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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of this show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: dot com.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for

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Speaker 1: everybody today. What do we have, Crystal, indeed we do.

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Speaker 2: So we are not spending the entire show on tariffs,

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Speaker 2: but we are spending just the fast show. I'm deriff,

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Speaker 2: so we're going to give you the very latest. Trump

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Speaker 2: made a bunch of comments yesterday where the markets are

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Speaker 2: all that good stuff.

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Speaker 4: We've also gotten your reporting.

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Speaker 2: Apparently, Elon Musk and Scott Bessett made personal appeals to

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Speaker 2: Trump Bessett to change the messaging on tariffs. Elon musk

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Speaker 2: to change the actual reality of the tariffs. We're taking

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Speaker 2: a deep dive into China's response and what that could

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Speaker 2: mean for them and for us and for the world.

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Speaker 2: CEO of a clothing company is joining us to break

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Speaker 2: down specifically just nuts and bolts, how he's the ame

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Speaker 2: out the terrors, how it will impact his business, so

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Speaker 2: we can get kind of like the granular real world

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Speaker 2: impact in the sense of that. At same time, Baby

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Speaker 2: was at the White House yesterday. Yes, Trump pushed his

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Speaker 2: chair in for him. No worry, it's all taken care of.

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Speaker 2: This comes on the same day that we learned that

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Speaker 2: the Israeli killed an American citizen in the West Bank.

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Speaker 4: So there's obviously a lot to discuss there.

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Speaker 2: Trump also announced in that set that same he wasn't

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Speaker 2: calling it a press conference.

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Speaker 1: Whatever, he called it edible offspring.

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Speaker 2: He announced direct talks with Iron So this comes at

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Speaker 2: a time of deep concern that we could be headed

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Speaker 2: towards a war. So maybe maybe this is an off ramp.

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Speaker 2: We can all be really hopeful about that. And the

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Speaker 2: Supreme Court handed the Trump administration a big win yesterday

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Speaker 2: on the Alien Enemies Act. YouTuber Piasco, who happens to

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Speaker 2: also be an attorney with deep knowledge of these issues

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Speaker 2: going to join us to break down what exactly this

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Speaker 2: ruling means, both for the peace people who are already

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Speaker 2: in now Salvador and for the future of the Trump

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Speaker 2: administration's use of this controversial approach.

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Speaker 4: So a lot to get to. As I said in

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Speaker 4: the show today.

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Speaker 3: Yes, that's right, jam packed. But thank you, by the way,

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Speaker 3: to all of our premium subscribers. We really appreciate you,

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Speaker 3: and you guys got a taste of what some of

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Speaker 3: it looks like. We had our Ama yesterday where we

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Speaker 3: fell for the trolling from mister Walter Bloomberg, who's a

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Speaker 3: completely bake account. But we all lived that together live,

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Speaker 3: and so that's what you're missing out on. Although we

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Speaker 3: did post a little bit of preview breaking Points dot com.

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Speaker 3: If you can't afford a premium membership or anything like that,

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Speaker 3: don't worry. You can just help us, like and subscribe

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Speaker 3: the video or take this podcast if you're listening to it,

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Speaker 3: send it to a friend. It's really helpful. Take your

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Speaker 3: favorite episode, maybe the Yesterday's the Tariff episode. I thought

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Speaker 3: that one was particularly good. As Crystal said, let's go

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Speaker 3: ahead and get to the tariffs. Some major comments from

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump doubling down, tripling down, quadrupling down, despite a

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Speaker 3: lot of the cope that is out there right now.

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Speaker 3: While he was in the Oval Office, here's what he

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Speaker 3: had to say, Well.

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Speaker 5: We're not looking at that. We have many, many countries

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Speaker 5: that are coming to negotiate deals with us, and they're

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Speaker 5: going to be fair deals. We're going to have one

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Speaker 5: shot at this, and no other president's going to do

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Speaker 5: this what I'm doing. And I'll tell you what, it's

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Speaker 5: an honor to do it because we have been just

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Speaker 5: just destroyed what they've done to our system. Tending millions

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Speaker 5: and millions of cars into the US. But we don't

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Speaker 5: have a car that's been sold to the European Union

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Speaker 5: or other places. But let's go for the European Union.

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Speaker 5: And it's not going to be that way. It's got

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Speaker 5: to be fair and reciprocal. It's got to be fair.

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Speaker 5: It's not fair. If you look at what's happening, you're

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Speaker 5: going to see this today. I said, we're going to

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Speaker 5: try and get groceries down right, an old fashioned term,

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Speaker 5: but a beautiful term. Eggs. So when I got in

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Speaker 5: the press went absolutely crazy. The first week they said

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Speaker 5: eggs have quadrupled in price. I said, I just got here,

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Speaker 5: tell me about it. And Brooke Rowlins and our team

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Speaker 5: did agree. Job and eggs are down now seventy nine

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Speaker 5: percent and they're all over the place.

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Speaker 6: Do you expect any of these deals to be made

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Speaker 6: before April ninth? And secondly, there's been some mixed messages

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Speaker 6: from your administration. You're talking about negotiations and yet others

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Speaker 6: in your administration are saying that these tariffs are actually permanent.

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Speaker 5: What is that actually, Well, they can both be true.

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Speaker 5: That can be permanent tariffs and they can also be

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Speaker 5: negotiations because there are things that we need beyond tariffs.

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Speaker 5: We need open borders. You know, we almost had to

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Speaker 5: deal with China.

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Speaker 1: They can be permanent or they can be held for negotiating.

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Speaker 2: They can be permanent and they can be negotiations. That

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Speaker 2: clears that up.

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Speaker 3: For us as part of the problem. That's why the

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Speaker 3: markets are all over the place. We can go ahead

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Speaker 3: and put the current screenshot of the markets. The current

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Speaker 3: s and P five hundred futures are up some two

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Speaker 3: point five percent, and the Japanese nik Index rallied about

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Speaker 3: six percent last Night on the hopes of tariff relief.

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Speaker 3: But the thing is is that the message is incredibly

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Speaker 3: unclear and everybody is just completely grasping for because for

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Speaker 3: all of the talk of negotiation from Secretary Besent from

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump, there there's also the undertone of also, it

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Speaker 3: may not matter at all, and what the timeline of

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Speaker 3: that obviously still has massive ramifications as all of these

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Speaker 3: tariffs continue to come into place. For example, if you're

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Speaker 3: a country and you're watching Peter Navarro talk about the

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Speaker 3: removal of reciprocal tariffs from say Vietnam, you really have

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Speaker 3: no idea what to do.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to that.

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Speaker 7: When you have a country like Vietna. Let's take Vietnam.

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Speaker 8: When they come to us and say we'll go to

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Speaker 8: zero tariffs, that means nothing to us because it's the

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Speaker 8: non tariff cheating that matters. Let's do Vietnam, Joe, they

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Speaker 8: sell us fifteen dollars for every one dollar we sell LAMB.

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Speaker 8: About five dollars of that fifteen is China transshipping to

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Speaker 8: Vietnam to evade their tariffs.

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Speaker 2: What we're all trying to understand is then if there

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Speaker 2: are going to be negotiations, and you're saying zero is

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Speaker 2: not enough?

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Speaker 9: What is enough?

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Speaker 8: Zero is a small first start?

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Speaker 1: Okay, then what is enough? And let me ask you

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Speaker 1: but related to them, well, let me.

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Speaker 8: Answer that question.

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Speaker 7: Let me answer. Let's take them one at a time.

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Speaker 7: We got plenty of time. So what is enough? Okay?

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Speaker 8: You take any given country that are like fingerprints. They

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Speaker 8: all cheat us in a different way. So here are

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Speaker 8: the things they cheat us on. Some of them engage

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Speaker 8: in currency manipulation. Some of them have a hefty vat tex.

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Speaker 8: All of them dump into our markets. All of them

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Speaker 8: engage in heavy export subsidies and government subsidies. All of

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Speaker 8: them put up these phony technical and fido sanitary barriers

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Speaker 8: to our ag products and our autos and everything in between.

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Speaker 8: Many of them steal our intellectual property. A lot of

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Speaker 8: them runs sweatshop labor, including forced child labor. They have

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Speaker 8: pollution havens. So when you say to me, ed, what

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Speaker 8: do we want from them?

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Speaker 3: We want fairness, So negotiation and zero is not enough.

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Speaker 1: This is the difficulty. Now what are we doing here?

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Speaker 3: I would also point out, yes, it is true Vietnam

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Speaker 3: is a haven of transhipping. Part of the problem is

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Speaker 3: that we actually told companies were like, don't produce in China,

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Speaker 3: you should go to Vietnam.

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Speaker 1: Yeah's part of the reason.

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Speaker 3: One at that situation, we literally wanted that to happen

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Speaker 3: because Vietnam is a much better ally to us and

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Speaker 3: actually has pretty good relations.

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Speaker 2: So now what Another example of that is Apple has

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Speaker 2: moved some significant portion of their iPhone manufacturing to India.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I know, same.

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Speaker 2: Reason, because they were, Okay, you guys aren't happy with China.

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Speaker 4: We got it, we got it.

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Speaker 2: India's an ally, We'll move some of our production there.

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Speaker 2: India got hit while they're like fifty percent tariffs as well.

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Speaker 1: Tariff that's right.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean all of this, many of these

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Speaker 2: dynamics were actually created by intentional American policy to move

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Speaker 2: manufacturing out of China to other allies. And now it's like, okay,

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Speaker 2: well they're going to have huge tariffs as well. You

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Speaker 2: could see from the stock market they are clearly betting

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Speaker 2: that Trump is bluffing. They are betting that no, he

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Speaker 2: doesn't really mean it when he says that they're you know, permanent.

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Speaker 2: And this is, by the way, according to the reporting

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Speaker 2: from Jeff Stein, from Andrew ross Erkin, from other people,

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Speaker 2: who are talking to, you know, people in and around

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Speaker 2: Trump's orbit. He's saying the same things publicly that he's

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Speaker 2: saying privately. He's saying, no, I don't intend to roll

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Speaker 2: these all back. And not only do you have Peter

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Speaker 2: Navarro there who says, no, zero percent tariffs.

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Speaker 4: That's not good enough, that's not good enough.

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Speaker 2: You also had Trump in that press conference saying the

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Speaker 2: EU had offered zero for zero tariffs, also not good enough.

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Speaker 2: So I'm not sure what gives them the confidence that

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Speaker 2: they feel like he's imminently going to, you know, announce

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Speaker 2: some oh fifty countries have made a deal and look

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Speaker 2: at these amazing things that I want.

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Speaker 4: Maybe maybe they're right.

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Speaker 2: It's certainly possible Trump has put tariffs on and backed off,

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Speaker 2: you know, in just the past few months we have

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Speaker 2: seen this all play out. But I do think the

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Speaker 2: market is not pricing in enough uncertainty about how Trump

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Speaker 2: may ultimately handle this, because I think he's loving all

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Speaker 2: of it.

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Speaker 4: I think she loves being in the what.

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Speaker 2: Are they call it, the catbird seat and having all

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Speaker 2: of these people have to come to him, and CEO's

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Speaker 2: calling him and begging for relief and trying to petition,

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Speaker 2: the king and all of these countries blowing up his phone.

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Speaker 4: He loves this. So, like I said, we'll see.

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Speaker 2: I also think it's important to keep in mind, you know,

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Speaker 2: in the same way that Trump after like he does

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Speaker 2: January sixth, he basically gets away with it. He has

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Speaker 2: all these criminal charges, he's found guilty of multiple felonies,

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Speaker 2: he still gets elected president of the United States.

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Speaker 4: He has zero f's to give.

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Speaker 2: Like he thinks, all these people told me I was

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Speaker 2: wrong before and they were proven wrong, and here I am,

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Speaker 2: and they don't know anything. And rather than having people like,

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Speaker 2: you know, a serious people like Bob Littheiser in there,

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Speaker 2: he has like clowns like Howard Letnox. So he intentionally

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Speaker 2: constructed a circle that was never going to tell him

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Speaker 2: no on anything that he's ultimately doing. And Peter Rovarro

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Speaker 2: probably has a similar mindset. I mean, this is man

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Speaker 2: who was in prison for contempt for refusing to testify

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Speaker 2: to Congress about again January sixth. So he has really

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Speaker 2: emerged as the most sort of like ideological, hard line

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Speaker 2: pro tariff figure within the Trump administration. And so I

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Speaker 2: think his mentality probably plays into this dynamic as well.

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Speaker 1: There's no question. I mean Navarro.

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Speaker 3: Also, people need to remember the origins of the first term.

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Speaker 3: He was effectively banned from the Oval office for almost

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Speaker 3: a year the first year of the Trump administration, when

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Speaker 3: Trump really handed a lot of the reins over to

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Speaker 3: Jared Kushner, to Gary Kohne, to a lot of those

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Speaker 3: types of folks which did everything they could to keep

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Speaker 3: him out of that, out of the decision making process.

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Speaker 3: Even during COVID there was a lot of Navarro efforts

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Speaker 3: to try and to bring some manufacturing not have so

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Speaker 3: much reliance on PPE and personal protective equipment for hospitals, ventilators,

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Speaker 3: things like that. Jared Kusher completely put the kybosh on that.

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Speaker 3: Will Kusher's not here at this time around, neither is

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Speaker 3: Gary Cohne. Trump does see a central failure of his

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Speaker 3: presidency to not be able to many of those first

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Speaker 3: things in the first term, and so he wants to listen.

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Speaker 3: And then second is I have noticed this the best

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Speaker 3: way for people like Navarro and others Bannon, etc. They

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Speaker 3: can everything can be forgiven if you were willing to

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Speaker 3: back him on stop the steal. In the two cases,

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Speaker 3: those two cases I just mentioned, they literally went to

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Speaker 3: jail basically, rather than to turn and to try testify

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Speaker 3: against Donald Trump. There can really be no greater expression

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Speaker 3: of literal loyalty. At the same time, what the markets

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Speaker 3: are hoping and grabbing onto right now is this right here,

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Speaker 3: let's put it up there on the screen. So Secretary

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Speaker 3: Bessant apparently flew to Florida to lobby Donald Trump on

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Speaker 3: the tariff message over the weekend, and this explains some

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Speaker 3: of the talk that we saw yesterday. Secretary Besson urged

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Speaker 3: Trump quote to focus his message on negotiating favorable deals

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Speaker 3: or risk the stock market creating further Bessant, who quote

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Speaker 3: landed with the President White House on Marine one Sunday night,

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Speaker 3: told Trump that Mark Kid would remain in peril unless

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Speaker 3: he started putting more emphasis on talking about his endgame

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Speaker 3: with the tariffs winning deals with other countries. So that's

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Speaker 3: part of the reason at least the word negotiation has

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Speaker 3: crept back up into the White House lexicon yesterday. But

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Speaker 3: it's one of those where it's so muddled that people

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Speaker 3: really are grasping at something I do not see right now.

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Speaker 3: For example, they've said, oh, well, we've had all see

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Speaker 3: we've had leaders of seventy some countries call the White House.

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Speaker 1: First of all, it sounds super inefficient.

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Speaker 3: But the second is, how are you going to get

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Speaker 3: this resolved on a reasonable enough timeframe?

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Speaker 1: I want people to understand the stake.

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Speaker 3: So a friend of mine, Ryan Peterson, the Flexport guy,

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Speaker 3: the CEO of Flexport, you know, he just revealed yesterday.

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Speaker 3: Quote on April seventeenth, the US Trade Representative's Office is

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Speaker 3: expected to impose fees of one point five million per

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Speaker 3: port call for ships made in China, and for five

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Speaker 3: hundred thousand to a million if an ocean carrier carries

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Speaker 3: a single ship made in China, or even one has

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Speaker 3: on order from a Chinese shipyard. Now, who does anyone

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Speaker 3: want to guess how many ocean containers ships were built

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Speaker 3: by the United States of America last year?

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Speaker 1: The answer is zero, Just so everybody knows.

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Speaker 3: Quote, there are actually only twenty three American made and

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Speaker 3: crude container ships in the entire world today. They are

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Speaker 3: all servicing domestic ocean freight. They are quote tiny compared

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Speaker 3: to today's mega ships, and they are not even allowed to.

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Speaker 1: Sail to overseas ports.

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Speaker 3: So what do you think is going to happen if

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Speaker 3: you make a company pay a million five every time

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Speaker 3: they dock.

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Speaker 1: What are you gonna do.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna dock less or no, or you're gonna dock once.

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Speaker 3: So what does that mean? That means a lot of

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Speaker 3: these smaller ports, Baltimore and a few others. Yeah, see

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Speaker 3: you longshoremen, good luck. I hope that you enjoy not working.

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Speaker 4: They'll just go to one big port. They're gonna to

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Speaker 4: l truck everything.

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Speaker 1: Even worse, what happened during COVID.

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Speaker 3: Does anyone remember all of that nightmare in the Port

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Speaker 3: of Los Angeles.

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Speaker 4: That's what was in part massive inflation.

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Speaker 1: Massive inflation.

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Speaker 3: So it's like you can see this stuff coming from

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Speaker 3: a mile away and guess what, guys, that's coming in

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Speaker 3: nine days. Does anybody think that that is going to

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Speaker 3: be solved in nine days? And this is a country China,

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Speaker 3: which has actually called our bluff multiple times. We're about

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Speaker 3: to talk about this in a little bit on China.

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Speaker 3: I think what I would really hope everybody from the

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Speaker 3: show can take away is to get away with the

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Speaker 3: boomer mindset of these are some backwards No, no, no,

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Speaker 3: We're dealing with a hyper sophisticated global powerhouse, one that

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Speaker 3: has levers of power that we could only dream of

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Speaker 3: in the United States of America. And so when I

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Speaker 3: look at this and then I see the President talking

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Speaker 3: about a one hundred and four percent tariff that is

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Speaker 3: going to be played not only on all Chinese goods,

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Speaker 3: but then this one point five million dollar port call,

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Speaker 3: I am looking at a literal mass explosion of supply

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Speaker 3: chain disruption, you know, COVID level supply inflate, supply side inflation.

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Speaker 3: And then also, do we not want more union worker jobs,

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Speaker 3: not just in Los Angeles.

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Speaker 1: I want them in Baltimore right over here.

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Speaker 4: That's right, we don't.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna skip it, and no one's gonna say, oh,

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Speaker 3: you're giving into the Chinese guys again.

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Speaker 1: You know, the problem is we have not spent any

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Speaker 1: money building.

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Speaker 3: Ships or boosting our shipyard industry for thirty five years.

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Speaker 3: They have been pouring money into They beat us just

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Speaker 3: because they paid for it. We can't just come in

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Speaker 3: at the very last minute and be like, oh, sorry,

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Speaker 3: you know, all thirty five years of rectifying decision or

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Speaker 3: you know, bad decisions and all of that, we expect

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Speaker 3: all of this stuff to open. Do you know how

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Speaker 3: long it even takes to build a ship. I'm telling

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Speaker 3: I beg people to go and look at these things.

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Speaker 3: I took a trip once down to the Panama Canal.

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Speaker 3: You can't even wrap your head around how big some

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Speaker 3: of these mega container ships are. Some of us so

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Speaker 3: big they still can't fit through the canal.

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Speaker 2: That's what we're talking about, saying yeah, and I mean listen,

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Speaker 2: you're still also relying on capitalists to take a look

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Speaker 2: at that, you know, state of affairs and be like, oh,

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Speaker 2: that makes me really want to manufacture in the US. Like,

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Speaker 2: first of all, as we've discussed at nauseum at this point,

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Speaker 2: like with the on again off against guys of madmen,

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Speaker 2: the next administration may do total something totally different no

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Speaker 2: one is going to And also courting a global recession,

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Speaker 2: like a lot of big investments don't really get made

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Speaker 2: in when you have a recessionary environment and you know,

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Speaker 2: the chaos of it means that, yeah, everybody is just

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Speaker 2: going to freeze into place. So when you don't pair

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Speaker 2: it with any sort of concerted government spending and directed

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Speaker 2: effort at industrial policy to you know, strongly encourage the

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Speaker 2: capitalists to do the thing you want them to do,

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Speaker 2: then you are unlikely to get the results that you want,

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Speaker 2: because you can't just wave a magic wand and suddenly

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Speaker 2: there are a bunch of American containerships. Also with regard

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Speaker 2: to that, I saw that yesterday and it also triggered

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Speaker 2: for me like, okay, okay, Well, that does not seem

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Speaker 2: like an administration that is ready to back off of

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Speaker 2: their maximalist, like terrorist protectionist position. That seems like an

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Speaker 2: administration like a president who is all in on this direction.

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Speaker 2: So you know, again, look, maybe the Wall Street maybe

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Speaker 2: they're going to be right. Maybe they're going to prove

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Speaker 2: Jeff Stine wrong for once. By the way, there were

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Speaker 2: people in Jeff Stein's timeline yesterday who were like, thank you.

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Speaker 2: You know, I saw youim breaking points and I listened

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Speaker 2: to you, and I saved a bunch of money by

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Speaker 2: you know, moving things around or taking money out of

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Speaker 2: the stock market, et cetera. But maybe this time Justine

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Speaker 2: is going to be wrong and the Wall streeters are

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Speaker 2: going to be right.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know where.

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Speaker 4: They're getting their confidence.

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Speaker 2: A couple last things we have the Larry Fink he

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Speaker 2: uh sounded off about how you know, he thinks very

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Speaker 2: likely we are all ready in a recession. This is

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Speaker 2: the CEO of Black Rock. Let's go ahead and take

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Speaker 2: a listen to what he has to say.

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Speaker 7: Are we.

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Speaker 1: Headed for recession? Are we in a recession?

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Speaker 7: You know, most CEOs I talked to.

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Speaker 5: I would say we are probably in a recession right now,

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Speaker 5: right now, right now.

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Speaker 2: And it's not just him, so he says most, not

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Speaker 2: just him, most CEOs I talk to think we are

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Speaker 2: in a recession right now. You can rust shure. This

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Speaker 2: is a man who talks to a lot of CEOs.

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Speaker 2: Let's put this CNBC to They're like pulling of their

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Speaker 2: the CEOs that are in their network. Once CEO said,

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Speaker 2: this is the Trump recession with tarff price increases, job

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Speaker 2: losses coming, and a majority of the CEOs that they

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Speaker 2: reached out to sixty nine percent expect a recession.

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Speaker 4: Three quarters of.

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Speaker 2: Those CEOs expect a recession to be moderate or mild,

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Speaker 2: So they're not saying great depression kind of thing, but

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Speaker 2: rather than severe. But you know, this still is an

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Speaker 2: extremely pessimistic view of the economy and directly directly attributable

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Speaker 2: to the policy decisions of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: Yes, and this also right now you might say, don't

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Speaker 3: you hate black Rock and all each other people. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: but guess what they are? The market, Larry Fink literally

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Speaker 3: is the market. So we should listen to what because again,

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Speaker 3: you may not like these people. You may like to

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Speaker 3: see him cry, and I think that's great as long

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Speaker 3: as it doesn't affect you. But the problem is and

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Speaker 3: the way that our world is set up today, specifically

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Speaker 3: our country, our capital markets, those people when they say

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Speaker 3: there's a recession, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Those

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Speaker 3: people are going to go from ten billion to five

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Speaker 3: You're going to go from what negative five to minus

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Speaker 3: five thousand, And that's a lot more dismaying for a

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Speaker 3: lot of people.

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Speaker 1: That are out there.

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Speaker 2: All right, So let's dig in specifically on China. This

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Speaker 2: is obviously a major part of the dynamic here, major

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Speaker 2: impetus for the launching of this trade war. And Trump

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Speaker 2: issued this on true social yesterday. Let's put it up

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Speaker 2: on the screen, he says, yesterday China issued retaliatory tariffs

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Speaker 2: of thirty four percent on top of they're already record

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Speaker 2: setting tariffs, non monetary tariffs, a legal subsidization. I can't

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Speaker 2: say that of companies and massive long term currency manipulation.

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Speaker 2: Despite my warning that any country that retalities against the

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Speaker 2: US by issuing additional tariffs above and beyond their already

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Speaker 2: existing long term tariff abuse of our nation will be

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Speaker 2: immediately met with new and substantially higher tariffs. Therefore, if

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Speaker 2: China does not withdraw is thirty four percent increase of

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Speaker 2: their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow that would

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Speaker 2: be today now April eighth, the US will impose additional

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Speaker 2: tariffs on China of fifty percent effective April ninth, that

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Speaker 2: would be tomorrow. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their

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Speaker 2: requested meetings with US will be terminated. Negotiations with other

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Speaker 2: countries which have also requested meetings will begin taking place immediately.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for your attention to this matter. So, Sagara,

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Speaker 2: assuming that these new tariffs on top of the original

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Speaker 2: tariffs go into place, you're talking about in more than

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent tariff.

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Speaker 1: One hundred and four specific yes.

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Speaker 2: Specifically one hundred and four percent on China.

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Speaker 3: Yes, man, that must be really tough actually for the enforcers,

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Speaker 3: because you can't just double it whenever you come to

440
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 3: the price, you actually have to multiply for the one

441
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 3: oh four sure, right, let's go through some of the things,

442
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 3: and this is again we need respect for China. We

443
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 3: can be in terms of on shoring and all of this,

444
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,439
Speaker 3: and we can acknowledge many of the sins of the

445
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 3: past about as stealing you know, technology, trade barriers, currency manipulation.

446
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 1: All of that is old news.

447
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 3: Now we are living in twenty twenty five in a

448
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 3: world where they have one of the world's best car companies,

449
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,479
Speaker 3: are a net manufacturer, a net exporterer, and have some

450
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,199
Speaker 3: of the best manufacturing high tech and low tech in

451
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 3: the entire world. So let's go and put this up

452
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 3: there on the screen from the Financial Times. I was

453
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 3: genuinely amazed reading through all of this. The Chinese know

454
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 3: exactly how to destroy us, and they have a whole

455
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 3: of government approach. They don't need to, you know, mess

456
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,400
Speaker 3: with the Federal Reserve, they don't have to deal with Congress.

457
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 3: They are basically doing everything we would want to do

458
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 3: if we wanted a coherent tariff strategy.

459
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 1: So let's start with the first thing.

460
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 3: Not only did they impose the thirty four percent reciprocal

461
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 3: tariff or sorry that yeah, thirty four percent in terms

462
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 3: of what we put into place, they immediately also held

463
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 3: back several things that they could use for maximum pain

464
00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 3: on the US. So first example is control of rare

465
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 3: earth minerals. Some ninety percent of rare earth minerals so

466
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 3: called rare earth minerals as Ryan likes to say, come

467
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,879
Speaker 3: from China, at the very least the finished refined products

468
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 3: over ninety percent, all of them coming to the United

469
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 3: States require an export license. Those export licenses, yeah, you

470
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 3: can basically say goodbye to that. If something like this

471
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 3: goes into effect, even with the tariff, they'll simply just

472
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 3: not export it. Number two, there was a theory that

473
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 3: this would destroy the domestic Chinese economy. Well, unlike this

474
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 3: stupid country, what are the Chinese doing? They're saying, Okay, well,

475
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 3: we control our central bank and it's all controlled by

476
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 3: a single entity, the CCP. We will then move to

477
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 3: immediately lower borrowing costs for all domestic business in China.

478
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 3: We will basically facilitate a boom in terms of liquid money.

479
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 3: Number two, we will pump as much money into the

480
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 3: domestic economy as necessary to boost domestic demand and spending,

481
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 3: and to make sure that our citizens do not have

482
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 3: a decrease in quality of life and the business circle

483
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,640
Speaker 3: remains squared. Those are all the things that they are

484
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 3: doing and can do like this, all of those we

485
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 3: have to rely on some you know, stage in the

486
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 3: Federal Reserve to wake up from his nap three months

487
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 3: from now, hope and pray. We also, if we want

488
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,360
Speaker 3: any stimulus, what do we have to wait for Mike Johnson. Yeah,

489
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,239
Speaker 3: I'm sure we're going to get on top of that.

490
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 1: Tomorrow.

491
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 4: They're going in the opposite.

492
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 3: We're actually going to cut it right exactly. So let's

493
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 3: think about who you would rather be. Would you rather

494
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 3: be the person who has like full control over your

495
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 3: entire economy, has deeply studied its enemy, who has studied

496
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 3: now four years of stupid sanctions on Russia, which is

497
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 3: the greatest training playbook in the history of mankind for

498
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 3: the Chinese. Or would you rather be you know, we

499
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,719
Speaker 3: just had this, or you're going to hear a segment

500
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 3: with Andrew Chan the country which mindlessly scrolls TikTok and

501
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 3: which buys Sian and Temu products and is literally addicted

502
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 3: to it.

503
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 1: I think I know which one I'd rather be.

504
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, which at the center of our social contract is

505
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 2: these cheap goods, Like our public has not been primed

506
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 2: you be willing to experience any pain around consumer goods.

507
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 2: As you know, I mean we saw in inflation how

508
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 2: much that urt people and how much of a major

509
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 2: political issue it became.

510
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 4: And socger to add to your list.

511
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 2: You know, another thing that the Chinese government has going

512
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 2: for it, and I fully understand this authoritarian government. It's

513
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 2: hard to know exactly what public opinion is, but Harvard

514
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 2: did a study of public sentiment visa VI the government,

515
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 2: and it's extremely popular. I'm talking like ninety five percent

516
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 2: saying either satisfied or highly satisfied. They have a lot

517
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 2: more unity around their government than obviously here. Trump is

518
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: very divisive, he is pretty he's quite unpopular, he's you know,

519
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 2: net underwater at this point. You have massive protests that

520
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 2: were happening in the streets last weekend. So you have

521
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 2: a society that is not at all bought in on

522
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 2: this project whatsoever. And you know, I think that also

523
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 2: gives them a tremendous advantage in terms of what they

524
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 2: can ask their public to accept. And you know, we also,

525
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 2: like I think a lot of our mental model are

526
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 2: very outdated. I was just thinking about the you know,

527
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 2: the example of BYD like BYD this giant Chinese automaker,

528
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 2: seller of evs globally and hybrid models as well, and

529
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 2: we don't buy it their cars like, they don't rely

530
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 2: on the US domestic market.

531
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:18,400
Speaker 4: And guess what.

532
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 2: BYD is growing like gangbusters and they are now selling

533
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,959
Speaker 2: more cars than Tesla does. In twenty twenty four, they

534
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 2: sold four point twenty seven million vehicles. So it is

535
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 2: an instance of Hey, guess what, they didn't need us.

536
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 2: They didn't need us for this company to be successful.

537
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 2: They didn't need us for this company to grow wildly,

538
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 2: and they have the whole rest of the world that

539
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 2: they can that they can sell to. And I think

540
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 2: your point about Russia is also really important one, just

541
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 2: in terms of how I've been thinking about this. You know,

542
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 2: every like mainstream economist thought that the devastating sanctions we

543
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 2: put on Russia would be so destructive to their economy.

544
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 2: I mean, we really tried to give them the financial

545
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 2: death penalty.

546
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 3: We don't even have tariffs on them because we have

547
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 3: no trade that's right. Yeah, we literally cut.

548
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 2: Them off all out economic warfare, yes against Russia, and

549
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 2: guess what, like, I'm not going to say it didn't

550
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 2: hurt them. And they also have the wartime economy to

551
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 2: help to compensate. But it did not end them. It

552
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 2: did not destroy them. They were able to figure it

553
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,199
Speaker 2: out because they had been thinking for a while and

554
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 2: planning for a while, knowing that we are fickle and

555
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,439
Speaker 2: that they are in an adversary, and knowing that this

556
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 2: eventuality could be playing out. China has also been thinking

557
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 2: and preparing and is in a much better position to

558
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 2: shoulder such an economic blow than Russia is. So I

559
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 2: think that if the Trump people think that they're going

560
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 2: to be able to bully and punish China into submission here,

561
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 2: I think they are completely wrong about.

562
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 1: One hundred percent. So let's return to the shipbuilding thing.

563
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,360
Speaker 3: I was thinking about a nice little statistic here from

564
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 3: our friend Arno. In twenty twenty four loan CSSC, the

565
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 3: Chinese State Shipbuilding Corporation, built more commercial ships by tonnage

566
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 3: than the entire US shipbuilding industry has built since the

567
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 3: end of World War Two.

568
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 1: Okay, so let's let that sit in.

569
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 3: Let's say that we have you know, this trade war

570
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 3: one point five million port call and America's shipbuilding industry,

571
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 3: which is defunct and basically rotting from rust. We're going

572
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 3: to spin that up miraculously over a five year period

573
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,159
Speaker 3: where we'll continue to produce nothing. As I said, in

574
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four, we produced not one. They produced more

575
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 3: in one year than we did for the entire period

576
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 3: of the last seventy five years, and we eventually miraculously

577
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:41,360
Speaker 3: are able to turn one out. We are still seventy

578
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 3: five years behind where they are now. This let's again

579
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 3: think about capital markets and efficient market hypotheses and all

580
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 3: of these other things. I will remind you of my

581
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,199
Speaker 3: favorite stat from Joe Eisenthal. The Hong Kong or the

582
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 3: Chinese Stock Exchange in Shanghai is flat to two thousand

583
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,400
Speaker 3: and nine. We are up over even with the dip

584
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 3: some one hundred to eighty percent just over the last

585
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:03,959
Speaker 3: five years.

586
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 1: Are you more.

587
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 3: Materially wealthy as a country by having that eighty percent

588
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 3: bump in the S and P five hundred? Obviously no.

589
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 3: We are a massive service based dominated economy. And I agree,

590
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 3: of course with the idea of bringing back manufacturing. However,

591
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 3: you cannot just simply flip a switch. The amount of

592
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 3: money it would require to reach even ten percent of

593
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 3: the CSSC's shipbuilding capacity would make Mike Johnson and Ran

594
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 3: Paul have a heart attack. That's just to reach ten percent.

595
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 3: They don't agree that's the truth. So if you don't agree,

596
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 3: then just simply condemn us, you know, to our current

597
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 3: fate of consuming only fans and pornography and sports betting

598
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 3: and Timu and Schian.

599
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 1: But don't do some half assed shit, which is the

600
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: worst work right now. Is now we're just going to

601
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 1: be poor and addicted.

602
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,719
Speaker 2: Poor, addicted, and your wages are going to be lower.

603
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: You're going to have less of a safety net. Like

604
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 2: it is the worst of all worlds. It's taking things

605
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 2: that were bad and making them worse. That's the direction

606
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 2: that they are headed in with all of this. We

607
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 2: have to say those they are borrowing some from Chinese thought.

608
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 2: There's some strong Mawist sentiments being expressed from the Treasury

609
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 2: Secretary himself, Scott Bessant. This was pretty entertaining to listen to.

610
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 2: He went on with Tucker Carlson, take a lism.

611
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 9: What we are doing on one side, the president is

612
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 9: reordering trade. On the other side, we are shedding excess

613
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 9: labor in the federal government and bringing down federal borrowings.

614
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 9: And then on the other side that will give us

615
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 9: the labor that we need for the new manufacturing, and

616
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 9: we're going to relever the private sector. So the private

617
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 9: sector in essence has been in recession during the Biden years,

618
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 9: and this is an opportunity to right size the federal

619
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 9: government and unleash the private sector again.

620
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,479
Speaker 2: So what he's talked about is how these federal government

621
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 2: workers who were laid off, you know, the people who

622
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 2: were like research and cancer or whatever, they can now

623
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 2: go to work in the new factories for being proct online,

624
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 2: which again very reminiscent of.

625
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:20,479
Speaker 1: The efforts to your cultural revolution.

626
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 2: Cultural revolution put the intellectuals and the scientists to the

627
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 2: re education camp, sent them into the factory. Of course,

628
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 2: to your point, there's no actual investment in creating those factories,

629
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 2: so the factories aren't actually going to come. It's just

630
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 2: going to mean we're going to have less cancer research

631
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 2: and people will be poor.

632
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, So it is funny, although if you read the

633
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 3: Three Body Problem, you do know that there are of

634
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 3: course benefits, as somebody who wants to aliens revealed to

635
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 3: be to the United States, so that that was the

636
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 3: only benefit of the Cultural Revolution from that book.

637
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: Sorry, I guess I just spoiled it. But whatever the

638
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 1: wor three it's it's been out since two thousand and six.

639
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: They made a Netflix document or a Netflix thing about it.

640
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 1: Get them. I can't get any more. But you should

641
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 1: read the book. Yeah, it's it's amazing.

642
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 3: And again, you know, even almost to defend Mao and

643
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 3: all these people, they even had a program at least

644
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 3: to facilitate that. They had the Red Arm you know

645
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 3: whatever it was called, that the Red Guards and others

646
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 3: to facilitate you know, the movement of these mass intellectuals

647
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 3: and state capacity, et cetera. And they had quotas and

648
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 3: they had a system. It didn't always work, obviously, you

649
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 3: had to come up.

650
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: With the fake things.

651
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 3: I do recommend if anybody ever wants to you should

652
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 3: read Ezra Vogel has a biography of Deng Xiaopang and

653
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 3: Dang specifically was purged and was one of these people

654
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 3: who was purged and actually sent to go work in

655
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 3: a factory and his period during the Cultural Revolution and

656
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 3: the Great Leap Forward is absolutely fascinating to actually go

657
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 3: and to study it eventually informed the modern Chinese model

658
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 3: of where we are today. So yes, if we would

659
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 3: like to repeat the mistakes of China.

660
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: I guess we can.

661
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 3: You know, maybe our Dang is somewhere out there. He's

662
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 3: a fired NIH worker who stitching. Was it screwing the

663
00:31:57,880 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 3: tiny little screw?

664
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 4: Yeahtle power bok into the iPhone?

665
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 1: Fifteen years from now, he will come and save us or.

666
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 2: She so well, he's going to be replaced by robots.

667
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 2: So anyway, Also, according to Unk.

668
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 1: Maybe we need an AI ding job. Honestly, we could

669
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 1: do worse than AI danger.

670
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 2: Listen, I'm coming around to the view that maybe we

671
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 2: do need to just accept our fate with THEI overlords

672
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 2: because the current human model is not going also all

673
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: that great in my personal estimation. But I mean, look, people,

674
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 2: I believe in humanity.

675
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 4: It's a joke.

676
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,479
Speaker 3: I believe in humanity. I believe in democracy. But you

677
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 3: can't help but look at the Chinese model and be like,

678
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 3: this is obviously better, Like it's obviously working better than

679
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 3: what we have right here. I'm not saying it would

680
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: work here, obviously, wouldn't. We don't have one billion Han

681
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 3: Chinese seventy five or what more eighty years of psyop

682
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 3: population to believe in all this, We're not not ethnically

683
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 3: the same yes, there, we don't have a ten thousand

684
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 3: year history or whatever two thousand year history of civilization

685
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 3: and all that said, you can clearly see that there

686
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 3: are major advantages to this like well executed authoritarian model,

687
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 3: and that when we're going going up against them with

688
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 3: a lot of the weaknesses that we have as a

689
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 3: result of like degenerate capitalism, that we really are like

690
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 3: the caricature in some ways of what they think of

691
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 3: us and how they justify their authoritarianism over their population.

692
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 3: If you look at many of the results, our own

693
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 3: consumer results are entertainment results. What Americans smen to choose

694
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 3: to do their time. Obesity, you know, like the constant

695
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 3: chase of dopamine hits. Like that is what this country

696
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 3: is ultimately all about. I was really thinking about that

697
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 3: with cars, like what distinguishes the American car jeeps, which

698
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 3: are pieces of shit with coolers and heated seats that

699
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 3: are gigantic that break down.

700
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 1: Every two to three years.

701
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're big, they're comfy, they have all these dumb

702
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 3: ass features, tailgating seats right that they charge you seventy

703
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 3: five thousand dollars and somebody who makes sixty grand years like, yeah,

704
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 3: let me get a twenty five percent EIGHTPR on that,

705
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 3: and I'll pay the monthly at a bare minimum rate

706
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 3: for the next four hundred and twenty months.

707
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: I'm not even making this shit up. This is reality.

708
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 3: This is literally what America what it looks like. Or

709
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 3: you know, you could have something different, but.

710
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 2: Well, I will steal Ryan's point is, like, listen, one

711
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 2: of the reasons I love this country is like our rights,

712
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:13,959
Speaker 2: like the freedom of speech, and increasingly like you can't

713
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 2: feel comfortable to speak out on some key issues like,

714
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 2: for example, Israel Palestine and think that that right is

715
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 2: still intact. So if we're going to not even have that, like,

716
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 2: what are what are we doing here? What are we

717
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 2: getting out of this arrangement? At this point, let's go

718
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:35,840
Speaker 2: ahead and get to some of the cracks maybe that

719
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,760
Speaker 2: are emerging in the MAGA coalition.

720
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 4: We could put the first one up on the scrade.

721
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,360
Speaker 2: This is certainly the biggest deal with regard to you know,

722
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 2: who has the most power with Trump at this point.

723
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 2: Washington Post reporting that Elon Musk made direct appeals to

724
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:54,879
Speaker 2: Trump to reverse sweeping new tariffs over the weekend as

725
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 2: he was launching a barrage.

726
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:57,799
Speaker 4: They say, a social media post.

727
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 2: We covered this yesterday, criticizing Peter Navarro, one of the

728
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 2: lead White House advisors for President Trump's aggressive tarra plan.

729
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 2: Musk was going over that same officials head and making

730
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 2: personal appeals to Trump. They attempted intervention, confirmed by two

731
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 2: people familiar, has not brought success so far, no kidding.

732
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 2: Trump threatened Monday to add new fifty percent tariffs on

733
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 2: imports from China, which we also just covered. Musk meanwhile

734
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 2: posted a video to x in which the late conservative

735
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 2: economists Milton Friedman, how did the benefits of international trade

736
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,840
Speaker 2: cooperation the impersonal operation of prices, as he put it,

737
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 2: breaking down the sources of the materials that go into

738
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 2: a simple wooden pencil. They go on to say that

739
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 2: this is of course the highest profile disagreement between the

740
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 2: president and one of his key advisors. So, you know, Musk,

741
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 2: as we point it out yesterday, has been kind of

742
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 2: like posting a little passive aggressively on Twitter about this.

743
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 2: We've known that he's look, he's the he was praising

744
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,839
Speaker 2: Malay previously for rolling back tariffs. He said that thing

745
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 2: publicly about how he wants there to be zero tariffs

746
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 2: between the US and the EU and apparently is also

747
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 2: trying to his pitch directly to the precedent's Yeah, are

748
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 2: hitting his heat against the brick wall at this point.

749
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 3: Look, he's his problem is that Trump only cares about

750
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 3: a few things.

751
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 1: Basically. Actually it may even be one. I'm not even

752
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 1: particularly convinced he cares all that much about immigration.

753
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 2: But whenever I think he thinks that's politically beneficial for.

754
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 1: Him, yeah, does not. He does not actually pay attention.

755
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 4: He owntsources that to Steve Stephen.

756
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 3: Miller and to Tom Homan, and he's like, you guys,

757
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 3: do a good job, and I'll back you up rhetorically,

758
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 3: even though our deportations are basically flat to wherever the

759
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 3: Joe Biden administration. But on trade, it's like the one

760
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 3: thing that he does care about. So he's not going

761
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 3: to listen to Elon and Elon confused that, you know,

762
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 3: with Doge. As we said before, Trump never cares particularly

763
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 3: about Doge.

764
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: It's all rhetorically useful.

765
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,720
Speaker 3: Coalitionally, he can see there's some people who are jazzed

766
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 3: up about it.

767
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 1: He's like, yeah, okay, well.

768
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 4: He likes that the Libs are freaking out.

769
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 1: I got it.

770
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 2: That's all they know he feels like the bureaucracy was

771
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 2: opposed to him, so he feels like this is an

772
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 2: enemy that's being sort of like defenestrated by Elon.

773
00:36:59,080 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 4: So it's useful for.

774
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 1: Him bingo exactly this time around.

775
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 3: Though, And actually we shouldn't rule out Elon's ego in

776
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 3: this either. Guess who's nobody's talking about right now, Elon,

777
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:12,760
Speaker 3: unless it's as a what tertiary story to the tariffs?

778
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 3: Doge is like what you know, for people to pay

779
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 3: attention to politics, It's like, we're not even paying attention

780
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 3: to dose right now.

781
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 1: We should.

782
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 3: It will come back, I can guarantee you that. But

783
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,879
Speaker 3: that just feels like a very been there, done that thing.

784
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 3: And if anyway, if anything, this is Trump reasserting himself

785
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:33,399
Speaker 3: into his own presidency, but in a sense doing it

786
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 3: and not only what I think will eventually become a

787
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 3: very unpopular and poisonous move for his own presidency, but

788
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 3: he's doing it in a way that splits the coalition

789
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 3: previously that was able to really bring him. He could

790
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 3: be all things to all people as long as he

791
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 3: was just kind of floating in the clouds.

792
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: He got the.

793
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 3: Tech right, the barstool right, Maga Wright, who obviously will

794
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:57,240
Speaker 3: back him no matter what. This is like the first

795
00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 3: time he's staking something out. And so, as you said,

796
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,880
Speaker 3: you begin to see the cracks that are forming. For example,

797
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 3: here we've got Dave Portnoy. He says he's riding with

798
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 3: Trump for now, but he said he's lost some twenty

799
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 3: million dollars.

800
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

801
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 7: I went super viral when I said I lost seven

802
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 7: million dollars. I'd kill to be back to losing seven

803
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 7: million dollars. I haven't even looked if I had to

804
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,720
Speaker 7: guess them down in these last three days, probably close

805
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 7: to twenty I don't know, like ten to fifteen percent

806
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 7: of my net worth poof. But I'm still here. That's

807
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 7: the game. That's that's what I'm in. Like, Do I

808
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 7: like it?

809
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 5: No?

810
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 7: Am I crying? Am I like?

811
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:37,399
Speaker 5: Oh?

812
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 7: Whoa is me? I wish I voted for Kammalin? No?

813
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 7: Do I wish this didn't go down like this? Yes?

814
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 7: Am I in this to make money? Yes? Do I

815
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 7: wish I had that money in my back in my investment?

816
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 10: Oh?

817
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 1: Yes, So we'll see, we'll cracks begin to emerge.

818
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 2: Yes, it's also sad, like everyone's going to over Democrats

819
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 2: myself included in the mid terms theame oh did he say?

820
00:38:57,760 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 11: Thank? You?

821
00:38:58,200 --> 00:38:59,839
Speaker 2: Should say that that might have been in the rent

822
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 2: we had only lost seven million, not the twenty million

823
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 2: like Jesus Christ.

824
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 3: Well, it's going to get closer to forty to fifty million.

825
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 3: What do you think that's going to be here, He's going.

826
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 4: To be putting his pronouns in his bio here Verty.

827
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've seen that joke.

828
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 3: Bill Ackman will be doing land acknowledgments by that time.

829
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:15,919
Speaker 1: Let's go to the next one here.

830
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 3: This is Kevin O'Leary from Shark Tank begging Trump to

831
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 3: back off.

832
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 1: Let's take a lesson Kevin, your analysis of what's going on.

833
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,840
Speaker 11: Please, it's all Euro right now, because this is the

834
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 11: test case right here. I think this is a really

835
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 11: huge opportunity for Trump to find an off ramp here

836
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 11: in the administration because it's not Vietnam. That's not big enough.

837
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 11: But EU has a huge aspect that is so important,

838
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 11: and that's on automotive because if you think about how

839
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 11: restricted it's been in Germany alone, or in Switzerland or

840
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 11: France about getting US cars into those markets. They've been

841
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 11: so putatively oppressed with tariffs, and they're willing to wipe

842
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 11: those out. So what you get to say is, look

843
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 11: in the intern while we're building our own factories in

844
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 11: the US. On whatever it is you want to look at,

845
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:06,799
Speaker 11: I'm going to show you how it's done with euro

846
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 11: And the Eurozone has been brought to its knees. It's

847
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 11: willing to go zero zero and open its markets up.

848
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 11: And that's the key steward, the idea that you would

849
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 11: open up the Marcus and set the path for every

850
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 11: other negotiation of the other fifty nine countries. Whether it's

851
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:26,359
Speaker 11: Penguin Islands or whatever, it doesn't matter. This is the opportunity.

852
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 11: This is the moment. And if Navaral sees it that

853
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 11: way and advises Trump, and whether Lutnick sees it, but

854
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 11: that's what the market is holding onto right now. The

855
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 11: volatilities remain extreme, but this Eurozone deal is the beginning

856
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 11: of a beautiful outcome, if you want to put it

857
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 11: that way. And then you get to say to everybody, look,

858
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 11: it was a lot of volatility, but I got us there.

859
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:49,240
Speaker 1: This is the moment.

860
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:51,839
Speaker 3: Yes, it was a lot of volatility, but I got there.

861
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 3: It's like, yeah, I'm not thinking that's happening any.

862
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 4: Type this man, they're so like a beautiful That is

863
00:40:59,520 --> 00:40:59,840
Speaker 4: part of the.

864
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 3: Yes when you deal with the think about for anybody

865
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 3: out there. I'm sure this has never occurred before. You've

866
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 3: ever worked for some shithead boss? How do you deal

867
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 3: with it? And they're the most egomaniacal, annoying people on

868
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:12,959
Speaker 3: the playe.

869
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:14,359
Speaker 1: You got to stuck up to them a little bit.

870
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 3: You got to just say, oh, you know, you got

871
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 3: the olatter their ego, you know, to be able to

872
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 3: work them towards a solution and make sure they think

873
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 3: it's their idea. That's basically what we're dealing with here.

874
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,720
Speaker 3: Trump is that boss for the entire country.

875
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 2: It's more how I felt with my kids when they

876
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 2: were like four years old, to be honest with you

877
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 2: and make them feel like it's their idea. Yeah, there

878
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,320
Speaker 2: you go, present them with choices, but only the choices

879
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 2: you want them to go.

880
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a similar strategy.

881
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,840
Speaker 1: Right thing, Go all right, let's now, let's go flip

882
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 1: the coin.

883
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 3: What does it really look like for a lot of

884
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 3: the supporters here, we got Fox and Friends back in

885
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 3: Trump up.

886
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

887
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:53,399
Speaker 12: This is precisely what Donald Trump said he was going

888
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 12: to do, which is always a shock when a politician

889
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 12: does that, and it's what he's been saying for literally decades,

890
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:03,720
Speaker 12: that this is what needs to be done to save

891
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 12: the American economy.

892
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:06,240
Speaker 7: And I'll just bring up this go ahead.

893
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 6: Well, I was just going to say, you have to

894
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 6: just let him do what he's going to do. Give

895
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 6: him some time, because he is a businessman, he's a billionaire,

896
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:16,280
Speaker 6: he knows what he's doing.

897
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:17,720
Speaker 4: And when does.

898
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 6: America say we're tired of paying the most, We're tired

899
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:22,959
Speaker 6: of paying and paying and paying and doing what every

900
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 6: administration has done. When do we say we're standing up

901
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 6: for ourselves and we're going to make free and fair trade.

902
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 6: We're if you're charging us this amount, we're going to

903
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 6: charge you that amount.

904
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 4: That is not what we're doing.

905
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 3: We're doing.

906
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 1: Gotta let the Yeah.

907
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 3: Actually, that's the real problem, is anybody because as you

908
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:42,839
Speaker 3: and I know, there are well meeting people out there

909
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 3: and they trust their president, they voted for him, and

910
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 3: he tells you it's a reciprocal tariff, and they're like, yeah, okay,

911
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 3: it's a reciprocal tariff.

912
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 1: It's not a reciprocal tariff.

913
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 3: We can break it down, the fake formula and all

914
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 3: of that all you want, but empirically it's not reciprocal.

915
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 1: It is something.

916
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 3: It's a trade deficit tax basically. Okay, you can tell

917
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:02,479
Speaker 3: about too if you want. Doesn't sound so it sounds

918
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 3: a little different though.

919
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 10: I think whenever you do trade deficit tax, which is

920
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 10: decades and we're trying to make up for this, this

921
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,719
Speaker 10: and this, and it's actually not reciprocal, and actually even

922
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 10: if they drop the tariffs is zero, then we still

923
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 10: are not going to take that int account. You're like, hmm, okay,

924
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:17,839
Speaker 10: all right, well I'm feeling a little bit differently about

925
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,839
Speaker 10: this now, aren't I. For example, we also have a

926
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 10: new MAGA version of the World Economic Forum.

927
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen. I genuinely

928
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 1: love this one.

929
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 3: You do not need the new iPad, you do not

930
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 3: need the new cell phone, you do not need the

931
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:31,520
Speaker 3: new video game console.

932
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 1: You want them. There's a big difference. If you look

933
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 1: at the people.

934
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 3: Whinding about terrorifts, I challenge you to ask how their

935
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 3: lives have been affected in any way. In other words,

936
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 3: you will live in the pod and you will eat bugs.

937
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 4: You will eat the bugs, and you will love it.

938
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 3: I feel complicated, right because I kind of agree with him.

939
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:48,720
Speaker 3: I mean, is your life all that materially better because

940
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:50,439
Speaker 3: of the new iPad, the new cell phone, the new

941
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 3: video game console, all the new products electronic products that

942
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:57,840
Speaker 3: we've been able to purchase since the Great Recession?

943
00:43:57,880 --> 00:43:59,479
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think we're much for poorer

944
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 1: country actually.

945
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 3: But you know, as we always say, if that's the

946
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 3: only social contract that's on the table and you're going

947
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 3: to screw with that, that's a big problem unless you're

948
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 3: offering something very very different.

949
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 1: I mean, really, what you I think a good middle.

950
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:16,880
Speaker 3: Ground or whatever for America would say, yeah, you can

951
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 3: still have your iPad. We're going to try and build

952
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 3: it here here all the steps that we're going to

953
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 3: be able to do.

954
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 1: It's a win win.

955
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 3: You can still have your consumerism, we can still have

956
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 3: it made here on the cell phone point, I mean,

957
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 3: what do we really want me? I want competition. I

958
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 3: want to see something interesting in something new. That's part

959
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 3: of the thing that's exciting about BYD is finally you're like,

960
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 3: at least it's different. I haven't seen a different new

961
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 3: novel thing prop up technology wise, other than AI since

962
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 3: the invention of the iPhone.

963
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: That's it.

964
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 3: And even with the AI thing, it's now all commoditized

965
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 3: basically across the spectrum, and it all seems to be

966
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 3: going the same way of monopolization and of being rolled up.

967
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 1: That's a great thing.

968
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 3: About America, about entrepreneurship, but we don't see a lot

969
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 3: of that.

970
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,799
Speaker 1: And I don't know, just looking at this, I just

971
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:00,800
Speaker 1: know in my bones.

972
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, I did my whole rant about degenerate capitalism, but

973
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 3: like that's who we are right now. And you know,

974
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 3: it takes a literal cultural revolution to be able to

975
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 3: move away from it. It took us seventy five years to

976
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:13,280
Speaker 3: get here. It'll probably take us, I would say, fifty

977
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 3: to get out. You got to start small, and you

978
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 3: got to give people buy in, otherwise this will be

979
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,920
Speaker 3: an aberration. My current prediction is that America will be

980
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 3: the most neoliberal country on Earth in twenty twenty nine.

981
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 3: Like in twenty twenty nine, after Donald Trump is gone,

982
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 3: we will be like the gen Z is going to

983
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 3: be the most neo libbed Milton Friedman out.

984
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 1: That is generation so possible. I'm telling you, I'm calling

985
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 1: from a mile away.

986
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,360
Speaker 2: I mean, I think I can't remember who it was

987
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:40,839
Speaker 2: that made this point, but it was a good one.

988
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:44,319
Speaker 2: It was people's mental model is that Trump is trying

989
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 2: to bring us back to the fifties or sixties. But

990
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:50,359
Speaker 2: he's that's not what he's saying. He has consistently this

991
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 2: campaign and into this administration and at his inauguration he

992
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 2: wants to bring us back to nineteen hundred. He wants

993
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 2: to bring us back to the era of McKinley. That

994
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:02,640
Speaker 2: is a very different landscape. You're talking about before the

995
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 2: introduction of the income tax, which of course is aspirationally progressive,

996
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:10,840
Speaker 2: and which was put in place specifically so that you know,

997
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:12,959
Speaker 2: the government in the World War One and then World

998
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 2: War Two would be funded more by the rich than

999
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,839
Speaker 2: Tariff's land, of course, squarely on the working class. He's

1000
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 2: just implemented with the tariffs, the largest regressive tax on

1001
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 2: the working class in American history. You're also talking during

1002
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 2: the Gilded Age. This is a time before you have

1003
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 2: you know, child labor laws, is a time before you

1004
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:36,799
Speaker 2: have significant union rights and labor organizing and workplace protections.

1005
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 2: This is before the New Deal, so you don't have

1006
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:42,359
Speaker 2: the social safety net built out, you don't have even

1007
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 2: things like social security and medicare in place. So I

1008
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 2: do think it's important for people to have that mental

1009
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 2: model of that's the thing he's going for, not some

1010
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 2: fifties or sixties ideal. And if we think about the

1011
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:58,839
Speaker 2: time period when American manufacturing was at its height, I mean,

1012
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:00,879
Speaker 2: first of all, the world was just a different places, right,

1013
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 2: much of the world was devastated by World War Two.

1014
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 2: It gave us this unique, you know, advantage where we

1015
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 2: were sort of the only game in town. And the

1016
00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 2: other two pieces of that that are often overlooked is

1017
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:14,840
Speaker 2: number one, you did have a really strong labor movement,

1018
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 2: so people were able to achieve relatively high wages, relatively

1019
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:25,239
Speaker 2: stable employment, and secure pensions too by the way, secure retirements.

1020
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:29,280
Speaker 2: You also had, you know, the buildout of the FDR,

1021
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 2: social safety net, and housing was way more affordable, healthcare

1022
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 2: way more affordable, education, way more affordable. And this was

1023
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:43,240
Speaker 2: also before you have now this advent of increasing levels

1024
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:46,279
Speaker 2: of automation, so that you know, the same factory can

1025
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:50,720
Speaker 2: produce many much much more with many fewer human beings required,

1026
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:53,400
Speaker 2: which is another thing that Latinix says. So you know,

1027
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 2: there's there's no going back either to nineteen hundred or

1028
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:59,359
Speaker 2: to the fifties or sixties or seventies or whatever your

1029
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 2: you know, period of peak manufacturing American renaissance is going

1030
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 2: to be. And the fact that they have no interest

1031
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:09,920
Speaker 2: in I mean that Trump is busting unions. He's consistently

1032
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 2: been a union buster his entire life. He's taken that

1033
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:14,920
Speaker 2: into this administration. They're cutting the social safety net. There

1034
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,720
Speaker 2: are zero efforts in place to improve the cost of housing.

1035
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 2: In fact, the tariffs will only increase the cost of housing.

1036
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:22,800
Speaker 2: No efforts in place to reduce the cost of education,

1037
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 2: no efforts in place to reduce the cost of healthcare.

1038
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 2: In fact, some of the very mild reforms put in

1039
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 2: place by the Biden administration have been rolled back on

1040
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:35,120
Speaker 2: that front. So that's the landscape that you're actually looking

1041
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 2: at here. But I did enjoy this particular This was

1042
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 2: more of a creative, I think, attempt to spin the

1043
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 2: tariffs in a positive light. Congressman Roger Williams, who apparently

1044
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 2: is a car salesman, says that one good thing about

1045
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,239
Speaker 2: the tariffs is that now used cars are going to

1046
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 2: be more expensive. So this CCS is a positive Let's

1047
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:53,760
Speaker 2: take a listen.

1048
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:55,879
Speaker 11: To that, and people with used cars or used cars

1049
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 11: are going to be worth a little bit more.

1050
00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:58,880
Speaker 1: And when they was worth more, they have more down payment,

1051
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 1: they have more equity, and they can make their payment lesson.

1052
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 2: It was, so there you go, use cars are going

1053
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 2: to be more expensive. So you know, that's that's a

1054
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:06,759
Speaker 2: good That was actually a.

1055
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 3: Great landscape for all of us in twenty twenty ten.

1056
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:10,719
Speaker 3: Oh that was awesome.

1057
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:15,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, at a time when car Loan defaults are actually

1058
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:17,799
Speaker 2: spiking and at like I think like an all time high,

1059
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 2: they've definitely gone up significantly.

1060
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 3: Let me just quickly split the difference on nineteen oh

1061
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:24,279
Speaker 3: two's let's make the case for at least some of

1062
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:25,240
Speaker 3: the time of McKinley.

1063
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:25,959
Speaker 1: You know, it was nice.

1064
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 3: We were not the global pre eminent country that ran

1065
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:29,320
Speaker 3: the entire world.

1066
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:31,720
Speaker 1: It was a lot cheaper, actually to be a country

1067
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 1: that was not.

1068
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:34,399
Speaker 4: McKinley was moving us in that direction.

1069
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 1: Yes he was, but we weren't there. He was the

1070
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 1: taginning of the America. Let's take it.

1071
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 3: Let's take it all the way back to let's say

1072
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 3: nineteen hundred, right in the beginning of the progressive era,

1073
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:47,400
Speaker 3: literally pre the true expansion of at least the total

1074
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 3: expansionism that was eventually embraced with the conquest of Cuba.

1075
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:53,280
Speaker 1: And of the Philip Pildians.

1076
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 3: At that time, what was America's like actual what was

1077
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:01,400
Speaker 3: America's goal? America's goal was to to secure its place

1078
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 3: amongst the global.

1079
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 1: You know, it was to have some respect. But it

1080
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 1: was not to replace the German Empire or the British Empire.

1081
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 3: It was one which wanted some reciprocity in the world

1082
00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 3: of trade. It was one where forty percent of our

1083
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:17,239
Speaker 3: you know, so, or of our revenue at that time

1084
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 3: would come from customs duties. But broadly, it was a

1085
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 3: country very similar to some of the issues that we

1086
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:27,520
Speaker 3: have now. We had major fights about immigration, We had

1087
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:31,759
Speaker 3: big fights about the transition to industrial capitalism. We were

1088
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:35,759
Speaker 3: an inward focused country that needed to hash out all

1089
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 3: of those types of problems before we eventually became this

1090
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,759
Speaker 3: player in the middle of World War One. I'd also say,

1091
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:43,799
Speaker 3: and this is a common thing too, you know, yes,

1092
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 3: you know, we can talk about the nobility of income

1093
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:48,400
Speaker 3: tax and all that, but the true necessity of income

1094
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:50,919
Speaker 3: tax was to fund the war machine. I mean, it's

1095
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 3: not a surprise the first income tax ever instituted in

1096
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 3: the history of the United States is during the American

1097
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:57,799
Speaker 3: Civil War when they need money, and so a lot

1098
00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:01,880
Speaker 3: of it was actually not just correcting some gilded age,

1099
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:03,720
Speaker 3: you know, wealth and balance.

1100
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 2: But that was part of it, that was part of

1101
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 2: the intellectual case that was made to the public about it, because.

1102
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 3: The reason they needed the money in the first place

1103
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 3: was to build bombs and weapons, to send two hundred

1104
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 3: thousand Americans to die for what to preserve the British

1105
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:18,879
Speaker 3: Empire during the First World War. That's why I get

1106
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 3: really annoyed at people who get so furious at the

1107
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 3: Americans of nineteen twenties and nineteen thirties for passing smooth

1108
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 3: holly or for being isolationists. It's like, guys, literally two

1109
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 3: hundred thousands of two hundred thousand of their sons were

1110
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 3: murdered on the fields of France for like Woodrow Wilson's idealism,

1111
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:39,840
Speaker 3: and you got taxed and you got a great depression.

1112
00:51:40,239 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 1: What did you get out of that?

1113
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:43,080
Speaker 3: I mean, of course you're going to be somebody who

1114
00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:47,760
Speaker 3: is deeply skeptical of internationalism, of global trade. So anyway,

1115
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:50,400
Speaker 3: I just think it's there is at least some things

1116
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 3: you can learn from that time of the simplicity of

1117
00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 3: not being the seat of the global empire, some of

1118
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 3: the benefits of what could that be and you don't

1119
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:00,840
Speaker 3: have to return to that era certain things about it

1120
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:03,719
Speaker 3: which were actually great. And you know, so I just

1121
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 3: think that there's often there's often this idea that we

1122
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:10,959
Speaker 3: currently are living in where everything from that time period

1123
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 3: is like regressive and bad. But there were certain there

1124
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:15,960
Speaker 3: are mental models which you can adopt, and you can

1125
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:18,839
Speaker 3: look at from that time and say, yes, there are

1126
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:20,799
Speaker 3: certain things that we should aspire to. And I think

1127
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 3: one of the things that we should at least try

1128
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 3: to aspire to is to move away from having to

1129
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:28,279
Speaker 3: fund let's say, I mean Pete Hexstath yesterday, so that

1130
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:30,440
Speaker 3: the next Penagon budget is going to be one trillion

1131
00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:33,000
Speaker 3: dollars a trillion dollars.

1132
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:33,439
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1133
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:35,640
Speaker 2: Well, but and I guess that's why I see the

1134
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:39,280
Speaker 2: I see things differently. You're right, the full American empire

1135
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:42,240
Speaker 2: had not been built out, But that was the direction.

1136
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 2: I mean, McKinley takes the first big steps, yes, in

1137
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:48,320
Speaker 2: that direction. And you know, just in terms of the

1138
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 2: system of taxation, tariffs are deeply regressive. They land if

1139
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:56,360
Speaker 2: you are a working class person, much of your income

1140
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 2: is going to consumption. If you're a wealthy person, it doesn't.

1141
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,360
Speaker 2: And that's why it's like, you know, all these like

1142
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:03,800
Speaker 2: flat tax libertarian people. That's why a flat tax is

1143
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:06,879
Speaker 2: always wildly unpopular because people look at the fact of like, oh,

1144
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:09,920
Speaker 2: I'm going to get charged the same thing as this billionaire. Actually, no,

1145
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 2: it's going to be a much larger percent of your income.

1146
00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 2: And so, you know, the ideal of the income tax

1147
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:19,319
Speaker 2: is that it would be progressive, that the burden would

1148
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:21,839
Speaker 2: fall more heavily, you know, on the which people would

1149
00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 2: actually be taxed. We all know there's a million ways

1150
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:26,000
Speaker 2: that there's loopholes, and it's not lived up to its aspiration.

1151
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:30,280
Speaker 2: But Trump consistently talks about getting rid of the income

1152
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:33,960
Speaker 2: and going back to that funding model altogether. And that

1153
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:36,399
Speaker 2: would be a war on the working class. That would

1154
00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:40,400
Speaker 2: be requiring the working class to fund the one trillion

1155
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:43,359
Speaker 2: dollar defense budget and all of the wars. Because it's

1156
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:46,160
Speaker 2: not like they're rolling back, as we are about to

1157
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:48,359
Speaker 2: discuss in some of our later foreign policy blocks. It's

1158
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:50,959
Speaker 2: not like they're rolling back American Empire. In fact, there's

1159
00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:55,120
Speaker 2: you know, many expansionist plans that this administration is pushing

1160
00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:56,880
Speaker 2: at this point, you know, the last piece I just

1161
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:58,960
Speaker 2: wanted to quickly get to here, just in terms of

1162
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:01,360
Speaker 2: where everybody in Maga world is shaking out. You have

1163
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 2: another one of the billionaire Trump donors who is upset.

1164
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 2: Ken Lingo, and we could put this up on the

1165
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:11,680
Speaker 2: screen from the Financial Times said to them, among other things,

1166
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 2: he said, I don't understand the goddamn formula. I believe

1167
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:18,799
Speaker 2: Trump's been poorly advised by his advisors about this trade

1168
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 2: situation and the formula. They're no, dude, this is Trump's formula.

1169
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 2: His advisors have been doing everything they can except for

1170
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:28,880
Speaker 2: to borrow to push him in a different direction.

1171
00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 4: But this is all him.

1172
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:32,120
Speaker 2: But again to your point, this is the way that

1173
00:54:32,160 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 2: they all deal with him because they don't want to

1174
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:35,560
Speaker 2: get crosswise with the king.

1175
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:37,720
Speaker 4: When you have a monarch, this is what happens