1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: So everything we eat requires fertilizer to grow. Do you 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: know what the three main ingredients of fertilizer are. Oh, 3 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: let's see nitrates, nitrates, calcium. That's what most people just say. 4 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: The S word from Bloomberg News and iHeartRadio. It's the 5 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: big take. I'm West Kasova today. How fertilizer became a 6 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: political pawn. We talk a lot on this show about 7 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: how the world being so closely connected means a shock 8 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,840 Speaker 1: in one part of the globe is often felt everywhere else, 9 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 1: and sometimes in unexpected ways. Today another example of that, 10 00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused prices of fertilizer to spike 11 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: in some countries. That means it's become harder to get 12 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 1: enough to grow critical crops like corn, and even in 13 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 1: places like the US where crops are plentiful, higher fertilizer 14 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: costs will show up in higher food prices at the supermarket. 15 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:23,319 Speaker 1: Why did this happen? My colleague Elizabeth Elkin covers this industry, 16 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: and she's here to explain how fertilizer, just like oil, 17 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: gas and semiconductors, has become wrapped up in the geopolitical 18 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 1: rivalries between East and West Elizabeth. When we think about 19 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 1: the war in Ukraine, and it's now been a year, 20 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 1: and so I think we've all been thinking about it 21 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: a lot. Fertilizer is not one of the things that 22 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 1: comes to the top of most people's minds, and yet 23 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: this is a really big problem that began shortly after 24 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: Russia invade the Ukraine. What happened. Yeah, absolutely, Fertilizer is 25 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: obviously not one of the first things that you think 26 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: about when you think about this war, but it is 27 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: one of the most important things for food security. After 28 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: Russia invaded Ukraine, we saw prices for fertilizer just go 29 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 1: nuts because Russia is one of the top suppliers of 30 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 1: these really important nutrients to the entire world. When we 31 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 1: weren't sure that exports were going to happen, we said, well, 32 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: what do we do. You know, like a fifth of 33 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 1: the world's fertilizer is in this country that now everybody 34 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: is sanctioning, and we're just totally not sure that anything's 35 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 1: going to make it out. So where do we make 36 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: up for those nutrients and how do we continue to 37 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: feed people? If fertilizer prices are super expensive, then that 38 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: means that it is way more expensive. Even if you 39 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 1: can get fertilizer to grow crops, and so then that 40 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 1: can help push up the price of crops, and so 41 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: all of that plays into your food supply, right. So 42 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: like if it's super expensive to make crops in the US, 43 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: we probably weren't going to see shortages of food, but 44 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,839 Speaker 1: we have seen like astronomical food inflation, and a big 45 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 1: part of that is fertilizer. And one of the things 46 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: we really did see that I think a lot of 47 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 1: people notice we're grain prices, wheat in particular, rising because 48 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: exports from Ukraine and other places had been kind of 49 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: curtailed or cut off. But the fertilizer problem is something 50 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 1: that goes into the years ahead. Yeah, absolutely, And so 51 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 1: that's one of the things that was really tough at 52 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: the start of this is it's hard to tell how 53 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 1: much the price and supply of fertilizer is going to 54 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: impact food prices because you apply fertilizer for a crop 55 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: that you won't eat for a long time. If you're 56 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: trying to grow wheat and you don't put down enough fertilizer, 57 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: what happens is you get less wheat. When you're going 58 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: to take that wheat out of the ground and so 59 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: then the levels of nutrients in the soil go down, 60 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: and they can go down for more time than us 61 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 1: to this season, right, and so then you just end 62 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: up with this whole like sort of supply chain issue 63 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: for you know, it can be I mean a long time. 64 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 1: So then the next year's yield is lower, and then 65 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: you get into this kind of downward spiral. Yeah, and 66 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 1: then you have to maybe apply more nutrients than you 67 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: ever would have later. It just depends really on where 68 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: you are, the nutrient content of the soil. It's very 69 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: specific two different crops. It just it's really hard to 70 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 1: say if I don't apply this fertilizer that I need, 71 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 1: what's going to happen next year and the next year 72 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:36,799 Speaker 1: and the next year. It varies depending on who's planting. 73 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: And of course, like every crop now, this is science, 74 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: So your crop is calculated with a certain amount of fertilizer, 75 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: a certain type of fertilizer. And it's not like you 76 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: can just oh, substitute something else, No, definitely not. And 77 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 1: corn makes corn syrup which goes into like soda and 78 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,479 Speaker 1: everything that we eat, and there's a lot of corn 79 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 1: syrup in the food that we consume. So corn is 80 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: super super important and you can't skip applying a certain 81 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: type of fertilizer to corn. It's it's called nitrogen. Every 82 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:10,600 Speaker 1: year you have to apply nitrogen or yield drops dramatically. 83 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: Rebecca chass On, our producer in New York, and Katherine Fink, 84 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: our producer in Washington, went out to ask people if 85 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 1: they had any idea what's in the fertilizer used to 86 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: grow the food they eat? Um? Nitrogen? Um, okay, I 87 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 1: just got nitrogen. Sounds like something not healthy. Oh, I 88 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: have no idea, No, no idea. Too phosphate, it's one 89 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: of them. Um my trite tongue. I know this one. 90 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 1: I know this all. I used to be a geology manager, Elizabeth. 91 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 1: As you heard there, people me included don't really have 92 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: an idea of what's in fertilizer. You mentioned nitrogen. One 93 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 1: guy in the clip got that right, But we tend 94 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 1: to think about it as something in a bag you 95 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 1: pour over the dirt and who knows what's in it. So, 96 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: what are the main components of commercial fertilizer. Yeah, so 97 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:12,159 Speaker 1: there's three main nutrients that people put down on the ground, 98 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: and you know there's other stuff that goes on too, 99 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 1: but these are the big three. It's nitrogen, phosphate, and potash. 100 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 1: Potash and phosphate are both mined. Nitrogen is created through 101 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 1: a process called the Haberbosh process. It's synthetic nitrogen fixation, 102 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 1: which just means that you're taking nitrogen from the air 103 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 1: and converting it into a form that a plant can use. 104 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 1: Nitrogen is generally thought of as the most important because 105 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: there are plants like corn that you have to apply 106 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 1: it every year. It's the one that farmers are not 107 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:48,359 Speaker 1: going to skip. If they can skip anything, they're going 108 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 1: to start with potash and then they're going to go 109 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: to phosphate. And then if you see them skipping nitrogen, 110 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: that's when you know that things are really bad. And 111 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 1: so phosphate and potash as you are, you actually have 112 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 1: to get it out of the ground, similar to the 113 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 1: way you would even mind coal. Can you actually describe 114 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 1: what is it like to mine potash? So I visited 115 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: a mine up in Canada late last year. It's very 116 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: very cold in Saskatchewan. Inside the mine it's actually really hot. 117 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: So you know, I'm because it's so deep, so deep underground, right, 118 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 1: So I'm wearing like basically a parka with three other 119 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 1: layers underneath, because if you've ever been to Saskatchewan, Canada 120 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: in early December or late November, it is cold, I 121 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: mean cold. And then you get down in the mine 122 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: and you're in all your protective equipment, you know, so 123 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: that rocks don't fall on you, nothing hurts you. You know, 124 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 1: you have to sort of like gear up, and I 125 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: am like sweating under all of my layers that I'm 126 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: wearing because I'm in Saskatchewan, Canada. So it's like in 127 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 1: the eighties degrees fahrenheit down in the mines. Does it 128 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 1: look like down So it's interesting. I thought there would 129 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 1: be more like lights and things, So it's actually really 130 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: dark and the only lights come from like your car 131 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 1: and your headlamp because your car. They drive around little 132 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 1: cars down there. Because it's so huge, I mean, it's 133 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 1: like miles and miles underground, and so if you're just 134 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 1: walking that would take a lot of time and also 135 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: be not so safe to just have people like wandering 136 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 1: around down there. Right, So they have you go down 137 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 1: this like huge elevator, which everything that's down in the 138 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 1: mine had to come down that elevator and be built underground, 139 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 1: which is super fascinating. So all of the cars, all 140 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 1: of the equipment, everything came down this elevator and then 141 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 1: you're down there and you're surrounded by this super old rock. 142 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: There's like a lot of pinks in it. So they're 143 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: pulling up tons of this stuff up. Yeah. Yeah. So 144 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 1: they've got these huge, like boring machines that cut into 145 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 1: the wall of the rock. Makes all this noise. You 146 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: wear these head phones and around you like the air 147 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: tastes like salt because there's a high salt content of 148 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 1: the rock, and so it's like it's almost like being 149 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,959 Speaker 1: in the ocean. You know, it's like a weird sort 150 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: of I mean, I grew up on the beach and 151 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 1: I was like, oh, this is kind of like being 152 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: back home on the beach. And then it moves on 153 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: these conveyor belts and then they take it up above 154 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: ground and then they process it and so you can 155 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 1: go into like their facilities where they're storing it, and 156 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: it's like these huge i mean almost like big mountains 157 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: of snow, except it's potash. The thing about potash is 158 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:39,560 Speaker 1: the top three countries that you mine potash out of 159 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 1: our Canada and then it's Russia and Belarus. The US 160 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 1: and Allies had already imposed sanctions on Belarus for other 161 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 1: things before the war, and so that supply was already constrained. 162 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 1: And then you get the issues out of Russia, right, 163 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:01,959 Speaker 1: and then suddenly countries that usually wouldn't go to Canada 164 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:05,839 Speaker 1: for this stuff like knocking on Canada's door saying, please 165 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,679 Speaker 1: please please think of us when you are mining your potash, 166 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 1: like we really really really need to secure potash. And 167 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:17,080 Speaker 1: there was another knock on effect, which is from China, 168 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: but it was kind of the opposite of what was 169 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: happening with Russia. Is that right? Yeah? Absolutely, So China 170 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: has decided to keep a lot of product in country, 171 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: and they're a big producers, and they're a big producer. 172 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: A lot of product comes out of China, and usually 173 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 1: they're a pretty big exporter, and they have mostly stopped 174 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: exporting a lot of fertilizer. And so at the same 175 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: time as you had question mark will stuff come out 176 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: of Russia and we have seen very little products come 177 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 1: out of Belarus since sanctions, you also have China saying 178 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 1: we want to make sure that we have supply in country. 179 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 1: And the thing about China is it's really really hard 180 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 1: to tell what their fertilizer stocks look like. We just 181 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: don't have really an eye on the ground on that. 182 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: Even major companies kind of don't know what supplies in 183 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 1: China look like, and so it's really hard to tell 184 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 1: at what point they're going to say, Okay, enough, we 185 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: can just start exporting again. We don't think that's happening 186 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: anytime soon. Elizabeth, Please stay with me. We'll keep talking 187 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: after the break. Elizabeth. Before the break, you were talking 188 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:38,680 Speaker 1: about fears about fertilizer supplies dwindling from Russia and China 189 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: for different reasons, which brings us to another big fertilizer producer, 190 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: the United States, And a lot of what the US 191 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 1: producers isn't intended for export, is just used to meet 192 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: the huge demands of American agriculture. In the US, we 193 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: have the number one producer of nitrogen fertilizer in the world, 194 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: and they have an able to produce nitrogen fertilizer at 195 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 1: a much lower cost compared to a lot of the world, 196 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,640 Speaker 1: especially because natural gas is the number one input for 197 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 1: nitrogen fertilizer. Most nitrogen fertilizer in the world. In Europe, 198 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 1: we had like a fuel crisis, right. I mean we 199 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 1: had because of the war, we had prices for natural 200 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 1: gas exploding in Europe, and so a lot of European 201 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 1: nitrogen fertilizer producers closed down, and so that has also 202 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: caused supply squeeze. Right. So then you have CF Industries, 203 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 1: which is the world's biggest producer of nitrogen fertilizer. They're 204 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 1: in the US and suddenly they can make nitrogen much 205 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 1: cheaper than almost anywhere else. We've had a pretty good 206 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,079 Speaker 1: go of nitrogen in the US, right, And CF has 207 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: actually started to export more than they did before the war, 208 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 1: just because they can get good bang for their buck 209 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 1: if they can get their product abroad, which has been 210 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 1: an interesting sort of like difference in the US market 211 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 1: then we saw before the war. So the US hasn't 212 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: suffered as much as some other countries simply because there's 213 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 1: pretty good supply. Yeah. I mean, we're right next to 214 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: Canada with all of its potash. We've got CF in 215 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 1: the US, and we've also got Mosaic, which is another 216 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 1: huge producer in the US, and they do phosphate and potash, 217 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: and so we've had a pretty good supply of fertilizer. 218 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: I mean, prices have still been high because it's a 219 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: global market, so of course prices are high everywhere, but 220 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 1: the US hasn't really had a shortage problem. Elizabeth, we 221 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 1: talked about how in countries that produce fertilizer, the US, Canada, 222 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 1: they've been somewhat isolated from these shocks. But that's not 223 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: true in a lot of the biggest consuming nations of fertilizers, 224 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 1: especially developing nations that really really need this just for 225 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 1: basic necessities. Yeah, so it's sort of a classic case 226 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 1: of halves and have knots here. So you have places 227 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: like the US where we are largely doing okay because 228 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 1: we you know, we have supply and we already are 229 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: like a pretty wealthy country, right, and then you've got 230 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:10,560 Speaker 1: places like Africa where they just can't get the product. 231 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: I mean, even those sanctions don't directly impact Russian fertilizer. 232 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 1: They've been very clear about that, right, sanctions don't extend 233 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 1: to fertilizers. So Russia is free to export fertiles. Yes, 234 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: Russia's free to export fertilizer in the same way that 235 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: it should be free to export grains. We count that 236 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: as a necessity for food, and so they should be 237 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 1: free to export this fertilizer, but it has totally gummed 238 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: up the supply chain. So you've got ships unsure if 239 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 1: they want to touch the fertilizer because they're afraid of 240 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 1: somehow falling under sanctions. And also product is moving in 241 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 1: a different way than it used to, and so some 242 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: of those supply chains make it really really difficult. Well, 243 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 1: one example you write about is Malawi. Yeah, tell us 244 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 1: about their experience right now. Malawi is already one of 245 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 1: the poorest places in the world. I mean, they really struggle. 246 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 1: And then now on top of that, you have i 247 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: mean it's been months trying to get them the supply 248 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 1: of fertilizer that they need. That is pushing back the 249 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: ability to grow crops because you can't just apply fertilizer 250 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 1: at any point in the year when they need the fertilizer. 251 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: They need the fertilizer. And that's sort of what Balawi 252 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 1: is facing right now, is that long term Okay, if 253 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 1: we can't get our fertilizer, how do we feed these people? 254 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 1: But it's not just there. You also write that countries 255 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 1: in other regions of the world are suffering in the 256 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: same way. Yeah, exactly, it's not just African nations. For example, 257 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: go to the other side of the Earth, and then 258 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 1: you've got Peru, which is actually turning to guano, which 259 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 1: has been used as a fertilizer in the past. It 260 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 1: is bird poop. It has been proven to be a 261 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: really good source of nutrients for crops. If they can't 262 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 1: get the product that they need, guano is a good 263 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 1: alternative for them. Well, I mean, there's a lot of birds, 264 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 1: so you can see how they produced a lot of 265 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 1: guano that I suppose could be collective, but they don't 266 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: do it in all one place, So how do they 267 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: actually collect it? Yeah, so I think that the birds 268 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 1: like certain areas, and so you just I mean, go 269 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 1: to where the birds are and you collect the guano 270 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 1: and then it's used as a fertilizer. And it's not 271 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: just bird guano. They can use bat guano too, So 272 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 1: there are a lot of different types of guano that 273 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 1: can be used. That doesn't seem like it's going to 274 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: be a viable solution, No, especially not to feed like 275 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: the massive amount of people on this earth. We'll be 276 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 1: right back, Elizabeth. Given all the concerns that we're talking 277 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: about that there might not be enough fertilizer to meet demand. 278 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 1: Are there other fertilizers, other things that can be used 279 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 1: to make up for the shortfall. You know a lot 280 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: of people talk about manure. It's more difficult to collect 281 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: large quantities of it than it is to just get 282 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,919 Speaker 1: the synthetic nutrients right, And so you have that issue. 283 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:08,680 Speaker 1: But then you also have the issue of the reason 284 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 1: why we originally created the haber Bosch process that makes 285 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: nitrogen fertilizers because people were worried about an impending food crisis. 286 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:24,360 Speaker 1: So if you look back historically, there were people talking 287 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 1: a lot about how are we going to feed people? 288 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:32,159 Speaker 1: Population keeps growing, and the manure and guano and all 289 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:36,479 Speaker 1: of these other things don't create enough nutrients. There's just 290 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 1: not enough of it. The nutrient content is also not 291 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 1: high enough to continue to feed the growing population of 292 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,919 Speaker 1: the Earth. And so when they created the way to 293 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 1: make nitrogen fertilizer, that was considered the most incredible invention 294 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 1: because it allowed population to continue growing. You can't really 295 00:17:56,119 --> 00:18:00,119 Speaker 1: just say, okay, well we can't get fertilizer, let's get 296 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 1: cowmanure because it just doesn't work the same way. And 297 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 1: you know, we talk about composting and stuff like that. 298 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 1: It's a great way to reduce landfill, you know, but 299 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 1: it's not a replacement for synthetic fertilizer. Composting is great 300 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 1: for your kitchen, etc. Like for your little farm or 301 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:21,719 Speaker 1: your little your little garden, but it doesn't work for 302 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:26,959 Speaker 1: like a massive grains farm that's trying to produce tons 303 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:31,919 Speaker 1: and tons of corn to feed the world. So what 304 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 1: is the solution. How eventually do we correct this problem 305 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 1: and kind of turn the faucet back on of getting 306 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 1: fertilizer where it needs to go. A lot of countries 307 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 1: are trying to increase their in country ability to make 308 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 1: new fertilizer and make more fertilizer. So you've got grant 309 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 1: money being thrown at it. You've got countries that are 310 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 1: trying to make new alliances with other countries, and you've 311 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,439 Speaker 1: got countries that are trying to make different kinds of connections. 312 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 1: So you have Brazil went to Canada and asked Canada, like, 313 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: can you provide us with more potash? And so you 314 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 1: get countries that are trying to like build different connections 315 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:15,679 Speaker 1: in addition to trying to increase the amount of nutrients 316 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 1: that they can make in country. There are also a 317 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:24,640 Speaker 1: lot of people that are working on alternatives to synthetic fertilizer. 318 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 1: I mean, there's a lot of people who are working 319 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 1: on like microbes, using like other kinds of technology to 320 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,360 Speaker 1: make fertilizer in a different way than it's made now. 321 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 1: And the hope for that is that it can be 322 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 1: a little bit more environmentally friendly too, because the way 323 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 1: that we make fertilizer right now is not environmentally friendly, 324 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: and there's also a lot that gets run off into 325 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: waterways and notions, and you know, giant like algae blooms 326 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 1: and things like fertilizer contributes to a lot of environmental problems, 327 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 1: and so the hope also is that you can find 328 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 1: something that might be little less of an environmental hazard. 329 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 1: So when you look down the road, is someone who 330 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: writes about fertilizer all the time, what do you see? 331 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 1: It's gonna be a while before we have anything that 332 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:18,880 Speaker 1: really really is a major replacement for a lot of product. 333 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: I don't think that anyone who is a professional, like 334 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: in the fertilizer industry thinks that anything will ever totally 335 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 1: overtake synthetic fertilizer. But a lot of people hope that 336 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 1: there will be something that can help take some amount 337 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 1: of that off. And so not only does that help 338 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: contribute to keeping prices low because we won't be so 339 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,880 Speaker 1: dependent on all of these international markets and things, but 340 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 1: also maybe it'll help solve some of the environmental problems 341 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 1: that fertilizer causes. Elizabeth Alkin, thanks for coming on the show, 342 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:58,920 Speaker 1: Thanks for having me, Thanks for listening to us here 343 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 1: at The Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg 344 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,920 Speaker 1: and iHeartRadio. For more shows from my Heart Radio, visit 345 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you listen, and 346 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,399 Speaker 1: we'd love to hear from you. Email us questions or 347 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 1: comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. The supervising 348 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,959 Speaker 1: producer of The Big Take is Vicky Bergolina. Our senior 349 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 1: producer is Katherine Fink. Our producers are Moe Barrow and 350 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 1: Michael Flero, with additional production support from Rebecca Chasson. Hilde 351 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:32,679 Speaker 1: Garcia is our engineer. Our original music was composed by 352 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 1: Leo Sidrin. I'm West Kasova. We'll be back on Monday 353 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,679 Speaker 1: with another Big Take. Have a great weekend.