WEBVTT - The Conclave, Negotiation Tips, and Would You Rather 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:28.804 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:28.884 --> 0:00:31.604 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 0:00:31.284 --> 0:00:32.124 And I'm made Silver. 0:00:32.644 --> 0:00:34.804 Today on the show, Nate, we are going to be 0:00:34.884 --> 0:00:39.604 talking about the Conclave, not the movie, but the actual 0:00:39.764 --> 0:00:46.164 process for choosing the next hope and more broadly, how 0:00:46.204 --> 0:00:48.884 does group decision making work and what is the best 0:00:48.884 --> 0:00:49.604 way of doing it. 0:00:49.884 --> 0:00:53.284 We'll also be talking about negotiation, using the prompt of 0:00:53.324 --> 0:00:55.804 the movie Sinners. We're going to be talking about how 0:00:55.884 --> 0:00:58.364 to negotiate a good deal for yourself. 0:00:59.004 --> 0:01:01.404 And at the end, we will leave you with a 0:01:01.484 --> 0:01:04.484 little game that Nate and I are going to play 0:01:04.644 --> 0:01:11.764 called would you rather? By the way, listeners, I apologize 0:01:12.524 --> 0:01:14.404 my voice is a little bit shot. I am in 0:01:14.444 --> 0:01:17.324 the middle of allergy season and just off of a 0:01:17.404 --> 0:01:21.964 red eye, so I will be extra raspy today. I 0:01:22.004 --> 0:01:25.164 still love you, and yes, that's what I'm going to 0:01:25.204 --> 0:01:26.364 sound like for the pod, and. 0:01:26.324 --> 0:01:28.484 We talked about our red eyes. Drata, what flight did 0:01:28.484 --> 0:01:29.964 you take? What time was your flight? 0:01:30.524 --> 0:01:33.244 My flight was at six pm. It was the only 0:01:33.284 --> 0:01:35.284 direct flight to NIS from New York. 0:01:35.804 --> 0:01:38.804 I didn't know I had a fucking direct flight to Congratulations. 0:01:38.884 --> 0:01:42.084 Yeah, direct flights be Yeah. So I took a direct 0:01:42.084 --> 0:01:44.564 flight to Nis and then took a car from Nice 0:01:44.644 --> 0:01:47.524 to Monte Carlo. The other way to do it is 0:01:47.564 --> 0:01:50.284 to take a helicopter, but we've talked on the show 0:01:50.444 --> 0:01:54.084 about the dangers of helicopters and I did not do that. 0:01:54.484 --> 0:01:58.124 And now I'm here for EPT Monte Carlo, which happened 0:01:58.164 --> 0:02:02.284 to be my first ever international poker tournament. Back when 0:02:02.324 --> 0:02:06.004 I started playing poker, my first ever international hendon mob 0:02:06.084 --> 0:02:09.444 flagnate was from Monte Carlo. So I'm back to the 0:02:09.484 --> 0:02:11.604 scene of the crime and I have never cashed the 0:02:11.644 --> 0:02:14.724 main event here? Is this going to be the year will? 0:02:14.804 --> 0:02:16.284 Are you superscitious about that? 0:02:16.364 --> 0:02:18.044 Are you like, oh, there are certain venues where I 0:02:18.124 --> 0:02:19.364 run well or certain events. 0:02:19.964 --> 0:02:23.364 Absolutely not. I think that that's a very self handicapping 0:02:23.444 --> 0:02:24.164 way of thinking. 0:02:24.844 --> 0:02:26.884 The six pm flight, I think is the worst option. 0:02:26.924 --> 0:02:31.244 By the way, it's an awful it's hard to sleep, yeah, 0:02:32.124 --> 0:02:35.724 it's really hard. But for me, taking a direct flight 0:02:35.924 --> 0:02:38.604 is the least bad option. I would rather take a 0:02:38.604 --> 0:02:41.564 direct flight to Nise than a later flight at a 0:02:41.604 --> 0:02:43.804 more optimal time to Paris and then have to fly 0:02:43.884 --> 0:02:48.364 to Nise. So sometimes you make the least bad decision possible, 0:02:48.644 --> 0:02:52.284 which brings us to electing the pope, which directly ties 0:02:52.364 --> 0:02:56.884 to the least bad decision possible. So Nate, the Pope 0:02:56.964 --> 0:03:00.684 died as we know. Oh wait, yeah, oh my god, 0:03:01.004 --> 0:03:05.444 I'm so sorry, breaking news story. JD. Vans killed the Pope. 0:03:05.444 --> 0:03:08.804 Now I'm sorry. I shouldn't say that, but the Pope 0:03:08.844 --> 0:03:13.484 did die day after meeting with JD. Vance. I take 0:03:13.524 --> 0:03:16.364 it all back. We're not conspiracy theorists on risky Business, 0:03:16.604 --> 0:03:19.524 or are we. Okay, So the Pope is dead and 0:03:19.564 --> 0:03:21.804 now they must choose a new pope, and they do 0:03:21.924 --> 0:03:25.324 this by a process called a conclave, and it's been 0:03:25.324 --> 0:03:28.284 announced that is going to take place on May seventh. 0:03:28.724 --> 0:03:31.884 We are taping this on April thirtieth, so a week 0:03:31.924 --> 0:03:36.244 from now is when the conclave starts. And this is 0:03:36.284 --> 0:03:41.644 how the process works. So there are around two hundred cardinals, 0:03:41.964 --> 0:03:44.764 but only one hundred and thirty five of those are 0:03:44.804 --> 0:03:49.164 actually eligible to vote in the conclave because by the rules, 0:03:49.164 --> 0:03:52.044 they have to be under the age of eighty. A 0:03:52.124 --> 0:03:56.484 lot of old cardinals out there, is what I'm hearing here. 0:03:57.044 --> 0:03:58.804 So you're saying is that they're too young to be 0:03:58.844 --> 0:03:59.644 the US president. 0:04:01.124 --> 0:04:06.644 That is exactly what I'm saying, And technically speaking, any 0:04:06.964 --> 0:04:11.124 Catholic male can be elected pope. Practically speaking, it's going 0:04:11.204 --> 0:04:13.844 to be one of those one hundred and thirty five cardinals. 0:04:14.284 --> 0:04:17.164 The way that it works is they vote up to 0:04:17.644 --> 0:04:20.164 four times a day, but in the morning and in 0:04:20.204 --> 0:04:22.604 the afternoon, and they can vote once or twice in 0:04:22.644 --> 0:04:27.764 those sessions. And they basically have multiple days of meetings 0:04:27.844 --> 0:04:31.124 that have already started leading up to conclave. Then they 0:04:31.124 --> 0:04:34.124 seal the doors and the only people there are the 0:04:34.164 --> 0:04:36.884 cardinals who can vote. And then they're also you know, 0:04:36.924 --> 0:04:40.164 there's guards, there's a doctor. Everyone's sworn to secrecy. They're 0:04:40.204 --> 0:04:44.084 completely cut off from the outside world. No phones, no news. 0:04:44.164 --> 0:04:47.084 The place is swept for listening devices. You know, it's 0:04:47.124 --> 0:04:50.724 like very like hush hush. And then the vote is 0:04:50.764 --> 0:04:53.684 done by secret ballot, So everyone on a piece of 0:04:53.724 --> 0:04:56.884 paper writes their choice for the pope, folds it up, 0:04:57.324 --> 0:05:02.364 it's collected, the ballots are shaken, and then three people 0:05:02.444 --> 0:05:04.524 will read the ballots. So one person will take a 0:05:04.564 --> 0:05:07.924 ballot out at a time and will silently write down 0:05:08.364 --> 0:05:10.404 what the name is. The the second person will also 0:05:10.404 --> 0:05:12.124 write down what the name is, and the third person 0:05:12.164 --> 0:05:14.124 will read it out loud. So this is to make 0:05:14.124 --> 0:05:17.324 sure that the votes are tallied accurately. If there's a miscount, 0:05:17.404 --> 0:05:19.804 so say one hundred and thirty five people vote and 0:05:19.844 --> 0:05:21.524 there's only one hundred and thirty four ballots or one 0:05:21.564 --> 0:05:24.644 hundred and thirty six somehow, then they destroy it and 0:05:24.884 --> 0:05:27.564 do it all over. You need a two thirds majority 0:05:27.644 --> 0:05:31.204 to become pope. After each vote, the ballots are burned 0:05:31.244 --> 0:05:34.244 and smoke comes out of the chimney. The smoke is 0:05:34.364 --> 0:05:36.764 either black if they have not chosen a pope, or 0:05:36.964 --> 0:05:40.204 white if they have chosen a pope. This can take 0:05:40.444 --> 0:05:43.324 quite a bit of time. The last two times it 0:05:43.364 --> 0:05:46.564 took two days. One time it took two years. There 0:05:46.604 --> 0:05:50.044 was a lot of infighting. They weren't actually in secret 0:05:50.044 --> 0:05:54.804 conclave for that entire period, but that it took a 0:05:54.844 --> 0:06:00.604 while to elect that pope. So, first of all, you 0:06:00.684 --> 0:06:03.724 had told me before we started recording that you weren't 0:06:03.764 --> 0:06:05.164 really familiar with this process. 0:06:05.204 --> 0:06:09.124 So now what happens pre recording says pre recording Maria, I. 0:06:09.044 --> 0:06:11.764 Thought, no, no, but this is but this is actually 0:06:11.964 --> 0:06:14.724 I think it's actually a really it's good to just 0:06:15.404 --> 0:06:18.484 have a fresh reaction, because you know, a lot about 0:06:18.524 --> 0:06:23.204 decision making, So just fresh your your first reaction to 0:06:23.564 --> 0:06:27.484 how this is structured. What do you think is this 0:06:27.644 --> 0:06:31.044 a good way to make, you know, such a monumental decision. 0:06:32.044 --> 0:06:33.004 What are we thinking here? 0:06:33.564 --> 0:06:35.684 Well, my first thought is that this is an easy 0:06:35.724 --> 0:06:40.604 decision because there is a candidate named Pierre Batista Pizza Bala. 0:06:41.124 --> 0:06:43.844 He's a fucking red hat looks kind of like a 0:06:43.884 --> 0:06:46.844 pizza Pope slash hat, Like, how can you not name 0:06:46.924 --> 0:06:49.044 that guy pope? He has a divine right, I think 0:06:49.044 --> 0:06:50.404 I'm using that term incorrectly. 0:06:51.764 --> 0:06:54.244 No, Look, he's not the favorite, he's not the betting 0:06:54.244 --> 0:06:55.964 market favorite. Night we can talk about it. 0:06:56.324 --> 0:06:58.604 I got all the money and Pizza Bala I tell 0:06:58.604 --> 0:06:59.164 you that much. 0:06:59.524 --> 0:07:02.724 I mean, that's that's a pretty amazing name. I will 0:07:02.764 --> 0:07:03.684 hand it to him. 0:07:03.964 --> 0:07:07.604 No, the process I am indirectly familiar with because it's 0:07:07.644 --> 0:07:12.484 the same process essentially that like political parties used choose 0:07:12.484 --> 0:07:16.444 a candidate in the event of a broker or contested convention. 0:07:16.764 --> 0:07:19.764 Right there, you need a majority and not two thirty 0:07:19.844 --> 0:07:23.164 said it was Maria. But still they go one ballot 0:07:23.244 --> 0:07:26.604 at a time, and it can take a lot of ballots. 0:07:26.644 --> 0:07:28.364 You know, in some of the conventions in the early 0:07:28.364 --> 0:07:30.804 twentieth century, you could take more than one hundred, I think, right, 0:07:30.884 --> 0:07:35.844 and like, there's a couple of dynamics that are important, right. 0:07:36.124 --> 0:07:38.644 You know, One is that people are trying to through 0:07:38.684 --> 0:07:40.764 the kind of veil of anonymity. Of course, I can 0:07:40.804 --> 0:07:45.084 also have conversations on the side, right side channel conversations. 0:07:45.764 --> 0:07:48.444 You know, they're trying to order their preferences. 0:07:48.484 --> 0:07:48.604 Right. 0:07:48.644 --> 0:07:51.564 Maybe I do think that Pete Sabala is my first choice, 0:07:51.604 --> 0:07:53.124 but I'd rather have I'm just looking at some of 0:07:53.164 --> 0:07:56.364 these other candidates. I'd rather have Peter Trix and them 0:07:56.364 --> 0:07:59.804 Matteo Zupie, Right, and so you know, I am looking 0:07:59.844 --> 0:08:02.484 for signals about how other people vote. You can also 0:08:02.564 --> 0:08:04.924 have I don't know if this takes place in the conclave, 0:08:05.004 --> 0:08:08.684 but it does in like political American context. You can 0:08:08.844 --> 0:08:12.604 kind of play your votes to a different candidate, right, 0:08:12.644 --> 0:08:15.844 I mean there are kind of you know, and a 0:08:15.884 --> 0:08:19.684 minimum two dimensions that are important here. 0:08:19.764 --> 0:08:20.044 Right. 0:08:20.204 --> 0:08:22.404 One is you can have a more reformist pope like 0:08:22.444 --> 0:08:25.084 Francis versus ones that are more traditional. 0:08:25.164 --> 0:08:25.964 That's one dimension. 0:08:27.324 --> 0:08:31.964 Then you have Italian versus Europe versus the rest of 0:08:31.964 --> 0:08:34.404 the world. Right, you could have the first Filipino pope. 0:08:34.444 --> 0:08:36.524 You could have the first black pope, for example, And 0:08:36.564 --> 0:08:40.924 so yeah, I don't quite know how you begin to 0:08:41.004 --> 0:08:44.364 kind of model the game theory of this. My guess 0:08:44.404 --> 0:08:49.964 is that, like, there are some essentially random dynamics right 0:08:50.004 --> 0:08:52.724 where someone's like, fuck it, I'm bored of keep voting 0:08:52.724 --> 0:08:55.044 over and over again. I'm gonna shift my vote That 0:08:55.124 --> 0:08:59.284 catalyzes a chain reaction of sorts. And my guess is 0:08:59.324 --> 0:09:02.764 that if you kind of like somehow simulated this, it 0:09:02.804 --> 0:09:03.844 wouldn't be deterministic. 0:09:03.844 --> 0:09:05.084 It would be somewhat stochastic. 0:09:06.164 --> 0:09:08.644 Yeah, well, first name, I have a question, and then 0:09:08.684 --> 0:09:12.844 and then I'll reach when we're in the US political system, 0:09:12.844 --> 0:09:15.604 when you need a majority. They're not sequestered though, right 0:09:15.644 --> 0:09:18.564 like they're still they They are allowed to listen to 0:09:18.564 --> 0:09:22.804 the news and everything. It's a little bit more open, right. 0:09:23.244 --> 0:09:26.724 No, Look, today they'd all be on their phones and 0:09:26.724 --> 0:09:28.724 and there'd be a lot of implicit pressure. In the 0:09:28.724 --> 0:09:31.364 old days, it was a proverbial smoke filled rooms. It's 0:09:31.364 --> 0:09:33.204 one of the context in which that phrase kind of 0:09:33.564 --> 0:09:35.764 comes from, Right, So you might have some degree of. 0:09:37.564 --> 0:09:38.084 Isolation. 0:09:38.204 --> 0:09:41.244 Yeah, Now it's it's tricky because everything you say is 0:09:41.244 --> 0:09:45.484 on Twitter, and and you know the back channels can 0:09:45.524 --> 0:09:48.084 be compromised and leaked to the press. 0:09:48.284 --> 0:09:48.964 Yeah, I don't know. 0:09:48.804 --> 0:09:50.404 I know, if there's like a pope, if there's a 0:09:50.444 --> 0:09:55.644 Maggie Haberman of the Vatican or something, right who's leaking stuff, 0:09:55.764 --> 0:09:57.244 there has to be some way to leak stuff. 0:09:58.124 --> 0:10:01.044 No, there's there's really no way to leak stuff these days. 0:10:02.164 --> 0:10:07.284 So the you know, the idea behind the total sequestering 0:10:07.484 --> 0:10:11.084 is to keep it secretive on their side, but also 0:10:11.364 --> 0:10:16.684 to minimize the politicking that's going on. That said, I mean, 0:10:16.924 --> 0:10:19.484 the meetings have already started, so you were saying that, 0:10:19.684 --> 0:10:21.564 you know, you can pledge votes to a pope. That 0:10:21.644 --> 0:10:28.284 absolutely does happen, and popees start, potential popes start building coalitions. 0:10:28.604 --> 0:10:32.204 And even now we're still a week out and already 0:10:32.284 --> 0:10:35.404 a number of that one hundred and thirty five eligible 0:10:35.444 --> 0:10:39.404 cardinals have dropped out. Some have done it for health reasons, 0:10:40.204 --> 0:10:43.684 but people are like already who can and can't vote 0:10:44.124 --> 0:10:47.284 is a thing, because since it's two thirds, the actual 0:10:47.364 --> 0:10:50.204 number really matters, right Like, it matters if all one 0:10:50.284 --> 0:10:53.604 thirty five vote or if only one hundred and ten vote, 0:10:53.724 --> 0:10:57.884 right Like, that's a big difference. In terms of what 0:10:57.964 --> 0:11:00.924 you need for support, because even though the percentage is 0:11:00.964 --> 0:11:06.364 the same, because we're talking about very personal relationships, absolute 0:11:06.444 --> 0:11:09.284 numbers here matter, right, Do I need to get one 0:11:09.484 --> 0:11:11.604 more vote? Do I need to get three more votes? 0:11:11.644 --> 0:11:15.924 Like here? That actually does make a difference. So Paula 0:11:16.004 --> 0:11:21.604 taking starts very very early, and I think that yes, sure, 0:11:22.524 --> 0:11:27.604 sequestering them the day of the conclave accomplishes something. But 0:11:29.364 --> 0:11:35.964 I wonder, like the moment that someone you know dies, 0:11:36.044 --> 0:11:38.204 like the moment Francis died, can we just like see 0:11:38.284 --> 0:11:41.884 what immediately gather them all there like it, start sequestering 0:11:42.084 --> 0:11:43.164 because they. 0:11:43.364 --> 0:11:46.004 If they can't vote, I mean they get a break 0:11:46.044 --> 0:11:48.724 at night, right, No they they stay there. 0:11:48.844 --> 0:11:52.244 No, they can't leave, so they they h it's completely 0:11:52.324 --> 0:11:56.364 They have a dormitory on premises, so they sleep there 0:11:56.404 --> 0:12:00.444 as well. So everyone everyone is there twenty four to 0:12:00.444 --> 0:12:03.604 seven until the pope is elected. That's why they have doctors. 0:12:03.644 --> 0:12:06.324 So so the only one of some of the only 0:12:06.404 --> 0:12:09.964 people who are allowed in who are not the voting 0:12:09.964 --> 0:12:13.764 cardinals are medical professionals in case something happens, because Nate, 0:12:13.804 --> 0:12:17.684 we've already established that these are not young men who 0:12:17.724 --> 0:12:20.764 are doing this, and so. 0:12:20.484 --> 0:12:22.684 There's always ways for information to leak. 0:12:22.844 --> 0:12:26.364 There is always ways for information to leak. And I 0:12:26.444 --> 0:12:31.284 would go one step further. There are secret ballots, and 0:12:31.324 --> 0:12:39.564 there are secret ballots. Right, so we are here, you know, saying, Okay, 0:12:38.564 --> 0:12:41.924 this is your secret ballot. But first of all, they're 0:12:41.924 --> 0:12:45.964 writing it by hand. And these are men who probably, 0:12:46.044 --> 0:12:50.364 like I'm sorry, handwriting is recognizable, Like I hate saying 0:12:50.444 --> 0:12:51.964 it's true. 0:12:51.324 --> 0:12:56.244 Friends just supposedly had very discentive like small handwriting, yeah everywhere. 0:12:56.284 --> 0:12:58.484 I mean, these are men who've been handwriting their whole life. 0:12:58.564 --> 0:13:01.524 This isn't like a twenty year old who like grew 0:13:01.604 --> 0:13:05.444 up on social media and never handwrites anything. Handwriting is distinctive. 0:13:05.884 --> 0:13:08.324 You are, you know, they're sitting in an open room. 0:13:08.364 --> 0:13:11.084 They're not going to voting booths. The thing is like 0:13:11.204 --> 0:13:13.964 it's secret, but it's not secret, and you can still 0:13:14.044 --> 0:13:16.884 exert pressure on people and people can still think they 0:13:16.924 --> 0:13:21.324 still know how I'm voting, and like that sort of 0:13:21.404 --> 0:13:26.924 psychological play is definitely a factor here. And I think 0:13:27.084 --> 0:13:31.084 is you know, even though we're talking holy men, like 0:13:31.204 --> 0:13:34.404 they are not above this, Like I'm guessing that that 0:13:34.524 --> 0:13:38.324 voting and that pressure can get pretty damn vicious and 0:13:38.364 --> 0:13:41.604 there are better and worse ways to make group decisions, 0:13:41.644 --> 0:13:44.564 and yes, this is one of the better ways to 0:13:44.684 --> 0:13:47.364 try to do it. But I think that we can 0:13:47.484 --> 0:13:50.004 go a step further and try to really anonymize it 0:13:50.044 --> 0:13:52.684 and take that pressure off so that you can't point 0:13:52.684 --> 0:13:55.964 fingers and be like, see, I recognize your handwriting, Nate. 0:13:56.084 --> 0:13:58.924 I know that you voted for mister Pizza because you 0:13:59.084 --> 0:14:01.284 still like it and you don't be the bull. Good 0:14:01.404 --> 0:14:01.844 vote for me. 0:14:03.484 --> 0:14:06.284 Yeah, look, there are there's a lot of theory about 0:14:06.284 --> 0:14:09.644 how this supplies to the US Congress as well, and 0:14:09.684 --> 0:14:13.924 the public nature of the voting process. Yeah, if you 0:14:13.964 --> 0:14:15.724 had a private ballot, you might have had I mean, 0:14:15.764 --> 0:14:19.284 Trump was impeached but not convicted. It might have been 0:14:19.324 --> 0:14:23.564 convicted if you privately asked GOP centers what they thought. 0:14:23.884 --> 0:14:24.084 Right. 0:14:25.564 --> 0:14:27.284 So you know, as poker player, on the one hand, 0:14:27.324 --> 0:14:29.764 there's like a party, It's like, hey, information, I'm a journalist, 0:14:29.804 --> 0:14:33.244 so therefore therefore information is always good. We always want 0:14:33.244 --> 0:14:35.764 to give people more information and they make rational decisions. 0:14:36.084 --> 0:14:42.844 Whereas poker players, we understand that information has value and information, 0:14:43.404 --> 0:14:46.164 the existence of information and the flow of information can 0:14:46.244 --> 0:14:49.124 like can reshape the world. 0:14:50.244 --> 0:14:54.964 Yeah, absolutely, absolutely, And controlling the flow of information also 0:14:55.044 --> 0:14:58.604 has a lot of value. Who controls the information and 0:14:58.644 --> 0:15:02.524 what information gets shared and the order in which it 0:15:02.564 --> 0:15:06.164 gets shared is also incredibly important. So let's just back 0:15:06.244 --> 0:15:09.284 up a little bit, because you know, this group dec 0:15:09.884 --> 0:15:12.764 is being made in secret, but the run up to 0:15:12.804 --> 0:15:16.404 it is not in secret, and so we know, you know, 0:15:16.444 --> 0:15:18.524 we can see the betting odds, we can see kind 0:15:18.524 --> 0:15:21.284 of the stories, we see the headlines, we see of 0:15:21.444 --> 0:15:24.244 the arguments for you know, all of your front runners. 0:15:24.684 --> 0:15:28.924 Why you would want Pietro Perolin, who's currently the front 0:15:28.964 --> 0:15:33.484 runner on most betting sites, versus Luis Antonio Tagle, who 0:15:33.844 --> 0:15:38.444 is known as the Asian Francis. You know, they're that's 0:15:38.444 --> 0:15:41.564 his nickname. You know, why you'd want one or the other? 0:15:41.804 --> 0:15:45.684 The odds actually have changed. So when I looked on 0:15:45.764 --> 0:15:49.644 the twenty second Tagle was actually the odds on favorite, 0:15:49.884 --> 0:15:53.604 and now he's in second place to perilin so already, right, 0:15:53.804 --> 0:15:57.084 people have been shifting. And what we know about decision 0:15:57.164 --> 0:16:00.724 making is those early things matter, right, Like that is framing, 0:16:01.164 --> 0:16:06.604 and that is kind of dynamics that actually can affect results, 0:16:06.924 --> 0:16:10.684 Like if you can make yourself appear to be a 0:16:10.724 --> 0:16:14.604 front runner early in a decision process that can actually 0:16:14.684 --> 0:16:18.524 influence how the group makes a decision later on. You know, 0:16:18.604 --> 0:16:22.764 that first mover advantage is absolutely crucial and can really 0:16:22.804 --> 0:16:26.204 affect how people think and how they think other people 0:16:26.244 --> 0:16:29.284 are thinking. Which is also a major thing here, right, 0:16:29.604 --> 0:16:32.324 because also no one wants a two year long conclive. 0:16:32.724 --> 0:16:35.684 So you're also trying to think strategically about this as 0:16:35.724 --> 0:16:38.284 you would in any group decision. You know, how do 0:16:38.364 --> 0:16:39.964 we get to this outcome faster? 0:16:40.604 --> 0:16:44.004 Yes, this is a big media pr thing too, right, Well, sometimes, 0:16:44.044 --> 0:16:47.444 I mean increasingly you'll have people who are the subject 0:16:47.484 --> 0:16:50.604 of a critical media story, right, and they will go 0:16:50.644 --> 0:16:53.764 on their social media accounts and be like, yeah, I 0:16:53.804 --> 0:16:55.124 just want to I mean, they'll be more delicate than 0:16:55.124 --> 0:16:57.164 this way. I just want to preempt this. It's a 0:16:57.244 --> 0:17:00.604 hit job. Or let's say, I just want to preempt 0:17:00.604 --> 0:17:03.884 this by admitting I fucked this thing up, and you 0:17:03.924 --> 0:17:06.764 know the subtext and softening a little bit. Why it's 0:17:06.804 --> 0:17:08.644 not quite as bad as you think. I mean, yeah, 0:17:08.644 --> 0:17:12.764 this and you know, perpecause people are kind of lazy 0:17:12.844 --> 0:17:14.884 and it's costly to contradict people. I mean, we've probably 0:17:14.924 --> 0:17:19.804 all been in a decision making process. Right, a meeting 0:17:19.924 --> 0:17:23.084 where like maybe five people want I mean, take whatever 0:17:23.124 --> 0:17:25.324 simple example you want. Five people want to get pizza, 0:17:25.404 --> 0:17:27.364 one person wants to get Thai food, right, and then 0:17:27.444 --> 0:17:30.324 like and for whatever reason, the Thai food fucking person 0:17:30.924 --> 0:17:33.484 speaks up first and they're like, super fucking annoying. Right, 0:17:34.164 --> 0:17:36.084 you can tell I want pizza. I'm in Chicago, something, 0:17:36.084 --> 0:17:37.404 I got pizza, pizza on the brain. 0:17:37.444 --> 0:17:38.844 Here, you've got pizza on the brand. 0:17:39.564 --> 0:17:43.884 Yeah, even though it's none am Yeah, But anyway, absolutely, 0:17:43.924 --> 0:17:45.884 I mean again that goes to the notion of this 0:17:46.484 --> 0:17:48.884 it can be a bit random and stochastic, and like 0:17:48.964 --> 0:17:54.284 having having a secret ballot with minimal I am skeptical 0:17:54.284 --> 0:17:57.844 of zero information leakage is a way to diminish that. 0:17:58.004 --> 0:18:01.404 But you know, maybe a conversation you have in the 0:18:01.444 --> 0:18:04.804 hallway or things like that can have cascading effects. 0:18:05.244 --> 0:18:08.884 Absolutely, and let's actually also do the converse of that. So, 0:18:09.764 --> 0:18:14.924 as I said, Cardinal Pietro Perolyn is currently the favorite 0:18:15.204 --> 0:18:20.004 to be the next pope. He is, you know, Italian, 0:18:20.244 --> 0:18:24.244 kind of a little bit more centrist, but still someone 0:18:24.284 --> 0:18:28.084 who was close to Francis. You know, people think that 0:18:28.124 --> 0:18:31.164 he's a nice choice now imagine I'm going to do it. Total. 0:18:31.324 --> 0:18:33.084 We don't know what's going to happen in the conclave, 0:18:33.164 --> 0:18:36.364 and we will never know because, as as we've already said, 0:18:36.404 --> 0:18:41.004 totally secret. Imagine the first vote he is like number 0:18:41.044 --> 0:18:48.564 four or something, right, Imagine he's actually very performs below expectation. 0:18:49.124 --> 0:18:52.044 That also can have an outsized effect. Right when you 0:18:52.044 --> 0:18:55.244 are a perceived front runner and that first ballot doesn't 0:18:55.284 --> 0:18:59.524 go your way, that can also throw throw things into 0:19:00.524 --> 0:19:05.324 disarray and really change the dynamic of the group decision. Right, Yeah, that. 0:19:05.284 --> 0:19:11.044 First I would imagine that that he would withdraw or 0:19:11.124 --> 0:19:13.444 support would collapse after that. Right, it's like, okay, this 0:19:13.524 --> 0:19:15.804 is a guy that probably ought to start out with 0:19:15.844 --> 0:19:18.644 the head start, right, and if he doesn't, then there's 0:19:18.684 --> 0:19:23.644 a big scramble where it's like a unexpected dark horse candidate. 0:19:23.684 --> 0:19:27.364 If they got five votes out of nowhere, that probably 0:19:27.364 --> 0:19:29.524 means that might be quite bullish, right. 0:19:31.124 --> 0:19:31.444 People. 0:19:31.524 --> 0:19:34.284 Now, people can also do say hey, I just want 0:19:34.324 --> 0:19:37.404 to wait and see and prolong the process. Like in 0:19:37.444 --> 0:19:40.924 the contextilitical conventions, they might nominate like a favorite son. Right, 0:19:41.124 --> 0:19:43.964 you're a delegate from West Virginia, The governor of West Virginia, 0:19:44.124 --> 0:19:45.844 is not a viable nominee, but you want to wait 0:19:45.884 --> 0:19:49.044 and see what everyone else does and maybe like preserve 0:19:49.244 --> 0:19:52.204 time for a viable candidate who is not the front 0:19:52.284 --> 0:19:54.564 runner to gather support. Right, So you want to make 0:19:54.604 --> 0:19:58.164 sure there's no first ballot pick, so you just vote 0:19:58.164 --> 0:20:01.524 for your governor or something. Right, So people are pretty 0:20:01.524 --> 0:20:02.964 smart about this for the most part. 0:20:03.804 --> 0:20:08.844 Yeah, that's actually an interesting broader question. In any sort 0:20:08.884 --> 0:20:13.644 of group decision situation like this, does it make sense 0:20:13.764 --> 0:20:16.444 to vote for the person who you think is kind 0:20:16.484 --> 0:20:19.804 of likely to win and you'll eventually end up supporting 0:20:20.444 --> 0:20:23.164 at first or does it make sense to just vote 0:20:23.164 --> 0:20:26.964 for your preferred candidate and split the ballot, you know, 0:20:27.004 --> 0:20:30.604 one hundred ways or or or whatever it is. What 0:20:30.684 --> 0:20:35.164 is the strategically smarter decision? And yeah, Nate, if you 0:20:35.204 --> 0:20:37.804 were to I mean, if you were to pick, would 0:20:37.844 --> 0:20:42.084 you go with Perilin just because he is the betting 0:20:42.084 --> 0:20:43.564 market's favorite. 0:20:43.844 --> 0:20:46.804 No, I like, I like the you know, obviously Pizzabella 0:20:47.044 --> 0:20:51.244 pizza bala, excuse me, and then the how do you say, 0:20:51.364 --> 0:20:56.044 I guess I go with him? 0:20:56.284 --> 0:21:00.564 Yeah, that's he was actually, Yeah, Asian Francis was my pick. 0:21:00.884 --> 0:21:01.964 Is there a vice pope? 0:21:02.444 --> 0:21:02.844 You know. 0:21:06.684 --> 0:21:08.604 Him will be right back after this break. 0:21:18.124 --> 0:21:21.284 Well, Nate, now we've talked to group decision making, let's 0:21:21.524 --> 0:21:27.444 talk a little bit about negotiation. I have not seen 0:21:27.964 --> 0:21:32.204 Sinners as the movie that's taken Hollywood by storm. You 0:21:32.244 --> 0:21:35.244 have not seen it either, No, so for listeners who 0:21:35.244 --> 0:21:37.404 haven't seen it, don't worry. There will be zero spoilers 0:21:37.444 --> 0:21:40.324 because we have no idea what happens. The reason we're 0:21:40.364 --> 0:21:47.404 talking about it is because Ryan Coogler created a clause 0:21:47.484 --> 0:21:51.244 in his deal with Warner Brothers that said that in 0:21:51.364 --> 0:21:55.524 twenty five years, the rights to the film will revert 0:21:55.724 --> 0:21:59.284 to him, and so he will retain his rights. He 0:21:59.484 --> 0:22:02.004 is not the first person to have done this. There 0:22:02.084 --> 0:22:06.324 are some filmmakers like Quentin Tarantino who have been able 0:22:06.364 --> 0:22:09.564 to negotiate deals like this, but it is incredibly rare. 0:22:10.204 --> 0:22:13.804 It is something that is not seen often in Hollywood, 0:22:13.844 --> 0:22:16.524 and people are up in arms saying, oh, these kinds 0:22:16.524 --> 0:22:19.004 of deals are going to be the death of studios. 0:22:19.844 --> 0:22:23.484 You know about Totals Studio, but the fucking Disney Company, 0:22:23.484 --> 0:22:26.404 and I feel about sympathetically for them as I do 0:22:26.524 --> 0:22:29.924 for Harvard. If you've seen previous segments, and I don't 0:22:29.924 --> 0:22:33.644 think the Trump administration is targeting the White or the 0:22:33.684 --> 0:22:35.844 Walt Disney company, yet in the way he did for Harvard. 0:22:36.084 --> 0:22:39.244 So so yeah, go go fuck yourself studios. Now I'll 0:22:39.284 --> 0:22:41.684 never get a contract for anything. 0:22:45.324 --> 0:22:47.764 He didn't mean it, guys, he didn't mean it. Actually 0:22:47.804 --> 0:22:49.844 know he probably he did mean it. He did mean it, 0:22:50.564 --> 0:22:53.364 and I kind of agree. So so no, this is 0:22:53.404 --> 0:22:56.964 a completely I think this is a completely ludicrous take 0:22:57.124 --> 0:23:00.884