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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest Vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan. All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go. We're throwing in job spectator.

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Speaker 2: I'm sitting it to cash.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 1: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to

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Speaker 1: make money. All right, this is the ultimate combine you

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Speaker 1: want to pull, and we are underway. Hello, everyone, Welcome

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Speaker 1: back to another NFL episode of the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs,

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Speaker 1: joining me per usual for Shawn Corner and Chris Raybondshawn

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Speaker 1: is the Action Network director of Predictive Analytics, and Chris

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Speaker 1: is a senior editor and analyst at the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: And there are two of the best fantasy football rankers

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Speaker 1: in the business, and you can follow them at the

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Speaker 1: Underscore Oddsmaker and Chris raybaon in the Action Network app

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Speaker 1: where you get real time odds and tracker bets for free. Gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure if you're aware, but on this award

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Speaker 1: winning podcast channel, we've got a lot of shows coming up.

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Speaker 1: If you like what you hear, give us that five

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Speaker 1: star rating, leave a review. We'd appreciate it. In the

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Speaker 1: next couple of weeks, we'll be announcing some exciting contest

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Speaker 1: for promos for our listeners. Pretty soon, we'll have two

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Speaker 1: fantasy football episodes per week to get you ready for

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Speaker 1: your fantasy drafts. Plus, Jason Sobol and Peter Jennings have

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Speaker 1: their PGA Tour betting shows every Tuesday Stucky in Colin.

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Speaker 1: We'll have their college football conference previews coming out soon.

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Speaker 1: We'll have episodes on NFL Futures, NBA Betting. Be sure

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Speaker 1: to keep it on the Action Network podcast for the

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Speaker 1: next few months. We have a fantastic in full slate

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Speaker 1: of episodes on tap. In this episode, we are previewing

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Speaker 1: our player projections for the AFC and Sewn is going

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Speaker 1: to set some player props. Sean, I should just say,

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Speaker 1: by the way, I took the liberty of listening back

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Speaker 1: to the shows from last year. You did forty lines

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Speaker 1: forty player props you set. I went a mediocre twenty

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Speaker 1: and twenty. The definition of mediocre there, Raymond was twenty

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Speaker 1: three and seventeen. But you set some very sharp lines.

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Speaker 1: So I mean I will be not amazed if you

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Speaker 1: set sharp lines, because that's what you do. But I

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Speaker 1: mean to do it two years in a row. That's

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Speaker 1: going to be a tall feat and I look forward

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Speaker 1: to hearing the lines that you set for us. But corner,

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Speaker 1: Raybon and I are finished with our first full round

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Speaker 1: of player projections, which we will continue to update throughout

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Speaker 1: the offseason. These projections will power our customizable fantasy football

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet, which will be available soon on the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Be sure to keep an eye out for that. Gentleman,

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Speaker 1: Let's get into the episode looking at our AFC player

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Speaker 1: projections and the first team we're gonna talk about. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna start with the AFC East and talking about the

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Speaker 1: Patriots because the biggest piece of news for football the

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Speaker 1: past couple of weeks is that Cam Newton has signed

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Speaker 1: an incentive Leyden deal with the New England Patriots. Sean,

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Speaker 1: Cam Newton, give us the prompt.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so you mentioned Raybon beat me last year on

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Speaker 4: these and I think I know why he does like

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Speaker 4: attacking the under on these season player props, which I get.

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Speaker 4: It's there's more value, there's more outs, so to speak,

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Speaker 4: to hit the under. So what I'm gonna do this

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Speaker 4: year is I'm gonna mix it up and I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: make these per game, so per start that Cam Newton

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Speaker 4: has therefore sabotaging Raybond of his strategy that worked last year.

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Speaker 4: So I'm hoping that will help. But I have Cam

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Speaker 4: Newton his passing cards per game. I have his overrunner

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Speaker 4: set at two thirty nine and a half under over.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're basically right where we were last year,

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Speaker 1: where I'm banging a whole bunch of overs and Raybond

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Speaker 1: is hitting a whole bunch of unders.

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Speaker 3: Here, well, here's here's the sneaky part with Cam Newton.

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Speaker 3: Number one, we don't know sure if he's a starter.

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Speaker 3: Number two he could just be washed.

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Speaker 2: Number three.

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Speaker 3: The Patriots supporting cast is kind of shaky. So you

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Speaker 3: could have a situation where Cam Newton uh gets in

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Speaker 3: a couple of games but doesn't finish them. You could

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Speaker 3: have a situation where he replaces Jared Stidham after stinks

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Speaker 3: it up in a couple of games, which would lower

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Speaker 3: his passing yards per game.

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Speaker 2: So that's an easy under for me.

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Speaker 4: I said passing yards per start, right, he said for games?

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Speaker 1: This is you said, Raybounds on the sharp side there,

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Speaker 1: because yeah, as he said, there could be the situations where, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, Stidham starts, Newton comes in, or new starts

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Speaker 1: and Stidham comes in. Yeah, uh, maybe Newton's used, it's

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Speaker 1: just like a specialist or something like that. But uh,

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Speaker 1: I think he's going to start in week one. I

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Speaker 1: think he's going to be the starter for the majority

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Speaker 1: of the season. Uh, And so I'm taking the.

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Speaker 2: Over there what position running situation?

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Speaker 3: That's funny wildcat cam Newton.

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Speaker 1: All right, So Sean, what are your thoughts on this

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Speaker 1: line here?

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Speaker 4: As you said, I agree with Raybond. We don't really

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Speaker 4: know how many games will start. That's kind of why

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Speaker 4: I set this line. And I do see situations where

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Speaker 4: they might use both quarterbacks draft kings. Actually they're prop

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Speaker 4: for him is twenty nine hundred and fifty yards, which

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Speaker 4: is essentially betting on how many games will start. And

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Speaker 4: we really don't know Newton's health right now, so it's

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Speaker 4: a bit tricky. But you know, I think he does

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Speaker 4: give this offense, you know, some stability or something that

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Speaker 4: we can actually envision. Whereas Stidham, I mean I was

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Speaker 4: having difficulty making projections for the Patriots this year also

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Speaker 4: because they lack many pass catchers. So I think it

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Speaker 4: just makes the Patriots a little bit easier to project

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Speaker 4: with him. So he raises the foreign ceiling of all

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Speaker 4: pass catchers, but not enough for me to like go

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Speaker 4: out and draft Mohammed Sanu or Nikhil Harry anytime soon.

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Speaker 4: But I think he's just going to make it at

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Speaker 4: least easier for us to at least anticipate what this

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Speaker 4: offense might look like. And I'm interested to see how

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Speaker 4: McDaniel's will tailor this offense around. You know, a QB

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Speaker 4: that can run like Cam so it'll be interesting to see.

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Speaker 4: I hope we get to see it.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the Bills, who this offseason

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Speaker 1: traded a first round pick for wide receiver Stefan Diggs

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Speaker 1: to get yet another weapon for developing quarterback Josh Allen. Sean,

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Speaker 1: what do you think we're gonna see out of Stephan Diggs?

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Speaker 4: So I have his receiving yards per game at sixty

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Speaker 4: seven and a half, it's gonna be Digs making Josh

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Speaker 4: Allen better as opposed to the other way around. I mean,

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Speaker 4: Josh Allen, we all know he has a strong arm,

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Speaker 4: but he only completed twenty five percent of his passes

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Speaker 4: over twenty yards, but you know, forty one percent of

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Speaker 4: him we're on target, which is actually slightly above league average.

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Speaker 5: And I think Diggs makes his.

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Speaker 4: Targets more catchable. He was able to catch seventy six

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Speaker 4: percent of his targets over twenty yards last year, and

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Speaker 4: that wasn't so much Kirk Cousins. I mean, Kirk Cousins

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Speaker 4: through forty three percent catch ball also all other past

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Speaker 4: catchers over twenty yard.

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Speaker 5: So I think.

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Speaker 4: Diggs will help josh Alln's deep accuracy, which is going

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Speaker 4: to help Josh Allen a lot. But I think we'll

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Speaker 4: see similar to what we saw from Diggs last year

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Speaker 4: as a low one wide receiver to just under seven

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Speaker 4: yards per game.

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Speaker 1: All right, well, I'm taking the under here pretty easily

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Speaker 1: taking the under. I think we would be seeing some

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Speaker 1: natural regression anyway from Stefan Diggs, who had twelve yards

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Speaker 1: per target last year, easily a career high. Before last season,

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Speaker 1: he had just seven point nine yards per target, and

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Speaker 1: he's going to a quarterback who is far less efficient

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Speaker 1: on throwing the ball. And even though the Vikings last

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Speaker 1: year were a pretty run focused team. The Bills are

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Speaker 1: still a very run focus team as well, so I

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Speaker 1: don't think we're going to see a whole bunch of

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Speaker 1: targets coming his way, so easily taking the under here,

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Speaker 1: it's a good line.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to take the under two.

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Speaker 3: I think it will be in the mid sixties, but

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Speaker 3: sixty seven and a half, so we will toward the

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Speaker 3: We're going toward the upper sixties, and just don't know

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Speaker 3: if Josh Allen's accurate enough or if the Bills throw

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Speaker 3: enough to quite get him there.

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Speaker 2: But it's a good line, right, looks like I'm rooting

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Speaker 2: for the over there.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the Jets. Who I mean,

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Speaker 1: news flash, they're still coached by Adam Gase, so who

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Speaker 1: cares about the Jets? But they did bring in running

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Speaker 1: back Frank Gore. Yes, but that's probably going to screw

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Speaker 1: up a little bit of the potential usage with Leveon Bell,

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Speaker 1: who had like an okay season last year in terms

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Speaker 1: of the yardage, but had only four touchdowns last year.

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Speaker 1: So you know, questions about how much Leveon Bell is

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Speaker 1: going to be used, and then questions about that offense,

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Speaker 1: which in turn could affect the number of touchdowns, he

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Speaker 1: has the potential to score. Sean, what are your thoughts

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Speaker 1: here with Leveon Bell.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so his his rushing touchdown projection is tricky. That's

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Speaker 4: why I wanted to set this prompt. But I mean

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Speaker 4: you mentioned it, he you called him okay. Last year,

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Speaker 4: I'd said it was really bad and don't I don't

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Speaker 4: know if it was all his fault. He only scored

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Speaker 4: three rushing touchdowns last year. His longest rushing touchdown was

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Speaker 4: two yards, which you can you can definitely argue. You know,

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Speaker 4: at this stage of his career, he's not going to

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Speaker 4: be breaking long touchdowns, which is why we're not drafting

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Speaker 4: him as an RB one anymore. But you know, the

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Speaker 4: offense should be able to set up more goal on opportunities.

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Speaker 4: And when I say more, I'm just saying, you know,

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Speaker 4: below average.

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Speaker 5: Last year. They had the fewest.

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Speaker 4: Rushing attempts inside the five yard line last year with eight,

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Speaker 4: and I understand and case is a nightmare of running

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Speaker 4: backs and fantasy players. But they're absolutely going to have

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Speaker 4: more than eight this year. And you know we saw

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Speaker 4: Leveon Bell. He saw six of those eight attempts inside

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Speaker 4: the five airlines. So I do think he is their

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Speaker 4: main goal line back. It wouldn't surprise me if Frank

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Speaker 4: Gore does still a couple of those, but I think

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Speaker 4: there is potential for Bell to get a few more

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Speaker 4: touchdowns this year on increased opportunity, and he might actually

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Speaker 4: break a touchdown longer than two yards this year. So

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Speaker 4: I have his line at five and a half rushing

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Speaker 4: touchdowns this year.

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Speaker 5: What do you guys think.

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Speaker 3: Under I got him right at five, So it's another

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Speaker 3: line that that's where I would have said it as well.

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Speaker 3: But you're not tricking me. I'm taking under your It's

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Speaker 3: the Jets. It's you know, like the Jets offense is

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Speaker 3: still I think one of the worst offenses in the league,

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Speaker 3: just because I think Sam Donald that at this point,

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Speaker 3: until he proves otherwise, it's still one of the weaker

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks in the league.

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Speaker 2: And so you also have Gore there.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's a veteran guy, so it wouldn't be

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Speaker 3: a surprise if he took a goal line carry here

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Speaker 3: or there.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, that's that's pretty much it. I think Bell

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Speaker 2: can catch him.

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Speaker 3: I have him for about two receiving touchdowns, so he'll

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Speaker 3: still score touchdowns, but rushing touchdown.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I expect about five.

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Speaker 1: I'm taking the under as well with Rayon because Rayvon

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Speaker 1: is sharp, but I have it at five point three,

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Speaker 1: so super close to where you are on this. But

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Speaker 1: I would lean towards the under because even though the

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Speaker 1: Jets one should just have some natural regression in terms

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Speaker 1: of the ability to open up holes on that offensive line,

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Speaker 1: and I mean Leveon Bell, I mean I really doubt

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Speaker 1: he's going to run for what was like three point

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Speaker 1: two yards per carry again, so there should be some

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Speaker 1: natural regression. And then they have rebuilt that offensive line

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Speaker 1: almost entirely anyway, So you do think that there's going

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Speaker 1: to be some improvement there for Le'Veon Bell, both as

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Speaker 1: a runner and then within that offense, improving as the

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Speaker 1: guy who has the opportunity to score more touchdowns. But

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Speaker 1: I still think it's going to be pretty bad offense

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Speaker 1: in general, so more than five and a half would

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Speaker 1: feel pretty big there. Let's go to the Dolphins, who

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Speaker 1: last year, entering the season, had a tank for two,

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Speaker 1: a scheme which really didn't go as planned, but you

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Speaker 1: know what it all ended up. Okay, you know the

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Speaker 1: number five pick, they got their guy quarterback to a

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Speaker 1: tongue of Iloa. The real question is is he going

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Speaker 1: to be healthy this season? How many games is he

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Speaker 1: going to start? Sean? Where are you on this?

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Speaker 5: Yeah? So this is a this is a good one.

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Speaker 5: I want to ask you guys because it's very subjective.

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Speaker 4: You know, you can look at past data and stuff,

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Speaker 4: but doesn't help this situation. So right now, I'm projecting

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Speaker 4: to start eleven and a half games, and you know,

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Speaker 4: with the pandemic and the limited offseason, I don't know

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Speaker 4: if we should start moving that down. And Fitzpatrick was

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Speaker 4: so good last year that he gives them the ability

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Speaker 4: to kind of to a set out for as long

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Speaker 4: as they need. So I'm just curious that if you

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Speaker 4: guys think he'll go over under eleven and a half

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Speaker 4: games start this year, I'll go under.

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Speaker 3: And I thought I was gonna go over on this one.

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Speaker 3: I thought you were gonna set it more around like

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Speaker 3: nine and a half. I know the median for guys

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Speaker 3: in that quarterbacks in that range is I believe it's

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Speaker 3: around Tennish tennis games started in their rookie years, and

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Speaker 3: I don't think he'll start Week one, but I do

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Speaker 3: think that he'll play like some people don't think he'll

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Speaker 3: play at all.

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Speaker 2: I think he'll get on the field.

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Speaker 3: I would project at about fifty to fifty right now,

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Speaker 3: but I didn't expect you to go that high.

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Speaker 2: So again I thought I thought about floating ten and

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Speaker 2: a half.

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Speaker 1: But Sean easily, I'm taking the under. This is an

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Speaker 1: egregious I think you should have set this at like

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Speaker 1: three and a half. I mean, I know I'm being

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Speaker 1: ridiculous and saying that, but what incentive did the Dolphins

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Speaker 1: have to start to in any game this year? The

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Speaker 1: worst case scenario, they start him and he gets injured,

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Speaker 1: and then fans just nail them with this idea of

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Speaker 1: like we're planning on tanking once again this year. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: why did you start him when he wasn't fully healthy?

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Speaker 1: Even if doctor say he's fully healthy, if Tua suffers

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Speaker 1: an injury, everyone on that team is just going to

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Speaker 1: get dragged for it. And here's another thing. I think

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Speaker 1: Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably good enough to keep the job,

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Speaker 1: and he has his guy Chan Gaily as the offensive

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Speaker 1: coordinator there. Gaily and Ryan Fitzpatrick have like this mine

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Speaker 1: meld that is actually better than most head coach coordinator

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Speaker 1: quarterback combinations. In the league, like Fitzpatrick knows this offense

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Speaker 1: really well with two different teams. He's been the guy

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Speaker 1: who's run this offense for five years. So I think

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Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick will do well enough within this offense and the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins will do well enough in general for Fitzpatrick to

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Speaker 1: just continue starting games because they'll be competitive enough. And

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Speaker 1: so I think it will be more like Fitzpatrick starting

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Speaker 1: twelve to thirteen games and Tua coming in at the

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Speaker 1: end of the season. It's like it's all out of it.

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Speaker 3: Yes, that projection is eight. It's eight guys, I don't know.

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Speaker 5: I know you're a projection.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, But I will say for selfish reasons, I like

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Speaker 4: these props because I use them to update my projections

296
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Speaker 4: and make them sharper. So this is something I was

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Speaker 4: unsure about. I don't really care as much about Freeman

298
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Speaker 4: a year from now mentioning Raybon going twenty three and seventeen.

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Speaker 4: I want to make my projections better. So I agree,

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Speaker 4: I'm going to lower this a ton after the Pod

301
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Speaker 4: and Freeman. You made a good point when you're talking

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Speaker 4: about fans and whatnot. I don't think there's gonna be

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Speaker 4: any fans this year, so you're not gonna have fans

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Speaker 4: cheering for them to put in the back the first

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Speaker 4: round pick. And the fans love watching Fitzpatrick. He's an

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00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,880
Speaker 4: enjoyable quarterback to watch if you're Dolphins fan. So I

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Speaker 4: agree with everything you guys said. I'll probably lower it

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Speaker 4: too closer to Raybun's perfect projection of eight, just because

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Speaker 4: it's something I've been so unsure of and just given

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Speaker 4: all the factors, we just have to keep lowering it.

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Speaker 5: So I'm with you guys.

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Speaker 4: I'm happy to give up the under to you guys

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Speaker 4: to just make my projection that much better.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to the AFC North and we got to

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Speaker 1: start with the Ravens, where the story last year was

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Speaker 1: clearly Lamar Jackson, who came from nowhere to win the MVP,

317
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Speaker 1: not just because of the legs, I mean, his running

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Speaker 1: ability is legendary, but also because even though he wasn't

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Speaker 1: throwing the ball that much, he was just throwing touchdowns

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Speaker 1: seemingly every time he dropped back. So the question is

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Speaker 1: not is he going to regress in the touchdown department?

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Speaker 1: But how much is he going to regress? Sean, where

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Speaker 1: are you on this?

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Speaker 4: So this time I'll just get my number and I'll

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Speaker 4: explain after you guys make your picks. I think that'll

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Speaker 4: be better. But I have it at twenty six and

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Speaker 4: a half, which is right in line with the books

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Speaker 4: like DraftKings AND's whatnot. I think this is very tricky

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Speaker 4: number to project, but I think twenty six and a

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Speaker 4: half is a good line here.

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Speaker 2: I am going over I have.

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Speaker 3: I actually have him a little closer to twenty eight.

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Speaker 3: I think that he's going to for sure regress in

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Speaker 3: his touchdown rate, but I think he's going to throw

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Speaker 3: substantially more. When a quarterback like Lamar Jackson regresses, there

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00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,320
Speaker 3: will also be some upward regression because the Baltimore team

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00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:13,240
Speaker 3: as a whole will regress. They were so good last

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Speaker 3: year that Jackson was leaving games early. You know, they

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00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,760
Speaker 3: were blowing people out. So this year I think it'll

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Speaker 3: you know, they'll have to throw a little bit more.

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Speaker 3: I think the yardage goes up, the touchdowns go down,

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Speaker 3: but I still think he'll be among the league leaders.

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Speaker 3: And you know, they got Seth Roberts out of there,

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Speaker 3: so you know, probably addition by subtraction, Mark Andrews probably

345
00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 3: plays more downs this year. He only ran a route

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Speaker 3: and about you know, with over half the passing plays

347
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Speaker 3: last year. So there's a lot of upside for Lamar

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Speaker 3: Jackson to continue to grow as a passer, even if

349
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Speaker 3: the touchdowns aren't quite at you know, the gaudy level

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Speaker 3: they were a year ago.

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Speaker 1: I'm with Raymon there, I'm taking the over, and I

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Speaker 1: actually have this projected higher. I have him for around

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Speaker 1: thirty touchdowns.

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Speaker 5: JK.

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00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,480
Speaker 1: Dobbins is coming in as someone who I think is

356
00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:00,600
Speaker 1: a better pass catcher out of the field than what

357
00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,840
Speaker 1: they've had there. Miles Boykin should be seeing more work,

358
00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,679
Speaker 1: As Raybond said, we should see Mark Andrews on the

359
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,960
Speaker 1: field more often. They drafted Devin du Vernet speedster out

360
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Speaker 1: of ut I think things are set up well where

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Speaker 1: even though, of course, on a per pass basis, there's

362
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Speaker 1: going to be regression for Lamar Jackson. In totality, I

363
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,439
Speaker 1: think he takes a step forward as a passer this

364
00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:26,560
Speaker 1: year and is actually, you know, potentially a better, you know,

365
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:31,119
Speaker 1: real life quarterback, which is almost frightening to think of

366
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Speaker 1: because he was outlandishly good last year. But I'm taking

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Speaker 1: the over on the number of touchdowns.

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Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, I think I'm wordered that you guys are

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Speaker 4: both on me over here, Like Raybond said, you know,

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00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:45,160
Speaker 4: they played from ahead most of last year. They according

371
00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:47,800
Speaker 4: to Sports Info Solutions, they had more than a touchdown

372
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,240
Speaker 4: lead thirty seven point six percent of the time, which

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Speaker 4: is by far the highest rate in the NFL. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: they're still going to be a really good team, but

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Speaker 4: that that should regress and he should throw more. Do

376
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Speaker 4: you guys think that they might land and Antonio Brown? Like,

377
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:03,880
Speaker 4: how much would you boost his touchdowns if that were

378
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 4: going to happen.

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00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,560
Speaker 1: Well, you guys know the vast respect I have for

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00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown on this podcast, So i'd have to bump

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00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:12,600
Speaker 1: that up, like another ten touchdowns or.

382
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Speaker 5: Something like that.

383
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,199
Speaker 1: I don't know, I mean two one. I mean, I

384
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,360
Speaker 1: don't know if I would actually even adjust it at all.

385
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 1: I kind of don't know if I would, but it

386
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,200
Speaker 1: would be actually rather minimal.

387
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gonna be hard for one one guy, especially

388
00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:28,840
Speaker 3: a guy that could you could sign.

389
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:30,360
Speaker 2: Him and he could be there one game and then

390
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:31,120
Speaker 2: leave again.

391
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 3: So it's hard to He's already gonna be what you know,

392
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 3: one fifth at most of the target. So yeah, it's

393
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,639
Speaker 3: tough to make a major boost. But like on a

394
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:44,480
Speaker 3: per week basis, maybe because is Antonio Brown better than

395
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 3: like Miles Boykin. Probably so, But again I think the

396
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:53,280
Speaker 3: important thing was disposing of Seth Roberts.

397
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Speaker 1: Wow, the Seth Roberts antagonism is palpable. All right, Let's

398
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:03,680
Speaker 1: talk about the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger first year without Antonio Brown,

399
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 1: Juju Smith Schuster first year without Antonio Brown. You think

400
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,159
Speaker 1: there might be the possibility for a great connection between

401
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 1: those two, and then Ben Roethlisberger gets injured the second

402
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 1: week of the season, Juju suffers an injury, and his

403
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 1: third season is something pretty close to a catastrophe. The

404
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,640
Speaker 1: question are we going to see a big rebound from

405
00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 1: Juju this year? Sean? Where are you?

406
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 4: I absolutely think we are, and I have his receiving yards.

407
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:36,680
Speaker 4: So this is per game at seventy three and a half.

408
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 3: I'm going under. And it's not that I don't think

409
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 3: Juju will bounce back. It's that I think Pittsburgh's defense

410
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,680
Speaker 3: may be the best defense in the league. And throughout

411
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:51,359
Speaker 3: the years, Pittsburgh's defense has been solid to bad, and

412
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,760
Speaker 3: Big Ben has put up some big numbers. But I

413
00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 3: don't know if so necessarily have to air it out

414
00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 3: to that extent, So I have him a little bit

415
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,640
Speaker 3: under that, but I do think he generally bounces back.

416
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,760
Speaker 1: I mean, I have the over, which scares me because

417
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 1: I was wildly optimistic. It turns out on Juju last

418
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 1: year and what he would be able to do. But

419
00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 1: I still think even though James Washington should probably progress

420
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 1: Deontay Johnsons entering his second year, the draft to Chase

421
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,679
Speaker 1: Claypole Eric Ebron will probably be an improvement on what

422
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 1: they had last year at the tight end position. Even

423
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 1: with all that, I still think Juju is going to

424
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 1: have a lot of targets coming his way because I

425
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:35,119
Speaker 1: do think that this team will continue to pass pretty

426
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 1: heavily with Roethlisberger back back hunder center. So I'm going

427
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,399
Speaker 1: to take the over here. I have a closer to

428
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 1: seventy eight yards per game, but I don't know that

429
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 1: really might be optimistic.

430
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Speaker 4: Yeah, It's one of those things where if big Ben

431
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,360
Speaker 4: plays all sixteen games, I think he goes over this,

432
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:57,640
Speaker 4: and if big Ben plays fourteen or less, I think

433
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 4: he goes under. And that's why you know he's treas

434
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 4: a wide receiver one again, albeit a low end. But

435
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,680
Speaker 4: my biggest concern with him is that he needs Big

436
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 4: Ben to stay healthy. I mean, he's borderline unplayable with

437
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,880
Speaker 4: Mason Rudolf and Duck Hodges, whereas you know guys like well,

438
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 4: Michael Thomas obviously is a beast. He was able to

439
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 4: put up wide receiver one numbers with the backup in,

440
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 4: and Kenny Galladay was as well with Jeff Driscoll and

441
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:27,439
Speaker 4: David Blow. So I like taking a wide receiver one

442
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 4: where I'm comfortable they can at least produce if the

443
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 4: backup comes in and just Juju doesn't have that floor

444
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 4: we can lean on. So that's that's my one worry

445
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:37,880
Speaker 4: with him. But I think a Big Ben tastes healthy,

446
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 4: he'll go over this.

447
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not even one hundred percent, but that's

448
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 1: how we pronounce David Blows. It might be Blast, but

449
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 1: that's the fact that we don't know, the fact that

450
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 1: we don't know for sure is kind of indicative of

451
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 1: the quarterback situation going on there. Let's talk about the

452
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. They hired head coach Kevin Stefanski, coming over

453
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:04,199
Speaker 1: after serving as offensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings for

454
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 1: I don't know, like fifteen sixteen games something like that.

455
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,640
Speaker 1: The question are we going to see that offense take

456
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 1: on the run heavy approach that we saw with the

457
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings or are we going to see them airt

458
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 1: out a little bit? And if that happens, is Baker

459
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 1: Mayfield going to be able to connect with Odell Beckham Junior,

460
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 1: who should seemingly take a step forward in his second

461
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 1: year with the team now that he has something more

462
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,919
Speaker 1: of an established connection with Baker Mayfield. Where are you

463
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 1: on Odell Beckham Junior?

464
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you set that up really well. I

465
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,439
Speaker 4: think he personally should be much better this year. You know,

466
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 4: he's playing all of last er almost with that core injury,

467
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,679
Speaker 4: so who knows how much that was to blame, but

468
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:50,199
Speaker 4: he should be more healthy this year. But yeah, that

469
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 4: the offense in general could be more run heavy, which

470
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 4: could influence his volume. So I have him right around

471
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 4: seventy yards, So his receiving yards per game is seventy

472
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 4: and eight half. That's the over under I'm setting on him.

473
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the under here. I have this closer

474
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: to sixty eight, And really it just comes down to,

475
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:14,119
Speaker 1: even though I have a lot of respect for Odell Beckham, junior,

476
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 1: and I do think that Baker Mayfield will improve this year.

477
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 1: I expect this to be a pretty run heavy team,

478
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,719
Speaker 1: you know, and then also even let me rephrase that,

479
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 1: a running back reliant team where when they're not running

480
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:31,199
Speaker 1: the ball, they're content to have shorter passes going to

481
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt. So I think that this is going to

482
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 1: be an offense that flows through the backfield instead of

483
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 1: the perimeter.

484
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll go under two.

485
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 3: I have it in the mid sixties. I don't necessarily

486
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 3: think it's because of Hunt. I don't know if we

487
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 3: can assume he'll be used in the same manner, because

488
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 3: he could be more like a traditional backup like Alexander

489
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 3: Madison was. Remember it is a new coaching staff. But

490
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,919
Speaker 3: Odell Beckham just hasn't looked quite as explos And I

491
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 3: know he got you know, some surgery and says everything's fixed.

492
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 2: But earlier in his career.

493
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 3: He was running away from people, and then you know, wait,

494
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 3: you know, over these last couple of years, he just

495
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 3: hasn't been that same guy. So that kind of combined

496
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 3: with the what I expect to be a pretty low

497
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 3: volume offense, I expect their defense to get better. I

498
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 3: just don't know if he'll he'll have the target volume

499
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 3: to get.

500
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 4: Over yeah, And I mean it would make sense for

501
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,719
Speaker 4: them to be more conservative, just limit Mayfield's turnovers in general.

502
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 4: And their schedule is actually the second easiest, which is

503
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 4: kind of odd since you know, they have the Steelers

504
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 4: and Ravens in their division, but they're you know, outside

505
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 4: of division, schedule is very easy, so that that could

506
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 4: lend into that as well. And I'm just worried if

507
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 4: we'll have another Stefan Diggs type situation where O'Dell starts

508
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 4: voicing his frustration and being in this type of offense.

509
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 4: So that's something we have to monitor as well that

510
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 4: I'm a bit worried about when it comes to Odell.

511
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: It helps with the the Browns in terms of their

512
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 1: strength of schedule that they play against the Bengals for

513
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 1: two games, and I mean, they were easily one of

514
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 1: the worst teams in the league last year and earned

515
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,159
Speaker 1: the number one pick the old fashioned way, which they

516
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,880
Speaker 1: used on quarterback Joe Burrow. And I will be very

517
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: intrigued to see how well Burrow does in the NFL

518
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 1: this year. Obviously, his final college season last year was legendary,

519
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 1: one of the greatest passing seasons we've ever seen in

520
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 1: the college ranks. The big question how is he going

521
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 1: to How's he going to function in Zach Taylor's offense.

522
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 1: Is Zach Taylor really the coach to get the most

523
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 1: out of Joe Burrow? Sean, what do you think we're

524
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: going to see out of Burrow in year one?

525
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 5: Yeah?

526
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 4: So, I mean he has the talent and weapons to

527
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 4: do a ton of damage his rookie season. I'm a

528
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 4: bit worried with the lack of offseason that he's going

529
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 4: to hit the ground running like he would if you

530
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 4: had the full off season to work with teammates and

531
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 4: coaches closely. So I'm worried about that. But the Bengals

532
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 4: should be trailing a ton again this year, forcing the

533
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 4: past every game script, so I do think he'll He'll

534
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 4: have some massive potential. Right now, I have his passing

535
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,199
Speaker 4: yards per start. Let me bear about that. Pert start

536
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 4: at two hundred and fifty and a half. So curious

537
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 4: to hear where you guys.

538
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 2: Are on that over I'm about ten yards higher.

539
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 3: Again, it goes back to the their defense for me,

540
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 3: you know, I think that that's going to play a

541
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 3: major rolling yards aren't usually just a skill stat for

542
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 3: a quarterback. I don't think that Burrow is gonna have

543
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 3: like some crazy YPA guards for attempting your one or

544
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 3: anything like that. But I do think the Bengals will throw.

545
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,919
Speaker 3: They threw at the sixth high clip last year, and

546
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 3: that's with Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley. So Zach Sarah

547
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 3: has shown he's not really afraid to throw. So I

548
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 3: think with the number one pick, who's a lot more talented,

549
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 3: I think you let it fly because you because you

550
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 3: want to, but also because.

551
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 5: You have to.

552
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 1: I agree with Raybond entirely. I'm taking the over. I

553
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,160
Speaker 1: have it around two hundred and sixty two point five

554
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 1: yards per game, and I mean talented wide out's there.

555
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 1: Even if aj Green doesn't play the entire season, I

556
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 1: think he's going to play most of the season and

557
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,360
Speaker 1: be pretty healthy. And then Tyler Boyd T Higgins, John

558
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: ross auditate like. That's I think actually a pretty underappreciated

559
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 1: wide receiver unit. Joe Mixon and Giovanni Bernard are both

560
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: easily above average pass catching backs, and I mean the

561
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,679
Speaker 1: big thing is, I think they're going to play a

562
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 1: pretty fast paced style and throw the ball quite a bit,

563
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 1: as Raybond just said there, So I'm one hundred percent

564
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:37,880
Speaker 1: on the over here.

565
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,679
Speaker 4: It sounds to me like you guys should invest in

566
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 4: the over thirty seven hundred that's being offered at every

567
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 4: sportsbook right now.

568
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 5: It's been infested. Okay, good. This is kind of like

569
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 5: the Kyler Murray prop.

570
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 4: From last year exactly where it just seems too easy

571
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 4: and then it actually came down to the wire. But yeah,

572
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 4: I agree with you guys. I think my projection is

573
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 4: too low. Again, I use the show to kind of

574
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,239
Speaker 4: tweak my projection, so I think I'll be moving it up.

575
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,959
Speaker 5: You guys made some good points.

576
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's shift from the AFC North to

577
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: the AFC South and let's start with those Tennessee Titans.

578
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is entering his first full season as

579
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 1: the starter with the team. There are, of course questions

580
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,439
Speaker 1: as to how run heavy the team is going to be.

581
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: They have all world running back Derrick Henry. Are they

582
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 1: going to rely on him relentlessly once again? Or are

583
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: they going to throw the ball just a little bit more?

584
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 1: And then the question is a J. Brown there, I mean,

585
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 1: very impressive rookie wide receiver last year played at a

586
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 1: highly efficient level. I would assume on a per route,

587
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: a per target basis, he's going to regress. The question

588
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: is is he going to see the volume to outweigh

589
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 1: any regression he has in terms of his efficiency? Sean,

590
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 1: where are you here?

591
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, so there's obviously no way he'll be able to

592
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 4: sustain him is twenty point two yards per catch as

593
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 4: he did last year, but his underlying rates were pretty good,

594
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 4: and you know, an eighty four target samples not nothing.

595
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 4: So you know, looking at his depth of target thirteen

596
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 4: point two, I have no reason to believe that will

597
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 4: regress too much down. But his eight point nine average

598
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 4: yards per catch, that's that's yards after catch should be

599
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,479
Speaker 4: where the regression comes into play. So I have his

600
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 4: projected yards per catch dropping down to fifteen point five.

601
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 4: So where are you guys on that over under fifteen

602
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 4: point five on yards per catch?

603
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 3: Actually over I'm right around sixteen. I use yards per

604
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 3: route run and targets per route run to kind of

605
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 3: project you know, obviously apply some regression, but as you mentioned,

606
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 3: given the amount of action that Brown had last year,

607
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 3: it wasn't it wasn't insubstantially and you know, he was

608
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 3: one of the top five receivers in yards per out

609
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 3: run according to Pro Football Focus. And you know, his

610
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 3: his target rate I think should improve.

611
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 2: It was right around twenty percent last year.

612
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 3: So I think that, you know, he should be a

613
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 3: guy that still gets you know, gets targeted downfield, as

614
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 3: you mentioned, and he'll still breaks enough big plays.

615
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 2: I think to have him right around right around there

616
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 2: best to go line.

617
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 1: I'm with Raybon on this when I'm taking the over,

618
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: and I have a closer to an optimistic sixteen point

619
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 1: five yards yards per reception. But yeah, I mean, for

620
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 1: all the reasons that Raybon said, and you know, just

621
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 1: kind of more big picture since I just want to

622
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: be pretty polish on A. J. Brown this year. He

623
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 1: was a supreme talent in college, underappreciated when he entered

624
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 1: the league because of the team that he was on.

625
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, I think he's a real legit playmaker,

626
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: and you know, I don't want to put too much

627
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: into what we saw last year, but I think that

628
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,479
Speaker 1: is the type of player that he is. He's a

629
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 1: big playmaker. So I'm taking the over.

630
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 4: I will say that's the only line I'm not gonna

631
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 4: move because you guys both hammering the over. I'm gonna

632
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 4: stick with the fifteen point five, but I agree.

633
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 5: I think he's.

634
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 4: Gonna make up for the reduction in efficiency that's inevitable

635
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 4: with more targets. I mean, he wasn't really a full

636
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 4: time player and playing with Ryan Tannehill until week six,

637
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 4: so you know he's gonna see way more targets. So

638
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 4: I think it's gonna lower his yards per catch. That's

639
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 4: why I have it down close to fifteen point five.

640
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 4: But in terms of production, he's gonna almost match last

641
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 4: year just based on sheer volume.

642
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 5: So I agree with you guys there.

643
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the Houston Texans, who, for

644
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: the first time in a while, are going to be

645
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 1: without wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who was traded to the

646
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals for running back David Johnson. Oh man, that's

647
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 1: just it's such a bad trade. But obviously this is

648
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: going to have some impact on quarterback Deshaun Watson, who

649
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 1: will no longer have his number one target to throw to.

650
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 1: The question is how big of an impact will this have? Sean?

651
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts?

652
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, so obviously losing Jondre Hopkins hurts but I mean

653
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 4: he still has a pretty good wide receiver core with

654
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 4: Will Fuller, Brandon Cooks, and Kenney Stills. Even his running

655
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 4: backs David and Duke Johnson are great pass catching backs,

656
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 4: so I mean he has the weapons to sustain you know,

657
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 4: his He's around two hundred and fifty five yards per

658
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 4: passing per game, so I think he should be able

659
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 4: to match up this year. Although with the lack of

660
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 4: an offseason, it would be nice to have you know,

661
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 4: your trusting number one like Hopkins around that you know

662
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 4: you can lean on Rathergate, so I think just it's

663
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 4: making that trade it look even worse, which is hard

664
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 4: to imagine. But right now I have Deshaun Watson his

665
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 4: passing yards per game or per start, whatever you want

666
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 4: to call it, at two hundred and fifty six and

667
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 4: a half.

668
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 3: I'm going over fun fact, DeAndre Hopkins averaged eleven point

669
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 3: two yards per catch last year seven point eight yards

670
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 3: per target, so although he was getting a ton of volume,

671
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 3: it didn't necessarily show up in in terms of the

672
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 3: yardage efficiency for for Watson, and you're replacing some of

673
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 3: those Hopkins targets with Brandon Cooks, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills,

674
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 3: Randall Cobb as well. That's the only downside, But in general,

675
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 3: you're replacing Hopkins targets with guys that can go we

676
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 3: operate even deeper down the field, so we could actually

677
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 3: see Watson's passing yards go up. And on top of that,

678
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 3: the Houston defense is not very good, and that a

679
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 3: lot of times is what decides these passing these passing

680
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 3: props and Deshaun Watson, he can get the ball off,

681
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 3: he can air it out, so they're not gonna, you know,

682
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 3: kind of play it conservative with him if they don't,

683
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 3: if they don't have to.

684
00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 2: So I like, I like the over here.

685
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 1: I agree, I'm taking the over I have it at

686
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty three ish, which you know, might

687
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: be a little bit aggressive there, but as Raybond said,

688
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,319
Speaker 1: it's still a really good wide receiver unit that they

689
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 1: have there. I think the big question is how many

690
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 1: games is Will Fuller going to play because that might

691
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 1: be what actually kind of determines this. But you know,

692
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,839
Speaker 1: if Fuller's there, you have Brandon Cooks, Kenny Still's, Radal Cobb,

693
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 1: and you know, maybe even Kiki Qud finds his way

694
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 1: back into the rotation at some point. That's a really

695
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 1: good wide receiver unit. So I'm still taking the over

696
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 1: on Deshaun Watson.

697
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was kind of hoping you guys would this

698
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 4: is like a trap line. I was hoping you guys

699
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 4: would coldly under I was wrong, So so I agree.

700
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 4: I would actually set this true line probably closer to sixty.

701
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 4: It's also funny how we don't even mention their tight ends.

702
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 4: But I mean, if they get in the David Joku sweepstakes,

703
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 4: that could be interesting.

704
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 2: That's true and Bill who knows what Bill o Right

705
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 2: will do to get.

706
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 5: Him, but.

707
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 1: Easily worth a rounder. Okay, let's talk about the Indianapolis Colts.

708
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,839
Speaker 1: Quarterback Philip Rivers has reunited with head coach Frank Reich

709
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 1: from their days together back in San Diego, and the

710
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:17,320
Speaker 1: team has drafted running back Jonathan Taylor in the second round.

711
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 1: It feels like this will probably be a pretty run

712
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:24,319
Speaker 1: heavy offense, just kind of based on the moves that

713
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 1: they have made this offseason. The question is Jonathan Taylor.

714
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 1: You know some people are thinking of him as the

715
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 1: number one pick in dynasty leagues right now. Sean Jonathan Taylor,

716
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 1: what do you think we see out of him in

717
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 1: his first year.

718
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, so this is this is a bit tricky, but

719
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 4: right now I have his over under at fifty seven

720
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 4: and a half yards per game rushing yards, and it's

721
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 4: one of those things where I think early in the season,

722
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 4: you know, I would be betting the under on that probably,

723
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 4: but you know, as we get farther into the season,

724
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 4: as he gets more acclimated to the NFL, I certainly

725
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 4: think he'll be averaging over six yards per game, depending

726
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 4: on if Marlon Mack.

727
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 5: Is healthy or not.

728
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 4: But I think the reason you draft Taylor is his

729
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 4: upside and potentially peaking in the fantasy playoffs. So this

730
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 4: number might might seem low, but it's not really factoring

731
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 4: in his upside. This is a median projection, so that's

732
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 4: why I have it at fifty seven and a half.

733
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: I'll take the over, and I wasn't actually expecting to

734
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 1: be on the over on this one because you know,

735
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 1: kind of big picture, I still think that Marlon Mack

736
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 1: is someone who's going to see more of a workload

737
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 1: than your enthusiastic fantasy football fans would want. But I

738
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 1: think that Jonathan Taylor is still going to be the

739
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:47,720
Speaker 1: guy who leads that backfield in the totality of the season,

740
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: and I think he's going to be a pretty darn

741
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 1: efficient runner given his his size, his athleticism, and the

742
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 1: fact that he has a really good offensive line to

743
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,760
Speaker 1: run behind, and I think a pretty good play caller

744
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 1: to help open up holes for him. So I'm going

745
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,439
Speaker 1: to take the over. I have this closer to sixty two.

746
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take the I'm gonna take the younger here,

747
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 3: And that's it kind of goes back to they'll probably

748
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 3: treat Max as a starter going into the year, and

749
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 3: we just don't know if at what point Tailor takes

750
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 3: over as the weed back. That number is a little

751
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 3: higher than what you usually see out of backs that

752
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 3: go in that draft range in the first year of

753
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 3: their career, and given that there is a split backfield,

754
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 3: you know, kind of situation at least for now, and

755
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 3: they also have a better quarterback. So like we think

756
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 3: they may be run heavy, and that they drafted they

757
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 3: were to be run heavy. But let's not forget that

758
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 3: last year's strategy was kind of based off the fact

759
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 3: that they had to adjust on the fly to Andrew

760
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 3: Luck's surprise retirement, whereas now they go out and get

761
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 3: Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers been a guy that he can

762
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 3: throw the ball, you know, thirty five to forty times

763
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 3: a game if you need him to. So they might

764
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 3: actually not be quite as run heavy as we think.

765
00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 3: So I think a lot of things just kind of

766
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 3: point me towards the towards under there.

767
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, it is worth noting they do have the easiest

768
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 4: schedule in the NFL, so that that could lend to

769
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 4: them being more run heavy than we even think. So

770
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 4: I think Mac and Taylor might both be viable plays

771
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 4: even when they're both healthy.

772
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 5: It might be one of those teams.

773
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,239
Speaker 4: But I agree, if they need to throw, they at

774
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 4: least have Rivers so they can be adaptive to you know,

775
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 4: the game script. But their schedule does lend to you know,

776
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:28,320
Speaker 4: their rushing attack basically dominating the offense.

777
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 1: This year, let's talk about the Jags. If you look

778
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,839
Speaker 1: at Vegas win totals, this is the team that I

779
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 1: believe has the lowest win total in the market, or

780
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,799
Speaker 1: one of the lowest win totals, and you know, kind

781
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: of not a surprise. It feels like this is a

782
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 1: team in disarray. Although you know, Gardner Minshew entering his

783
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 1: first full year as the starter. You know, maybe there's

784
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 1: something good there. Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden joins the team,

785
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 1: but of course there were rumors all off season that

786
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 1: the team wanted to trade away former number four overall

787
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: pick running back Leonard four Net. The big question is,

788
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: you know, especially for fantasy drafters, you know, where do

789
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 1: you take Fournette? What kind of workload is he going

790
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 1: to see? And man, and this is coming down the

791
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 1: hills of a guy who scored almost no touchdowns last year,

792
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 1: So it's it's interesting to think about what to do

793
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 1: with Fournette. Sean, where are you?

794
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 5: Yeah?

795
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,279
Speaker 4: So you mentioned his lack of touchdowns last year. He

796
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 4: only had three rushing touchdowns and zero receiving touchdowns, which

797
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 4: is kind of I mean, he had the volume to

798
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 4: score a lot more. But you know, the Jaguars, like

799
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:32,359
Speaker 4: you said, they're going to be a very bad team

800
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 4: again this year. They're not going to give him many

801
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 4: goaling opportunities, but it should go up. The question is

802
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,760
Speaker 4: how much. So I have his total touchdowns of rushing

803
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 4: and receiving combined, that line set at six and a half.

804
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 1: Right now, I knew that's where you're going to set it,

805
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 1: because if I had to set it, That's where I

806
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,440
Speaker 1: would have said it. I have it at six point

807
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 1: three four, So I'm going to take the under, but

808
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 1: just barely.

809
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 3: I have it at six point four. I'm a tenth

810
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 3: of a point under. But yeah, I think the thing

811
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 3: you usually go under these running back props if you're

812
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 3: in doubt, just because there's always a potential for injury.

813
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,439
Speaker 3: For Nette, it has been a player that has missed

814
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 3: some games. And then there's also the situation that you know,

815
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:18,799
Speaker 3: maybe he gets traded. Maybe you know, he misses a week,

816
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:20,800
Speaker 3: maybe they maybe he goes into doghouse and a just

817
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 3: bench you who knows. I mean Jay Gruden, who's the

818
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:28,320
Speaker 3: offensive coordinator there, straight up healthy scratched Adrian Peterson in

819
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 3: Week one last year. So if the team is down

820
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 3: on a guy, you know, anything could happen.

821
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 2: So I'm going to take the under here.

822
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you guys make some great points. But

823
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 4: his his ADP is dropping to a place where I

824
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 4: don't think people really factor in the expected positive touchdown aggression. Again,

825
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,839
Speaker 4: he's not going to be a double digit touchdown guy,

826
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 4: but just getting like six out of him with his volume,

827
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:57,839
Speaker 4: he could be a steal as a mid RB two.

828
00:40:57,880 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 5: Are you kidding me? So?

829
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 4: I I think just investing slightly on some positive touch

830
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:04,240
Speaker 4: on aggressions, a smart movement.

831
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 5: It comes in.

832
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 1: All right, let's close it out with the AFC West

833
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:12,720
Speaker 1: and the Chiefs. Super Bowl winning Chiefs just signed pretty

834
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:16,720
Speaker 1: recently quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a ten year deal worth

835
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 1: reportedly in excess of five hundred million dollars with four

836
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:26,439
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy seven million in quote guaranteed mechanisms. That's

837
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 1: per Ian Rapaport. I don't know what that means guaranteed mechanisms,

838
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 1: but it seems like he's gonna get a lot of

839
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 1: money coming his way. The question is Sean is he

840
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 1: going to light it up this year? And how much

841
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 1: is he going to light it up?

842
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 4: He is absolutely going to light it up this year,

843
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 4: and it's scary to think how much he can light

844
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 4: it up. And this projection's tricky as well. Right now,

845
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 4: I have I'll just foot line, then I'll weigh in.

846
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 4: Right now, I have the line at thirty five and

847
00:41:53,239 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 4: a half over over God damn it. I recommend betting

848
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 4: the over thirty four and a half at all legal

849
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:07,399
Speaker 4: books right now. That seems to be the line there.

850
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean it's scary to think they they

851
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:14,239
Speaker 4: trailed by one score more at a league low three

852
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 4: point six percent of the time last year, and then

853
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 4: we saw that kind of flip in the playoffs. They

854
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:23,400
Speaker 4: were basically in comeback mode for the entire playoffs and

855
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 4: we saw what happen. So, I mean, just this defense

856
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 4: could request to average and they could get into more

857
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 4: pass happy game scripts. And you know, I think he

858
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 4: has fifty touchdown potential. We've already seen that, but this

859
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 4: year it could set up perfectly to see something like

860
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 4: that again. I'm kind of worried that both of you

861
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,840
Speaker 4: guys on the over, because I was hoping you'd be

862
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:45,399
Speaker 4: on the under.

863
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 5: But what are your guys thoughts.

864
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 3: I mean, when you look at the post regular and postseason,

865
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 3: Mahomes has eighty nine touchdown passes and thirty six starts

866
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 3: you know over to a game, I think that's where

867
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:01,720
Speaker 3: right where he'll be. We've seen him, you know, attempt

868
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 3: enough passes in his career now, and then the players,

869
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:06,960
Speaker 3: the supporting cast is the same to kind of have

870
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 3: a pretty stable idea of what Mahomes can do. And

871
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 3: I think last year was one of if you had

872
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 3: like a range of outcomes and a bell curve like

873
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:17,200
Speaker 3: last year was on the very low range of albomes

874
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 3: like like the you know, probably ten percentile or something

875
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 3: like that, and that recency bias is a little baked

876
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 3: into that book line. But yeah, as you mentioned, I think,

877
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 3: you know, the upside is you know, fifty plus.

878
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 2: Upside is the record.

879
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 3: Really essentially, I think that that's way too close to

880
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 3: the floor than the than the ceiling.

881
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:38,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree with Raygand there I have this number.

882
00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:39,719
Speaker 1: I don't I don't want to say where I have it,

883
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 1: but it's high. It's it's ridiculous.

884
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 5: What do you got? What do you got?

885
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 1: No, it doesn't, but it starts with a thirty nine,

886
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 1: so it's it's high. I mean, we were talking about

887
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 1: the best quarterback who has I would say at least

888
00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 1: a top three play caller with him. But you know,

889
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 1: Andy Reid may be the best play caller in the

890
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:06,760
Speaker 1: game and who probably has the best surrounding supporting cast,

891
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 1: right Like Damian Williams and Clyde Edwards Hilaire both are

892
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 1: really strong pass catching backs. Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mikiel Hardman.

893
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,720
Speaker 1: That's maybe the best trio or one of the best

894
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 1: trios of starting wide receivers at least in a minimum,

895
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 1: all of them are very explosive and have the ability

896
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 1: to turn any touch, any target into a long touchdown.

897
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:32,399
Speaker 1: And then you add Travis Kelcey. If you don't want

898
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 1: to say he's the number one tight end, you can

899
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:36,400
Speaker 1: at least say he's a top two tight end. Like

900
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 1: it's an unreal wealth of talent that he has. And

901
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:44,399
Speaker 1: even if he had just average talent, as long as

902
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 1: he had Andy Reid there to help coordinate, he would

903
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:51,879
Speaker 1: probably be able to be a top two, top three

904
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:54,879
Speaker 1: fantasy quarterback on a yearly basis. You add on top

905
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:58,399
Speaker 1: of that all of the other players around him the over,

906
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 1: I would just blind bet whatever number, whatever reasonable number

907
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 1: you would come up with to give me. I know,

908
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 1: I would just take the over on it.

909
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 4: Good to know, Yeah, But I mean, imagine if Miko

910
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 4: Hartman has a big year two leap and he essentially

911
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:15,759
Speaker 4: has two Tyreek Hills on the field at once. I mean,

912
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:19,320
Speaker 4: I think they'll phase out DeMarcus Robinson. But having Mikole

913
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 4: Harmon and Terry Kill in the field at the same time,

914
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:22,239
Speaker 4: is this not even fair.

915
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about another team that's just loaded

916
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 1: with talent, the Las Vegas Raiders. This team took speedster

917
00:45:31,040 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 1: Henry Ruggs the Third as the number one wide receiver

918
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 1: in the draft. It will be intriguing to see what

919
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 1: this team is able to do their first year in

920
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. Derek Carr has another year in the system,

921
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 1: and they've really added as many pass catching weapons as

922
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:49,800
Speaker 1: they can over the past couple of years. Henry Ruggs

923
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 1: the Third, what are we going to see out of

924
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:52,439
Speaker 1: him this year? Sean?

925
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, So this is probably the toughest team to figure

926
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 4: out where all the targets are gonna go, because you know,

927
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 4: they added a good mix of rookies. Ruggs is obviously

928
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:06,720
Speaker 4: the top one, but they also added you know, veterans

929
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:09,240
Speaker 4: like Nelson Aguilar and Jason Witten, which you know they'll

930
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 4: work in at some point.

931
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 5: We don't know how much.

932
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 4: So it's really hard to project this this Raiders passing attack.

933
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:20,360
Speaker 4: But right now I have Rugs at oh man. This

934
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 4: is a tough line the set, but I have him

935
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,359
Speaker 4: at fifty eight and a half of receiving yards per game.

936
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 4: So curious if you guys are just gonna hammer the

937
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:29,320
Speaker 4: crap out of the over here or the under.

938
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:32,839
Speaker 1: I'll take the under, even though I like Rugs a lot.

939
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 1: As you mentioned the addition of other players, there are

940
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 1: just too many other players on this team for me

941
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:46,320
Speaker 1: to think that Ruggs consistently gets targets. Tyrell Williams, Hunter, Renfro,

942
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:50,360
Speaker 1: Brian Edwards will probably still some targets, and then Nelson

943
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:53,560
Speaker 1: Agilor or who knows with him, but Darren Waller, Jason Witten,

944
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,319
Speaker 1: Foster Moreau is still going to see some targets. And

945
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 1: that doesn't even take into account that the team resigned

946
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 1: Jalen Rishard, who should see his targets out of the backfield,

947
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:06,839
Speaker 1: and then they drafted Lynn Bowden Junior, who's going to

948
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 1: it seems like play as a running back, who I

949
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 1: think will be a pretty good pass catcher out of

950
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 1: the backfield. I just think they're going to spread the

951
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:17,440
Speaker 1: ball around a lot to a lot of players. And

952
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:20,839
Speaker 1: so even though I think Ruggs ultimately leads the team

953
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:24,359
Speaker 1: or comes close to leading the team in yards this year,

954
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 1: I don't want to bet on the over with him.

955
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm very much less on Ruggs. I think he'll

956
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:33,240
Speaker 3: lead that team. He'll ultimately lead that team in receiving.

957
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 3: But I will take the under here. If you look

958
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 3: at the median yards per game in year one over

959
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:41,399
Speaker 3: the last ten years for first round wide receivers, it's

960
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 3: around forty one and a half, and guys like DJ

961
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:49,879
Speaker 3: Moore forty nine point three, DeAndre Hopkins fifty point one,

962
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:53,439
Speaker 3: Calvin Ridley fifty one point three, Brandon Cooks fifty five.

963
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 3: That's kind of the range I think Ruggs will end

964
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:57,880
Speaker 3: up in. If he were to get fifty nine, he

965
00:47:57,880 --> 00:47:59,879
Speaker 3: would be he'd be in like the seventy fifth eighty

966
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 3: eightieth percentile. And I don't know if he's that good.

967
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 3: So I am gonna go with the under. But I

968
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 3: like him in fantasy. I'm taking him a lot as

969
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 3: my you know, number four or even number five receiver.

970
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 1: Love him in best balls.

971
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, damn it.

972
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 4: I tried to beef that number up because I thought

973
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 4: Rayvon would be all over the over. I guess I

974
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 4: was wrong, so I'm probably right in line with you guys.

975
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:23,720
Speaker 4: I will say though, that I still think Darren Waller

976
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:27,280
Speaker 4: will be the top target in this offense, and then Rugs,

977
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:29,799
Speaker 4: you know, close behind at number two, but yeah, I

978
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 4: have him closer to the mid fifties, but the ceilings there.

979
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 1: I have Waller with two more yards than Henry Ruggs

980
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:40,120
Speaker 1: for the season, so they're pretty neck and neck for

981
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:43,720
Speaker 1: me on the targets. Let's talk about the Chargers. Quarterback

982
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers is gone. Running back Melvin Gordon is gone,

983
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 1: so that means running back Austin Eckler. He looks poised

984
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 1: to be the lead back for the entire year, and

985
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 1: that's after being the number four overall PPR back last

986
00:48:56,800 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 1: season while splitting work with Melvin Gordon. And so the

987
00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 1: question is Austin Eckler, what should we expect to see

988
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 1: out of him this year?

989
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:07,839
Speaker 4: This is a fun projection because, I mean, we saw

990
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 4: his potential in weeks one through four last year and

991
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,880
Speaker 4: Melvin gar is out dude his holdout and he averaged

992
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:16,680
Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty two scrimmage yards a game. But

993
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 4: that was with Philip Rivers. So this is a different offense.

994
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:24,279
Speaker 4: Whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert. I mean, I

995
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 4: think that's going to hurt Eckler's, you know, overall attempts.

996
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 4: And we have to wonder if they try to limit

997
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:32,760
Speaker 4: his attempts to keep him healthy for all sixteen games.

998
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 4: So right now, my total scrimmage yards per game for

999
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 4: Eckler would be ninety two and a.

1000
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 1: Half over, I love Austin Eckler this year. I think

1001
00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 1: he's going to continue to be used pretty heavily in

1002
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,839
Speaker 1: the receiving game. Even though Tyrod Taylor doesn't have the

1003
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 1: proclivity to dump the ball off to his running backs

1004
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 1: the way that Philip Rivers did, we've still seen him

1005
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:58,359
Speaker 1: connect with Leshaun McCoy in the past. I still think

1006
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 1: Austin Eckler is going to be used a bit in

1007
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:03,799
Speaker 1: the receiving game, where he is highly efficient, and then

1008
00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 1: I think we're going to see him have I mean

1009
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:10,640
Speaker 1: easily a career high in carries this year. I wouldn't

1010
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:13,880
Speaker 1: expect him to have over fifty percent of the team's carries,

1011
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:16,279
Speaker 1: but I still think that he ultimately leads the team

1012
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:19,840
Speaker 1: and carries. So I'm going for around like one hundred

1013
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 1: scrimmage yards per game. I like Austin Eckler quite a bit,

1014
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 1: and I think there's there's room for more because if

1015
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:30,720
Speaker 1: they actually do use him like a Christian McCaffrey esque

1016
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 1: type of player there. I think like that's within the

1017
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 1: range of outcomes. Like people aren't really thinking that that's possible,

1018
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:41,279
Speaker 1: but I mean it could be possible. They could decide, hey,

1019
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 1: he's going to be our top runner. We don't like

1020
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 1: these other guys we have behind him, and if that happens,

1021
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 1: he could blow this number out of the water.

1022
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is tough for me.

1023
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:53,640
Speaker 3: That's like, right where I have it, I am going

1024
00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 3: to go under, just because unders are generally the sharper play.

1025
00:50:57,280 --> 00:50:59,840
Speaker 3: It's the only thing I will say is that with Eckler,

1026
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 3: he's one of these players that in my model, he's

1027
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:05,280
Speaker 3: just projected to regress in terms of his efficiency because

1028
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:08,279
Speaker 3: his first three yards in the league, he's averaged over

1029
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 3: ten yards to catch each year. That's that's almost unheard

1030
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 3: of for running back and just not something you can

1031
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:15,960
Speaker 3: you never project a running back for that many yards

1032
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:19,480
Speaker 3: per reception. He's also averaged four point eight yards per carry,

1033
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 3: which is one of the least predictive stats in terms of,

1034
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 3: you know, looking forward. So while I do expect them

1035
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 3: to have a big year, and I do agree he

1036
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:31,479
Speaker 3: has that kind of Christian McCaffrey like upside in terms

1037
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:35,240
Speaker 3: of his usage. I also have his efficiency stats regressing

1038
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 3: a bit, so I'll go slightly under.

1039
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:40,839
Speaker 4: And I'm happy Freeman went there. With the comparison with

1040
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 4: Chris McCaffrey, I did get in trouble on Twitter, but

1041
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 4: even hinting at that a few months ago, but I agree.

1042
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:49,520
Speaker 4: I think Eckler he does have that Chris McCaffrey upside.

1043
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:52,280
Speaker 4: I don't think we can expect that kind of volume,

1044
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:55,239
Speaker 4: but if we see pictures of him shirtless, looking like

1045
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:57,399
Speaker 4: the Hulker or something, you know.

1046
00:51:57,600 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 5: Then I'll buy into that.

1047
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 4: But I do think of the charge understand that they

1048
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 4: can't give him that kind of workload. That's why I'm

1049
00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:07,360
Speaker 4: worried that that four game stretch was basically them saying,

1050
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 4: you know, maybe trying to convince Melvin Gordon to return sooner.

1051
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:13,040
Speaker 4: There could have been something behind that. But if they

1052
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:15,279
Speaker 4: if they need to be healthy for all sixteen games,

1053
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 4: they might scale it back from what we saw. But again,

1054
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:21,840
Speaker 4: if he changes his body type and they're more comfortable

1055
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:25,440
Speaker 4: with that, he definitely has, you know, Christian McCaffrey upside.

1056
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:27,319
Speaker 1: Sean, I don't think there's anything at all wrong with

1057
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:29,640
Speaker 1: Austin Eckler's body I don't know what you're saying your

1058
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 1: body shaming him over there.

1059
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 4: I mean, just the transformation that McCaffrey made. I think

1060
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:37,800
Speaker 4: we all should have been, you know, more bullish on

1061
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 4: him than we even were at the time.

1062
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:44,040
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the Denver Broncos. Quarterback Drew

1063
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 1: Locke is entering his second season. They've added offensive coordinator

1064
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:52,800
Speaker 1: Pat Schrmer, and that wide receiver unit has been rebuilt

1065
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 1: with the addition of rookies Jerry Judy in kJ Hammler.

1066
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 1: What does this mean, Sean for Drew lock.

1067
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:02,840
Speaker 4: Well, obviously he's gonna have more than his two hundred

1068
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:04,359
Speaker 4: and four yards per start last year.

1069
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:06,600
Speaker 5: The question is how much, And.

1070
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:09,240
Speaker 4: I mean he has the ceiling in this offense, especially

1071
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 4: to get up there in yards per game. I do

1072
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:15,680
Speaker 4: think this defense will be above average, so and that

1073
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:18,880
Speaker 4: you know, hopefully get Bradley Chubb for more than than

1074
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:20,279
Speaker 4: what they held last year. I think it was like

1075
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:23,160
Speaker 4: ten games or so. So I think the defense will

1076
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 4: be better. So I have his line set at two

1077
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 4: thirty five and a half, but understandably his his upside

1078
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:30,400
Speaker 4: is much higher.

1079
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 5: But I think a.

1080
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 4: Good medium projection per start for him is two thirty

1081
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:35,279
Speaker 4: five and a half.

1082
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:36,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go.

1083
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take under Ava at two thirty one, so

1084
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:41,840
Speaker 3: I'm pretty close. This is a very young team. Courtland

1085
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 3: Sutton improved a lot last year, but he's still a

1086
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:48,360
Speaker 3: guy who defenses I think can focus in on Judy

1087
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:49,400
Speaker 3: and Hamler.

1088
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 2: Locke hasn't really worked with them, and you know, this

1089
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:53,840
Speaker 2: is a situation.

1090
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:55,320
Speaker 3: Where I would worry a little bit more about the

1091
00:53:55,400 --> 00:53:57,400
Speaker 3: lack of an offseason just because you have.

1092
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 2: A new UNI all around.

1093
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:02,960
Speaker 3: You have a new offensive coordinator and Sherman coming over

1094
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:05,720
Speaker 3: from the Giants. You have a quarterback that's only started

1095
00:54:05,719 --> 00:54:08,000
Speaker 3: five games entering year two learning a new system. You

1096
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:10,959
Speaker 3: have you know, two rookie receivers that are probably going

1097
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 3: to start. You have a even you know, kind of

1098
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:17,200
Speaker 3: a new guy, a new weed dog in the backfield.

1099
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 2: I mean, there's just so many new pieces there.

1100
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:22,880
Speaker 3: And you know, you still have Garrett Bowles, you know,

1101
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:25,680
Speaker 3: holding you know, at the highest rate in the league.

1102
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,319
Speaker 3: So I don't know, I just I'm not that as

1103
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:30,280
Speaker 3: high in this offense as a lot of people.

1104
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:31,440
Speaker 2: But I also agree.

1105
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:33,319
Speaker 3: I think the defense will be pretty strong, and that

1106
00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 3: ultimately I think will be the fact that that that

1107
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 3: makes me go under more than more than the lack

1108
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:40,680
Speaker 3: of an offseason.

1109
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:43,839
Speaker 1: Raybaonnd raised a lot of great points center, but I'm

1110
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:46,960
Speaker 1: still going to take the over. When you look at

1111
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:51,680
Speaker 1: Pat Shermer and the offenses that he's coordinated in the past,

1112
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 1: it's been I think fairly impressive. Even with Daniel Jones

1113
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:57,760
Speaker 1: last year. You know, they ended up passing for over

1114
00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 1: four thousand yards with the And yeah, I mean obviously

1115
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 1: Pat Trummer did amazing work a few years ago with

1116
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings when case Keenulm was the quarterback.

1117
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:08,439
Speaker 5: There.

1118
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:11,760
Speaker 1: There is a lot of talent here, not just talking

1119
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:15,400
Speaker 1: about Courtland Sutton, who I think is a real deal

1120
00:55:15,680 --> 00:55:18,719
Speaker 1: number one type of wide receiver, but Jerry Judy and

1121
00:55:18,800 --> 00:55:21,840
Speaker 1: kJ Hamler as guys who have been added. Melvin Gordon

1122
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 1: is a better pass catching back than Philip Lindsay, so

1123
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:28,080
Speaker 1: there's a you know, an added benefit there. And then

1124
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:30,880
Speaker 1: Noah Fant, especially as a tight end who can develop

1125
00:55:30,920 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 1: in his second season in the league. I'm going to

1126
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:37,320
Speaker 1: take the over. I again, I see all the potential

1127
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:41,239
Speaker 1: reasons for downside with Drew Locke, but I will I

1128
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:43,640
Speaker 1: will take the over there pretty aggressively nice.

1129
00:55:43,840 --> 00:55:45,279
Speaker 4: I'm glad we got to end on one where I

1130
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:49,120
Speaker 4: split you down the middle went over one under Sean.

1131
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 1: Any of the props that you offered that you feel

1132
00:55:53,160 --> 00:55:57,239
Speaker 1: the least confident about now after this conversation.

1133
00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, obviously. I mean, like I said, I'm in a

1134
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:04,279
Speaker 4: update my two game start projection, so I'm going to

1135
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:08,040
Speaker 4: be more confident about my projection. Actually, Patrick Mahomes, I

1136
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 4: think boosting up his passing touchdowns. I've been slowly doing

1137
00:56:12,560 --> 00:56:14,640
Speaker 4: that the more I look into the data and stuff,

1138
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:16,560
Speaker 4: and you guys kind of solidified the things that I

1139
00:56:16,640 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 4: was thinking about, So I'll probably boost him up, you know,

1140
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 4: closer to forty. The other one was Henry Ruggs. I

1141
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 4: agree with you guys that there's just too many targets

1142
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:29,560
Speaker 4: to go around to really project him closer to what

1143
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 4: I consider his stealing, so I'll probably be lowering him.

1144
00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:34,760
Speaker 4: But other than Thatt, like I said, I'm standing pat

1145
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:37,360
Speaker 4: with the aj Brown yards per catch. I'm pretty confident

1146
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:40,239
Speaker 4: about that one. This is always a good exercise for

1147
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:42,640
Speaker 4: just all of us to kind of share the ideas

1148
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:44,840
Speaker 4: and kind of you know, tweak our projections one or

1149
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:46,920
Speaker 4: the other based on things that we could consider. So

1150
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:49,920
Speaker 4: I take this as something that will help me sharpen

1151
00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:51,160
Speaker 4: them going forward.

1152
00:56:51,560 --> 00:56:54,360
Speaker 1: All right, Raybon, it seems like our job here is done.

1153
00:56:54,640 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 1: That's the preview for our AFC player projections, which you

1154
00:56:58,120 --> 00:57:01,280
Speaker 1: will be able to access in our C surmizable Fantasy

1155
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:04,920
Speaker 1: Football cheat sheet out soon at the Action Network. Next episode,

1156
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:08,840
Speaker 1: we will preview our NFC player projections. You can follow Sean,

1157
00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:11,520
Speaker 1: Chris and me in the Action Network app at the

1158
00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:15,080
Speaker 1: Underscore Oddsmaker Chris, Raybond, and Matt f the Oracle. Please

1159
00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 1: subscribe to and rate interview the show and don't forget.

1160
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:20,960
Speaker 1: You can listen and download on Spotify. See you again

1161
00:57:21,040 --> 00:57:34,240
Speaker 1: next episode.

1162
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:38,400
Speaker 5: We're finished talking