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Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Gerdusky. Thank

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Speaker 1: you all for being here again. I need to start

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Speaker 1: off the show with a correction from Thursdays All Ask

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Speaker 1: Me Anything show. I had a listener named Brock who

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Speaker 1: asked me about the Jewish votesince October seventh, and I

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Speaker 1: had some kind of brain fog. I don't know what

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Speaker 1: was going on. I promise you I don't use drugs,

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Speaker 1: so I can't even blame it on that. But I

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Speaker 1: had a brain freeze and I forgot what year October

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Speaker 1: seventh happened, and I for some reason assumed it was

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Speaker 1: last year and it was this year. It was like

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Speaker 1: maybe sorry, I thought it was like maybe this year,

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Speaker 1: and it was like two years ago. So we have had,

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Speaker 1: I said, the only election we've had since then. It

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Speaker 1: is the New York City mayor of Virginia, governor, a

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Speaker 1: New Jersey governor election, and we had a presidential election

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Speaker 1: that I completely forgot about. So Brock, I want to

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Speaker 1: correct myself for you and for any listeners who care

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Speaker 1: about this topic. So the organization that I mentioned, there's

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Speaker 1: an organization that looks at the Jewish vote every single

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Speaker 1: year and they say that they are a nonpartisan organization,

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Speaker 1: but they are liberal hacks, and I remembered it after

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Speaker 1: the podcast was over, oh over last week. It's called

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Speaker 1: the Jewish Electoral Institute. The Jewish Electoral Institute, whose numbers

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Speaker 1: I never trust, but the media post them because they

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Speaker 1: are the first ones who come out with numbers of

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Speaker 1: the Jewish vote. They said that Harris won the Jewish

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Speaker 1: vote seventy one to twenty six. That's what you'll see

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Speaker 1: that number in the media a lot if you look

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Speaker 1: it up. It comes from them. They are partisan hacks.

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Speaker 1: They should be ignored. The Pew Research Center, which had

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Speaker 1: a very deep dive investigation into the election of different demographics,

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Speaker 1: of multiple demographics, looked at the Jewish vote and said

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Speaker 1: it was more like sixty three to thirty five in

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Speaker 1: favor of Harris. So Harris did win the Jewish vote,

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Speaker 1: but that is actually a swing towards Republicans. Now, Pew

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Speaker 1: did not look at the election from twenty twenty. I

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Speaker 1: looked at other data analysis has said that Trump went

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Speaker 1: around twenty five twenty six percent, So we might have

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Speaker 1: seen about a twenty point swing between what the Democrats

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Speaker 1: lost and what Republicans gained. Overall, with the Jewish vote.

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Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four, Steve Sailor, who is very controversial

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Speaker 1: so the media will not cover him fairly or accurately,

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Speaker 1: he actually looked at Jewish donors and this is really fascinating.

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Speaker 1: In twenty twenty, Jews gave Democrats more money if in

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Speaker 1: their presidential and congressional runs Thanblican Republicans five hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventeen million for Democrats four hundred and eleven million for Republicans.

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Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four, Jewish donors for Democrats dropped their

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Speaker 1: donations by thirty three percent, while increasing their giving to

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Speaker 1: Republican presidential candidates obviously Trump and Republicans running for Congress

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Speaker 1: by twenty nine percent. So in twenty twenty four, Republicans

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Speaker 1: actually received more money from Jewish donors than Democrats did,

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Speaker 1: by a five hundred and twenty nine million dollar margin

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Speaker 1: for Republicans and three hundred and forty four million for Democrats.

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Speaker 1: That's very insightful. It really does speak to where the

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Speaker 1: voters or especially the donors, really feel like the party

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Speaker 1: is representing the best interests of Jewish Americans. I think

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Speaker 1: that that's very fascinating. So the Jewish votees swung towards

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Speaker 1: Republicans by a good measure, but Jewish donors really swung

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Speaker 1: towards Republicans. And obviously, if you look at the mayor's election,

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Speaker 1: or Quama won the Jewish vote certainly, and in New Jersey,

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Speaker 1: the Jewish vote swung heavily towards the Republican candidate for

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Speaker 1: the governor of New Jersey. All right, enough of the

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Speaker 1: Jewish vote. We're going to talk about affordability this episode.

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Speaker 1: It is the topic, the word, the buzzword that the

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Speaker 1: media is grabbing onto, that the White House is grabbing onto,

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Speaker 1: that Congress is talking about ever since Mondani won in

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Speaker 1: New York City, speaking about the issue of rents and

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Speaker 1: the costs of transportation, all the rest of the things

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Speaker 1: that are playing in New Yorkers, And obviously New York

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Speaker 1: is one of the most expensive places in the country.

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Speaker 2: I live in.

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Speaker 1: There is a real feeling in the country. And I've

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Speaker 1: talked to people of many different income brackets, many different

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Speaker 1: They work in different sectors of the economy, they are

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Speaker 1: in different age groups, where they have genuine anxiety over

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Speaker 1: the state of the economy. The issue that they feel

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Speaker 1: like they are barely getting by or not getting by

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Speaker 1: or just getting by inflation. I think you know, inflation

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Speaker 1: is down year to year from the height of when

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Speaker 1: Biden was presidency, but prices overall have not fallen because

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Speaker 1: we're not in a deflationary period, right, So just inflation

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Speaker 1: is slowed, but we are in a new normal, whether

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Speaker 1: we like it or not. Our everyday prices we're not

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Speaker 1: going back to twenty twenty. And I think that's what

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Speaker 1: angers a lot of voters who felt like, let's get

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Speaker 1: Trump in office. He'll have a magic wand somehow and

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Speaker 1: will return to a pre COVID world that I just

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Speaker 1: don't see that we're ever going to come down to.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: We all know certain things in our everyday lives have

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Speaker 1: gone up, right, Food prices, electric bills, home prices have budge.

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Speaker 1: Some of it is related to Trump's tariffs, right, like

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Speaker 1: clothes clothes are much more expensive, but some of it,

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Speaker 1: some of and some of them by the like electricity

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Speaker 1: has nothing to do with tariffs, right, because it's the

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Speaker 1: data centers and other things are going on. But according

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Speaker 1: to CBS News, it's very unusual which items are seeing

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Speaker 1: the biggest spikes and which ones are decreasing, right, So

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Speaker 1: according to CBS News, home appliances, smartphones, gasoline, computer software, televisions,

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Speaker 1: they're all cheaper than they were in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: Furniture is actually stagnant. There's not been an explosion in

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Speaker 1: the increasing cost of furniture since twenty twenty two. Interestingly,

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Speaker 1: interestingly enough, gasoline, when adjusted for inflation, is actually cheaper

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five than it was in nineteen seventy three.

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Speaker 1: Nothing to do with the conversation, but I saw that,

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Speaker 1: and I was like, I gotta say to somebody Otherwise

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Speaker 1: I'm just up at Wikipedia middle of the night looking

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Speaker 1: at random gas prices throughout the years, so items have

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Speaker 1: increased for other things, though, things in our daily lives

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Speaker 1: that we feel we have to kind of have. Car

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Speaker 1: insurance is up fifty five percent since twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: Home insurance is up thirteen percent. Medical equipment is up

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Speaker 1: thirteen percent. Dental services are up eighteen percent, pet food

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Speaker 1: is up twenty percent. Tools and hardware are up twelve percent.

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Speaker 1: Airline fees are up twenty two percent. I fly all

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Speaker 1: the time. I trust my feeling this and overall food

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Speaker 1: is up eighteen percent. Now that's not every item but

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Speaker 1: that is you know, the overall number since twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: Why is this?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, some of it is terrorf related, which is what

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Speaker 1: the media has been talking about NonStop. If you read

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Speaker 1: nothing besides the mainstream media, it is tariffs are responsible

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Speaker 1: for everything. But it doesn't it doesn't make sense, right,

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Speaker 1: Tariffs are not responsible for your home insurance or your

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Speaker 1: car insurance. It's an easy out, It's an easy explanation,

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Speaker 1: especially from a media that looks to blame Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: for absolutely everything.

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Speaker 2: Part of it, and part of.

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Speaker 1: It is Trump's fault and Republican's fault. Because of a

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Speaker 1: new study I read from MIT, it said forty two

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Speaker 1: per of all inflation is related to deficits spending. Every

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Speaker 1: time the government is posting a trillion dollar deficit, you

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Speaker 1: are losing purchasing power of your of your dollar.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 1: It is the tax that they are there. You know,

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Speaker 1: Democrats say, let's do a middle class tax cut. Republicans say,

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Speaker 1: that's a tax cunt everybody. Every time they pass and inflation,

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Speaker 1: it is a tax increase without them telling you about it.

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Speaker 1: And that is really a big chunk of why your

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Speaker 1: dollar is not going as far and hasn't for quite

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Speaker 1: some time. Now, This doesn't mean that all companies are

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Speaker 1: you know that because our daily lives are the cost

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Speaker 1: of our daily lives are increasing, that all these companies

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Speaker 1: are about to fail or are failing. There was a

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Speaker 1: new consumerer sentiment is down. But price But but eighty

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Speaker 1: five percent of firms and the sm P five hundred

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Speaker 1: actually beat their Q three quarterly profit estimates. Right, companies

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Speaker 1: are doing fairly well, like the sky isn't falling. I'm

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Speaker 1: not saying things are great. I'm not trying to overstate it.

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Speaker 1: I'm not doing I'm not bag Dad Bob saying no,

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Speaker 1: everything is cheap and easy.

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Speaker 2: It's not.

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Speaker 1: But anyone telling you that you should, you know, consider

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Speaker 1: hiding your money in a shoe box and then bearing

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Speaker 1: it is probably overstating the situation. Earnings are strong for companies,

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Speaker 1: which explains the resiliency of the stock market. So inflation

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Speaker 1: is down from where it was during the Biden presidency.

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Speaker 1: It's ticked up slightly. Over All, the three percent companies

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Speaker 1: are showing strong profits. The stock market is strong. But

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Speaker 1: the cost increase that really has ratchet up since the

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Speaker 1: recession hasn't come down. Right, The new normal is hurting

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Speaker 1: working class people the most. In twenty twenty five, twenty

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Speaker 1: five percent of families are living paycheck to paycheck and

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Speaker 1: increasingly living on their credit cards. That's actually down, believe

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Speaker 1: it or not, the amount of people living paid it

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Speaker 1: to paycheck according to polling from twenty twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 1: where it was twenty nine percent. You've may have heard

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Speaker 1: a lot about delinquencies, right. People are delinquent on their mortgages,

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Speaker 1: delinquent on their our credit cards, are on their cars.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about a broader context to really

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Speaker 1: understand when they say delinquencies where they're at. When you

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Speaker 1: look at the last twenty two years, student loan delinquencies

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Speaker 1: were usually eight point five percent, credit cards six point five,

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Speaker 1: mortgages four auto and Audi cars two point five, autos

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Speaker 1: two point five, and helocks two percent. Currently, student loans

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Speaker 1: are way up there, fourteen percent, way way higher than normal.

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Speaker 1: Credit cards are slightly up there at seven point one percent,

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Speaker 1: and auto is up to three percent. It's up, but

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Speaker 1: maybe it's actually it's up a little bit, but it's

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Speaker 1: not up terribly. It's up by half a point.

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Speaker 2: Mortgages and helocks are actually.

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Speaker 1: Below the national average. For the last twenty two years,

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Speaker 1: and that's because inflation is growing faster than meeting incomes

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Speaker 1: for lower and middle class people, people who are more

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Speaker 1: dependent on the credit card, who you know, maybe can't

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Speaker 1: afford their monthly car payment, but either they don't own

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Speaker 1: a house, they're living in an apartment, or you know,

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Speaker 1: they have a house that is a more reasonable cost

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Speaker 1: and it's what they prioritize. This went really into overdrive

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Speaker 1: around February, but it's it's been happening for some time,

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Speaker 1: and it probably explains why you saw shifts among white

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Speaker 1: working class voters in the presidential election and the last

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Speaker 1: governorship elections of a few weeks ago. Working class voters,

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Speaker 1: white working class voters and latinos because they're both at

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Speaker 1: the same are very similar economic standings, right, and one

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Speaker 1: didn't just flip. They both moved. They both went in

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Speaker 1: the same direction. They're both feeling this economic pressure that

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Speaker 1: the average middle and lower income person is feeling. A

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Speaker 1: big part of this discussion is a spec actually focused

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Speaker 1: on young people. Unemployment for recent college graduate stands at

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Speaker 1: nine point three percent higher than it was during the

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Speaker 1: Great Recession. This is especially true for STEM graduate. STEM

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Speaker 1: was we were told get a STEM degree, you'll have

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Speaker 1: a job for life. That's not true for a lot

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Speaker 1: of STEM graduates, recent STEM graduates, which makes the conversation

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Speaker 1: over H one b's even more infuriating. Unemployment for sixteen

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Speaker 1: to twenty twenty four year old stands at ten point

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Speaker 1: five percent. This and many of them are in school,

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Speaker 1: but still that's very, very, very high. And I want

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Speaker 1: to understand, want to make listeners understand the political gravity

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Speaker 1: of this when they talk about youth unemployment. It is

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Speaker 1: not just the young people who are feeling this anxiety towards,

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Speaker 1: you know, not having a job, or being underemployed, or

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Speaker 1: having to settle for a job where you didn't get

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Speaker 1: your degree in. It also affects their boomer parents and

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Speaker 1: their gen X parents, right, people who have co signed

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Speaker 1: their student loans, who are saying, hey, my kid got

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Speaker 1: a good degree from a good school, why are they

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Speaker 1: not making what they should They're feeling the nerves too.

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Speaker 1: They're feeling that anxiety too. So although they may be

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Speaker 1: fine in their jobs, they're invested. Their biggest investment is

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Speaker 1: not their house, it's their child. And this is good.

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Speaker 1: This is the trend that's been going on for some time.

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Speaker 1: It didn't just start when Trump became president. It's been happening.

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Speaker 1: Part of the reason that young people are feeling, especially

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Speaker 1: this terrible economy right now, a little bit could be

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Speaker 1: exposure to AI, but I've read a few papers and

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Speaker 1: studies that say that they doubt it. Part of it

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Speaker 1: could be uncertainty. I mean, Trump is a wild man

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Speaker 1: to a lot of people, right So if you're a

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Speaker 1: company and you don't know which way, especially with tariffs

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Speaker 1: are going, maybe you slow down hiring. Part of it

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Speaker 1: could be that they hired a lot of people during

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Speaker 1: the recession and now they don't need workers. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's also a big, big part of it. And this

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Speaker 1: entire context that we're having about rising costs and tariffs

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Speaker 1: and AI and h one b's and all of this nervousness,

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Speaker 1: especially towards younger people and where the stand in the

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Speaker 1: economy happens at the time that Moody's has stated and

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Speaker 1: rated that twenty two states are currently in a recession. Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana,

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Speaker 1: New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode, Island, South Dakota, Virginia, Washington, Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C, West Virginia, and Wyoming. I don't know exactly

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Speaker 1: if what the state of their recession is because only

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Speaker 1: two of those states have reported GDP declines in the

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Speaker 1: first two quarters this year, being Arkansas in Mississippi. Arkansas

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Speaker 1: not even on that list, Mississippi's only one on that list,

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Speaker 1: and none posted job losses. My overall assumption throwing all

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Speaker 1: that data at you is this, the economy is not great,

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Speaker 1: especially if you're a working class, middle class employee, especially

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Speaker 1: if you're a young person. It is a slog and

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Speaker 1: it is not a great time to be unemployed. If

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Speaker 1: there was ever a good time to really be unemployed,

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Speaker 1: but this is not it. I think that what we

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Speaker 1: are dealing with as a society is redjusting to a

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Speaker 1: new normal that we will not feel normal in for

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Speaker 1: a very, very long time. I don't think there's a

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Speaker 1: magic wand that can go back to twenty nineteen. I

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Speaker 1: wish there was. It'd be much easier for me, who

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Speaker 1: works a million jobs seven days a week, could even

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Speaker 1: feel because even I'm sitting there and saying, wow, these

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Speaker 1: prices are getting really expensive. Not that I'm a billionaire,

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Speaker 1: but I'm noticing these on my on my general life,

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Speaker 1: and I make a good income, I work really, really hard.

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Speaker 1: I have employees to sit there and pay for We're

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Speaker 1: all noticing it. And what it will mean if we

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Speaker 1: can't get some kind of restitution by election night is

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Speaker 1: that these swing voters, especially the ones who said let's

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Speaker 1: trust Trump because he can sit there and wave a

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Speaker 1: magic wand they're going to sit there and say, you

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Speaker 1: know what, I'm gonna either stay home or I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: give Democrats a chance. That puts Republicans in a very

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Speaker 1: precarious situation. And they don't have a lot of time

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Speaker 1: to address this, and that's why it's more important than

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Speaker 1: ever they focus on getting Americans back at work and

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Speaker 1: increasing stability in the economy Overall. With me today for

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Speaker 1: this episode is the brilliant John Connie from bright Bart News.

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Speaker 1: He's going to go over all these data, all these numbers,

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Speaker 1: and really make it understandable for people, for fellow college

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Speaker 1: dropouts like me, and for everyone else who's not an economist.

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Speaker 1: That's coming up next. We're having a national conversation around affordability,

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Speaker 1: right especially since Mandani one, you've heard the White House

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Speaker 1: talk about it more, Congress is talking about it more,

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Speaker 1: you write about you, you know. And it's an interesting

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Speaker 1: moment because stocks are up and companies are posting really

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Speaker 1: strong profits, but people are not feeling it. What do

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Speaker 1: use have a sense of the true state of the

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Speaker 1: economy right now? Is it as bad and diret people

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Speaker 1: say it is.

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Speaker 3: No, the economy is not in dire straits. It's doing

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Speaker 3: okay right now. I think there are risks. I do

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Speaker 3: think a lot of the unhappiness that we're hearing from

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Speaker 3: people is really what I'll call like bidenflation hangover unhappiness.

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Speaker 3: The main complaint is that prices are very high. Inflation

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Speaker 3: is still above where most it was for most everybody

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Speaker 3: who's going to watch this lot lives. It went up

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Speaker 3: to the highest level under Biden in forty years, but

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Speaker 3: still at around two and a half to three percent.

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Speaker 3: That's too high. And remember that's two and a half

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Speaker 3: and three percent on top of the giant increases we

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Speaker 3: saw under Biden. So I think people even if we

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Speaker 3: had almost no inflation right now, I think people would

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Speaker 3: still be worried about affordability. We don't have almost no inflation.

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Speaker 3: We have inflation that's still a little bit too high.

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Speaker 3: It needs to be brought down further. But I think

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Speaker 3: it's frankly, I think it's going to take years for

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Speaker 3: people to feel like, to get used to the new

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Speaker 3: price level. I feel it myself. I got to dinner

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Speaker 3: and I think, like, what did I said to my

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Speaker 3: I didn't say it. I thought it to my friend.

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Speaker 3: I was like, did you bring us to like the

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Speaker 3: fanciest restaurant in your town? Because these prices are out

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Speaker 3: of control and it's just the normal restaurant price, right,

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Speaker 3: you know. But yeah, and it makes me feel really old,

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Speaker 3: like I'm like, you know, oh, when I was a boy,

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Speaker 3: my Hamburgers only cost fifty dollars and now they're forty two.

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Speaker 1: I feel it completely. And it's not even across the board.

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Speaker 1: So I was looking at CBS posted a whole of

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Speaker 1: things of what where prices up and where are they down?

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Speaker 1: Certain things they are down, right, Computer software is down,

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Speaker 1: gasoline is down, smartphones is down, home appliance is down,

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Speaker 1: furniture is stagnant. It's even gasoline is actually lower by

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Speaker 1: inflation measures than it was in nineteen seventy three. But

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Speaker 1: then you look at home insurance, pet food, food, hardware.

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Speaker 1: Some of it would make sense that the terror you

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Speaker 1: know on clothes, for example, tariffs clearly have had an impact,

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Speaker 1: but home insurance.

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Speaker 2: They terears have nothing to do with home insurance.

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Speaker 1: So why are we seeing certain things that affect our

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Speaker 1: daily lives? Car insurance is up like twenty percent from

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. Why are certain things just spiking and

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Speaker 1: exploding that affects people's daily lives.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so there's a few reasons for this. The car

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Speaker 3: insurance thing really actually does have to do with the

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Speaker 3: fact that we've made our cars into computers and so

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Speaker 3: that repairs to cars are much more expensive. And I

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Speaker 3: talked to a friend of mine who works in the

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Speaker 3: business of car repair. He said, actually, like the it's

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Speaker 3: easier to total a car, meaning you know, make it

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Speaker 3: unusable than it used to be, because it used to

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Speaker 3: be you got in an accident and you could take

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Speaker 3: some parts out and put parts back in. If you're

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Speaker 3: driving like an electric vehicle, you can't take anything out.

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Speaker 3: It's all basically one big part. And just even hybrids

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Speaker 3: and internal combuntion engine cars are much harder to repair

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Speaker 3: these days, so they're much more expensive. That drives up

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Speaker 3: inflation prices in general. Though I do think that what

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Speaker 3: we're seeing is, like I said, a it's I don't

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Speaker 3: think there's much of a teriff effect. But you named

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Speaker 3: all those things that aren't up much at all, or

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Speaker 3: aren't or are actually down in price that people thought

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Speaker 3: would be more expensive from terraffs, cars, furniture, appliances was

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Speaker 3: a big thing, right, Appliances, We're gonna like, we're gonna

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Speaker 3: see a big increasing applians cost We haven't. Apparel is up,

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Speaker 3: pails up a little bit, though, I mean it's actually

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Speaker 3: not up as much as you know, you might have

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Speaker 3: thought if you were a tariff fear monger. Shoe costs

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Speaker 3: shoes are down, which is weird, all right. So, and

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Speaker 3: one of the things about that is we're not seeing

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Speaker 3: the every thing goes up a lot kind of inflation

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Speaker 3: we saw. I'm bided we are. Some food prices are up,

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Speaker 3: beef is up, egg prices are down a lot.

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Speaker 1: So what were they were so high? I mean they

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Speaker 1: were at one they had the company to go higher.

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Speaker 1: I mean, how many chickens are dead?

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Speaker 3: I mean, like, well, yeah, I mean and also I

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Speaker 3: mean it's one of the reasons. Beef prices, like food,

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Speaker 3: particularly proteins are substitutable. So if egg prices go up,

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Speaker 3: you eat more bacon in the morning, or you or

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Speaker 3: you make pancakes or whatever, you know, beating you shift

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Speaker 3: away from the super expensive stuff. The and the same

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Speaker 3: thing that happens with with beef. Frankly, people okay, you know,

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Speaker 3: I'll buy some chicken instead of buying the you know,

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Speaker 3: the steak, and so people shift their proteins prices come down. Uh,

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Speaker 3: I don't. I know that Trump administration is like lowering

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Speaker 3: tariffs on some foods. That may help a little, but

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Speaker 3: I actually don't think it's going to have a big effect.

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Speaker 1: Well, when it comes to coffee mobile, the biggest costs

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Speaker 1: from food is transportation, right, Transporting food and energy is

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Speaker 1: the biggest cost of food. And something that I have

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Speaker 1: never seen someone write I've kind of thought about it is,

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Speaker 1: as electricity prices have increased, the cost of refrigerating food

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Speaker 1: must be going up because it has to affect everything. Walmart's,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Walmart grocery store, or Kroger's or wherever

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Speaker 1: you're buying. Grosses from their costs are going like your houses,

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Speaker 1: so they're passing those costs on to consumers. Am I

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Speaker 1: crazy for thinking that?

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Speaker 3: No, No, that's a that's actually a really good insight

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Speaker 3: is that when you do have this problem of higher

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Speaker 3: electricity costs, and we actually did a really bad job

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Speaker 3: in this country of preparing ourselves to use more electricity,

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Speaker 3: we really we haven't built enough electricity plants. There's all

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Speaker 3: sorts of reasons for that. You know, a huge part

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Speaker 3: of it is like climate change fears. People were demanding

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Speaker 3: that if you build new electricity plants that they you know,

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Speaker 3: that they only be powered by wind or solar somehow,

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Speaker 3: and you can't. You can't actually do that. And some

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Speaker 3: climate activists actually oppose all expanded energy because they feel

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Speaker 3: like it's actually a bonus to have energy costs more.

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Speaker 3: The more expensive it is, the less we'll use it,

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Speaker 3: and therefore somehow if you know, if it becomes too

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Speaker 3: expensive for you and I to you know, turn on

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Speaker 3: our lights at night, then that'll save the earth from

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Speaker 3: climate change. Obviously that that's that's wrong, but that that

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Speaker 3: really is the part of the idea they discourage the

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Speaker 3: building of new energy generation. I think that now I

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Speaker 3: think we're going to build more electricity, but it's going

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Speaker 3: to take some time.

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Speaker 1: So when you look at the wage growth, right, something

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Speaker 1: that we saw in the first Room administration was very

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Speaker 1: high wage growth among the lower quadrant of workers, right,

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Speaker 1: lower percentile workers. That has not changed now where lower

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Speaker 1: lower class workers are actually making there their wages are

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Speaker 1: growing at the slowest amount unlike they used to grow

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Speaker 1: at the highest amount or in the first time administration.

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Speaker 1: What do you because that that middle tier and lower

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Speaker 1: tier income bracket is who's feeling inflation the worst. And

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Speaker 1: when you saw the New Jersey and Virginia elections, especially

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Speaker 1: the New Jersey elections, it wasn't just a latinos had

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Speaker 1: moved against Trump and they are in that quadrant of

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Speaker 1: the lower class, but also white working classes moved against

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Speaker 1: Republicans in big numbers. Those are they have the same

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Speaker 1: economic levels, So why are those workers not seeing wage

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Speaker 1: growth at at a strong level like they used to?

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Speaker 3: So I think actually we're going to see it. I

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Speaker 3: just think it's too early. A few things are going

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Speaker 3: to drive it one there and this will set a

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Speaker 3: little trickle down economics. Uh, but we there is going

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Speaker 3: to be this investment surge coming from the tax bill

431
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 3: that will actually result in more demand for workers. That

432
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 3: will push up wages, and then the deportations and the

433
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 3: closing off of the border will also help push up wages.

434
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,880
Speaker 3: It's actually funny hearing people complain about this because at

435
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 3: the same time, you keep hearing people complain that we're

436
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 3: going to experience some sort of horrible labor shortage from

437
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:28,399
Speaker 3: Trump's border policies. So I expect that what we've seen

438
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 3: in sort of the lower death siles of income not

439
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 3: performing maybe as well as people had hoped, that that's

440
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 3: actually again. And I hate to keep saying this, like, oh,

441
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:46,919
Speaker 3: it's a hangover from Biden, but look like electing Donald Trump,

442
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 3: you know, like it's not going to change the economy immediately, right,

443
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:55,959
Speaker 3: we are still dealing with Biden policies for a while

444
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 3: and what So what I'd say is like, look, give

445
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 3: some time. I think it will come back. Politically, you know,

446
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 3: the Trump administration has to hope that it comes back

447
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 3: in the next six months, right because sometime around you're

448
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 3: the political guy, not me, but you know, sometime around

449
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 3: next May, people's mindsets will, you know, like they get

450
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 3: fits that's what the economy will be in their mind

451
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 3: till November. So I'm saying it's going to get better.

452
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 3: The political question is does it get better in time?

453
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 3: And do people notice it in time?

454
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 2: Well, is there going to cut range?

455
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 3: You think? I Well, so here's a question. No, unless

456
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 3: we get less of an unless we get a terror.

457
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 3: So we're getting a job's report this week on Thursday.

458
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 3: If the job's report is awful, and by that I

459
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 3: mean probably would have to be negative, so it would

460
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 3: have to show that we've lost jobs. If it comes

461
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 3: in at like thirty forty fifty thousand, that's actually a

462
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:05,439
Speaker 3: pretty good jobs report. It will mean that unemployment is

463
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 3: not rising, we're creating enough jobs to fill the growth

464
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 3: of the economy. That number is a lot lower than

465
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 3: it used to be because we were not admitting a

466
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 3: million illegal aliens every year.

467
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 2: Now that war that mean right, yeah, I mean.

468
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, the millions that were coming in meant that you

469
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,919
Speaker 3: had to be generating, you know, one hundred and twenty

470
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 3: five hundred and fifty two hundred thousand jobs a month

471
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 3: just to keep up with the new entrance. That's a

472
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 3: lot lower now, So like fifty thousand is actually a

473
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 3: pretty good number.

474
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: So eightyps it is about fifty thousand Goldman Sachs as

475
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 1: we've lost one hundred thousand.

476
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 3: So if we get a number like that, then the

477
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 3: Fed will probably cut. If we get a shock, you know, No,

478
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,439
Speaker 3: if we get a positive number and it's you know,

479
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 3: not like three jobs, but you know, tens of thousands,

480
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 3: then I think the Fed stays on hold. I think

481
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 3: that there's a greater risk to the economy right now.

482
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 3: I think the economy is doing okay, but there are

483
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 3: signs of risks to the economy. I think the Fed

484
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 3: should cut in December, just to hold off the risks.

485
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 3: But there's two reasons why they don't want to. One,

486
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 3: I think that they want Trump to fail. I think,

487
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 3: you know that they are political. I don't think that

488
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 3: they look at this and say like, oh, you know,

489
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 3: we better you know. I don't think they want a recession,

490
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 3: but they would, in mind if things go pretty badly

491
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 3: over the next six months, so that you know, people

492
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:47,400
Speaker 3: vote for the Democrats. And I also think that they

493
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 3: have a theory that is wrong, which is that tariffs

494
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 3: are going to cause inflation. And they look and they say,

495
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 3: tariffs didn't cause a lot of inflation yet. But rather

496
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 3: than correcting themselves and be like Oh, well, maybe we

497
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 3: were wrong about that whole terraf inflation thing. They just

498
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 3: keep saying, well, that just means it's going to get

499
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 3: worse in the future, right, So every time we get

500
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:08,399
Speaker 3: we get a price report that shows not a lot

501
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 3: of terror inflation, they're like, oh, yeah, man, but that

502
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 3: means you know it's it's coming. And they're going to

503
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 3: keep saying this at least until May, when Jerome Powell

504
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 3: is leaves the chairmanship. We don't even know if he's

505
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 3: going to leave the FED. By the way, he may

506
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 3: be there for he could. He has a couple more

507
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 3: years in his term as governor, so he could do

508
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 3: something that almost no FED governor is FED chairman has

509
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 3: ever done, which is like stubbornly stay on the FED

510
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 3: when your chairmanship is done. And he shouldn't do that. That

511
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 3: would be irresponsible. It undermines the next chairman. Uh, every

512
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 3: other FED president except one leaves or FED chairman leaves

513
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 3: when their term is done. So but I think we

514
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,479
Speaker 3: may get a change from the Fed in May, but

515
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 3: before that, I don't think they'll cut unless something starts

516
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 3: to go really bad in the economy, meaning like they're

517
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 3: not they're not willing to do like a preemptive like

518
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 3: or precaution cut. They need to see like you know,

519
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 3: people with like you know, tin pans in the streets

520
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 3: like and barrels over their you know, cells, because they.

521
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 2: Don't have any clues.

522
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, the I was looking at different trends on costs

523
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: and and there's not much that you see a dramatic

524
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 1: change from Biden. Like the trajectory of lower income people

525
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 1: to or having having their wages decrease started during Biden,

526
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: and it has been increasing and it just still has continued.

527
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 1: So I don't see that that. And also inflation doesn't

528
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: explain home insurance increases, like it just doesn't explain a

529
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 1: lot of other things. Dental services are up like, so

530
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: it's it's very very strange. The the other thing I

531
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 1: wanted to ask you about was what is going on

532
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 1: with college graduates having such high unemployment rates because that

533
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: is leading to I think a big part of it

534
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: is when young people have high levels of unemployment, it

535
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 1: doesn't just affect them, it affects their parents, grandparents who

536
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 1: like host sign student loans. So the Gen X and

537
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 1: baby boomers who have Gen Z children are like, why

538
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 1: is my kid graduated from a computer science major from

539
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 1: a good college. Why is he unemployed or why is

540
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: he working at Starbucks? He should have a really good

541
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 1: job right now. And they're anger, and you know, anxiety

542
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: about the economy is because of that. Their kids and

543
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 1: doing well. So why are college graduates having such high

544
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 1: unemployment rates?

545
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, I think you're absolutely right. And I

546
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 3: love that insight into the fact that it's not just

547
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 3: the people who are having the trouble getting the jobs.

548
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 3: It's their parents, and actually it's the parents of even

549
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 3: younger kids. If you've got a kid in high school

550
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 3: and you see that college graduates aren't getting jobs, you

551
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 3: become anxious. You say, oh, you know, this is I

552
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 3: have this huge expense. You know, if you're helping your

553
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 3: kid out with college that I'm going to be paying

554
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 3: and if they can't get a job, that'll be bad.

555
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 3: So I think you're right. It is a it's big

556
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 3: or than you know, just that it creates anxiety much

557
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 3: broader than just the people who can't get jobs. I

558
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 3: think there's a few things going on. One is that

559
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 3: we are coming through a period in which employers hired

560
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 3: a lot and they probably overstaffed, and so you know,

561
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 3: we got down to, like, you know, unemployment rates that

562
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 3: we hadn't seen for two generations. And I think that

563
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 3: some employers are still sort of digesting those workers. They're

564
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 3: worried about that. There is probably some AI effect, not

565
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:43,239
Speaker 3: so much that AI is doing people's jobs. Yet, you know,

566
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 3: do you have can I ask you, am I excited

567
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 3: about anxiety? I think? I mean I worry a little

568
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 3: about like stock market evaluations based on AI.

569
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: They're very there's definitely a When I saw a commercial

570
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 1: for the AI the AI mattress, I go, oh, man,

571
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: this is Pet's stock, and I'm like, this is not

572
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 1: going well at all. Like the AI mattress was like, guys,

573
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 1: it's a wrap. Like there's no way that this is real,

574
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: but anyway, go ahead.

575
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 3: Yeah. No, it does start to get worrying. But one

576
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 3: problem I'll just say about bubbles is that bubbles can

577
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 3: last a long time. You know, Like people were calling

578
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 3: like tech a bubble in ninety seven and ninety eight,

579
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 3: and it had a few years to go. So when

580
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 3: you know, when you say, oh, something looks like a

581
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 3: bubble to me, I I you know, I try not

582
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 3: to like even think necessarily whether something's in a bubble

583
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 3: because that makes people think it's about to collapse, but

584
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 3: it actually may have years to go, and we may

585
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 3: have years to run on this. Uh. And and also

586
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 3: just because something's a bubble doesn't mean it's not real.

587
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 3: You know that there was an Internet bubble, but guess

588
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 3: what you and I are here on the Internet right, like, yeah,

589
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 3: it it can become something very real. And there's a

590
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 3: bunch of companies that exist on the Internet that are

591
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 3: the world's most valuable companies. And so you know there's

592
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 3: a bubble, doesn't mean that you're not actually creating value

593
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 3: in technology over time. So to get to your real question,

594
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 3: like you're like, you know what. So I think that

595
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:25,719
Speaker 3: some employers are probably holding back on hiring young people

596
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 3: in part because they want to see, maybe I don't

597
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 3: need as many people, right, maybe I can hold back

598
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 3: see what AI can do what it can't. So there

599
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 3: may be a friction there, but I actually don't expect

600
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 3: that to last very long. Historically, I'm not one of these, Like,

601
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 3: I'm not an employment doomer from AI. And I have

602
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 3: I have friends who are, by the way, friends who

603
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 3: are like no, like you have no idea, We're all

604
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 3: going to be unemployed.

605
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 1: I go back and forth like I'm like, I won't

606
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 1: be so bad. I'm like it's the worst. So yeah,

607
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 1: i'magine Rocana actually on my podcast next week to talk

608
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 1: about this.

609
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 2: Yeah.

610
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:08,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I'm not a dumer. When it comes to employment. Typically,

611
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: what happens, and again this has sound like really like

612
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 3: overly optimistic, but typically what happens when we have a

613
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 3: new technology that displaces workers, we find new work for

614
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:26,320
Speaker 3: the people because the people then become an underutilized resource

615
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 3: and you can use them. That's so, and history bears

616
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 3: that out, by the way, including some recent economics studies

617
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 3: they just gave the Nobel Prize for this that showed that, like,

618
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 3: technological innovation actually doesn't lead to long term unemployment, which

619
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 3: is very different, by the way, from when you outsource

620
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 3: jobs to another country that actually does lead to a

621
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 3: permanent lower level of unemployment that doesn't get picked. So

622
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 3: technology tends to free up resources, and outsourcing jobs actually tends.

623
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 3: They're often conflated in people's minds like, oh, technology also

624
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 3: takes away people's jobs. It's different than outsourcing jobs. Technology

625
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,839
Speaker 3: doesn't tend to be to permanently lower employment. Maybe it'll

626
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 3: be different this time. You know it could be.

627
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 2: I mean, jennerf AI is different.

628
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:14,839
Speaker 1: I think that's why I think there was a real

629
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 1: clear thing when Sam Altman said we're going to have

630
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: to have a bailout for AI companies, and then immediately

631
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,879
Speaker 1: who's the head of AI for the White House?

632
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:26,359
Speaker 2: A billionaire I can't remember his name top my head now.

633
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,760
Speaker 1: He he said there'll be no bailouts for AI companies

634
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 1: like the same day, and he's very bullish on AI.

635
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 2: So I think it's I think it's interesting.

636
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,320
Speaker 1: I don't think we're at a place yet where everyone's

637
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 1: going to get replaced, But I do worry if there

638
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 1: is enough unemployment, what people's politics when you get to

639
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 1: that level switched dramatically, and it's going to elect Mundani's

640
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 1: across the country. If twenty percent of our youth cannot

641
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 1: get jobs, yeah, we need.

642
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 3: To, we need to. We need to worry about that.

643
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 3: If if that, if it gets to that level. The

644
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 3: other big bet, by the way, is it becomes a

645
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 3: problem for the businesses themselves because you can't only be

646
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 3: run by senior people, because those senior people get old,

647
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 3: they retire, they die, and if you're not training the

648
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 3: next level of senior people. And like, let's say you

649
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 3: need one hundred senior people to run your organization. You

650
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:19,319
Speaker 3: don't just need one hundred junior people because you don't

651
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:20,879
Speaker 3: know which of those hundred are going to be good.

652
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 3: You need a thousand junior people so that you can

653
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 3: winnow them out to get to the senior And if

654
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 3: you are not training them because all their younger the

655
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 3: junior jobs are being done with AI, you are going

656
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,840
Speaker 3: to run into a business problem in the future. I

657
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 3: don't know how that's exactly going to work out, but

658
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 3: it is. It is a business problem that businesses are

659
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 3: going to have to face.

660
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 1: What do you my last well, yeah, how one last

661
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 1: question for my last last question? How much do you

662
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 1: think of This could also be anxiety the way that

663
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 1: they I've noticed the way that the media covers the

664
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 1: economy and the economy are two very different things. And I

665
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 1: always really have been right. I have been waiting for recessions.

666
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 1: Sometimes month, when the Democrats in the White House, it's

667
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 1: going to be a recession a day, When the Republicans

668
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: the whit House, it's going to be a recession any day,

669
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 1: depending on what mediality you look at, how much do

670
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 1: you think maybe the slowing down of hiring, especially young people,

671
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 1: could be of Let's see where these tariffs go. Let's

672
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 1: see what the what the Orange man does. Let's see

673
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,879
Speaker 1: how things shake out before we sit there and start

674
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,839
Speaker 1: making these Because they're having profits, they're having growth. It's

675
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 1: not like our our companies are failing left and right.

676
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 1: But is it just that the economy is growing? The

677
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 1: GDP is growing too, So is it that?

678
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 2: Is it? Part of it? Could be?

679
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 1: Hey, I have anxiety over Trump's the way that Trump behaves,

680
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 1: and who knows if this is a possible like you know,

681
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 1: we could make a wrong turn.

682
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, And look, just a few months ago there were

683
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 3: like widespread recession predictions that the tariffs were going to

684
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 3: push us in during recession. Uh, and I do think

685
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:54,840
Speaker 3: that probably caused company. Remember, companies don't like change their mind,

686
00:37:55,200 --> 00:38:00,320
Speaker 3: like you know, every single day they make year ahead projections,

687
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:03,359
Speaker 3: they have plans, think it revised them. This time goes on.

688
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 3: But if you think about like where we were a

689
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 3: year ago, Donald Trump's coming into office, He's promised to

690
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 3: put a twenty percent terriff on everything, which we don't

691
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:16,359
Speaker 3: have a twenty percent terraff on everything. By the way,

692
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 3: we have a lower tariff. The average teriff rate is

693
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 3: probably around eighteen percent. It might be a little lower

694
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 3: right now. So companies were worried. A lot of economists

695
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 3: were saying that like it was going to destroy the economy.

696
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 3: When he announced the tariffs in April, people were like,

697
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 3: you know, people don't jump out of windows anymore because

698
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 3: you can't open them.

699
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 4: But like there were more or less like that's it,

700
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 4: it's over, you know, And it didn't happen, and so

701
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 4: I think we may see more hiring actually as companies.

702
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 3: The other the final piece of this I'll say is

703
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 3: I think the Fed's monetary policy has been you type

704
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,799
Speaker 3: for most of the year. That it became clear that

705
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 3: inflation was not going up, that tariffs aren't pushing up inflation.

706
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 3: There's a new paper out of the San Francisco Federal

707
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 3: Reserve that people are talking about a lot that shows

708
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:16,359
Speaker 3: that actually tariffs tend to push down inflation, not up.

709
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 2: And so I read that.

710
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 1: But it was also because they have job losses, they've

711
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:22,839
Speaker 1: lost some money, so there's less inflation that was there.

712
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,359
Speaker 3: Yeah. You all I can say is everybody should read

713
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 3: bright Bart Business Digest because I am going to spend

714
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 3: the next several days explaining exactly what I looked.

715
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 2: I looked for your take on it. I didn't see it,

716
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 2: and I was like, Okay, I'll get to it. Like

717
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 2: I'm sure he'll'll publish about it pretty soon.

718
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, follow me on ax.

719
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 2: You know, I have one last.

720
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: Question where we get to the promotion of John Karney,

721
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: which everyone should read John Karney.

722
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 2: But my last question.

723
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 1: So there was a paper out by Moody's and so

724
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 1: that twenty two states are already in a recession. I

725
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 1: looked at their hiring and their GDP. All of the

726
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:03,240
Speaker 1: states listed had GDP growth. Only states have had GDP

727
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 1: losses in the last two quarters, which was Arkansas, Mississippi,

728
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 1: neither of which are on that list, and they all

729
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 1: had they none of them had job losses. So how

730
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 1: are these states in a recession?

731
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 3: Yeah? So, I mean that's part of the thing is like, look,

732
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 3: what you define as a recession is, you know, is

733
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:27,879
Speaker 3: in a way very subjective. It's it's actually defined by

734
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 3: a committee up in Cambridge officially and so so, but

735
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 3: what so, but that's not a dasherbal level, So what

736
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 3: do they mean? Like it's their recession. It could just

737
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,800
Speaker 3: be something as simple as has the unemployment rate moved

738
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 3: up by fifty basis points that Clady as sam Is,

739
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 3: an economist, said that that is one of the best

740
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:55,359
Speaker 3: recession indicators. And although she has said more recently like

741
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 3: it's not a lock that you're in a recession if

742
00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 3: that happens, she actually uses it's like an alarm bell

743
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 3: that the government should start to think about what it needs.

744
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 3: The government, the fed uh should start and the fiscal

745
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 3: authorities should start to figure out what they might need

746
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:14,799
Speaker 3: to do to aid the economy. If you get a

747
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 3: half point increase within six months of like so you

748
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 3: have a high level or you have you know, one

749
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 3: level of unemployment and over the course of six months

750
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 3: you go up half a point, that's a like quite

751
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 3: steep increase. That con that that has historically been a

752
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 3: recession indicator. So maybe that's what they mean. What I

753
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 3: would say is it's a little weird to have. Like

754
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 3: it's like when people say a sector isn't a recession, right, Like, oh,

755
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,279
Speaker 3: I mean you can say I say it housing is

756
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 3: it a recession? Right? The problem is a recession, like

757
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 3: parts of the economy are always doing better and worse,

758
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:56,279
Speaker 3: and same with parts of the country. Parts of the

759
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 3: country tend to there tend to be some places that

760
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 3: are doing really well in some places that aren't. So

761
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 3: it's weird to pick out a place to be like,

762
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 3: you know, Housing recession or Oklahoma recession, right, because what

763
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 3: a recession really is is almost everything all at once

764
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 3: and almost everywhere all at once doing badly. Because that

765
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 3: means you can't move to another sector to get a

766
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 3: better job, and you can't move to a better different

767
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 3: part of the country to get a better job. So

768
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 3: I don't like the word recession when you use that.

769
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 3: That said, I like I said, I think some parts

770
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 3: of the economy, housing in particular, have been pretty weak

771
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 3: because interest rates have been too high, and so I

772
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if that starts to show up in

773
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 3: various places. I mean, although we just got one of

774
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 3: the first economic reports in quite a while because the

775
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 3: government reopened, and it actually showed that construction was better

776
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:57,839
Speaker 3: than expected. It was expected to decline like a tenth

777
00:42:57,880 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 3: of a basis point and went up two tenths of

778
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 3: a business point. I know, it's like, it doesn't seem

779
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 3: like a lot but but like that's a big deal.

780
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 3: A lot of us were expecting, including me, that like

781
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 3: we're gonna have to start to see layoffs in the

782
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 3: construction sector, which has been doing pretty well because construction

783
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 3: spetting was probably gonna sink. But this is this is

784
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 3: an old number. It's an August number, but it or

785
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:28,320
Speaker 3: September number, I guess. But it shows that construction spetting

786
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:32,759
Speaker 3: is going up, which is you know, and that's pretty impressive.

787
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 3: So maybe maybe I was too fearful.

788
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:38,560
Speaker 1: Well, John, where can we go to read all your

789
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:40,919
Speaker 1: brilliant insights? And you are brilliant. I do live reading

790
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 1: your stuff, and it's easy for people who are not economists,

791
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 1: for college robouts like myself to understand.

792
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 2: So where people read you all the time?

793
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 3: I'm glad you say that. I try to, you know,

794
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 3: I definitely don't write for economists. I try to write

795
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 3: for everybody. And so Break our business digest comes out

796
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,920
Speaker 3: every day. It's free subscribe to. It comes to your mailbox.

797
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:03,439
Speaker 3: You don't even have to like go to the web.

798
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 3: You can just you know, read on your phone. Breitbart

799
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 3: dot com, Slash Economy, my x speed at carneycar and

800
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 3: e Y you know has a lot of it. We

801
00:44:17,160 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 3: talked about that San Francisco Fed paper. I'm going to

802
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 3: explain why the negative interpretation of it, like, oh no,

803
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 3: it means like the economy has to do badly once

804
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 3: you put tariffs in for a press to go down

805
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 3: is wrong. One of my favorite things to do actually

806
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 3: is like a lot of journalists, I'm sorry to say,

807
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:40,280
Speaker 3: seem not to read the economic papers they talk about.

808
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:42,400
Speaker 3: You know, they just go on X so they're like,

809
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 3: this says we have to have a recession or whatever.

810
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 1: That is true a journalists in any sector, they do

811
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 1: not actually read the papers that they talk about.

812
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 2: That is very very very common, yes, or they're.

813
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 3: Afraid to admit they don't understand them. You know, when

814
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 3: I don't understand something, I start making calls to get

815
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:00,400
Speaker 3: somebody to explain it to me. It's one of my rules.

816
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: I call you, John, I don't understand anything that's going on.

817
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 3: And I have a rule that if I don't understand something,

818
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:10,520
Speaker 3: I don't write about it until I do, right, Like

819
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 3: that's the that's and I'm not embarrassed to say like

820
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 3: I don't get that one yet. And uh, that's actually

821
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:20,920
Speaker 3: proven a very safe thing for me. Because it saves

822
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 3: you from a lot of mistakes. But anyway, you know,

823
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:26,720
Speaker 3: write our business digests. Everybody should subscribe to it. It

824
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:31,719
Speaker 3: is uh, it's fair because it's where I explain not

825
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 3: just like what happened, but why and how and what

826
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:37,240
Speaker 3: it probably means for the future.

827
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 1: All Right, John Carney, thank you for coming on my podcast.

828
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 1: I always appreciate you.

829
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's great to see you. Ryn.

830
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowsky.

831
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 2: We'll be right back now.

832
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:53,360
Speaker 1: It's time to Ask Me Anything segment of this podcast.

833
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:55,240
Speaker 1: If you want to part of the ask Me Anything segment,

834
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 1: email me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com.

835
00:45:58,160 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 2: That's Ryan at.

836
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 1: Number Numbers, Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. I love getting these letters.

837
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 1: I love getting these emails. I like to know that

838
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 1: there's someone listening and I'm not just getting a chart

839
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 1: of what my numbers like day to day. This email

840
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 1: comes from Joey. He says, Hi, my name is Joseph Hegler.

841
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 1: I just finished listening to one of your podcasts with

842
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:14,799
Speaker 1: Niki Hilly's son.

843
00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 2: It was good.

844
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 1: I did think it was interesting how so many younger

845
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 1: generations look at the boomers and the life they were

846
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 1: able to have, and resent them for it, I know,

847
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 1: you know, and that's why I tried to tell nail

848
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:29,240
Speaker 1: In when I was having the conversation. Was things easier

849
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 1: for baby boomers? Yes, in some respects, but it wasn't

850
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 1: easier in many others. They grew up in a very

851
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 1: turbulent time and there I think a lot of things

852
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,799
Speaker 1: that happened that the silent generation voted for and did

853
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 1: was blamed on Baby boomers. And there was also they

854
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 1: some of them were drafted, some of them had a

855
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 1: real hardships. They grew up in a much more dangerous

856
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:54,240
Speaker 1: society than we do now. It wasn't all sunshine and roses.

857
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: It wasn't like they all were able to buy, you know,

858
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:58,799
Speaker 1: a home that's now worth ten million dollars for you know,

859
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:02,279
Speaker 1: five bucks. That didn't really happen. There are some things

860
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:04,400
Speaker 1: that definitely Boomers could be blamed for as a generation,

861
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:07,400
Speaker 1: but it's not. I mean, younger people really have a

862
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 1: lot of pent up resentment towards Baby boomers for sure. Okay,

863
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 1: My question is this, why does nobody talk of the

864
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:17,920
Speaker 1: national debt being thirty trillion leading cause for inflation? Exactly

865
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 1: what I said about this podcast, which is basically at

866
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:20,240
Speaker 1: taxing everybody.

867
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 2: But I completely agree with you. That's why I did

868
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 2: this podcast episode. Joseph.

869
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 1: Why we need multiple people in a home to be working,

870
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,319
Speaker 1: which means they're not even raising their own kids, so

871
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 1: they put the kid in childcare services, which is very expensive.

872
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 1: Why the cost of living does not match the live wage. Joseph,

873
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 1: You're one hundred percent right, and it's we're not talking

874
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 1: about it because it's uncomfortable. It is uncomfortable to sit

875
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:42,800
Speaker 1: there and say. The only real way we are going

876
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:45,840
Speaker 1: to sit there and get to a balanced budget and

877
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 1: a budget surpplus is either we have to grow the

878
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 1: economy to unimaginable numbers, which maybe with AI that's what

879
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 1: they're saying, Ay I is going to do. I don't know.

880
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 1: I really don't know. We're gonna have a conversation in

881
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:57,880
Speaker 1: AI next week and I'm looking forward to that. It

882
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 1: could also be or we have to increase taxes, which

883
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:02,759
Speaker 1: not just on the wealthy, it's going to be a

884
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 1: tax increase very much across the board, which nobody wants.

885
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 1: It's very unpopular. Or we're gonna have to touch our

886
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:13,040
Speaker 1: entitlements and our military spending. It's gonna have to be everything,

887
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:16,400
Speaker 1: and the cost of servicing the debt is going to

888
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 1: be the largest part of our budget pretty soon. I mean,

889
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:23,799
Speaker 1: you know, they've talked about printing a trillion dollar coin

890
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 1: and just paying off the debt or whatever. I don't

891
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 1: know if that's I don't know if that's possible. I

892
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 1: don't know what else they're going to sit there and do.

893
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,279
Speaker 1: But they have to get into realistic terms because we're

894
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:35,439
Speaker 1: paying for it. We are paying for the debt every day.

895
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:37,239
Speaker 1: One hundred percent agree with you. They're not talking about

896
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 1: it because one, it's not sexy for the media. It's

897
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 1: much more sexy to talk about other things, like you know, Epstein.

898
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 1: But it's very, very, very important, and it's very uncomfortable,

899
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:48,320
Speaker 1: which is why people don't want to do it. Okay,

900
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 1: next and last question, this comes from Christopher. Christopher writes, Hey,

901
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 1: big fan of your podcast, listen to every episode. Thank you, Christopher.

902
00:48:56,600 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 1: I I beyond appreciate you. I have no idea that's

903
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 1: what you do. I have two serious questions, one serious

904
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 1: and one not so much. First, I've been speculated that

905
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 1: Trump and Beset have been working deliberately to derail the

906
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:11,160
Speaker 1: economy this year to force the bet to reduce rates

907
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:13,440
Speaker 1: and make it easier to require refinancing of trillions of

908
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 1: dollars a debt that're rolling over. Do you buy this

909
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 1: argument or have any evidence for or against it? Do

910
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:20,400
Speaker 1: I have any evidence? No, I don't have an envidence

911
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:22,799
Speaker 1: for that they're for or against it. I don't think

912
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 1: that that's the case.

913
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:23,879
Speaker 2: Though.

914
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 1: My general suspicion is that Trump loves the headlines to

915
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:30,759
Speaker 1: sit there and say everything's going great. I do think

916
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:33,320
Speaker 1: that he likes tariffs. I just think that he fundamentally

917
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 1: thinks tariffs work for his end, and I don't think

918
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:39,839
Speaker 1: I don't believe the tariff's response for all our costs

919
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 1: of increase. As I've said in this whole podcast episode,

920
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:44,799
Speaker 1: I think and I think the set is a very

921
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 1: smart man. I don't think he wants to see the

922
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:50,800
Speaker 1: economy fail. I think some things are bigger than the president,

923
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 1: and I think that that's part of the part of

924
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:56,719
Speaker 1: the problem. And I think compared to Trump term one,

925
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, he's been much more toned down and

926
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 1: much more even keel, where it's not like crazy and

927
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 1: you don't know what's going to happen day to day.

928
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 1: So I don't buy that argument, Chris.

929
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 2: So, I don't know.

930
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 1: I heard it, but I don't buy it. Second, what's

931
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 1: the story with a theme music? It sounds like video

932
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:17,320
Speaker 1: killed the Radio Star? Is that correct? That is exactly correct, Chris.

933
00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 1: I am a big fan of new wave. I'm a

934
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:21,840
Speaker 1: big fan of eighties music. I used to go to

935
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 1: eighties clubs in New York City back when they were

936
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 1: still open. Love It did, Pyramid Club and I went,

937
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 1: I mean, I did all those clubs.

938
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 2: I love, love, love eighties music.

939
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 1: I picked that song as my theme song because you know,

940
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 1: video did kill the Radio Star and podcasting and new

941
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:43,840
Speaker 1: media is killing traditional media. So I thought it was

942
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 1: appropriate and very meta, and I'm sure that nobody got

943
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 1: it whatsoever. A different listener asked me if it was

944
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 1: the Golden Girls theme song, and I was like, no,

945
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 1: what are you talking about? So, yeah, that's why I

946
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:57,759
Speaker 1: picked it. I love eighties music, I love new wave,

947
00:50:57,880 --> 00:50:59,879
Speaker 1: and I love and I thought it was the very

948
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 1: you know, highbrow thought process of like, oh this is

949
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,319
Speaker 1: what this is going to mean. I'm sure no one

950
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 1: got it besides me, But what can I tell you?

951
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 1: I think too much sometimes, Chris, thank you for listening

952
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 1: this podcast, and thank you all for listening to this

953
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 1: podcast episode. If you like this podcast, please like and

954
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 1: subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast YouTube, where you

955
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 1: can get these videos now. I'm so appreciated with my

956
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,839
Speaker 1: YouTube channel growth. It's been really, really impressive and I'm

957
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:27,120
Speaker 1: very excited to continue to see it grow and wherever

958
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, I will talk to you guys

959
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 1: on Thursday,