WEBVTT - The Jonathan Asante Aftershow

0:00:06.600 --> 0:00:09.640
<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Maren Jock's Money the After Show. This is

0:00:09.640 --> 0:00:11.479
<v Speaker 1>where we unpack all the commentary you here in our

0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:14.880
<v Speaker 1>regular podcast. I'm Maren sum So Web. This week, John Steppeck,

0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:18.400
<v Speaker 1>senior reporter at Bloomberg, author of the Daily Money Distilled newsletter,

0:00:18.560 --> 0:00:21.880
<v Speaker 1>joined me to discuss my conversation with Jonathan Asante from

0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:24.880
<v Speaker 1>manager at Your Car Investments. Jonathan started with you Carr

0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.280
<v Speaker 1>Investments and this year after taking a short break from

0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:29.680
<v Speaker 1>the industry in twenty nineteen. Before that, he worked as

0:00:29.720 --> 0:00:32.640
<v Speaker 1>Stewart Investors for fifteen years and I've been watching his

0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:36.120
<v Speaker 1>career for some time. John, I don't think you've ever

0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:38.919
<v Speaker 1>met Jonathan, and because he was you know, I met

0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:40.800
<v Speaker 1>him in Edinburgh a few times. I'm not sure you

0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:42.519
<v Speaker 1>ever did. What did you think about that interview?

0:00:43.000 --> 0:00:44.839
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that was met but I thought that was great.

0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:47.360
<v Speaker 2>That was really thought for working wine.

0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:51.519
<v Speaker 1>What thoughts were provoked?

0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:59.120
<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's EM's I met in markets of something

0:00:59.200 --> 0:01:03.120
<v Speaker 2>that sort of have. I don't know what you think,

0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:05.840
<v Speaker 2>but it feels as if they've almost vanished off the

0:01:05.920 --> 0:01:10.839
<v Speaker 2>radar in a lot of ways when talking about markets.

0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:13.919
<v Speaker 2>I mean, obviously that's partly because the US has sucked

0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:16.360
<v Speaker 2>up basically all of the oxygen and all of the money.

0:01:17.000 --> 0:01:20.320
<v Speaker 2>But it is also because obviously what he said about

0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:24.640
<v Speaker 2>governance is absolutely correct, and it's interesting that they were

0:01:24.720 --> 0:01:28.399
<v Speaker 2>onto that really quite early. By the sounds of it.

0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:31.920
<v Speaker 2>You're obviously China becoming more authoritarian is the kind of

0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:34.640
<v Speaker 2>big one. But you know, things that he pointed to

0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:37.200
<v Speaker 2>it like Turkey kind of you know, going off the

0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:40.800
<v Speaker 2>rails somewhat when it comes to governance. I thought that

0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:44.840
<v Speaker 2>was a really interesting point, and also just emphasizing that

0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:48.880
<v Speaker 2>point about governance is something that certainly we kind of

0:01:48.920 --> 0:01:53.040
<v Speaker 2>forgot has developed market investors during the nineties and early

0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:55.800
<v Speaker 2>two thousands, because there was that whole period where everyone

0:01:55.880 --> 0:01:58.320
<v Speaker 2>was saying, yeah, it's all fine, you can stick as

0:01:58.400 --> 0:02:00.400
<v Speaker 2>much money as you want in Russia. Capital is going

0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:04.160
<v Speaker 2>to win out anyway, and then of course you find it, well, actually, no,

0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:07.480
<v Speaker 2>that's that's not how things work. Can do your world,

0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:12.080
<v Speaker 2>and the person who is able to make the laws

0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:14.680
<v Speaker 2>actually has much more power than the markets do.

0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:17.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. I mean I was into that as well, and

0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:20.720
<v Speaker 1>I was particularly pleased that he talked about it like

0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:22.280
<v Speaker 1>that because one of the things that I know is

0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:25.079
<v Speaker 1>driven you mad and has always driven me mad. Is

0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:28.519
<v Speaker 1>this idea that if you see economic growth in a country,

0:02:28.560 --> 0:02:31.680
<v Speaker 1>if you see the GDP numbers going up, you're automatically

0:02:31.760 --> 0:02:34.000
<v Speaker 1>going to see the stock market going up as well.

0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:36.280
<v Speaker 1>And there's decades of evidence to show us that that

0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:38.919
<v Speaker 1>isn't true, but people still think it is, and they

0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:42.120
<v Speaker 1>still write those articles going, oh, look, this company's getting richer,

0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:43.680
<v Speaker 1>therefore you should buy the stock market.

0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:46.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, and that's I mean, the best example

0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:48.560
<v Speaker 2>of that is actually, again so ones that came up

0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:51.840
<v Speaker 2>in the conversation with China versus India, and you've been

0:02:51.880 --> 0:02:55.320
<v Speaker 2>far putting your money and the Indian stock market at

0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:59.040
<v Speaker 2>almost any point really in the last ten years, whereas

0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:04.160
<v Speaker 2>in terms of the country that has developed most economically

0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:08.280
<v Speaker 2>and you know, and certain metrics improve the lis of

0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:11.280
<v Speaker 2>its own citizens more, then that would you'd have to

0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:15.200
<v Speaker 2>say that was China, you know. But but India has

0:03:15.440 --> 0:03:18.200
<v Speaker 2>produced by far the best shareholder runs over that period.

0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:21.640
<v Speaker 1>And I suppose the other point, it's not just about

0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:23.600
<v Speaker 1>the governance, and it's not just about the government. It's

0:03:23.639 --> 0:03:25.960
<v Speaker 1>also about the valuations where things start. And whenever I

0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:28.919
<v Speaker 1>write articles about look, economic growth is not the same

0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:31.799
<v Speaker 1>as stock market growth. I tend to start with valuations,

0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:34.079
<v Speaker 1>but next time I do it, I'm going to think

0:03:34.120 --> 0:03:36.720
<v Speaker 1>more about what Jonathan said and start with governance.

0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:40.400
<v Speaker 2>Seriously, I think Russia is the very obvious one on

0:03:40.520 --> 0:03:43.360
<v Speaker 2>that front. It's like you can have as many as

0:03:43.440 --> 0:03:45.360
<v Speaker 2>you know, It's often been the cheapest market in the world,

0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:49.080
<v Speaker 2>and there's often been points where you know, I would say,

0:03:50.200 --> 0:03:54.640
<v Speaker 2>despite my kind of like long skepticism of it, that

0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:57.480
<v Speaker 2>have been points would have thought that is so cheap.

0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:00.080
<v Speaker 2>Surely to good nation, or she sticks some more, and

0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:02.720
<v Speaker 2>of course you'd be able if you were a trading person,

0:04:03.000 --> 0:04:04.320
<v Speaker 2>you could have made a lot of money in it.

0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:06.360
<v Speaker 2>But you know, and now that it's kind of like

0:04:06.440 --> 0:04:09.480
<v Speaker 2>a pariah state and your capital's basically stuck there if

0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:11.560
<v Speaker 2>it was there, And I think the risk is that,

0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:16.440
<v Speaker 2>you know, you keep reading about people keep saying, oh, yeah, no,

0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:18.600
<v Speaker 2>China is looking cheap and you know how you should

0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:21.760
<v Speaker 2>stick some money, and just now you're thinking, well, I

0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:26.400
<v Speaker 2>don't really see how this mentality can stand side by side.

0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:29.360
<v Speaker 2>When there's articles on Bloomberg about how China could take

0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:32.640
<v Speaker 2>over Taiwane. You know, you're kind of like, if you

0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:35.480
<v Speaker 2>if China invetes, time wine. What do you think is

0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:37.880
<v Speaker 2>going to happen to any money you've invested in any

0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:41.440
<v Speaker 2>Chinese stock? Just have a wild guess.

0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:43.720
<v Speaker 1>And particularly when you don't own those stocks. That right, well,

0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:47.520
<v Speaker 1>exactly various mechanisms. But I just want John, before we

0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:51.040
<v Speaker 1>go in a further I want listeners who haven't known

0:04:51.080 --> 0:04:53.080
<v Speaker 1>you and I for a long time to know what

0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:56.520
<v Speaker 1>you're doing here. Right. I know you think that their

0:04:56.520 --> 0:04:59.080
<v Speaker 1>new listeners out here, and what you're saying is completely innocent,

0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:01.440
<v Speaker 1>and I'm the only one who picking it up. But look,

0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:06.520
<v Speaker 1>listen it okay. John always said Russia will never be

0:05:06.600 --> 0:05:10.039
<v Speaker 1>cheap enough. You should never buy Russia. There's too much

0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:12.720
<v Speaker 1>that could go wrong. The geopolitical risk is too high,

0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:16.040
<v Speaker 1>the government is too awful, et cetera. And I said,

0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:21.040
<v Speaker 1>sometimes it's cheap enough. And there was a point when

0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:24.040
<v Speaker 1>I wrote a column saying Russia is now so cheap

0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:27.560
<v Speaker 1>it's pretty much discounting a return to communism or World

0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.520
<v Speaker 1>War three, and that's not going to happen. So I

0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:33.440
<v Speaker 1>suggested people bought Russian equities. I was completely wrong. And

0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:35.720
<v Speaker 1>what John's doing here is just letting you know that

0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:40.840
<v Speaker 1>he was right there, right on the entire last five

0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:44.280
<v Speaker 1>minutes have been it's a very sophisticated type of audio

0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:45.120
<v Speaker 1>frolling of me.

0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:50.440
<v Speaker 2>Well, it's just a ninety eight percent your ratement with

0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:53.839
<v Speaker 2>so I just need to tame that.

0:05:53.920 --> 0:06:00.360
<v Speaker 3>I was there's our personal conflicts aside the one one

0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:02.919
<v Speaker 3>of the many things that I thought was very interesting

0:06:03.080 --> 0:06:06.760
<v Speaker 3>in my conversation with Jonathan was his approach to ESG.

0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:11.160
<v Speaker 1>And I was really interested in the way that he

0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:14.479
<v Speaker 1>looked at luxury goods companies. And he looked at it

0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:17.919
<v Speaker 1>in terms of not the way they run their businesses

0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:21.040
<v Speaker 1>and you could talk about that, but the clients that

0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:23.599
<v Speaker 1>they have and where the money that their clients have

0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:27.280
<v Speaker 1>come from. And he talked about being concerned about investing

0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:31.240
<v Speaker 1>in the big luxury goods companies because their clients represent

0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:35.200
<v Speaker 1>capital flight from countries that really should be using their

0:06:35.240 --> 0:06:37.599
<v Speaker 1>cash to improve the lives of their populations in general,

0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:40.720
<v Speaker 1>rather than nicking it by handbags. And I thought that

0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:44.720
<v Speaker 1>was really interesting because it was I think a correct

0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:48.440
<v Speaker 1>way to look at ESG. This isn't about box ticking,

0:06:48.520 --> 0:06:50.040
<v Speaker 1>this is about thoughtfulness.

0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:53.160
<v Speaker 4>We found it very difficult, and again we haven't had

0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:54.960
<v Speaker 4>much chance to invest in them. We found it very

0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:57.360
<v Speaker 4>difficult to invest over the years in luxury goods companies,

0:06:57.640 --> 0:07:00.520
<v Speaker 4>and that's an even grayer area. And on the one hand,

0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:04.400
<v Speaker 4>it's very aspirational and you know, people striving for material,

0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:07.200
<v Speaker 4>to gain pleasure for material. On the other hand, we

0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:09.760
<v Speaker 4>have we associate it and we have some evidence that

0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:12.680
<v Speaker 4>it's also linked to political economies or an elite is

0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:14.320
<v Speaker 4>stealing capital flight when it.

0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:16.760
<v Speaker 1>Comes back centered money not being shared and.

0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:19.440
<v Speaker 4>You know, ending up in London or Singapore. And it's

0:07:19.480 --> 0:07:22.160
<v Speaker 4>interesting the Singapore government, i think, is thinking about this

0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:24.080
<v Speaker 4>now as well. And so what you're doing there is

0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:26.640
<v Speaker 4>you're trying to weigh up a number of gray areas.

0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:29.160
<v Speaker 4>You know, one is is quite a positive sort of striving,

0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:31.080
<v Speaker 4>and the other is actually there's a lot of capital

0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:34.440
<v Speaker 4>flight involved in the developing world in some of these goods,

0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:35.480
<v Speaker 4>and that's going against what.

0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:39.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and that was really thoughtful because I was reading

0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:42.120
<v Speaker 2>through the transcript and I saw various other ones and

0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:45.240
<v Speaker 2>there saw louxury goods come up, and my immediate assumption was, Okay,

0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:48.040
<v Speaker 2>there's gonna be something to be the factories and really

0:07:48.040 --> 0:07:51.520
<v Speaker 2>make their stuff. And it wasn't you know, you're really

0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:53.880
<v Speaker 2>it's absolute. This is a kind of capital flight, and

0:07:53.880 --> 0:07:57.240
<v Speaker 2>I thought that's a really interesting we are look at it.

0:07:57.240 --> 0:08:00.960
<v Speaker 2>It's also is really sophisticated, and it's also only something

0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:05.800
<v Speaker 2>that someone with genuine experience of emerging markets we'd think

0:08:05.880 --> 0:08:09.400
<v Speaker 2>of because the rest is sorely you or can you know,

0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:12.120
<v Speaker 2>set down and think, well, you know, hind bags fancy

0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:15.160
<v Speaker 2>hand bags? Was wrongly our fancy hand bag except maybe

0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:17.560
<v Speaker 2>skind an alligator to get it or something like that.

0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:20.560
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, So yeah, I thought that was that

0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:24.120
<v Speaker 2>was as you say it can that's that's real ESG

0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:25.880
<v Speaker 2>rather than box taking.

0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:30.440
<v Speaker 1>It's genuine thoughtfulness about both the the S and the

0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:35.319
<v Speaker 1>G in ESGN, and we don't come across that much. Also,

0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:37.160
<v Speaker 1>I think of interest was going much for what you're

0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:39.520
<v Speaker 1>saying about China and India that it was India where

0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:42.680
<v Speaker 1>he said, well, he doesn't like to hick countries. He's

0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:45.640
<v Speaker 1>very clear in saying India is the place where he

0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:49.319
<v Speaker 1>finds the most companies that fit fit their criteria.

0:08:49.400 --> 0:08:53.760
<v Speaker 4>At the moment, we've tended to find more companies over

0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:56.560
<v Speaker 4>the many years in India, and that's not that's because

0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:58.960
<v Speaker 4>there are so many companies listed in India. It's the

0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:01.160
<v Speaker 4>proportions are still quite low, but it's just that there

0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:03.280
<v Speaker 4>are just so many and the stock market has been

0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:05.959
<v Speaker 4>allowed to evolve in a sort of vibrant way. We

0:09:06.000 --> 0:09:07.720
<v Speaker 4>would have hoped twenty years ago at the Turkey would

0:09:07.720 --> 0:09:10.240
<v Speaker 4>have gone the same way, but under different leadership it hasn't.

0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:12.120
<v Speaker 4>So that's a place where we find lots of companies.

0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:13.680
<v Speaker 4>We can find a few in Latin America.

0:09:13.800 --> 0:09:15.880
<v Speaker 1>That was interesting because people keep asking us, don't make

0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:18.280
<v Speaker 1>China or India, China or India, and we tend to

0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:19.760
<v Speaker 1>think only on the India.

0:09:20.679 --> 0:09:23.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean the frustrating thing that India is that

0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:27.120
<v Speaker 2>it always looks expensive and it's never not looked expensive

0:09:27.240 --> 0:09:29.840
<v Speaker 2>basically the whole time you and I have been covering it.

0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:32.000
<v Speaker 2>And I think, so I suppose you you probably just

0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:35.280
<v Speaker 2>have to swallow that if it's you know, something that

0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:38.680
<v Speaker 2>went to the cup. Also, obviously it's another argument for

0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:41.719
<v Speaker 2>active investment. And I don't know if maybe Jonathan was

0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:45.319
<v Speaker 2>subtly making that point, because he did say it's partly

0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:47.280
<v Speaker 2>a function of the fact that India has just got

0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:50.920
<v Speaker 2>like thousands of companies, and it says it's a small

0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:53.640
<v Speaker 2>proportion of them that is interested in but because there

0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:56.720
<v Speaker 2>are so many that's actually still quite a big playing field,

0:09:56.760 --> 0:09:59.960
<v Speaker 2>even though it's a tiny percentage. So yes, so maybe

0:10:00.160 --> 0:10:02.200
<v Speaker 2>Lissners if you if you do want to go into

0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:05.120
<v Speaker 2>emerging markets, that's a very good argument for using active

0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:06.080
<v Speaker 2>rather than passive.

0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:09.120
<v Speaker 1>Well, it's worth mentioning by the way that it is.

0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:12.120
<v Speaker 1>It is the case a lot of pushback against US, obviously,

0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:14.760
<v Speaker 1>but a lot of studies do show that outside of

0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:17.560
<v Speaker 1>the US active management does that perform, not by much,

0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:20.360
<v Speaker 1>not by much, but in the main outside the US,

0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:24.440
<v Speaker 1>and particularly outside megacap US, the performance of active active

0:10:24.440 --> 0:10:28.040
<v Speaker 1>managers tends to be superior. So, particularly in emerging markets.

0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:30.000
<v Speaker 1>I do think that if you're going if you're choosing

0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:31.800
<v Speaker 1>be from passive active, you may be a lot better

0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:32.480
<v Speaker 1>off with active.

0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:36.400
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that was really interesting because I don't know if

0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:38.440
<v Speaker 2>we're talking about the same study, but it was something

0:10:38.480 --> 0:10:42.160
<v Speaker 2>that someone up for the FT and it was talking

0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:46.559
<v Speaker 2>about why is active management processed? And yeah, absolutely, there

0:10:46.600 --> 0:10:49.400
<v Speaker 2>was that point that at an institutional level where you

0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:53.080
<v Speaker 2>get to pee lower fees, then there is a even

0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:57.120
<v Speaker 2>though it's small, there's an OUE performance for everything except

0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:58.520
<v Speaker 2>for US large caps.

0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:01.000
<v Speaker 1>This is not the first study to show this. I've

0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:03.199
<v Speaker 1>written about it several times over the years, because you know,

0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:07.040
<v Speaker 1>frustrated active managers keep commissioning the same research. I'm getting

0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:10.840
<v Speaker 1>the same result. But because so much active management is

0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:13.120
<v Speaker 1>desperately trying to attempt to be something they can't really be.

0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:16.840
<v Speaker 1>Large cap America people get this general idea that passive

0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:20.160
<v Speaker 1>is better in every environment, and it simply isn't. Simply isn't.

0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:21.640
<v Speaker 2>Interesting.

0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:26.600
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, interesting anyway, onto valuations, and I have pulled out

0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:30.000
<v Speaker 1>for us the latest valuation metrics table from Schroders that

0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:31.880
<v Speaker 1>you and I both like to look at. Thank you Duncan.

0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:34.640
<v Speaker 1>If you didn't listen to Duncan on our podcast a

0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:36.280
<v Speaker 1>few weeks ago, back, go back and listen to it.

0:11:36.440 --> 0:11:42.000
<v Speaker 1>He'sully good and emerging markets as usual come out on

0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:47.400
<v Speaker 1>the cheaper side. So cycnically adjusted PE twenty one percent

0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:51.320
<v Speaker 1>below fifteen year median forward PE kind of bang on

0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:53.760
<v Speaker 1>trailing pee, kind of bang on price a book kind

0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:55.920
<v Speaker 1>of bang on. So you know, in the great scheme

0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:59.600
<v Speaker 1>of things, it looks relatively cheap, particularly compared to the US,

0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:03.160
<v Speaker 1>which is stal on a CAPE of twenty eight sixteen

0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:06.000
<v Speaker 1>percent above its usual level and price of book where

0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:08.920
<v Speaker 1>it is on a level four point one forty three

0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:11.560
<v Speaker 1>percent above. It's a historical level, I know. And you

0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:13.520
<v Speaker 1>can argue that's all technology and you know that that

0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:15.839
<v Speaker 1>much book value blah blah blah, But nonetheless it does

0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:18.240
<v Speaker 1>stand up what I mattered. I'll just tell you that

0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.640
<v Speaker 1>the other places that look cheap are the UK well done,

0:12:21.679 --> 0:12:25.000
<v Speaker 1>the UK always cheap, always winning on cheap, always winning

0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:28.960
<v Speaker 1>on cheap. The cheapest cheapest of the large markets in

0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:32.760
<v Speaker 1>forward pemp sixteen percent below a little above in CAPE.

0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.319
<v Speaker 1>So you know, that's bit disappointing. Trailing PE is still

0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:39.480
<v Speaker 1>is still cheaper price and book still cheap. America super

0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:42.560
<v Speaker 1>expensive across the board. You know, the CAPE in the

0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:45.600
<v Speaker 1>US is now double that of the US of the UK.

0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:46.280
<v Speaker 1>It's amazing.

0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:48.959
<v Speaker 2>Really Yeah, who knows when when it will when it

0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:52.400
<v Speaker 2>will adjust that. That's why we have diversified portfolios.

0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:55.080
<v Speaker 1>That's why we have diverse FOO portfolios. Now at the end,

0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.679
<v Speaker 1>last thing I want to talk about on Jonathan is

0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:04.400
<v Speaker 1>that he for gold, bitcoin, gold. He's very modern Jonathan,

0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:06.480
<v Speaker 1>very thoughtful. He thought about it a bit and then

0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:08.760
<v Speaker 1>he went for gold, even though he doesn't feel one

0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:11.720
<v Speaker 1>hundred percent comfortable with gold. You know, it's just not

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:14.199
<v Speaker 1>not his thing, and he hasn't done quite what he

0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:16.440
<v Speaker 1>would have thought it would do over the last couple

0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:18.560
<v Speaker 1>of decades, etc. Although I'd say it is doing what

0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:21.439
<v Speaker 1>it's supposed to do now. However, he would choose gold

0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:23.800
<v Speaker 1>over bitcoin definitely, and I didn't talk to him about

0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:26.680
<v Speaker 1>at the time, but I thought about it afterwards. I wondered,

0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:30.000
<v Speaker 1>if you talk to him about not just bitcoin, but

0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:35.080
<v Speaker 1>about cryptocurrencies in general, he would have a similar ESG

0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:38.440
<v Speaker 1>feeling about them as he does about the big luxury

0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:43.080
<v Speaker 1>goods companies, in that you can't blame the providers, but

0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.559
<v Speaker 1>an awful lot of the users aren't people you want

0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:47.280
<v Speaker 1>to have supper with.

0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:50.400
<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean, he did not for cash, and then

0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.160
<v Speaker 2>can I twisted his arm which was bitcoin on gold?

0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:57.679
<v Speaker 2>But I think when I mean, that's a really good

0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:00.400
<v Speaker 2>point and bitcoin. The only thing I guess I would

0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:05.240
<v Speaker 2>say is that I think the bitcoin probably beats handbags

0:14:05.280 --> 0:14:07.920
<v Speaker 2>in terms of if you have to flee a country,

0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:12.160
<v Speaker 2>and that is something that again an emerging market expert

0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:16.240
<v Speaker 2>might actually we don't consider, but yeah, know it. There's

0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:20.720
<v Speaker 2>no doubt that a lot of bitcoin usage, in crypto

0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:25.000
<v Speaker 2>usage in general is for nefarious stuff. And the question,

0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:28.560
<v Speaker 2>and it's certainly not ESG. I suppose it demonstrating bitcoin

0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:32.240
<v Speaker 2>and luxury goods is that Bitcoin's always had this. It's

0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:36.120
<v Speaker 2>not ESG thing hanging over it. Whereas the idea that

0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:41.680
<v Speaker 2>the luxury goods sector is ethically problematic because of what

0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:44.200
<v Speaker 2>the goods are used for rather than how they're made

0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:46.000
<v Speaker 2>is a really interesting insight.

0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:49.680
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. And the thing that I would have asked him

0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:51.760
<v Speaker 1>if I'd known anything about it, and I might now

0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:54.560
<v Speaker 1>ask people on our podcast is a question someone asked

0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:58.640
<v Speaker 1>me an investment trust shovel or ask me at a

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:01.880
<v Speaker 1>lunch the other day. He said to me, what will

0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:06.280
<v Speaker 1>happen if there is another Carrington event? Do you know

0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:07.560
<v Speaker 1>what a Carrington event is?

0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:11.920
<v Speaker 2>I saw you see this on Twitter and I googled it,

0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:13.120
<v Speaker 2>so I know what it is now.

0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:19.600
<v Speaker 1>Okay. The most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history, which

0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 1>peaked on the second of September eighteen fifty nine during

0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:25.680
<v Speaker 1>solar cycle ten. I've no idea what solar cycle ten is.

0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:29.040
<v Speaker 1>That's not my area, but nonetheless it was incredibly beautiful.

0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:31.960
<v Speaker 1>You can see the northern lights across the globe apparently,

0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:37.600
<v Speaker 1>but it knocked out every single telegraph station everywhere. So

0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:42.320
<v Speaker 1>what happens if there is another huge solar storm like

0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:46.560
<v Speaker 1>that It was hypothetical but entirely possible, and it takes

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:51.240
<v Speaker 1>out pretty much everything. What is bitcoin during a Carrington event?

0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:53.600
<v Speaker 1>And that's why I would always choose golf.

0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:58.440
<v Speaker 2>I think that's absolutely fear turkey things. All you be

0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:04.480
<v Speaker 2>tough to you have probably have to have your gold well, okay, probably,

0:16:04.760 --> 0:16:05.760
<v Speaker 2>I'm just trying to think.

0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:07.920
<v Speaker 1>If it was I shouldn't bring this stuff on you?

0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:08.760
<v Speaker 1>Should I join it?

0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:12.800
<v Speaker 2>I just thinking, so there was Carrington event and you

0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:15.640
<v Speaker 2>had the gold, it's probably fine if you had the

0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:19.520
<v Speaker 2>gold in a volt somewhere because that would be recorded,

0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:25.400
<v Speaker 2>not in electronically, or at least some sort of paper

0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:31.560
<v Speaker 2>trio somewhere. Possibly. Just try to think all this year

0:16:31.640 --> 0:16:33.360
<v Speaker 2>register doesn't well.

0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:36.880
<v Speaker 1>Gone gone, gone, gone gone, So maybe it's only the

0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:38.760
<v Speaker 1>stuff on the blockchain that would still be there when

0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 1>everything came back on again. But it is one of

0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:44.720
<v Speaker 1>those things that is a reminder that if you hold gold,

0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:47.040
<v Speaker 1>you are really holding gold for you know, to protect

0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:49.880
<v Speaker 1>you against inflation, but in extremists, you're holding gold so

0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:53.840
<v Speaker 1>that you can have it on your person in extremists.

0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:56.440
<v Speaker 1>So is it a good idea to hold large amounts

0:16:56.400 --> 0:17:00.240
<v Speaker 1>of of gold digitally or in a volt or some

0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:02.400
<v Speaker 1>a few sovereigns in your pocket all the time. There

0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:04.280
<v Speaker 1>we go down a rabbit hole. We've gone, I think

0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:08.920
<v Speaker 1>we better stop that. Thank you for listening to this

0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:12.199
<v Speaker 1>week's Marin Talks Money the After Show. This episode was

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.159
<v Speaker 1>hosted by me Meren Sunset Weather alongside John Steffeck. It

0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:18.399
<v Speaker 1>was produced by Summersidi additional editing by Blake Maple