1 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three, twelve 2 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: Rich countries have amassed the lion's share of vaccine doses, 4 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: and that puts the entire world's immunity at risk. But first, 5 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 1: here's what happened in virus news today. Joseph Biden was 6 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 1: sworn in as President of the United States today. High 7 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: on his pandemic agenda is mending the country's ties with 8 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:51,160 Speaker 1: the World Health Organization. Biden plans to send Anthony Fauci, 9 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: the nation's top infectious disease expert, to speak at the 10 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 1: w h O Executive Board meeting this week. It's a 11 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: repudiation of World Trump's attitude to the organization since the 12 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: start of the pandemic. The Biden transition team released a 13 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 1: fact sheet this morning saying the new administration will work 14 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: with the w h O to strengthen and reform it. 15 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:21,040 Speaker 1: Visor and its partner, bio n Tech, published results from 16 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: a lab trial that build the case that their vaccine 17 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: will protect against the new, more contagious variant of the coronavirus. 18 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: The results published on Wednesday, add to previous research showing 19 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 1: that antibodies and the blood of people who have been 20 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: vaccinated were able to neutralize a version of the mutant 21 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:42,759 Speaker 1: virus that was created in a lab. The new research 22 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 1: has not yet been pure reviewed. Finally, Germany's daily coronavirus 23 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: death toll rose by the most since the pandemic began, 24 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 1: even as there are tentative signs the infection rate is 25 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: starting to come down. Chancellor Angela Merkel and regional leaders 26 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: agree to extend and titan Germany's coronavirus restrictions. Merkel called 27 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:13,239 Speaker 1: on European partners to synchronize measures to contain the spread. Otherwise, 28 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: she said travel restrictions would be imposed. And now for 29 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: today's main story. In a race to catch up with 30 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 1: emerging coronavirus variants, wealthy countries are already benefiting from potent vaccines, 31 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: while the US, Britain and the European Union have given 32 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:40,359 Speaker 1: citizens about twenty four million doses so far, more than 33 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 1: half of the shots of Minister. Globally, vast numbers of 34 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 1: countries have yet to begin their campaigns. I spoke with 35 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:52,640 Speaker 1: London based reporter James Payton, who says these disparities pose 36 00:02:52,720 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 1: a threat to both have and have not states. I 37 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 1: was wondering if you might break this down for US 38 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:10,679 Speaker 1: a bit, what's the economics at heart here behind a 39 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 1: country's ability to secure and distribute COVID nineteen vaccines. Yeah, 40 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: it's a good question. So the world in a way 41 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 1: is splitting into two tiers. Today. We see wealthier countries, 42 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: as you say, including the US, Britain, members of the 43 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: European Union, ramp up their immunization campaigns, and despite some 44 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: inevitable snags along the way, those efforts are are progressing 45 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: their well under way. At the same time, many developing 46 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: and middle income nations around the world have yet to 47 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 1: begin their rollouts or they're only just starting up. And 48 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: just this week the head of the World Health Organizations 49 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 1: set around fifty hiring comb nations had begun their vaccine 50 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: drive US and we keep track of this at Bloomberg. Globally, 51 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Tracker shows almost uh fifty million doses so 52 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 1: far have been administered. The problem is only one of 53 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 1: the world's lowest income countries had had started as of 54 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 1: a couple of days ago, according to the w h O, 55 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 1: and had given just twenty five doses to individuals. That's 56 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: to five doses. Now, people who have been following this 57 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,559 Speaker 1: issue closely won't be surprised that there's a gap, because 58 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 1: the world has been moving in this direction for some months, 59 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 1: with major economies like the US and and UK aggressively 60 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,479 Speaker 1: snapping up billions of doses in recent months and striking 61 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: supply deals with manufacturers. But now here we are in 62 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: a situation where there's a risk of a widening immunity gap. 63 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: And of course there are significant ethical considerations. You talk 64 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 1: about the fairness of this, which is a huge factor. 65 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 1: The director of the who said the world and his 66 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 1: words is now in the brink of a catastrophic moral failure. 67 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:08,040 Speaker 1: But this is also a huge public health and economic 68 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 1: problem potentially as well. You know, widespread deployment of vaccines 69 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 1: is seen by disease authorities as well as financial experts 70 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,479 Speaker 1: as the as the key to getting the virus under 71 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: control reviving battered economies. So the implications are significant no 72 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:26,720 Speaker 1: matter where you are. And and obviously if we allow 73 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 1: the virus to continue to advance in large parts of 74 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 1: the world without vaccines to protect the population, then the 75 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,480 Speaker 1: virus could get an edge and we could see new 76 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: variants and you know, the level of concern could rise. 77 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 1: So that's why this is such an urgent issue, UM, 78 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 1: and why there's a need, you know, according to public 79 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 1: health authorities to move swiftly here. Now, as you say, 80 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 1: there have been numerous calls and certainly efforts to make 81 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:59,040 Speaker 1: vaccine distribution more equitable around the globe. One such effort 82 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: is something called KOVACS, and I was wondering if you 83 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:05,119 Speaker 1: might talk a bit about what its role has been 84 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:09,479 Speaker 1: in terms of this equity debate. Yeah, So, as you say, 85 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: there have been ambitious global efforts to tackle this disparity. 86 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:19,039 Speaker 1: To address this problem, many months ago, the w h 87 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:22,600 Speaker 1: O and a group called GAV the Vaccine Alliance and SEPPI, 88 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 1: the Coalition for Epademic Preparedness Innovations, formed this program called 89 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 1: KOVACS as you say, too, and the goal is basically, 90 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 1: too equitably deploy vaccines to every corner of the planet. 91 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:40,039 Speaker 1: And UM, this initiative recently announced that it had secured 92 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 1: I believe it was almost two billion doses for the 93 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: world and would start rolling out those UH inoculations in 94 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:50,039 Speaker 1: the first months of one that that could begin in 95 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: earnest in February, I believe. But again, the w h 96 00:06:54,839 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: O this week issued some pretty dire comments, suggesting that 97 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 1: several countries had expressed concern about whether KOVACS would have 98 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:09,279 Speaker 1: enough vaccines to meet demand, and that with UM so 99 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: many countries now pursuing their own direct supply agreements with 100 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: manufacturers rather than going through KOVACS, that it could jeopardize 101 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: global collaboration and even bump up the prices of vaccines, 102 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 1: which which would further exacerbate the challenge of getting doses 103 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: to the developing world. So some of the experts I've 104 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: talked to point out that UM some countries now are 105 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: getting increasingly anxious about the timing and the quantities of 106 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 1: of COVID vaccine doses. We're seeing a flurry of these 107 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: bilateral negotiations between countries and drugmakers that are proceeding separately 108 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 1: from KOVACS. UH. And you know, vaccine advocates are are 109 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: aware of this problem, and so they've called on countries 110 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 1: and companies to to take some steps to address it. 111 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: So they're significant work and discussion underway. Though clearly the 112 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: know the urgency is growing as we as we enter 113 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: a new phase of the pandemic ine and I wanted 114 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: to go back to something you were talking about a 115 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 1: little bit earlier, which is the proportion to which countries, 116 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: particularly wealthy countries, have been able to secure specific vaccines. 117 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 1: You know, what is the distribution in terms of say 118 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:28,679 Speaker 1: the supply of Fiser vaccines versus Moderna vaccines or even 119 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 1: say the astro Zenica vaccine. Which type of vaccine is 120 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: going to which country. Yeah, it's a really interesting question, 121 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: so UM and some of the people I have talked 122 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 1: to have suggested that this isn't just a question of 123 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 1: access to vaccines globally, but it's also an issue of 124 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: access to highly potent vaccines or the best vaccines. And 125 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 1: the arrival of shots from Fiser and Maderna, both of 126 00:08:54,640 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: which generated efficacy levels of around n pretty remarkable results 127 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 1: in late stage clinical trials, that has sparked the question 128 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: of whether the entire world will be able to secure 129 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 1: the same level of protection UH for their populations, and 130 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 1: wealthy countries have have largely bought up the doses of 131 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 1: those two vaccines. The data that we've that we've seen 132 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 1: shows UM that they've high incombinations have secured something like 133 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: of the fives or doses and a of the Madurna 134 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 1: doses UM. Thus far now much of the world is 135 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: going to be relying on vaccines from astros Eneca, the 136 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 1: UK drug maker and its partner, the University of Oxford, 137 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: along with the Chinese company called sign Avac, potentially a 138 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: vaccine from Johnson and Johnson. The number of others that 139 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: are that are coming uh soon potentially now, even if 140 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:56,439 Speaker 1: those vaccines don't match the same headline efficacy numbers. You know, 141 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: these vaccines have been tested for their ability to prevent symptoms. 142 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,559 Speaker 1: Health authorities say that when it comes to preventing severe 143 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 1: disease and suffering and deaths UM the most important factors 144 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: to consider. The data we've seen so far suggests that 145 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 1: the first vaccines could be comparable, but all of these 146 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 1: vaccines could end up diverging in terms of side effects 147 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:22,839 Speaker 1: and how long their protection could last, how efficient they 148 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: are in actually stopping the spread of the virus, which 149 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: will become even more critical I think in the coming months. 150 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 1: So the jury is still out and it's going to 151 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,079 Speaker 1: be important to consider some of those issues in light 152 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:39,839 Speaker 1: of the access disparities we're seeing. Clearly, the first vaccines 153 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: out of the gates UM, you know, those wealthy countries 154 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: have been quite aggressive in buying up those doses. UM. 155 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,599 Speaker 1: But astros Eneka and the University of Oxford in particular 156 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 1: UM are seen as playing a really critical role now 157 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 1: in getting vaccines to the rest of the world. As 158 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: we've been talking about, wealthier nations have been able to 159 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 1: secure in some cases not just enough doses to immunize 160 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: their populations, but actually double the amount of doses they 161 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 1: would need to immunize their populations, Specifically countries such as Canada, 162 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 1: or the UK, or even the US. How have these 163 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: nations reacted thus far to calls for them perhaps to 164 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:26,680 Speaker 1: share their doses. Um they're unused doses or doses that 165 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 1: they have secured but may not actually need. Yeah, it's 166 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: a good question. We have seen some steps by uh, 167 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 1: some wealthy countries in in recent days and weeks. I 168 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: believe Canada has pledged to invest in a mechanism to 169 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 1: redistribute doses. Norway just said it would donate some extra supplies. UM. 170 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: So there is you know, plenty of focus on this 171 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: issue and reason to think that you know, some of 172 00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: these efforts to narrow that divide I will succeed and 173 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 1: that that UM, some of these countries may you know, 174 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: share some of these doses, reallocate some of these doses. 175 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: Um uh. But you know, this is a scenario that 176 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: people have been warning about for about a year, and 177 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: there there is some skepticism about when, you know when 178 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 1: that will happen. Um. I think it's also important to 179 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 1: stress that with the incoming Biden administration, we're likely to 180 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 1: see some major moves to shake up the vaccine effort 181 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 1: in the COVID response, and that could have interesting implications 182 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 1: that have a ripple effect well beyond US borders. Um. 183 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 1: You know, there are signs that the US now is 184 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 1: set to join KOVACS and re engage with the World 185 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 1: Health Organization. So that could be a turning point in 186 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: a way. We'll just have to wait and see. But 187 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 1: in the global effort, that could be um, that could 188 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 1: be significant. That was James Payton and that's it for 189 00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one 190 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: hundred twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com 191 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:07,439 Speaker 1: slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave 192 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:10,839 Speaker 1: us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 193 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: It's the best way to help more listeners find our 194 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 1: global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Tophra 195 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 1: Foreheads Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story 196 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: was reported by James Payton. Original music by Leo Sidrin. 197 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi 198 00:13:33,040 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening in color 199 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 1: and