WEBVTT - US Hiring Surges, Bolstering Case for Another Fed Rate Hike 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:05.680 This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:09.440 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.520 --> 0:00:13.680 global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:18.960 Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:20.920 --> 0:00:28.800 What's so while you like, all right, it is all 0:00:28.800 --> 0:00:31.120 about that big jobs report. Just talking about a little 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:33.720 bit with our TV team here. But you know, Jess, 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:36.360 you take a look at some of the headlines that 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:38.760 are among the most read in the Bloomberg yep US 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:42.200 hiring surges, bolstering the case for another FED rate hike. 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:44.440 You got the five percent bond market, meaning more pain 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:46.760 is heading everyone's way. We just talked about that with 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:51.240 remaining Katie, and then treasuries sliding as jobs beat makes 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:54.160 another hike a coin to us. I feel like we 0:00:54.240 --> 0:00:56.040 keep going back and forth, right when it comes to 0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:57.080 what's the Fed do next? 0:00:57.240 --> 0:01:00.640 Right, and whether or not we're headed for ace landing 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:01.600 or hard landing. 0:01:01.680 --> 0:01:03.959 Carol, exactly, all right, So to talk about it all 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:07.000 the day's trade, the week's trade, and the news. Bloomberg 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:10.199 Intelligence Chief US Interest rates strategist Iri Jersey on ZUM 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:13.200 New Jersey and also with us Bloomberg News Economics editor 0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:16.880 Mollie Smith and Molly just quickly we talked about a 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:21.000 little bit with our TV colleagues Bloomberg, TV, Radio, online, everywhere. 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:24.280 The terminal have been all over today's jobs report. But 0:01:24.319 --> 0:01:26.319 what are some of the highlights and what you think 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:28.959 the street and the Fed is paying most attention to. 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:33.920 I mean, yeah, the headline number obviously was kind of frightening. 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:35.840 You know, when we first saw it was like, wait, 0:01:35.880 --> 0:01:38.959 did I see us ride three thirty six, you know, 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:42.160 above well above all estimates in the Bloomberg survey and 0:01:43.000 --> 0:01:46.039 also the sizeable revisions to the prior two months, So 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:49.360 that was really just a bullish line across the board, 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:52.400 especially seeing so many of the recent jobs reports have 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:56.280 been the opposite. We've seen big, big downward revisions in 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:59.040 prior months, and I think it was just really impressive 0:01:59.080 --> 0:02:01.840 in terms of like the base nature of hiring. You know, 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:06.200 it wasn't particularly concentrated anywhere, seeing the unemployment rate held 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:10.320 at the same level, and wages also not so exciting, 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:12.760 So it was yeah, I think just like the payrolls 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:14.959 number was really by far and away the big story here. 0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:19.080 I wanted to bring you into this conversation because, especially 0:02:19.160 --> 0:02:22.760 when we're looking at what's happening in the bond market, 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:24.720 what do you make of this as far as the 0:02:24.760 --> 0:02:27.200 speed in which we've continued to see bond year olds 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:28.240 climb from here. 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:32.360 Yeah, liquidity is not great, but you know, really a 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:34.520 lot of this was positioning. So you had a lot 0:02:34.520 --> 0:02:37.160 of people back in the summer, you know, talk about 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:41.600 June July August timeframe when a lot of strategists and 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:45.120 then real money managers were getting long duration, so they 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:48.000 were buying ten year notes, thirty year bonds and those 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:50.840 sectors in the anticipation that the FED was going to 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:53.520 be done. And usually when the FED is done hiking, 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:57.079 the long end of the market does really well from 0:02:57.120 --> 0:03:00.639 a total return perspective. But what's happened now is that 0:03:00.720 --> 0:03:03.320 with the turn in the data the last six or 0:03:03.320 --> 0:03:06.240 eight weeks, you've seen and haven't seen the slowing that 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:09.200 I think most people had been anticipating. You have a 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:11.280 lot of people in bad positions and then you so 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:14.080 they wind up stopping themselves out. There were some really 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:16.880 important technical levels that got broken last week, and as 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:20.320 those got broken, you then had stops that got hit. 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:22.840 So a lot of this move was part of this 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:25.760 move was technical in the positioning piece of it. But 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:29.840 I think a big piece is just a reimagination. Imagining 0:03:29.880 --> 0:03:31.440 of what the Federal Reserve is going to do and 0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:34.000 what the FED does next. I don't think matters very much. 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:36.880 It's more what is the FED going to do next, next, next? 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:38.800 So what is it going to do in late twenty 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:42.240 twenty four, twenty twenty five, We've now priced out a 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:44.840 lot of the cuts that had been priced into the market, 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:48.760 you know, even after you had still had about sixty 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:51.560 base points of cuts priced in after the FED meeting 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:54.960 last month. Now those are you know, now people are saying, well, hey, 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:57.280 maybe they won't actually cut interest rates. 0:03:57.440 --> 0:03:59.400 So at this point, if I've bled's futures, are saying 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:00.680 no cuts next year. 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:05.240 Just about yeah. So you know, it depends on if 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:07.760 there's a hike or not. Right, so, good things. If 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:09.760 they hike again and then yes, there's a cut priced end. 0:04:09.800 --> 0:04:11.480 If they don't. If they don't hike, then there's no 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:12.640 price a cut price end. 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:12.840 Right. 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:16.120 So but basically you're talking about interest rates not doing 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:18.040 very much in the very front end of the curve 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:22.120 over the next fifteen months. Or so, and because of that, 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:25.320 the whole yield curve has had to reprice, so you have, 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:27.359 you know, five year notes need to be closer to 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:31.440 five percent, and so do ten year notes, just because 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:34.760 if you average out what the policy rate's going to 0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:37.240 be over the next ten years, that's come up quite 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:40.159 a bit. Interestingly, Carol, I was just looking at this 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:43.599 earlier today. If you look at what the market thinks 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:45.120 the ten year notees going to be, so you look 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:49.840 at the fifteen month forward tenure rate, that is exactly 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:53.320 where we are today, four point eight percent. So the 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:56.640 market seems to think now right now that there's going 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:58.320 to be very little movement in the long end of 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:00.440 the curve. Is that going to happen? No, it's not. 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:00.800 So. 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:02.279 That means that there's going to be a lot of 0:05:02.279 --> 0:05:04.919 relative value and trades to do. But it might be 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:07.120 a little bit early to try to think about exactly 0:05:07.200 --> 0:05:10.080 getting long because of the full momentum in the market 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:11.600 and the good economic data. 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:13.320 Molly, I want to bring you back in here, because 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:15.880 the economic data from day to day can can re 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:21.320 create or you know, it's like a whole new think 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:25.359 among the investing public or traders about what happens, and 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:27.920 I just wonder, you know, here we are digesting an 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:31.680 important data point, but I do wonder we've got inflation 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:35.800 next week. Could could sentiment change much, you know from 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:38.600 what we heard from IRA Oh absolutely. 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:40.240 I mean, take a look at what happened this week. 0:05:40.279 --> 0:05:42.040 You know, there was a bit of a relief rally 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:45.280 on Wednesday after the ADP data showed a really weak 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:48.240 private payrolls print, and then two days later, you know, 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:51.080 gangbusters on the government shops reports. So you can see 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:54.000 it's really a very pickle environment right now, and it 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:56.680 doesn't take a whole lot to move the needle. I 0:05:56.720 --> 0:05:59.960 mean in terms of next week coming up. Obviously CP 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:03.560 is going to be the big highlight later in the week. 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:07.760 We also have producer price index before that, you know, 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:10.800 maybe you know you miss inflation expectations if that loves 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:12.560 the needle in anything. And of course we get the 0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:15.520 Fed minutes as well, so all of those some good 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:17.320 data points. Look go ahead to hey. 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:19.440 Mollie when it comes to what we're seeing with the 0:06:19.480 --> 0:06:22.440 wage pressures ease in here, how much of that today 0:06:22.800 --> 0:06:25.679 was part of offsetting maybe some of the labor market 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:29.040 strength that people maybe would have been concerned about there. 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:33.159 I mean, it's it's a little bit tough because like 0:06:33.240 --> 0:06:35.920 you can't really compare this with the Jewel support because 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:38.279 it's not the same month. But if you were to 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:40.680 look at it at the value of you know, you know, 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:44.800 job openings going up by a ton and then wages 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:47.640 coming down a little bit, like that would make sense, right, 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:49.840 you know, like that workers like maybe you don't have 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:54.840 as much leverage here, you know that there's that there's 0:06:54.839 --> 0:06:57.320 so many job openings right now, or that they can 0:06:58.040 --> 0:06:59.840 they do have a lot of choice actually in that 0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:02.600 So it's I mean, but yeah, like I said, it's 0:07:02.640 --> 0:07:04.320 you know, it's two different months. It's a little tough 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:07.560 to square the two here. But I mean, at least, 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:09.800 like I think the FED will probably you know, if 0:07:09.800 --> 0:07:12.440 there is some positive takeaway from this report to see 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:15.320 a more modest number on the wage side, that is 0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:18.000 certainly a good one for them. 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:20.640 We've talked a lot about five percent, but we've also heard, 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:23.040 you know, various individuals talk about six percent or seven 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:27.160 percent when it comes to US yields. Is that Are 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:30.520 you ruling that out yet? In terms of your analysis 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:32.400 and research, a. 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:36.080 Seven percent would be pretty astounding six. See, I can 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:38.640 create a realistic scenario where we get to six percent, 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:41.960 but I think that would require a reacceleration of inflation 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:45.400 and the Federal Reserve to start hiking rates more. It's 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:48.160 hard to see at this point how the market is 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:51.400 going to price for a steeper yield curve. So let's 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:54.560 say that the Fed does nothing right now, a significantly 0:07:55.120 --> 0:07:58.200 upward sloping yield curve in an environment where you don't 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:02.000 have accelerating inflation. So I could see a flat yield curve, right. 0:08:02.040 --> 0:08:05.239 I can see a scenario where we wind up getting 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:07.680 a completely flat yield curve at five and a quarter percent, 0:08:07.960 --> 0:08:10.200 But the market's always going to be pricing for the 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:12.880 Fed snacks move at some point, right, So it could 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:15.480 be that the market prices for the Fed not to 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:18.440 cut interest rates until twenty twenty six. But even if 0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:20.840 it does, then that still means that you're going to 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:23.440 have ten year yields need to be below the overnight rate, 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:25.560 and so it's going to be hard I think, to 0:08:25.640 --> 0:08:29.160 get tenure yields up to six percent without the Fed hiking. 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:31.320 But that being said, you know, oil goes back to 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:33.760 over one hundred and you wind up with a reacceleration 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:36.520 in the labor market, and the next thing, you know, 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:39.120 you could wind up with the market pricing for interest 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:41.600 rate hikes and that could certainly push yields more than 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:44.320 nowhere near my base case scenario for sure. But that's 0:08:44.480 --> 0:08:46.360 but there is a realistic scenario where we get there. 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:48.800 What do you think ira would be the make or 0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:51.400 break level in the tenure treasury yield to really see 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:55.400 asset correct classes basically having to reprice, especially in the 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:56.600 stock market collapse. 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:59.920 Right, Well, I guess well that's a better question for 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:03.040 Geena Martin Adams are equity strategists, right, because I think 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:06.240 that comes more down to valuation. Right, So, if if 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:08.959 you look at what's been moving this market, though, it 0:09:09.000 --> 0:09:11.679 is there are tighter financial conditions. I think you mentioned 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:15.520 that a little bit earlier in this in the segment 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:19.280 where if this whole entire move has not been on 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:22.120 higher inflation expectations. So even though we had this blowout 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:25.959 jobs report, it wasn't that that inflation break evens and 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:28.520 the market's expectation of inflation moved up. It's all been 0:09:28.559 --> 0:09:31.360 in real yields, and real yields tend to move because 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:36.520 of tighter monetary policy, market volatility, and fiscal deficits, so 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:38.600 that that's in fact our model. Those are the three 0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:41.400 inputs to our model for ten year tips shields. Ten 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:44.000 year tips shields approaching two and a half percent, our 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:48.040 model says two point six percent, so reasonably close. But 0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:51.400 it's because in large part because of the expectations of 0:09:51.400 --> 0:09:54.040 what the Fed's going to do as well as the 0:09:54.200 --> 0:09:57.280 just the massive volatility we've had in treasury yields, and 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:00.439 investors want to be compensated for that volatiley and that 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:03.160 shows up in tips yields for sure. 0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:06.040 Hey, can you in thirty seconds your call him on 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.560 the six trillion dollars title wave in the treasury market. 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:10.080 What do we need to keep on our radar just 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:10.760 quickly if you could. 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:14.160 Yeah, So that's all about tea bills. There's still tee 0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:16.440 bill The amount of tea bills are going to need 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:18.040 to be issued over the next quarter is still going 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:20.120 to rise. So there's going to be plenty for money 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:23.120 market investors to supply for them to invest in. 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:26.880 That's good because there's demand out there anyway, as we know. Hey, guys, 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:28.960 thank you so much. I really appreciate it and have 0:10:28.960 --> 0:10:31.920 a great weekend, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US interest rates strategist 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:34.520 Ari Jersey out there on zoom in New Jersey, and 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:37.760 of course Bloomberg News Economics editor Molly Smith joining us 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:40.000 on the phone in New York City. Can find Molly 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:43.120 at Molly Smith News on Twitter, and you can certainly 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:45.839 catch Ira in his research and his team's research on 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.880 the Bloomberg. You are listening and watching Bloomberg Business Week 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:51.000 on this Friday, Carol Master along with just metten In 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:53.559 for Tim Stanevik, and this is Bloomberg. 0:10:56.000 --> 0:10:59.559 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.960 live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:07.040 Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:09.640 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:13.240 Nonfarm payrolls increased three hundred and thirty six thousand last month. 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:15.839 I feel like we shall get like headbands and caps 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.080 and T shirts because it really was a shocking number. 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:20.080 It's the most since the start of the year, after 0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:23.160 sizeable upward revisions to the prior two months, so that's 0:11:23.360 --> 0:11:26.080 it's not just this past month, it was the prior 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:30.560 months to September as well. A Bureau Labor Statistics Report 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:32.120 of course coming out with all of this earlier today, 0:11:32.120 --> 0:11:34.120 the unemployment rate, by the way, holding it three point 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:36.720 eight percent, wages rising at a modest pace, and maybe 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:39.360 that was some of what Colm folks down. So let's 0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:41.000 get to it. Back with us on a Job's Day, 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:44.320 Becky Frankwitz, she's Chief Commercial Officer in president North America 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:48.440 at Manpower Group. On zoom from Durham, North Carolina. Becky, 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:50.720 it is good to have you here with jessin myself. 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:52.800 So it was quite a strong report, kind of a 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:56.800 shocker when it first crossed. Was it a surprise to you? 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:01.280 Okay, it's a blockbuster report. I mean, Carol, what we're 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:04.520 seeing as employers as we go into the holiday season, 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:07.360 they really want to enter the first of the year 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.520 fully staffed. And so when you think about what Jobs 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:14.479 Report Friday really is, it's the match between open opportunities 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:17.160 and people and what they want to do, and so 0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:20.000 we're seeing that match increase. So it just shows the 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:24.920 resilience of an increasingly cost conscious American consumer. We saw 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:29.120 that because we saw services, leisure and hospitality go significantly 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:31.920 up almost one hundred thousand jobs out of all the 0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:35.120 jobs created over two hundred thousand. We're in services versus 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:38.440 durable goods, and so Americans are wanting to continue to 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:42.319 experience experiences and eating out, and that's why we're seeing 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:45.760 you know, companies like Dominoes fall into a top employer 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:50.319 from cost consciousness, Walmart, Dollar General following in the top employers, 0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:54.160 and so, you know, a very resilient yet cost conscious 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:55.080 American consumer. 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:59.040 So what industries are seeing the highest demand for labor 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:01.679 at this point versus those that are seeing the weakest. 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.320 Yeah, so this is a headline that hasn't necessarily been 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:09.400 covered today if you think about in real time data Jess, 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:11.320 and that's usually the view that we bring because we 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:14.920 can track bisector by day what's happening versus looking just 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.840 back at BLS as we look ahead. What we're seeing 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:22.000 today is warm up in holiday hiring and the heavyweight 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:25.720 holiday heroes is going to be operations and logistics. So 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:29.360 for the first time in three years we saw it 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.480 jobs fall out of the top three sectors. So it's 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:37.800 been medical sales. It now it is medical sales, and 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.079 think about sales is getting ready for the recovery in 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:42.720 the economy. So companies want to have a full sales team. 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:46.080 And now in the number three position is operations and logistics. 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:49.000 And how that's tied to holiday is we are seeing 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:51.959 more clicks than bricks from Americans as we go into 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:55.800 the holiday hiring period, and so Americans are shopping more online. 0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:58.079 You know a little bit they recovered from covid went 0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:01.679 out into retail last year. Thish we're seeing American shop online. 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:04.920 That's evidence by big headlines from Amazon, you know, hiring 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:08.040 one hundred thousand more workers than last year target hiring 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:11.160 one hundred thousand workers given their click and collect program. 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:15.079 So we have some optimism in the upcoming months. So 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:18.160 I'd say that's one of the standouts is logistics, and 0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:21.600 again medical continues to be in number one and number 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:23.200 two sales for the reasons I mentioned. 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:26.320 It's interesting. I mean, I don't know. Do you talk 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:28.360 to some of the companies that are posting or that 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:31.120 you're that are looking to hire. Is it because they 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:34.240 are doing more business there's demand out there? Is it 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:37.160 again that labor hoarding story at Becky? What is it? 0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:39.160 Because it's interesting to hear what you say about that 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:41.960 they want to kind of be stocked with workers heading 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:42.640 into the new year. 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:47.200 Yeah, so it's really I mean, Carol, it's actually not 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:52.240 very complicated. What's fueling our economy today is the confidence 0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:55.160 of the American consumer. We continue to spend, and as 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:58.000 long as we continue to spend, that generates demand. Again, 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:00.440 we're spending on services much more than good so keep 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:02.840 that in mind. But as long as we continue to spend, 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:05.880 it generates demand and companies are going to seek to 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:08.440 fill their open positions. Now, I want to be clear, 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:10.840 as we look at the job demand, which is what 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:14.880 fuels ultimately BLS, we have seen a little moderation month 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:18.040 over month, Carol. It came down about five percent month 0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:21.440 over month in terms of overall jobs created in the economy. 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:24.160 But you know, people say, hey, the fall weather's here, 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:26.760 the labor market's cooling, But I would tell you it's 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:27.600 not winter yet. 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:29.440 Hence the holiday hiring optimism. 0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:32.240 So what's really driving some of that optimism when it 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:33.960 does come to the holidays. 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:38.400 Yeah, it again, we as Americans now are are buying 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:41.560 more online. So in COVID, we didn't really have the 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:43.720 optionality we had to buy online, so you saw a 0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:47.560 significant increase in option logistics to fuel that During Covid. 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:50.800 Then we got to go back to stores, and so 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:54.480 last holiday season people went back into you know, shopping 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.360 malls and retail stores. And now we're seeing that moderate 0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:00.440 again to more click you know, and you also know 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:02.760 when you click, you tend to spend more. It's hard 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:05.600 to keep up with your basket if you will, across 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:06.560 multiple providers. 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:08.200 And so it's giving some optimism. 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:10.880 And we're seeing the traditional retailers again, I said, Amazon, 0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:13.840 but Target again with their click and collect program. They're 0:16:13.920 --> 0:16:16.320 hiring as well, so it's not limited just to the 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:17.160 online retailers. 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:20.120 Probably my husband's like slayer well babe with Amazon, right, 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:22.880 it's so easy. It's terrible because it's just like, oh 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:25.320 I want, I think I do. It's like crazy. But 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:28.000 it is interesting when you talk about logistics and getting 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:30.480 kind of gearing up for the holiday season. That makes 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:32.600 me think, though, they'll get through the holiday season and 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:34.280 let some of those folks go. I mean, are these 0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:37.760 full time positions. Are they getting all the benefits and 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:39.360 everything or is it temp. 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:42.840 Yeah, Carol, so this is seasonal. It happens every year, 0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:44.880 you know, if you're call Last year, you and I 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:47.600 talked about the fact that we weren't seeing the increase 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:49.720 that we thought we would, so last year was a 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:53.160 little bit of a different from the past. But this 0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:56.720 year we're seeing holiday hiring come back with strength, and 0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:58.880 it usually is people who want to get a second 0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:01.960 income to out their holiday shopping or someone who just 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:03.480 wants to go to work part time to get their 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:06.479 holiday shopping. So this is a fairly normal cadence for 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:09.520 the American economy. Again, last year was abnormal though, so 0:17:09.520 --> 0:17:13.719 it's very nice to feel some normalcy come back into 0:17:13.760 --> 0:17:14.240 the patterns. 0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:15.680 So, Beck, if you had to use a word or 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:19.199 two words to describe the labor market right now, what 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:19.720 would it. 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:22.840 Be, I'd say very tight. 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:25.600 It's very tight, and so we're seeing you know, it's 0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:28.800 taking forty four days on average, Carol to fill a job. 0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:31.399 That's very long. 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:34.040 That that's why employers get anxious because by the time 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:37.120 I get somebody through the process, if I can't speed that. 0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:39.320 Up, they may make another choice. And so, you know 0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:39.680 when you. 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:42.520 Said labor hoarding, it's different than it was where I'm 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:44.880 scared I can't hire people, but the time to hire 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:50.119 is taking so long, and it's causing employees to possibly 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:53.200 have other options and so that it's still a very 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:54.000 tight labor market. 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:55.280 You saw unemployment not move. 0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:55.640 Oh. 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:57.399 In one highlight that I want to point out that 0:17:57.480 --> 0:18:00.199 is a little bit concerning is we did see for 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:03.800 the first time in a long time, female participation drop 0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:07.040 only two tenths of a point. It's not alarming, but 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:09.679 it's the first time and it's very concerning. And if 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:13.159 you think about ops and logistics roles, they're over represented 0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:16.679 by men, and we cannot have another sheet session on 0:18:16.720 --> 0:18:19.800 our hands, and so I really want to watch that. 0:18:19.840 --> 0:18:20.960 I'll be watching that closely. 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:24.480 Hopefully the retail in store is that comes back a 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:27.000 bit offset some of that, But that's a little bit concerning. 0:18:27.160 --> 0:18:28.720 I don't like to see that number. 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:30.639 Any indication as to why we are seeing that. 0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:33.760 Yeah, so it's you know, there's a lot of headlines 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:36.840 around the childcare situation and what's going to happen the 0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:38.840 cliff that could possibly happen there. 0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:39.680 That's concerning. 0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:42.159 But I also think the mix and the economy is 0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:44.840 changing a bit as we see this growth in OPS 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:47.719 and logistics, and so that something for all of us 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:48.760 to keep a close eye on. 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:50.879 Hey, Becky, you mentioned forty four days on average to 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:53.000 fill a job. You said, that's very long. Is that 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:55.560 kind of where we were twenty nineteen. Give me a 0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:56.399 little perspective. 0:18:57.160 --> 0:18:59.680 Yeah, so no, it's taking much longer now to fill 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:01.359 a job, you know it is. 0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:03.919 So it's above what it was back in twenty nineteen, 0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:05.600