Speaker 1: Take it down, Man, Now Down Man.
Speaker 2: Monday morning, April twenty fourth, twenty twenty three is Beating
Speaker 2: the Book podcast NFL Draft Special Skill Alexander and then
Speaker 2: what has become a tradition around here from the Deep
Speaker 2: Dive at NBC Sports bet the Edge podcast, Drew Dinsick
Speaker 2: joins us, how you doing, Drew's kay.
Speaker 3: I'm well, great to talk to you, Great to see
Speaker 3: you again. I haven't seen talked to Matt in a while,
Speaker 3: So fired up for today's pod. NFL Draft betting maybe
Speaker 3: kind of the closest niche betting market to my heart.
Speaker 4: So this is a great, great opportunity.
Speaker 2: Yeah, man, and Matt Brown, who you just referred to
Speaker 2: from the handle at Vson, former host of Primetime Action
Speaker 2: and a man who loves himself some NFL drafts as well.
Speaker 1: Yes, you in Primetime, the greatest show to ever get
Speaker 1: canceled on the greatest show ever get canceled on Vison to.
Speaker 5: Ever get canceled. I'm just on Vson. I think anywhere else?
Speaker 2: Ye?
Speaker 1: Maybe? Anywhere?
Speaker 2: Okay, pretty I did the analysis, Drew. Anywhere on Earth
Speaker 2: I think is what I can Anywhere on Earth? Yeah, sure, okay,
Speaker 2: So here we are a little more than seventy two hours.
Speaker 2: This is when we're recording it Monday morning, little more
Speaker 2: than seventy two hours before the twenty twenty three NFL Draft.
Speaker 5: There's so many ways to go here.
Speaker 1: You.
Speaker 2: By the way, Drew with Luke swayin Vegas Refund did
Speaker 2: a great job on the latest Deep Dive podcast. You
Speaker 2: had a great rumor that's out there that I actually
Speaker 2: bet because you were so convincing about it. We'll get
Speaker 2: into that as well, just how these things are being
Speaker 2: allowed at sports books, Who's who's booking them, who's not.
Speaker 2: But I just want to start with the macro statement
Speaker 2: of it, whether you guys agree with this or not,
Speaker 2: modern history. Three days before the NFL Draft, are you
Speaker 2: as uncertain about how this is going to go as
Speaker 2: any draft you can remember?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean for me for sure. I mean the
Speaker 1: last three drafts. I was really confident heading into the
Speaker 1: last three drafts, you know, I mean it was everything
Speaker 1: seemed to kind of have at least some different ways
Speaker 1: you could draw. Straight line to this happened, and straight
Speaker 1: line to this happened, and straight line this happening, And
Speaker 1: then as long as the odds matched up right, I mean,
Speaker 1: is this gonna happen one x amount of times, then
Speaker 1: it was a good bet for me, and less of
Speaker 1: those this year up in that way, less of those
Speaker 1: yes this year for me. For sure.
Speaker 5: You'd go with that too.
Speaker 3: Drue, Yeah, one hundred percent. You know, the uncertainty at
Speaker 3: two is enormous still. You know, usually you wake up
Speaker 3: the Monday morning before the draft and you kind of
Speaker 3: go through the NFL insiders, pods, articles, whatever, and there's
Speaker 3: like lots of confirmatory stuff in there, and today this
Speaker 3: morning was the oppo. It was like all it was
Speaker 3: everybody sort of has the same sentiment, which is, we
Speaker 3: don't really know what's going to happen, and I think
Speaker 3: at all because you know then this is cliches can be.
Speaker 3: But the draft starts at two with the Texans, and
Speaker 3: whether they ultimately decide to take a quarterback, trade the
Speaker 3: pick for presumably someone taking a quarterback or draft a
Speaker 3: defender really sends the draft in two different directions, because
Speaker 3: you know, we know that at three the Ardinals would
Speaker 3: most like to trade down. But if you know, if
Speaker 3: there's not demand for the quarterback market because Houston takes
Speaker 3: the defender, then all of a sudden, they're not going
Speaker 3: to get an offer that's worthy, you know, and you know,
Speaker 3: so you can definitely see a situation kind of a
Speaker 3: where quarterbacks go early, early, early, and then b where
Speaker 3: you know, they slide because it's just defense at the top.
Speaker 3: And you know, right now, I would put it something
Speaker 3: like seventy ish percent that the two second overall pick
Speaker 3: is a quarterback. But even that is still not anywhere
Speaker 3: close to as likely as what we would know in
Speaker 3: years past.
Speaker 2: Okay, so let's let's repeat that because you said it
Speaker 2: up beautifully. So the one thing we think we do know,
Speaker 2: and for the purpose of this discussion, I guess we
Speaker 2: have to go with this, is that the Panthers are
Speaker 2: taking Bryce Young at one. We'll put that at ninety
Speaker 2: one percent. Ninety nine point five percent. Yes, yeah, that
Speaker 2: sounds good. Okay, so it does start it too, And
Speaker 2: you laid out the three snario So Texans keep choose quarterback, which, again,
Speaker 2: by their franchise, you would think logically they should Texans
Speaker 2: keep and they pick defense if in fact, Bryce Young
Speaker 2: is so highly tiered by them and everybody else is
Speaker 2: so far below that that they're just not interested in
Speaker 2: anybody else and they're unwilling to trade to one, because
Speaker 2: that would be double the mistake after the old Davis
Speaker 2: Mills fourth and twelve, fourth and twenty lovey going for
Speaker 2: two game to end less seas in which, by the way,
Speaker 2: Matt Matt said it best just now in a numbers
Speaker 2: game could go down.
Speaker 5: How did you say it as the most egregious winn.
Speaker 1: I agreegious win, at least in recent memory. Because if
Speaker 1: if the whole thing was we're not actually we're not
Speaker 1: going to take a quarterback now because we we had
Speaker 1: a heart set on Bryce Young And if that, if
Speaker 1: that's the case, you win this meaningless game. You go
Speaker 1: for two with a minute thirty seven, All these different
Speaker 1: all these different things to point to just an egregious
Speaker 1: win for sure.
Speaker 2: And then the third option is Houston trades, right, and
Speaker 2: a team that would trade in would obviously be trading
Speaker 2: in for a quarterback. So all right, let's go with
Speaker 2: each one of those scenarios. So, because you were just
Speaker 2: alluding to it, which which I find interesting, as you said,
Speaker 2: if they decided to go defense, this is sort of
Speaker 2: the counterintuitive thing. You said, if they decide to go defense,
Speaker 2: it doesn't make the run on quarterbacks more hairy. It
Speaker 2: does the opposite in your.
Speaker 4: Opinion, Yeah, I mean, I really think so.
Speaker 3: The idea because is, you know, this is all about
Speaker 3: the AFC South, right, there are three there are three
Speaker 3: teams in the a FC South that don't have a
Speaker 3: quarterback of the future, and they all have draft assets
Speaker 3: at the top eleven picks of this year's draft, and
Speaker 3: those three teams kind of jockeying for position in terms
Speaker 3: of who's taking who, when you know it's the Titans
Speaker 3: really only have to give up the future to move
Speaker 3: up to three in order to keep the you know,
Speaker 3: the Colts from getting their guy. If you know, the
Speaker 3: Texans take a quarterback or a quarterback goes to I
Speaker 3: should say so it's you know, to me, at least
Speaker 3: Titans and anyone else kind of in the mix for
Speaker 3: a quarterback in the top eleven picks of the draft
Speaker 3: can stand pat and see who falls to them if
Speaker 3: quarterback do not go two and three.
Speaker 2: So if a defensive player goes two and by the way,
Speaker 2: on your podcast, you were saying you and Luke were
Speaker 2: saying Vegas refund that it appears that if the Texans
Speaker 2: went defense, they prefer they prefer Tyree Wilson now over
Speaker 2: will Anderson. That seems to be the thing, and that
Speaker 2: if they went defense, the Cardinals would be more likely
Speaker 2: to go Stan Patten go defense because the trade offers
Speaker 2: wouldn't come pouring in, and then the Colts would have
Speaker 2: Levis fall into their laps at four. That would be
Speaker 2: that scenario Stroud Anderson fall. The scenario where the scenario
Speaker 2: and this is what Matt was saying, Now I turn
Speaker 2: a mat you have a scenario where you believe that
Speaker 2: you have not eliminated the possibility of this going quarterback
Speaker 2: quarterback quarterback quarterback.
Speaker 1: Just I've not removed that from a possibility here, because,
Speaker 1: like you know, we all do this. I'm sure whenever
Speaker 1: we're trying to we're trying to go through like three
Speaker 1: or four likely scenarios and then we can at least
Speaker 1: try and figure out, Okay, is there a bet to
Speaker 1: be made if this scenario plays out? If this scenario
Speaker 1: plays I have this scenario plays out. I mean again,
Speaker 1: I said this on your show just just a little
Speaker 1: bit earlier. It is very hard to tank in the NFL.
Speaker 1: I thought Seattle was going to be one of the
Speaker 1: worst teams in the NFL. Last year a better an
Speaker 1: all under on that team, and then you stumble into
Speaker 1: wins and teams underperform and things happen. So, if you're
Speaker 1: the Texans as a franchise, just to assume that you're
Speaker 1: going to have one of the top two picks next
Speaker 1: year to get one of these guys that, by the way,
Speaker 1: we've all heard this can't miss prospect and all the
Speaker 1: greatest guys.
Speaker 5: They said this about this group last.
Speaker 1: Year, right right, It's like, yeah, don't draft a quarterback
Speaker 1: last year because this year and then we get to
Speaker 1: this year, it's kind of like, all of these guys
Speaker 1: aren't that good. It'll be the same thing next year,
Speaker 1: you know. And so to think that you're going to
Speaker 1: be in the scenario to get may or to get
Speaker 1: Williams next year, you have to have one of the
Speaker 1: top two picks, and if not, you're going to trade
Speaker 1: in to one of those top two picks, and they
Speaker 1: might not whoever has those picks might not want to
Speaker 1: trade with you, and they might one of those two guys.
Speaker 1: And so I don't know, you find yourself in a
Speaker 1: pretty nique scenario right here, in which I don't know
Speaker 1: if you pass on a quarterback. And if that's the case,
Speaker 1: then I think there is a Then it starts to
Speaker 1: get the other teams out there that are quarterback needed
Speaker 1: to start calling that Cardinal squad and say, hey man, look,
Speaker 1: you need a bunch of players. And even if we
Speaker 1: give you an extra couple of mid round picks or
Speaker 1: something like that, for us to do a little swapperoo
Speaker 1: right here, it makes a lot of sense for you
Speaker 1: because you are dead in the water. You're not gonna
Speaker 1: win any games in twenty twenty four, twenty twenty three,
Speaker 1: so let's go ahead and start building that roster up.
Speaker 2: All right, Drew, So, but I asked you to put
Speaker 2: a percentage chance. I think you started to do this
Speaker 2: on which of these scenarios happens at two. Who's the
Speaker 2: favorite right now, three days before the draft?
Speaker 5: What's the favorite?
Speaker 3: Yes, a quarterback going second has to be the favorite
Speaker 3: for me for a lot of reasons. And I think
Speaker 3: that kind of spelled it out.
Speaker 5: But quarterback either.
Speaker 3: Way, quarterback either way? Right, I'll give you sixty. Okay,
Speaker 3: So again, you're kind of reading all the tea leaves
Speaker 3: and getting all the info from the insiders across the
Speaker 3: NFL today, being like we don't know what's happening at two.
Speaker 3: Like that to me may mean that the Texans have
Speaker 3: a deal in principle, assuming that Bryce Young actually goes on,
Speaker 3: they may have a deal in principle. That's entirely possible.
Speaker 3: But I would put that at maybe ten percent. I
Speaker 3: would put sixty percent that the type the Texans kind
Speaker 3: of just get over there, you know, the feeling of
Speaker 3: disappointment of losing out on Bryce Young and take the
Speaker 3: top quarterback on their board, who I think is love us.
Speaker 3: I think that's probably like sixty percent chance. And then
Speaker 3: I would have about a thirty percent chance that they
Speaker 3: actually do punt on quarterback entirely and take a defender
Speaker 3: there because you know, to Matt's point, like the idea
Speaker 3: of walking, you know, you're going to sell tickets to
Speaker 3: your fanbase. So we're running it back with Davis Mills
Speaker 3: in case keenum like what, I don't realize. I don't
Speaker 3: really know how you can, you know, make that play
Speaker 3: out eventually. And you know, there's been a lot of
Speaker 3: speculation that they've done a ton of due diligence on
Speaker 3: Hended Hooker. But if you're taking him at like twelve
Speaker 3: or even trading back in or taking him at the
Speaker 3: top of the second round, that's a tough sell. So
Speaker 3: you know, I think ultimately I think they kind of
Speaker 3: cooler heads prevail and they come around and they just
Speaker 3: take their top QB available, who I think is love Us.
Speaker 3: And you know, the ten percent chance that they have
Speaker 3: a deal in principle with some other team coming up,
Speaker 3: I'm assuming it is for leve Us because you know,
Speaker 3: the only thing that you can say with the kind
Speaker 3: of you know, not cloak and dagger speculatory stuff, but
Speaker 3: you know pretty clearly the Cults are in a situation
Speaker 3: where they need a quarterback who can start relatively soon.
Speaker 3: They've been very candid and they always are about who
Speaker 3: they like, and it's love Us. And you know, I
Speaker 3: think the idea of any team trading into the top
Speaker 3: two or three is to jump the Colts for that player.
Speaker 3: So you know, I would guess that there is a
Speaker 3: realistic chance that somebody trades into the two to take
Speaker 3: love Us, And then I would say that there's probably
Speaker 3: the most likely I'll come as the Texans.
Speaker 4: Just chill out and do the right thing.
Speaker 2: This has nothing to do with anything in terms of
Speaker 2: a bet, but it does deserve repeating here where it's like,
Speaker 2: and it seems like whatever happened in the college football
Speaker 2: season matters not at all. So like every time Will
Speaker 2: Levis had a big moment, he came up small this
Speaker 2: last year in college football and CJ Stroud last night
Speaker 2: looked was crushing George's defense at Ohio State. So like,
Speaker 2: and none of that seems to matter, right, like we
Speaker 2: just forget. It's like, whatever happened, it doesn't matter. But
Speaker 2: by the way, the random story also, I happened to
Speaker 2: live in a building. It's a pair of buildings in
Speaker 2: the middle of the strip here. Antonio Pierce, the Raiders
Speaker 2: linebacker coach, lives in the other building, but we share
Speaker 2: a parking area, and so the Valets are always talking
Speaker 2: to him. I happen to be there. We leave at
Speaker 2: the same time in the morning. Antonio Pierce is just
Speaker 2: gushing about Will Levis. He's like, oh yeah, he's like
Speaker 2: he's like, he's like, he's a linebacker rose at seventy
Speaker 2: yards downfield. So all of these teams become so fixated
Speaker 2: on this pro type, right, it's amazing.
Speaker 3: I think you know what's kind of funny. Last time,
Speaker 3: I mean, you and Matt did a draft pod. I
Speaker 3: think your colleague Lombardi was part of the picture as well,
Speaker 3: and he was just steadfastly anti Justin Fields in that podcast,
Speaker 3: to the point where going back and listening to it
Speaker 3: would probably be funny, fun and funny, right. And this
Speaker 3: cycles as little as Lombardi saw I saw eye with
Speaker 3: him in that moment, this cycle. Almost everything he said
Speaker 3: as lined up exactly with what I'm hearing from NFL insiders,
Speaker 3: and the Levis stuff is, you know, like the linebacker
Speaker 3: coaches might like the Levis from the physical side of things,
Speaker 3: but it's almost all the mental that's kind of given
Speaker 3: him the leg up on a lot of draft boards,
Speaker 3: like teams that are not even at all really seriously
Speaker 3: considering quarterbacks in the draft. I've seen and heard what
Speaker 3: they're you know, how they rate ranked quarterbacks. And Levis's
Speaker 3: QB two almost unanimously after Bryce Young. And it comes
Speaker 3: down to the way he scored on the cognition test.
Speaker 3: It comes down to the fact that he was running
Speaker 3: a more pro style system.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 3: And the idea that Ohio State you know has, you know,
Speaker 3: just is putting quarterbacks into into the NFL without as
Speaker 3: much preparation as they would need to be able to,
Speaker 3: you know, to to to play the position well on
Speaker 3: day one. I think is sort of the kind of
Speaker 3: common mindset among the NFL, you know, front offices right now, but.
Speaker 5: We don't say we don't say that about Alabama quarterbacks though.
Speaker 1: I always think it's funny with because we have the
Speaker 1: same talking point with the two quarterbacks, but it just
Speaker 1: goes in the opposite directions, which is so CJ. Stroud
Speaker 1: they're like, yeah, but look at all the guys around him,
Speaker 1: I mean, like that's why I say. And then with
Speaker 1: Will Levis, they're like, yeah, but look at all the
Speaker 1: guys around him. They were terrible. So it's like we're
Speaker 1: just assuming he's going to be better because he had
Speaker 1: no talent around him, and with c J. Stroud, we're
Speaker 1: assuming he's going to be worse because he had all
Speaker 1: this talent around him. So it's like the same talking
Speaker 1: point just goes in opposite directions with the two guys.
Speaker 2: So so you and you and and you and Luke
Speaker 2: alluded to this, redid more than allude to it. You
Speaker 2: think there's a scenario where like CJ. Stroud could fall
Speaker 2: into Aaron Rodgers draft mode, which is that this guy
Speaker 2: who at one point was a four dollars favorite to
Speaker 2: be the number one pick. Yeah, if he gets past Tennessee,
Speaker 2: Let's say Tennessee holds their pick at eleven, he could
Speaker 2: be in free fall at that point. Like that scenario
Speaker 2: is possible.
Speaker 3: You always always always run into this where a player
Speaker 3: who is available when he was not expected to be available,
Speaker 3: teams will by default already you know, they've they've already
Speaker 3: kind of they've already kind of drawn a red line
Speaker 3: through that player when they go through their preparation.
Speaker 4: We're not even going to vet him. We're not going
Speaker 4: to do our due.
Speaker 3: Diligence, and so you know, they may just pass out
Speaker 3: of like, well, we didn't really think that he was
Speaker 3: going to be here, so we didn't even really consider it.
Speaker 3: And that's definitely what happened with Aaron Rodgers and a
Speaker 3: handful of teams that otherwise you know, were in the
Speaker 3: market to improve their quarterback situation. They just they didn't
Speaker 3: think he was going to be there because people thought
Speaker 3: he was going to go one. And so yeah, Stroud
Speaker 3: could very well find himself there. You know, I've heard
Speaker 3: this is a little cloak and dagger. But you know,
Speaker 3: it seems pretty clear that Stroud's visit with the Colts
Speaker 3: went poorly, and you know, I think.
Speaker 5: How did not do a run up to the draft?
Speaker 3: And Yeah, and honestly, like the outcome that I'm most
Speaker 3: excited to see how it plays out by far is
Speaker 3: if it goes too you know, Bryce young one Levis
Speaker 3: goes to to the Texans, and then Tennessee trades into
Speaker 3: the three to take Richardson, and then the Colts are
Speaker 3: now on the decision point of we need a quarterback?
Speaker 4: What is our plan be here?
Speaker 3: Because I would, honestly, at least from what I've heard,
Speaker 3: the likelihood of being Stroud or being you know, just
Speaker 3: kind of them just capitulating and taking a guy that
Speaker 3: they didn't have a great, great on is going to
Speaker 3: be fascinating to see. Ball is kind of steadfastly. You know,
Speaker 3: he's not a guy that's going to trade up draft equity,
Speaker 3: like he's not. He's not trading up even if you know,
Speaker 3: the worst case scenario plays out. And so I'd be
Speaker 3: fascinated to see if Plan B for them is do
Speaker 3: they make another run at Lamar Jackson, do they make
Speaker 3: a take, do they take a swing on Trey Lance, Like,
Speaker 3: there's definitely sort of a lot of other plan b's
Speaker 3: there that may kind of create true unknown with that
Speaker 3: fourth pick as opposed to just automatically taken Stroud.
Speaker 1: But with with the four quarterbacks, would we do are
Speaker 1: we all in agreement here that like the dead floor
Speaker 1: for the four that we assume are going to the
Speaker 1: first round, they're all gone by twenty right? Like that
Speaker 1: that's like the dead floor because then at that point
Speaker 1: you would have to make it through Tennessee, you'd have
Speaker 1: to make it through New England, you have to make
Speaker 1: it through washingtonsh So they say that's given. They say, Sam,
Speaker 1: how if someone's there? And then and then you get
Speaker 1: through Tampa who can't be loving their their situation either,
Speaker 1: And then and then you have that luxury pick for Seattle,
Speaker 1: which is their second pick in the first round.
Speaker 2: Well, what you're both alluding to is in that free fall,
Speaker 2: if the free fall of Stroud happened, it would be
Speaker 2: it would be multiple teams right that would be shocked
Speaker 2: that he was there and would have to all of
Speaker 2: a sudden throw out everything they've talked about, be like
Speaker 2: are we taking this guy? Yeah, Like we have to
Speaker 2: we kind of have to take him, right. We can't
Speaker 2: not take him until the fans were going with Sam Howel.
Speaker 1: Right, That's why I have put like, even if even
Speaker 1: if the craziest scenario quarterback plays out, I still think
Speaker 1: twenty is the like dead floor for the four to
Speaker 1: go because it would be several several teams that need
Speaker 1: quarterbacks who then would have to just pass on these
Speaker 1: guys like in just over and over and over again.
Speaker 5: Okay, I Drew is not liking that.
Speaker 3: You don't like that, Drew, Well, no, I just mean
Speaker 3: the command the commanders have already, they already have to
Speaker 3: kind of explain why Sam Howel's the choice over Lamar Jackson's.
Speaker 5: You don't know, he threw eleven completed forward passes. What
Speaker 5: are you talking about?
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I like, like, uh uh yeah, I yeah.
Speaker 3: I really am excited to see how it plays out. Surely,
Speaker 3: like this could all be, you know, kind of hollow
Speaker 3: speculation because we know, you know, the likes of the
Speaker 3: Seahawks and the Lions, who were always dark horses to
Speaker 3: take quarterbacks. They could have a higher grade on Stroud
Speaker 3: than any of us realized. I definitely don't know that
Speaker 3: for sure, that's true.
Speaker 1: Again, I didn't even mention tit at eighteen, like that's
Speaker 1: a that's a luxury. Again, that's the second first round pick, right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, oh yeah yeah, so yeah, to that point, the
Speaker 3: idea of Detroit passing on him, Seattle passing on him
Speaker 3: twice is really, really, really really a stretch.
Speaker 4: So I agree, I think.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think I think realistically him making
Speaker 3: it past the Seahawks a second time is a is
Speaker 3: a stretch. They're kind of in that mix too, so yeah, yeah,
Speaker 3: So I think C. J. Strouds floor is probably eighteen
Speaker 3: nineteen twenty.
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson, as you guys pointed out, has to has
Speaker 2: to be drafted by a team with a quote unquote
Speaker 2: bridge quarterback, right, so Seattle that five could maybe, right, sure,
Speaker 2: I don't know, there's so many scenarios here, but it
Speaker 2: can't be.
Speaker 5: But the Colts wouldn't because they don't have him, right,
Speaker 5: So the Colts would not be.
Speaker 3: It, right, Yeah, Yeah, I think I think Seattle at
Speaker 3: five is probably Richardson's floor. That's my that's my gut.
Speaker 3: And part of the reason is because they were so
Speaker 3: enamored with Josh Allen and like like that's a real story,
Speaker 3: Like that's not made up. They were so enamored with
Speaker 3: Josh Allen they were considering him moving on from prime
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson to take a swing on Josh Allen as
Speaker 3: a developmental piece. And the similarities between Alan and Richardson
Speaker 3: are pretty unmistakable, like you can't miss it. And so
Speaker 3: Seattle having a higher grade than I think a lot
Speaker 3: of people realize. On Richardson, I think is pretty likely.
Speaker 3: And if he's available at five, I would expect that's
Speaker 3: his floor. But he may not be available at five
Speaker 3: because again, if you had to say, like hold my
Speaker 3: feet to the fire, what's the most likely thing that's
Speaker 3: going to happen on Thursday right now? I think it's
Speaker 3: young Levis Wilson, Richardson, Anderson.
Speaker 5: Young Levis Wilson, Richardson four.
Speaker 4: Yeah to the Colts.
Speaker 5: Richardson, Yeah, Richardson to the Colts.
Speaker 4: Yeah. I think they take Richardson Overstroud. Certainly. If there's
Speaker 4: those those.
Speaker 2: Guys are done, you still think they would go rid Wow,
Speaker 2: and then who goes five? Anderson Anderson because they don't
Speaker 2: want Carter at all. They don't do the Seahawks do
Speaker 2: not want Jalen.
Speaker 4: Carter, that's my gut.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well Will Anderson, who's been available in the NFL
Speaker 2: draft I think for three straight seasons now just cannot
Speaker 2: buy a break and now he's falling. Okay, I want
Speaker 2: I want to get to all of like, sure, what
Speaker 2: bets you think are available now that people can bet?
Speaker 2: And I want to get to what bets you have
Speaker 2: in pocket that you like the most, that you like
Speaker 2: the least. I have tons that I don't like it
Speaker 2: all anymore. But can you just tell that because you
Speaker 2: you alluded to it here before before we get into
Speaker 2: all that, sure you said that there might be ten
Speaker 2: percent chance that there's a trade in pocket.
Speaker 5: Could you give that ruler?
Speaker 2: Because I think it's of all the things, this might
Speaker 2: be the most fascinating scenario.
Speaker 3: Yeah, because you know, you think basically where and again
Speaker 3: we're speculating on sort of the plan that Texans have
Speaker 3: for what they're going to sell their fans as far
Speaker 3: as quarterback for this season, and if they pass on
Speaker 3: a quarterback of two, if they take a d you know,
Speaker 3: if they're even considering it, then they have to have
Speaker 3: a plan B in place, Like what's our plan B here?
Speaker 3: And I would say plan B. You know, it could
Speaker 3: include you know, taking a quarterback later in the draft,
Speaker 3: which isn't as sexy, or it could be as you know,
Speaker 3: it could be trading for another player who's in a
Speaker 3: disgruntled situation. And Trey Lance is obviously the one that
Speaker 3: was floated, presumably by San Francisco, by the way, who
Speaker 3: is like desperate for an offer rock Yeah, and I'm
Speaker 3: excited to see your San Francisco forty nine ers and
Speaker 3: brock Purty week one with his uh uh, you know,
Speaker 3: his rook is Tommy John elbow. Maybe the noodle arm
Speaker 3: isn't an issue anymore. Maybe now he's thrown at one
Speaker 3: hundred yards over the mountains. But you know, but you know,
Speaker 3: brock perty is the future in San Francisco. Trey Lance
Speaker 3: is on the ounce. There was a lot of buzz that,
Speaker 3: you know, that's that the teams are going to get
Speaker 3: small for Trey Lance, and that could be the Texans plan.
Speaker 3: But I like I circle Mac Jones as kind of
Speaker 3: a more likely guy to be moved on draft day
Speaker 3: because I just I don't see that being a long term,
Speaker 3: you know, viable relationship with everything that's happened in the
Speaker 3: last year now between Belichick and mac Jones, and I
Speaker 3: know certainly the Patriots are kicking the tires on some
Speaker 3: of these quarterbacks in this draft class, which to me
Speaker 3: means that mac Jones may be on the move.
Speaker 2: Will Levis did come in for an interview or a
Speaker 2: day there on Wednesday, the last day that you could
Speaker 2: sneak somebody into your camp. So one of the things
Speaker 2: behind that Mac Jones rumor. And I heard this too
Speaker 2: before I heard you and Luke talking about it. I
Speaker 2: can't tell you where I heard it because I don't
Speaker 2: remember anymore. What was this whole thing about when Matt
Speaker 2: Patricia became the offensive guy at New England One of
Speaker 2: the weirdest decisions ever by Belichick that mac Jones is realizing, oh,
Speaker 2: this is gonna be a shit show, goes to his
Speaker 2: alma mater, Alabama, and ask for help, And that gets
Speaker 2: back to Belichick. Now, I don't know, Drew where I
Speaker 2: heard that, but I heard that in the last few
Speaker 2: weeks also, and so that's where the beginning of their
Speaker 2: sort of bad relationship begins. Do you believe that Do
Speaker 2: you believe that a trade could happen like that at all?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean, I certainly believe that Belichick would take
Speaker 1: offense to that. He seems like the type of guy
Speaker 1: that would. Yes, that is that I buy a hundred
Speaker 1: percent where it's kind of like whoa, whoa, whoa. Do
Speaker 1: you know who I am? Yes? I am God? So yes,
Speaker 1: you don't go ask God. You already have God. You
Speaker 1: don't go ask Buddha, right, I mean like you got
Speaker 1: God right here.
Speaker 2: I told everybody on a numbers game this morning. I
Speaker 2: told the Drew's mac Jones scenario, and the couple people
Speaker 2: the feedback was, oh, Belichick, he never trades up, he
Speaker 2: never does it. Do we really know what Belichick post
Speaker 2: Tom Brady would do on any.
Speaker 5: Of this stuff?
Speaker 2: If really, By the way, so just to let you know, Drew,
Speaker 2: based on that story, that was enough for me to
Speaker 2: take the Patriots first election as a quarterback at eight
Speaker 2: to one.
Speaker 5: Thank you very much. That happens, that happens'll be.
Speaker 3: It'll be fun, all right. I think that I think
Speaker 3: we're talking. You know, maybe ten percent sounds insanely high,
Speaker 3: but I just in the back of my head because again,
Speaker 3: like I heard that story in the moment, you know,
Speaker 3: during camp last year, and I laughed it off from
Speaker 3: like Patriots insider that there was like bad blood all
Speaker 3: of a sudden between Belichick and Jones, and I was
Speaker 3: like what And then I heard it separately second source
Speaker 3: to completely different orbits. So now I pretty much assume
Speaker 3: it's true. And you know, the idea that Belichick is
Speaker 3: not going into camp this year with Mac Jones's QB
Speaker 3: one I think is you know, starting to look more
Speaker 3: and more likely in my mind.
Speaker 5: Do you imagine that happens?
Speaker 1: Okay?
Speaker 3: So, I mean, the Patriots are going to be fourth
Speaker 3: favorite and division even with me, right, so why not
Speaker 3: why not try to get the next, you know, the
Speaker 3: next best thing?
Speaker 5: And he had a terrible year, I mean terrible year
Speaker 5: when you're expected to improve off your you know, the
Speaker 5: rookie year that everybody loves so much.
Speaker 4: So okay, good point.
Speaker 2: There's multiple to win on an NFL draft information based
Speaker 2: betting vehicle. You pointed out a couple of these on
Speaker 2: your podcast, which is, you know, one you go with
Speaker 2: a long shot play and you have enough conviction to
Speaker 2: make the bet and then somehow it manifests over time. Sure,
Speaker 2: some people hit Derek Stingley and third pick last year
Speaker 2: at one hundred to one. My number wasn't quite that high,
Speaker 2: but hit that as well. Then there's the opposite of that,
Speaker 2: which is something is so obvious to happen that you're
Speaker 2: willing to lay juice even though even though it's a
Speaker 2: lot of juice, because you're thinking this is a virtual certainty,
Speaker 2: it's still not high enough.
Speaker 5: Let me lay that.
Speaker 2: For instance, over five and a half offensive Lineman, I
Speaker 2: laid minus two eighty one because I think it's going
Speaker 2: to be six or seven now.
Speaker 1: And I'm on the opposite side of you on that one.
Speaker 5: Okay, So but those are the two biggest ways.
Speaker 2: The other one is you have some inside information and
Speaker 2: you just you know this is going to happen because
Speaker 2: you know somebody from some So it's great. It's information based.
Speaker 2: And just to give a just sort of broad backdrop
Speaker 2: on this, in Las Vegas, Christy Andrews, who runs the
Speaker 2: South Point Hotel Casino, which is where we're broadcasting this
Speaker 2: podcast from Christy Andrews. Last year, after the draft, the
Speaker 2: draft was in Vegas last year, he came on the show.
Speaker 2: He's like, I don't think I'm gonna book this again.
Speaker 2: Sixteen days before the draft, so that's thirteen days ago
Speaker 2: he came on a numbers game.
Speaker 5: He said, I'm not going to book it. But at
Speaker 5: least he was.
Speaker 2: Honest about it, right, because some of these other like
Speaker 2: Westgate's not booking it.
Speaker 1: There's one bet at betam GM or in Novater.
Speaker 2: That MGM has one bet one number one pick one. Yeah,
Speaker 2: number one pick, which is like unbettable. They haven't stations
Speaker 2: was the big. They were the big, sort of one
Speaker 2: that gets applause here. Yeah, they had twenty seven props up.
Speaker 2: They've had them up for a while. They're taking a
Speaker 2: dime on everything. Circa's doing the We're gonna put this
Speaker 2: up for three or four days and then act like
Speaker 2: we had them up forever, but they're taking a dime
Speaker 2: all day.
Speaker 1: It was Johnny Come Lately for them. Billy Hill to
Speaker 1: give the them credit, had.
Speaker 2: Up five for a good for a good one, five
Speaker 2: different props and that's it. Yeah, BOYD has a few
Speaker 2: boys limited but oh well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they close, they close, and they close, they close.
Speaker 1: So I got last night to look and I was
Speaker 1: gonna try to make it be like they just at
Speaker 1: ten pm. They just close. All the all the numbers
Speaker 1: are turned a little locks and they're like business is off. Yeah,
Speaker 1: business is closed. You can come back in the morning
Speaker 1: if you want a felt.
Speaker 2: So that's that's the state of affair in affairs in Nevada.
Speaker 2: It's like getting You would think it would grow and grow.
Speaker 2: It's the opposite direction here.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: You were saying Drew before the show that there's some
Speaker 2: other weird things that.
Speaker 5: Are happening with it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, yeah, it's just a it's it's been
Speaker 3: tougher to get liquidity into this draft pool than any
Speaker 3: you're I've been betting it. There are some funny wrinkles
Speaker 3: where if you find a long shot you like and
Speaker 3: you want to get more down at a legal shop,
Speaker 3: you can parlay it with some stuff that's very very
Speaker 3: likely to be graded between now and then, like nuggets
Speaker 3: to beat the Wolves and Celtics to beat the Hawks,
Speaker 3: like the limit parling. Yeah, if you put together multiple
Speaker 3: parlay legs, you basically are allowed that bet on every
Speaker 3: leg more or less, and that just you know, it's
Speaker 3: it's silly, but it's a fun way around the some
Speaker 3: of the the headaches of getting money down here. But yeah,
Speaker 3: I know, it's it's been very tough.
Speaker 5: How did you how did you find that out? By
Speaker 5: the way, were you like, I'll parlay this with EGA, Like,
Speaker 5: what did you do?
Speaker 3: I was just trying you try it. You know, it's
Speaker 3: just just testing raptors. Raptors testing the fence skill.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: That's that's why they lock them at Boyd overnight because
Speaker 3: that's what people like me get up and start testing
Speaker 3: the fence and you know, you don't want to walk
Speaker 3: in in the morning and say, what in the heck
Speaker 3: what happened?
Speaker 4: What just happened here?
Speaker 3: Like we didn't want this position and now we've got it,
Speaker 3: and uh, you know, I I think I think it's
Speaker 3: silly to be precious about booking the draft personally, because
Speaker 3: I you know, this year, if you were doing a
Speaker 3: good job of managing risk, you're sitting on massive plus
Speaker 3: ev bets that you wrote for CJ Stroud to go
Speaker 3: first overall, Like those were those.
Speaker 4: Are dead, those tickets are dead. That that's that's your
Speaker 4: money you want.
Speaker 3: If you were you were booking aggressively, if you were
Speaker 3: taking big limits at the time when everybody was so
Speaker 3: sure that they traded up for CJ. Stroud, you should
Speaker 3: be You should have a good day regardless of what.
Speaker 4: Happens on the rest of the board.
Speaker 3: And you know, you know, I think if you if
Speaker 3: you're writing more action, you know, in that in the
Speaker 3: truly speculative part of the cycle, which is February March,
Speaker 3: then you know you're going to come out ahead on
Speaker 3: a book. And that the more dangerous thing is what
Speaker 3: they actually did this cycle, which is opening a bunch
Speaker 3: with high liquidity right at the end when it's a
Speaker 3: lot more known, because now anything that goes is going
Speaker 3: one one way, Like there's not going to be any
Speaker 3: kind of, uh, you know, huge swings between now and
Speaker 3: the draft, unless you know something that we're all assuming
Speaker 3: is likely just becomes completely you know, blown up out
Speaker 3: of the water, like some team trades up into the
Speaker 3: two and is like we love CJ. Stroud, Like that
Speaker 3: doesn't seem like it's happening. But you know, that would
Speaker 3: be the only sort of chaotic, you know, chaotic event
Speaker 3: that could swing things.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd like to give my annual disclaimer on the
Speaker 1: podcast here, which is, please, I welcome the opportunity to
Speaker 1: get limited on these these markets and whatever. I welcome
Speaker 1: the opportunity like if if, if you only are gonna
Speaker 1: let me get two hundred down. I don't care. Let
Speaker 1: me get two hundred down. But we don't even have
Speaker 1: the options, right, Like, that's that's the biggest thing for me.
Speaker 2: Right, Like this is we talked about this on Primetime
Speaker 2: Action all the time. We are in many ways way
Speaker 2: too close to the sun.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: We deal with a very small subset of people who
Speaker 2: love to bet lots of.
Speaker 5: Money on things. We're all that person. Okay, most people
Speaker 5: are not like that, right, And I'm with you.
Speaker 2: Like for all the chirping that get the book on
Speaker 2: book crime that we hear from one book here where
Speaker 2: it's like, ah, those guys that don't take anything, only.
Speaker 1: Take two hundred and fifty. I'm like, I can get zero.
Speaker 1: I mean, get me to fifty. I can get zero.
Speaker 1: Like the mine is zero, like my max is zero. Totally,
Speaker 1: you know.
Speaker 3: Okay, So three days the other real quick on disclaimer
Speaker 3: and annual disclaimer stuff.
Speaker 4: I will say it again for the million of the
Speaker 4: year in a row.
Speaker 3: Like offer offer as much as you possibly can on
Speaker 3: the draft to your players. Because there are there is
Speaker 3: a huge class of betters, particularly new betters, that only
Speaker 3: bet the NFL or they only bet football. And you
Speaker 3: know what those guys have been doing sitting around since
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. They've been thinking, God, I wish I
Speaker 3: could bet on the NFL or something. And now here
Speaker 3: you have an opportunity for all those guys to go
Speaker 3: and run and deposit into their accounts, make a bunch
Speaker 3: of bets. Some of them are gonna win, some of
Speaker 3: them are gonna be stupid. Even if you get beat
Speaker 3: on the draft those players are, then they're not gonna
Speaker 3: Nobody has the discipline to immediately withdraw all those winnings
Speaker 3: and then go on the summer vacation. They're going to
Speaker 3: donk a bunch of that on NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs, Baseball.
Speaker 3: It's all coming back. Don't have to wait a week.
Speaker 3: The Kentucky Tucky in a week.
Speaker 4: It might not last a week exactly.
Speaker 3: They should treat this like a betting event and make
Speaker 3: it like a bonus for the players.
Speaker 4: Get all that money back. You're gonna engender good will.
Speaker 2: Since we're in the disclaimer moment, let me just put
Speaker 2: this one into. None of this, whether it's this draft
Speaker 2: special or any draft special that we've ever done here
Speaker 2: in Beating the Book podcast, has anything to do with
Speaker 2: our talent evaluation of these players. Just because I think
Speaker 2: that CJ. Stroud is better than these players, That's not
Speaker 2: what I'm betting. I couldn't care less. And no point
Speaker 2: have we, the three of us, ever talked about all
Speaker 2: this guy. The reason is is this guy's better than
Speaker 2: that guy. I know, we're just betting what we think
Speaker 2: is going to happen, and that needs to be stated
Speaker 2: over and over again. Apparently if I may say, okay,
Speaker 2: so Matt, yes, we're three days before the draft before
Speaker 2: we get to what you've bet, what you like, and
Speaker 2: what you don't like about what you've bet. If someone
Speaker 2: were landing on this right now, what's the best bet
Speaker 2: on the board that currently exists, I think.
Speaker 1: You can go in and if you look, a lot
Speaker 1: of people like to bet a little to win a lot,
Speaker 1: right more than what they're betting. They don't like to
Speaker 1: lay big juice. And so if you're more of a
Speaker 1: casual better I think that we are getting to the
Speaker 1: point where, like the over two and a half tight
Speaker 1: ends is over two dollars now, and Darnell Washington continues
Speaker 1: to get an incredible amount of buzz and a credible
Speaker 1: amount of steam, and you start to look at some
Speaker 1: of these teams at the bottom of the draft that, look,
Speaker 1: they need pass catchers, but that doesn't necessarily mean wide receivers, right,
Speaker 1: And like you look at a guy like Darneld Washington,
Speaker 1: who's six foot seven, who's you know, runs a four
Speaker 1: or five five. Maybe it's just a freak of nature.
Speaker 1: And if you kind of start to look comparatively to
Speaker 1: the other guys that are the no brainer tight ends,
Speaker 1: then he leads them in yards per target, yards per catch,
Speaker 1: explosive play percentage, and yards per catch after the reception.
Speaker 1: He's better than Mary Kinkaid and all of those categories
Speaker 1: and stuff. He just wasn't utilized as much there because
Speaker 1: you had all those different weapons at Georgia. So I
Speaker 1: mean over a couple bills for over two and a
Speaker 1: half tight ends. I think once you get towards the bottom,
Speaker 1: I mean, you really start to link some of these
Speaker 1: teams to pass catchers. And maybe that pass catcher doesn't
Speaker 1: necessly mean wide receiver. It could mean it could mean
Speaker 1: tied end.
Speaker 2: And of course the other two being Kinkaid and Mayor
Speaker 2: being the sort of done deal.
Speaker 3: I heard too many spooky things about red flags medically
Speaker 3: with Washington to get involved with that, but I agreed
Speaker 3: generally that there's a philosophy you can apply and make
Speaker 3: a good bet and have a fun draft night. And
Speaker 3: it's over offensive players sixteen and a half.
Speaker 4: Right now.
Speaker 3: The guys that are sneaking into the bottom around one
Speaker 3: based on all of the you know, based on all
Speaker 3: of the buzz, potentially a second running back, potentially a
Speaker 3: fifth quarterback.
Speaker 4: I agree with.
Speaker 3: Gil about offensive lineman could easily see six or seven
Speaker 3: not hearing a lot of buzz that there's going to
Speaker 3: be some big push to go, you know, to reach
Speaker 3: for an edge rusher because they're just not that good
Speaker 3: once you get to the second tier. Not no, you know,
Speaker 3: the cornerbacks are a little spooky because there's a very
Speaker 3: deep cornerback class and they're very talented, and you know,
Speaker 3: you could see you know, a decent amount of dbs
Speaker 3: go in the twenties and thirties. But I think right
Speaker 3: now over sixteen and a half, offensive players should be
Speaker 3: more like minus three hundred and it's like minus one fifteen.
Speaker 5: Did you mention this that there's thirty one picks in
Speaker 5: this in this first round as well? Did you mention
Speaker 5: that that's true?
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's no, I didn't mention it, but that
Speaker 4: is true.
Speaker 3: But they didn't. They didn't. They didn't bottle that one.
Speaker 3: They got that right when they add up the offense
Speaker 3: in the defense.
Speaker 4: So's free money there.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say it's the Will Anderson over three and
Speaker 2: a half, which you can still get at minus one seventy.
Speaker 2: I know it's not the sexiest juice in the world
Speaker 2: to delay minus one seven?
Speaker 5: Is that for everybody?
Speaker 2: But that should be way higher, shouldn't it, Like, is
Speaker 2: there any scenario where he goes top three?
Speaker 5: At this point?
Speaker 1: It's one out right, it seems like it's one out
Speaker 1: like it seems like because like we don't assume that
Speaker 1: two A and three are going to both go without
Speaker 1: being a quarterback being taken. So it's kind of like
Speaker 1: it's it's it's it's a one out bet, and so
Speaker 1: I don't like making one out bet, so I always
Speaker 1: go to the over them.
Speaker 4: So yeah, yeah, I will.
Speaker 3: I will say the The only hard intel that I
Speaker 3: have is that Wilson is over Anderson on Arizona's board.
Speaker 3: So if they it goes QBQB, I think Wilson is
Speaker 3: very very likely the third pick if Arizona can't trade,
Speaker 3: which is I think by the most that's the most
Speaker 3: likely one two three. But yeah, I mean if if
Speaker 3: if the Texans were so sold on taking a defensive player,
Speaker 3: and if that player was Will Anderson, there's no reason
Speaker 3: that they wouldn't be getting the fan base pipe hyped
Speaker 3: about that, right like they should. The pr campaign should
Speaker 3: already be in motion that this is guy's generational defensive player,
Speaker 3: is going to be the quarterback of our defense under
Speaker 3: DeMeco Ryans for the next.
Speaker 4: Ten years, right Like.
Speaker 3: I don't have heard intel that Wilson is over Anderson
Speaker 3: on the Texans board, but it seems pretty likely.
Speaker 4: And I think there are you know, there are.
Speaker 3: Just enough general boards that I've heard now across the
Speaker 3: NFL that have Wilson as the first defensive player that, yeah,
Speaker 3: I think Anderson over is a fair bedup.
Speaker 4: He said minus one seventy.
Speaker 5: Yeah, minus one seventy. That doesn't sound too bad.
Speaker 1: What's that?
Speaker 5: What's the deal with Anderson?
Speaker 2: Is he just considered they'll be this really good, solid
Speaker 2: pro He's just not going to be that fantastic or
Speaker 2: what I mean?
Speaker 4: What is high high flor low ceiling high flora.
Speaker 5: Low ceiling, which you don't pick high.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 3: Basically, the the the read I get from people who
Speaker 3: are connected on Anderson is he could if he can
Speaker 3: put on fifteen pounds, he could be a Khalil mac
Speaker 3: type contributor. Okay, that's so that's conditional, and his ceiling
Speaker 3: is Khalil Mack. If he adds fifteen pounds is probably
Speaker 3: a little scary. He doesn't have elite bend, depending on
Speaker 3: what you think bend means, but apparently apparently he doesn't
Speaker 3: have it, And you know, for those reasons, I think
Speaker 3: he's you know, he's he's if his contributions are largely
Speaker 3: in the run game and you know he's not going
Speaker 3: to be able to beat offensive tackles regularly with his
Speaker 3: bend at the NFL, then I think for those reasons,
Speaker 3: he's like a he's a guy you can count on
Speaker 3: to start for ten years, but he's not going to
Speaker 3: ever win you a Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: The one other one that's not in my account yet
Speaker 1: that I'm really considering is just that you can have
Speaker 1: the team to draft player and you can get those
Speaker 1: at super long odds, and it's just kind of more
Speaker 1: of a fun sweat type than anything else, and like
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks for Hendon Hooker at like ten eleven to
Speaker 1: one is still out there, and I think you have
Speaker 1: two outs with that, because the thing is is if
Speaker 1: they don't take him at twenty, they actually have via
Speaker 1: trade with Denver they pick at thirty seven in the
Speaker 1: second round as well. Right, so they're at the top
Speaker 1: of the second round, and the teams in front of
Speaker 1: them in the second round or Pittsburgh not Houston, well
Speaker 1: we assume not if they what are Arizona not in
Speaker 1: an Indianapolis not? So like you have Seattle there at
Speaker 1: the top of the second round as well to where
Speaker 1: if Hendon Hooker is still around, I can't imagine them
Speaker 1: passing again at thirty seven, right, if they don't take
Speaker 1: him at twenty, then you have the out there again
Speaker 1: at thirty seven again, so at ten eleven to one
Speaker 1: something like that. I think that that again, if you
Speaker 1: want kind of a fun bet that pays off a lot, can.
Speaker 5: We talk of that you alluded to there for a second.
Speaker 2: So there was the four and a half quarterbacks prop
Speaker 2: first round, which at one point at DraftKings was plus
Speaker 2: five point fifty to the over, which I said on
Speaker 2: the air, I'm like, you gotta bet that it's plus
Speaker 2: five to fifty. Do you think we're not going to
Speaker 2: get five in the first round.
Speaker 1: I think it's pretty live. We see people reach for
Speaker 1: quarterbacks all the time. Man Like, we see people reach
Speaker 1: all the time. They get nervous and they come back
Speaker 1: in and they take that quarterback and.
Speaker 5: It's it's minus money.
Speaker 1: Now though it's yes, not a bet that I would make.
Speaker 1: I'm just on the general. Do I think it could
Speaker 1: possibly happen here? I mean, everyone keeps talking about the age, right,
Speaker 1: Will Evis is gonna be twenty four, Like you know,
Speaker 1: Dalton kin K's gonna be twenty four.
Speaker 5: It is amazing how hypocritical.
Speaker 1: Like everyone keeps bringing up the age, like hen Hooker's
Speaker 1: twenty five. He would play in his year twenty six season. Right,
Speaker 1: if you get eight good years out of quarterback, he's
Speaker 1: thirty four, that's very normal, that's very like what team,
Speaker 1: what franchise is going to be like freaking out, like
Speaker 1: be like, we only got eight good years out of
Speaker 1: a starting quarterback. Most teams are like trying to redo
Speaker 1: their quarterback situation every two years, you know, So I
Speaker 1: don't know, I.
Speaker 5: Yourews getting ready to explode. I think I can tell.
Speaker 4: But no, no, no, no, no, I'm laughing. I think this
Speaker 4: is very very valid. Yeah.
Speaker 3: The idea of can't take a guy we're only going
Speaker 3: to get eight years out of is pretty funny.
Speaker 2: Okay, So that's why I bet it meant very low
Speaker 2: plus money. I think we didn't have the plus five
Speaker 2: fifty here, but good lord, if plus five fifty, I
Speaker 2: was like, you gotta bet that and see what happens.
Speaker 2: Is the offensive lineman in terms of the position ones,
Speaker 2: that's the one you're most confident in.
Speaker 5: Drew the over to five and a half, you're going
Speaker 5: the other way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let me see what the numbers is. That was
Speaker 1: just because that was because the number swung all the
Speaker 1: way to plus three twenty on on the under, and
Speaker 1: for me, I think that there's four dead for sure,
Speaker 1: five very likely, and then I think the six is
Speaker 1: kind of teetering a little bit. And certainly if we
Speaker 1: go over on the tight end type deal, then that's
Speaker 1: a lineman that's probably taken off the board. If we
Speaker 1: go over on the wide receivers is three and a half,
Speaker 1: then that's the lineman that would probably be taken off,
Speaker 1: So I don't know. It was just more of the
Speaker 1: over three to one type number play there for me
Speaker 1: than it was anything else. I think Scronsky John Jones
Speaker 1: right for sure. I think Torrents probably goes as well.
Speaker 1: I think those five, but the sixth one, I think
Speaker 1: is still kind of a coin toss. And so that's why.
Speaker 5: What about the people who wants the title, they'll they'll
Speaker 5: want the tight ends to be counted as offensive linemen,
Speaker 5: and they last for a refund. What about that.
Speaker 1: Crowd, it's happening, it's happen.
Speaker 5: Where's my refund?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think over five and a half offensive lineman
Speaker 3: should be more like minus five hundred dish I like.
Speaker 3: And that's really the reason is just I've heard enough
Speaker 3: now that how many Round one players are graded this year?
Speaker 3: This year's class is how deep?
Speaker 5: Is it?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 5: Like?
Speaker 4: Is it good?
Speaker 3: And most teams I think are in the fifteen to
Speaker 3: twenty five range in terms of players they have a
Speaker 3: first round great on And if you're picking in the
Speaker 3: late twenties low thirties this year and you need a
Speaker 3: starting center or guard, you know, or you you want
Speaker 3: to swing tackle, like, that's kind of the you know,
Speaker 3: the the players that all sit there right out, you know,
Speaker 3: right lower than a first round grade, who you would
Speaker 3: potentially use your capital on if you're in that range.
Speaker 3: There are a couple of Yeah, I think at least
Speaker 3: Anton is more likely than it sounds like Matt thinks
Speaker 3: to go in round one. And then yeah, a couple
Speaker 3: of these guards Tipman jms Avola all realistically possible to
Speaker 3: get snapped up at the end around one.
Speaker 2: Okay, I asked this of I asked this of Kelly
Speaker 2: earlier on the show. Because of the uncertain nature of
Speaker 2: this draft, I'm gonna get I'm gonna guess I'm gonna
Speaker 2: get a no from both of you. But I asked
Speaker 2: this of Kelly, which is, if you could take a
Speaker 2: net positive gain right now of any amount, even if
Speaker 2: it's just a modest one on this on all your
Speaker 2: NFL draft bets, would you take the modest gain right now?
Speaker 2: Because I know we're used to crushing this probably probably,
Speaker 2: I mean, but on.
Speaker 5: This one, would you just take it right now and
Speaker 5: call it to day ill?
Speaker 1: I mean, for one, I have about half of the
Speaker 1: money in play that I I've had the last three
Speaker 1: years as well, and that's just because again as I've
Speaker 1: gotten older and more mature, like, I don't just fire
Speaker 1: to fire, right, like, I'm only trying to make bets
Speaker 1: that I think I can win. And so I didn't
Speaker 1: just make bets to make sure that I have the
Speaker 1: same amount of action this year as I've had in
Speaker 1: previous years. And with all that, I mean you mentioned
Speaker 1: we're gonna run through our bet. There's a couple that
Speaker 1: I bet early on that I don't love anymore, and
Speaker 1: there's this all that. So yeah, I mean if somebody
Speaker 1: came in and said, hey, you can get a steak
Speaker 1: dinner out of this, I'd bet pretty good.
Speaker 5: You want to two years, go through years?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, so number one is going to
Speaker 1: work out well for me. And that's why I can't
Speaker 1: really lose. I don't think really on this because so
Speaker 1: I did lose. I did the whole thing where, you know,
Speaker 1: in the off season, right, so I had I had
Speaker 1: Levis at forty to one and forty five to one,
Speaker 1: I had a Oker at ninety to one. I had
Speaker 1: Richardson at thirty to one. Because I just took all
Speaker 1: those guys before the season even started and thought that
Speaker 1: maybe they could rock it. Well, that put me in
Speaker 1: a good position when it started kind of looking more
Speaker 1: and more like Bryce shung, so then got Bryce got
Speaker 1: bright showing. And then when the thing swung all the
Speaker 1: way to him at like plus two seventy five, I
Speaker 1: just came in and got more right at plus two
Speaker 1: seventy five. So at least first overall is going to
Speaker 1: get me pretty good. So that's kind of where I
Speaker 1: am with that. The over will Anderson over three and
Speaker 1: a half, which was sweaty there for a while.
Speaker 5: I remember, you got nervous.
Speaker 1: Sweaty that because as soon as that hit, it was
Speaker 1: like bet it, bet it, bet it, bet it, bet it.
Speaker 1: And then and then then I was like, oh boy,
Speaker 1: this was this is going to be bad news for me. Yeah,
Speaker 1: real early in the draft. But at least that's not
Speaker 1: as bad anymore. They put up a bad number on
Speaker 1: Levis at seven and a half, the opened is over
Speaker 1: under at that was able to get in on the
Speaker 1: under at seven and a half.
Speaker 2: But even that, even that, like a week or two ago,
Speaker 2: didn't seem that outlandish, right, I didn't think he'd.
Speaker 1: Get past the raiders. Then, you know, I don't know,
Speaker 1: I you know, it's I don't know. I thought the
Speaker 1: under was a pretty good bet there.
Speaker 5: That was.
Speaker 1: It was pretty juicy. Mounts on sixty bit still took that.
Speaker 1: I this is the one where I said I bet
Speaker 1: it early. I don't really love anymore. I have over
Speaker 1: three and a half receivers. It seems like Smith and
Speaker 1: jib Go, Flowers and Addison are are going to go
Speaker 1: at some point. But it seems like Johnston's fallen out
Speaker 1: of favor with a lot of people. I thought people
Speaker 1: might fall in love with Jalen Hyatt just from like
Speaker 1: the kind of hey, there's not really that O take
Speaker 1: the top off guy, and like, hey, could we add that.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's out of play, even for the
Speaker 1: Chiefs at the last pick of the first round, where
Speaker 1: if you go to Patrick Mahomes and say, hey, dude,
Speaker 1: do you want a burner? Like this is this a
Speaker 1: guy you like? We invested a half a billion dollars
Speaker 1: in you, so do you like this guy?
Speaker 2: It does seem like, you know, for a league that's
Speaker 2: so pass happy and for as many wide receivers that
Speaker 2: are panning out that this draft seemed weird in that
Speaker 2: it seems weird in that respect, like it's not like
Speaker 2: this super wide receiver.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's dead, but I don't like it
Speaker 1: as much as when I made it, you know, kind
Speaker 1: of the first go around with everything I thought people.
Speaker 1: I thought Josh downs would actually start to get some
Speaker 1: buzz too. I thought maybe people start to like him.
Speaker 1: That hasn't really manifested, So that one I don't love
Speaker 1: near as much. I do like Jackson, Swift and Jig.
Speaker 1: But over eleven and a half. They opened that number
Speaker 1: to eleven and a half and I took the over
Speaker 1: on that. It looks like that is going to probably
Speaker 1: pan out, So do like that one. Like I said,
Speaker 1: I have the under five and a half offensive lineman.
Speaker 1: That one is again, it's just a more of a
Speaker 1: number play. The over two and a half tight ends
Speaker 1: as it got over two dollars came in and made
Speaker 1: that one as well, and I took Paris Johnson over Skronsky.
Speaker 1: I know you have Skronsky over.
Speaker 5: Paris john We're I think you're right about that now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I took Paris Johnson over Skronsky in this one.
Speaker 1: It's probably a coin flip at this point, so I
Speaker 1: don't feel super confident in that one. I think it's
Speaker 1: going to be just what people decide that they like.
Speaker 1: I know, Skronsky seems to be more versatile. They're saying
Speaker 1: he could play guard or tackle, and if you want,
Speaker 1: if teams value that, I don't, you know, I don't
Speaker 1: really know. But uh so those are the ones that
Speaker 1: I kind of have in right now, and I said
Speaker 1: a few other ones that I'm eyeing if we get
Speaker 1: at least a little bit more information, but just not
Speaker 1: a not a huge, huge, huge card.
Speaker 2: Yeah, young Gill would take the plus money right now
Speaker 2: because I got a bunch of stinkers here at the top.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I really would.
Speaker 4: I mean, just being honest, you're holding some poison.
Speaker 2: Well here's the thing. All of mine seemed like, oh
Speaker 2: what a great bet I just made. Four days later,
Speaker 2: I'm like, I'm the smartest person in the room, and
Speaker 2: then it just goes the other way. So I had
Speaker 2: CJ strauted plus six ' eighty two and plus three
Speaker 2: forty to go number one. So those are let's take
Speaker 2: two units off the top right there. Uh then I
Speaker 2: have Jackson Smith Jigba, which my best bet is first
Speaker 2: wide out drafted. I have at plus three fifty, he's
Speaker 2: like minus three fifty now, so that's one that I
Speaker 2: could get Ahole bunch back on. But then I have
Speaker 2: him under twelve and a half at plus two hundred,
Speaker 2: and I have him under fourteen and a half under
Speaker 2: fourteen and a half also at plus one twenty. And
Speaker 2: then I have Zay Flowers with a lot of juice
Speaker 2: over twenty one and a half. So I don't know, Like,
Speaker 2: if Jay Flowers goes before the twenty, you know, twenty
Speaker 2: one and down, I'm in trouble.
Speaker 5: Hopefully he goes along.
Speaker 2: Now the other ones, I have Lucas van Ness to
Speaker 2: be a top ten pick at plus two sixty and
Speaker 2: under eleven and a half at plus two fifteen. If
Speaker 2: the Eagles grab him at ten, I could be okay,
Speaker 2: that's the rumor. There's also maybe the Falcons at eight,
Speaker 2: but the Eagles at ten, and the Eagles have been
Speaker 2: rumored to be picking tons.
Speaker 4: Of different people. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Then I have Broderick Jones over thirteen and a half
Speaker 2: from Georgia plus money. I do have Scarronsky over Paris Johnson.
Speaker 2: That does appear to be a loser. I think you're
Speaker 2: gonna win that. I have the over five and a
Speaker 2: half offensive lineman lank a lotta juice mineus to eighty one.
Speaker 2: I did take the over four and a half quarterbacks
Speaker 2: at even money, and then the position of the Patriots
Speaker 2: first selection at quarterback at eight to one, which if
Speaker 2: that hits you can forget about it.
Speaker 5: I have a winning draft and everybody can go to hell.
Speaker 2: So anyway, there's a lot of those that suck, right,
Speaker 2: there's a good handful of those that are sucking, and
Speaker 2: I'm going to need to hit a couple of those
Speaker 2: plus money ones to make up for them and maybe
Speaker 2: get into positive territory.
Speaker 5: Drew, you, what do you got?
Speaker 4: Uh? I?
Speaker 3: When we talked last Wednesday, I was live or die
Speaker 3: with Levice going in the top seven because I nuked
Speaker 3: that under for him that no longer is now. I
Speaker 3: basically am assuming that that's cash. I'm assuming basically top anything,
Speaker 3: top four for Levis's cash. Too many connected people putting
Speaker 3: him four to the colts this morning to think that
Speaker 3: he slides past four if he's even available. Right, So
Speaker 3: Levis is still going to make or break my day, probably,
Speaker 3: but I'm almost certainly going to come out ahead on
Speaker 3: those plays.
Speaker 1: And then.
Speaker 3: I have some wild, wild, wild ones like Tyree Wilson
Speaker 3: to go to in the twenty to one range. Oh,
Speaker 3: that's good, I could Yeah, I think right now, I
Speaker 3: think it's Levis. Levis two would pay me the most.
Speaker 3: What I ended up getting a pretty decent chunk down
Speaker 3: at Circa on the exact number two there. I think
Speaker 3: I'm kind of in the to win ten k Is
Speaker 3: range across those bets. The so Levis going too would
Speaker 3: be the best for me by far.
Speaker 4: CJ. Stroud going fourth.
Speaker 3: I got that at thirty five to one back when
Speaker 3: there was still some uncertainty whether he was going to
Speaker 3: go one or not, because I was like, man, what
Speaker 3: if if they take Bryce young and and then two
Speaker 3: and three aren't even quarterbacks?
Speaker 4: CJ. Stroud could go forth.
Speaker 3: This is before his quote unquote catastrophic visit with the Colts.
Speaker 5: But he walked in and started cursing at him. Hey,
Speaker 5: fuck you guys.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're they're like, we don't like your test scores,
Speaker 1: like you, Let me tell you what I think about
Speaker 1: those test scores, buddy.
Speaker 2: Way those test scores were referring Those test scores were
Speaker 2: referring to leaked You can choose to believe that the
Speaker 2: leak is accurate from these s two cognitive scores, which
Speaker 2: I guess is a it's a cognition it's not an
Speaker 2: IQ test like wondered, like, but it's like this cognition
Speaker 2: test of quarterbacks sit down and they like remove players
Speaker 2: from the screen and you have to like tell them, oh,
Speaker 2: these players ought to be these people, they ought to
Speaker 2: be here whatever it is, like a football IQ thing.
Speaker 5: And he got eighteenth percentile according to the league.
Speaker 4: That's not very good.
Speaker 2: Where's Bryce Young was ninety ninth or ninety eight, So
Speaker 2: that's good. Yeah, that's Drew has done the math that
Speaker 2: is good?
Speaker 4: Are Yeah, honestly whether or not that matters, who cares.
Speaker 4: It's in vogue.
Speaker 3: It's in vogue the cycle. We're predicting what people are
Speaker 3: going to, you know, how are they're how they're coming
Speaker 3: up with their boards. They're using it right, This is
Speaker 3: not speculative, not wonder anymore.
Speaker 5: I don't think I don't think we are. But if
Speaker 5: we are, we're not leaking.
Speaker 1: Okay, we don't want to look at but is out.
Speaker 2: The counter argument to that would be for the cognitive
Speaker 2: for the anti cognition, But like does that does that
Speaker 2: cognitive cognition test make him six does make it Bryce Young?
Speaker 5: Does he make Bryce Young sixty three?
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 2: So I don't know, but apparently, but David Tepper, like
Speaker 2: if all things were equal, David Tepper, for instance, an
Speaker 2: analytics guy, he might take that and say, that's why
Speaker 2: we're drafting Bryce Young.
Speaker 3: That's why we're drafting him. No, it is, and just
Speaker 3: on that note, like it is hysterical. Now that twice
Speaker 3: in reason memory a team made traded up an enormous
Speaker 3: amount of equity to go get a specific player and
Speaker 3: then ultimately drafted a different player like that happened with
Speaker 3: the Niners too. Every single report Niners went up to
Speaker 3: go get mac Jones. If they had not traded up,
Speaker 3: Mac Jones would have been available with them at that pick,
Speaker 3: it turns out. And similarly c J. Stroud, if they
Speaker 3: had stuck at nine, c J. Stroud probably going to
Speaker 3: be available for them at that pick. And so ultimately,
Speaker 3: like two times this has happened now, which is just hysterical.
Speaker 3: But the yeah, best outcome for me for by far
Speaker 3: Leve is going two to whoever.
Speaker 4: I don't care, and then if CJ.
Speaker 3: Stroud ultimately gets picked forth because the Colts did a
Speaker 3: great job at kind of disguising their true interest in him.
Speaker 3: Then thirty five to one coming home for me would
Speaker 3: be pretty sweet. That's kind of it that I have.
Speaker 3: That's sort of live in the really really really long
Speaker 3: shot markets.
Speaker 4: Everything else I got.
Speaker 3: I laid a bunch of juice on a bunch of things,
Speaker 3: the Levis unders, the will Anderson overs. Actually I didn't
Speaker 3: lay a ton of juice on that. Most of my
Speaker 3: Andrews will Anderson over I'm in like minus one twelve.
Speaker 3: Minus one twenty was where I stopped going over three
Speaker 3: and a half. There I stopped. I stopped Levis under
Speaker 3: four and a half at minus two seventy two. That
Speaker 3: was the heaviest I laid on Levis Under the offensive
Speaker 3: lineman we talked about, I laid up to I think
Speaker 3: about minus two eighty and it's it's in like the
Speaker 3: minus four hundred dish range. Now I think again, I
Speaker 3: do think there's plus ev to be had on over
Speaker 3: sixteen and a half offensive players, just because offensive lineman count,
Speaker 3: running backs count tight ends, even if there happened to
Speaker 3: be three quarterbacks, even if they happened to be five, like,
Speaker 3: all of that counts. I don't get any sense that
Speaker 3: there's going to be a late push to use your
Speaker 3: draft capital to take defensive linemen or linebackers or safeties
Speaker 3: or any of that stuff late in the first round.
Speaker 3: So it's going to be all offensive players late as
Speaker 3: far as I can tell you.
Speaker 4: So sixteen and a half it's like a good.
Speaker 2: Number thinking about your scenario about quarterbacks, teams training up
Speaker 2: for quarterbacks. I'm sure I can't remember where the Bears
Speaker 2: traded from, but Mitch t Bisky would have been available.
Speaker 3: Wherever they they picked as well. Yeah, that's true. And
Speaker 3: you know, kind of kind of other kind of funny
Speaker 3: notes for you guys. So you mentioned the Eagles have
Speaker 3: been linked to everyone depending on who you listen to.
Speaker 3: They have done an outstanding job at the misinformation game
Speaker 3: this year.
Speaker 5: For sure, What team do you believe the most and
Speaker 5: what team do you believe.
Speaker 3: The least this year? Believe the least is Bears number one.
Speaker 3: I think the Bears were only really ever. I think
Speaker 3: that Panthers were negotiating against themselves to get up to
Speaker 3: the one I really think that that's likely. I don't
Speaker 3: know that they had any other good offers for the
Speaker 3: one pick. And then the Bears now are kind of.
Speaker 3: They have seem to have a strategy where everyone tells
Speaker 3: someone someone different and then we'll see if that drives
Speaker 3: interest in the nine because I think they want to
Speaker 3: continue to trade down and accumulate assets as opposed to
Speaker 3: take an offensive.
Speaker 4: Tackle ninth or whatever.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think the Bears have been sort of
Speaker 3: the most effective at misinformation Eagles second this year.
Speaker 4: And you know, crazy stuff happens, like some of the
Speaker 4: rumors that were.
Speaker 3: Floated around about Kevon Thibodeau last year all came from
Speaker 3: the Giants and then they ultimately took him forth. You know,
Speaker 3: so teams are getting a little bit better at the
Speaker 3: lion game.
Speaker 5: I think Giants a totally yeah that oh.
Speaker 3: Man, they get the They got the Lyning Award for
Speaker 3: the for last year's draft by a long shot. I
Speaker 3: think they were also probably behind floating the injury stuff
Speaker 3: about Evid Deal that slid him to seven.
Speaker 4: They took him.
Speaker 3: Uh so yeah, there was they. They they were kind
Speaker 3: of the masters of the disinformation game last year. So
Speaker 3: far this year, I think it's the Bears and uh,
Speaker 3: you know, they may end up with Jalen Carr out
Speaker 3: of it all, and he may be a true blue
Speaker 3: chip player for them for the foreseeable future, and you know,
Speaker 3: congrats to them.
Speaker 2: But meanwhile, the the Colts are super straightforward. They're like,
Speaker 2: we're taking Levis, that's our Yes.
Speaker 4: Yeah, they yeah, they at least in history they've been
Speaker 4: the least deceptive.
Speaker 1: The The other thing, just as a disclaimer as we
Speaker 1: get off of here, Gil is that be sure and
Speaker 1: click around in the different markets because there's ways to
Speaker 1: make the exact same bet.
Speaker 5: That's great.
Speaker 1: Points that are that the odds are different. So like,
Speaker 1: so before you make something that seems just crow like,
Speaker 1: do a couple of other clicks and just see because
Speaker 1: there's you know, the draft position of of uh Hennen Hooker,
Speaker 1: for example, said at thirty one and a half and
Speaker 1: it's like minus one thirty one way or but then
Speaker 1: like him to be a first rounder is even money.
Speaker 1: So there's just there's like different ways if you just
Speaker 1: click in the different markets because they're not moving in locksteps,
Speaker 1: so like you can actually kind of save yourself a
Speaker 1: few pennies here and there by making the exact same
Speaker 1: bet just in a different tab.
Speaker 2: Literally you see that every day with different ones. And
Speaker 2: Drew's point also like a lot of people who are
Speaker 2: first time draft betters are gonna hear like, oh he's
Speaker 2: laying minus two sevens, My sweetie, this is not This
Speaker 2: does not translate to other sports, right, Like, we're not
Speaker 2: doing this for a basketball game tonight on the money line,
Speaker 2: right like this is just about an information based Well
Speaker 2: maybe that's right.
Speaker 5: Maybe I should buy a serious press series.
Speaker 4: Press look great to you.
Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know.
Speaker 2: Oh, speaking of that, how are the Warriors still this big?
Speaker 2: Still still like a minus one eighty favorite?
Speaker 5: I mean, and I love the Warriors.
Speaker 3: But come on, I'll be I'll be one hundred percent honest.
Speaker 3: It felt like the entire side of the bracket was
Speaker 3: decided with that Harrison Barnes miss last night.
Speaker 5: Oh you fit? I felt that way too.
Speaker 4: Yeah, like that's the series.
Speaker 3: They probably are winning the second round, Like start start
Speaker 3: figuring out Warriors versus the Sons or the Nuggets.
Speaker 5: Let's go Dubs by the way them. It's all another thing.
Speaker 5: But like ESPN just completely botched that Steph Curry time
Speaker 5: out there esterd Mark Jones had no idea, Doris Burke
Speaker 5: had no idea.
Speaker 2: Milke Anders didn't follow up on it. Jalen Rose only
Speaker 2: mentioned it five minutes into the studio.
Speaker 5: Show was a total botch.
Speaker 4: Okay, real quick, good again, good series, great series.
Speaker 5: We got to run out of here on this. But
Speaker 5: I had a couple of rapid fire questions.
Speaker 2: One also, okay, because I know you like doing this,
Speaker 2: the scenario that takes place that will make your draft,
Speaker 2: then you'll be like, doesn't matter what else happens, I'm good.
Speaker 2: And the scenario that will destroy your.
Speaker 1: Draft, destroy for sure, as if as if Will Anderson
Speaker 1: goes in the top three picks, that's it. Sure. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I thought it was almost a zero percent chance when
Speaker 1: they opened that number. I was like, look, these quarterbacks
Speaker 1: are too heavily coveted that someone's gonna take. It's gonna
Speaker 1: be he's gonna get pushed out, and there's other defensive
Speaker 1: players that could push him out as well. I thought
Speaker 1: that was a lock. If he goes three, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be a not great. Yeah, it's gonna be a not Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a not great. It's that's that's what
Speaker 1: we're gonna be hoping to push like break even, Like
Speaker 1: that's going to be a a break even scenario. I mean,
Speaker 1: I guess for me at this point, I stand to
Speaker 1: make the most money on the on if if there's
Speaker 1: actually over three and a half receivers taking because like
Speaker 1: I said, I bet that super early. I thought it
Speaker 1: was like a bad number. It seemed like Johnston was
Speaker 1: certainly going in the first round. I thought other guys
Speaker 1: would make it in as well. So if four receivers
Speaker 1: end up going in the first round, then it'll be
Speaker 1: a it'll be a pretty nice draft for sure.
Speaker 3: Same worst case as will Anderson gets drafted second by
Speaker 3: by by an absolute country mile that.
Speaker 5: Well, I will be specific second, specifically.
Speaker 3: Second, it would because that sets up almost surely Wilson
Speaker 3: goes three, and then I am literally just pouring sweat
Speaker 3: that the Colts walk up and take will love is Forth,
Speaker 3: like just in like just miserable fifteen minutes of that
Speaker 3: clock counting down to know what the Colts pick is
Speaker 3: because I don't want to count on you know, you know,
Speaker 3: Colts having to take loves Forth if it comes to that.
Speaker 3: So yeah, the best case scenario by far is young Levice,
Speaker 3: Titans trade up to three, take Richardson, Colts begrudgingly takes Stroud.
Speaker 3: I think I think almost everything is green in my account.
Speaker 4: If that happens first four picks.
Speaker 5: I'm just trying to break even at this point, I
Speaker 5: really am.
Speaker 2: I'm just trying to break you because I have enough
Speaker 2: stinkers in there that I'm just going to have to
Speaker 2: hit some of these others. It could definitely be a
Speaker 2: winning draft. Every one of these drafts has been winner.
Speaker 2: But at some point all of us are going to
Speaker 2: have a losing draft. And the irony, as we talked
Speaker 2: about earlier, is this is the one they least want
Speaker 2: a book.
Speaker 5: This could have been it for you as you got live.
Speaker 1: The worst case scenario would be Stroud to go one
Speaker 1: for me because he's the only guy that I'm I
Speaker 1: have no exposure to because I have I mean, I
Speaker 1: have Levis, I have Richardson, I have Hooker, I have Young,
Speaker 1: I have no Stroud, like I never bought into the
Speaker 1: Stroud thing. And so if he goes one out of nowhere,
Speaker 1: then yes, y'all will not hear from me for a
Speaker 1: week after that, Like then we're just out of here.
Speaker 2: If Stroud goes number one, my draft is over. I'm
Speaker 2: a winter and Deuce is all of you.
Speaker 5: I will drop the mic again on everybody I'd be like,
Speaker 5: I all, do we I mean, let's let's end on that.
Speaker 2: Do we hold a small inkling that that could possibly happen?
Speaker 2: That that the Panthers are the biggest bullshitters of everybody.
Speaker 1: The reason I didn't believe it from the get go
Speaker 1: was because I thought the off season moves but that
Speaker 1: the Panthers made weren't of a were of a team
Speaker 1: that thinks that they can win the division like this year,
Speaker 1: and you just plug in Gryce Young and like they
Speaker 1: think they mean, you don't go get Adam Thielen and
Speaker 1: Miles Sanders and Hayden Hurst and like all these guys
Speaker 1: that got like two or three good years left maybe
Speaker 1: tops Like that's not building for the future. That's like
Speaker 1: we we think we can win today, right Like we're
Speaker 1: making signings that we think we can win right now.
Speaker 1: And so that's why I just kind of thought DJ Chark,
Speaker 1: they go signed, you know, all these guys that it
Speaker 1: seems like, no, let's make a run at this pretty
Speaker 1: poor division right like this year. So that was kind
Speaker 1: of that's kind of I don't think I think it's
Speaker 1: I think it's too Yeah.
Speaker 5: I don't think so either, as much as I would
Speaker 5: like to. I don't think so either. Dr I'm guessing
Speaker 5: you don't think so either.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean every year is a little different.
Speaker 4: I was.
Speaker 3: I had less confidence last year that Trayvon Walker was
Speaker 3: going to go one, and we had a very good
Speaker 3: source that said that that was I forget the GM.
Speaker 3: What's what's the jack's GM guy, Charl Balki. We had
Speaker 3: every a very good info that Balki's pick was Trayvon Walker.
Speaker 3: The coach wanted an alignment, The owner leaned the Hutchinson
Speaker 3: and they hashed it all out in the hours before
Speaker 3: the you know, the draft. There could be something like that,
Speaker 3: but from what I understand, at least, this is the
Speaker 3: owner's decision. He's you know, he's kind of driving the
Speaker 3: boat here and young is his guy, so you know.
Speaker 4: He could be talked out of it, but I doubt it.
Speaker 2: Oh, randomly, I lied randomly. Have you ever heard a
Speaker 2: player connected to more teams than Bijon Robinson has been
Speaker 2: connected to?
Speaker 4: No, that's pretty he's every year. This is pretty unique.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I have no idea.
Speaker 3: You want an insane long shot. I don't hate Jon
Speaker 3: Robinson's second running back at like fifty to one there
Speaker 3: was a bunch of weird buzz for Gibbs out of Georgia.
Speaker 5: Today out of Alabama, Alabama.
Speaker 3: A yeah, Junior Gibbs out Alabama. A bunch of weird
Speaker 3: buzz on Gibbs today. And if some like the idea
Speaker 3: that some teams actually have him RB one on their board, Kelly.
Speaker 2: Called us weeks ago at four to one, and he
Speaker 2: never bet it.
Speaker 3: Well you can get you can get b Jon Robinson
Speaker 3: RB two at fifty to one, now, which I do
Speaker 3: think is wow, probably about right, but it's close.
Speaker 5: Okay.
Speaker 2: Last thing, I lot again, team most associated with, Like
Speaker 2: what team and position is in most lockstep?
Speaker 5: Like what's the what team? Like is it the Jets
Speaker 5: offensive line?
Speaker 2: Like what is it where you're like that team is
Speaker 2: absolutely drafting this position, period, no matter how it goes.
Speaker 1: I think the Bengals are taking one of the two
Speaker 1: tight ends, like like it just seems they're just so
Speaker 1: much pointing to that that they don't have anyone at
Speaker 1: that position. They lost everybody they go in, they give
Speaker 1: Burrow like this dream offense and then they make this
Speaker 1: run for whatever. I mean, it's everybody has them taking
Speaker 1: a tight end. Everyone has them taking one of the
Speaker 1: guys that's available there. It seems just too obvious. It's
Speaker 1: like the Nashi hairt you know, It's just like the
Speaker 1: this is so obvious, it's probably just going to happen.
Speaker 1: It seems so credibly obvious that.
Speaker 2: The Steelers are super obvious too. They're they're super honest
Speaker 2: about stuff. We're drafting Najie Harrison. That's all there is too.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Steelers probably in the offensive line market
Speaker 3: this year, although I've heard buzz that they may or
Speaker 3: at least they explored the idea of trading up for
Speaker 3: Gonzalez to cornerback. But I think they just end up
Speaker 3: taking best tackle available in their spot. I think your
Speaker 3: commanders probably are going to go offensive line Gill, so,
Speaker 3: I think they're going to take a tackle.
Speaker 4: I think they've been smoked.
Speaker 3: They've been smoke screening a lot of other stuff that
Speaker 3: to me, and but but actually doing the most due
Speaker 3: diligence on tackles. I think Raiders cornerback would be my
Speaker 3: would be pretty strong link there. I think Giants wide
Speaker 3: receiver is a pretty strong link.
Speaker 5: It's about all it was the last time they had
Speaker 5: a good wide receiver. Yeah, Well, Washington could do all
Speaker 5: kinds of things.
Speaker 2: Bijon c J. Strat there available. By the way, my
Speaker 2: best case scenario this is ridiculous. My best case scenarios
Speaker 2: come is if c J. Stroud goes one and then
Speaker 2: the Patriots trade up and get.
Speaker 5: LEVI Us at two. If those two things happen, y'all
Speaker 5: can go to hell.
Speaker 1: You can just turn the draft off. That's right. See
Speaker 1: you later.
Speaker 2: I figured out everything thanks to Jews rumor. All right, guys,
Speaker 2: we got to run because they got a heart out here.
Speaker 2: I appreciate it. Good luck man, good luck to both
Speaker 2: of you, Good luck to everybody who's betting this. And
Speaker 2: you know, this is one of these things I just
Speaker 2: have to say, like when we plan when we have
Speaker 2: a draft podcast, it's one of the more difficult things
Speaker 2: to decide when to do one.
Speaker 5: You're nodding Drew.
Speaker 2: As well, because it's like stuff is happening so quickly,
Speaker 2: especially now it's all changing, that you can't do it
Speaker 2: too soon because then it becomes stupid, and you can't
Speaker 2: do it too late because then there's no bets whatsoever.
Speaker 2: So there is kind of this very small pocket I
Speaker 2: think between like a week before and five days before
Speaker 2: and you just try to thread the needle on both
Speaker 2: of those things, but there is no exact time to
Speaker 2: do it, and we'll see how valid this is three
Speaker 2: days from now. Drew Densick Dive podcast and the Bety
Speaker 2: Edge podcast from NBC Sports at Whale Underscore Capper, and
Speaker 2: Matt Brown, who is the co host of The Handle,
Speaker 2: which he does with Dave Ross right here at v
Speaker 2: SIN as.
Speaker 5: Well at what is It? M Brown two?
Speaker 1: What is it?
Speaker 5: What is your Matt Brown too? What is your Matt Brown?
Speaker 1: M two?
Speaker 5: You don't even know?
Speaker 2: Yes Brown, M two, Gil Alexander, good luck with all
Speaker 2: your bets in the National Football League you're at.
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening.