Speaker 1: Bitcoin. It's all over the news, but what is it?
Speaker 1: You hear lots of different things. It's lots of different
Speaker 1: things to lots of different people. People talk about it
Speaker 1: being money, a medium of exchange. Some people say it's
Speaker 1: only a store of value and will never be a
Speaker 1: medium exchange. Well, I'm here to tell you that it's
Speaker 1: all of that and more. I want to break down
Speaker 1: exactly how we can use this as a store vibe. Today,
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about sort of where it's been,
Speaker 1: but more importantly, where it's going into the future. And
Speaker 1: I'm going to break down a strategy of how I've
Speaker 1: figured it out a way how you can buy this
Speaker 1: scarce asset you could own it forever, literally retire off
Speaker 1: of it, and still continue to fund your kids, your grandkids,
Speaker 1: your great grandkids, and so much. Further, this is a
Speaker 1: strategy that only the ultra rich have used up until now,
Speaker 1: but with a technology like bitcoin, it becomes available to everybody.
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what we're going to talk about today.
Speaker 1: If youre just tune in and you're listening to the
Speaker 1: Mark Moss Show, we talk about the world do the
Speaker 1: lens of politics, finance, and technology, and today we're going
Speaker 1: to talk about finance and technology, of course, how bitcoin
Speaker 1: is revolutionizing the finance industry, a technology revolutionizing that, and
Speaker 1: how you and I can use this to build wealth
Speaker 1: for generations, generational wealth. Now, before we get into the
Speaker 1: exact strategies and how you can employ that, we'll talk
Speaker 1: a little bit about sort of where it's at right
Speaker 1: now and where it's going. So we'll start there now.
Speaker 1: First of all, if you're not aware, I don't know,
Speaker 1: if you've been living, you know, in a bomb shelter,
Speaker 1: underground or something like that. Then if not, then you
Speaker 1: already know that bitcoin has been making a massive gains.
Speaker 1: Right we had the ETF that came out recently, and
Speaker 1: leading up to the ETF, we saw the price of
Speaker 1: bitcoin continue to rise over and over and over, and
Speaker 1: it's not back to its previous all time high yet,
Speaker 1: but it's close. It's certainly knocking on the door. But
Speaker 1: the point I want to hit on first is that
Speaker 1: it's not back to its new all time to a
Speaker 1: new all time I priced in US dollars. Now, this
Speaker 1: is one of the reasons why bitcoin or something like
Speaker 1: bitcoin is important a neutral reserve asset, more importantly, not
Speaker 1: just a neutral reserve asset. Gold was a neutral reserve asset,
Speaker 1: A neutral reserve asset. When I say when I say that,
Speaker 1: I mean an asset that nobody can control. Right. The
Speaker 1: problem is is that we use money dollars or euros
Speaker 1: or yuan or yen or payss as a unit of account.
Speaker 1: Let me just back it up. Okay. Money is an
Speaker 1: evolutionary process. It's emergent. It's an evolutionary path that could
Speaker 1: make it not always does so. Money what we use
Speaker 1: as money, something to store our energy, our value, store
Speaker 1: our wealth in and use as trading as a medium
Speaker 1: exchange to get the goods and service that we want
Speaker 1: is has emerged and evolved throughout history. We've had lots
Speaker 1: of things be money or medium of exchange or stores
Speaker 1: of value. And those would be rocks, those would be feathers,
Speaker 1: those would be seashells, lots of things. Now gold emerged
Speaker 1: as that. But let me give you this evolutionary path.
Speaker 1: It starts with first a collectible. Wow, look at this
Speaker 1: cool rock. Look at this cool shell. It's pretty cool.
Speaker 1: I like it. I'm gonna keep it. Now. It starts
Speaker 1: as a collectible. Maybe if if it has the right
Speaker 1: actributes it could evolve from a collectible to a store
Speaker 1: of value. So we see today, like my kids collected
Speaker 1: all kinds of things when their little kids. One of
Speaker 1: the things that my daughters loved to collect with these
Speaker 1: little pet shops. There's like little tiny figurines, like little
Speaker 1: bobble heads. We had hundreds of these things. They collected them, right,
Speaker 1: every new release that came out, they had to have it.
Speaker 1: But it never evolved to a store of value. Even
Speaker 1: though we had one hundred, we had like containers full
Speaker 1: of these things. We never stored our wealth in them, right,
Speaker 1: they're not worth anything. But some collectibles do become a
Speaker 1: store of value. So baseball cards, collectibles that a lot
Speaker 1: of people store their wealth in, watches, fine art, old cars, painting, right,
Speaker 1: you get that. Pokemon cards, even people store their wealth
Speaker 1: in those, all right. So some of these collectibles, not
Speaker 1: the pet shops, but some collectibles do make it to
Speaker 1: the evolutionary path of becoming a store value. Then, maybe
Speaker 1: not all of them, most of them not, but if
Speaker 1: they have the right attributes, they could evolve to the
Speaker 1: next stage, which is a medium of exchange. All right. Now,
Speaker 1: in order to evolve into that, it has to have
Speaker 1: the right attributes of moneiness. So that's divisibility, portability, fungibility, sellability,
Speaker 1: things like that. Right, So, like a pet shop isn't
Speaker 1: going to make a good form of money because it's
Speaker 1: not divisible. It's just one pet shop. A cow can't
Speaker 1: be a good form of money because a cow is
Speaker 1: not divisible. A cow is not portable. How do I
Speaker 1: transport a cow? A banana is not durable. I can't
Speaker 1: store my wealth and bananas because they're gonna go bad. Okay,
Speaker 1: if it evolves to a medium exchange, then eventually it
Speaker 1: could evolve to what we call a unit of account
Speaker 1: where we start to measure things in it. And so
Speaker 1: now we're back to the measuring things. You have to
Speaker 1: understand that everything in life is a trade and feat currency. Basically,
Speaker 1: the dollar or whatever currency y're end is one half
Speaker 1: of every transaction. So how much is a gallon of
Speaker 1: gas for sixty nine four dollars and sixty nine cents
Speaker 1: per gallon? How much is a house three hundred thousand dollars?
Speaker 1: How much is a steak dinner sixty dollars? Right, so
Speaker 1: everything's measured in that unit of account. But here's the problem.
Speaker 1: One we have lots of units of account, so we
Speaker 1: have dollars, un one, pesos, et cetera. But more importantly
Speaker 1: number two is that each one of those denominators in
Speaker 1: the equation is constantly being manipulated adjusted. It's like I'm
Speaker 1: trying to build a house with an elastic tape measure.
Speaker 1: So back to what I was talking about. Sorry, long,
Speaker 1: long way around here. The US bitcoin has not made
Speaker 1: a new all time high priced in US dollars, but
Speaker 1: it did just hit new all time highs in fourteen
Speaker 1: different countries this week. Not one, not two, not three.
Speaker 1: We're talking about fourteen different countries that it hit this week,
Speaker 1: so it's a pretty big deal. Now, again, this kind
Speaker 1: of highlights the point of the problem that we have,
Speaker 1: which is one of the parts that bitcoin is here
Speaker 1: to solve, is that we don't have a neutral reserve asset.
Speaker 1: Everybody is managing on their own. Now, what are the
Speaker 1: fourteen countries that hit Argentina, Barandi, Congo, Egypt, Ghana, Japan, Laos, Lebanon, Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan,
Speaker 1: Sierra Leone, Sudan, and Turkey. So each one of those
Speaker 1: nations just hit a new all time high in bitcoin.
Speaker 1: The dollar, My good friend Brent Johnson, Santaio Capital. We've
Speaker 1: had him on my main YouTube channel many times. He
Speaker 1: talks about the dollar milkshake theory, and the dollar milkshake
Speaker 1: theories at the dollar will suck the liquidity out of
Speaker 1: all the other currenturrencies, and that's exactly what's happening. So
Speaker 1: the dollars like this dollar milkshake, it's draining liquidy out
Speaker 1: of all the other FEA currencies. And so we're seeing
Speaker 1: these currencies as I've just mentioned Lebanon, Turkey, Peru, Venezuela, Argentina,
Speaker 1: all of these currencies are collapsing as the dollars getting
Speaker 1: stronger and stronger and stronger. But the dollars getting stronger
Speaker 1: and stronger and stronger against other currencies, it's not getting
Speaker 1: stronger against other assets. That is a very key piece
Speaker 1: that you have to hit on. But back to this
Speaker 1: point that we're talking about. So we've seen it now,
Speaker 1: as I said, fourteen currencies, it's got back to a
Speaker 1: new all time high. Another key piece that I want
Speaker 1: to talk about bitcoin just real quickly. A lot of
Speaker 1: people will think that it's not a good store value.
Speaker 1: How can it be a good store value when it's
Speaker 1: very volatile. Well, first of all, volatile means that it
Speaker 1: goes up and down, So I guess the store value
Speaker 1: means it never changes. But as my favorite economist, lugwoodvon
Speaker 1: Misa says that in the world of economics, there there's
Speaker 1: no such thing as a constant. So if you're using
Speaker 1: things like oil or gold to measure, well, the amount
Speaker 1: of oil and gold is changing all the time, so
Speaker 1: there's never a constant until now there is. Right. So
Speaker 1: bitcoin has a fixed supply, and so it is a
Speaker 1: good store value. But it's volatile and it's going up.
Speaker 1: But if you look at it over any short term period,
Speaker 1: you could say, well, but look it's down. So for example,
Speaker 1: I just said that right now bitcoin's sitting around a
Speaker 1: fifty two thousand dollars and the high was set at
Speaker 1: sixty nine thousand. So Mark, how can you say it's
Speaker 1: a good store value. I bought it at sixty nine
Speaker 1: thousand and it's only worth fifty two. I lost my value.
Speaker 1: It's not a good store value, it's not a good
Speaker 1: hedge against inflation. I lost money. Well, what I'd say
Speaker 1: about that is that you have to zoom out, and
Speaker 1: what we can see is that bitcoin is a four
Speaker 1: year bet. So in business, in finance, we have what
Speaker 1: we call cycles. We have long term business cycles, we
Speaker 1: have debt and credit cycles, we have real estate cycles,
Speaker 1: and we also have bitcoin cycles. And so whether it's
Speaker 1: a business or an investment, or a real estate or bitcoin,
Speaker 1: you have to understand the cycles. Otherwise you're kind of
Speaker 1: talking like somebody who's not really well informed. But I
Speaker 1: don't want that to happen. I want you to be informed.
Speaker 1: So let me break it down for you. It's actually
Speaker 1: pretty simple, but I gotta take a very quick break.
Speaker 1: If you're just tune in, you're listening to the Mark
Speaker 1: Moss Show talking about bitcoin and its evolutionary path. I'll
Speaker 1: be back with more in a minute. Don't go away,
Speaker 1: bear back, all right, welcome back. If you just tune in,
Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Moas Show, we're talking about
Speaker 1: bitcoin in bitcoin cycles, business cycles, real estate cycles, credit cycles,
Speaker 1: and so much more. So. What I was talking about
Speaker 1: is bitcoin is making you all time highs and fourteen
Speaker 1: currencies not yet in the US dollar, and actually when
Speaker 1: you adjust the US dollar for inflation back to them
Speaker 1: being so manipulated. If we look at that, the bitcoin
Speaker 1: is nowhere near back to an all time high because
Speaker 1: the dollar isn't worth near what it used to be
Speaker 1: back then. But going back to what I'm talking about here,
Speaker 1: so we know that there's business cycles, there's credit debt cycles,
Speaker 1: Like I said, even in real estate. So I started
Speaker 1: my career in real estate as a real estate investor,
Speaker 1: and I still own and buy a lot of real estate.
Speaker 1: Typically the sort of rule of thumb with real estate
Speaker 1: would be like for your house, like don't buy a
Speaker 1: house unless you plan to hold it for at least
Speaker 1: five years. And the reason why is because over a
Speaker 1: five year period, even though real estate has gone down before,
Speaker 1: it typically comes back up. And so you're going to
Speaker 1: be pretty safe if you have at least a five
Speaker 1: year record. With businesses, specifically you know, bigger businesses, it
Speaker 1: typically takes years to make to become profitable, right, so
Speaker 1: you're investing money, investing money, you're building building building eventually
Speaker 1: comes profitable. For a big business, you know, something that
Speaker 1: might go public, like a public traded company, typically you
Speaker 1: have like a ten year period, which is why with
Speaker 1: like venture capital and things like that, they have a
Speaker 1: ten year holding period. So I know if I invest
Speaker 1: in this early stage company, I got to just sit
Speaker 1: back and away for ten years. I know, if I
Speaker 1: buy this piece of real estate, I gotta sit back
Speaker 1: away for five years. And bitcoin is like the same way.
Speaker 1: If you buy bitcoin, you need to sit back and
Speaker 1: wait for four years. What we can see going back
Speaker 1: through now about fifteen years of data that there's never
Speaker 1: been a four year period that Bitcoin's been down. So
Speaker 1: in this four year cycle, during a four year investment period,
Speaker 1: bitcoin has never had annualized returns under thirty percent. Now,
Speaker 1: let's put this into perspective. The S and P five hundred,
Speaker 1: which has been absolutely crushing it averages depends on what period?
Speaker 1: Is it a sixty year cycle and eighty year cycle?
Speaker 1: Depends is it over the last twelve months? Right? So
Speaker 1: what period? But over like a sixty year period, the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred returns about seven and a
Speaker 1: half eight percent kind of depends on what period it is,
Speaker 1: but somewhere in the seventy percent range, right, Okay, So
Speaker 1: during a four year investment period, any four year period,
Speaker 1: Bitcoin's never had annualized returns under less than thirty percent.
Speaker 1: That's pretty good. No matter how bad you time the
Speaker 1: investment market, if you would have bought at the the
Speaker 1: previous peak in twenty seventeen, doesn't matter where you're at.
Speaker 1: Within four years you had averaged at least thirty percent, right,
Speaker 1: So that's pretty good. It's man, was that four or
Speaker 1: five times what the SMP five hundreds is done. Now
Speaker 1: if we look at the four year investment period against
Speaker 1: other assets, we can see, like I said, bitcoin has
Speaker 1: about thirty to sixty percent annualized returns in that four
Speaker 1: year period, the SMP five hundred has had about a
Speaker 1: ten percent annualized return. Real estate has had about a
Speaker 1: ten percent return as well. Why have a SMP five
Speaker 1: hundred and real estate both had about ten percent because
Speaker 1: they're perfect proxies for inflation. Perfect proxies. What does that mean?
Speaker 1: That means they basically move up at the rate of inflation,
Speaker 1: So you're not making money, but at least you're sort
Speaker 1: of protecting or offsetting your losses. Whereas bitcoin isn't just
Speaker 1: keeping up with inflation, it's beating inflation, which is what
Speaker 1: we want. Right the goal I mean, obviously step number
Speaker 1: one don't lose your money, right, don't let the state
Speaker 1: steal your money through inflation set number one. But two,
Speaker 1: how can we get ahead. And if you're just making
Speaker 1: your ten percent in real estate or in S and P.
Speaker 1: Five hundred, you're not getting ahead. Now, let's go back
Speaker 1: and just look at some math. Let's not go too
Speaker 1: far back again. We can cherry pick data. But there's
Speaker 1: two big epochs of the financial world that I talk
Speaker 1: about quite a bit, and I think we have to
Speaker 1: understand the world to this lens. The financial world with
Speaker 1: this lens. In two thousand and eight, the world changed.
Speaker 1: The way that central banks and governments interact in financial
Speaker 1: markets changed forever, and it's only been accelerating. So what
Speaker 1: happened in two thousand and eight in the United States,
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing. Not only did they
Speaker 1: launch quantitative easing where they started pumping money into the markets,
Speaker 1: but they started pumping money into certain parts of the
Speaker 1: market like buying mortgage backed securities, buying bonds, things like that,
Speaker 1: and that forever changed the way the world works. So
Speaker 1: a lot of times when you look at a financial data,
Speaker 1: if you go back pre two thousand and eight, you
Speaker 1: can't just take that forward because it's not the same.
Speaker 1: The second epoch was basically continuation of that first one.
Speaker 1: And this is the pandemic. So in twenty twenty, the
Speaker 1: world changed. The world had never seen the entire economy
Speaker 1: literally shut down overnight. Businesses that have been in business
Speaker 1: for decades just shut down. We've never seen that before.
Speaker 1: And we also again never saw the central banks of
Speaker 1: the world work in markets like they had done in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty. It's two thousand and eight times one thousand, right,
Speaker 1: So instead of very slowly, very minimally affecting the markets,
Speaker 1: they just jumped full bore in, which is why in
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, when the S and P five
Speaker 1: hundred dropped about sixty percent, it took seven years to
Speaker 1: get back to a previous all time high. But in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty the market dropped about the same but it
Speaker 1: took like three months, all right, So we have to
Speaker 1: understand there's two different epochs. So I don't want to
Speaker 1: cherry pick data, but a lot of data that we
Speaker 1: look at from a financial standpoint is sort of from
Speaker 1: a two thousand eight from a twenty twenty standpoint. So
Speaker 1: let's just look at from twenty twenty. So in twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: the world was locked down. It's complete chaos. I know,
Speaker 1: if we're all going to die. We didn't know what
Speaker 1: was going on, and the governments of the world did
Speaker 1: something that they'd never done before, which is send everybody
Speaker 1: in the world a stimmy check. Did you get one?
Speaker 1: I didn't get one, unfortunately, but I think you had
Speaker 1: to make less than seventy five thousand dollars. I didn't
Speaker 1: get a stemy check. But they sent stemy checks twelve
Speaker 1: hundred bucks to everybody. Now, some people, most people used
Speaker 1: that money for door dash groceries, to pay rent. A
Speaker 1: lot of people started gambling with it, like Robin Hood
Speaker 1: took off everyone's trading options, doing cryptocurrencies. A lot of
Speaker 1: people took trips, whatever it was. A lot of people
Speaker 1: just took the stimmy and they spent it, which is
Speaker 1: what the government wanted, right, they wanted to stimulate the economy.
Speaker 1: But if we would have taken that twelve hundred dollars,
Speaker 1: which I'm sure many people have taken that twel hundred
Speaker 1: dollars and put it into bitcoin at that time, and
Speaker 1: we fast forward to today now about four years later,
Speaker 1: that twelve hundred dollars investment into bitcoin is now worth
Speaker 1: nine thousand, two hundred and thirty dollars from twelve hundred
Speaker 1: to ninety two hundred. That's a six hundred and sixty
Speaker 1: nine percent return. Six hundred and sixty nine percent return.
Speaker 1: Now that's crazy, right. If you use your twelve hundred
Speaker 1: for the stimulus purposes they wanted, and you bought a
Speaker 1: bunch of food at the grocery store or door dash,
Speaker 1: you probably gained a bunch of weight. But if you
Speaker 1: would have put it in a bitcoin, you would have
Speaker 1: gained a bunch of money. So the takeaway that I
Speaker 1: want to point to here is that if you have
Speaker 1: the right term perspective, and look, if you don't have
Speaker 1: the right term perspective, you have no business investing your money.
Speaker 1: I've talked about this before. I get asked all the time, Mark,
Speaker 1: what's the best asset I should buy? And it's like,
Speaker 1: if you don't know the answer to that, you probably
Speaker 1: shouldn't be buying anything. Even if I told you what
Speaker 1: the best investment is, you probably shouldn't buy it because
Speaker 1: you don't understand it. You won't understand how much you
Speaker 1: should buy, How much should you buy? What you should
Speaker 1: you be watching? What if there's new information that comes
Speaker 1: out that says we need to sell right, and so like,
Speaker 1: if you don't understand enough to know what to buy,
Speaker 1: you're certainly not kind of enough to manage that safe.
Speaker 1: And it's something I say quite a bit, which is
Speaker 1: that the risk is always in the investor and not
Speaker 1: the investment. So I talk about this quite a bit,
Speaker 1: like in terms of like surfing. If I took you
Speaker 1: to Hawaii to pipeline where the waves are thirty feet
Speaker 1: and you're from Kansas, you've never been in the ocean before,
Speaker 1: and I took you out there, you would probably drowned, okay,
Speaker 1: But there's hundreds of people out there every day just playing,
Speaker 1: having fun in the waves, you see. So the risk
Speaker 1: isn't in the wave necessarily, it's in the surfer or
Speaker 1: the person that goes out into the waves. And the
Speaker 1: same is true with your investments. The risk is in
Speaker 1: the investor, it's in you. So again, if you don't
Speaker 1: understand that there's business cycles, there's investment cycles, there's debt
Speaker 1: and credit cycles, there's bitcoin cycles, there's real estates. If
Speaker 1: you don't understand those things, then you probably shouldn't invest
Speaker 1: in the first place, which is why I'm breaking it
Speaker 1: down for you right here. If you're just tuning in.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Mark Mass Show. We're talking about bitcoin,
Speaker 1: the past, the present, and more importantly, where it's going,
Speaker 1: and how buying a little bit of bitcoin today could
Speaker 1: potentially retire you for the rest of your life. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna break all that down, break down the math. If
Speaker 1: you're just tuning again, like I said, you're listening to
Speaker 1: the Mark Mass Show, I'll be back after a very
Speaker 1: short break. Don't go away right back, all right, welcome back.
Speaker 1: If you just tune in yourthing to the Mark Moss Show,
Speaker 1: and we are talking about the most groundbreaking or revolutionary
Speaker 1: technology the world has ever seen, which of course is
Speaker 1: a bitcoin. And I know that sounds a little bit
Speaker 1: hyper bowl, hyperbolic, whatever, however you say that word because
Speaker 1: a lot of people say it's just like old technology.
Speaker 1: It's like an old rock and Mark, you don't know
Speaker 1: what you're talking about. It has scaling issues. Okay, those
Speaker 1: are like twenty sixteen arguments. You're still bringing those up.
Speaker 1: Things change. And I'm old enough to have been around
Speaker 1: pre Internet, and I remember using the Internet as it
Speaker 1: was being developed and the Internet would never scale, no
Speaker 1: one would ever use it. I've been there as a
Speaker 1: matter of fact, I've told this story before. In two
Speaker 1: thousand and once we had the dot com run up,
Speaker 1: and then we in two thousand we had the dot
Speaker 1: com crash. In two thousand and one, the year after
Speaker 1: the big crash, I had this great idea that I
Speaker 1: was going to build an e commerce website and sell
Speaker 1: products online. And the problem is is that back then
Speaker 1: there was no like word press or Shopify. There was
Speaker 1: no Amazon eBay, there was no Amazon was there, but
Speaker 1: at the time it wasn't really being use for that,
Speaker 1: so there's really no way for me to just go
Speaker 1: sell e coom And I had to hire a developer
Speaker 1: and I think I spent like twenty five thousand dollars
Speaker 1: back then, which is a lot of money to build
Speaker 1: just like the most basic of like e commerce stores
Speaker 1: you can imagine, right. And then I wanted to start
Speaker 1: selling products. I was in the action sports physically in
Speaker 1: like the motorcross niche and I went to these companies
Speaker 1: and I said, hey, I want to sell your products
Speaker 1: on my website. And they laughed at me and they
Speaker 1: told me that nobody would ever buy anything online. It
Speaker 1: was ridiculous, and I'm like, well, I think they will
Speaker 1: and you know, you could be right. I could be right,
Speaker 1: but I'm willing just to give you the money. I'll
Speaker 1: buy your stuff. And a lot of companies told me that,
Speaker 1: but they didn't even want their products being sold on
Speaker 1: the Internet because it was it had this stigma, you know,
Speaker 1: had just had this big crash. Everyone thought it was
Speaker 1: a scam. It was never going to scale. As a
Speaker 1: matter of fact, the Internet had been around since like
Speaker 1: the seventies and eighties, through like Darbay, the military. But
Speaker 1: the first WWW, the first public website, was in nineteen
Speaker 1: ninety The first bitcoin, I'm sorry, the first Internet purchase
Speaker 1: was nineteen ninety four. Nineteen ninety five, we had the
Speaker 1: IPO Netscape, which then set the whole thing into motion
Speaker 1: to go into two thousand. But yet by two thousand,
Speaker 1: about thirty years after the Internet was invented, ten full
Speaker 1: years after it went completely public, six full years after
Speaker 1: the first purchase. And this is in two thousand, this
Speaker 1: is when it's all over TV and it's pets dot com,
Speaker 1: it's Webman dot com. Even then, less than ten percent
Speaker 1: of people had ever bought anything online. Because it just
Speaker 1: takes time. It just takes time. And it also wasn't
Speaker 1: very usable. The Internet was hard to use, it was
Speaker 1: way too slow, and it wasn't really until about two
Speaker 1: thousand and seven when the iPhone came out that really
Speaker 1: the Internet started taking off. Now it's a long, long story,
Speaker 1: but here we are back to bitcoin. I know it's
Speaker 1: an old technology. It's very slow. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's old technology. The point that I was going to
Speaker 1: make is that I've heard that one hundred I've heard
Speaker 1: it one thousand, I've heard it ten thousand times. Before
Speaker 1: technology scales, you just got to give it time. And
Speaker 1: we're there now back to the point that I'm making.
Speaker 1: So we talked about where bitcoin is. It's eating all
Speaker 1: these other currencies, it's made high and fourteen currencies. Where
Speaker 1: could it go is anybody's guess, But there are some
Speaker 1: educated guesses that we can have, and they sound a
Speaker 1: little crazy, but I'm going to go ahead and throw
Speaker 1: them out to you. Anyway. What we do know is
Speaker 1: since bitcoin's inception, it's averaged about a two hundred percent
Speaker 1: compounded annual growth rate. We do know that, okay, But again,
Speaker 1: as we say in the finance world, that past performance
Speaker 1: is no guarantee of future performance. So just because it's
Speaker 1: had that doesn't mean it will continue to that. It could,
Speaker 1: it couldn't. We don't know the answer to that. But
Speaker 1: what we do, so like back to sort of like
Speaker 1: venture capital investing, what we do is we try to
Speaker 1: we try to guess this. When I'm investing into a business,
Speaker 1: an early round business, venture capital my goal because they
Speaker 1: say I'm raising fifteen million at a sixty million valuation,
Speaker 1: I'm like, where are you getting a sixty million dollar
Speaker 1: valuation from? Well, I'm going into the food space and
Speaker 1: I'm going to disrupt these couple companies and this market
Speaker 1: is this big, and if I can get this percentage
Speaker 1: of that market, it would give me that market cap. Right,
Speaker 1: And so we can look at bitcoin the same way,
Speaker 1: So like what assets, what asset classes, what business is,
Speaker 1: what sectors is it disrupting? How much could it get
Speaker 1: from there? Now, there's a bunch of ways we can
Speaker 1: do this. We can look at growth rates. We can
Speaker 1: look at Metcalf's law for scaling. We can look at
Speaker 1: the supply demand curve of bitcoin because we know that
Speaker 1: in advance. We can look at the asset categories that's
Speaker 1: breaking down. So we can look at a couple different
Speaker 1: measurement tools, and let me just run you through a
Speaker 1: couple of those. Now, first of all, we sort of
Speaker 1: we know the supply demand curve, we know the metrics
Speaker 1: that it runs on, and so if we look at
Speaker 1: that alone, it's going to sound kind of crazy. But
Speaker 1: per Fidelity, which puts out amazing research on bitcoin, they've
Speaker 1: been in bitcoin since twenty fourteen, I believe, when they
Speaker 1: started mining. In per Fidelity's own research, they say that
Speaker 1: by twenty thirty eight bitcoin could be one billion dollars
Speaker 1: per bitcoin. Now, I do want to point this out
Speaker 1: that when bitcoin is worth one billion dollars, it's not
Speaker 1: in today's dollars. Okay, you have to understand that in
Speaker 1: time when we start to have heavy inflation sort of
Speaker 1: like what we've been having, but even worse like in Zimbabwe,
Speaker 1: for example, everybody became a billionaire. Everyone was a billionaire
Speaker 1: in Zimbabwe. The problem was it was three hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty billion for one single egg. And so you have
Speaker 1: to keep this in mind, like you already know, like
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars doesn't buy you what one hundred
Speaker 1: thousand dollars did twenty years ago. When I was a kid,
Speaker 1: like being a millionaire was everything, and today being a
Speaker 1: millionaire like in California, like you could still be broke.
Speaker 1: So you have to understand that when in twenty thirty eight,
Speaker 1: when they're projecting to be worth a billion, a billion
Speaker 1: dollars is not that much money. A billion dollars might
Speaker 1: be like a million dollars, you know, something like that.
Speaker 1: So that's their projection, okay, but that's based off the
Speaker 1: supply demand curve and the growth rate and Metcalfs law
Speaker 1: and things like that. But if we look at like industries,
Speaker 1: it's it's disrupting and stealing value from we can get
Speaker 1: different calculations. So, for example, we look at bitcoin as
Speaker 1: a store of value. Great, So what other things are
Speaker 1: we storing our wealth in today? What we store a
Speaker 1: wealth in gold, we store our wealth store value in stocks,
Speaker 1: in real estate, in offshore bank accounts, things like that.
Speaker 1: So if we add those up, thirty to forty trillion
Speaker 1: off shore bakecounts, twelve to thirteen trillion dollars in gold,
Speaker 1: eighty trillion dollars of stocks. If we add that up
Speaker 1: three hundred fifty trillion in real estate, we get to
Speaker 1: about seven hundred trillion dollars so could it get two
Speaker 1: percent of that, could it get five percent of it?
Speaker 1: Could get ten percent of it? And the answer is yes,
Speaker 1: like of course it can. And so that could easily
Speaker 1: push bitcoin up to two, three, four five million dollars.
Speaker 1: The guess is how quickly could it get to that point?
Speaker 1: And we don't know. I'm thinking that maybe a million
Speaker 1: dollars by the end of the decade could be somewhat realistic.
Speaker 1: I know that sounds crazy, right now, we could go
Speaker 1: even further. So we know that if we look at
Speaker 1: total assets in the world, we have about nine hundred
Speaker 1: trillion nine hundred trillion. Now we talked about at the
Speaker 1: beginning of this the evolutionary path that collectibles go on
Speaker 1: to becoming maybe some of them go on to becoming
Speaker 1: a unit of account. So that means it goes from
Speaker 1: the member of the path, right, So it starts as
Speaker 1: a collectible, it goes to a store value, goes to
Speaker 1: medium exchange, and they can go to a unit of account.
Speaker 1: If it becomes a unit of account, then everything is
Speaker 1: priced in that unit of account. So if you take
Speaker 1: if you think about it like this, nobody wants money,
Speaker 1: which is crazy, right. What we want is the goods
Speaker 1: and services that money buys us. So we use money
Speaker 1: as a place to park our wealth, to store our
Speaker 1: value until we're ready to deploy it to get the
Speaker 1: goods and services that we want. Think about it like that.
Speaker 1: So basically, what you have is all the goods and
Speaker 1: services in the world divided by all the money in
Speaker 1: the world. And if we get more goods and services,
Speaker 1: then the value of that money has to go up.
Speaker 1: So if bitcoin makes this evolutionary path, completes the evolutionary
Speaker 1: path and is able to go, we're already at the
Speaker 1: medium exchange stage. We're somewhere in between the store value
Speaker 1: and medium exchange stage. If we can complete that and
Speaker 1: move to a unit of account, maybe in a decade,
Speaker 1: maybe it's two decades, maybe it's three decades. If we
Speaker 1: get to that unit the count, we could reprice nine
Speaker 1: hundred trillion dollars worth of wealth in bitcoin. Now, hang on,
Speaker 1: this sounds crazy, I know, But nine hundred trillion divided
Speaker 1: by twenty one million brings a forty two million dollars
Speaker 1: price per pitcoin. No, I know that sounds absolutely crazy,
Speaker 1: and it is, but that's the potential. Now, this potential
Speaker 1: doesn't mean he'll get there. It's potential, but I want
Speaker 1: to talk to you. Let's let's let's take that. Let's
Speaker 1: take those big numbers off, and let's scale it back,
Speaker 1: and let's make it more practical for you. I'm going
Speaker 1: to come up with some numbers and tell you specifically
Speaker 1: how you could retire off of an asset like bitcoin.
Speaker 1: I'll be back with more in a minute, after a
Speaker 1: very short break. Don't go away, right back, all right,
Speaker 1: welcome back. If you just tune in, you're listening to
Speaker 1: the Mark Moss Show, and we're talking about bitcoin. We're
Speaker 1: talking about the potential of where it could go potentially
Speaker 1: on price point, and more importantly, we're going to talk
Speaker 1: about how you could leverage an asset like bitcoin to
Speaker 1: retire off of. Now, I want to just throw this
Speaker 1: out there. You can apply this to any asset. You
Speaker 1: could apply it to stocks, you can apply to bonds,
Speaker 1: you can apply it to gold, you can apply it
Speaker 1: to real estate. So this strategy is what the rich
Speaker 1: use in order to grow wealth really really fast. And
Speaker 1: again it doesn't have to be with bitcoin, it can
Speaker 1: be with anything. Now, it works better with bitcoin because
Speaker 1: bitcoin is the best performing asset, So the better the
Speaker 1: asset performs, the easier it is to enact this strategy.
Speaker 1: It works very well with real estate as well, because
Speaker 1: of the readily available mortgage loans. So I love to
Speaker 1: do it with real estate. I love to do it
Speaker 1: with bitcoin, but you can certainly do it with stocks,
Speaker 1: You can certainly do with gold, et cetera. All right,
Speaker 1: so what am I talking about. We're talking about buying
Speaker 1: an asset and then never selling it. When somebody asks me, Mark,
Speaker 1: at what price will you say you're bitcoin? I'm like,
Speaker 1: you don't understand the game. The goal is to get
Speaker 1: more assets, not more dollars. I mean I want to
Speaker 1: get more dollars, just want to get more assets. But
Speaker 1: the goal is to get more assets. It's like nobody
Speaker 1: buys a drill, they buy the whole. I don't want
Speaker 1: the drill, I want the hole, but I had to
Speaker 1: get to get thrill. So I don't want the money.
Speaker 1: I want the assets. And so when someone says you
Speaker 1: to sell your bitcoin's like, you don't understand the game.
Speaker 1: The game is to get more assets, and the goal
Speaker 1: is to get assets and never sell them, because the
Speaker 1: goal isn't money. The goal is assets, and the goal
Speaker 1: is for me to pass those assets to my kids,
Speaker 1: and those my kids to pass them to my grandkids,
Speaker 1: et cetera. So what you want to do is you
Speaker 1: want to buy scarce property, scarce assets, waterfront property, right
Speaker 1: downtown city blocks, and then you never sell them. If
Speaker 1: my great great grandfather had bought, you know, eight square
Speaker 1: blocks of downtown Manhattan and New York City, when would
Speaker 1: have been the right time to sell those? I mean,
Speaker 1: the answer is never, never, because if you sold those
Speaker 1: eight blocks, how would you ever buy those eight blocks
Speaker 1: back again? You would never be able to get that again.
Speaker 1: You can maybe buy one block, I mean maybe one
Speaker 1: building on a block. You never get eight blocks back
Speaker 1: right because it's too scarce, So you never sell it.
Speaker 1: What you want to do, and the other reason why
Speaker 1: you never want to sell it is because of taxes.
Speaker 1: The taxes are the best way to lose all your wealth.
Speaker 1: So if you're in a heavy tax state like California,
Speaker 1: for example, and your the top income BRAX at your bracket,
Speaker 1: you're paying fifty percent tax. So let me break this
Speaker 1: math down for you. If I were to buy one
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars worth of bitcoin and it doubles to
Speaker 1: two hundred thousand, which I think is likely in the
Speaker 1: next twelve to fourteen months. So I have one hundred thousand,
Speaker 1: it doubles to two hundred thousand. Well I'm like, well, shoot,
Speaker 1: I need a one hundred thousand to go buy this
Speaker 1: piece of real estate, or go launch this business, or
Speaker 1: to put into gold, whatever I want to do with it.
Speaker 1: I would have to sell the two hundred thousand dollars
Speaker 1: worth of bitcoin to get the two hundred grand, but
Speaker 1: then I would owe tax, So then fifty percent goes
Speaker 1: to tax, and I'm left with one hundred grand. I
Speaker 1: didn't really make any money. Well theoretically, I'm only paying
Speaker 1: tax on the profit, So I ended up with one
Speaker 1: hundred fifty Graand okay, or what I could do is
Speaker 1: I could I could keep the bitcoin, I could borrow
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand against it, and the beauty of that
Speaker 1: is that's debt, so it's tax free. So now I
Speaker 1: get the one hundred grand, but I still have the
Speaker 1: two hundred thousand dollars in bitcoin, so that still goes
Speaker 1: up in value. Now, as bitcoin continues to go up
Speaker 1: in value, that two under grand is going to two
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty three hundred three hundred and fifty four
Speaker 1: hundred first, as if I had sold it, I'm just
Speaker 1: out of the game altogether. The goal is to not
Speaker 1: get out of the game. If you haven't noticed, prices
Speaker 1: just continue going up. Homes just get more expensive, right,
Speaker 1: Cars just get more expensive. And the problem is if
Speaker 1: you're not in the game, which is the problem for
Speaker 1: millennials today. If you're not in the game, all you
Speaker 1: do is get further and further behind. It's easy for
Speaker 1: the millennia, or it's easy for the boomers because they
Speaker 1: bought when it was cheap and they just keep rolling
Speaker 1: that equity over, rolling the equity, rolling the equity over.
Speaker 1: But if you're not in the game, it's very difficult
Speaker 1: to get in. And that's what happens. If you were
Speaker 1: to sell your bitcoin or sell that trophy property, it's
Speaker 1: very difficult to get back in. So what you want
Speaker 1: to do is keep that trophy property, allow it to
Speaker 1: keep going up in value, and leverage debt against it
Speaker 1: because it's tax free and you still have the asset
Speaker 1: to compound the value for you. Does that make sense?
Speaker 1: That's the goal. Let's talk about some of the numbers
Speaker 1: that potentially could be behind this all right, So I'll
Speaker 1: run you through this now. First of all, like I said,
Speaker 1: this can happen on any asset. You can do this
Speaker 1: on real estate. It's what my good friend Robert Kiyosaki does.
Speaker 1: When Robert and I, he's been my mentor for twenty
Speaker 1: five years in books, but we became friends after I
Speaker 1: started going on to speak the speaking circuit, if you will,
Speaker 1: speaking at all these different conferences and things like that.
Speaker 1: And I remember specifically at our mutual friend George Gammon's conference,
Speaker 1: he was calling me out from stage. I was sitting
Speaker 1: in the crowd because I was living in Puerto Rico
Speaker 1: at the time, and he's like, oh, these guys like
Speaker 1: Mark Moss moving all the way to Puerto Rico with
Speaker 1: their families, so they don't if they can lower their
Speaker 1: tax liability. They don't understand. The rich like me don't
Speaker 1: pay taxes. That's what he would say. So Robert Kiazaki
Speaker 1: doesn't pay taxes because he uses the strategy does one
Speaker 1: percent use, which is to leverage debt. So you buy
Speaker 1: the real estate, you let the real estate go up
Speaker 1: in value, you borrow money against the real estate that
Speaker 1: comes out tax free. Let's talk about how you can
Speaker 1: do that with bitcoin. So let's just say bitcoin is
Speaker 1: not going to continue two hundred percent growth rate this year.
Speaker 1: I think it will one hundred and fifty percent next year,
Speaker 1: but then it's probably going to drop by fifty percent.
Speaker 1: Then it's gonna go up one hundred percent. Down is
Speaker 1: gonna go by fifty percent. Then it's going to drop
Speaker 1: thirty five percent. So it's gonna about what we've seen
Speaker 1: for the last fifteen years. You have like four good years,
Speaker 1: one down year, four good years, one down year, so
Speaker 1: I've sort of projected like that. So let's just say hypothetically,
Speaker 1: you buy one hundred thousand dollars worth of bitcoin today
Speaker 1: and in a year it's worth three hundred thousand dollars
Speaker 1: in bitcoin. Then it goes to one hundred fifty percent.
Speaker 1: So now you have it's worth seven hundred two thousand,
Speaker 1: Then it goes to one hundred percent, it's worth three
Speaker 1: and seventy five thousand, it goes to one hundred percent,
Speaker 1: it's worth sven hundred thousand. Okay, Now on year five,
Speaker 1: what I could do is I can take a loan
Speaker 1: I can borrow against my bitcoin, and I would only
Speaker 1: put ten percent at risk. Leverage is very dangerous. Okay,
Speaker 1: you could lose everything if you don't use credit properly.
Speaker 1: So I'm only advocating for ten percent. It's not gonna
Speaker 1: You're not gonna die with ten percent leverage. At worst,
Speaker 1: you just sell it, you just cash it in. That
Speaker 1: ten percent gives you seventy five thousand dollars. Now you
Speaker 1: have seventy five grand of debt that's non taxable. The
Speaker 1: next year you borrow ten percent again, and then you
Speaker 1: take that money, you pay off the previous debt, and
Speaker 1: you're left with seventy five thousand dollars again, a free
Speaker 1: cash flow. The next year, you can borrow ten percent again,
Speaker 1: which is enough to pay off the previous debt and
Speaker 1: give you seventy five thousand again. The next year you
Speaker 1: borrow ten percent again. The next year you have to
Speaker 1: go up to twenty percent because of the way bitcoin
Speaker 1: dropped down. But each time I borrow it gives me
Speaker 1: enough money to pay off the previous debt and have
Speaker 1: about seventy five grand to a free cash flow to
Speaker 1: live now. I have this all on a Calculator spreadsheet.
Speaker 1: If you want to get it, you can go to
Speaker 1: my website At my website is one Markmoss dot com.
Speaker 1: That's the number one one Markmoss dot com. You can
Speaker 1: download this entire worksheet workbooks you can understand this a
Speaker 1: little bit better. But not only is the amount of
Speaker 1: debt that we're leveraging stays about the same. It goes
Speaker 1: anywhere from ten to twelve percent. It goes as high
Speaker 1: as twenty percent in one year, but then it drops
Speaker 1: down into eight percent, seven percent, six percent. And each
Speaker 1: year the amount of free cash flow in debt that
Speaker 1: we keep goes up as well, starting at seventy five thousand,
Speaker 1: and in year twenty going up to its highest two
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty one thousand. Why because inflation you're gonna
Speaker 1: have to make that much more. If in twenty years
Speaker 1: from now, the equivalent of seventy five grand is going
Speaker 1: to be about two hundred thirty grand, which is again
Speaker 1: why you need to be doing something like this, because
Speaker 1: if you're not keeping up with or beating inflation, you're
Speaker 1: only falling further behind. Now at the end of a
Speaker 1: twenty year cycle. In this worksheet, you have taken out
Speaker 1: two point four million dollars of debt, but that's against
Speaker 1: fifty million dollars worth of assets. You ever heard this,
Speaker 1: I've tweeted about it before. But die with debt. So
Speaker 1: what you want to do is you want to leverage
Speaker 1: debt and you can die with that. I die with
Speaker 1: two and a half million dollars with a debt against
Speaker 1: twenty five million dollars of assets. So what so what?
Speaker 1: So we want to leverage debt? This is what the
Speaker 1: rich do. They don't pay taxes. Imagine when you pay taxes,
Speaker 1: you lose fifty percent. How much slower your wealth grows
Speaker 1: versus if you don't pay taxes, and how much faster
Speaker 1: it can grow. Now, there's way more advanced strategies on
Speaker 1: the back of this what I call the velocity of money.
Speaker 1: But I don't have time to get into all that.
Speaker 1: We're going to wrap it up here. If you want
Speaker 1: this worksheet and all the instructions and the videos that
Speaker 1: goes with it, just go to my website Onemarkmoss dot com,
Speaker 1: the number one Mark Moss, and you can download it's
Speaker 1: all for free. It's a free tool for you to
Speaker 1: sort of help you plot this out. Now, if you're
Speaker 1: just tuning in you're listening to the Mark Moss Show.
Speaker 1: Of course we're always talking about the decentralized revolution, the
Speaker 1: way the world is changing, and you either get with
Speaker 1: it and you take advantage of it, or you fall
Speaker 1: further behind. We talk about it through lens of politics, finance,
Speaker 1: and technology. If you're listening on the radio, this is
Speaker 1: my last radio show, so keep up with me on
Speaker 1: the podcast at It's the Mark Moss Show on your
Speaker 1: favorite podcast player or on YouTube tube at Market Disruptors
Speaker 1: and that's what I got. Thanks so much for listening.
Speaker 1: Until next time.