1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast on iTunes, 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. We'd like to learn 7 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:32,840 Speaker 1: more about investing, so we turned to Peter Anderson, chief 8 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: investment officer and vice president for Fiduciary Trust based in Boston. 9 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: Thanks very much for being with us, Peter, all right, 10 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: here's the scenario. SMP five hundred is up more than 11 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 1: on a fifty two week basis. Forget this three month stuff. 12 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: Let's just say rolling one year returns. Um, how do 13 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: you extract some of your profits safely? Uh? Even as 14 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: an institutional manager? How do you extract some profits safely? 15 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 1: And where do you redeploy? If you say, all right, 16 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: there's no reason to uh think that you've become a genius, well, 17 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:18,759 Speaker 1: you know the best way to navigate through uncertain times 18 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 1: them is to commit to sound principles. So I think 19 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,680 Speaker 1: what the heart of your question really is going forward 20 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 1: with all the uncertainties that we have right now. What 21 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 1: is the best way to stick to your principles if 22 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:35,680 Speaker 1: you have set them early in your investment horizon, and 23 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 1: do you make changes in midstream? And given that there 24 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 1: are so many uncertainties and we're having so much difficulty, 25 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: uh discerning facts from what I would call pure hopes, 26 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: that this isn't really the time to make major changes 27 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: given where we are what I would call in this 28 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 1: you know, the phases of the Trump administration. You know, Peter, 29 00:01:58,360 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people would probably agree with you, 30 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: which is the reason why we're not seeing a lot 31 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: of direction in stock or bond markets recently. Given that backdrop, 32 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: are you stockpiling cash, You're preparing for better liquidity when 33 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 1: there is some kind of uh reality or facts that 34 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,800 Speaker 1: come out that uh, that's for for people to actually, well, 35 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:19,519 Speaker 1: let me answer it this way. You know, what we 36 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 1: try to do is we go back to basics and 37 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 1: we say, look, there's a baseline right now. You always 38 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: have to focus on what do you think the baseline 39 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:29,519 Speaker 1: is for say, US equities, and then you take an observation, 40 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 1: you say, where is the SMP right now? And you 41 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 1: have to discern what is the difference between where your 42 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: baseline is. So, for instance, most people would rationally say 43 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: the SMP five D is going to return anywhere from 44 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 1: say six to eight percent annual lives in a year. However, 45 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: as Pam was saying, when you look at what the 46 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 1: return is now the SMP five, you have to account 47 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 1: for what is that giant gap between what you would 48 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: say your baseline is and what you're actually observing. And 49 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: the large extent of that, in our opinion, is what 50 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,239 Speaker 1: we would call, you know, the Trump premium, the details 51 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: of the future tax reform, infrastructure, all that, and you 52 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: have to get a sense of is that a reasonable premium? 53 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 1: And if it is, I would say you stay with 54 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 1: your program. If you determine that the premium is you know, overvalued, 55 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: then maybe you take some chips off the table. But 56 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: for our measurements right now, we think as long as 57 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 1: you're diversified and you do have reasonable exposure in the 58 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,639 Speaker 1: SP I think you stay the course until you get 59 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 1: more data. Before you get that data, tell us one 60 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 1: level down industry groups and specific cases if you can, 61 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: so that we learn what exactly you're talking about. Yeah, okay, well, 62 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 1: first off, let's just talk about how about even fixed income, 63 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: investor grade fixed income that's been getting a bad rap 64 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 1: recently because him most people think it's the equivalent of 65 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: asking to put your hand into an open flame, right 66 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: when the FED is an a rising interest rate environment? 67 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: And why would we stay in an exposure to investment 68 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: grade fixed income? And I think the answer overwhelmingly is 69 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 1: because it acts as ballot to the portfolio. So while 70 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 1: you can have debates about our spreads, um you know, 71 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 1: valued fairly, what will happen when rates rise? We still 72 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 1: advocate staying in fixed income to a certain degree in 73 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 1: case things don't go all the way everybody is expecting 74 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 1: and you want to have something that will most likely 75 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: are outperform in a disappointing environment. Well, in fairness, just 76 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 1: to give a sense of what the market, the investment 77 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: grade corporate bond market has done, it has been an 78 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 1: unprecedented quarter first quarter of investment grade bond sales in 79 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: the US, and the debt has preserved its value, actually 80 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 1: increasing by one point four uh in that first quarter 81 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 1: even with all of those sales. So it seems like 82 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: a lot of people, Peter do agree with you. I 83 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 1: want to just get your thoughts on a front page 84 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: story on the Wall Street Journal this morning talking about 85 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 1: a new posal at the FED to do two more 86 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:06,359 Speaker 1: rate hikes this year and then begin unwinding their balance 87 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 1: sheet in a in a gradual process. My first impression 88 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,480 Speaker 1: was this would be incredibly disruptive, particularly it's the longer 89 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 1: dated debt. What about what about you? What was your reaction? 90 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 1: I think it is and you know, I think it's 91 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: a little bit premature. I was somewhat surprised that that 92 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: was reported on given where we are right now, Lisa, 93 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:27,480 Speaker 1: it seems to me that, uh, even with the rate hike, 94 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 1: when you see how the tenure has done, I think 95 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: it is surprising to most people where it began and 96 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 1: where it ended in a rising rate environment. So to 97 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 1: actually project that we're going to have two more hikes 98 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: and then the unwinding, that's a lot of things have 99 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 1: to go a certain way in order to hang your 100 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:49,599 Speaker 1: hat on that, and then to make investment decisions based 101 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: on this, And you know, this chicken little mentality about 102 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 1: bonds is not appropriate when you think about diversified portfolio. 103 00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:00,040 Speaker 1: So let's assume there are even more multiple hikes. I 104 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:04,479 Speaker 1: would still argue that unless you're a pure speculator to 105 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: have a balanced portfolio. You still, you know, we're not 106 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,719 Speaker 1: always right, as we know, and you do have to 107 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 1: have fixed income in case you are wrong. Well, and 108 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: just to be clear, the direction of rates longer term 109 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 1: rates has been down as the Federal Reserve raises interest 110 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: rates in the shorter terms. So this has been sort 111 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 1: of the surprise going forward. Do you think that this 112 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: will continue, That we're going to see a flattening yield curve, 113 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 1: We're going to see this sort of lower growth expectation 114 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: within the bond market despite all the hopes that we've 115 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 1: seen reflected and stocks, well, let's just talk about and 116 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: here's uh, let's separate the facts from the hope. So 117 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,920 Speaker 1: what we know for facts right now is that there 118 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: have been two travel bands attempted and they've been forwarded. 119 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:45,479 Speaker 1: The health care reform has not been successful, and now 120 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:49,359 Speaker 1: we're seeing the NAFTA. You know, the preliminary disclosure of 121 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 1: that seems to be I would say most people would 122 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 1: would agree that it's it's less, it's been blunted, it's 123 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 1: not as aggressive as it has been. So you have 124 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,840 Speaker 1: to factor that into the sense of did we get 125 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 1: ahead of ourselves in November and December, thinking that all 126 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: this was going to be easily accepted and reflected in 127 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: the fixed income market is rising rates. I think now 128 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: what people are saying is, now that we have some 129 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 1: data points, let's project the success of tax reform infrastructure, 130 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 1: and maybe we've gotten a little bit too optimistic, and 131 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: in that case rates might actually slow down, given that 132 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: the Trump administration hasn't been as successful as people that 133 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 1: had originally fought back when he was elected. Peter Anderson, 134 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. A pleasure to 135 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 1: hear what you have to say, Chief investment officer and 136 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 1: vice president at Fiduciary Trust, coming to us from Boston. 137 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: Definitely the conundrum of the time, which is who is 138 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: right this sort of incredibly enthusiastic stock pickers or the 139 00:07:49,800 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 1: pretty parish, persistently barish fund investors. Well, Lisa Abrama's everybody 140 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: wants to know how many times the Federal Reserve will 141 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 1: raise interest rates, and since nobody knows, we try to 142 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 1: find people let at least have some thoughts in that direction, 143 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 1: and Holly List is one of them, Managing director of 144 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: Futures and Commodities Group for b t I G, joining 145 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 1: us from Chicago, Holly, thank you very much for being 146 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 1: on with us as always. You've been recently quoted as 147 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 1: saying the f O m C is like a US. Uh, well, 148 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 1: you said air for you know, air carrier, Um, what 149 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: do you mean by that? And and maybe tell us 150 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 1: who you're following in that convoy. I'm following myself and 151 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 1: that in that statement. I just think that they're slow 152 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: to move. They tend to make a decision and they 153 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: stick with it. Now we've seen over the past couple 154 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 1: of years they've raised once per year. They raised first 155 00:08:56,400 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 1: in December, they raised again in December, ones they just 156 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: raised again mid March. Now that's not to say that 157 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 1: they're only raising once per year, but I think they 158 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:09,719 Speaker 1: tend to move on a course of action, and they 159 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: don't tend to change that decision rapidly or tend to 160 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 1: stop that decision and reverse course. So I don't think 161 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: that they're certainly moving to ease anytime soon. I don't 162 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: think we've moved into that direction. But I don't think 163 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 1: that they're necessarily accelerating at this point either, And I 164 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:29,959 Speaker 1: don't think that they're going I don't think that the 165 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 1: economic data has shown us that they necessarily need to 166 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 1: raise four times per per year, although we have seen 167 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 1: a couple of non voting FED members have said that 168 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 1: they think that they're going to that they should be 169 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 1: raising four times per year at each meeting this year, 170 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 1: which would imply most likely every other meeting, which is 171 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 1: when we get a press conference out of FED share yelling. 172 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 1: So I don't necessarily think that they go from one 173 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: hike per year to four hikes per year, which would 174 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 1: certainly be a change in direction out of that aircraft carrier. Yeah, 175 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: at that aircraft carrier, I love it high. You know, 176 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 1: last week we heard from a lot of FED members, 177 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: and one of the dominant themes was that there is 178 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: a pretty heated discussion going on right now at the 179 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:21,320 Speaker 1: FED about shifting policy from rate hikes to curtailing the 180 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 1: balance sheet and sort of not reinvesting all of the 181 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:27,199 Speaker 1: proceeds that they're earning from their holdings. There was a 182 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 1: story in the Wall Street Journal today talking about how 183 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,200 Speaker 1: the FED is thinking about possibly starting that unwind later 184 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: this year. How disruptive do you think that would be? Well, 185 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:37,839 Speaker 1: I think if they don't give us any advanced notice, 186 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 1: that would certainly be disruptive. But probably the least disruptive 187 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:44,199 Speaker 1: of it. Once they start giving us some advanced notice 188 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 1: about how they're going to re be reducing their balance 189 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 1: sheet would certainly be a reduction in I shouldn't say 190 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: a reduction in, but certainly not reinvesting the proceeds. That 191 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: would certainly just be a reduction in the balance sheet. 192 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: By letting those proceeds not be reinvested, it would just 193 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,440 Speaker 1: be a natural reduction. You'd be using the money they 194 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 1: returning it to the treasury, just not be reinvesting it. 195 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: It would just be a natural decline in their balance sheet. 196 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 1: Use the money for something else or just returning it 197 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: to the treasury, and and that would just reduce it. 198 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 1: They'd give us some advanced notice and that we would 199 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: all just know that the balance sheet is going away. 200 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 1: I mean it started at a trillion, now you're up 201 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: to four and a half trillion. If they didn't give 202 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 1: us advanced notice, that would certainly be a different story. 203 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: And maybe if they also gave us some advanced warning 204 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: about what portion of the balance sheet maybe they would 205 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 1: let run off first. Maybe that would also give us 206 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 1: a better inclination about where it would be. As you know, 207 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: we all had that paper tantrum years ago under Bernaki, 208 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: and that would certainly exactly and that was sort of, uh, 209 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 1: not an advanced warning. And so we had that tantrum. 210 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 1: But if they gave us some advanced notice, that would 211 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 1: be a little bit better for all of us to 212 00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: get used to that. And that would certainly be a 213 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:03,200 Speaker 1: type of hike that we wouldn't necessarily need them to 214 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 1: raise rates as aggressively. And and so that could also 215 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: be the type of tightening contraction that we wouldn't need 216 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 1: additional rate hikes. So you know, at the end of 217 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 1: last year, after the U. S Election, a lot of 218 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 1: analysts were saying, look, we know we've been wrong about 219 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: the direction of interest rates. We know we've been wrong 220 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 1: about treasury yields, but this time we really think something 221 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 1: is different. Yields are going to rise materially given President 222 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: Trump's plans for infrastructure spending and regulatory cuts. Now at 223 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: this point do you hear from analysts and people you 224 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: work with, Well, maybe it's it's the same scene. Maybe 225 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 1: we're looking at the exact same picture as we were 226 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 1: earlier last year. Uh, just some of the furniture has 227 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 1: moved around. Well, and it's interesting because we haven't heard 228 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 1: that that rates have to rise. They are on a 229 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:55,680 Speaker 1: tightening cycle, and certainly some people have put line in 230 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 1: the sand two point six percent that to the long 231 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 1: term bear market we've seen basic the long term bull 232 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 1: market we've seen since n that will be over and 233 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: we haven't seen that. And we've gotten as close to 234 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 1: to sixty as you can just within the past month, 235 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:13,559 Speaker 1: and we've certainly turned around since then, so it doesn't 236 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 1: necessarily have to be I mean, the markets are gonna 237 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 1: test that resolve very frequently, and we've certainly been up 238 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: at to sixty just within the last month, and now 239 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: in ten years, we're back to the bottom end of 240 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: that range that we've seen over the past four months, 241 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 1: just within the past couple of weeks. So just when 242 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 1: you think it's gonna get bad, it sort of turns around. 243 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: And I think that's what we're seeing the past couple 244 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 1: of weeks and the data, Lisa, we haven't seen it 245 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 1: be as strong as it could be, and so I 246 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: think they're testing the resolve of the federal Reserve, they're 247 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 1: testing the resolve of the markets, and even if you 248 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: look in future space, we had a lot of investors 249 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 1: and traders be very short the treasury curve. They were 250 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 1: short treasuries from two years on out to the ultra bonds, 251 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 1: and now they've used those short positions fairly dramatically over 252 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 1: the past few weeks, and I think that's telling you 253 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: the marketplace does not see as significantly strong dad as 254 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 1: they did just a few weeks ago. Polly, as a 255 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 1: managing director of futures and Commodities, can you tell us 256 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 1: about gold, Well, you've certainly seen it move around a 257 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 1: little bit, but it hasn't gotten as strong there were. 258 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: There was just recently where people were talking about it 259 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 1: hitting two thousand dollars and now we've backed off of 260 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: that level. So I think if we're going today, yeah, 261 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: and if you were going to see inflation, I think 262 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 1: you would certainly see it higher than we've seen it recently, 263 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 1: and you haven't now the Fed. One of the Fed's 264 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 1: favorite inflation numbers is that core year over year PC. 265 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: It has been well below the two percent level that 266 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: they'd like to see it. And I think if inflation 267 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 1: was going to percolate almost where the FED would like 268 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 1: to see it, closer to that two percent level, I 269 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 1: think you would see old being moving higher, and we haven't. 270 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: For me, I like to look at the techno goals 271 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: and right now that twelve seventy one, now you're within 272 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 1: fifteen sixteen dollars of it. But until it gets above 273 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 1: that twelve seventy one level technically, and for me, it 274 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: would need to sustain above that level for at least 275 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, then I just don't see the 276 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 1: inflationary pressures percolating in the gold market. Polly Less, thank 277 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Holly Less is Managing 278 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: director of Futures and Commodities at B T I G 279 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 1: in Chicago. Thanks again for joining us. We're gonna take 280 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 1: a little bit into the numbers that we've been getting 281 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 1: out of GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, disappointing sales across the board. 282 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: UH car sales are plunging despite the fact that these 283 00:15:56,160 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: automakers are discounting their vehicles more heavily. To a little 284 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 1: bit more perspective on how significant these declines and these 285 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: disappointments are. I want to bring in Kevin Tynan, senior 286 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: Auto's analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Kevin, what stands out to 287 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 1: you about this about all reports? Yeah, well, I think. 288 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: I think the auto consumer is probably exhausted. Um. I 289 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 1: also think that c March is a funny month, and 290 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: that if the weather and parts of the country is 291 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: particularly bad in January February, March can be a strong month. 292 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: I think we saw some bad weather at least here 293 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 1: in the Northeast late in March, which probably will delay 294 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 1: things into if there was more significant demand. Wa wa, Kevin, 295 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 1: Hold on a second, you're blaming the weather. I think 296 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 1: that a lot of people have been expecting for a 297 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 1: long time. We've seen cooling demand and the fact that 298 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 1: people are tightening up their credit conditions, that they're this 299 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 1: lending standards. No no, no no, not just let it happen, Kevin, 300 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 1: let it happen. I'm just saying that some of what 301 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 1: would have happened in March might just slip into April 302 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 1: when we get uh tax rebates and tax returns are filed. 303 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 1: Uh So, I I agree the consumers probably a little 304 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 1: bit exhausted here. I think incentives an inventory are running high. 305 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: We'll probably use the next couple of months to bring 306 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 1: that down in line. But on the other hand, I 307 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 1: think that the the downturn in demand will be good 308 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 1: from if you look at the stocks of these companies 309 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 1: and that it will be a little bit of a test, 310 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,679 Speaker 1: a little bit of a stress test to see the 311 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: work that has been done, you know, the cost rationalization 312 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 1: post two thousand nine, to see where these companies come 313 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 1: in in terms of operating profit in a period of 314 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: less than spectacular demand that we've had recently. Well, looking 315 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:55,120 Speaker 1: at the stocks right now, Fiat Chrysler down four Look 316 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:58,239 Speaker 1: at General Motors the shares are down three and a 317 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 1: half percent and Ford Motor down two and a half percent. 318 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 1: Is that enough? Um? Probably not? But I think, like 319 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 1: I said, when you see earnings, you know you're gonna 320 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,159 Speaker 1: be talking about a run rate on operating income. You know, 321 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: for General Motors will be in the two billion dollars 322 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 1: of quarter range. You know. So, so is that warrant 323 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,159 Speaker 1: that kind of downturn or does it warrant something like 324 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: you're seeing at Tesla five and a half on on 325 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:28,679 Speaker 1: twenty you know on on the news that they're going 326 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 1: to hit a hundred thousand units globally in a year. 327 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,800 Speaker 1: You know, at this rate, so UM, I think there's 328 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:39,400 Speaker 1: some disconnecting the valuations there, obviously, But I think what 329 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:43,159 Speaker 1: it'll do for the General Motors and Ford and FI. 330 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,199 Speaker 1: Crisis of the world is to show that they can 331 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:49,119 Speaker 1: still be profitable when demand is not just constantly ramping 332 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: up and ramping up. Okay, Kevin, I'm before we moved 333 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: to Tesla. I want I want to just keep going 334 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 1: a little bit on the GM and the Ford and Chrysler. Yes, 335 00:18:57,880 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: this could be a little bit of a stress test, 336 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: but by all accounts, this dynamic could only get worse 337 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: given the fact that a whole slew of leases are 338 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 1: are set to come up, and that will basically flood 339 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 1: the market with supply. On the secondary market, decrease prices 340 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: create bigger losses for some of the financing companies that 341 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 1: are they have been fueling this auto purchasing boom that 342 00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 1: we've seen in recent years. I mean, how can this 343 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: how can this be a stress test if potentially will 344 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,880 Speaker 1: only get worse from here. Well, yeah, you're gonna see 345 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 1: a lot of off lease vehicles. When when you when 346 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: you think about that though, if you think about the 347 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:38,680 Speaker 1: registered vehicles in the US alone, we're million vehicles. There's 348 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,879 Speaker 1: gonna be five million coming off lease. So is the 349 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 1: market big enough to absorb that? Yeah, it certainly is, 350 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 1: and we're talking about a run rate of seventeen seventeen 351 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: point five million vehicles. So the new vehicle market will 352 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 1: certainly have to react in terms of pricing and or 353 00:19:56,119 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: volume to UH slightly more robust in terms of units 354 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 1: pre owned market, and I think it will. I don't 355 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: think it's the end of the world in terms of 356 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,360 Speaker 1: pricing for the industry. In fact, I would say that 357 00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 1: it's an opportunity for those dealer groups that are focused 358 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:16,719 Speaker 1: on the pre owned market. I think you're getting a 359 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: lot of late mileage I'm sorry, late model, low mileage, 360 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 1: high tech vehicles coming back off of lease, and it 361 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 1: may just cause an adjustment in the new vehicle market, 362 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 1: but I don't think in that, especially at retail, it's 363 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,679 Speaker 1: necessarily a bad thing that the gap between the two. Right, 364 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,360 Speaker 1: we look at the affordability gap and it's gotten way 365 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 1: out of control. New vehicles are averaging transactions of thirty 366 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:42,720 Speaker 1: five thou dollars, and with more used vehicles coming back, 367 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 1: those prices will have to come down to to maintain 368 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: that gap. That's a little bit more reasonable. Hey, Kevin, 369 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 1: you mentioned a hundred thousand units at Tesla UH. Tesla 370 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 1: stock is of five and a half percent. Just do 371 00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 1: the comparison, let's say Tesla versus one of the big three. 372 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,880 Speaker 1: So we got the perspective because the stock certainly isn't 373 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 1: telling you that today, right. So if you look at 374 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 1: let's take a measures like market cap, where Kuzla is 375 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 1: in the Ford range coming up on General Motors arguably, uh, 376 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: you know, a couple of billion dollars away there. And 377 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 1: if you were to look at Ford six million units 378 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 1: globally and off the top of my head, somewhere in 379 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: the range of eight billion in operating income last year, 380 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 1: General Motors was ten on roughly nine plus million units. 381 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,880 Speaker 1: So you're talking about a hundred thousand units with uh 382 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: no profitability and cash burned comparable in terms of market 383 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: cap with companies that are doing six to ten million 384 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 1: units and six to ten billion in operating in globally. 385 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 1: And I'm just perfect, that's perfect. You did it in 386 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 1: exactly the right amount of time. To Kevin Tynan, senior 387 00:21:55,600 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 1: autos analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, I want to turn to 388 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 1: a Senate Judiciary vote that may happen within the next 389 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:19,439 Speaker 1: few hours. Senators are considering denomination of Neil Gorsage to 390 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,879 Speaker 1: be the new member of the U. S. Supreme Court. 391 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 1: We're hearing things about nuclear option. We're thinking about is 392 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,679 Speaker 1: there going to be a filibuster. To give us a 393 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 1: better sense of what we can expect to hear about. 394 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 1: Kimberly Robinson joins us now. She's Supreme Court reporter for 395 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:38,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg b n A and is currently in Arlington, Virginia. Kimberly, 396 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 1: I want to start with the nuclear option. We've heard 397 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 1: a lot about Democrats that do not want Neil Gorsie 398 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 1: to get confirmed. What is the nuclear option? Well, the 399 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:52,200 Speaker 1: nuclear option is really just a way to reinterpret Senate 400 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 1: rules so uh that they can stop a filibuster and 401 00:22:56,680 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: put it forth or vote on the candidate um with 402 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 1: just a simple majority um, which currently Republicans have. Now, 403 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 1: is it possible that they will be uh going through 404 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 1: this exercise in front of the television and the public. 405 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 1: I mean, will this vote be carried live to the 406 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 1: point where it's going to be some uh end, you know, 407 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 1: down to the wire. Well, we actually have several votes 408 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 1: that um will be televised. So today we're hearing on 409 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 1: whether or not the committee will vote him out to 410 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 1: the full floor. We expect that they will, so, given 411 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 1: that Republicans have a majority on the committee and they 412 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 1: just need a simple majority to move him on. The 413 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,679 Speaker 1: votes that we've been talking about where these nuclear options 414 00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,480 Speaker 1: might happen will come sometime later in the week, UM, 415 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: probably on Thursday or Friday, and then we'll see about 416 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 1: a final vote on his actual confirmation UM sometime likely 417 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,560 Speaker 1: on Friday. UM. So these will all these things we 418 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 1: can all watch. Kimberly, what have we learned about how 419 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:03,440 Speaker 1: much support ealk course which has among Democrats. Well, it's 420 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,920 Speaker 1: it's involving minute by minute. So just today, Uh, we 421 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 1: saw from a handful of Democrats that Republicans are really 422 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,360 Speaker 1: trying to get on their side. Um. We saw one 423 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:17,400 Speaker 1: come out and say that she'll join the sylibuster um. 424 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:21,360 Speaker 1: So there hasn't been much support. Um. Only three individuals 425 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 1: have come out saying that they or three Democrats have 426 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,680 Speaker 1: come out saying that they won't a filibuster the nominee. Um. 427 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:31,360 Speaker 1: Republicans will need to find five more and UM, it's 428 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 1: really going to come down to the wire. I think, alright, well, 429 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:36,679 Speaker 1: I guess I'll make for good for good drama. Is 430 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 1: there any any thought to the repercussions if indeed the 431 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 1: vote he is not confirmed. Well, there has been a 432 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 1: lot of talk about whether or not Republicans can change 433 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,360 Speaker 1: this rule because it has been such an important rule. Um. 434 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 1: Music Senate is really known as a great deliberative body 435 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,399 Speaker 1: in part because they do things not by by a 436 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,160 Speaker 1: majority rule that they do in the House, but they 437 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,640 Speaker 1: need a number of minority votes as well to get 438 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 1: past bilibusters. So this could really change things for judicial 439 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 1: nominees versus Supreme Court um. And it could have the 440 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,679 Speaker 1: potential to leak over to the legislative side too. Have 441 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 1: you noticed a shift in rhetoric or tone after the 442 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,120 Speaker 1: health care bill that was proposed by the gop uh 443 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 1: group was didn't come for a vote, right, Well, you 444 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: know I did, and Um, we saw kind of some 445 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 1: shakiness on whether or not Democrats were going to attempt 446 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,199 Speaker 1: the silibuster after the health care bills failed, it did 447 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 1: seem like they were somewhat emboldened, and shortly after the 448 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 1: committee here finished questioning gorstage, many of them came out 449 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 1: um and said that they were going to try and 450 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 1: mount the silibuster, and it seems like they might be 451 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 1: able to pull it off. What about on the Republican side, 452 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 1: is there pretty much universal support for gors Yes, so 453 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 1: this is something that is contrary to the healthcare bill. 454 00:25:56,320 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 1: Here all Republicans support Gorsage and support uh getting him 455 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:05,480 Speaker 1: through without the filibuster. Are there other vacancies that have 456 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 1: yet to be filled that you can tell us about? Well? 457 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 1: On the Supreme Court, No, this is the ninth seat. Um. However, 458 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,760 Speaker 1: we do expect that there there will be some soon. 459 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,920 Speaker 1: There are a number of Supreme Court justices who are 460 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 1: in their upper seventies or eighties, so we had just 461 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 1: made that they would retire soon. Um. So what happens 462 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 1: this week with courses domination could have a big impact 463 00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,960 Speaker 1: on on the kinds of nominees we see for those 464 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: uh Supreme Court vacancies. What's the biggest argument that Democrats 465 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 1: have for not wanting him confirmed? Well, this morning we've 466 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 1: been hearing a lot about how evasive uh the nominineal course, 467 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 1: which was during the confirmation hearing, and uh so we 468 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,560 Speaker 1: heard UH Senator Lay say that he was being patronizing 469 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: and excruciatingly um evasive in his answers, and he said 470 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,720 Speaker 1: that that really prevents senators from being able to determine 471 00:26:55,240 --> 00:27:00,199 Speaker 1: his judicial philosophy and his cooler constitutional belief something that 472 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 1: they think that they should be considering during this this 473 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,480 Speaker 1: sharing time. Well, I want to thank you very much 474 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,440 Speaker 1: for being with us. Kimberly Robinson is our Supreme Court 475 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 1: reporter for Bloomberg b n A, giving us detail about 476 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,720 Speaker 1: the ascent of Judiciary Committee to vote on Neil Gore, 477 00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:24,679 Speaker 1: such as his nomination to the Supreme Court. Thanks for 478 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,400 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can 479 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever 480 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,640 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Pim Fox. I'm out there 481 00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter 482 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 1: at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You can 483 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 1: always at catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.