1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Matt and I are 7 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: calling a trend here. We had some good CPI data 8 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: last week, we had some good PPI data. This week 9 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: we're calling out a trend. This FED can cool its jets. 10 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: What's the market telling you? Yeah, well, the market is 11 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: certainly thinking that. You know, we're fully priced now for 12 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 1: only fifty basis points without much chance of a of 13 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 1: a seventy five at all at four December, and then 14 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: you know one or two basis point hikes after that, 15 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 1: and and and you know this idea that whether or 16 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 1: not this is a trend, if you look at the 17 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: month over month numbers for both CPI and pp I, 18 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 1: this is now four months in a row that we've 19 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: been at significant a lower month of month prince than 20 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 1: the previous eight months. So so if if we think 21 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: about this from just from a time perspective, if we 22 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 1: stay at this kind of level, UM, inflation will come 23 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 1: down to almost where where inflation break evens are currently pricing, 24 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: So where one year inflation swaps are pricing UM basically 25 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 1: in the year in the next eight months. So so 26 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:22,559 Speaker 1: so it makes perfect sense, you know. I I think 27 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 1: you know the idea that inflation has peaked. People were 28 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 1: looking for confirmation of that. Now that again, now that 29 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: we have four months of uh, you know prints that 30 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 1: are are pretty reasonable for both CPI and pp I, 31 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 1: it seems that, you know, we have turned a corner here. 32 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: So what are you expecting now in terms of a 33 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: terminal rate? I mean, um, when I was on sabbatical 34 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: UM in the Maldives or wherever you were, seemed like 35 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 1: I was in raja Ampat in Indonesia, but I was 36 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 1: reading the news from Afar and I saw that, you know, 37 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: expectations were climbing over six percent. Are they had they 38 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: come back down? Oh yeah, yeah, there's come way back down. UM. 39 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: So you know, when we when we look at what 40 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 1: um uh, what FED funds futures are now pricing, we're 41 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 1: we're talking more about a five percent top end terminal 42 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: rate is what's currently being priced. I think that that's reasonable. Maybe, 43 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: you know, if if we do get more prints like 44 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 1: this on inflation over the next couple of months, maybe 45 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: the Fed doesn't hike in um uh in in March. 46 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: And if they don't, then you might even have a 47 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 1: slightly lower terminal rate, which was more what our expectations 48 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 1: were for for quite a long time, of of a 49 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: top end of four point seven five percent. But you know, 50 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: we're we're playing semantics here. We we're talking about one 51 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: hike more, one hike less. We're certainly not going to 52 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: six percent, and we're probably not only going to four 53 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: and a half percent. We're going to go somewhere in 54 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: between there. So you're talking about um you know, at 55 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: at the upper bound at four and three quarters or 56 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 1: five percent. I think either way, the Fed has obviously 57 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 1: taken a lot of liquidity out of the market, still 58 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 1: doing quantitative tightening, so they're shrinking the size of their 59 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:57,080 Speaker 1: balance sheet overall, and all of those things are having 60 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: an effect on financial conditions. And and you know, you 61 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: you heard a lot of Fed speakers, you know, Lyle 62 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: brainerd On on Bloomberg Television and Radio yesterday mentioned the 63 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 1: same thing Um, you know about financial conditions being much tighter. 64 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 1: But these things don't don't These things work with a leg, right, 65 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 1: And it's not it doesn't happen immediately, right. So housing 66 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 1: we know has fallen, right, Housing activity has fallen, So 67 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: that has knock on effects that don't take a month 68 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: or two or three. It takes six months, nine months 69 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: too for that the filter through the economy. So so 70 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 1: so I think we are going to see a slowing 71 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 1: not a not only of inflation, but also of just 72 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: economic activity in general. And that's gonna be quite frankly 73 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 1: for the market that I look at. That's gonna be 74 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: good for treasuries and and I think we've seen a 75 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: peak and treasury yields well, I mean for investors. Timing 76 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: is so key, right, These things work with a lag. 77 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: It kind of reminds me of shooting skee. You gotta 78 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 1: you're not gonna shoot where what You're not gonna shoot 79 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 1: where the pigeon is. Now you're gonna shoot what you 80 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: gotta shoot where the pigeon is gonna be When you're um, 81 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 1: when you're uh, babies get there. So I saw a 82 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: note yesterday from Matthew miss at Ubs. He says Um 83 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: in his Global Credit out, Like he says, once in 84 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: a decade opportunity. Nice. But timing is everything. So what 85 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: do you think are we looking at? For example, on 86 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 1: the long end, you know, we're seeing Mom and pop 87 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: in e t s start to go after um uh 88 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 1: long duration debt right now because they think they're locking 89 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: in peak rates. Yeah. I don't disagree with that. I 90 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 1: mean I I put out a note two weeks ago 91 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 1: saying that that we were at peak rates and and uh, 92 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 1: you know that was a little bit pre s and 93 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: on my on my part, but it's, you know, we're 94 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 1: I think the idea that you get a bigger sell off, 95 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: what you would need in order for the bond market 96 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,280 Speaker 1: to sell off significantly more than it already has is 97 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 1: really for another uptick in inflation and better economic activity. 98 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 1: And it's hard to see how things get better from here, 99 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 1: right It's you know, things might stay the same, which 100 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: would be the great scenario and the soft landing scenario 101 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: for for the Federal Reserve, but it's hard to see 102 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 1: how they improve significantly with financial conditions right enough on 103 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 1: the rates side, enough on the rates. Sunday, the World 104 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 1: Cup starts ira As you know, I have Holland as 105 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: my sleeper pick. Where else should I be looking for value? 106 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: I don't want to go Spain or Germany or France 107 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 1: or any of that kind of stuff. Okay, sleeper pick. 108 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: So I am gonna so I said Germany when you 109 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: asked me this question last week. Well, I am going 110 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:27,919 Speaker 1: to go with Taylor Rockwell sleeper pick from the Total 111 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,039 Speaker 1: Soccer Show. Give him a shout out from from the 112 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: podcast that I listened to. He thinks Japan is going 113 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: to get out of a group that includes Germany and Spain, 114 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 1: and if Japan does get through there, then they can 115 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 1: make a bit of a run. I don't know. I 116 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: don't think that they could win the whole thing, but 117 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 1: you know, could they make a run to the semifinals 118 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: for the first time. Maybe? You know, they have a 119 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 1: really good they played really well against the US last month, 120 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 1: and they're you know, they have some really talented players. 121 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: So so maybe Japan. Let me ask, in a day 122 00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:59,479 Speaker 1: and age where a lot of the players on a 123 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 1: team don't really come from that country, doesn't matter as much. Well, 124 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 1: I think, well, Japan. They're almost all were born in 125 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: Japan for sure, and now they play in the Premier 126 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,279 Speaker 1: League and the bundes League in Spain. Right, but they're 127 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 1: they're mostly Japanese crash, all right, Next time we talked 128 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: to you, it's all soccer, all the time, and we're 129 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:17,480 Speaker 1: going to ignore that Federal Reserve because the World Cup 130 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:19,479 Speaker 1: is coming up, folks, that's our jersey. He does it 131 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:26,280 Speaker 1: off the Bloomberg Intelligence So we got one of those 132 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:28,559 Speaker 1: creamy things. Street not a rogy, and he's a senior 133 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: reporter of Bloomberg News. Joins us here, uh at you 134 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: and your partner crime Max table. So you guys have 135 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: a story out there on a Bloomberg trmina about Goldman Sachs. 136 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 1: What do you guys find, Well, something that's allowing on 137 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 1: two levels. Very rarely do you have someone who has 138 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: risen to the level of a Goldman partner airing their 139 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 1: ugliest experiences, even if it is in an internal complaint 140 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 1: at the film. And then when you look at how 141 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: the process went and the fact that Goldman Sachs settled 142 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: with the complaining to a tune of more than well 143 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 1: more than two million dollars an eight figure payout, tells 144 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 1: you that a what was in the complaint wasn't the 145 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 1: most pleasing reading and the price they were willing to 146 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 1: pay to avoid embarrassment. And that's why this is important. Correct, Correct, 147 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: this is a former government partner around two years ago 148 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 1: settled with the bank after finding what was what we 149 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 1: understand to be able Aluminous complained that detailed a sexist 150 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 1: culture at the bank, including senior managing making crude and 151 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: dismissive remarks, paid disparities, the lack of promotions for women. 152 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 1: Some of these issues have been things that Goldman and 153 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 1: everyone else on Wall Street have been dealing with and 154 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 1: have been trying to get past and make real progress. 155 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: But the fact that this happened, in the fact that 156 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: most of the issues an incidents described in the complaint 157 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: were from twenty eighteen and nineteen tell you that this 158 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: is not from a Wall Street long, long, long ago. 159 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: This is very much the now in present. So are 160 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 1: we talking about the kind of paid disparities that we 161 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 1: don't see elsewhere or are these kind of paid disparities 162 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 1: common across Wall Street? Unclear? Right, it's it's it's it's 163 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 1: very I mean, I'm assuming the complaining in this case 164 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 1: would only have had access to internal compensation figure and 165 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: an understanding of what pay was like at Goldman Sex 166 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: would would would we be right in saying that Goldman 167 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 1: Sachs for somehow is an outlier and the rest of 168 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: the Wall Streets can be absolved of some of these sins, 169 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: perhaps not in fact most definitely. No, this is this 170 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 1: is a threat that runs across Wall Street and across 171 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: many other industries, and Wall Street in particular has maybe 172 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,079 Speaker 1: just because you know, their high profile company names, their 173 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 1: high profile people, they make a lot of money, they're 174 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 1: they're always a target of you know, a lot of activists. 175 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: But Wall Street has been an industry that's tried to 176 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 1: put this front and center and tried to, at least 177 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:50,719 Speaker 1: from external perspectives, deal with this issue aggressively. Yet it's 178 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 1: another setback here, you know, your story suggesting that they 179 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: got a lot of work to do as an industry. 180 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: That's a very interesting point because when you think of 181 00:08:57,080 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: the post me to reckoning, we've seen a lot of 182 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:04,199 Speaker 1: troubling things emerged from many other industry, not so much 183 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: from the highest ranks of Wall Street. One theory has 184 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: been that Wall Street's go go days, or perhaps in 185 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: the seventies and eighties, and I was well darn good time. 186 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: I I will still stick to the fact that I 187 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: just mentioned Wall Streets go Go days, or perhaps in 188 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 1: the seventies and eighties and uh raunchy remarks, lude behavior 189 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,439 Speaker 1: wasn't all that uncommon. So maybe there's one theory is 190 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 1: Wald Street has cleaned up a little bit and has 191 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,079 Speaker 1: managed to get past that. But at the same time, 192 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: you also remember these are firms with very deep pockets. 193 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 1: These are firms that have a process in their employment 194 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 1: contracts where a lot of the claims are handled in 195 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: secretive arbitration. In fact, for the longest time, even sexual 196 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 1: harassment complaints had to go through the forced arbitration process. 197 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 1: So there is some validity to the theory that some 198 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 1: of the worst things never got aired because they were 199 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 1: able to dip into their wallets and pay a big 200 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 1: time to score some of these settlements and keep these 201 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: things private and secret well. And also it's seems from 202 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: your reporting that some of the alleged bad behavior wasn't typical, right, 203 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 1: And you describe a situation where David Solomon made a 204 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: comment and then you say that his colleagues were surprised 205 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: because it was so out of character. So it's as 206 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:22,559 Speaker 1: if he let something slip and now and now he's 207 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,199 Speaker 1: paying like twenty million dollars to cover it up. I mean, 208 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 1: let's be very clear all the understanding we have that 209 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 1: CEO of Goldman Sectavis Solomon, wasn't central to the complaint. Yes, 210 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: there is an incident described that looks to quote something 211 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: that David Solomon did say to a gathering of male 212 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: colleagues that was scrude, to put it mildly, But there 213 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 1: were many other managers that were sort of allegedly implicated here, 214 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: many other managers who were quoted. And that's one of 215 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: the things that rattled the top rungs of the bank 216 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: is the broad institutional issue that this problem tried to 217 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: sketch out, the scope for public embarrassment because of that 218 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 1: and the need for them to try and make it 219 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 1: go away. Alright, three good stuff. We appreciate it. Shrieta Rogen, 220 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 1: senior reporter with Bloomberg News, joinings here in our Bloomberg 221 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 1: Interactive Brokers studio. Hey, when you want to get a 222 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: handle on how the retailers doing out there, how the 223 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 1: consumers doing out there, you really can look at some 224 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: of the results from the big retailers, and we got 225 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: a couple of big ones. Today Walmart reported numbers some 226 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,200 Speaker 1: good numbs home depot. I thought the numbers were good. 227 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: They have some inventory issues. We're gonna get to the 228 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: latest there, but we're gonna break it on down. We're 229 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: gonna roundtable this stuff we do with Jen Bartashes. She 230 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:34,439 Speaker 1: covers all things retail for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's based in Princeton. Uh. 231 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: And Drew Reading, he covers the home builders for Bloomberg Intelligence. 232 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 1: We got both of those folks on the line here. Um, Jen, 233 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 1: let's talk with you. Start with you, Uh, Walmart. I 234 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:47,839 Speaker 1: mean people are still spending money, aren't they? They are, Um, 235 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 1: and I think that's actually you know, the bright spot 236 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: here is that the consumer is holding up relatively well. Um. 237 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: They are shifting where they're spending and what they're spending on, 238 00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: but they are still spending money. And that is very important. 239 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,959 Speaker 1: And as we're looking at the economic environment and heading 240 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: into that very important holiday season. So the holiday season important, 241 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 1: But I mean, how is it going to roll out? Um? 242 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:17,080 Speaker 1: This year, We've gotten so much bad news from shippers. 243 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 1: You know, if that Exit just said they're gonna furlough workers, Um, 244 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 1: we're gonna get DHL tomorrow Thursday. I believe I'm looking 245 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: forward to that. It's German, but it's a very big, 246 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 1: you know, global shipper. And then Amazon cutting jobs going 247 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: into holiday season. I was shocked, Yeah, what is up 248 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 1: with that? Jen? Well, you know, when you're you're looking 249 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:40,559 Speaker 1: at cutting jobs, a lot of the jobs are more 250 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: corporate type jobs as opposed to jobs that are in 251 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:47,199 Speaker 1: distribution centers. UM. And we started off with people going 252 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:49,839 Speaker 1: into the holiday planning to hire fewer people this year 253 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 1: than they have in prior years. And I think we're 254 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: seeing that come through, and then we're seeing this additional 255 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 1: round of layoffs that are more in the in the 256 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 1: product development, in the corporate side. UM. But it does 257 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 1: it does indicate that that could be a really big 258 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 1: boon for retailers like Target and Walmart that have store bases, 259 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 1: because if there are delays in shipping and you're worried 260 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 1: that your gifts aren't going to get there, they have 261 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 1: great alternatives in terms of people either going to the 262 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 1: store or being able to pick things up at the 263 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 1: store to make sure that they have those gifts. So 264 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,439 Speaker 1: it could actually be a positive for these retailers. Drew 265 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:26,719 Speaker 1: right and let me bring you in. What's the differentiation 266 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 1: differentiation here? I mean, um, I feel like Lowe's and 267 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 1: Home Depot is going to be a very different story 268 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: than necessarily um, well even Amazon, right, yeah, I mean, 269 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 1: it was certainly certally a good quarter for Home Depot, 270 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 1: and you're right, they do have a different customer base 271 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: than than much of, um, the rest of the retail environment, 272 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:52,960 Speaker 1: and I think it speaks to the resiliency of the 273 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 1: market despite you know what we're seeing in housing with 274 00:13:55,800 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 1: transactions down at maybe down another ten next year. I 275 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: do think it's important to point out though that growth 276 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 1: this quarter really for the last several quarters, has been 277 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: driven exclusively by higher average tickets. So a lot of 278 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 1: that is the result of product inflation. Um You've got 279 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:17,440 Speaker 1: some commodity inflation from from earlier in the quarter. And 280 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 1: then you know, particularly for Home Depot, there's there's relative 281 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: strength due to their exposure to professional customers, which tend 282 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 1: to be a little bit higher spending. Uh. You know. 283 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: On the flip side, though, customer transactions UM have declined 284 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 1: for for several quarters now. We think that's gonna probably 285 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: remain a head wind, you know, as we go to 286 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: next year. Just given our expectations for housing for many weeks. 287 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: Hey drew talking about the home depot, the inventory number 288 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 1: grew kind of really jumped out of me. It seems 289 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 1: like the retail industry has had plenty of quarters to 290 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: deal with the inventory issues, and a lot of them 291 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 1: have kind of done it very well. What's what's different 292 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 1: a depot. Yeah, so it's it's actually down a little 293 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 1: bit from last quarter, but inventories relative to last year 294 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 1: higher because you've got a lot of product inflation due 295 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: to costs. There's also something interesting they pointed out, is 296 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: a mix up in a mixshift higher to high value 297 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: products and what they're selling there hasn't been a trade 298 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: down among consumers. Um. They've also made a lot of 299 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: investments in inventory for the holidays. They pointed out that 300 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 1: they had the best UM year for Halloween sales on records, 301 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 1: so we think there's probably some investments being made ahead 302 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: of the Christmas season. And then they also pointed out 303 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: that the higher inventories are result of some of the 304 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: supply chain challenges that we've seen over the last year. So, 305 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 1: I mean, part of that's probably the fact that they 306 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 1: were ordering ahead of anticipated challenges and now you're starting 307 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 1: to see demand slow a little bit relative to when 308 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: they made these purchases. True, just gets since we got 309 00:15:55,600 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 1: you here, the home market here, the builders, I mean, 310 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 1: are they gonna build stuff here? I mean, you've got 311 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 1: an interesting more more mortgage rates is seven percent here? 312 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: I mean, are they gonna build houses over the next year? 313 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: So it's it's a good question. We think there's probably 314 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: gonna be a pretty severe poolback and housing starts. We've 315 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: already started to see it. Um. You know, we're thinking 316 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: that from you know, the peak of last year to 317 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 1: where we eventually trot could be somewhere around the percent declient, 318 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 1: just based on what we've seen in prior housing downturns. 319 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 1: So builders have certainly taken their their foot off the 320 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 1: gas pedal. They're not spending as much on land, and 321 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: they're taking a degree of caution. You know. That being said, 322 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,360 Speaker 1: I think I think the group as a whole is 323 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 1: in a much better position relative to the last downturn, 324 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 1: which is, you know where everybody tends tends to look. Jen, 325 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 1: how does inflation play into a factor into this holiday season, 326 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: Because at the same time as we're looking at you know, 327 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 1: seven point seven pc CP I prints. UM. We're also 328 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: telling consumers that these big box stores have to cut 329 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: prices because they have too much inventory. So as the 330 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:05,919 Speaker 1: consumer reacting, well, it's it's a delicate balance for the 331 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 1: retailers because they want to have a compelling value proposition 332 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 1: and consumers are seeking that that you know, low price, 333 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 1: but they also need to not completely blow up their 334 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,960 Speaker 1: margins UM. And so as you know, as we look 335 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 1: forward through the holiday season, we're expecting to see a 336 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:23,719 Speaker 1: much higher rate of promotions UM because it is going 337 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 1: to be competitive for the dollars that people are willing 338 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 1: to spend UM, So the promotion rate will be up there. UM. 339 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: But we we are expecting that as inflation comes down, 340 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 1: these are the retailers that pivot very quickly and try 341 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: to bring prices down as quickly as they can UM. 342 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 1: And Walmart alluded to that on their call today, and 343 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 1: so UM it'll be it'll be an interesting challenge to 344 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 1: see how they manage through the inventory without needing and 345 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: still can meet that value proposition. Have some discounts, but 346 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 1: they may not be UM crazy huge discounts in order 347 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: to preserve a little bit of margin. It it will 348 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 1: help to see how the the season unfolds, and if 349 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: sales are slow, the council go up. Hey, Jen, just 350 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,000 Speaker 1: about twenty seconds if I go into a Walmart and 351 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 1: shop from my g I Joe with the Kung Fu grip, 352 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:08,880 Speaker 1: is it gonna be on the shelves house of supply chain? 353 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,159 Speaker 1: Supply chain is much better. Um So, they've worked very 354 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 1: hard at inventory being you know, and having in stocks. 355 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: Um So this year they brought they brought product in earlier. 356 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 1: There seems to be at this point plenty of product 357 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: on the shelves. Um And we'll see how long that 358 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,239 Speaker 1: last to the holiday season. But right now it's at 359 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 1: a healthy level. All right, Jen, Great stuff, appreciated Jen Bartashes. 360 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: She covers all things retail for Bloomberg Intelligence and drew 361 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 1: reading our housing analysts. We got the round table. That's 362 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: great stuff. You can bring these real smart people together 363 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,639 Speaker 1: get perspectives on the retails. We've got another roundtable coming up, 364 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: do we Oh, we've got this guy Eli Manning coming up. 365 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: All right, we'll talk to him in a couple minutes. 366 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 1: Were We love talking to the b I folks. They're 367 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 1: wicked smart as well as the best quarterbacks and some 368 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: of the best analysts on Wall Street, Walmart, home depot 369 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 1: reporting numbers and retailers put up some good numbs here. 370 00:18:56,680 --> 00:19:03,120 Speaker 1: Does that bode well for the holiday shopping season? Let's 371 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 1: talk private equity here, Private equity and a sports biz? 372 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 1: How can that go wrong? Former New York Giant quarterback 373 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:12,120 Speaker 1: and partner with the investment firm Brand Velocity, Eli Manning 374 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 1: joined us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio along 375 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:20,680 Speaker 1: with Brand Velocity founding and managing partner Steve Liebowitz. Um. Eli, Steve, 376 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here in our Bloomberg 377 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 1: Interactive broker. So let's talk about sports first. I'm a 378 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 1: I'm a Wall Street guy. For last, I'm a Wall 379 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: Street guy. All these aheads, I want to talk sports. 380 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: I want to talk to Wall Street. So, Eli, private equity. 381 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,639 Speaker 1: You've now step back from football a few years. You 382 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 1: and your brother are doing all kinds of crazy TV 383 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: stuff Manning cast, which is very fun. Um, but talk 384 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 1: just about kind of what you're thinking about in the 385 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: private equity space. Well, I'm excited. I've excited to join 386 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 1: with the Brand Velocity group. We've been with them about 387 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 1: a year and just really have had a kind of 388 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 1: a private equity one on one uh and learning about 389 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,199 Speaker 1: the business and UH. Just I've been a part of 390 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 1: one acquisition and it was in the sports world. It 391 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:02,800 Speaker 1: was Score Sports, which is a designer, manufacturer seller of 392 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 1: youth sports uniforms, which uh, I'm passionate about. I have 393 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 1: four kids and they're playing every sport. I think that's 394 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 1: one I think business and area that so many people 395 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 1: are familiar with. They love they love their kids playing sports. 396 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: But it's also in a in a part of this 397 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 1: where it is the cost of reasonable you know, you 398 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 1: can get your jersey and your kid for eighteen to 399 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: twenty dollars, and so for me, it's promoting families to 400 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: get your kids outside, get them playing sports, get them 401 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,199 Speaker 1: in and different things. It's the life lessons that are 402 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: taught through sports, and so you know, the cost of 403 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 1: a uniform shouldn't be something holding your back from from 404 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 1: getting your your your kids out there and get them active. 405 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 1: Steve talked to us about your view, your private equity 406 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 1: view of sports. I was just mentioned that. ELI just 407 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 1: seems like like I've been following the media industry for 408 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 1: thirty years and my big media companies, whether it's Disney, 409 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 1: your Votico. They spend more and more and more in 410 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: sports rights every year. It seems like a natural spot 411 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,159 Speaker 1: for Privamly, you're not in the big ten rights, Like, 412 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:05,120 Speaker 1: what are you buying? How do you screen for companies? Yeah, 413 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 1: good questions. Sports. It really is the media, as you 414 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,399 Speaker 1: mentioned that that under underpins all the growth with the 415 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 1: media rights, and there's just a scarcity with all the 416 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:19,640 Speaker 1: entertainment options that people have out there nowadays, live sports 417 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,199 Speaker 1: still is the king. And as long as live sports 418 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: is the king, there's gonna be insatiable demand for it, 419 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 1: and that demand leads to the media rights, which in 420 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 1: turn leads to the growth of the franchises. So we 421 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,280 Speaker 1: think it's a great industry. I mean, it's a broad industry. 422 00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,399 Speaker 1: If you take sports sports adjacent you're talking, you know, 423 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 1: five hundred billion dollar plus global industry. And it maybe 424 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,200 Speaker 1: arguably one of the only industries that really is recession proof. 425 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 1: Because people always say recession resistant, recession proof sports, really 426 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 1: the data backs it up. So what kind of companies 427 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,200 Speaker 1: are you looking at? What are the sizes? How long 428 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,960 Speaker 1: do you want to stay involved? Um, what's your plan? 429 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 1: So we're looking at companies typically with ten million or 430 00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: greater of IBATA. We're looking at all sort of businesses, 431 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 1: consumer sports adjacent businesses as well as you know, potentially 432 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 1: minority interest in sports teams or you know, controlling interests 433 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: in sports teams in Europe. So those are all sorts 434 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: of different things. I mean, like any other investment, you 435 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: can't just rely on the greater fool theory. You've got 436 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,440 Speaker 1: to do your homework. You've got to look at the valuation. 437 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 1: Sports clearly fetches more because of the growth, but you've 438 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:25,160 Speaker 1: got to be cognizant of it. And we will only 439 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 1: swing at the pitch if we think it's the right pitch. 440 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: That doesn't guarantee will be right. But you have to 441 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 1: be super patient and super careful. You're lucky not to 442 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 1: get into the whole crypto thing because some of your 443 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,359 Speaker 1: rivals have been deeply involved with f t X. I 444 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,880 Speaker 1: don't know if you noticed that, yes, stories other than 445 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 1: bone coin, which you are shielding with Al Roker, Right, 446 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: wasn't that? It was like Frank's red Hoots. If you 447 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,399 Speaker 1: eat the most buffalo wings, you can get it n 448 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 1: f t UM. But how did you avoid that? I mean, 449 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 1: so many uh people were sucked in I guess it 450 00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 1: was big money. It's an exciting story as well. Um, 451 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,440 Speaker 1: were you just too busy with other stuff? Yeah, And 452 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 1: I think just the idea that I just didn't quite 453 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:08,439 Speaker 1: understand it, like you know, there's something that comes, you know, 454 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 1: to that. And I didn't quite understand private equity a 455 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,160 Speaker 1: year ago also, but it made sense, like you buy 456 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,440 Speaker 1: a company that's has doing well, they're making revenue, they're 457 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 1: making money, there's real growth, there's a profit there, and 458 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 1: we can come in and and make it better with crypto. 459 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 1: Uh you kind of heard these stories and people making 460 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: jazillions of dollars and great, you know, but I just 461 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: kind ofn't know like where is going house is gonna workout? 462 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 1: So I had a great team of people just saying, 463 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:34,760 Speaker 1: you know, let's just learn more. Let's learn more, and 464 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 1: we just kind of kept trying to learn more, but 465 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,120 Speaker 1: never never pulled the trigger on it. So no crypto, 466 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,679 Speaker 1: but yes to private equity. And the cool thing is, 467 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:46,439 Speaker 1: you know, um, a skeptic or a cynics view of 468 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: private equity is you know, these locusts that come in 469 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 1: and eat up the company, borrowing tons of debt with 470 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 1: the brand and then destroying the value of what the 471 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 1: employees have built. You guys are doing it in a 472 00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 1: very different way. You were ship airing the gains. I 473 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,399 Speaker 1: think that's like your mantra, right, and you're letting the 474 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,399 Speaker 1: employees in on the deal. Yeah, and that's the idea, 475 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 1: and that's why I got involved and Steve started this 476 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,639 Speaker 1: BBG and got involved just could change the culture of 477 00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,919 Speaker 1: private equity. And he truly cares and we care about 478 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 1: the people. I mean, the people are the most important 479 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,399 Speaker 1: thing with these companies that we're looking at and the 480 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: culture of these businesses. And we have a program called 481 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: Share the Gains where we're giving ten percent of our 482 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 1: carried interests back to the employees that are not part 483 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 1: of the upper management. They're getting taken care of in 484 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: different ways. But we want the people who are working 485 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: at these companies to be a part of the success. 486 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 1: You know, when we sell it and we make a profit, 487 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,199 Speaker 1: we want them to kind of be a part of that. 488 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,480 Speaker 1: Note that they can you know, if we do well, 489 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,680 Speaker 1: and they're gonna do well also, and they're gonna be 490 00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 1: a part of this and it really creates a team environment. Steve, 491 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 1: what do you think you know? Partning up with with 492 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 1: a guy as accomplished as Eli is a many walks 493 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 1: of life. What does that bring to your firm too, 494 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 1: and kind of how do you look to kind of 495 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 1: leverage that. Well, the first thing I'll say is that 496 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:05,000 Speaker 1: Eli is an incredibly humble person and he is the 497 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 1: same person in private that he is in public, which 498 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: that's critical because for us, like culture is everything, and um, 499 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: Eli is just perfect fit with our culture. Like Eli 500 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,920 Speaker 1: his passion for for for for the culture of the companies, 501 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:25,199 Speaker 1: for for um. You know, everybody loves Eli. Um. So 502 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:31,400 Speaker 1: when Eli believes in Yeah, Tom Brady's parents probably as well. 503 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:36,439 Speaker 1: A few super Bowls taken away there between Eli and Payton. 504 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: But but we love um you know, his connectivity, I mean, 505 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 1: and everybody loves him. And when he says it, he's 506 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,919 Speaker 1: saying what the truth and what he believes. So it 507 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,879 Speaker 1: just really fits well with what we want to do 508 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 1: and getting our message out with share the gains, you know, 509 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,440 Speaker 1: we do that as very important. We think private equity 510 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 1: often um, you know, companies aren't made of spreadsheets, They're 511 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,439 Speaker 1: made of people in private equity often loses sight of that. 512 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 1: And Eli is as a big believer in the message, 513 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:07,640 Speaker 1: he really can get that message out, and our hope 514 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,640 Speaker 1: is to really make an impact through that message. Talk 515 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 1: about the Manning cast because all my buddies, uh, the 516 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 1: man everybody loves to watch it. Um, it's a new 517 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,200 Speaker 1: format and it's something that I thought this was gonna 518 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 1: something like this was gonna happen ten years ago, and 519 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 1: nobody ever really did it right until you guys have 520 00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 1: done it. What's your what's been your experience? How do 521 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 1: you get into it? Yeah, I mean I think you know, 522 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 1: we got into it just the idea. We we saw 523 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,480 Speaker 1: you know, Kurt herb Street broadcasting game because he had 524 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,320 Speaker 1: COVID and so he couldn't be at the game, so 525 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 1: he didn't. He's often at the Ohio State University, so 526 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 1: he just did it from home. And kind of talking 527 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:42,720 Speaker 1: with Payton to say, well, we could I want a 528 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,119 Speaker 1: broadcast game from that sounds pretty good, Like sitting on 529 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 1: my couchs watching football making fun of my brother Like 530 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 1: that sounds like a good job, and you're like paying 531 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:53,439 Speaker 1: me for it, Like yeah, I mean, I know, I 532 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: went to Old Miss, but I know a good deal 533 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,600 Speaker 1: when I see one. And so that was the idea, 534 00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,359 Speaker 1: and really, you know, just saying Hey, what would it 535 00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 1: be like if Peyton and I were in your living 536 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:05,159 Speaker 1: room watching the game? How would we watch it? You know, 537 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 1: we're not going to talk about the first and tent 538 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 1: run for two yards and tell you where the running 539 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:11,919 Speaker 1: back went to college? Like, we don't know that answer. 540 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 1: We don't know where he went to college, and you 541 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 1: probably don't care either. So let's bring in some guests. 542 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,200 Speaker 1: Have it fun. We'll talk some XS and knows. Tell 543 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 1: you what's going through the quarterbacks mind right now? What 544 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:25,479 Speaker 1: you know, how should they handle this situation? Have Peyton 545 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 1: calls sixty seven time outs? You know when different needs 546 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 1: to call it time out? And so you know, it's 547 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 1: really just kind of uh having fun and in a 548 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:35,640 Speaker 1: different way to watch the game. And you guys got 549 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,360 Speaker 1: a great list of guests, the committed. I mean, it's 550 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,000 Speaker 1: super eclectic. How does that all come about? Well, I 551 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 1: think you just you realize there's so many people that 552 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 1: have a passion for sports and have a passion for 553 00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,520 Speaker 1: football and they grew up with a certain team and 554 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,600 Speaker 1: we used so we try to bring in people that 555 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,400 Speaker 1: are associated with one of the two teams playing that night, 556 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,800 Speaker 1: and whether it's Barack Obama or Snoop Dogg, and I'm 557 00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:03,080 Speaker 1: talking about the eighties Chicago Bears, eighty five Chicago Bears, 558 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 1: or the Steelers of the seventies with Snoop Dogg. And 559 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,159 Speaker 1: he's listing players that he grew up watching. So you know, 560 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 1: Conda Lisa Rice talking about the Browns, and you have 561 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 1: so many people that have a passion for their hometown 562 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 1: football team and for them to kind of talk about 563 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 1: that and get it out, it's natural for them. And 564 00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 1: we have fun and we we don't ask any hardball 565 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 1: questions like you guys are asking today. We try to 566 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 1: keep it pretty simple. So you guys, you guys, you've 567 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:30,080 Speaker 1: been so busy since leaving the the NFL. You have 568 00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,159 Speaker 1: a job, like a day job with the Giants and 569 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 1: you're doing the manning cast and the private equity. I 570 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,400 Speaker 1: mean yeah, I mean exactly. So how how's the Elis 571 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 1: places gonna play out? Are you gonna keep doing those? 572 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 1: We got to decide. I gotta talk with Big Bro 573 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 1: and and I'm up, I'm up for a contract, so 574 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 1: I'll have to, you know, have some some tough discussions 575 00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,920 Speaker 1: with him. But you, I mean, you really have in 576 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:55,000 Speaker 1: Peyton as well, Um developed a knack for broadcasting and 577 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,920 Speaker 1: you know a way that a lot of athletes can't. Um, 578 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 1: are you gonna be appearing in how Hollywood movies? What's 579 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 1: your I don't consider myself a broadcaster, by the way, 580 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 1: just I don't I think they have a I don't 581 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,480 Speaker 1: think I would have been good at broadcasting in the 582 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,240 Speaker 1: typical way of being in studio and booth and and 583 00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:15,640 Speaker 1: doing those things. I think the fact that I could 584 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 1: sit on my couch, you know, just talk football, keep 585 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:22,520 Speaker 1: it very casual, uh fits more um you know style 586 00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,480 Speaker 1: for me. And so I'm enjoying what I'm doing. I 587 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:29,000 Speaker 1: enjoy the football part, staying involved in the game I enjoy, 588 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 1: but also learning and learning about private equity. And you know, 589 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 1: each each day and each deal we look at and 590 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,959 Speaker 1: company we look at, I'm learning something new and and 591 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,920 Speaker 1: just understanding how businesses work. And you know, just the 592 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,160 Speaker 1: timeframe of how you decide whether you want to buy 593 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,480 Speaker 1: a company, like looking at the profit loss, looking at statements, 594 00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 1: looking you know, do do do diligence? You know, given 595 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 1: a pitch. All these things were new to me, exciting 596 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 1: for me, and I'm enjoying the process. Hey, Steve, You're 597 00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:57,719 Speaker 1: know slout yourself. I mean, you know, went to some 598 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:02,440 Speaker 1: trade school up in Cambridge, Massachusetts. I think, uh, New 599 00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 1: York State High School, chess champion and old Miss really yeah, 600 00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, I mean, you got 601 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 1: to take englnch you gotta take math. What's what's what's 602 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,600 Speaker 1: the big called Harvard the Old Miss of the North exactly. Well, 603 00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 1: we interview every Thursday coach Murphy from Harvard because we 604 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 1: carry the Harvard football games up in Boston on our 605 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,240 Speaker 1: radio station. Your Bills fan, tough two weeks, dude, But 606 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:25,880 Speaker 1: you've got a great you got a great quarterback doing 607 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:27,640 Speaker 1: about it. But this is the story I want to get. 608 00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 1: You're a family farmer supplying this year's Rockefeller Christmas tree. Yeah, 609 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 1: that's just that's just nuts. Yeah. Basically, so my family did, 610 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 1: like your great grandfather planted or something. I mean I asked. 611 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 1: It was like ninety years old. I don't even know 612 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:44,760 Speaker 1: who planted it. But our family owned, my father's generation 613 00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:48,520 Speaker 1: owns the property, and the head gardener at Rockefeller Center 614 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 1: was actually and they get hundreds of submissions for the tree. 615 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,200 Speaker 1: And so he was going to drive to see another 616 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,479 Speaker 1: tree in Glenn's Falls and he was driving down the street, 617 00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 1: happened to drive by a bacon lot which had the tree, 618 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,920 Speaker 1: and he's like, that is the tree. The tree was 619 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 1: like discovered like a starlet or something. Right, So it's 620 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 1: just like a wild experience, you know, for you gotta 621 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 1: be the tree family trees. He like, give me thirty 622 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,840 Speaker 1: seconds on the Giants seven and two. Yeah, I mean 623 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,560 Speaker 1: these guys are good. I think we've got a quarterback too. 624 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,360 Speaker 1: By the way, he went to Duke, so he's with me, 625 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,040 Speaker 1: what do you think? Yeah, Daniel Jones is playing great. 626 00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 1: Se Kwon is running, running hard, defense is playing well. 627 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 1: So in the most important thing, they're finding ways to 628 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,520 Speaker 1: win close games. And they're finding ways to close games 629 00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,120 Speaker 1: out and that's something we haven't been able to do 630 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,280 Speaker 1: for a while. And and what that does it also 631 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,320 Speaker 1: this prepares you for late in the year, you're gonna 632 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 1: have these close games. Can you win them? They're they're 633 00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,240 Speaker 1: they're kind of tried and tested, and I think it's 634 00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,000 Speaker 1: gonna be a good run if you ever get tired 635 00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,000 Speaker 1: of having Barack Obama or Condoleeza Rice over. You know, 636 00:31:54,080 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 1: Paul and I are exactly down the good stuff. Eli 637 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 1: Manning he plays football I don't know what he does. 638 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 1: He's doing a ton of stuff. He's doing private equity, 639 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 1: doing broadcast. Yes, I mean no sitting on the couch 640 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,920 Speaker 1: for this guy, Steve Leebwitz. He's managing partner founder of 641 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 1: the firm is known as brand Velocity. And they joined 642 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,680 Speaker 1: us here in a Bloomberg and Actor. They're doing some good, 643 00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:25,520 Speaker 1: good stuff. We appreciate them stopping by. We are they 644 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 1: come back to earth a little bit. That was exciting, 645 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,640 Speaker 1: little fun. Yeah, it's always fun, you know. I took 646 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:33,040 Speaker 1: my mom for sixtieth birthday. I took her to the 647 00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,760 Speaker 1: Super Bowl when Eli and the Giants played Tom Brady 648 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:41,160 Speaker 1: and what is that team called the Patriots out in 649 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:45,560 Speaker 1: Luke Oil Stadium? Where's that Luke Oil State? Indian Alis, Indianapolisanapolis? 650 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 1: Was pretty cool. I also got to see Jane's addiction 651 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,720 Speaker 1: before the game, and I got to meet Anna Ferris. 652 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:54,200 Speaker 1: Oh pretty pretty sweet. Good weekend. Take care of your mom, 653 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,920 Speaker 1: good Jane and my mom especially. But we want to 654 00:32:56,920 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 1: get back to UH finance right now, and we're gonna 655 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 1: do that with the Automated Liquidity Exchange. We're gonna talk 656 00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:09,080 Speaker 1: to the CEO of Alex chin Zoo Sue Um. She 657 00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,840 Speaker 1: joins us down the line right now and Chin talk 658 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,200 Speaker 1: to me first about the collapse of f t X. 659 00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,120 Speaker 1: What does that mean? Ken Griffin said, it's a problem 660 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:23,280 Speaker 1: for the entire industry, the entire financial world, not just crypto. 661 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:27,120 Speaker 1: What do you read into it? Hi, Met Paul m 662 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 1: thank you for having me today on your show. I mean, 663 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:34,920 Speaker 1: then the collapse of the ft exchange was so devastating. 664 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:41,240 Speaker 1: I think the crypto industry has experienced the most shocking 665 00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,840 Speaker 1: event since mounts. I don't know if you remember the 666 00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:50,280 Speaker 1: Mount Goog that was around the mt g o X right, 667 00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:54,000 Speaker 1: it stands for Magic the Gathering Online Exchange. It was 668 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:59,040 Speaker 1: the first big bust in crypto. Yeah, I think up 669 00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:04,080 Speaker 1: to fifty tho bitcoins was stolen. That's about hundred six 670 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:08,800 Speaker 1: thirty six billion worth of bitcoin were stolen, and many 671 00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,839 Speaker 1: many people in the cryptal industry is in the same 672 00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:14,840 Speaker 1: opinions mean that the collapse of this epting ex exchange 673 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,879 Speaker 1: is pretty much as bad as that one. So can 674 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,360 Speaker 1: you imagine just in one week, the third largest cryptural 675 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,040 Speaker 1: change of TX, they experienced a bank around, they halted 676 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,400 Speaker 1: customer withdraw, they enter into a failed talk to be 677 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:33,520 Speaker 1: acquired by the competitive bideness. They discover that they are 678 00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:37,720 Speaker 1: short between eight to ten billion customer funds. They got 679 00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:44,319 Speaker 1: hacked about half a billion. The file chapter PHAPS wasn't 680 00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,040 Speaker 1: maybe an inside job who took those coins? What do 681 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 1: you think about how it happened, Shinzo, Yeah, it really 682 00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:56,720 Speaker 1: started with is really interesting. Started with with the coin 683 00:34:56,840 --> 00:35:00,400 Speaker 1: deesk article, right, it featured a breakdown of the league 684 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:05,360 Speaker 1: Alameda Research balance sheet. Now Alameda is the hedge found 685 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:10,360 Speaker 1: is a trade in firm that also started uh founded 686 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:15,439 Speaker 1: by sand Banking Tree. And what happened was that as 687 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:19,359 Speaker 1: of June thirties, you could see that the Alameters essay 688 00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:24,160 Speaker 1: mounted to about fourteen point six billion. However, this single 689 00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 1: beings access was three point six six billions of a 690 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,080 Speaker 1: lack ft T and f CT is the f T 691 00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,719 Speaker 1: s own token. And then the third largest entry was 692 00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 1: to a bit more than two billions of this collecter. 693 00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:43,279 Speaker 1: So basically the majority of Alameters egty is actually f 694 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:47,000 Speaker 1: T s own token um f t T. And this 695 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,360 Speaker 1: is obviously you know the completely runway west risk and 696 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:54,880 Speaker 1: I crediting Ouden on the treature. She she used this example. 697 00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 1: She said, imagine McDonald makes its own money and called 698 00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:02,440 Speaker 1: clown bucks, right, it keeps most of it and then 699 00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,839 Speaker 1: it's still some of it to the market, and then 700 00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:09,200 Speaker 1: McDonald then stand their remaining clumb box to its trading arm, 701 00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:12,360 Speaker 1: which is Alameda, which then use it as a collateral 702 00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:15,960 Speaker 1: for the actual loves from McDonald. Exactly. That's the problem 703 00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,680 Speaker 1: with SPF told The New York Times yesterday that UM 704 00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:24,000 Speaker 1: Alameda had a large margin position at f t X, 705 00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,000 Speaker 1: which is another way of saying they had all of 706 00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:30,759 Speaker 1: f t X his money and the eventually essentially lost it. 707 00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,840 Speaker 1: What do you do with ALEX? What does the automated 708 00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,319 Speaker 1: liquidity exchange do? Because liquidity was one of the big 709 00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:42,640 Speaker 1: problems here, right, so ALEX Central Automatic Change. We are 710 00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,840 Speaker 1: at if I built on bitcoin, what it means that 711 00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:50,200 Speaker 1: all the transactions are settled on bitcoin. UM. I really 712 00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:53,080 Speaker 1: like this. I really appreciate this opportunity to come on 713 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,880 Speaker 1: the air today to really to UM say that out loud, 714 00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:00,759 Speaker 1: that there's really a huge difference between fight and ce 715 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,560 Speaker 1: fight right, And I want to stress that c F 716 00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,920 Speaker 1: I should not be confused with defect. So if we 717 00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,680 Speaker 1: look back to what happened with the f t X, right, 718 00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:13,920 Speaker 1: who caught bank Man Free. It's not sec, it's not set. 719 00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:20,520 Speaker 1: It was cryptography and crypto community SPF could influence regulators 720 00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:25,400 Speaker 1: legally bright politicians with donations and show faith balance and 721 00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,680 Speaker 1: due to the opaquness or c fact, but it could 722 00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:33,480 Speaker 1: not be bitcoins verification, right, So yeah, go ahead, I 723 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:36,799 Speaker 1: just should point out that, um, you know, bribery is 724 00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,839 Speaker 1: illegal and that's a big allegation. So we don't know 725 00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,719 Speaker 1: what happened. We don't know. We don't want to say, um, 726 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,879 Speaker 1: we don't want to make that kind of accusation. Of course, 727 00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,399 Speaker 1: SBF was a big political donor. I think he gave 728 00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:52,440 Speaker 1: thirty forty fifty billion a million dollars million with an 729 00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:56,080 Speaker 1: m UM to political candidates in this election cycle. But 730 00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,239 Speaker 1: you know, we still have yet to find out. The 731 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,720 Speaker 1: interesting thing I think is that, um, this was supposed 732 00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:07,399 Speaker 1: to be bitcoin initially it's a trust less currency, right, 733 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:11,040 Speaker 1: and it's all about decentralized finance. But at the end 734 00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:14,840 Speaker 1: of the day, too many people trusted Sam Bankman Freedom 735 00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:19,080 Speaker 1: f t X gave him their private keys, essentially giving 736 00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,720 Speaker 1: him their fiat and crypto to hold, and of course 737 00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:27,880 Speaker 1: he seemingly then used it wasted it spent it and 738 00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,520 Speaker 1: they didn't know that was going to happen. Is he 739 00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,719 Speaker 1: going to be prosecuted for fraud or do you think 740 00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:37,040 Speaker 1: there could be criminal charges coming? Yeah? I think so 741 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,600 Speaker 1: because you know, this f t X collapse reflects the 742 00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:45,080 Speaker 1: failure not only by you know, from an inexperienced CEO 743 00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:48,040 Speaker 1: who puts short term great ahead of long term value. 744 00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,480 Speaker 1: I mean I I myself have been regulative for more 745 00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:54,040 Speaker 1: than two decades because I was working on a wall street. 746 00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:56,919 Speaker 1: I think the cryptal industry needs more, you know, growing 747 00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:00,879 Speaker 1: up in the room experienced financiers, that's stay on the 748 00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:04,279 Speaker 1: course and apply the best practice. But you know you 749 00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:08,440 Speaker 1: rightly say so. You know CEFI has custody of users deposits, 750 00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:12,239 Speaker 1: and user are left trusting in these people running that 751 00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,720 Speaker 1: business to carry out the services for you and coming 752 00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:22,640 Speaker 1: back to you know, DEFY, you know, brilliant. Yeah, decentralized finance, right, 753 00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:26,200 Speaker 1: you know what happened with HPS is not possible happening 754 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:31,160 Speaker 1: on DeFi Why because it's computer code, it's smart contract 755 00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,040 Speaker 1: that provides the services offered. You keep your funds in 756 00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:38,480 Speaker 1: your own wallet and enter into peer to peer transaction 757 00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:43,520 Speaker 1: via a smart country there's no middlemen, there's no centralized authority. So, 758 00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,120 Speaker 1: you know, the event over the past few months making 759 00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:50,200 Speaker 1: really really clear to the whole industry and US builders 760 00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,640 Speaker 1: that we need more deference services. The goal of the 761 00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:58,200 Speaker 1: crypto is to eliminate the rest and the indefficiency in 762 00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:02,520 Speaker 1: traditional finance, right and to build a more efficient, decentralized, 763 00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,919 Speaker 1: open financial ecosystem, and the one that in a where 764 00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:09,799 Speaker 1: to put it simply, the need for trust is removed 765 00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,960 Speaker 1: and to cuoss Easy, the CEO of violence. You know, 766 00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:16,440 Speaker 1: DeFi is the end game, right, all right, and so 767 00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:19,239 Speaker 1: thank you so much for breaking that down force. We're 768 00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:22,160 Speaker 1: all still learning a lot about crypto in general and 769 00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:24,320 Speaker 1: kind of what went wrong at ft X in particular. 770 00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:33,080 Speaker 1: Shin Zoo Sue, she's CEO of ALEX, the automated Liquidity exchange. 771 00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,080 Speaker 1: This Federal Reserve has been clear this year about raising 772 00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,920 Speaker 1: interest rates to fight inflation. Rising interest rate environment has 773 00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:42,480 Speaker 1: had an impact on a broad variety of industries, not 774 00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:45,040 Speaker 1: the least of which is the housing industry. The housing 775 00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:48,560 Speaker 1: manufacturing business, uh really feeling the brunt of that. So 776 00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:51,400 Speaker 1: we want to get some color as to how that 777 00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:54,160 Speaker 1: business is dealing with this new environment. We turned to 778 00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,160 Speaker 1: Brian Fairbanks. He's the CEO of treks uh. It is 779 00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,480 Speaker 1: a New York Stock Exchange listed company. T r X, 780 00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:03,480 Speaker 1: not surprisingly, is the ticker to put into your Bloomberg terminal. 781 00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:08,400 Speaker 1: The manufacture non would decking alternative products, you know, all decking, railing, 782 00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:10,680 Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff that people do to their homes. Brian, 783 00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:14,279 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. Really appreciate it. Um, 784 00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:16,680 Speaker 1: tell us about your business. How is it faring? I know, 785 00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:18,520 Speaker 1: I'm just looking at the chart. The stocks down this 786 00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:21,120 Speaker 1: year is you know, one of those as many are, 787 00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:23,560 Speaker 1: but one of those sectors that doesn't really do well 788 00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:25,960 Speaker 1: with rising interest rates. But talk to us about the 789 00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:29,560 Speaker 1: the state of your business. Good morning, Matt and Paul. 790 00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,960 Speaker 1: Thanks for having me on this morning. The consumers for 791 00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:38,560 Speaker 1: outdoor living products have remained remarkably resilient over this year. 792 00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:43,280 Speaker 1: Past couple of years, we've grown quite significantly as people 793 00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:48,480 Speaker 1: have been spending more time expanding their existing living areas. 794 00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,319 Speaker 1: As we moved into this year, of course, we've seen 795 00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:55,279 Speaker 1: inflation start to catch up with the consumer. Prices of 796 00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,279 Speaker 1: our products have gone up as well. But what we've 797 00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:02,240 Speaker 1: seen is, rather than growing the year, the volume told 798 00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:06,279 Speaker 1: by our company is about flat was the prior prior year. 799 00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:08,720 Speaker 1: Uh and given the kind of growth that we've seen, 800 00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:12,040 Speaker 1: we're pretty pleased with that. So inflation has definitely been 801 00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:16,520 Speaker 1: an impact, but consumers are still flocking to the track's brand. 802 00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:21,920 Speaker 1: What about the stock I mean, the chart is pretty 803 00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:25,000 Speaker 1: amazing to behold. Um. As Paul said, you know, a 804 00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:28,239 Speaker 1: lot of companies got to run up in the reopening 805 00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,799 Speaker 1: um push at the end of last year and then 806 00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:34,680 Speaker 1: crater this year. But what happened in October and November, 807 00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:38,000 Speaker 1: I mean, it just took off from the span of 808 00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:42,759 Speaker 1: a few weeks. We were absolutely a beneficiary during the 809 00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:46,200 Speaker 1: pandemic run up. As we moved into the later stages 810 00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:50,719 Speaker 1: of the pandemic, we announced significant sales growth and then 811 00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:55,160 Speaker 1: adding additional capacity in Little Rock, Arkansas. And with that, 812 00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:57,759 Speaker 1: the market may have gotten a little bit ahead of 813 00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:01,279 Speaker 1: itself in the back half of this year. Coming out 814 00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:05,319 Speaker 1: of our second quarter earnings, we announced that we would 815 00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:07,640 Speaker 1: be reducing the back half of the year by about 816 00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:11,880 Speaker 1: two hundred million dollars to take into account inventory that 817 00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:14,320 Speaker 1: had been built in the channel. You heard me mentioned 818 00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:18,160 Speaker 1: earlier that are sales to consumer have been flat year 819 00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,719 Speaker 1: every year, but our channel did build assuming that they 820 00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:27,320 Speaker 1: would grow fifteen in two and we felt that we 821 00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:31,640 Speaker 1: should be aggressive get that inventory normalized so that we 822 00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:35,319 Speaker 1: can start with the right level of inventories moving into 823 00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,480 Speaker 1: So talk to us about the competitive nature of your 824 00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:43,320 Speaker 1: business here. You know how fragmented it is in where 825 00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:46,040 Speaker 1: what is your position? How do you think about market 826 00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:51,000 Speaker 1: share in your business? Compositicking and railing is a very 827 00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:55,440 Speaker 1: unique business. There are three major players in the marketplace. 828 00:43:55,880 --> 00:44:00,160 Speaker 1: Trex has about market share, the number two competitor has 829 00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:05,120 Speaker 1: about market share, and the number three competitor has about 830 00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:11,680 Speaker 1: market share. So it is a consolidated industry and all 831 00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:17,200 Speaker 1: three of the competitors understand the value within the industry itself, 832 00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:21,680 Speaker 1: uh and we each make the other better in the industry. 833 00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,920 Speaker 1: So the sustainability side of it is that a benefit 834 00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:30,600 Speaker 1: um that consumers are that are into Absolutely thank you 835 00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:35,719 Speaker 1: for asking that. Trecks is very unique in that of 836 00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:38,160 Speaker 1: the content that we use in our deck boards is 837 00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:41,600 Speaker 1: recycled and reclaimed. The deck board is made of roughly 838 00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:47,080 Speaker 1: fift recycled plastic and the other is from reclaimed Would 839 00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:51,319 Speaker 1: we get that from furniture flooring and other manufacturers that 840 00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:55,840 Speaker 1: have wood scrap. So it's a very unique manufacturing environment 841 00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,880 Speaker 1: where we have a lot of variability going into the 842 00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:03,440 Speaker 1: plant with our ramic sial, but our manufacturing technology allows 843 00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:07,080 Speaker 1: us to strip out those that variability that comes through 844 00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:10,680 Speaker 1: in the raw material and create a very consistent, high 845 00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,480 Speaker 1: value added product at the end of the line. Well 846 00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:15,960 Speaker 1: what does that chain look like? It's so fascinating to 847 00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:19,960 Speaker 1: me because well, right now, um, we've just come out 848 00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:22,799 Speaker 1: of COP twenty seven, right or maybe people are still 849 00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:26,800 Speaker 1: there in Charmel Shake talking about this, you know, global 850 00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:30,680 Speaker 1: plastic problem and here you are. You found, um here 851 00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:34,400 Speaker 1: in the US at least one one small solution doing 852 00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:37,080 Speaker 1: kind of your part. Where do you get the plastic? 853 00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:39,920 Speaker 1: You know, what are the prices like? Um, how do 854 00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:43,040 Speaker 1: you how do you put that all together? RECs has 855 00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:47,520 Speaker 1: been using recycled content in our product since day one, 856 00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:50,120 Speaker 1: and we've been in business for over thirty years now, 857 00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:53,520 Speaker 1: so it's part of the culture of this organization to 858 00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:57,120 Speaker 1: be doing green solutions. The push for e s G 859 00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:00,600 Speaker 1: over the past years has been a benefit where more 860 00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:04,640 Speaker 1: material has become available on the market. We are the 861 00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:10,120 Speaker 1: largest buyer of polyethylene films in the marketplace and we 862 00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,480 Speaker 1: will source from all over the country and up into Canada, 863 00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:17,279 Speaker 1: will ship to one of our two existing manufacturing locations 864 00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:21,239 Speaker 1: and eventually a third one in Arkansas. From there, we 865 00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:24,640 Speaker 1: can run that material either direct to our manufacturing line 866 00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:29,760 Speaker 1: or we will send it through other processing manufacturing operations 867 00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:34,520 Speaker 1: to create a more consistent product for our decking. So 868 00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:37,680 Speaker 1: Brian talked to us about labor. You know, every business 869 00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:42,480 Speaker 1: we talked to just challenging to attract and retain labor. 870 00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:45,920 Speaker 1: What's it like in your business during the midst of 871 00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:49,480 Speaker 1: the pandemic, we were adding a significant amount of capacity 872 00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:53,440 Speaker 1: while most organizations were just fighting to hold onto their 873 00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:58,640 Speaker 1: existing labor. We were having to add about more heads 874 00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:02,960 Speaker 1: to our overall operations, and we were effective in doing that. 875 00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:06,400 Speaker 1: It's fair to say it was quite a challenge. Since 876 00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:10,239 Speaker 1: earlier this year, we've seen much more stability in the 877 00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:14,000 Speaker 1: labor marketplace, and I expect that will continue as we 878 00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:17,760 Speaker 1: go forward. Uh and we have we don't have nearly 879 00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:21,520 Speaker 1: the same growth requirements at this point from a labor 880 00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:25,200 Speaker 1: need perspective. Brian, great talking to you, Thanks so much 881 00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:28,880 Speaker 1: for joining us. Brian Fairbanks, there is the CEO of Treks. 882 00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:34,160 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 883 00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:37,960 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever 884 00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:41,720 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 885 00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:45,800 Speaker 1: at Matt Miller. P On Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter 886 00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:48,720 Speaker 1: at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch 887 00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:50,320 Speaker 1: us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio