WEBVTT - A new world order is emerging. Can it tackle climate change? 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:03.760 Welcome to zero. I'm Akshadrati this week what the new 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:19.360 world order looks like. We are living in a fragmenting world. 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:23.200 It's a cliche, but it's true. It took two decades 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:26.360 to get to the Paris Agreement, and then global cooperation 0:00:27.040 --> 0:00:30.640 really lasted only one decade. As of this year, it 0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:34.000 looks like most major emitateurs are dialing down their ambition. 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:37.120 Sure it's only the US that has pulled out of 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:40.440 the Global Pact, but both China and India, the two 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:44.479 largest carbon polluters, have signaled caution about their own efforts 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:48.120 to cut emissions over the next decade, even as I 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:51.200 should note the need for climate action has only become 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:54.000 more urgent, and of course climate is in the only 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:58.160 victim of a fragmenting world. Wars are hurting people, and 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:02.000 trade wars are hurting economies. One key reason for this 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:06.520 fragmentation is the US under President Donald Trump, who has 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:09.800 been taking an axe to the so called rules based 0:01:09.880 --> 0:01:13.880 international order that the US had championed for eighty years. 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:18.360 So it's left many people thinking about what comes next. 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:21.720 One of the most interesting analyzes I've read on this 0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:25.679 topic comes from Gordon la Forge, a senior policy analyst 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:28.880 at the think tank New America. He wrote a piece 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:31.880 for bloomber Weekend with the headline the new World Order 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:36.559 will be more cooperative and more dangerous. The danger part 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:40.199 I am keenly aware of, but the cooperation part took 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:44.039 me by surprise. As a global challenge, theory tells us 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:47.440 we need a global solution for climate change, but Gordon 0:01:47.560 --> 0:01:51.240 argues that perhaps we don't need all countries to act simultaneously. 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:55.480 So how exactly will such a world work? That's the 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:58.480 main question I had for him, But as you'll hear, 0:01:58.560 --> 0:02:03.120 it's a much wider ranging converse and surprisingly hopeful. If 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:05.600 you have feedback, questions or guests suggestions for the show, 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:08.560 please get in touch at zero Pod at bloomberg dot net. 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:17.560 Now here's my conversation with Gordon Loveforge. Welcome to the show, Gordon, 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:20.919 Thank you very nice to be here. Now let's start 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:25.440 with this phrase, the rules based international order. It is 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:29.560 something that we hear politicians throw around kind of all 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:32.240 the time when they're talking about the world these days, 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:35.960 but they don't really define it. So before we find 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:40.080 out how exactly it's being destroyed, tell us what does 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:42.640 it mean and how has it benefited the world. 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:45.840 So I think it goes back to at the end 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:50.920 of World War Two, the United States and the Western 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:56.720 democracies especially set up a system that tried to enshrine 0:02:56.800 --> 0:03:00.800 some values in a set of institutions. These were values 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:07.520 such as territorial integrity, self determination, free trade, human rights, 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:13.040 and these were expressed in a set of multilateral institutions, 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:15.880 and they were backed up by American military power and 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:19.880 economic power. And I think the thing to note is 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:24.320 that always, you know, Mark Carney, in a speech he 0:03:24.400 --> 0:03:27.800 gave n Davos in January, used the phrase pleasant fictions. 0:03:28.040 --> 0:03:31.680 So there was this set of rules, but the United 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:35.200 States neglected them as it saw a fit when it's 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:38.240 when they conflicted with its interests. They were imperfectly applied, 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:43.480 and they didn't always stick to these rules. But nonetheless 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:47.480 there was an expectation in the international system that you 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:52.040 couldn't invade other countries, that you should maintain human rights, 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:56.240 that free trade was good, expanding market access was something 0:03:56.240 --> 0:04:00.160 to be desired, and there were problem solving institutions where 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.040 if there were debates, you could take it to the WTO. 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:09.480 The UN was established to prevent prevent war and to 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:12.880 provide a place where, in a formal way, countries could 0:04:12.880 --> 0:04:16.160 adjudicate their disputes. So there was a set of rules, 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:19.160 even though they were imperfectly applied, as I mentioned. 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:22.560 And so Trump comes in now and he starts hacking 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:26.080 at this rules based order. He raises trade barriers, he 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:29.599 kills heads of states, he threatens to take over entire countries. 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:33.359 But it's not like he's the first world leader to 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:37.960 do so in this post World war period. And as 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:42.560 you say, even the US before Donald Trump has, because 0:04:42.560 --> 0:04:45.920 of its pleasant fictions, avoided these rules when it felt 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:49.400 like So why is it that the order is being 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:53.680 threatened now just because this US president is doing all 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:54.520 these things? 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:56.840 I think the way to think about what Trump is 0:04:56.880 --> 0:05:00.480 doing is that he is signaling the final up. Sure, 0:05:00.960 --> 0:05:03.120 he's putting the nail on the coffin of the order. 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:07.159 It had already been in decline for at least two decades. 0:05:07.480 --> 0:05:12.440 I think the Iraq War, the global financial crisis, the pandemic, 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:19.440 all of these demonstrated that the system was ineffective and 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:25.280 fundamentally unfair. Climate change has put massive pressure and exposed 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:30.880 the unfairness of the system. Where you have the countries 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:35.400 who are responsible for global warming, who emitted you know, 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:40.320 throughout history, they're the ones who are now not paying for, 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:44.440 you know, the developing countries to respond to climate change. 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:46.800 The countries that are most vulnerable to the effects of 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:50.080 climate change are the ones who are least responsible for it. 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:54.680 And the system isn't fair. So there's been a recognition 0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:58.360 for a while that the system was unfair, the system 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:01.839 was ineffective, it wasn't provided the cooperation we needed to 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:07.440 on solving these different transnational challenges. Trump came in and 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:09.520 I think he accelerated this, and I think he made 0:06:09.560 --> 0:06:12.320 a lot of people realize that the system had failed 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:17.320 because he kind of explicitly disavowed these premises that America 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:20.360 had upheld, the pleasant fictions. He just threw them out 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:22.880 the window. And now you see the United States acting 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:30.840 in a completely irresponsible, aggressive way, starting wars, trashing allies. 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:35.480 What I observe is that he doesn't seem to agree 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:39.400 with the view that this system advanced US interests and 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:44.880 supported US power, and he's now acting just like a someone. 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:47.320 We are calling the US a rogue state in the system, 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:50.320 which isn't an unfair characterization right. 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:53.360 Now, and the unfairness of this system. I mean, you 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:55.320 raised the climate point, which we've talked about on the 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:58.279 show a few times, but maybe let me give you 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:00.960 a concrete example from a very sprint field. So this 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:04.359 is something I learned from my wife's PhD thesis. She 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:08.119 did her PhD in international taxation, and she was working 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:12.520 on trying to figure out how do multinational companies get 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:15.400 taxed and how can they be fairly taxed by developing 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:18.880 countries where they are now finding most of their customers. 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:23.120 You know, your Coca Cola customers are really in developing 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:26.560 countries now rather than in developed countries. And what she 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:30.200 found as she was doing the research is that a 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:32.840 this is something she knew I learned, which is there 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:37.200 is no global tax system. It's all bilateral treaties signed 0:07:37.200 --> 0:07:41.400 between countries, and those treaties start from a starting point 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:44.560 that was created by the League of Nations, which was 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:48.760 an organization created by the colonial powers, and the way 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:53.360 the rules were set at that time heavily biased those 0:07:53.440 --> 0:07:57.160 tax revenues going back to developed countries to rich countries 0:07:57.200 --> 0:08:01.200 where most of the corporationsisted then and many of them 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:05.520 have continued to live. But then we had the creation 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:08.760 of tax havens, these island nations that were giving you 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:13.600 zero tax for your corporations to exist, which started to 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:17.600 take away tax revenue from the US and from Europe. 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:19.720 And that's when they woke up and they're like, no, no, no, 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:22.160 the system was supposed to work for us. It's not 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:24.440 working anymore. So we're going to try and come up 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:27.360 with a global tax system, which is what the OECD 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:32.040 tried to do. It's gone nowhere yet fully anyway, But 0:08:32.600 --> 0:08:35.760 this is sort of how deep the unfairness of this 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:40.240 rules based order has been. Something as fundamental as the 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:43.360 tax system that drives countries has been set up on 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:49.240 these unfair rules. So now this system is either being 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:51.600 shown for what it is and is being broken down 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:54.080 by the very country that tried to put it together. 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:58.280 And with it, we will lose some of the advantages 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:00.760 as you laid out, maybe for rich countries, and maybe 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:04.320 we lose some of the disadvantages. But the biggest immediate 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:09.320 problem that comes is there's this risk of maybe the 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:12.959 world just gets thrown into chaos. You argue that actually 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:15.680 there is a new system already emerging. What do you 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:16.800 mean if. 0:09:16.640 --> 0:09:19.600 You look at structurally what's been happening in the world. 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:22.120 You have a lot of countries that have more power 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:25.800 than they did before. When this system was initially set up, 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:29.600 un only had fifty one member states. You know, academics 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:32.679 say they're actually around like seventy to one hundred real 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:35.240 nation states, but now they're more than one hundred and 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:40.120 nine to ninety three nations. Economic power has dispersed to 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:43.480 developing countries in the global South. A lot of middle 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:47.160 powers have risen. I think there's been a big ongoing 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:51.400 shift that is underappreciated from nation states to non state 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:56.439 actors like corporations and goos. They've assumed a lot more 0:09:56.480 --> 0:10:01.120 power in the system. And the system is highly connected 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:04.199 and continues to be so that there has been an 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:08.240 idea that globalization is dead because of the pandemic and 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:12.680 because of all the protectionism that we're seeing, but trade 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:17.400 is increasing year on year. We're very connected through digital networks, 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:20.920 through a movement of peoples, through pretty much every metric 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:24.120 you can think of. So so structurally you have a 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:26.960 world that continues to be very connected. You have more 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:30.800 actors that have more agency and power than ever before. 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:34.240 The withdrawal of the United States from the system and 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:38.400 the end of US hegemony. You could consider that like 0:10:38.480 --> 0:10:42.000 a shock to the supply of international cooperation and the 0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:45.080 provision of public goods in the system. But demand is 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:48.640 still really high. We have more transnational challenges than ever. 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:54.160 I mean, climate is been put on the i think 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:56.560 the back burner of the international agenda right now, but 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:58.800 it's not going to stay on the back burner. It's 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:02.200 going to continue to to express itself in lots of 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:04.400 challenging ways for countries, and countries are going to have 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.680 to come together to solve it. So there are more 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:10.000 actors with more agency, there's more capacity, and there's more 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:13.000 demand to solve all these problems together. So I think 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:15.440 there's a set of issues for which you're still going 0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:17.800 to see a lot of cooperation, and you might even 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:21.720 see more cooperation because there's no longer the expectation that 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:25.360 the United States and this kind of concentrated system in 0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:27.520 these big institutions is going to provide all of it. 0:11:28.280 --> 0:11:33.160 You already see a lot of instances of middle powers 0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:36.520 and non state actors forming and leading coalitions to solve 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:39.880 distinct challenges. I mean what Mia Motley has done with 0:11:40.040 --> 0:11:44.480 the Bridgetown Initiative, bringing together a coalition that includes France 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:47.800 and Kenya and lots of donors and philanthropists that is 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:51.599 trying to reform the international financial architecture in order to 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:54.400 make it more equitable. You'll see I think a lot 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:58.240 of activity like this. It'll be messy, it won't fit 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:03.320 into neat institutions, it'll be fluid. But I think that 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:09.960 will happen alongside the phenomenon you rightly characterized, which is 0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:13.800 that there is a lot of disorder. And I think 0:12:13.880 --> 0:12:17.480 security is one issue where it really does pay to 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:22.840 have a principle in the high school, who keeps bullies 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:26.199 in check, who enforces a set of rules, who has 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.560 the big stick and can check countries if they're trying to, 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:33.720 you know, be aggressive or invade other countries. And the 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:36.480 US was playing that role, and again it didn't play 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:39.000 that perfectly, and it was highly selective in how it 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:44.080 applied that power. But with that gone, I think there 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:47.640 is now a lot of its right to say that 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:50.679 there is a law of the jungle kind of mentality 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.160 that has taken over. When it comes to security. You know, 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:57.400 we're seeing the biggest military build up globally in decades. 0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:01.480 I believe since the beginning of World War two, nuclear 0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:04.160 proliferation is back on the table. You have even Japan 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:07.400 and South Korea or contemplating getting the bomb. So I 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:09.680 think both of these things are going to coexist in 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:11.920 the new world. It's it's the new world order we're 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:14.640 entering into. It's going to be messy, it's going to 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:20.440 be complex, but I see more potential for cooperation alongside 0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:22.160 more peril and danger. 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:26.080 I want to come to all those things in one sequence. 0:13:26.120 --> 0:13:28.800 But let's look at the point that you make, which 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:33.160 is that the world is actually more connected than ever before. 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:35.960 I mean, some of the numbers that you have in 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:39.600 your Peace and Bloom we kind are kind of astonishing that, 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:41.800 you know, the US three is as it's tara from 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:45.440 two percent to ten percent. And yet there's more trade, 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:49.840 international trade that's going to happen in twenty twenty five 0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:52.000 and maybe in twenty twenty six, who knows, But there 0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:54.920 was more foreign direct investment sort of rose fourteen percent 0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:59.400 in twenty twenty five. There's also more interconnection, just in 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:03.360 the fact that we are more connected through our devices, 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:09.600 through the Internet, and information travels so quickly around the world, 0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:13.000 and more people are aware of what's happening on the 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:17.000 other side of the world, which in a we sort 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:20.400 of supported climate action because sort of twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:24.200 the period where we were seeing protests in European countries, 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.240 that was feeding in other parts of the world, and 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:31.320 there was a desire for more climate action. So, in reality, 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.600 it is a more connected world. And yet why does 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:36.560 it feel like it's fragmenting. 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:39.440 Well, it is. It is both more connected, but it 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:45.520 is fragmenting in important ways. There are divergences in political systems, 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:49.000 even digital networks. You know, there was the famous line 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:51.360 that Bill Clinton had in the nineties where he said 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:56.000 China's attempts to cut itself off from the global Internet 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:59.200 and apply a firewall is like trying to nail jello 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:01.760 to a wall. And he turned out to be very 0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:06.640 wrong about that. China has very successfully created its own 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:10.720 Internet and firewalled itself off from the world. So there 0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:17.000 is the reality of hyperconnectivity. There is also the realization 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:21.840 of that by states and very effective ways of weaponizing 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:27.320 interdependence and connectivity. You think of all the different choke 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:33.280 points in digital systems, in the energy system, we're seeing 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:35.640 a very clear example of this right now in the 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:41.280 Strait of Hormuz, where I think countries are trying to 0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:48.080 exploit the interconnections to leverage power and assert themselves. I 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:53.240 mean also ideologically, like, nationalism is still i'd say, the 0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:57.680 most dominant ideology on the planet. It's really remarkable when 0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:01.920 you think in previous eras there were ideological competitors. There was, 0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:06.440 you know, a big competition between communism and capitalism, even 0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:09.200 you know, having a theocracy. You know, should there be 0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:12.080 in the Muslim world, should there be a caliphate, should 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.840 we have a religious system there? Really, I mean, there 0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:20.920 isn't any strong ideological competitor to nationalism nowadays. There is 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:23.960 good reason for fragmentation. There is a lot of fragmentation 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:27.840 in the world. But there is also this fundamental reality 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:31.120 of hyper connectivity, and you see it in the flow 0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:34.160 of goods, in the flow of services. I think, the 0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:37.080 reality of how we consume information. I mean you mentioned that. 0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:42.240 You know, obviously the Internet has enabled data, information content 0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:47.120 to travel around the world, but the design of the 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:50.880 devices that we use, the design of the communications networks 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:55.760 is such that we become isolated in our own filter bubbles, 0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:59.200 and so it doesn't it doesn't feel, you know, like 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:01.480 we're connected. It's kind of a paradox. There are a 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:03.640 lot of paradoxes in the world right now, and one 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:05.640 of them is that we're more connected than ever, yet 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:08.680 we feel more isolated than ever. We feel more alone 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:11.520 and separate than ever, and I think that's primarily because 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.760 of the way we're consuming information and how it's coming 0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:15.080 to us. 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:17.200 And then you reach this point that the middle powers 0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:20.520 didn't come together. I mean, this idea is not a 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:23.640 new idea, but it definitely got a big boost when 0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:26.960 Prime Minister marccarney of Canada talked about it at the 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:31.119 World Economic Forum in January. What he stopped short of, 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:35.760 and something that I hoped we would see more examples of, 0:17:36.320 --> 0:17:39.439 is what does it look like when middle powers come together? 0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:40.840 Give me some examples. 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:44.960 I don't think that there will be a quote unquote 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:49.119 middle power order that is cohesive and coherent in the 0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:54.000 way that you like the NATO security alliances. I think 0:17:54.720 --> 0:18:00.160 middle powers will come together around specific issues and needs 0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:05.480 in fluid, shifting, opportunistic ways. In the essay, I use 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:09.480 the term polyamorous geopolitics, which is a little provocative, but 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:13.879 I think it accurately characterizes kind of the nature of 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:18.199 the relationships between countries. Some examples I mentioned. You know, 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:22.200 the Bridgetown initiative is one where you have Barbados leading. 0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:24.720 You know, Barbados is in a middle power, but it's 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:28.400 a small power who has co opted France and Kenya 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:34.560 in the relationship. Another example from climate which has not 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:40.040 been successful, but the just energy transition partnerships with South 0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:44.679 Africa and Indonesia, which you know is a donors financiers. 0:18:44.720 --> 0:18:47.760 You probably know far more about how this has transpired. 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:51.600 That is the I think the right kind of coalition, 0:18:51.840 --> 0:18:55.240 like a mini lateral coalition of state and non state 0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:58.520 actors to try and provide, you know, a specific lever 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:03.720 to advance the energy transition. In practice, the tools have 0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:07.800 proven to be the wrong ones for advancing that, given 0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:10.920 that it's all in loans and been issues in Indonesia 0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:13.720 with the captive coal plants that are powering the smelters, 0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:16.760 so that hasn't been successful. But I think that is 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:19.560 the kind of you know, when Mark Karney used to 0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:26.000 phrase variable geometry coalitions around specific issues and needs, I 0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:28.680 think in trade we're moving away. You know, the WTO 0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:32.199 has ceased to function and you're moving towards kind of 0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:36.119 a messy array of plurilateral relationships where you're having different 0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:40.120 regional trade agreements. The TPP, even though the United States 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:44.359 withdrew for it, has evolved and merged into something much greater. 0:19:45.080 --> 0:19:48.399 So there's kind of a messy a messy array of 0:19:48.480 --> 0:19:53.439 powers that are involved around specific issues and needs. So 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:57.119 I think it is again it's fluid, it shifts. I 0:19:57.119 --> 0:20:01.120 think you'll see in public health se North Africa has 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:04.360 launched an MR and a hub that involves private actors 0:20:04.400 --> 0:20:07.520 and involves other countries and the goal there being to 0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:12.320 increase manufacturing capacity and development for vaccines if there's another 0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:16.120 public health emergency like COVID. So I think there are opportunities, 0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:17.919 but as I said, I don't think there will be 0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:23.920 a single cohesive coalition of middle powers that emerges. It 0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:26.600 could be wrong, but I think the interests are too diverse. 0:20:26.880 --> 0:20:30.359 And again this is demand driven. Where is their need 0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:34.280 to cooperate on transnational issues or to advance certain interests. 0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:44.520 After the break, more of my conversation with Gordon lave Forge. 0:20:44.720 --> 0:20:47.240 If you're enjoying this episode of Zero, please take a 0:20:47.240 --> 0:20:49.560 moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts. 0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:53.160 YouTube and Spotify. It makes the algorithms happy and helps 0:20:53.200 --> 0:21:08.000 more people find the show. In the climate case, there 0:21:08.080 --> 0:21:11.880 was for a long time this case that given it's 0:21:11.880 --> 0:21:16.120 a global challenge, and given we need to reach zero emissions, 0:21:16.160 --> 0:21:20.520 because that's the only way to halt warming, that all 0:21:20.600 --> 0:21:23.560 countries will have to act, and that meant, you know, 0:21:23.600 --> 0:21:27.120 it took two decades to broker the priors agreement from 0:21:27.359 --> 0:21:30.160 nineteen ninety five for the first COP to COP twenty one, 0:21:30.520 --> 0:21:33.760 and of course we know it's not worked as well 0:21:33.840 --> 0:21:37.320 as it should have worked. Finally you had an agreement. 0:21:37.400 --> 0:21:39.840 Because of the way the agreement came together, there was 0:21:39.880 --> 0:21:43.760 no enforcement mechanism. Countries had to peer pressure each other 0:21:43.800 --> 0:21:47.480 into becoming more ambitious. And now that there are tensions 0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:50.400 in the world, countries like China and India have east 0:21:50.680 --> 0:21:53.399 on their own efforts. They might do more, but they 0:21:53.440 --> 0:21:56.119 don't want to say they're going to do more. But 0:21:56.160 --> 0:21:59.000 then when I talked to experts on how exactly should 0:21:59.080 --> 0:22:02.199 we try and climate change if it is not the 0:22:02.320 --> 0:22:06.360 UN system, many say that maybe there's a different global 0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:08.960 agreement that we have to come to. But if you 0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:10.639 start from scratch, you still have to come to a 0:22:10.680 --> 0:22:13.960 global agreement to act because this requires all countries to 0:22:13.960 --> 0:22:17.320 get to zero emissions. But you think there can be 0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:19.600 other ways in which we can still act on climate. 0:22:19.640 --> 0:22:24.879 How exactly the fundamental assumption of first the Kyoto Protocol 0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:28.720 and then I mean later the Paris Agreement, but the 0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:32.440 Kyoto Protocol and the UNF Triple C it was built 0:22:32.440 --> 0:22:35.920 on the example of the Montreal Protocol, and I think 0:22:35.920 --> 0:22:40.520 it's a case where we took the example or the 0:22:40.560 --> 0:22:44.320 case of a simple linear problem and tried to apply 0:22:44.400 --> 0:22:49.320 it to a very complex, larger problem. So for Montreal, 0:22:49.840 --> 0:22:53.160 it was an agreement to ban the use of CFCs 0:22:53.240 --> 0:22:56.640 to prevent the hole in the ozone layer. You had 0:22:56.680 --> 0:23:02.200 a very specific set of industrial chemical The same companies 0:23:02.240 --> 0:23:07.080 that CFCs also created the replacement for them that didn't 0:23:07.119 --> 0:23:09.040 harm the ozone layer, So there wasn't a lot of 0:23:09.080 --> 0:23:13.480 cost to switching, it turned out, and you could get 0:23:13.480 --> 0:23:16.399 a binding treaty for countries to ban this. It was 0:23:16.440 --> 0:23:20.160 a relatively simple problem. Trying to do the same thing 0:23:20.400 --> 0:23:24.840 with carbon dioxide and methane emissions, it's completely different. Pretty 0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:30.280 much every feature of the modern economy produces these greenhouse 0:23:30.320 --> 0:23:33.679 gas emissions as a byproduct, so you're talking about systemic 0:23:33.760 --> 0:23:37.159 transformations of the food system, of the transportation system, of 0:23:37.200 --> 0:23:40.920 the energy system, of all these very complex, interlacking systems. 0:23:41.560 --> 0:23:45.399 The idea that you could have one single agreement or 0:23:45.440 --> 0:23:48.160 target that all countries would sign up to to try 0:23:48.160 --> 0:23:52.520 and solve that problem, I think was just a misplaced assumption, 0:23:52.640 --> 0:23:55.440 an admirable one, like a good attempt, But I think 0:23:55.480 --> 0:23:57.600 the failure. I think that Paris is kind of an 0:23:57.600 --> 0:24:02.320 acknowledgment that that approach doesn't work for the problem. Paris 0:24:02.320 --> 0:24:04.360 shifted us towards, you know, more of a bottom up 0:24:04.440 --> 0:24:07.840 voluntary reductions regime, and that also, you know, in the 0:24:08.040 --> 0:24:11.760 in the face of domestic pressure and these fundamental questions 0:24:11.800 --> 0:24:14.920 about unfairness. You know, if you are a country who 0:24:14.960 --> 0:24:18.000 is trying to beat poverty and develop, why should you 0:24:18.040 --> 0:24:21.640 reduce your emissions when the United States and Europe got 0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:25.120 rich and profitable and advanced off of burning all these 0:24:25.119 --> 0:24:27.840 emissions in the first place and causing the problem. I 0:24:27.880 --> 0:24:31.639 don't think it necessarily is harmful to have the UNFC 0:24:31.920 --> 0:24:36.960 Triple C and the Paris Agreement, but actual action is 0:24:37.000 --> 0:24:39.919 going to come, I don't know, in a variety of 0:24:40.000 --> 0:24:44.720 very messy ways. Another thing about the new order that 0:24:44.760 --> 0:24:47.880 we're entering into. That I think is interesting is one 0:24:47.920 --> 0:24:52.120 of the main functions of American hegemony was to secure 0:24:52.119 --> 0:24:55.800 her global oil markets and to secure the free transit 0:24:55.840 --> 0:25:00.200 of oil to like support you know, the fossil fuel system. 0:25:00.640 --> 0:25:04.000 We're seeing that with the crisis and the Strait of 0:25:04.040 --> 0:25:09.440 Hormuz that when you take away American leadership over that system, 0:25:09.800 --> 0:25:11.240 you know, you now have a lot of countries in 0:25:11.240 --> 0:25:14.520 Asia that are hastening their adoption of renewables and making 0:25:14.560 --> 0:25:17.560 that more of a priority because you can no longer 0:25:17.600 --> 0:25:20.280 depend on the global oil market to function as it 0:25:20.359 --> 0:25:24.000