WEBVTT - John Heilemann, Greg Sargent & Dave Weigel

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<v Speaker 1>Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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<v Speaker 1>where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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<v Speaker 1>today's best minds. And Greg Abbott is defying the Supreme

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<v Speaker 1>Court and continuing to put up razor wire at the

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<v Speaker 1>Texas border. We have such a great show for you today.

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<v Speaker 1>The New Republic's Greg's sergeant stops by to talk to

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<v Speaker 1>us about how the media is covering the twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four election and it's many, many failures. Then we'll talk

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<v Speaker 1>to Semaphore's Dave Weigel about what's happening on the ground

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<v Speaker 1>in New Hampshire and Iowa and soon South Carolina. But

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<v Speaker 1>first we have NBC's National Affairs correspondent John Heilman. Welcome

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<v Speaker 1>back to Fast Politics. John Heilman.

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<v Speaker 2>Hi, I'm Molly John Fast. It's so great to be

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<v Speaker 2>here with you again. In the wake of boy I

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<v Speaker 2>guess what everybody thinks is like the end of the

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<v Speaker 2>Republican nominating contest. I guess you know that's probably that's

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<v Speaker 2>my insensible point of view about it. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>are you how are you feeling about the nation with

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump? Is another day back to a nominee of

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<v Speaker 2>the party. They're saying that if anybody right the checks

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<v Speaker 2>in Nicky Haley, they're going to be like putting a

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<v Speaker 2>concentration camp or something.

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<v Speaker 1>By the way, where I live in Manhattan, I know

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<v Speaker 1>so many people who are like who come to me

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<v Speaker 1>and they say, Mom, you know, I'm giving Nikki Haley

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<v Speaker 1>some incredible amount of money. And I say, the math

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<v Speaker 1>is not mathing. There's no world in which this works.

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<v Speaker 1>And they say, yeah, yeah, but something could happen.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, they're not wrong. I mean something could happen. The

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<v Speaker 2>thing that this has reminded me of in the last

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<v Speaker 2>couple of days is two thousand and eight and the

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<v Speaker 2>twenty sixteen Democratic nomination flights, where after Super Tuesday, David

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<v Speaker 2>Luffle looked at all of the spreadsheets and was like,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, a world of proportional allocation of delegates, there's

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<v Speaker 2>no world which Hillary Clinton can now come back. And

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<v Speaker 2>they started making this argument about the math that would

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<v Speaker 2>try to convince reporters. They were pretty good. They were

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<v Speaker 2>good at and they were right. I mean it was like,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, they would say, she would have to win,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the remaining contests sixty five to thirty five,

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<v Speaker 2>and there's no record for winning anything suscebout thirty five

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<v Speaker 2>and so there's no world in which she's going to

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<v Speaker 2>wait all the contests, and there's no math that makes

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<v Speaker 2>it as it makes sense. And the Clintons, who are

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<v Speaker 2>widely described as deluded at this point, were always kind

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<v Speaker 2>of like, well, something could happen, you know, they could

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<v Speaker 2>find the they could find the Whitey tape with Brot

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<v Speaker 2>with Michelle Obama trashing white people. They could find something

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<v Speaker 2>that will destroy back Obama, and you'd be like, well,

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<v Speaker 2>you guys are out of your mind. And then in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty sixteen, if you want to turn this around for

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<v Speaker 2>different ideological purposes, it's like there was a moment that

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<v Speaker 2>came we're Bernie. In the last couple months of that campaign,

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<v Speaker 2>I had had conversations with him aout it. I'd say,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, you would have to win seventy five percent

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<v Speaker 2>of the popular boat in the remaining races to be

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<v Speaker 2>able to come into that commention with the same number

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<v Speaker 2>of delegates as Hilary exliner are more you know, what

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<v Speaker 2>are you doing? His answer was really, I'm leading a

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<v Speaker 2>movement and I can't let go, and his I'm saying

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<v Speaker 2>he didn't say that quite that way. But that was

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<v Speaker 2>the truth of the thing, and his advisors were like,

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<v Speaker 2>we're trying to accumulate delegates, so we have a leverage

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<v Speaker 2>of the convention. People find various reasons to go on,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think is deluded as the as the Clintons were,

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<v Speaker 2>that they were going to find some devastating piece of

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<v Speaker 2>new information that was going to make Barack Obama unelectable

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<v Speaker 2>or completely disqualify him. You know it's Donald Trump if

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<v Speaker 2>you're around Nicky Haley and you have the money to

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<v Speaker 2>go on because as you as you know, well, no

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<v Speaker 2>one quits a presidential race because they're losing. They quit

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<v Speaker 2>a presidential race because the money drives up. If you

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<v Speaker 2>have the money, I will see whether that continues to

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<v Speaker 2>be the case for her. If you have the money

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<v Speaker 2>and you're headed to your home state, and you know,

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<v Speaker 2>people could tell you all day long about how the

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<v Speaker 2>party down, there's maga, there's some more Republicans that all

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<v Speaker 2>the democractics, the maths definitely against her. Donald Trump is

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<v Speaker 2>the all but certain nominee. But it's Donald Trump, right,

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<v Speaker 2>He's legal problems, He's got all.

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<v Speaker 1>These things that are ninety one counts.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, Eddie's got the and some of these trials, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>potentially will start at least potentially Wilson begin not end

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<v Speaker 2>well in the in this period. Is there a chance,

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<v Speaker 2>given the way the chaotic, hectic, shambalic crazy asked way

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<v Speaker 2>that Donald Trump's public life has unfolded, is there a

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<v Speaker 2>chance that something could happen that would break the race

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<v Speaker 2>open in.

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<v Speaker 3>A certain way. There's a chance.

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<v Speaker 2>And to me, it's sort of like not nobody should

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<v Speaker 2>be like, yeah, I think Nicka Haley's really got a shot.

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<v Speaker 2>That's not really the point. The point more is that,

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<v Speaker 2>like if clear, she's in his head that thing on

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<v Speaker 2>Tuesday night. We talked about it on TV on Wednesday morning.

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<v Speaker 2>But I was at her without a concession speak out

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<v Speaker 2>to victory of becha, I am going to the day

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<v Speaker 2>of the race speech up and conquered on Tuesday night.

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<v Speaker 2>And she was better in that speech that I think

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<v Speaker 2>I may have ever seen her in terms of her

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<v Speaker 2>projection of confidence, ease in herself, sense of life. She

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<v Speaker 2>did not seem like a candidate who was trying to

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<v Speaker 2>put on a brave face. She read to me like

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<v Speaker 2>a candidate who was like I've kind of found my

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<v Speaker 2>groove here I'm not probably probably in denial about the

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<v Speaker 2>ultimate likely outcome here. But as long as she has

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<v Speaker 2>cut someone who's willing to give her money, and as

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<v Speaker 2>long as she's got the guts, I do stay guts

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<v Speaker 2>to risk a loss in her home state that could

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<v Speaker 2>really leave a mark on her politically forever. As long

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<v Speaker 2>as she's got those two things, you know, why not?

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<v Speaker 2>Four years ago Joe Biden gave basically that same speech

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<v Speaker 2>on the night in New Hampshire. He finished fourth and

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<v Speaker 2>iow at fits New Hampshire and he said, there's only

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<v Speaker 2>two states that have voted. Let the country speak. Why

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<v Speaker 2>do we have to shut this down right now? I'm

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<v Speaker 2>going to go on and I want to take this

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<v Speaker 2>to bigger and more diverse states. I just don't see

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<v Speaker 2>why if you thought that was okay for Joe Biden's tate,

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<v Speaker 2>that pussure, why you wouldn't think it was okay Nikki

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<v Speaker 2>Elia wants to she has the money and she's willing

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<v Speaker 2>to take the risk. Why would anybody not want to

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<v Speaker 2>see her out there prosecuting some case against Donald Trump?

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<v Speaker 2>If those things are true, and only these two little

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<v Speaker 2>small states in voted.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, and I think that's right and I think that

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<v Speaker 1>it's a really good point. And I happen to have

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<v Speaker 1>written a piece on the Washington Post opinion page that

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<v Speaker 1>was published quite largely that said that Joe Biden should

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<v Speaker 1>drop out because he wasn't going away, probably one of

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<v Speaker 1>the longest I have ever been in my political career.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that you have a really good point. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>Devil's Advocate is that for the last eight years, we

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<v Speaker 1>have all sort of engaged in group hallucination that Donald

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<v Speaker 1>that something might happen to Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>But this is why I say, let us not engage.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm the laws person to engage in a wish casting

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm not like some big McKy haliy fan. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not sitting here saying she should stay in because she

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<v Speaker 2>has a good chance, or she should stay in because

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<v Speaker 2>she has a reasonable chance. I think she has virtually

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<v Speaker 2>no chance, and in the end, there's some harm in

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<v Speaker 2>her going forward if that's the choice she wants to make.

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<v Speaker 2>I kind of applaud her for wanting to stay in

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<v Speaker 2>and make again some sort of case against someone who

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<v Speaker 2>you know is all the things that we know Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump is, and I know a lot of people you

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<v Speaker 2>know who would have said to me in the last

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<v Speaker 2>and maybe this would be a controversial point of view.

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<v Speaker 2>But the Democrats who really want to stop Donald Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>who said I don't know I should feel about Nikki

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<v Speaker 2>Haley eight because I think that this is their assertions.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of people feel this way. I think she

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<v Speaker 2>would be tougher for Joe Biden to beat than Trump

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<v Speaker 2>will be. But I also note that if like Trump's

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<v Speaker 2>the nominee, there's something around the fifty to fifty chance

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<v Speaker 2>that he'll be the next president. And so I don't

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<v Speaker 2>know what to do about this. Nicky Haley would be

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<v Speaker 2>too conservative for my taste as president. She might be

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<v Speaker 2>better at student to beat Biden. Do I really want

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<v Speaker 2>to take that risk?

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<v Speaker 3>Should I?

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<v Speaker 2>How should I play this? If I'm playing it just

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<v Speaker 2>terms of game theory, and my thing is like, if

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<v Speaker 2>you're one of these people, and I myself in this camp,

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<v Speaker 2>for sure, I guess taking to someone who's never cast

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<v Speaker 2>a vote in potential election, but as someone who's covered them,

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<v Speaker 2>I do put myself in the camp of I'm on

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<v Speaker 2>team democracy, right, And if you're one of these people

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<v Speaker 2>who walks around saying Donald Drum is an existential threat

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<v Speaker 2>to American democracy, including on the Biden campaign, Like what's

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<v Speaker 2>your real principled argument in which you'd say Nicki Haley

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<v Speaker 2>should drop out? Because what if the argument is, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>this is an existential threat to democracy Donald Trump. Why

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<v Speaker 2>shouldn't anybody who's trying to take the fight to Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump who's not just another autocrat, which I don't think

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<v Speaker 2>anybody think they say Nicki Haley is. You might think

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<v Speaker 2>she's too conservative, but no one thinks she's that. She's

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<v Speaker 2>like missus Hitler. It's like, why would you not? Why

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<v Speaker 2>are you not for anybody who's like leaving it all

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<v Speaker 2>in the field and trying to keep Cheetah Mussolini from

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<v Speaker 2>a retaking power. But don't get that confused with thinking, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>she's got a chance. You know, It's like she's not

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<v Speaker 2>a good chance. Like let's put all of our eggs

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<v Speaker 2>in the Nicki Haley basket. She's looks likely to get

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<v Speaker 2>creamed in South Carolina if she lasts even that law.

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<v Speaker 2>The numbers would say she'll probably get beaten pretty stilely

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<v Speaker 2>in her home state, and then it will then I think,

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<v Speaker 2>probably be over because the money will up and she

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<v Speaker 2>probably won't be too humiliated to go forward, but why

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<v Speaker 2>not spend one more month here and sort of see

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<v Speaker 2>how it plays out in terms of her attractions she

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<v Speaker 2>gets and and what might happen to him? And again

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<v Speaker 2>not like kind of wish upon a star, but just like, hey,

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<v Speaker 2>like what's the dump side? That's ice my feeling about it.

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<v Speaker 2>And I will say one last thing about the difference

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<v Speaker 2>between the Biden thing, the one thing that Biden people

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<v Speaker 2>will tell you that I have to give them just

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<v Speaker 2>say it out loud. They would say, well, even though

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<v Speaker 2>Joe Biden has become coming fourth in Iowa and comes

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<v Speaker 2>just in New Hampshire, there was a path for us

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<v Speaker 2>even then that doesn't exist for her in the data,

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<v Speaker 2>which was to say they were like, we had always

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<v Speaker 2>been in the number of one or number two positions

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<v Speaker 2>in South Carolina because we had a kind of popularity

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<v Speaker 2>with black voters, which is the key constituency of the

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<v Speaker 2>Democratic Party. We didn't know whether that would collapse after

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<v Speaker 2>Iowa New Hampshire. But we had a path in a way,

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<v Speaker 2>a theoretical path in a way that Nikki Hilly does

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<v Speaker 2>not right now. And that's true, But again that was

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<v Speaker 2>not his public argument. It was why are you trying

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<v Speaker 2>to shut down democracy. We've only had these two more

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<v Speaker 2>states voted, so let's hear from some more people. And

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<v Speaker 2>I think if you basically buy that, you know, you've

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<v Speaker 2>got to kind of apply it both to Haley and

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<v Speaker 2>to Biden in the same way.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, Nikki Haley is serving the same purpose

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<v Speaker 1>that George Conway is and that Egene Carroll is right.

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<v Speaker 1>They're driving Donald Trump crazy.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, And if you believe if you look at all

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<v Speaker 2>this data that we've seen now out of Iowa and

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<v Speaker 2>New Hampshire, which is people are finding different ways and

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<v Speaker 2>angles into it. I'm with Joe Scarro on the you know,

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<v Speaker 2>if Barack Obama ran the Iowa caucuses in twenty sixteen

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<v Speaker 2>after he was on his way out presidency, if he

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<v Speaker 2>ran the Ilocacca's third time as an incumbent quasi company

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<v Speaker 2>he came back, now, you know, he'd get ninety percent

0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:39.760
<v Speaker 2>of the Democratic votes. It is striking that Trump is

0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:42.440
<v Speaker 2>kind of just a little over fifty with the voting

0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:45.000
<v Speaker 2>electorates that he's had. There is a lot of those

0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:47.880
<v Speaker 2>people who voted against him, Republicans who voted against him.

0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:50.360
<v Speaker 2>Although in New Hampshire twenty five percent of them who did.

0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:52.760
<v Speaker 2>A lot of those people will end up voting for

0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:55.400
<v Speaker 2>him in the general election, but not all. And to

0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:58.640
<v Speaker 2>the extent that Nikki Haley is out there publicly in

0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:02.560
<v Speaker 2>front of Republican audience, on Republican media in other places,

0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:10.280
<v Speaker 2>highlighting his increasingly aduled mental state, his increasingly obvious unsuitability, unfitness,

0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:13.960
<v Speaker 2>inability to just mentally handle the job. Again, if you

0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:16.360
<v Speaker 2>think he's an existential threat to democracy, She's gonna have

0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:18.720
<v Speaker 2>a big public platform for the next month or harberlonga

0:10:18.800 --> 0:10:22.040
<v Speaker 2>she states in if she changes five Republican voters' minds

0:10:22.080 --> 0:10:23.720
<v Speaker 2>over the course of the next month. From my point

0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:27.320
<v Speaker 2>of view, she making an important argument. Diana, Yes, Diana,

0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:28.040
<v Speaker 2>exactly right.

0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:30.400
<v Speaker 1>This was I thought a little bit shitty of her.

0:10:30.559 --> 0:10:35.360
<v Speaker 1>There were so many Democrats and also never Trump Republicans

0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:37.959
<v Speaker 1>or not Democrats, but New Hampshire's estate with a lot

0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:41.680
<v Speaker 1>of undeclared voters. A lot of those undeclared voters voted

0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:44.800
<v Speaker 1>for her, maybe not so much because they loved her,

0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:48.480
<v Speaker 1>but because they saw Trump as an existential threat to democracy,

0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:51.920
<v Speaker 1>as we all do. And she then was sort of

0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:55.600
<v Speaker 1>not so grateful for it. But I do think that

0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:56.760
<v Speaker 1>makes your point.

0:10:57.080 --> 0:10:58.520
<v Speaker 2>Was when you say she was not grateful for what

0:10:58.559 --> 0:11:00.680
<v Speaker 2>do you mean by that? I'm not challenging him. What

0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:01.680
<v Speaker 2>are you keying off of there?

0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:05.439
<v Speaker 1>She said something to the effect of something negative about

0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:09.000
<v Speaker 1>Democrats in the state, and I can't remember exactly what

0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:11.680
<v Speaker 1>it was. They were people who really went out of

0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:14.480
<v Speaker 1>their way, and maybe they didn't vote for her as

0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:16.080
<v Speaker 1>much as they voted against Trump.

0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:17.920
<v Speaker 2>Right, I don't know exactly what you're referring to, but

0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:21.240
<v Speaker 2>I will say this. You know, politics, as they say Plalie,

0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:23.760
<v Speaker 2>as you know, is not bean bag. And if you

0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:25.600
<v Speaker 2>were Nikki Haley and you wake up the day after

0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:27.840
<v Speaker 2>the dam sure primary and you see that Donald Trump

0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:31.679
<v Speaker 2>has beating you among Republicans by fifty points, and you

0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:35.880
<v Speaker 2>know that any chance was a one percent chance, infantestinal

0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:38.720
<v Speaker 2>chance to beat Donald Trump and and to go deep

0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:41.280
<v Speaker 2>into the primaries against him, because that never has to change.

0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:44.280
<v Speaker 2>Most of these primaries coming forward are just are just Republicans.

0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:46.360
<v Speaker 2>And if you get beat seventy five to twenty five

0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:48.760
<v Speaker 2>in other states among Republicans, I mean, you really are

0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:51.600
<v Speaker 2>look like kind of moron to go forward. So if

0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:54.000
<v Speaker 2>your fundamental political imperative going forward is how do I

0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:56.560
<v Speaker 2>get more Republicans to vote for me. There is some

0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:59.440
<v Speaker 2>political logic, even though it seems a little ungrateful and

0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:01.200
<v Speaker 2>maybe even more the little lollaigrateful, but there is some

0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:03.920
<v Speaker 2>political logic in trying to basically change is trying to

0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:06.880
<v Speaker 2>project the notion not that you're like shitting on Democrats

0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:09.040
<v Speaker 2>who voted for you, who decided to come out for

0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:12.360
<v Speaker 2>the primary, but that like, you can't allow yourself to

0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:15.760
<v Speaker 2>be cast in the minds of South Carolina Republicans as

0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:19.079
<v Speaker 2>the candidate of never Trump Democrats in New Hampshire, right,

0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:21.000
<v Speaker 2>and so the idea that you have some imperative to

0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:23.720
<v Speaker 2>rhetorically put some distance between yourself and those people who

0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:26.440
<v Speaker 2>supported you. I understand that. I mean again, I don't

0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:28.160
<v Speaker 2>you have to YEA, she could do it in a

0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:29.840
<v Speaker 2>shittier way or a less shitty way, but I at

0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:32.640
<v Speaker 2>least understand why she feels like she needs to not

0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.320
<v Speaker 2>basically wear the mantle of you. You can't walk out of

0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:37.480
<v Speaker 2>your Hampshire with a big, giant blue overcoat on, you know.

0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:39.360
<v Speaker 2>It's like, you know, with the big with the ad

0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:41.080
<v Speaker 2>on the back, and that's not going to help her

0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:42.680
<v Speaker 2>in her cause of beating Donald Trump.

0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:45.559
<v Speaker 1>It is interesting to me though, that Donald Trump is

0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:49.800
<v Speaker 1>threatening to blacklist mega donors who donate to Nikki Haley.

0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is a guy who really needs money,

0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:55.439
<v Speaker 1>and a lot of it he needs for his legal challenges.

0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:57.559
<v Speaker 2>Tim Miller and I did this interview with ann On

0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:00.160
<v Speaker 2>for the last episode in Out of Las bi Us

0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:01.839
<v Speaker 2>where he did this without with Cary Lake. This all

0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.800
<v Speaker 2>turned into a whole thing, but we're Bannon basically said

0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:08.440
<v Speaker 2>not basically, I mean really said, believing that and none

0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:10.800
<v Speaker 2>seeing the view that the twenty twenty election was stolen

0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:13.160
<v Speaker 2>is now a necessity a litmus test for being in

0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:15.200
<v Speaker 2>the MAGA movement, right. He was like, if you don't

0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:16.760
<v Speaker 2>believe that, if you want to test to that publicly,

0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:19.240
<v Speaker 2>you're out right. I tried to get carry Lake to

0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:21.160
<v Speaker 2>say on camera. I just kept asking you, this is

0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:23.200
<v Speaker 2>what our fight on camera about this. I was like,

0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.160
<v Speaker 2>will you just say, with Steve Bennis, is that your

0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:27.559
<v Speaker 2>review that if if you don't believe the twenty twenty

0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:29.120
<v Speaker 2>election was stolen, you're not a member of a good

0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:31.560
<v Speaker 2>standing up the Maga movement slash Republican Party. And she

0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:33.960
<v Speaker 2>because she has some sense of like what she's going

0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:35.000
<v Speaker 2>to need to do if she's going to be a

0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:38.200
<v Speaker 2>successful at Arizona, would not go that spar And the

0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:40.400
<v Speaker 2>reason I raised that whole thing is that there's a

0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:42.640
<v Speaker 2>flavor of this in a lot of things that are

0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:44.640
<v Speaker 2>coming out of them now, whether it's the things that

0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:48.240
<v Speaker 2>Marjorie Taylor Greenen said on stage on Tuesday or this

0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:51.160
<v Speaker 2>Trump thing about the donors, which is the purity test,

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:53.559
<v Speaker 2>the litmus test. And we're the opposite of a big

0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:57.360
<v Speaker 2>ten Republicanism. We are not interested in a broader and

0:13:57.440 --> 0:14:00.520
<v Speaker 2>broadening the coalition or welcoming Republicans who are on the fence,

0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.559
<v Speaker 2>Republicans who are for somebody else work for Like if

0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:05.880
<v Speaker 2>you're not in the cult, and not just in the cult,

0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 2>but like you know, someone who is like whatever, they

0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:10.440
<v Speaker 2>have the Scout rankings, so like you know, there's like

0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:12.240
<v Speaker 2>boy scout, you know. But if you're not like an eagle,

0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:14.839
<v Speaker 2>if you don't, we're like an eagle scout pin of maga.

0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:16.360
<v Speaker 2>You know, we don't want a part of you. In fact,

0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:18.000
<v Speaker 2>we're going to read you out of the party. There's

0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:20.040
<v Speaker 2>part of that that you look at and you go

0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:26.040
<v Speaker 2>that is worrying and dangerous and symptomatic of a kind

0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:30.000
<v Speaker 2>of fascist impulse and a cult impulse. And also the

0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:32.120
<v Speaker 2>way I look at it is it's just like politically

0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:35.360
<v Speaker 2>self defeating, because you know, in twenty twenty, Trump's and

0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:38.720
<v Speaker 2>his team surprised us all because we often we analysts,

0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:41.440
<v Speaker 2>by pundits whoever, we would often point out that it

0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:44.080
<v Speaker 2>between twenty seventeen and twenty twenty eight, Trump had done

0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:46.840
<v Speaker 2>nothing to expand his coalition, and we're like, how is

0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:50.720
<v Speaker 2>he ever going to win against the twenty twenty Democratic

0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:53.680
<v Speaker 2>nominee if he's brought no one in nobody who had

0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:56.080
<v Speaker 2>didn't vote from a twenty sixteen And they would say,

0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:58.080
<v Speaker 2>that's not where we're going to get our votes. We're

0:14:58.080 --> 0:14:59.920
<v Speaker 2>going to get our votes from people who are maga,

0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:02.280
<v Speaker 2>just didn't vote in twenty sixteen. We're going to go

0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:04.280
<v Speaker 2>out and find the voters who didn't. We're going to

0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:06.440
<v Speaker 2>turn those people out. And a lot of us were

0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:08.920
<v Speaker 2>skeptical and we were wrong. They found a lot of

0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:13.760
<v Speaker 2>those millions. There's but that is a population now that

0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:16.080
<v Speaker 2>I don't think there's anybody in Trump's world. It is

0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:20.400
<v Speaker 2>in his increasingly actual, real, sophisticated campaign. I don't think

0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 2>anybody who would say that there's a lot of untapped

0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:25.840
<v Speaker 2>from that boat total in twenty twenty, that there's a

0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:29.080
<v Speaker 2>ton millions more of Trump voters who didn't vote from

0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:31.240
<v Speaker 2>in sixty and didn't vote from in twenty, which means

0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:33.320
<v Speaker 2>that if you're going to beat Biden, you're going to

0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:36.760
<v Speaker 2>have to get some of voters, not necessarily from the middle,

0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:39.760
<v Speaker 2>but certainly like some of these mainstream Republican voters who

0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:41.480
<v Speaker 2>Trump is now saying, if you write a check to

0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:43.400
<v Speaker 2>Nikiy Hiley are out, you know we're going to send

0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:45.480
<v Speaker 2>you off to an internment camp. I just think like

0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:47.520
<v Speaker 2>that's not the way to win. It strikes me as

0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:53.200
<v Speaker 2>letting your cultish and authoritarian and autocratic and fascistic kind

0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:57.480
<v Speaker 2>of impulses overcome self interest in terms of putting together

0:15:57.600 --> 0:15:59.400
<v Speaker 2>the vote totals they're going to need in these in

0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.400
<v Speaker 2>these battlegrin states to actually beat Biden. Although you know,

0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:04.680
<v Speaker 2>someone who is being really conspiratorial could say it doesn't

0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:06.200
<v Speaker 2>really matter because they're just going to try to steal

0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:09.400
<v Speaker 2>the election by force anyway. But I think he's paying

0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:11.520
<v Speaker 2>himself into a corner. Both your point, which is he

0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:14.720
<v Speaker 2>needs the money, that's true, he also needs the votes

0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:17.440
<v Speaker 2>and Neither one of those things is terbed by reading

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:20.720
<v Speaker 2>the Riot Act, reading, you know, by expelling, expunging, purging

0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:24.640
<v Speaker 2>anybody who dares to utter a word of support from

0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:27.120
<v Speaker 2>bird braiding. I mean sarcastic when I say that bird

0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:29.200
<v Speaker 2>braid Nicki Haley or what does he call her down? Nimbre.

0:16:29.640 --> 0:16:31.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, he's back and forth between the two.

0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:33.680
<v Speaker 2>I liked what he had, Like he couldn't really get

0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:36.080
<v Speaker 2>nimrata out, so he went for like a slightly more

0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:38.440
<v Speaker 2>vaguely I'm not sure how that's even more big racist thing,

0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:40.720
<v Speaker 2>which is the Nimbre thing. And he says he Nimbre.

0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:42.520
<v Speaker 2>That's an email like to call her. I'm like, you know,

0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:44.760
<v Speaker 2>I think about the talking head song I Zimbra. I

0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 2>don't know this this weird.

0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:47.040
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much, John.

0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:49.800
<v Speaker 2>I hope you'll come back always, always, to the extent

0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:52.080
<v Speaker 2>that I'm physically able. I'm I'm always precious.

0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:59.160
<v Speaker 1>Greg Sargent is a reporter at The New Republic. Welcome

0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:02.920
<v Speaker 1>back to Fast Politics, my body.

0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:04.760
<v Speaker 3>Greg Sargent, Hey, how's it going.

0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:08.760
<v Speaker 1>We're delighted to have you here, but also excited because

0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:11.479
<v Speaker 1>you have a new home. Tell us a little bit

0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:11.879
<v Speaker 1>about that.

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:16.040
<v Speaker 3>Well, I left the Washington Post after fifteen years there,

0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:18.720
<v Speaker 3>and it was really a great ride. But now I'm

0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:21.920
<v Speaker 3>at the New Republic and I'm really psyched because it's

0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:24.400
<v Speaker 3>edited by Mike Tamaski, who's an old friend of mine

0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:26.919
<v Speaker 3>and is a brilliant guy and a great writer and editor.

0:17:27.320 --> 0:17:31.280
<v Speaker 3>And we are going to have a daily podcast at

0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:34.119
<v Speaker 3>the New Republic, and I really hope your listeners will

0:17:34.200 --> 0:17:35.359
<v Speaker 3>tune in and check it out.

0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:38.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we are big fans of the New Republic here

0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:42.600
<v Speaker 1>and also of Mike Tamaski. So let's talk for a

0:17:42.720 --> 0:17:48.919
<v Speaker 1>minute about this was the week of New Hampshire Joe Biden.

0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:52.200
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to like pause for a moment and remind

0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:55.760
<v Speaker 1>everyone of what happened last year, which is like a

0:17:55.800 --> 0:17:59.960
<v Speaker 1>million years ago. Biden decided not to have the Democratic

0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:03.520
<v Speaker 1>Party start its primary process in New Hampshire, a high

0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:08.480
<v Speaker 1>stake scambal really, because it meant that Biden was actually

0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:12.080
<v Speaker 1>not on the New Hampshire ballot. Can we talk about.

0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:14.640
<v Speaker 3>That, well, I mean it looked it obviously worked out

0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:17.719
<v Speaker 3>just fine. I think the big news on the Democratic

0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:21.159
<v Speaker 3>side out of last night is that the primary is

0:18:21.200 --> 0:18:23.080
<v Speaker 3>a big nothing burger. I mean, don't you think that.

0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:26.239
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, what I think is really interesting about it

0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:30.760
<v Speaker 1>was so Biden had made a promise to Representative Cliburn

0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:34.320
<v Speaker 1>of South Carolina and also, I would add to the

0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:39.159
<v Speaker 1>Democratic base which has been really saved by black women

0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:43.000
<v Speaker 1>and also people of color more generally. New Hampshire's a

0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:46.399
<v Speaker 1>very white state, and he had said, we're going to

0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:50.399
<v Speaker 1>make South Carolina go first, and New Hampshire was basically like,

0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:52.960
<v Speaker 1>fuck you, We're going to go first, and you're not

0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:55.000
<v Speaker 1>going to be on the ballot. You know, there was

0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:57.919
<v Speaker 1>a potential for a disaster here, and in fact, the

0:18:57.960 --> 0:19:00.560
<v Speaker 1>people who were hoping that there would be disaster were

0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:04.800
<v Speaker 1>Dean Phillips and Mary and Williamson went to New Hampshire

0:19:05.160 --> 0:19:07.639
<v Speaker 1>and decided that they were going to take advantage of

0:19:07.720 --> 0:19:10.840
<v Speaker 1>this opportunity, and they spent, you know, the last two

0:19:10.840 --> 0:19:14.840
<v Speaker 1>weeks in New Hampshire eating waffles, talking to the press,

0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:17.399
<v Speaker 1>and it didn't work out for them at all.

0:19:17.760 --> 0:19:21.520
<v Speaker 3>We often, as people who are obsessed to a very

0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:25.879
<v Speaker 3>profound pathological fault with the details of politics, we often

0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:30.040
<v Speaker 3>sort of admit to ourselves that regular people are not

0:19:30.200 --> 0:19:33.520
<v Speaker 3>paying attention to the details the way we are. Here's

0:19:33.560 --> 0:19:36.520
<v Speaker 3>a place where that's really true. Like, if you think

0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:40.520
<v Speaker 3>anyone out there who's normal unlike us, gives a shit

0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:46.480
<v Speaker 3>about primary schedules, you are wrong. Nobody cares about that stuff.

0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:50.080
<v Speaker 1>So Biden got about sixty seven percent of the vote.

0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:53.560
<v Speaker 1>He was the right in candidate, So that is like

0:19:53.800 --> 0:19:56.160
<v Speaker 1>pretty unbelievably spectacular.

0:19:56.560 --> 0:19:56.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:19:56.760 --> 0:19:59.320
<v Speaker 3>By the way, there's another thing here, right, which I

0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:01.920
<v Speaker 3>think we often get wrong. By we, I mean the

0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:06.840
<v Speaker 3>kind of collective commentariat or whatever, we constantly look at

0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:11.160
<v Speaker 3>this or that poll that seems to show dissension among Democrats, right,

0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:14.000
<v Speaker 3>But the bottom line, Biden is pretty popular with the

0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:16.600
<v Speaker 3>Democratic base. This is a hard thing for a lot

0:20:16.640 --> 0:20:19.280
<v Speaker 3>of pundits to admit, but it's just the truth.

0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:22.040
<v Speaker 1>Right, And in fact, during the New Hampshire primary, there

0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:25.280
<v Speaker 1>was a lot of punditry on CNN. I'm just going

0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:27.919
<v Speaker 1>to call it what it is that said that no

0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:30.440
<v Speaker 1>one wants Biden and that these two eighty year olds

0:20:30.520 --> 0:20:34.320
<v Speaker 1>are both as unpopular as each other, which again is

0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:40.359
<v Speaker 1>like it really is ultimately medium malpractice to compare a

0:20:40.359 --> 0:20:44.359
<v Speaker 1>guy with ninety one criminal counts to a guy who

0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:49.600
<v Speaker 1>has brought manufacturing back and is building chipsy They might

0:20:49.640 --> 0:20:52.320
<v Speaker 1>both be old but that's where it ends, and I

0:20:52.320 --> 0:20:54.080
<v Speaker 1>thought it was interesting. I'm just going to read you

0:20:54.119 --> 0:20:57.640
<v Speaker 1>this one tweet, which I think from Kyle Griffin, who's

0:20:57.680 --> 0:21:01.640
<v Speaker 1>a producer at MSNBC. Biden is on track to win

0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:04.560
<v Speaker 1>more votes in New Hampshire as a writing candidate than

0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:08.119
<v Speaker 1>Barack Obama did when he ran for reelection in twenty twelve,

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:11.760
<v Speaker 1>and Obama ran unopposed and was on the ballot.

0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:15.320
<v Speaker 3>There, wow, yeah, you see there you go right. I

0:21:15.359 --> 0:21:17.480
<v Speaker 3>want to say that I think the media worm is

0:21:17.560 --> 0:21:21.520
<v Speaker 3>turning a little bit. Yeah, explain so, as you say,

0:21:21.560 --> 0:21:24.439
<v Speaker 3>there was all this kind of media obsessing about how

0:21:24.480 --> 0:21:28.119
<v Speaker 3>there's some sort of equivalence between Trump and Biden in

0:21:28.160 --> 0:21:31.320
<v Speaker 3>the sense that, oh, they're both old, they're both despised.

0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:34.159
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I'm exaggerating a little. That wasn't quite what

0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:37.120
<v Speaker 3>the press said, but it was almost. But the real

0:21:37.400 --> 0:21:40.560
<v Speaker 3>truth of the matter is that what we're really seeing

0:21:40.600 --> 0:21:43.359
<v Speaker 3>in these primaries is that Republicans are the party with

0:21:43.440 --> 0:21:47.879
<v Speaker 3>the problem, and that Playbook actually got at this today

0:21:48.000 --> 0:21:54.080
<v Speaker 3>and they're kind of media I think that reporters and

0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:58.320
<v Speaker 3>commentators really pay close attention to what Playbook and Punchbowl

0:21:58.560 --> 0:22:03.040
<v Speaker 3>and all those news news or sheets say, and they said,

0:22:03.359 --> 0:22:06.440
<v Speaker 3>the story out of the exit polls is that Republicans

0:22:06.480 --> 0:22:10.200
<v Speaker 3>are the party that's divided and suffering from dissension. I mean, look,

0:22:10.400 --> 0:22:14.639
<v Speaker 3>it's actually starting to dawn on people that a fairly

0:22:15.200 --> 0:22:20.440
<v Speaker 3>non trivial swath of Republican and GOP leaning independent voters

0:22:20.480 --> 0:22:24.400
<v Speaker 3>actually thinks it's a problem to have a criminalized the nominee, right,

0:22:24.480 --> 0:22:27.359
<v Speaker 3>which you would think that people would have figured that

0:22:27.440 --> 0:22:30.800
<v Speaker 3>one out earlier. But there's just this weird built in

0:22:30.920 --> 0:22:34.919
<v Speaker 3>tendency in our discourse which just kind of treats Trump

0:22:34.960 --> 0:22:39.440
<v Speaker 3>as invincible. Everything makes him stronger. He's using the trials

0:22:39.480 --> 0:22:42.800
<v Speaker 3>to reach voters, He's owning us all with all these

0:22:42.880 --> 0:22:46.600
<v Speaker 3>clever maneuvers. He's got us all completely baffled at has

0:22:46.720 --> 0:22:49.639
<v Speaker 3>continued iron grip on the party, that sort of stuff,

0:22:49.760 --> 0:22:52.399
<v Speaker 3>and it's smoking mirrors a lot of it. We're going

0:22:52.480 --> 0:22:54.720
<v Speaker 3>to be talking a lot like this on the podcast,

0:22:54.760 --> 0:22:56.160
<v Speaker 3>by the way, a lot of meeting.

0:22:56.359 --> 0:22:59.240
<v Speaker 1>I'm a New Republic podcast with Greg Sargent.

0:23:00.080 --> 0:23:00.159
<v Speaker 3>No.

0:23:00.240 --> 0:23:02.240
<v Speaker 1>I think that's a really good point. And the thing

0:23:02.320 --> 0:23:06.840
<v Speaker 1>that I am just completely struck by is, yeah, Trump

0:23:06.880 --> 0:23:10.440
<v Speaker 1>has this power, but also Trump, you know, the mainstream

0:23:10.480 --> 0:23:13.760
<v Speaker 1>media is just obsessed with letting Trump get away with it.

0:23:14.000 --> 0:23:15.600
<v Speaker 3>We had a great peace on that recently.

0:23:15.720 --> 0:23:17.440
<v Speaker 1>Oh thank you there.

0:23:17.280 --> 0:23:21.080
<v Speaker 3>About the press just really not being up to this moment.

0:23:21.000 --> 0:23:23.160
<v Speaker 1>It's so depressing. I mean, I have to say there's

0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:27.600
<v Speaker 1>nothing that there is literally absolutely nothing about it that

0:23:27.680 --> 0:23:31.919
<v Speaker 1>doesn't just make me so upset. So let's talk for

0:23:31.960 --> 0:23:35.440
<v Speaker 1>a minute about what the Republican primary looks like. There

0:23:35.520 --> 0:23:41.720
<v Speaker 1>was a lot of excitement about Nikki Haley. I, as

0:23:41.760 --> 0:23:44.400
<v Speaker 1>a person who live in New York City and am

0:23:44.480 --> 0:23:48.840
<v Speaker 1>surrounded by people who are text cut enthusiasts, had this

0:23:48.920 --> 0:23:51.320
<v Speaker 1>moment where they were like, Nikki Haley is going to

0:23:51.440 --> 0:23:54.640
<v Speaker 1>be our savior, and I was like, you guys, the

0:23:54.680 --> 0:23:58.679
<v Speaker 1>math is not mathing. So Nikki Haley came in third

0:23:58.720 --> 0:24:04.240
<v Speaker 1>in Iowa, came in second in New Hampshire, and Donald

0:24:04.280 --> 0:24:06.000
<v Speaker 1>Trump got to give it to him. He had a

0:24:06.000 --> 0:24:09.480
<v Speaker 1>good point. She didn't come in second, She came in last.

0:24:09.600 --> 0:24:14.400
<v Speaker 3>Right, although I do think her showing was significantly stronger

0:24:14.440 --> 0:24:17.280
<v Speaker 3>than Trump himself expected it to be. And that matter,

0:24:17.520 --> 0:24:20.000
<v Speaker 3>and he was just he was yet again melting down

0:24:20.040 --> 0:24:22.200
<v Speaker 3>about it in spectacular fashion.

0:24:22.480 --> 0:24:25.000
<v Speaker 1>For sure, he was absolutely melting down about it. And

0:24:25.040 --> 0:24:28.520
<v Speaker 1>the polls were wrong again, right, Like the polls showed

0:24:28.560 --> 0:24:31.000
<v Speaker 1>that she was losing by fifty points and she lost

0:24:31.080 --> 0:24:31.879
<v Speaker 1>by whatever.

0:24:32.280 --> 0:24:34.480
<v Speaker 3>Such an important point that the polls got that wrong.

0:24:34.600 --> 0:24:36.640
<v Speaker 3>They're getting it wrong on Trump's strength.

0:24:37.000 --> 0:24:39.800
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and again this is another important point though, I

0:24:39.880 --> 0:24:41.840
<v Speaker 1>did think about last night, which was you had a

0:24:41.880 --> 0:24:45.440
<v Speaker 1>lot of independence and some Democrats switch parties and switch back, right,

0:24:45.520 --> 0:24:49.520
<v Speaker 1>you can switch parties. Their a lot of unaffiliated voters

0:24:49.680 --> 0:24:53.800
<v Speaker 1>in New Hampshire, and a lot of them really came

0:24:53.840 --> 0:24:56.159
<v Speaker 1>in to stop Trump and that was their goal. And

0:24:57.080 --> 0:25:00.520
<v Speaker 1>there was voters switch in. Then Nikki Haley was you

0:25:00.880 --> 0:25:04.280
<v Speaker 1>came after them, which I thought was an odd move.

0:25:04.880 --> 0:25:07.320
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. And there's something else about the independent vote that

0:25:07.359 --> 0:25:10.040
<v Speaker 3>I think is really important to underscore, which is that

0:25:10.440 --> 0:25:14.760
<v Speaker 3>the exit polls in New Hampshire showed that nearly half

0:25:14.000 --> 0:25:18.720
<v Speaker 3>of voters in the GOP primary. Now this is loaded

0:25:18.800 --> 0:25:23.400
<v Speaker 3>up with independence and maybe even others, but that's important, right,

0:25:23.440 --> 0:25:26.800
<v Speaker 3>because nearly half of the voters on the GOP primary

0:25:27.119 --> 0:25:29.359
<v Speaker 3>said that if Trump is convicted of a crime, he'll

0:25:29.359 --> 0:25:32.840
<v Speaker 3>be unfit to serve nearly half. And there's a number

0:25:32.880 --> 0:25:35.679
<v Speaker 3>that I still think of as extremely important. From the

0:25:35.720 --> 0:25:37.440
<v Speaker 3>recent Washington Post poll.

0:25:37.680 --> 0:25:39.960
<v Speaker 1>These are from the exit polls. I want to add

0:25:39.960 --> 0:25:42.680
<v Speaker 1>that exit polling tends to be a little more accurate

0:25:43.119 --> 0:25:45.000
<v Speaker 1>than calling people on the phone.

0:25:45.400 --> 0:25:48.960
<v Speaker 3>Right, It's really important that nearly half of GOP primary

0:25:49.000 --> 0:25:52.720
<v Speaker 3>voters said that they'd see Trump as unfit if he's convicted.

0:25:52.960 --> 0:25:54.640
<v Speaker 3>And by the way, what I was going to say

0:25:54.680 --> 0:25:57.720
<v Speaker 3>is the Washington Post pole, the most recent one had

0:25:57.960 --> 0:26:02.280
<v Speaker 3>fifty seven percent of independent nationally saying that they believe

0:26:02.320 --> 0:26:05.320
<v Speaker 3>the prosecutions are Trump of Trump are lawful as opposed

0:26:05.359 --> 0:26:09.480
<v Speaker 3>to political, and fifty eight percent of independence nationally said

0:26:09.520 --> 0:26:12.920
<v Speaker 3>that they believe Trump probably are definitely committed crimes related

0:26:12.920 --> 0:26:16.760
<v Speaker 3>to January sixth. Now, this dynamics going to get worse.

0:26:17.240 --> 0:26:21.000
<v Speaker 3>We could have the January sixth trial jury just found

0:26:21.000 --> 0:26:23.840
<v Speaker 3>that he had sexually abused E Gene Carroll. These things

0:26:23.840 --> 0:26:26.560
<v Speaker 3>are going to deepen his problems for him, and I

0:26:26.720 --> 0:26:28.919
<v Speaker 3>really am glad to see that the press is finally

0:26:28.920 --> 0:26:29.959
<v Speaker 3>starting to pick this up.

0:26:30.280 --> 0:26:32.320
<v Speaker 1>One of the things that I think is an interesting

0:26:32.359 --> 0:26:36.320
<v Speaker 1>dynamic here too, is that Trump the candidate, actually I

0:26:36.400 --> 0:26:39.480
<v Speaker 1>think is going to get very soon into conflict with

0:26:39.720 --> 0:26:43.560
<v Speaker 1>Trump the defendant. Yes, he wants to go into all

0:26:43.560 --> 0:26:46.879
<v Speaker 1>these court cases and argue politically because he thinks it

0:26:46.920 --> 0:26:51.639
<v Speaker 1>will help him, which is certainly possible, but it really

0:26:51.720 --> 0:26:54.560
<v Speaker 1>will hurt him with voters. I mean, that's what these

0:26:54.560 --> 0:26:55.320
<v Speaker 1>polls are saying.

0:26:55.640 --> 0:26:57.760
<v Speaker 3>That's absolutely right, and it's true as you say that

0:26:57.880 --> 0:27:01.160
<v Speaker 3>it can help him in a narrow sense. It's clear

0:27:01.200 --> 0:27:03.840
<v Speaker 3>that the indictments helped them in the primaries, right, They

0:27:03.840 --> 0:27:08.280
<v Speaker 3>helped them out Planetic Dissenttus because Dessantus wasn't perceived as

0:27:08.440 --> 0:27:10.320
<v Speaker 3>I don't know, a victim of the deep state, a

0:27:10.320 --> 0:27:14.879
<v Speaker 3>sufficiently victimized figure for the Republican base to support them.

0:27:14.920 --> 0:27:18.840
<v Speaker 3>But look, I mean when a last Deefenek recently described

0:27:19.200 --> 0:27:23.720
<v Speaker 3>the January sixth prisoners as quote unquote hostages, a number

0:27:23.760 --> 0:27:27.280
<v Speaker 3>of vulnerable House Republicans actually ran away from that comment

0:27:27.480 --> 0:27:30.159
<v Speaker 3>and they went out there and they forcefully stressed that

0:27:30.240 --> 0:27:33.919
<v Speaker 3>these are not hostages, they are criminal dependents. But what

0:27:33.960 --> 0:27:37.120
<v Speaker 3>I take from that is that in tough districts across

0:27:37.119 --> 0:27:41.359
<v Speaker 3>the country, it's toxic for a Republican to be aligned

0:27:41.600 --> 0:27:46.879
<v Speaker 3>with the MAGA position that the prosecution of January sixth

0:27:46.960 --> 0:27:48.600
<v Speaker 3>attackers is illegitimate.

0:27:48.760 --> 0:27:52.240
<v Speaker 1>And this gets back to this idea that I feel

0:27:52.320 --> 0:27:56.480
<v Speaker 1>like we should all as pundits get tattooed onto our foreheads,

0:27:56.520 --> 0:27:59.560
<v Speaker 1>which is this idea that, as we have seen again

0:27:59.640 --> 0:28:02.919
<v Speaker 1>and again and again, trump Ism wins a primary and

0:28:03.000 --> 0:28:06.240
<v Speaker 1>loses a general. And we saw that with Carrie Lake.

0:28:06.560 --> 0:28:10.200
<v Speaker 1>We saw that in Pennsylvania. You know, yes, in states,

0:28:10.320 --> 0:28:13.760
<v Speaker 1>in ruby red states, but even in Ohio, jd Vance

0:28:13.840 --> 0:28:16.680
<v Speaker 1>ran about ten points behind what he should have.

0:28:17.000 --> 0:28:19.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think it's one hundred percent, right. I mean,

0:28:19.040 --> 0:28:21.880
<v Speaker 3>in twenty twenty two, the big story of that election

0:28:22.480 --> 0:28:26.880
<v Speaker 3>was that the mega candidates lost a lot of winnable races.

0:28:27.040 --> 0:28:31.800
<v Speaker 3>I mean, everything about the fundamentals tilted towards a Republican victory.

0:28:31.960 --> 0:28:35.000
<v Speaker 3>And again, as you say, the punditry was in denial

0:28:35.040 --> 0:28:39.200
<v Speaker 3>about this. Remember, and I actually committed a mistake on

0:28:39.280 --> 0:28:43.640
<v Speaker 3>this too. I think I actually didn't expect democracy to

0:28:43.680 --> 0:28:46.440
<v Speaker 3>matter quite as much as it did to voters and

0:28:46.600 --> 0:28:49.760
<v Speaker 3>in a very pleasant surprise. And I think the January

0:28:49.840 --> 0:28:52.120
<v Speaker 3>sixth hearings, by the way, played a major role in this,

0:28:52.200 --> 0:28:54.360
<v Speaker 3>and Liz Cheney played a major role in it too,

0:28:54.520 --> 0:28:58.160
<v Speaker 3>especially with independent voters. Right. Yes, it turned out that

0:28:58.200 --> 0:29:01.160
<v Speaker 3>the one to two punch of Dobbs and January sixth

0:29:01.640 --> 0:29:05.160
<v Speaker 3>really resulted in kind of a toxic combo for the

0:29:05.160 --> 0:29:09.280
<v Speaker 3>more MAGA oriented candidates in one statewide race after another

0:29:09.400 --> 0:29:12.520
<v Speaker 3>they lost. Oh yeah, And it's just amazing to me

0:29:12.920 --> 0:29:15.760
<v Speaker 3>that this isn't more part of the dialogue. I have

0:29:15.840 --> 0:29:20.040
<v Speaker 3>this term twenty sixteen brain, and I think it's really

0:29:20.160 --> 0:29:23.400
<v Speaker 3>like a syndrome that a lot of people are suffering from.

0:29:23.600 --> 0:29:28.480
<v Speaker 3>As if the only national election in the last seven

0:29:28.560 --> 0:29:31.760
<v Speaker 3>years or so, it's eight years that mattered is the

0:29:31.800 --> 0:29:35.160
<v Speaker 3>twenty sixteen election. We had three national elections since then,

0:29:35.480 --> 0:29:40.280
<v Speaker 3>and Republicans, especially mega candidates, and Trump lost them all

0:29:40.520 --> 0:29:43.760
<v Speaker 3>or dramatically underperformed in them, as in twenty twenty two,

0:29:43.760 --> 0:29:46.200
<v Speaker 3>which is a bit of a mixed verdict but basically

0:29:46.280 --> 0:29:49.880
<v Speaker 3>a democratic win. Right, It's not part of the discussion.

0:29:49.920 --> 0:29:50.800
<v Speaker 3>It's so bizarre.

0:29:51.080 --> 0:29:54.240
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think it's really a good point. The problem

0:29:54.400 --> 0:29:57.000
<v Speaker 1>for a lot of us in pendent world, but also

0:29:57.200 --> 0:30:02.480
<v Speaker 1>like just in the world itself, is that twenty sixteen

0:30:02.600 --> 0:30:05.400
<v Speaker 1>came so out of left field. And as I was

0:30:05.480 --> 0:30:10.000
<v Speaker 1>talking to Brian Klass about this, is that twenty sixteen

0:30:10.080 --> 0:30:13.240
<v Speaker 1>was a shifting electorate that shifted right for Donald Trump,

0:30:13.800 --> 0:30:17.320
<v Speaker 1>and now we are in a you know, we haven't

0:30:17.640 --> 0:30:20.920
<v Speaker 1>really come back again. We don't know, right, we don't

0:30:20.960 --> 0:30:23.560
<v Speaker 1>know what the shifting electorate will shift for this time.

0:30:23.600 --> 0:30:26.440
<v Speaker 1>But if you look at Iowa had this very low turnout,

0:30:26.600 --> 0:30:30.000
<v Speaker 1>New Hampshire had much higher turnout, But you have to

0:30:30.080 --> 0:30:33.440
<v Speaker 1>wonder how much of that was much higher turnout, much

0:30:33.520 --> 0:30:37.560
<v Speaker 1>closer margins. Again, so you clearly see that in New

0:30:37.600 --> 0:30:42.280
<v Speaker 1>Hampshire they were certainly polling with a twenty sixteen electorate

0:30:42.320 --> 0:30:45.920
<v Speaker 1>in mind. Right, Yeah, so I think that's interesting, oh

0:30:45.960 --> 0:30:46.360
<v Speaker 1>for sure.

0:30:46.440 --> 0:30:49.680
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean, and it's true as you say that

0:30:50.920 --> 0:30:54.120
<v Speaker 3>there was a legitimate reasoning to be shocked and disoriented

0:30:54.120 --> 0:30:57.800
<v Speaker 3>by twenty sixteen, right, yeah, And look, of course Trump

0:30:57.840 --> 0:31:00.120
<v Speaker 3>can win this time. Right. There are a lot lot

0:31:00.120 --> 0:31:03.360
<v Speaker 3>of scenarios you can imagine in which Trump pulls out

0:31:03.520 --> 0:31:06.920
<v Speaker 3>a victory in the end here, but one can acknowledge

0:31:06.960 --> 0:31:11.440
<v Speaker 3>that without sort of erasing the last three national elections

0:31:11.480 --> 0:31:14.320
<v Speaker 3>from the discussion. Right. The bottom line is that there's

0:31:14.880 --> 0:31:18.160
<v Speaker 3>is an anti Magam majority out there that just keeps

0:31:18.200 --> 0:31:23.440
<v Speaker 3>showing up. And the special elections. I think we've all

0:31:23.760 --> 0:31:27.400
<v Speaker 3>heard the reasons why the special elections aren't all that predictive,

0:31:27.520 --> 0:31:30.280
<v Speaker 3>but boy, there's a lot of special election wins for

0:31:30.360 --> 0:31:34.040
<v Speaker 3>Democrats piling up right now, and that is pretty consistent

0:31:34.120 --> 0:31:36.840
<v Speaker 3>with the idea that that anti MAGA majority is.

0:31:37.240 --> 0:31:40.680
<v Speaker 1>Durable, right, And I think that's a really, really, really

0:31:40.680 --> 0:31:45.280
<v Speaker 1>good point. Again, this is this idea that some of

0:31:45.320 --> 0:31:52.080
<v Speaker 1>the pre existing mechanisms for covering political races really don't

0:31:52.280 --> 0:31:54.120
<v Speaker 1>serve democracy.

0:31:54.400 --> 0:31:57.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the conventions of political reporting still haven't caught up

0:31:57.640 --> 0:31:59.760
<v Speaker 3>with the problem. I guess is one put it.

0:32:00.040 --> 0:32:02.840
<v Speaker 1>You've written it, yeah, and you've written about it too.

0:32:03.200 --> 0:32:07.160
<v Speaker 1>So much of the framing here is about comparison, and

0:32:07.760 --> 0:32:14.080
<v Speaker 1>by comparing these two candidates, you're actually normalizing autocracy.

0:32:14.640 --> 0:32:17.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and I think there's also a built in bias

0:32:17.800 --> 0:32:20.960
<v Speaker 3>on It's funny, it's kind of ironic that it results

0:32:20.960 --> 0:32:23.160
<v Speaker 3>in a media bias. And this goes back to what

0:32:23.160 --> 0:32:26.360
<v Speaker 3>you were saying about sort of the twenty sixteen shock, right,

0:32:26.480 --> 0:32:31.880
<v Speaker 3>post twenty sixteen dramatic stress disorder or something maybe that yes, right,

0:32:32.200 --> 0:32:34.560
<v Speaker 3>that people are still suffering from. I mean, if you

0:32:34.600 --> 0:32:37.840
<v Speaker 3>think about it, right, a lot of reporters and commentators

0:32:37.880 --> 0:32:40.960
<v Speaker 3>say to themselves the one thing they dread most is

0:32:41.000 --> 0:32:44.800
<v Speaker 3>to miss a big story, right, And so the feeling was,

0:32:44.960 --> 0:32:47.600
<v Speaker 3>oh my god, we missed this ground swell of right

0:32:47.640 --> 0:32:50.680
<v Speaker 3>wing populist support, and now there's like a bias in

0:32:50.720 --> 0:32:54.360
<v Speaker 3>the other direction, this constant hunt for signs that that

0:32:55.160 --> 0:32:59.440
<v Speaker 3>kind of right wing populist swell that upsert is a

0:32:59.480 --> 0:33:02.920
<v Speaker 3>real and formidable force, or maybe is more formidable than

0:33:02.960 --> 0:33:06.800
<v Speaker 3>it really is. And so again what gets erased are

0:33:06.800 --> 0:33:09.800
<v Speaker 3>the examples of all those can that it's losing.

0:33:09.680 --> 0:33:12.880
<v Speaker 1>Exactly, Greg Sergeant, please come.

0:33:12.720 --> 0:33:15.080
<v Speaker 3>Back, Hey, you have to come on our pod.

0:33:17.040 --> 0:33:22.440
<v Speaker 1>Dave Wigel is a reporter at Semaphore. Welcome to Fast Politics.

0:33:22.480 --> 0:33:24.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm so happy to have you. Dave.

0:33:25.080 --> 0:33:26.280
<v Speaker 3>Hello, it's good to be here.

0:33:26.440 --> 0:33:26.959
<v Speaker 1>Where are you.

0:33:27.440 --> 0:33:30.440
<v Speaker 4>I am in Washington, d C. Getting ready for the

0:33:30.560 --> 0:33:35.240
<v Speaker 4>June primary. Now I'm just I always expected to come

0:33:35.280 --> 0:33:38.200
<v Speaker 4>back here after New Hampshire had voted. This was the

0:33:38.320 --> 0:33:40.000
<v Speaker 4>earliest call I can recall.

0:33:39.720 --> 0:33:40.320
<v Speaker 2>In New Hampshire.

0:33:40.320 --> 0:33:43.280
<v Speaker 4>That's good writing in Bicky Haley's victory of party. And

0:33:43.320 --> 0:33:45.520
<v Speaker 4>she walked out in eight nineteen and the Pols have

0:33:45.520 --> 0:33:48.040
<v Speaker 4>closed nineteen minutes earlier to give her. I guess you'd

0:33:48.080 --> 0:33:50.320
<v Speaker 4>have to call a concession speech factually, but it wasn't

0:33:50.320 --> 0:33:52.800
<v Speaker 4>really net So I got back here right away.

0:33:53.040 --> 0:33:55.480
<v Speaker 1>So I think of you, Dave as the guy who

0:33:55.560 --> 0:33:59.080
<v Speaker 1>is everywhere, like when something happens, I think of you

0:33:59.200 --> 0:34:01.680
<v Speaker 1>as someone who goes everywhere, and that is a high

0:34:01.760 --> 0:34:05.479
<v Speaker 1>compliment from someone like me who has my own weird

0:34:05.520 --> 0:34:09.319
<v Speaker 1>phobia is about going anywhere. So you were in New

0:34:09.320 --> 0:34:12.520
<v Speaker 1>Hampshire on the ground. So what I'm hoping you can

0:34:12.680 --> 0:34:15.920
<v Speaker 1>tell us is there was a huge turnout in New Hampshire.

0:34:16.200 --> 0:34:19.960
<v Speaker 1>Numbers much bigger than in Iowa, where there was about

0:34:19.960 --> 0:34:24.279
<v Speaker 1>a seventy thousand people less turnout besides the weather. Why

0:34:24.520 --> 0:34:28.760
<v Speaker 1>was there that big difference and can you extrapolate anything

0:34:28.800 --> 0:34:29.239
<v Speaker 1>from it?

0:34:29.520 --> 0:34:31.799
<v Speaker 4>I was surprised that turnout was that high, and I

0:34:31.800 --> 0:34:34.520
<v Speaker 4>shouldn't have been. The Secretary of State is his first cycle,

0:34:34.520 --> 0:34:36.400
<v Speaker 4>but he's worth been working in the office for a while.

0:34:36.480 --> 0:34:39.880
<v Speaker 4>He predicted record high turnout for Republican primary. He predicted

0:34:40.000 --> 0:34:42.480
<v Speaker 4>low turnout actually under sold what turnout would look like

0:34:42.480 --> 0:34:44.840
<v Speaker 4>for Democrats. It's about twenty thousand more people showed up

0:34:44.880 --> 0:34:47.440
<v Speaker 4>in that primary than he thought. I was only surprised

0:34:47.480 --> 0:34:50.520
<v Speaker 4>because on the ground there was not the sort of

0:34:50.840 --> 0:34:55.319
<v Speaker 4>surging enthusiasm that you've seen before competitive New Hampshire primaries

0:34:55.360 --> 0:34:58.400
<v Speaker 4>and polling, especially the one track and pull from Suffolk

0:34:58.440 --> 0:35:01.080
<v Speaker 4>in the Boston Globe was showing Trump blowout, which which

0:35:01.080 --> 0:35:02.879
<v Speaker 4>it kind of was. I mean, there are not many

0:35:03.239 --> 0:35:05.160
<v Speaker 4>fifteen point or I think in the net it's gonna

0:35:05.160 --> 0:35:07.359
<v Speaker 4>be about twelve point results that you don't think are

0:35:07.400 --> 0:35:09.759
<v Speaker 4>a blowout, they're probably showing twenty points. I think two

0:35:09.760 --> 0:35:12.600
<v Speaker 4>things happened. One, the weather was pretty good, literally sixty

0:35:12.600 --> 0:35:15.080
<v Speaker 4>degrees warmer than I want in New Hampshire on latch

0:35:15.200 --> 0:35:17.600
<v Speaker 4>day it started as snow, but only after voting was done,

0:35:17.719 --> 0:35:19.880
<v Speaker 4>not that that's an impediment to people in New Hitsher, So

0:35:20.520 --> 0:35:23.480
<v Speaker 4>that helped. I think some unlikely voters turned out. And

0:35:23.520 --> 0:35:25.640
<v Speaker 4>there were a lot of people who did not show

0:35:25.719 --> 0:35:27.719
<v Speaker 4>up to political events, were never going to show up

0:35:27.719 --> 0:35:29.799
<v Speaker 4>to Nikki Hailey rally in person, but who voted for

0:35:29.840 --> 0:35:31.960
<v Speaker 4>her just because they wanted to slow Trump down. So

0:35:32.360 --> 0:35:34.720
<v Speaker 4>a combination of Trump having a very good turnout machine,

0:35:34.840 --> 0:35:38.320
<v Speaker 4>Hailey having a decent, very decent turnout machine between her

0:35:38.360 --> 0:35:41.799
<v Speaker 4>and America's prosperity, and just these unlikely voters who said,

0:35:41.840 --> 0:35:44.240
<v Speaker 4>screw it, I'm going to drive five minutes to the school,

0:35:44.320 --> 0:35:47.160
<v Speaker 4>walking to the polls, take thirty seconds and vote against

0:35:47.239 --> 0:35:48.239
<v Speaker 4>Trump by hooting for her.

0:35:48.480 --> 0:35:51.160
<v Speaker 1>So that's what I actually wanted to ask you, because

0:35:51.239 --> 0:35:55.240
<v Speaker 1>I had dinner on Sunday night with a political scientist

0:35:55.360 --> 0:35:59.640
<v Speaker 1>basic the UK and we were talking about the shifting electorate.

0:36:00.080 --> 0:36:03.080
<v Speaker 1>Why some of the reason that polling has become so hard,

0:36:03.120 --> 0:36:06.640
<v Speaker 1>besides the fact that nobody has phones, is because Trump

0:36:06.719 --> 0:36:11.520
<v Speaker 1>won on this electorate that did not exist before Trump

0:36:11.640 --> 0:36:15.200
<v Speaker 1>and has not really existed after Trump except in twenty

0:36:15.280 --> 0:36:18.879
<v Speaker 1>twenty sort of. And so I'm wondering if what we

0:36:19.000 --> 0:36:22.320
<v Speaker 1>can get about that shifting electorate when we look at

0:36:22.520 --> 0:36:26.799
<v Speaker 1>because Iowa is white and tends to be more religious.

0:36:27.440 --> 0:36:30.160
<v Speaker 1>And notice how I didn't say evangelical, because I feel

0:36:30.200 --> 0:36:32.760
<v Speaker 1>like it's used in a sort of pejorative there, though

0:36:32.840 --> 0:36:35.719
<v Speaker 1>evangelicals tend to support Trump, So do with that what

0:36:35.840 --> 0:36:38.960
<v Speaker 1>you will. In New Hampshire, it's more of a mix.

0:36:39.080 --> 0:36:42.760
<v Speaker 1>So that sort of Trump voter, that low frequency voter,

0:36:43.480 --> 0:36:47.560
<v Speaker 1>probably would short up more in Iowa than in New Hampshire.

0:36:47.960 --> 0:36:51.040
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, actually one side note not sure how it fits

0:36:51.040 --> 0:36:53.520
<v Speaker 4>completely in, but there is a special election to replace

0:36:53.600 --> 0:36:56.160
<v Speaker 4>a Democrat and a Democratic seat in New Hampshire and

0:36:56.360 --> 0:36:58.640
<v Speaker 4>republic has won it because the high turnout, And I

0:36:58.640 --> 0:37:03.360
<v Speaker 4>guess I bring that up because the atypical voter attorney

0:37:03.360 --> 0:37:06.360
<v Speaker 4>off for avery special election has been a college educated

0:37:06.840 --> 0:37:10.200
<v Speaker 4>moderate who doesn't like Trump and Mega and so Trump

0:37:10.280 --> 0:37:13.680
<v Speaker 4>changed the electorate in two ways. Most importantly, he converted

0:37:13.840 --> 0:37:17.279
<v Speaker 4>a lot of white voters without college degrees, which there

0:37:17.280 --> 0:37:20.200
<v Speaker 4>are a fewer NAMESAVM Aaron Iowa, but a lot converted

0:37:20.239 --> 0:37:24.399
<v Speaker 4>them to MAGA voters. And he alienated college educated white

0:37:24.440 --> 0:37:26.959
<v Speaker 4>voters who were voting for Romney a few years ago

0:37:27.000 --> 0:37:29.160
<v Speaker 4>and have turned around. Don't like this version of the

0:37:29.160 --> 0:37:30.840
<v Speaker 4>problem the party. They're going to vote for christ and

0:37:30.920 --> 0:37:33.640
<v Speaker 4>Hudu not anymore because he's retiring. They don't like probably

0:37:33.760 --> 0:37:36.080
<v Speaker 4>and they turn on everything. The reason Democrats have been

0:37:36.080 --> 0:37:38.239
<v Speaker 4>doing so well and special elections they actually flipped to

0:37:38.239 --> 0:37:41.000
<v Speaker 4>Seed in Florida, R De Santas dropped out is those

0:37:41.080 --> 0:37:43.759
<v Speaker 4>voters they are aware of when elections are They don't

0:37:43.760 --> 0:37:46.160
<v Speaker 4>need a lot of cajoling to turn out. They want

0:37:46.200 --> 0:37:49.440
<v Speaker 4>to vote against MAGA for many reasons, from Trump personally

0:37:49.520 --> 0:37:50.840
<v Speaker 4>to abortion.

0:37:50.560 --> 0:37:52.759
<v Speaker 3>Rights to the uncoastless.

0:37:53.080 --> 0:37:55.760
<v Speaker 4>They see. These are people who drive past a neighbor

0:37:55.760 --> 0:37:57.759
<v Speaker 4>who has a Trump flag with the F word on

0:37:57.840 --> 0:37:59.319
<v Speaker 4>it and say, all right, that's not me. I'm going

0:37:59.360 --> 0:38:01.279
<v Speaker 4>to vote for whoever the ELF is running against ten.

0:38:01.320 --> 0:38:02.759
<v Speaker 4>And that's how we changed things. And you saw this

0:38:02.920 --> 0:38:05.520
<v Speaker 4>in Hailey did best in both Iowa and in New

0:38:05.560 --> 0:38:08.879
<v Speaker 4>Hampshire in places with lots of those voters. She did

0:38:08.920 --> 0:38:10.799
<v Speaker 4>better in New Hampshire. It has more than turned out.

0:38:10.800 --> 0:38:12.880
<v Speaker 4>It's a little bit easier to turn out. Remember to

0:38:13.280 --> 0:38:15.319
<v Speaker 4>vote in Iowa. In Iowa, you need to show up

0:38:15.320 --> 0:38:18.560
<v Speaker 4>at the Republican caucuses at six point thirty and change

0:38:18.560 --> 0:38:21.719
<v Speaker 4>your illustration to Republican. In New Hampshire, if you're an

0:38:22.120 --> 0:38:24.680
<v Speaker 4>undeclared voter, which there are about three hundred and two thousand,

0:38:24.760 --> 0:38:26.400
<v Speaker 4>you're already registered to vote, you to show up and

0:38:26.400 --> 0:38:28.520
<v Speaker 4>say I'm pulling a Republican ballot and then you lease.

0:38:28.719 --> 0:38:30.719
<v Speaker 4>And so it was easier to do that. A lot

0:38:30.719 --> 0:38:32.239
<v Speaker 4>of those voters turned out. You can see that in

0:38:32.280 --> 0:38:35.320
<v Speaker 4>places like Hanover where Dartmouth is, and places like Durham

0:38:35.320 --> 0:38:38.200
<v Speaker 4>where the University New Hampshire conquered, places where there are

0:38:38.320 --> 0:38:42.040
<v Speaker 4>concentrations of college educated voters who do not like Donald Trump.

0:38:42.120 --> 0:38:44.880
<v Speaker 4>She did very well and also very high Democratic turnout.

0:38:44.920 --> 0:38:46.960
<v Speaker 4>There were lots of Democrats showing up to write in

0:38:47.040 --> 0:38:49.160
<v Speaker 4>Joe Biden. Those are voters who might have skipped in

0:38:49.160 --> 0:38:51.399
<v Speaker 4>the past, but Trump activates them and you were saved

0:38:51.400 --> 0:38:53.840
<v Speaker 4>if you're watching TV which from it. My favorite polling

0:38:53.960 --> 0:38:56.640
<v Speaker 4>was by CNN in University of New Hampshire, which said

0:38:56.640 --> 0:38:59.960
<v Speaker 4>where people media sources were from. If you watched local

0:39:00.120 --> 0:39:03.320
<v Speaker 4>news or listened to New Hampshire Public Radio or CNN,

0:39:03.800 --> 0:39:06.520
<v Speaker 4>you were voting for Dickie Haley. If you watch conservative media,

0:39:06.520 --> 0:39:08.440
<v Speaker 4>you're vote to somebody else. But all those New Hampshire

0:39:08.480 --> 0:39:11.200
<v Speaker 4>Public radio folks, they were veryware in the primary, and

0:39:11.200 --> 0:39:13.000
<v Speaker 4>they were hearing about Trump all the time, and they said, Nope,

0:39:13.000 --> 0:39:13.239
<v Speaker 4>not that.

0:39:13.600 --> 0:39:16.279
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's so interesting. And then there was write in,

0:39:16.600 --> 0:39:19.160
<v Speaker 1>now let me ask you a question here. We tried

0:39:19.239 --> 0:39:22.520
<v Speaker 1>really hard not to talk about international stuff here, but

0:39:22.600 --> 0:39:24.640
<v Speaker 1>some people did write and ceasefire.

0:39:25.080 --> 0:39:27.799
<v Speaker 4>Not that many. So there was a campaign that formulated

0:39:28.000 --> 0:39:30.960
<v Speaker 4>you're right, and I wrote about it. So I'm saying I.

0:39:32.560 --> 0:39:35.520
<v Speaker 1>Didn't know the numbers on it, so I'm curious.

0:39:35.320 --> 0:39:37.960
<v Speaker 4>It is still being tabulated, probably going to be less

0:39:37.960 --> 0:39:40.040
<v Speaker 4>than two thousand people who did that. There was a

0:39:40.080 --> 0:39:43.720
<v Speaker 4>campaign formed in really the final week of the election,

0:39:44.040 --> 0:39:46.359
<v Speaker 4>which is when most people are turning. In some New

0:39:46.360 --> 0:39:49.880
<v Speaker 4>Hampshire progresses hout a press conference saying we're going to

0:39:50.400 --> 0:39:52.279
<v Speaker 4>encourage you able to write in this term. There was

0:39:52.320 --> 0:39:55.880
<v Speaker 4>actually pushback from Democratic Majority for Israel, which is spending

0:39:55.880 --> 0:39:58.759
<v Speaker 4>a lot of money on pro Israel candidates trying to

0:39:58.840 --> 0:40:02.480
<v Speaker 4>defeat Israel critic usually in Devorkcratic primaries, protesting that putting

0:40:02.520 --> 0:40:04.040
<v Speaker 4>a letter and saying you shouldn't do this. That got

0:40:04.040 --> 0:40:06.000
<v Speaker 4>a little bit of atension. But when I talked to

0:40:06.000 --> 0:40:08.320
<v Speaker 4>Mary and Williams, Cintin Phillips, they're saying, look, if you

0:40:08.320 --> 0:40:10.840
<v Speaker 4>you do want to change the Biden approach here, you

0:40:10.880 --> 0:40:13.600
<v Speaker 4>should vote for a candidate who's not Joe Biden. Lower

0:40:13.680 --> 0:40:16.560
<v Speaker 4>his vote total, increase the denominator and make it look

0:40:16.600 --> 0:40:19.160
<v Speaker 4>like he's want fewer votes. Biden ends up with around

0:40:19.160 --> 0:40:21.840
<v Speaker 4>sixty five percent of the vote as a writing candidate,

0:40:21.880 --> 0:40:24.960
<v Speaker 4>Ceasefire ends up probably around two percent at peak, and

0:40:25.040 --> 0:40:28.000
<v Speaker 4>Biden alternatives get the rest. So there is a a

0:40:28.000 --> 0:40:31.239
<v Speaker 4>anti Biden vote here, but not explicitly vote for Ceespire vote.

0:40:31.280 --> 0:40:34.120
<v Speaker 4>There's not Williams said, is a pro Ceasefire candidate. You

0:40:34.160 --> 0:40:36.640
<v Speaker 4>have them together. That is a about six percent of

0:40:36.640 --> 0:40:39.400
<v Speaker 4>the New Hampshire primary electorate. The obvious example here is

0:40:39.600 --> 0:40:41.680
<v Speaker 4>let's make it like nineteen sixty eight, where nobody can

0:40:41.719 --> 0:40:44.960
<v Speaker 4>ignore the opposition to LDJ in the Vietnam War. That's

0:40:45.000 --> 0:40:46.600
<v Speaker 4>not what happened this time. And I think there are

0:40:46.600 --> 0:40:47.440
<v Speaker 4>lots of reasons for that.

0:40:47.680 --> 0:40:50.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's a totally different I mean, American soldiers are

0:40:50.560 --> 0:40:51.720
<v Speaker 1>not there, right.

0:40:51.600 --> 0:40:52.719
<v Speaker 4>That's the reason you got it.

0:40:52.960 --> 0:40:56.239
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, But I do think what's really interesting when we

0:40:56.280 --> 0:40:59.320
<v Speaker 1>talk about this is like this does in some way.

0:41:00.040 --> 0:41:03.319
<v Speaker 1>I mean, New Hampshire really does make a case for

0:41:03.400 --> 0:41:06.080
<v Speaker 1>the strength of Biden. Right, he's not on the ballot.

0:41:06.480 --> 0:41:10.560
<v Speaker 1>You could argue that Biden got support. There was about

0:41:10.600 --> 0:41:14.000
<v Speaker 1>seventy thousand dollars spent in this state. Unless it's more.

0:41:14.080 --> 0:41:16.400
<v Speaker 1>You might know better than I do, Dave. What I

0:41:16.480 --> 0:41:19.160
<v Speaker 1>read was about seventy thousand to get people going to

0:41:19.320 --> 0:41:22.439
<v Speaker 1>know that there was a write in campaign. I still

0:41:22.480 --> 0:41:27.040
<v Speaker 1>think that's pretty amazing, considering that he had snubbed the state, right,

0:41:27.080 --> 0:41:30.160
<v Speaker 1>he changed the like I thought New Hampshire would be

0:41:30.280 --> 0:41:33.480
<v Speaker 1>matter at him because he has robbed them of their

0:41:33.520 --> 0:41:35.520
<v Speaker 1>status as going first.

0:41:35.680 --> 0:41:38.840
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that was a surprise. I remember I was quoting

0:41:38.840 --> 0:41:42.160
<v Speaker 4>the Secretary of States projection. It was that maybe eighty

0:41:42.200 --> 0:41:45.840
<v Speaker 4>eight thousand people would bother showing up for the primary period,

0:41:46.040 --> 0:41:48.399
<v Speaker 4>and there was a lot of wardbreed I'd say three

0:41:48.400 --> 0:41:50.560
<v Speaker 4>months ago that Biden was going to do this. One

0:41:50.560 --> 0:41:52.960
<v Speaker 4>thing that Governor Sanuna would point out a lot is

0:41:53.000 --> 0:41:56.680
<v Speaker 4>that Democrats didn't have their meeting on their primary schedule

0:41:56.760 --> 0:41:59.839
<v Speaker 4>until after twenty twenty two's midterms. He thought that would

0:41:59.880 --> 0:42:02.600
<v Speaker 4>be issue that would help Republicans, and they pushed it back,

0:42:02.640 --> 0:42:04.400
<v Speaker 4>so they didn't get they didn't get the bounce from that.

0:42:04.800 --> 0:42:08.880
<v Speaker 4>But while this primary was happening, some posters were asking, Okay,

0:42:09.000 --> 0:42:11.239
<v Speaker 4>when this is over, you voting for Joe Biden or

0:42:11.280 --> 0:42:13.440
<v Speaker 4>Don Trump or je vote for Haley or Joe Biden.

0:42:13.520 --> 0:42:16.319
<v Speaker 4>And Haley was in a close race with Biden up

0:42:16.320 --> 0:42:20.320
<v Speaker 4>a little. Biden was beating Donald Trump because these voters

0:42:20.440 --> 0:42:22.840
<v Speaker 4>were less offended they are Also was an impression, i

0:42:22.840 --> 0:42:26.960
<v Speaker 4>think enhanced by this right in campaign that look, we're

0:42:26.960 --> 0:42:29.200
<v Speaker 4>going to we're going to get the primary back. At

0:42:29.200 --> 0:42:31.560
<v Speaker 4>some point, there's going to be a twenty twenty eighth primary.

0:42:31.560 --> 0:42:33.839
<v Speaker 4>Democrats all realize they shouldn't have done this. They're going

0:42:33.880 --> 0:42:35.640
<v Speaker 4>to come back to it. So that was explicitly an

0:42:35.719 --> 0:42:38.960
<v Speaker 4>argument made by the right end effort. It was in grassroots.

0:42:39.000 --> 0:42:42.160
<v Speaker 4>If you can call Democratic lobbyists grassroots, they are.

0:42:42.280 --> 0:42:42.920
<v Speaker 3>And they were doing this.

0:42:42.880 --> 0:42:45.520
<v Speaker 4>About the without money from the campaign as Jim Damers

0:42:45.560 --> 0:42:47.520
<v Speaker 4>and Kathie Sulivan. That's what they were telling me and

0:42:47.560 --> 0:42:50.720
<v Speaker 4>other people. Yes, if we have a great showing for Biden,

0:42:50.960 --> 0:42:52.520
<v Speaker 4>the parties had to come back to us. Actually, I

0:42:52.560 --> 0:42:54.360
<v Speaker 4>just I just was double checking. It's going to be

0:42:54.640 --> 0:42:57.160
<v Speaker 4>closer to one hundred and twenty five thousand New Hampshire

0:42:57.200 --> 0:42:59.320
<v Speaker 4>voters turned out. That is fifty percent more than a

0:42:59.360 --> 0:43:01.719
<v Speaker 4>state projective. Biden's going to end up. A stat that

0:43:01.719 --> 0:43:03.880
<v Speaker 4>you're going to see thrown around is Biden got more

0:43:03.960 --> 0:43:06.440
<v Speaker 4>votes as a writing candidate as than Bertie got when

0:43:06.480 --> 0:43:08.360
<v Speaker 4>he won the twenty twenty primary.

0:43:08.040 --> 0:43:10.320
<v Speaker 1>Or then Obama got right.

0:43:10.520 --> 0:43:12.239
<v Speaker 4>More than Obama got in twenty twelve when there was

0:43:12.280 --> 0:43:15.200
<v Speaker 4>no opposition, and when Democrats were just going to go

0:43:15.239 --> 0:43:18.080
<v Speaker 4>back and redominate him. They wanted to prove that. They said, Okay,

0:43:18.200 --> 0:43:21.239
<v Speaker 4>we know you're unhappy, but I should put it this way.

0:43:21.320 --> 0:43:23.399
<v Speaker 4>The message was, we're not Iowa. We're not the state

0:43:23.440 --> 0:43:26.640
<v Speaker 4>that screws up the primary, that makes you stick around

0:43:26.640 --> 0:43:28.800
<v Speaker 4>waiting for results. We're not the one that can't count.

0:43:28.960 --> 0:43:31.319
<v Speaker 4>We are the one where people are engaged and they

0:43:31.320 --> 0:43:34.759
<v Speaker 4>will show up. You should really reconsider your purge of us,

0:43:34.920 --> 0:43:37.520
<v Speaker 4>not purge, but you know, your slight emotion of us.

0:43:37.520 --> 0:43:40.080
<v Speaker 4>In twenty twenty eight, I feel like they succeeded based

0:43:40.120 --> 0:43:43.080
<v Speaker 4>on the chatter right here from Democrats. Oh interesting, they're

0:43:43.080 --> 0:43:45.879
<v Speaker 4>probably going to be revisiting this in three years and

0:43:45.960 --> 0:43:49.120
<v Speaker 4>if Biden's president and there's a new nomination, they fere confident,

0:43:49.160 --> 0:43:51.759
<v Speaker 4>they'll say they'll be able to come back and say

0:43:51.440 --> 0:43:54.160
<v Speaker 4>we took her a lump, come back and then do

0:43:54.280 --> 0:43:56.239
<v Speaker 4>the best primary, the one everyone loves. So come back

0:43:56.280 --> 0:43:57.440
<v Speaker 4>and hang out with Verban Supreme.

0:43:58.600 --> 0:44:01.319
<v Speaker 1>I know you've seen this, know you've seen this the

0:44:01.400 --> 0:44:06.319
<v Speaker 1>CNN interview where they where they thought they were interviewing

0:44:06.360 --> 0:44:08.560
<v Speaker 1>a normal New Hampshire voter.

0:44:09.120 --> 0:44:11.719
<v Speaker 4>Yes, because Kathy Sullivan, that's one of the she was

0:44:11.800 --> 0:44:14.400
<v Speaker 4>leading the super pack in favor of writing and bibe.

0:44:14.560 --> 0:44:17.920
<v Speaker 1>Yes, can you talk? That was one of the great

0:44:18.160 --> 0:44:21.200
<v Speaker 1>moments ever. So they clearly think they have like a

0:44:21.239 --> 0:44:24.960
<v Speaker 1>little old lady here and she is explained to us

0:44:24.960 --> 0:44:27.400
<v Speaker 1>who she is again, because I thought that was great.

0:44:27.600 --> 0:44:30.600
<v Speaker 4>Kaffy Sullivan is a former New Hampshire Democratic Party chair.

0:44:30.920 --> 0:44:33.600
<v Speaker 4>She was there when Barack Obama won, so she was

0:44:33.600 --> 0:44:37.760
<v Speaker 4>there for New Hampshire Democrats becoming not the dominant political party,

0:44:37.800 --> 0:44:39.760
<v Speaker 4>but the party that wins most of the federal races.

0:44:39.840 --> 0:44:42.080
<v Speaker 4>Chris and Nunu has been able to break that. They're

0:44:42.120 --> 0:44:44.960
<v Speaker 4>trying to keep that record this year. But they've won

0:44:45.040 --> 0:44:48.239
<v Speaker 4>governor's races, but they struggled and Senate and House races

0:44:48.280 --> 0:44:51.560
<v Speaker 4>since the party ship, since more college educated white voters

0:44:51.560 --> 0:44:54.040
<v Speaker 4>became Democrat. And yeah, she ran the super pac that

0:44:54.160 --> 0:44:57.799
<v Speaker 4>was paying for signs and mail, not cdeds. You never

0:44:57.800 --> 0:44:59.920
<v Speaker 4>saw cded and said, right and Biden, but you saw

0:45:00.000 --> 0:45:01.719
<v Speaker 4>a lot of road signs that were explaining how to

0:45:01.719 --> 0:45:04.160
<v Speaker 4>write it in. He paid for it. Yeah, And she

0:45:04.200 --> 0:45:06.840
<v Speaker 4>said that what Dean Phillips is doing with obnoxious, I did.

0:45:06.680 --> 0:45:09.560
<v Speaker 1>Think that was sort of amazing. But Dean Phillips, he

0:45:09.719 --> 0:45:11.760
<v Speaker 1>made sort of a similar case. I mean, I actually

0:45:11.840 --> 0:45:15.840
<v Speaker 1>read a really smart essay yesterday about how both Dean

0:45:15.920 --> 0:45:18.439
<v Speaker 1>Phillips and it was just something I hadn't thought about.

0:45:18.680 --> 0:45:23.120
<v Speaker 1>Both Dean Phillips and Nikki Haley both ran sort of

0:45:23.160 --> 0:45:25.160
<v Speaker 1>on the idea that the other guy was too old,

0:45:25.360 --> 0:45:28.719
<v Speaker 1>right that on this sort of agism platform, because Dean

0:45:28.760 --> 0:45:33.040
<v Speaker 1>Phillips has almost ideologically he's almost identical to Biden. In fact,

0:45:33.080 --> 0:45:35.920
<v Speaker 1>he's really for someone of his age. His beliefs are

0:45:36.160 --> 0:45:40.880
<v Speaker 1>very center center for this Democratic Party. So I'm just

0:45:41.600 --> 0:45:44.719
<v Speaker 1>I'm just wondering. Neither of them really did what they

0:45:44.960 --> 0:45:46.879
<v Speaker 1>said they were going to do, or what they had

0:45:46.920 --> 0:45:48.680
<v Speaker 1>hoped they were going to do, But both of them

0:45:48.840 --> 0:45:52.839
<v Speaker 1>seem unfazed by their inability to deliver what they said

0:45:52.840 --> 0:45:54.960
<v Speaker 1>they were I mean, will they both stay in? Do

0:45:55.000 --> 0:45:55.600
<v Speaker 1>you think.

0:45:55.760 --> 0:45:59.279
<v Speaker 4>Phillips is staying in? Williamson is staying in. Phillip's in

0:45:59.320 --> 0:46:02.080
<v Speaker 4>public to me said he needs to get into the twenties,

0:46:02.120 --> 0:46:04.880
<v Speaker 4>which he did. As the votes are finally being counted.

0:46:04.920 --> 0:46:07.359
<v Speaker 4>He barely made it into the twenties. That is, it's

0:46:07.360 --> 0:46:10.160
<v Speaker 4>going to round up to that. At least he underperformed

0:46:10.440 --> 0:46:13.520
<v Speaker 4>what he wanted. More quietly, they said, we did the twenties.

0:46:13.560 --> 0:46:16.560
<v Speaker 4>They really wanted some dramatic result closer to nineteen sixty

0:46:16.560 --> 0:46:18.720
<v Speaker 4>eight when LBJ only gets forty nine percent of about

0:46:18.880 --> 0:46:21.439
<v Speaker 4>Jim McCarthy gets forty one. They didn't get that half

0:46:21.480 --> 0:46:23.840
<v Speaker 4>of Fiji. McCarthy is something you'll hear from Biden. Folks,

0:46:23.960 --> 0:46:27.360
<v Speaker 4>he has a problem where he is not really relevant

0:46:27.400 --> 0:46:30.360
<v Speaker 4>in South Carolina, where voting is happening next thanks to

0:46:30.440 --> 0:46:33.320
<v Speaker 4>Democratic calendar. He is not on the ballot in Nevada

0:46:33.360 --> 0:46:35.200
<v Speaker 4>because he've jett in the race too late to make

0:46:35.200 --> 0:46:37.239
<v Speaker 4>the ballot, so he doesn't get another test of how

0:46:37.280 --> 0:46:40.359
<v Speaker 4>popular he is or how popular. The idea of replacing

0:46:40.680 --> 0:46:43.800
<v Speaker 4>Biden with a generic Democrat, and this is Joe gander

0:46:43.880 --> 0:46:46.320
<v Speaker 4>Yang likes, is that if if he just can convinced

0:46:46.440 --> 0:46:48.560
<v Speaker 4>to change his name to generic Democrat, I'll say, in

0:46:48.640 --> 0:46:50.520
<v Speaker 4>the country the Trump. He didn't get her test of

0:46:50.600 --> 0:46:53.640
<v Speaker 4>that until Michigan at the end of February, and then

0:46:54.080 --> 0:46:57.200
<v Speaker 4>is not clear exactly where else he competeing. One story

0:46:57.200 --> 0:47:00.080
<v Speaker 4>I've worked on by talking to Phillips is that he

0:47:00.080 --> 0:47:02.480
<v Speaker 4>missed some other deadline. So Florida, which is mid March,

0:47:02.560 --> 0:47:04.200
<v Speaker 4>has a primary that he's not going to be on

0:47:04.200 --> 0:47:07.200
<v Speaker 4>the ballot. For North Carolina is a Super Tuesday state.

0:47:07.239 --> 0:47:09.399
<v Speaker 4>He's not in the ballot for that. So he put

0:47:09.440 --> 0:47:11.680
<v Speaker 4>five million dollars in his own money, which is considerable.

0:47:11.840 --> 0:47:15.360
<v Speaker 4>He's a successful businessman before he became a member of Congress.

0:47:15.400 --> 0:47:17.640
<v Speaker 4>He's put money in the race he has a super

0:47:17.640 --> 0:47:20.640
<v Speaker 4>pac funding him that has not been that successful. It

0:47:20.719 --> 0:47:24.680
<v Speaker 4>did a really one of the better sidebar stories about

0:47:24.760 --> 0:47:27.680
<v Speaker 4>this race was the Dean Phillips super Pac creating an

0:47:27.680 --> 0:47:29.440
<v Speaker 4>hay I version of Dean Phillips, I can answer your

0:47:29.520 --> 0:47:31.960
<v Speaker 4>questions and then shutting it down. It's the super pac

0:47:32.080 --> 0:47:35.359
<v Speaker 4>is funded in part by Bill Lackman. Sam Altman. He's

0:47:35.360 --> 0:47:37.279
<v Speaker 4>a little bit embarrassed by what the superPAC is doing,

0:47:37.360 --> 0:47:39.960
<v Speaker 4>but yeah, there's the money out there to keep funding him.

0:47:40.080 --> 0:47:41.960
<v Speaker 1>Wait, Sam Altman, Yeah.

0:47:41.800 --> 0:47:43.760
<v Speaker 3>The open the Eye guy is also a THILD supporter.

0:47:44.040 --> 0:47:48.200
<v Speaker 1>Okay, wow, all right, good for that's great tech brows

0:47:48.320 --> 0:47:51.719
<v Speaker 1>once again. So now we go to South Carolina. I mean,

0:47:51.800 --> 0:47:55.360
<v Speaker 1>it just seems as if Donald Trump can't help himself

0:47:55.440 --> 0:47:57.719
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to Nicky Haley. Do you think that's

0:47:57.760 --> 0:48:00.640
<v Speaker 1>the dynamic? I mean, and ultimately probably doesn't do much

0:48:00.680 --> 0:48:04.040
<v Speaker 1>for Nikki, but it might help Biden ultimately, right.

0:48:04.360 --> 0:48:04.840
<v Speaker 3>It could.

0:48:04.960 --> 0:48:09.280
<v Speaker 4>So. I am very skeptical of any Trump is finished

0:48:09.360 --> 0:48:11.840
<v Speaker 4>because of the way he emotionally reacted to something.

0:48:12.200 --> 0:48:12.560
<v Speaker 3>Theory.

0:48:12.719 --> 0:48:14.640
<v Speaker 4>We have seen this not work too many times. Even

0:48:14.760 --> 0:48:17.600
<v Speaker 4>Democrats I talked to, if they could program the media

0:48:17.640 --> 0:48:20.240
<v Speaker 4>which believe it or out they don't they assistant usuams

0:48:20.280 --> 0:48:21.080
<v Speaker 4>and telling what they're doing.

0:48:21.600 --> 0:48:22.360
<v Speaker 3>They would love.

0:48:22.360 --> 0:48:24.920
<v Speaker 4>More of a focus on what is he going to

0:48:24.920 --> 0:48:29.520
<v Speaker 4>do about abortion access, abortion medication, What is he going

0:48:29.600 --> 0:48:31.440
<v Speaker 4>to do about tax rates? What is he going to

0:48:31.440 --> 0:48:34.359
<v Speaker 4>do about labor? Because he has conservative advisors who'd want

0:48:34.400 --> 0:48:37.160
<v Speaker 4>to gut the EDLRB Elon tries to it at existence.

0:48:37.360 --> 0:48:39.479
<v Speaker 4>They'd love to talk about that because they think Trump

0:48:39.560 --> 0:48:42.640
<v Speaker 4>being erratic is not really a problem for him. Haley

0:48:42.719 --> 0:48:45.080
<v Speaker 4>did to give her credit get under his skin. Her

0:48:45.120 --> 0:48:49.000
<v Speaker 4>basic strategy on election night was concede quickly, which she did,

0:48:49.040 --> 0:48:51.440
<v Speaker 4>which is normal if you're not Trump usually conceived the

0:48:51.440 --> 0:48:53.239
<v Speaker 4>election if you lose, and you do it before the

0:48:53.320 --> 0:48:55.920
<v Speaker 4>victory speech, and you get to influence a victory speech.

0:48:56.000 --> 0:48:58.080
<v Speaker 4>So she came out there with a speech where she

0:48:58.280 --> 0:49:00.040
<v Speaker 4>laid out how she was going to keep running for

0:49:00.160 --> 0:49:02.799
<v Speaker 4>two months. He never said she lost the race. She said,

0:49:02.840 --> 0:49:05.160
<v Speaker 4>thank you God. She talked like somebody who had just

0:49:05.200 --> 0:49:07.879
<v Speaker 4>won an election. And yes, that pissed off Trump, who

0:49:08.080 --> 0:49:10.200
<v Speaker 4>is going to keep making fun of her. The advantage

0:49:10.200 --> 0:49:14.000
<v Speaker 4>he has though, as opposed to twenty sixteen when he

0:49:14.040 --> 0:49:16.399
<v Speaker 4>actually lost Iowa and then yelled about it, just said

0:49:16.400 --> 0:49:18.480
<v Speaker 4>it was stolen. Is that he has a superstructure in

0:49:18.520 --> 0:49:21.000
<v Speaker 4>the Republican Party agreeing that Donald Trump should be the

0:49:21.040 --> 0:49:22.120
<v Speaker 4>nominae and she should.

0:49:21.880 --> 0:49:23.839
<v Speaker 1>Back off, like Ronal McDaniel.

0:49:24.040 --> 0:49:27.120
<v Speaker 4>Yes, like the sharers for the RNC, which I wrote yesterday,

0:49:27.520 --> 0:49:29.520
<v Speaker 4>you're not supposed to do It's in that our laws

0:49:29.520 --> 0:49:32.120
<v Speaker 4>of the by Laws of the Party rule eleven. You're

0:49:32.160 --> 0:49:33.919
<v Speaker 4>not allowed to do that. The party is not allowed

0:49:33.960 --> 0:49:36.200
<v Speaker 4>to give it in Times contribution before there's a nominee,

0:49:36.400 --> 0:49:39.280
<v Speaker 4>and they did so He's already got the parties saying, yeah,

0:49:39.400 --> 0:49:41.759
<v Speaker 4>we agree. Maybe we're going to express it differently than

0:49:41.800 --> 0:49:44.319
<v Speaker 4>Donald Trump and use a primetime an election night to

0:49:44.360 --> 0:49:46.600
<v Speaker 4>make fun of her. But he is, I think, channeling

0:49:46.640 --> 0:49:48.480
<v Speaker 4>what his voters think. A lot of Republicans think. He

0:49:48.560 --> 0:49:50.920
<v Speaker 4>said that, but also Ja d Vance said that the

0:49:50.960 --> 0:49:53.600
<v Speaker 4>governor South Carolina is getting there. He is a Trump

0:49:53.640 --> 0:49:55.880
<v Speaker 4>endorser who is campaigning for him. I don't think that

0:49:55.960 --> 0:49:58.640
<v Speaker 4>is a harmful thing for Trump to look like he's

0:49:58.760 --> 0:50:01.759
<v Speaker 4>annoyed at Dicky Haley. Are not conceding because so are

0:50:01.920 --> 0:50:03.400
<v Speaker 4>many of the forces in east side the party.

0:50:03.719 --> 0:50:06.120
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and also, I think you had a really good point.

0:50:06.320 --> 0:50:10.160
<v Speaker 1>Being insane is not necessarily hurt Trump. If anything, it's

0:50:10.200 --> 0:50:14.680
<v Speaker 1>sort of baked in. This was so interesting. I so

0:50:14.880 --> 0:50:18.920
<v Speaker 1>appreciate you coming on and just also I continue to

0:50:19.080 --> 0:50:22.800
<v Speaker 1>be grateful for your dispatches from places that I desperately

0:50:22.840 --> 0:50:25.800
<v Speaker 1>do not want to ever go. Thank you, Dave.

0:50:26.280 --> 0:50:32.120
<v Speaker 4>It's great, no moment, perfectly.

0:50:31.719 --> 0:50:35.400
<v Speaker 2>Jesse Cannon by junk Fast Trump.

0:50:35.920 --> 0:50:37.600
<v Speaker 1>He's yuppin, He's in court.

0:50:37.800 --> 0:50:38.480
<v Speaker 2>What's going on?

0:50:38.880 --> 0:50:42.480
<v Speaker 1>You know, he's testifying right now as we are doing this.

0:50:43.080 --> 0:50:46.320
<v Speaker 1>We have a Lena Habba. You may remember Alena Hobba

0:50:46.440 --> 0:50:50.880
<v Speaker 1>as being completely unqualified for this, and she is sparring

0:50:51.120 --> 0:50:56.880
<v Speaker 1>with Judge Caplan and also with ROBERTA. Caplan. Robbie Caplan,

0:50:56.960 --> 0:50:59.800
<v Speaker 1>who is the lawyer for Egan Carroll and who have

0:51:00.080 --> 0:51:03.359
<v Speaker 1>course full disclosure. I know him and friendly with all

0:51:03.360 --> 0:51:03.840
<v Speaker 1>these people.

0:51:04.040 --> 0:51:06.200
<v Speaker 2>I saw that in a truth social post today, in

0:51:06.239 --> 0:51:07.520
<v Speaker 2>fact from mister Trump.

0:51:07.880 --> 0:51:11.960
<v Speaker 1>Yes, I've been truthed, but I just want to say

0:51:11.960 --> 0:51:13.440
<v Speaker 1>that Trump is gonna have a lot of trouble with

0:51:13.440 --> 0:51:17.879
<v Speaker 1>this testimony. And already we see Trump saying she said

0:51:17.880 --> 0:51:23.160
<v Speaker 1>something I considered a false accusation. ROBERTA. Caplan objection, Judge

0:51:23.200 --> 0:51:27.960
<v Speaker 1>Caplan sustained, and miss Habba I have no further questions.

0:51:28.280 --> 0:51:33.919
<v Speaker 1>Judge Caplan, cross examination. There was a trial here, correct, Trump, Yes,

0:51:34.480 --> 0:51:39.080
<v Speaker 1>so this is going to be my moment of fuckery. Basically,

0:51:39.200 --> 0:51:43.040
<v Speaker 1>they got two questions. Donald Trump was not allowed to

0:51:43.160 --> 0:51:46.320
<v Speaker 1>do the kind of lying he gets to do everywhere else.

0:51:46.840 --> 0:51:51.360
<v Speaker 1>And for that, that is my moment of fuckery. That's

0:51:51.400 --> 0:51:55.680
<v Speaker 1>it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday,

0:51:55.680 --> 0:51:58.640
<v Speaker 1>and Friday to hear the best minds in politics makes

0:51:58.640 --> 0:52:01.360
<v Speaker 1>sense of all this case. I ask if you enjoyed

0:52:01.360 --> 0:52:03.880
<v Speaker 1>what you've heard, please send it to a friend and

0:52:03.960 --> 0:52:07.360
<v Speaker 1>keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.