1 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to Trilliance. I'm Joel Webber and I'm Eric Beljunas. Eric. 2 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: Welcome to It's pretty good. It's gonna be It's gonna 3 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 1: be a lot like or different. Some things the same, 4 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: some things are different. I'm looking forward to it, though 5 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: it's hard to believe. I'm old enough where I just 6 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 1: would be like in a movie where they like the 7 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: future really far in the future, we're Yeah, I think, 8 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 1: um just hard to believe how how old we're getting. 9 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: When you think of that, do you think like Blade 10 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 1: Runner or do you think like ack me cartoons. I'm 11 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 1: thinking like Escape from New York or Terminator. I think 12 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,839 Speaker 1: Escape from New York might have been or something. They're like, 13 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: we'll wait wait past that. Okay, So we've got some 14 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: tickers for the year ahead. Yeah. So we did our outlook, 15 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: which is sort of the more traditional thing that analysts do, 16 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: especially in Blueberg Intelligence. But one of the not so 17 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: traditional thing we do is a little bit maybe buzz feedish. 18 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 1: We make a listical which is their twenty three e 19 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 1: t f s we're watching, And this was born out 20 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:15,319 Speaker 1: of we have all of the analysts occasionally do something 21 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: called the Money Show, which is an event that is 22 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: all of our different cities, and it's direct retail investors 23 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 1: go to these hotels and just here from experts. There's 24 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 1: no middle people, no advisors, no institutions, nothing at these shows. 25 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: These people want to hear about tickers. They don't really 26 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 1: care about your trends or you're you know, four thousand 27 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 1: foot view. They they're just curious about all the new 28 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: gadgets and tickers that they have access to. And E 29 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 1: t F give you access to a lot. So we 30 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: do this list not to say these e t F 31 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 1: s are going to go up or down. We can't 32 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 1: do that. We don't give investent advice. However, these are 33 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: e t F s that we think about and have 34 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: moved us or that we are watching because they sort 35 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: of tap into something else going on or one of 36 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 1: our big themes. And so these are just generally e 37 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: t s on our mind that we will be checking 38 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: in too regularly in the new year. So joining us 39 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 1: for this episode James Safer and Athanasios Seraphagus with Bloomberg 40 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: Intelligence as well as Scarlet Food with Bloomberg News. There's 41 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: time on Trilliance for three. James, Athanasios, Scarlett thanks for 42 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 1: joining us on Trillians. Thank you, Yeah, thanks for having me. 43 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: Glad to be back. Okay, James, why don't you kick 44 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 1: us off? What's your top pick for next year? Yeah? 45 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 1: So in the intra, Eric said, it's sometimes it's a ticker. 46 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,919 Speaker 1: Sometimes it's something that's more emblematic if something we're watching. Um, 47 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: so mine is VTV, which is a very boring pick. 48 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 1: It's the Vanguard Value Fund. But the reason I'm picking 49 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: it is because Vanguards has a patent in the way 50 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 1: that they operate this fund. So VTV is actually a 51 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 1: share class of the Vanguard Value Mutual Fund Index fund. 52 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:51,799 Speaker 1: That process has patents, so nobody else has been able 53 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 1: to mimic that. Every et F has been a standalone fund. 54 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:58,959 Speaker 1: But in May of three that patent expires. Now, if 55 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,919 Speaker 1: this isn't mean yeah, I mean if this was eight 56 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: years ago, I'd be like, we'd be jumping from the rooftops, 57 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: like this could be a huge deal, right, I mean 58 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: right now, because it's a lot of people already converting 59 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 1: e t f s are way bigger than they were 60 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: when this patent was a much bigger deal, So we 61 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 1: don't know how big of a deal it's going to 62 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 1: be but I'd be shocked if we don't see some 63 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: sort of asset managers looking at VT things like VTV 64 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: and saying, maybe we can do this rather than converting 65 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 1: our entire fund, or at least talking about doing it now. 66 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: I don't know if we'll see someone do it, Ine, 67 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 1: that'd be very interesting to watch, um, but I think 68 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: there'll be a lot of people looking at that, that 69 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: actual structure and thinking about implementing it themselves. Yeah, um, 70 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: this is well. Conversions are huge. There's UM sixty billion 71 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 1: dollars worth of mutual funds that have converted into e 72 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: t f s from big issuers and Fidelity just not 73 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: it is a big deal. So this is another option 74 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 1: for them potentially that's opened up. However, I ran into 75 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: the woman who was the lawyer on m Guinness Atkinson 76 00:03:56,080 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 1: the first conversion. She downplayed it. She says this, um A, 77 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 1: there's several patents they have that are related to it, 78 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 1: and Vanguard could probably prolong that. So there's some legal 79 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 1: things that could happen. Also, a lot of these issuers 80 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: have moved on already. They've launched their own ETFs that 81 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: are clones. They're doing conversions. Um. The other thing is 82 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 1: with e t F share class. It helps if you 83 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 1: have inflows, but if you have outflows, then it can 84 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: sometimes actually mean that the e t F gets capital 85 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:27,359 Speaker 1: gains from the mutual fund seeing outflows, and that that's 86 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: like the opposite of what you want. So there's it's 87 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,479 Speaker 1: a little trickier than people think. I think it will 88 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: be interesting for sure. Um, but I'm I'm a little 89 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: I don't know, i uh skeptical that will see big 90 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:43,919 Speaker 1: money use this route. I think though, I'm I'm with 91 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: Derek for the most part. I think, like I said 92 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:47,720 Speaker 1: eight years ago, this would be I think this would 93 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 1: be a huge talking point. Um. Right now, I think 94 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: it's more just like is somebody going to do this? 95 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 1: And obviously, I mean the same thing was with mutual 96 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: fund conversions. We were early in saying that we thought 97 00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: there was gonna be a mask conversions of mutual funds ETFs. 98 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 1: A lot of people in the industry disagree with us. 99 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 1: We're not as bullish on this this trend taking hold, 100 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: but um, we'll definitely be watching. Especially give me an 101 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: e t F that we're gonna we should know about 102 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,280 Speaker 1: next year. What are you watching? Sure? So one thing 103 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: that's on my radar for next year is Russia. Remember 104 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,479 Speaker 1: this story for the Russia ets this year, one in 105 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 1: particular rs X, which was the Vanneck Russia e t F. 106 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 1: It was the biggest one. But I think this story 107 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 1: has to come to a close next year. These are 108 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: still halted, so a lot of investors are still stuck 109 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 1: with this e t F. There's been some process beginning 110 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: to unwind. Some of the other ones, like I Shares 111 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,359 Speaker 1: have said they're going to start liquidating it. There's a 112 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 1: lot in Europe. Our van Neck hasn't said anything yet, 113 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: but I think this is gonna be a big year 114 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:52,040 Speaker 1: where this starts to unwind and it impacts a lot 115 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: of other ETF. A lot of emerging market BTF are 116 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 1: still holding Russia. This is a roach motel. You you 117 00:05:57,760 --> 00:05:59,719 Speaker 1: got in and you can't get out, and people have 118 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: been up there for for months essentially. Yeah, in March 119 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: will be like almost a year. So and it's not 120 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: just RSX. People don't realize that there is still Russia 121 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: stocks splattered all over these random ETFs. So i'd like, 122 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: you know, I Share has already begun the process, so 123 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: it's probably gonna look similar to like a bankruptcy proceeding. 124 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 1: They're going to try to get what they can when 125 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 1: they can and start to pay out investors. So I 126 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,119 Speaker 1: think that RSX is going to be a big story 127 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:28,839 Speaker 1: for next year. Is that how this thing gets unwound 128 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: and investors at least get some of their money back. 129 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:34,159 Speaker 1: What happens if it's an emerging market et F and 130 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,279 Speaker 1: it has some Russia exposure? Yeah, I think they're gonna try. 131 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 1: I think would be the same process. But what people 132 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: don't realize is the emerging market ones hold way more 133 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: than even RSX. Our access is just I think a 134 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:48,160 Speaker 1: really good indication of how this might work. But yeah, 135 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 1: so if you hold like e M or im G, 136 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: there's still Russia stocks stuck in there, even the big 137 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: vanguard once. So I'd be really interesting to see how 138 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: this all gets uh, you know, how will they try 139 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 1: to get some money out of it? Or if there's 140 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: some resolutions of the war next year to start seeing 141 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 1: this onlinding process. If I'm in that fund, I just say, 142 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: don't do anything. Let me just wait till some resolution 143 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: or at least hope for that. This could be years, 144 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: because I'd rather I'd rather wait than get nothing now. 145 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 1: Not as well. I mean, I don't think RUSH is 146 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: going to exclude itself from the global world, you know, 147 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 1: capital markets forever. Yeah, I think at some point to 148 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: be a resolution. Um, but maybe I'm wrong. But it 149 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: doesn't matter. It's like a tire or win if you 150 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: if you wait, you can't lose anymore. It's already nothing, Okay, okay, next, next, 151 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 1: unless you need the cash eric next. Yeah, So you 152 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: know how it used to be like all about growth 153 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 1: and work from homestocks and ARC and everything. Well, obviously 154 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:47,239 Speaker 1: when the Fits started hiking, everything changed and fundamentals became 155 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 1: cool again, right, became essential essential. Yes, as Bogel says 156 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: in the End, reality rules, and so ARC is taken 157 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: to quoting Jack Bogel, like spend it two years living 158 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 1: book in his world. Yeah, so cows. And obviously this 159 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: is one that had a big year this year. Curious 160 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: to see if this maintains this year next year. This 161 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 1: basically is NETF that looks at free cash flow and 162 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: free cash flow rules. In this kind of environment, it matters. Now, Yeah, 163 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 1: if you have cash, you have there's stuff you can do. 164 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: Having cash gives you protection from these horrible markets. And 165 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 1: so this is an ETF that wasn't up really, but 166 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 1: it wasn't down, and so just to tread water, you 167 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 1: outperform the market by a lot. This thing was in 168 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 1: the top twenty of flows and it spawned a bunch 169 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 1: of little sequels. Calf bull bull is half as a 170 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: small cap version of cows, right, that's right, So what's 171 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 1: bull bull is the cash cows? But growth like a 172 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: growth version of the cash cow. Interesting, so you can 173 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 1: find growth and cash flow yep, and the cow is 174 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: the emerging market cash cow. So this, this firm Pacer 175 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,199 Speaker 1: locked in on is hit. And every time you have 176 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: an indie blockbuster, they launched the sequels just like movies 177 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: A sudden, it's your franchise Rocky seven. Yeah, like this 178 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: is it. So it's interesting to see how this will 179 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: keep up. But overall I am watching fundamentally driven e 180 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 1: t F s. I think they're gonna have actor Now. 181 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 1: By the way, is it is fundamental as a factor. 182 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: You could like throw that in with momentum and value 183 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,679 Speaker 1: and both audmental factors are built on fundamentals. So but 184 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 1: like momentum is not really fundamentals. Yeah, I mean, oh yeah, 185 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: you're right, that's just on price movement alright, value though, 186 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 1: is priced to earning different ways to define it. I 187 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 1: would say that factors are within the larger world of 188 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:43,839 Speaker 1: fundamental ETFs. Factors are a slice of that big tent, James. 189 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 1: So I'm going to go to one that I talked 190 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:50,199 Speaker 1: about every time I'm on trillions. I feel like, but 191 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 1: this is warranted, for there's a lot of news around GBTC, 192 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: which is the Great Scale Bitcoin truss Um. So this 193 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,079 Speaker 1: thing closed at a record discount. In your day, we 194 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 1: see a trade and a fifty percent discount, which basically 195 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 1: means the price of the shares of this trust are 196 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: trading at a fifty percent discount to the underlying value 197 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: of the bitcoin it holds. So yeah, So basically, if 198 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: bitcoins at twenty, this thing is trading at ten. Yeah, roughly, 199 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: So you basically get a gigantic hair cut off the 200 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 1: price of bitcoin if you're investing in this. But but 201 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: right now, there's no way to arbitrage that difference, right, 202 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 1: But the benefit is if you buy this now, like 203 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 1: you said, we'll use the twenty thousand number you used. 204 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: If you go from ten to twenty, A lot of 205 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 1: people think fifty percent discount. I'm going to get a 206 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:32,839 Speaker 1: fifty percent return, but that's a hundred percent return, ten thousand, 207 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: hundred percent returns. So this is big money and we're 208 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 1: seeing that come out in lawsuits. So part of what's 209 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: happening is Grayscale wants to convert this to an ETF. 210 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: They've been died by the SEC, as we've covered here 211 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:45,679 Speaker 1: many times. They have now sued the SEC after the 212 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 1: last denial. We're expecting oral arguments. There's written arguments going 213 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: on right now. Oral arguments like actual core cases going 214 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 1: to happen in February and March. We'll get a decision, 215 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 1: likely before likely at some point in in the second quarter, 216 00:10:57,640 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: possibly in the third quarter. Then we can see a 217 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 1: PELS but who knows. We're gonna be watching that very closely. 218 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 1: The other thing is what happens when you sue the SEC. 219 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: What kind of likelihood of success do you have? YEA. 220 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 1: So we actually have litigation analysts here in Bloomberg Intelligence 221 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 1: who are covering this from the litigation standpoint, and you'll 222 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 1: see if you go on Twitter or social media, you'll 223 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:18,439 Speaker 1: see people talk about this like this is a frivolous 224 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: lawsuit to sue the SEC a regulator but there's a 225 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:22,959 Speaker 1: process set up for this. It's called an AP a 226 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 1: procedural act. Basically you're supposed to treat like situations alike. 227 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 1: Elliot Stein is our litigation analyst, and he gives them 228 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,839 Speaker 1: an odds around probably closer to thirty than fifty in that. 229 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 1: But it's not a frivolous situation. On the gp GBPC lawsuit, 230 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:41,079 Speaker 1: I mean, the option is you can. You can it 231 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 1: would be buying GBDC in some way, right, I mean, 232 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: there's this some way you can short bitcoined by GBDC, 233 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 1: stuff like that. People have been doing that for a 234 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 1: long time. It has not worked out in the last 235 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: four years. Um, So that not only is that lawsuit 236 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 1: going on, now we have an investor for Tree Capital, 237 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 1: which is an activist they run hedge funds or an 238 00:11:56,280 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 1: activist investor special situation, and now they've sued grace Al 239 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 1: to get more information. So there's so many different things 240 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 1: happened lawsuit. And then we just had a letter from 241 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: Michael Snison I might be pronounced his last name wrong. 242 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 1: I'm sorry. He's the he's the CEO of Gray Scale 243 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 1: and he basically says, if we failed to convert this 244 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 1: to an e t F. We're going to do a 245 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:16,959 Speaker 1: tender offering of the shares Virtue wants to owe them 246 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 1: to open redemption program. I mean, there are so many things. 247 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:20,959 Speaker 1: We could do a whole show on this. There's a 248 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 1: whole so it's it's gonna be a lot happening in 249 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 1: this product. Yeah. No, GBTC is endlessly FAST's funny. It's 250 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 1: not even an ETF, but it's like, yeah, but it 251 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: attracted money because it seemed like an e t F 252 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: too many people and it was just the convenient way 253 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:40,439 Speaker 1: to get exposure. That said. What I'm also watching with 254 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 1: crypto is how many filings are we going to see? 255 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:47,839 Speaker 1: Did the SPF drama scare away the market? But we've 256 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 1: seen already one filing here in the US to actually 257 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,719 Speaker 1: for crypto products that are going to come out, And 258 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: in Hong Kong they launched their first two and they've 259 00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 1: gotten decent money. So there's been a couple rays of 260 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: light that this is going to carry on after SPF 261 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 1: and the thrill of watching him go to jail is gone. 262 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 1: What do you got next? Deeric? One of the ones 263 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:12,200 Speaker 1: I'm watching next year is s t r V, which 264 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: a lot of people don't know, but it's the Strive 265 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:17,839 Speaker 1: five ETF. And this is part of a theme that 266 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 1: I've been writing about, which is the cultural wars bleeding 267 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: into the E t F world. Strive basically came out 268 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: and said, you know, basically in a reaction to black Rock, Look, 269 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: we're going to track the market like Beta, just like 270 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 1: a regular index fune. We're gonna track all different areas 271 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 1: of the market like black Rock does, except we're just 272 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:37,439 Speaker 1: going to vote for companies to make profits. We're not 273 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 1: gonna do anything that's E s G. That's what I 274 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 1: guess the name comes from, like, we want with them 275 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 1: to strive for excellence, not for these E s G programs. 276 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 1: So for the anti e s G crab, it's supposed 277 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,839 Speaker 1: to appeal to them. They have some big backers. This 278 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 1: thing already has a decent amount of assets. The company 279 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:55,439 Speaker 1: itself has half a billion in assets. Pretty good start. 280 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: This is also just interesting in that black Rock and 281 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 1: Vanguard have started to look at programs where they're going 282 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,439 Speaker 1: to let their own their investors have a say and 283 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 1: how their shares are voted. Be interesting to see if 284 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 1: that sort of steal some of the thunder of this 285 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 1: idea because if black Rock and Vanguard are going to 286 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 1: sort of just turn over the voting, do you need 287 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: to Strive. Um, I'm sure Strive would make a case 288 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 1: while they're still important. But that is a big thing 289 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: that this is a big issue because black Rock and 290 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 1: Vanguard owns so much of the stock market and how 291 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: they vote has a powerful position, and so this decentralization 292 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 1: of that voting is going to be interesting. Strives in 293 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 1: here basically saying we'll do it this one way, and 294 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: then E s G concerns Are they legit? Are they not? 295 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 1: So there's this whole area of the E t F 296 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 1: world that sort of become a political football, and so 297 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 1: it would be interesting to see if any big real 298 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 1: money moves over there or if this just becomes something 299 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 1: that we spend ten percent of our time talking about 300 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 1: but makes up like point five percent of the assets um, 301 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,040 Speaker 1: which is generally what E s G is like. And 302 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: also interesting to launch with Drill, the first E t 303 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 1: F that they had, and then follow up with something 304 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: that's much more mainstream. So be curious to see where 305 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: they go. Okay, James, next, Yeah, so I'm gonna go 306 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 1: with one that a lot of people probably aren't talking 307 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 1: about or don't even know of. It's gonna be the 308 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 1: Matthews China Active E t F m H and they 309 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: are just a hard traditional active manager. They tend to 310 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 1: be relatively concentrated in their picks. They have a bunch 311 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: of mutual funds. So m c h f X is 312 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 1: the mutual fund that this is basically UM a clone of, 313 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 1: and they put in the E t F rapper. But 314 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 1: why I'm watching it has to do with a similar 315 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: thing of what we talked about vanguards UH fund structure. 316 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: M c h f X pays out massive capital gains 317 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: every year because they're very active. The mutual fund structure 318 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 1: is not great because you often end up having to 319 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: pay capital gains. The E t F structure is efficient 320 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 1: because you can wash those gains out. So this thing 321 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 1: launched in April of last year, I believe UM, and 322 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 1: it we're watching see one if it's gonna have any 323 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: capital gains this year, which it doesn't look like it's 324 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 1: going to. But also it's gonna have a full year 325 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: the following year. So this could be literally the poster 326 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: child for why you should have an E T F rapper, 327 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: especially for something side by side, like, this is why 328 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 1: you want this one and not the other one exactly. 329 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 1: I mean in a taxed advantage account, capital gains really 330 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: don't make that much of a difference. But if you're 331 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 1: in a taxable account, and E t F can really 332 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: be a vastly more efficient vehicle than a mutual fund. Okay, Athanasios, 333 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 1: what do you got? Yeah? So on the team, you know, 334 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: we all follow basketball ericsivic basketball fans. So one theme 335 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: we had for next year was just sort of back 336 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 1: to basics, right, and you know one was you know, 337 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: half court shots and Ali you sent a lot of 338 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: like fanfare. I think we're gonna go back to basics, 339 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: more focused on fundamentals, focused on quality companies. So the 340 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 1: one I'm picking is the dimensional US High Profitability Company, 341 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 1: do you e t F? Which is d u HP. 342 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 1: Now this is gonna sound crazy, but you know, member 343 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 1: companies that would like make stuff and make money Like 344 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 1: I like these companies, and this is what this focus 345 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,880 Speaker 1: is on, Like companies that make stuff and are highly 346 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 1: profitable and have good cash flow. Uh, and it's a 347 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: it's been a really good performers. This is outrageous. Yeah, 348 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: it sounds people would imagine being like, Okay, yeah, let's 349 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 1: just pick companies that have money and make stuff, and 350 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 1: so I probably put this onto like a quality factor. 351 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 1: So it's just trying to pick out these So when 352 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 1: you look at it at the surface, you're like, no, 353 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 1: this is just the S and P five, But it 354 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: only hast overlap with the index. It's twenty two basis points. 355 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: D f A is really specialized in this, so I 356 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: think they found a really good spot where it's just 357 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 1: different enough. But it's got a lot of names in 358 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:46,120 Speaker 1: there that I think people will recognize, but they really 359 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 1: seem to excel in their overweights and underweights. But I 360 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: think this really big theme for next year is just 361 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 1: going to be focused, go back to fundamentals, just focus 362 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,440 Speaker 1: on high quality companies. Yeah, by the way, that is 363 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 1: a companies that have money and make stuff. E t 364 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 1: breaking news, breaking news. So Eric, how do you follow 365 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:07,959 Speaker 1: that up? Yeah, I mean I have one that's similar 366 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 1: to that, Athanasios, And that's the advantis E t F 367 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: Really all of their E t F. So I'm watching 368 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,439 Speaker 1: this company. A lot of people don't know who they are, 369 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:19,480 Speaker 1: but they're an active manager and the main person used 370 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 1: to work at d f A. So I believe they've 371 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:24,879 Speaker 1: come out and said, hey, we're like d f avorite, 372 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 1: we're cheaper and it's definitely worked. Um people should be 373 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 1: looking at. So the one I really pointed out was 374 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 1: a vu V, which is the small cap value e 375 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 1: t F. This is an interesting product because in the 376 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 1: small cap value category there are e t s from 377 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 1: black Rock and Vanguard multiple but this e t F 378 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 1: a v u V took in four times more flows 379 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 1: than any of the other ones. That's hard to believe. 380 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 1: You rarely see a category with Vanguard and black Rock 381 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: where someone else wins, and you look into this, their 382 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: whole product line is taken in flows in like one month, 383 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 1: one year, year to date, like just Green look like 384 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,399 Speaker 1: ARC maybe three years ago. And the reason these are 385 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 1: interesting is a that they do focus on fundamentals, which 386 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 1: is back in vogue, and be their low cost uh 387 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 1: these are funds that are priced that the one I 388 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 1: just mentioned was basis points. Their U S fund is 389 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 1: fifteen UH e M is thirty three, and they're all 390 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 1: within that range. So this is what I would call, 391 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 1: you know, I frequently say dirt cheap or shiny objects 392 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: or where most of the flows go. This would be 393 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 1: dirt cheap. It happens to be active, So active I 394 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 1: think can find a home either getting very active or 395 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: maybe lowering their fee and being much more moderately priced 396 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 1: and advantas I feel has has shown that. And this 397 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:43,679 Speaker 1: company UM again it's probably one of the fastest growing 398 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 1: on a percentage basis. But these kind of winds in 399 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: these categories like beating black Rock and Vanguard is no 400 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 1: easy feat. So uh, this is um an E T 401 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: F Small Cat Value. I also just wonder is that 402 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: gonna rain for a while and you're in the two 403 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,959 Speaker 1: thousands Small Cat Value. You had a great run when 404 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,720 Speaker 1: the SMP was flat, and I wonder if Small Cat 405 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,200 Speaker 1: Value will have that decade long run again. I don't know, 406 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 1: we'll see. That's another reason I pick that specific. One 407 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,680 Speaker 1: of the event is lineup. Okay, interesting, Athanasia, what do 408 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 1: you got for us? Okay? One word? Bonds? So the 409 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:22,399 Speaker 1: year of the bond, right, so this is a rough year, kidding, 410 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 1: bonds are great. Um This is where I think most 411 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 1: you know, it's it's fun to talk about a lot 412 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:29,920 Speaker 1: of the other products have been coming up, but I 413 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 1: think where there's a lot of room for innovation isn't 414 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: bond ETFs. I think they've already they proved themselves that 415 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,639 Speaker 1: last year, what year is this? Now? What year? This 416 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 1: like three years running? Like hear me out bonds? So 417 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 1: you ten is the ticker. It's got a pretty generic name, 418 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 1: just the US Treasury Tenure nod TF. But well, I 419 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 1: this one, this one's a single bond ETF. So I 420 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 1: think we saw the single stock ETFs come out this 421 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 1: year where I think this makes more senses with single bonds, 422 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,400 Speaker 1: so it's it's basically like you're holding a ten year bond. 423 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 1: So what I like about this this issue where and 424 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 1: the products they come out with they're very precise, and 425 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 1: they're focusing on the most liquid parts of the of 426 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 1: the bond market. So this is just treasuries that tend 427 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 1: to be liquid anyways. But I think this is gonna 428 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: open the door for a lot of innovation next year 429 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,880 Speaker 1: on target on slicing up the bond market, having more precision, 430 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,400 Speaker 1: more efficientially, more liquidity. Uh So that's something that I'm 431 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 1: definitely keeping an eye on for next year. We'll see 432 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: if you try and sneak this one past this next 433 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: year again too, making making a note to self here, 434 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 1: what I actually wanted to use another one from this 435 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:40,440 Speaker 1: same company, FM Acceleration, You too, um so at Eighthan 436 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 1: claimed it for his twenty three one of the ts, 437 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 1: so I couldn't use it, But I'm also fascinated to 438 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:46,880 Speaker 1: watch these. They're launching a whole suite of these things 439 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 1: that only invest in on the run treasury securities, so 440 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 1: it's going to be interesting to see how many how 441 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 1: advisors take to this. And they're they're basically trading vehicles 442 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,640 Speaker 1: for for treasury e t s, which sounds like it's 443 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 1: not needed, but it really is niche because of the 444 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,040 Speaker 1: way that on the run treasuries trade more than um 445 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: the basket of treasuries that aren't necessarily just the on 446 00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 1: the run versions, Eric, what else you go for us? Yeah, 447 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 1: I have one from fixed income. I can do a 448 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: little bonds. UM. The one I am looking at is 449 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,120 Speaker 1: the bond blocks triple C rated high yield corporate bond 450 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 1: e TF, which interesting x C c c UM for 451 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: triple C obviously, um, this is interesting because uh, you know, 452 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: junk bond ETFs first of all had always been like 453 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 1: the canary in the coal mine for like liquidity mismatch concerns, 454 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,399 Speaker 1: and so here comes one that goes really far in 455 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 1: terms of uh poorly rated junk. Right, So triple C 456 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 1: would be like bad, right, And this has almost allocated 457 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 1: to it. For context, the next E t F with 458 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 1: the most triple C is thirty, so it's triple the 459 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,680 Speaker 1: biggest one to the point, and H, Y, G and 460 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,639 Speaker 1: J and K only have about nine two triple C. 461 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 1: So this really is interesting in a couple of ways. A, 462 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 1: this thing is gonna yield a lot, and so will 463 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 1: people be attracted to that yield? At some point you're 464 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 1: going to get people looking at that indicated yield. It's 465 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: going to be pretty high, easily double digits, I'm guessing. Then. 466 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 1: The other question is junk bond ETFs have survived many 467 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 1: tests for sure, and I've been a defender of them. 468 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 1: They work fine, they see some discounts, but they trade 469 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,239 Speaker 1: on and largely it's because the bonds themselves haven't been 470 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 1: updated to the N A V s a little stale. 471 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: But we haven't seen defaults. Like if we have a 472 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 1: wave of defaults, this thing could could have some issues. Right, 473 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,680 Speaker 1: If some of these junk companies here with these junk 474 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 1: bonds have default problems, this could have some structural issues. 475 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:41,480 Speaker 1: I hope it doesn't, but it's one to watch Goodwood 476 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:45,680 Speaker 1: if they're okay, okay, James. Next, Yeah, So I'm gonna 477 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,359 Speaker 1: go with T s l Q, which is one of it. 478 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,640 Speaker 1: We just talked about single single bond ETFs. Now I'm 479 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 1: gonna talk about single single stock and it's happen with Yeah. 480 00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 1: I mean, this thing is. I mean it has sixty 481 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 1: five million dollars an assis. It trades more than that 482 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 1: perfect year for this two So you know though, Yeah, 483 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 1: T s l Q is. It's an inverse tesla et 484 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 1: F It's the it was. It was one of the 485 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,639 Speaker 1: first ones launched that too. It's an e t F. 486 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: It's kind of an oxy moron to call on et 487 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: F and invest in a single equity. Some are like 488 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,360 Speaker 1: one point to five levered long summer one to two 489 00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 1: leverage short. There's about twenty five of them on the 490 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 1: on the exchange right now. Um, there's been like eighty 491 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: to nine file. There's a couple now that are filing 492 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 1: that are basically uh leverage versions of e t f s. 493 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,959 Speaker 1: But I'm focused on the single security ones we were 494 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 1: I was very bullish on this personally when we were 495 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 1: talking if we talked about in Q one of twenty 496 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 1: two Q two of twenty two. But basically the SEC 497 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 1: we thought these were going to come out, but the 498 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,119 Speaker 1: SEC has vastly limited the amount of leverage that you 499 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:43,639 Speaker 1: can use. You can get way more leverage in these 500 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,199 Speaker 1: single security e t s in Europe than you can 501 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: here in the States, and I think traders just aren't 502 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:50,879 Speaker 1: going to be that attractive. What the what do they 503 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 1: happen to that? So it depends, it depends on the 504 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 1: volatility of the underlying stock that you're investing in. So 505 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,680 Speaker 1: if you ever really volatile stock, you're not gonna go 506 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,320 Speaker 1: beyond one x inverse. Same so t SLQ you can 507 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 1: only get one one x inverse. There's also another one 508 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,119 Speaker 1: that has some decent assets is the the the Apple 509 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 1: inverse from direction A A p D, So that is 510 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,360 Speaker 1: twenty million assets, but it doesn't trade as nearly as much, 511 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,879 Speaker 1: and everything else like really doesn't trade much at all, 512 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:16,920 Speaker 1: has very minimal assets. We think they could be used 513 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,399 Speaker 1: maybe around earnings time, but we just they're just not 514 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: gaining a lot of traction, partially because they don't have 515 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 1: that extra leverage. And also I mean I think I 516 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 1: think a lot of people thought these were gonna be 517 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,639 Speaker 1: very successful, like I said, Like I said, so did 518 00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 1: I UM, and it's just not turning out to be. 519 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:31,639 Speaker 1: So I'll be watching this whole space to see how 520 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 1: many of them close or how many of them try 521 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,399 Speaker 1: to launch and then ultimately closed within a short time period. 522 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,960 Speaker 1: I will say, test test loa Q is unbelievable. I 523 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 1: mean it's trading now regularly over a hundred million dollars 524 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 1: a day. That's like big boy level, and it's got 525 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 1: it's up eighty eight percent in the past three months. 526 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,159 Speaker 1: I mean that's gonna You're gonna find some buyers with 527 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,360 Speaker 1: that kind of performance, perfect perfect, perfect timing. Yeah, yeah, 528 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 1: this is um. This is a legit hit and this 529 00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 1: will keep people coming and trying as long as you 530 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,160 Speaker 1: have one or two of these. But to James's point, 531 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 1: I think they're gonna limit it to really high profile, 532 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 1: controversial stocks and not just blanket every stock with a 533 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,320 Speaker 1: inverse and leverage version because who really needs to change 534 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,879 Speaker 1: like one point five x fisor I mean, who do 535 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 1: we really need that? What do you got for us? Okay, 536 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 1: K pop, which is the well this is I got 537 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:29,160 Speaker 1: bad news for you. Because I think this is gonna 538 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:33,440 Speaker 1: close and well, it's not K pop per se. I 539 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: think this is indicative of how crazy and niche some 540 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,479 Speaker 1: of the launches have gotten over the last couple of years. Right. 541 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,439 Speaker 1: It was the byproduct of this really strong bull market. 542 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: Launches were coming rapid place. Yeah, and they were getting 543 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 1: really niche. It's not against K pop. I think it's 544 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,119 Speaker 1: just gonna be indicative of a theme that we are 545 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 1: tracking for next year, and that's a lot more closures, 546 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:00,680 Speaker 1: and I think that these ones are going to be 547 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,400 Speaker 1: at higher risk, not a lot of the other ones 548 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 1: for closures, because they're going to be they're smaller, they're 549 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,560 Speaker 1: more niche and focused. They're not gonna be able to 550 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 1: appeal to like a bigger investor base. So, you know, 551 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 1: any type of thematic or niche play like this, it's 552 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:17,640 Speaker 1: just been tough. A lot of them have been underwater. 553 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,160 Speaker 1: And then, like Eric had mentioned, one of our themes 554 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,119 Speaker 1: just you know, focus on fundamentals. Next year, I think 555 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 1: there's gonna be a purging of some of these strategies. 556 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,879 Speaker 1: So K pop is just one I'm watching to unfortunately 557 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,240 Speaker 1: be added to the graveyard for next year. He wanted 558 00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,920 Speaker 1: to do this headline, k pop is gonna k flop, 559 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,960 Speaker 1: That's why. Just but it was Catchy's New York post stuff. 560 00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 1: You know, we could do a TikTok off of that. 561 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:43,359 Speaker 1: We had the K pop guy on, and these are 562 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 1: real people with you know, thoughts, hopes and dreams, and 563 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:49,120 Speaker 1: so I don't want to totally like crap on people's ideas. 564 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,280 Speaker 1: But this is pretty out there and it's seventy basis 565 00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,399 Speaker 1: points and it's launched into a really rough market. I 566 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,960 Speaker 1: agree with Tom. It's just, you know, timing might have 567 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:09,120 Speaker 1: helped this thing, but the timing was not there. Announcers, 568 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 1: you got another one I do. And it's maybe even 569 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 1: like the whole reason we're here, right, And the ETF 570 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,040 Speaker 1: has always been there, but we never realized that. And 571 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 1: it's just, well, how do we track the growth of 572 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:26,040 Speaker 1: the E t F industry? Right? There's podcasts and shows 573 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:30,119 Speaker 1: and now there's flows are still really strong, there's product 574 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 1: that's coming, there's conversions. Yeah, you're you're you're totally trying 575 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 1: to blow our mind for next year. So who you know? 576 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,120 Speaker 1: And it's this et F We sort of talk about 577 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 1: it all. We know who who the big players are, 578 00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 1: all the issuers, the asset managers. But there's a whole 579 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:54,040 Speaker 1: ecosystem behind that, right, there's market makers, index providers, exchanges administrators. 580 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,720 Speaker 1: They're all benefiting from it. You're killing me, You're you're 581 00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 1: killing me. What are you talking about? So the ticker 582 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 1: is k C, which is the spider SMP Capital Markets 583 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 1: e t F. Now, there used to be an e 584 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 1: t F that tracked It was called the ETF Industry 585 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:13,320 Speaker 1: e t F by Torosso, but they closed it unfortunately. 586 00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 1: I remember I was looking in the past and it's 587 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 1: not well, it's not marketed like that. It's almost identical 588 00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 1: to the performance of the Tarrosto product. So this is 589 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,920 Speaker 1: sort of a backdoorway into play the growth of the industry, 590 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:30,720 Speaker 1: and you're getting exposure. It's a lot of the other 591 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 1: firms that maybe you don't necessarily think about when everyone 592 00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,480 Speaker 1: is moving over and converting into E t S. Thet 593 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,760 Speaker 1: F industry is like the media industry. They love talking 594 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 1: about themselves. Oh yeah, Eric and Jack Bogel, I guess so, 595 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 1: I mean, well, this is an e t F podcast. 596 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 1: Should we talk about you know, eighties metal bands, I'm 597 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,960 Speaker 1: fine with it, Oh yeah, and nineties basketball, which I 598 00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 1: know you're also fine with Yeah, let's talk. Let's talk, 599 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 1: Michael Jordan, come on, um, good good. Also, you basically 600 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 1: made Eric fall silent. The other thing is ETFs are 601 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 1: going to trade about fifty trillion dollars with the shares 602 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 1: this year, and this has a lot of the firms 603 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 1: that do the market making and exchanges and so ETFs 604 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 1: may not make as much money as mutual funds and 605 00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 1: expense ratio, but they trade a ton and that's a 606 00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:21,600 Speaker 1: revenue generator for You're gonna need to change the name 607 00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 1: of the podcast to tens of trillions, not just trillions. 608 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:26,480 Speaker 1: The beauty of trillions is that the accounts for tens 609 00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:29,920 Speaker 1: of trillions. Yeah, and yeah, and you you were good. Yeah, well, 610 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,960 Speaker 1: no cruise control. Rebecca sin And who does our Asian research, 611 00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 1: we're trying to she's gonna start a podcast and we 612 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 1: were thinking of what's the name, and I was like, 613 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:42,520 Speaker 1: you should probably go to the next step with gazillions. Eric, 614 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,440 Speaker 1: you got another. Yeah, this one is really This one 615 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,720 Speaker 1: is a very small ETF and I'm not sure to 616 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 1: even last, but the top gun ETF. Wait, what's the 617 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 1: ticker first t g n Okay, when did it launch? 618 00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 1: Like two months ago. It's called the A X S. 619 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 1: Brendan Woods Top Gun Index CTF. And look, besides the 620 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,240 Speaker 1: whole top gun reference, which is you know, ets like 621 00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 1: to have fun for sure, what I what's interesting is 622 00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 1: it's only twenty seven stocks are I'll give you some example. 623 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 1: MasterCard is in it, Bate and Switch, United Health, and 624 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 1: a lot of stuff I don't recognize. There's somefing top 625 00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 1: gun be well, best in category exactly. This is a 626 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,800 Speaker 1: big thing I think. I think you're going to see 627 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,000 Speaker 1: a future where active managers come in with their best ideas. 628 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 1: They're not going to launch, you know, three hundred stocks 629 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 1: and moves a lot like okay, so they're playing off 630 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,800 Speaker 1: Tom Scarrett saying that you're the best of the best. Yeah, 631 00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,600 Speaker 1: the best of the best exactly of you know, according 632 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,360 Speaker 1: to this manager. Think about it. If you have a 633 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 1: cheap beta core like you use Vanguard and black Rock 634 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 1: for like your vast majority of your core portfolio, and 635 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 1: he'd spend three basis points on it, you know, you 636 00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:57,960 Speaker 1: want something very convicted. Again, this is a little bit 637 00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:01,600 Speaker 1: of the cathy would affect highly concentrated, but that's what 638 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 1: people want because people now have of their portfolio available 639 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,520 Speaker 1: for hot sauce. How much is this fund? How much 640 00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 1: the expense ratio? Let me look, because it's active, right 641 00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 1: basis points that is a little price, even Cathy would 642 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 1: The point of this is, I think we're going to 643 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 1: see more of this. We're going to see even bigger 644 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,960 Speaker 1: managers come out with more concentrated active portfolios. And the 645 00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:28,000 Speaker 1: reason for that again is because it can compliment jee 646 00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,200 Speaker 1: Beta and not competing with it. Is there a mutual 647 00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,640 Speaker 1: fund based on this or is this an offshoot of 648 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:35,800 Speaker 1: a mutual fund or not? It's a totally brand new 649 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:41,600 Speaker 1: totally what is the sequel called Maverick going to invest in? 650 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 1: Maverick is going to hold the children, the children? Yeah, 651 00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:47,640 Speaker 1: I don't know. It's gonna help the children, and the 652 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:49,880 Speaker 1: children will save him and everybody will have their art 653 00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,000 Speaker 1: and there's gonna be a portion there that'll that will 654 00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:57,160 Speaker 1: be enough fund you. But you got you gotta wait years. Yeah, 655 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:02,560 Speaker 1: in the middle of a pandemic again, right, Yeah, I 656 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:07,719 Speaker 1: like that. You were your aviators for that. He's got 657 00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:12,280 Speaker 1: his leather bomber jackets. That's right. I am dangerous. No, no, 658 00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 1: but I agree on the concentration. Um, I think it's 659 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 1: you know, top gun. But you probably see top ideas yep, yes, 660 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:21,600 Speaker 1: coming out next year. So I like it. That's that's 661 00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 1: a great pick. Who comes up with the ticker up? 662 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,440 Speaker 1: Who proposes tickers? Is that the marketing side or is 663 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 1: it the fun manager? But it could be anybody, could 664 00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,640 Speaker 1: be anybody. Um, we were just talking about that a 665 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,640 Speaker 1: little bit like t g N a little underwhelming. I 666 00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 1: think you could have done better with this ticker gun 667 00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 1: No mav ice are there four letter yes r r K. Yeah. 668 00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:46,120 Speaker 1: This guy might might not have wanted to be so, 669 00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:48,680 Speaker 1: I mean old than why would he name a top gun? 670 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 1: But I don't know anyway, Um he chose it, but 671 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 1: like approximately what his vintage is? We know how old 672 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:58,120 Speaker 1: he is? Last one? Yeah, so the last one I'm 673 00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,200 Speaker 1: going to tell about his v x U S, which 674 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 1: is kind of boring. It's just the global stock market 675 00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 1: without the us UM. Yeah, yeah, it isn't believe it, 676 00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,040 Speaker 1: I believe it or not. Some people might want to 677 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,319 Speaker 1: invest not in the us UM. So this thing, it's 678 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,719 Speaker 1: a it's a massive fundage from Vanguard. But why it 679 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,719 Speaker 1: draws so much interest from me is because this thing 680 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,399 Speaker 1: has seen three days of outflows in its history since 681 00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,560 Speaker 1: it launched in three days of outflows. That's it, No 682 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:25,279 Speaker 1: nothing else. Part of the reason is because, as most 683 00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,880 Speaker 1: people likely know, the US market has trounced the international 684 00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,360 Speaker 1: market over the last decade um. But if that starts 685 00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,440 Speaker 1: to change, we might see some outflows here. So I'm 686 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,440 Speaker 1: gonna be watching for that because essentially, if you have 687 00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,160 Speaker 1: like a set allocation, you want to have a certain 688 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,640 Speaker 1: percentage to to your domestic stocks. If you're in the US, 689 00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,880 Speaker 1: you want have a certain percentage international. As US continually 690 00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:47,080 Speaker 1: outperforms the international, you're gonna sell the US and buy international. 691 00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:50,239 Speaker 1: So we that's my theory on why this thing consistently 692 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 1: sees inflows day in and day out and doesn't see 693 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 1: a single day of outflow. Um. So I'm gonna be 694 00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,560 Speaker 1: watching basically to see, uh if if we can see 695 00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,680 Speaker 1: international stocks keep up. They've actually if you look in 696 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:05,680 Speaker 1: two they kept pace roughly with with domestic stocks. So 697 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,640 Speaker 1: if we see a outperformance of international stocks, I'll be 698 00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,200 Speaker 1: watching to see if this things these outflows. Okay, there 699 00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:14,200 Speaker 1: are a couple of Bloomberg intelligence analysts who couldn't join 700 00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:18,240 Speaker 1: our recording, Henry Jim and Europe and Rebecca's in in Asia, 701 00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:22,919 Speaker 1: But we do want to go through some of their picks. Athanasius, 702 00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:27,040 Speaker 1: you wanna kick us off with with some of Henry's Uh, sure, 703 00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 1: so I wanna. Eric doesn't like acronyms, so just no, 704 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:32,760 Speaker 1: all of them has you sits in the name already, 705 00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:36,000 Speaker 1: so I won't repeat it every time. I'm just trying 706 00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:40,120 Speaker 1: to keep the audience and falling asleep European regulatory acronyms. 707 00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:41,759 Speaker 1: I mean, if you're listening right now, do you want 708 00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:46,399 Speaker 1: him to just like sort of spellt s about those off? Okay, 709 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,759 Speaker 1: go ahead for another good but sure, it's a lot 710 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:52,560 Speaker 1: of the similar themes that we've seen in the US, 711 00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:55,600 Speaker 1: so like dividends, you know, people want income. It's actually 712 00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,239 Speaker 1: probably a bigger focus in Europe. So one of his 713 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,560 Speaker 1: picks was the smp US David and E t F 714 00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:03,760 Speaker 1: U D v D, which is one of the tickers. 715 00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,600 Speaker 1: And then inflation. You know, the U S isn't the 716 00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:09,520 Speaker 1: only place in inflation, it's it's you know that's going 717 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:12,359 Speaker 1: up in Europe too. There's some interesting etf that are 718 00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:16,239 Speaker 1: tracking European inflation expectations. This one's by Licks or the 719 00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:20,080 Speaker 1: Licks or your year two tenure inflation Expectations et f 720 00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:23,400 Speaker 1: I NFL is a ticker there and uh, Henry is 721 00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:27,240 Speaker 1: pretty bullish on active ets. They haven't really penetrated that market, 722 00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,279 Speaker 1: uh as much as they have here. So he's looking 723 00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:33,360 Speaker 1: at some by JP Morgan, who I think now is 724 00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:36,920 Speaker 1: the largest active shop in the US. They've got a 725 00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 1: pretty big or they're trying to increase that of fall 726 00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,560 Speaker 1: hold in Europe. So he's got one j R e U, 727 00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:46,400 Speaker 1: which is a JP Morgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity 728 00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,200 Speaker 1: e s G. Oh my god, e t F. That 729 00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:53,640 Speaker 1: is a long name. Uh, did I get you a 730 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 1: niner in there? And James, you got one more for 731 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,560 Speaker 1: us from from Henry. Yeah, it's just r M a U. 732 00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:02,640 Speaker 1: It's a gold et F. It's listed on the London 733 00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:06,160 Speaker 1: Stock Exchange. Henry is interested in looking at precious metals 734 00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,160 Speaker 1: ets and specifically gold because he's watching there was a 735 00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,239 Speaker 1: lot of bitcoin and crypto et f s that launched 736 00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:13,560 Speaker 1: in Europe and people have been burned pretty badly. There 737 00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,640 Speaker 1: was actually an f t T or FTX token e 738 00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:18,320 Speaker 1: t F in Europe. There's a few of them that 739 00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:20,160 Speaker 1: have closed. There's been a few things that have been 740 00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,279 Speaker 1: hit really hard. So he thinks people are going to 741 00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:27,759 Speaker 1: go back to the tangible tangible. Yeah, exactly. Uh and 742 00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:32,160 Speaker 1: and Eric, you've got some from Rebecca uh and from Asia. Yeah. Um, 743 00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:36,080 Speaker 1: she's really watching the tech, the tech scene over in 744 00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:38,719 Speaker 1: Hong Kong and China. I mean some of these are 745 00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:43,520 Speaker 1: like the c SAW three oh three three. The tickers 746 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 1: in Asia are like so they're just numbers basically, but 747 00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:49,960 Speaker 1: generally speaking, she's looking at tech because you know, China 748 00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:51,840 Speaker 1: has been beat up in the tech sector in particular. 749 00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:54,719 Speaker 1: So she's watching some tech ETFs over there. So looking 750 00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,719 Speaker 1: at the crypto et FUM. She was covering the Hong 751 00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,560 Speaker 1: Kong cover the first ether and bitcoin ETFs, so she's 752 00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:02,719 Speaker 1: following them. They already have I believe somewhere in the 753 00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,719 Speaker 1: neighborhood eighty million right off the bat. It's really good. 754 00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:07,800 Speaker 1: Eighty million over there is like that would be like 755 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,800 Speaker 1: if it was a billion dollars in the US in 756 00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:12,040 Speaker 1: terms of how big that et F market is versus ours. 757 00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,520 Speaker 1: She also like semi conductor. She's looking at a semi 758 00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:18,680 Speaker 1: conductor et F. The Samsung Bloomberg Global Semiconductor three one 759 00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,600 Speaker 1: three two h K is the ticker UM. This track 760 00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,920 Speaker 1: twenty companies. Her point is that semi is obviously used 761 00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:29,080 Speaker 1: in industrial shows, but also electric vehicles, so they can 762 00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:32,080 Speaker 1: be an e V play as well. And then our 763 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:38,480 Speaker 1: final one, she's looking at Indonesia and Thailand, so if 764 00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,040 Speaker 1: you look at Southeast Asia, she likes those two countries, 765 00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,520 Speaker 1: or at least thinks good things may happen there. And 766 00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:46,840 Speaker 1: so she's looking at the premier Dow Jones Emerging a 767 00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:51,040 Speaker 1: can Titans one Dred which cut two tracks the top 768 00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:56,560 Speaker 1: one hundred companies in Indonesia, Malaysia, it's in Vietnam. Interest. Yeah, 769 00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,719 Speaker 1: so that's like, um, you know again, sort of like 770 00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:03,000 Speaker 1: a cont and traded Southeast Asia et F. Given that 771 00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,360 Speaker 1: there's again a lot of Asia is really just like 772 00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:07,680 Speaker 1: can we please rebound because they've been beat up even 773 00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,880 Speaker 1: worse than us. And that's sort of I think the 774 00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:13,920 Speaker 1: thread through a lot of her her t s James 775 00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,360 Speaker 1: Athanasios Scarlett, thanks for joining us on Trillions. Thanks for 776 00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:19,719 Speaker 1: having me back. I was happy to be here, was 777 00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:22,520 Speaker 1: a lot of fun. Happy New Year, Happy New Year. 778 00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,719 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Trillions. Until next time. You can 779 00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:34,080 Speaker 1: find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcast, Spotify, 780 00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:36,560 Speaker 1: and wherever else you like to listen. We'd love to 781 00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,719 Speaker 1: hear from you. We're on Twitter. I'm at Joel Weaper Show. 782 00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:43,960 Speaker 1: He's at Eric Faltinas. This episode of Trillions was produced 783 00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:45,800 Speaker 1: by Magnus Hindrances but