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Speaker 1: Wants up. Guys, how are you welcome into a Wednesday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me across all of

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Speaker 1: my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we are trending

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Speaker 1: in the right direction for a good day. On Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: The Red Sox just won and they got the run line.

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Speaker 1: How I have no flip an idea how that's possible.

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Speaker 1: But that's a one unit win for the Red Sox.

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Speaker 1: Toronto is well on its way. They're up by three

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Speaker 1: runs in the eighth against the Reds, so barring a

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Speaker 1: collapse there, it'll be another unit one there. It'll be

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Speaker 1: a two and oho start to the night on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: And then the Yankees are up to nothing in the

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Speaker 1: fourth over the Astros, so we'll need some help there

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Speaker 1: to get over seven and a half. But it looks

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Speaker 1: like a two and one day for us coming up.

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Speaker 1: So a winning day, a two and one day for

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Speaker 1: us on a Tuesday. Now, you guys know, I have

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Speaker 1: surgery coming up on Thursday. I have too many bets

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Speaker 1: to do it in one podcast. I was gonna do

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Speaker 1: one mega podcast. That's ridiculous. It'll be an hour okay,

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Speaker 1: because there's bets on Thursday, there's bets on Friday, there's

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Speaker 1: bets on Saturday, there's bets on Sunday. It's four days.

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Speaker 1: It's a million bets. Can't be done. So I'm breaking

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Speaker 1: into two parts. This is part A Thursday Friday. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Thursday Friday. Then tomorrow we will tape for Thursday morning.

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Speaker 1: That'll be for Saturday and Sunday, all right, So those

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Speaker 1: will be the official plays that will take us to

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Speaker 1: basically when I come back on Monday, Torell Furman is

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Speaker 1: going to have your daily Bets for you for Friday morning,

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Speaker 1: Saturday morning, Sunday morning. So his plays, but they're not

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Speaker 1: counting for the Daily Juice. So I'm gonna give you

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Speaker 1: the Daily Juice plays official plays today Thursday, Friday, and

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Speaker 1: then coming up tomorrow for Saturday and Sunday. Sense we

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Speaker 1: have two NFL games Thursday Friday. We got to get

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Speaker 1: action going on that. It's the NFL. So I've made

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Speaker 1: some bets tonight, got some plays for you guys. Coming

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Speaker 1: up now. We got so much to announce. We have

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Speaker 1: Go check the app out, come back and tell me

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Speaker 1: But it's very neat and we want to hear from

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Speaker 1: well wing you that signed Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins jersey.

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Speaker 1: We might be doing live shows, I don't know, and

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Speaker 1: on location. Daily Juice. I've been talking about that for

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Speaker 1: literally two years that we should do an on location

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Speaker 1: live Daily Juice trip for you guys and me. We go,

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Speaker 1: we hang out, we watch games, we bet games the

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Speaker 1: Daily Juice. Would you guys come to hard Rock to flow?

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Speaker 1: Would you guys be down if we did a live

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Speaker 1: I would tape it live, obviously, but I think it

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Speaker 1: would be fun for all of us to hang out

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play terms and

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Speaker 1: conditions supply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one hundred

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Speaker 1: Admit it. In Indiana, if you or someone you know

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Speaker 1: has a gambling problem and want help, call one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called one hundred

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Speaker 1: gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's get to these plays coming up for today. It

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Speaker 1: is going to be and get comfortable for a second

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Speaker 1: because we gottat to talk about. Okay, let's start with

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Speaker 1: the Eagles and the Cowboys. You guys know how I

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Speaker 1: feel about the Cowboys. They're now seven to one. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I got plus six fifty. It's seven to one at

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Speaker 1: certain books to win the NFC East. Everyone thinks I'm

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Speaker 1: Looney Tunes bonkers. Okay, fine, Are the Eagles gonna lose

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Speaker 1: out of the gate? I don't think so. But eight ooh,

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Speaker 1: I don't know. That's tough. If the Eagles get down,

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Speaker 1: can they come back? I don't know. But if the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys get down, it can get to be a blowout

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Speaker 1: because they're gonna pass even more. And that concerns me

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Speaker 1: so here's what I think. The Cowboys aren't gonna stop

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Speaker 1: anybody this year. Okay, the Eagles I think will win

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Speaker 1: out of the gate. Banner and I a lot of

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Speaker 1: emotion in the building. Everyone's healthy. I think the Eagles

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Speaker 1: are going to have a hard time this year because

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Speaker 1: I think they're going to suffer some pretty big injuries.

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Speaker 1: They were very good last year with their injury luck.

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Speaker 1: Sakuon Barkley, a walking injury for the New York Giants,

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Speaker 1: never got hurt. I will be stunned if Sakuon Barkley

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Speaker 1: does not get hurt this year. Jalen Hurts has avoided

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Speaker 1: really major injuries. For a guy that gets hit as

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Speaker 1: much as he does, He's avoided major injuries, which is

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Speaker 1: somewhat shocking given what his career has looked like. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna have the same type of luck

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Speaker 1: on the offensive line or the defensive line that they

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Speaker 1: have had. But it's Game one, and in Game one,

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Speaker 1: do I think the Eagles lose to the Cowboys out

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Speaker 1: of the gate? I don't. The Micah Parsons thing also

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Speaker 1: makes it a little bit problematic because I think the

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Speaker 1: defense might need some time. I like Matt Eberflus a

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Speaker 1: lot as the decoordinator. I think he's going to cause

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Speaker 1: turnovers a lot this year, and even without Micah Parsons.

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Speaker 1: I think that's why. I think Ebraflus and company were like, Hey,

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Speaker 1: look at we can play defense without him. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: be okay without having Micah Parsons round. Now, he's a

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Speaker 1: great player. Everybody's worth forty seven million dollars. I don't

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Speaker 1: know he's getting a shot in his back already before

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Speaker 1: he plays a single game for the Packers. So I

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Speaker 1: like Ibraflus. I think Schottennheimer might be a decent head coach.

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Speaker 1: Dak's gonna throw the ball a ton. I think he's

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Speaker 1: got weapons, as we know, all over the field. So

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Speaker 1: I think both teams are going to score, but I

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Speaker 1: think the Eagles will win the game. So what am

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Speaker 1: I gonna do? Look at, If you're new and you

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Speaker 1: don't like teasers, you're not gonna like me. During football season,

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Speaker 1: I am obsessed with same game teasers. It's just been

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Speaker 1: my thing. Okay. Does it make it more difficult to

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Speaker 1: win sometimes? Yes? Does it make it more fun? Yes?

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Speaker 1: Am I playing in week one out of the gate

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Speaker 1: game one? Yes? Could that be stupid? Sure, I don't care.

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Speaker 1: Here's what we're doing, all right. Play one on Philly

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Speaker 1: from eight down to two six point same game teaser

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Speaker 1: Philly minus two, and we're taking the total down to

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Speaker 1: forty one and a half, down from forty seven and

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Speaker 1: a half down to forty one and a half, and

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Speaker 1: we're gonna bet over. I think both teams are going

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Speaker 1: to score. It's minus one twenty at DraftKings one point

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Speaker 1: two units down. Same game teaser Philly minus two over

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Speaker 1: forty one and a half from minus one twenty for

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Speaker 1: the first bet of the NFL football season, same game

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Speaker 1: prop bet time. Let's talk about DeVante Smith. DeVante Smith

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Speaker 1: I think could have a really big year. I think

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Speaker 1: the Eagles are gonna throw the ball more than what

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Speaker 1: they did last year because I think they know that

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Speaker 1: Sakuon Barkley is on borrow time right now and they

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Speaker 1: don't want to run him nearly as much as they

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Speaker 1: ran him last year. DeVante Smith, I think could have

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Speaker 1: a really big year for this Eagles team. Reception wise,

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Speaker 1: DeVante Smith, it's only four and a half. It's a

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Speaker 1: fifty six percent cover probability. It's a five star rated play.

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Speaker 1: By the betting pros app it's a plus twenty six

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Speaker 1: expected value. The projection is for five, which is pretty

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Speaker 1: much what he had six, five or four catches every

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Speaker 1: single game. If he gets five we cash, he gets

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Speaker 1: six we cash, he gets four. We miss. But against

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys back in week seventeen, a forty one to

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Speaker 1: seven win for the Eagles over the Cowboys, he had

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Speaker 1: six catches for one hundred and twenty yards and two

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Speaker 1: touchdowns in a game against Dallas. Previously, back on week

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Speaker 1: in Week ten on the road at Dallas, a thirty

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Speaker 1: four to six win for the Eagles, he only had

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Speaker 1: two receptions fourteen receiving yards. He wasn't really a big

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Speaker 1: part of the offense, but most games he is. Most

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Speaker 1: games in particularly last year early he had seven catches.

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Speaker 1: In the first three games of the season, he had seven,

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Speaker 1: to seven and seven for this Eagles offense. It's a

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Speaker 1: good price here at plus or sorry minus one oh three,

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Speaker 1: minus one oh four, one o five, depending on where

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Speaker 1: you're gonna look at this. We're gonna go with a

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Speaker 1: full unit play on this because well we're this far

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Speaker 1: out and I don't want to give you with a

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Speaker 1: thousand bets and I'm gonna I'm gonna not do the

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Speaker 1: half unit thing for a little bit. It may burn me, okay,

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Speaker 1: but prop betting wise, I'm gonna bet full units on

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Speaker 1: prop bets for a little bit using the prop bet

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet and the prop bet analyzer and see if

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Speaker 1: we can start the NFL year and what we can

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Speaker 1: do with that, because we might. It could get hot,

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Speaker 1: It could set us up for a really big year

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. So DeVante Smith over four and a

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Speaker 1: half receptions for one point zero three units. So Philly

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Speaker 1: minus two over forty one and a half. Same game

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Speaker 1: teaser DeVante Smith over four and a half receptions at

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Speaker 1: MIUS one oh three for one point zero three units.

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Speaker 1: Those are the bets for Thursday. Now to the bets

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Speaker 1: for Friday. We're going to Brazil. The Chiefs are taking

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Speaker 1: on the Chargers. This is a home game for the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: I hate this, and I mean I hate this. I

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Speaker 1: cannot believe that this game is being played in Brazil.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully the field will be in better shape than it

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Speaker 1: was last year when the Eagles and the Packers played

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Speaker 1: in this game, Casey is favored by three. The total

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Speaker 1: is up to forty six here between these teams, I

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Speaker 1: am not going to play the full game total. Instead,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna look at the first half. Patrick Mahomes did

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Speaker 1: not play very much in the preseason. Neither did Justin Herbert.

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Speaker 1: I think the defenses for both these teams are going

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Speaker 1: to be really far ahead of the offenses. Early second

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Speaker 1: half might be a different story, but at least in

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Speaker 1: the first half, I actually think this game is going

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Speaker 1: to be a pretty slow, pretty low scoring affair where

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Speaker 1: both defenses really take notice and take notes. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: play the first half under for the Chiefs and the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: Unders in game one have been very profitable. Unders in

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Speaker 1: the first half have been very profitable. You can bind

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Speaker 1: this game being in Brazil. You can bind these teams

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Speaker 1: both wanting to run the football a lot here, Chiefs

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Speaker 1: Chargers under twenty three and a half in the first half.

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Speaker 1: Bet number one for us on Thursday. Now, you don't

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Speaker 1: think I'm not gonna play a same game teaser, right,

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Speaker 1: of course I am. I'm gonna same game tease this

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Speaker 1: as well. I still think this game is gonna be

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Speaker 1: low scoring ish, but it could go over the number

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Speaker 1: that we're at at the moment, which is you know,

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Speaker 1: forty six or so, which makes it a little bit

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Speaker 1: on the concerning side for me on that. But let's talk.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about a two leg. Actually, I'm not same

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Speaker 1: game teasing this. I'm gonna tease it differently without the total.

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Speaker 1: Why because I'm not because a total at forty six

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Speaker 1: you could do one undred fifty two as possible. But

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Speaker 1: that scares me a little bit. I'm a little concerned

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Speaker 1: about that. Instead, I'm gonna take the Chargers and go

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Speaker 1: from three to nine. Why. Well, the Chiefs play one

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Speaker 1: score games and they could lose this games with the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers could win this game. But the Chiefs always

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Speaker 1: tend to play one score games. That's just what they

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Speaker 1: do now. They play defense, they play low scoring games,

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Speaker 1: and they play one score games. I'm not in love

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Speaker 1: with the Chiefs. I'm not in love with their offense.

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Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be questions. I think Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 1: has got some questions about his receivers. I think Travis

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Speaker 1: Kelsey's got his mind somewhere else. The offensive line is good,

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Speaker 1: not great. The running game is good not great. I'm

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Speaker 1: not that the defense is there, So let's play with

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Speaker 1: it and go in the under, but Chargers keep the

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Speaker 1: game close. Plus nine for the Chargers. So what are

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Speaker 1: we gonna pair that up with. Well, we're gonna pair

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Speaker 1: that up with and under. But that under is gonna

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Speaker 1: be the Rams game. Why, Well, the Rams and the Texans.

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Speaker 1: This is coming straight from our boy Erickson, who's been

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Speaker 1: on this and hammering this and talking about the fact

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Speaker 1: that Matthew Stafford's back gets question. The Houston Texans aren't

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Speaker 1: scoring all that much. The Rams defense is going to

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Speaker 1: better than people think, but the Rams offense has got

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Speaker 1: a bunch of questions all around it. Houston defense needs

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Speaker 1: to play well, and both these teams offensively did not

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Speaker 1: look great in the preseason. Under fifty it's currently forty four.

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Speaker 1: Let's tease it up to fifty Rams Texans under fifty

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Speaker 1: for minus one twenty. So that's a Friday Sunday play. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Chargers plus nine Rams under fifty for a six point

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Speaker 1: two leg parlay for US teaser really not part but

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Speaker 1: teaser for US. Teasers are parlays. But the teasers Chargers

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Speaker 1: plus nine Rams under fifty and I have one more

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Speaker 1: bet for us coming up here for this game on

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Speaker 1: Friday and that's Patrick Mahomes under thirty five and a

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Speaker 1: half passing attempts. Prop bit cheat sheet has this as

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Speaker 1: a sixty seven percent cover probability, twenty five percent expected value,

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Speaker 1: and a five star pl for Mahomes to throw to

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Speaker 1: attempt under thirty five and a half passing attempts. It's early.

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Speaker 1: You look for them to establish the run. You look

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Speaker 1: for them to keep moving the chains. You look for

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Speaker 1: them to figure out a way to keep I think,

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Speaker 1: just you know, Herbert and company. We'll see what they

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Speaker 1: look like throwing the ball, and we'll see what you

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Speaker 1: look like at running the football as well. But I

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Speaker 1: just think this is going to be a lower scoring game,

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Speaker 1: lower possessions, and I just don't think Mahomes is going

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Speaker 1: to have enough possessions to drop back and throw this

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Speaker 1: thing thirty thirty six times. I mean Mahomes in week

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Speaker 1: seventeen through thirty eight times at Pittsburgh, he threw forty

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Speaker 1: one times week sixteen. Against Houston, he threw thirty eight

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Speaker 1: times against Cleveland in Week fifteen. But in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: you look at some of these games against Buffalo twenty six,

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Speaker 1: against Houston in the playoffs twenty five, the prop pet

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Speaker 1: Chi Chee is projecting this to be at thirty three

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Speaker 1: passing attempts for Patrick Mahomes leaning more heavily on the run.

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Speaker 1: Game here for Mahome in company, again lower scoring game

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Speaker 1: game that's out of the country, run the ball, more

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Speaker 1: use the offensive line. Mahomes under thirty five and a

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Speaker 1: half passing attempts at minus one fifteen for one point

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Speaker 1: one five units. Okay, So our plays for Thursday and Friday,

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Speaker 1: same game teaser Philly minus two over forty one and

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Speaker 1: a half for Mis one twenty. DeVante Smith prop in

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Speaker 1: that game over four and a half receptions at minus

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Speaker 1: one oh three. Friday first half under twenty three and

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Speaker 1: a half for the Chiefs and the Chargers at Mis

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Speaker 1: one twenty Chargers plus nine rams under fifty two leg

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Speaker 1: teaser for Friday and Sunday at Mis one twenty for

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Speaker 1: one point two units, and Mahomes prop under thirty five

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Speaker 1: and a half passing attempts at minus one fifteen for

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Speaker 1: one point one five units Thursday and Friday. Those are

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Speaker 1: the plays for Week one of the NFL. We have

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Speaker 1: the college slate on Saturday and the NFL Slate on

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Speaker 1: Sunday to give you coming up on tomorrow's podcast for

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Speaker 1: The Daily Juice. It will be a Thursday, after a

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Speaker 1: Wednesday night into a Thursday edition of the podcast, and

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Speaker 1: then Terrelle Furman's Got You Friday, Saturday and Sunday while

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Speaker 1: I recover from this surgery that I am having on

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Speaker 1: Thursday morning. Preopa's on Tuesday, Got it all taken care of.

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Speaker 1: We're rocking, We're locked in, We're good to go, Yestera.

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Speaker 1: After tomorrow, I'll come back hopefully for the Sunday night

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Speaker 1: or Monday morning taping of the podcast and we'll hopefully

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Speaker 1: get rolling with you again. I'll probably tape on Monday

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Speaker 1: morning just FYI for the Monday night game, but I

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Speaker 1: hopefully we will be back on Monday after the surgery.

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Speaker 1: My name's Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me across

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Speaker 1: all of my socials at Sports Doc Matt every morning.

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Speaker 1: Where ever you guys get your podcasts. It is The

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Speaker 1: Daily Juice