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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds. And Greg Abbott is defying the Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court and continuing to put up razor wire at the

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Speaker 1: Texas border. We have such a great show for you today.

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Speaker 1: The New Republic's Greg's sergeant stops by to talk to

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Speaker 1: us about how the media is covering the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four election and it's many, many failures. Then we'll talk

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Speaker 1: to Semaphore's Dave Weigel about what's happening on the ground

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Speaker 1: in New Hampshire and Iowa and soon South Carolina. But

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Speaker 1: first we have NBC's National Affairs correspondent John Heilman. Welcome

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Speaker 1: back to Fast Politics. John Heilman.

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Speaker 2: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast. It's so great to be

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Speaker 2: here with you again. In the wake of boy I

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Speaker 2: guess what everybody thinks is like the end of the

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Speaker 2: Republican nominating contest. I guess you know that's probably that's

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Speaker 2: my insensible point of view about it. So, you know,

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Speaker 2: are you how are you feeling about the nation with

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump? Is another day back to a nominee of

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Speaker 2: the party. They're saying that if anybody right the checks

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Speaker 2: in Nicky Haley, they're going to be like putting a

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Speaker 2: concentration camp or something.

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Speaker 1: By the way, where I live in Manhattan, I know

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Speaker 1: so many people who are like who come to me

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Speaker 1: and they say, Mom, you know, I'm giving Nikki Haley

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Speaker 1: some incredible amount of money. And I say, the math

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Speaker 1: is not mathing. There's no world in which this works.

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Speaker 1: And they say, yeah, yeah, but something could happen.

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Speaker 2: Well, they're not wrong. I mean something could happen. The

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Speaker 2: thing that this has reminded me of in the last

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Speaker 2: couple of days is two thousand and eight and the

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Speaker 2: twenty sixteen Democratic nomination flights, where after Super Tuesday, David

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Speaker 2: Luffle looked at all of the spreadsheets and was like,

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Speaker 2: you know, a world of proportional allocation of delegates, there's

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Speaker 2: no world which Hillary Clinton can now come back. And

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Speaker 2: they started making this argument about the math that would

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Speaker 2: try to convince reporters. They were pretty good. They were

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Speaker 2: good at and they were right. I mean it was like,

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Speaker 2: you know, they would say, she would have to win,

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Speaker 2: you know, the remaining contests sixty five to thirty five,

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Speaker 2: and there's no record for winning anything suscebout thirty five

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Speaker 2: and so there's no world in which she's going to

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Speaker 2: wait all the contests, and there's no math that makes

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Speaker 2: it as it makes sense. And the Clintons, who are

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Speaker 2: widely described as deluded at this point, were always kind

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Speaker 2: of like, well, something could happen, you know, they could

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Speaker 2: find the they could find the Whitey tape with Brot

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Speaker 2: with Michelle Obama trashing white people. They could find something

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Speaker 2: that will destroy back Obama, and you'd be like, well,

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Speaker 2: you guys are out of your mind. And then in

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Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, if you want to turn this around for

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Speaker 2: different ideological purposes, it's like there was a moment that

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Speaker 2: came we're Bernie. In the last couple months of that campaign,

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Speaker 2: I had had conversations with him aout it. I'd say,

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Speaker 2: you know, you would have to win seventy five percent

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Speaker 2: of the popular boat in the remaining races to be

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Speaker 2: able to come into that commention with the same number

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Speaker 2: of delegates as Hilary exliner are more you know, what

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Speaker 2: are you doing? His answer was really, I'm leading a

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Speaker 2: movement and I can't let go, and his I'm saying

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Speaker 2: he didn't say that quite that way. But that was

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Speaker 2: the truth of the thing, and his advisors were like,

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Speaker 2: we're trying to accumulate delegates, so we have a leverage

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Speaker 2: of the convention. People find various reasons to go on,

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Speaker 2: and I think is deluded as the as the Clintons were,

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Speaker 2: that they were going to find some devastating piece of

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Speaker 2: new information that was going to make Barack Obama unelectable

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Speaker 2: or completely disqualify him. You know it's Donald Trump if

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Speaker 2: you're around Nicky Haley and you have the money to

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Speaker 2: go on because as you as you know, well, no

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Speaker 2: one quits a presidential race because they're losing. They quit

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Speaker 2: a presidential race because the money drives up. If you

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Speaker 2: have the money, I will see whether that continues to

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Speaker 2: be the case for her. If you have the money

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Speaker 2: and you're headed to your home state, and you know,

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Speaker 2: people could tell you all day long about how the

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Speaker 2: party down, there's maga, there's some more Republicans that all

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Speaker 2: the democractics, the maths definitely against her. Donald Trump is

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Speaker 2: the all but certain nominee. But it's Donald Trump, right,

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Speaker 2: He's legal problems, He's got all.

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Speaker 1: These things that are ninety one counts.

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Speaker 2: Yes, Eddie's got the and some of these trials, you know,

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Speaker 2: potentially will start at least potentially Wilson begin not end

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Speaker 2: well in the in this period. Is there a chance,

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Speaker 2: given the way the chaotic, hectic, shambalic crazy asked way

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Speaker 2: that Donald Trump's public life has unfolded, is there a

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Speaker 2: chance that something could happen that would break the race

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Speaker 2: open in.

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Speaker 3: A certain way. There's a chance.

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Speaker 2: And to me, it's sort of like not nobody should

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Speaker 2: be like, yeah, I think Nicka Haley's really got a shot.

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Speaker 2: That's not really the point. The point more is that,

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Speaker 2: like if clear, she's in his head that thing on

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Speaker 2: Tuesday night. We talked about it on TV on Wednesday morning.

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Speaker 2: But I was at her without a concession speak out

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Speaker 2: to victory of becha, I am going to the day

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Speaker 2: of the race speech up and conquered on Tuesday night.

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Speaker 2: And she was better in that speech that I think

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Speaker 2: I may have ever seen her in terms of her

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Speaker 2: projection of confidence, ease in herself, sense of life. She

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Speaker 2: did not seem like a candidate who was trying to

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Speaker 2: put on a brave face. She read to me like

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Speaker 2: a candidate who was like I've kind of found my

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Speaker 2: groove here I'm not probably probably in denial about the

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Speaker 2: ultimate likely outcome here. But as long as she has

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Speaker 2: cut someone who's willing to give her money, and as

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Speaker 2: long as she's got the guts, I do stay guts

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Speaker 2: to risk a loss in her home state that could

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Speaker 2: really leave a mark on her politically forever. As long

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Speaker 2: as she's got those two things, you know, why not?

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Speaker 2: Four years ago Joe Biden gave basically that same speech

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Speaker 2: on the night in New Hampshire. He finished fourth and

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Speaker 2: iow at fits New Hampshire and he said, there's only

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Speaker 2: two states that have voted. Let the country speak. Why

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Speaker 2: do we have to shut this down right now? I'm

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Speaker 2: going to go on and I want to take this

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Speaker 2: to bigger and more diverse states. I just don't see

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Speaker 2: why if you thought that was okay for Joe Biden's tate,

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Speaker 2: that pussure, why you wouldn't think it was okay Nikki

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Speaker 2: Elia wants to she has the money and she's willing

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Speaker 2: to take the risk. Why would anybody not want to

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Speaker 2: see her out there prosecuting some case against Donald Trump?

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Speaker 2: If those things are true, and only these two little

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Speaker 2: small states in voted.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and I think that's right and I think that

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Speaker 1: it's a really good point. And I happen to have

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Speaker 1: written a piece on the Washington Post opinion page that

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Speaker 1: was published quite largely that said that Joe Biden should

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Speaker 1: drop out because he wasn't going away, probably one of

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Speaker 1: the longest I have ever been in my political career.

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Speaker 1: I think that you have a really good point. Now,

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Speaker 1: Devil's Advocate is that for the last eight years, we

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Speaker 1: have all sort of engaged in group hallucination that Donald

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Speaker 1: that something might happen to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: But this is why I say, let us not engage.

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Speaker 2: I'm the laws person to engage in a wish casting

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Speaker 2: and I'm not like some big McKy haliy fan. I'm

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Speaker 2: not sitting here saying she should stay in because she

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Speaker 2: has a good chance, or she should stay in because

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Speaker 2: she has a reasonable chance. I think she has virtually

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Speaker 2: no chance, and in the end, there's some harm in

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Speaker 2: her going forward if that's the choice she wants to make.

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Speaker 2: I kind of applaud her for wanting to stay in

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Speaker 2: and make again some sort of case against someone who

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Speaker 2: you know is all the things that we know Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump is, and I know a lot of people you

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Speaker 2: know who would have said to me in the last

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Speaker 2: and maybe this would be a controversial point of view.

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Speaker 2: But the Democrats who really want to stop Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: who said I don't know I should feel about Nikki

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Speaker 2: Haley eight because I think that this is their assertions.

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Speaker 2: A lot of people feel this way. I think she

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Speaker 2: would be tougher for Joe Biden to beat than Trump

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Speaker 2: will be. But I also note that if like Trump's

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Speaker 2: the nominee, there's something around the fifty to fifty chance

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Speaker 2: that he'll be the next president. And so I don't

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Speaker 2: know what to do about this. Nicky Haley would be

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Speaker 2: too conservative for my taste as president. She might be

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Speaker 2: better at student to beat Biden. Do I really want

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Speaker 2: to take that risk?

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Speaker 3: Should I?

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Speaker 2: How should I play this? If I'm playing it just

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Speaker 2: terms of game theory, and my thing is like, if

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Speaker 2: you're one of these people, and I myself in this camp,

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Speaker 2: for sure, I guess taking to someone who's never cast

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Speaker 2: a vote in potential election, but as someone who's covered them,

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Speaker 2: I do put myself in the camp of I'm on

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Speaker 2: team democracy, right, And if you're one of these people

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Speaker 2: who walks around saying Donald Drum is an existential threat

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Speaker 2: to American democracy, including on the Biden campaign, Like what's

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Speaker 2: your real principled argument in which you'd say Nicki Haley

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Speaker 2: should drop out? Because what if the argument is, you know,

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Speaker 2: this is an existential threat to democracy Donald Trump. Why

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Speaker 2: shouldn't anybody who's trying to take the fight to Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump who's not just another autocrat, which I don't think

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Speaker 2: anybody think they say Nicki Haley is. You might think

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Speaker 2: she's too conservative, but no one thinks she's that. She's

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Speaker 2: like missus Hitler. It's like, why would you not? Why

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Speaker 2: are you not for anybody who's like leaving it all

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Speaker 2: in the field and trying to keep Cheetah Mussolini from

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Speaker 2: a retaking power. But don't get that confused with thinking, oh,

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Speaker 2: she's got a chance. You know, It's like she's not

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Speaker 2: a good chance. Like let's put all of our eggs

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Speaker 2: in the Nicki Haley basket. She's looks likely to get

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Speaker 2: creamed in South Carolina if she lasts even that law.

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Speaker 2: The numbers would say she'll probably get beaten pretty stilely

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Speaker 2: in her home state, and then it will then I think,

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Speaker 2: probably be over because the money will up and she

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Speaker 2: probably won't be too humiliated to go forward, but why

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Speaker 2: not spend one more month here and sort of see

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Speaker 2: how it plays out in terms of her attractions she

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Speaker 2: gets and and what might happen to him? And again

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Speaker 2: not like kind of wish upon a star, but just like, hey,

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Speaker 2: like what's the dump side? That's ice my feeling about it.

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Speaker 2: And I will say one last thing about the difference

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Speaker 2: between the Biden thing, the one thing that Biden people

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Speaker 2: will tell you that I have to give them just

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Speaker 2: say it out loud. They would say, well, even though

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden has become coming fourth in Iowa and comes

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Speaker 2: just in New Hampshire, there was a path for us

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Speaker 2: even then that doesn't exist for her in the data,

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Speaker 2: which was to say they were like, we had always

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Speaker 2: been in the number of one or number two positions

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Speaker 2: in South Carolina because we had a kind of popularity

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Speaker 2: with black voters, which is the key constituency of the

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Speaker 2: Democratic Party. We didn't know whether that would collapse after

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Speaker 2: Iowa New Hampshire. But we had a path in a way,

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Speaker 2: a theoretical path in a way that Nikki Hilly does

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Speaker 2: not right now. And that's true, But again that was

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Speaker 2: not his public argument. It was why are you trying

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Speaker 2: to shut down democracy. We've only had these two more

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Speaker 2: states voted, so let's hear from some more people. And

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Speaker 2: I think if you basically buy that, you know, you've

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Speaker 2: got to kind of apply it both to Haley and

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Speaker 2: to Biden in the same way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Nikki Haley is serving the same purpose

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Speaker 1: that George Conway is and that Egene Carroll is right.

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Speaker 1: They're driving Donald Trump crazy.

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Speaker 2: Yes, And if you believe if you look at all

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Speaker 2: this data that we've seen now out of Iowa and

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Speaker 2: New Hampshire, which is people are finding different ways and

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Speaker 2: angles into it. I'm with Joe Scarro on the you know,

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Speaker 2: if Barack Obama ran the Iowa caucuses in twenty sixteen

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Speaker 2: after he was on his way out presidency, if he

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Speaker 2: ran the Ilocacca's third time as an incumbent quasi company

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Speaker 2: he came back, now, you know, he'd get ninety percent

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Speaker 2: of the Democratic votes. It is striking that Trump is

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Speaker 2: kind of just a little over fifty with the voting

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Speaker 2: electorates that he's had. There is a lot of those

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Speaker 2: people who voted against him, Republicans who voted against him.

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Speaker 2: Although in New Hampshire twenty five percent of them who did.

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Speaker 2: A lot of those people will end up voting for

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Speaker 2: him in the general election, but not all. And to

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Speaker 2: the extent that Nikki Haley is out there publicly in

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Speaker 2: front of Republican audience, on Republican media in other places,

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Speaker 2: highlighting his increasingly aduled mental state, his increasingly obvious unsuitability, unfitness,

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Speaker 2: inability to just mentally handle the job. Again, if you

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Speaker 2: think he's an existential threat to democracy, She's gonna have

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Speaker 2: a big public platform for the next month or harberlonga

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Speaker 2: she states in if she changes five Republican voters' minds

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Speaker 2: over the course of the next month. From my point

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Speaker 2: of view, she making an important argument. Diana, Yes, Diana,

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Speaker 2: exactly right.

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Speaker 1: This was I thought a little bit shitty of her.

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Speaker 1: There were so many Democrats and also never Trump Republicans

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Speaker 1: or not Democrats, but New Hampshire's estate with a lot

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Speaker 1: of undeclared voters. A lot of those undeclared voters voted

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Speaker 1: for her, maybe not so much because they loved her,

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Speaker 1: but because they saw Trump as an existential threat to democracy,

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Speaker 1: as we all do. And she then was sort of

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Speaker 1: not so grateful for it. But I do think that

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Speaker 1: makes your point.

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Speaker 2: Was when you say she was not grateful for what

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Speaker 2: do you mean by that? I'm not challenging him. What

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Speaker 2: are you keying off of there?

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Speaker 1: She said something to the effect of something negative about

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Speaker 1: Democrats in the state, and I can't remember exactly what

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Speaker 1: it was. They were people who really went out of

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Speaker 1: their way, and maybe they didn't vote for her as

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Speaker 1: much as they voted against Trump.

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Speaker 2: Right, I don't know exactly what you're referring to, but

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Speaker 2: I will say this. You know, politics, as they say Plalie,

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Speaker 2: as you know, is not bean bag. And if you

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Speaker 2: were Nikki Haley and you wake up the day after

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Speaker 2: the dam sure primary and you see that Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: has beating you among Republicans by fifty points, and you

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Speaker 2: know that any chance was a one percent chance, infantestinal

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Speaker 2: chance to beat Donald Trump and and to go deep

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Speaker 2: into the primaries against him, because that never has to change.

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Speaker 2: Most of these primaries coming forward are just are just Republicans.

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Speaker 2: And if you get beat seventy five to twenty five

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Speaker 2: in other states among Republicans, I mean, you really are

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Speaker 2: look like kind of moron to go forward. So if

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Speaker 2: your fundamental political imperative going forward is how do I

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Speaker 2: get more Republicans to vote for me. There is some

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Speaker 2: political logic, even though it seems a little ungrateful and

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Speaker 2: maybe even more the little lollaigrateful, but there is some

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Speaker 2: political logic in trying to basically change is trying to

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Speaker 2: project the notion not that you're like shitting on Democrats

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Speaker 2: who voted for you, who decided to come out for

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Speaker 2: the primary, but that like, you can't allow yourself to

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Speaker 2: be cast in the minds of South Carolina Republicans as

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Speaker 2: the candidate of never Trump Democrats in New Hampshire, right,

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Speaker 2: and so the idea that you have some imperative to

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Speaker 2: rhetorically put some distance between yourself and those people who

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Speaker 2: supported you. I understand that. I mean again, I don't

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Speaker 2: you have to YEA, she could do it in a

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Speaker 2: shittier way or a less shitty way, but I at

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Speaker 2: least understand why she feels like she needs to not

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Speaker 2: basically wear the mantle of you. You can't walk out of

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Speaker 2: your Hampshire with a big, giant blue overcoat on, you know.

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Speaker 2: It's like, you know, with the big with the ad

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Speaker 2: on the back, and that's not going to help her

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Speaker 2: in her cause of beating Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: It is interesting to me though, that Donald Trump is

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Speaker 1: threatening to blacklist mega donors who donate to Nikki Haley.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is a guy who really needs money,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of it he needs for his legal challenges.

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Speaker 2: Tim Miller and I did this interview with ann On

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Speaker 2: for the last episode in Out of Las bi Us

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Speaker 2: where he did this without with Cary Lake. This all

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Speaker 2: turned into a whole thing, but we're Bannon basically said

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Speaker 2: not basically, I mean really said, believing that and none

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Speaker 2: seeing the view that the twenty twenty election was stolen

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Speaker 2: is now a necessity a litmus test for being in

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Speaker 2: the MAGA movement, right. He was like, if you don't

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Speaker 2: believe that, if you want to test to that publicly,

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Speaker 2: you're out right. I tried to get carry Lake to

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Speaker 2: say on camera. I just kept asking you, this is

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Speaker 2: what our fight on camera about this. I was like,

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Speaker 2: will you just say, with Steve Bennis, is that your

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Speaker 2: review that if if you don't believe the twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: election was stolen, you're not a member of a good

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Speaker 2: standing up the Maga movement slash Republican Party. And she

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Speaker 2: because she has some sense of like what she's going

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Speaker 2: to need to do if she's going to be a

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Speaker 2: successful at Arizona, would not go that spar And the

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Speaker 2: reason I raised that whole thing is that there's a

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Speaker 2: flavor of this in a lot of things that are

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Speaker 2: coming out of them now, whether it's the things that

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Speaker 2: Marjorie Taylor Greenen said on stage on Tuesday or this

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Speaker 2: Trump thing about the donors, which is the purity test,

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Speaker 2: the litmus test. And we're the opposite of a big

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Speaker 2: ten Republicanism. We are not interested in a broader and

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Speaker 2: broadening the coalition or welcoming Republicans who are on the fence,

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Speaker 2: Republicans who are for somebody else work for Like if

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Speaker 2: you're not in the cult, and not just in the cult,

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Speaker 2: but like you know, someone who is like whatever, they

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Speaker 2: have the Scout rankings, so like you know, there's like

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Speaker 2: boy scout, you know. But if you're not like an eagle,

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Speaker 2: if you don't, we're like an eagle scout pin of maga.

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Speaker 2: You know, we don't want a part of you. In fact,

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Speaker 2: we're going to read you out of the party. There's

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Speaker 2: part of that that you look at and you go

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Speaker 2: that is worrying and dangerous and symptomatic of a kind

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Speaker 2: of fascist impulse and a cult impulse. And also the

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Speaker 2: way I look at it is it's just like politically

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Speaker 2: self defeating, because you know, in twenty twenty, Trump's and

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Speaker 2: his team surprised us all because we often we analysts,

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Speaker 2: by pundits whoever, we would often point out that it

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Speaker 2: between twenty seventeen and twenty twenty eight, Trump had done

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Speaker 2: nothing to expand his coalition, and we're like, how is

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Speaker 2: he ever going to win against the twenty twenty Democratic

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Speaker 2: nominee if he's brought no one in nobody who had

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Speaker 2: didn't vote from a twenty sixteen And they would say,

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Speaker 2: that's not where we're going to get our votes. We're

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Speaker 2: going to get our votes from people who are maga,

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Speaker 2: just didn't vote in twenty sixteen. We're going to go

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Speaker 2: out and find the voters who didn't. We're going to

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Speaker 2: turn those people out. And a lot of us were

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Speaker 2: skeptical and we were wrong. They found a lot of

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Speaker 2: those millions. There's but that is a population now that

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Speaker 2: I don't think there's anybody in Trump's world. It is

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Speaker 2: in his increasingly actual, real, sophisticated campaign. I don't think

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Speaker 2: anybody who would say that there's a lot of untapped

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Speaker 2: from that boat total in twenty twenty, that there's a

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Speaker 2: ton millions more of Trump voters who didn't vote from

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Speaker 2: in sixty and didn't vote from in twenty, which means

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Speaker 2: that if you're going to beat Biden, you're going to

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Speaker 2: have to get some of voters, not necessarily from the middle,

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Speaker 2: but certainly like some of these mainstream Republican voters who

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Speaker 2: Trump is now saying, if you write a check to

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Speaker 2: Nikiy Hiley are out, you know we're going to send

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Speaker 2: you off to an internment camp. I just think like

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Speaker 2: that's not the way to win. It strikes me as

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Speaker 2: letting your cultish and authoritarian and autocratic and fascistic kind

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Speaker 2: of impulses overcome self interest in terms of putting together

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Speaker 2: the vote totals they're going to need in these in

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Speaker 2: these battlegrin states to actually beat Biden. Although you know,

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Speaker 2: someone who is being really conspiratorial could say it doesn't

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Speaker 2: really matter because they're just going to try to steal

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Speaker 2: the election by force anyway. But I think he's paying

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Speaker 2: himself into a corner. Both your point, which is he

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Speaker 2: needs the money, that's true, he also needs the votes

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Speaker 2: and Neither one of those things is terbed by reading

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Speaker 2: the Riot Act, reading, you know, by expelling, expunging, purging

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Speaker 2: anybody who dares to utter a word of support from

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Speaker 2: bird braiding. I mean sarcastic when I say that bird

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Speaker 2: braid Nicki Haley or what does he call her down? Nimbre.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's back and forth between the two.

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Speaker 2: I liked what he had, Like he couldn't really get

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Speaker 2: nimrata out, so he went for like a slightly more

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Speaker 2: vaguely I'm not sure how that's even more big racist thing,

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Speaker 2: which is the Nimbre thing. And he says he Nimbre.

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Speaker 2: That's an email like to call her. I'm like, you know,

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Speaker 2: I think about the talking head song I Zimbra. I

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Speaker 2: don't know this this weird.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much, John.

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Speaker 2: I hope you'll come back always, always, to the extent

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Speaker 2: that I'm physically able. I'm I'm always precious.

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Speaker 1: Greg Sargent is a reporter at The New Republic. Welcome

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Speaker 1: back to Fast Politics, my body.

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Speaker 3: Greg Sargent, Hey, how's it going.

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Speaker 1: We're delighted to have you here, but also excited because

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Speaker 1: you have a new home. Tell us a little bit

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Speaker 1: about that.

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Speaker 3: Well, I left the Washington Post after fifteen years there,

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Speaker 3: and it was really a great ride. But now I'm

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Speaker 3: at the New Republic and I'm really psyched because it's

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Speaker 3: edited by Mike Tamaski, who's an old friend of mine

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Speaker 3: and is a brilliant guy and a great writer and editor.

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Speaker 3: And we are going to have a daily podcast at

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Speaker 3: the New Republic, and I really hope your listeners will

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Speaker 3: tune in and check it out.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we are big fans of the New Republic here

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Speaker 1: and also of Mike Tamaski. So let's talk for a

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Speaker 1: minute about this was the week of New Hampshire Joe Biden.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to like pause for a moment and remind

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Speaker 1: everyone of what happened last year, which is like a

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Speaker 1: million years ago. Biden decided not to have the Democratic

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Speaker 1: Party start its primary process in New Hampshire, a high

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Speaker 1: stake scambal really, because it meant that Biden was actually

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Speaker 1: not on the New Hampshire ballot. Can we talk about.

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Speaker 3: That, well, I mean it looked it obviously worked out

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Speaker 3: just fine. I think the big news on the Democratic

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Speaker 3: side out of last night is that the primary is

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Speaker 3: a big nothing burger. I mean, don't you think that.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, what I think is really interesting about it

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Speaker 1: was so Biden had made a promise to Representative Cliburn

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Speaker 1: of South Carolina and also, I would add to the

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Speaker 1: Democratic base which has been really saved by black women

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Speaker 1: and also people of color more generally. New Hampshire's a

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Speaker 1: very white state, and he had said, we're going to

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Speaker 1: make South Carolina go first, and New Hampshire was basically like,

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Speaker 1: fuck you, We're going to go first, and you're not

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Speaker 1: going to be on the ballot. You know, there was

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Speaker 1: a potential for a disaster here, and in fact, the

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Speaker 1: people who were hoping that there would be disaster were

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Speaker 1: Dean Phillips and Mary and Williamson went to New Hampshire

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Speaker 1: and decided that they were going to take advantage of

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Speaker 1: this opportunity, and they spent, you know, the last two

432
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Speaker 1: weeks in New Hampshire eating waffles, talking to the press,

433
00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,399
Speaker 1: and it didn't work out for them at all.

434
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 3: We often, as people who are obsessed to a very

435
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:25,879
Speaker 3: profound pathological fault with the details of politics, we often

436
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 3: sort of admit to ourselves that regular people are not

437
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 3: paying attention to the details the way we are. Here's

438
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 3: a place where that's really true. Like, if you think

439
00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 3: anyone out there who's normal unlike us, gives a shit

440
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 3: about primary schedules, you are wrong. Nobody cares about that stuff.

441
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:50,080
Speaker 1: So Biden got about sixty seven percent of the vote.

442
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 1: He was the right in candidate, So that is like

443
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 1: pretty unbelievably spectacular.

444
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:56,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

445
00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,320
Speaker 3: By the way, there's another thing here, right, which I

446
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,920
Speaker 3: think we often get wrong. By we, I mean the

447
00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 3: kind of collective commentariat or whatever, we constantly look at

448
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:11,160
Speaker 3: this or that poll that seems to show dissension among Democrats, right,

449
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 3: But the bottom line, Biden is pretty popular with the

450
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 3: Democratic base. This is a hard thing for a lot

451
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,280
Speaker 3: of pundits to admit, but it's just the truth.

452
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 1: Right, And in fact, during the New Hampshire primary, there

453
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 1: was a lot of punditry on CNN. I'm just going

454
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:27,919
Speaker 1: to call it what it is that said that no

455
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,440
Speaker 1: one wants Biden and that these two eighty year olds

456
00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 1: are both as unpopular as each other, which again is

457
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:40,359
Speaker 1: like it really is ultimately medium malpractice to compare a

458
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 1: guy with ninety one criminal counts to a guy who

459
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 1: has brought manufacturing back and is building chipsy They might

460
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 1: both be old but that's where it ends, and I

461
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 1: thought it was interesting. I'm just going to read you

462
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,640
Speaker 1: this one tweet, which I think from Kyle Griffin, who's

463
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 1: a producer at MSNBC. Biden is on track to win

464
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 1: more votes in New Hampshire as a writing candidate than

465
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 1: Barack Obama did when he ran for reelection in twenty twelve,

466
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 1: and Obama ran unopposed and was on the ballot.

467
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 3: There, wow, yeah, you see there you go right. I

468
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 3: want to say that I think the media worm is

469
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 3: turning a little bit. Yeah, explain so, as you say,

470
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,439
Speaker 3: there was all this kind of media obsessing about how

471
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 3: there's some sort of equivalence between Trump and Biden in

472
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 3: the sense that, oh, they're both old, they're both despised.

473
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm exaggerating a little. That wasn't quite what

474
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:37,120
Speaker 3: the press said, but it was almost. But the real

475
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 3: truth of the matter is that what we're really seeing

476
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 3: in these primaries is that Republicans are the party with

477
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:47,879
Speaker 3: the problem, and that Playbook actually got at this today

478
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 3: and they're kind of media I think that reporters and

479
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 3: commentators really pay close attention to what Playbook and Punchbowl

480
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 3: and all those news news or sheets say, and they said,

481
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 3: the story out of the exit polls is that Republicans

482
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 3: are the party that's divided and suffering from dissension. I mean, look,

483
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:14,639
Speaker 3: it's actually starting to dawn on people that a fairly

484
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 3: non trivial swath of Republican and GOP leaning independent voters

485
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,400
Speaker 3: actually thinks it's a problem to have a criminalized the nominee, right,

486
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 3: which you would think that people would have figured that

487
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: one out earlier. But there's just this weird built in

488
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,919
Speaker 3: tendency in our discourse which just kind of treats Trump

489
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:39,440
Speaker 3: as invincible. Everything makes him stronger. He's using the trials

490
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 3: to reach voters, He's owning us all with all these

491
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 3: clever maneuvers. He's got us all completely baffled at has

492
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 3: continued iron grip on the party, that sort of stuff,

493
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 3: and it's smoking mirrors a lot of it. We're going

494
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 3: to be talking a lot like this on the podcast,

495
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 3: by the way, a lot of meeting.

496
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: I'm a New Republic podcast with Greg Sargent.

497
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 3: No.

498
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 1: I think that's a really good point. And the thing

499
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 1: that I am just completely struck by is, yeah, Trump

500
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 1: has this power, but also Trump, you know, the mainstream

501
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 1: media is just obsessed with letting Trump get away with it.

502
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 3: We had a great peace on that recently.

503
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 1: Oh thank you there.

504
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 3: About the press just really not being up to this moment.

505
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,160
Speaker 1: It's so depressing. I mean, I have to say there's

506
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 1: nothing that there is literally absolutely nothing about it that

507
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 1: doesn't just make me so upset. So let's talk for

508
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 1: a minute about what the Republican primary looks like. There

509
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 1: was a lot of excitement about Nikki Haley. I, as

510
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 1: a person who live in New York City and am

511
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 1: surrounded by people who are text cut enthusiasts, had this

512
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: moment where they were like, Nikki Haley is going to

513
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 1: be our savior, and I was like, you guys, the

514
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,679
Speaker 1: math is not mathing. So Nikki Haley came in third

515
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 1: in Iowa, came in second in New Hampshire, and Donald

516
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 1: Trump got to give it to him. He had a

517
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 1: good point. She didn't come in second, She came in last.

518
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 3: Right, although I do think her showing was significantly stronger

519
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 3: than Trump himself expected it to be. And that matter,

520
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 3: and he was just he was yet again melting down

521
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 3: about it in spectacular fashion.

522
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 1: For sure, he was absolutely melting down about it. And

523
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: the polls were wrong again, right, Like the polls showed

524
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: that she was losing by fifty points and she lost

525
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 1: by whatever.

526
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 3: Such an important point that the polls got that wrong.

527
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 3: They're getting it wrong on Trump's strength.

528
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again this is another important point though, I

529
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 1: did think about last night, which was you had a

530
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 1: lot of independence and some Democrats switch parties and switch back, right,

531
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: you can switch parties. Their a lot of unaffiliated voters

532
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire, and a lot of them really came

533
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,159
Speaker 1: in to stop Trump and that was their goal. And

534
00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 1: there was voters switch in. Then Nikki Haley was you

535
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 1: came after them, which I thought was an odd move.

536
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 3: Yeah. And there's something else about the independent vote that

537
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 3: I think is really important to underscore, which is that

538
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 3: the exit polls in New Hampshire showed that nearly half

539
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 3: of voters in the GOP primary. Now this is loaded

540
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 3: up with independence and maybe even others, but that's important, right,

541
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 3: because nearly half of the voters on the GOP primary

542
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 3: said that if Trump is convicted of a crime, he'll

543
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 3: be unfit to serve nearly half. And there's a number

544
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 3: that I still think of as extremely important. From the

545
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 3: recent Washington Post poll.

546
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 1: These are from the exit polls. I want to add

547
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 1: that exit polling tends to be a little more accurate

548
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 1: than calling people on the phone.

549
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 3: Right, It's really important that nearly half of GOP primary

550
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 3: voters said that they'd see Trump as unfit if he's convicted.

551
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,640
Speaker 3: And by the way, what I was going to say

552
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 3: is the Washington Post pole, the most recent one had

553
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 3: fifty seven percent of independent nationally saying that they believe

554
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 3: the prosecutions are Trump of Trump are lawful as opposed

555
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 3: to political, and fifty eight percent of independence nationally said

556
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 3: that they believe Trump probably are definitely committed crimes related

557
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 3: to January sixth. Now, this dynamics going to get worse.

558
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 3: We could have the January sixth trial jury just found

559
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 3: that he had sexually abused E Gene Carroll. These things

560
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 3: are going to deepen his problems for him, and I

561
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,919
Speaker 3: really am glad to see that the press is finally

562
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:29,959
Speaker 3: starting to pick this up.

563
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 1: One of the things that I think is an interesting

564
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: dynamic here too, is that Trump the candidate, actually I

565
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 1: think is going to get very soon into conflict with

566
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 1: Trump the defendant. Yes, he wants to go into all

567
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 1: these court cases and argue politically because he thinks it

568
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 1: will help him, which is certainly possible, but it really

569
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: will hurt him with voters. I mean, that's what these

570
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 1: polls are saying.

571
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 3: That's absolutely right, and it's true as you say that

572
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 3: it can help him in a narrow sense. It's clear

573
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 3: that the indictments helped them in the primaries, right, They

574
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 3: helped them out Planetic Dissenttus because Dessantus wasn't perceived as

575
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 3: I don't know, a victim of the deep state, a

576
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 3: sufficiently victimized figure for the Republican base to support them.

577
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 3: But look, I mean when a last Deefenek recently described

578
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 3: the January sixth prisoners as quote unquote hostages, a number

579
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 3: of vulnerable House Republicans actually ran away from that comment

580
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,159
Speaker 3: and they went out there and they forcefully stressed that

581
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,919
Speaker 3: these are not hostages, they are criminal dependents. But what

582
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 3: I take from that is that in tough districts across

583
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 3: the country, it's toxic for a Republican to be aligned

584
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 3: with the MAGA position that the prosecution of January sixth

585
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 3: attackers is illegitimate.

586
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 1: And this gets back to this idea that I feel

587
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 1: like we should all as pundits get tattooed onto our foreheads,

588
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 1: which is this idea that, as we have seen again

589
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 1: and again and again, trump Ism wins a primary and

590
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 1: loses a general. And we saw that with Carrie Lake.

591
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 1: We saw that in Pennsylvania. You know, yes, in states,

592
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 1: in ruby red states, but even in Ohio, jd Vance

593
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 1: ran about ten points behind what he should have.

594
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's one hundred percent, right. I mean,

595
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two, the big story of that election

596
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:26,880
Speaker 3: was that the mega candidates lost a lot of winnable races.

597
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 3: I mean, everything about the fundamentals tilted towards a Republican victory.

598
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 3: And again, as you say, the punditry was in denial

599
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 3: about this. Remember, and I actually committed a mistake on

600
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 3: this too. I think I actually didn't expect democracy to

601
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 3: matter quite as much as it did to voters and

602
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 3: in a very pleasant surprise. And I think the January

603
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 3: sixth hearings, by the way, played a major role in this,

604
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: and Liz Cheney played a major role in it too,

605
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 3: especially with independent voters. Right. Yes, it turned out that

606
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 3: the one to two punch of Dobbs and January sixth

607
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 3: really resulted in kind of a toxic combo for the

608
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 3: more MAGA oriented candidates in one statewide race after another

609
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 3: they lost. Oh yeah, And it's just amazing to me

610
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 3: that this isn't more part of the dialogue. I have

611
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 3: this term twenty sixteen brain, and I think it's really

612
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 3: like a syndrome that a lot of people are suffering from.

613
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 3: As if the only national election in the last seven

614
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 3: years or so, it's eight years that mattered is the

615
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 3: twenty sixteen election. We had three national elections since then,

616
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 3: and Republicans, especially mega candidates, and Trump lost them all

617
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 3: or dramatically underperformed in them, as in twenty twenty two,

618
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 3: which is a bit of a mixed verdict but basically

619
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 3: a democratic win. Right, It's not part of the discussion.

620
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 3: It's so bizarre.

621
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's really a good point. The problem

622
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 1: for a lot of us in pendent world, but also

623
00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 1: like just in the world itself, is that twenty sixteen

624
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 1: came so out of left field. And as I was

625
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 1: talking to Brian Klass about this, is that twenty sixteen

626
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: was a shifting electorate that shifted right for Donald Trump,

627
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: and now we are in a you know, we haven't

628
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: really come back again. We don't know, right, we don't

629
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 1: know what the shifting electorate will shift for this time.

630
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 1: But if you look at Iowa had this very low turnout,

631
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 1: New Hampshire had much higher turnout, But you have to

632
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 1: wonder how much of that was much higher turnout, much

633
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: closer margins. Again, so you clearly see that in New

634
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 1: Hampshire they were certainly polling with a twenty sixteen electorate

635
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: in mind. Right, Yeah, so I think that's interesting, oh

636
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 1: for sure.

637
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and it's true as you say that

638
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 3: there was a legitimate reasoning to be shocked and disoriented

639
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 3: by twenty sixteen, right, yeah, And look, of course Trump

640
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 3: can win this time. Right. There are a lot lot

641
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 3: of scenarios you can imagine in which Trump pulls out

642
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 3: a victory in the end here, but one can acknowledge

643
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 3: that without sort of erasing the last three national elections

644
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 3: from the discussion. Right. The bottom line is that there's

645
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 3: is an anti Magam majority out there that just keeps

646
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 3: showing up. And the special elections. I think we've all

647
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 3: heard the reasons why the special elections aren't all that predictive,

648
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 3: but boy, there's a lot of special election wins for

649
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 3: Democrats piling up right now, and that is pretty consistent

650
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 3: with the idea that that anti MAGA majority is.

651
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 1: Durable, right, And I think that's a really, really, really

652
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 1: good point. Again, this is this idea that some of

653
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 1: the pre existing mechanisms for covering political races really don't

654
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 1: serve democracy.

655
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, the conventions of political reporting still haven't caught up

656
00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 3: with the problem. I guess is one put it.

657
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 1: You've written it, yeah, and you've written about it too.

658
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 1: So much of the framing here is about comparison, and

659
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: by comparing these two candidates, you're actually normalizing autocracy.

660
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think there's also a built in bias

661
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 3: on It's funny, it's kind of ironic that it results

662
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: in a media bias. And this goes back to what

663
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 3: you were saying about sort of the twenty sixteen shock, right,

664
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 3: post twenty sixteen dramatic stress disorder or something maybe that yes, right,

665
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 3: that people are still suffering from. I mean, if you

666
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 3: think about it, right, a lot of reporters and commentators

667
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 3: say to themselves the one thing they dread most is

668
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 3: to miss a big story, right, And so the feeling was,

669
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 3: oh my god, we missed this ground swell of right

670
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 3: wing populist support, and now there's like a bias in

671
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 3: the other direction, this constant hunt for signs that that

672
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 3: kind of right wing populist swell that upsert is a

673
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 3: real and formidable force, or maybe is more formidable than

674
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 3: it really is. And so again what gets erased are

675
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 3: the examples of all those can that it's losing.

676
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 1: Exactly, Greg Sergeant, please come.

677
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 3: Back, Hey, you have to come on our pod.

678
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 1: Dave Wigel is a reporter at Semaphore. Welcome to Fast Politics.

679
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: I'm so happy to have you. Dave.

680
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 3: Hello, it's good to be here.

681
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:26,959
Speaker 1: Where are you.

682
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 4: I am in Washington, d C. Getting ready for the

683
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 4: June primary. Now I'm just I always expected to come

684
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 4: back here after New Hampshire had voted. This was the

685
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 4: earliest call I can recall.

686
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 2: In New Hampshire.

687
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 4: That's good writing in Bicky Haley's victory of party. And

688
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 4: she walked out in eight nineteen and the Pols have

689
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 4: closed nineteen minutes earlier to give her. I guess you'd

690
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 4: have to call a concession speech factually, but it wasn't

691
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 4: really net So I got back here right away.

692
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 1: So I think of you, Dave as the guy who

693
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: is everywhere, like when something happens, I think of you

694
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 1: as someone who goes everywhere, and that is a high

695
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:05,479
Speaker 1: compliment from someone like me who has my own weird

696
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 1: phobia is about going anywhere. So you were in New

697
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 1: Hampshire on the ground. So what I'm hoping you can

698
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 1: tell us is there was a huge turnout in New Hampshire.

699
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 1: Numbers much bigger than in Iowa, where there was about

700
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 1: a seventy thousand people less turnout besides the weather. Why

701
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:28,760
Speaker 1: was there that big difference and can you extrapolate anything

702
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 1: from it?

703
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:31,799
Speaker 4: I was surprised that turnout was that high, and I

704
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 4: shouldn't have been. The Secretary of State is his first cycle,

705
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 4: but he's worth been working in the office for a while.

706
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 4: He predicted record high turnout for Republican primary. He predicted

707
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 4: low turnout actually under sold what turnout would look like

708
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 4: for Democrats. It's about twenty thousand more people showed up

709
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 4: in that primary than he thought. I was only surprised

710
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 4: because on the ground there was not the sort of

711
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:55,319
Speaker 4: surging enthusiasm that you've seen before competitive New Hampshire primaries

712
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 4: and polling, especially the one track and pull from Suffolk

713
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 4: in the Boston Globe was showing Trump blowout, which which

714
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:02,879
Speaker 4: it kind of was. I mean, there are not many

715
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 4: fifteen point or I think in the net it's gonna

716
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,359
Speaker 4: be about twelve point results that you don't think are

717
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 4: a blowout, they're probably showing twenty points. I think two

718
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 4: things happened. One, the weather was pretty good, literally sixty

719
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 4: degrees warmer than I want in New Hampshire on latch

720
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 4: day it started as snow, but only after voting was done,

721
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 4: not that that's an impediment to people in New Hitsher, So

722
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 4: that helped. I think some unlikely voters turned out. And

723
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 4: there were a lot of people who did not show

724
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 4: up to political events, were never going to show up

725
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 4: to Nikki Hailey rally in person, but who voted for

726
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 4: her just because they wanted to slow Trump down. So

727
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:34,720
Speaker 4: a combination of Trump having a very good turnout machine,

728
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 4: Hailey having a decent, very decent turnout machine between her

729
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 4: and America's prosperity, and just these unlikely voters who said,

730
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,240
Speaker 4: screw it, I'm going to drive five minutes to the school,

731
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 4: walking to the polls, take thirty seconds and vote against

732
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 4: Trump by hooting for her.

733
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 1: So that's what I actually wanted to ask you, because

734
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:55,240
Speaker 1: I had dinner on Sunday night with a political scientist

735
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 1: basic the UK and we were talking about the shifting electorate.

736
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 1: Why some of the reason that polling has become so hard,

737
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 1: besides the fact that nobody has phones, is because Trump

738
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 1: won on this electorate that did not exist before Trump

739
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 1: and has not really existed after Trump except in twenty

740
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,879
Speaker 1: twenty sort of. And so I'm wondering if what we

741
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,320
Speaker 1: can get about that shifting electorate when we look at

742
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 1: because Iowa is white and tends to be more religious.

743
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 1: And notice how I didn't say evangelical, because I feel

744
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:32,760
Speaker 1: like it's used in a sort of pejorative there, though

745
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 1: evangelicals tend to support Trump, So do with that what

746
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 1: you will. In New Hampshire, it's more of a mix.

747
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,760
Speaker 1: So that sort of Trump voter, that low frequency voter,

748
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: probably would short up more in Iowa than in New Hampshire.

749
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, actually one side note not sure how it fits

750
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 4: completely in, but there is a special election to replace

751
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 4: a Democrat and a Democratic seat in New Hampshire and

752
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 4: republic has won it because the high turnout, And I

753
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 4: guess I bring that up because the atypical voter attorney

754
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 4: off for avery special election has been a college educated

755
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 4: moderate who doesn't like Trump and Mega and so Trump

756
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 4: changed the electorate in two ways. Most importantly, he converted

757
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 4: a lot of white voters without college degrees, which there

758
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 4: are a fewer NAMESAVM Aaron Iowa, but a lot converted

759
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:24,399
Speaker 4: them to MAGA voters. And he alienated college educated white

760
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,959
Speaker 4: voters who were voting for Romney a few years ago

761
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 4: and have turned around. Don't like this version of the

762
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 4: problem the party. They're going to vote for christ and

763
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 4: Hudu not anymore because he's retiring. They don't like probably

764
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 4: and they turn on everything. The reason Democrats have been

765
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 4: doing so well and special elections they actually flipped to

766
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 4: Seed in Florida, R De Santas dropped out is those

767
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 4: voters they are aware of when elections are They don't

768
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 4: need a lot of cajoling to turn out. They want

769
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 4: to vote against MAGA for many reasons, from Trump personally

770
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 4: to abortion.

771
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 3: Rights to the uncoastless.

772
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,760
Speaker 4: They see. These are people who drive past a neighbor

773
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 4: who has a Trump flag with the F word on

774
00:37:57,840 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 4: it and say, all right, that's not me. I'm going

775
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 4: to vote for whoever the ELF is running against ten.

776
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 4: And that's how we changed things. And you saw this

777
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 4: in Hailey did best in both Iowa and in New

778
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:08,879
Speaker 4: Hampshire in places with lots of those voters. She did

779
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 4: better in New Hampshire. It has more than turned out.

780
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 4: It's a little bit easier to turn out. Remember to

781
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 4: vote in Iowa. In Iowa, you need to show up

782
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 4: at the Republican caucuses at six point thirty and change

783
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 4: your illustration to Republican. In New Hampshire, if you're an

784
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 4: undeclared voter, which there are about three hundred and two thousand,

785
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 4: you're already registered to vote, you to show up and

786
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 4: say I'm pulling a Republican ballot and then you lease.

787
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 4: And so it was easier to do that. A lot

788
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 4: of those voters turned out. You can see that in

789
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 4: places like Hanover where Dartmouth is, and places like Durham

790
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 4: where the University New Hampshire conquered, places where there are

791
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 4: concentrations of college educated voters who do not like Donald Trump.

792
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 4: She did very well and also very high Democratic turnout.

793
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 4: There were lots of Democrats showing up to write in

794
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 4: Joe Biden. Those are voters who might have skipped in

795
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,399
Speaker 4: the past, but Trump activates them and you were saved

796
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 4: if you're watching TV which from it. My favorite polling

797
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 4: was by CNN in University of New Hampshire, which said

798
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 4: where people media sources were from. If you watched local

799
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:03,320
Speaker 4: news or listened to New Hampshire Public Radio or CNN,

800
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 4: you were voting for Dickie Haley. If you watch conservative media,

801
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 4: you're vote to somebody else. But all those New Hampshire

802
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 4: Public radio folks, they were veryware in the primary, and

803
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 4: they were hearing about Trump all the time, and they said, Nope,

804
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 4: not that.

805
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so interesting. And then there was write in,

806
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 1: now let me ask you a question here. We tried

807
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 1: really hard not to talk about international stuff here, but

808
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 1: some people did write and ceasefire.

809
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 4: Not that many. So there was a campaign that formulated

810
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 4: you're right, and I wrote about it. So I'm saying I.

811
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 1: Didn't know the numbers on it, so I'm curious.

812
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 4: It is still being tabulated, probably going to be less

813
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 4: than two thousand people who did that. There was a

814
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:43,720
Speaker 4: campaign formed in really the final week of the election,

815
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 4: which is when most people are turning. In some New

816
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 4: Hampshire progresses hout a press conference saying we're going to

817
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 4: encourage you able to write in this term. There was

818
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 4: actually pushback from Democratic Majority for Israel, which is spending

819
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 4: a lot of money on pro Israel candidates trying to

820
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 4: defeat Israel critic usually in Devorkcratic primaries, protesting that putting

821
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 4: a letter and saying you shouldn't do this. That got

822
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 4: a little bit of atension. But when I talked to

823
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:08,320
Speaker 4: Mary and Williams, Cintin Phillips, they're saying, look, if you

824
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,840
Speaker 4: you do want to change the Biden approach here, you

825
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 4: should vote for a candidate who's not Joe Biden. Lower

826
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 4: his vote total, increase the denominator and make it look

827
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 4: like he's want fewer votes. Biden ends up with around

828
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 4: sixty five percent of the vote as a writing candidate,

829
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 4: Ceasefire ends up probably around two percent at peak, and

830
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 4: Biden alternatives get the rest. So there is a a

831
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 4: anti Biden vote here, but not explicitly vote for Ceespire vote.

832
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 4: There's not Williams said, is a pro Ceasefire candidate. You

833
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 4: have them together. That is a about six percent of

834
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 4: the New Hampshire primary electorate. The obvious example here is

835
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 4: let's make it like nineteen sixty eight, where nobody can

836
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 4: ignore the opposition to LDJ in the Vietnam War. That's

837
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 4: not what happened this time. And I think there are

838
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 4: lots of reasons for that.

839
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a totally different I mean, American soldiers are

840
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:51,720
Speaker 1: not there, right.

841
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 4: That's the reason you got it.

842
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, But I do think what's really interesting when we

843
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:59,320
Speaker 1: talk about this is like this does in some way.

844
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 1: I mean, New Hampshire really does make a case for

845
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 1: the strength of Biden. Right, he's not on the ballot.

846
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 1: You could argue that Biden got support. There was about

847
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: seventy thousand dollars spent in this state. Unless it's more.

848
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 1: You might know better than I do, Dave. What I

849
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 1: read was about seventy thousand to get people going to

850
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:22,439
Speaker 1: know that there was a write in campaign. I still

851
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 1: think that's pretty amazing, considering that he had snubbed the state, right,

852
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 1: he changed the like I thought New Hampshire would be

853
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 1: matter at him because he has robbed them of their

854
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 1: status as going first.

855
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, that was a surprise. I remember I was quoting

856
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 4: the Secretary of States projection. It was that maybe eighty

857
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 4: eight thousand people would bother showing up for the primary period,

858
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,399
Speaker 4: and there was a lot of wardbreed I'd say three

859
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 4: months ago that Biden was going to do this. One

860
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 4: thing that Governor Sanuna would point out a lot is

861
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 4: that Democrats didn't have their meeting on their primary schedule

862
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 4: until after twenty twenty two's midterms. He thought that would

863
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 4: be issue that would help Republicans, and they pushed it back,

864
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 4: so they didn't get they didn't get the bounce from that.

865
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 4: But while this primary was happening, some posters were asking, Okay,

866
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 4: when this is over, you voting for Joe Biden or

867
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:13,440
Speaker 4: Don Trump or je vote for Haley or Joe Biden.

868
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 4: And Haley was in a close race with Biden up

869
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:20,320
Speaker 4: a little. Biden was beating Donald Trump because these voters

870
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 4: were less offended they are Also was an impression, i

871
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 4: think enhanced by this right in campaign that look, we're

872
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 4: going to we're going to get the primary back. At

873
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 4: some point, there's going to be a twenty twenty eighth primary.

874
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 4: Democrats all realize they shouldn't have done this. They're going

875
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 4: to come back to it. So that was explicitly an

876
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 4: argument made by the right end effort. It was in grassroots.

877
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 4: If you can call Democratic lobbyists grassroots, they are.

878
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 3: And they were doing this.

879
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 4: About the without money from the campaign as Jim Damers

880
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 4: and Kathie Sulivan. That's what they were telling me and

881
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,720
Speaker 4: other people. Yes, if we have a great showing for Biden,

882
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 4: the parties had to come back to us. Actually, I

883
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 4: just I just was double checking. It's going to be

884
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 4: closer to one hundred and twenty five thousand New Hampshire

885
00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:59,320
Speaker 4: voters turned out. That is fifty percent more than a

886
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 4: state projective. Biden's going to end up. A stat that

887
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:03,880
Speaker 4: you're going to see thrown around is Biden got more

888
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 4: votes as a writing candidate as than Bertie got when

889
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 4: he won the twenty twenty primary.

890
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:10,320
Speaker 1: Or then Obama got right.

891
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 4: More than Obama got in twenty twelve when there was

892
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 4: no opposition, and when Democrats were just going to go

893
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 4: back and redominate him. They wanted to prove that. They said, Okay,

894
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 4: we know you're unhappy, but I should put it this way.

895
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,399
Speaker 4: The message was, we're not Iowa. We're not the state

896
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 4: that screws up the primary, that makes you stick around

897
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:28,800
Speaker 4: waiting for results. We're not the one that can't count.

898
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:31,319
Speaker 4: We are the one where people are engaged and they

899
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 4: will show up. You should really reconsider your purge of us,

900
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 4: not purge, but you know, your slight emotion of us.

901
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 4: In twenty twenty eight, I feel like they succeeded based

902
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 4: on the chatter right here from Democrats. Oh interesting, they're

903
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,879
Speaker 4: probably going to be revisiting this in three years and

904
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 4: if Biden's president and there's a new nomination, they fere confident,

905
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 4: they'll say they'll be able to come back and say

906
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 4: we took her a lump, come back and then do

907
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 4: the best primary, the one everyone loves. So come back

908
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 4: and hang out with Verban Supreme.

909
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 1: I know you've seen this, know you've seen this the

910
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:06,319
Speaker 1: CNN interview where they where they thought they were interviewing

911
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 1: a normal New Hampshire voter.

912
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 4: Yes, because Kathy Sullivan, that's one of the she was

913
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 4: leading the super pack in favor of writing and bibe.

914
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: Yes, can you talk? That was one of the great

915
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 1: moments ever. So they clearly think they have like a

916
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 1: little old lady here and she is explained to us

917
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 1: who she is again, because I thought that was great.

918
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 4: Kaffy Sullivan is a former New Hampshire Democratic Party chair.

919
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 4: She was there when Barack Obama won, so she was

920
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:37,760
Speaker 4: there for New Hampshire Democrats becoming not the dominant political party,

921
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:39,760
Speaker 4: but the party that wins most of the federal races.

922
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 4: Chris and Nunu has been able to break that. They're

923
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 4: trying to keep that record this year. But they've won

924
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:48,239
Speaker 4: governor's races, but they struggled and Senate and House races

925
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 4: since the party ship, since more college educated white voters

926
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 4: became Democrat. And yeah, she ran the super pac that

927
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:57,799
Speaker 4: was paying for signs and mail, not cdeds. You never

928
00:44:57,800 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 4: saw cded and said, right and Biden, but you saw

929
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:01,719
Speaker 4: a lot of road signs that were explaining how to

930
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 4: write it in. He paid for it. Yeah, And she

931
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,840
Speaker 4: said that what Dean Phillips is doing with obnoxious, I did.

932
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 1: Think that was sort of amazing. But Dean Phillips, he

933
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:11,760
Speaker 1: made sort of a similar case. I mean, I actually

934
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 1: read a really smart essay yesterday about how both Dean

935
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,439
Speaker 1: Phillips and it was just something I hadn't thought about.

936
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 1: Both Dean Phillips and Nikki Haley both ran sort of

937
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: on the idea that the other guy was too old,

938
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,719
Speaker 1: right that on this sort of agism platform, because Dean

939
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 1: Phillips has almost ideologically he's almost identical to Biden. In fact,

940
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 1: he's really for someone of his age. His beliefs are

941
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:40,880
Speaker 1: very center center for this Democratic Party. So I'm just

942
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 1: I'm just wondering. Neither of them really did what they

943
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 1: said they were going to do, or what they had

944
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 1: hoped they were going to do, But both of them

945
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 1: seem unfazed by their inability to deliver what they said

946
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 1: they were I mean, will they both stay in? Do

947
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 1: you think.

948
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 4: Phillips is staying in? Williamson is staying in. Phillip's in

949
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 4: public to me said he needs to get into the twenties,

950
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 4: which he did. As the votes are finally being counted.

951
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:07,359
Speaker 4: He barely made it into the twenties. That is, it's

952
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 4: going to round up to that. At least he underperformed

953
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 4: what he wanted. More quietly, they said, we did the twenties.

954
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 4: They really wanted some dramatic result closer to nineteen sixty

955
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:18,720
Speaker 4: eight when LBJ only gets forty nine percent of about

956
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,439
Speaker 4: Jim McCarthy gets forty one. They didn't get that half

957
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:23,840
Speaker 4: of Fiji. McCarthy is something you'll hear from Biden. Folks,

958
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 4: he has a problem where he is not really relevant

959
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,360
Speaker 4: in South Carolina, where voting is happening next thanks to

960
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:33,320
Speaker 4: Democratic calendar. He is not on the ballot in Nevada

961
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 4: because he've jett in the race too late to make

962
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 4: the ballot, so he doesn't get another test of how

963
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:40,359
Speaker 4: popular he is or how popular. The idea of replacing

964
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:43,800
Speaker 4: Biden with a generic Democrat, and this is Joe gander

965
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,320
Speaker 4: Yang likes, is that if if he just can convinced

966
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 4: to change his name to generic Democrat, I'll say, in

967
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 4: the country the Trump. He didn't get her test of

968
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 4: that until Michigan at the end of February, and then

969
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 4: is not clear exactly where else he competeing. One story

970
00:46:57,200 --> 00:47:00,080
Speaker 4: I've worked on by talking to Phillips is that he

971
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 4: missed some other deadline. So Florida, which is mid March,

972
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 4: has a primary that he's not going to be on

973
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 4: the ballot. For North Carolina is a Super Tuesday state.

974
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:09,399
Speaker 4: He's not in the ballot for that. So he put

975
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 4: five million dollars in his own money, which is considerable.

976
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:15,360
Speaker 4: He's a successful businessman before he became a member of Congress.

977
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 4: He's put money in the race he has a super

978
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 4: pac funding him that has not been that successful. It

979
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 4: did a really one of the better sidebar stories about

980
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 4: this race was the Dean Phillips super Pac creating an

981
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 4: hay I version of Dean Phillips, I can answer your

982
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 4: questions and then shutting it down. It's the super pac

983
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:35,359
Speaker 4: is funded in part by Bill Lackman. Sam Altman. He's

984
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 4: a little bit embarrassed by what the superPAC is doing,

985
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 4: but yeah, there's the money out there to keep funding him.

986
00:47:40,080 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 1: Wait, Sam Altman, Yeah.

987
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:43,760
Speaker 3: The open the Eye guy is also a THILD supporter.

988
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 1: Okay, wow, all right, good for that's great tech brows

989
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 1: once again. So now we go to South Carolina. I mean,

990
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:55,360
Speaker 1: it just seems as if Donald Trump can't help himself

991
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:57,719
Speaker 1: when it comes to Nicky Haley. Do you think that's

992
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 1: the dynamic? I mean, and ultimately probably doesn't do much

993
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 1: for Nikki, but it might help Biden ultimately, right.

994
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:04,840
Speaker 3: It could.

995
00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:09,280
Speaker 4: So. I am very skeptical of any Trump is finished

996
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:11,840
Speaker 4: because of the way he emotionally reacted to something.

997
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:12,560
Speaker 3: Theory.

998
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 4: We have seen this not work too many times. Even

999
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 4: Democrats I talked to, if they could program the media

1000
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:20,240
Speaker 4: which believe it or out they don't they assistant usuams

1001
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:21,080
Speaker 4: and telling what they're doing.

1002
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:22,360
Speaker 3: They would love.

1003
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:24,920
Speaker 4: More of a focus on what is he going to

1004
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 4: do about abortion access, abortion medication, What is he going

1005
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:31,440
Speaker 4: to do about tax rates? What is he going to

1006
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:34,359
Speaker 4: do about labor? Because he has conservative advisors who'd want

1007
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 4: to gut the EDLRB Elon tries to it at existence.

1008
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:39,479
Speaker 4: They'd love to talk about that because they think Trump

1009
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 4: being erratic is not really a problem for him. Haley

1010
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 4: did to give her credit get under his skin. Her

1011
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 4: basic strategy on election night was concede quickly, which she did,

1012
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 4: which is normal if you're not Trump usually conceived the

1013
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 4: election if you lose, and you do it before the

1014
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 4: victory speech, and you get to influence a victory speech.

1015
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:58,080
Speaker 4: So she came out there with a speech where she

1016
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,040
Speaker 4: laid out how she was going to keep running for

1017
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:02,799
Speaker 4: two months. He never said she lost the race. She said,

1018
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 4: thank you God. She talked like somebody who had just

1019
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:07,879
Speaker 4: won an election. And yes, that pissed off Trump, who

1020
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 4: is going to keep making fun of her. The advantage

1021
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 4: he has though, as opposed to twenty sixteen when he

1022
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:16,399
Speaker 4: actually lost Iowa and then yelled about it, just said

1023
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 4: it was stolen. Is that he has a superstructure in

1024
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 4: the Republican Party agreeing that Donald Trump should be the

1025
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 4: nominae and she should.

1026
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:23,839
Speaker 1: Back off, like Ronal McDaniel.

1027
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 4: Yes, like the sharers for the RNC, which I wrote yesterday,

1028
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 4: you're not supposed to do It's in that our laws

1029
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 4: of the by Laws of the Party rule eleven. You're

1030
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:33,919
Speaker 4: not allowed to do that. The party is not allowed

1031
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 4: to give it in Times contribution before there's a nominee,

1032
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:39,280
Speaker 4: and they did so He's already got the parties saying, yeah,

1033
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 4: we agree. Maybe we're going to express it differently than

1034
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:44,319
Speaker 4: Donald Trump and use a primetime an election night to

1035
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 4: make fun of her. But he is, I think, channeling

1036
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 4: what his voters think. A lot of Republicans think. He

1037
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 4: said that, but also Ja d Vance said that the

1038
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 4: governor South Carolina is getting there. He is a Trump

1039
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:55,880
Speaker 4: endorser who is campaigning for him. I don't think that

1040
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 4: is a harmful thing for Trump to look like he's

1041
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:01,759
Speaker 4: annoyed at Dicky Haley. Are not conceding because so are

1042
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 4: many of the forces in east side the party.

1043
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, and also, I think you had a really good point.

1044
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 1: Being insane is not necessarily hurt Trump. If anything, it's

1045
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 1: sort of baked in. This was so interesting. I so

1046
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:18,920
Speaker 1: appreciate you coming on and just also I continue to

1047
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:22,800
Speaker 1: be grateful for your dispatches from places that I desperately

1048
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:25,800
Speaker 1: do not want to ever go. Thank you, Dave.

1049
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 4: It's great, no moment, perfectly.

1050
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:35,400
Speaker 2: Jesse Cannon by junk Fast Trump.

1051
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 1: He's yuppin, He's in court.

1052
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 2: What's going on?

1053
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 1: You know, he's testifying right now as we are doing this.

1054
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:46,320
Speaker 1: We have a Lena Habba. You may remember Alena Hobba

1055
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 1: as being completely unqualified for this, and she is sparring

1056
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 1: with Judge Caplan and also with ROBERTA. Caplan. Robbie Caplan,

1057
00:50:56,960 --> 00:50:59,800
Speaker 1: who is the lawyer for Egan Carroll and who have

1058
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:03,359
Speaker 1: course full disclosure. I know him and friendly with all

1059
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 1: these people.

1060
00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 2: I saw that in a truth social post today, in

1061
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 2: fact from mister Trump.

1062
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 1: Yes, I've been truthed, but I just want to say

1063
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:13,440
Speaker 1: that Trump is gonna have a lot of trouble with

1064
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:17,879
Speaker 1: this testimony. And already we see Trump saying she said

1065
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 1: something I considered a false accusation. ROBERTA. Caplan objection, Judge

1066
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 1: Caplan sustained, and miss Habba I have no further questions.

1067
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:33,919
Speaker 1: Judge Caplan, cross examination. There was a trial here, correct, Trump, Yes,

1068
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 1: so this is going to be my moment of fuckery. Basically,

1069
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 1: they got two questions. Donald Trump was not allowed to

1070
00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:46,320
Speaker 1: do the kind of lying he gets to do everywhere else.

1071
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:51,360
Speaker 1: And for that, that is my moment of fuckery. That's

1072
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:55,680
Speaker 1: it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday,

1073
00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 1: and Friday to hear the best minds in politics makes

1074
00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:01,360
Speaker 1: sense of all this case. I ask if you enjoyed

1075
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:03,880
Speaker 1: what you've heard, please send it to a friend and

1076
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:07,360
Speaker 1: keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.