1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,440 Speaker 1: Welcome to It could happen here a production of iHeart Radio. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:12,400 Speaker 1: The decision to send American soldiers into an American city 3 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: to restore order would be a momentous one, but it 4 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: would not be unprecedented. In nineteen fifty seven, President Eisenhower 5 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: sent the one hundred and first Airborne into Arkansas to 6 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: oppose that state's National Guard, who had been ordered by 7 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: the governor to not let black students into Little Rocks 8 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:32,639 Speaker 1: Central High School. In nineteen sixty seven, members of Detroit's 9 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: all white police force arrested several black men at a 10 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:39,200 Speaker 1: drinking club, which sparked riots that left forty three people dead. 11 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 1: The violence so overwhelmed the city's police that several thousand 12 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: Army troops and National guardsmen were brought in. In nineteen 13 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 1: sixty eight, after Martin Luther King Junior was assassinated, riots 14 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 1: broke out in the city of Chicago. The police tried 15 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: and failed to suppress the violence. Nine people died the 16 00:00:56,720 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: first night. The Army was again sent in to store order. 17 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: More than thirteen thousand soldiers were called into Washington, d c. 18 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: To protect the capital from spreading unrest and violence. Six 19 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 1: people died in rioting in Baltimore. The National Guard was 20 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: deployed there as well. I don't know about you, but 21 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,040 Speaker 1: I never heard much about all that when I was 22 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 1: in school. I think I remember a vague mention of 23 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: rioting people protesting and such, but certainly no more detail 24 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: than that. But what happened in the wake of Martin 25 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: Luther King Jr's murder was not simple rioting. It was 26 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 1: a goddamn uprising. The Holy Week Uprising is actually the 27 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 1: name given to the ten days of violence that followed 28 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: doctor King's assassination. Almost two hundred American cities experienced simultaneous rioting, arson, 29 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 1: sniper attacks, and massive property damage. Peter Levy, author of 30 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: The Great Uprising, writes that during this week quote, the 31 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 1: United States experienced its greatest wave of social unrest since 32 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: the Civil War. The uprisings injured thirty five hundred, killed 33 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: forty three, and to twenty seven thousand arrests. It took 34 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: a total of fifty eight thousand National guardsmen and Army 35 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: soldiers to contain the violence. Many of those involved on 36 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 1: the side of the protesters absolutely saw the uprisings as 37 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: the prelude to a revolution. When h Rap Brown, an 38 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 1: organizer with the Student Non Violent Coordinating Committee was arrested 39 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 1: by the FBI. He told them, quote, we stand on 40 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: the eve of the Black Revolution with eye for eye 41 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,399 Speaker 1: and life. The current rebellions were just a dress rehearsal 42 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: for the real revolution. Now, the Holy Week uprisings did not, 43 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 1: of course lead to a revolution, but they certainly provide 44 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: a blueprint of how we could expect the federal government 45 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: and the military to respond to a series of uprisings 46 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: in multiple major American cities. Once the police failed to 47 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: contain the unrest, as we talked about in the last episode, 48 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: the army and the National Guard would inevitably move in. 49 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: In the decades since nineteen sixty eight, American military thinkers 50 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: have grown more comfortable and adept at thinking of American 51 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 1: cities as just another battle space, as cities under siege 52 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 1: notes quote Lessons learned. Reports drawn up after military deployments 53 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: whose goal was to contain the Los Angeles riots of 54 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 1: nineteen two credit the success of the mission to the 55 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: fact that the enemy the local population, was easy to 56 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 1: out maneuver given their simple battle tactics and strategies. Now 57 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 1: I've referred back to cities under siege by Stephen Graham 58 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: several times in this podcast. I think it's developed a 59 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: vaguely prophetic feel to me. I first read through parts 60 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 1: of it in two thousand sixteen, after David Colcolan recommended 61 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 1: I read it. But it was published back in two 62 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 1: thousand ten, and it had its genesis in a conference 63 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: the author attended shortly after nine eleven. Here's Stephen Graham 64 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 1: telling that story. In two thousand and two, I was 65 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: invited with Simon Lawn course of the Spinfing Evanism book 66 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: to a conference in Israel title War in the City 67 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 1: in the twenty one Century. We were I meing and 68 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 1: eying a little bit about how whether to go, and 69 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 1: we ended up going. It was in Haifa University, and 70 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: we turned up expecting a sort of academic debate. We 71 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: were surrounded for a few days by guys wearing camouflage 72 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 1: and carrying machine guns and talking about the city as 73 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 1: the new battle ground, as the new frontier, as the 74 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: new space of of struggle for for militaries and for 75 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 1: security forces. And we were quite shocked and astonished to 76 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: discover this enormous world of sort of urban research that 77 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: was going on in a sort of parallel universe to 78 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 1: the more familiar worlds to us anyway of social science 79 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 1: discussions about cities. So we're back in the day before 80 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 1: the invasion of Iraq. Military planners in the United States 81 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: were already taking it for granted that the wars of 82 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: the future would be fought in cities. The last eighteen 83 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: years have proven that prediction accurate. For Luja, RockA, Marawi, 84 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: and Mosl are just the most spectacular EXAs amples. On 85 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: my second trip out to Mosel, we billeted with some 86 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: soldiers from Iraq's Golden Division, the US Train and Equipped 87 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: Special Forces Unit, and what had once been a wealthy 88 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: family's house in western Mosle. The man who had previously 89 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: lived there had risen high in Isis his ranks not 90 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,919 Speaker 1: because he was a great warrior or a devious terrorist mastermind, 91 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: but because he did a fantastic job of managing a 92 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: factory that produced metal tubing. These tubes had been used 93 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,839 Speaker 1: for a variety of tube based commercial purposes back in peacetime, 94 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,720 Speaker 1: but now that Mosell was at war, Isis had repurposed 95 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: the tubes to produce giant custom mortars. My videographer, my fixers, 96 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: and I all shared one of the most bizarre dinners 97 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 1: of my life with an Iraqi colonel and what had 98 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: once been that tube making man's daughter's bedroom. The walls 99 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:49,359 Speaker 1: were brightly painted with reasonable facsimiles of Disney princesses. Since 100 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 1: isis was Isis, their eyes had been blotted out with great, 101 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 1: big blotches of red. The purpose of that was to 102 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 1: sort of disrupt the drawings features enough that it didn't 103 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: violate fundamentalist Muslin prohibitions against depicting the human form. It 104 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: had the effect of making Ariel snow white and Pocahontas 105 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: look red eyed and vaguely demonic. As I sat there, 106 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 1: my eyes flitting from the paintings on the wall, to 107 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 1: the bullet holes in the ceiling, to the old colonel 108 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: happily eating lamb, I remembered a quote by Sultan Barakat, 109 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: a professor at the University of York. Today wars are 110 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 1: fought not in trenches and fields, but in living rooms, schools, 111 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: and supermarkets. The First American Civil War had battles with 112 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 1: names like bull Run, Gettysburg, and the Battle of the Wilderness. 113 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 1: The battles of the Second American Civil War will more 114 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: likely have names like the Battle of Boyle Heights, the 115 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: Battle of Manhattan, and the Battle of Portland. As doctor 116 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: Graham noted, this is not particularly controversial thinking among military planners. 117 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: It's been well accepted doctrine for decades that future war 118 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:59,479 Speaker 1: fighting will take place in cities. Mega cities, urban areas 119 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: with a popular lation of more than ten million are 120 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: particular areas of concern for military planners. The United States 121 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: has four mega cities. I found a Military Times article 122 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 1: published in two thousand eighteen that interviewed Army Chief of 123 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 1: Staff General Mark Milly about this quote. Milly has said 124 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 1: that the Army is not ready to fight in mega cities. 125 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: He has characterized recent and current urban operations, including fighting 126 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 1: and Aleppo in Syria and Fellujah and Mosle in Iraq, 127 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 1: as previews of future conflict. Those fights, while bloody, costly, 128 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: and destructive, hardly reached the scale of a mega city. 129 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 1: Mosle is not equal to a neighborhood and soul, Milly 130 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: has said. Now, two of America's mega cities, Los Angeles 131 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: and New York, also hosted huge occupy contingents back in 132 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 1: two thousand eleven. If we're looking at potential hotspots, cities 133 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: that might declare themselves autonomous zones. These both fit the bill. Now, 134 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 1: if your experience in the City of Angels is limitted 135 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 1: to walking the Santa Monica Peer or catching a movie 136 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: at Man's Chinese Theater, the idea of l A as 137 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: a center of violent resistance to the state probably seems absurd. 138 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 1: It's felt that way to me more than a few 139 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: times as I walk around my lovely palm lined neighborhood 140 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 1: on the West Side, enjoying cool breezes and watching smiling 141 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: couples walk their ridiculous tiny dogs. And when I start 142 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 1: to convince myself that my experiences in this pleasant chunk 143 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 1: of the city mean more than they do, I think 144 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: back to the Nineto riots. Those riots were kicked off, 145 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: of course by the brutal police beating of Rodney King 146 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,959 Speaker 1: and the fact that the officers responsible were acquitted, But 147 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 1: those riots did not arise in a vacuum. Unrest had 148 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 1: been growing in the city and among black urban populations 149 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: in the United States for quite some time. A tremendous 150 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 1: amount of rap and hip hop from the late eighties 151 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: and pre riot nineties referenced the widespread feeling that something 152 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 1: was about to go down. I actually found a fun 153 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 1: Rolling Stone article that picks out fifteen of these songs. 154 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 1: It's an interesting read. Quote on ghetto Boys City under Siege, 155 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 1: bushwick Bill plays tribute to Ida Delaney, a black woman 156 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:10,559 Speaker 1: who was shot to death by a drunken off duty 157 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: police officer in nineteen eighty nine. Unlike the four cops 158 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: received not guilty verdicts for assaulting Rodney King, Alex Gonzalez 159 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: was initially convicted of manslaughter, but the decision was overturned 160 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:24,680 Speaker 1: on appeal. Meanwhile, Scarface and Willie D. Mock then President 161 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:28,200 Speaker 1: George H. W. Bush's nineteen ninety invasion of Panama to 162 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: capture former CIA stooge Manuel Noriega and corrupt government officials 163 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: who hypocritically enabled drug pushers while publicly lambasting them. Their 164 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: final analysis, Everything's corrupt, fux school, fuck curfew, fuck homework, 165 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 1: and mother fuck a damn cop rails Bushwick Bill with 166 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 1: the kind of nihilism fervor that occasionally sets cities in flames. Now, 167 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 1: I find it interesting that bushwick Bill's City under Siege 168 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 1: has almost the exact same title as a seminal work 169 00:09:55,960 --> 00:10:00,080 Speaker 1: of military theory published twenty years later. Anyway, if the 170 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: l a police in ninety two were overwhelmed by a 171 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 1: group of largely unarmed and inexperienced, disobedient citizens. Well, that 172 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 1: can happen again. Individual states have been forced to use 173 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: the army to pacify cities in recent memory. What hasn't 174 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 1: happened ever, in this nation's history is the army being 175 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 1: overwhelmed by a civilian uprising. That would be unprecedented, and 176 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 1: it seems particularly unlikely in light of the fact that 177 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 1: our military has spent much of the last twenty years 178 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: fighting in cities and planning to fight in more cities. 179 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: But I have come to believe that it is in 180 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: fact possible for American insurgents to defeat, or at least 181 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: hold their own against the American military. The explanation for 182 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 1: why I feel this way also starts back in that 183 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 1: little girl's bedroom, and mosle I mentioned her father, the 184 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 1: home's former owner, had a job making tubes for ISIS mortars. 185 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 1: Much was said about the American weapons ISIS captured in 186 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:59,439 Speaker 1: Syria and Iraq. Less has been said about the open source, modular, 187 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: and easyly replicable weapon factories they created in mosl ISIS 188 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,559 Speaker 1: was infamous for using a weird bespoke one hundred and 189 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 1: nineteen point five millimeter mortar round These were very big shells, 190 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: and I can say from terrifying experience that they made 191 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: much larger booms than the standard eighty one millimeter mortars 192 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 1: used by American soldiers. These machines of war, like many 193 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 1: of ICE's deadliest armaments, were crafted entirely from things you 194 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 1: can find in any city on Earth. The average mechanic 195 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 1: in any American city can build one of Dasha's mortars. 196 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: There's mortar rounds and all ices. Explosive devices were built 197 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: with modularity in mind. ISIS had schematics for a standard 198 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 1: detonator which could be slotted into rockets or grenades or 199 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 1: suicide belts or gigantic vehicle based I e. D s 200 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: and then used to blast holes in Iraqi Army and 201 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 1: Kurdish defensive lines. In other words, ISIS invented a plug 202 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,959 Speaker 1: and play arsenal. With the open source designs, Isis dreamed 203 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: up any moderately intelligent engine near could throw together basically 204 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: any purpose built device he wanted to build. There's a 205 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: fantastic Wired article about this, the Terror Industrial Complex. Its 206 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 1: author follows a European investigator named Splitters as he travels 207 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: around i Rack to recently liberated IIS factories, trying to 208 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 1: figure out how they kept arming themselves once the entire 209 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: city of Mozle had been cut off from the rest 210 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:28,359 Speaker 1: of the caliphate. Quote. Iraq's oil fields provided the industrial 211 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: base tool and dye sets, high end saws, injection molding machines, 212 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: and skilled workers who knew how to quickly fashion intricate 213 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 1: parts to spec Raw materials came from cannibalizing steel pipe 214 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: and melting down scrap. ISIS engineers forged new fuses, new 215 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:46,680 Speaker 1: rockets and launchers, and new bomblets to be dropped by drones, 216 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 1: all assembled using instruction plans drawn up by ISIS officials. 217 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: The aluminum paste in the bucket, for example, which ISIS 218 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: craftsmen mixed with ammonium nitrate to make a potent main 219 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: charge from mortars and rocket warheads. Splitters discovered the same 220 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 1: buckets from the same manufacturers and chemical distributors in Fallujah, 221 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 1: to Crete and Mosle. I like to see the same 222 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 1: stuff in different cities, he tells me, since these repeat 223 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: sightings allow him to identify and describe different steps in 224 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: isis's supply chain. It confirms my theory that this is 225 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: the industrial revolution of terrorism, and for that they need 226 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: raw material and industrial quantities. If Iraq was the site 227 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: of terrorisms industrial revolution, American cities might wind up being 228 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 1: its proving ground. For one thing, there are already millions 229 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: of civilians in this country with access to many of 230 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 1: the basic tools and ingredients needed to manufacture similar armaments. 231 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 1: You can buy gunpowder in every state that deliver it 232 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 1: to your door. In many parts of this fair land 233 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 1: they deliver tannerite to ammonium nitrate, which provided the charge 234 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 1: for isis as. Explosives can also be derived from tannerite. 235 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 1: Back when I lived in Texas, I'd ordered twenty pounds 236 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: of the stuff At a time it cost around two 237 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 1: hundred dollars. It actually seems to be a little cheaper nowadays. 238 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: If you're on a budget, five pounds is just forty 239 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 1: two dollars. This might be news to urban liberals, but 240 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: trust me, every left and right wing gun nut in 241 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: America already knows about this stuff. They sell it in 242 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 1: sporting goods stores. In my mind, a city life Portland 243 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 1: is one of the easiest places to imagine a serious 244 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 1: revolutionary movement kicking off. It's got the right mix of 245 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 1: seriously dedicated, experienced left wing activists and politically active far 246 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: right extremists. It also has a prevalent gun culture, including 247 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: numerous left wing gun clubs. But even cities like New 248 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 1: York and Los Angeles, which restrict explosives, gunpowder, and firearms 249 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: much more rigorously, are large and porous enough that it 250 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 1: would be easy to imagine weaponry flowing there from other 251 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: parts of the country. In two thousand fifteen, a South 252 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: Carolina man's home was busted with five thousand illegal firearms. 253 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 1: Investigators suspect this home was a nexus point in what's 254 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: known as the Iron Pipeline, a network of gun smugglers 255 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 1: who ensure cities with strict gun control still enjoy access 256 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: to the same deadly weapons as people in Fuck Off Texas. 257 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 1: And this brings me to the Automaidon in keV. During 258 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: the Maidan Uprising, it became necessary to smuggle weaponry, fireworks, sticks, shields, 259 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 1: et cetera into the protest camp. As the fighting escalated 260 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 1: from the standard shoving matches between police and protesters to 261 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 1: something more akin to urban warfare. Members of the Automaidon 262 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 1: arranged distraction cars to draw police attention away, while other 263 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: volunteers drove their supplies into occupied sections of town. Much 264 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 1: of what was smuggled in was food or medical supplies, 265 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: but as the fighting wore on, rifles and ammunition and 266 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: armor became increasingly common. I imagine the same thing happening 267 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: in America as activists and occupied chunks of cities use 268 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 1: encrypted communication apps to coordinate with their friends and government 269 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 1: controlled territory. As the fighting grows more serious, the equipment 270 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: smuggled in will change from milk of magnesia for tear 271 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 1: gas helmets, shields, and sticks to kevlar vests, a R fifteens, 272 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: bullets and explosives. The same sort of thing, with a 273 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: different cast of characters will occur in separatist chunks of 274 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 1: rural America. Some of these smugglers will be enterprising young 275 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: mercenaries just looking for a way to make a buck. 276 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 1: Others will be true believers, and many may actually be 277 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:24,479 Speaker 1: leftist separatists willing to make a deal with right wing separatists, 278 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: handing over tools and raw materials derived from the industrial 279 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 1: base of the cities in exchange for food and firearms. 280 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 1: Civil wars make strange bedfellows. Just ask any Syrian and 281 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: I imagine one of the things those right wing separatists 282 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 1: will most once smuggled out from the cities are over 283 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: the counter civilian drones. And this brings me back to 284 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:48,720 Speaker 1: Isis and Mosel See Dash wasn't just making mortar rounds 285 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: in their homebrew factories. They also made bomblets with injection 286 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 1: molded plastic bodies and handmade tail kits. Some of these 287 00:16:56,360 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 1: literally looked like grenades with shuttlecocks attached. They'd take little 288 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: servo motors, simple remote controlled claus and attach those two 289 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:07,239 Speaker 1: perfectly legal drones. The most popular model seemed to be 290 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,359 Speaker 1: the d j I Phantom, which currently retails for between 291 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,919 Speaker 1: five hundred and fifteen hundred dollars depending on options. You 292 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,239 Speaker 1: can pick one up at your local best Buy today. 293 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,159 Speaker 1: Outfitting a drone in this manner requires very little. You 294 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,640 Speaker 1: can order all the necessary parts off of Amazon dot com. 295 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 1: Given enough time, anyone listening to this podcast could figure 296 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:30,400 Speaker 1: it all out. The only thing Amazon won't provide are 297 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,360 Speaker 1: the bomblets themselves. I'm not going to go into detail 298 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 1: about how exactly those are constructed, but if you know 299 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 1: someone who built their own computer. You probably know someone 300 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: who could figure it out. Bomb science is not rocket science. 301 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 1: With twenty or thirty thousand dollars in funding, a group 302 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 1: of insurgents could have everything they would need to start 303 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: putting together a small air force. And in case you're wondering, yes, 304 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 1: weaponized commercial drones are effective terrifyingly so. On my second 305 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: trip in the Moosle, I talked to Major Mezer Sadoun. 306 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 1: Mezer had been the captain of the Mosel swat team 307 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 1: before Isis invaded. He was famous for being the last 308 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,199 Speaker 1: cop in town as Isis took over the city, and 309 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:14,439 Speaker 1: when the Iraqi army invaded Mosele to oust Isis, he 310 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,640 Speaker 1: formed an elite unit of men who had all lost 311 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 1: family to Islamic terrorists and one revenge. They spent months 312 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 1: at the front of the advance. Mezer survived multiple car 313 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:27,440 Speaker 1: bombings and suicide belt detonations. He's probably the most frightening 314 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 1: man I will ever meet. I only saw him express 315 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: anything close to fear once, and it's when I asked 316 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 1: him about fighting Isis's drones. I remember the way he 317 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: shook his head as he explained to me how nearly 318 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 1: impossible it was to hit one of those little fuckers, 319 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:46,119 Speaker 1: even for experienced veterans with machine guns. There were a 320 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: lot of drones over Mosle, and many of them were 321 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,920 Speaker 1: d j I phantoms. The Iraqi army, taking a leaf 322 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: out of Isis's book, built their own drone fleet along 323 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 1: almost identical lines. I have a video on my hard 324 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 1: drive of one of these drones killing US sniper. I've 325 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,199 Speaker 1: also seen videos online of ISIS using these little drones 326 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 1: to blow up armored hum vies. Nick Waters, a journalist 327 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 1: with the investigative platform Belling Cat, analyzed hundreds of ISIS 328 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: drone strikes and found that twenty two point two percent 329 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 1: of them hit hum vs, But tanks and other armored 330 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:21,400 Speaker 1: vehicles like cougars and self propelled cannons were also attacked 331 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 1: and destroyed by weaponized civilian drones. Vehicle armor is not 332 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 1: as thick at the top, because why would it be. 333 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 1: I've even seen at least one video where ISIS dropped 334 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:35,200 Speaker 1: a grenade inside an armored vehicle through an opened top hatch. 335 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: It and the soldiers inside were basically atomized. Nothing scared 336 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 1: the Iraqi soldiers I was embedded with more than the 337 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 1: distinctive hum of tiny drones, and it really was terrifying 338 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 1: to know that out there and the sky around you, 339 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:51,919 Speaker 1: this little robotic gnat might be about to drop a 340 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,640 Speaker 1: bomb on your head. These drones are like two feet across. 341 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,120 Speaker 1: Most of them are white. When they move fast, they're 342 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: damn near invisible in the sky. Once you heard that buzz, 343 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:03,880 Speaker 1: you knew that a bomb could land in a second, 344 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: or a mortar, because ISIS also used unarmed drones as 345 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 1: spotters for their pocket artillery. I like to quote from 346 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 1: that Wired article again at a place where the author 347 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:16,120 Speaker 1: makes the point that isis's defeat and Mosele did not 348 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: mean that all their knowledge and capability died out. Quote 349 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: their intellectual capital, their weapon designs, the engineering challenges they've solved, 350 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 1: their industrial processes, blueprints and schematics still constitute a major threat. 351 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 1: That's the really scary part. To the extent that the 352 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,959 Speaker 1: ISIS model proliferates, says Matt Schrader, a senior researcher at 353 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 1: the Small Arms Survey, the Geneva Base think tank. Much 354 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,479 Speaker 1: of the international structure that prevents weapons trafficking is rendered 355 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: useless if ISIS can simply upload and share their designs 356 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:50,920 Speaker 1: and manufacturing processes with affiliates in Africa and Europe who 357 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,679 Speaker 1: also have access to money and machinery. Joshua Pierce, an 358 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:58,199 Speaker 1: engineering professor in Michigan Tech University, is an expert in 359 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: open source hardware. He descried ribes ISIS manufacturing as a 360 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:06,479 Speaker 1: very twisted maker culture. In this future, weapons schematics can 361 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,400 Speaker 1: be downloaded from the dark Web or simply shared via 362 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 1: popular encrypted social media services like WhatsApp. In the previous episode, 363 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 1: I talked about Adam Often and their obsessive love of 364 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: ISIS propaganda and tactics. Most Americans haven't heard of isis's 365 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 1: open source munition factories. The people who have are probably 366 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:31,119 Speaker 1: an even mix of military veterans, journalists, and budding terrorists. 367 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 1: Those files will spread, and they will wind up in 368 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 1: the hands of domestic extremists, not just ISIS. And because 369 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,920 Speaker 1: technology works the way it does, the weapons made will 370 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 1: only get more efficient and deadlier as different groups produce them, 371 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 1: work out kinks, and upload their improved designs to the Internet. 372 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 1: This is not a cat that can be put back 373 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:56,160 Speaker 1: in its bag. So let's think back to our hypothetical 374 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: civil war. We've got rural uprisings and cities that have 375 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 1: Barrick Hated themselves away from federal control. After many, many 376 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 1: deaths and injuries, it's become clear that the police have failed. 377 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: The point at which army and marine infantry start moving 378 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 1: in to say, put down the state of Jefferson uprising 379 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 1: in northern California and liberate Wall Street from the leftist 380 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 1: mob occupying it. At that point, many people would expect 381 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,679 Speaker 1: this to be where things end rather quickly, but I 382 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: believe it would be the point in which Fukau's boomerang 383 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 1: hits our nation square in the face. One of the 384 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 1: things that really struck me about that Wired article was 385 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: the comparison between ISIS weapon shops and maker culture. I 386 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 1: have a lot of friends who are into that sort 387 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 1: of stuff. One Guyane builds motorcycles out of scrap metal 388 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 1: and garbage. People with those skills, the kind of people 389 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 1: every city has thousands of, are perfectly capable of constructing 390 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 1: these kinds of arsenals where they motivated and angry enough 391 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 1: to want to do so. Now, what I've been talking 392 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 1: about so far is how a hypothetical American insurgency could 393 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,359 Speaker 1: arm as Elf with the kind of weapons that would 394 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,040 Speaker 1: allow it to compete with the U. S. Military, not 395 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,400 Speaker 1: in an open field, obviously, but in an urban battleground. 396 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 1: At this point, you may be asking yourselves, what good 397 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 1: are a bunch of mortars in tiny drones against tanks 398 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 1: and artillery. Well, I have a couple of responses to that. First, 399 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 1: it took the coalition nine months of brutal door to 400 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: door fighting to kick Isis out of Mosele. And second, 401 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,639 Speaker 1: the federal government would never get away with deploying the 402 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,640 Speaker 1: same kind of force against an American city that they 403 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 1: did against Mosle, at least not at first. Well, the 404 00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 1: official death toll in Mosele, according to the US government, 405 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 1: is only around a thousand civilians or so. Literally, no 406 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: one who's fought there, reported there, or lives there believes 407 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,640 Speaker 1: that they will be digging corpses out of collapsed buildings 408 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,719 Speaker 1: in that city for the next twenty years. Some estimates 409 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: put the real death toll at well over twenty five thousand. 410 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:55,400 Speaker 1: It could even be several times that. Try and imagine 411 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,439 Speaker 1: the political reaction to watching a section of Chicago or 412 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:02,199 Speaker 1: Dallas just turned in to powder. It's one thing for 413 00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,159 Speaker 1: the U. S. Air Force to murder a bunch of 414 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 1: foreigners five thousand miles away. It's another thing entirely to 415 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,919 Speaker 1: do it in America. We're not going to be dropping 416 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,639 Speaker 1: bombs and launching missiles in American cities. U S troops 417 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 1: will be sent in mounted in light armored vehicles. Mortars 418 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 1: and bomblets can do a lot of damage to those 419 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 1: The urban insurgents will have a couple of choices once 420 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,199 Speaker 1: the soldiers move in. Their first option would be to 421 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 1: seed the protest camp to the military and disperse into 422 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 1: the crowd. This would carry a huge number of tactical benefits, 423 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: but it would also mean losing hold on territory, which 424 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 1: for any kind of rebel movement would be a huge blow. 425 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,359 Speaker 1: It's one thing to say we're occupying Wall Street until 426 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 1: these changes are made, and another to go from defending 427 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 1: your barricades into a dispersed, violent insurgency. I don't think 428 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:51,640 Speaker 1: American leftists would take that tack. I can see them 429 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 1: trying to defend their autonomous zone, and I can see 430 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 1: it the American military hard pressed to dislodge them without 431 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 1: committing war crimes. It would be a slow grinding fight. 432 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 1: The work of snipers, drones, vehicle based i e. D s, 433 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 1: and home brewed heavy weapons. Things would be different in 434 00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:11,639 Speaker 1: rural America. Let's go back to our hypothetical state of 435 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 1: Jefferson doing its damnedest to strangle California's water supply. I 436 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 1: think the military would get involved pretty quickly there, and 437 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,159 Speaker 1: I think a rural insurgency would absolutely melt into the 438 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 1: trees at the first sight of any significant American military presence. 439 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,360 Speaker 1: There would certainly be Afghan war veterans among the insurgents, 440 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 1: and they would know exactly how to bleed and occupying army. 441 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,640 Speaker 1: I'd like to quote now from War, a fantastic book 442 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:40,960 Speaker 1: by famed conflict journalist Sebastian Younger. He spent months embedded 443 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: with an army platoon in the Corengall Valley, by far 444 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 1: the most dangerous posting in all of Afghanistan. Most of 445 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 1: what these soldiers experienced on a day to day basis 446 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 1: was not the kind of face to face gunfight Hollywood 447 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 1: loves to depict. Most nights, some young Afghan kid would 448 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 1: crawl up a mountain in the darkness with an old, 449 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,680 Speaker 1: cheap bolt action rifle and fire a few rounds towards 450 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:06,399 Speaker 1: the American outpost or cop. Here's Younger quote. Once I 451 00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,160 Speaker 1: was at the operations center when single shots started coming 452 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,360 Speaker 1: in and first Sergeant called Well headed for the door 453 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,120 Speaker 1: to deal with it. On his way out, I asked 454 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 1: him what was going on, some jackass waste in our time? 455 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 1: He said that jackass was probably a local teenager who 456 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,440 Speaker 1: was paid by one of the insurgent groups to fire 457 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,199 Speaker 1: off a magazine's worth of AMMO at the cop The 458 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 1: going rate was five dollars a day. He could fire 459 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,439 Speaker 1: at the base until mortars started coming back at him, 460 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,159 Speaker 1: and then he could drop off the backside of the 461 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,480 Speaker 1: ridge and be home in twenty minutes. Mobility has always 462 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,880 Speaker 1: been the default choice of guerilla fighters because they don't 463 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 1: have access to the kinds of heavy weapons that would 464 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,800 Speaker 1: slow them down. The fact that networks of highly mobile 465 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:45,119 Speaker 1: amateurs can confound even defeat a professional army is the 466 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,199 Speaker 1: only thing that has prevented empires from completely determining the 467 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 1: course of history. Whether that is a good thing or 468 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 1: not depends on what amateurs you're talking about or what empires, 469 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: but it does mean that you can't predict the outcome 470 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 1: of a war simply by looking at the numbers. For 471 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 1: every technological advances held by the Americans. The Taliban seem 472 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,679 Speaker 1: to have an equivalent or a countermeasure. Apache helicopters have 473 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 1: thermal imaging that reveals body heat on the mountain side, 474 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: so Taliban fighters disappear by covering themselves in a blanket 475 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,639 Speaker 1: on a warm rock. The Americans use unmanned drones to 476 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:16,920 Speaker 1: pinpoint the enemy, but the Taliban can do the same 477 00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: thing by watching the flocks of crows that circle American 478 00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:23,119 Speaker 1: soldiers looking for scraps of food. The Americans have virtually 479 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:26,679 Speaker 1: unlimited firepower, so the Taliban send only one guy to 480 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 1: take on an entire fire base. Whether or not he 481 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: gets killed, he will have succeeded in coming up the 482 00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:35,679 Speaker 1: machine for yet one more day. Everything in war is simple, 483 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,200 Speaker 1: but the simplest thing is difficult. The military theorist Carl 484 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:43,440 Speaker 1: von Klauswitz wrote in the twenties, the difficulties accumulate an 485 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:58,960 Speaker 1: end by producing a sort of friction. We now friction 486 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,840 Speaker 1: coming up the sheen That is exactly the root any 487 00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 1: group of smart insurgents would need to take in order 488 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 1: to defeat the United States military. We've all seen the 489 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,879 Speaker 1: posers who love to flex with their air fifteens on 490 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 1: social media and talk about how they need their assault 491 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 1: rifles to fight tyranny. I'm not going to make a 492 00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 1: pro or anti gun argument here, but I do want 493 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 1: to point out that from the point of view of 494 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: a rebel group, an old, rusty bolt action rifle can 495 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 1: be just as effective at gumming up the machine as 496 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,919 Speaker 1: a thirty dollar tactical black rifle with lasers and rails 497 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,679 Speaker 1: and ship. In fact, you don't even need the rifle 498 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 1: or the human volunteer. Armed drones can accomplish a similar 499 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 1: goal without risking a life. The reality, of course, is 500 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 1: that a variety of tactics would be used, some groups 501 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,920 Speaker 1: sending out lone snipers, others fielding drones with occasional raids 502 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,520 Speaker 1: and assaults by combat units. But I suspect in terms 503 00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,720 Speaker 1: of their sheer ability to produce friction, no current product 504 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:58,280 Speaker 1: has as much promise as drones. On the eighth of 505 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 1: January two thousand eighteen, the Russian Ministry of Defense released 506 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 1: a statement that the Cammingam Air Base and Syria had 507 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 1: been attacked by sudden mortar fire, killing two servicemen. Had 508 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 1: this been true, the attack would have been hardly newsworthy, 509 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:15,120 Speaker 1: But the reality which came out weeks later after intensive 510 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 1: open source investigation by journalists is that the Cammingam air 511 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 1: Base was assaulted on at least three separate occasions by 512 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 1: successive waves of handmade attack drones. These drones killed at 513 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,400 Speaker 1: least two Russian soldiers, but also damaged and grounded an 514 00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 1: unknown number of jets. We have pictures of at least 515 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 1: one of them. While the drones were all destroyed by 516 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,720 Speaker 1: Russian defenses, many of them were able to effectively loose 517 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 1: their payloads, and the attacks effectively grounded the entire air 518 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,479 Speaker 1: base for the better part of a week. There are 519 00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,920 Speaker 1: pictures of these drones. I'll have a few uploaded to 520 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 1: the site. But to describe them, if you ever built 521 00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,240 Speaker 1: one of those styrofoam model planes, the giant ones with 522 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,440 Speaker 1: like a four foot wingspan that you tossed into the sky, well, 523 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 1: these looked a lot like that, but with a motor 524 00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,480 Speaker 1: and an engine and pylons on the bottom that you 525 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 1: can attack bombs too. So these drones didn't even require 526 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,280 Speaker 1: someone have the cash to afford a d j I Phantom. 527 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 1: Handmade drones crafted from literally balsa wood and styrofoam grounded 528 00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,720 Speaker 1: a Russian air base filled with multimillion dollar fighter jets. 529 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 1: The bombs, in case you're wondering, are basically big plastic 530 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,600 Speaker 1: tubes filled with gunpowder and babies. That's all you need. 531 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 1: It turns out to kill people and puncture airplane gas tanks. 532 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 1: I encourage you to take a look at the picture 533 00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,880 Speaker 1: I'll post and see just how rudimentary these weapons are. 534 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 1: Most people listening to this podcast could probably build one 535 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:37,640 Speaker 1: with minor guidance given the right equipment. At least eighteen 536 00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,560 Speaker 1: drones were used in three successive attack waves. It's hard 537 00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:43,400 Speaker 1: to say exactly how much these costs to prepare, but 538 00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,640 Speaker 1: just looking at them, I wouldn't be surprised if the 539 00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:49,280 Speaker 1: whole attack cost twenty dollars or less. That's a pretty 540 00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,600 Speaker 1: good rate of return when it comes to silencing an 541 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:55,640 Speaker 1: entire modern air base for a week. Air power is 542 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:59,200 Speaker 1: traditionally one of, if not the biggest advantages the United 543 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 1: States takes to war. Think of the disastrous morale impact 544 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,960 Speaker 1: of knowing your helicopters and jets were grounded, knowing your 545 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 1: air support had been reduced or even knocked out because 546 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 1: some hillbilly redneck rigged together an air force for the 547 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:16,480 Speaker 1: cost of a Masdamiata and everything we've talked about so far, 548 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 1: all these potential tactics and weapons has mostly ignored the 549 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,520 Speaker 1: fact that the United States is filled with three D printers. 550 00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 1: I know individual people who own those things, and they 551 00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 1: get more common and more effective every year. You've probably 552 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 1: read a few hysterical articles over the years about the 553 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 1: terrible threat of three D printed guns. Let me tell 554 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 1: you those things are the very least of your worries. 555 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,280 Speaker 1: A shitty pistol that explodes in your hand half the 556 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 1: time is not nearly as scary as the suicide drones 557 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,720 Speaker 1: that terrorist groups have already made using machines that cost 558 00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 1: a few thousand dollars. In November of two seventeen, one 559 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,360 Speaker 1: such group in Syria bombed the Kaffer Home refugee camp 560 00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 1: with a device that looked like a tiny bomb with 561 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,760 Speaker 1: an engine, and that is essentially what it was. That 562 00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:59,760 Speaker 1: picture will be up on the site as well. Eagle 563 00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 1: Lie investigators quickly realized that the drone was constructed using 564 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 1: the telltale honeycomb pattern of a low end three D printer. 565 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,960 Speaker 1: According to all three D p quote, these homemade drones 566 00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:13,160 Speaker 1: and guided bombs offer terrorist organizations a number of advantages 567 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,320 Speaker 1: over missile strikes. These drones can evade missile warning receivers, 568 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,520 Speaker 1: can't be decoyed away from their target, and can be 569 00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:23,560 Speaker 1: launched from anywhere. In other words, because mass produced drones 570 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 1: like the d g I Phantom are legal products and stuff, 571 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,800 Speaker 1: there are ways to disable them, backdoors and known weaknesses 572 00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,640 Speaker 1: governments can exploit. A home built drone is much more 573 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 1: difficult to counter, and drones are not the only thing 574 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,640 Speaker 1: you can build with a three D printer. I'd like 575 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 1: to quote now from an article in National Interest. Army 576 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,480 Speaker 1: researchers have devised a method to produce ceramic body armor 577 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 1: lightweight but strong from a three D printer, except that 578 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 1: three D printers are meant to print out knickknacks, not 579 00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,880 Speaker 1: flak jackets, which means that engineers had to hack the 580 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:54,520 Speaker 1: printer to get the job done. Lionel Vargus Gonzalez, a 581 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,480 Speaker 1: researcher at the Army Research Laboratory, sees three D printer 582 00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:00,160 Speaker 1: ceramics as the next avenue for armor because we're going 583 00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,120 Speaker 1: to be able to in theory, design armor in a 584 00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 1: way that we can attach multiple materials together to a 585 00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,000 Speaker 1: single armor plate and be able to provide ways for 586 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,280 Speaker 1: the armory to perform better than it can be just 587 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:14,120 Speaker 1: based on material alone. The Industrial Revolution forever put an 588 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,920 Speaker 1: end to the era in which settled, so called civilized 589 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 1: people's had to worry about invasions from nomadic warrior people 590 00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,360 Speaker 1: throughout all of recorded history up until that point, every 591 00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 1: few centuries, some new tribe of horse mounted warriors would 592 00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,360 Speaker 1: trot down from the Asian steps and funk up an 593 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,640 Speaker 1: empire or three. Now we're crossing into a new era 594 00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:35,280 Speaker 1: where any group of sufficiently motivated people can produce military 595 00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,240 Speaker 1: grade weaponry via infrastructure small enough to fit into the 596 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:42,480 Speaker 1: average house. And maybe now understanding that, it's easier to 597 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,959 Speaker 1: understand how even the mighty US military could be overwhelmed 598 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 1: by an insurgency or, as I'm theorizing several insurgencies, the 599 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 1: most U S troops ever deployed to a Rack during 600 00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,000 Speaker 1: the occupation was a hundred and sixty six thousand men. 601 00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,440 Speaker 1: These soldiers will tell you they were nearly always under manned. 602 00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,240 Speaker 1: In fact, the only thing that made the occupation possible 603 00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,720 Speaker 1: was an equal number of contractors, many from Bangladesh and 604 00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,160 Speaker 1: other poor countries, doing dangerous jobs like driving supply trucks 605 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,800 Speaker 1: down booby trapped roads in lieu of U S servicemen 606 00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,000 Speaker 1: and women. Less than forty million people live in Iraq. 607 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,080 Speaker 1: The country is a hundred and sixty eight thousand, seven 608 00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,319 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty four square miles. There are more than 609 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,279 Speaker 1: three hundred and twenty million Americans spread out over more 610 00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 1: than three point seven million square miles. If one American 611 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,720 Speaker 1: city rose up against the federal government, ten or twenty 612 00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:34,319 Speaker 1: thousand soldiers could suppress the rebellion without mass destruction. If 613 00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,680 Speaker 1: one rural chunk of one state, like northern California, broke 614 00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:40,720 Speaker 1: out in a bloody insurgency, it might take longer to suppress, 615 00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 1: but our armed forces would certainly have the manpower. But 616 00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,200 Speaker 1: what about four or five cities and counties in a 617 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,640 Speaker 1: dozen American states? What if it spread even more widely 618 00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,919 Speaker 1: than that. For most of the occupation in Iraq, US 619 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,320 Speaker 1: forces were chronically short of manpower. In two thousand seven, 620 00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,920 Speaker 1: the army was desperate enough to massively reduce their recruitment standards. 621 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 1: This had predictable consequences. From a CBS article at the time, quote, 622 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,200 Speaker 1: the number of incoming soldiers with prior felony arrests or 623 00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 1: convictions has more than tripled in the past five years. 624 00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,720 Speaker 1: This year alone, the army accepted and estimated eight thousand 625 00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:17,760 Speaker 1: recruits with rap sheets, reports CBS News correspondent Kimberly Dozier. 626 00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,799 Speaker 1: Most are guilty of misdemeanors, but around a hundred in 627 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:24,440 Speaker 1: the past year had felony convictions. Burglaries and narcotics are 628 00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 1: probably are two top categories, according to Colonel Sheila Hickman. Now, 629 00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,320 Speaker 1: I'd like to read an excerpt from a Politico article 630 00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 1: written by a Vet named John Spencer. He's one of 631 00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,319 Speaker 1: the officers who had to deal with the consequences of 632 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,640 Speaker 1: this major manpower shortage. In two thousand and eight, when 633 00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 1: I was an infantry company commander in charge of over 634 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:44,320 Speaker 1: a hundred and forty soldiers in Baghdad, I saw firsthand 635 00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 1: how the declining number of volunteers is hurting the military. 636 00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 1: Thirty six of my men were forced to deploy, even 637 00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,280 Speaker 1: though their terms of service were up, a controversial military 638 00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,360 Speaker 1: policy known as stop loss or at the back door draft. 639 00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,080 Speaker 1: To meet the bare minimum number of soldiers in a unit, 640 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,439 Speaker 1: my unit took men who were medically unfit to fight. 641 00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:03,279 Speaker 1: I had soldiers that could not leave our compound because 642 00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:06,360 Speaker 1: they were medically prohibited from wearing body armor or classified 643 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:10,840 Speaker 1: as mentally unfit. I had soldiers taking antidepression, sleeping anxiety, 644 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,520 Speaker 1: and other drugs. I had a mentally unstable private viciously 645 00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,880 Speaker 1: attacked as sergeant, causing lifelong damage, and multiple other problem 646 00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,799 Speaker 1: soldiers that detracted from the combat performance of my unit. 647 00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:24,000 Speaker 1: This was symptomatic throughout the Army. I found an even 648 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,480 Speaker 1: more damning account in the U. S. Army War College's 649 00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:28,800 Speaker 1: report on the Iraq War, which you can all download 650 00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,719 Speaker 1: and read for free right now if you'd like. This 651 00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:35,319 Speaker 1: section concerns a National Guard unit from California sent into 652 00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 1: Iraq in a desperate attempt to deal with the crippling 653 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:43,520 Speaker 1: manpower shortage. Quote by summer, accusation surface that the battalion's 654 00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:47,320 Speaker 1: leaders had condoned illegal activities with prisoners, and US officers 655 00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,680 Speaker 1: found a video of unit non commissioned officers abusing seven 656 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,680 Speaker 1: prisoners by kicking them in their genitals and shocking them 657 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:57,920 Speaker 1: with a taser. The initial investigation into detaining abuse uncovered 658 00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,920 Speaker 1: systematic problems with the battalion, leading to at least ten 659 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:04,520 Speaker 1: other investigations that revealed a negative command climate. The battalion 660 00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:08,160 Speaker 1: commander Lieutenant Colonel Patrick Frey was an eccentric officer who 661 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,920 Speaker 1: had first fought in Vietnam before fighting as a mercenary 662 00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:14,239 Speaker 1: in Rhodesia. In Iraq, he carried a tomahawk that he 663 00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:17,279 Speaker 1: cleared at clearing barrels and used to night soldiers during 664 00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:22,319 Speaker 1: promotion ceremonies. Frey tolerated other similar eccentric behavior and his subordinates, 665 00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,480 Speaker 1: such as allowing soldiers to carry samurai swords on patrol. 666 00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:29,360 Speaker 1: As the investigations expanded, investigators discovered that Frey had almost 667 00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,320 Speaker 1: been relieved to command during the battalion's pre deployment training, 668 00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,719 Speaker 1: and one of the generals responsible for training the unit 669 00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:38,000 Speaker 1: had predicted Frey would get soldiers killed. Frey had also 670 00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:41,160 Speaker 1: been accused of mistreating his own troops during mobilization training, 671 00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,920 Speaker 1: placing some of them in a survival school style isolation 672 00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,120 Speaker 1: to toughen them and causing a near mutiny that came 673 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,920 Speaker 1: to the attention of the Los Angeles Times. The pattern 674 00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,880 Speaker 1: of abuses and poor leadership had continued in Iraq. Battalian 675 00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:55,600 Speaker 1: leaders had interpreted rules of engagement aggressively, leading one investigator 676 00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,879 Speaker 1: to describe Frey and his men as trying to fight 677 00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:02,320 Speaker 1: World War three. It was them, it's the world. Lower 678 00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:05,600 Speaker 1: standards mean we're soldiers, soldiers who might be more willing 679 00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,319 Speaker 1: to loot or rape, or lose their temper after a 680 00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,799 Speaker 1: sniper attack and take it out on civilians. That, of course, 681 00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,319 Speaker 1: would fuel the insurgency and make the task of the 682 00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:18,120 Speaker 1: soldiers even harder. Our military has been in this situation 683 00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:21,040 Speaker 1: constantly for almost twenty years, and we still don't have 684 00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:24,120 Speaker 1: a great handle on the problem. The manpower needs and 685 00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,839 Speaker 1: emotional stressors of fighting a war on American soil would 686 00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:31,520 Speaker 1: be even greater. Our military right now is facing a 687 00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:35,319 Speaker 1: major manpower shortage. It's not quite a crisis, but it's 688 00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,200 Speaker 1: an issue for our forces at their current state of activity. 689 00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,280 Speaker 1: The day before we recorded this episode, the news dropped 690 00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,319 Speaker 1: that Commandant of the Marine Corps, General Robert Neller, had 691 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,880 Speaker 1: just allowed some of his own emails to leak to 692 00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,600 Speaker 1: the press. He did this because he was deeply worried 693 00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,440 Speaker 1: about the impact President Trump's deployment of the military to 694 00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:54,680 Speaker 1: the border has had on the readiness of his troops. 695 00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:58,719 Speaker 1: Quote the combat readiness of second Marine Expeditionary Force, one 696 00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,080 Speaker 1: third of the combat power of the Marine Corps is 697 00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:06,000 Speaker 1: degraded and will continue to degrade. Given current conditions, a 698 00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:09,920 Speaker 1: series of widespread and violent insurgencies could very, very quickly 699 00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:12,960 Speaker 1: overtax the U. S. Military. If it happens, it will 700 00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,600 Speaker 1: occur so much quicker than most Americans, who view our 701 00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:18,799 Speaker 1: military as all but omnipotent, would ever expect. That's the 702 00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:22,160 Speaker 1: consequence of two decades of incessant warfare. Now, this does 703 00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:24,680 Speaker 1: not mean an insurgency would be able to defeat our 704 00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,840 Speaker 1: military on the battlefield. I'm not imagining U. S. Soldiers 705 00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,440 Speaker 1: in full flight, waving white flags and surrendering to some 706 00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,520 Speaker 1: army of gun toting Bubba's or Antifa. That's not how 707 00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:37,799 Speaker 1: this kind of war works. Instead, I'm imagining a situation 708 00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,320 Speaker 1: that looks a lot more like Afghanistan now or a 709 00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:43,240 Speaker 1: Rack before the surge, where the U. S. Military control 710 00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:46,279 Speaker 1: certain areas islands of stability, but are forced to pull 711 00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:48,880 Speaker 1: back and at least temporarily seed control of chunks of 712 00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:52,280 Speaker 1: the country to separatists and insurgents. The amount of America 713 00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:54,600 Speaker 1: that can be controlled and governed will be dictated by 714 00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,600 Speaker 1: the military's manpower. It will ebb a little more each 715 00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:01,319 Speaker 1: day soldiers die, an operational capath city is degraded more 716 00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,640 Speaker 1: and more. The United States military is ready from many 717 00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:07,279 Speaker 1: different situations, but it is not prepared to fight in 718 00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,960 Speaker 1: American cities, nor is it prepared for the scale of 719 00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:12,960 Speaker 1: conflict a second American Civil War would bring. It can 720 00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:16,919 Speaker 1: handle foreign militaries, It can sort of handle insurgeons in Afghanistan, 721 00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:24,719 Speaker 1: but I don't think it can handle Whoko's boomerang to me? 722 00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,200 Speaker 1: Can you care me home? Can you mention material, soul 723 00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:30,160 Speaker 1: and holding, be a friend? Baron load, ferry me off flush, 724 00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,480 Speaker 1: looking for and the posedly you know if you're very 725 00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:34,200 Speaker 1: to a pick in defense, perhaps I've heards that is 726 00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:36,520 Speaker 1: pretty intense, and I won. Because the want of future 727 00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:39,000 Speaker 1: king is waning. We all need song as a song 728 00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:41,640 Speaker 1: and hosters and rocks, saw dust and socks. Who makes 729 00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:44,520 Speaker 1: clocks at its close? Chellows time, here's a thief gladness 730 00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:46,680 Speaker 1: and grief cling to the leaf as a yellows yellow 731 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:48,960 Speaker 1: hand of every least as the sang sweet before this 732 00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:52,000 Speaker 1: invented the fellows go make your piece and gotch hard 733 00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,520 Speaker 1: beats before the whole earth gets swallow. So most sick 734 00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:58,400 Speaker 1: and sort of stuck under something slick the sea and 735 00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:02,200 Speaker 1: salty breeze no quipped the ship watch him slip. What 736 00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,600 Speaker 1: kind of candle has a wick? Hum? Both fens anyway 737 00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,960 Speaker 1: any day, but this one is ending me every morning. 738 00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:12,000 Speaker 1: See tended The's itchy for life, trying to get into 739 00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:14,480 Speaker 1: some tennas c t trying to get into some capits 740 00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:20,160 Speaker 1: of tea, tryn to make a couple of memories, slid away, bitter, 741 00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:37,719 Speaker 1: Miss Withers and crazy let him fade Tay, Okay, friends, 742 00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:41,279 Speaker 1: we can't. Can you give me home? Can you can 743 00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:48,920 Speaker 1: show the table? So pick de fence, perhaps the burch. 744 00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:55,600 Speaker 1: That is pretty intensive because I want to picture. I'm 745 00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:58,400 Speaker 1: Robert Evans and I'm just exhausted from reading all of that. 746 00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:00,920 Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter. I right, okay. You 747 00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:04,359 Speaker 1: can find this show on Twitter at happen Here pod, 748 00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:06,879 Speaker 1: and you can find the show online at it could 749 00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,840 Speaker 1: Happen here pod dot com. Our music, as always is 750 00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:14,160 Speaker 1: from four Fists. It could Happen Here is a production 751 00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:16,919 Speaker 1: of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, 752 00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:19,680 Speaker 1: listen to the I Heart Radio app, Apple podcast, or 753 00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:21,800 Speaker 1: ever you listen to your favorite shows.