1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Runt You by Bank of America Mary Lynch with virtual reality, 2 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:09,719 Speaker 1: virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in a transforming world 3 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: VI of a mL dot Com slash VR, Mary Lynch, 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated. Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg 5 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we 6 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 1: bring you insight from the best of economics, finance, investment, 7 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:42,160 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 8 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Gabriela 9 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 1: Santos with US with JP Morgan Asset Management. She would 10 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: only appear on Bloomberg Surveillance with a Dow or higher. 11 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: What do you tell people when you say they go 12 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: twenty one? I never imagined it. How do you frame that? 13 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 1: For sophisticates and those like me less sophisticated, We would 14 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,199 Speaker 1: say that less important than looking at the index level 15 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: is actually looking at the underlying earnings for companies, which 16 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:18,119 Speaker 1: is exactly what's led us to these higher index levels 17 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: is the fact that US companies are making again uh 18 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 1: an incredible amount of profits every single quarter. That's really 19 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: the most important piece here. Rather than a particular index level. 20 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: When it comes to volatility, what do we learn last 21 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: week and we had that spike or at least thing 22 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 1: and nine point nine point nine for what do we 23 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,039 Speaker 1: learned last week from that? When I think about the 24 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 1: VIX and I think about volatility in the market, um 25 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,119 Speaker 1: there as the volatility in terms of headlines, right and 26 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 1: those certainly we have plenty of both in the US 27 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: and around the world. But also if we think about 28 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: economic volatility, that's really decreased over the past year or so. 29 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: A lot of the risks that have been threatening the 30 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 1: global economy have receded from plunging commodity prices to a 31 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:09,240 Speaker 1: Chinese hard landing too uncontrolled currencies, and that's what is 32 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: keeping volatility low, I think, is the removal of a 33 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: lot of those economic uncertainties. How do you look at 34 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: at Europe playing off of that a little bit? We 35 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: have the political story when following that for for many 36 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:21,920 Speaker 1: months now, and then there's the economic story. Do you 37 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 1: cleave both of them? Do you look at them in 38 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 1: concert with each other? How do you how do you 39 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: look at the European market economy? Right now? We place 40 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 1: much greater weight on the actual economic story, and that's 41 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 1: been positive for quite a while now. In Europe, we 42 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: saw some very good growth out of Europe in the 43 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: first quarter, two per cent um growth that's being driven 44 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:45,079 Speaker 1: by a rebound in consumption as well as investment UH 45 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 1: and growth that's very diversified by country, and that's very, 46 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: very encouraging in terms of its sustainability. When you look 47 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 1: at at opportunity overseas UH and emerging markets are at 48 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: the AAR zone, where do you see the greatest opportunity 49 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 1: at this point? So we see in exactly both of 50 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: those regions you mentioned, so the Eurozone specifically speaking, and 51 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: when we think about companies, we want companies that are 52 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: able to access that domestic story in Europe, so companies 53 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: that can tap into that rebound in the European consumer, 54 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: for example. And we also look at emerging markets and say, 55 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: with so many, so much stability in these external variables China, commodities, currencies, 56 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: that's actually a good environment for growth to continue improving 57 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: in e M with within this is the feeling that 58 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: it's the greatest bowl market since time began, and people 59 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: say it's unloved, is it really? I mean, you're out 60 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 1: in the trenches what do you hear from institutional people 61 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: desperate to make the benchmark? And what do you hear 62 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: from high net high net worth people. You know they're 63 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 1: in cash, their scirits off. What do I do with 64 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 1: the next three million dollars? Now that we have that problem, 65 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: But what's the mood out there? It has been incredibly 66 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: unloved and I think it's still like Dan Saunders H 67 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 1: David is adamant about this, it's still totally unlooked. And 68 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: we feel that when we're on the road speaking to clients, 69 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: both of the institutional and the individual variety. Our job 70 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,159 Speaker 1: for the past few years has been talking people off 71 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,479 Speaker 1: the brink thinking that the US is about to go 72 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: into a recession, companies will never make enough money again. 73 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: And that's what I think has made it very unloved. 74 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 1: Is this distrust of economic and earnings data. Um perhaps 75 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 1: that's starting to shift as we're starting to see some 76 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 1: fading of those concerns, but we still see a lot 77 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: of special especially individual investors, that are still very heavy 78 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 1: on cash and fixing income. Is dividend grows still work? 79 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 1: We got seconds the just the theme of our lifetime 80 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 1: is dividend growth Still the religion. Well, you have to 81 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 1: think about sustainable dividend growth and whether you also have 82 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 1: earnings growth that's associated with that. So it's not just 83 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: purely chasing dividends and utilities and Telecom's chasing companies that 84 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: are able to grow their dividends and their earnings. We 85 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: want to give us a name or to just you know, 86 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 1: try to, you know, someday we can speak to in 87 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: terms of sectors, I would think about financials. Is actually 88 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: a great dividend and earnings play the reason you have 89 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 1: Gabriela Santos back, we didn't cover financials. How about that? 90 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 1: She is with JP Morgan with our question. Our interview 91 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 1: of the day was on China on the misinformation, the 92 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 1: miss and the reality as we can perceive it of 93 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: their financial system. This was Donald Strassheim. We did this 94 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:48,160 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Television earlier and we are thrilled to go 95 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 1: further now on Bloomberg Radio. David Guraw was just great 96 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 1: on that new fragility and mystery of what they're doing. Yeah, 97 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: thanks for it for sticking a right. Let me ask you, 98 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 1: first of all, what we know about China's death picture. 99 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: We saw the news of the downgrade yesterday China out 100 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:04,359 Speaker 1: It's Moody's fifth highest investment great tick down a notch. 101 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: What do we know about the debt picture? There's all 102 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 1: of this shadow banking. How much of it is still 103 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 1: a mystery? A lot of it's still a mystery. Um, 104 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:16,719 Speaker 1: there is uh a mystery in terms I think of 105 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 1: actual levels. There is a mystery of whether there is 106 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: a mismatch of maturities of all these various paper How much, um, 107 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: how much of long term projects are being financed with 108 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: short term money? This is inherently a problem to be 109 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 1: to be avoided. Are we are we seeing defaults? Are 110 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,840 Speaker 1: we beginning to see more defaults in China? Not materially 111 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 1: that's one of the problems, I think quite frankly, Um, 112 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: you need to have HUM. I don't hesitate to use 113 00:06:56,720 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 1: the term, but an honest system, and failures are part 114 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: of the process. And what we see rather is um 115 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: loans that are clearly non performing get evergreened and they 116 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 1: rolled over, they get rolled over again and again. And 117 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 1: bonds that are financing some four thousand seat opera house 118 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 1: uh in some middle size city that there's just not 119 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: four thousand people to go there every Friday, and Saturday 120 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 1: night for the next decade, and these get rolled over 121 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 1: and over and when when that kind of thing happens, Uh, 122 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 1: it just creates uncertainty and doubt and it's a bad thing, 123 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 1: not a good one. How do you dovetail this that 124 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 1: the conversation about China's debt with what the Chinese president 125 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 1: unveiled at that form a few weeks back we saw 126 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: the meeting at the State Guesthouse with with Vladimir Putin 127 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: all of that, How does that complicate the dead picture 128 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: the ambitious plans of creating this new Silk Road. Actually, 129 00:07:56,240 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 1: I don't think it really does complicate it. Uh. Anything 130 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 1: that happens in this so called new Silk Row one belt, 131 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 1: one road project is going to be agreement among um 132 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: kind of consenting adults. And so China is going to 133 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: have a deal with Country X and this or maybe 134 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: a multilateral deal on some infrastructure project or whatever happens 135 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: to be. UM. Unless all parties agree to this, it's 136 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: not going to happen. So we don't really know the 137 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 1: scope of this project yet and we won't uh, And 138 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: it'll be a constantly moving target. Given how important debt 139 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 1: has been to fueling the Chinese e comedy. What what 140 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 1: will the Chinese prison do? What options are available to him? Uh? 141 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: Would he scale back the reliance on debt? Is that 142 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: even a possibility? But does he have to keep counting 143 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 1: on it to maintain the level of growth we've all 144 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:59,719 Speaker 1: become accustomed to? There? He he has to continue. Uh, 145 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 1: they are reliant on debt, they're addicted today. He has 146 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 1: to continue that. He can't do He can't reduce it 147 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: in any kind of uh precipitous way. But their growth 148 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 1: rate is going to come down, and it's going to 149 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 1: come down a long ways over the next decade. And 150 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 1: it is a myth to think the new normal, just 151 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 1: to use bill growth term from a few years ago. 152 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: The new normal is not any number. Well, it's a 153 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 1: lower number every year. I want to go back to. 154 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 1: And I'm gonna mispronounce this, sir. The Guaso opera house 155 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 1: is Guiso on the Pearl River, right, So they build 156 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 1: an opera house. Maybe it's that one, maybe it's one 157 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 1: of ten others, and they have debt for that. Who 158 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 1: holds that debt? The banks, the state owned banks, the 159 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:47,559 Speaker 1: state owned the issue bonds to build an opera house. 160 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,079 Speaker 1: I assume the government issues the bonds. Who owns the banks? 161 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 1: The banks not like a mutual fund that this is 162 00:09:56,600 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: not usually owned by guys like you and me over 163 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 1: there are there in solvent If they own Guangcho opera 164 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,439 Speaker 1: house bonds, they are. They are solving so long as 165 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: the lender of last resort is prepared to make them solves. 166 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 1: So this is my key question. I don't have time, 167 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,839 Speaker 1: but do they have the cash to be lender of 168 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 1: last resort? The answers they do. The answer is they do? 169 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 1: What do they they? Well, what's the hurry? Okay, well, 170 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:29,200 Speaker 1: the hurry maybe the international markets. The whole issue is 171 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: they control both your kids side of the liabilities side 172 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 1: of their own ballet, don we Gotta go, won't play 173 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 1: Pocito dumno? Here to get us out down strass, I'm 174 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:55,439 Speaker 1: on Chinese opera houses. This is Bloomberg. We promised this 175 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 1: a few minutes ago. Eager to have is he commnual 176 00:10:58,000 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: joining us now? I could spend five minutes reading all 177 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: of his various professional titles. I'm just gonna say here. 178 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: He's a Vice Provost for Global Initiatives at the University 179 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania, Senior fellow at the Center for American Progress 180 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 1: will flag his new book as well forthcoming. Uh. Here 181 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: I think in early June the book called Prescription for 182 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: the Future, the twelve Transformational Practices of highly Effective Medical 183 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 1: Organization zeke. Let's start with that CBO score highly anticipated. 184 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:23,079 Speaker 1: Another iteration of scoring on this on this bill, the 185 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 1: American Healthcare Act. What did you take away from what 186 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 1: the CBO had to say yesterday? Well, basically, it's the 187 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: same as be born. It shows you that the MacArthur 188 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 1: effort to quote unquote soften the houses affordable American Healthcare 189 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 1: Act did almost nothing. Uh. It's spent a bunch of 190 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: billions of dollars and had negligible impact even on the 191 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:50,359 Speaker 1: number of uninsured or on the total cost of healthcare 192 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 1: for Americans who would buy insurance. Uh. You have twenty 193 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 1: three million people going to be thrown off insurance. Uh. 194 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: The uninsured rates going to go over fifty million Americans 195 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: by twenty UM. I think you know I've u this 196 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: word before to describe the American Healthcare Act. It's cruel. 197 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:13,320 Speaker 1: I don't. I find it's hard to analyze it any 198 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 1: other way. It grows twenty three million people off of coverage. Uh, 199 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 1: it raises insurance premiums, especially for people who have illnesses. UH. 200 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: And it gives a big tax break to healthcare corporations 201 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,839 Speaker 1: and the rich. UM. This does not sound like the 202 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: kind of plan most Americans want. UH. It seems very 203 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: very cruel. We had Michael Cannon on your friend, Michael 204 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: Cannon from the Cato Institute just a few minutes ago, 205 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 1: and he was talking about, yes, this particular piece of legislation, 206 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: but also what he thinks is wrong with with the 207 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 1: Affordable Care Act, and he plays his blame squarely on 208 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 1: the the regulations imposed by that law. I just want 209 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: to get your response to that. When you when you 210 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: look at these insurance companies pulling out of market places 211 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,839 Speaker 1: in places like Kansas City or Iowa, Virginia, how much 212 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 1: of that is attributable early to to to what's called 213 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 1: for by the Affordable Care Act. Well, a lot of 214 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 1: it's attributable to UH. I would say, let's put it 215 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 1: this way. You could easily stabilize all the insurance markets. 216 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 1: And you should remember the Congressional Budget Office said they're 217 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: here to stay, they're not going away. You could easily 218 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 1: stabilize them by enforcing the mandate. UH. Strongly and telling 219 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 1: reminding people to have to buy insurance. That will get 220 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: some people to buy insurance. Second, of all, those cost 221 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: sharing subsidies that the Republicans keep threatening or at least 222 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:33,200 Speaker 1: making uncertain, means that insurance companies don't know whether to 223 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 1: bang on them or not, and so are raising rates 224 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: and are or or withdrawing. And the third thing you 225 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: could do is the reinsurance, which remember Marco Rubio pulled 226 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: out at the Affordable Care Act, was solidly in the 227 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 1: Affordable Care Act and he changed the rules halfway through 228 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 1: the game. Do those three things and there are someone 229 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 1: to better targeted advertising, and those marketplaces are stable and 230 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: actually the rates come down. So I agree that we 231 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:00,839 Speaker 1: could do more with Cannon, but that's not to say 232 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 1: you throw the whole thing out that talks about reform 233 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,439 Speaker 1: not repeal. He is scathing and we've got a huge 234 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 1: response against Mr Cannon. Thank you all of you for 235 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: emailing uh In, particularly Matt in London. Ze Commanuel, the 236 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:17,559 Speaker 1: first thing you said is a distinction of do a mandate, 237 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: So everybody's covered. That seems to be the not Democrat, 238 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 1: not Republican, but the libertarian complaint. What is your study 239 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: and analysis of the outcome of mandating everybody to do this. 240 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: What happens, Well, the public doesn't like I mean, and 241 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 1: I'll be honest. The poems suggest that it is the 242 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 1: single part of the Affordable Care Act which the public 243 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 1: doesn't like. A mandate. You cannot but the public has 244 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 1: to be educated. And again I would say that we 245 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 1: democrats but not do a good job of educating them 246 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 1: to say, Look, you want no pre existing condition exclusions. 247 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 1: You want everyone to be able to get int at 248 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: a reasonable rate. You have to have a mandate or 249 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 1: you have to have Why can't we do that? Where's 250 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 1: the courage, where's the will to say this is what 251 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 1: we believe in. If you don't like it, this is 252 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 1: the outcome. Yes, I think I think we have to 253 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:18,840 Speaker 1: do a better time to explain that. But I would 254 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 1: say so for my standpoint, if we don't like the mandate, 255 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: the only alternative to really getting a stable market with 256 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 1: pre existing disease exclusions is we're going to auto enroll 257 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: everyone into an insurance package. Everyone gets it by default 258 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: of being an American. We do that with Medicare, party, 259 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 1: we basically do that with Social Security. I think that's 260 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 1: it Okay, the alternative. Here's what we're gonna do. We're 261 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: gonna come back. David Gura just wrote down that smart 262 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 1: response from Dr Emmanuel. This is a raging debate. What 263 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 1: we're trying to do with surveillance, folks, is give you 264 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 1: many conversations on this so you can decide. We hope 265 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: you're accomplishing that with us. Right now, Doctor Emanuel, I've 266 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: got a sore elbow. Maybe you can help me with 267 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,359 Speaker 1: it later, Zeke Manuel. The new book will be prescription 268 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: for the future. David Gura is unleashed, Doctor Manuel. One 269 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: of the most important photographs in the history and courage 270 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 1: of American medicine. Eighteen forty seven the Massachusetts General Hospital 271 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 1: Southwestern Haws early operation using ether for anesthesia. That is 272 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 1: a spiritual place in America, that dome at mg H 273 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 1: and the photograph. I'll put it out on Twitter, folks. 274 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: The photographs extraordinary. I think it's eight six. John Warren 275 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 1: did h and he was the nephew of one of 276 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 1: the great American unknown American revolutionary heroes, Joseph Warren, who 277 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: was a physician in Boston and the leader of the 278 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,720 Speaker 1: Boston Revolutionary Group. And I know this photo. I know 279 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: this from Joseph Warren and Johnny Tremaine, which I read 280 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: when I was ten years Oh, zeke Emanuel, here's the 281 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 1: emotion that everybody faces. If we go to a socialized 282 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: medicine further on than Obamacare, where everyone's covered, we will 283 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:09,360 Speaker 1: lose our technical and research excellence. Will we lose our 284 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: worldwide excellence in medicine if we go to where everyone's covered? Oh? 285 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:21,880 Speaker 1: Absolutely not. Just quite the contrary what you see once 286 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:25,119 Speaker 1: you do cover everyone, as you see a focus on 287 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: trying to dramatically improve equality and lower the costs of healthcare, 288 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 1: and that yields a lot of innovation. One of the 289 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 1: things I like to say to investors is in the 290 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 1: seven years, in the five years immediately after passage of 291 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 1: the Affordable Care Act, venture funding and healthcare increase compared 292 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 1: to the five years before. UM, there are a lot 293 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 1: of talented people coming into healthcare because they see a 294 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: lot of ways to innovate in the delivery of care, 295 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 1: making it much more efficient, uh, making it much better 296 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 1: for patients. So I think, quite the contract, you're going 297 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:01,679 Speaker 1: to see a huge flood actually, uh with if we 298 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: continue with the Affordable Care Act in universal coverage of innovation. UH, 299 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: in lots of places we haven't seen innovation before UM, 300 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: and that's very important. Do not think of innovation and 301 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 1: healthcare is just a new pill or a new medicine. 302 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: There are going to be innovative processes of care, innovative 303 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 1: ways of trying to get patients to be more adherent 304 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 1: to their treatments and to lifestyle changes. And those are 305 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 1: all serious and very vital innovations for improving our health, 306 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 1: which is the ultimate outcome measure. I definitely want to 307 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: talk a bit about that in just a minute here, 308 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 1: But let me put a question to you that I 309 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 1: put to Michael Cannon a few moments ago. That is, 310 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 1: if if you have a lot of these companies pulling 311 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: out of marketplaces, do you think that that turns sentiment 312 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 1: against those companies and makes makes Americans more willing to 313 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 1: consider a single payer system where a government run healthcare plan. 314 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: Michael Cannon, I don't mean to have you guys debate 315 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 1: by proxy. His response to that was he thinks that 316 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 1: there are those in in Republican circles in particular, who 317 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 1: think that was the plan all along, that this was 318 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 1: going to May We're handicapped the insurance industry so much 319 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 1: that we were going to get that universal coverage. I'll 320 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 1: let you respond to that if you'd like, But I 321 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 1: just wonder what you what you think sentiment. First of all, 322 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 1: I think that's a ludicrous analysis if you actually look 323 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 1: what happened after the passage of the Affordable Care Act, UH. 324 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 1: The insurance company UH number of members went up, their 325 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 1: revenues went up, and their stock prices went up. Everyone 326 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 1: thought this was a great bill for insurance companies. UH. 327 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 1: Not the reverse that it was a covert method to 328 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 1: blow up insurance companies. Remember, the problem here for the 329 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 1: exchanges has not been the Affordable correct It's been the 330 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,199 Speaker 1: Republicans pulling away the reinsurance and saying, well, we're not 331 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 1: going to fund the cost sharing subsidies. That's what's thrown 332 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 1: the insurance market into his tail spin. So it was 333 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 1: not a covert way to get UH single payer at all. 334 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 1: And there are many people who worked on it, myself included, 335 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 1: who were not did not think single player was something 336 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 1: we're going to get in the United States, or maybe 337 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,679 Speaker 1: even the most a horrible way of delivering healthcare for 338 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 1: a variety of reasons. So I think that's the absurd, 339 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 1: uh conspiracy theory, UH fake news story. I look at 340 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 1: your book here again out on June the six, so 341 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 1: we have a preview you copy, but but one of 342 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 1: them here, a chapter here is how to pick your doctor. 343 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 1: And I think that's something a lot of people wrestle 344 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 1: within this conversation about where medicine is going, how it's 345 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 1: being transformed. That's the notion of how you pick a 346 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: physician changed. Yes, I do think we have better ways 347 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: of trying to pick a physician. The first thing you 348 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:36,120 Speaker 1: want is a physician who's focused in uh in arranging 349 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,879 Speaker 1: their office on patients, not on making their schedule better. 350 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 1: So one of the things you want to ask is 351 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: do they have something called open access scheduling, That is, 352 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,159 Speaker 1: they have open spots in the day, so if something 353 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: comes up or you happen to have three times, you 354 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 1: can actually see the doctor when you want, not when 355 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: the doctor wants. The second thing that's really important is 356 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: you want a doctor who's monitoring their quality. So you 357 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 1: want someone who's evaluating on an ongoing asist their performance. 358 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: I recommend in the book you want a doctor who's 359 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: got a patient centered medical home UM That's not the 360 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: only way they could evaluate it, but it is one 361 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 1: way many doctors do. I think those are probably the 362 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 1: two best criteria. UM. I would say, you know, I'm 363 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: sort of as the chapter suggests, I'm against concierge medicine, 364 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 1: and I'm against just relying on word of mouth. Those 365 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: tend not to be or the your local magazines. You know, 366 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,639 Speaker 1: fifty best doctors in the Washington, D c. Area wherever 367 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 1: it happened to be. Those tend not to be UM 368 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: driven by any data. Let me ask you the same 369 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 1: question I asked Michael Cannon. We had Missouri, Kansas City, 370 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 1: Blue across whatever drop out of these programs yesterday. Michael 371 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 1: Cannon of course mentions Tennessee. You know all these you 372 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 1: know what zip codes are involved, et cetera. Where's the 373 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 1: tip point? Where's the point where you know, not that 374 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 1: they're going to protest in front of sixtund Pennsylvania Avenue, 375 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,399 Speaker 1: whoever is the White House, But where's the tip point? 376 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: Is insurance companies just say this isn't working? Yeah? No, 377 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 1: I think the tipping point is going to be the elections. 378 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: If you want to know the truth, I think if 379 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 1: I were Mr Uh MacArthur in New Jersey. I'd be nervous, uh, 380 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 1: And I think a lot of moderate Republicans are nervous. Unfortunately, 381 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 1: given the gerrymandering, the people who voted for it are 382 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 1: are going to be you know, immune. But I think 383 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:32,919 Speaker 1: the Republicans are going to take uh, you know, this 384 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 1: is an election issue and people have you know, taking 385 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 1: away guaranteed insurance and guaranteed no pre existing conditions. People 386 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 1: are very upset about that, and I think you are 387 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 1: going to see people pay the price. And then we're 388 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 1: gonna get back to all right, how do we stabilize 389 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 1: the market. What are the reforms we need? And again 390 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 1: I'm I'm honest. We've had you known seven years. We 391 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 1: need reforms. It's not like the Affordable Care Actors working perfectly. 392 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:03,439 Speaker 1: But reform is not throw everything out through millions. Okay, okay, 393 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 1: but but you you hit the heart, you built this thing. 394 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 1: It's your fault. So seek if it's your fault, what 395 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: does Chuck Schumer need to do because quote unquote it's 396 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 1: not working perfectly. But well, I I've told you that 397 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,840 Speaker 1: there are many things to do. So first, stabilizing the 398 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,360 Speaker 1: insurance market. I gave you the three most important things 399 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,879 Speaker 1: to thank you. H. There's a lot of cost control 400 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:29,640 Speaker 1: things that we can do quickly. Change how we pay 401 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 1: doctors in hospitals, so it's off fee for service and 402 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 1: it's on what are called alternative payment models. Give them 403 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 1: one bundle or give them a set amount of money 404 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 1: to take care of a patient, what's called capitation. UH. 405 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 1: Make all the insurance companies that are contracting with the government, 406 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,159 Speaker 1: whether through the exchanges of the Federal Employee Health Benefit 407 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 1: Plan or try Care, make them also go to an 408 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,879 Speaker 1: alternative payment models. This is the best way of focusing 409 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: them on keeping costs down, of keeping focusing doctors and 410 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 1: hospitals and keeping costs down, And ultimately that's the best 411 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 1: way of keeping insurance prices down. You need to handle 412 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 1: the drug company, the drug costs. UH. President Trump has 413 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:13,679 Speaker 1: been very vocal about that. This bill. Ironically, zero zero 414 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,880 Speaker 1: planks in this bill about cost control. Nothing in this 415 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 1: bill and out cost control. So if you really want 416 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,639 Speaker 1: to keep insurance costs down for the long term, you 417 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 1: need cost control. And they have said the Bay the 418 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 1: Republicans have had nothing to say about that. Those are 419 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 1: the things I would those are the things I would do, 420 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 1: and there's a lot of there's a lot of sentiment 421 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,720 Speaker 1: in the public I think for those kinds of changes, 422 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,400 Speaker 1: But that's not the direction. You know, when I went 423 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 1: in and met with President Trump, that's the direction I 424 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,919 Speaker 1: advised him to go. That's not the direction of the 425 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,879 Speaker 1: Republicans have chosen to go. We gotta leave it there. Zekeimanuel, 426 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: when your book comes out, Don't be a Stranger, Ezekie 427 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:53,239 Speaker 1: Omanuel M. D uh and one of the authors of 428 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,359 Speaker 1: Obama Care. The book is prescription for the future. As 429 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 1: we said, he can come back on when he sells 430 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 1: the movie rights. Brunt You by Bank of America. Mary Lynch. 431 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 1: With virtual reality, virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in 432 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:18,400 Speaker 1: a transforming world. Be of a mL dot Com, slash vr, 433 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 1: Mary Lynch, Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated. There's something new 434 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,919 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg. It's called Lens. Starting right now, you can 435 00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:35,879 Speaker 1: use the Bloomberg iOS app off your iPhone or iPad 436 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:40,359 Speaker 1: or our new Google Chrome extension to read any news 437 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 1: story on any website, scan it, and then instantly see 438 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,880 Speaker 1: the news stories relevant market data from Bloomberg. In addition, 439 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 1: see all the bios of the key people mentioned in 440 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,560 Speaker 1: the story. It's called lens, and it is just that, 441 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 1: a lens into the people and the data of any 442 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 1: story you may be reading. Again, Lens brings you the 443 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 1: power of Bloomberg's news and data. Download or io s 444 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,639 Speaker 1: app or search for the Bloomberg extension at the Chrome 445 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,199 Speaker 1: Store to try lens out. Learn more at Bloomberg dot 446 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: com slash lens. Folks, what you don't see off cameras 447 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,399 Speaker 1: here is Tom Ricks is so fired up. We have 448 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 1: gone from Douglas MacArthur to General Maddis and no time 449 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:30,960 Speaker 1: at all. David, why don't you bring in our steam guests. Yeah, 450 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:32,440 Speaker 1: he was for for a while a report at the 451 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,520 Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal in the Washington Post. We then saw 452 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,199 Speaker 1: him switch to military history, really in real time, as 453 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 1: he chronicled the war in I Rock. Tom Ricks is 454 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 1: the author of a new book, Churchill and Orwell, The 455 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:43,840 Speaker 1: Fight for Freedom, and joins us here in Bloomberg eleven 456 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: three oh. Studios want to ask you this first of all, 457 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 1: about how this book came to be. You write about 458 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 1: how Simon Schama has noted the relationship that these two 459 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,920 Speaker 1: gentlemen had. They didn't know each other personally, but admired 460 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 1: each other's at work. How did you decide to to 461 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 1: look at their two careers in tandem? And in fact, 462 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 1: not only do they not know each other, they're so different. 463 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: Yet the hero of Orwell's great novel his name Winston. Uh. 464 00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 1: How I came to this is after I finished my 465 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,200 Speaker 1: last book, The General's for my own edification. I was 466 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 1: going back and looking at out of twentieth century journalism, 467 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: asking myself what last and what didn't. And I started 468 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 1: with H. L. Mencken and I thought, interesting style, totally 469 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,639 Speaker 1: out of date. E B. White Good essays, good style, 470 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:29,959 Speaker 1: irrelevant to today. S. J. Perlman, not funny. Hemingway going 471 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:32,439 Speaker 1: to be forgotten in essentury. Wait minut. I was just 472 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,120 Speaker 1: at Hemingways in Paris and the martiniz are still good. 473 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 1: Hemingway on alcohol will be your thank you, probably his 474 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 1: greatest legacy. Um. And then I picked up George Warwell 475 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:47,800 Speaker 1: and it's like, Wow, this is a contemporary voice. It's fresh, 476 00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 1: it feels like today. You could take an essay of 477 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:54,000 Speaker 1: Orwell's printed in the newspaper today and it would look 478 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,120 Speaker 1: like it was written for today. In fact, I think 479 00:27:56,160 --> 00:28:01,440 Speaker 1: he invented the modern op ed style. What have you 480 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,399 Speaker 1: ever been body slammed by somebody you've covered? Yes, I 481 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:08,679 Speaker 1: have that um in Afghanistan. After the show He Could Battle, 482 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,240 Speaker 1: I came back and I was interviewing the tenth Mountain 483 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 1: Division Unit Battalion. They've been very involved and they were 484 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 1: still so pumped up from combat. The sergeant major slugged 485 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 1: me in the chest and knocked me down. There you go. 486 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,119 Speaker 1: I didn't expect that when I asked the question, But 487 00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:23,959 Speaker 1: what do you make what? What What should we read into 488 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 1: what happened to yesterday's Guardian reporter in Montana being body slammed, 489 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,159 Speaker 1: reportedly by the gentleman running for Congress the Republic and 490 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,400 Speaker 1: running for Christ. What does that say about the level 491 00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,000 Speaker 1: of discourse, the role that that we had, the role 492 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 1: of the way that journalism is regarded right now in 493 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 1: this country. Hitting a reporter, knocking down a reporter cross 494 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 1: as a bright line. Uh, it's not just any citizen. 495 00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 1: Violence against any citizen that's bad. Violence against a reporter 496 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:54,640 Speaker 1: actually violates the First Amendment freedom of the press. And 497 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 1: I would say violence against a reporter is fundamentally un American. 498 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:01,960 Speaker 1: This is unamary connectivity, and we're seeing a lot of 499 00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:06,560 Speaker 1: that I think a president who seems so comfortable with 500 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 1: autocrats and uncomfortable with with with democratic leaders is an 501 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 1: American church Churchill in Orwell. I was just in the 502 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 1: Churchill War rooms in Britain. Churchill had a distance from 503 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 1: the general's. We have a president right now who seems 504 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 1: to have an immense affection for generals, the modern generals 505 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 1: in Dexter Filkins writing in New Yorker now on Jim 506 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:33,960 Speaker 1: Madison and all that. What do you perceive of this 507 00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 1: relationship of the general's not your book the modern generals 508 00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 1: to the president of the United States. Well, Trump combines 509 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:48,880 Speaker 1: affection with ignorance, which is a dangerous combination. Churchill combined 510 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:57,400 Speaker 1: tough leadership with deep knowledge. Churchill fundamentally understood how the 511 00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 1: military worked. He had been overseeing the b Navy in 512 00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 1: World War One. He plunged deep into the facts of 513 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 1: the matter. You know, I I was struck by a 514 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 1: line or very early on in your book you say 515 00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 1: that the great man theory of history is much detigrated today, 516 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:16,560 Speaker 1: but sometimes individuals matter greatly. Uh, as you wrote this book, 517 00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 1: How did that kind of govern the way that you 518 00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: approached the subject here? I mean, were you elected to 519 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 1: do it in light of that. No, there's a real 520 00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:29,840 Speaker 1: place for biography of people and key events. And while 521 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 1: I do believe that there are large trends in history 522 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 1: that are important to pay attention to, demographic and economic. 523 00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:42,640 Speaker 1: Had Churchill not been Prime Minister in nineteen forty, which 524 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:47,720 Speaker 1: was really an accident of British history, world War two 525 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:52,000 Speaker 1: would have ended very differently. Had Churchill not been prime minister. 526 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 1: Chances are we know now that a British government would 527 00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 1: have negotiated a peace settlement with Nazi Germany under which 528 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 1: the Nazis were given free reign in Europe in exchange 529 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,800 Speaker 1: for Britain being allowed to retain its overseas empire. Churchill 530 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,640 Speaker 1: said no. He becomes prime minister only on May tenth, nineteen. 531 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:14,320 Speaker 1: The Conservatives, his own party, don't like him. They don't applaud. 532 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 1: The Labor Party applauds when he walks into the House 533 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,640 Speaker 1: of Commons for the first time as Prime minister. And 534 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 1: what Churchill does in that year is so stunning. In 535 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 1: the summer of nineteen forty, his great speeches are all 536 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,640 Speaker 1: in that year. The phrases we know, blood, sweat and tears, 537 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 1: fight them on the beaches also he leads the military 538 00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 1: in a time when they think the Germans are gonna land. 539 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:39,640 Speaker 1: He leads the British military and it's very well organized, 540 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:43,600 Speaker 1: and he supervises it closely and they fight off. And 541 00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 1: then time works to dovetail Churchill and Orwell with your 542 00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 1: wonderful book The Generals, and to bring it to President Trump. 543 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:55,200 Speaker 1: Does President Trump have a military that can support him? 544 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 1: Or are they just simply I say this with great 545 00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:01,240 Speaker 1: respect for the courage out there, the exhaustion of a 546 00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:05,120 Speaker 1: multidecade war into fronts Iraq and Afghanistan. Are they just 547 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 1: exhausted right now? Yes, m We've asked a lot more 548 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 1: of our current troops than, in fact, we even did 549 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 1: of a lot of our troops in World War Two. 550 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,400 Speaker 1: In World War Two, I think the longest any division 551 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 1: was in combat was twelve months. We have people who 552 00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:22,200 Speaker 1: have now had several years in combat. Uh. But the 553 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,320 Speaker 1: military right now is kind of the adult in the room. 554 00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,360 Speaker 1: I'm not comfortable with having so many generals running our government, 555 00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,680 Speaker 1: but it's a lot better than the alternative, which is 556 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 1: a bunch of bannonite yahoo's. What is your prescription for 557 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,280 Speaker 1: General Madds? He likes to be quiet, He is the 558 00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,200 Speaker 1: quiet marine. He hates the phrase mad dog. To be 559 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 1: clear about it. What is your prescription for the Secretary 560 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,760 Speaker 1: of Defense, Matt As I think of all the generals 561 00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:48,960 Speaker 1: has done the best. Um He has been low key. 562 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,880 Speaker 1: He has basically run the Pentagon by himself, and he's 563 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 1: fought off the crazies in the White House. General Kelly 564 00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,240 Speaker 1: at Homeland Security has not been done so well. I 565 00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:01,040 Speaker 1: think he has um let a very rested group of 566 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 1: officers and customs Enforcement, immigration and so on board of 567 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:09,560 Speaker 1: Patrol up go out and do some things that reflect 568 00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,840 Speaker 1: poor discipline. General Flynn was a disaster. He blew up 569 00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,000 Speaker 1: on the launchpad. General McMaster i've known since he was 570 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,200 Speaker 1: a major. He's now a National security advisor. It's been 571 00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 1: sad for me to watch him on the last We're 572 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,240 Speaker 1: gonna come back. David Girl is gonna do a solo 573 00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 1: here with Tomers because I've monopolised way too much. How 574 00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:31,000 Speaker 1: about this, folks, This is unbelievable. Animal Farm, which I 575 00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 1: would have guessed is ninety two, was published three days 576 00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,200 Speaker 1: after the end of World War to David who was 577 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 1: so successful their constraint on sales when they ran out 578 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,360 Speaker 1: of paper, they literally ran out of paper with World 579 00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 1: War two shortage. This is fabious Churchill in Orwell the 580 00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:51,240 Speaker 1: Fight for Freedom. The pictures alone, particularly last set of 581 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,760 Speaker 1: pictures of the two of them smoking their saving their 582 00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:57,920 Speaker 1: tobacco at their table. They use their Remington typewriter whatever 583 00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,800 Speaker 1: it was, to type this is back this. Michael bar 584 00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 1: is the only one that understands. Is you you? You? 585 00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:06,080 Speaker 1: You actually had a real typewriter, right, My first resume 586 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 1: was on a remicking type. Very good. There we go? 587 00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:12,479 Speaker 1: Where were Tom Ricks? Will continue? Church Hill and or Well, 588 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,200 Speaker 1: Simona let David grew up bringing her steam gust. David. 589 00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna say, smarter than we are. You and 590 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,800 Speaker 1: I are grinding it out in New York. One morning 591 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,520 Speaker 1: in Maine, Sale woke up. She peeked over the top 592 00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:26,040 Speaker 1: of the covers. The bright sunlight made her blank. Tom 593 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:27,759 Speaker 1: Ricks has got to be smarter than us. He lives 594 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,040 Speaker 1: up in Maine. That's very good, about one mile from 595 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,279 Speaker 1: the island that Sal lived on. Robert mccluski wrote, the 596 00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,439 Speaker 1: sun and uh I still see Sal and Jane around town? 597 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:42,480 Speaker 1: Is that right? That is very cool? South and Blue 598 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,480 Speaker 1: Brissal One morning in May and all those great books, um, 599 00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:50,440 Speaker 1: and they still have the same haircuts they had. David 600 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 1: glad to have here with us in New York and 601 00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 1: I live in three oh studios. It strikes me, and 602 00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,160 Speaker 1: we were talking about tim President Trump's approach to the job. 603 00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,720 Speaker 1: He's not a reader. We know that we have Andael 604 00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:01,239 Speaker 1: James to read us on the show from time to time, 605 00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,480 Speaker 1: and I'm always impressed by the depth of his knowledge, 606 00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,000 Speaker 1: his respect for reading and for history. I've heard the 607 00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 1: same thing about General James Secretary James Madis now as well. 608 00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:11,439 Speaker 1: Do you get the sense that the president is learning 609 00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,080 Speaker 1: anything from them and others? You can quibble with having 610 00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:15,920 Speaker 1: so many generals in the cabinet. What are some positives 611 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,960 Speaker 1: that can come from that? Do you think almost none? 612 00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:23,960 Speaker 1: Because I think it is simply too late in life 613 00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,319 Speaker 1: for Trump to catch up with the knowledge space that 614 00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 1: you really need to do that job. Well. I think 615 00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,040 Speaker 1: it must be so humiliating for him all day long 616 00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,319 Speaker 1: to sit there and basically find out he's the stupidest 617 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,280 Speaker 1: person in the room. These are not only very bright people, 618 00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,960 Speaker 1: very energetic people at the top of their profession, alpha 619 00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,799 Speaker 1: males of the type of respects. They also are incredibly 620 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:50,520 Speaker 1: well read and I think it must be just horrible 621 00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:52,600 Speaker 1: for Trump. All all his life, he's paid people to 622 00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:55,080 Speaker 1: tell him how smart he is. All these people are basically, 623 00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,840 Speaker 1: in one way or another saying, sir, you don't understand. 624 00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,000 Speaker 1: So there's the frustration of the president as a result 625 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:03,720 Speaker 1: to that. What's the frustration like for someone like General 626 00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,560 Speaker 1: hr McMaster. We watched as he came out of the 627 00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,560 Speaker 1: White House a couple of weeks ago to say that 628 00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:11,680 Speaker 1: something did not happen in the White House, which a 629 00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,120 Speaker 1: few hours later the President confirmed did happen in the 630 00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:16,480 Speaker 1: White House. How frustrating must it be for someone like 631 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,360 Speaker 1: that to work within within the administration? Operating in that way. 632 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,400 Speaker 1: I think Trump destroys the souls of those around him. 633 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:27,279 Speaker 1: I think Sean Spicer's soul has evaporated entirely. I think 634 00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:30,520 Speaker 1: Killian Conway lost her soul. And I think McMaster has 635 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:34,480 Speaker 1: given up a little bit of his soul. Shakespearean watching McMaster. 636 00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:36,640 Speaker 1: This is not just any general. It's not just any 637 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:41,000 Speaker 1: smart general. McMaster literally wrote the book on the Vietnam War, 638 00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:43,680 Speaker 1: Dereliction of Duty, one of the ten best books on 639 00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:48,920 Speaker 1: the Vietnam War, and its conclusion is Officers senior officers 640 00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 1: need to speak truth to the president, and instead McMaster 641 00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,319 Speaker 1: has gone up there, I think, to retain his credibility 642 00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,839 Speaker 1: with the president, and instead of protecting the country, which 643 00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:02,880 Speaker 1: is the job of the National Scarity advisor, he's protecting 644 00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,360 Speaker 1: the president. Why has he done this? Why has he 645 00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:06,879 Speaker 1: given up a little bit of his soul? And he's 646 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,080 Speaker 1: a very soulful man. When you speak to him, his 647 00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:12,319 Speaker 1: voice thickens with emotion. When he gets angry, he rolls 648 00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:16,880 Speaker 1: his shoulders to loosen his back muscles. Uh. Why has 649 00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:18,840 Speaker 1: he done this? I think because he thinks he's the 650 00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:26,640 Speaker 1: only person standing between having a disastrous national security advisor again, 651 00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,600 Speaker 1: like Flynn. What's the lesson to be learned here from 652 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:31,920 Speaker 1: your book about how these two men at Church in 653 00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,240 Speaker 1: law Well approached that leadership. You look at Churchill his upbringing, 654 00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:37,880 Speaker 1: talk about relationship he had a lack of relationship he 655 00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:41,239 Speaker 1: had with with his father, What he learned and where 656 00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,759 Speaker 1: he went from there? What can we in America in 657 00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,319 Speaker 1: two thousand seventeen draw from from what molded them, what 658 00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,160 Speaker 1: made them into the leaders they were? Oddly enough? This 659 00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,120 Speaker 1: book about Church when Worlwell concludes with looking at Martin 660 00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,080 Speaker 1: Luther King and his Letter from Birmingham Jail, because it's 661 00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:58,480 Speaker 1: very much in the tradition of Orwell's writing and Churchill's approach, 662 00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:04,120 Speaker 1: which is number one, have principles. Number two, don't develop 663 00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,480 Speaker 1: opinions until you understand the facts and really work hard 664 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,279 Speaker 1: to get to those facts, as Churchill did delving down 665 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:14,839 Speaker 1: into the military details of World War Two, and then 666 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,440 Speaker 1: when you have the facts, apply your principles. And I 667 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,160 Speaker 1: think that's a good course to watch for. And I 668 00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:24,120 Speaker 1: think in the current era what I'm particularly watching is 669 00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,440 Speaker 1: people who like Churchill and Orwell, are willing to criticize 670 00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:31,360 Speaker 1: their own side. Churchill breaks with his own Conservative party 671 00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:35,280 Speaker 1: saying no, Nazi Germany is rearming, you cannot appease them. 672 00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:38,319 Speaker 1: Orwell breaks with the Stalinists left and says, no, you 673 00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:41,200 Speaker 1: can't suppress the truth because it disagrees with the party line. 674 00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:43,680 Speaker 1: So what I'm looking for is people who have a 675 00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:47,040 Speaker 1: willingness to break with their own side, to have principles 676 00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,080 Speaker 1: and apply them. And fortunately, in this country we have 677 00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:53,239 Speaker 1: a set of written, written principles for how to go 678 00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:56,360 Speaker 1: for to operate. It's called the American Constitution, which I 679 00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,360 Speaker 1: think is a great operating document and a great strategic document. 680 00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,919 Speaker 1: Look for people who support the constitution and rule of law. 681 00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,360 Speaker 1: Listen to them. I find myself especially now interested in 682 00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,960 Speaker 1: what anti Trump conservatives are saying. I'm thinking of people 683 00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:14,920 Speaker 1: like William Cristo, Elliott Cohen, Um, Charles Crockhammer, George will 684 00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:17,840 Speaker 1: These are the people who I think half principles, have 685 00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:21,560 Speaker 1: a loyalty to traditional conservatism. And I don't think Trump 686 00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:25,320 Speaker 1: is a conservative, He's a revolutionary reactionary. Those are the 687 00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,400 Speaker 1: people I'm paying attention to right now. I'm great to 688 00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:28,759 Speaker 1: see you. Thank you very much again for coming in. 689 00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:30,359 Speaker 1: He's the author of Churchill and or Well to Fight 690 00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,480 Speaker 1: for Freedom. Tum ricks a joining us here in Bloomberg 691 00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:49,279 Speaker 1: eleven three oh Studios. This is an important interview and 692 00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:51,799 Speaker 1: not nearly enough time, and we will speak to him often. 693 00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:55,680 Speaker 1: I'm sure. Mob Brooks is from the fifth District in Alabama, 694 00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:59,040 Speaker 1: right across the north top of Alabama. He is running 695 00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,239 Speaker 1: for Senate Cox. Good morning, Good morning. What have you 696 00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:04,760 Speaker 1: learned about the Republican Party in the last two weeks. 697 00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:06,480 Speaker 1: You're in the middle of a dining book of a 698 00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:11,760 Speaker 1: campaign in Alabama for Jeff Sessions. See there's been this district, 699 00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:16,719 Speaker 1: that district council Republican Party doing right now. Well, I 700 00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:22,760 Speaker 1: think that the national media, quite frankly is hammering Republicans 701 00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,839 Speaker 1: on a regular basis, and they're doing it in kind 702 00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:29,879 Speaker 1: of an alice in Wonderland, um arena. They aren't paying 703 00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:33,560 Speaker 1: attention to the major challenges that America faces. Instead, they 704 00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:37,880 Speaker 1: focus on small things which are big to individual citizens 705 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:41,080 Speaker 1: around the United States. But by small, it's small in 706 00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:44,800 Speaker 1: comparison to the debilitating insolvents in bankruptcy and the damage 707 00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,440 Speaker 1: that we will be done if we don't do something 708 00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,680 Speaker 1: to get our out of control spending under control. Uh 709 00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,959 Speaker 1: And so I wish the mainstream news media would talk 710 00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:58,120 Speaker 1: more about Venezuela, where sev of their population has had 711 00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:02,040 Speaker 1: an average weight loss of nine teen pounds. I mean, 712 00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:05,120 Speaker 1: that's huge because they can't get enough calories and enough 713 00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:07,799 Speaker 1: food to sustain their body weight. That's what happens when 714 00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:11,239 Speaker 1: a central government goes to an insolvency in bankruptcy, and 715 00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,080 Speaker 1: that is quite clearly where the United States of America's headed. 716 00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:18,080 Speaker 1: If we don't do something about are our spending our 717 00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:22,360 Speaker 1: deficits this year, well this past year, about seven billion 718 00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,240 Speaker 1: dollars and it looks like it's gonna be worse going 719 00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:28,200 Speaker 1: forward over the next decade. Corfferson Brooks, I wonder if 720 00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:29,960 Speaker 1: you could just tell us what the path forward here is. 721 00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:32,640 Speaker 1: After the election, there was a lot of enthusiasmic expectation 722 00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:34,600 Speaker 1: that a lot more would get done on Capitol Hill. 723 00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:37,560 Speaker 1: We've seen the latest CBO score, We've got the White 724 00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:41,279 Speaker 1: House budget, We've seen reaction from both parties. Uh, it's 725 00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,880 Speaker 1: muted or dismissive of that president's budget. Where do we 726 00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,799 Speaker 1: go from here? What do you say to constituency wonder 727 00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:49,359 Speaker 1: where the action is going to be? Well, which issue 728 00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:51,000 Speaker 1: do you want to talk about? Let's talk about Let's 729 00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:54,160 Speaker 1: talk about the budget first. Let's talk about the budget. Well, 730 00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,319 Speaker 1: the budget I think that has been put forth by 731 00:41:56,400 --> 00:42:00,840 Speaker 1: Mick mulvaney as the um UM Director of Office and 732 00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:05,920 Speaker 1: Management and budget is extraordinarily responsible in the overall sense 733 00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,839 Speaker 1: that it is trying to prevent America from going into 734 00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,879 Speaker 1: a debilitating and solvency and bankruptcy. Now, you can have 735 00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:15,800 Speaker 1: disagreements over where the spending cuts ought to be, keeping 736 00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,560 Speaker 1: in mind that overall it's still spending more money uh 737 00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,160 Speaker 1: than last year, and and to me that's somewhat troubling, 738 00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:25,520 Speaker 1: but I cannot over emphasize the danger associating with us 739 00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:27,960 Speaker 1: continue to rack up these hundreds and hundreds of billions 740 00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:32,239 Speaker 1: of dollars and deficits having to borrow the money because 741 00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:34,080 Speaker 1: we don't have it, we can't afford to pay it back. 742 00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,800 Speaker 1: And long term, if you have even the smallest amount 743 00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:41,080 Speaker 1: of economic sense, you understand that it's a very dangerous 744 00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:43,640 Speaker 1: thing that we're doing and it's going to be devastating 745 00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,160 Speaker 1: to the country until large degree undermine what it took 746 00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:48,720 Speaker 1: our ancestors more than two d years to build. Cogs 747 00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,920 Speaker 1: are not enough time today. We look forward to speaking 748 00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:53,480 Speaker 1: to you at a greater length in Washington. Here David 749 00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:57,080 Speaker 1: gern Times. Thank you to Moe Brooks of the fifth 750 00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:00,360 Speaker 1: district right at the top of Alabama. I mean interesting, 751 00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:02,960 Speaker 1: it's not a Gerrymander district in that sense. It's just 752 00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:06,880 Speaker 1: it's almost like a sane shape. It's almost David like, 753 00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:12,000 Speaker 1: almost directane. They have the House podcast. Join us yere 754 00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:23,040 Speaker 1: on our phone lives. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 755 00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:29,400 Speaker 1: Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 756 00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:33,640 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer I'm on Twitter at 757 00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:38,360 Speaker 1: Tom Keene. David Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, 758 00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:53,160 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio Brunch 759 00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:56,759 Speaker 1: you by Bank of America Mary Lynch. With virtual reality, 760 00:43:57,000 --> 00:44:02,360 Speaker 1: virtually everything will change. Discover I'm opportunities in a transforming world. 761 00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:07,120 Speaker 1: Be of a mL dot Com, slash VR, Mary Lynch, 762 00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:09,560 Speaker 1: Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated