WEBVTT - Beating the Book: The 2023 NFL Draft Betting Preview 0:00:03.560 --> 0:00:09.200 Take it down, Man, Now Down Man. 0:00:11.360 --> 0:00:14.040 Monday morning, April twenty fourth, twenty twenty three is Beating 0:00:14.080 --> 0:00:20.000 the Book podcast NFL Draft Special Skill Alexander and then 0:00:20.120 --> 0:00:22.720 what has become a tradition around here from the Deep 0:00:22.800 --> 0:00:25.760 Dive at NBC Sports bet the Edge podcast, Drew Dinsick 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:27.360 joins us, how you doing, Drew's kay. 0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:30.080 I'm well, great to talk to you, Great to see 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:32.040 you again. I haven't seen talked to Matt in a while, 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:34.800 So fired up for today's pod. NFL Draft betting maybe 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:38.840 kind of the closest niche betting market to my heart. 0:00:38.920 --> 0:00:40.440 So this is a great, great opportunity. 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:42.280 Yeah, man, and Matt Brown, who you just referred to 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:46.160 from the handle at Vson, former host of Primetime Action 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:49.960 and a man who loves himself some NFL drafts as well. 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:52.120 Yes, you in Primetime, the greatest show to ever get 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:54.760 canceled on the greatest show ever get canceled on Vison to. 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:57.000 Ever get canceled. I'm just on Vson. I think anywhere else? 0:00:57.480 --> 0:00:57.560 Ye? 0:00:57.760 --> 0:00:58.280 Maybe? Anywhere? 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:03.279 Okay, pretty I did the analysis, Drew. Anywhere on Earth 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:05.840 I think is what I can Anywhere on Earth? Yeah, sure, okay, 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:08.800 So here we are a little more than seventy two hours. 0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:10.560 This is when we're recording it Monday morning, little more 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:13.440 than seventy two hours before the twenty twenty three NFL Draft. 0:01:13.959 --> 0:01:15.480 There's so many ways to go here. 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:15.840 You. 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:19.440 By the way, Drew with Luke swayin Vegas Refund did 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:22.039 a great job on the latest Deep Dive podcast. You 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:24.720 had a great rumor that's out there that I actually 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:28.080 bet because you were so convincing about it. We'll get 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:31.160 into that as well, just how these things are being 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:34.080 allowed at sports books, Who's who's booking them, who's not. 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:35.959 But I just want to start with the macro statement 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:37.640 of it, whether you guys agree with this or not, 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:43.240 modern history. Three days before the NFL Draft, are you 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.600 as uncertain about how this is going to go as 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:48.000 any draft you can remember? 0:01:48.800 --> 0:01:50.440 Yeah? I mean for me for sure. I mean the 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:54.080 last three drafts. I was really confident heading into the 0:01:54.120 --> 0:01:58.680 last three drafts, you know, I mean it was everything 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:01.120 seemed to kind of have at least some different ways 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:02.960 you could draw. Straight line to this happened, and straight 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:04.640 line to this happened, and straight line this happening, And 0:02:04.680 --> 0:02:06.680 then as long as the odds matched up right, I mean, 0:02:06.720 --> 0:02:08.680 is this gonna happen one x amount of times, then 0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:11.280 it was a good bet for me, and less of 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:13.160 those this year up in that way, less of those 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:14.480 yes this year for me. For sure. 0:02:14.520 --> 0:02:15.480 You'd go with that too. 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:18.800 Drue, Yeah, one hundred percent. You know, the uncertainty at 0:02:18.840 --> 0:02:22.480 two is enormous still. You know, usually you wake up 0:02:22.560 --> 0:02:24.520 the Monday morning before the draft and you kind of 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:29.280 go through the NFL insiders, pods, articles, whatever, and there's 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:32.800 like lots of confirmatory stuff in there, and today this 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:35.600 morning was the oppo. It was like all it was 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:38.040 everybody sort of has the same sentiment, which is, we 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:40.799 don't really know what's going to happen, and I think 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:43.440 at all because you know then this is cliches can be. 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:45.520 But the draft starts at two with the Texans, and 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:51.000 whether they ultimately decide to take a quarterback, trade the 0:02:51.000 --> 0:02:54.320 pick for presumably someone taking a quarterback or draft a 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:57.880 defender really sends the draft in two different directions, because 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:00.560 you know, we know that at three the Ardinals would 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:04.400 most like to trade down. But if you know, if 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:07.600 there's not demand for the quarterback market because Houston takes 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:10.000 the defender, then all of a sudden, they're not going 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:12.520 to get an offer that's worthy, you know, and you know, 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:15.880 so you can definitely see a situation kind of a 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:20.120 where quarterbacks go early, early, early, and then b where 0:03:20.280 --> 0:03:22.880 you know, they slide because it's just defense at the top. 0:03:22.960 --> 0:03:26.000 And you know, right now, I would put it something 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:29.520 like seventy ish percent that the two second overall pick 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:33.840 is a quarterback. But even that is still not anywhere 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:35.960 close to as likely as what we would know in 0:03:36.080 --> 0:03:36.640 years past. 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:38.600 Okay, so let's let's repeat that because you said it 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:41.560 up beautifully. So the one thing we think we do know, 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:44.480 and for the purpose of this discussion, I guess we 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:46.640 have to go with this, is that the Panthers are 0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:49.360 taking Bryce Young at one. We'll put that at ninety 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:52.760 one percent. Ninety nine point five percent. Yes, yeah, that 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:55.680 sounds good. Okay, so it does start it too, And 0:03:55.720 --> 0:04:00.640 you laid out the three snario So Texans keep choose quarterback, which, again, 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:05.760 by their franchise, you would think logically they should Texans 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:08.960 keep and they pick defense if in fact, Bryce Young 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:12.040 is so highly tiered by them and everybody else is 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:14.240 so far below that that they're just not interested in 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:17.440 anybody else and they're unwilling to trade to one, because 0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:20.400 that would be double the mistake after the old Davis 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:23.800 Mills fourth and twelve, fourth and twenty lovey going for 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:26.839 two game to end less seas in which, by the way, 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:28.719 Matt Matt said it best just now in a numbers 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:30.119 game could go down. 0:04:31.120 --> 0:04:32.760 How did you say it as the most egregious winn. 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:35.080 I agreegious win, at least in recent memory. Because if 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:37.120 if the whole thing was we're not actually we're not 0:04:37.120 --> 0:04:38.840 going to take a quarterback now because we we had 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:40.760 a heart set on Bryce Young And if that, if 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:44.320 that's the case, you win this meaningless game. You go 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:46.960 for two with a minute thirty seven, All these different 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:49.840 all these different things to point to just an egregious 0:04:49.839 --> 0:04:50.400 win for sure. 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:53.440 And then the third option is Houston trades, right, and 0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:55.920 a team that would trade in would obviously be trading 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:59.839 in for a quarterback. So all right, let's go with 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:02.760 each one of those scenarios. So, because you were just 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:05.039 alluding to it, which which I find interesting, as you said, 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:07.680 if they decided to go defense, this is sort of 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:11.160 the counterintuitive thing. You said, if they decide to go defense, 0:05:11.560 --> 0:05:15.400 it doesn't make the run on quarterbacks more hairy. It 0:05:15.440 --> 0:05:16.800 does the opposite in your. 0:05:16.720 --> 0:05:19.159 Opinion, Yeah, I mean, I really think so. 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:23.080 The idea because is, you know, this is all about 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:26.760 the AFC South, right, there are three there are three 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:28.360 teams in the a FC South that don't have a 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:32.440 quarterback of the future, and they all have draft assets 0:05:32.480 --> 0:05:35.720 at the top eleven picks of this year's draft, and 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:38.760 those three teams kind of jockeying for position in terms 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:42.719 of who's taking who, when you know it's the Titans 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:46.000 really only have to give up the future to move 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:49.280 up to three in order to keep the you know, 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:52.800 the Colts from getting their guy. If you know, the 0:05:53.279 --> 0:05:56.159 Texans take a quarterback or a quarterback goes to I 0:05:56.200 --> 0:06:00.760 should say so it's you know, to me, at least 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.479 Titans and anyone else kind of in the mix for 0:06:03.520 --> 0:06:05.680 a quarterback in the top eleven picks of the draft 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:09.000 can stand pat and see who falls to them if 0:06:09.600 --> 0:06:11.320 quarterback do not go two and three. 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:14.279 So if a defensive player goes two and by the way, 0:06:14.279 --> 0:06:16.280 on your podcast, you were saying you and Luke were 0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:20.279 saying Vegas refund that it appears that if the Texans 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:25.359 went defense, they prefer they prefer Tyree Wilson now over 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:28.680 will Anderson. That seems to be the thing, and that 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:31.760 if they went defense, the Cardinals would be more likely 0:06:31.839 --> 0:06:34.400 to go Stan Patten go defense because the trade offers 0:06:34.400 --> 0:06:36.839 wouldn't come pouring in, and then the Colts would have 0:06:36.960 --> 0:06:39.800 Levis fall into their laps at four. That would be 0:06:39.880 --> 0:06:45.960 that scenario Stroud Anderson fall. The scenario where the scenario 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:47.520 and this is what Matt was saying, Now I turn 0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:51.560 a mat you have a scenario where you believe that 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:54.480 you have not eliminated the possibility of this going quarterback 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:56.280 quarterback quarterback quarterback. 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:00.880 Just I've not removed that from a possibility here, because, 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:02.920 like you know, we all do this. I'm sure whenever 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:05.480 we're trying to we're trying to go through like three 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:07.400 or four likely scenarios and then we can at least 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:08.840 try and figure out, Okay, is there a bet to 0:07:08.880 --> 0:07:10.680 be made if this scenario plays out? If this scenario 0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:13.080 plays I have this scenario plays out. I mean again, 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:15.600 I said this on your show just just a little 0:07:15.600 --> 0:07:18.240 bit earlier. It is very hard to tank in the NFL. 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:19.600 I thought Seattle was going to be one of the 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:21.280 worst teams in the NFL. Last year a better an 0:07:21.280 --> 0:07:23.680 all under on that team, and then you stumble into 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:27.160 wins and teams underperform and things happen. So, if you're 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:29.640 the Texans as a franchise, just to assume that you're 0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:31.240 going to have one of the top two picks next 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:33.360 year to get one of these guys that, by the way, 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:36.720 we've all heard this can't miss prospect and all the 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:37.320 greatest guys. 0:07:37.760 --> 0:07:40.080 They said this about this group last. 0:07:39.880 --> 0:07:41.760 Year, right right, It's like, yeah, don't draft a quarterback 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:43.120 last year because this year and then we get to 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:44.320 this year, it's kind of like, all of these guys 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:46.920 aren't that good. It'll be the same thing next year, 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:49.200 you know. And so to think that you're going to 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:51.920 be in the scenario to get may or to get 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:53.240 Williams next year, you have to have one of the 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:54.920 top two picks, and if not, you're going to trade 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:56.920 in to one of those top two picks, and they 0:07:57.000 --> 0:07:58.960 might not whoever has those picks might not want to 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:00.920 trade with you, and they might one of those two guys. 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:02.600 And so I don't know, you find yourself in a 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:05.120 pretty nique scenario right here, in which I don't know 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:06.920 if you pass on a quarterback. And if that's the case, 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.120 then I think there is a Then it starts to 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:12.160 get the other teams out there that are quarterback needed 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:15.000 to start calling that Cardinal squad and say, hey man, look, 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:17.520 you need a bunch of players. And even if we 0:08:17.560 --> 0:08:19.400 give you an extra couple of mid round picks or 0:08:19.440 --> 0:08:21.200 something like that, for us to do a little swapperoo 0:08:21.280 --> 0:08:23.400 right here, it makes a lot of sense for you 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:25.160 because you are dead in the water. You're not gonna 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:27.240 win any games in twenty twenty four, twenty twenty three, 0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:29.400 so let's go ahead and start building that roster up. 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:30.880 All right, Drew, So, but I asked you to put 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:33.600 a percentage chance. I think you started to do this 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:37.560 on which of these scenarios happens at two. Who's the 0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:39.800 favorite right now, three days before the draft? 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:40.720 What's the favorite? 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:44.240 Yes, a quarterback going second has to be the favorite 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:46.800 for me for a lot of reasons. And I think 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:48.160 that kind of spelled it out. 0:08:48.240 --> 0:08:49.440 But quarterback either. 0:08:49.240 --> 0:08:53.120 Way, quarterback either way? Right, I'll give you sixty. Okay, 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:56.720 So again, you're kind of reading all the tea leaves 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:58.959 and getting all the info from the insiders across the 0:08:59.080 --> 0:09:01.439 NFL today, being like we don't know what's happening at two. 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:05.040 Like that to me may mean that the Texans have 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:07.960 a deal in principle, assuming that Bryce Young actually goes on, 0:09:08.400 --> 0:09:10.920 they may have a deal in principle. That's entirely possible. 0:09:11.120 --> 0:09:13.280 But I would put that at maybe ten percent. I 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:16.040 would put sixty percent that the type the Texans kind 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:18.959 of just get over there, you know, the feeling of 0:09:20.040 --> 0:09:22.840 disappointment of losing out on Bryce Young and take the 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:25.199 top quarterback on their board, who I think is love us. 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:28.640 I think that's probably like sixty percent chance. And then 0:09:28.920 --> 0:09:31.200 I would have about a thirty percent chance that they 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:34.920 actually do punt on quarterback entirely and take a defender 0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:38.760 there because you know, to Matt's point, like the idea 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:41.920 of walking, you know, you're going to sell tickets to 0:09:41.960 --> 0:09:45.080 your fanbase. So we're running it back with Davis Mills 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:48.840 in case keenum like what, I don't realize. I don't 0:09:48.880 --> 0:09:52.280 really know how you can, you know, make that play 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:54.600 out eventually. And you know, there's been a lot of 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:57.240 speculation that they've done a ton of due diligence on 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:01.040 Hended Hooker. But if you're taking him at like twelve 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:03.080 or even trading back in or taking him at the 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:06.800 top of the second round, that's a tough sell. So 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:09.160 you know, I think ultimately I think they kind of 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:11.680 cooler heads prevail and they come around and they just 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:14.800 take their top QB available, who I think is love Us. 0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:19.840 And you know, the ten percent chance that they have 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:21.840 a deal in principle with some other team coming up, 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:24.880 I'm assuming it is for leve Us because you know, 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:27.000 the only thing that you can say with the kind 0:10:27.000 --> 0:10:31.720 of you know, not cloak and dagger speculatory stuff, but 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:34.800 you know pretty clearly the Cults are in a situation 0:10:34.920 --> 0:10:38.240 where they need a quarterback who can start relatively soon. 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:41.800 They've been very candid and they always are about who 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:44.960 they like, and it's love Us. And you know, I 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:48.959 think the idea of any team trading into the top 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:53.400 two or three is to jump the Colts for that player. 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:57.160 So you know, I would guess that there is a 0:10:57.160 --> 0:10:59.319 realistic chance that somebody trades into the two to take 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:02.439 love Us, And then I would say that there's probably 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:04.120 the most likely I'll come as the Texans. 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:06.800 Just chill out and do the right thing. 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:10.679 This has nothing to do with anything in terms of 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:13.160 a bet, but it does deserve repeating here where it's like, 0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:16.400 and it seems like whatever happened in the college football 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:18.920 season matters not at all. So like every time Will 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:21.679 Levis had a big moment, he came up small this 0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:23.960 last year in college football and CJ Stroud last night 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:27.880 looked was crushing George's defense at Ohio State. So like, 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:29.760 and none of that seems to matter, right, like we 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:33.439 just forget. It's like, whatever happened, it doesn't matter. But 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:35.719 by the way, the random story also, I happened to 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:38.880 live in a building. It's a pair of buildings in 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:42.240 the middle of the strip here. Antonio Pierce, the Raiders 0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:45.000 linebacker coach, lives in the other building, but we share 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:48.640 a parking area, and so the Valets are always talking 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.240 to him. I happen to be there. We leave at 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:54.120 the same time in the morning. Antonio Pierce is just 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:56.840 gushing about Will Levis. He's like, oh yeah, he's like 0:11:57.640 --> 0:12:00.760 he's like, he's like, he's a linebacker rose at seventy 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:04.160 yards downfield. So all of these teams become so fixated 0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:07.480 on this pro type, right, it's amazing. 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:09.960 I think you know what's kind of funny. Last time, 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:12.520 I mean, you and Matt did a draft pod. I 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:16.160 think your colleague Lombardi was part of the picture as well, 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:20.960 and he was just steadfastly anti Justin Fields in that podcast, 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:23.160 to the point where going back and listening to it 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:26.679 would probably be funny, fun and funny, right. And this 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:31.120 cycles as little as Lombardi saw I saw eye with 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:34.280 him in that moment, this cycle. Almost everything he said 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:37.800 as lined up exactly with what I'm hearing from NFL insiders, 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:40.719 and the Levis stuff is, you know, like the linebacker 0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:43.559 coaches might like the Levis from the physical side of things, 0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:46.760 but it's almost all the mental that's kind of given 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:49.080 him the leg up on a lot of draft boards, 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:52.160 like teams that are not even at all really seriously 0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:55.360 considering quarterbacks in the draft. I've seen and heard what 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:58.000 they're you know, how they rate ranked quarterbacks. And Levis's 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:02.800 QB two almost unanimously after Bryce Young. And it comes 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:04.920 down to the way he scored on the cognition test. 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:07.600 It comes down to the fact that he was running 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:08.920 a more pro style system. 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:09.480 Uh. 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:13.160 And the idea that Ohio State you know has, you know, 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:18.840 just is putting quarterbacks into into the NFL without as 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.679 much preparation as they would need to be able to, 0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:24.880 you know, to to to play the position well on 0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:27.600 day one. I think is sort of the kind of 0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:31.199 common mindset among the NFL, you know, front offices right now, but. 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:33.920 We don't say we don't say that about Alabama quarterbacks though. 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:36.640 I always think it's funny with because we have the 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:39.440 same talking point with the two quarterbacks, but it just 0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:41.960 goes in the opposite directions, which is so CJ. Stroud 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:43.760 they're like, yeah, but look at all the guys around him, 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:45.000 I mean, like that's why I say. And then with 0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:46.520 Will Levis, they're like, yeah, but look at all the 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:49.080 guys around him. They were terrible. So it's like we're 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:51.000 just assuming he's going to be better because he had 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:52.880 no talent around him, and with c J. Stroud, we're 0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:54.360 assuming he's going to be worse because he had all 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:56.560 this talent around him. So it's like the same talking 0:13:56.600 --> 0:13:58.600 point just goes in opposite directions with the two guys. 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:00.800 So so you and you and and you and Luke 0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:04.120 alluded to this, redid more than allude to it. You 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:06.480 think there's a scenario where like CJ. Stroud could fall 0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:09.679 into Aaron Rodgers draft mode, which is that this guy 0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:12.040 who at one point was a four dollars favorite to 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:15.600 be the number one pick. Yeah, if he gets past Tennessee, 0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:18.240 Let's say Tennessee holds their pick at eleven, he could 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:20.440 be in free fall at that point. Like that scenario 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:21.440 is possible. 0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:26.160 You always always always run into this where a player 0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:30.160 who is available when he was not expected to be available, 0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:33.640 teams will by default already you know, they've they've already 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:37.240 kind of they've already kind of drawn a red line 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:39.560 through that player when they go through their preparation. 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:41.360 We're not even going to vet him. We're not going 0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:42.080 to do our due. 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:45.240 Diligence, and so you know, they may just pass out 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:48.280 of like, well, we didn't really think that he was 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:50.640 going to be here, so we didn't even really consider it. 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.720 And that's definitely what happened with Aaron Rodgers and a 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:56.600 handful of teams that otherwise you know, were in the 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.240 market to improve their quarterback situation. They just they didn't 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:00.560 think he was going to be there because people thought 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:03.760 he was going to go one. And so yeah, Stroud 0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:06.920 could very well find himself there. You know, I've heard 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:08.760 this is a little cloak and dagger. But you know, 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:12.840 it seems pretty clear that Stroud's visit with the Colts 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:16.200 went poorly, and you know, I think. 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.120 How did not do a run up to the draft? 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:24.080 And Yeah, and honestly, like the outcome that I'm most 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:27.520 excited to see how it plays out by far is 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:33.040 if it goes too you know, Bryce young one Levis 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:37.120 goes to to the Texans, and then Tennessee trades into 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:40.120 the three to take Richardson, and then the Colts are 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:43.520 now on the decision point of we need a quarterback? 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:45.440 What is our plan be here? 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.400 Because I would, honestly, at least from what I've heard, 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:51.680 the likelihood of being Stroud or being you know, just 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:53.920 kind of them just capitulating and taking a guy that 0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:57.600 they didn't have a great, great on is going to 0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:01.800 be fascinating to see. Ball is kind of steadfastly. You know, 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:04.680 he's not a guy that's going to trade up draft equity, 0:16:04.760 --> 0:16:07.600 like he's not. He's not trading up even if you know, 0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:11.400 the worst case scenario plays out. And so I'd be 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:13.880 fascinated to see if Plan B for them is do 0:16:13.920 --> 0:16:16.120 they make another run at Lamar Jackson, do they make 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:18.440 a take, do they take a swing on Trey Lance, Like, 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:20.880 there's definitely sort of a lot of other plan b's 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:24.840 there that may kind of create true unknown with that 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:27.880 fourth pick as opposed to just automatically taken Stroud. 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:30.560 But with with the four quarterbacks, would we do are 0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:33.200 we all in agreement here that like the dead floor 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:35.320 for the four that we assume are going to the 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:38.320 first round, they're all gone by twenty right? Like that 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:40.640 that's like the dead floor because then at that point 0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:42.520 you would have to make it through Tennessee, you'd have 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:44.000 to make it through New England, you have to make 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:47.600 it through washingtonsh So they say that's given. They say, Sam, 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:50.920 how if someone's there? And then and then you get 0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:54.120 through Tampa who can't be loving their their situation either, 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:56.040 And then and then you have that luxury pick for Seattle, 0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:57.480 which is their second pick in the first round. 0:16:57.560 --> 0:16:59.880 Well, what you're both alluding to is in that free fall, 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.360 if the free fall of Stroud happened, it would be 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.320 it would be multiple teams right that would be shocked 0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:07.399 that he was there and would have to all of 0:17:07.440 --> 0:17:09.679 a sudden throw out everything they've talked about, be like 0:17:10.280 --> 0:17:11.920 are we taking this guy? Yeah, Like we have to 0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:13.880 we kind of have to take him, right. We can't 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:16.240 not take him until the fans were going with Sam Howel. 0:17:16.920 --> 0:17:20.600 Right, That's why I have put like, even if even 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:23.360 if the craziest scenario quarterback plays out, I still think 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:26.320 twenty is the like dead floor for the four to 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:29.840 go because it would be several several teams that need 0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:32.280 quarterbacks who then would have to just pass on these 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:34.480 guys like in just over and over and over again. 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:37.679 Okay, I Drew is not liking that. 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:39.159 You don't like that, Drew, Well, no, I just mean 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:41.879 the command the commanders have already, they already have to 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:45.040 kind of explain why Sam Howel's the choice over Lamar Jackson's. 0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:48.000 You don't know, he threw eleven completed forward passes. What 0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:48.720 are you talking about? 0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:53.480 Yeah, yeah, yeah, I like, like, uh uh yeah, I yeah. 0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:55.919 I really am excited to see how it plays out. Surely, 0:17:56.080 --> 0:17:58.919 like this could all be, you know, kind of hollow 0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:02.920 speculation because we know, you know, the likes of the 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:05.480 Seahawks and the Lions, who were always dark horses to 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:08.080 take quarterbacks. They could have a higher grade on Stroud 0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:10.919 than any of us realized. I definitely don't know that 0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:12.120 for sure, that's true. 0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:14.800 Again, I didn't even mention tit at eighteen, like that's 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:17.240 a that's a luxury. Again, that's the second first round pick, right. 0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:19.760 Yeah, oh yeah yeah, so yeah, to that point, the 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:22.760 idea of Detroit passing on him, Seattle passing on him 0:18:22.800 --> 0:18:26.000 twice is really, really, really really a stretch. 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:27.240 So I agree, I think. 0:18:27.200 --> 0:18:29.639 Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think I think realistically him making 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:32.920 it past the Seahawks a second time is a is 0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:35.719 a stretch. They're kind of in that mix too, so yeah, yeah, 0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:37.840 So I think C. J. Strouds floor is probably eighteen 0:18:37.920 --> 0:18:38.560 nineteen twenty. 0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:41.720 Anthony Richardson, as you guys pointed out, has to has 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.720