1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 2: A Landa lining with us was Blackrock right now hugely. 7 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 2: We got a great set of guests to day now solid. 8 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 2: It's like, you know, summer dunkin Donuts, you have the 9 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 2: little dunkin Donut pause. 10 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's like it's coming in studio to the. 11 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 2: Studio, and it's like they just they just they're just 12 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 2: coming in for the from Mike's air conditioning. Don't kid yourself, 13 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 2: it's cooler here than Larry's air conditioning. 14 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 4: Good morning, Amanda. I have to impress you. 15 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 2: I looked at the not the FED yield curve, which 16 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 2: is not the two year ten year, but the two 17 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 2: year thirty year curve. I regressed it back three decades 18 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 2: and we're not even to like normal steepness now, are 19 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:05,680 Speaker 2: we right? 20 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 5: Good morning? Thank you for having me. 21 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 6: You're hitting on one of the themes that is actually 22 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 6: pretty consistent across our platform, which is an expectation for 23 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:18,119 Speaker 6: steeper curves, and I think normal, yes, and I think 24 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 6: we've already had some steepening. But the expectation across a 25 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 6: variety of different tasks is that that steepening trend could continue, 26 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 6: driven by a multitude of factors, but at the long end, 27 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 6: the fiscal situation that ranks among them. And I think 28 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 6: from our perspective, and this goes back to our views 29 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 6: on corporate credit. When we're allocating to corporate credit, we're 30 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 6: doing so because of yield and income and carry, not 31 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 6: because importantly we expect a long, a material rally in 32 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 6: rates that would boost total return. 33 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 2: So Marcus Ashworth does a heavy lifting for me at 34 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 2: Queen Victoria Street. All I do, folks, is gammer and 35 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 2: go to lunch. Ashwarth really works. European long bonds are 36 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 2: near their cell by date on the desk. Do you 37 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 2: have the tension I have when I look at a 38 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 2: five year thirty or a Japanese twenty or a French ship. 39 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 2: It's like a game of risk, folks. 40 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 6: I mean, I think all of our platforms are focused 41 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 6: on where can they get the best attractive return, and 42 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 6: oftentimes outside the US is something that's on the radar 43 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 6: for sure. 44 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 2: So are you buying the I'm going to make some 45 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 2: news here, are you buying the French thirty? 46 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 6: Well, I think it just depends on the mandate and 47 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 6: how they're allocating across. But I do think when you 48 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 6: think about some of the fiscal developments in Europe, whether 49 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 6: it's German infrastructure defense spending right like, you have a 50 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 6: return of yield support in Europe that wasn't there for 51 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 6: the past several years. It wasn't that long ago that 52 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 6: we were dealing with negative rates in Europe, and so 53 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 6: we do have a much more attractive I think backdropp 54 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 6: or income and yield and so absolutely Tom outside of 55 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 6: US exposures are absolutely on the suite of available options 56 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 6: depending upon the portrac. 57 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 3: In the US market, the US corporate highild market, I'm 58 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 3: looking at the id GO function on the Bloomberg terminal, 59 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 3: gives me all the returns across all fai s income 60 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 3: that's been the best performer, like by far, how do 61 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 3: you think about the hygyiold market. 62 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 6: So this is something that on actually in early April 63 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 6: April tenth, we had outlined an expectation that actually corporates 64 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 6: might be able to navigate this, and we were comfortable 65 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 6: selectively moving down in credit quality into the high end 66 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 6: of high yeld, not chasing all the way down the 67 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 6: credit spectrum, but into the high end of highyield. And 68 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 6: as you noted, doble B's have won one of the 69 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 6: best performers so far you're to date. We're expecting that 70 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 6: to continue. One of the questions that my team gets 71 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 6: constantly is what explains the resilience in high yield spreads 72 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 6: given all of the uncertainty we actually dug into this 73 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 6: last week to a large extent, And I think the 74 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 6: key takeaway from us is that corporates have a lot 75 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 6: of levers internally that they can flex to mitigate this 76 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 6: uncertainty and the impact of tariffs, and we're seeing it 77 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 6: in real time, and I think that's part of the 78 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 6: reason why HyG yield and IG spreads have been so resilient. 79 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 6: Never mind the fact that the technicals are really, really supportive. 80 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 2: It's like the NFL, we got a whole team in 81 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 2: a control room in downtown Manhattan. Kylin just emails from 82 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 2: our surveillance control over sure where we need to rule. 83 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 4: That was a massive jargon. 84 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 2: So when a high yield spreads are tight, Paul Helby, 85 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 2: that's price up, yield down, and so the yield is 86 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 2: closer to the government. 87 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 3: I think that's what the bond people think. Okay, I 88 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 3: mean I learned define Lisa bromok. 89 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 4: Okay, they say the ref's got to go out in 90 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 4: the field. 91 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 2: We can continue to talk to Amanda after that. 92 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 3: So what are we thinking about earning share? What are 93 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:28,119 Speaker 3: you guys going to be looking for from an earning 94 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 3: season this year? 95 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,040 Speaker 6: Yeah, and I think just to go back to your 96 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,039 Speaker 6: point time on spreads, the tighter spreads just means a 97 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 6: receptivity towards credit risk, right, more comfort towards credit risk. 98 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 5: That's how we would think about it heading into earnings. 99 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 6: One of the key things that we're watching is the 100 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 6: speedback loop between corporate margins, the layoff rate, which is 101 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:48,679 Speaker 6: still low, consumer spending in overall economic activity right now. 102 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 6: If you can see this on the Bloomberg terminal, average 103 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 6: EBITDUM margins for ig are above twenty percent. Average EBITDUM 104 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 6: margins for high yield are above thirty percent. So what 105 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 6: we're watching is is there pressure on those margins because 106 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 6: of higher input costs for example, and do corporates flex 107 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 6: that lay off tool more aggressively? But going back to 108 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:10,919 Speaker 6: the earlier discussion, actually, I think we've been pleasantly surprised 109 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 6: that the multitude of levers that corporates can flex here, 110 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 6: And so what we're really watching for is is there 111 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 6: a middle ground between how these corporates navigate this, whether 112 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 6: that's vendor relationships, inventory purchases, the list goes on to 113 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 6: navigate these this uncertainty and the policy. 114 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 3: Because we're really not seeing it in inflation data, yet 115 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 3: it doesn't appear to be so maybe the consumers aren't 116 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 3: going to bear the big brunt bed I don't know. 117 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 6: I think our expectation is that inflation is just stubbornly 118 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 6: above target. 119 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 5: It makes it difficult for the FED to cut in 120 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 5: this environment. 121 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 6: If you dig under the surface from yesterday's data, you 122 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 6: did see some categories have upward pressure, and I think 123 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 6: it was telling actually that we were never expecting a 124 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 6: cut in July, and I thought even September was difficult. 125 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 6: The market seems to be further pricing out the next 126 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 6: bed rate cut, and I think that's probably appropriate. 127 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 2: Don't be a stranger more questions, is your conditioning okay? 128 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 5: It's great, better. 129 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 4: Than Blacklow come in to line him. 130 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. 131 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 132 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 133 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 134 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube on the. 135 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 2: Banker Innings and Now with Goldman, Sachs and Morgan standing out. 136 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,840 Speaker 2: Someone with decades of experience here, Gerard Cassidy. Gerard, I've 137 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: been dying to ask you this question. I got a 138 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 2: JP Morgan with an eighteen percent return on equity. 139 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 4: Everybody is factors away in a ten, nine and eight an. 140 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 2: Eleven percent return on equity. Is JP Morgan unique and 141 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 2: superior or the others lagging? 142 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 4: Which is it? 143 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 7: I think it's that JP Morgan is unique and superior, 144 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 7: partly due to the fact, you might recall, during the 145 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 7: pandemic there was a surge of deposits in the US 146 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 7: banking industry due to the actions taken by the Federal 147 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 7: Reserve in the US government. JP Morgan, along with the 148 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 7: other big banks saw a big increase in their deposits, 149 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 7: and JP Morgan invested them in a very short duration portfolio, 150 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 7: cash up at the FED and overnight funds, whereas other 151 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 7: banks took duration risks, like Bank America. As a result, 152 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 7: their profitability at JP Morgan as far as superior than 153 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 7: their peers. The other important part time is that their 154 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 7: efficiency ratio expenses divided by revenues is around fifty two percent, 155 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 7: much lower than any of its peers. And that's the 156 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 7: other factor why they stand out. 157 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 4: Gered. You and I go so far back. We used 158 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 4: to go to the Saint Patrick's state party in Boston 159 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 4: where Albert Gallaton would show up. 160 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 2: I mean, we go way back. What happens the day 161 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 2: Jamie Diamond decides to retire? I mean, what happens to 162 00:07:57,800 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 2: JP Morgan? 163 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 4: You know, does it? Does it? Crator? Do they move on? 164 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 4: How do you see that game happening? Gerard? 165 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 7: They certainly do not Creter in our review, He's got 166 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 7: some very strong era parents, in particular Marion Lake, who 167 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 7: heads up the Consumer Bank. But Tom, you're bringing up 168 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 7: a good point, because when he steps down, the stock 169 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 7: is not going to react well to that news. The 170 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 7: guy is really in a class by his own. He's 171 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 7: in the Hall of Fame and bank Cegos and he's 172 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,079 Speaker 7: going to be hard to replace. But it doesn't mean 173 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 7: JP Morgan crashes down. But it may lose some of 174 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 7: its momentum on the day of the announcement, But as 175 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,559 Speaker 7: they demonstrate under the new leadership, with whoever's at the helm, 176 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 7: I think you'll see them over time gravitate back to 177 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:50,319 Speaker 7: where they were when he was in charge. 178 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 4: Gerard. 179 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 3: When President Trump was elected to a second term here, 180 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 3: one of the Trump trades, if you will, was to 181 00:08:57,080 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 3: own financials bank stocks here in large part to the 182 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 3: expectation maybe looser or regulatory framework. Is that kind of 183 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 3: playing out? How does the market discounting that these days? 184 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 7: Actually, Paul, it played out extremely well after he was 185 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:17,719 Speaker 7: elected in November, and the bank stocks were clear outperformers 186 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 7: in twenty twenty four. 187 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 8: They were also doing very well through the end. 188 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 7: Of February, outperforming the market, and then of course the 189 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 7: Trump tariff policies were announced, the stocks sold off very hard. 190 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:33,319 Speaker 8: But since the first week of April, you. 191 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 7: Know, the bank stocks, not including yesterday's trading action, the 192 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 7: bank indicies had recovered about thirty five percent, which put 193 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 7: them near to date ahead of the S. 194 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:45,959 Speaker 8: And P five hundred again the bank indices. 195 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 7: So I think what you're seeing is that the Trump 196 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 7: trade is still working for the banks. And the reason 197 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 7: for Paul is that the deregulation outlook for the banks 198 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 7: is very positive. 199 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 3: So yard here is by the group, here is it 200 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 3: try to be selective. How are your clients thinking about 201 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 3: some of these big banks, because boy, the earnings over 202 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 3: there today and yesterday you look pretty solid across the board. 203 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 8: They really do. 204 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 7: And it's a good question, and you can certainly buy 205 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 7: the group through one of the ETFs that we're all 206 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 7: familiar with. But I think if you are in the 207 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 7: camp that the Federal Reserve could be lowering shor term 208 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 7: interest rates between now and the end of the year 209 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 7: twenty five to fifty basis points. 210 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 4: Maybe a year. 211 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 7: From now the short end of the curve is down 212 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 7: seventy five or even one hundred basis points. Is a 213 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 7: positive slope to the curve, assuming the tenure stays anchored 214 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 7: at four and a half percent, a three and a 215 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 7: half three and three quotas sped funds four and a 216 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 7: half ten uyere is very. 217 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 8: Positive for the banks. 218 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 7: In fact, you have to go back twenty years to 219 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 7: find that kind of environment where the Fed funds rate 220 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 7: it was over three percent with a positive slope. So 221 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 7: that would suggest regional banks could which I've logged the 222 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 7: money centers could be the play for the next six 223 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:04,079 Speaker 7: to twelve months. 224 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 2: Gered I need to recover my portfolio. I don't own bitcoin, 225 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 2: I didn't buy JP Morgan. Give me the small bank 226 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 2: stock at Gerard Cassidy at Tucker Anthony. 227 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:15,079 Speaker 4: RLDA this morning. 228 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,960 Speaker 8: That's a great name, it's not so small. 229 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 7: The challenge Tom is that the small banks are being acquired. 230 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 7: But I steer people to popular in Puerto Rico. And 231 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 7: what though it's not a community bank anymore. Puerto Rico 232 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 7: has fully recovered, obviously from the terrible years they had 233 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 7: five years ago. And this is the leading bank in 234 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 7: the on the island and they're doing a great job 235 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 7: and they have a ton of excess capital and the 236 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 7: buyback should be very supportive. 237 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 4: Plus has road trip to me short on it. 238 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:53,359 Speaker 2: Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets Legendary. 239 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 240 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,439 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corp Play Android 241 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 242 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 243 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 244 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:11,119 Speaker 4: This is well. 245 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 2: Timed with David Malpass is making jokes about cors burying, 246 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 2: you know, taking physics, call it, you know, a huge 247 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 2: program back in her youth. But the scope and scale 248 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 2: of what mister Melpass has done, including running for a 249 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 2: Republican office within the Empire, stayed out of a pickup 250 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 2: truck or a van. It's like you know, VW van 251 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 2: or something. And he's done so much, including the former 252 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 2: president at the World Bank, where thrilled he could join 253 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 2: us this morning, David, this could be like a four 254 00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 2: hour conversation. 255 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 4: There's a little bit going on. Hi, Tom and Paul, 256 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 4: good to see you. 257 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 2: I look at the Indonesian rupea. I'm sure it's the 258 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 2: first thing you looked at this morning. And I got 259 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:55,440 Speaker 2: a moonshot of Indonesia weakness from twenty eleven. I guess 260 00:12:55,640 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 2: is capitulate the right words. They've capitulated to Trump tariffs 261 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 2: for the World Bank and for emerging markets. If we 262 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 2: get Indonesia like tariffs, do they unravel? 263 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 9: Currencies are really important to people. If you think about 264 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 9: working people around the world. 265 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 4: They buy that. All they do is get. 266 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 9: A wage and then spend it and they and that's 267 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 9: where inflation is the rub And so as you I 268 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 9: do wake up every morning thinking about what currencies are 269 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 9: doing around the world. There's a huge amount of pressure 270 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 9: on weaker currencies and they're trying to find how they're 271 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 9: going to interact in between the US and China. So 272 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 9: that's the source of this, you know. The mistake, and 273 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 9: we should remind people of this was becoming the world 274 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:46,320 Speaker 9: becoming dependent on China. We were all aware of how 275 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 9: harmed Germany was by depending on Russia for their natural gas. 276 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:54,800 Speaker 9: Even starting with Reagan, he pleaded with the Europeans not 277 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 9: to get stuck were the Soviet Union. So but in 278 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 9: the recent years, year after year, we're more dependent on China. 279 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 4: So that takes work to get a case. So you 280 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 4: have the voice of the president. 281 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 2: I mean you come from the Republican side. If you 282 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 2: were to advise the group, mister Bessett and all, do 283 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 2: we want to mandate a weaker dollar policy or is 284 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 2: that feasible that we can we can tell the rest 285 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 2: of the world what to do. 286 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 9: It's clearly what we're doing is building manufacturing in the 287 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 9: US so that it's competitive and that it can have 288 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 9: verticals supply chains that get it done. You have to 289 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 9: have small business loans, You have to have workers with skills, 290 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 9: better education system, and they're working on that and that 291 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 9: will work to give to give you the trade balance, 292 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 9: more balanced trade. 293 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 4: That we need. 294 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 9: I think currencies are a slippery slope because once you 295 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 9: weaken your currency, you get more prices, you get more 296 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 9: inflation out of that. So my view is that we 297 00:14:56,600 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 9: ought to be defending the dollar intense, defending the dollar 298 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 9: and making clear to the world it's going to be 299 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 9: the US dollar for fifty years and invest in US 300 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 9: or losing. 301 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 2: I can't say how much he bes shown the door 302 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 2: at the White House faced. 303 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 4: I don't think. 304 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 9: I don't think that the White House wants good outcomes 305 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 9: for workers. 306 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 4: Come on, David, I'm gonna stop you. 307 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 2: President Trump has a history at every step of saying 308 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 2: he wants a week dollar to boost. 309 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 9: Exports, he wants good outcomes for workers, and that's what's 310 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 9: going on right now. So I'm not sure I agree 311 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 9: with that. If you want the yield curved lower, you 312 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 9: defend the dollar and everybody will invest in your bonds 313 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 9: and in your bills, and. 314 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 4: That is going on. Look at what's going on in Europe. 315 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 9: The euro is strengthening and they're feeling their oats because 316 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 9: they finally started doing some defense spending. And so that 317 00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 9: Trump is changing the world pretty rapidly in a way 318 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 9: that we'll make it more secure from Russia and China, 319 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 9: and we'll get a lot more investment into the US. 320 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 9: But I don't think the markets should be should expect 321 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 9: dollar weakness out of that policy. If you're doing good 322 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 9: policies in the US, it's going to be dollars supportive. 323 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 3: David, with all the tariff discussions going on, is globalization 324 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 3: dead or dying because we all grew up with globalization, Well. 325 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 9: We did, but it was a mistake in many ways. 326 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 9: So globalization, so let's use two words. Globalization means getting 327 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 9: parts from other countries in an efficient way. So that 328 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 9: made sense in areas, But then was it sensible for 329 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 9: Germany to get its energy from Russia? No, from the 330 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 9: Soviet Communist Soviet Union and they cut sweet ardeals to 331 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 9: do it. That was a mistake. Same with China. We 332 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 9: just went too far and had no knowledge of what 333 00:16:56,360 --> 00:17:00,080 Speaker 9: we were doing in terms of the dependence. So I 334 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 9: think as we you know, people use words, So globalization 335 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:07,160 Speaker 9: is this word that we think we know what it means. 336 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 4: But I think we will. 337 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 9: Stay in a market based global economy where you can outsource, 338 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 9: but a lot of it is going to be made 339 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:16,119 Speaker 9: in the United States. 340 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:18,880 Speaker 3: Tariffs in general, is that the tool to get us there? 341 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 3: Do you think is that the best tool to get 342 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 3: us there? 343 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 9: What we know is that the WTO wasn't working, and 344 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:29,919 Speaker 9: the whole idea of most favored nation and permanent normal 345 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:34,239 Speaker 9: trading relationship didn't work. That was the whole system that 346 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:38,360 Speaker 9: the US pioneered and led on and really got hurt by. 347 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:42,199 Speaker 9: It was the idea of we lower ours to everybody 348 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,920 Speaker 9: at the same time, regardless of what they're doing. So 349 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 9: that's getting that's getting a fully rethought. I think it 350 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:52,919 Speaker 9: can lead to a more balanced relationship. But you have 351 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 9: you really have to start with it. 352 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 4: China. 353 00:17:56,480 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 9: You know, China is intensely communists and became a dominant 354 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 9: country playing that game. 355 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 4: We need a new game. Let me get the question 356 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:05,199 Speaker 4: out of the way. 357 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:07,120 Speaker 2: Have you been contacted by the White House and their 358 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 2: new FED chairman search? 359 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 9: I don't want to go into conversations. I want to 360 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 9: really focus on how do you fix the FED? And 361 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,920 Speaker 9: you have to fix it in its models, in its 362 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,920 Speaker 9: balance sheet, and in its regulatory policy. This is going 363 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 9: to take an intense effort by the whole board. There's 364 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 9: got to be leadership of moving the board to the 365 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 9: idea that they're. 366 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 2: Different ways to If the president sets up a new 367 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 2: chairman of whatever ILK, whether it's David Malbus or anyone else, 368 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 2: can't the other presidents and governors just start dissenting, almost 369 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 2: as a dissent vote. 370 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 4: People will talk about that. 371 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 9: I think leadership really can dominate within the FED system. 372 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 9: You remember that it's not just the US FED. The 373 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 9: FED is the central player in the global central banking 374 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 9: system and has lots of latitude to make it work. 375 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,679 Speaker 2: Can you tell me why Glenn Hubbard's name is not 376 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:03,400 Speaker 2: being mentioned. I mean, he's absolutely definitive at Columbia. He's 377 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 2: our most articulate supply side expert. Why in God's name 378 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 2: as a president not talking to Professor Hubbard? 379 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 9: Everyone you said our great candidates Kevin and Kevin and 380 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:17,679 Speaker 9: Scott and Glenn, and so I don't know the list. 381 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 9: I hope that the search is wide and that that 382 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 9: people recognize that we don't want incriminalism, we want really 383 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 9: a sea change in how the FAT operates in a 384 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 9: way that is confident. 385 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 2: Is there any historical evidence back to McChesney martin nineteen 386 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,439 Speaker 2: fifty one that we're going to get a sea change 387 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 2: within that institution? 388 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 4: What yes on a case? So Paul Volker obviously was 389 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:46,160 Speaker 4: a sea change point him, well, said Jimmy Carter. 390 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:53,159 Speaker 9: As you think about it, Yellen even was a sea change, 391 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:54,400 Speaker 9: but to the negative side. 392 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 4: So some are nice. Some part of what we're doing 393 00:19:57,680 --> 00:19:59,120 Speaker 4: has to be to reverse. 394 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 2: Album over there two minutes some sportsman like contact. 395 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:03,879 Speaker 4: Paul saved the interviews. 396 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 3: With a little bit of hindsight here, what do you 397 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 3: think this FED has gotten wrong? 398 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 4: Has wrong? 399 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:12,160 Speaker 9: It's you know, the inflation obviously during Biden not recognizing it, 400 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 9: but the keep keeping buying bonds when the rates were 401 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:22,160 Speaker 9: near zero that extended into twenty twenty one and twenty two. 402 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 9: They were still doing QE that How much did they 403 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:29,400 Speaker 9: lose four taxpayers on that alone? A giant the buildings 404 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 9: that you see in the news, why are you building it? 405 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 4: At World Bank? 406 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 9: I gave up leases on three three buildings during COVID, 407 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,400 Speaker 9: recognizing office space in DC was going to be cheap 408 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 9: as can be and that that helps net income a lot. 409 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,879 Speaker 9: They're going the other way of building this, you know, 410 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 9: a palace. 411 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 4: But every room has a Bloomberg terminal. Those those are 412 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:54,920 Speaker 4: really expensive. 413 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 2: Oh really, you know, we thank you for writing to 414 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:01,160 Speaker 2: check David Malpass Bank, thank you so much. 415 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 9: And small business lending. That's a big mistake. 416 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 4: Not enough of it. Okay, well you back somehow. 417 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 2: I think it's going to be an eventful Central Bank 418 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 2: discussion mister Malpass of course iconic with John writing it, 419 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 2: Bear Stearns going on to a World bank as well 420 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,400 Speaker 2: and working within Republican Powletics. 421 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 422 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,919 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 423 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 424 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. 425 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 2: When we invented this exercise, folks, it was thinking along 426 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 2: the lines of going from Gina Martin Adams to Patrick Armstrong. 427 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,919 Speaker 2: Mister Armstrong is with Plurimi Wealth in London is a 428 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 2: wonderful transatlantic view absolutely definitive onbelief, conviction and asset allocation. 429 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 2: I just got a note from Ira Jersey of Bloomberg Intelligence. Patrick, 430 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 2: he's coming out with a study on the thirty year bond. 431 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 2: Momentarily we'll bring that to you first, folks here at Surveillance, Patrick, 432 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 2: are you doing a study of thirty year paper in 433 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 2: Europe and America? 434 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:20,439 Speaker 4: And what does it signal? Well, I wouldn't want to 435 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 4: own it. 436 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 10: I'd rather short the thirty year of treasury. We don't 437 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 10: shorten at the moment, but I think we're in a 438 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 10: period where inflation. There's going to be unequivocal spikes and 439 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 10: inflation over the next decade and over the next twenty years. 440 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 10: All populist regimes. The endgame is printing new money to 441 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,680 Speaker 10: pay off the old debt. It's Inflation's a big risk, 442 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,640 Speaker 10: and the market for the next decade is priced for perfection. 443 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,760 Speaker 10: Inflation break evens moved up to two point four percent 444 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,679 Speaker 10: today from two point three yesterday, But that's pricing a 445 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 10: fed because that has a populate decade, and it's just 446 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:54,879 Speaker 10: so many forces that aren't going to allow that. 447 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 4: Do you follow on that? 448 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 2: We will see a breakout higher in the inflation adjusted 449 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:04,400 Speaker 2: the real rate whatever country, and that will pinge upon 450 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:05,679 Speaker 2: equity performance. 451 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 10: I don't even know if the real rate necessarily goes 452 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 10: a lot higher, because it's the inflation part. It's the 453 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,640 Speaker 10: big risk. So if you're getting right now, you can 454 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,960 Speaker 10: lock in with a tip inflation plus two point three percent, 455 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 10: no matter what that inflation is over the next thirty 456 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 10: years on the thirty year tip right now. So that's 457 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 10: a pretty compelling real yield. What I think is the 458 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 10: nominal yields that people who are buying them at five 459 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,159 Speaker 10: percent thinking they're going to get two point three percent 460 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,679 Speaker 10: real yields. I don't know if that is going to 461 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,440 Speaker 10: end up being a real yield because inflation rises, I'm 462 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 10: not sure real yields rise with them. I actually think 463 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 10: real yields may come down, but nominal yields move higher. 464 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:47,159 Speaker 3: So Patrick, giving that backdrop, what's your allocation, your asset 465 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 3: allocation today, how has that change? Maybe over the last 466 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 3: six or twelve. 467 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:55,399 Speaker 10: Months, it's not changed a lot. We added equities in 468 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,919 Speaker 10: April thinking we would hold our nose and stick with 469 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 10: them because valuation has got to prety reasonable valuations, and 470 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 10: then things came back much sharper than we ever would 471 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 10: have expected. We haven't trimmed equities yet, so I'm at 472 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:11,399 Speaker 10: risk of being complacent that the topple trade continues. Trump 473 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,679 Speaker 10: won't put in measures that disrupt the market significantly, or 474 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,679 Speaker 10: he will pivot if the market force, if market forces 475 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 10: him to do so. But on bonds, I'm sure Japanese bonds, 476 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 10: I don't know why anyone would want to own a 477 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 10: Japanese bond. Bank of Japan owns more than half of them, 478 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,120 Speaker 10: but anybody else, it doesn't make sense. Inflation's three point two, 479 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 10: the ten year yield is one and a half. You're 480 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 10: just destroying purchasing Japanese bond. You buy a US tip, 481 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 10: no matter what inflation is, you get inflation plus at 482 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,000 Speaker 10: a realm right now. So that's where we're long tips, 483 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:43,880 Speaker 10: short Japanese. 484 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:45,919 Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, you know, I don't have any pithy 485 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,200 Speaker 2: response to this because Patrick's dead on. 486 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 4: And it's just like all all my radars up. 487 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 2: And that's why when I come in, I look at 488 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,840 Speaker 2: the French thirty and the Japanese twenty, and they're not pretty. 489 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,360 Speaker 3: No, no, not at all. So I mean Patrick, here 490 00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 3: in the US there has been a lot to talk 491 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 3: about who the next FED chairman is or should be. 492 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 3: Should we be paying attention to any then. 493 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,240 Speaker 10: You've got to I think that's one of the biggest 494 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 10: tail risks is Trump just goes full chaos and puts 495 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 10: someone who's even more dubbish than any of the central 496 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,120 Speaker 10: bankers who are there right now. So Waller is a dove, 497 00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,400 Speaker 10: he's credible, his arguments make sense on why you would 498 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,040 Speaker 10: cut rates. But if he goes more extreme than that, 499 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 10: and Jared Kushner comes in or one of his sons 500 00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:36,800 Speaker 10: something really crazy, it's not totally implausible. And that's how 501 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 10: he's thinking one percent interest rates. He thinks it's great news. 502 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 10: He's thinks short term fix gives me a sugar rush, 503 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 10: but there's real long term consequences. So Urduwan's dining in 504 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,119 Speaker 10: Turkey works for a very very short time, but the 505 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 10: long term consequences would definitely be there. 506 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:54,880 Speaker 2: Patrick, don't be a strange We're going to come here 507 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 2: and look at some economic data right now, Patrick Armstrong, 508 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,920 Speaker 2: we continue with REMI Health Management. We've got a really 509 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:08,199 Speaker 2: important economic set of data here coming off of CPI yesterday, 510 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,640 Speaker 2: and I get the PPA look at that Paul. 511 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 4: It's a string of zero signaling disinflation. 512 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:14,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, it's a. 513 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,400 Speaker 4: Massively disinflated thing. 514 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,120 Speaker 2: Equities pop right off. 515 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:19,719 Speaker 3: The news, right off the news here, I mean PPI 516 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:23,400 Speaker 3: final demand month on month flat, the consensus was zero 517 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:27,400 Speaker 3: point two percent. Even if you xoff food and energy flat, 518 00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,879 Speaker 3: no inflation at the producer level there the consensus was 519 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,879 Speaker 3: positive zero point two So even though I mean to 520 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 3: analyze those rivers coming in below expectations. 521 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,320 Speaker 2: I mean, equities pop here features up nine. It's not 522 00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 2: all that much to it, but the fact is it's 523 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 2: a pop here with the VIC seventeen point seven zero 524 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,120 Speaker 2: thirty or bond even there comes in from a five 525 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,680 Speaker 2: oh one into the handle is a four point nine 526 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,159 Speaker 2: to eight. So price up, yield down there. And again, well, 527 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 2: the revisions were higher, I'll cut you know, the concern 528 00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 2: crew some slack. The revisions came in a higher but 529 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,160 Speaker 2: nevertheless a disinflationary tendency. 530 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,359 Speaker 4: I think that may work out to a churn. 531 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:09,959 Speaker 2: We'll see with Patrick Armstrong or Plurimi, Well, Patrick, I 532 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,119 Speaker 2: love the distance you have, even when you're writing in 533 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:16,479 Speaker 2: the ft from mag seven from across the ocean, What 534 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 2: does MAG seven look like into the July thirty earning season. 535 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,400 Speaker 10: So the ones we own, I'm sticking with them through 536 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:25,880 Speaker 10: the earnings reports. So in Video's got some nice tail 537 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,679 Speaker 10: wins with opening up exports again into China. It's an 538 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:33,600 Speaker 10: expensive company again, the profit margins are incredible Meta and Alphabet. 539 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:37,600 Speaker 10: I think they're trading at very reasonable multiples market multiples 540 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 10: with above market growth. We own Apple as well. That's 541 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 10: what I'm a bit unsure of getting the US consumer. 542 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:44,200 Speaker 4: Why do you own Apple? 543 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 10: It's buying back so many shares is the real driver 544 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,880 Speaker 10: of it. The thing I'm most attracted to is I've 545 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,159 Speaker 10: got a clear demand for Apple shares with all the 546 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,160 Speaker 10: cash flower of producers, and it's using that to buy 547 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 10: its own shares. So it's a company that's not at 548 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 10: a ridiculous multiple, lofty multiple. If they price it right 549 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:05,879 Speaker 10: on a new cheaper phone that doesn't destroy the margin 550 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 10: on what they're selling right now, I think it's a 551 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,359 Speaker 10: very attractive value. If they don't get that right, and 552 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,159 Speaker 10: that's the risk that's concerning me a little bit. As 553 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,400 Speaker 10: they eat into their margin by selling cheaper products, we'll 554 00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 10: see that on the earnings report. What their plans are 555 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,000 Speaker 10: hopefully it's credible, but that's the one risk of the 556 00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 10: stock that I do own. I don't own Tesla. We 557 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 10: sold Amazon about a month ago just on concerns on 558 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 10: the consumer. 559 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,119 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't see I don't see Patrick Armstrong 560 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 2: and a Tesla. I see even an MGTD nineteen three. 561 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a good Peter o'tool used. It's a solid one. Patrick. 562 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,959 Speaker 3: We saw earlier in the year people kind of dumping 563 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 3: US assets, including stocks and moving over to Europe. Is 564 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 3: that kind of played out or is that maybe a 565 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 3: longer term trend. 566 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 10: We're still doing it, so every month it seems I'm 567 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 10: selling a US company and buying a European one. Recently 568 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 10: it's we still own half of our global portfolio fifty 569 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,440 Speaker 10: two percent. It is in the US, but if you 570 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 10: look at a copway mark should be in the US, 571 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 10: so I'm not totally in the US companies, those big 572 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 10: cop tech are still dominant companies that look great. But incrementally, 573 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 10: fiscal flust is coming through in Europe, and we do 574 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 10: think the US is tapped out on fiscal fluster. If 575 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,800 Speaker 10: I'm right, move higher, the dead dynamics are going to 576 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 10: start to be a big strain in the US. 577 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,480 Speaker 2: We don't care. I mean, it's not why we head 578 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 2: you on. Do you see a new totenam with their 579 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 2: new coaching regime. 580 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 4: I don't know. 581 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 10: I'm a Manchester United fan. I know beat us in 582 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 10: the European Cup final. But Tottenham's got some quality players, 583 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,840 Speaker 10: a good coach, probably better position to do better than 584 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 10: they did last year in the league anywhere. 585 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:46,959 Speaker 4: I don't know if they'll win Europe. Okay, you can 586 00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 4: come back. 587 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 2: Patrick Krstrung, thank you so just absolutely fabulous folks to 588 00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,280 Speaker 2: look for his work often in the ft just says 589 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 2: a great, great job. Patrick Armstrong there with. 590 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,880 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 591 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,960 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 592 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,000 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 593 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 594 00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 595 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 4: Let's do the newspapers and relax. 596 00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 3: Let's do it. 597 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,600 Speaker 11: Have you ever kicked your feet up at the Waldorf Astoria? 598 00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 3: Okay, a lot of rubber chicken lunches there. It's really 599 00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 3: I can't wait to see them. 600 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 11: Well, that's the thing right, I don't. 601 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,600 Speaker 2: Want to, but there's some just spectacular moments. 602 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,000 Speaker 11: Well, you should check it out because it's starting to 603 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 11: it's opening September, but it's starting to open to a 604 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 11: few visitors for the main lobbies. So you can go 605 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 11: check it out. The New York Post got there. The 606 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 11: clock is still the clock. Yes, the clock is still there. 607 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:51,240 Speaker 3: And there you know it's not there. 608 00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,000 Speaker 11: If you ever been to Sir Harry's Bar, there no longer, 609 00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 11: no longer there. We have two new restaurants there, so 610 00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 11: you can do that. Yes, the Peacock Alley Lounge. 611 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:00,320 Speaker 5: Yes, us. 612 00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 11: And what they do have is to the the murals, 613 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,600 Speaker 11: the interior designs. They restored them, so they kept that. 614 00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 4: Extraordinary. 615 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,920 Speaker 11: Yes, yes, so it's keeping that New York elegance that 616 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,320 Speaker 11: they say that New have lost over the years. 617 00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 4: Yep, that's folks, Just one little vignette. 618 00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,560 Speaker 12: Please, When you walk down a hallway and the door 619 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 12: is open and it's the room where Cold Porter wrote 620 00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:30,040 Speaker 12: some of his giant songs of the middle twentieth century, 621 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 12: that's the way they roll at the Waldorf for the estiary. 622 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 11: Well, love of Marilyn Monroe, I mean Frank Sinatra, I 623 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,320 Speaker 11: mean they've already kind. 624 00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,040 Speaker 3: Of been there, so it is coming back. 625 00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 11: It is coming back, all right. So we'll go to 626 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 11: the Boss and Globe okay, because they have this question out. 627 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 3: How do you like your lobster roll? Okay? 628 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 11: Do you like it cold with mayo, warm with butter? 629 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 11: Or do you like it topped with caviar? 630 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:49,440 Speaker 4: Cold? 631 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:53,120 Speaker 3: Cold? Cold caveat? 632 00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 2: I saw you you did something yesterday on social Yes, 633 00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 2: Greek yogurt. 634 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,720 Speaker 11: Yes, I like mine with cold with Greek yogurt on 635 00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 11: a whole wheat hot dog butt. Okay, sorry, that's how 636 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:05,080 Speaker 11: I had. 637 00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,200 Speaker 2: A global technical director just fell off his chair in 638 00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 2: the control room. 639 00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 11: That's how I like it. But the Boss and Glove 640 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 11: gave some of their top picks. So if you're in 641 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,720 Speaker 11: the mood for one of the best ones around, they 642 00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 11: say you have to head two alive and kicking lobsters. 643 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 11: It's a family run fish market. Maybe go to James 644 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,760 Speaker 11: Hooking Company, a fish shash in the middle of box Water. 645 00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:25,719 Speaker 4: You've been there many times. 646 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 2: If I've been there and there's always a line, is 647 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 2: there it's just picnic tables and it's like it's like, 648 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:35,760 Speaker 2: are you It's back before they became Hampton's Like, I 649 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,680 Speaker 2: mean Boston lobsters, not like the Hamptons. You're not doing 650 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 2: seventy bucks. 651 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,840 Speaker 11: Producer Eric gave his topic. He said, Mabels in Maine, 652 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:44,440 Speaker 11: that is. 653 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,880 Speaker 3: The place to go have an excellent lobster roll. 654 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, thank you. I'm so damn hungry. Can we do 655 00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,880 Speaker 4: like a door dish lobster roll and put it on 656 00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 4: red O's MX. 657 00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:57,640 Speaker 11: YEP, one more for you. Two big milestones this week 658 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,360 Speaker 11: that kind of showed the struggles of broadcast networks. The 659 00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:04,000 Speaker 11: first one, Nielsen results actually showed the gap widening between 660 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:08,120 Speaker 11: viewers spending more time watching streaming services than broadcast cable. 661 00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:11,160 Speaker 11: So it's starting to widen. Forty six percent of Americans 662 00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 11: TV time spent streaming services, led by YouTube, Netflix. They 663 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,080 Speaker 11: topped the driving force. Well, you know, schools out some 664 00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:21,440 Speaker 11: more kids are streaming and kids like streaming, so that's 665 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,719 Speaker 11: a reason for it. The second thing, the other milestone 666 00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:27,240 Speaker 11: is that for the third straight week, Nielsen said Fox 667 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,480 Speaker 11: News Channel had more viewers in primetime on weeknights than 668 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 11: any of the main broadcast networks. We're talking ABC, CBS, NBC, 669 00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:38,400 Speaker 11: and Fox Entertainment. Two point four million viewers in primetime 670 00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 11: on weeknights. 671 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,479 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for doing this. Well, these are 672 00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,880 Speaker 2: Titanic shifts. I mean this was back to Moffatt, Nathanson 673 00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:49,240 Speaker 2: and Rich Greenfield. The audience is telling the fancy people. 674 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 3: What you do, and the advertisers are following you. Take 675 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,480 Speaker 3: a look at some of the advertisers on broadcast television. 676 00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,440 Speaker 3: It's just the oh, it's just the healthcare, the drug things, 677 00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:57,840 Speaker 3: because that's the audience. 678 00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 4: And secretary trying to get rid of the drug heads. 679 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 3: Yep. So I don't know what that would do to 680 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 3: the networks these days. Okay, that's just I mean, it's 681 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 3: just the trend. We've been seeing it for years and years. 682 00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,600 Speaker 2: Did you do the newspapers today or did your intern 683 00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:09,880 Speaker 2: to them? 684 00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,840 Speaker 4: Excuse me, analyst? Did you analysts to it? 685 00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,240 Speaker 11: No, No, they were off today. 686 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,840 Speaker 4: I bet they were getting ready for Thursday. 687 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,640 Speaker 2: Happy are under the bridge there at Grand Central Station, 688 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:23,759 Speaker 2: Lisa Mateo, thank you so much. 689 00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,240 Speaker 4: It is the newspapers. 690 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:31,279 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify 691 00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:35,200 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 692 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:39,080 Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot com. 693 00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:43,000 Speaker 1: The iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 694 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,400 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 695 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:48,720 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal