1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Daily we bring you 3 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg Terminal. We're not gonna 6 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: show the chart right now because we don't want to 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 1: waste the second with Matthew Lozetti, chief US economist at 8 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 1: Deutsche Bank. But Matt, I look at corese c P 9 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: I and you've got to be kidding me. This is, 10 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: you know, the to use a fancy phrase of David 11 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 1: Fokas Landau would use, this is a teen tweets move 12 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: and a turnaround. There's no way there's a vector here. 13 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 1: So on the path it's six point three corps. What 14 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,480 Speaker 1: number do you need to see or you have John 15 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: Farrell's vector of disinflation. Yeah, So I think we shouldn't 16 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: over emphasize the zero point three. We've seen that a 17 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: few times over the past year and a half. But 18 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: I think when you do look at the underlying elements 19 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 1: of this data, there's some support there. So owners equivalent 20 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,559 Speaker 1: rent coming off a little bit. We saw health insurance 21 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 1: inflation come down, which was anticipated. You're seeing some of 22 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: the goods deflation as we were. You know, everybody anticipates 23 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: that we're going to see a power prices down, use 24 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 1: cars everybody knew was gonna be down. Household furnishing is 25 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 1: coming off. So I think the underlying elements of this 26 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: report are actually you know, they're they're good, they're supportive. 27 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: There's you know, some evidence that we are moving from 28 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: peak inflation down lower. Where where do we end up? 29 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 1: I think is the big question. But to John's point 30 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 1: on vector six ish core inflation, at what point do 31 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: you say, yeah, the arrows pointing down, is it five 32 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 1: point eight? Is it five point two? How much move 33 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 1: do you need to see in core to say vector 34 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 1: in place? So I think we can't look at the 35 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 1: year of a year data simply because you're building these 36 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: point six point seven prints that we've seen over the 37 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: past year. I think it's all about the month on 38 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: month prints, and I think the market is right to 39 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: focus on that. Um In those prints, you know we've 40 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: gotten I would say some broad based deceleration and a 41 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: lot of these categories I would expect the trim, mean 42 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: and medium measures do look better today. It does support 43 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: I think, what is the FEDS leaning towards wanting to 44 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: downshift in in December? And then as we get into 45 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: next year, you know, February March, it's all about can 46 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: we maintain some deceleration and will you begin to see 47 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: the labor market come into better balance over the next 48 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:25,799 Speaker 1: several months. And we're seeing the market down grade the 49 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 1: expectation for a seventy five basis point rate hike in December. 50 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: It seems like a fifty basis point rate hike is 51 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: being locked in as well as a lower terminal rate 52 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: than perhaps they were thinking just a couple of minutes 53 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 1: before this report came out. How much does that change 54 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: your assessment of how far the feder will have to go? 55 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: If we get ongoing down shift in the inflation reads, 56 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: if we get another softer than expected print in December, 57 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 1: does that cause you to rethink a at recession and 58 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:54,399 Speaker 1: be that it's going to be deep? Yeah? I think 59 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 1: the big if is do these into these continue because 60 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: we've seen these point three prints before, UM, but no 61 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: out if you continue to see these come off, UM, 62 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 1: it's certainly supportive for the Fed not having to get 63 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 1: too much higher levels. Our terminal rate has been at 64 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: four point nine percent. I think that still seems like 65 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,679 Speaker 1: a reasonable view at the moment um. We wrote a 66 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 1: piece yesterday. There's a lot of focus on financial conditions, 67 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 1: and certainly with equity markets really taking off here, there 68 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 1: will be a lot of focus on our financial conditions 69 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 1: easing in a way that Chapal does not want. What 70 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: I would highlight that is maybe a little bit different 71 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:26,679 Speaker 1: than that is the bank lending channel and we get 72 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: the Senior Loan Officer survey. It's a really good leading 73 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: indicator when you see tightening of lending standards on commercial 74 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: and industrial loans UM, commercial real estate UM. And we've 75 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: seen a material tightening there. So it's a question of 76 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: has the Fed done enough? How much more do they 77 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 1: need to do. The bank lending channel tells us you 78 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: may not need to have a materially higher terminal rate 79 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:48,839 Speaker 1: than than what's being priced. It's a three percent move 80 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 1: on some futures, it's a nineteen basis point twenty basis 81 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: point move in some places on the curve in the 82 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 1: bond market. Let me ask you this. You said something 83 00:03:57,440 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 1: that is of interest to make this gives the FETE 84 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: the spice to what that we're going to do anyway, 85 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: which is back away from seventy five basis point hikes. 86 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 1: If this FED had this data going into the last 87 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 1: meeting with that news conference has been any different, I 88 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: don't think so. I mean, you know, I think the 89 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 1: worry is when you downshift that you ease financial conditions 90 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 1: in a way kind of like where we saw in 91 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: July that is counterproductive from the Fed's perspective. This is 92 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,360 Speaker 1: one data point. We had points six the previous month. 93 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: This is point three. There are some encouraging elements within 94 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: this data point, so I definitely want to emphasize that, 95 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 1: but the FED needs to see more to to say, 96 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: you know, we we can decelerate them from fifty down 97 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: to twenty five and ultimately pause at some point. It 98 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: is something that I think helps them along that path um, 99 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: but it's no, it's not conclusive evidence. I think that 100 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 1: they can peak up at five percent and be fine 101 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: for this Watching this and listening right now, they won't 102 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 1: just have the hope that FED backs away from seventy 103 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: five and goes with fifty and this data. If we 104 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 1: get the data like this again on December thirteenth. That 105 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,840 Speaker 1: would endorse that approach. They're hoping that the second piece 106 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: of a communication from chair and Pal also gets readdressed, 107 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 1: so it's slower seventy fifty maybe twenty five. He also 108 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: said higher. Does this remove the risk or help to 109 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:10,919 Speaker 1: remove the risk that the terminal rate scope for the 110 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 1: terminal rates much higher than where we are priced right 111 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: now is removed. Yeah. I think some of the contexts 112 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: around those comments was lost. You know, when chair Pal 113 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: is talking about a higher terminal rate, he's usually referencing 114 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 1: what the sep dot plot was showing in September that 115 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 1: terminal rate was four point six as a medium, up 116 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 1: from three up, up from three a D. But I 117 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 1: think he was saying higher than what they had projected 118 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 1: as of September. The market went with it and went 119 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 1: to five and a quarter for someone what we priced already, 120 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: absolutely sure, and so I think there's there's some context there. 121 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: He was guiding towards something that was higher than where 122 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 1: they were in September, not necessarily something that was materially 123 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:45,599 Speaker 1: higher than what the market was pricing at the time. 124 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 1: A viewer just wants to know your view as we 125 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: got the CPI report, we got initial jobs claims, and 126 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,559 Speaker 1: we see the continuing claims ticked up to one point 127 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: four nine million. How much are we looking at increase 128 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: in employment rates that perhaps people have not really priced 129 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 1: in fully. Yeah, so on our re continuing jobs claims 130 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:07,679 Speaker 1: are the best real time indicators of recessions. UM. There's 131 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 1: been a lot of difficulty in interpreting that data. UM. 132 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: At least if you look to the prior weeks, you 133 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 1: had seen this uptick take place, but it was only 134 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: in the seasonally just the data was not in the 135 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: n s A data. So I think there's some caution 136 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,160 Speaker 1: because there's been a lot of difficulties seasonally adjusting the 137 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: data UM post the pandemic. But if you continue to 138 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:27,279 Speaker 1: see that rise, uh, it is something that tells you 139 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:29,480 Speaker 1: that the labor market is beginning to materially usen and 140 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: it is the best real time indicator of recession. This 141 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: was awesome gotten into the print coming out of it. 142 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: I hope we can do it again December thirty for 143 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: that and it's our real something. Okay, look forward to 144 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 1: your bank looking forward to it too. Kathy Jones Jones Down, 145 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: Chief Fixed Income strategistic Charles Swabs, so she could join. 146 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 1: That's warning, Kathy, I want to get right to the reality. 147 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 1: You know, I've been on this. I don't care about spreads, 148 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: I don't care about fancy convexity and the rest of 149 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 1: the frank fibosy world. I'm down in some flavor of 150 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 1: quality bonds. How do I begin the recovery? Well, yeah, 151 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: there's a couple of choices you have, so you know, 152 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: most likely what you want to do is start reinvesting 153 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 1: and higher coupon bonds. So in order to recoup your money, 154 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: you want that coupon money, right, because that's what you 155 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: get out of the bond market. It's much less about 156 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: capital gains. Obviously that was when when deals were falling 157 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: to zero, But in reality, most income you get from 158 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 1: fixed income is the coupon payment. So frankly, to repeat 159 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 1: what we had this year and get another fourteen percent down, 160 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: you need rates to go to nine percent. Now I 161 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: know a lot of parish people, I don't know anybody 162 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 1: talking about nine percent. So even in a static or 163 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 1: higher interest rate environment, if you have higher coupon hang 164 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: bonds and you're going to have a positive tone return, 165 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: what quality of quality corporates is the best positioning point? 166 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: Is it the no brainer triple A. I'm not using 167 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 1: it as a credit rating basis, but just the emotional 168 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: triple A quality or do you want to go some 169 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: shades of quality down to find that coupon? Well, in 170 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 1: the corporate bond world, there's not a lot of triple 171 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: A paper out there anymore, but you know you want 172 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 1: to stay investment grade. We think um high yield is 173 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:35,439 Speaker 1: it's very appealing at nine percent yield. The problem is 174 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 1: we haven't really I don't think discounted the weakness in 175 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: the economy that's coming and there's probably more shake out. 176 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 1: They are so pretty cautious on high yield, but sticking 177 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 1: with higher credit quality and with munis too, or if 178 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: you're in a higher tax bracket, the mini market still 179 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 1: offers from very attractive tax exempt returns. How until you 180 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,679 Speaker 1: staying in cash are short term bonds? I mean, we 181 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 1: just heard from Phil camp Rally over at JP Morgan 182 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 1: temper percent of his portfolio in cash because there is 183 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: an alternative. Are you finding the same thing in fixed 184 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 1: income and avoiding, for example, long duration simply because of 185 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:13,440 Speaker 1: the uncertainty Right now? Yeah, we're seeing a lot of people, 186 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: you know, stay short relatively, stay short duration. We think 187 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: that's actually a mistake to stay all in cash because 188 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 1: to lock in higher yields right now, we think as 189 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: an opportunity we are looking for inflation to come down. 190 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: We are still looking at a rocky road ahead for 191 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 1: the economy, and you're not locking in some of that 192 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 1: income right now. You're probably going to ride ride it 193 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: up and ride it all the way down and be 194 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 1: looking at lower yields down the road. So we're not 195 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 1: extending duration too, you know, uh, thirty years, but would 196 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 1: definitely think you should be moving out to at least 197 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 1: an egg like duration in portfolios. Do you think that 198 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,199 Speaker 1: longer term we're going to see an average tenure yield 199 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,319 Speaker 1: closer to say three percent or even two percent? Is 200 00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,839 Speaker 1: that the more likely kind of target that you're looking at. 201 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: Just get people an understanding of the rate of change 202 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: and where we may be headed. Yeah, we do. I 203 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: think some of the basic fundamentals haven't changed, so and well, 204 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: hey we've got some you know, weakness in the economy 205 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 1: coming to just a cumulative effect of all the typing 206 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 1: we've seen globally. We should see the economy continue to 207 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 1: weekend and inflation come down, But then we haven't really 208 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 1: changed the demographic profile globally and domestically of an aging population. 209 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 1: We still have a lot of savings around the world, 210 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 1: and frankly in the US, we still have the world's 211 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 1: reserve currency that people flocked to when you know, things 212 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: get tough. So I don't know why we wouldn't go 213 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: back we get inflation down to around our roughly three 214 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 1: three percentage tenure yield because the Iro Jersey over at 215 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,839 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence just publishes and he talks about a ten 216 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:53,679 Speaker 1: year yield that will be hovering and that there will 217 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: be almost the stasis. Are you assuming we come out 218 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 1: of bond volatility and yield volatility towards a hovering sense 219 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: of the fixed income market? Well, I would love volatility 220 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 1: in the bond market to come down, but I think 221 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 1: we have to get the FED to slow down or 222 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 1: stabilize before that happens. I think one of the concerns 223 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: I have is that this this volatility, this rate of 224 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 1: change has been so dramatic and so high that it's 225 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,080 Speaker 1: kind of destabilizing a lot of other things. So, you know, 226 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: because bonds are used to price other assets, if you 227 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 1: have a highly volatile treasury market, you can't really price 228 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 1: those assets very well. So I think down the road, 229 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,080 Speaker 1: sure we should get lower volatility, but I think we 230 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: need to see the FED plateau at least before that's 231 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 1: going to happen. Kathy one of the best time, so 232 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 1: always Kathy Jones. That changed to up climate. It was 233 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 1: one of the themes in the election. Maybe below the 234 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: radar of crime, immigration, inflation, the economy of America, but 235 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:01,319 Speaker 1: nevertheless it is always of this. Michael Reagan joins US 236 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 1: now administrator, yes, of the Environmental Protection Agency, but far 237 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: more from the backbone in the fields the hills of 238 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 1: North Carolina. He's got an understanding of the value of 239 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 1: climate to ourselves. Michael, thank you so much for joining us. 240 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 1: From copy seven. The problem with these interviews, as we 241 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 1: tend to go big and broad, I want to go narrow. 242 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 1: And it does go to the President's back and forth 243 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 1: on hydrocarbons, on oil, on net gas, and also on 244 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: methane emissions from oil. Take us into that little narrow 245 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 1: window of methane emissions and what can be accomplished. Well, 246 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: thank you for having me, and you know the President 247 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 1: has pledged that will continue to move forward UH to 248 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 1: reduce global warming, to reduce these emissions that cause global warming. 249 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: He never pledged that we would get out of it 250 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: immediately overnight, but he pledged that we would work our 251 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: way out of this. And so I think when we 252 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 1: talk about methane in particular, the conversation is that I'm 253 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: having with the oil and gas sector, with technology providers, UH, 254 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 1: with you know, the US Chamber of Commerce, is that 255 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: we see an opportunity to deploy technology to reduce methane 256 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 1: UH and actually save the loss of gas and gas 257 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: products while saving the planet and protecting public health. We 258 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 1: know the technologies exist, We know that there are advanced 259 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 1: technologies and business models that can aggt to reduce in methane, 260 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: and so E p a's job is to put some 261 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 1: rules of engagement in the role so that all companies 262 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 1: know and can make these longer term investments. How does 263 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 1: EPHS job change with the election including a big Republican 264 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 1: win in your North Carolina. I'm fascinated how the oil 265 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 1: and gas industry that has a GOP ben will change 266 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: an amend coming off this election. Well, you know, we're 267 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 1: the president has had a historic two years and passing 268 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:07,440 Speaker 1: historic legislation with the Biparts and Infrastructure Law, the Inflation 269 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: Reduction Act. You know, resources coming to e p A 270 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 1: UH to help with and enhance the regulations UH that 271 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 1: we are required to put in place by law. So 272 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 1: I don't think the elections will change the fact that 273 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 1: e p A has legislative authority or authority provided by 274 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: the legislature or Congress to pursue the reduction of greenhouse 275 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 1: gas emissions to protect public health and protect the planet. 276 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 1: We're gonna continue to move forward and do our job. 277 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: But the resources that flow from the UH, from the 278 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 1: Inflation Reduction that just help with that public private partnership 279 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 1: to pursue these reductions, So we're not solely reliant on 280 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: regulations alone. How complicated is it right now, Michael, to 281 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 1: be with this mandate to reduce submissions at a time 282 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 1: where people are prioritizing fossil fuels in light of some 283 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 1: of the shortages, in light of the war in Ukraine, 284 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 1: Is it perhap taking some energy away from what you're 285 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: saying or making it more difficult to argue your cause. 286 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 1: You know, it's a it's a it's a it's a 287 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: speed bump, right I mean, I think we find ourselves 288 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: in this position where many countries are overly reliant on 289 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: fossil fuels provided by UH, you know, countries like Russia 290 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: at a time where it's it's inconvenient, and we are 291 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: seeing that this unprovoked war with Ukraine is causing pain globally. 292 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 1: If we were not so dependent on these fossil fuels, 293 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: if we had made the proper investments in clean technologies 294 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 1: and energy efficiency and more domestic opportunities, we would not 295 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 1: see the price volatility that we're seeing internationally. So it's 296 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 1: a wake up call, right. Number one, it is very 297 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 1: inconvenient obviously, but number two, UH, it is really forcing 298 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: all of us UH here at cop UH to think 299 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 1: through how we continue to double down and invest in 300 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 1: alternatives to fossil fill with Michael Reagan, Thank you, sir, 301 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 1: Michael Reriggan, there have the e p A. This is important, 302 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 1: John and you alluded to it one an election. To 303 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 1: speak to Terry Haynes. He has a certain perspective. He 304 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 1: got it right, He just got it right out into 305 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: all of this. I've almost looking for that massive red wave. 306 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: It dominated the conversations on this show when that's not 307 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: what's Harry was looking for? Terry Haynes, founder of PANCHEA Policy, 308 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 1: joined us right now, Terry, why don't you start with 309 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 1: what you were looking for and why and we'll take 310 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: it from there. Good morning, John, And uh, you know, 311 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 1: I'm kind of old school. I I look at the 312 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: data as much as possible. I weigh in a bunch 313 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 1: of other things. I do pay attention to what some 314 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 1: of the aggregators are are looking at, whether it be uh, 315 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 1: you know, real clear politics, ornate silver sight, or whatever. 316 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 1: It's kind of a spice. But I've been been around 317 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 1: us and doing this a long time, and in the end, 318 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 1: what you get from me is my own view. I 319 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 1: wasn't seeing a way. I was seeing a you know, 320 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:11,360 Speaker 1: slight reddening of the map, certainly, but probably what probably 321 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: a small house majority and uh, you know, the Senate 322 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 1: is still up for grabs, but I think right now 323 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: a little more likely to go are than D. But 324 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 1: it wasn't gonna happen. So you know, I mean what 325 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: you get out of this is, you know, you get 326 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 1: continued but what you already have continued for firstability, nothing 327 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 1: in the domestic and uh continued unimity on foreign policy Terry, 328 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 1: Will there be a set of Joe Mansions in the House. 329 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 1: Will there be centrist Republicans looking to two thousand and 330 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: twenty four that will push against more conservative Republicans. I'll 331 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,400 Speaker 1: let Joe Mansion and the Democrats in the Senate. Oh sure, 332 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 1: and well there already are. You know, Mansion by no 333 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 1: means is alone. Everybody knows Mansion in cinema. But yeah, 334 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: I always look at them and know that they're they're 335 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: representing others on issues, whether it be energy issues or 336 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:05,399 Speaker 1: you know, frankly the regulation of financial services, because remember 337 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 1: they've rejected a bunch of people. Those people exist in 338 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 1: the House as well. So sure, these are four factions, 339 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,880 Speaker 1: not two parties, I always say, and there then that's 340 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 1: still true. Well, this is really important. I don't think 341 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 1: it's in the zeitgeist right now, Terry. It's not a 342 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: unified GOP in the House. I get that, But do 343 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 1: they have real power to steer GOP legislation with the 344 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:31,640 Speaker 1: GOP majority in the House. Well, if if they can 345 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 1: unify around something, sure, and there will be lots of 346 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:40,400 Speaker 1: responsible people, uh Patrick McHenry and financial services being one 347 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 1: who will look to do that exactly. But it won't 348 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 1: be an easy process for them, just like it wasn't 349 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 1: an easy process for Democrats in the last cycle. Uh. 350 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 1: You know, it'll take some time. It won't be instantaneous. Uh. 351 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,359 Speaker 1: And of course if the Senate does not go whether 352 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 1: or not the Senate goes Republicans way, you need sixty 353 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:02,360 Speaker 1: votes to to proceed the legislation in the Senate. They 354 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: won't have anywhere near that. So the net net of 355 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: that is you won't see very much legislation be successful. Terry, 356 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: is it too soon to say that Rhoda Santis is 357 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:14,920 Speaker 1: a new leader of the Republican Party? Um? No, probably not, Lesta, 358 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:17,879 Speaker 1: It's probably not too soon to say that. You know. 359 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: Certainly the direction that the Santis points, which is, you know, 360 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 1: kind of unapologetic on policy while at the same time 361 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 1: having having a winning way about if not only personally 362 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 1: but but through election results, is exactly the direction the 363 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: party wants to go in. And Uh, then so sure, 364 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 1: I think that's probably true. From a substance perspective, How 365 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 1: does that differ from Donald Trump from a what perspective? 366 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 1: From a substance perspective? Substance perspective, I think what, what 367 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: and how it changes. Is that kind of consistency of 368 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:58,960 Speaker 1: purpose and consistency of message. What always dogged former President 369 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 1: Trump was was a lack of consistency in messaging and 370 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: and a lack of consistency in substance. To some extent, 371 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,479 Speaker 1: Now there were he had some successes where he was 372 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 1: laser sharp on both of those, trying to tearriffs being one, 373 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 1: but a lot of other things that Trump White House 374 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 1: is a little bit all over the map, and that 375 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 1: was bad for them. Uh. De Sanders has shown in 376 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: his governorship that he's he's learned from that. It's Terry. 377 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 1: Tom's talked about this. I just want to build on 378 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 1: it a little bit more too close down this conversation. 379 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:34,400 Speaker 1: The failure to embrace men in voting on the Republican side, Terry, 380 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 1: how did they address that? How do they even talk 381 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 1: about it in the coming months? Uh? The what? John? 382 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 1: I'm sorry? There to embrace mail in votes on the 383 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 1: Republican side, it just hasn't been part of the strategy 384 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:53,160 Speaker 1: for the party. Yeah. That's strange, isn't it. It's Uh, 385 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 1: They're they're gonna have to. Uh And I think this 386 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,640 Speaker 1: is probably a wake up call for that. I don't 387 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 1: know why they've been laid to the post done that, 388 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,639 Speaker 1: but they have been. But they're going to have to 389 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: figure out that there's really two h two elections here, 390 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 1: the mail in vote election in the day of vote election. Uh, 391 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania is a perfect example that I could never understand 392 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:16,680 Speaker 1: why uh why Republican why Oz agreed to debate Veterman 393 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 1: so late after there were so many votes already starting, 394 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 1: and uh, they're already in and that's probably what election 395 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 1: against him. Terry, Yeah, Terry, don't feel bad that you 396 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,679 Speaker 1: didn't understand John. I didn't understand him either. There, you know, 397 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 1: like about every fifth word with John, I just with 398 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 1: the accident, I just I don't I didn't get the 399 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 1: mail in thing there as well. It wasn't just like no, 400 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 1: it's just like a pinky blinders thing. I have to 401 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 1: watch the captions. No, I did not understand what John said. 402 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 1: There is Terry said the same thing. The accent you'll 403 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 1: suggesting that was a Brimi accent. No, I need well, 404 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,640 Speaker 1: I changes now that I think about it. I need 405 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 1: to get you know, the word thing at the bottom 406 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: of the screens close captions. I do that with pinky blinders. 407 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 1: I mean I didn't understand me there and I didn't well, yeah, 408 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 1: but you know, but I need close caption for Bloomberg 409 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 1: Surveillance with John Farrow. I mean question how offended I 410 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 1: should be. I think I think quite. I think you're 411 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 1: justified being quite. But let's talk about Shelter. Melon voted. 412 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: Sterry has hugely valuable. Thank you ter. This is the 413 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays 414 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 1: from seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and 415 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:33,119 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine am 416 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 1: for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and 417 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 1: international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, 418 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm 419 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 1: Tom Keene, and this is Bloomberg