1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: Good morning. It's Wednesday, the sixteenth of August in London. 2 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Daybreaker at podcast. I'm Stephen Carroll. 3 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:10,720 Speaker 2: And I'm Tom McKenzie. Coming up today. UK inflation comes 4 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:14,240 Speaker 2: in above expectations for the fifth time in six months. 5 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: Dozens of payments are missed by one of China's shadow 6 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: banking giants, as cracks in the economy deepen. 7 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 2: And we bring you a special report into Muslims who 8 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 2: say their lives have been ruined by the UK's dbanking policy. 9 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: Let's start with the roundup of our top stories. 10 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 2: UK inflation higher than expected. UK inflation has traders once 11 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 2: again betting the Bank of England will hike rate to 12 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 2: six percent year on year. CPI rose by six point 13 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 2: eight percent in July. That's a sizeable drop on the 14 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 2: month before, but up on expectations for the fifth time 15 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 2: in six months. Core inflation also came in hotter than forecast, 16 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 2: holding steady at six point nine percent. Treasury Secretary John 17 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 2: Glenn says the government is to thank for slowing price rises. 18 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 3: This is lowest since February last year. That doesn't happen 19 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 3: by magic, It happens by deliberate action. By government ministers 20 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 3: holding onto government budgets, working very closely to take out 21 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 3: inefficienciason waste and ensure that we keep that pressure down 22 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 3: on inflation. 23 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 2: The Treasury sectary added the government are on course to 24 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 2: hit their target of halving inflation by the end of 25 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 2: the year. However, markets are currently pricing in another seventy 26 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 2: five basis points of hikes from the Bank of England. 27 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,119 Speaker 1: The latest Federal Reserve minutes are expected to show an 28 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: increasingly dubvish outlook from policymakers. According to Bloomberg Economics, a 29 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 1: record of July's FMC meeting will show the majority of 30 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 1: officials were encouraged by progress on disinflation, but not yet 31 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 1: convinced the rate hike cycle is over. That chimes with 32 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: the view of Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari, who says 33 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 1: the battle against inflation is not yet over. 34 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 4: Right now, inflation is coming down. We've made some progress, 35 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 4: some good progress. I feel good about that. It's still 36 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 4: too high. The good news is the labor market has 37 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 4: remained very strong. But it's a little bit of a 38 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 4: double edged sword because the question in my mind is 39 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 4: have we done enough to actually get inflation all the 40 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 4: way back down to our two percent mark, or do 41 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 4: we have to do more now? 42 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: Kash Carrie votes on monetary policy this year. He and 43 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:19,680 Speaker 1: other key central bankers will gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming 44 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: later this month for the Annual Economic Policy Symposium to 45 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: debate the global path ahead for interest rates now. 46 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 2: Chinese shadow bank John Wrong has now missed payments on 47 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 2: dozens of products and says it has no immediate plan 48 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 2: to cover them. That's as it faces a short term 49 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 2: liquidity crunch. The firm is a major player in China's 50 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 2: two point nine trillion dollar trust industry, which pulls savings 51 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 2: to invest in real estate and wider markets. Bluembergs John 52 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 2: Leo warns investors should not see this as an isolated case. 53 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 5: This is an issue that we've seen in the trust industry. 54 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 5: There have been tens of billions of dollars of products 55 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 5: that have defaulted already. It's likely that there will be 56 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 5: more because there was so much lending by trust in 57 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 5: China to property, and with the real estate situation as 58 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 5: it is, there is a great chance so there will 59 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 5: be more of this in the future. 60 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,959 Speaker 2: Blue Bugs John Lil underscoring the troubles in China's property 61 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 2: Sector's house prices fell for a second straight month in July, 62 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 2: this as the Chinese Central Bank moved to boost sentiment 63 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 2: with a stronger than expected yuan reference rate and the 64 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 2: largest short term cash injection since February. 65 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 1: Intel says it's walking away from its attempt to acquire 66 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 1: Tower Semiconductor after failing to win regulatory approval in time. 67 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 1: The chip firms say they've mutually agreed to terminate the 68 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: five point four billion dollar takeover, with Intel paying Tower 69 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 1: a termination fee of three hundred and fifty three million. 70 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: The news is a major blow for Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger, 71 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: whose growth strategy is centered on expanding the firm's outsourced 72 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: chip manufacturing business. 73 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 2: The debate over d banking in the UK has put 74 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 2: fresh focus on those who have difficulty accessing financial services. 75 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 2: Figures from the Financial Conducts Authority the FCA show one 76 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 2: in ten British Muslims don't have a bank account. Bloomberg 77 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 2: has spoken to a number of customers who struggled with 78 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 2: the system. Former postman Ikil Ahmed says the issue has 79 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 2: only gotten any attention because of the controversy over Nigel 80 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 2: Farrage's account being closed. 81 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 6: Or men have created equal some more equal than others. 82 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 6: It's because it's nitherl. Farrage that this has all come 83 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 6: to light. Otherwise they will find with that happening too, 84 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 6: sol may other people. And then that now the fact 85 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 6: that the heads of banks are having to resign and stuff. 86 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 6: Neither Farage weighed against every other person. It's happened too, 87 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 6: and Nyser Farahs weighed heavier than all of us put together. 88 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 6: How does that make any sense? Where is the justice 89 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 6: for us? 90 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 2: Arkhamed's Halifax card was canceled after three decades with the lender. 91 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 2: A spokesperson for Halifax's own Alloyd says they meet all 92 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 2: regulatory and legal requirements and do not close an account 93 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 2: based on a customers political or personal beliefs. 94 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 1: The philanthropic organization that controls most of the assets in 95 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: George Soarus's twenty five billion dollar family office is set 96 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: to end the majority of its operations in the European Union. 97 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: Open Society Foundation says it's making the move because the 98 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:22,600 Speaker 1: EASE institutions are already allocating significant resources to human rights, 99 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:26,279 Speaker 1: freedom and pluralism. George Soarris handed control of the foundation 100 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,600 Speaker 1: to his son Alexander in December. In a statement, the 101 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: organization says it's now undertaking a global review of how 102 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 1: it works to support democracy and other philanthropic causes. 103 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,359 Speaker 2: Now, Bloomberg has learned that a US litigation funder is 104 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 2: backgrolling massive legal action against UK universities for closures during 105 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:48,160 Speaker 2: the COVID nineteen pandemic. 106 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 7: Bloomberg's Unpots reports TRGP Capital is spending an undisclosed amount 107 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 7: in roughly one hundred and forty thousand claims against eighteen 108 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 7: UK universities. This according to a lawyer involved in the cases. 109 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 7: University College London, the University of Manchester and the London 110 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 7: School of Economics are among the universities accused of charging 111 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 7: full tuition fees for lower quality remote education during the pandemic. 112 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:14,119 Speaker 7: Schimung Gold Ort is a partner at Asseton Law Office, 113 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 7: which is one of the two firms handling the cases. 114 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,799 Speaker 7: Undergraduate claims are value at an average of five thousand 115 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 7: pounds each, adding up to potentially hundreds of millions of 116 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 7: pounds in payouts. The first claims are being filed against 117 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 7: UCL in the High Court in London. UCL says it 118 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 7: respects the right of students to complain, but is pleased 119 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 7: the court has allowed more time to resolve the claims 120 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,920 Speaker 7: without further litigation. In London, I'm une pots Bloomberg day 121 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 7: Break Europe. 122 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 1: Well, let's get some more detail now on that latest 123 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: UK inflation print, with GOT Bloomberg's senior UK economist Dan 124 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 1: Hansen joining us to discuss, as well as Marcus Ashworth 125 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Opinion. As well as we're looking at that 126 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 1: print that came in harsher than expected in terms of 127 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: the headline number the cores CPI number, though remaining steady 128 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: between June and July. Dan Hanson, let's go to you first. 129 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 1: I mean, how much of a concern is that this 130 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: core number didn't move over that month? 131 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 8: So morning, Stephen, So I think it is. It is 132 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 8: what the Bank of England will focus on, essentially, and 133 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 8: I think in particularly it will be the rise in 134 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 8: services inflation that happened on the month. It came in 135 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 8: a little bit hotter than the bank's forecast. So I 136 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 8: think it will be a worry to them. But I 137 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 8: actually don't think it will be as much of a 138 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 8: worry as what happened yesterday with the wages data, so 139 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 8: I think that will be their biggest concern going into 140 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 8: the September meeting. I mean, one thing to remember here 141 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 8: is we do have another set of wage and inflation 142 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 8: data coming before the September meeting, so you know, it 143 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 8: being the UK data, the narratives will probably shift again, 144 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 8: But nonetheless does things stand now. I think it's pretty 145 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 8: likely they're going to hike again in September and it's 146 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 8: going to be based around that wages data. I think 147 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 8: the data today doesn't really move the needle much in 148 00:07:57,720 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 8: their thinking. 149 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 1: That's going to Marcus Asha some Blomber opinion. Marcus, I 150 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: wonder how you feel about the market reaction to this 151 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 1: latest set of data as well. The market's getting it 152 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 1: right and in terms of where the Bank of England 153 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: goes from here. 154 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 9: Yeah, I suppose that at least the predictability of what 155 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 9: the Bank of England has signaled to US is much 156 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 9: better than it has been in previous months. So yeah, 157 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 9: I think the market has been driven higher anyway by 158 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 9: US rates and also interesting by European rates at the moment. 159 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 9: But I think, as Dan is quite clearly laid out, 160 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,960 Speaker 9: we are in a more confident mode in the Bank 161 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 9: of England, but the numbers still aren't giving them any 162 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 9: means to do anything other than keep on hiking. The 163 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 9: key here really is whether or not they hike by fifty, 164 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 9: which I don't think they will, and I think they've 165 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 9: made words like restrictive and a few other little phrases 166 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 9: which mean that they are going to have to increase 167 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 9: by twenty five basis point as they go along. We 168 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 9: do have another month of both the payroll, employment and 169 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 9: inflation data to see, but it's highly likely we were 170 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 9: twenty five September twenty first, and then probably another one 171 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 9: maybe to I think I agree again with Dan. I 172 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 9: don't think they will go to six, but for the 173 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 9: moment they're buying as much time as possible. But the 174 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 9: inflation data is fine, but the labor and particularly wage 175 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 9: data is too strong for them to stop biking. 176 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 2: Marcus, there's the what you expect and what you think 177 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 2: they should they should do, of course, so what do 178 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 2: you think they should should do? I mean, there is 179 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 2: no evidence yet of a wage price spiral in the 180 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 2: UK going to most economists what you speak to, including 181 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 2: our own team, So why not just sit pat and 182 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 2: hold on and see how this filters? Through the economy, 183 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:39,719 Speaker 2: particularly as people re mortgage. 184 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 9: I definitely would would think that would be the wiser 185 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 9: long term action. But for whatever reason, they're painting themselves 186 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 9: at the corner here, whereby they made very clear and 187 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 9: they've shifted the goalposts at the August meeting, making it 188 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 9: very evident that they're really not looking at headline inflation 189 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,679 Speaker 9: so much as service sector inflation, which is back up 190 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 9: to a peak we saw in May at seven point five, 191 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 9: and most importantly more than a clear private sector wage 192 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 9: growth should be down around six six point two something 193 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:08,839 Speaker 9: like that by the end of the year. You know, 194 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 9: that's that's shot up and got even further away. So 195 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 9: I don't think how they set their sort of whole 196 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 9: credibility stall out they are going to do anything other 197 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 9: than keep on hiking steadily and slowly and if they 198 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 9: see very good reason why they can pause. And I 199 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 9: think they're really led by both the FED and perhaps 200 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 9: the European Central Bank here. If quite clear the Fed 201 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 9: and easy beer are on pause, maybe the banking will 202 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 9: be brave, but they will be the last to be 203 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 9: brave here. They realize they've got a worse problem with 204 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 9: stick here, core and service inflation and particularly wage growth 205 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 9: than other economies, and that they are forced to act 206 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:53,199 Speaker 9: under their own very clearly now laid out guidelines. 207 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: Dan Hanson from Bloomberg Economics. I mean part of the 208 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: move in the headline rate this time around was to 209 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 1: do with base effects and energy. Are there more of 210 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 1: these basi acts to come that will kind of give 211 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 1: us an idea as to where the path looks from 212 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,719 Speaker 1: here and what does that tell us in terms of 213 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 1: the path for core inflation when we look from here 214 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: on out. 215 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 8: Yeah, so I think the next the next real staging 216 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 8: post for UK inflation is October, so we're going to 217 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 8: get We'll get it. There'll be the rise in prices 218 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 8: in October last year, will fall out of the annual comparison, 219 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 8: and at the end of this month, hopefully off Gen 220 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 8: will give us or by the end of this month, 221 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 8: I should say hopefully off Gen will give us some 222 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 8: good news that energy bills will fall slightly, not not 223 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 8: a huge amount, but slightly again and that will move 224 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 8: into the CPI numbers in October. So at that point 225 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 8: we think inflation headline CPI inflation will fall down to 226 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 8: around five percent and that will be obviously good news 227 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 8: to the Prime Minister because we think he'll he'll just 228 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 8: about achieve his goal of harving inflation. The key point 229 00:11:56,559 --> 00:12:00,719 Speaker 8: here though, is around around core inflation, and actually it's 230 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 8: quite hard to see core inflation slowing much low levels 231 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 8: we're already at, so we think by the end of 232 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 8: the year we're going to be a touch above six percent. 233 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,679 Speaker 8: We're not going to fall below six percent until early 234 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 8: twenty twenty four. And I think the context here again 235 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 8: it goes back to the data yesterday, which is really 236 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 8: the big one of the two releases we've had this week. 237 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 8: It's that it's very hard for core inflation to slow 238 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 8: much if wage inflation is still going up. It's just 239 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,439 Speaker 8: it's very difficult for that to happen. So I think 240 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 8: what we're going to see is this really sticky picture, 241 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 8: and Marcus has set that out really clearly. And the 242 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:40,200 Speaker 8: question and that I think for the Bank of England 243 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 8: it's not really just about its terminal rate, which we 244 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 8: can argue the toss about. I think it's actually about 245 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 8: how long they stay at that terminal rate, and the 246 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 8: fact that for twenty twenty four, the prospect of cuts 247 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 8: are becoming sort of less and less likely if you like, 248 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 8: because this picture around the labor market it's just still 249 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 8: very very tight and they need to just weigh on 250 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 8: it more with it with the policy stant So I 251 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 8: think that that's our that's our baseline outlook for now, 252 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 8: and continue to adjust as we go. 253 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 2: Thanks Dan. Really bad news for anyone looking to remortgage 254 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 2: out there. Let's Marcus, let's bring you back in briefly 255 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 2: and step back from the UK data and the granularity 256 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 2: to look more broad at what's happening in terms of 257 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 2: the disinflation or the change in terms of different disinflation globally. 258 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 2: We see, we see Canada the surprise pick up there overnight. 259 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 2: We've got energy prices, you've got Brent and w c I, 260 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 2: you have gas price volatility. Do you think, Marcus, markets 261 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 2: may be overly complacent about the potential re emergence of 262 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 2: inflation more broadly. 263 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 9: Well, certainly they are more complacent than the central bank 264 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 9: general group think is. And we'll find out a lot 265 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 9: more about how central banks are approaching this moving the goalpost, 266 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 9: I mean, as Dan's later, I think the Bank of 267 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:00,839 Speaker 9: England does followed the ECB, which is follow the Fed, 268 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 9: and we'll find out Jackson Hole later this month. Quite 269 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 9: how the FED intends to continue this whole plateau model, 270 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 9: which is get rates up to five five and a half, 271 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 9: doesn't really matter of six, probably not, but somewhere in 272 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 9: the fives, and then keep it there for as long 273 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 9: as possible to try and stop this horrid, sickening second 274 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 9: lurch up which everyone knows is going to come at 275 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 9: some point. When you get inflation down, you can get 276 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 9: the headline stuff down quite quickly because it's energy and 277 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 9: foods as fast moving stuff, and then you hit the 278 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 9: sort of second round effects. Stickier stuff comes through and 279 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 9: we've seeing that in the laboured egg as well, and 280 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 9: that's what they're most worried about, the central bankers, and 281 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 9: therefore they want to keep rates now very high for 282 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 9: as long as possible and price out any expectations of 283 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 9: rate cuts. And I think that's what the dynamic is now. 284 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 9: I'm being very impressed how the Fed's managed to convince 285 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 9: the US by market that that's the case. And clearly 286 00:14:57,440 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 9: we're seeing the ECB move there and now, and then 287 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 9: the August Monagey reports or the Bank of England moving 288 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 9: the banking will be the last to pause and the 289 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 9: last to cut. But you know everyone's following the FED 290 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 9: and we will. Sty'll set their stall out in the 291 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 9: month on the on the big way that they'll convince 292 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 9: markets that they are going to stick at this because 293 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 9: the second really any good news or disinflation comes through. 294 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 9: As you well know, markets instantly look to price the 295 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 9: end of the race high cycle. 296 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 1: Marcus, just to go back something you said a minute 297 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: ago about the Bank of England. You want to see 298 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: the Bank of England being brave about this. What does 299 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 1: a brave Bank of England look like now? 300 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 9: Ah, Well, if they were brave, they would be able 301 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 9: to look through this data. I feel and know that 302 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 9: the downtown and the economy and the slandering of the 303 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 9: e commy will do a lot of this work for them. 304 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 9: It's really a question I think that mentioned this earlier. 305 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 9: You know, if they already expect to be back into 306 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 9: their target by in their say, three year time frame, 307 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 9: it's a question of do they need to get back 308 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 9: in within eighteen months two years, or they can they 309 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 9: chill a bit and go even beyond the sort of 310 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 9: into the two to three year period. At the moment, 311 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 9: they're not prepared to do that. But if they see 312 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 9: further evidence in the real economy of things really slowing down, 313 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 9: loosing the labor market, and some signs that a lot 314 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 9: of this stuff that's coming through the monetary policy time lag, 315 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 9: which we know is least a year, probably goes to 316 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 9: two years that they're you know, fourteen consecutive rate hikes 317 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 9: of over fire on a basis point, are starting to 318 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 9: feed through and will continue to feed through. Maybe they 319 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 9: can they can take up a bit more of a 320 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 9: pause on life. Will they only do that they feel 321 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 9: confident they can keep rates at this level for at 322 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 9: least a year from here, and I think that's what 323 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 9: they're more. They've showed in August they're moving that they're 324 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 9: prepping things and prepping the market to expect. Not so 325 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 9: much about more and more rate hikes one or two 326 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 9: doesn't really matter. It's the fact they'll stay here for 327 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 9: a long time, and that is now the new Mancha 328 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 9: from the central banks. 329 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: Okay, MICUs Ashwrothbomberg opinion columnist, thanks so much for joining us, 330 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: and to Dan Hansen, our senior UK economists from Bloomberg 331 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: Economics as well. 332 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 10: Well. 333 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 1: After Nigel Faraj said that his coat's bank account was 334 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: closed because of his political beliefs. The issue of d 335 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: banking has been thrust into public attention, but it's an 336 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:15,239 Speaker 1: issue that British Muslims have had to contend with for 337 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 1: some time. Bloomberg's fintech reporter Aishaghana has been looking into 338 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 1: this and speaking to people who've been affected by it. 339 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 1: I hate a good morning to you. Great to have 340 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 1: you with us. What happens then to people who are 341 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 1: d banks that you've. 342 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 10: Been speaking to, Well, the people who've been de banked, 343 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:32,120 Speaker 10: they typically have found that their accounts have been frozen 344 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 10: for a few days or for a few weeks. I 345 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 10: caught up with one man, Ekille Ahmed from Luton. He's 346 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,399 Speaker 10: a former postman, and he said his bank account, his 347 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 10: current account, was frozen for six weeks and his wife's 348 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,439 Speaker 10: joint account was also frozen. And in that time it 349 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,439 Speaker 10: meant that he didn't have access to his money, He 350 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:57,360 Speaker 10: couldn't get his grocery shopping, his debit direct debit started bouncing. 351 00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 10: Let's take a listen of what he had to say 352 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 10: or have. 353 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 6: Created equal some more equal than others. It's because it's 354 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 6: nitherl farage that this has all come to life otherwise 355 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,439 Speaker 6: they will finely that happening to so many other people. 356 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 6: And then now the fact that the heads of banks 357 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 6: are having to resign and stuff. Neither Farage weighed against 358 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:21,400 Speaker 6: every other person. It's happened too and nisther Fars weighed 359 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 6: heavier than all of us put together. How does that 360 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 6: make any sense? Where is the justice for us? 361 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: T't okay Lapman speaking to you Aisha? How wide scale 362 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,200 Speaker 1: is this issue? Right? 363 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 10: So, we know that one thousand people a day last 364 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,920 Speaker 10: year had their bank account shut down, and that's been 365 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 10: increasing year on year, But we don't know exactly who 366 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,159 Speaker 10: is being hit by this. We know within like the 367 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 10: Muslim community, for example, one in ten don't have any 368 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:55,360 Speaker 10: kind of current account, so it is evidently impacting some 369 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 10: people more than others. 370 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,200 Speaker 2: Well, actual, why is it's remarkable that statistic one in ten? 371 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 2: Is are there cultural reasons for that? Or is this 372 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 2: the industry and fails the industry level? Why is it 373 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 2: hitting the Muslim community so acutely? 374 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,679 Speaker 10: It's hard to know because there isn't enough data, but 375 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:14,880 Speaker 10: we know that it is based on socio economic reasons. 376 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 10: If we look at the sort of the demographics we're 377 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 10: talking about, people typically from immigrant backgrounds. It depends on 378 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,120 Speaker 10: what part of the country you're from. You're more likely 379 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 10: to be unemployed for example, or for example, you know 380 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,920 Speaker 10: have difficulty getting a job as well. So there's it's 381 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 10: like compounded by multiple things, and it is just there's 382 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,399 Speaker 10: just such a lack of report. 383 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 2: Lack of income shouldn't be an impediment to opening a 384 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 2: current account. I mean, I opened a current account when 385 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 2: I was sixteen, I had no real income. Of things 386 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 2: changed at the industry level, Why is a lack of 387 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,920 Speaker 2: income or low income preventing people from opening just very 388 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 2: basic current accounts? 389 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 10: Indeed, well, if you look at the Financial Conduct Authority 390 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,399 Speaker 10: release data from their survey last year, and in that 391 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:06,400 Speaker 10: chart you can see that one in fifty Brits don't 392 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 10: have bank accounts, and that increases with people who are 393 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 10: for example, unemployed, or people who have learning disabilities, or 394 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:17,440 Speaker 10: just multiple things like that, and it just increases. And 395 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 10: I think there needs to be a lot more attention 396 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 10: to these people who are underserved and to give credit. 397 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 10: There are some more digital banks that are adjusting these issues. However, 398 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 10: we can still see that those statistics are still staggering. 399 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,639 Speaker 1: You talk in the story about the screening that banks 400 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 1: are relying on when there comes to approving opening accounts 401 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 1: for customers. These are based on third party watch list. 402 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 1: How does that play a part in whether someone is 403 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:46,479 Speaker 1: flagged as a risk or not? 404 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:47,120 Speaker 8: Right? 405 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,879 Speaker 10: So, typically, if you or I opened a bank account today, 406 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 10: we'd have to fill in our details and it would 407 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 10: go through like the standard know your customer checks. Now 408 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 10: banks have an obligation to check against anti for anti 409 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 10: money launching and also for counter terror financing, and so 410 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,440 Speaker 10: there might be additional checks. And yes, these are based 411 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:15,639 Speaker 10: on third party databases which will include government sanction lists 412 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:19,120 Speaker 10: and other watch lists. And so let's take a customer. 413 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:22,200 Speaker 10: His name is Muhammad. What will happen is that you'll 414 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 10: screen against his name and check for matches if it 415 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 10: turns up in any sanctions this and you can set 416 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 10: the fuzziness so you can you can decide how you 417 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,120 Speaker 10: want the matches and for example, you can include every 418 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 10: single spelling of Muhammad if you like. And that's up 419 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:43,159 Speaker 10: to the banks to decide just how much sort of 420 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 10: the risk appetite that they take and the resources that 421 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 10: they'll put into checking these customers. 422 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:54,160 Speaker 2: I should is this? I mean, okay, how the banks responded, 423 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 2: is racism at play here? Is that what it comes 424 00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 2: down to as well as a lack of income? Is 425 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 2: this about racist some and how the banks responded. 426 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 10: That's a really good question. Every single person I spoke to, 427 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 10: for lack of better, for lack of a better answer, 428 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,360 Speaker 10: that was their conclusion that they came up with. They thought, Hey, 429 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 10: my name is Mohammed Khan. You know, I mean, why 430 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 10: else have I been Why else has my bank account 431 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 10: been shut down? I haven't been given a reason. I've 432 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 10: asked for reasons, and no one's telling me. And so 433 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,399 Speaker 10: for many years, that's kind of the conclusion that a 434 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:29,399 Speaker 10: lot of people have come up with. So during the 435 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 10: last earnings a season, when we asked bank chiefs about this, 436 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 10: many of them said that we don't take personal or 437 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 10: political beliefs into account. And that is what is that. 438 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 10: That is the statement that is given. But I think 439 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 10: a lot of people, you know, having spoken to a 440 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 10: lot of people, people who have been impacted. This is lawyers, 441 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 10: we're talking about this former postman, We're talking about people 442 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 10: who are within the financial services industry. They believe that 443 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,159 Speaker 10: more needs to be done to look at some of 444 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 10: the underlying bias that's built into the systems, and to 445 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,679 Speaker 10: take a better look at, even if it's not intended, 446 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 10: who is being impacted. 447 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 6: At the end of this