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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, and welcome to a special edition of College

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Speaker 1: Football Game Day Live, the podcast edition. This will be

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Speaker 1: the first of four episodes that me and Mike Farrell

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Speaker 1: are going to do regarding the ball games, handicapping the

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Speaker 1: mag giving you our pick sides, totals, props, that the

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Speaker 1: whole deal. I'm your host, Thorne Eistrom, joined as always

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Speaker 1: by the aforementioned Mike Farrell of Mike Farrell Sports.

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Speaker 2: Mike, how you doing today?

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Speaker 3: I'm doing good. We're far away from the big games,

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Speaker 3: but we got some interesting ones where you make some money.

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Speaker 2: We sure do.

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Speaker 1: And we have eleven games that we're going to get

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Speaker 1: to in this episode, so let's jump right into it.

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Speaker 1: We're starting with the first ball game on the slate.

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Speaker 1: UAB is the favorite against Miamia of Ohio. UAB favored

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Speaker 1: by eleven. We have a total in this game.

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Speaker 2: Of forty four and a half.

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Speaker 1: The Bahamas Ball, of course, played in NASA the Bahamas

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Speaker 1: ten thirty am Central kickoff on Friday, December sixteenth.

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Speaker 2: Mike, who do you like in this game?

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Speaker 3: So the line right now is eleven and of course

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Speaker 3: you got to check that because it's going to change.

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Speaker 3: Is here and there you know, I think UB is

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Speaker 3: gonna win. I like their offense better. They do have

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Speaker 3: trouble from what it seems with teams they could run

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Speaker 3: the football. But if you're gonna give eleven points to

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Speaker 3: Miami of Ohio, they've been a good team this season,

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Speaker 3: especially late in the season when it comes to covering

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Speaker 3: the spread, you know, and in bowl games traditionally they

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Speaker 3: play well. I know a lot of people don't follow

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Speaker 3: the MAC and bowl game results and things like that,

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Speaker 3: but they're four and zer against the spread in their

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Speaker 3: last four bowl games, and and you know, they've been

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Speaker 3: playing much better later in the season. So I think

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Speaker 3: they're going to be able to run the football. I

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Speaker 3: think they're gonna be able to keep this game close.

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Speaker 3: I don't expect them to win. I like the offensive

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Speaker 3: firepower for EA B, but if you give me eleven,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna take Miami of Ohio.

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Speaker 1: I'm taking Miami of Ohio in this game as well.

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Speaker 1: I should mention the opt outs first. There's none that

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Speaker 1: has been reported on the UA B side Miami of

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Speaker 1: Ohio side. Brett Gabert he had entered the transfer portal

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Speaker 1: now he's coming back to Miami. He was also injured

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Speaker 1: during the season, only played in four games. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if he's going to play in this game. Between

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Speaker 1: like the change of status and his injury status, I'm

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Speaker 1: expecting it to be av On Collins, who played two

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Speaker 1: thirds of their snaps this year. Anyway, they also lost

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Speaker 1: to starting guarding Caleb Schaeffer to the transfer portal Miami did,

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Speaker 1: but I'm taking Miami anyway. Like I said, the difference

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Speaker 1: between Gabert and Smith, it's certainly a bit of a downgrade,

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Speaker 1: but Smith is a way better runner. Smith is just

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Speaker 1: an enormous downgrade as a passer. But fortunately for Miami

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Speaker 1: in terms of this on field matchup, the UAB defense

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Speaker 1: where you attack it, it's their run defense. UAB has

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Speaker 1: one of the best pass defenses in the entire G five.

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Speaker 1: But with avi on Smith behind center, again, that's what

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Speaker 1: I'm assuming, Miami's not going to be throwing the ball

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Speaker 1: much anyway. It's going to be sort of a methodical

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Speaker 1: attack where they're just trying to move the ball on

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Speaker 1: the ground and keep that clock running. And then on

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Speaker 1: the other side, uab's offense did get better when Dylan

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Speaker 1: Hopkins came back. Was a part of the reason why

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Speaker 1: they had under achieved when when Hopkins was injured and

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Speaker 1: they were playing Jacob Zeno. But despite that, uh, Miami

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Speaker 1: has the better defense here than than ua B does,

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Speaker 1: and I think even better than uab's offense. I think

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Speaker 1: Miami's defense is the best unit that is going to

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Speaker 1: be on the field. Ua B strength, of course is

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Speaker 1: their run game, Dwayne McBride being the star, But Miami,

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Speaker 1: Ohio their defensive strength is their run defense. So I

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm expecting on both sides just a ton

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Speaker 1: of running, running clock and I think Miami can do

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Speaker 1: enough to suppress the scoring of ua B to stay

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Speaker 1: within this bloated number. And Mike, you mentioned how good

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Speaker 1: Chuck Martin has been in Bowl games three to zero

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Speaker 1: in ball games, and you mentioned four and oh if

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Speaker 1: if you go back to the game before him, Chuck

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Speaker 1: Martin's also five and one against the spread in his

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Speaker 1: career in neutral site games. So I'm absolutely taking those

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Speaker 1: eleven points. Moving on to our second game on Friday,

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Speaker 1: Troy against UTSA. Troy is favored by one and a

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Speaker 1: half points in this one in the Cure Ball. This

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Speaker 1: one is in or Lambda, Florida. We have a total

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Speaker 1: in this Game of fifty four and a half. Mike,

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Speaker 1: who do you like in this one? Or do you

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Speaker 1: have an angle on this one?

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Speaker 3: I have an angle. I don't like the line, not

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Speaker 3: picking a side in this one. And again as we

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Speaker 3: as we notice there's so many factors. We just talked

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Speaker 3: about U. A. B And Miami Ohio. U AB as

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Speaker 3: a new coach. You know, he hasn't taken over yet.

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Speaker 3: You know, got Gabbert in the portal, out of the portal?

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Speaker 3: Is he coming back? When is he gonna come back?

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Speaker 3: There's so many and as we get into the bigger

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Speaker 3: games and the better football players, the opt outs and

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Speaker 3: things like that are going to affect things. And really

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Speaker 3: what that does to me is that if the line

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Speaker 3: is really that tight, and I don't really know who's

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Speaker 3: gonna win the football game, Like I think Troy is

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Speaker 3: gonna win the game, but I don't really know. So

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Speaker 3: the over is what's attracted to me here because I

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Speaker 3: think that's a low number for this game. You know,

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Speaker 3: these two teams score points, and they score a lot

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Speaker 3: of them. You know, the over is eight to zero

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Speaker 3: in the Trojans last eight bowl games. I don't know

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Speaker 3: why the number is always low for them, but it

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Speaker 3: just is, and it's five to zero in the last

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Speaker 3: five non conference games for UTSA. They'd score a lot

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Speaker 3: of points too, So give me the over on this one.

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Speaker 3: You know, Frank Harris coming back for his fifty eighth year.

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Speaker 3: I think he's gonna put up really good numbers for them.

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Speaker 3: Troy's a very good football team. I think they win it,

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Speaker 3: but I don't know. You know, one and a half

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Speaker 3: you'd think, okay, you think Troy's gonna win and take

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Speaker 3: the money line. I don't know either team could win this,

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Speaker 3: but I know it's gonna go over.

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Speaker 1: Both these teams, Mike, as you know, are on absolute heaters.

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Speaker 1: They both started out one and two, and then they

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Speaker 1: both ripped off ten straight wins to get here. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: both of them won their conference title game. This is

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Speaker 1: a pretty attractive matchup. I agree with you though on

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Speaker 1: Troy only having to give that one point. I do

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Speaker 1: think Troy is gonna win this one. The total for

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Speaker 1: me was too tough, so I'm staying away from that.

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Speaker 1: But I'm going to back Troy here. We don't have

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Speaker 1: as many opt outs on the Troy side. A couple

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Speaker 1: of their secondary receivers are Iffy for this game, and

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Speaker 1: then for UTSA, their stud receiver or one of their

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Speaker 1: three former Stud receivers to Corey and Clark. He got

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Speaker 1: knocked out for the year in October, so UTSA is

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Speaker 1: down to two Stud receivers, and then Brendon Brady, one

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Speaker 1: of their platoon running backs, is questionable for this game

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Speaker 1: after he missed the conference title game. Like as far

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Speaker 1: as the unfield matchup of this one, Troy's defense is

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Speaker 1: what they've been led by all season.

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Speaker 2: Everybody talks about.

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Speaker 1: Carlton Marshall, the undersized, whirling dervish linebacker, that they have

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Speaker 1: the tackle machine, the all time FBS leader in tackles,

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Speaker 1: but Troy is stout outside of that as well. They

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Speaker 1: have a lockdown corner this kid named Stewart, Ready Stewart,

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Speaker 1: who I think is gonna come to the four in

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Speaker 1: this matchup because with UTSA Zakari Franklin, their outside receiver

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Speaker 1: is a stud, right, Stewart is going to be the

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Speaker 1: guy who is going to be counted on to shadow

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Speaker 1: him and hopefully lock him down. Stewart is top ten

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Speaker 1: in the nation in PFF grades for cornerbacks out of

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Speaker 1: like nine hundred plus, so he's just having this absolutely

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Speaker 1: fabulous season. And because UTSA lost to Corey and Clark

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Speaker 1: earlier this year, they only have the two standout receivers.

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Speaker 1: The replacement for Clark has been you know, mediocre when

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Speaker 1: he's been out there, so he doesn't scare Troy very much.

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Speaker 1: I think UTSA is going to have to stick to

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Speaker 1: the air here. You know, obviously, with Harris and stuff

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Speaker 1: like that, you have the little bit of a depreciated

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Speaker 1: running back room. And I just think that that Troy's

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Speaker 1: defense is really well suited for that. And when UTSA

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Speaker 1: is running the ball, you know, against those thinned out boxes,

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Speaker 1: Carlton Marshall is going to be the guy who's counted

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Speaker 1: on to clean all that stuff up. Well, he's done

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Speaker 1: that throughout his career, so I'm not super worried about that.

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Speaker 1: And then the UTSA defense, what they're good at is

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Speaker 1: stopping the run. They do not have as good of

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Speaker 1: a pass defense. Utsa's defense also gets gouged for explosive plays.

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Speaker 1: I think that's where they're going to get bitten by

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Speaker 1: the Troy offense. Troy's offense is not very explosive. I'm sorry,

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Speaker 1: he's not very efficient, but It is explosive both in

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Speaker 1: the in the run game and in the passing game.

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Speaker 1: The running game for Troy has come on recently. Kamani

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Speaker 1: Vidales rush for like six hundred and fifty yards plus

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Speaker 1: over the last five games.

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Speaker 2: So you got that.

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Speaker 1: And then Gunner Watson has played pretty well as well

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Speaker 1: the quarterback for Troy. I think they're gonna connect on

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Speaker 1: a couple of explosive plays. I think they're gonna suppress

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Speaker 1: Utsa's offense. Utsa's offense has played this procession of crappy defenses.

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Speaker 1: This is one of the best defenses UTSA is gonna

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Speaker 1: playoff season. I do expect Troy to overcome them in

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Speaker 1: this game. Moving on to the next one, now we're

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Speaker 1: moving into Saturday, Mike, this is an eleven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: kick on Saturday, the Fenway Ball in Boston. Obviously, we

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Speaker 1: have a line here that is toggling between favorites, where

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Speaker 1: it's the one team's favorite then the next team the markets.

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Speaker 1: You're sort of batting this one over the threshold right now.

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Speaker 1: Louisville is favored by one and a half points over Cincinnati,

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Speaker 1: but by the time you hear this, it certainly could

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Speaker 1: be the other way. We have some inactives in this one,

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Speaker 1: Mike that I wanted to run through quick because this

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Speaker 1: is one where there's a bunch of them. On the

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati side, Ben Bryant, their starting quarterback, is out for

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Speaker 1: the season with an injury. They also had several pass

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Speaker 1: that either opted out for the NFL Draft or transferring.

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Speaker 1: The two big ones that were just straight opt outs

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Speaker 1: Trey Tucker, one of their leading receivers, and then Josh

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Speaker 1: will who's going to the NFL as well. Nick Martiner

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Speaker 1: and Jayden Thompson, though tertiary receivers for them, they also

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Speaker 1: opted out, so I think Cincinnati ended up losing four

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Speaker 1: of their top five pass catchers. On the Louisville side,

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Speaker 1: Malik Cunningham has opted out for this game. He had

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Speaker 1: gotten injured at the end of the regular season, reaggravated

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Speaker 1: his shoulder injury against Kentucky in the finale. He's shutting

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Speaker 1: it down and that makes sense. They also have a

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Speaker 1: couple of transfer portal running backs, Trabion Cooley and Jalen

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Speaker 1: Mitchell jumped in there, although Louisville has some depth at

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Speaker 1: running back, and of course this is the Scott saderfield

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Speaker 1: ball with Sadderfield going from Louisville to Cincinnati. The staff

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Speaker 1: on Louisville got blown up, like the Bowl staff got

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Speaker 1: blown up a bit more than Cincinnati's. Cincinnati's going with

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Speaker 1: Kerry Coombs as their interim head coach, Louisville going with

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Speaker 1: Dion Branch, but Louisville had to do a whole bunch

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Speaker 1: more shuffling. Louisvill's offensive coordinator Lance Taylor also took the

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Speaker 1: WMU head coaching job. They also lost their strength and

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Speaker 1: conditioning coach UH to Arkansas, and then several assistants followed Sadderfield.

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Speaker 1: So Mike, with all that sat, I tried to rumble

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Speaker 1: through that as quick as I got put your angle

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Speaker 1: on this one.

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Speaker 3: No, you should do that for every game, because this

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Speaker 3: is the ridiculousness of where we are with the portal.

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Speaker 3: You know, crazy season. The coaching carousel always impacts this,

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Speaker 3: that and the other, and I think, you know, in

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Speaker 3: recent years has gotten a little bit crazier. You know,

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Speaker 3: last offseason was insane with so many coaches changing big level,

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Speaker 3: high level jobs. But this year the dominoes have really

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Speaker 3: come into play. Luke Fickle takes, you know, the Wisconsin

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Speaker 3: job Sadderfield takes the Cincinnati job, bron takes the Louisville job,

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Speaker 3: and who's there, who's there to coach? You know, players

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Speaker 3: are opting out and they're in the portal. You know,

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Speaker 3: you just went through all the guys that are either

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Speaker 3: opting out, injured, or in the portal or all three,

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Speaker 3: and it's just it's very difficult to come up with

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Speaker 3: a winner in this football game, which is a one

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Speaker 3: point game. So to me, the number I like here,

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Speaker 3: and you're gonna see this a lot, I think, and

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Speaker 3: not by rule I like to over. I think it's

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Speaker 3: a low number. Now again, you're talking about, you know,

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Speaker 3: Evan Prater, You're talking about guys that you've never heard of,

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Speaker 3: that are younger players, you know, stepping up into bigger

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Speaker 3: roles that they're not used to. Can they be efficient offensively?

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Speaker 3: Probably not. But you're gonna see a ton of turnovers

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Speaker 3: in chaos like this as well, because the coaches aren't

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Speaker 3: on the same page, or the players aren't on the

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Speaker 3: same page, or it's the younger guys who are coming

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Speaker 3: off of scout team or backup roles. It thrust into

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Speaker 3: starting roles. They're gonna make mistakes and there's gonna be

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Speaker 3: a lot of egregious mistakes. So in this game, if

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Speaker 3: this was a regular season game and Fickle were the

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Speaker 3: head coach and Satafield were the head coach, and I

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Speaker 3: could break it down like a normal human being could,

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Speaker 3: I would have a different answer for you. I'm going

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Speaker 3: to take the over here. I think this is going

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Speaker 3: to be a mistake prone game. I don't think that's

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Speaker 3: going to keep the score low. I think you're going

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Speaker 3: to see some big, massive mistakes on both sides of

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Speaker 3: the football that are going to lead to short Field's potential,

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Speaker 3: you know, turnover scores. And I'm going to take the over.

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Speaker 3: If a gun the head, who would win this football game?

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Speaker 3: I mean Louisville. And the reason I say that is

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Speaker 3: because the guys that are left are going to be,

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Speaker 3: I don't know, a little bit more motivated to beat

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Speaker 3: the guy that left them, you know, but I don't know,

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Speaker 3: But so give me the over.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to I'm going to stick to the

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Speaker 1: side with my handicap and I went into the matrix

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Speaker 1: a little bit on this one, Mike, So I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: going to try to simplify it for folks out there

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Speaker 1: because I know, I know, I tossed out a whole

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Speaker 1: lot of names. There was certainly more opt outs on

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Speaker 1: the Sincy side and even more contributors, But I actually

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Speaker 1: think that the defections on both sides, it basically comes

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Speaker 1: out as a wash. And the reason why is the

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Speaker 1: drop off from Elie Cunningham to Doleman the backup for

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Speaker 1: Louisville is huge. Doman did not play well in any

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Speaker 1: of his appearances this year. Doman is cement footed, so

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Speaker 1: you take out the entire rushing element that that Malie

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Speaker 1: Cunningham has in spades, and Doman also to the mean

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Speaker 1: he's a pocket passer, but to this point he's not

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Speaker 1: even as good of a thrower as Molie Cunningham. So

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Speaker 1: the Louisville's passing offense is also going to greatly suffer

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Speaker 1: because of that and probably become more predictable having to

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Speaker 1: you know, a lot of handoffs to the running backs,

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Speaker 1: whereas the Cincinnati tradeoff from Ben Bryant to the aforementioned

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Speaker 1: Evan Prater, it's much less of a drop off. Prater

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Speaker 1: also got you know, some some you know time this year,

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Speaker 1: you know, as did Doman. They had about analogous snaps

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Speaker 1: or whatever. Prater is is certainly a drop off from

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Speaker 1: Bryant as a thrower, but Prater is a better runner

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Speaker 1: than Bryant. And when you have seen praterer on the

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Speaker 1: field this year, that manifests in the play calling tendencies

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Speaker 1: of the Cincinnati offensive staff. They call more design runs

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Speaker 1: for Prader and do more of the grinded out stuff

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Speaker 1: that he's good at, and that helps the cincinnat offense

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Speaker 1: in some ways on you know, at least in terms

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Speaker 1: of the rushing aspect, because Cincinnati's like just their nuts

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00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:09,760
Speaker 1: and bolts run game this year greatly disappointed. Obviously, they

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Speaker 1: had lost Jerome Ford and then of course Desmond Ritter

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Speaker 1: as well, and then you go to Ben Bryant, who

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Speaker 1: was not a rushing threat. The offensive line underachieved a

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Speaker 1: little bit, and then the running backs were just guys

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Speaker 1: right like they were plat tuning through like four different

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Speaker 1: running backs. They never unearthed the stud out of those guys.

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Speaker 1: But with Prader you can manufacturer yards on the ground.

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Speaker 1: It's also because of this my expectation of sort of

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Speaker 1: the flip tendencies with Cincinnati skewing way more run heavy

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Speaker 1: with Prater that I don't think the losses of all

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Speaker 1: those pass catchers is quite as acute as for instance,

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Speaker 1: if this game was Bryant against Cunningham, and then you

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Speaker 1: know for Bryant having the drop off in that receiving core,

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Speaker 1: just because again I don't expect Cincinnati to throw very much.

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Speaker 1: What I do know in this game is Cincinnati's defense

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Speaker 1: is going to have their way with Louisville's offense. Again,

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Speaker 1: with doman In, Louisville's offense just becomes toothless. Cincinnati is

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Speaker 1: one of the better defenses in the G five, so

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Speaker 1: I think that they're going to be able to shut

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Speaker 1: the lights out on them. And Louisville's run defense is

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Speaker 1: not very good, so I think that that since he

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Speaker 1: is going to be able to nick them and nick them,

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Speaker 1: the coaching staff handicap. It's it's kind of interesting, you know,

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Speaker 1: with Louisville's getting blown up more, you know, in that aspect,

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Speaker 1: I also give a bit of the advantage to Cincinnati

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Speaker 1: as far as the motivation thing. That's interesting, right, because

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Speaker 1: the Louisville players were absolutely furious when Sadderfield left because

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Speaker 1: of well, in large part because of the way that

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Speaker 1: Sadderfield left. How does that manifest sort of in their

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Speaker 1: mindset for this game. Obviously Jeff Brohm is coming in,

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Speaker 1: but he's not going to have anything to do with

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Speaker 1: this game. You'd imagine the players want to give effort

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Speaker 1: for te on Branch, But also is there a portion

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Speaker 1: of that roster that's thinking about leaving now or still

330
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Speaker 1: has residual bad feelings about that? I'm not really sure,

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Speaker 1: but all that stuff put together, I do like Cincinnati

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Speaker 1: in this one and the line whenever you listen to

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Speaker 1: this it's it's gonna be under three either way. Like

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Speaker 1: I said, the favorite keeps toggling at the sports Bucks.

335
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Speaker 1: But I'm gonna take Cincinnati regardless of what that whether

336
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Speaker 1: it's plus one or one and a half or minus

337
00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,800
Speaker 1: one or one and a half, I'm gonna take the

338
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Speaker 1: berecounts way.

339
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Speaker 3: Now, you're a brave You're a brave man.

340
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Speaker 2: And Evan Prayer, we trust Mike.

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Speaker 3: So here's the thing that happened with Sadderfield that a

342
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Speaker 3: lot of I don't even know if it's been publicized

343
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,320
Speaker 3: or people have talked about it or whatever. So the reason,

344
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:35,200
Speaker 3: you know, Louisville kind of screwed him. He had the

345
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Speaker 3: seven and five season, he had him in the top

346
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Speaker 3: twenty five. Near the end of the season, he'd beat

347
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Speaker 3: wait for us. That was where his job security was

348
00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,200
Speaker 3: in play. But they wouldn't give him an extension, which

349
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Speaker 3: is fine, but they also wouldn't bonus them out. And

350
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Speaker 3: by that, I mean, if you don't give someone an extension,

351
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Speaker 3: you throw ust bonuses. If you win the ACC you

352
00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:51,880
Speaker 3: get this, you go to a Bowl, Giam, you get this.

353
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Speaker 3: Bonus them out even more than his current bonuses. So

354
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Speaker 3: they wouldn't extend them more, bonus them out. And honestly,

355
00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,800
Speaker 3: they gave him a minimum win total of eight wins

356
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Speaker 3: next season, and they asked him to sign an additional

357
00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:06,880
Speaker 3: contract that said if you don't win eight games, your

358
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:10,600
Speaker 3: buyout's gone. So essentially they fired him because nobody's going

359
00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:11,960
Speaker 3: to do that. No one's going to take that. No

360
00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:15,159
Speaker 3: one's going to take that contract and say, Okay, yeah,

361
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:19,199
Speaker 3: let me throw away my buyout if I don't win

362
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,280
Speaker 3: eight games. And Cincinnati came approaching at the right time

363
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:24,920
Speaker 3: gave him his deal. He's making more money in Cincinnati,

364
00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,159
Speaker 3: but the way he left was very bitter and it

365
00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:31,040
Speaker 3: left a bad taste in the player's mouth about him

366
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Speaker 3: because they don't really know this inside story, you know,

367
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:35,919
Speaker 3: or a lot of them weren't educated on it or

368
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,840
Speaker 3: don't care. So they're pretty ticked off. Now does that

369
00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:40,840
Speaker 3: mean they're going to win the football game? I don't know,

370
00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,240
Speaker 3: but I do know that the lack of publicity about

371
00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 3: how this change occurred has a lot to do with

372
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,760
Speaker 3: what the inner workings at Louisville are and the way

373
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,440
Speaker 3: they're presented with this game. To your point, more kids

374
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,440
Speaker 3: could jump with the portal between now and this game.

375
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Speaker 3: To your point, they might show up and just not

376
00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,680
Speaker 3: play because they're upset at the Louisville administration for getting

377
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,400
Speaker 3: rid of the coach, or they're upset at their coach

378
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:04,720
Speaker 3: for leaving them. So that's why you're a brave man

379
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:06,360
Speaker 3: to pick aside in this Because I don't know what's

380
00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 3: going to happen. I have no idea, but I do

381
00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 3: know we're going to go over forty two points.

382
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Speaker 1: I understand why why Saderfield left, but what a masterful

383
00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,480
Speaker 1: job by the Louisville a d you know, basically for

384
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:18,919
Speaker 1: since Saderfield hand a little bit, and then you know,

385
00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:21,080
Speaker 1: of course, since he comes gone, but you get the

386
00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,640
Speaker 1: buyout for Saturfield leaving, and then you get the guy

387
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,800
Speaker 1: you wanted anyway to bring in, Jeff browm and you

388
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:27,720
Speaker 1: could just divert some of that buyout money that you

389
00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:31,480
Speaker 1: would just received back to Purdue. I thought it was

390
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,399
Speaker 1: well done over off for Louisville, and hopefully Saderfield goes

391
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:36,679
Speaker 1: to Cincinnati and ends up, you know, keeping up what

392
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:40,399
Speaker 1: Luke Fickle was doing. Onto our next one, also a

393
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:44,480
Speaker 1: Saturday kick of course, two fifteen kickoff Eastern. In this one,

394
00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:48,880
Speaker 1: the New Mexico Bull in Elburquerque, New Mexico. SMU right

395
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,040
Speaker 1: now in the market is a five or five and

396
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 1: a half point favorite, depending on where you look over

397
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,360
Speaker 1: BYU and I'll explain why. And the second that line

398
00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:58,720
Speaker 1: has come up from one and a half since Sunday night.

399
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 1: And then the total on this game is sixty six.

400
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 2: Mike.

401
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:05,320
Speaker 1: We have a whole bunch of defections and injuries and

402
00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:08,680
Speaker 1: different stuff in this game. On the SMU side, TJ McDaniel,

403
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,000
Speaker 1: they're running back in the transfer portal. He's more of

404
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,040
Speaker 1: a rotational guy. Doesn't matter as much because they have

405
00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,159
Speaker 1: pretty good depth there. The one that really matters is

406
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:18,119
Speaker 1: Rashie Rice on the SMU side, he's not going to

407
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 1: play because of an injury. It just decided to shut

408
00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,240
Speaker 1: it down for the end of the season. He's a

409
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:27,200
Speaker 1: stud ninety six catches, thirteen hundred and fifty five receiving yards,

410
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 1: and ten touchdowns for Rice this season. But on the

411
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 1: BYU side you have even more going on. There are

412
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 1: heavy rumors right now that Jaren Hall is going to

413
00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 1: be shut down with the injury that he suffered at

414
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,920
Speaker 1: the end of the season. I've actually heard, and I

415
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,840
Speaker 1: heard this early Monday morning, that Hall was not.

416
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:43,960
Speaker 2: Going to play in this game.

417
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:45,640
Speaker 3: He's not going to play.

418
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,000
Speaker 1: Not going to play, Yeah, I mean that's and the

419
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:50,960
Speaker 1: markets seemed to be hearing that as well. It seemed

420
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:52,199
Speaker 1: like the cat got out of the bag at the

421
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,480
Speaker 1: same time, because when I went to bed on Sunday night,

422
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,399
Speaker 1: it was SMU minus one and a half. When I

423
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,600
Speaker 1: woke up on Monday, it was SMU minus three and

424
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 1: a half. That's where I put my and when I

425
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 1: got the official word on Hall, or the unofficial word

426
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 1: on Haul as it were. And now the thing, like

427
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:07,399
Speaker 1: I said, it's either up to five or five and

428
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,720
Speaker 1: a half wherever you look. I think it's going to

429
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 1: be closer to seven or maybe even who knows, maybe

430
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 1: he's even pushing seven and a half by kick. Because BYU,

431
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 1: not only are they out Jaron Haw Jacob Conover, their

432
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,560
Speaker 1: backup quarterback is in the transfer portal, So BYU right

433
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:26,200
Speaker 1: now has three different kids that are practicing essentially in

434
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:29,120
Speaker 1: this like sort of two week derby to figure out

435
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,880
Speaker 1: who starts this game. Three kids that haven't played all year,

436
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 1: just total unknowns. And not only that, by you at

437
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 1: a starting receiver who is injured doesn't look like he's

438
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:41,239
Speaker 1: gonna play Keanu Kill And the other thing on that

439
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 1: side is they have a whole bunch of linebacker issues

440
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 1: right now. Keenan Peelee, one of their linebackers who is

441
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 1: number two on the defense in total snaps, he is

442
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,200
Speaker 1: in the transfer portal. And then their linebackers, who rank

443
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,160
Speaker 1: third and fourth on the team in linebackers snaps, are

444
00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,719
Speaker 1: both injured and not expected to play, so BYU linebacker

445
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,439
Speaker 1: court is also hollowed over for this game. Mike, with

446
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 1: all of that said, what side do you like or

447
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 1: what angle do you have in this game?

448
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,119
Speaker 3: Everything you just said there, especially you know at the

449
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 3: latter part of what you said with the quarterback situation.

450
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 3: We're down to third fourth string guys, fifth string guys. Okay,

451
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 3: you know Kate Finnegan, Nick Billups, sol Jay Mayeva Peters.

452
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 3: Who are these guys. They've never had any sort of

453
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:30,120
Speaker 3: real competition. They're stepping into a role they're unfamiliar with.

454
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,159
Speaker 3: You lose your first two quarterbacks because All's not I

455
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 3: was not gonna play. It would be a miracle. I

456
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 3: think if he plays. From what I hear, you lose

457
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 3: your first two quarterbacks, you can't win the football game, right, No,

458
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,199
Speaker 3: but you can cover. I'm taking BYU And I'll tell

459
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 3: you why. Oh, I'll tell you why. The first thing

460
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,400
Speaker 3: you said, you mentioned some nondescriped you know, part time

461
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 3: running back. I don't care you mentioned Rice. He's their

462
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:58,479
Speaker 3: entire offense. He's not going to play. SMU is going

463
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,919
Speaker 3: to land egg By is going to rally the troops.

464
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 3: You know, they've got a tremendous coach. They've got a

465
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 3: great culture there. Everybody's like, Jaren Hall is our a guy.

466
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 3: We're gonna go play for him, even though he's injured.

467
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 3: He's not gonna be ale play because Jarren Hall was

468
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 3: going to play despite the fact that it's you know,

469
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 3: he's an potential NFL draft pick. I mean, you heard

470
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,680
Speaker 3: all the garbage about him being a number first round pick.

471
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 3: All we don't believe that you and I would talk

472
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 3: about this, but he's got an NFL future. But he

473
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 3: was still going to play. And Kalonie Sataki will have

474
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 3: these guys ready. You will see a very very good

475
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 3: performance from them. They may not win the game, but

476
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 3: this is going to be a field goal game. Rice

477
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 3: to me when I saw he was out and I

478
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 3: look at the numbers, and I've watched SMU a few

479
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:46,120
Speaker 3: times this year, that is the it's you might as

480
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 3: well play without a quarterback because he's their entire receiving core.

481
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 3: So that's why I'm taking BYU to cover the five

482
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,640
Speaker 3: and a half. And I think, right now, wait, wait

483
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 3: till the Hall information comes out. Let this number get

484
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 3: even higher, you know, and and then take me away.

485
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 1: You you complemented my courage and earlier in the show,

486
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 1: so so let me return the compliment taking a take

487
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,200
Speaker 1: one of those three guys that you mentioned BYU going

488
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 1: up against Tanner Mordecai, that that takes some courage. I

489
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 1: will be on on SMU of course, as you probably

490
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 1: got from my un earlier. Yeah, and look, Rice is

491
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 1: a big loss for sure, and and of course he's

492
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 1: their singular you know that their best player on offense.

493
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,439
Speaker 1: They do have receiving depth though at SMU they and

494
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,400
Speaker 1: of course they have the running back depth as well.

495
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 1: The running back one. They'll be able to cover for

496
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 1: that kid easy. Rice will be tougher, for sure, But

497
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 1: Tanner Mordecai, this being his swan song, his last collegiate game,

498
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 1: he gonna have to spread the ball a little bit more.

499
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 2: They don't.

500
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 1: They're not going to be as dangerous without Rice, of course,

501
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 1: because Rice is flammable. But I think SMU can remain

502
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 1: viable on offense, especially against this awful BYU defense. One

503
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 1: of the most disappointing units in all of college football

504
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,719
Speaker 1: this season. BYU's defense and ten starters, and you know,

505
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: there was expectation for it and it was awful this year.

506
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: That's the reason that they pushed out b. YU pushed

507
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 1: out their defensive coordinator after this season. Several defensive assistants

508
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 1: left with Ed Lamb, the associate head coach and the

509
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 1: I think he was a special teams coach as well

510
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 1: for BYU. He ed Lamb went to Northern Colorado in

511
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 1: the FCS and took like four staffers with them. Uh

512
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 1: b Yu also apparently pushed out their strength and conditioning coach,

513
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 1: so so they have a lot of moving parts there.

514
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: That the BYU defense is not good, and so the SMU,

515
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 1: you know, they should still be able to move the ball.

516
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 1: And then I'm wondering, you know, even with you know,

517
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 1: SMU's defensive course is terrible. But the only thing that

518
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 1: I expect BYU to be able to do here is

519
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 1: run a little bit with Christopher Brooks. I just think

520
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 1: that they're gonna be predictable unless one of those unknown

521
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 1: three guys who hasn't taken a snap all year comes

522
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 1: out and as all of a sudden ty detmer or whatever.

523
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 1: Barring that, I just struggled to see how SMU is

524
00:24:57,960 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: gonna consistently move it.

525
00:24:59,480 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 2: Who can?

526
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,679
Speaker 1: They have a really good receiver and poking Akua, But

527
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 1: do you trust one of those third or four string

528
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 1: kids to come in and get him the ball?

529
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 2: I'm not sure.

530
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 1: Like I said, Brooks should be able to to churn

531
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 1: out some yards, but I trust SMU's offense going up

532
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 1: against this crappy b Yu defense and also has that linebacker.

533
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,479
Speaker 2: Core hollowed out just a little bit more. So I'm

534
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 2: gonna lay the lay the five.

535
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 3: But as you say crappy b Yu, you did say

536
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 3: crappy SMU defense. So I'm glad you did say that

537
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 3: the BYU's off defense sucks. SMUs is worse worse. Now

538
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 3: I get the quarterback question mark, you know, so is

539
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 3: Mordecai a good quarterback? We're gonna find out because he's

540
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 3: gonna be without his safety blanket, his number one target.

541
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 3: The drop off from from Rice to the next wide receiver,

542
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 3: uh is just sixty five catches. It's unbelievable. So we're

543
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 3: gonna find out. It's gonna be interesting. So we'll keep

544
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 3: an eye on this one.

545
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 2: You and I spread that ball, Tanner. Let's do this.

546
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 1: Moving to our next one at This is a three

547
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 1: thirty eastern kick on Saturday at December seventeenth, the Jimmy.

548
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 2: Kimmelball Mike in Inglewood, California.

549
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,120
Speaker 1: This is another one where the there's a whole bunch

550
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,439
Speaker 1: in the ball season so far where the favorite has changed.

551
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 1: Wazoo Washington State. They started out as the favorite, they

552
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:17,120
Speaker 1: are now the underdog. Fresno State has assumed the role

553
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 1: of favorite for reasons we'll talk about in a second.

554
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 1: Right now, live in the market. Fresno's minus three two,

555
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,479
Speaker 1: three and a half. I've seen it at both at books,

556
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 1: so that thing is definitely trending upwards in in Fresno

557
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 1: State's direction.

558
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 2: We have a total on this one of fifty four

559
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 2: and a half.

560
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: The we have a bunch of defections that I'll get

561
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: out of the way to start WAZU. Wazoo's receiving corps

562
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,679
Speaker 1: got decimated after this season. Dejon Stribbling is in the

563
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 1: transfer portal, as is Donovan Ali and then Renard Bell

564
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,639
Speaker 1: is injured. Those guys are one, two and four on

565
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 1: the team in receptions. Uh, that's tough for a really

566
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 1: pass happy Wazoo Offenseazoo. Also, I was just talking, we

567
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,919
Speaker 1: were just talking about BYU that their linebackers situation was

568
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 1: Who's might even be worse. Francisco Maluga is in the

569
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: transfer portal, Trebon Brown transfer portal, and Dayon Henley, the

570
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: stud Dayon Henley is going to the NFL Draft. Wazoo

571
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 1: has to do a whole bunch of different shuffling because

572
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,159
Speaker 1: of this There's two guys who have never started a

573
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 1: game before who are going to come in and be

574
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 1: starting here for Wazoo, Ben Wilson and Kyle Thornton making

575
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 1: their first One of them is a special teamer and

576
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 1: one of them is just a backup. They have to

577
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 1: They've already announced them as starters and they've literally never

578
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 1: started a.

579
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 2: Game on defense. So that's on the Wazoo side.

580
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 1: On the Fresno State side, it's only one kid, Cal Sanders.

581
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 1: He did play the twelve most defensive snouts for them.

582
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 1: He's a defensive back, but he had the fourth worst

583
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: PFF grade of those twelve. They also have a backup

584
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: to him that is analogous, so I don't really think

585
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,640
Speaker 1: that matters on the Fresno State side. The only other

586
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 1: thing I'll say is the Wazoo defensive coordinator Brian Ward,

587
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 1: who did an awesome job this season, obviously got attention

588
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 1: in the coaching carousel. Because of that, he ends up

589
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 1: taking the Arizona State defensive coordinator drop under new coach

590
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 1: Kenny Dillingham.

591
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,199
Speaker 2: Mike, with all that out of the way, what's your

592
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 2: angle in this game?

593
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:15,479
Speaker 3: My angles? Fresno State? You know I I I was

594
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 3: a little disrespectful to our our our buddy Hayn at

595
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 3: the end of our our season. You know when I

596
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 3: when I guaranteed one of my props was going to

597
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 3: be the under, you know against and he came well

598
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 3: under because he was he was doing a lot against

599
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 3: nobody defenses. But Washington State, as you mentioned, is decimated defensively.

600
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 3: They're a pretty good defense otherwise, but they're they're decimated.

601
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 3: Their offense is decimated wide receiver. Fresno State doesn't have

602
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 3: a lot of guys out. They have most of their team,

603
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 3: and I think that that's why the line is moved.

604
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 3: And we mentioned the opt outs for the reason why

605
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 3: the line moved so much. But I'm not gonna I'm

606
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 3: not gonna take a side in here. I do like

607
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 3: Fresno State. I hate the line at three fifty four

608
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 3: and a half again, I'm gonna go over now. I

609
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 3: know Washington State lost all these wide receivers, but Fresno

610
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 3: State only gives up twenty points a game, So logically

611
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 3: you would think this game is gonna come under. But

612
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 3: I think that the defense is going to dictate the

613
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,719
Speaker 3: way this game is played. Fresno State could get up

614
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 3: early Hainter could have his way against this defense that decimated,

615
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 3: which means, you know, cam Warton the others have to

616
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 3: air it out and become more aggressive. You know, de

617
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 3: Wor has a great offensive mind. He knows Fresno State.

618
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 3: So I think you're gonna see points points points points

619
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 3: points and I'm thinking to take me over. But if

620
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 3: I had to pick a side of the Fresno State

621
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 3: because they're just they got more guys coming back.

622
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and on the side I agree with you there,

623
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 1: I am on on Fresno State in this game. To

624
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: your point about the Wazoo defense, so they did ring

625
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 1: number eighteen SP plus so overall it was a really

626
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 1: good unit, but a lot of that came because of

627
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 1: situational stuff. The Wazoo was number thirty four in suppressing

628
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity number twenty two and havoc, but

629
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 1: Fresno State's offense is better at preventing havoc. And then

630
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 1: Jazu also took the ball away. They were tied for

631
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 1: number twentieth in the nation in turnovers force. But the

632
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 1: Fresno State offense with j Caner also does not give

633
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: the ball away. The problem here, and Mike, you alluded

634
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: to this. The Wazoo pass defense. It's it's okay in

635
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: some areas, where it's really where it really struggles is

636
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 1: giving up completions. So the Wazoo defense is number ninety

637
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 1: in the nation in completion percentage against you know who's

638
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: number one in the country. The offense for it, Fresno State.

639
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 1: They complete the most passes and that's even with the

640
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 1: sample of Logan Fife, their backup basically taking one fourth

641
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 1: of the snaps this year when Jay Caner was out. Obviously,

642
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 1: it's a totally different offense with Jay Caner in. And

643
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 1: of course this is Jay Caner's last collegiate game, so

644
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, he's he's gonna want to go

645
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 1: out with a good showing, et cetera. And then you know,

646
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: we were talking about the opt outs. It's a really

647
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: big deal on the Wazoo side. And that's why I

648
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 1: had to downgrade Wazoo pretty significantly here. The receiver thing,

649
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 1: it really hurts because Wazu throws the ball so much.

650
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: Even though cam Ward, I think cam Ward has become

651
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 1: one of the more overrated quarterbacks in America. Like HISFF

652
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 1: grade this year is like sixty flat. He puts the

653
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 1: ball up for grabs a lot and and different stuff

654
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 1: like that. And that was even with a full complement

655
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 1: of his receivers. Now he's gonna be having to play

656
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 1: with a full complement of backup receivers in this game.

657
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: And is Wazu just gonna change their entire offensive identity

658
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 1: for this game?

659
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 2: I don't think.

660
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 1: So, you're gonna, You're gonna, you know, go with the

661
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 1: one that brought you. But the problem for them here

662
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: is Fresno State is one of the better pass defenses

663
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 1: in the G five. So I mean, like so in Fresno,

664
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 1: Fresno pass defense top twenty in PFF coverage grade. So

665
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 1: those covervent are going on Wazu's backup receivers and cam

666
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 1: Ward again, he's not a special talent whatsoever. So like

667
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 1: I do expect Presno State's defense to be able to

668
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: force turnovers here, They're certainly gonna be forcing wise into

669
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 1: punting situations as well. I trust Jay Cayner in that

670
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 1: offense to move the ball much better and win. You know,

671
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 1: both the teams are pass happy, but when Fresno does

672
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 1: run the ball, I think they're gonna have a little

673
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 1: bit of success there because again while do a majority

674
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 1: of their linebacking corps has never started before, and you

675
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 1: know they're gonna have to corral some of Fresno States.

676
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 1: You know, pretty solid running back room in space. I'm

677
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: a fan of Fresno here, I'm gonna lay the three points.

678
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 1: I would also lay I'll lay anything under four for sure.

679
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: So if you see three and a half when you're

680
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 1: listening to this, I'm good with that, and Mike, I'm

681
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 1: gonna disagree with you, and I'm gonna take the under.

682
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 1: The total was at fifty four and a half just

683
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: because I do expect Fresno State's defense to suppress the

684
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 1: KM word passing offense on that one side.

685
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 2: Moving on to our next one, we.

686
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: Have a five forty five eastern kickoff on this one

687
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 1: on Saturday the Lending Tree Ball in Mobile, Alabama being

688
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: Mobile next month for the Senior Ball. Southern miss is

689
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 1: favored right now live in the market by six and

690
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 1: a half against Rice. Fortunately, we don't have as many

691
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 1: opt outs or injuries to talk about in this one.

692
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 1: In fact, Southern MYSS doesn't have any that I know

693
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: of right now. On the Rice side, though, we do

694
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 1: have a couple to talk about injuries. Their their quarterback

695
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 1: room has been decimated here at the end of the season,

696
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 1: which really came to the four in the last two

697
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 1: and a half three games which they all ended up

698
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 1: losing because they had to go down to these backup quarterbacks.

699
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: TJ McMahon their starter, that's when he went down, you know,

700
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 1: three games ago or whatever. And Wiley Green, who had

701
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 1: you know, at times been considered a starter for this program.

702
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: He's been injured for most of the season and when

703
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 1: he came they tried to bring him back late in

704
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 1: the season, you know, in part because McMahon had gotten hurt.

705
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 1: Wiley or Wiley Green reaggravated the injury right away. I

706
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 1: think Green's done for the season. McMahon is very very

707
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: iffy for this one. You could consider him very questionable.

708
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 1: But if if you're out there listening, I would look

709
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 1: into the TJ. McMahon status because big difference between TJ

710
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 1: McMahon and then the couple kids that they have been

711
00:33:57,960 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 1: playing since then.

712
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 2: Who have not done very well.

713
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 1: And then the other one for Rice Luke McCaffrey, who

714
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: Mike you remember him from the recruiting trail, had come

715
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 1: into school as a ballet Foo quarterback, bounced between a

716
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 1: couple of different schools, then he went to Rice. Couldn't

717
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 1: win Rice's quarterback job either. He stuck around though this time,

718
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 1: and they switched him to receiver. He had a break

719
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 1: all year. McCaffrey did fifty four catches and over eight

720
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,319
Speaker 1: hundred receiving yards, but he's been injured for the last

721
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 1: two games, which is further hurt the Rice passing attack.

722
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: I'm McCaffrey status right now is totally up in the

723
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 1: air from a health perspective. But the other thing is

724
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 1: I don't think he said anything about this publicly, but

725
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 1: there have been some rumors that he may consider jumping

726
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 1: for the end of his college career and using the

727
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 1: transfer portal. Again, certainly those are not substantiated at all,

728
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 1: but he is someone to monitor his status, opt out

729
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 1: status and stuff like that. Mike, with all this stuff said,

730
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 1: Southern miss minus six and a half against Rice with

731
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 1: a total of forty six.

732
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 2: What's your angle in this one?

733
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,479
Speaker 3: You know, the numbers speak to Rice, but everything you've

734
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 3: said that I looked at does not. And by numbers,

735
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 3: I mean Rice is a very good team against the spread.

736
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 3: They're a very good team. You know, in this game

737
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 3: and these matchups they've played four times. Rice is you know,

738
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 3: pretty much favorite against the spread. I mean, they're always

739
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 3: the underdog and they always cover. So they're four and

740
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 3: zero against Southern Miss against the spread as well. But

741
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 3: Southern Miss isn't missing anybody. And so this just flies

742
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 3: in the face of what I said about b Yu.

743
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 3: I don't believe Rice has the coaching staff bloombrings a

744
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 3: nice guy and all that stuff. I don't think they

745
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 3: have the coaching to keep this team like together. They're

746
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 3: not gonna They're not gonna circle the wagons like Sataki does,

747
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,439
Speaker 3: and everybody's not gonna buy in the way b Yu

748
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 3: I think will against SMU. So I'm gonna take Southern Miss.

749
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 3: I'm gonna lay the six and a half points that

750
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 3: could get over a touchdown. Usually again, I with so

751
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 3: many opt outs in college football these days, you know,

752
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 3: I try to lean towards the over under more. But

753
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,439
Speaker 3: in this case, uh, there are no opt outs. Southern

754
00:35:58,440 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 3: Miss is gonna be fine. They're gonna be the better

755
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,360
Speaker 3: football team. They could win this game and a blowout.

756
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 1: I agree with you, and that's what I think is

757
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 1: going to happen in fact, my system likes Southern Miss

758
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 1: more than any other side the entire ball season. My

759
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 1: system has a game on this a ligne on this

760
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 1: game of Southern Miss minus fourteen point eight against the

761
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:19,800
Speaker 1: Vegas line of six and a half. The Rice's season,

762
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:23,240
Speaker 1: the fortunes it just totally changed after the quarterback injuries

763
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,439
Speaker 1: at the time, they had started out five and four,

764
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 1: and then of course McCaffrey gets hurt as well for

765
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:29,839
Speaker 1: those last couple, but they start out five and four.

766
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 1: They end up losing the last three because of this,

767
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 1: because of the quarterback injuries and then the one to McCaffrey.

768
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 1: Their passing game just totally went away, and they have

769
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,879
Speaker 1: this pain by numbers running attack, and when their third

770
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 1: string four string quarterbacks are in, you know what they're

771
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 1: going to do, and so it becomes even easier to

772
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 1: shut it down. I think this would have been a

773
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 1: bad matchup for Rice as is. You can basically think

774
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: about it as the Southern Miss offense.

775
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 2: It's not good.

776
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 1: It's one oh seven sp plus, but it's basically analogous

777
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 1: to Rice's defense one eleven sp plus, So you can

778
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 1: just sort of forget those and focus on the other

779
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 1: side of the handicap. Southern missus defense is going to

780
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 1: absolutely destroy Rice's offense. You know, in particular, if you

781
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 1: know the third string guy is starting again as we expect,

782
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 1: or the four string kid, you know, whatever.

783
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:15,919
Speaker 2: They decide there.

784
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,919
Speaker 1: And then McCaffrey, I just cannot assume that he's going

785
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 1: to be in based on what happened at the end

786
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 1: of the season and based on some of these things

787
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:26,880
Speaker 1: that I'm hearing. Because of that, Rice's mediocre as his offense,

788
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 1: it now has to go up against this really really

789
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 1: good Southern Miss defense.

790
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 2: Southern Miss defense.

791
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 1: Is number forty SP plus overall, but they're awesome at

792
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:39,439
Speaker 1: creating havoc. Southern Miss is number thirteen in havoc. Great

793
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 1: Rice gives up a ton of havoc. So so Southern

794
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 1: Miss is going to be living in the backfield this

795
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 1: entire game and getting their hands all over the passes

796
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:49,359
Speaker 1: and stuff like that. I think you might even see

797
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: some some forest fumbles here, everything like that. Rice is

798
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:56,760
Speaker 1: one twenty eight and turnover margin this year, and Southern

799
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 1: Miss is really good at generating turnovers. Like I said,

800
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: this is a really really bad matchup for Rice, particularly

801
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 1: with their health situation and Southern miss quietly at the

802
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 1: end of the season, in contrast to Rice really been

803
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 1: coming on.

804
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 2: Southern miscovered five of their last six games.

805
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,919
Speaker 1: They're gonna keep the good times rolling and beat Rice

806
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 1: by double digits in that one, Mike, moving to our

807
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 1: next one, seven to thirty pm Eastern on Saturday. Oregon

808
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:23,919
Speaker 1: State favored by ten over Florida in the Las Vegas Ball,

809
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 1: and of course Las Vegas. We have a total on

810
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:28,759
Speaker 1: this one of fifty two. The big opt out on

811
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:31,720
Speaker 1: the on the or the big news on the Oregon

812
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 1: State side, Rajon Wright, one of their two starting quarnerbacks.

813
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: He's he's out for the season. You're not gonna see him.

814
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 1: The other one, Luke Musgrave, their tight end, he opted out.

815
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:43,919
Speaker 1: He's gonna go to the NFL. But Musgrave was sort

816
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 1: of in and out of the lineup. He was hurt

817
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: for a good part of the season, So that one

818
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 1: maybe not as big of a deal. The Florida side

819
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 1: is much bigger deal with with the opt out stuff.

820
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson, their starting quarterback, is obviously declared for the

821
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 1: NFL Draft.

822
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 2: He's gone, Mike, you know that the backup.

823
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 1: Quarterback for Florida have a really bad legal problems he

824
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:05,720
Speaker 1: has done, you got dismissed from the team. So Florida

825
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 1: has to start Jack Miller the third their third string quarterback.

826
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 1: That that could be a tough one. Florida also had

827
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:15,439
Speaker 1: Justin Shorter opt out their number two receiver to Ricky Pier.

828
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: Saw also that one of the best guards in the

829
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:20,919
Speaker 1: nation in Osiris Torrence, the kid who followed Napier over

830
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: from Louisiana. He he is declared for the draft and

831
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 1: he is not going to play in this game. Not

832
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 1: only that, Gervin Dexter, their stud defensive tackle, he is

833
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 1: declared for the draft and won't play. Ventral Miller, their

834
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 1: stud linebacker, has declared for the draft and will not

835
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 1: play this These are a lot of losses on the

836
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 1: Florida side because of that. This line has jumped all

837
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 1: the way up to Oregon State minus ten at that number, Mic,

838
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:42,840
Speaker 1: who do you like?

839
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is not this is not good for Billy

840
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 3: Napier at all because as we see, the Florida fan

841
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 3: base boosters all that stuff, are extremely impatient. And you know,

842
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 3: you come in your six and six, your first season,

843
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 3: you know the star quarter back was supposed to be

844
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:02,879
Speaker 3: the number one pick in the draft after the Utah win.

845
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 3: You know, never really he got better, but he never

846
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 3: really developed. You got so many opt outs, you got

847
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 3: kids looking to dip into the portal, and Oregon State

848
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 3: is a really really good football team, especially defensively. So

849
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 3: Jack Miller, good luck to you. You know, you were

850
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,360
Speaker 3: a four star kid out of Arizona going to Ohio State,

851
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 3: transferred into Florida. Couldn't find the field. Now you have,

852
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 3: but you didn't beat anybody out to do it. I

853
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 3: think Florida's gonna get absolutely croaked in this football game.

854
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 3: Oregon State. Everything's going well, everything's positive, and nobody knows

855
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 3: about them to one's seeing them. They're that quiet team

856
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 3: in the West Coast that nobody really has an idea

857
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 3: of how good they are because people don't stay up

858
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 3: late to watch football games. You know, their coach just

859
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 3: got an extension. The recruiting is going better, the portal

860
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,800
Speaker 3: is going better. Everything is positive there. And Billy Naper,

861
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 3: of course, is coming off some you know some a

862
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 3: difficult season at a difficult end of the season. I'm

863
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 3: taking Oregon State personally for myself. I'm laying the points.

864
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 3: Whatever it goes up to because I think this could

865
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 3: rise a little bit, but right now we're talking about ten.

866
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna win this game by twenty points.

867
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 3: I think Florida is gonna absolutely get destroyed, and I

868
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 3: think fans are not gonna be happy with Billy. And

869
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 3: if you're after this football.

870
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 1: Game, you remember a couple of years ago when Florida

871
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 1: had the opt outs of Kyle Pitts and they trass

872
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 1: with nobody Ye, yeah Grimes and you know they had

873
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:30,400
Speaker 1: all all the different optutes and you know what, Canary's

874
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 1: Tony was the other one, and yeah, Kyle Trask was like,

875
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna play and that he yeah, did awful and

876
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 1: then they had to brig at Emery Jones at the

877
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 1: end of the game and got annihilated by Oklahoma. This

878
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 1: one is just this smaller bowl version of that. Your

879
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 1: points are really well taken on Oregon State. Oregon State

880
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:47,359
Speaker 1: was going to be a buye for me in bull

881
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 1: season anyway spent, and now they've become all the more

882
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 1: so against this Florida team. I was gonna sell Florida

883
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 1: anyway in pull season. And this isn't even the bad

884
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: Florida team that we saw at the end of the year,

885
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,040
Speaker 1: right like, because of all the defections, Florida lost the

886
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 1: Inner Belt at the end of the season, and then

887
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 1: you know, had that two game losing because they also

888
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 1: lost to Florida State stup souther total twice at the

889
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: end of the year, and then all these different defections defense. Defensively,

890
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 1: the Gators were number seventy eight overall sp plus had

891
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 1: the bad defense. And now you take out two of

892
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 1: their best or maybe the two best, the front seven guys.

893
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 1: Now you're going against his run heavy Oregon State offense.

894
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:23,760
Speaker 1: Oregon State's offensive line is gonna maul Florida. They weren't

895
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 1: tough upfront anyway, and now you lose the two main

896
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 1: contributors there. So Oregon State is gonna do whatever they

897
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 1: want in terms of that, they're gonna be able to

898
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 1: stay on schedule. On the other side, Florida's offense was

899
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,320
Speaker 1: inefficient all year, but it was super duper explosive and

900
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 1: one of the most you know, they generated some of

901
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 1: the most explosive plays, but a lot of that had

902
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 1: to do with Anthony Richardson. Now you take out Richardson,

903
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:45,320
Speaker 1: you take out their best offensive lineman and Torrance you

904
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 1: take out their number two receiver in Shorter, this is

905
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 1: not looking good. And on Oregon State, they have a

906
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:53,359
Speaker 1: top twenty five defense. Like you said, people just don't

907
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 1: realize how good the Beavers are because they didn't see

908
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 1: as many of their games. The Beavers are legit and

909
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 1: they're gonna drop kick Florida. I'm with you, Mike. I

910
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 1: think this one is Oregon State by twenty or more.

911
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:05,240
Speaker 2: Moving on, I would.

912
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 3: Put a large deal on this. It's just telling you.

913
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 3: Plus the mentality that I can't stress here enough. Florida's

914
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:15,359
Speaker 3: mentality is not good right now. It's just not There's

915
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 3: not a lot of buy in right now. In Oregon State,

916
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,839
Speaker 3: there is one hundred percent full buying. So go big

917
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 3: on this one.

918
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: Our last game on Saturday. We have a kickoff in

919
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 1: this one in nine to fifteen Easter in the Frisco

920
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 1: Ball in Frisco, Texas Chorus. Boise State is a ten

921
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite right now in the market

922
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 1: against North Texas. We do have to say North Texas,

923
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:39,799
Speaker 1: this is very very close to their stadium, so it's

924
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 1: you know, you could consider it sort of de facto

925
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 1: home in terms of just the locale. Although North Texas,

926
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 1: of course, a very strange firing after the season of

927
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 1: Seth Latrell, their head coach, after North Texas had just

928
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 1: reached their conference title game. You know what we heard

929
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 1: afterwards was Latrell had been told, Mike, you mentioned the

930
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:59,359
Speaker 1: eight win threshold, but when we were talking earlier about

931
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 1: a different coach, Latrelle apparently was given that before the

932
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 1: season by the North Texas admin and they were like, yeah,

933
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 1: you didn't win the you didn't get there for the

934
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 1: conference title game. We're not going to give you a

935
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 1: shot in the ball game. So they asked him. There's

936
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 1: all sorts of weird stuff going on there. They're trying

937
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 1: to find an a d as Well, haven't hired, haven't

938
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 1: hired a new coach, but North Texas, fortunately for them,

939
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 1: no opt outs. On the Boise State side, George Lani

940
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 1: hurt his shoulder in the Mountain West title game. He

941
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 1: did return to practice last week and he is expected

942
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 1: to play. Stephen Cobbs, one of their starting receivers. He

943
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:32,319
Speaker 1: missed the last two games of the regular season. His

944
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,840
Speaker 1: status is unclear. Mike, and this one, who do you like?

945
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 3: Absolutely, Boise State lay the line again, This is a

946
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 3: team in North Texas As. You said that eight number

947
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 3: doesn't matter if you make the conference title game. Seven

948
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 3: and six isn't going to play for us for one

949
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 3: of eight wins. This is a team sort of influx and transition.

950
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 3: Boise State a much better football team to start with,

951
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 3: I believe, and also more together. So I know you

952
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 3: might think opposite of this, because a ten and A

953
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,359
Speaker 3: has a lot to lay okay in a game that is,

954
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:15,240
Speaker 3: as you said, close to North Texas and North Texas

955
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 3: may be sort of like rallying. But I think Boise

956
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:21,840
Speaker 3: State wins this game by thirteen fourteen points. I'm tempted

957
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 3: about the over, but I don't really know enough as

958
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 3: to how many points North Texas is going to score.

959
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,800
Speaker 3: I believe Boise State will score, So give me Boise

960
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 3: State in this one. It's an odd firing. As you mentioned,

961
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 3: we've had odd firings. We've had, you know, the Sadderfield

962
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 3: thing was kind of like a force out. This was

963
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 3: an odd firing Navy. I mean, we've had some weird situations.

964
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 3: And what it does is it crumbles the infrastructure. And

965
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:47,320
Speaker 3: that's what you want. You fire seth Ochell. You want

966
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 3: you want to start over. So it's almost like, you know,

967
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 3: blowing up a building and having everything collapse and then

968
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 3: building from the foundation. But this is a team that's

969
00:45:56,440 --> 00:45:58,359
Speaker 3: going to have to build from the foundation, and they're

970
00:45:58,360 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 3: not gonna be ready for it in this Bowl game.

971
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 2: Me Boise State, I think that's well said.

972
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 1: It's a part of the reason why I just can't

973
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:07,919
Speaker 1: take North Texas here. I do lean towards Boise State,

974
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:11,000
Speaker 1: even though the line has justifiably moved up as the

975
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 1: market has sort of flooded money on on Boise State.

976
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:16,399
Speaker 1: But I trust Boise State to bounce back from their

977
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 1: loss in the Mountain West title game to the aforementioned

978
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 1: Fresno State. Teylon Green, the quarterback for Boise State, the

979
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 1: big dul threat kid, I think he's gonna have his

980
00:46:24,640 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 1: way with this really bad North Texas defense. We saw,

981
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 1: you know, the last time North Texas was all they

982
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:33,239
Speaker 1: got absolutely shredded by utsa. North Texas at defense gotten

983
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:36,279
Speaker 1: shredded by every decent offense at it's faced all season long.

984
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 1: So I don't think Boise State's gonna have any problems

985
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:41,439
Speaker 1: with that, especially, you know, if indeed Holani is close

986
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:44,800
Speaker 1: to one hundred percent for this game, as reportedly he's

987
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:45,839
Speaker 1: moving closer to it.

988
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:48,319
Speaker 2: Between Holani and between Green's rushing.

989
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,880
Speaker 1: Utility, You're not gonna be North Texas is not going

990
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 1: to be forcing Boise State to punt whatsoever in this game.

991
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 1: So so the Boise State offense is gonna be fine.

992
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:59,280
Speaker 1: And then on the other side, Austin un the old

993
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 1: you know, the twenty late twenties year old quarterback for

994
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 1: North Texas. He did declare for the draft, or he

995
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 1: says he's going to declare for the draft, but he

996
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 1: said he's going to play in this game. But I've

997
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 1: never been a big fan of Austin and Mike we

998
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 1: were talking about this in our last episode. All of

999
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 1: his counting stats this year were accrued in you know,

1000
00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 1: playing these crappy defenses and running scores up against the

1001
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:21,840
Speaker 1: better defenses he faced, he was not good, and so like,

1002
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:24,719
Speaker 1: I don't trust him, especially against this Boise State pass

1003
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:27,839
Speaker 1: defense that throughout the season has been pretty pretty good.

1004
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:31,839
Speaker 1: And Boise State also, you know, barring the Fresno State one,

1005
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 1: they did have a you know before that, they had

1006
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 1: a really good finish.

1007
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:36,400
Speaker 2: To the regular season.

1008
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:38,840
Speaker 1: But even if you include the Fresno State game, Boise

1009
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 1: covered seven of their last eight games. I do think

1010
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,280
Speaker 1: they probably keep the good times rolling here against North

1011
00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 1: Texas guys. Before we get back to our final couple

1012
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:49,800
Speaker 1: games on the card, we want to tell you about

1013
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:53,880
Speaker 1: this opportunity to win. As signed Isjia McKenzie Buffalo Bills,

1014
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:57,360
Speaker 1: Minnie helmet courtesy of our friends at Pristine Auction. You

1015
00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 1: need to subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now.

1016
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:04,760
Speaker 1: Comment below on the video if you're watching this on YouTube,

1017
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 1: and that's it to qualify. We will be announcing a

1018
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,880
Speaker 1: winner right here on this channel, so make sure to

1019
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,439
Speaker 1: turn on your notification so you can be alerted when

1020
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 1: new episodes are up and to claim your prize.

1021
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 2: Mike.

1022
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 1: Moving into the home stretch. Now we've gone from Saturday

1023
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 1: to Monday, December nineteenth. This is a two thirty Eastern kickoff.

1024
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:26,840
Speaker 1: I love when the ball games start playing during the weekdays.

1025
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 1: It's one of my favorite things.

1026
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 2: This one the.

1027
00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:32,959
Speaker 1: Myrtle Beach Bowl in Conway, South Carolina. Marshall right now

1028
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 1: is a ten point favorite over Yukon. Live in the market,

1029
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 1: your Yukon Huskies.

1030
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 2: Mike.

1031
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 1: We have a total on this game of forty and

1032
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 1: a half. No reported opt outs on the Marshall side

1033
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 1: that I have seen Yukon. The running back Nathan Carter

1034
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 1: is in the portal, but Carter, Mike, as you know,

1035
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 1: was banged up for most of the year, So I mean,

1036
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,319
Speaker 1: it's not much of a manifestation in terms of, you know,

1037
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 1: a loss whatever. One thing to keep an eye on

1038
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:59,439
Speaker 1: the Yukon side. They had sort of cluster injuries both

1039
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 1: of running back and wide receiver this year. Yukon thinks

1040
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:05,240
Speaker 1: that there's a shot that they could get Cam Ross

1041
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:08,160
Speaker 1: and Keeland Marlin back for this game from injury.

1042
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 2: We don't know on that yet though.

1043
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 1: It's totally up in the air, but they've sort of

1044
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 1: come back to practice in a limited capacity, So that's

1045
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 1: something to keep an eye on.

1046
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:15,720
Speaker 2: Mike, Who do you like in this game?

1047
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 3: This is a hard one, man. I mean, obviously we

1048
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 3: know I didn't believe in Yukon at the beginning of

1049
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:23,440
Speaker 3: the season. The job Jim Moore did is probably, you know,

1050
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:26,840
Speaker 3: if you stack it up, even against the Lance Leopolds

1051
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,400
Speaker 3: of the world, it's the best job in college football

1052
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 3: this season.

1053
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 2: He should have been a Coach of the Year finalist.

1054
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 2: Jim Moore, he should have been Absolutely.

1055
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 3: He's the one to eleven football team that Randy Edgel

1056
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:39,080
Speaker 3: just cash money and drove into the ground and he said,

1057
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 3: you know, oh well goodbye, good luck. I mean he

1058
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 3: literally almost burn this program to the ground independent status.

1059
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:52,280
Speaker 3: You know, facilities, nobody's using recruiting, that's nowhere, no fans

1060
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 3: port on an off campus stadium. And they had Jim

1061
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 3: Morego six and six. But ten, you know, ten's the

1062
00:49:57,440 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 3: big number. I don't care. I mean, Marshall's probably gonna

1063
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 3: win this foot They're a better defensive team. They're actually

1064
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:06,439
Speaker 3: a really good defensive team. Yukon can't score as much

1065
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 3: away from home. At home, they're a much better football

1066
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 3: team than they are on the road. And I know

1067
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:13,600
Speaker 3: this isn't a road game in the sense where they're

1068
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:16,680
Speaker 3: at their opponent's home stadium, but they're going to South

1069
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:19,799
Speaker 3: Carolina and when they get on a plane, they lose

1070
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 3: about seventeen points of offense. But ten, I'm gonna say

1071
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:26,840
Speaker 3: Yukon because they've been so good against the spread this season.

1072
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 3: They've just been consistently that team that surprises me. You know,

1073
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 3: I've always said, like I can't in Connecticut, I'm not

1074
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 3: allowed to bet on Yukon games. Boy, I wish I could,

1075
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 3: because I make so much money, because they did for

1076
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 3: years and years and years. This year I would have

1077
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:42,719
Speaker 3: lost my shirt. They're five and one against the spread

1078
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 3: in their last six games playing as an underdog. Obviously

1079
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:47,359
Speaker 3: underdog here, there's seven to one of their last eight

1080
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:51,239
Speaker 3: games against the spread. Overall, they play well against the

1081
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 3: spread out of conference. Everything speaks to me that they're

1082
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:57,560
Speaker 3: going to keep this game within ten points. The thing

1083
00:50:57,560 --> 00:50:59,680
Speaker 3: that scares me is Marshall has a very good defense,

1084
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 3: as and you kind doesn't score as much on the road.

1085
00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:05,359
Speaker 3: But if they can put together a couple drives, put

1086
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,359
Speaker 3: together a few points here and there, they're gonna stay

1087
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,480
Speaker 3: within ten. Marshall's gonna win this, but take Yukon to

1088
00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 3: cover the ten.

1089
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:12,799
Speaker 1: I'll keep my thought short so we can keep it moving.

1090
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 1: My Marshall, I'm gonna take them minus the ten. I'm

1091
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 1: also going to take the under at the forty and

1092
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 1: a half. My systems total on that is thirty eight

1093
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:23,879
Speaker 1: and a half, and my adjusted side total. My thing

1094
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,879
Speaker 1: on the side is Marshall minus fourteen point six. Very

1095
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:30,279
Speaker 1: very in short here, Marshall's defense is, if not the

1096
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:32,279
Speaker 1: best in the G five. It's one of the top two.

1097
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:35,320
Speaker 1: They're gonna shut out the lights on Yukon. Yukon's not

1098
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 1: gonna be able to do anything in this game. And

1099
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 1: then on the other side, we can trust Marshall's running game.

1100
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:41,880
Speaker 1: They have one of the better rushing attacks in the

1101
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 1: G five as well, and they just got back with

1102
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:46,319
Speaker 1: Shaun Ali after kyl and Labour in the Florida State

1103
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 1: transfer had already broken out as a star, you know,

1104
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:51,239
Speaker 1: earlier this season. So now Marshall has two of the

1105
00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:53,239
Speaker 1: best running backs in the G five. They're gonna be

1106
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:55,359
Speaker 1: able to move the ball on you know, a Yukon

1107
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 1: defense that did play better than we thought. But Marshall's

1108
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:00,000
Speaker 1: gonna have no problem scoring. I think they're gonna be

1109
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:02,600
Speaker 1: You come by double digits, Mike Our. Next one, this

1110
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:05,800
Speaker 1: is a Tuesday game three thirty pm Eastern, the famous

1111
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 1: Idaho BA tatle Ball, everybody's favorite in Boise, San Jose.

1112
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 1: State is minus three and a half in the market

1113
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 1: against Eastern Michigan. Total on this one of fifty four

1114
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:20,000
Speaker 1: and a half, we have only a couple different opt

1115
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 1: out and injury new or actually nothing on this one.

1116
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 1: I take it back. We don't have anyone that I've seen.

1117
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:27,000
Speaker 1: Who do you like in this game?

1118
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:31,720
Speaker 3: Mike? I like Eastern Michigan. This lion is a tricky one,

1119
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 3: you know, and it's probably gonna fluctuate a little bit more.

1120
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:38,040
Speaker 3: You know, San Jose States a good football team no

1121
00:52:38,040 --> 00:52:40,200
Speaker 3: one's ever heard of. That's why they're favored in this game.

1122
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:44,080
Speaker 3: Eastern Michigan obviously is a team that you know, nobody

1123
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:47,360
Speaker 3: really knows a whole lot about, but they win football

1124
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:49,680
Speaker 3: games that they aren't supposed to win. They're very good

1125
00:52:49,719 --> 00:52:52,839
Speaker 3: against the spread. They're very good as an underdog, you know.

1126
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 3: Now San Jose State is not good against the spread.

1127
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:57,960
Speaker 3: They're just not. They're a good football team, but they're

1128
00:52:58,000 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 3: owing six in the last six games against the spread

1129
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:03,239
Speaker 3: that you're gonna lose money on them consistently, and they

1130
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:05,479
Speaker 3: become one of those teams after four weeks, five weeks

1131
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:07,279
Speaker 3: in a row if you bet them, I'm not gonna

1132
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 3: bet them anymore. So you know, this is Eastern Michigan

1133
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 3: to me. You can break down the Jimmies and Joe's

1134
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 3: X as those, but I'm looking at the number and

1135
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 3: San Jose State has let me down far too many times,

1136
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:20,839
Speaker 3: and I think Eastern Michigan is good enough football team

1137
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 3: to actually money line this. I wouldn't mind money lining it.

1138
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a couple of games earlier.

1139
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 1: You know, I've talked about big discrepancies between my numbers

1140
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 1: in the Vegas number this one in terms of both

1141
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:32,319
Speaker 1: the side and the total. It's the closest of any

1142
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 1: game on the ball schedule. My adjusted line on this

1143
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:37,719
Speaker 1: one is San Jose State minus three point three. It's

1144
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:39,759
Speaker 1: minus three point five in the market right now, and

1145
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:42,360
Speaker 1: my adjusted total is actually smacked out fifty four and

1146
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 1: a half on what the Vegas one is. I am

1147
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 1: going to Mike, I agree with you. I'm gonna take

1148
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 1: the points with Eastern Michigan just very shortly here. The

1149
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:52,799
Speaker 1: reason is because I trust Eastern Michigan and I don't

1150
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:54,839
Speaker 1: trust San Jose State as far as I.

1151
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 2: Can throw them. Eastern Michigan.

1152
00:53:57,440 --> 00:53:58,879
Speaker 1: You know, one of the things they do really well

1153
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:02,000
Speaker 1: is keep score of games really close. You know, That's

1154
00:54:02,040 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 1: part of Chris Creighton's philosophy and stuff like that. And

1155
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:07,399
Speaker 1: they're really good situationally in part because they get into

1156
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:09,840
Speaker 1: that situation a lot. This year, they win five and

1157
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 1: one in one possession games. They're a tough team. Chris

1158
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: Creighton is a proven bold commodity at this point. He's

1159
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:17,880
Speaker 1: three to one against the spreading his career in the postseason.

1160
00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 1: And then the other thing. Uh, San Jose State, they

1161
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:24,560
Speaker 1: really stumbled down the stretch. They had a tragedy on

1162
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 1: their team. One of their teammates sadly passed away in October.

1163
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 1: Ever since then, they've They've gone all seven against the

1164
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:33,760
Speaker 1: spread in their last seven to close out this season.

1165
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 1: San Jose State just wants to be done with this season.

1166
00:54:37,160 --> 00:54:40,600
Speaker 1: They didn't They didn't agree to play remake. What do

1167
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 1: you say, replay that game against New Mexico State that

1168
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:44,960
Speaker 1: have been postponed. They could have done it on the

1169
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:47,520
Speaker 1: conference title weekend, but they didn't want to. I think

1170
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:49,760
Speaker 1: San Jose State just wants to move on from this season,

1171
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:52,399
Speaker 1: move into next year. Eastern Michigan baddlely wants to win

1172
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:54,560
Speaker 1: this one. The wrong team might be favored here. My

1173
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 1: system might disagree with me, but that's that's what I

1174
00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 1: think they're and Mike moving on to our the last

1175
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:00,879
Speaker 1: game that we're going to talk about on this episode.

1176
00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:06,040
Speaker 1: This is another Tuesday Kickoff or Tuesday Game seven thirty

1177
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 1: pm Eastern the Boca Raton Ball in Boca Raton, Florida.

1178
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 1: We have Toledo against Liberty. Toledo live in the market

1179
00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:14,759
Speaker 1: right now is a four and a half point favorite.

1180
00:55:14,840 --> 00:55:17,520
Speaker 1: We have a total on this game of fifty four

1181
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:23,240
Speaker 1: and the only inactives here and injuries, they're more minor

1182
00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 1: ones that The one thing I did want to mention

1183
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:28,560
Speaker 1: is Liberty got back both Charlie Brewer and Caden Salter

1184
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 1: at the end of the season. They both played along

1185
00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:33,920
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Bennett in the last game. You assume with

1186
00:55:33,960 --> 00:55:35,600
Speaker 1: it a couple of weeks that you have in between,

1187
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 1: that those two guys are going to be healthy, which

1188
00:55:38,080 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 1: is big for Liberty's offense. And then, of course the

1189
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 1: other thing being Hugh Freeze left Liberty for Auburn. So

1190
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 1: Liberty right now has the interim staff as they're waiting

1191
00:55:46,040 --> 00:55:47,400
Speaker 1: for Jamie Chadwell to come in.

1192
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 2: Mike, who do you like in this one?

1193
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 3: So it's the expression is give me Liberty or give

1194
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:54,640
Speaker 3: me death. But in case no, it's not give me

1195
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 3: Toledo or give me death. Liberty has limped their way

1196
00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:00,000
Speaker 3: to the finished here and I'll lose in the un

1197
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:02,800
Speaker 3: come Virginia Tech to Mexico State. You free shopping himself

1198
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:06,000
Speaker 3: around for that Auburn job, lack of focus overall, and

1199
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:09,160
Speaker 3: they couldn't stop the run to save their lives. And

1200
00:56:09,560 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 3: what did we see from Toledo to win the MAC

1201
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:17,040
Speaker 3: A really strong running attack. So that rushing attack against

1202
00:56:17,040 --> 00:56:20,080
Speaker 3: a bad Liberty rushing defense, which is getting worse every game,

1203
00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 3: it seems, is going to be the difference here. And

1204
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:24,839
Speaker 3: Toledo's gonna win this football game by more than four

1205
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:26,360
Speaker 3: and a half, probably more than seven.

1206
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:30,760
Speaker 1: I like how you put the Toledo offense against Liberty

1207
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:34,600
Speaker 1: defense handicap. I do expect Toledo's offense to have a

1208
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:37,479
Speaker 1: ton of success here. One of the things I didn't

1209
00:56:37,480 --> 00:56:39,319
Speaker 1: mention was Daykwon Finn did come back at the end

1210
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:41,680
Speaker 1: of the season for Toledo, played the entire game in

1211
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:44,640
Speaker 1: the MAC title game. Toledo won that beat Ohio by

1212
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 1: ten points and they covered and Daikwon Finn proved that

1213
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:49,280
Speaker 1: he was healthy. You know, he'd been in a walking

1214
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:51,400
Speaker 1: boop before then last week. If you take out the

1215
00:56:51,400 --> 00:56:53,720
Speaker 1: one sack he took I think it was for ten yards,

1216
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:56,719
Speaker 1: Daykon Finn ran for like ninety five yards, you know,

1217
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 1: just on his other runs or whatever. So his mobility

1218
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:02,799
Speaker 1: is back, has a good running game anyway, so they're

1219
00:57:02,800 --> 00:57:05,800
Speaker 1: gonna have success on the other side, and this is

1220
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:07,439
Speaker 1: a part of the reason why I'm gonna go over.

1221
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 1: I do agree with you, Mike in terms of leaning

1222
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:13,880
Speaker 1: towards Toledo. It's just where that line is. My system's

1223
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:16,280
Speaker 1: got a line on it of Toledo minus two, so

1224
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:18,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna sort of shy away from that one, even

1225
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:19,640
Speaker 1: though I do lean with the same way with you

1226
00:57:19,920 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 1: and go with the over. My system's total on this

1227
00:57:22,720 --> 00:57:24,920
Speaker 1: game is sixty three. That's nine points above where this

1228
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:27,920
Speaker 1: one is in Vegas. Right now, with the quarterback situation

1229
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 1: on both teams now being clarified, I think both these

1230
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:31,400
Speaker 1: offenses could.

1231
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:33,360
Speaker 2: Have success or will have success.

1232
00:57:33,480 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 1: So I'm going to roll with Toledo in that I'm

1233
00:57:36,600 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 1: sorry with the over, and then I lean towards Toledo.

1234
00:57:40,800 --> 00:57:42,560
Speaker 1: That's all, guys, that's all we that we have for

1235
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:46,000
Speaker 1: today on this episode. We will be back for three

1236
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:48,120
Speaker 1: more episodes where Mike and I go through all the

1237
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:51,320
Speaker 1: different Bowl games, and on Saturday morning this coming Saturday

1238
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:53,960
Speaker 1: at ten am Eastern, Mike and I will be live

1239
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:57,360
Speaker 1: for ninety minutes on YouTube on the Betting Pros YouTube channel,

1240
00:57:57,600 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 1: just like we were every Saturday during the regular season,

1241
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:02,920
Speaker 1: going over the next slate of games. And then also

1242
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:04,880
Speaker 1: if anyone in the audience has any questions, you can

1243
00:58:04,920 --> 00:58:07,360
Speaker 1: ask us player prop sides totals. We can also talk

1244
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:08,960
Speaker 1: some about the games that are going to be played

1245
00:58:09,000 --> 00:58:12,240
Speaker 1: on Saturday for Mike Farrell, the Godfather of recruiting. I

1246
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 1: am Thorne Eistram, a Betting Pros. Good luck with all

1247
00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:17,560
Speaker 1: your bets, enjoy ball season and we'll talk to you soon.