Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three, twelve
Speaker 1: since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story
Speaker 1: Rich countries have amassed the lion's share of vaccine doses,
Speaker 1: and that puts the entire world's immunity at risk. But first,
Speaker 1: here's what happened in virus news today. Joseph Biden was
Speaker 1: sworn in as President of the United States today. High
Speaker 1: on his pandemic agenda is mending the country's ties with
Speaker 1: the World Health Organization. Biden plans to send Anthony Fauci,
Speaker 1: the nation's top infectious disease expert, to speak at the
Speaker 1: w h O Executive Board meeting this week. It's a
Speaker 1: repudiation of World Trump's attitude to the organization since the
Speaker 1: start of the pandemic. The Biden transition team released a
Speaker 1: fact sheet this morning saying the new administration will work
Speaker 1: with the w h O to strengthen and reform it.
Speaker 1: Visor and its partner, bio n Tech, published results from
Speaker 1: a lab trial that build the case that their vaccine
Speaker 1: will protect against the new, more contagious variant of the coronavirus.
Speaker 1: The results published on Wednesday, add to previous research showing
Speaker 1: that antibodies and the blood of people who have been
Speaker 1: vaccinated were able to neutralize a version of the mutant
Speaker 1: virus that was created in a lab. The new research
Speaker 1: has not yet been pure reviewed. Finally, Germany's daily coronavirus
Speaker 1: death toll rose by the most since the pandemic began,
Speaker 1: even as there are tentative signs the infection rate is
Speaker 1: starting to come down. Chancellor Angela Merkel and regional leaders
Speaker 1: agree to extend and titan Germany's coronavirus restrictions. Merkel called
Speaker 1: on European partners to synchronize measures to contain the spread. Otherwise,
Speaker 1: she said travel restrictions would be imposed. And now for
Speaker 1: today's main story. In a race to catch up with
Speaker 1: emerging coronavirus variants, wealthy countries are already benefiting from potent vaccines,
Speaker 1: while the US, Britain and the European Union have given
Speaker 1: citizens about twenty four million doses so far, more than
Speaker 1: half of the shots of Minister. Globally, vast numbers of
Speaker 1: countries have yet to begin their campaigns. I spoke with
Speaker 1: London based reporter James Payton, who says these disparities pose
Speaker 1: a threat to both have and have not states. I
Speaker 1: was wondering if you might break this down for US
Speaker 1: a bit, what's the economics at heart here behind a
Speaker 1: country's ability to secure and distribute COVID nineteen vaccines. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a good question. So the world in a way
Speaker 1: is splitting into two tiers. Today. We see wealthier countries,
Speaker 1: as you say, including the US, Britain, members of the
Speaker 1: European Union, ramp up their immunization campaigns, and despite some
Speaker 1: inevitable snags along the way, those efforts are are progressing
Speaker 1: their well under way. At the same time, many developing
Speaker 1: and middle income nations around the world have yet to
Speaker 1: begin their rollouts or they're only just starting up. And
Speaker 1: just this week the head of the World Health Organizations
Speaker 1: set around fifty hiring comb nations had begun their vaccine
Speaker 1: drive US and we keep track of this at Bloomberg. Globally,
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Tracker shows almost uh fifty million doses so
Speaker 1: far have been administered. The problem is only one of
Speaker 1: the world's lowest income countries had had started as of
Speaker 1: a couple of days ago, according to the w h O,
Speaker 1: and had given just twenty five doses to individuals. That's
Speaker 1: to five doses. Now, people who have been following this
Speaker 1: issue closely won't be surprised that there's a gap, because
Speaker 1: the world has been moving in this direction for some months,
Speaker 1: with major economies like the US and and UK aggressively
Speaker 1: snapping up billions of doses in recent months and striking
Speaker 1: supply deals with manufacturers. But now here we are in
Speaker 1: a situation where there's a risk of a widening immunity gap.
Speaker 1: And of course there are significant ethical considerations. You talk
Speaker 1: about the fairness of this, which is a huge factor.
Speaker 1: The director of the who said the world and his
Speaker 1: words is now in the brink of a catastrophic moral failure.
Speaker 1: But this is also a huge public health and economic
Speaker 1: problem potentially as well. You know, widespread deployment of vaccines
Speaker 1: is seen by disease authorities as well as financial experts
Speaker 1: as the as the key to getting the virus under
Speaker 1: control reviving battered economies. So the implications are significant no
Speaker 1: matter where you are. And and obviously if we allow
Speaker 1: the virus to continue to advance in large parts of
Speaker 1: the world without vaccines to protect the population, then the
Speaker 1: virus could get an edge and we could see new
Speaker 1: variants and you know, the level of concern could rise.
Speaker 1: So that's why this is such an urgent issue, UM,
Speaker 1: and why there's a need, you know, according to public
Speaker 1: health authorities to move swiftly here. Now, as you say,
Speaker 1: there have been numerous calls and certainly efforts to make
Speaker 1: vaccine distribution more equitable around the globe. One such effort
Speaker 1: is something called KOVACS, and I was wondering if you
Speaker 1: might talk a bit about what its role has been
Speaker 1: in terms of this equity debate. Yeah, So, as you say,
Speaker 1: there have been ambitious global efforts to tackle this disparity.
Speaker 1: To address this problem, many months ago, the w h
Speaker 1: O and a group called GAV the Vaccine Alliance and SEPPI,
Speaker 1: the Coalition for Epademic Preparedness Innovations, formed this program called
Speaker 1: KOVACS as you say, too, and the goal is basically,
Speaker 1: too equitably deploy vaccines to every corner of the planet.
Speaker 1: And UM, this initiative recently announced that it had secured
Speaker 1: I believe it was almost two billion doses for the
Speaker 1: world and would start rolling out those UH inoculations in
Speaker 1: the first months of one that that could begin in
Speaker 1: earnest in February, I believe. But again, the w h
Speaker 1: O this week issued some pretty dire comments, suggesting that
Speaker 1: several countries had expressed concern about whether KOVACS would have
Speaker 1: enough vaccines to meet demand, and that with UM so
Speaker 1: many countries now pursuing their own direct supply agreements with
Speaker 1: manufacturers rather than going through KOVACS, that it could jeopardize
Speaker 1: global collaboration and even bump up the prices of vaccines,
Speaker 1: which which would further exacerbate the challenge of getting doses
Speaker 1: to the developing world. So some of the experts I've
Speaker 1: talked to point out that UM some countries now are
Speaker 1: getting increasingly anxious about the timing and the quantities of
Speaker 1: of COVID vaccine doses. We're seeing a flurry of these
Speaker 1: bilateral negotiations between countries and drugmakers that are proceeding separately
Speaker 1: from KOVACS. UH. And you know, vaccine advocates are are
Speaker 1: aware of this problem, and so they've called on countries
Speaker 1: and companies to to take some steps to address it.
Speaker 1: So they're significant work and discussion underway. Though clearly the
Speaker 1: know the urgency is growing as we as we enter
Speaker 1: a new phase of the pandemic ine and I wanted
Speaker 1: to go back to something you were talking about a
Speaker 1: little bit earlier, which is the proportion to which countries,
Speaker 1: particularly wealthy countries, have been able to secure specific vaccines.
Speaker 1: You know, what is the distribution in terms of say
Speaker 1: the supply of Fiser vaccines versus Moderna vaccines or even
Speaker 1: say the astro Zenica vaccine. Which type of vaccine is
Speaker 1: going to which country. Yeah, it's a really interesting question,
Speaker 1: so UM and some of the people I have talked
Speaker 1: to have suggested that this isn't just a question of
Speaker 1: access to vaccines globally, but it's also an issue of
Speaker 1: access to highly potent vaccines or the best vaccines. And
Speaker 1: the arrival of shots from Fiser and Maderna, both of
Speaker 1: which generated efficacy levels of around n pretty remarkable results
Speaker 1: in late stage clinical trials, that has sparked the question
Speaker 1: of whether the entire world will be able to secure
Speaker 1: the same level of protection UH for their populations, and
Speaker 1: wealthy countries have have largely bought up the doses of
Speaker 1: those two vaccines. The data that we've that we've seen
Speaker 1: shows UM that they've high incombinations have secured something like
Speaker 1: of the fives or doses and a of the Madurna
Speaker 1: doses UM. Thus far now much of the world is
Speaker 1: going to be relying on vaccines from astros Eneca, the
Speaker 1: UK drug maker and its partner, the University of Oxford,
Speaker 1: along with the Chinese company called sign Avac, potentially a
Speaker 1: vaccine from Johnson and Johnson. The number of others that
Speaker 1: are that are coming uh soon potentially now, even if
Speaker 1: those vaccines don't match the same headline efficacy numbers. You know,
Speaker 1: these vaccines have been tested for their ability to prevent symptoms.
Speaker 1: Health authorities say that when it comes to preventing severe
Speaker 1: disease and suffering and deaths UM the most important factors
Speaker 1: to consider. The data we've seen so far suggests that
Speaker 1: the first vaccines could be comparable, but all of these
Speaker 1: vaccines could end up diverging in terms of side effects
Speaker 1: and how long their protection could last, how efficient they
Speaker 1: are in actually stopping the spread of the virus, which
Speaker 1: will become even more critical I think in the coming months.
Speaker 1: So the jury is still out and it's going to
Speaker 1: be important to consider some of those issues in light
Speaker 1: of the access disparities we're seeing. Clearly, the first vaccines
Speaker 1: out of the gates UM, you know, those wealthy countries
Speaker 1: have been quite aggressive in buying up those doses. UM.
Speaker 1: But astros Eneka and the University of Oxford in particular
Speaker 1: UM are seen as playing a really critical role now
Speaker 1: in getting vaccines to the rest of the world. As
Speaker 1: we've been talking about, wealthier nations have been able to
Speaker 1: secure in some cases not just enough doses to immunize
Speaker 1: their populations, but actually double the amount of doses they
Speaker 1: would need to immunize their populations, Specifically countries such as Canada,
Speaker 1: or the UK, or even the US. How have these
Speaker 1: nations reacted thus far to calls for them perhaps to
Speaker 1: share their doses. Um they're unused doses or doses that
Speaker 1: they have secured but may not actually need. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: a good question. We have seen some steps by uh,
Speaker 1: some wealthy countries in in recent days and weeks. I
Speaker 1: believe Canada has pledged to invest in a mechanism to
Speaker 1: redistribute doses. Norway just said it would donate some extra supplies. UM.
Speaker 1: So there is you know, plenty of focus on this
Speaker 1: issue and reason to think that you know, some of
Speaker 1: these efforts to narrow that divide I will succeed and
Speaker 1: that that UM, some of these countries may you know,
Speaker 1: share some of these doses, reallocate some of these doses.
Speaker 1: Um uh. But you know, this is a scenario that
Speaker 1: people have been warning about for about a year, and
Speaker 1: there there is some skepticism about when, you know when
Speaker 1: that will happen. Um. I think it's also important to
Speaker 1: stress that with the incoming Biden administration, we're likely to
Speaker 1: see some major moves to shake up the vaccine effort
Speaker 1: in the COVID response, and that could have interesting implications
Speaker 1: that have a ripple effect well beyond US borders. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, there are signs that the US now is
Speaker 1: set to join KOVACS and re engage with the World
Speaker 1: Health Organization. So that could be a turning point in
Speaker 1: a way. We'll just have to wait and see. But
Speaker 1: in the global effort, that could be um, that could
Speaker 1: be significant. That was James Payton and that's it for
Speaker 1: our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one
Speaker 1: hundred twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com
Speaker 1: slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave
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Speaker 1: global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Tophra
Speaker 1: Foreheads Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story
Speaker 1: was reported by James Payton. Original music by Leo Sidrin.
Speaker 1: Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening in color
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