1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:28,804 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:28,884 --> 00:00:31,604 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 3 00:00:31,284 --> 00:00:32,124 Speaker 2: And I'm made Silver. 4 00:00:32,644 --> 00:00:34,804 Speaker 1: Today on the show, Nate, we are going to be 5 00:00:34,884 --> 00:00:39,604 Speaker 1: talking about the Conclave, not the movie, but the actual 6 00:00:39,764 --> 00:00:46,164 Speaker 1: process for choosing the next hope and more broadly, how 7 00:00:46,204 --> 00:00:48,884 Speaker 1: does group decision making work and what is the best 8 00:00:48,884 --> 00:00:49,604 Speaker 1: way of doing it. 9 00:00:49,884 --> 00:00:53,284 Speaker 3: We'll also be talking about negotiation, using the prompt of 10 00:00:53,324 --> 00:00:55,804 Speaker 3: the movie Sinners. We're going to be talking about how 11 00:00:55,884 --> 00:00:58,364 Speaker 3: to negotiate a good deal for yourself. 12 00:00:59,004 --> 00:01:01,404 Speaker 1: And at the end, we will leave you with a 13 00:01:01,484 --> 00:01:04,484 Speaker 1: little game that Nate and I are going to play 14 00:01:04,644 --> 00:01:11,764 Speaker 1: called would you rather? By the way, listeners, I apologize 15 00:01:12,524 --> 00:01:14,404 Speaker 1: my voice is a little bit shot. I am in 16 00:01:14,444 --> 00:01:17,324 Speaker 1: the middle of allergy season and just off of a 17 00:01:17,404 --> 00:01:21,964 Speaker 1: red eye, so I will be extra raspy today. I 18 00:01:22,004 --> 00:01:25,164 Speaker 1: still love you, and yes, that's what I'm going to 19 00:01:25,204 --> 00:01:26,364 Speaker 1: sound like for the pod, and. 20 00:01:26,324 --> 00:01:28,484 Speaker 2: We talked about our red eyes. Drata, what flight did 21 00:01:28,484 --> 00:01:29,964 Speaker 2: you take? What time was your flight? 22 00:01:30,524 --> 00:01:33,244 Speaker 1: My flight was at six pm. It was the only 23 00:01:33,284 --> 00:01:35,284 Speaker 1: direct flight to NIS from New York. 24 00:01:35,804 --> 00:01:38,804 Speaker 3: I didn't know I had a fucking direct flight to Congratulations. 25 00:01:38,884 --> 00:01:42,084 Speaker 1: Yeah, direct flights be Yeah. So I took a direct 26 00:01:42,084 --> 00:01:44,564 Speaker 1: flight to Nis and then took a car from Nice 27 00:01:44,644 --> 00:01:47,524 Speaker 1: to Monte Carlo. The other way to do it is 28 00:01:47,564 --> 00:01:50,284 Speaker 1: to take a helicopter, but we've talked on the show 29 00:01:50,444 --> 00:01:54,084 Speaker 1: about the dangers of helicopters and I did not do that. 30 00:01:54,484 --> 00:01:58,124 Speaker 1: And now I'm here for EPT Monte Carlo, which happened 31 00:01:58,164 --> 00:02:02,284 Speaker 1: to be my first ever international poker tournament. Back when 32 00:02:02,324 --> 00:02:06,004 Speaker 1: I started playing poker, my first ever international hendon mob 33 00:02:06,084 --> 00:02:09,444 Speaker 1: flagnate was from Monte Carlo. So I'm back to the 34 00:02:09,484 --> 00:02:11,604 Speaker 1: scene of the crime and I have never cashed the 35 00:02:11,644 --> 00:02:14,724 Speaker 1: main event here? Is this going to be the year will? 36 00:02:14,804 --> 00:02:16,284 Speaker 2: Are you superscitious about that? 37 00:02:16,364 --> 00:02:18,044 Speaker 3: Are you like, oh, there are certain venues where I 38 00:02:18,124 --> 00:02:19,364 Speaker 3: run well or certain events. 39 00:02:19,964 --> 00:02:23,364 Speaker 1: Absolutely not. I think that that's a very self handicapping 40 00:02:23,444 --> 00:02:24,164 Speaker 1: way of thinking. 41 00:02:24,844 --> 00:02:26,884 Speaker 2: The six pm flight, I think is the worst option. 42 00:02:26,924 --> 00:02:31,244 Speaker 1: By the way, it's an awful it's hard to sleep, yeah, 43 00:02:32,124 --> 00:02:35,724 Speaker 1: it's really hard. But for me, taking a direct flight 44 00:02:35,924 --> 00:02:38,604 Speaker 1: is the least bad option. I would rather take a 45 00:02:38,604 --> 00:02:41,564 Speaker 1: direct flight to Nise than a later flight at a 46 00:02:41,604 --> 00:02:43,804 Speaker 1: more optimal time to Paris and then have to fly 47 00:02:43,884 --> 00:02:48,364 Speaker 1: to Nise. So sometimes you make the least bad decision possible, 48 00:02:48,644 --> 00:02:52,284 Speaker 1: which brings us to electing the pope, which directly ties 49 00:02:52,364 --> 00:02:56,884 Speaker 1: to the least bad decision possible. So Nate, the Pope 50 00:02:56,964 --> 00:03:00,684 Speaker 1: died as we know. Oh wait, yeah, oh my god, 51 00:03:01,004 --> 00:03:05,444 Speaker 1: I'm so sorry, breaking news story. JD. Vans killed the Pope. 52 00:03:05,444 --> 00:03:08,804 Speaker 1: Now I'm sorry. I shouldn't say that, but the Pope 53 00:03:08,844 --> 00:03:13,484 Speaker 1: did die day after meeting with JD. Vance. I take 54 00:03:13,524 --> 00:03:16,364 Speaker 1: it all back. We're not conspiracy theorists on risky Business, 55 00:03:16,604 --> 00:03:19,524 Speaker 1: or are we. Okay, So the Pope is dead and 56 00:03:19,564 --> 00:03:21,804 Speaker 1: now they must choose a new pope, and they do 57 00:03:21,924 --> 00:03:25,324 Speaker 1: this by a process called a conclave, and it's been 58 00:03:25,324 --> 00:03:28,284 Speaker 1: announced that is going to take place on May seventh. 59 00:03:28,724 --> 00:03:31,884 Speaker 1: We are taping this on April thirtieth, so a week 60 00:03:31,924 --> 00:03:36,244 Speaker 1: from now is when the conclave starts. And this is 61 00:03:36,284 --> 00:03:41,644 Speaker 1: how the process works. So there are around two hundred cardinals, 62 00:03:41,964 --> 00:03:44,764 Speaker 1: but only one hundred and thirty five of those are 63 00:03:44,804 --> 00:03:49,164 Speaker 1: actually eligible to vote in the conclave because by the rules, 64 00:03:49,164 --> 00:03:52,044 Speaker 1: they have to be under the age of eighty. A 65 00:03:52,124 --> 00:03:56,484 Speaker 1: lot of old cardinals out there, is what I'm hearing here. 66 00:03:57,044 --> 00:03:58,804 Speaker 2: So you're saying is that they're too young to be 67 00:03:58,844 --> 00:03:59,644 Speaker 2: the US president. 68 00:04:01,124 --> 00:04:06,644 Speaker 1: That is exactly what I'm saying, And technically speaking, any 69 00:04:06,964 --> 00:04:11,124 Speaker 1: Catholic male can be elected pope. Practically speaking, it's going 70 00:04:11,204 --> 00:04:13,844 Speaker 1: to be one of those one hundred and thirty five cardinals. 71 00:04:14,284 --> 00:04:17,164 Speaker 1: The way that it works is they vote up to 72 00:04:17,644 --> 00:04:20,164 Speaker 1: four times a day, but in the morning and in 73 00:04:20,204 --> 00:04:22,604 Speaker 1: the afternoon, and they can vote once or twice in 74 00:04:22,644 --> 00:04:27,764 Speaker 1: those sessions. And they basically have multiple days of meetings 75 00:04:27,844 --> 00:04:31,124 Speaker 1: that have already started leading up to conclave. Then they 76 00:04:31,124 --> 00:04:34,124 Speaker 1: seal the doors and the only people there are the 77 00:04:34,164 --> 00:04:36,884 Speaker 1: cardinals who can vote. And then they're also you know, 78 00:04:36,924 --> 00:04:40,164 Speaker 1: there's guards, there's a doctor. Everyone's sworn to secrecy. They're 79 00:04:40,204 --> 00:04:44,084 Speaker 1: completely cut off from the outside world. No phones, no news. 80 00:04:44,164 --> 00:04:47,084 Speaker 1: The place is swept for listening devices. You know, it's 81 00:04:47,124 --> 00:04:50,724 Speaker 1: like very like hush hush. And then the vote is 82 00:04:50,764 --> 00:04:53,684 Speaker 1: done by secret ballot, So everyone on a piece of 83 00:04:53,724 --> 00:04:56,884 Speaker 1: paper writes their choice for the pope, folds it up, 84 00:04:57,324 --> 00:05:02,364 Speaker 1: it's collected, the ballots are shaken, and then three people 85 00:05:02,444 --> 00:05:04,524 Speaker 1: will read the ballots. So one person will take a 86 00:05:04,564 --> 00:05:07,924 Speaker 1: ballot out at a time and will silently write down 87 00:05:08,364 --> 00:05:10,404 Speaker 1: what the name is. The the second person will also 88 00:05:10,404 --> 00:05:12,124 Speaker 1: write down what the name is, and the third person 89 00:05:12,164 --> 00:05:14,124 Speaker 1: will read it out loud. So this is to make 90 00:05:14,124 --> 00:05:17,324 Speaker 1: sure that the votes are tallied accurately. If there's a miscount, 91 00:05:17,404 --> 00:05:19,804 Speaker 1: so say one hundred and thirty five people vote and 92 00:05:19,844 --> 00:05:21,524 Speaker 1: there's only one hundred and thirty four ballots or one 93 00:05:21,564 --> 00:05:24,644 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty six somehow, then they destroy it and 94 00:05:24,884 --> 00:05:27,564 Speaker 1: do it all over. You need a two thirds majority 95 00:05:27,644 --> 00:05:31,204 Speaker 1: to become pope. After each vote, the ballots are burned 96 00:05:31,244 --> 00:05:34,244 Speaker 1: and smoke comes out of the chimney. The smoke is 97 00:05:34,364 --> 00:05:36,764 Speaker 1: either black if they have not chosen a pope, or 98 00:05:36,964 --> 00:05:40,204 Speaker 1: white if they have chosen a pope. This can take 99 00:05:40,444 --> 00:05:43,324 Speaker 1: quite a bit of time. The last two times it 100 00:05:43,364 --> 00:05:46,564 Speaker 1: took two days. One time it took two years. There 101 00:05:46,604 --> 00:05:50,044 Speaker 1: was a lot of infighting. They weren't actually in secret 102 00:05:50,044 --> 00:05:54,804 Speaker 1: conclave for that entire period, but that it took a 103 00:05:54,844 --> 00:06:00,604 Speaker 1: while to elect that pope. So, first of all, you 104 00:06:00,684 --> 00:06:03,724 Speaker 1: had told me before we started recording that you weren't 105 00:06:03,764 --> 00:06:05,164 Speaker 1: really familiar with this process. 106 00:06:05,204 --> 00:06:09,124 Speaker 3: So now what happens pre recording says pre recording Maria, I. 107 00:06:09,044 --> 00:06:11,764 Speaker 1: Thought, no, no, but this is but this is actually 108 00:06:11,964 --> 00:06:14,724 Speaker 1: I think it's actually a really it's good to just 109 00:06:15,404 --> 00:06:18,484 Speaker 1: have a fresh reaction, because you know, a lot about 110 00:06:18,524 --> 00:06:23,204 Speaker 1: decision making, So just fresh your your first reaction to 111 00:06:23,564 --> 00:06:27,484 Speaker 1: how this is structured. What do you think is this 112 00:06:27,644 --> 00:06:31,044 Speaker 1: a good way to make, you know, such a monumental decision. 113 00:06:32,044 --> 00:06:33,004 Speaker 1: What are we thinking here? 114 00:06:33,564 --> 00:06:35,684 Speaker 3: Well, my first thought is that this is an easy 115 00:06:35,724 --> 00:06:40,604 Speaker 3: decision because there is a candidate named Pierre Batista Pizza Bala. 116 00:06:41,124 --> 00:06:43,844 Speaker 3: He's a fucking red hat looks kind of like a 117 00:06:43,884 --> 00:06:46,844 Speaker 3: pizza Pope slash hat, Like, how can you not name 118 00:06:46,924 --> 00:06:49,044 Speaker 3: that guy pope? He has a divine right, I think 119 00:06:49,044 --> 00:06:50,404 Speaker 3: I'm using that term incorrectly. 120 00:06:51,764 --> 00:06:54,244 Speaker 1: No, Look, he's not the favorite, he's not the betting 121 00:06:54,244 --> 00:06:55,964 Speaker 1: market favorite. Night we can talk about it. 122 00:06:56,324 --> 00:06:58,604 Speaker 2: I got all the money and Pizza Bala I tell 123 00:06:58,604 --> 00:06:59,164 Speaker 2: you that much. 124 00:06:59,524 --> 00:07:02,724 Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's a pretty amazing name. I will 125 00:07:02,764 --> 00:07:03,684 Speaker 1: hand it to him. 126 00:07:03,964 --> 00:07:07,604 Speaker 3: No, the process I am indirectly familiar with because it's 127 00:07:07,644 --> 00:07:12,484 Speaker 3: the same process essentially that like political parties used choose 128 00:07:12,484 --> 00:07:16,444 Speaker 3: a candidate in the event of a broker or contested convention. 129 00:07:16,764 --> 00:07:19,764 Speaker 3: Right there, you need a majority and not two thirty 130 00:07:19,844 --> 00:07:23,164 Speaker 3: said it was Maria. But still they go one ballot 131 00:07:23,244 --> 00:07:26,604 Speaker 3: at a time, and it can take a lot of ballots. 132 00:07:26,644 --> 00:07:28,364 Speaker 3: You know, in some of the conventions in the early 133 00:07:28,364 --> 00:07:30,804 Speaker 3: twentieth century, you could take more than one hundred, I think, right, 134 00:07:30,884 --> 00:07:35,844 Speaker 3: and like, there's a couple of dynamics that are important, right. 135 00:07:36,124 --> 00:07:38,644 Speaker 3: You know, One is that people are trying to through 136 00:07:38,684 --> 00:07:40,764 Speaker 3: the kind of veil of anonymity. Of course, I can 137 00:07:40,804 --> 00:07:45,084 Speaker 3: also have conversations on the side, right side channel conversations. 138 00:07:45,764 --> 00:07:48,444 Speaker 3: You know, they're trying to order their preferences. 139 00:07:48,484 --> 00:07:48,604 Speaker 1: Right. 140 00:07:48,644 --> 00:07:51,564 Speaker 3: Maybe I do think that Pete Sabala is my first choice, 141 00:07:51,604 --> 00:07:53,124 Speaker 3: but I'd rather have I'm just looking at some of 142 00:07:53,164 --> 00:07:56,364 Speaker 3: these other candidates. I'd rather have Peter Trix and them 143 00:07:56,364 --> 00:07:59,804 Speaker 3: Matteo Zupie, Right, and so you know, I am looking 144 00:07:59,844 --> 00:08:02,484 Speaker 3: for signals about how other people vote. You can also 145 00:08:02,564 --> 00:08:04,924 Speaker 3: have I don't know if this takes place in the conclave, 146 00:08:05,004 --> 00:08:08,684 Speaker 3: but it does in like political American context. You can 147 00:08:08,844 --> 00:08:12,604 Speaker 3: kind of play your votes to a different candidate, right, 148 00:08:12,644 --> 00:08:15,844 Speaker 3: I mean there are kind of you know, and a 149 00:08:15,884 --> 00:08:19,684 Speaker 3: minimum two dimensions that are important here. 150 00:08:19,764 --> 00:08:20,044 Speaker 2: Right. 151 00:08:20,204 --> 00:08:22,404 Speaker 3: One is you can have a more reformist pope like 152 00:08:22,444 --> 00:08:25,084 Speaker 3: Francis versus ones that are more traditional. 153 00:08:25,164 --> 00:08:25,964 Speaker 2: That's one dimension. 154 00:08:27,324 --> 00:08:31,964 Speaker 3: Then you have Italian versus Europe versus the rest of 155 00:08:31,964 --> 00:08:34,404 Speaker 3: the world. Right, you could have the first Filipino pope. 156 00:08:34,444 --> 00:08:36,524 Speaker 3: You could have the first black pope, for example, And 157 00:08:36,564 --> 00:08:40,924 Speaker 3: so yeah, I don't quite know how you begin to 158 00:08:41,004 --> 00:08:44,364 Speaker 3: kind of model the game theory of this. My guess 159 00:08:44,404 --> 00:08:49,964 Speaker 3: is that, like, there are some essentially random dynamics right 160 00:08:50,004 --> 00:08:52,724 Speaker 3: where someone's like, fuck it, I'm bored of keep voting 161 00:08:52,724 --> 00:08:55,044 Speaker 3: over and over again. I'm gonna shift my vote That 162 00:08:55,124 --> 00:08:59,284 Speaker 3: catalyzes a chain reaction of sorts. And my guess is 163 00:08:59,324 --> 00:09:02,764 Speaker 3: that if you kind of like somehow simulated this, it 164 00:09:02,804 --> 00:09:03,844 Speaker 3: wouldn't be deterministic. 165 00:09:03,844 --> 00:09:05,084 Speaker 2: It would be somewhat stochastic. 166 00:09:06,164 --> 00:09:08,644 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, first name, I have a question, and then 167 00:09:08,684 --> 00:09:12,844 Speaker 1: and then I'll reach when we're in the US political system, 168 00:09:12,844 --> 00:09:15,604 Speaker 1: when you need a majority. They're not sequestered though, right 169 00:09:15,644 --> 00:09:18,564 Speaker 1: like they're still they They are allowed to listen to 170 00:09:18,564 --> 00:09:22,804 Speaker 1: the news and everything. It's a little bit more open, right. 171 00:09:23,244 --> 00:09:26,724 Speaker 3: No, Look, today they'd all be on their phones and 172 00:09:26,724 --> 00:09:28,724 Speaker 3: and there'd be a lot of implicit pressure. In the 173 00:09:28,724 --> 00:09:31,364 Speaker 3: old days, it was a proverbial smoke filled rooms. It's 174 00:09:31,364 --> 00:09:33,204 Speaker 3: one of the context in which that phrase kind of 175 00:09:33,564 --> 00:09:35,764 Speaker 3: comes from, Right, So you might have some degree of. 176 00:09:37,564 --> 00:09:38,084 Speaker 2: Isolation. 177 00:09:38,204 --> 00:09:41,244 Speaker 3: Yeah, Now it's it's tricky because everything you say is 178 00:09:41,244 --> 00:09:45,484 Speaker 3: on Twitter, and and you know the back channels can 179 00:09:45,524 --> 00:09:48,084 Speaker 3: be compromised and leaked to the press. 180 00:09:48,284 --> 00:09:48,964 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know. 181 00:09:48,804 --> 00:09:50,404 Speaker 3: I know, if there's like a pope, if there's a 182 00:09:50,444 --> 00:09:55,644 Speaker 3: Maggie Haberman of the Vatican or something, right who's leaking stuff, 183 00:09:55,764 --> 00:09:57,244 Speaker 3: there has to be some way to leak stuff. 184 00:09:58,124 --> 00:10:01,044 Speaker 1: No, there's there's really no way to leak stuff these days. 185 00:10:02,164 --> 00:10:07,284 Speaker 1: So the you know, the idea behind the total sequestering 186 00:10:07,484 --> 00:10:11,084 Speaker 1: is to keep it secretive on their side, but also 187 00:10:11,364 --> 00:10:16,684 Speaker 1: to minimize the politicking that's going on. That said, I mean, 188 00:10:16,924 --> 00:10:19,484 Speaker 1: the meetings have already started, so you were saying that, 189 00:10:19,684 --> 00:10:21,564 Speaker 1: you know, you can pledge votes to a pope. That 190 00:10:21,644 --> 00:10:28,284 Speaker 1: absolutely does happen, and popees start, potential popes start building coalitions. 191 00:10:28,604 --> 00:10:32,204 Speaker 1: And even now we're still a week out and already 192 00:10:32,284 --> 00:10:35,404 Speaker 1: a number of that one hundred and thirty five eligible 193 00:10:35,444 --> 00:10:39,404 Speaker 1: cardinals have dropped out. Some have done it for health reasons, 194 00:10:40,204 --> 00:10:43,684 Speaker 1: but people are like already who can and can't vote 195 00:10:44,124 --> 00:10:47,284 Speaker 1: is a thing, because since it's two thirds, the actual 196 00:10:47,364 --> 00:10:50,204 Speaker 1: number really matters, right Like, it matters if all one 197 00:10:50,284 --> 00:10:53,604 Speaker 1: thirty five vote or if only one hundred and ten vote, 198 00:10:53,724 --> 00:10:57,884 Speaker 1: right Like, that's a big difference. In terms of what 199 00:10:57,964 --> 00:11:00,924 Speaker 1: you need for support, because even though the percentage is 200 00:11:00,964 --> 00:11:06,364 Speaker 1: the same, because we're talking about very personal relationships, absolute 201 00:11:06,444 --> 00:11:09,284 Speaker 1: numbers here matter, right, Do I need to get one 202 00:11:09,484 --> 00:11:11,604 Speaker 1: more vote? Do I need to get three more votes? 203 00:11:11,644 --> 00:11:15,924 Speaker 1: Like here? That actually does make a difference. So Paula 204 00:11:16,004 --> 00:11:21,604 Speaker 1: taking starts very very early, and I think that yes, sure, 205 00:11:22,524 --> 00:11:27,604 Speaker 1: sequestering them the day of the conclave accomplishes something. But 206 00:11:29,364 --> 00:11:35,964 Speaker 1: I wonder, like the moment that someone you know dies, 207 00:11:36,044 --> 00:11:38,204 Speaker 1: like the moment Francis died, can we just like see 208 00:11:38,284 --> 00:11:41,884 Speaker 1: what immediately gather them all there like it, start sequestering 209 00:11:42,084 --> 00:11:43,164 Speaker 1: because they. 210 00:11:43,364 --> 00:11:46,004 Speaker 3: If they can't vote, I mean they get a break 211 00:11:46,044 --> 00:11:48,724 Speaker 3: at night, right, No they they stay there. 212 00:11:48,844 --> 00:11:52,244 Speaker 1: No, they can't leave, so they they h it's completely 213 00:11:52,324 --> 00:11:56,364 Speaker 1: They have a dormitory on premises, so they sleep there 214 00:11:56,404 --> 00:12:00,444 Speaker 1: as well. So everyone everyone is there twenty four to 215 00:12:00,444 --> 00:12:03,604 Speaker 1: seven until the pope is elected. That's why they have doctors. 216 00:12:03,644 --> 00:12:06,324 Speaker 1: So so the only one of some of the only 217 00:12:06,404 --> 00:12:09,964 Speaker 1: people who are allowed in who are not the voting 218 00:12:09,964 --> 00:12:13,764 Speaker 1: cardinals are medical professionals in case something happens, because Nate, 219 00:12:13,804 --> 00:12:17,684 Speaker 1: we've already established that these are not young men who 220 00:12:17,724 --> 00:12:20,764 Speaker 1: are doing this, and so. 221 00:12:20,484 --> 00:12:22,684 Speaker 3: There's always ways for information to leak. 222 00:12:22,844 --> 00:12:26,364 Speaker 1: There is always ways for information to leak. And I 223 00:12:26,444 --> 00:12:31,284 Speaker 1: would go one step further. There are secret ballots, and 224 00:12:31,324 --> 00:12:39,564 Speaker 1: there are secret ballots. Right, so we are here, you know, saying, Okay, 225 00:12:38,564 --> 00:12:41,924 Speaker 1: this is your secret ballot. But first of all, they're 226 00:12:41,924 --> 00:12:45,964 Speaker 1: writing it by hand. And these are men who probably, 227 00:12:46,044 --> 00:12:50,364 Speaker 1: like I'm sorry, handwriting is recognizable, Like I hate saying 228 00:12:50,444 --> 00:12:51,964 Speaker 1: it's true. 229 00:12:51,324 --> 00:12:56,244 Speaker 3: Friends just supposedly had very discentive like small handwriting, yeah everywhere. 230 00:12:56,284 --> 00:12:58,484 Speaker 1: I mean, these are men who've been handwriting their whole life. 231 00:12:58,564 --> 00:13:01,524 Speaker 1: This isn't like a twenty year old who like grew 232 00:13:01,604 --> 00:13:05,444 Speaker 1: up on social media and never handwrites anything. Handwriting is distinctive. 233 00:13:05,884 --> 00:13:08,324 Speaker 1: You are, you know, they're sitting in an open room. 234 00:13:08,364 --> 00:13:11,084 Speaker 1: They're not going to voting booths. The thing is like 235 00:13:11,204 --> 00:13:13,964 Speaker 1: it's secret, but it's not secret, and you can still 236 00:13:14,044 --> 00:13:16,884 Speaker 1: exert pressure on people and people can still think they 237 00:13:16,924 --> 00:13:21,324 Speaker 1: still know how I'm voting, and like that sort of 238 00:13:21,404 --> 00:13:26,924 Speaker 1: psychological play is definitely a factor here. And I think 239 00:13:27,084 --> 00:13:31,084 Speaker 1: is you know, even though we're talking holy men, like 240 00:13:31,204 --> 00:13:34,404 Speaker 1: they are not above this, Like I'm guessing that that 241 00:13:34,524 --> 00:13:38,324 Speaker 1: voting and that pressure can get pretty damn vicious and 242 00:13:38,364 --> 00:13:41,604 Speaker 1: there are better and worse ways to make group decisions, 243 00:13:41,644 --> 00:13:44,564 Speaker 1: and yes, this is one of the better ways to 244 00:13:44,684 --> 00:13:47,364 Speaker 1: try to do it. But I think that we can 245 00:13:47,484 --> 00:13:50,004 Speaker 1: go a step further and try to really anonymize it 246 00:13:50,044 --> 00:13:52,684 Speaker 1: and take that pressure off so that you can't point 247 00:13:52,684 --> 00:13:55,964 Speaker 1: fingers and be like, see, I recognize your handwriting, Nate. 248 00:13:56,084 --> 00:13:58,924 Speaker 1: I know that you voted for mister Pizza because you 249 00:13:59,084 --> 00:14:01,284 Speaker 1: still like it and you don't be the bull. Good 250 00:14:01,404 --> 00:14:01,844 Speaker 1: vote for me. 251 00:14:03,484 --> 00:14:06,284 Speaker 3: Yeah, look, there are there's a lot of theory about 252 00:14:06,284 --> 00:14:09,644 Speaker 3: how this supplies to the US Congress as well, and 253 00:14:09,684 --> 00:14:13,924 Speaker 3: the public nature of the voting process. Yeah, if you 254 00:14:13,964 --> 00:14:15,724 Speaker 3: had a private ballot, you might have had I mean, 255 00:14:15,764 --> 00:14:19,284 Speaker 3: Trump was impeached but not convicted. It might have been 256 00:14:19,324 --> 00:14:23,564 Speaker 3: convicted if you privately asked GOP centers what they thought. 257 00:14:23,884 --> 00:14:24,084 Speaker 1: Right. 258 00:14:25,564 --> 00:14:27,284 Speaker 3: So you know, as poker player, on the one hand, 259 00:14:27,324 --> 00:14:29,764 Speaker 3: there's like a party, It's like, hey, information, I'm a journalist, 260 00:14:29,804 --> 00:14:33,244 Speaker 3: so therefore therefore information is always good. We always want 261 00:14:33,244 --> 00:14:35,764 Speaker 3: to give people more information and they make rational decisions. 262 00:14:36,084 --> 00:14:42,844 Speaker 3: Whereas poker players, we understand that information has value and information, 263 00:14:43,404 --> 00:14:46,164 Speaker 3: the existence of information and the flow of information can 264 00:14:46,244 --> 00:14:49,124 Speaker 3: like can reshape the world. 265 00:14:50,244 --> 00:14:54,964 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, absolutely, And controlling the flow of information also 266 00:14:55,044 --> 00:14:58,604 Speaker 1: has a lot of value. Who controls the information and 267 00:14:58,644 --> 00:15:02,524 Speaker 1: what information gets shared and the order in which it 268 00:15:02,564 --> 00:15:06,164 Speaker 1: gets shared is also incredibly important. So let's just back 269 00:15:06,244 --> 00:15:09,284 Speaker 1: up a little bit, because you know, this group dec 270 00:15:09,884 --> 00:15:12,764 Speaker 1: is being made in secret, but the run up to 271 00:15:12,804 --> 00:15:16,404 Speaker 1: it is not in secret, and so we know, you know, 272 00:15:16,444 --> 00:15:18,524 Speaker 1: we can see the betting odds, we can see kind 273 00:15:18,524 --> 00:15:21,284 Speaker 1: of the stories, we see the headlines, we see of 274 00:15:21,444 --> 00:15:24,244 Speaker 1: the arguments for you know, all of your front runners. 275 00:15:24,684 --> 00:15:28,924 Speaker 1: Why you would want Pietro Perolin, who's currently the front 276 00:15:28,964 --> 00:15:33,484 Speaker 1: runner on most betting sites, versus Luis Antonio Tagle, who 277 00:15:33,844 --> 00:15:38,444 Speaker 1: is known as the Asian Francis. You know, they're that's 278 00:15:38,444 --> 00:15:41,564 Speaker 1: his nickname. You know, why you'd want one or the other? 279 00:15:41,804 --> 00:15:45,684 Speaker 1: The odds actually have changed. So when I looked on 280 00:15:45,764 --> 00:15:49,644 Speaker 1: the twenty second Tagle was actually the odds on favorite, 281 00:15:49,884 --> 00:15:53,604 Speaker 1: and now he's in second place to perilin so already, right, 282 00:15:53,804 --> 00:15:57,084 Speaker 1: people have been shifting. And what we know about decision 283 00:15:57,164 --> 00:16:00,724 Speaker 1: making is those early things matter, right, Like that is framing, 284 00:16:01,164 --> 00:16:06,604 Speaker 1: and that is kind of dynamics that actually can affect results, 285 00:16:06,924 --> 00:16:10,684 Speaker 1: Like if you can make yourself appear to be a 286 00:16:10,724 --> 00:16:14,604 Speaker 1: front runner early in a decision process that can actually 287 00:16:14,684 --> 00:16:18,524 Speaker 1: influence how the group makes a decision later on. You know, 288 00:16:18,604 --> 00:16:22,764 Speaker 1: that first mover advantage is absolutely crucial and can really 289 00:16:22,804 --> 00:16:26,204 Speaker 1: affect how people think and how they think other people 290 00:16:26,244 --> 00:16:29,284 Speaker 1: are thinking. Which is also a major thing here, right, 291 00:16:29,604 --> 00:16:32,324 Speaker 1: because also no one wants a two year long conclive. 292 00:16:32,724 --> 00:16:35,684 Speaker 1: So you're also trying to think strategically about this as 293 00:16:35,724 --> 00:16:38,284 Speaker 1: you would in any group decision. You know, how do 294 00:16:38,364 --> 00:16:39,964 Speaker 1: we get to this outcome faster? 295 00:16:40,604 --> 00:16:44,004 Speaker 3: Yes, this is a big media pr thing too, right, Well, sometimes, 296 00:16:44,044 --> 00:16:47,444 Speaker 3: I mean increasingly you'll have people who are the subject 297 00:16:47,484 --> 00:16:50,604 Speaker 3: of a critical media story, right, and they will go 298 00:16:50,644 --> 00:16:53,764 Speaker 3: on their social media accounts and be like, yeah, I 299 00:16:53,804 --> 00:16:55,124 Speaker 3: just want to I mean, they'll be more delicate than 300 00:16:55,124 --> 00:16:57,164 Speaker 3: this way. I just want to preempt this. It's a 301 00:16:57,244 --> 00:17:00,604 Speaker 3: hit job. Or let's say, I just want to preempt 302 00:17:00,604 --> 00:17:03,884 Speaker 3: this by admitting I fucked this thing up, and you 303 00:17:03,924 --> 00:17:06,764 Speaker 3: know the subtext and softening a little bit. Why it's 304 00:17:06,804 --> 00:17:08,644 Speaker 3: not quite as bad as you think. I mean, yeah, 305 00:17:08,644 --> 00:17:12,764 Speaker 3: this and you know, perpecause people are kind of lazy 306 00:17:12,844 --> 00:17:14,884 Speaker 3: and it's costly to contradict people. I mean, we've probably 307 00:17:14,924 --> 00:17:19,804 Speaker 3: all been in a decision making process. Right, a meeting 308 00:17:19,924 --> 00:17:23,084 Speaker 3: where like maybe five people want I mean, take whatever 309 00:17:23,124 --> 00:17:25,324 Speaker 3: simple example you want. Five people want to get pizza, 310 00:17:25,404 --> 00:17:27,364 Speaker 3: one person wants to get Thai food, right, and then 311 00:17:27,444 --> 00:17:30,324 Speaker 3: like and for whatever reason, the Thai food fucking person 312 00:17:30,924 --> 00:17:33,484 Speaker 3: speaks up first and they're like, super fucking annoying. Right, 313 00:17:34,164 --> 00:17:36,084 Speaker 3: you can tell I want pizza. I'm in Chicago, something, 314 00:17:36,084 --> 00:17:37,404 Speaker 3: I got pizza, pizza on the brain. 315 00:17:37,444 --> 00:17:38,844 Speaker 1: Here, you've got pizza on the brand. 316 00:17:39,564 --> 00:17:43,884 Speaker 3: Yeah, even though it's none am Yeah, But anyway, absolutely, 317 00:17:43,924 --> 00:17:45,884 Speaker 3: I mean again that goes to the notion of this 318 00:17:46,484 --> 00:17:48,884 Speaker 3: it can be a bit random and stochastic, and like 319 00:17:48,964 --> 00:17:54,284 Speaker 3: having having a secret ballot with minimal I am skeptical 320 00:17:54,284 --> 00:17:57,844 Speaker 3: of zero information leakage is a way to diminish that. 321 00:17:58,004 --> 00:18:01,404 Speaker 3: But you know, maybe a conversation you have in the 322 00:18:01,444 --> 00:18:04,804 Speaker 3: hallway or things like that can have cascading effects. 323 00:18:05,244 --> 00:18:08,884 Speaker 1: Absolutely, and let's actually also do the converse of that. So, 324 00:18:09,764 --> 00:18:14,924 Speaker 1: as I said, Cardinal Pietro Perolyn is currently the favorite 325 00:18:15,204 --> 00:18:20,004 Speaker 1: to be the next pope. He is, you know, Italian, 326 00:18:20,244 --> 00:18:24,244 Speaker 1: kind of a little bit more centrist, but still someone 327 00:18:24,284 --> 00:18:28,084 Speaker 1: who was close to Francis. You know, people think that 328 00:18:28,124 --> 00:18:31,164 Speaker 1: he's a nice choice now imagine I'm going to do it. Total. 329 00:18:31,324 --> 00:18:33,084 Speaker 1: We don't know what's going to happen in the conclave, 330 00:18:33,164 --> 00:18:36,364 Speaker 1: and we will never know because, as as we've already said, 331 00:18:36,404 --> 00:18:41,004 Speaker 1: totally secret. Imagine the first vote he is like number 332 00:18:41,044 --> 00:18:48,564 Speaker 1: four or something, right, Imagine he's actually very performs below expectation. 333 00:18:49,124 --> 00:18:52,044 Speaker 1: That also can have an outsized effect. Right when you 334 00:18:52,044 --> 00:18:55,244 Speaker 1: are a perceived front runner and that first ballot doesn't 335 00:18:55,284 --> 00:18:59,524 Speaker 1: go your way, that can also throw throw things into 336 00:19:00,524 --> 00:19:05,324 Speaker 1: disarray and really change the dynamic of the group decision. Right, Yeah, that. 337 00:19:05,284 --> 00:19:11,044 Speaker 3: First I would imagine that that he would withdraw or 338 00:19:11,124 --> 00:19:13,444 Speaker 3: support would collapse after that. Right, it's like, okay, this 339 00:19:13,524 --> 00:19:15,804 Speaker 3: is a guy that probably ought to start out with 340 00:19:15,844 --> 00:19:18,644 Speaker 3: the head start, right, and if he doesn't, then there's 341 00:19:18,684 --> 00:19:23,644 Speaker 3: a big scramble where it's like a unexpected dark horse candidate. 342 00:19:23,684 --> 00:19:27,364 Speaker 3: If they got five votes out of nowhere, that probably 343 00:19:27,364 --> 00:19:29,524 Speaker 3: means that might be quite bullish, right. 344 00:19:31,124 --> 00:19:31,444 Speaker 2: People. 345 00:19:31,524 --> 00:19:34,284 Speaker 3: Now, people can also do say hey, I just want 346 00:19:34,324 --> 00:19:37,404 Speaker 3: to wait and see and prolong the process. Like in 347 00:19:37,444 --> 00:19:40,924 Speaker 3: the contextilitical conventions, they might nominate like a favorite son. Right, 348 00:19:41,124 --> 00:19:43,964 Speaker 3: you're a delegate from West Virginia, The governor of West Virginia, 349 00:19:44,124 --> 00:19:45,844 Speaker 3: is not a viable nominee, but you want to wait 350 00:19:45,884 --> 00:19:49,044 Speaker 3: and see what everyone else does and maybe like preserve 351 00:19:49,244 --> 00:19:52,204 Speaker 3: time for a viable candidate who is not the front 352 00:19:52,284 --> 00:19:54,564 Speaker 3: runner to gather support. Right, So you want to make 353 00:19:54,604 --> 00:19:58,164 Speaker 3: sure there's no first ballot pick, so you just vote 354 00:19:58,164 --> 00:20:01,524 Speaker 3: for your governor or something. Right, So people are pretty 355 00:20:01,524 --> 00:20:02,964 Speaker 3: smart about this for the most part. 356 00:20:03,804 --> 00:20:08,844 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's actually an interesting broader question. In any sort 357 00:20:08,884 --> 00:20:13,644 Speaker 1: of group decision situation like this, does it make sense 358 00:20:13,764 --> 00:20:16,444 Speaker 1: to vote for the person who you think is kind 359 00:20:16,484 --> 00:20:19,804 Speaker 1: of likely to win and you'll eventually end up supporting 360 00:20:20,444 --> 00:20:23,164 Speaker 1: at first or does it make sense to just vote 361 00:20:23,164 --> 00:20:26,964 Speaker 1: for your preferred candidate and split the ballot, you know, 362 00:20:27,004 --> 00:20:30,604 Speaker 1: one hundred ways or or or whatever it is. What 363 00:20:30,684 --> 00:20:35,164 Speaker 1: is the strategically smarter decision? And yeah, Nate, if you 364 00:20:35,204 --> 00:20:37,804 Speaker 1: were to I mean, if you were to pick, would 365 00:20:37,844 --> 00:20:42,084 Speaker 1: you go with Perilin just because he is the betting 366 00:20:42,084 --> 00:20:43,564 Speaker 1: market's favorite. 367 00:20:43,844 --> 00:20:46,804 Speaker 3: No, I like, I like the you know, obviously Pizzabella 368 00:20:47,044 --> 00:20:51,244 Speaker 3: pizza bala, excuse me, and then the how do you say, 369 00:20:51,364 --> 00:20:56,044 Speaker 3: I guess I go with him? 370 00:20:56,284 --> 00:21:00,564 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's he was actually, Yeah, Asian Francis was my pick. 371 00:21:00,884 --> 00:21:01,964 Speaker 2: Is there a vice pope? 372 00:21:02,444 --> 00:21:02,844 Speaker 1: You know. 373 00:21:06,684 --> 00:21:08,604 Speaker 2: Him will be right back after this break. 374 00:21:18,124 --> 00:21:21,284 Speaker 1: Well, Nate, now we've talked to group decision making, let's 375 00:21:21,524 --> 00:21:27,444 Speaker 1: talk a little bit about negotiation. I have not seen 376 00:21:27,964 --> 00:21:32,204 Speaker 1: Sinners as the movie that's taken Hollywood by storm. You 377 00:21:32,244 --> 00:21:35,244 Speaker 1: have not seen it either, No, so for listeners who 378 00:21:35,244 --> 00:21:37,404 Speaker 1: haven't seen it, don't worry. There will be zero spoilers 379 00:21:37,444 --> 00:21:40,324 Speaker 1: because we have no idea what happens. The reason we're 380 00:21:40,364 --> 00:21:47,404 Speaker 1: talking about it is because Ryan Coogler created a clause 381 00:21:47,484 --> 00:21:51,244 Speaker 1: in his deal with Warner Brothers that said that in 382 00:21:51,364 --> 00:21:55,524 Speaker 1: twenty five years, the rights to the film will revert 383 00:21:55,724 --> 00:21:59,284 Speaker 1: to him, and so he will retain his rights. He 384 00:21:59,484 --> 00:22:02,004 Speaker 1: is not the first person to have done this. There 385 00:22:02,084 --> 00:22:06,324 Speaker 1: are some filmmakers like Quentin Tarantino who have been able 386 00:22:06,364 --> 00:22:09,564 Speaker 1: to negotiate deals like this, but it is incredibly rare. 387 00:22:10,204 --> 00:22:13,804 Speaker 1: It is something that is not seen often in Hollywood, 388 00:22:13,844 --> 00:22:16,524 Speaker 1: and people are up in arms saying, oh, these kinds 389 00:22:16,524 --> 00:22:19,004 Speaker 1: of deals are going to be the death of studios. 390 00:22:19,844 --> 00:22:23,484 Speaker 3: You know about Totals Studio, but the fucking Disney Company, 391 00:22:23,484 --> 00:22:26,404 Speaker 3: and I feel about sympathetically for them as I do 392 00:22:26,524 --> 00:22:29,924 Speaker 3: for Harvard. If you've seen previous segments, and I don't 393 00:22:29,924 --> 00:22:33,644 Speaker 3: think the Trump administration is targeting the White or the 394 00:22:33,684 --> 00:22:35,844 Speaker 3: Walt Disney company, yet in the way he did for Harvard. 395 00:22:36,084 --> 00:22:39,244 Speaker 3: So so yeah, go go fuck yourself studios. Now I'll 396 00:22:39,284 --> 00:22:41,684 Speaker 3: never get a contract for anything. 397 00:22:45,324 --> 00:22:47,764 Speaker 1: He didn't mean it, guys, he didn't mean it. Actually 398 00:22:47,804 --> 00:22:49,844 Speaker 1: know he probably he did mean it. He did mean it, 399 00:22:50,564 --> 00:22:53,364 Speaker 1: and I kind of agree. So so no, this is 400 00:22:53,404 --> 00:22:56,964 Speaker 1: a completely I think this is a completely ludicrous take 401 00:22:57,124 --> 00:23:00,884 Speaker 1: because what it's saying is that, oh, you know, after 402 00:23:01,004 --> 00:23:05,004 Speaker 1: twenty five years, the creator cannot have the copyright over 403 00:23:05,044 --> 00:23:09,324 Speaker 1: his creation. And people are you know, people are saying, oh, 404 00:23:09,684 --> 00:23:14,844 Speaker 1: this is this is totally crazy. You know, the studio 405 00:23:15,044 --> 00:23:17,164 Speaker 1: is the one that financed it, They're the one who 406 00:23:17,164 --> 00:23:20,524 Speaker 1: made the movie. And yet right there would be no 407 00:23:20,644 --> 00:23:23,564 Speaker 1: movie without the person who created it, without the person 408 00:23:23,564 --> 00:23:26,524 Speaker 1: who actually made the movie who wrote about it. Now, 409 00:23:26,644 --> 00:23:29,884 Speaker 1: I was thinking about this in terms of what you 410 00:23:29,964 --> 00:23:32,604 Speaker 1: and I do, Nate, which is write books. One of 411 00:23:32,604 --> 00:23:36,404 Speaker 1: the things you and I do. So who owns the 412 00:23:36,444 --> 00:23:37,924 Speaker 1: copyright to what you write? 413 00:23:40,364 --> 00:23:44,364 Speaker 2: I guess the publish. 414 00:23:42,924 --> 00:23:45,644 Speaker 1: Well, yeah, you retained the copyright. 415 00:23:45,124 --> 00:23:49,524 Speaker 2: Eventually eventually public That's what I have an agent for. 416 00:23:51,764 --> 00:23:58,604 Speaker 1: So so you we have you know, you have publishers, 417 00:23:58,644 --> 00:24:02,684 Speaker 1: they publish your book. Everyone has different deals. You get royalties, 418 00:24:02,924 --> 00:24:07,124 Speaker 1: you know, or you don't get royalties. However however it is. 419 00:24:07,524 --> 00:24:13,684 Speaker 1: But eventually, you know, we die and the rights go 420 00:24:13,804 --> 00:24:18,524 Speaker 1: to our state, right and then they they can kind 421 00:24:18,524 --> 00:24:19,124 Speaker 1: of negotiate. 422 00:24:19,244 --> 00:24:22,724 Speaker 2: So just going in to chat see good luck with that. 423 00:24:23,884 --> 00:24:30,324 Speaker 1: The rights revert to CHAT GPT or whichever m ends 424 00:24:30,404 --> 00:24:35,764 Speaker 1: up winning that race. So no, So it's to think 425 00:24:35,804 --> 00:24:39,084 Speaker 1: that creators can't have rights to their work, that you 426 00:24:39,284 --> 00:24:42,404 Speaker 1: just kind of sell it and then that's it. It's 427 00:24:42,524 --> 00:24:46,244 Speaker 1: just a completely just insane way of looking at it. 428 00:24:46,524 --> 00:24:49,044 Speaker 1: And twenty five years. It's not like he's saying, I 429 00:24:49,084 --> 00:24:52,244 Speaker 1: get you know, in five years, you guys stop right, 430 00:24:52,364 --> 00:24:55,724 Speaker 1: stop owning these rights. Twenty five years, there's a lot 431 00:24:55,764 --> 00:24:58,164 Speaker 1: of time to make your money back. By the way, 432 00:24:58,204 --> 00:25:01,644 Speaker 1: he also invested in the movie. His production company invested 433 00:25:01,644 --> 00:25:03,964 Speaker 1: in the movie, so he is also one of the 434 00:25:03,964 --> 00:25:05,804 Speaker 1: people who paid for it. So it's not like he 435 00:25:06,164 --> 00:25:08,204 Speaker 1: puts zero dollars and zero sounds in there. 436 00:25:08,604 --> 00:25:11,844 Speaker 3: Okay, so neither of us have seen this movie yet. 437 00:25:12,044 --> 00:25:15,284 Speaker 3: I give sixty percent outs. I will eventually, but we 438 00:25:15,364 --> 00:25:18,204 Speaker 3: have done negotiations in the past, probably more than the 439 00:25:18,244 --> 00:25:21,084 Speaker 3: average person has done being kind of independent freelancers, etcetera 440 00:25:21,164 --> 00:25:24,644 Speaker 3: for a long time. So let's use some negotiating tips. Maria, 441 00:25:25,204 --> 00:25:27,524 Speaker 3: I'm gonna put you on the spot. What's your number 442 00:25:27,524 --> 00:25:28,364 Speaker 3: one tip? 443 00:25:28,724 --> 00:25:33,204 Speaker 1: All right? So my number one tip is do not 444 00:25:33,484 --> 00:25:36,884 Speaker 1: be the first to act. Don't be the first mover, 445 00:25:37,124 --> 00:25:40,204 Speaker 1: because information is power, and you do not want to 446 00:25:40,244 --> 00:25:43,644 Speaker 1: be the one who is revealing information first. 447 00:25:44,484 --> 00:25:45,884 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean doesn't that like. 448 00:25:47,644 --> 00:25:50,444 Speaker 3: Contradict the idea of framing the conversation now that we 449 00:25:50,484 --> 00:25:53,324 Speaker 3: talked about in the Pope segment. I'm not just seeing 450 00:25:53,364 --> 00:25:55,044 Speaker 3: with you, I'm being a little provocative. 451 00:25:55,244 --> 00:25:59,764 Speaker 1: Yeah, So I think that this is a really interesting dynamic, right, 452 00:25:59,884 --> 00:26:04,804 Speaker 1: there are different considerations at play. The reason I said 453 00:26:04,804 --> 00:26:08,244 Speaker 1: what I said is you don't want to end up 454 00:26:08,564 --> 00:26:13,524 Speaker 1: anchoring people too low, and you also don't want to 455 00:26:13,604 --> 00:26:18,284 Speaker 1: tip your hand as to what your expectation might be, right, 456 00:26:18,364 --> 00:26:23,284 Speaker 1: So you want them to make the first move so 457 00:26:23,324 --> 00:26:25,764 Speaker 1: that you can be the one to have more information 458 00:26:26,404 --> 00:26:29,044 Speaker 1: rather than less information. So this is like from an 459 00:26:29,124 --> 00:26:34,444 Speaker 1: anchoring standpoint and from a negotiating informational standpoint. 460 00:26:35,404 --> 00:26:40,804 Speaker 3: I mean, look, there's always negotiation before the negotiation, right. 461 00:26:40,604 --> 00:26:41,164 Speaker 2: I mean, like. 462 00:26:43,404 --> 00:26:48,204 Speaker 3: Things from if you go out to dinner or lunch, right, 463 00:26:49,004 --> 00:26:51,204 Speaker 3: who is picking up the lunch and how nice is 464 00:26:51,244 --> 00:26:53,444 Speaker 3: the place? I mean that's a signal. It might not 465 00:26:53,484 --> 00:26:55,404 Speaker 3: tell you very much. And people can be charmed by 466 00:26:55,444 --> 00:26:57,844 Speaker 3: things that are charming and not actually, you know, that 467 00:26:57,924 --> 00:27:00,844 Speaker 3: may not be a positive signal actually, right, And. 468 00:27:03,924 --> 00:27:05,324 Speaker 2: You know I have suffered in. 469 00:27:07,004 --> 00:27:13,404 Speaker 3: Negotiations sometime from actually being too polite right where it's like, Okay, 470 00:27:13,844 --> 00:27:15,444 Speaker 3: this isn't really going to work out. I want to, 471 00:27:15,524 --> 00:27:18,324 Speaker 3: like I have some social relationship with the person to maintain, 472 00:27:18,444 --> 00:27:20,684 Speaker 3: or maybe they're like a backup option later on. Right, 473 00:27:20,684 --> 00:27:23,364 Speaker 3: so you're like too solicitous stuff that you kind of 474 00:27:23,364 --> 00:27:25,804 Speaker 3: know it's going to be an offer that's insufficient or uninteresting. 475 00:27:25,844 --> 00:27:28,164 Speaker 3: And then and then yeah, I mean, look, I was 476 00:27:28,164 --> 00:27:29,764 Speaker 3: going to say, you know my approach. I guess this 477 00:27:29,804 --> 00:27:35,484 Speaker 3: is my number one tip. Be aware that giving out 478 00:27:35,604 --> 00:27:37,764 Speaker 3: information is costly. 479 00:27:38,164 --> 00:27:38,324 Speaker 2: Right. 480 00:27:38,404 --> 00:27:40,124 Speaker 3: The flip side of that, or the companion of that 481 00:27:40,164 --> 00:27:46,524 Speaker 3: being that, like, I don't think misdirection. It's just not 482 00:27:46,604 --> 00:27:49,244 Speaker 3: worth my time. Usually I think there are too many 483 00:27:49,244 --> 00:27:51,164 Speaker 3: ways it ends badly. 484 00:27:51,524 --> 00:27:54,164 Speaker 1: You know, No, I actually I totally agree with that, 485 00:27:54,204 --> 00:27:56,204 Speaker 1: and I think, yeah, ours kind of go hand in 486 00:27:56,244 --> 00:28:01,204 Speaker 1: hand information valuable, giving off information costly. And yet there's 487 00:28:01,244 --> 00:28:04,564 Speaker 1: a cost to both of our tips because the framing 488 00:28:04,844 --> 00:28:07,804 Speaker 1: can be valuable. Right, So if you are the one 489 00:28:08,164 --> 00:28:10,924 Speaker 1: who kind of frames things, that can also be helpful. 490 00:28:11,164 --> 00:28:14,324 Speaker 1: But I think you and I both are airing on 491 00:28:14,364 --> 00:28:18,844 Speaker 1: the side of information power, and so that's why we're 492 00:28:18,884 --> 00:28:21,684 Speaker 1: giving our number one tips the way that we are. 493 00:28:22,084 --> 00:28:24,444 Speaker 1: But do keep in mind, as a caveat to both 494 00:28:24,484 --> 00:28:27,964 Speaker 1: of these that framing the conversation is alwoso important. 495 00:28:27,524 --> 00:28:31,244 Speaker 3: With the important exception that, like, you know, look, a 496 00:28:31,564 --> 00:28:35,764 Speaker 3: negotiation is supposed to in most contexts result in the 497 00:28:35,804 --> 00:28:38,844 Speaker 3: positive sum agreement. Right now, if you're trying to like 498 00:28:38,884 --> 00:28:42,164 Speaker 3: rent an apartment or something, then that's more straightforward. I'm 499 00:28:42,204 --> 00:28:44,684 Speaker 3: trying to get five hundred bucks per month off the lease, 500 00:28:44,804 --> 00:28:47,244 Speaker 3: and the counter party is trying to figure out, Okay, 501 00:28:47,244 --> 00:28:50,004 Speaker 3: if this guy doesn't sign the lease, what's the expected 502 00:28:50,084 --> 00:28:53,884 Speaker 3: value of maybe taking another month to rent the apartment? 503 00:28:54,084 --> 00:28:56,884 Speaker 3: That kind of thing, right, Yeah, But like if I'm 504 00:28:56,884 --> 00:28:59,844 Speaker 3: trying to, like, let's say I'm trying to get investment 505 00:28:59,964 --> 00:29:03,364 Speaker 3: for a business venture silver bulletin or receive business or 506 00:29:03,364 --> 00:29:05,964 Speaker 3: whatever else, right, you know, I mean there is mutual 507 00:29:06,244 --> 00:29:08,124 Speaker 3: gain from information. It's like, hey, this is acually a 508 00:29:08,124 --> 00:29:10,524 Speaker 3: good idea, like because Pardoner got figuring, like how do 509 00:29:10,564 --> 00:29:13,924 Speaker 3: we how do we create value in all these different 510 00:29:13,964 --> 00:29:18,084 Speaker 3: ways that we might create value in the world. Right, Okay, Marie, 511 00:29:18,124 --> 00:29:20,524 Speaker 3: what's your what's your second hint? 512 00:29:21,004 --> 00:29:25,644 Speaker 1: My second tip is be willing to walk away. 513 00:29:25,644 --> 00:29:28,444 Speaker 2: Okay, it was my Yeah, we're. 514 00:29:28,284 --> 00:29:31,524 Speaker 1: Going to we're going to merge. Yeah, so great, so 515 00:29:31,804 --> 00:29:35,844 Speaker 1: we both we both agree that's crucial, Nate. If you 516 00:29:36,124 --> 00:29:40,284 Speaker 1: enter a negotiation and you're not willing to walk away, 517 00:29:40,404 --> 00:29:44,564 Speaker 1: you've already lost, right, because there will be a point 518 00:29:44,684 --> 00:29:48,164 Speaker 1: at which they realize that you're not going to walk away, 519 00:29:48,364 --> 00:29:50,124 Speaker 1: and then they can get what they want to get. 520 00:29:50,444 --> 00:29:52,724 Speaker 1: You need to be willing to walk away from the table, 521 00:29:53,644 --> 00:29:55,884 Speaker 1: truly willing, not just say oh yeah, I'm willing to 522 00:29:55,924 --> 00:29:59,804 Speaker 1: walk away, Otherwise you're going to you're going to be 523 00:29:59,844 --> 00:30:01,444 Speaker 1: the weaker party. 524 00:30:01,924 --> 00:30:02,124 Speaker 2: Yeah. 525 00:30:02,204 --> 00:30:04,564 Speaker 3: No, I think I benefited it in my life from 526 00:30:06,084 --> 00:30:10,724 Speaker 3: from walking away and being very patient to find a 527 00:30:10,764 --> 00:30:12,444 Speaker 3: deal that I thought was really good. Not good in 528 00:30:12,484 --> 00:30:15,484 Speaker 3: the sense of being unfair, right, but in the sense 529 00:30:15,524 --> 00:30:21,044 Speaker 3: of like, look, I hold my work product in high esteem, right, 530 00:30:21,124 --> 00:30:21,964 Speaker 3: and like, and you. 531 00:30:21,924 --> 00:30:23,004 Speaker 2: Know, look, if you're. 532 00:30:24,484 --> 00:30:28,764 Speaker 3: If you're resourceful, then you have a lot of optionalities 533 00:30:28,804 --> 00:30:31,804 Speaker 3: you get older and better connected and things like that. 534 00:30:31,924 --> 00:30:35,324 Speaker 3: I think in general, people are too quick to settle. 535 00:30:35,524 --> 00:30:37,564 Speaker 3: I think I think it's a general tip. It's probably 536 00:30:37,604 --> 00:30:42,124 Speaker 3: right in most contexts in life, right, and I think 537 00:30:42,164 --> 00:30:44,524 Speaker 3: I think in the context of negotiations too. I mean, 538 00:30:44,564 --> 00:30:47,444 Speaker 3: it's very powerful as a negotiating tactic. But also like 539 00:30:48,164 --> 00:30:50,244 Speaker 3: you know, look, I've had deals that fell through that 540 00:30:50,764 --> 00:30:53,724 Speaker 3: I would have been worse off if I had signed them. 541 00:30:53,764 --> 00:30:58,004 Speaker 1: Right, absolutely, Yeah, And that actually goes to my tip 542 00:30:58,084 --> 00:31:01,884 Speaker 1: number three, which is before you enter the negotiation, right 543 00:31:02,044 --> 00:31:06,444 Speaker 1: down and know what your non negotiables are, right, Like, 544 00:31:06,724 --> 00:31:09,724 Speaker 1: what are the few things that like you absolutely must 545 00:31:09,764 --> 00:31:12,004 Speaker 1: have and you don't have to like state them all, 546 00:31:12,044 --> 00:31:14,844 Speaker 1: but just know these are the things that like without 547 00:31:14,884 --> 00:31:18,684 Speaker 1: this or it can be either way. Either without this, 548 00:31:18,804 --> 00:31:21,604 Speaker 1: I walk away or if this happens, then I walk away. 549 00:31:21,884 --> 00:31:25,924 Speaker 1: And then do not negotiate on those, no matter how 550 00:31:25,964 --> 00:31:30,284 Speaker 1: compelling other things might look. Know what your core principles are, right, 551 00:31:30,524 --> 00:31:33,684 Speaker 1: and don't compromise them in the heat of the moment, 552 00:31:33,884 --> 00:31:37,884 Speaker 1: under emotion, whatever it is. Because it's really easy to 553 00:31:38,164 --> 00:31:41,084 Speaker 1: try to convince yourself in the moment. If someone's like, Okay, 554 00:31:41,084 --> 00:31:43,924 Speaker 1: well i'll give you this much more money. If you 555 00:31:43,964 --> 00:31:46,084 Speaker 1: can just accept this one thing you really don't want 556 00:31:46,084 --> 00:31:49,164 Speaker 1: to accept, it can be easy to convince yourself that 557 00:31:49,244 --> 00:31:51,044 Speaker 1: it will be okay, and in the long run it 558 00:31:51,084 --> 00:31:53,724 Speaker 1: probably won't if this was one of your core principles. 559 00:31:53,884 --> 00:31:56,004 Speaker 1: That's why it's important to know those ahead of time. 560 00:31:56,124 --> 00:31:58,444 Speaker 1: I'm not talking a long list. I just mean like, 561 00:31:58,524 --> 00:32:01,004 Speaker 1: sometimes there are just a few crucial things that you 562 00:32:01,204 --> 00:32:03,724 Speaker 1: know that you must have or that you absolutely can't have. 563 00:32:05,284 --> 00:32:11,844 Speaker 3: My third tip is kind of like focus on someone's negotiables, 564 00:32:12,044 --> 00:32:16,204 Speaker 3: and I would say, in hooker terms like exploit that right, 565 00:32:17,604 --> 00:32:20,964 Speaker 3: arranging from small to large. When I negotiate my deal 566 00:32:21,004 --> 00:32:23,004 Speaker 3: with Disney back in twenty thirteen, I guess it was, 567 00:32:23,044 --> 00:32:26,644 Speaker 3: you know, one thing I asked for was like business 568 00:32:26,644 --> 00:32:31,244 Speaker 3: class travel and accommodations because it's relatively small cost. Right, 569 00:32:31,284 --> 00:32:33,884 Speaker 3: it might be worth one percent of the salary or something, 570 00:32:33,924 --> 00:32:35,284 Speaker 3: but they're not going to blow up the whole deal 571 00:32:35,324 --> 00:32:39,244 Speaker 3: over that kind of thing, and so it's free basically, right. 572 00:32:39,444 --> 00:32:41,924 Speaker 3: A more serious thing is like they, I think did 573 00:32:41,924 --> 00:32:45,564 Speaker 3: not appreciate the value of the intellectual property of the models, right, 574 00:32:45,604 --> 00:32:47,364 Speaker 3: and so like you have to go to totally to 575 00:32:47,364 --> 00:32:49,404 Speaker 3: town there. I mean, that's almost a more important provision 576 00:32:49,404 --> 00:32:52,724 Speaker 3: than it turned out than like my license fee and 577 00:32:52,804 --> 00:32:56,644 Speaker 3: salary and things like that, but like paying attention to 578 00:32:56,684 --> 00:33:00,844 Speaker 3: the non central terms that are important to you, especially 579 00:33:00,884 --> 00:33:04,844 Speaker 3: the other side seems blind to them and and is desperate, right, Like, 580 00:33:04,844 --> 00:33:08,764 Speaker 3: it's sometimes easier to negotiate on things that aren't salary 581 00:33:08,884 --> 00:33:11,924 Speaker 3: when they're when they're material. 582 00:33:12,684 --> 00:33:16,604 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely absolutely, And so I think that this, like 583 00:33:16,724 --> 00:33:22,204 Speaker 1: to me, that would all of our tips kind of 584 00:33:22,804 --> 00:33:25,764 Speaker 1: make a tip number four, which is like a meta thing, 585 00:33:26,644 --> 00:33:33,004 Speaker 1: which is, don't negotiate when you're emotional, like under under pressure, 586 00:33:33,204 --> 00:33:36,644 Speaker 1: under emotion. Think through all of these things ahead of time, 587 00:33:37,844 --> 00:33:40,044 Speaker 1: try to do a lot of work ahead of time, 588 00:33:40,364 --> 00:33:44,644 Speaker 1: and try to give yourself time to you know, execute one, two, 589 00:33:44,644 --> 00:34:03,164 Speaker 1: and three, and we'll be back right after this. All right, Nate, 590 00:34:04,204 --> 00:34:08,884 Speaker 1: Let's play a game called would you rather? Okay, all right, Nate, 591 00:34:09,004 --> 00:34:11,764 Speaker 1: would you rather be President of the United States or 592 00:34:11,804 --> 00:34:12,524 Speaker 1: the next pope? 593 00:34:12,804 --> 00:34:14,284 Speaker 3: I'd rather be president. I mean, first of all, I'm 594 00:34:14,324 --> 00:34:19,724 Speaker 3: not pappable, right, I'm not Catholic. Various other problems doubly. 595 00:34:19,804 --> 00:34:22,924 Speaker 1: I'm doubly not pappable. I'm not. 596 00:34:22,604 --> 00:34:25,084 Speaker 3: If there are only two people left, I'm gonna become 597 00:34:25,124 --> 00:34:25,444 Speaker 3: the Pope. 598 00:34:25,484 --> 00:34:27,764 Speaker 2: I'm sorry, Maria, right you are. 599 00:34:27,804 --> 00:34:31,684 Speaker 3: I don't think I want to be president, but I mean, 600 00:34:31,724 --> 00:34:34,404 Speaker 3: I yeah, I mean way better than being fucking not 601 00:34:34,444 --> 00:34:37,244 Speaker 3: fucking I respect the Catholic. What am I even talking about. 602 00:34:38,004 --> 00:34:40,644 Speaker 3: I'd rather be president of the United States? 603 00:34:41,004 --> 00:34:42,044 Speaker 2: Okay, Maria. 604 00:34:42,084 --> 00:34:46,564 Speaker 3: Would you rather be underestimated in every negotiation or feared 605 00:34:46,564 --> 00:34:47,484 Speaker 3: in every negotiation? 606 00:34:49,404 --> 00:34:52,924 Speaker 1: Well, I know how the first one feels, because that's 607 00:34:53,084 --> 00:34:55,124 Speaker 1: that's the way I've gone through life, and I think 608 00:34:55,164 --> 00:34:57,364 Speaker 1: it's actually a pretty good thing. So I'm just gonna 609 00:34:57,404 --> 00:35:00,644 Speaker 1: choose choose the devil. I know, I'd rather be underestimated 610 00:35:00,644 --> 00:35:05,444 Speaker 1: in every negotiation because if people underestimate you, then it 611 00:35:05,484 --> 00:35:10,844 Speaker 1: can be easier to to surprise them, right, and to 612 00:35:10,924 --> 00:35:13,444 Speaker 1: pull off stuff that they wouldn't expect coming from you. 613 00:35:13,844 --> 00:35:15,924 Speaker 1: That said, like, sometimes I think it would be pretty 614 00:35:15,924 --> 00:35:19,044 Speaker 1: cool to be feared, and no one ever fears me. 615 00:35:20,244 --> 00:35:21,964 Speaker 1: They look at the. 616 00:35:22,124 --> 00:35:24,284 Speaker 3: Weird things too, where like you can like win a 617 00:35:24,284 --> 00:35:27,844 Speaker 3: negotiation for an outcome that winds up not being great 618 00:35:27,884 --> 00:35:30,204 Speaker 3: for you, right, because someone is cowed and it's omission 619 00:35:30,324 --> 00:35:34,364 Speaker 3: and they are unhappy, right, and you kind of and 620 00:35:34,404 --> 00:35:38,364 Speaker 3: you receive worse information from them. We talked before about 621 00:35:38,404 --> 00:35:40,644 Speaker 3: sometimes it's not a purely zero sum game. 622 00:35:40,964 --> 00:35:42,764 Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that's I would agree with that. 623 00:35:43,164 --> 00:35:48,004 Speaker 1: All right, Nay? Would you rather be an average American 624 00:35:48,244 --> 00:35:52,444 Speaker 1: or Chinese citizen a year from now American USA? Fuck? 625 00:35:52,564 --> 00:35:52,924 Speaker 2: Yeah? 626 00:35:53,324 --> 00:35:53,364 Speaker 1: No? 627 00:35:53,564 --> 00:35:56,884 Speaker 2: I actually what reason? It's been a busy week. 628 00:35:56,924 --> 00:36:00,804 Speaker 3: I went and gave a talk at West Point on Monday, 629 00:36:00,964 --> 00:36:03,724 Speaker 3: actually spent the whole day there. So not too many 630 00:36:03,764 --> 00:36:07,364 Speaker 3: civilians get that opportunity. And like you know, these cadets 631 00:36:07,364 --> 00:36:12,524 Speaker 3: who forsake traditional college experience to commit to five years 632 00:36:12,524 --> 00:36:15,004 Speaker 3: serving the country, we're very smart, and like you know, 633 00:36:15,044 --> 00:36:16,844 Speaker 3: it's a very selective program, right, You can't just do 634 00:36:16,924 --> 00:36:19,764 Speaker 3: it unless you're very very good. But that made me 635 00:36:19,764 --> 00:36:23,524 Speaker 3: a little bit more optimistic for the future of the country. Nice, okay, MARIREGT. 636 00:36:23,564 --> 00:36:28,084 Speaker 3: Would you rather let current AI decide? So chat GPT, 637 00:36:28,204 --> 00:36:30,044 Speaker 3: you get to use version four point five year I'm 638 00:36:30,044 --> 00:36:33,364 Speaker 3: going to tell you when to launch nuclear weapons or 639 00:36:33,404 --> 00:36:37,524 Speaker 3: the June twenty twenty four version of Biden the day 640 00:36:37,564 --> 00:36:41,324 Speaker 3: that Biden did that debate, for example, So. 641 00:36:42,404 --> 00:36:46,684 Speaker 1: I am not trying to be tech alarmist, but I 642 00:36:46,684 --> 00:36:49,364 Speaker 1: would actually still say June twenty twenty four, Biden, because 643 00:36:49,404 --> 00:36:52,164 Speaker 1: he wouldn't be the one making the decision, okay, right, 644 00:36:52,524 --> 00:36:55,764 Speaker 1: He has his smart advisors making the decision. And all 645 00:36:55,804 --> 00:36:59,404 Speaker 1: he does is, you know, he lacks capacity for his 646 00:36:59,444 --> 00:37:04,444 Speaker 1: own independent meddling, and he just says he just like 647 00:37:04,804 --> 00:37:07,884 Speaker 1: he says fine on whatever it is, because he's exhausted. 648 00:37:07,924 --> 00:37:12,204 Speaker 1: You know, he's done. Here was my so exactly exactly, 649 00:37:12,284 --> 00:37:14,804 Speaker 1: and he like the one thing other than stepping down 650 00:37:15,324 --> 00:37:17,844 Speaker 1: at which he did eventually do, he did listen to 651 00:37:17,884 --> 00:37:22,084 Speaker 1: his advisors, and so I think that that would be 652 00:37:22,124 --> 00:37:27,564 Speaker 1: my choice. And with that, Nate, I am off to well, actually, no, 653 00:37:27,684 --> 00:37:29,724 Speaker 1: I'm going to make a good decision. I was going 654 00:37:29,804 --> 00:37:32,044 Speaker 1: to say, I am off to play my first tournament 655 00:37:32,084 --> 00:37:34,884 Speaker 1: at EPT Monte Carlo. But I'm not going to play 656 00:37:35,204 --> 00:37:37,604 Speaker 1: because I am off of a red eye, I did 657 00:37:37,644 --> 00:37:40,324 Speaker 1: not sleep, I'm exhausted, and it's going to be a 658 00:37:40,364 --> 00:37:41,724 Speaker 1: minus CVO. Love. 659 00:37:41,844 --> 00:37:42,604 Speaker 2: I love that. 660 00:37:42,924 --> 00:37:43,884 Speaker 1: I love that turn. 661 00:37:44,084 --> 00:37:48,564 Speaker 3: I love the barreling into town right late regis late 662 00:37:48,604 --> 00:37:52,524 Speaker 3: regime from mccaren Airport. I love the I love blowing 663 00:37:52,524 --> 00:37:55,204 Speaker 3: my first bullet on, like, you know, a fifteen hundred 664 00:37:55,244 --> 00:37:58,564 Speaker 3: dollars Omaha eight tournament. I'm going to fucking like Yeah, 665 00:37:58,564 --> 00:38:00,964 Speaker 3: I like getting the babbling out of the way really soon. 666 00:38:02,364 --> 00:38:04,844 Speaker 1: Well, but but the three hour jet lag is not 667 00:38:05,044 --> 00:38:08,764 Speaker 1: a nine hour or six hour jet lag. So after 668 00:38:08,844 --> 00:38:11,684 Speaker 1: a red eye, be tough. That said, I have played 669 00:38:11,684 --> 00:38:14,884 Speaker 1: this first day at Monte Carlo in the past, but 670 00:38:15,004 --> 00:38:17,044 Speaker 1: right now I think I'm just a little bit too tired, 671 00:38:17,084 --> 00:38:19,324 Speaker 1: and I'm going to be responsible, Nate. I'm going to 672 00:38:19,364 --> 00:38:25,404 Speaker 1: be financially responsible and not not blow eleven hundred responsibilities. 673 00:38:25,404 --> 00:38:27,724 Speaker 3: You can do something irresponsible later. That's how I That's 674 00:38:27,724 --> 00:38:28,084 Speaker 3: how I love. 675 00:38:28,284 --> 00:38:31,364 Speaker 1: Yes, Yes, so I will. I will be able to 676 00:38:31,404 --> 00:38:35,364 Speaker 1: reward myself with a little treat later on because I'm 677 00:38:35,404 --> 00:38:37,924 Speaker 1: being so good right now. What are you going to do, Nate? 678 00:38:38,084 --> 00:38:40,044 Speaker 1: You are in Chicago. Are you going to go eat 679 00:38:40,044 --> 00:38:40,524 Speaker 1: some pizza? 680 00:38:41,124 --> 00:38:41,884 Speaker 2: I probably won't. 681 00:38:41,964 --> 00:38:46,524 Speaker 3: It's hard to find non heavy food, and it's probably 682 00:38:46,524 --> 00:38:48,644 Speaker 3: some Mexican Actually, I love the Mexican go. 683 00:38:48,564 --> 00:38:51,724 Speaker 1: To peaquads, peaquads. I like, I'm here by my pizza. 684 00:38:51,844 --> 00:38:54,124 Speaker 3: I mean seeing some friends there tomorrow at their place. Yeah, 685 00:38:54,164 --> 00:38:56,564 Speaker 3: I'm not going to have a whole fucking pizza by myself. 686 00:38:56,604 --> 00:39:00,524 Speaker 1: I don't think you can eat some pea quads and 687 00:39:00,524 --> 00:39:01,564 Speaker 1: bring the rest for your friends. 688 00:39:01,604 --> 00:39:03,364 Speaker 2: Okay, let me let me, let me, let me. Let 689 00:39:03,404 --> 00:39:06,524 Speaker 2: me evaluate some options. Maria, peakwads is quite good. 690 00:39:07,004 --> 00:39:09,324 Speaker 1: Peaquads is quite good. Now I've put it in your brain, 691 00:39:09,804 --> 00:39:18,524 Speaker 1: and with that, we'll see you all next week. Risky 692 00:39:18,524 --> 00:39:21,324 Speaker 1: Business is hosted by me Maria Kanikova. 693 00:39:21,084 --> 00:39:23,444 Speaker 3: And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co 694 00:39:23,524 --> 00:39:27,564 Speaker 3: production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 695 00:39:27,564 --> 00:39:31,604 Speaker 3: by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya Gerwit. Sally 696 00:39:31,684 --> 00:39:34,724 Speaker 3: Helm is our editor, and our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 697 00:39:35,244 --> 00:39:36,444 Speaker 2: Mixing by Sarah Bruger. 698 00:39:36,764 --> 00:39:39,124 Speaker 1: If you like this show, please rate and review us 699 00:39:39,164 --> 00:39:41,524 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too. Thanks so much 700 00:39:41,564 --> 00:39:42,084 Speaker 1: for tuning in.