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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sportsman.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go fifteen puny twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, forty forty five, fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the kicks Block Look College Football World Stunner.

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Speaker 4: Oh my goodness it stumble.

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Speaker 5: The football, the lateral to the counter of the.

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Speaker 2: Jide, get you the lad.

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Speaker 4: Table off the.

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Speaker 2: Fail to night. It's not the sage of the game,

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Speaker 2: it's the sage of the fight.

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Speaker 4: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Action at

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Speaker 4: Work Podcast.

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Speaker 2: This is the week fifteen college football betting preview.

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Speaker 4: I'm stuck in with me.

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Speaker 2: As always as Colin Wilson. Been a lot of cancelations,

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Speaker 2: a lot of chaos.

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Speaker 1: College football is getting weird, a.

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Speaker 2: Lot of uncertainty throughout the season. But we made it

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Speaker 2: to the last full Saturday slate. We need to make

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Speaker 2: the best of it. You're ready to get to work here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: I mean when incarnate word in Arkansas State gets canceled,

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Speaker 6: we're just gonna have to find something else to gamble

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Speaker 6: on this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Yes, the no Arkansas State for me. We have a

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Speaker 2: lot to get to today, but let's start with the

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Speaker 2: college football playoff update. I'll also ask you about some

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Speaker 2: look aheadlines if you have any interest there and in

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Speaker 2: some of the conference titles that are already set for

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Speaker 2: next weekend. We'll do that once we get to the

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Speaker 2: look ahead and look away segment. But first, in regards

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Speaker 2: to the college football Playoff, really devastating week for Cincinnati.

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Speaker 2: They don't get an additional game against Tulsa because of

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Speaker 2: COVID issues on their end, and the Big Ten Khaki's

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Speaker 2: last stand Michigan cancels their game against Ohio State, but

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Speaker 2: the Big Ten changes the rules they put Ohio State

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Speaker 2: in the Big Ten Championship. Our next data point on

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Speaker 2: what the Ohio State secondary looks like is going to

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Speaker 2: be against Northwestern. So it's what that means is Ohio

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Speaker 2: State is getting into the College fotball playoff, and there

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Speaker 2: might be some reasons to bet against them, but that's

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Speaker 2: a conversation for another day. So you assume that as

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Speaker 2: of right now, it's gonna be if Bama wins out,

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Speaker 2: Bama's in. If Bama loses to Florida, BEMA might still

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Speaker 2: be in. But let's say Bama wins out, Bama's in,

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Speaker 2: State wins, State's in, Clemson wins the ACC title. Clemson

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Speaker 2: is in, and then you know, if Florida beats Alabama,

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Speaker 2: Florida's in, and maybe Alabama's in, and then that's the

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Speaker 2: end of the discussion. If Florida doesn't beat Alabama, Florida's out,

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Speaker 2: and then the conversation comes down to Notre Dame with

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Speaker 2: their one loss being Clemson, Texas.

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Speaker 4: A and M.

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Speaker 2: What are your updated thoughts? Maybe the chants what's up

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Speaker 2: Triple C Nation, We'll get to you. What are your

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Speaker 2: updated thoughts on what this looks like?

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Speaker 6: And only a world of you and I are creating

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Speaker 6: a college football playoff? Could we get Coastal Carolina in there?

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Speaker 6: Which I mean look at their wins you know, I

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Speaker 6: mean BYU Louisiana app State, So no, I mean, as

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Speaker 6: far as the rankings came the other night, the biggest

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Speaker 6: surprise to me is just how sometimes in these college

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Speaker 6: football playoff rankings you go throughout the years, whoever is

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Speaker 6: projected to be in the Big Twelve title game just

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Speaker 6: rocket ships up the rankings.

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Speaker 4: It happens every year. Every time.

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Speaker 6: You know, we know who the two teams are going

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Speaker 6: to be in the Big twelve Championship no matter if

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Speaker 6: they have two losses or not. They rocket ship and

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Speaker 6: hover up around seven or eight. And what you've seen

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Speaker 6: out of Iowa State is just this massive jump the

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Speaker 6: last two weeks, and it creates some sort of scenario.

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Speaker 6: Say Clemson beats Notre Dame by forty, say you know,

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Speaker 6: Ohio State's in, or maybe Ohio State isn't in. I mean,

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Speaker 6: that's the whole lynchpin in all this. You want Texas

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Speaker 6: A and M in, you want Iowa State in, then

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Speaker 6: you're gonna have to have Ohio State lose Northwestern, which

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Speaker 6: is highly unlikely. I think you're pretty good on your

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Speaker 6: assessment of the three. They're gonna win their conference championships

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Speaker 6: and get in, but ultimately that Notre Dame win against

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Speaker 6: Clemson is probably what's going to give them the four seed. Plus,

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Speaker 6: keep in mind collegetball Playoff has never had a two

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Speaker 6: loss team. They value conference championships and one loss records

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Speaker 6: over anything. And if they can maintain a COVID nineteen

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty pandemic college Reball Playoff with four Power five

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Speaker 6: teams and nobody has two laws losses I remember they

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Speaker 6: had an Ohio State team a couple of years ago

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Speaker 6: with two losses that deserve to be in the College

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Speaker 6: Football Playoff, and instead they took an out large Alabama,

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Speaker 6: who then went on to win the national title. But

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Speaker 6: the committee hates two lost teams period. So I think,

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Speaker 6: if you're Iowa State, this is nice that you've gotten

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Speaker 6: this high and you're about to break some program records,

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Speaker 6: but you're not going to make the playoff. And sadly enough,

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Speaker 6: the Cincinnati dream is dead falling from seventh to eighth

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Speaker 6: without playing. You have one game against Tulsa. Good job

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Speaker 6: screwing Tulsa out of Senior Night, good job screwing them

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Speaker 6: out of homecoming earlier this season. But Cincinnati's basically done.

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Speaker 6: They got to be Tulsa for a New Year six game.

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Speaker 6: If they lose that game, that's where we get our

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Speaker 6: coastal New Year six, which really is a dream. So

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Speaker 6: you sprinkled it there at the beginning, and I'll end

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Speaker 6: by saying this Ohio State is going to play Northwestern

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Speaker 6: in the Big Ten Championship and they are not going

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Speaker 6: to get exposed in their secondary whatsoever. They more than

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Speaker 6: likely are going to get Clemson in the Rose Bowl.

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Speaker 6: They the matchup that they need terribly is Notre Dame

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Speaker 6: because Clemson and Alabama will tear their secondary apart. If

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Speaker 6: you're Ohio State, you want to be seated up with

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Speaker 6: Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl and that two three spot.

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Speaker 6: So if you're you know, a Buckeyes fan, you're cheering

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Speaker 6: the Irish pretty hard, uh to be Clemson because Clemson

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Speaker 6: and Alabama will do dirty things of the Ohio State secondary.

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Speaker 2: What about the Pac twelve there we're gonna get to the USA.

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Speaker 4: Can they get it?

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Speaker 2: Can they get into this conversation if you have an

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Speaker 2: undefeated Pac twelve championship?

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Speaker 4: Or is it too too little?

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Speaker 6: I know the committee's now looking at the things that

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Speaker 6: I look at, and I put out a college football

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Speaker 6: playoff preview on Tuesday on Action Network, and it's got

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Speaker 6: some really nice pretty charts that I put together that

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Speaker 6: show the previous College for Ball playoff contenders, what their

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Speaker 6: success rate is, what their explosiveness, and what they're finishing

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Speaker 6: drives is. From an advanced statistical standpoint, Packwall does not

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Speaker 6: belong anywhere near this playoff.

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Speaker 4: YEP, I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: Let's get into our let's say we haven't done in

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Speaker 2: a couple of weeks and look at some situational spots

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Speaker 2: here and get into some look ahead or look.

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Speaker 1: Away hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot.

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Speaker 4: Is it time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 2: This is the second we do when there's a couple

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Speaker 2: situational spots that jump out. Ultimately, the decision to play

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Speaker 2: a game will boil a lot down to where we

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Speaker 2: make the number and the discrepancy between our number and

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Speaker 2: the market. But situational angles do play a role in

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Speaker 2: college football and college basketball. You could have a team

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Speaker 2: coming off of a big game that comes out a

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Speaker 2: little flat.

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Speaker 4: There could be a lack.

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Speaker 2: Of focus, The teams might not show as much. They

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Speaker 2: could start as a little sooner than usual. All these

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Speaker 2: factors have to be considered, and with the conference championship

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Speaker 2: weekend next week, we have quite a few of these games.

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Speaker 2: We already mentioned that Northwestern.

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Speaker 1: Cats Cats.

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Speaker 2: Northwestern will take on Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship,

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Speaker 2: but before that, Northwestern this weekend will take on Illinois

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Speaker 2: at bet MGM, the official adds provider of the Action

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Speaker 2: Network podcast. Northwestern is a fourteen point favorite over under

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Speaker 2: forty forty four zero, we're going low in Evanston. Keep

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Speaker 2: in mind they're twenty five to thirty mile an hour

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Speaker 2: wins this weekend there and if on the Action Network

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Speaker 2: app and actionework dot com. My friend Danny Donohue alum,

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Speaker 2: he has always puts out a great article highlighting every

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Speaker 2: weekend wind relevant where all the weather games are Illinois

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Speaker 2: Northwestern's twenty four to twenty five mile hour wins. The

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Speaker 2: totals come down five points wake Loiso. By the way,

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Speaker 2: Western Michigan ball State will get to there's a bunch

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Speaker 2: of games on here that you're gonna want to keep

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Speaker 2: your eye on for weather. Wisconsin Iowa could have some

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Speaker 2: snow and big wins there. So in this game, the

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Speaker 2: question is, I mean, just with on principle, when Northwestern's

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Speaker 2: laying fourteen and the total is forty, I have to

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Speaker 2: look at the dog, especially with the Northwestern already locked

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Speaker 2: into the Big Ten championship next weekend. So I made

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Speaker 2: the line right around where it is. But this situation,

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Speaker 2: the total, the weather make me want nikked out the

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Speaker 2: A line. I had a triaguing dog to me thoughts here.

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Speaker 6: Well, Illinois is one of those teams like Virginia Tech,

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Speaker 6: you and Iron. It's just like it's like a new

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Speaker 6: jigsaw puzzle every week for us try to put together.

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Speaker 6: Because of the COVID disruption to the rosters, we don't know,

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Speaker 6: like I, have we seen their best effort, have we

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Speaker 6: seen their healthiest effort? Or what have we seen with

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Speaker 6: these teams? And I think when I go back to

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Speaker 6: this spread, and I look at this total, and you

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Speaker 6: consider the fact that it's like eighty percent pre SIP

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Speaker 6: twenty five mount our winds, so maybe worse, Like you said,

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Speaker 6: there is no room for air out of Northwestern here

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Speaker 6: as far as if you want to go under the

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Speaker 6: total of forty. And when you look at the Illinois spread,

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Speaker 6: I think the spread is fine. It's where it should be.

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Speaker 6: But what I have issues with is the one place

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Speaker 6: where Northwestern struggles, which is defending rush explosiveness. Illinois has

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Speaker 6: a pair of backs that are averaging like six yards

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Speaker 6: per carry, you know, I mean Brandon Peters has recovered

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Speaker 6: from COVID nineteen and I think the conditions are going

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Speaker 6: to limit his pass attempts. I think this is going

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Speaker 6: to be a complete rush game. But for Illinois, both

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Speaker 6: Chase Brown and like Epstein have have had explosive runs,

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Speaker 6: and they ranked second in the Big Twelve in total

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Speaker 6: rushing yards. I think Illinois deserves a look at fourteen

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Speaker 6: and a half. We're not there yet right now, we're

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Speaker 6: sitting at fourteen and a half at bet MGM. I

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Speaker 6: would suggest taking that that is the bypoint because there's

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Speaker 6: just no room, you know, for Northwestern to not you know,

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Speaker 6: have a perfect game in these kinds of conditions where

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Speaker 6: it's just going to be two. Offense is running rush

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Speaker 6: attempts all day because the weather dictates there's not going

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Speaker 6: to even in third and long. You're probably running a

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Speaker 6: draw here. So I don't take much from Illinois's advanced stats.

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Speaker 6: They are top twenty five and offensive rush explosiveness. I

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Speaker 6: think they're going to be able to break a couple

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Speaker 6: and remember in the bad weather, I mean think about

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Speaker 6: a little miss Alabama. Sometimes that favors the offense because

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Speaker 6: they make the juke move, they know where they're going,

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Speaker 6: and the defense has a problem with their footing. It

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Speaker 6: doesn't always, you know, favor the defense here. So I

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Speaker 6: think over is the way that I'm looking here. Illinois

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Speaker 6: is just such a tough handicap. I would bet more

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Speaker 6: on the fact that they're going to go over forty

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Speaker 6: than I would on the fact Illinois plus fourteen and

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Speaker 6: a half. But those are the two sides that I'm

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Speaker 6: looking at.

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Speaker 2: And just real quickly, we're going to spend next week

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Speaker 2: going really deep into all the conference championship games. But

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Speaker 2: as of right now, in Ohio State, look headline twenty

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Speaker 2: and a half point favorite against Northwestern, fair or foul.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's I mean, the number I have is nineteen

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Speaker 6: and a half with a total of about in the

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Speaker 6: high fifties. And you know this is Northwestern does not

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Speaker 6: have the goods to challenge Ohio State.

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Speaker 4: Ohio State can name it.

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Speaker 6: I think if they're gonna name it, they want to

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Speaker 6: secure a Rose Bowl spot because they don't want to

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Speaker 6: face Alabama down in the Sugar Bowl.

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Speaker 4: So we'll see how they do.

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Speaker 6: You know, this is the same Big Ten championship I

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Speaker 6: believe we just had a couple of years ago, and

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Speaker 6: I think the spread was seventeen and a half in

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Speaker 6: Ohio State didn't have a problem covering that. Yeah, I

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Speaker 6: think the number is spot on correct, and it'll probably

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Speaker 6: knowing the way the market's gonna behave, it's probably gonna

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Speaker 6: hang at twenty and a half, and we'll see if

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Speaker 6: northwester You're gonna get the job done, but I doubt it.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's move on here to a couple other

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Speaker 2: situational spots. Last week, the game of the weekend was

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Speaker 2: BYU Coastal Carolina. Went right down to the final second.

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Speaker 2: It felt like like a Group of five playoff game.

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Speaker 2: It was an emotional game. So you look this weekend,

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Speaker 2: and so for letdown for both of those seams, let's

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Speaker 2: start with the triple C dynasty.

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Speaker 4: Call.

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Speaker 2: They are at Troy, They've had a magic whole year.

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Speaker 2: They are right now Betams. You have thirteen and a

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Speaker 2: half point favorites at Troy over under fifty one and

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Speaker 2: a half at BETHAMGM. Look, they come off that huge

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Speaker 2: emotional win over Bau's double digit underdogs, and they're already

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Speaker 2: locked in to the Sun Belt Championship next weekend against Louisiana.

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Speaker 7: Don't let the latest come between you and the bill.

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Speaker 2: So this screams flat spot. I know you make the

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Speaker 2: line right around fourteen. I make it around twelve, throwing

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Speaker 2: the spot here, and this is now going to all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden, it turns into basically Troy's Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: and says I make it twelve and there was a

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Speaker 2: fourteen out there. Given the spot, I couldn't pass up

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Speaker 2: on the Trojans thoughts here.

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Speaker 6: Well, first off, how much are we going to be

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Speaker 6: putting on Coastal Carolina next week against Billy Napier?

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Speaker 4: Right? I can't even wait to get into that game.

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Speaker 6: But as far as this game goes, yeah, it was

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Speaker 6: the first bet that I made situational spot of the year.

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Speaker 6: I mean we're talking not just Coastal winning like the

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Speaker 6: Game of the Year, We're talking game of the program,

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Speaker 6: talking at night primetime TV college football playoff implications, this

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Speaker 6: biggest game that they've ever had their history until next

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Speaker 6: week when they play the Sun Belt Championship. So it's

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Speaker 6: a huge hangover slash overlook sandwich spot.

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Speaker 1: We sure have a lot of sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches sandwiches.

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Speaker 4: And so are the strangest location sandwiches I've ever seen.

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Speaker 6: And Troy, to their credit, is top ten in the

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Speaker 6: country in pass coverage. So Grayson McCall on these third

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Speaker 6: downs that he's had so much success, and if you

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Speaker 6: know anything about Coastal or you're watching any of their games.

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Speaker 6: They are fantastic in offensive success rate to the tune

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Speaker 6: of running fourteen plays, draining nine minutes off the clock,

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Speaker 6: being highly successful in scoring opportunities playing keep away, you

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Speaker 6: don't ever get to touch the ball. Troy has the

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Speaker 6: ability to do make a little disruption on the pass

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Speaker 6: defense from a pass coverage standpoint, and they're not really

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Speaker 6: a pushover in finishing drives. Their top forty in defense,

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Speaker 6: so and they have a better tackling grade than Coastal

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Speaker 6: Carolina does on their defense.

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Speaker 4: So I'm not saying Troy's gonna win the game.

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Speaker 6: It's a great spot and Troy should, you know, cover

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Speaker 6: the fourteen just based on spot alone. So we'll see

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Speaker 6: how it works out. But we're going to turn right

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Speaker 6: around and we're going to back Coastal against Louisiana. I'm

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Speaker 6: a little nervous about Louisiana's you know, the strength of

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Speaker 6: their rush game. But you know, Coastal's eight one and

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Speaker 6: one against the spread this year, and this may be

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Speaker 6: you know, you don't really want to get into the

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Speaker 6: habit of fading teams that keep on finding ways to

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Speaker 6: cover and make money for you. But we'll do it

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Speaker 6: this week and then we'll look to get back on

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Speaker 6: the coastal train next week.

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Speaker 2: Look at you all on the coastal back on the

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Speaker 2: coastal bandwagon after last weekend. I'm sorry I've left you now,

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Speaker 2: I've failed you, Triple C Nation. But get back to

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Speaker 2: that same game last week and then get BYU. Who

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Speaker 2: you know, they came up a yard short. They go

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Speaker 2: for we'll play anyone, anywhere, anytime, which they did in

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Speaker 2: fairness too. Then all right, now we have a loss

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Speaker 2: or outside shot. The college table playoff is no longer

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Speaker 2: even a dream. And now they come home and play

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Speaker 2: San Diego State at bet MGM.

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Speaker 4: BYU is a ba' is.

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Speaker 2: A seventeen and a half point favorite over under forty

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Speaker 2: eight and a half against San Diego State. And the

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Speaker 2: question here is like this, BYU, just come out flat.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 2: The one thing I have to mention about San Diego

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Speaker 2: State my worst take of the college football season. Of

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Speaker 2: course I've had many, but was Tennessee having a great

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Speaker 2: offensive line that's going to make them competitive. I think

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Speaker 2: your worst take has been about the San Diego State offense.

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Speaker 2: The San Diego State offense, I don't know why they

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Speaker 2: keep naming the wrong quarterback. They said again, Brookshire is

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Speaker 2: going to start at quarterback this weekend. He is so bad,

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Speaker 2: so bad. Last week he went Santaego State won, but

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Speaker 2: he went fourteen of twenty four for one hundred and

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Speaker 2: thirty yards. He's worse than Baker, and Baker was playing poorly.

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Speaker 2: Against Colorado the week before, Brookshire went seven of nineteen

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Speaker 2: for fifty yards and a pick average two point sixty

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Speaker 2: yards per time. I mean, these offensive numbers are pathetic.

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Speaker 2: And they have that kid Johnson. I don't know why

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Speaker 2: they don't put him in. He can at least run

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Speaker 2: toward the tech transfer. They said that he might have

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Speaker 2: a short leash this week, so maybe they put him in.

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Speaker 2: The week before against to WHII, Baker went four of

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Speaker 2: thirteen for thirty yards. Like, San Diego State's passing numbers

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Speaker 2: are so bad, So if BYU shows up here, you know,

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Speaker 2: an under might be a good look. If you think

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Speaker 2: BA is gonna come out flat too. You don't trust

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Speaker 2: the San Diego State offense. But if YU cares at all,

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Speaker 2: I don't think San Diego State could keep up with them.

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Speaker 2: Thoughts here, it's.

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Speaker 6: Not really that I like betting on San Diego State

342
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Speaker 6: which I have a couple times this season. I like

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Speaker 6: betting their overs. They're you know, three overs this year,

344
00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:58,520
Speaker 6: four unders. So it's paid off some and sometimes it hasn't.

345
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Speaker 6: Did last week against Colorado State. But the thing is

346
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Speaker 6: is they're.

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Speaker 4: It's paid off none. Well, their totals move so much.

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Speaker 6: I think it depends on what you're grading against, because

349
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 6: these totals move like eight points on San Diego State

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Speaker 6: to the point where he gets down to like forty,

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Speaker 6: and then you're like, well, I mean it's so easy

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Speaker 6: to go over.

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Speaker 2: Admit this San Diego State offense sucks.

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Speaker 4: I can't admit I love.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, these guys are.

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Speaker 6: They are twelfth in the nation in rush explosiveness. It's

357
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Speaker 6: just electric when you see him take off.

358
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Speaker 4: I love it. Oh let's let me tell.

359
00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 6: A little story. I'm gonna go deep into my past.

360
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Speaker 6: Show some of the podcast listeners how old I Am?

361
00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 6: In nineteen ninety eight, Arkansas was undefeated eight no and

362
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Speaker 6: went to play Tennessee eight no.

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Speaker 4: Woo pig suy.

364
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Speaker 6: What I'm gonna get to here is I believe a

365
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:52,200
Speaker 6: team reflects their coach. If a coach is high strung

366
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Speaker 6: and emotional, that feeds off onto the players that feeds

367
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Speaker 6: off onto the team that feeds off onto the field

368
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Speaker 6: and eight and no Arkansas went to play at Tennessee

369
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Speaker 6: against eight and no Tennessee, who eventually went on to

370
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Speaker 6: play and win the National championship the year after Peyton

371
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Speaker 6: Manning left. But Arkansas had the biggest soul crushing loss

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Speaker 6: in football that we've had in decades. And everybody remembers

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Speaker 6: that game. I mean, it's in our intro of our

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Speaker 6: podcast that Sterner stumbled and fumbled.

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Speaker 4: Got and Houston.

376
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Speaker 6: Nutt is a highly erratic, emotional coach, and he just is.

377
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Speaker 6: He was never able in his coaching tenure ever to

378
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:39,600
Speaker 6: recover from losses. When he took an emotional loss, he

379
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,480
Speaker 6: lost the next game. And so the next week after

380
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Speaker 6: we lost to eight and no.

381
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Speaker 4: Eight oh eight No.

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Speaker 6: And we lost Tennessee, we lost Mississippi State, a team

383
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Speaker 6: that had no business being on the same field as us.

384
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Speaker 6: And that is a reflection of poor coaching coaches that

385
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Speaker 6: don't have enough character to get their kids back up

386
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Speaker 6: off the mat. How it relates to this game, I

387
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 6: think it's a direct opposite with Byu. I think Colonie

388
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,359
Speaker 6: Sataki is the exact opposite of Houston Nut and I

389
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,880
Speaker 6: believe BYU is going to come out here and want

390
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 6: to dust you know, dust themselves off, get up off

391
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 6: the mat, and you know, beg a statement. Can't make

392
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,920
Speaker 6: a new year six here that that looks like it's

393
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 6: been shot, but we can still make ourselves a great

394
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:20,520
Speaker 6: bowl game, and by you could still have a fantastic season.

395
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:22,680
Speaker 6: And Zach Wilson came out this week and said there's

396
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Speaker 6: no way I'm opting out of whatever bowl we fall into.

397
00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 6: So that's the only indicator. Like I went and read,

398
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 6: you know, some of the pressers and some of the stuff.

399
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,480
Speaker 6: But Zack Wilson coming out this week and saying, I'm

400
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 6: not opting out for whatever bowl we land in. This

401
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 6: team I think is tuned in, and I believe in

402
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 6: Colonie Sataki and being able to get up off the mat,

403
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 6: brush themselves off and put a thumping down on San

404
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 6: Diego State. So I like the over here. I don't

405
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 6: know about covering I make it a little bit less.

406
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:47,199
Speaker 6: I think it's a bit inflated, but I think the

407
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:48,400
Speaker 6: over is the play here all the way.

408
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 4: Not to mention San.

409
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:53,159
Speaker 6: Diego State well, and not to mention the San Diego

410
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 6: State's defense is one hundred and twenty third against rush explosiveness.

411
00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 6: That's almost dead last. So Tyler Algiers, it's just gonna

412
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:02,959
Speaker 6: run wild. B Why you should be able to break

413
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,479
Speaker 6: a sixty yard run. They're gonna give him the Navy treatment.

414
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,879
Speaker 6: Just be able to break runs from any point on

415
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 6: the field.

416
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,360
Speaker 2: Well, the good news is there's not too many Santyvia

417
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 2: State overs left for you a bet twenty. Let's move

418
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 2: on to our final two situational spots here, and that

419
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:24,920
Speaker 2: has to do with the SEC Championship next weekend, which

420
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 2: is already set in stone with Alabama taking on Florida.

421
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 2: As of right now, that look aheadline looks like it's

422
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:36,400
Speaker 2: at about two touchdowns. I'm not sure how Florida gets stops,

423
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 2: and it'll come down to how many stops Bama can get.

424
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 2: That's basically what's gonna determine the cover, which we'll talk

425
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 2: about next week. But before then, both teams have games

426
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 2: this weekend. Now luckily they're not I don't think either

427
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 2: could lose any of these games, but we don't really

428
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 2: care about that. We care about the cover here. And

429
00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 2: more importantly, it's like Florida's playoff chances hinge on next weekend.

430
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 2: They have to win. It doesn't matter if they beat

431
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 2: LSU by nine or fourteen. If they beat Alabama, they're

432
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 2: going to the College Wall Playoff. I assume shouldn't say

433
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:16,120
Speaker 2: that with any certainty or guarantee. I bet Alabama they

434
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 2: just can't lose this game. But if they beat Florida,

435
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 2: they're in. If they lose to Florida, they might still

436
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 2: be in, but like you don't want to really risk

437
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 2: anyone getting hurt at this point. So Alabama at that

438
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 2: MGM thirty two point favorite over under sixty eight, and

439
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 2: then you have Florida twenty two point favorite over under

440
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 2: sixty seven at home against LSU. Florida seems a little high,

441
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:44,119
Speaker 2: especially with their defense and with their whole season resting

442
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 2: on next weekend. But there's a lot going on at LSU,

443
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 2: and I don't know where they're at mentally, which makes

444
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 2: that tough.

445
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 4: There's no question about it.

446
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 2: I'll turn to you with Bama Arkansas, but this might

447
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 2: be one of those games where I look at Arkansas

448
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 2: in the second half as I assume BAM is just

449
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 2: gonna put the car in neutral and coast for the

450
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 2: entire second half if they have a big lead. But

451
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 2: as always I turned to you for Arkansas. So what

452
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 2: are your thoughts on these two games?

453
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 4: Here?

454
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 6: Put the car in neutral, will put the rocket ship

455
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 6: in neutral? Alabama should stomp a mudhole in Arkansas. But

456
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 6: there is you know, situations to acknowledge in this matchup.

457
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 6: There's no beef between Sam Pittman and Nick Saban. There's

458
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 6: a lot of mutual respect. And I think what you

459
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:37,159
Speaker 6: saw the last two weeks was Nick Saban keeping his

460
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 6: number ones on defense out there till the last drive

461
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 6: against Auburn and LSU. He's got an axe to grind,

462
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 6: he's got a grudge against coach O. He's not too

463
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 6: fond of Auburn either, and getting a cover for his fan.

464
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,199
Speaker 6: And by the way, Nick Saban knows who the number is.

465
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 6: He told you know, Lane Kiffin that he absolutely knows

466
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 6: how to cover, and so you know, he made a

467
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 6: covering effort against both his arch rival and now he's

468
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 6: got to go up to Fayetteville when all and hopefully

469
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 6: keep you know, health for all of his players. Right now,

470
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 6: as Jalen Model is rehabbing and getting ready for the playoff,

471
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 6: he's got to keep full health for the SEC Championship

472
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 6: next week. So I think the name of the game

473
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 6: here is get in, get Mac Jones his yards and

474
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 6: his touchdowns for the Heisman, and get out. So I

475
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,679
Speaker 6: could see something easily being in Alabama thirty eight to

476
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 6: zero first half score. And the thing with Arkansas is

477
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 6: Felipe Franks is probably not going to play with his injury.

478
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,360
Speaker 6: We lost our team captain on defense, Grant Morgan. He's

479
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 6: third and FBS and tackles. He's still not practicing for

480
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 6: the Hogs as of today. Huge loss on the defense

481
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,639
Speaker 6: for the Razorbacks. The word on the word on Dixon's

482
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 6: street is that he's got a knee sprain, and so

483
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 6: he's probably not even going to play in our bowl game.

484
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 6: Secondary is going to be depleted Monterrek Brown, he'll be

485
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,919
Speaker 6: missing from the defense with an undisclosed injury. Alabama's going

486
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 6: to be able to score as much as they want.

487
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 6: The question is is when do they stop scoring? When

488
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 6: do they pull that out and start putting in the

489
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 6: twos and threes? And I think that happens probably at halftime.

490
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,360
Speaker 6: So you know, Arkansas is running quicker with kJ Jefferson.

491
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 6: We'll pivot over to Arkansas. Now, there's no give up

492
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 6: in this team. It's not like they're going to get

493
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 6: down by forty five and stop trying to score. And

494
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 6: even in losing efforts. Sam Pittman has been questioned after

495
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 6: the game saying, do you need to you know, look

496
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 6: at your tempo, maybe curb your tempo, and he said, no,

497
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 6: we just need to do it better. Last week when

498
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 6: kJ Jefferson came in against Missouri, Arkansas who averaged twenty

499
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 6: one point eight seconds per play actually increased two seconds

500
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 6: to like under twenty seconds per play with kJ Jefferson,

501
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 6: And so I think Treylon Burks, Treylon Smith, these weapons

502
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 6: of kJ Jefferson has. It's all about the third quarter

503
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 6: and fourth quarter. So yes, that full game spread at

504
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 6: thirty two, that is back door territory. Complete backdoor territory.

505
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 6: But the proper way to play this game is to

506
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:55,159
Speaker 6: take the over in the first half. Maybe Arkansas can contribute,

507
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 6: I doubt it. Maybe they get a touchdown on the

508
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 6: board and contribute, but the play in this game is

509
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 6: to definitely take a staff over thirty six and a

510
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 6: half would be preferred. And then once this game is

511
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 6: in the second quarter, keep an eye on the middle eight.

512
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 6: Will Arkansas receive the ball in the second half. If

513
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 6: they do receive the ball in the second half, you

514
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 6: want to make a live wager on Arkansas before their

515
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 6: last possession in the second quarter, and hopefully you can

516
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 6: get that number above thirty five. Maybe the live numbers

517
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 6: in the forties. That's the perfect way to play this game.

518
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 4: Any interest in LSU Florida.

519
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 6: This LSU team is just I mean, you read some

520
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 6: of this stuff, it's like a horror script. And the problem,

521
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 6: you know, the LSU has now lost you know, Eric Gilbert,

522
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 6: Terris Marshall, Racy McGrath. Those are three of the three

523
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 6: of the top five receivers for this team. And then

524
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 6: Jerry Jenkins is questionable for the game, which boute becomes

525
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 6: like they're only wide receiver on the team. And then

526
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 6: if you look at what Florida's weakness is, it's the

527
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,199
Speaker 6: rush defense. They're terrible at defending the rush. So that

528
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 6: makes me wonder if if Max Johnson is going to

529
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 6: get the start right he's the more mobile dual threat quarterback,

530
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 6: if there's going to be a lot more handoffs to

531
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 6: Tyrian Davis Price, to John Henry Junior I project this

532
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 6: game in sixty one, like a full touchdown lower than

533
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 6: what it's at and I'm not sure if Florida is

534
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:04,640
Speaker 6: going to try to run this score up. There were

535
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:09,120
Speaker 6: some murmurs coming out in the news about how Florida

536
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 6: was not happy with the way the LSU game turned

537
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 6: out last season. Well, I got news for you, Like

538
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 6: everybody has got a vendetta against what LSU did in

539
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 6: twenty nineteen, So everybody's trying to get their licks in

540
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 6: against coach O and these players that are in LSU uniforms.

541
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 6: So I'm not sure how far Florida is going to

542
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 6: take this. The number is inflated. Like you mentioned, I'm

543
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 6: not going to lay anything pregame. I'm definitely not gonna

544
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 6: lay anything on LSU. But it'll be interesting to see

545
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 6: what the game plan is because if you want to

546
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 6: attack Florida, you're going to do it on the ground,

547
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 6: and that would mean Max Johnson needs to be your quarterback.

548
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 6: And if that's the case and we're running a whole

549
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 6: bunch more, I'm taking the under. So I think under

550
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 6: sixty eight or maybe alive under. In the second quarter,

551
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 6: after Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts take a seat is

552
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 6: the best way to go.

553
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 2: All right, let's move in to the marquee games of

554
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 2: the weekend.

555
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

556
00:27:58,960 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 1: the marquee matchup.

557
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 2: Will all end up betting. All right, let's start in

558
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 2: the Big Ten with Wisconsin and Iowa at bet MGM.

559
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 2: Right now, Wisconsin is a one and a half point

560
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 2: favorite over under forty two and a half with the

561
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 2: unders minus one twenty five, a lot of weather, a

562
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,479
Speaker 2: lot of wind. Scott's one of my fair players the weekend.

563
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 2: I was kind of giving shit the Graham Mertz. Everyone

564
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 2: was fam boying him after the first game, and you

565
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:29,239
Speaker 2: know he's lost his pass too, but I still have.

566
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,159
Speaker 2: I mean, the Wisconsin d has been unbelievable by the

567
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 2: advanced vegan on the schedule has has been great either

568
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 2: as Iowa's but like from an efficiency standpoint, from an

569
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 2: EPA standpoint, they've been like the best defense in the

570
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 2: nation and a lot of metrics. So defense has been

571
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 2: really good. They're not getting as much pressure as they

572
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 2: normally do with their three aggressive, three four flitzing defense,

573
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 2: but the defense has been great. The rushing attack has

574
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 2: been much better than I thought there's no explosiveness there,

575
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: but they can. They can grind out yards on you.

576
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 2: I look at this, I mean, I make them over

577
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 2: a field goal favorite. So I grabbed minus one. I've

578
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 2: loved minus one. So minus one and a half is

579
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 2: fine because look, Iowa was five and two. Iowa is

580
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 2: the ranked team here. Wisconsints two and two. I think

581
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 2: that what's really driving this number is kind of the

582
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 2: perception of these two teams. But you know, you see

583
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 2: Wisconsin lose fourteen to six last week to Indiana. By

584
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 2: the way, Indiana finishes seven, and when they were out

585
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 2: gained on the year, Indiana was out gained in that

586
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 2: game three hundred and forty two to two hundred and

587
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 2: seventeen yards. Wisconsin average five yeards to play, held Indiana

588
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 2: to four. They lost fourteen to six. I mean, their

589
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,239
Speaker 2: Northwestern beat Wisconsint seventeen to seven. In their game before that,

590
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 2: Wisconsin finished with three hundred and sixty six yards Northwestern

591
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 2: two sixty three three point nine yards per play, and

592
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 2: then they rolled Michigan and they rolled Illinois.

593
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 4: So they've just been really.

594
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 2: Unfortunate in their two losses. So I just trust their

595
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 2: defense more. And by the way Grandmarts might be getting

596
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 2: I don't think. I think Dandy Davis might be out again,

597
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 2: but Prior might be coming back. He hasn't had his

598
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 2: two best receivers. But I trust this Wisconsin defense more.

599
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 2: You know, maybe snow heavy win game. And I think

600
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 2: that we're just getting some value here based on some

601
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 2: recent fluky results with Bucky. So give me the Badgers

602
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 2: here at minus one, minus one and a half.

603
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 6: You agree, yeah, And there's other points to be made

604
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 6: about the Wisconsin defense, and especially in this matchup. You know,

605
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 6: Wisconsin is one of the best third down defenses in

606
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 6: the nation, and this Iowa offense is pathetic on third

607
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 6: downs outside the top one hundred. They've converted thirty three

608
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 6: of ninety three attempts on third down. So Wisconsin is

609
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 6: going to dominate third downs here and get Iowa off

610
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 6: the field. Listen, there could be a lack of points here,

611
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 6: and I don't think it's just because of weather. I

612
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 6: just think it's because of both defenses. As Stuck mentioned,

613
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 6: Wisconsin is playing out of their mind on defense, but

614
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 6: the offense just has no juice. In nine possessions against India,

615
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 6: and the offense averaged one point per trip past the

616
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 6: forty yard line. That is terrible. Wisconsin is moving the ball,

617
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 6: they're getting into scoring position, they're coming away with zero points.

618
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 6: And when I say zero points, when they face Northwestern,

619
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 6: they had six drives across the forty yard line. They

620
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 6: did come up with a point, a single point from

621
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 6: their finishing drives. So you know, Iowa's top five against explosiveness,

622
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 6: so I don't expect Wisconsin to have any you know,

623
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 6: chunk yardage in here. I think, you know, mentioning what

624
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 6: Iowa offensively is on third down and mentioning how unexplosive

625
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 6: and there's no juice in the Wisconsin offense. I think

626
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 6: you got to take an under here. I mean, no

627
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 6: matter what the weather is, whether it's bad or it's

628
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 6: good or whatever, I think you got to take an

629
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 6: under here. And no matter what the number is.

630
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, Wisconsin is a snail, an absolute snail. But yeah,

631
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 2: I mean just look again, just to hammer who my point,

632
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 2: I would start off the year losing to Purdue. That

633
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: loss looks, I mean, that loss looks worse now than

634
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 2: it did. Then they lost in Northwestern by one, you know,

635
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 2: just a random game. Then they blew up Michigan State

636
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 2: I mean, who cares, Oh my god, who cash they.

637
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 4: Blew out Minnesota?

638
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: That looks a lot less.

639
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 6: Like, who cares they blew defense that they had COVID

640
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 6: defense week with Minnesota when they blew them out too.

641
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, they blew out Penn State forty one twenty one.

642
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 2: But do you dig a little deeper there? Box score

643
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 2: dead even?

644
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 4: Uh?

645
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 2: You know, they barely beat Nebraska, they need a touchdown

646
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter. Last weekend they beat Illinois, So like,

647
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 2: I'm not blown away by the result of Illinois had

648
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 2: three hundred and fifty yards on them. So I think

649
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 2: this is a good spot to get in on Wisconsin.

650
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,479
Speaker 2: I'm talking about finishing drives in Wisconsin. Where's your San

651
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 2: Diego State offense? They can't finish drives either, A.

652
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 4: Right, sorry, still take over regression for both.

653
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 2: Let's let's get Wisconsin to the end zone here and

654
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 2: San Diego State for you this weekend. Let's move on

655
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 2: to our second marquee game of the day. Let's talk

656
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 2: a little acc at bet MGM. North Carolina is a

657
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 2: three and a half point underdog at Miami number ten.

658
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 2: Miami over under sixty seven.

659
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 4: And a half.

660
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 2: I have some over and I really like UNC kind

661
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 2: of feels like DejaVu. Similar numbers total with Notre Dame.

662
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 2: But we talked about this in the NFL podcast that

663
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 2: came out today. You got to when you're betting, you

664
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 2: gotta be a cornerback. You gotta have a short term memory.

665
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 2: And I make this line basically a coin flip, and

666
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 2: I make the total a little higher. There's a bunch

667
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 2: of notes on here. I'll try to be a little concise.

668
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 2: Miami has I mean, they're coming off just a ridiculous

669
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 2: dominant win over Duke, but it was Duke, which is

670
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 2: kind of a theme for them. Their schedule has been

671
00:33:58,040 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 2: kind of a joke this year, and they've played an

672
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 2: number of backup quarterbacks. When they played Pitt, I mean,

673
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 2: Pay with Joey Yellen is like a bad Sun Belt team.

674
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 2: That offense, it's just terrific. They played NC State when

675
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 2: they had a backup quarterback, So the offenses against NC

676
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 2: State they weren't even that great on defense. So the

677
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 2: offenses that they've played haven't been that great overall. So

678
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 2: I think some of their defensive numbers are inflated. I

679
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 2: love their defensive line. Look, you got Phillips and Rochet

680
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 2: on the outside, you got Silver on the inside. They

681
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 2: can all generate a ton of pressure. That's the strength

682
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 2: of the Miami defense, but they're vulnerable against the run.

683
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 4: And I don't buy their secondary.

684
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 2: And I think that's really where North Carolina, who can

685
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 2: run the ball as well as any team in the

686
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 2: country with Jehanti Williams and Michael Carr are probably the

687
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 2: best one to duo in college football. Their top ten

688
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 2: rush success rate, Miami seventieth in that department. And then

689
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,239
Speaker 2: when it comes to you know, North Carolina's a top ten,

690
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 2: top fifteen, top twenty offensive. Well, Miami's secondary don't. I'm

691
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,240
Speaker 2: not a believer in it. I know to Corey Couch

692
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 2: has played well and he took over for Blades, who's

693
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 2: now out for the year. Blades is getting picked on

694
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 2: a little bit, and they Couch took over on the outside.

695
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,399
Speaker 2: The problem without Blades now is out for the year

696
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 2: is they have two true freshmen that are probably going

697
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 2: to be out there.

698
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 4: They don't have one.

699
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 2: But they have no depth here because Christian Williams transferred

700
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 2: back in December. Huge question marks for Miami's secondary here

701
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 2: and their run defense. Are they going to create some

702
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 2: havoc with their pass rush. At times, potentially you could

703
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:41,840
Speaker 2: see a defensive touchdown or a fumble because the UNC

704
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 2: offensive line has been really bad. Left tackle Seeing Richards

705
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 2: has allowed six sacks twenty four pressures. That's fifth and

706
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 2: six worths in the conference. Right tackle Jordan Tucker's allowed

707
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 2: thirteen pressures in one sacks fifty seven point eight pass

708
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 2: block and grade from PFF. So that's going to be

709
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 2: worrisome against Phillips and Roche as you get into passing

710
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,359
Speaker 2: down situations. And their interior has been bad as well.

711
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,280
Speaker 2: They're both guards and center position have allowed to combine

712
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 2: thirty nine quarterback pressures. But I just think that U

713
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 2: and C will have plenty of success running the ball

714
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:16,880
Speaker 2: that you're not going to be in too many of

715
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 2: these situations on the other side of the ball. Baby

716
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 2: can't really. I mean, Biby's who they've been last year,

717
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 2: just an approved version that it's all relying on explosiveness.

718
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 4: They are who we thought they were.

719
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:33,840
Speaker 2: It's an all or nothing type of offense, and I

720
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 2: think the reason for that is a big part of

721
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,399
Speaker 2: that is their offensive line. It's not a good offensive line.

722
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 2: Ninety seventh in line yards ninety fifth and sackerye. So

723
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 2: there's no consistency here. There's no running game. They can

724
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 2: hit some big runs, but North Carolina does struggle that

725
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,400
Speaker 2: has struggled against mobile quarterbacks this year. That could be

726
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 2: a problem against de Eric King. Their secondary numbers from

727
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 2: have been pretty bad for North Carolina, but they've been

728
00:36:56,719 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 2: without basically their entire secondary all year life and they've

729
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,439
Speaker 2: had so many injuries. They're playing a bunch of true

730
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 2: freshmen throughout the year. But Kyler McMichael their second best corner.

731
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 2: He recently returned. Storm Duck probably their best corner. He's

732
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 2: missed the last six games. I think he's gonna play

733
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 2: this week, so their secondary could be improved here. But

734
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 2: I ultimately think that it's a coin flip game. I'll

735
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 2: gladly take. Gladly took three that I would still take

736
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,439
Speaker 2: plus three. Jikwa doesn't play really fast, but they should

737
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,959
Speaker 2: have a ton of success here. Miami is a speed racer.

738
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 2: They should hit some explosive plays. So I think there's

739
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,839
Speaker 2: gonna be plenty of points here. Give me the over

740
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 2: and give me the heels, and hopefully we don't have

741
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:38,439
Speaker 2: a repeat performance from that. Notre Dame game thoughts here.

742
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I'll echo the over with you.

743
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 6: I mean, Miami's pass covered drink of sixty third and

744
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 6: they're outside the top fifty and defending past explosiveness, that's

745
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 6: just you're asking for trouble against Sam Howell and that

746
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 6: elite unit of wide receivers. If I remember Miami allowed

747
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,879
Speaker 6: five hundred yards to Louisville, five hundred and fifty yards

748
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:57,560
Speaker 6: to Clemson. You know, and then you look at the

749
00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 6: other defense, you look at the Tar Hills defense, you

750
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 6: would see is they're good at getting pressure on the quarterback.

751
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:06,320
Speaker 6: That's about it. So they have sacharated the top thirty.

752
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,399
Speaker 6: But it's just ugly everywhere else. I mean, you mentioned

753
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,839
Speaker 6: the lineyards, they're terrible and havoc. They're terrible against pass explosiveness.

754
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 6: They're tackling rank is eighty second per PFF. It's just

755
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 6: not good with North Carolina on defense outside of flushing

756
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 6: the quarterback out of the pocket, which is something I

757
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 6: think dear King will do on his own without having

758
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 6: any pressure. So I think over is absolutely the way

759
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 6: to play this game. As far as the side for me,

760
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 6: I mean, I know I hate to defer off to live.

761
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 6: So if you're listening out there, like generally, you know,

762
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 6: limits of books are like one thousand dollars for live bets,

763
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 6: so if you're betting more than that, then maybe you

764
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 6: need to take a side. I think it's a game

765
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 6: where with such a high total, the pendulum is going

766
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 6: to swing both ways. It's just the game that I've

767
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,279
Speaker 6: targeted for Saturday where I would like to place a

768
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 6: live bet on North Carolina at plus seven Miami at

769
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 6: plus seven because I think there's a high probability this

770
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 6: is a one possession game at the end, which could

771
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 6: be some overtime. I'm We've had problems with that before

772
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 6: with the Oklahoma Texas series, so I think this is

773
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 6: the game that I've targeted for large swings to take

774
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 6: the point spread.

775
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 4: But I do like the over in this game. All right,

776
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 4: good stuff down there in Miami gardens.

777
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,399
Speaker 5: Hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I want

778
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 5: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast

779
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:22,919
Speaker 5: network locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

780
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

781
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 4: You are locked onn of the Dallas marriage Well.

782
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 2: Caome everybody to the Lockdown Lakers podcast.

783
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 4: Let's Go.

784
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 5: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

785
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 5: know your team better than anyone and give you the

786
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 5: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

787
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 5: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

788
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:48,240
Speaker 4: Let's move on to Army Navy.

789
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:49,919
Speaker 2: I'm excited for this one.

790
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 4: Ayma gets understand that, Oh shit, I can't hear you.

791
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 2: If you haven't seen out on Actioneork dot com The

792
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 2: Action I have a long write up for this game.

793
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 2: I even go to the history of this game, and

794
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 2: the first game was in eighteen ninety. They've played every

795
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:11,840
Speaker 2: year since nineteen thirty, but they actually didn't play ten times.

796
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 4: My favorite they didn't.

797
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 2: Play during World War One a couple of years. They

798
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:21,320
Speaker 2: didn't play a couple of years because of eligibility arguments.

799
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: There was a player death, but they didn't play it

800
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 2: for like four years in the mid eighties because after

801
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:29,279
Speaker 2: a game, there's two rumors about why. There was apparently

802
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 2: an argument between an admiral and a general and they

803
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 2: almost had a duel after the game. I mean, you

804
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 2: talk about how times have changed, and then there was

805
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 2: also concerns.

806
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:39,800
Speaker 4: Who is the president?

807
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 2: Then grew over Cleveland whoever the president was then about betting.

808
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 2: There was like scandal's betting going on, and here we

809
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 2: are now no duels anymore, no sir, and we're talking

810
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 2: about betting for I mean Navy. So the other interesting

811
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 2: thing about this game, it's not I mean, it feels

812
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 2: weird that this game is not on its own on

813
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:02,240
Speaker 2: a Saturday. It just mixed inst on the primary CBS slate.

814
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 2: Army at bet MGM right now is a seven point

815
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 2: favorite over under thirty seven and a half.

816
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 4: This is games. Game's gonna be played at West Point.

817
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 2: It's the first time that this game will be played

818
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 2: on a campus site since World War Two. Interesting tidbit

819
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 2: for that game was only fifteen thousand people attended because

820
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 2: FDR the president at the time, implemented a ten mile

821
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:36,320
Speaker 2: rule because they didn't want to interrupt the train service

822
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 2: during World War Two. So if you live within ten miles,

823
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 2: you go to the game. If not, you couldn't go.

824
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 2: Now we're gonna even less people. We're gonna even fewer

825
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 2: people there now because of COVID. There's not gonna be fans,

826
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 2: but there's gonna be Each school is gonna have their

827
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 2: students in the stands so there'll still be some atmosphere there.

828
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 2: Look what is the I mean, I took the under.

829
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 2: I took under forty a half, so I knew this

830
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:07,200
Speaker 2: was going to go down. This under has hit fourteen

831
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 2: straight years. The average over under over that time forty

832
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 2: nine point two. The average point scored thirty seven point four.

833
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: If every one of the totals were set at forty,

834
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 2: the under would have went nine to five and one

835
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 2: at it's set thirty seven and a half right now.

836
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 2: If it was set there, it would have a losing

837
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:25,880
Speaker 2: record at thirty eight, six, six and three. Thirty eight

838
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,720
Speaker 2: is obviously a key number. It's hit thirty eight three times.

839
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 2: You could have twenty one to seventeen. They're twenty eight ten.

840
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 2: You're at thirty eight, So I make it thirty six.

841
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 2: And I just think the market struggles to model service academies.

842
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 4: They're getting better.

843
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:43,839
Speaker 2: These totals used to open up at like forty eight

844
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 2: and come down, But I think it's getting close to

845
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 2: where it should be. And this might be the last

846
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 2: touching where the market's trending in recent years. This might

847
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 2: be the last under I bet in this series. But

848
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 2: I said fourteen straight years and the reason is simple.

849
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 2: If these have two running teams or two triple option

850
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:02,759
Speaker 2: off is that each team practices against every day. They're

851
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:04,880
Speaker 2: familiar with it. So the edge of having an unique

852
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 2: offense goes away. These defenses know how to defend it.

853
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 2: And then you have two teams that just eat up

854
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 2: the clock and they're just you have to model these

855
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 2: teams differently because three yards on first down is success.

856
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 2: Three yard run three yard run for Alabama is not

857
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 2: a success, right, and then because they're going to go

858
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 2: for a fourth to one all over the field. Now,

859
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 2: when you're playing an under forty and a half, I

860
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 2: would play it under thirty eight. Still you have no

861
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:28,879
Speaker 2: margin Ferrara, You just got to accept that. Like there's

862
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:32,280
Speaker 2: pitches in option off, Like depending on where the pitches

863
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:35,280
Speaker 2: are fumbled, if there are some, if there's a defensive touchdown,

864
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 2: you could be screwed. But the Navy offense is broken, broken.

865
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 2: They've used so many quarterbacks it's insane. And why is

866
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 2: it broken? Well, they're getting nothing from the quarterback position

867
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 2: and nothing from the stopback position. Malcolm Parry. Now, the

868
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 2: Dolphins set the FBS record for rushing yards for quarterback

869
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:57,239
Speaker 2: last year. They have been able to replace that. Their

870
00:43:57,360 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 2: quarterbacks are everaging one point four yards per carry. All

871
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 2: they have is the full back dive.

872
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:02,360
Speaker 4: That's it.

873
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 2: They're slot backs and their quarterbacks are averaging two point

874
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 2: eight yards per carry. They're full backs, Brothers and Smith.

875
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 2: They're averaging four point seven yards per carry.

876
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:15,879
Speaker 4: But that's army.

877
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 2: That's It's army strength is it's run, defensive stout up front.

878
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 2: They obviously know the triple option.

879
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:22,800
Speaker 4: There's just no thread on the outside for this Navy offense.

880
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 4: It's horrible.

881
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:29,799
Speaker 2: They are averaging three point seven yards per carry. That's

882
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 2: ninety six in the country. You have to go all

883
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 2: the way back to two thousand and one to.

884
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 4: Find the last time that Navy average under four yards

885
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:39,320
Speaker 4: per carry for a season. They're usually top ten. So

886
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 4: the only thing that could go right.

887
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:43,799
Speaker 2: I mean, Dale Morris is freshman quarterback. He's a pro

888
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 2: stop quarterback. But they put him in there and say

889
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 2: we're gonna throw it all day. The Unders probably screwed.

890
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 2: I'm assuming they don't do that, but you never know.

891
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,399
Speaker 2: But the offense is broken. The defense was awful early

892
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 2: in the year. It's been a lot better the past

893
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 2: two games.

894
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 4: It really held.

895
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 2: Tulsa and Memphis, and check held them both to under

896
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,800
Speaker 2: twenty points. So I think the defense is trending in

897
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 2: the right direction. The offense is just broken this year.

898
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 2: Nothing else you can say about it. Army, their defense

899
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 2: has played well. Their offense is okay.

900
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 4: They're averaging five yards of Carrie thirtieth in the nation.

901
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 2: But against the three competent defenses they face Tulane, Georgia, Southern, Cincinnati,

902
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,720
Speaker 2: they only average four yards per rush just for opponent.

903
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 2: This offense is a below average unit. So I just

904
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 2: don't think either of these offenses are any good this year.

905
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 2: I mean, Army's seven in two, but they have here

906
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 2: are there's seven wins Middle Tennessee, Louisiana, Monroe, Abalie, Christian

907
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 2: the Citadel Meet met Mercer, and Georgia Southern and Georgia

908
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 2: suddenly won on Flukes and that dominant in Boss Spoor.

909
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 2: So I don't think this their offense is any good.

910
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 2: So look, it's important to not just because it went

911
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 2: under fourteen years in a row doesn't mean it's gonna

912
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 2: under fifteen years in a row. And this is applicable

913
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:53,959
Speaker 2: to many things in betting. If there is a trend

914
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 2: that makes sense, and this one does. The market just

915
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 2: struggles to price triple option teams over longer than other things.

916
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,800
Speaker 2: Over time, the market is going to price out, you know,

917
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:08,239
Speaker 2: any trend advantage, any any one of these things that

918
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 2: people catch on to. It was kind of like West

919
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 2: Coast teams going east in the NFL ten fifteen years ago.

920
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 4: There's a lot of instances of this.

921
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 2: So don't just think because it's something's been free money

922
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:19,760
Speaker 2: in the past means that it's free money in the future.

923
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 4: That's why it's important to set a number.

924
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 2: And I've been fairly successful in service Academy betting, and

925
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:29,840
Speaker 2: I said this at thirty six, So give me the

926
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:30,800
Speaker 2: under here thoughts.

927
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, long gone in the days of the odds makers

928
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 4: just saying oh, we have you know, this team total

929
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 4: for this team and this one for this one.

930
00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 6: We'll put them together and oh, here you go. We

931
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 6: should put out an opener of fifty four, which allowed

932
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 6: you and me and a few other charp people that

933
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 6: are sharp out there to lay as many unders as

934
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:52,399
Speaker 6: possible before a closing number that would move like ten

935
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 6: points south. Those days are over now we're opening around

936
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 6: forty one, we're closing around thirty eight, thirty seven. So yeah,

937
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 6: the trend is not to be alive forever. At some

938
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 6: point these overs are going to start coming, especially with

939
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:04,360
Speaker 6: this thing keep.

940
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:07,479
Speaker 4: You know, continuing to dip. And you're right about Navy.

941
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 6: Can Reynolds isn't there, Malcolm Perry isn't there, And this

942
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 6: offense is horrendous. And the only thing that makes the

943
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 6: offense looks look worse for Navy is the defense. Defense

944
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 6: is outside the top one hundred in so many categories.

945
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 6: It's easier for me to name off the categories where

946
00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 6: they're not ranked outside the top one hundred. That would

947
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 6: be past explosiveness, which is, you know, crazy because they

948
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 6: don't really pass that much. So to me, the game,

949
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 6: the handicap in this game is all the same. It's

950
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 6: always trench warfare. You got to look at the lineyards,

951
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 6: you got to look at the power success, you got

952
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 6: to look at the stuff. Right, that's army on both

953
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 6: sides of the ball, not even close. When you look

954
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 6: at the advanced splits, I think it's huge home field advantage.

955
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:51,359
Speaker 6: Now I've read everything. There's going to be forty three

956
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 6: hundred corps of cadets. There's gonna be forty three hundred,

957
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 6: you know, Brigade of the Midshipman. You know, maybe I

958
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 6: believe they were requested that for every VIP pass that

959
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 6: Army gets, they get to have the same amount of

960
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:07,880
Speaker 6: VIP passes. So there should be an even number of

961
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 6: heads watching this game. But I think, you know, the

962
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 6: advantage is the travel perspective. But you know, I think

963
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 6: for Army it's a really big deal to play at

964
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 6: home and to play in their stadium and to play

965
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:23,000
Speaker 6: in front of their cadets and their fans. They're VIP fans.

966
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 6: So this has just been a struggle of a year

967
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:28,800
Speaker 6: for Navy. There's been rumors of their head coach, you know,

968
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 6: leaving for another job. There's a huge special team's advantage

969
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 6: here too, So when we think about punting or we

970
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:37,800
Speaker 6: think about field goal kicking, we're talking Army being twenty

971
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 6: seventh and spplus special teams and Navy being ninety ninth.

972
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:43,840
Speaker 6: Big advantage here. So I like Army up to the

973
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 6: seven the seven and a half. I think we may

974
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 6: be pushing it considering could be low scoring, but I

975
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 6: think it's Army or nothing here.

976
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,279
Speaker 2: I like how you said that the Navy head coach

977
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 2: and ken.

978
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 6: Man Ken, Yeah, we got that out of the way

979
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,239
Speaker 6: the first week against BYU, so I'm not we can

980
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 6: just have a audio producer, Matt Mitchell throw in when

981
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 6: we got it correct.

982
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 8: When you do this for real, don't ever say that.

983
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:09,239
Speaker 4: Yeah.

984
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:12,320
Speaker 2: The one thing I will say about the Navy defense,

985
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:14,320
Speaker 2: which why I have more confidence than this under and

986
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:19,239
Speaker 2: I've upgraded them, is their defense was an absolute train

987
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 2: wreck for their first seven games, and we saw that byugame.

988
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 2: They got fifty five the first game of the year.

989
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 2: We didn't know how good BA was going to be

990
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 2: number one, but they didn't practice tackling right. And then

991
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:34,759
Speaker 2: the next week it was they kind of woke up

992
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 2: in the second half, but then they got blown up

993
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 2: by Air Force. There was issues going on this Navy defense.

994
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 2: They played SMU on October thirty first on Halloween, they

995
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:47,719
Speaker 2: got fifty one points. Then they had a month long

996
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 2: break because they all they had three straight cancelations. So

997
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 2: over that month long break, I was curious to see,

998
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 2: did the maybe this offense can figure something out.

999
00:49:58,000 --> 00:49:58,359
Speaker 4: It didn't.

1000
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:04,360
Speaker 2: They were horrend against Memphis and they did absolutely nothing

1001
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 2: against Tulsa last week. But the defense seemingly did figure

1002
00:50:10,080 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 2: some things out, and it's a unit that had that

1003
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:17,719
Speaker 2: was really good last year and brought some talent back

1004
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:21,279
Speaker 2: lay by linebacker Dico Figo. So over the last two

1005
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:23,840
Speaker 2: weeks they held Memphis to ten points in Tulsa at nineteen.

1006
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:27,799
Speaker 2: So I trust that the defense is at least going

1007
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 2: in a positive direction after the last two results. The

1008
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:34,680
Speaker 2: offense is still a disaster. I don't know what they

1009
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 2: didn't figure a thing out over that month break, So

1010
00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:39,279
Speaker 2: I'm rolling with the under.

1011
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 6: I agree with you there because you and I looked

1012
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:42,839
Speaker 6: at that box score two weeks ago and we didn't

1013
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:45,359
Speaker 6: know how that Memphis game ended ten to seven. But yeah,

1014
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:47,719
Speaker 6: something's happened with the defense because we've had two weeks

1015
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 6: in a row now of extremely low scoring games. So

1016
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 6: definitely something to take in. Take in here, maybe we

1017
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 6: don't rely on the stats that have the go all

1018
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:58,279
Speaker 6: the way back to Labor Day, you know, maybe things

1019
00:50:58,320 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 6: have changed with that huge layoff.

1020
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:03,960
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1037
00:51:57,400 --> 00:52:00,920
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to our final mark game of

1038
00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 2: the weekend, and let's talk some Pac twelve at ben

1039
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 2: MGM This Kids at seven thirty Eastern on ABC. By

1040
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:11,399
Speaker 2: the way, USC is a two and a half point

1041
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 2: favorite at UCLA over under sixty two. I took some

1042
00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:18,959
Speaker 2: USC minus three. I know it's a death wish taking

1043
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 2: Clay Elton on the road. I can get a better

1044
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 2: number now, but I make this closer to six. Ucla

1045
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:29,640
Speaker 2: is three and two. Some of their defensive metrics look okay,

1046
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:35,720
Speaker 2: but I think that they've benefited from an extremely, extremely

1047
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:39,800
Speaker 2: beneficial schedule. I mean, they start off the year against Colorado.

1048
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 2: They lost forty eight to forty two. So it's like

1049
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,480
Speaker 2: and they give a five hundred and thirty yards to Colorado.

1050
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 2: Color's office isn't lightened the world on fire. Since then,

1051
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:50,440
Speaker 2: they played Cal who was on I mean that game

1052
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 2: was on a Sunday, just scheduled randomly, and Cal has

1053
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 2: been dealing with COVID issues. And then they lost thirty

1054
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 2: eight thirty five to Oregon. They had their backup quarterback,

1055
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:03,879
Speaker 2: but we see that Oregon is not who many people

1056
00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:06,319
Speaker 2: thought they were. Oreon went to six point six yards

1057
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 2: per play. They beat Arizona twenty seven to ten. Arizona

1058
00:53:10,239 --> 00:53:11,920
Speaker 2: did nothing but their quarterback got on the first play

1059
00:53:11,920 --> 00:53:14,759
Speaker 2: of the game. And then last week they beat Arizona State.

1060
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 2: In Arizona State, by the way, that more yards higher yards,

1061
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 2: well play over six point two yards we played. They've

1062
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:24,279
Speaker 2: had some fluky results to UCLA and USC hasn't been great,

1063
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 2: but I trust their offense and the one UCLI has

1064
00:53:27,960 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 2: been really been relying on getting pressure. The whole air raid,

1065
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 2: I mean slow is getting rid of the ball so quick,

1066
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 2: and I just trusted more than dtr And people have

1067
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 2: been talking about this UCLA secondary is being an improved unit,

1068
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:44,880
Speaker 2: and obviously it's going to be key here against USC

1069
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:47,480
Speaker 2: and their air raid with Slovas and their great receivers.

1070
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:51,359
Speaker 2: But look at who UCLA has played, look at who

1071
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,560
Speaker 2: they were last year. This is one of the worst

1072
00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 2: pass defenses in the nation. And now everyone is saying, oh,

1073
00:53:57,280 --> 00:53:59,800
Speaker 2: Paul Rhods is out Arizona, all its guys, as coaching

1074
00:53:59,880 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 2: is paying off, their technique is better.

1075
00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 4: All this stuff.

1076
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 2: Why there was a shortened Like none of these back

1077
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:13,080
Speaker 2: twelve teams got working in the off season. But it's

1078
00:54:13,120 --> 00:54:15,319
Speaker 2: not like they were getting tons of reps. Why would

1079
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:17,359
Speaker 2: this UCLA secondary all of a sudden be really good.

1080
00:54:17,880 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 4: I'm not buying it.

1081
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:25,480
Speaker 2: I'm selling UCLA here. I trust USC's offense more. USC's

1082
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:30,440
Speaker 2: defense hasn't been great, but I think I can get

1083
00:54:30,560 --> 00:54:33,360
Speaker 2: enough stops here and I make this basically, I just

1084
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 2: make this closer to six and so give me the

1085
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:38,839
Speaker 2: Trojans here.

1086
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:41,440
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I agree with you. Wrote it up

1087
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 6: for Action Network. It'll be published on Friday morning, probably

1088
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 6: as you're listening to this. You know this, listen, we

1089
00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:50,239
Speaker 6: could just take all the reverse line movement and just

1090
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 6: chuck it and throw it in the trash, because that's

1091
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 6: exactly what's going on here with you know, the ticket count,

1092
00:54:56,160 --> 00:54:59,400
Speaker 6: the handle everything coming in on USC. Yet we've had

1093
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:01,319
Speaker 6: a dip down to two and a half. I think

1094
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:04,399
Speaker 6: that numbers should be higher, and you know, let's let's

1095
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 6: break it down on how these teams are gonna score.

1096
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:08,480
Speaker 6: Dorian Thompson Robinson Ucla. They've had a ton of success

1097
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:10,440
Speaker 6: on the ground, and they've been at a pace of

1098
00:55:10,520 --> 00:55:13,400
Speaker 6: twentieth and seconds per play, and there's you know, they

1099
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 6: should have plenty of scoring opportunities in this game. There's

1100
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:18,560
Speaker 6: been a massive push for UCLA in this game. But

1101
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,640
Speaker 6: I think there's a couple of factors in there. It's

1102
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:24,239
Speaker 6: you know, USC just had a game on Sunday night,

1103
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:25,440
Speaker 6: so they're going to be on a little bit of

1104
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 6: short rest. People are starting to you know, fall for

1105
00:55:28,719 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 6: this Ucla offense against the schedule that they've had. Like

1106
00:55:31,120 --> 00:55:34,400
Speaker 6: you mentioned, you know, I can see what's going on

1107
00:55:34,520 --> 00:55:37,279
Speaker 6: in the market. The market dictates that UCLA should be

1108
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:40,520
Speaker 6: the play. But the market is not been right on

1109
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,319
Speaker 6: this USC team the last couple of years, especially when

1110
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:44,759
Speaker 6: the air raid starts to click.

1111
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:45,799
Speaker 4: This happened last year.

1112
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:48,839
Speaker 6: USC looked terrible in a couple of games to start

1113
00:55:48,880 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 6: the season because the air raid offense is not something

1114
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:54,200
Speaker 6: you come out firing on all cylinders. It just doesn't

1115
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:57,640
Speaker 6: happen overnight. I guess unless you're Mike Leach in Missippi State,

1116
00:55:57,719 --> 00:55:59,080
Speaker 6: then it falls apart for the rest of the season.

1117
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 6: But I mean, Mike lee just talked before that he

1118
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:04,400
Speaker 6: doesn't want his teams to have by weeks. He doesn't

1119
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:06,800
Speaker 6: want a break in the schedule. He wants his quarterback

1120
00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:08,960
Speaker 6: and his wide receivers to stay in rhythm. And to

1121
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 6: do that you got to keep on playing games. So

1122
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 6: after struggling against the State of Arizona, USC is finally,

1123
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 6: you know, putting up a ton of passing yards now

1124
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:21,279
Speaker 6: and Slovas is hitting everybody all over the field, and

1125
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:24,399
Speaker 6: I think it's you know, it's important to point out that, yes,

1126
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 6: they were granted a ton of great field position against

1127
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:30,680
Speaker 6: Washington State, but they still converted five touchdowns and scored

1128
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:33,000
Speaker 6: a ton. And in this spot last year, I mean,

1129
00:56:33,040 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 6: all the hype is on UCLA and Dorian Thompson Robinson

1130
00:56:35,520 --> 00:56:37,800
Speaker 6: and this defense is going to shut down USC and

1131
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:40,480
Speaker 6: USC areas and click in and then can Don Slovas

1132
00:56:40,520 --> 00:56:43,399
Speaker 6: came out and through five hundred yards five hundred yards

1133
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:46,359
Speaker 6: against these same bruins. So I'm not buying it either,

1134
00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 6: you know, like I said, I make the number higher.

1135
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:51,040
Speaker 6: I think the number is just too short to be

1136
00:56:51,080 --> 00:56:53,400
Speaker 6: betting on Ucla. I'm not going to be a slave

1137
00:56:53,520 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 6: to the whole rolm and be scared of it. I

1138
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:57,880
Speaker 6: think USC is the play, and I can see right

1139
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:00,040
Speaker 6: now as you know we're talking that I think I

1140
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:02,279
Speaker 6: think eventually this will close at three, maybe three and

1141
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:04,480
Speaker 6: a half. So if you're listening to this on Friday morning,

1142
00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:05,880
Speaker 6: I'm not sure that two and a half is going

1143
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:06,759
Speaker 6: to stick around very long.

1144
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:11,480
Speaker 2: I concur all right, let's move on to the best

1145
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:15,239
Speaker 2: of the rest. Let's go back to the ACC here

1146
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 2: and talk a little. Virginia Virginia Tech. They'll meet on

1147
00:57:20,720 --> 00:57:26,480
Speaker 2: Saturday night in Blacksburg for the Commonwealth KELP and Virginia

1148
00:57:26,680 --> 00:57:32,280
Speaker 2: Tech had fifteen straight wins over Virginia until last year

1149
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:36,240
Speaker 2: when Virginia finally ended that drought. I think this is

1150
00:57:36,320 --> 00:57:40,840
Speaker 2: actually a spectacular Bilow spot on Virginia Tech. And I

1151
00:57:41,080 --> 00:57:44,560
Speaker 2: saw last week that they cared against Clemson. They played

1152
00:57:44,600 --> 00:57:47,000
Speaker 2: them even for three quarters. They had all their quarterbacks

1153
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 2: get hurt. But apparently Burmeister is okay, and then Hooker

1154
00:57:49,680 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 2: is okay. It's gonna be forty five degrees, not thirty,

1155
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:55,240
Speaker 2: so he's not gonna be too cold. Apparently that's all

1156
00:57:55,280 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 2: it was, which is important.

1157
00:57:58,680 --> 00:57:59,360
Speaker 4: So Virginia.

1158
00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:01,800
Speaker 2: Look, they start it off the year they're five and four,

1159
00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:04,120
Speaker 2: but they started out the year of the win over

1160
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:06,040
Speaker 2: Duke at their Duke lost both at starting corners, and

1161
00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:09,200
Speaker 2: Duke's been dreadful. Then they lost four straight. They now

1162
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:11,919
Speaker 2: won four straight, but let's throughout the Abilene Christian wins.

1163
00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:15,120
Speaker 2: So they've won three straight. In the ACC. They beat

1164
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:18,200
Speaker 2: North Carolina. They gave up eight point eight yards per play,

1165
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:20,680
Speaker 2: they had five and a half. They played Louisville, had

1166
00:58:20,720 --> 00:58:22,920
Speaker 2: their whole team out with COVID, including their two best

1167
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:24,480
Speaker 2: offensive players and a bunch of defenders.

1168
00:58:25,000 --> 00:58:25,840
Speaker 4: They beat Louisville.

1169
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 2: They go eight yards per play averaged five point seven.

1170
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:31,880
Speaker 2: Last week they played BC, BC had its started quarterback

1171
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:34,280
Speaker 2: out and they both averaged eight yards per play and

1172
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 2: they gave up a school record for BC passing yards

1173
00:58:37,800 --> 00:58:40,160
Speaker 2: of their backup five hundred and twenty yards tied Doug

1174
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:43,800
Speaker 2: Fluties record. So these three wins have been pretty fluky.

1175
00:58:43,800 --> 00:58:47,000
Speaker 2: They've benefited from some injuries, and they have injuries themselves.

1176
00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 2: I mean, they lost Charles Ston, their best defensive player

1177
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:52,880
Speaker 2: two games ago. He's their was their sack leader, their

1178
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:57,080
Speaker 2: team captain, their vocal leader. And last week against BC,

1179
00:58:57,200 --> 00:59:00,160
Speaker 2: they were without both starting linebackers, five defensive line been

1180
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 2: in a starting safety. The defense is really bagged up.

1181
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:05,520
Speaker 2: The defense has just been dreadful all year. And Virginia

1182
00:59:05,560 --> 00:59:07,360
Speaker 2: Tech on the other side, people just are jumping off

1183
00:59:07,400 --> 00:59:09,840
Speaker 2: fIF team because they're now four and six in the year.

1184
00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:13,120
Speaker 2: They've lost four in a row, completely opposite of Virginia,

1185
00:59:13,640 --> 00:59:17,160
Speaker 2: but two of those losses. The first two losses came

1186
00:59:17,200 --> 00:59:20,920
Speaker 2: against Liberty in Miami. They were by a combined four points.

1187
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:24,440
Speaker 2: They could have won both of those games two ranked teams.

1188
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:29,080
Speaker 2: Then they laid a nagget pit and I said, maybe

1189
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 2: this team's quit. But last week they didn't look like shit.

1190
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:34,840
Speaker 2: I think I'm just rhyming shit now. So that showed

1191
00:59:34,840 --> 00:59:36,640
Speaker 2: me that they still cared. And this is an in

1192
00:59:36,760 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 2: state rival they lost to last year. I think they

1193
00:59:39,360 --> 00:59:40,000
Speaker 2: show up here.

1194
00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 4: I think the.

1195
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:46,480
Speaker 2: Votech rushing attack is the most reliable unit in this game.

1196
00:59:46,520 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 2: Brendan Armstrong has been good on the offense side. This

1197
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:53,560
Speaker 2: Virginia defense has been so bad, so bad. Both defense

1198
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:56,360
Speaker 2: has been really bad. But I trust the votech rushing

1199
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 2: attack to get it done here, assuming that Hooker is

1200
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:02,640
Speaker 2: not too cold, give me the Hokies under a field

1201
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:05,760
Speaker 2: goal here at Lane Stadium by the way in Blacksburg.

1202
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:08,880
Speaker 6: And thoughts crazy for us to watch that game. I

1203
01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:12,000
Speaker 6: thought he was having convulsions. I thought he was I

1204
01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:14,880
Speaker 6: don't know. I didn't think it was hypothermia. I didn't

1205
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:17,280
Speaker 6: think he was too cold. I literally thought he was

1206
01:00:17,360 --> 01:00:21,160
Speaker 6: having a seizuret And now next day on Sunday, he's fine.

1207
01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:22,320
Speaker 4: He was just cold.

1208
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:25,600
Speaker 6: I mean, do we not have enough in the budget

1209
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:30,000
Speaker 6: for the Hokies, Like, couldn't Clemson have supplied some heaters

1210
01:00:30,320 --> 01:00:32,480
Speaker 6: on the sideline. It was just amazing to me that

1211
01:00:32,960 --> 01:00:35,360
Speaker 6: the answer was that he was just cold, because I

1212
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:39,080
Speaker 6: literally thought he could have some sort of like career

1213
01:00:39,280 --> 01:00:42,360
Speaker 6: ending seizure that would probably I mean, whatever, whatever, So

1214
01:00:42,400 --> 01:00:44,240
Speaker 6: Hennon Hooker is going to play, and if it's not

1215
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 6: too cold, then that helps that boost the Virginia Tech offense,

1216
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:50,360
Speaker 6: especially against a Virginia defense that ranks one hundred and

1217
01:00:50,400 --> 01:00:54,200
Speaker 6: thirteen and defending pass explosiveness that's not very good. They're

1218
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:57,600
Speaker 6: one hundred and fifteenth in past coverage. That's not very good. Now,

1219
01:00:57,800 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 6: what's kept me off from playing ridge Jinia Tech this week?

1220
01:01:01,200 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 6: You know, I saw it at one and a half

1221
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:04,960
Speaker 6: and I thought, you know, this is a great Bilo

1222
01:01:05,120 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 6: spot on this team. But what kept me off early

1223
01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:10,600
Speaker 6: in the week was Bronco Mendenhall coming out and essentially

1224
01:01:10,720 --> 01:01:14,680
Speaker 6: telling everybody we're not going to a bowl. And the

1225
01:01:14,760 --> 01:01:16,680
Speaker 6: ACC told us we need to schedule a game for

1226
01:01:16,760 --> 01:01:20,280
Speaker 6: December nineteenth, and I said, no, this is it. This

1227
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:23,200
Speaker 6: is their last game. Virginia has said the season has

1228
01:01:23,280 --> 01:01:26,320
Speaker 6: been long enough. We all the players got here in June,

1229
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:29,040
Speaker 6: they all missed their families. We don't want to go

1230
01:01:29,080 --> 01:01:31,560
Speaker 6: to a bowl that extends practices. We do not want

1231
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:34,320
Speaker 6: to schedule a December nineteenth game, and playing Virginia Tech

1232
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:37,240
Speaker 6: is the perfect ending to this particular season.

1233
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:41,360
Speaker 4: So how does that play into the handicap? I would

1234
01:01:41,560 --> 01:01:42,880
Speaker 4: like to lay it with Virginia Tech.

1235
01:01:43,720 --> 01:01:45,120
Speaker 6: I do think we're going to get a best effort

1236
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:47,440
Speaker 6: out of Virginia even though you know they're missing like

1237
01:01:47,600 --> 01:01:51,000
Speaker 6: one of their best defensive players, and Charles Snowden he's

1238
01:01:51,040 --> 01:01:52,920
Speaker 6: out for the year. BC, you know, put up like

1239
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:55,600
Speaker 6: five hundred yards against him. I expect there to be

1240
01:01:55,880 --> 01:01:58,840
Speaker 6: a ton of offense in this game. Virginia Tech's got

1241
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:02,800
Speaker 6: a bust, explosive player ast Virginia. Virginia Tech's finishing drives

1242
01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:05,480
Speaker 6: is one hundred and eighth in the nation. They let

1243
01:02:05,600 --> 01:02:09,320
Speaker 6: everybody score. They let everybody score touchdowns, not field goals.

1244
01:02:09,800 --> 01:02:12,200
Speaker 6: So for me, I'm going to play the over in

1245
01:02:12,320 --> 01:02:15,840
Speaker 6: this game. Virginia should be hell of fired up, considering

1246
01:02:15,880 --> 01:02:18,840
Speaker 6: it's their last game, considering last year is the first

1247
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:23,080
Speaker 6: time they won in fifteen years. Big rival, and you know,

1248
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:26,040
Speaker 6: I agree this is a BILO spot. I think Virginia

1249
01:02:26,040 --> 01:02:27,840
Speaker 6: Tech wins the game. But more importantly, I think there's

1250
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:28,600
Speaker 6: a ton of points here.

1251
01:02:29,160 --> 01:02:31,560
Speaker 2: Don't hate that call. BC made a similar call, by

1252
01:02:31,560 --> 01:02:33,680
Speaker 2: the way, and they're not going to a bowl. You

1253
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:35,440
Speaker 2: might see a lot of teams do that. Keep your

1254
01:02:35,520 --> 01:02:38,640
Speaker 2: eye on that over the next week or two, because essentially,

1255
01:02:38,680 --> 01:02:41,160
Speaker 2: these bowl games are just like another road game. It's

1256
01:02:41,200 --> 01:02:43,480
Speaker 2: not like a big spectacle and you're going to travel

1257
01:02:43,560 --> 01:02:45,880
Speaker 2: and get to do a bunch of stuff. And so

1258
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:47,320
Speaker 2: some teams are going to be like, look, these kids

1259
01:02:47,360 --> 01:02:49,440
Speaker 2: can't go see their families of the holidays, so we're

1260
01:02:49,480 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 2: not going to a bowl.

1261
01:02:50,640 --> 01:02:51,959
Speaker 4: Maybe we get accurate in a bowl.

1262
01:02:52,280 --> 01:02:54,480
Speaker 2: Uh, that's that should be the bowl.

1263
01:02:54,720 --> 01:02:56,720
Speaker 6: There's only a certain number of programs. I mean, think

1264
01:02:56,760 --> 01:02:58,240
Speaker 6: about this. I don't know what's going to get scheduled

1265
01:02:58,240 --> 01:02:59,840
Speaker 6: next week. There's gonna be a lot of shit scheduled

1266
01:02:59,880 --> 01:03:02,920
Speaker 6: on fly. But you're keeping these kids on the campus

1267
01:03:03,560 --> 01:03:06,200
Speaker 6: through Christmas if they're playing in a bowl game past

1268
01:03:06,240 --> 01:03:08,600
Speaker 6: the twenty fifth and you're not allowing them to see

1269
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:11,000
Speaker 6: their family. I completely agree with some of these programs

1270
01:03:11,040 --> 01:03:12,840
Speaker 6: that are like, listen, we're checking out now. If you're

1271
01:03:12,840 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 6: a team like Arkansas where you're in a first year

1272
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:18,360
Speaker 6: you know, first year head coach, and you're a program

1273
01:03:18,480 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 6: on the rise and you're building up, you're going to

1274
01:03:20,560 --> 01:03:23,000
Speaker 6: stay and bust your ass to go to that Gator

1275
01:03:23,040 --> 01:03:24,600
Speaker 6: Bowl or go to that Texas Bowl. You're gonna do

1276
01:03:24,640 --> 01:03:27,120
Speaker 6: what you gotta do. But some of these programs that

1277
01:03:27,640 --> 01:03:30,640
Speaker 6: you know, have not had a successful season versus where

1278
01:03:30,680 --> 01:03:33,280
Speaker 6: they thought they should be. I completely agree with them

1279
01:03:33,320 --> 01:03:35,160
Speaker 6: making a call, like we're not scheduling any more games

1280
01:03:35,200 --> 01:03:36,280
Speaker 6: and we're not going to go to a bowl game.

1281
01:03:36,320 --> 01:03:42,320
Speaker 4: It's just not worth it. Yep.

1282
01:03:43,160 --> 01:03:45,200
Speaker 2: By the way, I hope that college I mean you're

1283
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:47,040
Speaker 2: seeing someone else as a college basketball I think Duke

1284
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:48,200
Speaker 2: just announced that they suck.

1285
01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:51,560
Speaker 4: I mean that they are not playing any non conference games.

1286
01:03:52,120 --> 01:03:53,040
Speaker 4: So hopefully college.

1287
01:03:52,800 --> 01:03:55,280
Speaker 2: Basketball continue because college basketball podcasts are coming soon.

1288
01:03:55,400 --> 01:03:57,520
Speaker 4: People. More details to come shortly.

1289
01:03:58,280 --> 01:04:00,760
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to game. I'll let you

1290
01:04:00,840 --> 01:04:04,440
Speaker 2: talk about this game because my stance is clear.

1291
01:04:05,600 --> 01:04:06,280
Speaker 4: We're going to the Mac.

1292
01:04:06,280 --> 01:04:07,760
Speaker 2: We got to talk some macchin.

1293
01:04:21,720 --> 01:04:25,120
Speaker 4: Western Michigan at ball State at bet MGM.

1294
01:04:25,200 --> 01:04:27,040
Speaker 2: Ball State's two and a half point favorite over under

1295
01:04:27,520 --> 01:04:29,800
Speaker 2: under sixty nine and a half minus one twenty. The

1296
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:33,000
Speaker 2: game's at Newon Eastern on ESPN. Both teams are four

1297
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:37,240
Speaker 2: and one right now in the MAC. Buffalo is four

1298
01:04:37,240 --> 01:04:38,560
Speaker 2: to own the MAC East and they have a win

1299
01:04:38,600 --> 01:04:40,880
Speaker 2: over Ken State is three and one in the Macwest.

1300
01:04:41,280 --> 01:04:44,280
Speaker 2: Western Michigan of ball State are four and one. Winner

1301
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:48,280
Speaker 2: of this game is going to play Buffalo in the

1302
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:51,520
Speaker 2: MAC Championship Game. If you go back to my Mac manifesto,

1303
01:04:52,240 --> 01:04:54,960
Speaker 2: I hyped up ball State. That was my future nine

1304
01:04:55,000 --> 01:04:59,160
Speaker 2: to one. I pretty much am higher on ball State

1305
01:04:59,240 --> 01:05:01,920
Speaker 2: than everyone in the mark. I love them. I love

1306
01:05:01,960 --> 01:05:03,960
Speaker 2: that the way their defense has looked lately. I love

1307
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:07,760
Speaker 2: their offense, so it's not hard for me here. I

1308
01:05:07,880 --> 01:05:10,320
Speaker 2: make ball State way high or fair than anyone else.

1309
01:05:10,400 --> 01:05:13,360
Speaker 2: I'm on them under a field goal. Any quick thoughts.

1310
01:05:13,160 --> 01:05:16,160
Speaker 6: There, Yeah, I mean ball State's eighty fourth and pass coverage,

1311
01:05:16,200 --> 01:05:17,400
Speaker 6: so they got to be you know, they got to

1312
01:05:17,440 --> 01:05:18,960
Speaker 6: have their best effort here when they go up against

1313
01:05:18,960 --> 01:05:20,880
Speaker 6: Western Michigan, when they get into passing downs.

1314
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:23,400
Speaker 4: Western Michigan is a team that usually runs the ball.

1315
01:05:23,760 --> 01:05:25,800
Speaker 6: I do like the under here for the simple fact

1316
01:05:25,840 --> 01:05:29,400
Speaker 6: that ball State is fifty eight percent run ratio. They've

1317
01:05:29,440 --> 01:05:31,800
Speaker 6: had lots of success on the ground against Eastern Michigan

1318
01:05:32,120 --> 01:05:35,800
Speaker 6: or then Illinois, and Western Michigan is predominantly a run

1319
01:05:35,880 --> 01:05:38,440
Speaker 6: first team. And we have some heavy weather here with

1320
01:05:38,560 --> 01:05:40,680
Speaker 6: a total that I've always a touchdown too high and

1321
01:05:40,720 --> 01:05:45,080
Speaker 6: projected at sixty three, and so you know, if we

1322
01:05:45,200 --> 01:05:47,080
Speaker 6: had to play it here, you know, I would probably

1323
01:05:47,080 --> 01:05:48,720
Speaker 6: have a no play on the side and take a

1324
01:05:48,760 --> 01:05:49,320
Speaker 6: look at the under.

1325
01:05:49,360 --> 01:05:51,120
Speaker 4: But I wouldn't. I wouldn't take the under past sixty

1326
01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:51,760
Speaker 4: seven and a half.

1327
01:05:52,200 --> 01:05:55,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, major weather to consider there with heavy wins, the

1328
01:05:55,480 --> 01:05:56,840
Speaker 2: last game that we'll touch up before we go to.

1329
01:05:56,880 --> 01:05:57,360
Speaker 4: Three and out.

1330
01:05:58,200 --> 01:06:00,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, this can's just be on Friday night. Got moved

1331
01:06:00,640 --> 01:06:03,800
Speaker 2: to Saturday at noon because Ohio State Michigan got canceled

1332
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:06,960
Speaker 2: And that's one in two. Utah two point underdogs at

1333
01:06:06,960 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 2: bet MGM at four, and oh Colorado over under forty

1334
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 2: seven half. Colorado has been one of the most surprising

1335
01:06:12,600 --> 01:06:14,160
Speaker 2: teams in the country.

1336
01:06:15,040 --> 01:06:15,920
Speaker 4: I like the uts here.

1337
01:06:16,040 --> 01:06:19,520
Speaker 2: I think Colorado has been all smoking mirrors. Last week, yes,

1338
01:06:19,600 --> 01:06:20,720
Speaker 2: they beat Arizona.

1339
01:06:21,880 --> 01:06:22,760
Speaker 4: What was that last week?

1340
01:06:23,040 --> 01:06:26,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, last week they beat Arizona. Whoop do you do?

1341
01:06:26,400 --> 01:06:30,959
Speaker 2: They beat Arizona and their backup quarterback. The week before

1342
01:06:31,000 --> 01:06:34,920
Speaker 2: that they beat your beloved San Diego States offense and

1343
01:06:35,080 --> 01:06:37,440
Speaker 2: their third string quarterback.

1344
01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:38,080
Speaker 4: Whoop do you do?

1345
01:06:39,000 --> 01:06:41,120
Speaker 2: And then you go back to Stanford game. They won

1346
01:06:41,240 --> 01:06:45,560
Speaker 2: thirty five thirty two against Stanford. They got four hundred

1347
01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:47,480
Speaker 2: yards to Stanford. And then the first game of the year.

1348
01:06:47,480 --> 01:06:51,280
Speaker 2: They beat UCLA forty eight to forty two. Both teams

1349
01:06:51,360 --> 01:06:53,320
Speaker 2: at five hundred yards usually had seven and a half

1350
01:06:53,440 --> 01:06:56,440
Speaker 2: yards per play. I mean, I just think this Colorado

1351
01:06:56,560 --> 01:06:59,240
Speaker 2: team has gotten fluchy results. On the other side, Utah's

1352
01:06:59,240 --> 01:07:01,800
Speaker 2: one and two. But before the year, it was a

1353
01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:04,000
Speaker 2: team I wanted to sell early. They lost to USC

1354
01:07:04,160 --> 01:07:08,840
Speaker 2: to start the year, then they lost by three at Washington,

1355
01:07:09,280 --> 01:07:12,760
Speaker 2: and then they won by six last week against Oregon State.

1356
01:07:13,320 --> 01:07:15,640
Speaker 2: But it was a team early in the year, new quarterback,

1357
01:07:16,120 --> 01:07:17,920
Speaker 2: new running back to replace a quarterback and running back

1358
01:07:17,920 --> 01:07:19,400
Speaker 2: to went to. With the NFL thest ten of the

1359
01:07:19,680 --> 01:07:22,640
Speaker 2: top twelve defenders, eight of which are on NFL rosters.

1360
01:07:23,320 --> 01:07:24,840
Speaker 2: It was going to be some ground page for a

1361
01:07:24,880 --> 01:07:28,640
Speaker 2: team that got started late in this unprecedented season, but

1362
01:07:29,360 --> 01:07:31,920
Speaker 2: very well coached team. I've liked what I seen from

1363
01:07:31,920 --> 01:07:34,720
Speaker 2: the defense so far despite all that turnover. I like

1364
01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:36,720
Speaker 2: some of the things that I saw from Bentley last week.

1365
01:07:36,800 --> 01:07:39,040
Speaker 2: I think it's a good spot to buy Utah low.

1366
01:07:39,640 --> 01:07:43,480
Speaker 2: I make Utah a favorite here. I think of a

1367
01:07:43,560 --> 01:07:47,040
Speaker 2: field goal, so I glad they took the points. Thoughts, Yeah,

1368
01:07:47,080 --> 01:07:49,160
Speaker 2: I agree, Utah is the play here.

1369
01:07:49,200 --> 01:07:51,000
Speaker 6: I think a lot of people will be shocked at

1370
01:07:51,040 --> 01:07:53,720
Speaker 6: the fact that Colorado's the undefeated team and Utah is

1371
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:54,640
Speaker 6: the one that's favored.

1372
01:07:54,680 --> 01:07:57,960
Speaker 4: Here waiting for the media on my TV to tell

1373
01:07:57,960 --> 01:07:58,920
Speaker 4: me that this is an upset.

1374
01:07:58,920 --> 01:08:01,080
Speaker 6: When Utah wins, I think you have to look into

1375
01:08:01,080 --> 01:08:03,720
Speaker 6: the Utah box scores and realize that there's a ton

1376
01:08:03,800 --> 01:08:06,000
Speaker 6: of postgame win expectancy that.

1377
01:08:06,120 --> 01:08:07,280
Speaker 4: Was in the Utes favor.

1378
01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:10,720
Speaker 6: They actually, you know, had some covers and against Oregon

1379
01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:12,919
Speaker 6: State there was some points late that you know, there's

1380
01:08:12,960 --> 01:08:15,400
Speaker 6: some scrambling points late that that was actually such a

1381
01:08:15,520 --> 01:08:19,080
Speaker 6: large gap between Oregon State and Utah throughout most of

1382
01:08:19,160 --> 01:08:21,600
Speaker 6: the game. And I mentioned the Colorado's top five and

1383
01:08:21,680 --> 01:08:25,040
Speaker 6: defensive success rate, but look at their schedule, my newly

1384
01:08:25,120 --> 01:08:28,200
Speaker 6: beloved San Diego State offense, the Arizona offense, and so

1385
01:08:28,240 --> 01:08:28,639
Speaker 6: it's a bit.

1386
01:08:28,640 --> 01:08:29,920
Speaker 4: Misleading what they've been able to do.

1387
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:34,519
Speaker 6: And they were gifted four turnovers against UCLA, so you know,

1388
01:08:35,040 --> 01:08:37,360
Speaker 6: it really hasn't been as impressive once you get to

1389
01:08:37,680 --> 01:08:39,720
Speaker 6: take a deep dive into what the Buffalos have done.

1390
01:08:40,120 --> 01:08:43,360
Speaker 6: I love Sam Noyer quarterback. I think he's becoming a

1391
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:45,800
Speaker 6: bit overvalued. He does have a lot of design runs

1392
01:08:45,840 --> 01:08:47,679
Speaker 6: and that's been a big part of the Colorado offense.

1393
01:08:47,720 --> 01:08:49,599
Speaker 6: But that's just not going to get it done against Utah,

1394
01:08:50,120 --> 01:08:52,920
Speaker 6: who is fifth in the nation and defending rush exposiveness

1395
01:08:52,960 --> 01:08:55,960
Speaker 6: and twenty sixth and in defensive rushing success rate. So

1396
01:08:56,600 --> 01:08:58,840
Speaker 6: I think there's going to be an issue with Colorado

1397
01:08:58,960 --> 01:09:01,200
Speaker 6: doing their ground game with they do with noier, whether

1398
01:09:01,280 --> 01:09:03,040
Speaker 6: it's designed runs, scrambles.

1399
01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:05,360
Speaker 4: I think Utah is gonna shut all that down.

1400
01:09:05,680 --> 01:09:08,479
Speaker 2: I like the utes here completely agree. Also, keep in

1401
01:09:08,600 --> 01:09:12,719
Speaker 2: mind every year, but there's one or two exceptions scenes

1402
01:09:12,760 --> 01:09:16,600
Speaker 2: that Utah has elite special teams, and that appears to

1403
01:09:16,720 --> 01:09:20,920
Speaker 2: be the case again this year. Kobe their returner. He's

1404
01:09:21,000 --> 01:09:23,320
Speaker 2: just he's explosive, and their special teams look really good

1405
01:09:23,360 --> 01:09:26,040
Speaker 2: this year, and Colorado has some gaps in their special teams,

1406
01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:28,519
Speaker 2: so that could end up being the difference as well.

1407
01:09:28,840 --> 01:09:30,800
Speaker 2: All right, before we get out of here, let's go

1408
01:09:31,880 --> 01:09:32,519
Speaker 2: three and out.

1409
01:09:34,920 --> 01:09:37,000
Speaker 4: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1410
01:09:38,640 --> 01:09:42,080
Speaker 2: All right, let's start with some Friday night lights.

1411
01:09:43,120 --> 01:09:45,960
Speaker 4: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1412
01:09:46,320 --> 01:09:47,120
Speaker 3: Hey, let's go.

1413
01:09:47,200 --> 01:09:50,800
Speaker 4: Play some football. All right, let's start with a game.

1414
01:09:51,000 --> 01:09:54,680
Speaker 4: I will not be betting UTEP as a nine and

1415
01:09:54,760 --> 01:09:55,360
Speaker 4: a half.

1416
01:09:55,880 --> 01:09:57,200
Speaker 2: Minus nine and a half minus one to twenty, the

1417
01:09:57,320 --> 01:09:59,920
Speaker 2: basically ten point favorite at home against North Texas.

1418
01:10:00,600 --> 01:10:04,720
Speaker 1: We're talking minor Nation out in the west, ticks in

1419
01:10:04,960 --> 01:10:06,320
Speaker 1: town of the past.

1420
01:10:06,120 --> 01:10:10,880
Speaker 4: So picks up at Sex Eastern. I don't even think this.

1421
01:10:11,160 --> 01:10:13,479
Speaker 4: This game is on TV pass for me.

1422
01:10:13,560 --> 01:10:15,599
Speaker 2: I make this line right at ten that the thoughts

1423
01:10:15,640 --> 01:10:17,800
Speaker 2: here on the mean green and minor Nation, maybe by

1424
01:10:17,800 --> 01:10:18,320
Speaker 2: our nation.

1425
01:10:18,200 --> 01:10:19,200
Speaker 4: Will finally call back.

1426
01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:19,840
Speaker 2: What's going on.

1427
01:10:20,720 --> 01:10:23,240
Speaker 4: I can't beat the parties. I can't believe you're not

1428
01:10:23,280 --> 01:10:25,280
Speaker 4: betting this game. I was going to do a deep dive.

1429
01:10:25,280 --> 01:10:27,880
Speaker 4: I hate North Texas after way no, no, I know.

1430
01:10:28,040 --> 01:10:29,320
Speaker 4: I tweeted this out early this week.

1431
01:10:29,360 --> 01:10:31,040
Speaker 6: I said, listen, you and I had a whole discussion

1432
01:10:31,080 --> 01:10:32,880
Speaker 6: about how North Texas is unbettable.

1433
01:10:33,120 --> 01:10:36,559
Speaker 4: They're unbetable. We can't put our money behind these guys.

1434
01:10:37,000 --> 01:10:39,599
Speaker 6: And then I go and I read UTEP's you know presser,

1435
01:10:39,760 --> 01:10:42,360
Speaker 6: the Dana demo presser, and he's like, well, we've.

1436
01:10:42,280 --> 01:10:44,280
Speaker 4: Had this name, this name, this name, this name, this

1437
01:10:44,400 --> 01:10:46,800
Speaker 4: name that all these opt outs. Go and check it out.

1438
01:10:47,240 --> 01:10:49,760
Speaker 6: It's their top four guys in the secondary, all their

1439
01:10:49,800 --> 01:10:52,880
Speaker 6: safeties and corners have opted out, like three four days ago.

1440
01:10:53,240 --> 01:10:55,600
Speaker 6: So you know the total right now? You know, bet

1441
01:10:55,800 --> 01:10:59,240
Speaker 6: MGM sixty three and a half. Can utept do their

1442
01:10:59,360 --> 01:11:02,240
Speaker 6: part to contribute to the over here? All I know

1443
01:11:02,400 --> 01:11:04,800
Speaker 6: is North Texas gonna be able to throw all day.

1444
01:11:04,840 --> 01:11:06,559
Speaker 6: I don't know if you're just gonna pull random people

1445
01:11:06,600 --> 01:11:09,240
Speaker 6: off the sidewalk and the apasso and line them up

1446
01:11:09,280 --> 01:11:11,920
Speaker 6: as secondary I don't know who's left when you have

1447
01:11:12,280 --> 01:11:13,800
Speaker 6: all four of you, if you get our friend, our

1448
01:11:13,840 --> 01:11:15,280
Speaker 6: pizza party friend to get in there.

1449
01:11:17,000 --> 01:11:22,280
Speaker 3: This is Jason Minor mother f and Nason just covered

1450
01:11:22,400 --> 01:11:26,439
Speaker 3: yet another spread. I heard Colin on the podcast going, ooh,

1451
01:11:26,760 --> 01:11:30,160
Speaker 3: you only covered by one point. Actually, hold on, here's

1452
01:11:30,240 --> 01:11:33,200
Speaker 3: my bucky right now. Hey, what's up man? Oh, you're

1453
01:11:33,280 --> 01:11:36,240
Speaker 3: not gonna pay me more this week because they cover

1454
01:11:36,400 --> 01:11:39,240
Speaker 3: by twenty three instead of one. Oh my god, you're

1455
01:11:39,280 --> 01:11:41,760
Speaker 3: gonna pay me the same amount. Oh all right, I

1456
01:11:41,800 --> 01:11:43,840
Speaker 3: guess that's cool. Man, all right, I gotta get back.

1457
01:11:43,880 --> 01:11:47,000
Speaker 3: I'm on the phone call. Wow, that's crazy anyway. I

1458
01:11:47,160 --> 01:11:50,880
Speaker 3: hope you guys eat a bag of the size of

1459
01:11:51,000 --> 01:11:53,840
Speaker 3: the distance from Lexington to l Pass.

1460
01:11:53,880 --> 01:11:58,000
Speaker 4: Oh baby boom, Hey, suit him up and let's get

1461
01:11:58,080 --> 01:11:58,400
Speaker 4: him going.

1462
01:11:58,439 --> 01:11:59,840
Speaker 6: So I mean, I think the wise bet here is

1463
01:12:00,040 --> 01:12:02,719
Speaker 6: taking North Texas team total over. I'm not sure UTEP

1464
01:12:02,760 --> 01:12:06,160
Speaker 6: can contribute to the getting over the current total right now,

1465
01:12:06,960 --> 01:12:08,960
Speaker 6: but just keep that in mind. I'm definitely not laying

1466
01:12:08,960 --> 01:12:13,160
Speaker 6: any UTEP money here considering the opt outs that are

1467
01:12:13,200 --> 01:12:16,360
Speaker 6: going on right now. Their pace on offense is extremely slow,

1468
01:12:16,640 --> 01:12:20,880
Speaker 6: They're finishing drives, has been terrible all season, and really

1469
01:12:21,760 --> 01:12:24,160
Speaker 6: I hate betting North Texas, but man, you have this

1470
01:12:24,280 --> 01:12:27,200
Speaker 6: many opt outs, the only play is a North Texas

1471
01:12:27,240 --> 01:12:29,360
Speaker 6: team total over or taking a game total over.

1472
01:12:30,600 --> 01:12:33,840
Speaker 4: I don't think I could bring myself to bet that game. Well.

1473
01:12:33,960 --> 01:12:38,920
Speaker 2: Sevent Eastern ESPN to Arizona State at oh and four Arizona.

1474
01:12:39,640 --> 01:12:41,800
Speaker 2: Arizona State's an eleven and a half point favorite. I

1475
01:12:41,880 --> 01:12:45,360
Speaker 2: bet MGM over under fifty six and a half makes

1476
01:12:45,400 --> 01:12:46,200
Speaker 2: sense of this mess.

1477
01:12:46,560 --> 01:12:48,880
Speaker 6: I think it's going to be a blowout by Arizona State.

1478
01:12:48,960 --> 01:12:50,960
Speaker 6: One of these teams cares, one of these teams does.

1479
01:12:51,280 --> 01:12:53,280
Speaker 6: One of these teams will have a head coach returning

1480
01:12:53,320 --> 01:12:58,040
Speaker 6: next year. One of these teams won't. Arizona was spotted

1481
01:12:58,840 --> 01:13:02,600
Speaker 6: thirteen points last week, week, spotted thirteen points after that,

1482
01:13:02,880 --> 01:13:07,519
Speaker 6: didn't score again, And you know they are terrible, and

1483
01:13:07,880 --> 01:13:11,040
Speaker 6: so many different metrics on offense and in defense. The

1484
01:13:11,080 --> 01:13:13,280
Speaker 6: only thing that they're really good at. They're sixteenth and

1485
01:13:13,320 --> 01:13:15,640
Speaker 6: seconds per play. They're fast, at least they get off

1486
01:13:15,680 --> 01:13:17,920
Speaker 6: the field fast, but they're one hundred and thirteenth on

1487
01:13:18,000 --> 01:13:21,600
Speaker 6: offense and finishing drives. Things are just terrible. From a

1488
01:13:21,680 --> 01:13:24,120
Speaker 6: defensive standpoint. They're one hundred and twenty seventh in sac rate.

1489
01:13:24,439 --> 01:13:26,880
Speaker 6: There's only one hundred and twenty seven teams playing, So

1490
01:13:27,160 --> 01:13:29,320
Speaker 6: that tells you what Arizona is able to do as

1491
01:13:29,360 --> 01:13:35,080
Speaker 6: far as you know, getting pressure there against Jad and Daniels.

1492
01:13:35,080 --> 01:13:37,360
Speaker 6: So I like Arizona State here to cover that in

1493
01:13:37,439 --> 01:13:38,080
Speaker 6: that fat spread.

1494
01:13:38,520 --> 01:13:41,120
Speaker 2: And the last game on Friday night as a game

1495
01:13:41,200 --> 01:13:43,600
Speaker 2: I will be on Nevada. I've run a two to

1496
01:13:43,600 --> 01:13:46,880
Speaker 2: two and a half point underdog over under fifty nine

1497
01:13:47,800 --> 01:13:51,960
Speaker 2: at San Jose, No, not at Santase State. This game's

1498
01:13:52,560 --> 01:13:56,439
Speaker 2: at where UNLV plays, I believe, and Nevada is six

1499
01:13:56,520 --> 01:13:58,920
Speaker 2: and one, Santaday State's five and oh quiet as five

1500
01:13:58,960 --> 01:14:03,960
Speaker 2: and oho team nick darkle in the country. I make

1501
01:14:04,040 --> 01:14:07,719
Speaker 2: Nevada one point favorite here. Remember this is this game's

1502
01:14:07,760 --> 01:14:11,600
Speaker 2: big played in their home state, So I glad they

1503
01:14:11,600 --> 01:14:13,320
Speaker 2: took three. Oh as soon as I saw three. I

1504
01:14:13,360 --> 01:14:17,720
Speaker 2: make a one point favorite, Romeo Dubbs, that's my guy. No,

1505
01:14:18,920 --> 01:14:21,120
Speaker 2: I make a team a one point favorite. I see

1506
01:14:21,160 --> 01:14:24,160
Speaker 2: plus three. Don't really have to put much more thought into.

1507
01:14:24,080 --> 01:14:26,679
Speaker 4: It than that. Uh So I'm riding with my wolf

1508
01:14:26,760 --> 01:14:27,120
Speaker 4: back here.

1509
01:14:28,479 --> 01:14:31,280
Speaker 2: After their win last week over Fresno, Santase State, for

1510
01:14:31,360 --> 01:14:35,840
Speaker 2: what it's worth, was on the island last week, and

1511
01:14:35,880 --> 01:14:38,320
Speaker 2: now they're traveling here. Everything's been up in the air.

1512
01:14:38,320 --> 01:14:40,519
Speaker 2: They're not allowed to play where they play. Now they're

1513
01:14:40,520 --> 01:14:43,479
Speaker 2: going to Nevada. But again, I make Nevada slight favorite.

1514
01:14:43,960 --> 01:14:45,559
Speaker 2: Give me the pack. Do you agree or disagree?

1515
01:14:46,040 --> 01:14:49,559
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm saying take Reno here. I think that number

1516
01:14:49,600 --> 01:14:51,519
Speaker 6: is going to disappear. I make the game a pick,

1517
01:14:51,560 --> 01:14:53,720
Speaker 6: and I expected the number to keep floating that way

1518
01:14:53,800 --> 01:14:56,400
Speaker 6: until we get there tomorrow night. And the big thing

1519
01:14:56,479 --> 01:14:58,479
Speaker 6: is Carson Strong going up against the San Jose State

1520
01:14:58,600 --> 01:15:02,160
Speaker 6: defense that is outside the up one and defending pass explosiveness.

1521
01:15:02,240 --> 01:15:04,720
Speaker 6: And you know, the San Jose State they had a

1522
01:15:04,840 --> 01:15:07,120
Speaker 6: pretty soft schedule. They I think the first three or

1523
01:15:07,160 --> 01:15:09,479
Speaker 6: four teams they beat had a hard time finding a win.

1524
01:15:09,600 --> 01:15:12,840
Speaker 6: New Mexico just got to win finally last week. And

1525
01:15:13,360 --> 01:15:15,560
Speaker 6: you know, Nevada throws sixty percent of the time, and

1526
01:15:15,680 --> 01:15:17,320
Speaker 6: that's going to be a problem for San Jose State,

1527
01:15:17,360 --> 01:15:19,519
Speaker 6: who's really excelled on the defensive side of the ball

1528
01:15:20,680 --> 01:15:23,960
Speaker 6: and defending the rush. The pass is a different story.

1529
01:15:24,080 --> 01:15:26,519
Speaker 6: So uh, you know, San Jose State's going to get

1530
01:15:26,520 --> 01:15:29,400
Speaker 6: their licks in. But I do like Nevada much better here.

1531
01:15:29,479 --> 01:15:32,200
Speaker 6: They'll be on that thirty nine dollars southwest flight from

1532
01:15:32,240 --> 01:15:33,240
Speaker 6: Reno down to Vegas.

1533
01:15:33,800 --> 01:15:35,400
Speaker 4: But yeah, definitely taking the wolf Pack.

1534
01:15:35,560 --> 01:15:38,360
Speaker 2: All right, second down, let's get the prices right. Music

1535
01:15:38,439 --> 01:15:45,880
Speaker 2: in here, and let's start. We're going to talk about

1536
01:15:45,880 --> 01:15:50,880
Speaker 2: our favorite overdogs. Let's start in the Mac Buffalo thirty

1537
01:15:50,880 --> 01:15:52,720
Speaker 2: two and a half point favorite at bet MGM at

1538
01:15:52,760 --> 01:15:53,759
Speaker 2: home over Akron.

1539
01:15:54,120 --> 01:15:56,920
Speaker 4: Buffalo is a snail. Akron is a snail.

1540
01:15:57,600 --> 01:16:00,479
Speaker 2: But does Achron get any stops Zachar when the Super

1541
01:16:00,479 --> 01:16:02,080
Speaker 2: Bowl last year? Price is the price right?

1542
01:16:02,600 --> 01:16:04,639
Speaker 6: I make it thirty and a half, So we're gonna

1543
01:16:04,640 --> 01:16:07,040
Speaker 6: say the price is wrong. We're not gonna buy a buffalo.

1544
01:16:07,960 --> 01:16:12,000
Speaker 6: Te On Dollard, MVP of the podcast, rolling over Bowling

1545
01:16:12,080 --> 01:16:14,960
Speaker 6: Green Knacker and get it up and just cover the

1546
01:16:15,120 --> 01:16:16,920
Speaker 6: thirty two and a half. I think the number is

1547
01:16:16,920 --> 01:16:18,880
Speaker 6: a little high and why does Buffalo give a shit

1548
01:16:18,880 --> 01:16:19,519
Speaker 6: about this game?

1549
01:16:20,200 --> 01:16:22,800
Speaker 4: I don't know, so price is wrong here.

1550
01:16:23,560 --> 01:16:26,799
Speaker 2: Next up TCU twenty one and a half point favorite

1551
01:16:26,800 --> 01:16:30,040
Speaker 2: at bet MGM at home against Louisiana Tech. TSU is

1552
01:16:30,080 --> 01:16:32,760
Speaker 2: coming off of a big win Louisiana Tech. They're playing

1553
01:16:32,800 --> 01:16:35,080
Speaker 2: in Texas again. They added this game. I don't care

1554
01:16:35,960 --> 01:16:37,320
Speaker 2: by the way, I'm gonna let you get on this,

1555
01:16:37,400 --> 01:16:39,320
Speaker 2: but I make this twenty eight, I said, if he

1556
01:16:39,400 --> 01:16:40,880
Speaker 2: makes it fourteen, I think you make it twenty one.

1557
01:16:41,000 --> 01:16:43,000
Speaker 2: I'm the lowest person in the world in Louisiana Tech.

1558
01:16:43,400 --> 01:16:45,280
Speaker 2: All their wins are fraud and I don't see how

1559
01:16:45,320 --> 01:16:48,360
Speaker 2: they score in this game unless TSU just doesn't show up.

1560
01:16:48,960 --> 01:16:51,519
Speaker 2: I think the price is right to lay with TCU.

1561
01:16:52,360 --> 01:16:53,840
Speaker 2: Try to find a twenty one, which you should be

1562
01:16:53,840 --> 01:16:55,880
Speaker 2: able to do. Is the price right here for you?

1563
01:16:56,439 --> 01:16:58,320
Speaker 6: It's I like it at twenty one. I don't like

1564
01:16:58,400 --> 01:16:59,880
Speaker 6: it at twenty one and a half. But I don't

1565
01:17:00,000 --> 01:17:02,280
Speaker 6: want to fade TCU when they get on these hot streaks.

1566
01:17:02,560 --> 01:17:04,760
Speaker 6: But Max Dugan is doing all kinds of things and

1567
01:17:05,000 --> 01:17:07,920
Speaker 6: the defense is actually showing up. TCU has had moments

1568
01:17:08,000 --> 01:17:10,400
Speaker 6: of just like they just don't show up to these games,

1569
01:17:10,439 --> 01:17:12,559
Speaker 6: but when they do, they're on fire. And I think

1570
01:17:12,640 --> 01:17:14,600
Speaker 6: LA Tech traveling a second week in a row and

1571
01:17:15,000 --> 01:17:17,120
Speaker 6: pretty horrible in some of the advanced metrics.

1572
01:17:17,160 --> 01:17:18,960
Speaker 4: I would lay on the twenty one here.

1573
01:17:19,120 --> 01:17:21,840
Speaker 2: Price is right. Yeah, I know Louisiana Tech, they love

1574
01:17:21,920 --> 01:17:23,920
Speaker 2: that Texas recruiting. I had a lot of success there.

1575
01:17:23,960 --> 01:17:26,479
Speaker 2: But if as long as pece Use cares, LA Tech

1576
01:17:26,479 --> 01:17:29,559
Speaker 2: shouldn't score. And the last one here we already mentioned them.

1577
01:17:29,560 --> 01:17:32,360
Speaker 2: We have to talk Hawaii. Hawhi is a twenty one

1578
01:17:32,400 --> 01:17:35,760
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite at home over winless and

1579
01:17:35,920 --> 01:17:40,439
Speaker 2: coverless at pathetic unl A is the price right?

1580
01:17:41,280 --> 01:17:44,000
Speaker 4: Has U and LV won a game? Nope? Has un

1581
01:17:44,120 --> 01:17:45,880
Speaker 4: LV covered a game? Nope?

1582
01:17:46,080 --> 01:17:47,800
Speaker 6: And the price is right. It doesn't matter what the

1583
01:17:47,880 --> 01:17:51,040
Speaker 6: price is. The price is right for Chevron Cordero to do.

1584
01:17:51,320 --> 01:17:52,640
Speaker 6: If he wants to go through the air, we'll go

1585
01:17:52,680 --> 01:17:53,920
Speaker 6: through there. If he wants to go on the ground,

1586
01:17:53,920 --> 01:17:55,719
Speaker 6: we'll go on the ground. The price is right on Hawaii.

1587
01:17:56,240 --> 01:17:59,280
Speaker 2: All right, great stuff there. Before we get out of here,

1588
01:17:59,439 --> 01:18:04,240
Speaker 2: one last order of business, and that's our favorite money line.

1589
01:18:04,160 --> 01:18:12,519
Speaker 1: Underdogs turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1590
01:18:12,680 --> 01:18:14,200
Speaker 1: the money line parlay.

1591
01:18:15,479 --> 01:18:21,200
Speaker 2: I'll start that's bad. But we're going back to mister

1592
01:18:21,800 --> 01:18:22,639
Speaker 2: Mike Leach.

1593
01:18:23,479 --> 01:18:26,439
Speaker 9: You know, I hope there's bigfoot. I don't think there is.

1594
01:18:26,600 --> 01:18:29,040
Speaker 9: The reason I don't think there is because we've found

1595
01:18:29,120 --> 01:18:31,800
Speaker 9: bones of dinosaurs and everything else, but we haven't found

1596
01:18:32,200 --> 01:18:34,520
Speaker 9: bones that I've heard of of Bigfoot.

1597
01:18:34,840 --> 01:18:40,759
Speaker 2: And Mississippi State, they're at home against Auburn. Mississippi State's

1598
01:18:40,800 --> 01:18:42,920
Speaker 2: coming off of bye and if you look, Will Rogers,

1599
01:18:42,960 --> 01:18:45,680
Speaker 2: who I've been calling for, has been on fire. They

1600
01:18:45,720 --> 01:18:48,080
Speaker 2: could have won that game against Ole Miss by the way.

1601
01:18:48,080 --> 01:18:50,600
Speaker 2: They had five hundred yards and Will Rogers threw for

1602
01:18:50,760 --> 01:18:54,799
Speaker 2: four forty three touchdowns no pick. The week before against Georgia,

1603
01:18:55,240 --> 01:18:57,639
Speaker 2: a really good defense, he threw for three thirty six

1604
01:18:57,720 --> 01:19:01,120
Speaker 2: a touchdown, no picks. Offensive starting to get on a roll.

1605
01:19:01,720 --> 01:19:04,680
Speaker 2: They've had a buye. Meanwhile, Auburn, we know about their

1606
01:19:04,720 --> 01:19:10,280
Speaker 2: defensive issues, their past success rate defense horrible. Mississippi States

1607
01:19:10,400 --> 01:19:13,280
Speaker 2: have tons of success moving it up and down the field,

1608
01:19:13,520 --> 01:19:16,599
Speaker 2: and this is a screams flat spot for Auburn. Auburn

1609
01:19:17,240 --> 01:19:20,320
Speaker 2: just coming off games against Bama and Texas A and M.

1610
01:19:20,400 --> 01:19:23,280
Speaker 2: Now they go to Mississippi State to close out the year.

1611
01:19:23,680 --> 01:19:25,760
Speaker 2: This could be the end of the GUS era. If

1612
01:19:25,800 --> 01:19:27,599
Speaker 2: you look back at what Auburn has done this year,

1613
01:19:28,280 --> 01:19:31,760
Speaker 2: who have they beat by more than one possession outside

1614
01:19:31,880 --> 01:19:33,800
Speaker 2: they've had flu Kentucky went early in the year, and

1615
01:19:33,880 --> 01:19:36,760
Speaker 2: they had that one good performance against LSU, who we've

1616
01:19:36,760 --> 01:19:39,759
Speaker 2: known has been a fluke, and then they they shouldn't

1617
01:19:39,760 --> 01:19:42,639
Speaker 2: have even come close to anyboy double digits against Tennessee.

1618
01:19:42,760 --> 01:19:45,679
Speaker 2: But we won't get into that. But Auburn's defense is terrible.

1619
01:19:45,840 --> 01:19:48,240
Speaker 2: This is a great spot to get Mississippi State just

1620
01:19:48,680 --> 01:19:50,240
Speaker 2: one of the best situational spots the weekend.

1621
01:19:50,439 --> 01:19:51,120
Speaker 4: Rolling with Leech.

1622
01:19:51,800 --> 01:19:53,560
Speaker 8: It's not whether you win or lose. It's like the

1623
01:19:53,640 --> 01:19:55,840
Speaker 8: team that wins is the one that has the most fun.

1624
01:19:56,160 --> 01:19:58,160
Speaker 8: You know that crap like that, You know all this

1625
01:19:58,280 --> 01:20:01,559
Speaker 8: stuff that's contaminated to America where they give every kid

1626
01:20:01,640 --> 01:20:04,000
Speaker 8: a trophy and they don't keep scoring Little League anymore.

1627
01:20:04,240 --> 01:20:06,519
Speaker 6: Yeah, I agree there where you go hundred percent agree there.

1628
01:20:06,720 --> 01:20:09,000
Speaker 6: Auburn's not gonna get any pressure. There's seventy seventh in

1629
01:20:09,080 --> 01:20:11,160
Speaker 6: sack right, and they're one hundred and fourteenth in defensive

1630
01:20:11,200 --> 01:20:12,200
Speaker 6: passing success rate.

1631
01:20:12,280 --> 01:20:13,120
Speaker 4: I completely agree.

1632
01:20:13,120 --> 01:20:15,400
Speaker 6: I'll be on it with you in Mississippi State couldn't

1633
01:20:15,479 --> 01:20:18,800
Speaker 6: go and torture the Coastal Carolina fans. I'm not going

1634
01:20:18,880 --> 01:20:20,800
Speaker 6: to take Troy as an outright, but I am going

1635
01:20:20,880 --> 01:20:22,000
Speaker 6: to take a double digit doll.

1636
01:20:21,920 --> 01:20:22,720
Speaker 4: I thought about it too.

1637
01:20:24,320 --> 01:20:27,280
Speaker 6: I'm going to take New Mexico. Now, a fifth string

1638
01:20:27,439 --> 01:20:30,479
Speaker 6: quarterback won his first game. I'm not going to quote

1639
01:20:30,479 --> 01:20:33,519
Speaker 6: off any advanced numbers around New Mexico because they're terrible.

1640
01:20:33,880 --> 01:20:36,880
Speaker 6: They're horrible. But at this point in the season where

1641
01:20:36,920 --> 01:20:40,439
Speaker 6: we're at in December, with you know, a new head

1642
01:20:40,520 --> 01:20:43,639
Speaker 6: coach and Rocky Long as your DC, and you're still

1643
01:20:43,720 --> 01:20:45,360
Speaker 6: doing your best to try to win these games. A

1644
01:20:45,439 --> 01:20:48,880
Speaker 6: seventeen sixteen win over Wyoming, a competent Mountain West team,

1645
01:20:49,600 --> 01:20:53,280
Speaker 6: New Mexico is maybe trying to find their peak with

1646
01:20:53,400 --> 01:20:54,320
Speaker 6: a fifth string quarterback.

1647
01:20:54,360 --> 01:20:55,080
Speaker 4: They won that game.

1648
01:20:55,800 --> 01:20:58,160
Speaker 6: I'm going to write it here. They have a great

1649
01:20:58,200 --> 01:21:01,360
Speaker 6: head coach, they have a great defensive coordinator. They're gonna

1650
01:21:01,360 --> 01:21:03,559
Speaker 6: get figured out if they don't win this game, which

1651
01:21:03,600 --> 01:21:05,960
Speaker 6: I think they absolutely will win this game against Fresno.

1652
01:21:06,040 --> 01:21:08,679
Speaker 4: Fresno self imploded.

1653
01:21:08,160 --> 01:21:10,760
Speaker 6: Last week and this has been a hell of a

1654
01:21:10,840 --> 01:21:13,639
Speaker 6: long season for a team that wasn't even allowed another

1655
01:21:13,680 --> 01:21:16,439
Speaker 6: workout facility until two weeks before the season. Now we're

1656
01:21:16,439 --> 01:21:19,760
Speaker 6: talking about being displaced because of COVID nineteen, not able

1657
01:21:19,800 --> 01:21:22,880
Speaker 6: to have practices in the state of California. Fresno wants

1658
01:21:22,920 --> 01:21:25,120
Speaker 6: this season to be over with, and I think New

1659
01:21:25,200 --> 01:21:27,680
Speaker 6: Mexico will happily oblige them. I love the twelve, but

1660
01:21:27,840 --> 01:21:29,600
Speaker 6: I'm gonna roll some money line here on the on

1661
01:21:29,640 --> 01:21:30,200
Speaker 6: the Lobos.

1662
01:21:30,520 --> 01:21:33,599
Speaker 2: All right, there you have it. You won't have well,

1663
01:21:33,640 --> 01:21:35,479
Speaker 2: we might still have Triple C nation coming at us.

1664
01:21:35,520 --> 01:21:37,479
Speaker 4: On the voicemails. Don't forget o the voicemills this weekend.

1665
01:21:38,160 --> 01:21:39,599
Speaker 4: Thank you as always for listening.

1666
01:21:39,880 --> 01:21:43,400
Speaker 2: Make sure you just take a minute to review, leave

1667
01:21:43,439 --> 01:21:47,960
Speaker 2: a review, five star review, and on the podcast I'll

1668
01:21:48,000 --> 01:21:49,360
Speaker 2: do some more giveaways next week.

1669
01:21:50,000 --> 01:21:51,360
Speaker 4: Appreciate your support. As always.

1670
01:21:51,400 --> 01:21:53,320
Speaker 2: It's a last full Saturday. We still have a lot

1671
01:21:53,360 --> 01:21:55,880
Speaker 2: of winners to pick with next weekend. Championship begin in

1672
01:21:55,920 --> 01:21:59,559
Speaker 2: the bowld season, but let's end it the regulars, last

1673
01:21:59,600 --> 01:22:03,160
Speaker 2: regulars season full Saturday with a bang. Time for us

1674
01:22:03,200 --> 01:22:06,679
Speaker 2: to go do some last minute work and we'll catch

1675
01:22:06,800 --> 01:22:08,679
Speaker 2: all on the recap on Monday.

1676
01:22:09,360 --> 01:22:22,639
Speaker 4: Cheers. He's out. We're finished talking