WEBVTT - Confessions of a Tech Entrepreneur Who Lied to Investors

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<v Speaker 1>Back in the fall of two thousand ten, Antonio Garcia

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<v Speaker 1>Martinez was sitting in an apartment in the Mission in

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<v Speaker 1>San Francisco. Antonio was co founder and CEO of a

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<v Speaker 1>brand new startup called ad Rock. It was an exciting

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<v Speaker 1>time for him. Yeah, Antonio at the time had just

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<v Speaker 1>finished his time at y Combinator, which is kind of

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<v Speaker 1>an elite startup accelerator of Silicon Valley. And at the

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<v Speaker 1>end of your time at y Combinator, you do a

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<v Speaker 1>big presentation in front of a room of entrepreneurs and

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<v Speaker 1>investors and show off in two minutes what you've made.

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<v Speaker 1>And Antonio's presentation had gone really well, and a bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of investors were interested in giving him funding. And now

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<v Speaker 1>he's sitting in the apartment of his co founder and

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<v Speaker 1>they're all drinking a couple of beers and it's it's thrilling,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're right at the precipice of all this opportunity.

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<v Speaker 1>And then they get a call from a lawyer representing

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<v Speaker 1>their company at Rock, and the news is devastating. It

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<v Speaker 1>turns out that their former employer is suing the company

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<v Speaker 1>for stealing secrets and stealing intellectual property, and it's basically

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<v Speaker 1>a death knell for ad roc because who in the

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<v Speaker 1>right mind would invest in a company that is plagued

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<v Speaker 1>by lawsuits. So things are looking pretty bad. But because

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<v Speaker 1>this is Silicon Valley where crazy dreams sometimes make it through,

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<v Speaker 1>and Antonio is a scrappy guy, he's backed into a

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<v Speaker 1>corner and he turns to his final resort, which is

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<v Speaker 1>something that was definitely dishonest, and as we'll discover later

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<v Speaker 1>in the show, of questionable legality as well. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>something that happens here in the world of startups a

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<v Speaker 1>lot more often than you think. This has been public

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<v Speaker 1>companies when we're on Wall Street, we would all have

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<v Speaker 1>gone to jail. Right. The level of sort of just

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<v Speaker 1>generalized lying, backstabbing, total conflict of interest and spilling of

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<v Speaker 1>secrets is just rife in Selicon Valley, and it's just

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the way it is. Hi, this is brad

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<v Speaker 1>Stone and this is Ellen Hewitt, and this week Undecrypted,

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<v Speaker 1>we're bringing you confessions of one startup founder who lie

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<v Speaker 1>this away and they're raising money from investors and how

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<v Speaker 1>he got away with it. But there's a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of a dirty secret to the way these young startup

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<v Speaker 1>founders work and get funded in the valley. No matter

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<v Speaker 1>how many charts and spreadsheets you see, a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>these numbers are kind of made up, and how could

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<v Speaker 1>they not be made up? And these are brand new

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<v Speaker 1>businesses creating things that have never existed before. You can't

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<v Speaker 1>count on the normal rules of commerce and decency and

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<v Speaker 1>transparency to apply here. If you're thinking about going into

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<v Speaker 1>angel investing, consider yourself warned. So let's go back to

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<v Speaker 1>this moment. In two thousand ten, Antonio was sitting in

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<v Speaker 1>front of his spreadsheet trying to get a handle on

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<v Speaker 1>what the next year or two was going to look like.

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<v Speaker 1>So he's looking at his Excel and on one side

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<v Speaker 1>he has the cash that expects to raise, as well

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<v Speaker 1>as the revenue that he expects there soon to launch

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<v Speaker 1>service to start to bring in and plout it. Against that,

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<v Speaker 1>he has all the company's costs and salaries to office rent,

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<v Speaker 1>to these very expensive fees that he was gonna have

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<v Speaker 1>to pay his lawyers to fight this lawsuit, and it

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<v Speaker 1>shows something pretty dire that the company is going to

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<v Speaker 1>run out of money in less than a year. Antonio

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<v Speaker 1>published a best selling book called Chaos Monkeys that came

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<v Speaker 1>out a few months ago, and in the book he

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<v Speaker 1>has a passage which describes what he did next, and

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<v Speaker 1>we actually had him read that to us. I didn't

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<v Speaker 1>show the projections to the boys, I my my co founders,

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<v Speaker 1>it would just depress them pointlessly. I also didn't share

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<v Speaker 1>it with investors. Ag Rock was dead on arrival if

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<v Speaker 1>this got out, so I lied. I diminished the cost

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<v Speaker 1>of the lawsuit too far below the Undertaker's projections. The

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<v Speaker 1>Undertaker is the sort of grim looking litigator that we

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<v Speaker 1>had managed to cajole into defending us. Meanwhile, moving our

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<v Speaker 1>projected launch date forward to next month to generate revenues

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<v Speaker 1>immediately and impossibility given all the changes the boys were

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<v Speaker 1>making to the product. Then I jacked up the growth

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<v Speaker 1>rate to an unconscionable amount. It was outright chicanery, cooking

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<v Speaker 1>the books in the worst form. But it's either that

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<v Speaker 1>or give up now, and surrender was unthinkable. I still

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<v Speaker 1>can't believe the investors believe my numbers, but they did.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're raising money for the sake of basically

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<v Speaker 1>continuing the company, but also defending ourselves with other people's

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<v Speaker 1>money effectively, and I love that. It's called the death clock.

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<v Speaker 1>Which I think. I mean that you called the spreadsheet

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<v Speaker 1>the death clock because it puts into perspective like what's

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<v Speaker 1>at stake, which is this or nothing? I mean, you

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<v Speaker 1>have no no choice but to try to do what

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<v Speaker 1>you could make it happen. And that's the name of

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<v Speaker 1>the startup game. Is that learning the game faster than

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<v Speaker 1>you burn money? And that is that is the day

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<v Speaker 1>I'd say in the death clock, it was literally just

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<v Speaker 1>a spreadsheet and it had all our top line items,

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<v Speaker 1>which is basically servers, rent and humans. That was it

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<v Speaker 1>um against you know, a cash pile, and we plotted

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<v Speaker 1>on a graph and I have a metaphor in there

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<v Speaker 1>that it kind of looked like one of those infographics

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<v Speaker 1>you see with any plane crash, like the planes going

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<v Speaker 1>okay and then suddenly something happens and then boom you

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<v Speaker 1>have like a smoking crater in the ground. Can you

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<v Speaker 1>think back to that time and think about what how

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<v Speaker 1>did it feel to cook the books? I mean, what

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<v Speaker 1>what was going on in your head when you when

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<v Speaker 1>you change these numbers the things you knew were untrue

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<v Speaker 1>and not even remotely possible. I mean, I think this

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<v Speaker 1>is how moral rationalizing happens. And I think it's fairly

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<v Speaker 1>common um. And I applied the same, you know, rational

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<v Speaker 1>calculus later when I was considering deceiving my co founders

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<v Speaker 1>to go to Facebook instead of Twitter. It's for the

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<v Speaker 1>greater good, right, Like everything, the world will be just

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<v Speaker 1>be better if we perpetrate this sort of not so

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<v Speaker 1>minor lie and get the company funded and continue. And

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<v Speaker 1>it turns out I was right. The investors ended up

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<v Speaker 1>making money, right. They ended up doubling their money in

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<v Speaker 1>six months. So even though investors were fed these complete

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<v Speaker 1>fabrications about the future of ad Rock, they still ended

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<v Speaker 1>up making a profit, right. And most of that is

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<v Speaker 1>things only to Twitter, which decided to buy ad Rock

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<v Speaker 1>about six months after the seed rout we're talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>If anyone was going to be upset about being lied to,

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<v Speaker 1>it would be a guy named Russ Siegelman. Russ was

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<v Speaker 1>a longtime venture capitalist at Kleiner Perkins. He was an

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<v Speaker 1>angel investor. He was really the biggest backer of ad Rock,

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<v Speaker 1>And I called him after the book came out and

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<v Speaker 1>asked him how he felt about being lied to. And

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<v Speaker 1>here's what he said, Well, I certainly don't approve of

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<v Speaker 1>submitting projections to investors or anybody that you don't believe in.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know. I mean, it's not only dishonest, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's it's just not it's it's not good business practice.

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<v Speaker 1>But to be honest with you, the reason I don't

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<v Speaker 1>react to strongly to it is because I don't believe

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<v Speaker 1>anybody can project with any level of faith, accuracy or correctness, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>your revenues when you're at the seed stage. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I frankly couldn't have even I probably would never have

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<v Speaker 1>even noticed that the growth rate was unconsfortably high quote unquote,

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<v Speaker 1>because I wouldn't have even looked at it. It's funny

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<v Speaker 1>because he asked me for that projection. Do you think

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<v Speaker 1>he just wanted to give the impression of reading it

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<v Speaker 1>or I think that the big hang up there was

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<v Speaker 1>that he no one wants to put money into a

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<v Speaker 1>sinking ship, right, And I thought of putting money into

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<v Speaker 1>a company that's fighting its way to have lawsuit. And

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<v Speaker 1>he felt he was subsidizing Fenwick because I would literally

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<v Speaker 1>take money from one rich guy and give it to

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<v Speaker 1>another rich guy called a lawyer, and we would just

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<v Speaker 1>be the middleman. He didn't want that to happen Fenwick,

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<v Speaker 1>by the way, is the law firm that Antonio hired

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<v Speaker 1>to defend him in the lawsuit. And so I could

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<v Speaker 1>only convince Rest to invest after Fenwick basically a great

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<v Speaker 1>loanus the money. And so you know it's possible that

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<v Speaker 1>it was you know, it was someone in my head

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<v Speaker 1>and he didn't even look at the projections. Maybe it's

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<v Speaker 1>interesting because he he is a savvy investor. In Krissock,

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<v Speaker 1>it was a savvy investor, and and so it wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>surprise me if for very early companies, you know, projections

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<v Speaker 1>are projections, and they don't they don't look at it,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're they're evaluating a company more on the quality

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<v Speaker 1>of the team and the quality of the idea. Right now,

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<v Speaker 1>I think they are canny investors, right And I remember

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<v Speaker 1>one investor I won't name, we immediately excluded because you

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<v Speaker 1>asked me for a yeah business plan and a cash

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<v Speaker 1>flight projection has like the first question he asked and

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<v Speaker 1>I never got it to him, and it just it

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<v Speaker 1>felt like a very j V movement. And you're absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>right there. I think at that stage what you invest

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<v Speaker 1>is in the team, not some spreadsheet. So the question

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<v Speaker 1>I think that interests us is you know how how

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<v Speaker 1>widespread then is as as you describe it, outright chicanery?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it? Is it? Is it seed stage startups? Or

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<v Speaker 1>does it expand beyond that? Could we see a late

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<v Speaker 1>stage company, uh, you know that's not yet public, that

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<v Speaker 1>has that same sense of desperation the spotlight is on them,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, resort to fudging the numbers? I think a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit harder um um. Like a piece of advice

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<v Speaker 1>I think I got from Russ actually was at the beginning,

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<v Speaker 1>it's easy to sell the dream right before you've actually launched,

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<v Speaker 1>because you can tell the story and no one cares

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<v Speaker 1>about the numbers. But after the dream has sort of launched,

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<v Speaker 1>at some point you have to provide numbers, and maybe

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<v Speaker 1>even audited numbers. And so I think if you ask me,

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<v Speaker 1>is there is it common to have outright fraud at

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<v Speaker 1>large companies just to name names, Not that I know anything,

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<v Speaker 1>but like an ubern Airbnb, I think no, there isn't

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<v Speaker 1>sort of widespread fraud. Yeah they're being Yeah, there's no

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<v Speaker 1>way you'd get away with with that. What what I

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<v Speaker 1>did at that level just absolutely I can't imagine that's

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<v Speaker 1>that would happen. The reason why this is all funny

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<v Speaker 1>money and funny numbers is because not to get too wonky,

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<v Speaker 1>the evaluations we're talking about are the theoretical valuation of

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<v Speaker 1>the company if the company were to raise another round

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<v Speaker 1>and there were these these people are buying their lending

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<v Speaker 1>you money on the terms that hey, when you actually

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<v Speaker 1>raise money, this is how much I paid per share,

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<v Speaker 1>which is less than later investors, and that's that number is.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's an input to a theoretical calculation. It sounds

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit that it has a little whiff of

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<v Speaker 1>pyramid scheme to it. No, No, it absolutely is. Yeah, No,

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<v Speaker 1>it does, it does. Just to be sure, I called

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<v Speaker 1>up an expert on startups, Rob Siegel, not to be

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<v Speaker 1>confused with Russ Siegelman, who we just talked to. Rob

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<v Speaker 1>Siegel teaches at Stanford Business School, and he said that

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<v Speaker 1>it's true that startups give investors optimistic protections all the time.

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<v Speaker 1>When an entrepreneur at the seed level walks in, every

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<v Speaker 1>sophisticated investor knows that the forecast is wrong. What you're

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<v Speaker 1>looking for is the thought logic that goes into not

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<v Speaker 1>the tops down. The market is worth six trillion dollars

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<v Speaker 1>and we're going to capture five percent of it. But

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<v Speaker 1>how many units of whatever good or service are you

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<v Speaker 1>going to sell? And how much are people going to pay?

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<v Speaker 1>And how many people are out there that might buy it?

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<v Speaker 1>And what's the logic that's gone into that forecast? Are

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<v Speaker 1>any customers using it already and are they paying a

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<v Speaker 1>company any money? The forecast, by definition are going to

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<v Speaker 1>be wrong. It's impossible to know the future exactly, especially

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<v Speaker 1>at the seed stage. So institutional investors know that when

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<v Speaker 1>something comes in, it's probably aggressive, it's probably uh, slightly overstated.

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<v Speaker 1>You hope it's not over lying, but you know, if

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<v Speaker 1>somebody's being aggressive, is their logic behind the expected ramp

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<v Speaker 1>and forecast? That's completely common and normal. But Rob said

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<v Speaker 1>that even in a world where Rosie projections are the norm,

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<v Speaker 1>he thinks Antonio crossed the line. So to Russ his

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<v Speaker 1>point that he knows that the forecast don't make sense.

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<v Speaker 1>I think all vcs and all institutional investors and all

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<v Speaker 1>sophisticated angels know that the forecast is going to be wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>The question is that they're good logic behind it. The

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<v Speaker 1>point about whether or not this is legal that's more

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<v Speaker 1>worrisome in this particular example because if an entrepreneur is

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<v Speaker 1>knowingly lying, knowing the line that revenues will not commit

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<v Speaker 1>at a certain time, knowing the line that the growth

0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:58.200
<v Speaker 1>rate is impossible as opposed to aggressive, you know, um

0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:03.520
<v Speaker 1>is purposefully cutting down the costs of the expected lawsuit

0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:06.800
<v Speaker 1>because the entrepreneur knows it's going to be much higher,

0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:10.880
<v Speaker 1>but is knowingly you know, dividing by two. That's where

0:11:10.920 --> 0:11:15.560
<v Speaker 1>you get into, you know, potential legal complications because you

0:11:15.600 --> 0:11:26.920
<v Speaker 1>are actually misleading investors. You're knowingly misleading in investors. So, Ellen,

0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:30.280
<v Speaker 1>you reviewed Chaos Monkeys for Business Week. We talked to Antonio.

0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:34.679
<v Speaker 1>Did this episode make you more cynical about Silicon Valley?

0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, I think as a startup reporter covering Silicon Valley,

0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:40.960
<v Speaker 1>I get the impression that people lied to me all

0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:43.760
<v Speaker 1>the time, but I'm never sure. So reading someone talking

0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:46.520
<v Speaker 1>so baldly about it, uh, definitely made me a little

0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:48.400
<v Speaker 1>bit more cynical about it. It It made that part of

0:11:48.440 --> 0:11:52.040
<v Speaker 1>me that thinks people aren't really honest about the month

0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:54.520
<v Speaker 1>or a month growth. That part of me is smaller now.

0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:57.400
<v Speaker 1>I guess I'm more inclined to give them the benefit

0:11:57.559 --> 0:11:59.560
<v Speaker 1>of the doubt. I mean, I guess I feel like

0:11:59.840 --> 0:12:02.440
<v Speaker 1>no one here knows what's around the corner. Everyone's just

0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:05.360
<v Speaker 1>trying to do their best impression of being confident about

0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:08.520
<v Speaker 1>all these changes, and at least the savvy investors are

0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:10.920
<v Speaker 1>going to take any projections with a grain assault. And

0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:13.480
<v Speaker 1>I feel maybe Antonio was grandstanding a little bit and

0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:16.960
<v Speaker 1>describing what was really typical uncertainty as a sort of

0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:21.000
<v Speaker 1>outright falsehood. And another wrinkle is as Silicon valiant and

0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:24.120
<v Speaker 1>startups become more popular and people see these huge gains

0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:26.120
<v Speaker 1>coming out of it, I think we're gonna see a

0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:30.559
<v Speaker 1>lot more people outside of the traditional investors. We're talking celebrities,

0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:34.000
<v Speaker 1>other people of high net worth interested in investing in

0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:38.000
<v Speaker 1>early stage startups, kind of like Antonio's. And I just

0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:41.120
<v Speaker 1>wonder if it means that we should be hoping that

0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:43.720
<v Speaker 1>they get more fair information. They don't have the same

0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:46.080
<v Speaker 1>savvy that Rusta. They haven't been doing this for thirty

0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:48.280
<v Speaker 1>That's a good point, right, do do Britney Spears and

0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:51.920
<v Speaker 1>her agent know that that? And Antonio Garcia Martinez may

0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:56.679
<v Speaker 1>be making up as numbers should probably not, maybe after

0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:59.600
<v Speaker 1>you've written this book. This is a mooch question, But

0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:04.400
<v Speaker 1>if you were to make a new startup today and

0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:05.960
<v Speaker 1>you and you ended up in a position like this again,

0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:12.200
<v Speaker 1>death clock, would you lie? Oh yeah, yeah, I think yeah, yeah,

0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:14.679
<v Speaker 1>definitely it's for the great because because when you're in

0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:16.000
<v Speaker 1>the ship, you do everything to save the ship. It

0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:19.160
<v Speaker 1>just doesn't matter. That's the way it works, right, I

0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:22.000
<v Speaker 1>mean why Combinator was still relatively new back in two

0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:23.560
<v Speaker 1>thou ten. Do you think that there are more checks

0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:27.079
<v Speaker 1>and balances that exist in those programs and other other

0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:32.760
<v Speaker 1>incubators to ensure that there's a level of honesty in

0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:36.760
<v Speaker 1>the dialogue between investors and entrepreneurs. No, No, I don't

0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:38.440
<v Speaker 1>think so. I mean the real is that it's never

0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.120
<v Speaker 1>lying right like, it's never outright fraud like Obviously I'm

0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:43.760
<v Speaker 1>a little hyperbolic in the book, right I've I've I've

0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:46.040
<v Speaker 1>personally seen very few cases of like fraud like we

0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:47.920
<v Speaker 1>claimed we had a hundred million top line. In fact

0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:50.080
<v Speaker 1>it was nothing like. I've never seen that before. But

0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.160
<v Speaker 1>you could definitely there's all sort of ways you can

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.559
<v Speaker 1>lie with statistics and with figures that would impress um,

0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.400
<v Speaker 1>that would impress and and yse startups. I think maybe

0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:01.080
<v Speaker 1>unfairly our character are in the sleeve are famous for

0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:03.240
<v Speaker 1>their up into the right graphs and which they rescuyle

0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:05.240
<v Speaker 1>the y exist always make look make it look amazing

0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:07.360
<v Speaker 1>on demo day, right, And so you know, stuff like

0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:09.000
<v Speaker 1>that I think is pretty common, and I think it's

0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:11.520
<v Speaker 1>still happened, and there us as point investors are probably

0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:13.960
<v Speaker 1>savvy to it and they know they know it. The

0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 1>better questions why do we even go through the arade? Right?

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:17.800
<v Speaker 1>But I don't know. Actually that's a good question. Well,

0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:19.440
<v Speaker 1>and so when when we saw us as answer, which

0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:22.400
<v Speaker 1>which came in um uh pretty you know, pretty soon

0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:26.200
<v Speaker 1>just before we talk to you, it made me think, um,

0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:28.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, Russ has been doing this for decades. He

0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:32.360
<v Speaker 1>knows what's up. If you continue to see I think

0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:35.480
<v Speaker 1>a trend of more people and we're talking like celebrities

0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:37.640
<v Speaker 1>or other rich people with with cash who want to

0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.720
<v Speaker 1>get in on startups and and seeing investing is very

0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:44.440
<v Speaker 1>um attractive to them. Do you think that changes the

0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:46.040
<v Speaker 1>moral calculus at all? Like is there more of a

0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:49.240
<v Speaker 1>responsibility to be up front? You'd like to think so,

0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:52.400
<v Speaker 1>but not really. It's like the battlefield and there's like

0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:54.240
<v Speaker 1>no women and children out there, right, and like if

0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:55.520
<v Speaker 1>you show up and you're you know, it's like the

0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:57.120
<v Speaker 1>old drug about like we're sitting at the poker table

0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:58.240
<v Speaker 1>and you you don't know who the sucker is. Then it's

0:14:58.280 --> 0:15:01.040
<v Speaker 1>you right then, like you know still can value still

0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:05.680
<v Speaker 1>that way? There it is, And that's it for this

0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:09.120
<v Speaker 1>week's episode of Decrypted. Thanks for listening. We're a brand

0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:11.720
<v Speaker 1>new show and we'd love your help in spreading the word.

0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:14.000
<v Speaker 1>If you have an iPhone, please subscribe to the show

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<v Speaker 1>platforms like SoundCloud, pocket Cast, and Stitcher. And tell us

0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:26.840
<v Speaker 1>what you thought of today's show. Write me on Twitter

0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:30.600
<v Speaker 1>at at Bradstone and I'm on Twitter at Ellen Hewitt.

0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 1>This episode was produced by Magnus Hendrickson and Liz Smith

0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:39.040
<v Speaker 1>and aki Ito. Aaron Black assisted with recording Alec McCabe

0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:42.120
<v Speaker 1>as head of Bloomberg Podcast. We'll see you next week.