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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're running a game so smooth, so sweet,

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Speaker 1: splendid sisting just glorious.

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Speaker 2: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort,

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Speaker 2: four thousand percent.

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Speaker 1: Of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that? Shop with mind, buddy, and that's

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Speaker 3: why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left to the wide eyed, drilled fibus.

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Speaker 3: How on Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Oh and welcome to Wondergulf, the soccer betting podcast from

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Speaker 4: the Action Network. My name is Michael Ebuff and joining

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Speaker 4: me as always are my friends and colleagues BJ Cunningham

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Speaker 4: and Anthony Dubundo, and together the three of us are

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Speaker 4: going to handicap the remaining eight. At this moment, there

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Speaker 4: were eight matches in the midweek for the Premier League.

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Speaker 4: Arsenal Wolves Leeds Aston Villa have been chalked off the

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Speaker 4: schedule for now and that means that we'll start with

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Speaker 4: the ten am kickoff on Tuesday between Southampton. They're plus

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Speaker 4: two to forty five at home hosting the red Hot

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Speaker 4: Tottenham Hot Spurs plus one to fifteen the draws plus

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Speaker 4: two to fifty. Antonio Conte has his Spurs singing a

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Speaker 4: pretty sweet tune right now, Anthony. They're coming off a

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Speaker 4: really good win off over Crystal Palace. Sure, Wilfrid's a

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Speaker 4: Hot was kicked out of the game via red card,

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Speaker 4: so they were playing a ten man team for a

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Speaker 4: little over half the game. But before that it was

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Speaker 4: all Spurs too. This is starting to look legitimate, I think,

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Speaker 4: So what do you have for this one?

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Speaker 2: Well, first off, you know, the Premier League saw that

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Speaker 2: bj had put an Arsenal money line that in and

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Speaker 2: they realized that he was now officially back in on

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Speaker 2: the Gunners, and they said, we can't have it.

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Speaker 3: We're chalking the game.

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Speaker 2: No game Arsenal was postponed like twenty minutes later, So

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Speaker 2: Arsenal the Arsenal love will have to wait until next

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Speaker 2: episode when they played Manchester City. So that will be

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Speaker 2: a fun one for sure.

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Speaker 3: I can't wait for it.

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Speaker 2: Got my calendar circle ready to go. But you know what,

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Speaker 2: it's Tip Tottenham. It's hot shot Tottenham. I'll save you

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Speaker 2: the singing, but Spurs are back baby.

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Speaker 3: The numbers have been really impressive.

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Speaker 2: I mean, yes, they played up a man for sixty

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Speaker 2: five minutes today, but even if you take that out,

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Speaker 2: created well over one expected goal two clear cut chances

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Speaker 2: scored them both since Conte has arrived two point one

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Speaker 2: seven expected goals per ninety two point four to eight

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Speaker 2: expected goals per ninety last five matches.

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Speaker 3: Now there's a couple of caveats with that one. They

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Speaker 3: got to play five.

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Speaker 2: With their six matches at home, they got into a

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Speaker 2: weird rut here where almost every game on the road

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Speaker 2: happened to get canceled because of COVID or weather. When

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Speaker 2: they went to Burnley, Leicester, Brighton, some tricky road games

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Speaker 2: all canceled. So that helps for sure, and I think

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Speaker 2: that more so helps the defense in the sense that

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Speaker 2: the one road match they played came against.

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Speaker 3: Norwich and they struggled.

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Speaker 2: So when you look at the fact they got to

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Speaker 2: play all these matches at home, certainly helps did allow

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Speaker 2: unexpected goal in that match. The talent for Spurs is

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Speaker 2: way too good in attack to be what it was

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Speaker 2: under Nuno, and now they're starting to look more like

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Speaker 2: the team that we thought they could be at the

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Speaker 2: beginning of the season consistently getting one and a half

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Speaker 2: plus expected goals per ninety. With all that being said,

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Speaker 2: we look on the other side of the of the ball.

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Speaker 2: Here Saints should be playing more high scoring games. They

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Speaker 2: did not look great today. I know they cashed plus

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Speaker 2: three hundred for me the money line dog and got

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Speaker 2: the pretty even game overall, which on the road against

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Speaker 2: west Ham is a good result for sure and a

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Speaker 2: good win, but didn't really have the control of the

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Speaker 2: game that I thought they might be able to get

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Speaker 2: playing against a pretty not great west Ham team in

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Speaker 2: the sense that they held the lead but really couldn't

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Speaker 2: control the game prime opportunity for some kine attacking regression

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Speaker 2: here and another thing. Spurs were also able to coast

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Speaker 2: in the second half, so I'm less worried about fatigue

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Speaker 2: for them overall.

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Speaker 3: Here, all that points me towards the over.

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Speaker 2: I think we have an improving Spurs attack, a defense

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Speaker 2: that has not been tested, especially away from home. If

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Speaker 2: you figure that, you know Spurs are putting up two

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Speaker 2: goals a game here. I do think Saints will get

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Speaker 2: on the board. I'm surprised that this total is as

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Speaker 2: low as it is at.

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Speaker 3: Two and a half. My number makes it two point seven.

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Speaker 3: I like the over two and a half minus one five.

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Speaker 4: I like Tott for a lot of the reasons you're saying,

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Speaker 4: Like Spurs. The Saints defense has been pretty leaky all season.

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Speaker 4: They're eleventh in non penalty expectacles but eighteenth and big

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Speaker 4: chances allowed. I think Spurs will be able to exploit

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Speaker 4: that with an attack that is singing a pretty good

100
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Speaker 4: song right now. Like Harry Kane, he's making the ball

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Speaker 4: talk Son, he looks good. Lucas Moore great game today too.

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Speaker 4: So I think if this team is going to be

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Speaker 4: threatening and going forward, they do have the defensive solidity

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Speaker 4: to hold the lead. And I think a three to

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Speaker 4: one score is not out of the question here for Tottenham.

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Speaker 4: And like I said, the Saints defense, they are susceptible

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Speaker 4: to big time lapses. You know, I'm gonna buy high here.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna buy high on Conte Spurs and hope that

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Speaker 4: getting a plus money is a little bit of a

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Speaker 4: gift and before they really do start to look like

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Speaker 4: a legitimate, you know, with a big enough sample size

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Speaker 4: threat to the top four. So I'll take the decent

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Speaker 4: price as is, even on the road buying high on

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Speaker 4: Anthony Spurs BJ I think you're going the other way here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So if you want to play Tottenham player right

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Speaker 1: now as you're hearing this, because I have a pretty

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Speaker 1: good inkling that this number is kind of get steamed

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Speaker 1: pretty hard. After watching what Tonham has done the last

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Speaker 1: few matches. I agree with everything Anthony said. They look fantastic,

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Speaker 1: they look great. I mean, what else do you want

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Speaker 1: me to say? What I will say though, is they

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Speaker 1: have under no no, they were pretty bad on the roads,

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Speaker 1: you know, they especially offensive. They only created five point

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Speaker 1: seven expected all six matches. Now, we've only played one

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Speaker 1: road match under Conte and that was against Everton, so

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Speaker 1: you know, not much data to go off of there.

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Speaker 1: But Tottenham was pretty bad against pressure under new and

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Speaker 1: there's still somewhat kind of struggling against teams that, you know,

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Speaker 1: especially against Liverpool when they put up a forty six

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Speaker 1: percent pressure success rate. Southampton's gonna press them and press

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Speaker 1: them all match long. Now, you know, they did just

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Speaker 1: play Liverpool and Crystal Palace, two teams that press a lot,

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Speaker 1: and they had no trouble creating chances, So you know,

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Speaker 1: you can throw it out the window. But you keep

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Speaker 1: allowing high pressure success rates to opposing defenses, you know

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Speaker 1: eventually somebody's gonna hurt you. So you know, we'll see

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Speaker 1: if Southampton's press is effective and be able to get

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Speaker 1: the ball and you know, get the ball moving forward.

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Speaker 1: Southampton is much better at home than they are the road.

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Speaker 1: Plus two point eight expect a gold to frontchill at

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Speaker 1: home versus a minus four expect to go to front

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Speaker 1: on the road, So this is a not I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: say this is a perfect opportunity to sell high on Spurs,

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Speaker 1: but it is a decent opportunity for on a Southampton

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Speaker 1: team that has been playing pretty well as of late.

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Speaker 1: So what I would say is, if you're gonna bet Southampton,

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Speaker 1: I would wait right up until match time because I

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Speaker 1: have a bad feeling that you know, Spurs is gonna

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Speaker 1: get steamed. So I'll take Southampton plus half a goal,

150
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Speaker 1: but I do need plus money or better to get there.

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Speaker 1: They are currently minus one thirty on the plus half

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Speaker 1: a goal line, but I do think there is a

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Speaker 1: good chance that we could get to plus money by

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Speaker 1: match time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Spurs have been steamed in almost every match since

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Speaker 2: Kante took over the market really has liked them. The

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Speaker 2: line did take some money already, so they were around

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Speaker 2: plus one thirty and on the look ahead number they're

159
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Speaker 2: down to you know, plus one ten one fifteen now,

160
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Speaker 2: so there are some signs that you know, there's.

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Speaker 3: Going to be some more market movement towards Spurs we

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Speaker 3: get closer.

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Speaker 2: Also, Tottenham is relatively healthy right now, only Romero is out.

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Speaker 2: But again I mentioned this, and it's just the defense

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Speaker 2: Spurs are still conceding. In the five matches that Kante

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Speaker 2: has managed, they're still conceding about one goal per ninety

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Speaker 2: two point ninety six expected goals allowed per ninety and

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Speaker 2: they've only conceded three goals in six matches. So the

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Speaker 2: suggestion is that you know, they're probably going to concede

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Speaker 2: some goals here going forward. But I do think that

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Speaker 2: you're getting a really good it's Tottenham attack that still

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Speaker 2: isn't quite appreciated, and Caine continues to finish under his

173
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Speaker 2: expected goals and he's never done that in his entire career,

174
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Speaker 2: you know, since he joined Tottenham, so I think it's

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Speaker 2: a pretty good bet that he's going to regress back positively.

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Speaker 3: And the Spurs attack could you know, have a big

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Speaker 3: number coming at some point in one of these games.

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Speaker 4: And who better to do it against the team that's

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Speaker 4: allowed fourteen goals in their last six matches, and that

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Speaker 4: would be Southampton. Let's move on another ten am kickoff

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Speaker 4: on Tuesday morning. Another team that is susceptible to defensive

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Speaker 4: laps is that's Watford their plus two seventy hosting the

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Speaker 4: wobbling west Ham United irons their plus one ten. The

184
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Speaker 4: draws plus two fifty five. We've previewed every Watford game,

185
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Speaker 4: then they end up getting canceled, so it just bears

186
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Speaker 4: repeating Botford nineteen expected goals allowed in Claudio Ranieri's nine

187
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Speaker 4: games in charge, that's two point one seven per match.

188
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Speaker 4: Thereabout no clean sheets this season for Watford yet that's

189
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Speaker 4: impressive and they haven't played since December tenth, so who

190
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Speaker 4: knows how they're going to come out. I think look

191
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Speaker 4: like west Ham is really wobbling, but I just think

192
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Speaker 4: their attack is too good against this Watford defense. I

193
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Speaker 4: think this game has goals all over it, just like

194
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Speaker 4: I thought the Southampton West Ham game did. I think

195
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Speaker 4: you're just looking at two struggling defenses and two potent

196
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Speaker 4: offenses relative to know what the defenses will be throwing

197
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Speaker 4: at them, and I think just in that kind of match,

198
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Speaker 4: west Ham should come out on top. So I kind

199
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Speaker 4: of like another short road favorite here. West Ham plus

200
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Speaker 4: one ten right now, I think that's a decent number.

201
00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,280
Speaker 4: So give me the Hammers by buying a little low

202
00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,760
Speaker 4: on a team after the three two loss to Southampton

203
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Speaker 4: BJ goalfest.

204
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I love over two and a half goals and

205
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Speaker 1: minus one fifteen. Like you mentioned, Wafford hasn't played in

206
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Speaker 1: almost a month. Nineteen expected goals allowed under Rinieri. Now,

207
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Speaker 1: granted they did play a pretty tough schedule, but bottom

208
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Speaker 1: five in every single defensive metric this season is really

209
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Speaker 1: really concerning. Going against a west Ham offense that is

210
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Speaker 1: still very still healthy and still very good. I know

211
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Speaker 1: they've kind of struggled as of late, but this is

212
00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:03,920
Speaker 1: a perfect get right opportunity for them. They're still top

213
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Speaker 1: five in every single offensive metric. They just created two

214
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Speaker 1: big scoring chances against Southampton on Sunday. The big thing

215
00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,679
Speaker 1: in this one, though, is that west Ham's defense is

216
00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,760
Speaker 1: just decimated with injuries right now, and really in key places.

217
00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:20,000
Speaker 1: You know, Kurt Zoom is still out obviously, Aaron Cresswell's

218
00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,400
Speaker 1: out obviously, Obona's out for the season, but Declan Rice

219
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Speaker 1: and now has a yellow card suspension, and he is

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Speaker 1: so crucial to protecting their back lines. So with him out,

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Speaker 1: I don't see a scenario where west Ham can, you know,

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Speaker 1: get up and try and press Watford. They almost have

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Speaker 1: to let Watford try and be their aggressors and try

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Speaker 1: to hit him on the counter. I really think this

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Speaker 1: is going to be just an absolute goalfest with how

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Speaker 1: decimated west Ham is defensively and how bad Watford has

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Speaker 1: been defensively as well. I have a little over three

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Speaker 1: goals projected, so I love over two and a half

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Speaker 1: goals in minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, west Ham overs have been pretty good in most

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Speaker 2: of their matches this year. They've had a few clunkers

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Speaker 2: on the road, but generally been pretty good at scoring goals,

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Speaker 2: and there is some regression that continues to worry me.

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Speaker 3: About this west Ham attack.

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Speaker 2: But Bja's absolutely right when he talks about the defense

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Speaker 2: in the sense that they without Rice now don't have

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Speaker 2: anyone who can effectively defend the center of the park,

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Speaker 2: who can break up play, who can win the ball.

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Speaker 2: We saw today Craig Dawson, God bless him, but the effort,

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Speaker 2: you know, getting just cooked on the ball by Brosia

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Speaker 2: and then losing his balance tripping over him outside the area,

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Speaker 2: but then couldn't regain his balance, so then he continued

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Speaker 2: to trip him in the area, giving away the penalty.

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Speaker 2: It really gets at the lack of overall quality here,

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Speaker 2: and really I thought Southampton were very good at getting

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Speaker 2: west Ham in bad situations in transition, especially once they

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Speaker 2: got the lead. Not saying Wawpard's going to get the

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Speaker 2: lead here, but I do think there's some danger against

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Speaker 2: Watford with their ability to counter attack. We'll get to

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Speaker 2: my pick on this game a little bit later in

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Speaker 2: the show, but the Hornets certainly look fresh off of you.

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Speaker 2: Twenty almost twenty is without soccer in a ripe upset

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Speaker 2: spot for me.

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Speaker 4: Moving on to Crystal Palace. Odds on minus one sixty

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Speaker 4: five at home posting nord City plus five hundred the

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Speaker 4: DRUS plus two ninety five ten am kickoff coming your

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Speaker 4: way on Tuesday morning. Wilfrid Zahab will probably be out

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Speaker 4: for this match. I'm assuming that suspension will be upheld

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Speaker 4: after his red cart in gas Spurs, but the Palace defense.

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Speaker 4: They were picked apart a little bit, but like we

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Speaker 4: were saying, they were playing a lot of this game

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Speaker 4: with ten men, I still trust them enough, and you're

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Speaker 4: they're taking on the worst attack in the Premier League.

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Speaker 4: So I don't know if Norich is going to score here.

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Speaker 4: I think there's maybe a little bit of value going

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Speaker 4: towards an under if you're maybe feeling a little frisky

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Speaker 4: at draw or you know, less frisky of both teams

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Speaker 4: to score no, because I think Palace's defense should hold

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Speaker 4: up and they're also not too much of a threat

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Speaker 4: to score themselves against any defense, including Norich. Is so

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Speaker 4: familiar right now, A little bit of a pass Anthony,

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Speaker 4: anything you see on this one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a pretty good stay away spot here for me.

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Speaker 2: I do want to talk about Norwich though. They've played

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Speaker 2: the Big Six now seven matches, so they've played everybody

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Speaker 2: once and they played Arsenal twice, the second game being today.

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Speaker 2: They have accumulated zero point zero points, zero goals. They've

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Speaker 2: allowed twenty five. That's a seven no loss to Chelsea,

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Speaker 2: a five no loss to City and Arsenal, two to

280
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Speaker 2: three no losses to Spurs and Liverpool, and two one,

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Speaker 2: no losses to Arsenal and Manchester United.

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Speaker 3: There is no bottom. There is no bottom for this team, and.

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Speaker 2: I understand they had a little bit of a boost,

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Speaker 2: but we cannot back this Norarch team against the Big

285
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Speaker 2: six anymore. Tried doing it a couple of years ago,

286
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Speaker 2: failed miserably. They just get pummeled when they go up

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Speaker 2: against these Big six sides, against these teams who have

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Speaker 2: the possession ability, and while there may be some spots

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Speaker 2: to get on them against you know, weaker opposition, even

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Speaker 2: if we show value on it, I'm just done done

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Speaker 2: with Norwich City when they play these elite ball progressing sides.

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Speaker 4: All right, I think that will be it for Pallas

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Speaker 4: and Norich. So we can move on to the three

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Speaker 4: pm pickoff on Tuesday, and that, I think you could

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Speaker 4: say is the headliner for the week. The midweek which

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Speaker 4: is Leicester City plus six to fifty hosting Liverpool odds

297
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Speaker 4: on mines two to fifty five, the draws plus four

298
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Speaker 4: to twenty five. Lester coming off a wild match against

299
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Speaker 4: Manchester City, went down four nil in the first half,

300
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Speaker 4: cut it to four to three, end up losing six

301
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Speaker 4: to three. What does that mean? I think that means

302
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Speaker 4: that you're looking at a potential by low spot here

303
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Speaker 4: on the Foxes. The number needs to tick up a

304
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Speaker 4: little bit for me to be interested, just because I

305
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Speaker 4: don't trust the defense. They just a lot six goals

306
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Speaker 4: to Manchester City. But I think, you know, it's a

307
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Speaker 4: little bit of this Liverpool team. They can score in bunches.

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Speaker 4: This game could be four nil Liverpool or you can

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Speaker 4: see Lester hanging in and making a game of it,

310
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Speaker 4: and at that point you'd much rather be holding the

311
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Speaker 4: plus six to fifty on Lester. I need a bigger

312
00:14:57,880 --> 00:14:59,960
Speaker 4: number on Leicester right now, and I hope I can

313
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Speaker 4: at it because I do actually want to bet this game.

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Speaker 4: But Anthony, you have an entry point into this into

315
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Speaker 4: this match.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I think Lester is due for some

317
00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:12,760
Speaker 2: unders like their their defense isn't as bad as it's been.

318
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Speaker 3: It can't be.

319
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Speaker 2: I know they've had a ton of issues with defensive personnel.

320
00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:21,280
Speaker 2: They've had COVID issues, they've had personnel issues. Vesta guard

321
00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:23,400
Speaker 2: has not been a good fit. Fafana has been out

322
00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:25,080
Speaker 2: most of the year, Johnny Evans has been out for

323
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 2: a while now. So yes, the defensive issues make a

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Speaker 2: lot of sense, but I can't do the under here.

325
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Speaker 3: I just can't.

326
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Speaker 2: Not yet. We're gonna find some spots to take Lester unders,

327
00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:36,920
Speaker 2: but they are not in this one against Liverpool, even

328
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Speaker 2: at home.

329
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Speaker 3: But I do think this is a very good Bilo

330
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Speaker 3: spot on the Foxes.

331
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Speaker 4: Look.

332
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Speaker 2: They had an embarrassing League Cup defeat the Liverpool last week.

333
00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:47,840
Speaker 2: Losing to Liverpool normally not an embarrassing, you know loss,

334
00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:50,960
Speaker 2: but when you go to anfield and they're playing the

335
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 2: reserves and you are up three goals to one, you're

336
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:56,840
Speaker 2: up two goals to know and you blow it. I

337
00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,120
Speaker 2: understand it's a League Cup, people don't really care about it,

338
00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,880
Speaker 2: but it's an chance for an immediate revenge Number one

339
00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:07,200
Speaker 2: number two Leicester also got embarrassed by City this morning.

340
00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 2: Give him some credit for the comeback from four goals down,

341
00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,040
Speaker 2: but anytime you can see six and lose by three

342
00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,240
Speaker 2: in the league not a good look. And so this

343
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,760
Speaker 2: it's a double bounce back from these last two performances.

344
00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:22,080
Speaker 2: But I'm actually was pretty encouraged by the actual performance.

345
00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,000
Speaker 2: And you could say, oh, they scored three goals once

346
00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,480
Speaker 2: they were down by four, but it was the most

347
00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,120
Speaker 2: shots any team has taken against City since opening day

348
00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:31,840
Speaker 2: in the league when Spurs got fourteen. With that game,

349
00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 2: Spurs were very effective on the counter. City were kind

350
00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,640
Speaker 2: of easing into the season. Well here City have been

351
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,520
Speaker 2: an absolute machine for the last month. They have not

352
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:44,520
Speaker 2: allowed any chances, any goals, any shots, any possession. Yet

353
00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:47,280
Speaker 2: Leicester was able to create more than two expected goals

354
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 2: and get three themselves, five big scoring chances, ten solid

355
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:55,400
Speaker 2: chances created in the match overall. So I'm incredibly impressed

356
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:58,720
Speaker 2: by this Leicester attack and the way it's been trending recently.

357
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,560
Speaker 2: The defense continues to be an issue on set pieces

358
00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 2: and that's a major concern here where it looks like

359
00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,280
Speaker 2: Liverpool might get its midfield in defense back from COVID.

360
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,199
Speaker 2: But even with that being said, Liverpool is two overinflated

361
00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,480
Speaker 2: here on the road. I'm going to take the Foxes

362
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,280
Speaker 2: in a huge spot at home with a chance for

363
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 2: revenge off of last week, and I think their attacks

364
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:18,600
Speaker 2: and be able to do some damage and keep this

365
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 2: game competitive.

366
00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, when I was getting set up for the Leicester

367
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,160
Speaker 4: City game today, I was like, I really hope Manchester

368
00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,399
Speaker 4: City makes it look easy against Leicester so that I

369
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:29,440
Speaker 4: could builow on them in a spot that I like

370
00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:31,920
Speaker 4: against Liverpool and the way that it went, I was

371
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,160
Speaker 4: just like, that's not how I wanted it to happen.

372
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,760
Speaker 4: You just no confidence that they'll be able to keep

373
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:42,120
Speaker 4: Liverpool out of the onion bag here and beja, that's

374
00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 4: kind of what you're thinking too, Huh.

375
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love over three and a half goals and

376
00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:48,320
Speaker 1: anything plus money here. I understand that, you know, Lester's

377
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,200
Speaker 1: not as bad as they've seen defensively, but it's pretty

378
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,480
Speaker 1: bad right now, especially without Johnny Evans and sionco for

379
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,720
Speaker 1: this match. Lester their bottom five and expected goal is

380
00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:00,840
Speaker 1: allowed along one point seven to two per mat. They're

381
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 1: allowing a ton of shots fifteen point two per ninety,

382
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,280
Speaker 1: a ton of box entries around fourteen per ninety, and

383
00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:09,800
Speaker 1: crosses into their own penalta around three per ninety, which

384
00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:12,160
Speaker 1: are all, you know, near the bottom of the Premier League.

385
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,400
Speaker 1: So going up against a Liverpool offense that's averaging two

386
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 1: point six expected goals for match number one in every

387
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:21,719
Speaker 1: single offensive category, it's just a horrific matchup. I mean,

388
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:25,560
Speaker 1: Sadio Mane Mo Sala and Diego Jota are the top

389
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,960
Speaker 1: three expected goal creators in the Premier League. Right now,

390
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,840
Speaker 1: they've combined for thirty three point four expected goals, So

391
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 1: I think Liverpool can basically pick their number here. And

392
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:37,359
Speaker 1: everything Anthey said about their offense is true. It actually

393
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,840
Speaker 1: is really good. Their fourth and non penalty expected goals

394
00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:43,200
Speaker 1: two point five expected goals against Manchester City. That's the

395
00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:46,680
Speaker 1: most of anybody in any competition this season. The most

396
00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:48,920
Speaker 1: that they've allowed before that was one point seven to

397
00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,359
Speaker 1: RB Leipsig. Going to match them meant absolutely nothing in

398
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,399
Speaker 1: the Champions League. So that's how impressive, you know, what

399
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 1: Lester did even though they were obviously you know, down

400
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,440
Speaker 1: four goals. So I think this one has the potential

401
00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:00,639
Speaker 1: to you know, essentially pop off. Often we could have,

402
00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,520
Speaker 1: you know, a six or seven goal thriller. Lester offensively

403
00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,240
Speaker 1: is much better at home than are on the road

404
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:07,640
Speaker 1: one point six' nine expected goals per match at home

405
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 1: versus only about one point two on the. Road SO

406
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 1: i love over three and a half goals anything plus.

407
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,879
Speaker 1: MONEY i have around three point seven goals projected for this.

408
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,680
Speaker 2: One, yeah we still don't know the status Of Thiago

409
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:22,360
Speaker 2: fabinho Van. Dyk if you match the timeline, up it's

410
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,159
Speaker 2: like pretty close to the fact that they may be,

411
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,199
Speaker 2: back but again we're talking very short turn around, here

412
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:29,760
Speaker 2: and we. Did we just saw that their match was

413
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:31,960
Speaker 2: just canceled On Boxing. Day now that a lot of

414
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,679
Speaker 2: that Was leads, issues not Necessarily liverpool. Issues they were

415
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 2: gonna be able to go ahead with the, match but

416
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,119
Speaker 2: we don't know the status of, them so that is

417
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,359
Speaker 2: something to watch And i'll probably end up waiting to

418
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 2: put my bet.

419
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,440
Speaker 3: In but even if they do, Play i'm going to

420
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:45,040
Speaker 3: probably end.

421
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,680
Speaker 2: Up On Leicester city plus one and a half at

422
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 2: WHAT i think is a pretty good number when minnumber

423
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 2: is closer to a goal on a, quarter SO i

424
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,280
Speaker 2: think it's a pretty good number On lester and you,

425
00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 2: know hopefully we can defend some set, pieces.

426
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:04,159
Speaker 4: Draw defend in. General, YEAH i mean for a team Like,

427
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,760
Speaker 4: lester you can survive some defensive issues if because with their,

428
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:11,160
Speaker 4: offense but not when they're this. Horrific, still it's gonna

429
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,240
Speaker 4: be definitely a bet that will take a lot of

430
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 4: willpower for me to look away from seven to one

431
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,399
Speaker 4: on a good team at home in the. Midweek all,

432
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 4: right another good team at home that is a very good.

433
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,160
Speaker 4: Team That's Chelsea their minus two to twenty five Hosting

434
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,680
Speaker 4: brighton And hoval beyond there're seven to one on the

435
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,040
Speaker 4: money line the draws plus three. Forty this is A

436
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:33,120
Speaker 4: wednesday kickoff two thirty. Pm brighton coming off a good

437
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 4: performance Against, Brentford chelsea coming off a good performance Against Aston.

438
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 4: Villa Ramulul kaku's back on the score. Sheet BUT i

439
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 4: do think The seaguals set up pretty well. Here we're

440
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 4: talking about a really strong defensive. Team their top five

441
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:50,159
Speaker 4: and non penalty expected goals, allowed big chances, allowed shots

442
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:53,639
Speaker 4: per ninety and pressure success, rate so they defend like

443
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 4: a top six. Team they don't score like. One AND

444
00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 4: i just think that there are just some teams in

445
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 4: this league right now being one of them that if

446
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 4: they get to a number this, high it's basically an

447
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:05,919
Speaker 4: auto bet no matter where they're, playing AND i Think

448
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:09,200
Speaker 4: brighton ticks that box seven to. One i'm in on The.

449
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,399
Speaker 4: Seagulls Graham, Potter seagulls hopefully to pull one over On,

450
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 4: chelsea which has been inconsistent of. Late anthony back On.

451
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 3: Brighton oh, Yeah i'm, back, BABY i am.

452
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 2: Back The seagulls are a great underdog and look we've

453
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 2: had our issues trying to back them as favorites hasn't

454
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 2: gone too well in some. Spots BUT i went back and,

455
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 2: looked and when you look at How brighton has performed

456
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 2: against some of these bigger sides in the league over

457
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 2: the last year and a half since you, know, REALLY

458
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:36,160
Speaker 2: i think The Potter revolution really. Began the first year Under,

459
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 2: potter they were establishing the possession. Structures year two they

460
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 2: took a huge. Leap year three they've regressed a little

461
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 2: bit in, attack but like you, mentioned the defense is still.

462
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 2: Excellent they have the ability to, press and they have

463
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 2: the ability to win the ball off of these top

464
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 2: sides and not be overwhelmed by their pressure because they

465
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 2: consistently have an out, ball an, outlet whether It's kokuarea Or,

466
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 2: lamptey or whether It's pasuma playing through the. Press they

467
00:21:58,160 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 2: have guys who know how to play on the ball

468
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 2: effectively and get through these presses that the big sides

469
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 2: tend to. Overwhelm opponents With brighton will not be. Overwhelmed

470
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 2: you go back and look last year these two teams played.

471
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 2: Twice opening day was the lampard, Era so not quite

472
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 2: a ton you can take from, it but very even

473
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 2: game right and unlucky to lose by. Two they played

474
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 2: in the peak peak of the tukel era When chelsea

475
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 2: was dominating everyone created er point eight expected goals allowed

476
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 2: one GAME i did in A goalis draw that was

477
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 2: very little in the, game a lot of half, chances

478
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 2: not a ton of clear. Chances so they really stymied

479
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 2: The chelsea defense well and created a little bit on the.

480
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 2: Counter And chelsea is a little bit overrated off penalty

481
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 2: luck now they've had, seven which is three more than

482
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 2: any other team in the. League they're running thirty percent

483
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 2: over their expected goals in, attack and we've seen this

484
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 2: year When brighton went and Played, liverpool got a two two,

485
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 2: draw created the second most expected goals Against, liverpool second

486
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 2: only To tottenham last. Week so pretty encouraging signs across

487
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 2: the board for This brighton team as an underdog who

488
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 2: also went to to toe With arsenal outplayed. Them that

489
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 2: results looking better and better as The jay's gunners continue to.

490
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 2: Win So i'm impressed with them as a dog and

491
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 2: catching a goal on a quarter even though they're on the.

492
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 2: ROAD i think they'll be able to keep this. Close

493
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 2: SO i already played, it put it in the. App

494
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 2: it was the first BET i put in for this

495
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 2: little slate here plus one point twenty five minus one

496
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 2: fifteen minus one TWENTY i THINK i put, in BUT

497
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:20,199
Speaker 2: i like it at both those.

498
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 4: Numbers, YEAH i think you hit it. Like this is

499
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 4: a team that profiles as a great underdog because of their.

500
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 4: Defense if you could tearn a game into a coin,

501
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 4: flip that makes you a good. Underdog and this is

502
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 4: what this team excels, at especially when they're taking on

503
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 4: a really good, Opposition like they just always seem to

504
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 4: be able to punch above their. Weight they, do like you,

505
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 4: said pretty scary laying juice with this, team but you

506
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 4: feel always feel really really good about it when you

507
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 4: get The seagulls at a big. PRICE, bj you can't

508
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 4: set this one.

509
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 1: Up, YEAH i don't know IF i. Can i'm just

510
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: hoping and waiting For chelsea to get steamed and we

511
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 1: potentially Get brighton at a better. Number you, KNOW i

512
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 1: Have chelsea projected at around minus one, ninety SO i

513
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 1: do think they are a tat. Overvalued but you, know

514
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 1: The brighton, off you, know they scored two goals today

515
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 1: would only create around zero point. Eight it was a

516
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 1: very cagy. Match once they went. Up they kind of

517
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 1: just sat back and defended the match. OUT i love you.

518
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 1: Guys you, know you guys have obviously hit the nail

519
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 1: right in the. Hat this is an elite defensive team

520
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 1: that can play with some of the bigger. SIDES i

521
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,919
Speaker 1: do probably will end up getting in on Some brighton

522
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 1: plus one at a decent you know plus. Number but

523
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 1: as of right, NOW i do think that the forum

524
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 1: That chelsea's been, in especially having a good result In lucaku,

525
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:25,199
Speaker 1: back you, KNOW i do think there's a chance when

526
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 1: we get to match time that they could get steamed

527
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 1: up a little. Bit, again it Is. Brighton you, know

528
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 1: a lot of the you, know professional betters out there

529
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 1: love to Bet, brighton and the market usually tends to

530
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 1: come back To brighton a little. Bit so we'll see

531
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 1: how this number moves in the, market But i'll probably

532
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 1: end up playing Some brighton plus. ONE i can't stay

533
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 1: away from The.

534
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 2: Seagulls, yeah they went To, Lallana McAllister And trossard and

535
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 2: that was the front three that really did well for

536
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 2: them last year With, malpey that WAS i think probably

537
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 2: their best attacking. Unit wellbeck's been in and, out but

538
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 2: they also Get presuma back for this, match which is,

539
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 2: important and it looks like they're going to Get Shane

540
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 2: duffy backed as, well so some reinforcements in the midfield

541
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 2: and in the defense that should help them Against.

542
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 3: CHELSEA a good win for The.

543
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 2: BLUES i lost fading them On, sunday but generally didn't

544
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 2: get to catch the second. Half it was very unimpressed

545
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 2: with the first half performance AND i understand that you

546
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 2: know you're Starting pool a Sick Hudson adoor in mount

547
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,880
Speaker 2: and none of them are plus shot guys as, strikers

548
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 2: so you know you're out of a deficit, there but

549
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 2: didn't think they had the kind of game control you'd.

550
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 2: Expect only took three, shots got a. Penalty there were

551
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 2: two penalties in the, end with the one in stoppage.

552
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:33,119
Speaker 2: Time so defensively a strong performance Against, villa but attack

553
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 2: wise not.

554
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 3: Impressed don't think they can get margin.

555
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:40,120
Speaker 4: Here the Team brighton disposed of today was their little

556
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 4: Brother brentford thirteen to. One on the Money line hosting

557
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 4: odds On Manchester. City they are minus three hundred to

558
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 4: win The Premier league. Title they minus five hundred to

559
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 4: win this. Game the dress plus six Hundred wednesday three

560
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 4: to fifteen pm kickoff In. London and, boy This brentford

561
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 4: defense is good AND i like backing this. Team fun

562
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 4: to root, for they're fun to, watch BUT i don't

563
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 4: know if a mid table defense is going to be

564
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 4: able to hang With Manchester, city especially with the offensive

565
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 4: firepower That brentford, possessions which isn't all that. IMPRESSIVE i

566
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 4: like the under. Here i'm going TO i Know city

567
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,159
Speaker 4: just played in a nine goal, thriller but that to

568
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,640
Speaker 4: me screamzag And i'm going to sag and back Another

569
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 4: Manchester city. Under it's at three is plus. Money it's

570
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 4: plus one hundred right, now so under, three hoping for

571
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 4: maybe a Sleepwalkye Manchester city to nil. Win BUT i

572
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 4: do think that there is a chance that this could

573
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 4: be a city wobble like we do see this from

574
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 4: time to time where they will just show like a

575
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 4: little bit of like a crack in their armor and

576
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 4: then the next game they come, out they lay an

577
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 4: egg and then what do they. Do they just revert

578
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,439
Speaker 4: back into beast. Mode so this could be a tricky

579
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 4: bit of a banana. Skin, However i'm not brave enough

580
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 4: to do. It Bj anything you.

581
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 1: Have for this. One, WELL i do have some projected

582
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 1: value in the under BUT i don't really know IF

583
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 1: i can do it for a couple of. Reasons there's number.

584
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: One you, know, Obviously Manchester city they showed some chinks

585
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 1: in the armor With lester being able to you, know

586
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 1: pour three goals in in ten. Minutes but you, know

587
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 1: this is A Manchester city team that time and time

588
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 1: again has been able to hold possession and see games

589
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 1: out and get clean. Sheets you, Know, lester like we mentioned,

590
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: previously he does have the offensive firepower to potentially go

591
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 1: do something like. That i'm not sure That brentford really.

592
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 1: Does you, Know brentford, obviously you know we've talked about

593
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 1: a link a. Lot whether they do is scoring off

594
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 1: of big. Chances Well city hardly allows any other big

595
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 1: chances other than what happened. Today brentford is one of

596
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 1: the most efficient teams off of. Corners Well city is

597
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: incredible at defending. Corners you, Know brentford is a team

598
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: that's in the bottom half of The Mere league in

599
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: terms of average. Possession they're only averaging around forty seven

600
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: percent possession in their. Matches so that just tells Me

601
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: manchester is going to dominate potentially seventy percent, possession and

602
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 1: then Will brentford be able to do anything going forward

603
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,160
Speaker 1: on the. Counter i'm not so really. Sure but again

604
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 1: we've seen it With Manchester city when they play some

605
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 1: many smaller. Sides once they score, first the opposing team

606
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 1: has to come out of their defensive. Structure they have

607
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 1: to try and come out and press, them try and

608
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 1: get forward a little, bit try to somewhat get back

609
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 1: in the, game and that's When city can just pour

610
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 1: goals and goals and goals in on. You so it

611
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 1: could be another situation where it's for nothing and a

612
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 1: half time and you're sitting there with an, underticket like

613
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 1: what DID i just? Do you? Know both teams to

614
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 1: score no is minus one seventy so that's out the.

615
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 1: Window we can't really you, know play something like, That

616
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 1: so this one is a pass for. Me do have

617
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 1: some projected value on the. Under but, again you know

618
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 1: With Waite, city once they score, first they just poured.

619
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,639
Speaker 1: On SO i can't get behind This brentford team with

620
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 1: you know how average they are at trying to control

621
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 1: possession and everything like.

622
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,400
Speaker 2: That so if you look at a ten game kind

623
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 2: of ROLLING xg For. Brentford it's a pretty clear trend.

624
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 2: Downwards first month the season they were like plus point

625
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 2: two per. Ninety then they played about even for about

626
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 2: a month last. Month so since you know there's not

627
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 2: a ton of matches because they've had a bunch, canceled

628
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 2: but you can go back to about last six, matches

629
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 2: they're now minus point three per. Ninety so there's a

630
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 2: clear trend downwards With, brentford which you'd. EXPECT i, mean

631
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 2: we did not think coming into the season that they

632
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 2: were a top six to seven. Team most of US

633
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 2: i think had them staying up, comfortably BUT i don't

634
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 2: think we had them in the top. Half so playing

635
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 2: more like that, team SO i think that has to

636
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 2: be factored in. Here my numbers show a little bit

637
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 2: of value On brentford and the under as. Well but

638
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 2: LIKE bj just, said happy to pass here on This city,

639
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 2: game maybe a live under BECAUSE i agree WITH bja

640
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 2: in the sense that If city gets up an early

641
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:16,479
Speaker 2: goal or, TWO i think they're going to look for more.

642
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 2: CONTROL i think that will not be happy conceding three To,

643
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 2: lester AND i think they'll they'll make a more renewed

644
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 2: focus on that in this. Match SO i think that's

645
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 2: a potential look for the live under but otherwise not

646
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,240
Speaker 2: a ton of interest in playing this match either.

647
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 4: Way wednesday should be, fun right because you've Got, Liverpool

648
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 4: chelsea And city all playing at a stagger, time so

649
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 4: knowing What liverpool did the day, before it'll be a

650
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 4: fun block of time for the title. Race but we

651
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 4: can now move on To thursday to Watch Oh, boy

652
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 4: The Rappa Benitez. Derby one of the two It's everton

653
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 4: minus one ten Hosting Newcastle, united who are plus three.

654
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 4: Thirty the draw is plus two to fifty Five thursday

655
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 4: two thirty pm. Kickoff everton they HAD i think twelve

656
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 4: players total available for their match Against burnley was the,

657
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 4: rumor including goalkeepers by the, way so we could have

658
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 4: been looking at a situation where we had some goalkeepers

659
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 4: playing in outfield. Positions whether that was hyperbole or, NOT

660
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 4: i don't. Know but if this lineup shakes out relatively

661
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 4: okay For everton at home against The newcastle, defense that

662
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 4: leads scoring chances for fun against An everton. Attack, yes

663
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 4: this team has a list a litany of, issues but

664
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 4: creating scoring chances really isn't one of. Them there was

665
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 4: more time For Dominic Calvert lewin to get. HEALTHY i

666
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 4: think that they should be able to get by This newcastle,

667
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 4: team even with a skeleton proof. Squad so like It's

668
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 4: everden or nothing, here the precious is too good to look.

669
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 4: AWAY i actually think that there's some value on backing

670
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 4: an all. LINE i Like mints one at plus one

671
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 4: ninety because If everydon does, win it will likely be

672
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 4: by multiple goals because This newcastle defense.

673
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 3: Is just so.

674
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 4: Porous this is typically though it's been a troubling spot

675
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 4: for The toaffees taking On. Newcastle they've had. Trouble Callum

676
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 4: wilson scores Against everton every time he steps on the

677
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 4: field against, them so it's a scary. One it's not

678
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 4: going to be a fun. One BUT i do Like

679
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 4: evertten minus one nearly two to. ONE i think that

680
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 4: number is too good to pass up against a defense

681
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 4: that just is. ABYSMAL BJ i don't want you to do,

682
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 4: it BUT i think you're going.

683
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: To, Yeah i'm coming along with. YOU i, mean the

684
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 1: rumor Was Jordan pickford was gonna have to play midfield

685
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 1: if they were going to play this, match WHICH i

686
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: would have loved to. See but either, WAY i think

687
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 1: it was a real benefit For everton getting that match.

688
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: Postponing it's barely allows some guys to get. Healthy it

689
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 1: looks like at the time of taking this now it's

690
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 1: a good. Change but That Dominie Calvern luhn is healthy

691
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 1: enough to play in this, match which is obviously huge

692
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,479
Speaker 1: for The toffees because dating back to last season when

693
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 1: he's in the, Lineup everton average is one point three

694
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 1: to four expectacles from match with him not in the

695
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 1: lineup only around one point zero, seven so he's a

696
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 1: pretty significant boost for their. Offense it looks like De

697
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 1: Mury gray has been upgrade. Questionable if he's playing then

698
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 1: that's even better because He's everton's leading goals score right,

699
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 1: now so you know with five goals And Dominic Calvert

700
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 1: lowan just needs two to time to tell you Where

701
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: everton's kind of at this. Season but and that's besides the,

702
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: point but Really, everton the main times that they struggle

703
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 1: are against some of these bigger, sides sides who will

704
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 1: press them at a high rate and press them. Successfully,

705
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 1: Well newcastle's not going to do that because they're dead

706
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 1: last and passes bir defensive.

707
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 3: Actions SO i.

708
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 1: Think everton should be able to create enough going Forward

709
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 1: newcastle under, anyhow and his seven matches in charge five

710
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 1: point five expected goals for twelve point nine expectables Against

711
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 1: now granted he did have to Face, Arsenal Man city

712
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 1: And liverpool in that, run but he Switched newcastle to

713
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 1: a four to four to, two which is what he

714
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 1: typically played out in his last two years At, bournemouth

715
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 1: and he hasn't been very successful transitioning them to. That

716
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 1: even though they did play out of a similar type,

717
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 1: structure whether it be like five to three to two

718
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 1: or a four or five to. One you know something's you,

719
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 1: know similar to that type of, structure it hasn't been

720
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 1: hasn't really worked one point eight two expected goals at

721
00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 1: allowed per ninety minutes when playing out of the four

722
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 1: to four to Two. Everton, defensively, obviously their biggest weakness

723
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 1: is allowing big scoring. Chances they've conceded thirty three in

724
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,480
Speaker 1: seventeen matches this, season But newcastle has created the third

725
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 1: fewest big scoring chances in their nineteenth and non penalty

726
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 1: expected goals Four AND i Think John Joe shelvy is,

727
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 1: Questionable so if he's, out there's gonna be no screamers

728
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 1: coming At Jordan. Pickford newcastle horrific on the road minus

729
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 1: nine point two expected goal defferential only created six point

730
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 1: three expected goals in nine road. MATCHES i Have overton

731
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: projected at minus one forty. Three now that's before all the.

732
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 1: Injuries But Dominic calvert went. Back that is a boost The.

733
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 1: Toffees So i'm with, You. MICHAEL i Like everton on

734
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:36,719
Speaker 1: the money line at minus one.

735
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 2: Ten it actually behooves both teams to not play this,

736
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 2: game Right like you, know if Your, newcastle you want

737
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 2: as many matches as possible after The january. Window so you're, like,

738
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 2: yeah we got no, players we GOT, covid we got.

739
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 2: Injury we can't we can't. Play And, everton with all

740
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 2: the injuries they, have it's probably in the same boat

741
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 2: where they're, Thinking, hey why are we rushing to play these?

742
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 3: Games you know we got to get. Healthy we only

743
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 3: have twelve. Players they may get some guys.

744
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 2: Back until we know who's playing here For, EVERTON i

745
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 2: can't lay it, yet but at the current, NUMBER i

746
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,880
Speaker 2: certainly if you know half of their regular good players

747
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 2: are IN i feel comfortable laying it With everton here as.

748
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:13,840
Speaker 3: WELL bj mentioned It.

749
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 2: Newcastle they have no ball winners in the team, whatsoever

750
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 2: and that's a big issue against any. Team but it's

751
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 2: really just a big issue going on the road against

752
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 2: An everton team who doesn't deal with pressure well and

753
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 2: isn't going to be pressed. Here SO i think it's

754
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 2: a Good everton. Spot could also be a good overspot as.

755
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 2: Well but right, now you, know we're taping this On sunday.

756
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 2: Night the game is not Until. Thursday we've got some.

757
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 2: Time let's see who's coming back For. Everton keep an

758
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 2: eye on the. Market i'll put a bet in the

759
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 2: app IF, i you, know if we're feeling. Good but

760
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 2: as of right Now i'm sitting on this.

761
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 4: One the last match on the docket Is Manchester united

762
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,399
Speaker 4: their minus two eighty five Hosting, burnley making the short

763
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 4: trip From turfmore To Old trafford at plus eight fifty

764
00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 4: on the money, line that dress plus four to twenty

765
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 4: five three fifteen pm kickoff On. Thursday Man both of

766
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 4: these teams have been on a milk carton. Lately burnley

767
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 4: has a play Since december. Twelfth Manchester united hasn't play

768
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,839
Speaker 4: Since december, eleventh so who, knows you know what kind

769
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 4: of forum they're, in what kind of fit inn this,

770
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 4: level who's going to be playing or. WHATEVER i think

771
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 4: that the best way to look at this match handicapping

772
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 4: wise would be the. Over burnley is a team that

773
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 4: they're dangerous to score at all on any and all set.

774
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 4: Pieces so if they can get a, GOAL i Think

775
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 4: Manchester united has a pretty good chance of getting two

776
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 4: or three here guess A burnley defense that has been

777
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 4: a little, leaky especially by their standards this. Season so

778
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 4: over three is plus one ten at the, MOMENT i

779
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 4: think that's. DECENT i haven't bet it yet BECAUSE i

780
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 4: will wait for some clarity on this, match BUT i

781
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 4: think it's that way is the only way to look

782
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 4: for this, One. Anthony anything you have On united And

783
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 4: burnley not.

784
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 2: PARTICULARLY i, think you, know we have to wait and

785
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 2: see what happens with Man united and how they perform

786
00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:00,320
Speaker 2: On monday Against. Newcastle, AGAIN i would lean towards the

787
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 2: Under united has some defensive regression.

788
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 3: Coming they're going to improve.

789
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 2: Defensively they're going to continue to improve defensively as The olay,

790
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,360
Speaker 2: statistics you, know kind of move out of the market

791
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 2: power ratings of how good This united team is and

792
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 2: then you, know the market starts to adjust. DOWNWARDS i

793
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: think there's going to be some unders, coming But united

794
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 2: At burnley this would be a.

795
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 3: Much more difficult.

796
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 2: Match BUT i do Think united will have very few

797
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 2: issues here at, Home So i'm not going to lay

798
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 2: the goal goal and half that it's going to be required.

799
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 2: Here BUT i certainly don't want any part of the dog,

800
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 2: Either so it's an easy stay away from. Me and

801
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 2: that could change if this number moves a lot based

802
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 2: on How monday goes For, united but right now.

803
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 1: Past, yeah one Thing i'll mention is that obviously we

804
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 1: don't know how you, know we can just go back

805
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:49,400
Speaker 1: to the last podcast where we just keep, mentioning you,

806
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 1: know the stuff about Rang nick because they haven't played

807
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 1: since they Played NORWICH i believe two weeks. Ago they've

808
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 1: had two matches. Postponed but you, know, obviously whenever you're

809
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 1: handicapping A burnley, match you got to see how good

810
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:00,759
Speaker 1: the opponent is against The Corners chester unit out of the.

811
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,320
Speaker 1: Season not very good Against corners about four and a

812
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 1: half expected goals allouder on point one to one expected

813
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 1: goals per, corner which is not that. Great burnley is

814
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 1: relatively healthy and the same thing With Manchester. United they're

815
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 1: getting a lot of guys, back so the post moment

816
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 1: was obviously good for. Them, burnley hopefully we'll Have Maxwell

817
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,240
Speaker 1: corney to provide some pace going, forward you, know hopefully.

818
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 1: Hit you know The Manchester united back. Line burnley did

819
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:27,320
Speaker 1: go To Old trafford during The january of twenty twenty

820
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 1: so right before obviously all OF covid hit and they

821
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 1: went and won to nothing At Old. Trafford So Sean

822
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 1: dyche has done it. Before obviously that was against OL,

823
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 1: a but you know The clarits have done it, before

824
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 1: so a look at, them.

825
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 4: You, know around nine to one or.

826
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: MORE i wouldn't hate.

827
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 4: That for this. Match oh, man don't tip me with

828
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,839
Speaker 4: a good time before before you convinced me. More let's

829
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 4: move on to the, underdogs our favorite underdogs for the

830
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 4: midweek matches in The Premier. League LIKE i always, say

831
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 4: these bets are not for the fan of. Heart they

832
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 4: are underdogs for a reason and give you a reason

833
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 4: why BECAUSE i Like brighton at seven to one this

834
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 4: week as my favorite. Underdog what do you look for

835
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 4: in a big, DOG a team that can turn a

836
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 4: game into a coin flip and with this rock solid,

837
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,479
Speaker 4: defense that's exactly what you're. Getting if they could slug

838
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 4: it out With chelsea, here turn it into a rock,

839
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 4: fight drag them deep into the. Game who knows what can.

840
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 4: Happen maybe they can win this one one zero or

841
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 4: something and get out Of Stamford bridge with a surprising three.

842
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 4: Points so seven to, ONE i mean the number is

843
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 4: two good on a team that is good enough and

844
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,399
Speaker 4: has enough talent and as well structured enough that whenever

845
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 4: they reach a price like, this no matter who they're,

846
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 4: playing no matter where they're, playing are always worth a.

847
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 4: Sprinkle so give me The, Seagulls Graham, Potters brighton a Whole.

848
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,800
Speaker 4: Albion it's seven to. One that's A wednesday, KICKOFF bj

849
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 4: who's your favorite?

850
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 1: Underdog, well let's just Fade Antonio. Conte why, not let's

851
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 1: do it. Again i'll Take southampton plus two sixty five

852
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 1: at home This. Listen this isn't the best sell high

853
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 1: spot On, spurs but it's a decent. One you, know

854
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 1: they haven't played on the road since there they played

855
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 1: ever ten at the beginning of The conte. Era you, know,

856
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 1: obviously all their matches under Nun on the road haven't been,

857
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 1: great you, know five point seven expected goals in six.

858
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,439
Speaker 1: Matches southampton is a really high pressing. Team they're gonna

859
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 1: Press tottenham a. Ton, Obviously tottenham just played two high

860
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 1: pressing teams In liverpool And Crystal. Palace they create a

861
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:13,240
Speaker 1: bunch of chances against, them but did allow pretty highest

862
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 1: pressure success rates Against. Liverpool if that, continues you, know

863
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 1: eventually it's gonna catch up With. Tottenham you, know teams

864
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 1: that can just can win the ball against him in

865
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 1: the middle of the, field eventually they're gonna be able

866
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 1: to penetrate that back. Line so facing A southampton team

867
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 1: that has been playing pretty, well got a nice win

868
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 1: Against West ham on the, weekend you, KNOW i think

869
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 1: it's a decent price on The saints and it's a

870
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 1: price that's only gonna get. Better so if it's is

871
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: an underdog you really want to, PLAY i think you

872
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:36,919
Speaker 1: can probably get the north of three to one five match.

873
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 1: Times so at the time taping this, though give me

874
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: The saints plus two sixty, Five, anthony.

875
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 4: Who are you going with this?

876
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 2: Week you, know in a normal weekend we cover the

877
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 2: main five, leagues so that's about forty nine matches this.

878
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 2: Weekend we have eight to choose from or this, week

879
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 2: so it is a really tough week for underdogs to

880
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 2: really find one with. Value AND i KNOW bj didn't

881
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 2: want to Fade tottenham, again but he is doing.

882
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 3: It But i'm going to.

883
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 1: Fade Into i'm always happy to Fade toten. Them, okay

884
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 1: let's get. That let's get that. Clear, Okay i'm not

885
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 1: sitting here LIKE i don't want. To, No i'll always

886
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:07,240
Speaker 1: fade tot IF i get a chance.

887
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 2: To, well it'll BE Ti, tottenham hopefully for my over

888
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 2: two and a. Half but, Anyway deck And rice and

889
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:14,839
Speaker 2: the center backs are out For West.

890
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 3: Ham i'll fight them. Again that's.

891
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 2: FINE i mentioned this on last week's episode WHEN i faded,

892
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 2: them AND i said they've been playing like a bottom

893
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 2: seven team the last month or.

894
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 4: So.

895
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 2: Well now they're in a terrible spot going on the

896
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 2: road against team that has not played in two weeks.

897
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 2: Now that could be a negative For, watford but it

898
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 2: also could be a. Positive watford eighth and ball recoveries

899
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 2: per ninety and they're going to come probably shoot out

900
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 2: like a cannon here in a great spot against a

901
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 2: team who played like forty eight hours, beforehand so the

902
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 2: overturn here is. Huge West ham is not a very deep.

903
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 2: Team West ham also played midweek last, week so they're

904
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 2: now playing three games in seven. Days so it's not

905
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 2: a good spot for The hammers AND i think at that,

906
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 2: price given them limited, slate give Me watford at home

907
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 2: to take all three points and continue West ham's. Tailspin so,

908
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 2: yeah plus two sixties are out, THERE i.

909
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 4: Believe so that's where we, go all, right and it's

910
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 4: almost time to wrap up this, show but before we,

911
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:14,799
Speaker 4: do we will give out our Favorite Premier league BETS.

912
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 4: Bja let's start with.

913
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: You, Yeah i'll Go Watford West ham over two and

914
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 1: a half goals of minus one. Fifteen watford Under Claudio

915
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 1: rnieri has been leaking goals left and, right a little

916
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 1: over nineteen expected goals allowed in eight, matches which is

917
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: really concerning their bottom five and pretty much every single defensive.

918
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 1: Metric they also goes still without their starting, Goalkeeper Ben

919
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 1: foster and one of their starting, defenders so not a

920
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 1: great situation going upainst a West ham offense that's top

921
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 1: five and pretty much every single offensive. Category and then

922
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 1: the big thing for West ham is they're obviously very depleted,

923
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 1: defensively but their offense is healthy and they should be

924
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 1: able to create a lot of chances On watford's. Defense

925
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 1: but you, know Without, obana Without Kurt, zuma Without Aaron,

926
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 1: cresswell and now Without Declan rice who's out due to

927
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:01,919
Speaker 1: yellow cards, suspension who is essential to protecting their back,

928
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: LINE i think there's a great chance That watford can

929
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 1: get on the board. HERE i have a little over

930
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 1: three goals projected for this, one SO i love over

931
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 1: two and a half goals at minus one.

932
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 4: Fifteen all, right let's stay in that. One you just

933
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 4: detailed a lot of the issues For, watford AND i

934
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 4: think West ham in a game that could be wide

935
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:19,800
Speaker 4: open and feature a crooked, NUMBER i think West ham's,

936
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 4: talent and especially their attacking, talent should win out against

937
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:24,800
Speaker 4: a defense that ranks at or near the bottom in

938
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:28,839
Speaker 4: every defensive, metric And Claudio rinieri's revolution has not really

939
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 4: changed that for The. Hornets SO i think West ham

940
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:33,399
Speaker 4: you go Against, ANTHONY i think West ham at plus,

941
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 4: money anything plus money is a good, bet even on

942
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 4: the road against The. Hornets and, look this team hasn't

943
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:41,239
Speaker 4: played in a long, time so we don't even know

944
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 4: what kind of version Of blatford we're going to, Get

945
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 4: So i'll back The hammers as road, favorites as my

946
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 4: favorite bet in The Premier league this, Week anthony wrap it.

947
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 3: Up, yeah The.

948
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 2: Seaguals we're back on our boys from brighton The south

949
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 2: coast plus one point two five on the road Against.

950
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:02,360
Speaker 2: Chelsea chelsea running thirty percent above their expected goals numbers

951
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,800
Speaker 2: for the. SEASON i feel like a broken. RECORD i

952
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 2: feel like some Anti chelsea person, here and quite, frankly

953
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 2: we were all high on them coming into the. Year

954
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 2: they played really well at the beginning of the. Season

955
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 2: they are not playing at that level right. Now they've

956
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:16,760
Speaker 2: also gotten three more penalties than the entire league, seven

957
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 2: including two Against leeds and two against Aston villa in

958
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 2: their last Four Premier league, matches so they've been riding

959
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 2: their penalty luck a little. Bit mulukaku is, back but

960
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 2: not sure that this team is quite firing on the

961
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 2: cylinders that it was early in the. Season and now

962
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 2: you're getting A brightoned team that is an excellent underdog

963
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 2: with a top five defense by expected goals, allowed and

964
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 2: they're able to disrupt The chelsea possession and they're able

965
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 2: to play out of The chelsea.

966
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 3: Pressure they always know what to do on the. Ball

967
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:44,879
Speaker 3: they're a well drilled.

968
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 2: Side they always compete with The Big six better than

969
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 2: almost any team outside The Big. Six i'd argue them

970
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,359
Speaker 2: in probably West, ham BUT i think plus one point

971
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 2: twenty five, here even on the, road is a good

972
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 2: result AND i don't really Trust chelsea to get. Margin

973
00:43:57,600 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 2: so give me The seagulls plus one point two five

974
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 2: minus one twenty and that's where.

975
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 4: We will leave it for this episode Of, wondergod and

976
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 4: we will see you again On thursday. Morning so For

977
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:13,279
Speaker 4: Anthony dubundo AND Dj, cunningham good luck this week with

978
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 4: Your Premier league best