaker 2: I'm still spooked, but I think after Halloween I'll be

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Speaker 2: able to go back to normal. It's just it's the

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Speaker 2: day to the dead, and it's as close as we get, right,

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Speaker 2: isn't that the old pagan celebration of Halloween. So I'm

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Speaker 2: definitely spooked. But I'm one of those people where I

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Speaker 2: try not to believe in it because apparently if you

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Speaker 2: believe in it, it makes it become more real. So

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to play it cool and be like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: there's no ghost, but deep down I'm terrified.

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Speaker 1: Listen, I'll tell you right now, you and I think

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Speaker 1: are of the same mind here Supernatural one hundred. I

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Speaker 1: am a firm believer. I'm a firm believer that there

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Speaker 1: is life beyond the planet Earth. I think it's incredibly

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Speaker 1: easy statistical to believe otherwise, and to not believe that

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Speaker 1: there's life beyond Earth, and that they are probably already here.

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Speaker 1: And why do we assume that they'll look the way

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Speaker 1: that they are supposed to look at movies? So I'm

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Speaker 1: all for alien life, I'm all for ghost life. I

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Speaker 1: come in peace. I'm a friend to everybody. Simon. If

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Speaker 1: you need a place to stay, the lights are always

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Speaker 1: on in my house. I live with light twenty four

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Speaker 1: to seven. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented

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Speaker 1: be twenty one and we're older and present in Colorado, Iowa,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio or Virginia, or eighteen or older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or on one

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions and restrictions apply.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch you every episode of

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Speaker 1: the Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a link and subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Here's our contest update Week

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Speaker 1: eight Winners roundup. Week eight of the contest, we had

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Speaker 1: one hundred and five entries finished five and zero. That's

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Speaker 1: just two percent. We had a two way tie for

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Speaker 1: first place. Congrats to our winners Cushman and vin Man

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Speaker 1: thirty four. This week's Producer's Couple Word goes to Sick

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Speaker 1: Pig for finishing dead fucking last. And the Week eight

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Speaker 1: Contest going zero to five, missing the tie breaker by

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Speaker 1: three hundred and fifteen yards. Sick pig, Please email producer

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to claim

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Speaker 1: your non cash prize. Thanks for playing. Week nine in

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Speaker 1: our contest is now live and the Monday Night Football

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Speaker 1: broke tiebreaker is total rushing yards on Monday Night football.

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Speaker 1: Good luck everybody? All right? Quick futures update. Justin Herbert

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Speaker 1: lead the league in passing twenty five to one done.

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Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill lead the league in receiving yards. He's all alone.

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Speaker 1: We got him at nine to one. AJ Brown five

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Speaker 1: straight games, one hundred and twenty five years receiving. He's

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Speaker 1: making a run. Jalen Carter still minus money to win

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Speaker 1: Defensive Rookie of the Year. Okay, let's get to Week nine.

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Speaker 1: First game up, Tennessee Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's a three point favorite

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Speaker 1: Thursday night game. We discussed it on Sunday night. We

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Speaker 1: don't love this game open. A two and a half

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Speaker 1: bet up to three makes sense, only makes me want

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Speaker 1: to bet the Titans, which I don't want to do.

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Speaker 1: I don't want Mitsch Trubisky, I don't want Kenny Pickett,

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson did a great job breaking down Will Levis's

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Speaker 1: game against the Falcons. You know, we had four touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: which is more than Ryan Tannehill has this whole season

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Speaker 1: so far. He basically pointed out that when he was

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Speaker 1: in passing downs that were unexpected, he was outstanding, but

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Speaker 1: he was terrible when the Falcons were expecting a pass.

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Speaker 1: That was the Falcons defense. You can only imagine the Steelers,

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Speaker 1: who are significantly better. Feels like, if anything, it's an

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Speaker 1: under another prime Time under.

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Speaker 2: Last night, Yeah, Primetime under. I just it's boring, it's lazy.

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Speaker 2: But you don't need to be a schmuck like me

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Speaker 2: doing all this work, feeling on all these phone calls.

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Speaker 2: You can just wake up bed the Primetime under, go

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Speaker 2: back to bed. Who knows how it gets there, Like

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Speaker 2: the last night was a perfect example of that. Should

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Speaker 2: have been over a thousand times over and it still

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Speaker 2: somehow went under, and even with a pick six, we

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Speaker 2: still somehow got to the under. So we sell the time.

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Speaker 2: The teams get tight in these games, the red zone

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Speaker 2: gets really hard to scoring, and we have two quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: here that me and chat to have zero faith and

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Speaker 2: I have no faith in Mitch I have no faith

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Speaker 2: in will it sucks. It's so low. I think it's

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Speaker 2: down to thirty six, which is insane. Yeah and a.

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Speaker 1: Half, thirty seven and a half. Now it's down to

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Speaker 1: thirty six.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's so low. So yeah, I'm still on it,

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Speaker 2: but I probably won't be betting as much as that.

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Speaker 2: Like I had short week. It's hard not the back

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Speaker 2: time here. So two and a half has gone. There's

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Speaker 2: only a three now available in most books. I'd still

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Speaker 2: take a but but it's just a spot. Bett don't

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Speaker 2: feel great about it either.

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Speaker 1: All right, we're headed to Germany.

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Speaker 2: Alright, you've eaten, but be there. Vija Menzantal smiles, So sunshine,

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Speaker 2: I'm so scared.

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Speaker 1: Ooh the Germans Frankfurt game. Miami versus Kansas City lined

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Speaker 1: open to two, got up to two and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's been bouncing around. There's two and a half some

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Speaker 1: twos out there. We like Kansas City here, I mean

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Speaker 1: Miami has not played well against good defenses. Struggled against

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Speaker 1: the Pats when they were healthy early in the year,

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Speaker 1: lost to the Bills when they were at full strength,

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Speaker 1: lost to the Eagles even when the Eagles were beat

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Speaker 1: up in the secondary and as you have said all year,

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs were grading out is one of the best

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Speaker 1: defenses in the league. Opponents QBR is bad against them,

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Speaker 1: whether they're getting pressure or not getting pressure. Their achilles

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Speaker 1: heel is the run, but Miami's not great against the run.

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Speaker 1: I feel like I want to keep playing this until

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Speaker 1: it gets to three.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm definitely leaking a little conference compredo who I

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Speaker 2: was Sunday night. I know some sharp groups. They like

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Speaker 2: Miami here, they like the the Basically, Miami isn't a

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Speaker 2: spot where their offense should excel against this Chiefs defense.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know. I just feel like it's a

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Speaker 2: lot of opinions and it's not a lot of fact

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Speaker 2: base and it's like I don't really know what to

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Speaker 2: make of it. Where it's like to me, me and

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Speaker 2: Chat gave you the stats mahomes as three point favored

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Speaker 2: or less or as a dog he's nineteen and six ats.

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Speaker 2: I can't fight those trends. Like we just we played

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Speaker 2: Mahomes here. It's uncomfortable. Don't love it. Like Miami feels

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Speaker 2: just just right now. Miami's offense feels like they're gonna

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Speaker 2: be able to give the Chiefs some problems, but you know,

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Speaker 2: even if we're down a touchdown or whatever it is,

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Speaker 2: end of the game, it's like we got my Homes.

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Speaker 2: That's the nice thing about Betty Mahomes and you know,

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Speaker 2: me and chat talk all the time. We love fading

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Speaker 2: him when he's when he's a big favorite because they

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Speaker 2: don't know how to close team out, but he doesn't

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Speaker 2: know how to get closed out either. It's like Mahomes

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Speaker 2: will never stop fighting, so this number will never be

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Speaker 2: in doubt. So I wanted this to be in our contest,

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Speaker 2: but now feeling lucky that we can't put it in

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Speaker 2: because I just don't have a feel for it. It

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Speaker 2: feels like I'm maybe I'm overlooking Miami here, but it's

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Speaker 2: just it's just such a weird number. I don't get

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Speaker 2: why it's top three. So I'm taking the Chiefs. Still

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Speaker 2: still in the Chiefs, but definitely interesting hearing what the

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Speaker 2: pros are saying about this one. Like I've talked to

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Speaker 2: a couple of smart groups who like Miami, and they

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Speaker 2: like Miami now with Ramsey on defense, like they feel

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Speaker 2: like it's a big upgrade. Again, I just I keep

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Speaker 2: pushing back. He goes an upgrade because you put against

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Speaker 2: Mac Jones, like, I don't know, it feels like Ramsey

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Speaker 2: wasn't really tested yet. So be a great test for

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Speaker 2: Ramsey that defense. See how they perform against Mahomes coming

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Speaker 2: off an embarrassing loss, something that you know doesn't really

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Speaker 2: happen to Mahomes. So uh, if he gets fully cleared

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Speaker 2: come Friday, that he's fully healthy over the sickness, and

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Speaker 2: if they try well, I'm not sure where their travel

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Speaker 2: schedule is yet, but you know it's a big deal.

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Speaker 2: Like them flying from Kansas City all the way to Germany.

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Speaker 2: I think that's like a seven or eight hour difference

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Speaker 2: time clockwise. If they fly on Friday, probably won't make

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Speaker 2: this one of my bigger bets of the week. But

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Speaker 2: if they get in early this week, you know everyone's

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Speaker 2: getting cleared. How do we not love the Chiefs? Here chat,

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Speaker 2: it's a good number we play this spot.

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Speaker 1: We totally love the Chiefs. We're gonna be on the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs at the end of the day until the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: prove otherwise. If I'm getting them at less than a

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Speaker 1: field goal, I'm taking the Chiefs. Here's what's interesting. The

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Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams are visiting the green Bay Packers. Sean

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Speaker 1: McVay has said that Matthew Stafford's injury is not season

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Speaker 1: threatening and that they're going to evaluate if he can

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Speaker 1: play this week. We totally got burned on green Bay

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Speaker 1: this past week. We just misread the handicap. We thought

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Speaker 1: the bookmakers had over correct after green Bay lost to Denver.

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Speaker 1: Now we've got the Rams visiting after Cowboys blowout, Stafford's injured,

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Speaker 1: We've got a trade deadline that's still taking place. It's

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Speaker 1: impacted some of the games we're going to talk about today.

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Speaker 1: We don't know if the Rams will be buyers are

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Speaker 1: sellers to me unless you're telling me, I looked at

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Speaker 1: my model and there's a huge edge. This one feels

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Speaker 1: like a total pass.

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Speaker 2: No. I have no idea what to make the number.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if Stafford's playing or not, and that

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Speaker 2: the line says he's not right. This line is telling

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Speaker 2: you that Stafford's not playing, So exactly if we're going

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Speaker 2: to bet it off of that, I guess I lean

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Speaker 2: towards green Bay. But it's like, if it gets up

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Speaker 2: to three and a half, even when the backup the Rams,

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Speaker 2: how do we not take it? Like? Who the hell

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Speaker 2: is green Bay to be favorite at three and a half,

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Speaker 2: So it's weird. It's just stuck at three. Coming into this,

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Speaker 2: I wanted to back green Bay. I know it's like

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Speaker 2: trying to catch where we say catch a falling knife,

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Speaker 2: but that way where it's like, you know, green Bay

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Speaker 2: is not as bad as they've looked, like, there's just

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Speaker 2: little things they need to correct and they can get

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Speaker 2: her right. They've just they've been playing sloppy, like offensively,

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Speaker 2: the penalties defensively, just not getting in the right holes,

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Speaker 2: and you know, they're just it's all there for green Bay,

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Speaker 2: they just haven't put together yet. On the flip side

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Speaker 2: of the Rams, you know, it's mcveigh's working magic. He's

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Speaker 2: taking a crap team and making them kind of relevant

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Speaker 2: and competitive. Last week was the first real blowout of

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Speaker 2: the season for them, Like that was the first game

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Speaker 2: that really got embarrassed. So I hope they're not buyers

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Speaker 2: of the Rams. I hope they're still selling because, like

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Speaker 2: to me, if Stafford is injured, it's over, Like the guy.

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Speaker 2: The guy is the reason you guys are even relevant.

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Speaker 2: So as an Eagles fan, selfishly, we've been linked to

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Speaker 2: get Aaron Donald That would be incredible if they somehow

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Speaker 2: made that work and got Aaron Donald. But yeah, right now,

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Speaker 2: we don't know what they're doing, but they could by

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Speaker 2: the time people hear this, could have sold off a

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Speaker 2: couple guys from their team, this RAMS team, and then

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Speaker 2: we know, Okay, Stafford's injured. They're probably not taking this

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Speaker 2: game series. But I'm with Chad, no play for me

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Speaker 2: right now at this number. At three, all right, we.

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Speaker 1: Still ow people Assignon says, we still owe people an

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Speaker 1: exec decision. Milman's looking for a repeat of his Dallas Cowboys'

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Speaker 1: exec decision performance from last week. Have an opinion on

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Speaker 1: this next game, and I want to get some recency bias.

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Speaker 1: We're going to wash away a recency bias. Washington at

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Speaker 1: New England New England minus three. You and I are

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Speaker 1: both very disappointed in Ron Rivera, and we would like

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Speaker 1: to tell him that you were really angry with Ron

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Speaker 1: Rivera about his game management because we had the Commanders

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Speaker 1: plus six and a half. He should have gone for

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Speaker 1: two when they were down fourteen and didn't go for two,

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Speaker 1: so that cost us in the contest, and it got

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Speaker 1: us to a push because we had plus seven in

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Speaker 1: real life. But I like Ron Rivera in this spot

308
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Speaker 1: because it is your hatred for Ron Rivera more intense

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Speaker 1: than your lack of confidence in mac Jones.

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Speaker 2: My first thing is pade fade Washington. Why wouldn't you

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Speaker 2: want to take Washington as a big dog, right? Didn't

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Speaker 2: they just look incredible against the Eagles? Their offense is

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Speaker 2: thrown it all over the field. I mean, there's three

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Speaker 2: and a half's right now, Chad. If you like what

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Speaker 2: they're doing, you can go grab plus three and a half,

316
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Speaker 2: which why wouldn't everyone do? The Patriots are terrible? Why

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Speaker 2: they have this big of a favorite. Everyone's gonna come

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Speaker 2: in on Washington. Yeah, I'm grabbing the minus to right now.

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Speaker 2: This Patriots team, it's.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, I know, Oh my god.

321
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Speaker 2: Sam Howe plays really well against the Eagles, but usually

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Speaker 2: the kid doesn't do this right. I mean, we have

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Speaker 2: a couple of games here where he has performed well,

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Speaker 2: but he's just under pressure a lot, and that pressure

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Speaker 2: turns into turnover. So this past week he looked great,

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Speaker 2: but we've already seen it where he does these kind

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Speaker 2: of games where he looks incredible and then the next

328
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Speaker 2: game he just falls off the cliff. I mean, I

329
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Speaker 2: think the last time they played the Eagles. I'd have

330
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Speaker 2: to look at the rec but they basically lost to

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Speaker 2: three to the Eagles early in the year on a

332
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Speaker 2: short week. They went to Chicago and they lost forty

333
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Speaker 2: to twenty that same week. Like, Samuel couldn't complete against

334
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Speaker 2: the Bears defense. So that's just who he is. He's inconsistent,

335
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Speaker 2: he's up and down. They're seeming a team. They left

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Speaker 2: it all out there in that game. Now I'm getting

337
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Speaker 2: on a bi low spot on this Patriots team. So

338
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Speaker 2: you know, a couple of people are shocked by this number.

339
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Speaker 2: It's just the pros moving the pros of coming on

340
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Speaker 2: the Patriots. They've taken it from two and a half

341
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Speaker 2: up to three. Now it's going up to three and

342
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Speaker 2: a half. So it feels like good Books are telling

343
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Speaker 2: us something here. When they are making them that big

344
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Speaker 2: of a favorite where it's like Washington, they're they're selling

345
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Speaker 2: people off. Like by the time this show airs, they

346
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:39,359
Speaker 2: could have already gotten rid of Sweat and Young. I

347
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,120
Speaker 2: know they already moved sweat to the Bears.

348
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Speaker 1: They did move sweat, and so that's a reason to

349
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Speaker 1: not want to bet it. But to me, this is

350
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Speaker 1: about mac Jones. I don't think there's anything the Patriots

351
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Speaker 1: can do to scheme him to success. He's just fucking terrible.

352
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Speaker 1: He cannot make you a play. Like at some point

353
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Speaker 1: you got to just say mac Jones not a guy

354
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Speaker 1: who we can bet on.

355
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Speaker 2: It just feels like Washington's a sucker bet. They want

356
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Speaker 2: you to like Washington. My guy Evan just gave us

357
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:10,040
Speaker 2: a stat. QB's in their first ten career starts playing

358
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 2: on the road in New England against Belichick five and

359
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,479
Speaker 2: thirty one. Straight up, make the commitment. That's what our

360
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Speaker 2: goal is. That's all I really am about is trying

361
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Speaker 2: to win football games.

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Speaker 1: Here, you what an eight and sixty third time.

363
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Speaker 2: They want to scare you off for the three and

364
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Speaker 2: a half. But I'm doing my best here not to

365
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Speaker 2: let it scare me off.

366
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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell would like to know which quarterback is more

367
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Speaker 1: likely to put the ball on the correct nipple, Mac

368
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Speaker 1: Jones or Sam Howell. I think the question is who's nipple?

369
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Speaker 1: Is it an offensive players or a defensive players? That's

370
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Speaker 1: the question.

371
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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, we got them, Yeah we'll see.

372
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Speaker 1: I'm really curious to know how many sharp calls we

373
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Speaker 1: get about New England on Thursday. This is interesting. Tampa

374
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Speaker 1: at Houston. Houston's minus two and a half. We bet

375
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Speaker 1: this on Sunday night. We bet Tampa on Sunday night

376
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:05,879
Speaker 1: at two and a half. You had a very interesting

377
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 1: comment CJ. Stroud the past three games, you feel like

378
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,320
Speaker 1: the book might be out on him. So I looked

379
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 1: up his numbers. His QB rating is in the eighties

380
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,159
Speaker 1: versus one hundred plus three games prior, completion percentage in

381
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:22,080
Speaker 1: the fifties. He looks like a much different quarterback in

382
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 1: very critical moments of the game. And to be honest,

383
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 1: it's not that not that much different season long than Baker. Mayfield.

384
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:34,160
Speaker 1: Stats almost comparable in a lot of ways. Similar number

385
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,400
Speaker 1: of yards, similar number of touchdown passes Baker a couple more.

386
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:41,680
Speaker 1: I in T's these are guys who are like doing okay,

387
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:43,280
Speaker 1: but not doing great.

388
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be another week. People are gonna hite

389
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:47,600
Speaker 2: our picks. It's just it's just the way it is.

390
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:52,879
Speaker 2: But you gotta play the bucks. And I mean, you

391
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 2: nailed it right there. We're talking about Houston. But even

392
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 2: when I dove back in the numbers, it's like it

393
00:19:57,680 --> 00:19:59,199
Speaker 2: might not all be on CJ. It might just be

394
00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,439
Speaker 2: bad coaching, and that might be the biggest issue right

395
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,639
Speaker 2: now for Houston's offense, like they're OC might just be

396
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:07,199
Speaker 2: an idiot. No quarterback has put into more third and

397
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:12,679
Speaker 2: seven third downs right now than CJ. So they're failing

398
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,640
Speaker 2: on first down, they're failing on second down. He's putting

399
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:16,560
Speaker 2: them in long He's putting a rookie quarterback in long

400
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 2: distance a lot, and that that's an issue right now

401
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 2: for them, Like the guy and people don't understand how

402
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,400
Speaker 2: big of a difference it is from third and four,

403
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 2: third and three to third and seven, Like the drop

404
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 2: off of getting that first down is so huge mathematically,

405
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 2: So it makes sense to me dove into numbers about

406
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:34,679
Speaker 2: why CJ is struggling right now. I definitely blame the

407
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:37,919
Speaker 2: OC not putting CJ in the best position. He's not

408
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 2: really adjusting their offense. It's kind of been the same

409
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:44,199
Speaker 2: exact offense since week one. That's gonna catch up to you.

410
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 2: And we talked about Todd Bowles. He might be losing

411
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 2: a step right already. Already show over Ron River and

412
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,959
Speaker 2: Jack del Real. Like these old dcs, these old defensive coordinators,

413
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: they're they're not really keeping up with the new age offenses.

414
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 2: But in this matchup and a copycat league, he doesn't

415
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 2: need to do much. He needs a copular teams and

416
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 2: put his teams in the best position. So yeah, the

417
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:09,679
Speaker 2: fact that it's still two and a half, you know,

418
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 2: I'm not going to make it, Simon says, but it's

419
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 2: definitely a game that me and Chad like will probably

420
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 2: be on. I was hoping the public would keep coming

421
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 2: in on this Houston team, and you know, looking right

422
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 2: now at money wise, it seems like a decent amount

423
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 2: of money's coming in on them. So maybe this could

424
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 2: move up to three. But yeah, right now I have

425
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 2: a little bet on two and a half at Tampa.

426
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 2: I'll just keep waiting hoping this gets up to three.

427
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 1: Dogs with totals below forty two, of which this game

428
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 1: is won. Nine games this week since twenty eighteen, that

429
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 1: is sixty the Dogs cover sixty one percent of the time.

430
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 1: This includes this week games we've talked about Tennessee the Rams,

431
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 1: Tampa Washington, five other games that we have yet to

432
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,879
Speaker 1: talk about. One of those games Arizona at Cleveland. The

433
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 1: Josh Dobbs era may be over reports that he is

434
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 1: being traded to the Vikings. That happened as we came

435
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:08,679
Speaker 1: on air. So Evan is giving us a correct okay pass? Please, Cleveland?

436
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 1: Mine is eight You beting a quarterback we don't even

437
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 1: know as a huge dog on the road against an

438
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,920
Speaker 1: historically great defense. Are we walking away from this? I

439
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 1: don't I don't want to. I don't want to play

440
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 1: this game.

441
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 2: I might make Shack put Cleveland in come Sunday.

442
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 1: This this is I would play if I wanted to.

443
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 2: If this really is this cartoon making his first start

444
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 2: for the Cardinals, not Caler Murray. Oh my god, what

445
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 2: what an incredible gift from the Cardinals team to this

446
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 2: Cleveland team where they can keep resting. You know, who

447
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,919
Speaker 2: knows what's happening on Watson's shoulder, but this is perfect

448
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 2: for them. They can send him another week. PG can

449
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 2: come in and yes, PJ completely lost that game. People

450
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 2: didn't say, we didn't talk about it enough like that.

451
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 2: They should have won that game. Them having those three

452
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 2: turners against the Seahawks. Y, he was horrible. That was

453
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 2: a train wreck of a game. They can just scheme

454
00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 2: this game up against this Cardinals team where they don't

455
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:01,360
Speaker 2: even to put him in the position to even need

456
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 2: to be make those passes right, Like this should be

457
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 2: a cake walk game Tune Man, Mitress or Chat. He sucks.

458
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 2: He fucking sucks in every way, So that makes me

459
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 2: feel good, Like this is such a terrible spot to

460
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 2: be and this is his first start, going up against

461
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 2: one of the best d lines on football, I mean,

462
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett. I can't imagine him watching film this week

463
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,439
Speaker 2: and being like, I can't believe I get to go

464
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 2: against this kid making his first start. Not gonna let

465
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 2: the big numbers scare me off. F it's Tune even

466
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 2: eight and a half, I might be able to be convinced.

467
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 2: Could we get burned like that Will Levis thing? Yes,

468
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,239
Speaker 2: stupid shit happens all the time. Yeah, Will Lovis had

469
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 2: the talent to be our first round pick. This kid

470
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,360
Speaker 2: Tune never had that kind of talent. So again, I'll

471
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,120
Speaker 2: bet Cleveland already took the seven and a half. I'll

472
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 2: bet the eight. No still know James Connor still knows

473
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 2: zach Ertz. Like it's just it's bad rare for the Cardinals.

474
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 2: So they got this crazy backdoor lucky cover last week.

475
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:57,959
Speaker 2: I already kind of wanted to fade him this week.

476
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 2: Now it's like a like if it's tune, don't be

477
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 2: shocked we take a huge favorite in the contest this week.

478
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 2: I just I love the spot for Cleveland, all right.

479
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell had Clayton Tune in a college fantasy league.

480
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 1: That's why he feels so familiar with Clayton Tune and

481
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 1: if Caago Bears visiting the New Orleans Saints. Saints are

482
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 1: seven and a half point favorite. Sunday night, you said,

483
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 1: I can't believe I'm saying this, Chad. I like the

484
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 1: Bears of plus six. I was surprised you wanted to

485
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 1: go in on the Bears so early because they were

486
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 1: playing that night. We knew they were going to look terrible.

487
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: The number is now going up to seven seven and

488
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 1: a half. Tyson Invasion is playing again. It doesn't look terrible.

489
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:40,239
Speaker 2: You know.

490
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 1: My favorite thing about him is that he lives to

491
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 1: play another play. Suddenly, the Saints team like looks like

492
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 1: they're doing what we thought they would do as you predicted,

493
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 1: which is potentially win the NFC South. The Bears just

494
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 1: traded for Montes Sweat Classic Bears desperation, thinking they're smarter

495
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 1: than everybody moved like Chase Claypool last year. Let's give

496
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: up a high pick for a guy whose contract is

497
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 1: up at the end of the year. So now we

498
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 1: got to decide we got to give him the bag.

499
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 1: Is he going to be the best defensive end opportunity

500
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:16,959
Speaker 1: to throw money at in the next twelve months, Chicago Bears?

501
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 2: Is he?

502
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 1: Is this the plan? Why do you like the Bears?

503
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 2: Here? We got God, I was hoping it was gonna

504
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 2: be Fields and the number is gonna come down. I felt

505
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 2: like they felt like they hung that number just because

506
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 2: you know, it was this backup quarterback playing for them again. Yeah,

507
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 2: Bears fans are broken, Like Chad's brain's broken. He thought

508
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 2: a guy throwing the ball into the stands is a

509
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 2: good read because he's not turning the ball over Like

510
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 2: you're just your brain's broken.

511
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: That's how low my expectations are.

512
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, And like even whatever idiot was calling the game

513
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 2: was like I think it was Collinsworth was like, yeah,

514
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 2: and Justin Fields can learn something here from this kid.

515
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 2: How to run this offense and when it's not there,

516
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 2: live to play another down and just throw the ball

517
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 2: out of bounce. It's like it ain't justin Field. This

518
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 2: just feel this is the reason this Bears is a

519
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 2: bad team. It's just all across the board. The Bears

520
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 2: are just bad. So yeah, I was hoping it was

521
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,959
Speaker 2: gonna be fields, it was gonna be a nice spot.

522
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 2: I luckily I put a penny on the plus six.

523
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 2: Maybe I'll just stay away from this game. I just

524
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 2: I got no faith right now in your guys offense.

525
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 2: Even in the Chargers game, there were so many opportunities

526
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 2: and they just couldn't They couldn't get a rhythm, they

527
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 2: couldn't get they couldn't string together multiple good drives. And

528
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:31,159
Speaker 2: that's just what life is like when you're playing a

529
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 2: D two quarterback in the NFL. Like this kid, Sure

530
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 2: he can make some throws, right, I mean, the kid

531
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 2: has been playing quarterback his whole life. He can make

532
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 2: some throws, but you're surrounding him with just trash, Like

533
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 2: there's just it's a bad O line. You got a

534
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 2: really banged up running backs. You know, DJ still did

535
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 2: DJ stuff, right, I think he had over fifty yards receiving.

536
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 2: But against the Saints, it was like, man, I was

537
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 2: just hoping to catch a Saints here in a bad spot,

538
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 2: Like they just had a huge win now come home.

539
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 2: I thought they were going to overlook this Bearer's team.

540
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 2: It was going to be a nice spot to take them.

541
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 2: But we'll we'll just stay away. I just there's no

542
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 2: way I can take this kid on the road here,

543
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 2: even though it's seven and a half and I'm begging

544
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 2: myself to do it. It's like, you know, you should

545
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 2: take the Bears here. I can't make this one of

546
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 2: our five. I can't ask the people to listen to

547
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 2: their show to bet this Bears team. So me and

548
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 2: Chad will probably bet it, but I don't think any

549
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 2: of you should.

550
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 1: I'm so glad you said all that, because, honest to God,

551
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 1: as I was doing all my research yesterday, I kept

552
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 1: thinking to myself, what am I missing? Like, I can't

553
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 1: tell you, Simon. I went into like a twenty minute

554
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 1: rabbit hole. Because for those listening, I try not to

555
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 1: talk to you too much between shows because I want

556
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:52,239
Speaker 1: our conversations here to be as fresh as possible. So

557
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:54,959
Speaker 1: there are times during the day, and especially like all

558
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 1: day Monday, when I'm starting to bet games where I

559
00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 1: think I have there's an advantage in the number where

560
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:01,239
Speaker 1: I want to be texting you and being like Hey,

561
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:02,360
Speaker 1: what do you think of this? What do you think

562
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 1: of this? And I don't want to do it because

563
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 1: I want to get your perspective here. I could not

564
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: find a reason why you were thinking the Bears were

565
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 1: a good spot in this game. So I'm so glad

566
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 1: to hear all of this. Here's the problem. Derek Carr

567
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: as a favorite eighteen thirty four and two against the spread,

568
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 1: worst of all quarterbacks the past twenty years as a

569
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 1: favorite seventeen twenty nine and two before he joined the Saints.

570
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: With the Saints, he's won five and one. He hasn't

571
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: had a year above five hundred against the spread as

572
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 1: a favorite since twenty sixteen.

573
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I'll take the seven and a half. I

574
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 2: just don't know if I put in the contest Derek Carr,

575
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 2: I'll always make excuses for him just because I like

576
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 2: I like Derek. I think he played as well. I mean,

577
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 2: I don't know if I like him as a person.

578
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 2: He might be one of the biggest do shoes in

579
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 2: the world, but as a player, I like him. And

580
00:28:55,640 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 2: he's gone from John Gruden to Josh McDaniels to now

581
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: Dennis Allen, Like it's just an absolute train wreck. Of

582
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 2: coaching this guy's career really totally.

583
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: I know we owe you a Simon says, we owe

584
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 1: you an executive decision. I think the latter half of

585
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 1: the slate is much more loaded for games that we

586
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: like and we're interested in than the first. So we're

587
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 1: going to get to it. First game up Seattle at Baltimore.

588
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 1: Baltimore a five and a half point favorite.

589
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the Gods will not save you.

590
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: We'd liked this for a little taste on Sunday, and

591
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 1: I gotta be honest, I haven't really pulled the trigger

592
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: on it. There's something even though I know Seattle is

593
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 1: the right side on the field and trend wise they're

594
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: the right side, but there's something that's holding me back

595
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 1: and I can't figure out what it is. And they've

596
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: since traded for Leonard Williams to make a rush defense

597
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 1: an overall defense that is actually pretty good better both

598
00:29:55,800 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 1: defenses top seven grading out per Pro Football Focus. Seattle's

599
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: offense overall is grading out slightly higher than Baltimore's. Baltimore's

600
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: rush defense, which is what Seattle is great at top

601
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 1: ten in the league, is middle of the pack. Lamar

602
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: not good when favored by more than three points. I

603
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: don't know why I'm afraid to bet the Seattle Seahawks

604
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 1: here like comfortably.

605
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm right there with you, like I bet it.

606
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 2: I mean, I've been been betting it and it hasn't

607
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 2: really moved. So I'm right there with you, Chad. Maybe

608
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 2: we'll have more to say on this on Thursday, but

609
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: right now it's I'm right there with chat. It's like

610
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 2: I want to I want to be on Seattle. I

611
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 2: like Seattle. I like the points with Seattle. It's a

612
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 2: nice spot to say that Baltimore, you know, not saying

613
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 2: who have they played? But they've been catching these everything

614
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 2: they played, They've been catching up the right moments, right,

615
00:30:54,560 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 2: and you know, the fear with taking the Seahawks team

616
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 2: is Geno like Gino sometimes looks like the Gino Smiths

617
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 2: and the Jets and not the Geno Smith from Seahawks,

618
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 2: which is like a really comproole quarterback. Incredible touch passes.

619
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 2: I mean this, when he's right, it's incredible watch, you know,

620
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 2: like the rhythm he has Lockett and Metcalf, the trust

621
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 2: he has with those guys incredible. But then you'll see

622
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 2: him just have a whole quarter like he had against Cleveland,

623
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 2: where it's like he's uncomfortable, he can't make any reads,

624
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 2: he's putting balls in the dirt, he's he's just bad.

625
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 2: So the number makes sense when you really look at it,

626
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 2: where it's like, I mean, Chat talked on some day.

627
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 2: I thought the number should be three and a half.

628
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 2: I didn't really understand why it was so big. It

629
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 2: kind of makes sense now when you go through the numbers,

630
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 2: where you know the Ravens are, by a lot of

631
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 2: metrics and a lot of people's models, the number one

632
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 2: team of football right now, like they've been playing the best.

633
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 2: Their offenses played really well, even their defense. They've had

634
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 2: some injuries and they've been playing through and they've played

635
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 2: really well too. Uh man, it's a tough one, Chat,

636
00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 2: So maybe we'll talk more of on Thursday about this one.

637
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 2: But as you say here right now, I'm with Chat,

638
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 2: I'm stilling the Seahawks. It's just I'm like him, I'm

639
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 2: leaking a little bit of confidence on it.

640
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 1: A little bit. I'm not sure it's a contest play.

641
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 1: I actually haven't bet at all yet on the Seahawks.

642
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 1: Even a five and a half. I need more intel.

643
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 1: I need someone who in Jackman with some confidence. All right,

644
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: So Minnesota is traded for Josh Dobbs. They're on the

645
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 1: road at Atlanta five point dogs. We don't know the status,

646
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 1: at least I don't know as we talk about this,

647
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 1: the status of Desmond Ridder. But he did get Ben

648
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 1: for Taylor Heineke concussion protocol that he cleared. Desmond Ridder.

649
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: Josh Jobbs is a gamer. To me, I think I

650
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 1: lean Vikings here.

651
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, all those points come on, we gotta take the Vikings.

652
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 2: And it's the first game too, like they should get

653
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 2: up for this game. It's like, again, in a couple

654
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 2: of weeks, the Vikings might have totally quit in the season.

655
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 2: The boys have all given up and that's that. But

656
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 2: you know, this seems like a move they're making here

657
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 2: where it's like they think they can be competitive in

658
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 2: this week. So if it is Hall, if it's the

659
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 2: backup quarterback, is the starter for Minnesota, totally off this one.

660
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 2: I want to have a penny on this game. I

661
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 2: want even to watch this game. But if you're thinking

662
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 2: of grabbing Atlanta now, just in case it is Hall,

663
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 2: I can't fault you for it. Like that's a big deal.

664
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 2: This kid looked totally lost when he came in for

665
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 2: the Vikings, couldn't move the ball at all. The fact

666
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 2: that he used to go to Atlanta where it's loud

667
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 2: and play his first start on the road, that's a

668
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 2: nightmare scenario for this kid. If he does have to

669
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 2: start this game. So it is early in the week,

670
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 2: people it's Tuesday, they just trade it for the guy.

671
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 2: We don't have enough info really make a play in

672
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 2: this game, but my gut is telling me I want

673
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 2: to be on Minnesota. If it is Dobbs, if it's Hall,

674
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 2: I'm off this one.

675
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 1: Dobbs played two weeks without even knowing who his offensive

676
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: linemen were. He can jump into any scenario. He's a

677
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 1: professional football quarterback. Here's an interesting stat applies to Minnesota

678
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 1: and Atlanta as well as the next game. We're going

679
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: to talk about India Carolina, where Carolina is a two

680
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 1: and a half point dog Atlanta. In both started out

681
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 1: as underdogs, they are now favorites. One of our favorite

682
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 1: stats of the year, teams who go from underdog to

683
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:13,919
Speaker 1: favorites forty three point eighty three against the spread since

684
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, including seven or eleven this year, Atlanta, India

685
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:22,879
Speaker 1: and the LA Chargers three games in that scenario this week,

686
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: one more reason to bet on Josh Dobbs and the Vikings.

687
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:30,879
Speaker 1: If it is Josh Dobbs So India Carolina, Carolina showed

688
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 1: us something. I don't know what. India showed us something.

689
00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 1: I don't know what. I hate this game. This is

690
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,760
Speaker 1: the Corner TV game of the week, and.

691
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 2: That is why it's my favorite game of the week.

692
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 2: Simon says, Carolina Panthers do it. We do what science says.

693
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 2: Love Love love the spot for the Panthers, basically the

694
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 2: OC who took over last week. The biggest change he

695
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,320
Speaker 2: made to that offense was motion. Like he's coming from

696
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 2: the Andy Reid de Sean McVay coaching tree of motion.

697
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 2: Like he loves motion. And you saw last week with

698
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,399
Speaker 2: Carolina completely moving guys over the board, and I love

699
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 2: that for Bryce, like that was such a big deal

700
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 2: to him. A little scary back in Carolina after their

701
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,720
Speaker 2: first win. But I just love the way their offense

702
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 2: is playing, and even the defensively against Houston they played

703
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 2: really well and looking at this match for the Colts team,

704
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 2: they feel like they've been like again those see from

705
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 2: the Eagles last year, that's who they're new. That's who

706
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:30,919
Speaker 2: became the head coach of this Colts team. And he's

707
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 2: done wonders, Like even when Minshew stepped in, their offense

708
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 2: really has not missed a beat since Richardson's been out,

709
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 2: Like they're still putting up points, still moving the ball

710
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 2: really well. This feels like a gamer a Minshe's gonna

711
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 2: get caught. Like the people people are drinking the coolie,

712
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 2: they're buying the hype. I mean, look at all the money,

713
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 2: all the tickets coming in on the Colts as our

714
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 2: road favorite in Carolina. Sometimes it's just too easy. You

715
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 2: don't need to do any of the work. Yeah, it's

716
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 2: the three. That'd be amazing if this got the three,

717
00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 2: three and a half for the Panthers. But I'm taking

718
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 2: it and a half because I know the pros are

719
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 2: gonna come in on the Panthers. I expect this number

720
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 2: to go down by the time we do next Thursday's show.

721
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 2: So this is this is a game I love, and

722
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:10,840
Speaker 2: I barely put any money on it because I'm just

723
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 2: letting the public and other pros move this number up.

724
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 2: Give me that three. I'm gonna come in so heavy

725
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 2: on this Panthers team. But I love this spot for

726
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,399
Speaker 2: this Panthers team. A nice a nice buying a team

727
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 2: that they were just shited for so many weeks. People

728
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 2: still don't trust them and they don't realize that oc

729
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:31,439
Speaker 2: he's a difference out of Carolina. Like the fact they're

730
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,959
Speaker 2: doing motion putting Bryce and outside the pocket right letting

731
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 2: him use his legs. Now, I have to see over

732
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 2: these huge aust up the linemen. It's a big deal

733
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 2: to me. So I am I'm drinking the kool aid

734
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 2: right now for the Panthers, and I love this number.

735
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: Well, look, there is a three available out there. It's

736
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 1: priced a little bit high. You know, they're at a

737
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 1: legal book. I encourage people to go check it out,

738
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: but there is a three available if you want to

739
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 1: try to get it. That's what I would say about that.

740
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 1: I feel like you totally convinced me, and almost felt

741
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 1: like a little embarrassed and ashamed that I was saying

742
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 1: I wanted to skip over this game, partially because Matt

743
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,880
Speaker 1: Mitchell is already yelling us in the chat. But of

744
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 1: course you're right with what you just said, and with

745
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 1: the fact that Indianapolis started as the dog and is

746
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: now the favorite. Of course we're going to do this,

747
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: so now I'm excited. Now I'm all in Go Panthers,

748
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,399
Speaker 1: all right. I mentioned in the beginning of the show,

749
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 1: we got some feedback this week that is really bugging

750
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. He never does this, but Ohio State four

751
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 1: four four gave us a review that said, why are

752
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 1: we shrinking the amount of games discussed? Are we not

753
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:49,720
Speaker 1: putting in as much research? And I want to be like, dude,

754
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,360
Speaker 1: I'm doing more research than ever. And we cover every

755
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:58,879
Speaker 1: single game, literally every single game. He's questioning, why don't

756
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:02,439
Speaker 1: we Why don't we cover every game anymore? Dude? That's

757
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: what this whole podcast is. Every game gets covered, then

758
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 1: we cover them again on Thursday, most of them, and

759
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 1: a lot of them on Sunday night, looking ahead to

760
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 1: the next week too. Leave any feedback you want, but

761
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,239
Speaker 1: please give us five stars. That's all we ask. Even

762
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 1: if you hate us, say the meanest things, it's all

763
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 1: good feedback. Give us five stars. New York Giants at

764
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders did exactly what we wanted

765
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 1: us to do, what we wanted them to do last

766
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: night they are now two and a half point favorites

767
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 1: on the road against the Giants. The fuck is with

768
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 1: this week? Like, we don't know who the quarterback is

769
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 1: going to be in this game. Either shouldn't be Daniel Jones.

770
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 1: Leonard Williams was traded. This Raiders team was terrible. We

771
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 1: don't know if Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be the quarterback.

772
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 1: If you say to me, ah, now we got to

773
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 1: take the.

774
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 2: Raiders, you are supposed to take him here. But I'm

775
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 2: with jaded. I don't know who the quarterback is for

776
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 2: either team. It's all bad, and I want to take

777
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 2: the Raiders here because it does feel like it's going

778
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:03,879
Speaker 2: to be not Taylor. It might be this. I mean

779
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 2: they might who knows. I have no idea who the

780
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 2: Giants quarterback is. I know that Daniel Jones is trying

781
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 2: to get back, but apparently he is some type of

782
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 2: neck injury where he can't fill his arm sometimes, or

783
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 2: like some type of nerve damage. Like that's a that's

784
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 2: a big deal. I know he's trying to get back,

785
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 2: and every week they say he's day to day and

786
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 2: no one really knows what's happening. But I'm with you.

787
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 2: We can just keep it moving because we don't know

788
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 2: what to do with this game. But a game I

789
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked to end up on Vegas. It's just

790
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 2: a Bilow's spot. The total right now is thirty seven

791
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 2: to thirty seven and a half, which is a key number.

792
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 2: I take that under thirty seven and a half, like

793
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:40,879
Speaker 2: twenty to seventeen sounds about right for this game right here,

794
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 2: So if you want to grab it early under that

795
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 2: definitely be one.

796
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 1: I'd take Dallas at Philadelphia. The Philadelphia Eagles are three

797
00:39:52,400 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: point favorites. Simon, this is my executive decision. Wow, take

798
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles last week. I love Dallas and we

799
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:10,399
Speaker 1: hated Philly. This week, of course, I want to back

800
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 1: Philly and fade Dallas right. Better roster, better coaching. I

801
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 1: know we have talked about how the Eagles don't look right,

802
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 1: but this is a classic Cowboys letdown spot. Even though

803
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 1: we think Philly has been vulnerable, they are basically top

804
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 1: five in every offensive and defensive line Advanced metric, top

805
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 1: ten overall in every offensive and defensive production metric. The

806
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 1: Cowboys beat up on an over valued Rams team in

807
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: the exact right spot. I think the Eagles. They escaped

808
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 1: with a win against Washington. It was a trap game.

809
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 1: This is a spot to reassert dominance. They are a

810
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:59,959
Speaker 1: better team mentally, I believe than the Cowboys. The Cowboy

811
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 1: could not have managed the same kinds of struggles the

812
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:05,959
Speaker 1: Eagles have had and gotten through the way they've gotten through.

813
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 1: Give me the Eagles minus three, executive decision? Are you

814
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 1: with me?

815
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 2: I honestly, I'm leaninging towards the Cowboys.

816
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I know.

817
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 2: I know, but I'll get there with you. On the Eagles.

818
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 2: My fear right now is just hurts taken away. Hurts

819
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 2: his legs is a big deal. And you know they

820
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 2: made it work last week. If you go back and look,

821
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 2: a lot of that stuff was just him thrown up

822
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,439
Speaker 2: the AJ and AJ making plays and that's that's that's

823
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 2: a big flip of like they wouldn't have covered that

824
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 2: game if AJ didn't play out of this world and

825
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 2: have all those insane catches. And I originally I was thinking, Okay,

826
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 2: this number will open up too, We'll great, We'll get

827
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 2: great value on this Eagles team. But now it's up

828
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 2: to three and the value is trying to shift a

829
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 2: little bit towards the Cowboys. But I'm with you, chat.

830
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 2: It's like, I'll try not to let this one scare

831
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 2: me off. I'll back the Eagles here. We've seen it

832
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 2: time and time again. Dak in these kind of games,

833
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 2: these moments, doesn't show up like she had said. He

834
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 2: beats up on bad teams and then where he really

835
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:15,879
Speaker 2: needs to show up and play against good teams, tends

836
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 2: to get out played in our class. So yeah, as

837
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 2: an Eagles fan, I'm super excited because these two teams,

838
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 2: there's always been an excuse whenever we play each other.

839
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 2: Like I think last year Dak was hurt, we played

840
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 2: Cooper Rush and then when the Eagles went to play

841
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:32,840
Speaker 2: Dallas Minshew was playing and Hurts was out. It's like

842
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:36,360
Speaker 2: it's been a while since we've had both these teams healthy.

843
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 2: You knows the best in their you know their class,

844
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 2: like they're both very the top right now. The NFC

845
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 2: should be a great game. But yeah, I, like I

846
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 2: say all the time, I'm gonna support you. Obviously I

847
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 2: want to be on the Eagles side. It's just I'm

848
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 2: not showing a crazy amount of value right now, but

849
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 2: on the number, Like I have this number right where

850
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,879
Speaker 2: it's at I have it at three, so like technically, yeah,

851
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 2: if it switches up three and a half, I think

852
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 2: value is on the Cowboys. But it'll be hard not

853
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:07,279
Speaker 2: to take the Eagles in the contest of minus three

854
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 2: and a half for minus two and a half. It's

855
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 2: just a nice spot to back them against a Dallas team,

856
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,479
Speaker 2: like you just said, Like they're coming off their best

857
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 2: game of the year. They're gonna be filling themselves all week.

858
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 2: Where the Eagles they felt like they got away with one, right,

859
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 2: they kind of stole one there. It's not gonna be

860
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 2: much celebration. It's all going to be getting ready for

861
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 2: Dallas week. So you know, Dak Prescotte had a quote saying,

862
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,279
Speaker 2: I don't mind poking the bear pour some honey on me.

863
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 2: It's really tough talk for a guy who's never played

864
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 2: at a conference championship game and lost to a seventh

865
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:40,879
Speaker 2: round You got outplayed by a seventh round pick last

866
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 2: year in the playoffs, So come on, Dak's asking for it.

867
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go back on my guy here, Chad, and

868
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 2: take the Eagles minus three.

869
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 1: I'm with you on the Panthers, You're with me on

870
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Forever and ever, we are intertwining a true

871
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 1: couple of really smart guys. By the way, Ian Rappaport,

872
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:04,799
Speaker 1: according to our chats reporting Chase Young being traded to

873
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers for a third round pick, So

874
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 1: Washington basically unloading their edges right now. Also, the Chicago

875
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:18,359
Speaker 1: Bears believe Montes Sweat is more valuable than Chase Young.

876
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:21,800
Speaker 1: How will that turn out? We don't know, I agree,

877
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 1: don't know at this point. We don't know, and.

878
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 2: The market is too. I mean, I think he's going

879
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 2: for a third round pick, fourth round pick, compared to Sweat,

880
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:32,359
Speaker 2: who went for a second.

881
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. The market is saying that Montes

882
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:39,440
Speaker 1: Sweat is more valuable than Chase Young. But right now,

883
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 1: I do think that changes the calculus on this Washington

884
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:45,399
Speaker 1: New England bet. Maybe we do want to Russian bet.

885
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: Maybe you do want to make New England. Your signon

886
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 1: says at three. But Simon, can you name the fast

887
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 1: growing ticketing app in the United States?

888
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:56,800
Speaker 2: Game Time?

889
00:44:57,440 --> 00:45:00,360
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love Time

890
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 1: for two reasons. One they sponsored this show. Number two

891
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,879
Speaker 1: because I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've

892
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 1: got amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets,

893
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:12,200
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894
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 1: going to open Game Time right now from my house.

895
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 1: I'm doing it, folks. You can see me looking down

896
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 1: if you're watching on the YouTube. Right now, I can

897
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:26,960
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898
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 1: see the New York Knickerbockers about one hundred and thirty bucks.

899
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 1: And I gotta tell you, if you haven't been, that

900
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 1: is a great price to see a dynamic team. No

901
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:40,839
Speaker 1: matter where you live, download the Game Time app, get

902
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 1: out and have some fun this week. Go sweat your

903
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:46,719
Speaker 1: bets live and in person, and you can redeem code

904
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchased terms apply,

905
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,839
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906
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed.

907
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 1: All right, Buffalo Hello at Cincinnati. This game has moved

908
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 1: up to three Sunday night. This game was available at

909
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 1: Cincinnati plus one and a half. I bet that when

910
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 1: we were doing the recording of the podcast on Sunday

911
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 1: it was since a minus one and a half. We

912
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 1: didn't understand the line. Betters have since poured in on

913
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:28,719
Speaker 1: since Ey. The Bills defense is severely hampered right now,

914
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 1: and the Bengals looked significantly healthier after the bye week

915
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: dismantling the Niners. I think there are moments when fans

916
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 1: and betters overreact, and there are games that are statements,

917
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:42,400
Speaker 1: and the Bengals on Sunday was more to me of

918
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 1: a statement than fans seeing something and then overreacting to it.

919
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:51,919
Speaker 2: Thoughts, I mean, Chad Middleman. Millman is trying to take

920
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 2: up play a middle here, and I hate you for it.

921
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 2: Why don't you just enjoy the value I had on Cincy.

922
00:46:56,600 --> 00:46:59,000
Speaker 2: You had a great number and now you're trying to

923
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 2: hit a middle What do you do? I did?

924
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 1: I did? I also bet the Bills of plus three.

925
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:07,000
Speaker 1: I got, you know, I got greedy last night. I

926
00:47:07,040 --> 00:47:13,200
Speaker 1: thought to myself, don't be like, don't be emotional about

927
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 1: a bet just because I loved it on Sunday night

928
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 1: and I was thrilled at the number. Play the positions

929
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:23,919
Speaker 1: and take advantage of opportunities, and so I didn't want

930
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:26,840
Speaker 1: to just let one slide because there are games we

931
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,879
Speaker 1: pass on all the time where like I don't regret it. Right,

932
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:32,839
Speaker 1: there were the games we didn't bet Arizona plus eight

933
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 1: and a half and you know, a few weeks ago,

934
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,799
Speaker 1: and and like we wondered to ourselves why didn't we

935
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 1: do that? And like when I'm doing my tallying of

936
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 1: my wins and losses the next day, I wasn't thinking,

937
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:45,719
Speaker 1: oh God, if only I had this game, I'd be

938
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 1: ex further ahead or whatever. But this one felt like

939
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 1: it could be a close game. I'm willing to take

940
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:55,760
Speaker 1: a shot. And if I if I counter myself out

941
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:59,239
Speaker 1: of making of winning winning one side, I'm okay with

942
00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:01,880
Speaker 1: it because I'm get in a pretty decent size. You

943
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 1: don't that often, you don't get three points in the middle.

944
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 2: I would just go with your Gutrido was which is

945
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:11,000
Speaker 2: back since he feels a little trappish. It went up

946
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:12,359
Speaker 2: to three. Now it's down to two and a half.

947
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:14,959
Speaker 2: A lot of books. But since he's just the better

948
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 2: team right now, it's all clicking for them. You know,

949
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 2: this ain't the Bills team are used to. This is

950
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 2: just a different version of them. They're just not They're

951
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:25,839
Speaker 2: not competitive on the defensive side. So yeah, maybe they'll

952
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 2: get the back door and hit the three for Chad

953
00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:31,080
Speaker 2: and I'll be kicking myself, but nothing chantering me. I like,

954
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 2: I like the Bengals. The only way I would take

955
00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 2: the Bills is if this got to three and a

956
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:37,360
Speaker 2: half four, But even then I'd still have a little

957
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:39,880
Speaker 2: pause where it's just like, I got no faith in

958
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 2: this Bill's team right now. They've just been playing with

959
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:44,799
Speaker 2: fire and like Josh Allen's been keeping them in the game.

960
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:47,360
Speaker 2: I got a lot of worries about Josh because it

961
00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 2: feels like now he's gonna be trying to do too much.

962
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 2: And even last week, like he thought he was gonna

963
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 2: out run this d end. The dude caught him. He

964
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:58,200
Speaker 2: yanked on his leg and again I'm no doctor, but

965
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 2: you could just tell that like he was scared for

966
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 2: a second, like he was just like, holy shit, my

967
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 2: leg just popped out of my hip. And he went

968
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 2: into the blue tent. They cleared him, he came back

969
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 2: out finished the game no issues, And I mean, well,

970
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 2: I guess there was some issues, right Their offense kind

971
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:14,520
Speaker 2: of stopped after that. But I have a lot of

972
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:17,240
Speaker 2: questions right now about the Bills. I have no questions

973
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 2: anymore about this since he team right My biggest fear

974
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:23,760
Speaker 2: was Joe Burrow wasn't healthy his heart. He was horrible

975
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 2: throwing the ball twenty yards downfield. It was all clicking

976
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 2: last week, like he was money on throws twenty yards downfield,

977
00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 2: moving the pockets, stepping up. So I've been I've been

978
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:35,839
Speaker 2: on a little bit of a heater on these Sunday

979
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 2: night games, like I've been nailing these Sunday night games.

980
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 2: That's honestly my only real fear where it's like every

981
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:42,959
Speaker 2: Sunday night. She just felt really easy, and this feels

982
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 2: like another easy bet where it's like you take SINCEY

983
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 2: at home under three, especially like two and a half.

984
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 2: How do we not put this in the contest? So yeah,

985
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 2: definitely like Cincy this week.

986
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 1: Now I feel like I got greedy, Yeah.

987
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:56,880
Speaker 2: But I get where you're coming from. I love a

988
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 2: good middle of anyone else. It just cracked me up

989
00:49:58,560 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 2: where it was like I was right there with you.

990
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:03,360
Speaker 2: I bet again you only could get pennies down on

991
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:06,839
Speaker 2: Sunday night, But how do you now love sincey? We

992
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 2: were getting about plus one and a half and then

993
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 2: minus one and a half at almost every book we

994
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 2: wanted to. But again, it sucks where It's like I

995
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:15,799
Speaker 2: worked all night, had runners running all night. The most

996
00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:18,160
Speaker 2: I get down it's twenty k. And that's what sucks

997
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 2: about those bet in tho Sunday nights, is like the

998
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:22,880
Speaker 2: books are never going to take big bets. It's just

999
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 2: it's just tough getting money down on good numbers. And

1000
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 2: now what do we see the numbers all the way

1001
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 2: up to three now, So that's what's so tough. I'

1002
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 2: betting these kind of numbers.

1003
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 1: I could only get down forty, and so that was

1004
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:35,239
Speaker 1: a little awkward for you and me because that might

1005
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 1: have been my money that was keeping you from getting

1006
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 1: more money down. So so for that, I apologize, all right.

1007
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 1: The last game on the board is the Chargers visiting

1008
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:51,319
Speaker 1: the Jets. The Chargers are now three point favorites on

1009
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:54,440
Speaker 1: the road, given what we know about the Chargers, given

1010
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 1: what we know about the Jets, giving the coaching mismatch,

1011
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 1: given the defensive mismatch, given the fact that the Jets

1012
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:03,400
Speaker 1: are at home, given the fact that the Chargers went

1013
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 1: from underdogs to favorites. I hate to say it, I

1014
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:09,960
Speaker 1: don't want to do it, and I think we got

1015
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 1: a lot of options. I like the Jets here.

1016
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:16,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, this was gonna be what Simon says, but

1017
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 2: like luckily that state at three, go go grab the Jets,

1018
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 2: Like this is a great spot to back them here.

1019
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:28,000
Speaker 2: Like they played terrible, their offense look terrible. You know,

1020
00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 2: it's just a bet on their defense or shut down

1021
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 2: the Chargers offense and they'll be able to run the

1022
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 2: ball against the Chargers. Like there's just there's a lot

1023
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 2: of things I like for this Jets from the Jets viewpoint,

1024
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 2: a lot of things I want to faith from the

1025
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 2: Charger standpoint. So don't be shocked that this is our

1026
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:44,840
Speaker 2: big ball is bet of the week on this Jets team.

1027
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 2: But it just feels like no one's gonna be on

1028
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:49,839
Speaker 2: this one. It's just gonna be me and you, a

1029
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 2: couple of the pros taking the Jets here in prime

1030
00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:54,399
Speaker 2: time at home against the Chargers team that everyone's back

1031
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 2: in on. Like they just you know, dominated this Bears team.

1032
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 2: I think I'm not positive his numbers were, but I

1033
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:05,879
Speaker 2: felt like he'd what three or four incompletions right now

1034
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 2: for the Chargers, and Herbert like he was just he

1035
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 2: looked like his old self against the Bears team. Now

1036
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 2: we have one of the best secondaries in all football.

1037
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,880
Speaker 2: One of the best secondaries to turn over the QBS,

1038
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:20,120
Speaker 2: and we've seen it. This team just gets something. They

1039
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:22,879
Speaker 2: play against quarterback, good quarterbacks. When they played against Hurts,

1040
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 2: when they played against Josh Allen, they played against Mahomes,

1041
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:28,720
Speaker 2: those were their best games of the year. The Jets

1042
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 2: defense like they really step it up, and they play

1043
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:34,239
Speaker 2: against good quarterbacks. Herbert's a good quarterback. I expect they're

1044
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:36,880
Speaker 2: going to step up. So the fact that it's still three,

1045
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 2: you know, maybe are jumping the gun a little early

1046
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 2: and grabbing the three and this could get the three

1047
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 2: and a half, but I have to grab it now

1048
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 2: just in case the pros came out on So I

1049
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:46,840
Speaker 2: do love this spot for this Jets team with Chad.

1050
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:50,480
Speaker 1: Great spot for the Jets chance to get to five

1051
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 1: and three, and against his mediocre team at home. It's

1052
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:59,560
Speaker 1: a really, really good spot for the Jets. As a reminder,

1053
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by bet three sixty five.

1054
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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Restrictions apply. Be sure to catch

1067
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Speaker 1: our next episode of The Favorites live on the Action

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Speaker 1: Network YouTube page this Thursday at eleven am Eastern, and

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Speaker 1: thank you for making us the number one sports betting

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Speaker 1: podcast and for keeping us there all season long. Download

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Speaker 1: us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe,

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Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever the hell you want,

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Speaker 1: just leave us. The five stars feedback is a gift

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Speaker 1: until Thursday eleven, Amy Stern I love you. Action Network

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Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

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Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem. Help us available twenty

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Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred gambler