WEBVTT - Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>This is Master's in Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the podcast. This is Barry Ridholts, and today

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<v Speaker 1>I have a very special guest, really somebody who is

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<v Speaker 1>a legend on Wall Street. Jack Rivkin, best known as

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<v Speaker 1>a managing director at Lehman Brothers, c I O at

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<v Speaker 1>new Berger and Berman, a partner at Ideal Labs, and

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<v Speaker 1>and now managing director at Altegri's. Jack is really a

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<v Speaker 1>legend and and the way his legend um forms is

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<v Speaker 1>he was hired to take Lehman Brothers research department, which

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<v Speaker 1>was literally dead last in the i I rankings, just

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<v Speaker 1>the worst research department on Wall Street. And he was

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<v Speaker 1>hired to improve that. And he did a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>things that actually turn out to be quite common today,

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<v Speaker 1>but back in the day when he was doing this,

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<v Speaker 1>it was relatively unheard of. He hired lots of women

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<v Speaker 1>and minorities. People just didn't do that way back when.

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<v Speaker 1>He also started tracking how people's research report was used

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<v Speaker 1>by the Street, how often people requested a specific analysts report,

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<v Speaker 1>how much revenue it generated, how much commission dollars had generated,

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<v Speaker 1>simple basic quantitative metrics to evaluate um the research product,

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<v Speaker 1>and we take all those things for granted today. He

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<v Speaker 1>was the first guy who did this. So not only

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<v Speaker 1>did he do a lot of for then, out of

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<v Speaker 1>the box hiring and outside of the box thinking, he

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<v Speaker 1>engaged in a lot of off campus retreats and lots

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<v Speaker 1>of stuff that were considered touchy feely back then and

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<v Speaker 1>again fairly common fair today. And over the course of

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<v Speaker 1>three years, he took Lehman Brothers Research from the worst

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<v Speaker 1>to the best on Wall Street, who was the number

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<v Speaker 1>one ranked research department. For his troubles, he was subsequently

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<v Speaker 1>fired by Dick Folds and his inner circles of yes men,

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<v Speaker 1>as I like to call it um, But he was

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<v Speaker 1>so successful. Jack was so successful in this that the process,

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<v Speaker 1>the methodologies, what he did became the basis of a

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<v Speaker 1>Harvard Business School case study. For those of you not

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<v Speaker 1>familiar with Harvard Business School, they teach through a series

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<v Speaker 1>of case studies. Here's how a manager, Here's how a CEO,

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<v Speaker 1>Here's how a company addressed a specific problem and solved it.

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<v Speaker 1>And so I actually met Jack through a mutual friend.

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<v Speaker 1>It was at a dinner with the famous art cassion

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<v Speaker 1>of Ubs and John Moulden where I met Jack, and

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<v Speaker 1>it turned out we had a lot of things in common,

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<v Speaker 1>even though he's got a few um years and a

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<v Speaker 1>few gray hairs on me. We're both fishermen. I ended

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<v Speaker 1>up in reducing Jack to to David ko Talk because

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<v Speaker 1>they're just same age, same you know, same sort of background,

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<v Speaker 1>same era. They hit it off swimmingly. Jack is now

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<v Speaker 1>a regular fixture at the Ko Talk Shadow Fed event,

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<v Speaker 1>which is every August up in Maine where a bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of fund managers and economists go fishing. Um Jack really

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<v Speaker 1>fit in very well. But he's a fascinating guy because

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<v Speaker 1>he then leaves, then leaves Lehman Brothers and ends up

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<v Speaker 1>at New Burger and Berman, where he's c I O

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<v Speaker 1>and does a phenomenal job there, to the point where

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<v Speaker 1>Lehman Brothers ultimately ends up buying New Burger and Berman.

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<v Speaker 1>And here's Jack, a guy who was fired um after

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<v Speaker 1>doing a great job, ends up working for the same

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<v Speaker 1>guys who fired him, and gently egresses himself out of

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<v Speaker 1>Lehman a second time. This this version is voluntary, and

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<v Speaker 1>it turns out to be quite fortuitous timing because he

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<v Speaker 1>le eaves just before Lehman collapses. I want to say

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<v Speaker 1>two years before everything hit the fan, and so uh,

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<v Speaker 1>he ended up really being one of those situations where

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<v Speaker 1>it was a fantastic firing and and did really well

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<v Speaker 1>for him. But Jack is one of these guys who's

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<v Speaker 1>just really savvy and down to earth again, another no

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<v Speaker 1>nonsense sort of guy who just tells it like it is.

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<v Speaker 1>And Amen, she's a delight to speak with. He's really

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<v Speaker 1>a charming fellow. I love the fact that he's seventy

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<v Speaker 1>or seventy one and has zero interest in retiring. He

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<v Speaker 1>loves what he does. When he was a partner at

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<v Speaker 1>Ideal l Abs, he's still a partner at Ideal Labs.

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<v Speaker 1>Really fascinated by finance, technology and software as well as biotech,

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<v Speaker 1>and we briefly talked about you know, printable organs and

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<v Speaker 1>principal bones and and things along those lines. It's it's

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<v Speaker 1>the areas that interest him I find quite fast and

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<v Speaker 1>and so I thought this conversation was really really interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not as much inside baseball as I've threatened. For

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<v Speaker 1>a guy that the average investor may not know who

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<v Speaker 1>he is, he's been all over the street. He's got

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<v Speaker 1>just a phenomenal career, a great track record, and just

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<v Speaker 1>a deep, deep well of knowledge. So it was a

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<v Speaker 1>pleasure to sit with him and have him share some

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<v Speaker 1>of that. So I think I've babbled more than enough. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>probably a minute longer than my usual babbling. Without further ado,

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<v Speaker 1>here's my conversation with Jack Rivkin. This is Masters in

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<v Speaker 1>Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio today. On the show,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm thrilled to have my friend Jack Rivkin, a person

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<v Speaker 1>you may not know who he is, again, another inside

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<v Speaker 1>baseball sort of person who people on the street certainly

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<v Speaker 1>know who he is. His his Let me just give

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<v Speaker 1>you a little flavor of his resume, because it's quite outstanding.

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<v Speaker 1>You began your career as research as a research analyst

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<v Speaker 1>back in ninety eight at a small firm called Mitchell Hushins.

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<v Speaker 1>Eventually become head of research there they get bought by

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<v Speaker 1>pain Webber and you work your way up the ladder

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<v Speaker 1>of Pain Weber, where you become research director, CFO, CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of the equity trading side, and eventually president of Pain

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<v Speaker 1>Webber Capital. Then you move over to Lehman Brothers in seven.

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<v Speaker 1>There are some other things in the middle, but I'm

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<v Speaker 1>just doing the highlights At Lehman Brothers. You famously took

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<v Speaker 1>them from first from worst to first famous right, and

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<v Speaker 1>eventually your tenure there was the subject of a Harvard

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<v Speaker 1>Business School case study describing exactly what goes in taking

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<v Speaker 1>a last place research firm turning it to a first

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<v Speaker 1>place firm. You were c I O, Chief Investment Officer

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<v Speaker 1>at New Burger Berman, and before that you were Director

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<v Speaker 1>of Global Research at Smith Barney. And currently you're a

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<v Speaker 1>director at Dale Carnegie Associates and on the Economic Club

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<v Speaker 1>of New York. Did did I miss any of the

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<v Speaker 1>big The only thing you missed were I have My

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<v Speaker 1>most fun is I'm a director of Ideal Lab. You

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<v Speaker 1>do very early stage investment pre venture capital. We start

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<v Speaker 1>with an idea and turn it into a company. There

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<v Speaker 1>you go. That's that's about as early stage as it gets.

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<v Speaker 1>So you've obviously had a very storied career on Wall Street.

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<v Speaker 1>You've worked in a lot of major firms. Um, what

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<v Speaker 1>were your early influences, what actually affected your early approach

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<v Speaker 1>to investing. Well, I had some very good mentors at

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<v Speaker 1>Mitchell Hutchens. There were three people that I worked with

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<v Speaker 1>for a long time and they made a difference in

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<v Speaker 1>my life. Don Mirren, who became CEO at Paint Webber

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<v Speaker 1>and then when they sold to UBS, he took over

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<v Speaker 1>a private equity operation there. Dave Williams, who, when he

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<v Speaker 1>left Mitchell Hutchins went to Alliance Capital and built Alliance

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<v Speaker 1>Capital up was not owner the Alliance Bernstein acquisition. And

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<v Speaker 1>Mike Johnston, who went to Capital Research and had a

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<v Speaker 1>long career there as well. They were very strong influences

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<v Speaker 1>on my care I left out earlier. You're from originally

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<v Speaker 1>from Oklahoma. That's right. How does a guy like you?

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<v Speaker 1>You went to college at Colorado, Colorado School of Mines

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<v Speaker 1>engineering degree. I went there to actually become a petroleum engineer,

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<v Speaker 1>but I really didn't like identifying rocks, so I switched

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<v Speaker 1>to metallurgy and got my engineering degree. Realized that I

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<v Speaker 1>didn't really want to be an engineer. I actually went

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<v Speaker 1>to work for Procter and Gamble out of out of

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<v Speaker 1>engineering school and then went back to business school. So

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<v Speaker 1>you end up at Harvard Business School. I ended up

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<v Speaker 1>at Harvard and from there, well, I went to Harvard

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<v Speaker 1>to become the world's expert in manufacturing. I was going

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<v Speaker 1>to go back and make better soap, and I realized

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<v Speaker 1>that there were other things going on in the world,

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<v Speaker 1>and one of them was Wall stre Did we really

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<v Speaker 1>need better soap? Soap has been pretty good for a while. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>but you could always make it better, at least that's

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<v Speaker 1>what they told. You can always sell more units of all, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So you end up. I end up on Wall Street.

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<v Speaker 1>And I gotta tell you, you know, growing up in Tulsa,

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<v Speaker 1>if anyone had told me I had go to New York,

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<v Speaker 1>I would have told them they were crazy anyone go

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<v Speaker 1>to that kind of a city. And then if they said,

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<v Speaker 1>and you're going to work on Wall Street, I would

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<v Speaker 1>have had to ask what that was. I had no

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<v Speaker 1>interest in finance, never, I had no clue. And Tulsa

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<v Speaker 1>was at that point the oil capital of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Suddenly moved to Houston, so everyone was kind of focused

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<v Speaker 1>on that industry and taking those weird tests that you

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<v Speaker 1>do in high school, it said, well, maybe you ought

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<v Speaker 1>to think about being an engineer. So that's what I did.

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<v Speaker 1>But when I didn't like finding rocks and identifying them,

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<v Speaker 1>and when I found that there was more to life

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<v Speaker 1>than it was a great educational background, but there was

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<v Speaker 1>more going on out there, I moved on that's quite

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<v Speaker 1>quite fascinating. So you work your way through a number

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<v Speaker 1>of um a number of big firms. You've you've certainly

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<v Speaker 1>seen changes since. So you started in the late sixties,

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<v Speaker 1>which was pretty much the end of the post war rally. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>so you had a twenty year run from forty six

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<v Speaker 1>to sixty six. The Dow I think started at someone

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<v Speaker 1>in the two hundreds, just about kissed a thousand in

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen six air under it and then for the next

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<v Speaker 1>sixteen years that's whoever got back over that level. No,

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<v Speaker 1>it never did. It was an interesting period of time.

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<v Speaker 1>It was a time we're actually doing analytical work and

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<v Speaker 1>coming up with specific investment decisions. Actually made a difference

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<v Speaker 1>because the market wasn't helping you at that time. No,

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<v Speaker 1>whin did you're back. You've had five major rallies, five

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<v Speaker 1>major selloffs, and by the time you were done back

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<v Speaker 1>in two you were essentially where you started. That's right.

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<v Speaker 1>So high inflation rates, so you could get ten year

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<v Speaker 1>treasury yielding twelve fourteen and and and free Fed funds rate.

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<v Speaker 1>The high the peak was twenty two point three percent

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty two point three percent as the Fed funds rate,

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<v Speaker 1>and we had one, and we had a whole lot

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<v Speaker 1>of inflation over that same pioge we did we did

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<v Speaker 1>that was that was a period where you paid a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of attention to the to the classic deep cyclicals

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<v Speaker 1>who were involved in commodities, and some of them made

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of money. Coming up, we continue our conversation

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<v Speaker 1>with Jack Rifkin and we discussed how he took the

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<v Speaker 1>last place research department of Lehman Brothers and made it

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<v Speaker 1>the best on Wall Street. You're listening to Masters in

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<v Speaker 1>Business with Barry rid Holts on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Barry

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<v Speaker 1>rid Holts. You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>My guest today is Jack Rivkin. He's chief investment officer

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<v Speaker 1>at Altegri's Associates and has a very storied career on

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street. Worked at UH in very senior positions, head

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<v Speaker 1>of research, CFO, et cetera, at and a number of

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<v Speaker 1>large firms. But what you're really is it fair to

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<v Speaker 1>say what you're best known for is the work you

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<v Speaker 1>did at Lehman Brothers in its heyday? Is that a

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<v Speaker 1>fair statement? I I think that's close to a fair statement,

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<v Speaker 1>and it was definitely something unusual that happened there, and

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<v Speaker 1>we touched a lot of people and it made a difference.

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<v Speaker 1>So so let's stay back and talk about this. U.

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<v Speaker 1>By the way, you and I first met some years

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<v Speaker 1>ago and after I we had met, and you're just

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<v Speaker 1>a very ordinary guy, very humble. Like when one meets

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<v Speaker 1>Jack Rifken, one is not does not come away with wow,

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<v Speaker 1>that guy has an unbelievable resume. So so what a

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<v Speaker 1>nice guy. And I just happened to mention it to somebody.

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<v Speaker 1>By the way, I met a guy named Jack Rifken,

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<v Speaker 1>Jack Rivken. Do you know who Jack Rifken is? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>he's this guy. No, no, no, you should go google

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<v Speaker 1>Jack Rifken. So I google you, and upcomes the Harvard

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<v Speaker 1>Business School case study on what you did at Lehman

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<v Speaker 1>Brothers from I want to say seven to the early

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<v Speaker 1>that's right. So so essentially at the time, Lehman Brothers

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<v Speaker 1>was a fifth or sixth um largest investment bank, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>even a little smaller than that, with the research department

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<v Speaker 1>that someone called the laughing stock of Wall Street. Not well,

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<v Speaker 1>it was not highly regarded, essentially last place in every ranking.

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<v Speaker 1>And so who recruited you to run their research upon

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<v Speaker 1>actually a guy named Jeff Laine who had an influence

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<v Speaker 1>on several things later in my life. He was CEO

0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:18.720
<v Speaker 1>at New Burger when I went there as CEO at

0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:22.080
<v Speaker 1>his request, and this was kind of an offer that

0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:24.640
<v Speaker 1>was hard to refuse. First, it was sort of a

0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:27.920
<v Speaker 1>blank slate. I could I could do. I could apply

0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:33.200
<v Speaker 1>everything that I had learned to a something that really

0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:37.080
<v Speaker 1>needed to be reformed, and it truly needed to be reformed,

0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:40.480
<v Speaker 1>and there were incentives put in place to take it

0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:43.120
<v Speaker 1>up to somewhere in the top five. And that was

0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:46.280
<v Speaker 1>our that was really our goal. And really that five

0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 1>year plan took you about three years to put into

0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:51.720
<v Speaker 1>a That was the surprise. I was surprised at that

0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 1>as well, that we managed to do that in three years.

0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:57.280
<v Speaker 1>And so let's talk a little bit about the how

0:14:57.320 --> 0:14:59.760
<v Speaker 1>did you end up? What did you do to change

0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:03.840
<v Speaker 1>the staffing, the culture, and the quality of the work there. Well,

0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:07.800
<v Speaker 1>it was it was fairly easy in the sense that

0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:12.280
<v Speaker 1>I could make changes to everything. There was nothing that

0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:15.360
<v Speaker 1>was sacred. And in fact, in the case they talked

0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:18.840
<v Speaker 1>about the possibility that we could have actually brought in

0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:22.520
<v Speaker 1>a Wigia board and fired everybody, and nobody would have known.

0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.640
<v Speaker 1>Sometimes people wonder if that's actually what goes on in

0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:31.720
<v Speaker 1>research departments anyway. Well, the very famous monkey throwing darts

0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:34.880
<v Speaker 1>at a stop pages on the wall. That's absolutely right,

0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:38.800
<v Speaker 1>not that far off. So so what what changes aside

0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.960
<v Speaker 1>from the wholesale changes from what wasn't working? What did

0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:47.920
<v Speaker 1>you actually do? It was two things. Primarily, one was measuring.

0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:52.240
<v Speaker 1>We measured everything, and we measured it very openly. Whether

0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:54.880
<v Speaker 1>it was a number of calls and analysts made, what

0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:58.000
<v Speaker 1>their track records were on their stocks, the quality of

0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:01.320
<v Speaker 1>their written work, all of the contact they had with

0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:04.600
<v Speaker 1>the salesforce, the contact with the clients, all of anything

0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:07.640
<v Speaker 1>we could measure, we did, and we posted it. We

0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:10.760
<v Speaker 1>posted it so everybody could see it. Now, analysts aren't

0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:14.360
<v Speaker 1>tend to be competitive, so you're posting who makes the

0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:17.480
<v Speaker 1>most calls, who writes the best report, who writes the

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:21.760
<v Speaker 1>most reports, who has the most feedback coming from the salesforce,

0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:26.080
<v Speaker 1>how are they getting rated by the clients? All of

0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:28.320
<v Speaker 1>those things people saw. No one wanted to be at

0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:30.800
<v Speaker 1>the bottom of the list. So you created a somewhat

0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:36.040
<v Speaker 1>competitive environment. But against the background of it was spelled

0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:40.200
<v Speaker 1>out and we tried to make it as collegial as possible.

0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:42.880
<v Speaker 1>I instituted a rule that's at any time you were

0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:45.840
<v Speaker 1>out with a client and you talked about what you

0:16:45.880 --> 0:16:49.120
<v Speaker 1>were doing, and even in your reports, you had to

0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:53.640
<v Speaker 1>mention two other analysts in the department. Now, that started

0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:55.680
<v Speaker 1>out with people saying, well why do I do this?

0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:58.720
<v Speaker 1>I said, Number one, someone's going to mention you. You're

0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:01.520
<v Speaker 1>gonna get better known. Number two. Ultimately, you're going to

0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:04.360
<v Speaker 1>have to find out a reason why you're mentioning an analyst.

0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:06.920
<v Speaker 1>So it's gonna make you a better analyst as well.

0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:11.200
<v Speaker 1>So so all of these quantitative metrics and this transparency,

0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:15.000
<v Speaker 1>this is pretty common stuff these days. It wasn't then.

0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:17.520
<v Speaker 1>So so that was you guys were really operating a

0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:19.920
<v Speaker 1>little outside of the box and shaking things up well.

0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:22.760
<v Speaker 1>And we operated even more outside the box. We used

0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:26.479
<v Speaker 1>to have off sites that were bizarre. We did strange things,

0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:30.000
<v Speaker 1>face painting, uh. We We had people coming in talking

0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:33.199
<v Speaker 1>about left brain, right brain. We had people coming in

0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:38.480
<v Speaker 1>providing sports analogies to how you run a successful organization.

0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:41.240
<v Speaker 1>We did a lot with these folks. We put them

0:17:41.240 --> 0:17:45.040
<v Speaker 1>through a lot of training as well. Even the older analysts,

0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:48.600
<v Speaker 1>we would we would put them in a group and

0:17:48.720 --> 0:17:51.760
<v Speaker 1>have someone who was let's say we had an analyst

0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:55.159
<v Speaker 1>who was making the most calls that analysts would talk about,

0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:57.040
<v Speaker 1>Here's what I do, Here's how I do it, Here's

0:17:57.040 --> 0:17:59.359
<v Speaker 1>how I get off the phone to make the next call,

0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.720
<v Speaker 1>here is what I concentrate on, etcetera. We had one

0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:05.919
<v Speaker 1>of our analysts, who was a very good balance sheet person,

0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:08.840
<v Speaker 1>go through with all the other analysts. First, that meant

0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:13.440
<v Speaker 1>they were recognized internally, and secondly they were conveying information

0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:17.600
<v Speaker 1>and other people said, Hey, I'm surrounded by some good

0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:20.360
<v Speaker 1>folks here. And this did not really happen at other

0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:23.360
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Research. It was not happening as much. There

0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:27.000
<v Speaker 1>was another element that worked for us that was different.

0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:30.600
<v Speaker 1>We had a fair amount of gender arbitrage. I guess

0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:32.600
<v Speaker 1>that's the way I'd put it, meaning that you brought

0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:34.560
<v Speaker 1>in a lot of women, brought in a lot of women,

0:18:36.520 --> 0:18:40.560
<v Speaker 1>well they were mail and and the women. In terms

0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:44.000
<v Speaker 1>of market share of ranked analysts, we had the highest

0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:47.200
<v Speaker 1>market share by a lot. Now why did they come

0:18:47.240 --> 0:18:50.880
<v Speaker 1>there to work? Because we created an environment where one

0:18:50.960 --> 0:18:53.919
<v Speaker 1>they felt that they were recognized to that it was

0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.639
<v Speaker 1>totally based on merit. There was no nothing in the

0:18:56.640 --> 0:19:00.160
<v Speaker 1>way of compensation difference, and we supported, We created an

0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:03.520
<v Speaker 1>environment was supported if they had kids, let's deal with that,

0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:08.040
<v Speaker 1>if if they need to take a break, time off, office,

0:19:08.080 --> 0:19:11.320
<v Speaker 1>at home, whatever you wanted to do. And because we're

0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:15.439
<v Speaker 1>measuring everything, we knew people were working or they weren't.

0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:20.960
<v Speaker 1>It also became a very collegial environment. And that work.

0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:24.239
<v Speaker 1>Now the reason Harvard wrote a case on it is

0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:29.680
<v Speaker 1>because it applied outside of just a research effort. It

0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:34.440
<v Speaker 1>was taught in the Management of Service Organizations course as

0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:37.520
<v Speaker 1>they kind of standard for right. And I still go

0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:39.400
<v Speaker 1>up there, you know here it is. You know, it's

0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:43.480
<v Speaker 1>twenty years later and they're still teaching the course. That

0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:47.560
<v Speaker 1>that's quite fascinating. When we continue our conversation, we'll discuss

0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:52.119
<v Speaker 1>how Jack actually got fired from Lehman Brothers despite taking

0:19:52.160 --> 0:19:56.440
<v Speaker 1>them to the top of the institutional rankings. I'm Barry Rihults.

0:19:56.480 --> 0:20:01.800
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. You're

0:20:01.880 --> 0:20:05.159
<v Speaker 1>listening to Masters in Business with Barry rid Holts on

0:20:05.280 --> 0:20:14.639
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. This is Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

0:20:14.840 --> 0:20:18.199
<v Speaker 1>I'm Barry rid Holtz. Today we're speaking with Jack Rivkin,

0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:22.919
<v Speaker 1>who is currently Chief Investment officer of Altegri's associates. But

0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:25.840
<v Speaker 1>he has a very storied background and career. He worked

0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:29.400
<v Speaker 1>as the head of research at Lehman Brothers, the chief

0:20:29.480 --> 0:20:32.960
<v Speaker 1>investment officer for new Burger and Berman. You were at

0:20:33.000 --> 0:20:35.639
<v Speaker 1>Smith Barney, you are at a number of places, a

0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:42.040
<v Speaker 1>very storied um background and incredibly knowledgeable about how things

0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:45.320
<v Speaker 1>work in the world of finance. Earlier, we were talking

0:20:45.320 --> 0:20:48.000
<v Speaker 1>about how you had taken Lehman Brothers back in the

0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:52.800
<v Speaker 1>nineteen eighties from the worst research department, a laughing stock

0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:58.000
<v Speaker 1>on Wall Street, to the number one ranked institutional research department,

0:20:58.400 --> 0:21:02.879
<v Speaker 1>and for your troubles you were rewarded. How you listed

0:21:02.920 --> 0:21:05.200
<v Speaker 1>every place I had worked. Some people could say, well,

0:21:05.200 --> 0:21:08.000
<v Speaker 1>he couldn't hold a job, Well, this was an instance

0:21:08.040 --> 0:21:11.080
<v Speaker 1>where I clearly couldn't hold it. All those other jobs

0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:15.120
<v Speaker 1>you had been recruited away and hired away this one,

0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:18.879
<v Speaker 1>it was not quite the case there. Three years into it,

0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:22.120
<v Speaker 1>we were number one in research. I then moved from

0:21:22.160 --> 0:21:26.360
<v Speaker 1>being head of research to running the whole equity division,

0:21:26.840 --> 0:21:30.280
<v Speaker 1>and we were actually doing extremely well. But it happened

0:21:30.280 --> 0:21:33.520
<v Speaker 1>to be a time when the fixed income markets weren't

0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:35.959
<v Speaker 1>doing well. If you go back that was a period

0:21:36.080 --> 0:21:40.159
<v Speaker 1>of crisis SNLS. There were all these kinds of problems

0:21:40.520 --> 0:21:43.600
<v Speaker 1>and fixed income, which was the core of Lehman, was

0:21:43.640 --> 0:21:47.159
<v Speaker 1>not doing quite as well. And we were really kicking it.

0:21:47.440 --> 0:21:50.760
<v Speaker 1>We were doing extremely well, and I don't think that

0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:53.320
<v Speaker 1>went over well. And I had a different management style.

0:21:53.560 --> 0:21:56.840
<v Speaker 1>Lehman was a pretty buttoned up management style, and I

0:21:56.920 --> 0:22:01.600
<v Speaker 1>had casual fridays and all these offside, very loosey goosey

0:22:01.640 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 1>with But by the way, a lot of the stuff

0:22:03.560 --> 0:22:08.359
<v Speaker 1>you talked about, it's pretty standard operating procedure today today

0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:12.119
<v Speaker 1>in in a number of management courses and a number

0:22:12.160 --> 0:22:16.119
<v Speaker 1>of service oriented industries. But back then it was not.

0:22:16.359 --> 0:22:18.399
<v Speaker 1>People looked at you a little, hey, what is this crazy?

0:22:18.520 --> 0:22:21.840
<v Speaker 1>It was this crazy guy and what is he doing here? Well,

0:22:22.080 --> 0:22:25.760
<v Speaker 1>what what we were doing was producing results, but it

0:22:25.840 --> 0:22:28.639
<v Speaker 1>was not being done. And what I'd call the button down,

0:22:29.119 --> 0:22:31.040
<v Speaker 1>this is the way we're going to operate. And the

0:22:31.040 --> 0:22:34.399
<v Speaker 1>guy running the fixed income operation at that time was

0:22:34.960 --> 0:22:37.639
<v Speaker 1>a West Point grad. He had a certain way of

0:22:37.680 --> 0:22:41.080
<v Speaker 1>doing business. He was totally opposed to casual fridays and

0:22:41.119 --> 0:22:43.639
<v Speaker 1>he said, you know, I, I I just don't believe in

0:22:43.680 --> 0:22:48.320
<v Speaker 1>wearing doctors into work. And I said, well, what's important

0:22:48.320 --> 0:22:52.560
<v Speaker 1>are the results, not the numbers. That's it. And the

0:22:52.640 --> 0:22:57.200
<v Speaker 1>numbers were pretty good, but I didn't fit. So who

0:22:57.280 --> 0:22:59.399
<v Speaker 1>ultimately fired you? Was it Dick Fold or was it

0:23:00.160 --> 0:23:03.479
<v Speaker 1>Dick was in the office, Dick was in in the meeting.

0:23:03.680 --> 0:23:06.160
<v Speaker 1>It was Dick and Chris Pettitt, who was the guy

0:23:06.280 --> 0:23:09.240
<v Speaker 1>running the fixed income operation at that Hey, you're making

0:23:09.280 --> 0:23:11.440
<v Speaker 1>too much money on the equity side, and we don't

0:23:11.480 --> 0:23:14.000
<v Speaker 1>like what you're doing. You gotta go. Well you could

0:23:14.040 --> 0:23:18.119
<v Speaker 1>see how that ultimately were strange because I I you know,

0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:19.679
<v Speaker 1>they said, well, we're going to have to make a

0:23:19.760 --> 0:23:23.240
<v Speaker 1>change here and I I said, well, let's talk a

0:23:23.320 --> 0:23:26.199
<v Speaker 1>little bit about why. And they said, well, we just

0:23:26.280 --> 0:23:29.399
<v Speaker 1>feel it's necessary. It just as important. They wouldn't go

0:23:29.480 --> 0:23:34.160
<v Speaker 1>into it. There was no argument on that, and and okay,

0:23:34.200 --> 0:23:37.560
<v Speaker 1>so it was going to happen. That's fine. So it

0:23:37.640 --> 0:23:43.119
<v Speaker 1>then became let me negotiate the best exit I possibly could,

0:23:43.560 --> 0:23:46.720
<v Speaker 1>and I get maybe because they felt guilty or whatever.

0:23:46.960 --> 0:23:49.280
<v Speaker 1>It was a pretty good exit. It gave me a

0:23:49.320 --> 0:23:53.159
<v Speaker 1>lot of flexibility of things to do, and uh, I

0:23:53.280 --> 0:23:55.920
<v Speaker 1>still have lots of friends at Lehman, And of course

0:23:55.960 --> 0:23:59.199
<v Speaker 1>I came back involved with Lehman because new Burger. So

0:23:59.280 --> 0:24:02.199
<v Speaker 1>you ended up as chief investment officer at new berglan Berman.

0:24:02.840 --> 0:24:06.399
<v Speaker 1>So this is you leave Lean Well, No. Nine two

0:24:06.480 --> 0:24:09.960
<v Speaker 1>is when I Yes, ninety two is when I left Lehman.

0:24:10.280 --> 0:24:13.560
<v Speaker 1>And I was trying to actually with a guy named

0:24:13.640 --> 0:24:16.879
<v Speaker 1>Jim Freeman. We were going to actually raise a merchant

0:24:16.920 --> 0:24:20.800
<v Speaker 1>banking front. And I went to Sandy Wild to raise

0:24:20.880 --> 0:24:22.680
<v Speaker 1>some money and he said, why don't you come over

0:24:22.720 --> 0:24:25.480
<v Speaker 1>here and help us on the research. And then at

0:24:25.520 --> 0:24:28.800
<v Speaker 1>that point they had Smith Barney. Yes, they had Smith Barney.

0:24:28.880 --> 0:24:31.080
<v Speaker 1>And I said, no, I'm raising this fun And I

0:24:31.160 --> 0:24:32.960
<v Speaker 1>asked him, I said, well, when are you going to

0:24:33.040 --> 0:24:36.359
<v Speaker 1>buy Lehman? And he said, oh, they hate me, I

0:24:36.400 --> 0:24:39.600
<v Speaker 1>hate them. It's not gonna happen. I said, well, if

0:24:39.600 --> 0:24:41.840
<v Speaker 1>you ever do give me a call, there are a

0:24:41.880 --> 0:24:44.000
<v Speaker 1>couple of people there. I'm prepared to shoot for you.

0:24:44.640 --> 0:24:48.080
<v Speaker 1>So that two months later I get a call saying, well,

0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:51.840
<v Speaker 1>we're not buying Lehman, but we're buying the retail division

0:24:52.040 --> 0:24:56.159
<v Speaker 1>and we're buying the asset management business Smith Martin of

0:24:56.800 --> 0:25:00.200
<v Speaker 1>Jerson Lehman. They and they were adding it to the

0:25:00.240 --> 0:25:03.400
<v Speaker 1>Smith Barney. So they loved the Lehman research. Why don't

0:25:03.400 --> 0:25:05.200
<v Speaker 1>you come in and get a Susan, I said, I'm

0:25:05.240 --> 0:25:09.080
<v Speaker 1>raising this fun and to Sandy's credit, he said, okay,

0:25:09.119 --> 0:25:11.440
<v Speaker 1>you come over here and help us, and I'll give

0:25:11.480 --> 0:25:14.639
<v Speaker 1>you the money. The money he he gave was first

0:25:14.680 --> 0:25:18.320
<v Speaker 1>Travelers Investment Group money and then the City Group Investments

0:25:18.359 --> 0:25:21.040
<v Speaker 1>and I I was there during the dot com era.

0:25:21.080 --> 0:25:23.360
<v Speaker 1>I spent two years on the research side and then

0:25:23.440 --> 0:25:27.119
<v Speaker 1>moved into the investment group and ran a group of

0:25:27.119 --> 0:25:30.480
<v Speaker 1>folks doing venture capital and portfolio myself. And it was

0:25:30.560 --> 0:25:32.919
<v Speaker 1>during the dot com era. It was a great time

0:25:32.960 --> 0:25:37.720
<v Speaker 1>to be there. And I retired from that in two

0:25:37.760 --> 0:25:41.119
<v Speaker 1>thousand one. I tried to retire in the said no,

0:25:41.160 --> 0:25:43.679
<v Speaker 1>you gotta stick around. But I sold everything that I

0:25:43.720 --> 0:25:46.480
<v Speaker 1>thought I could sell, so there wasn't much left to do.

0:25:46.600 --> 0:25:51.080
<v Speaker 1>But I stuck around, retired with the intention of spending

0:25:51.080 --> 0:25:53.360
<v Speaker 1>a lot of time in the venture world. And then

0:25:53.400 --> 0:25:56.120
<v Speaker 1>I get a call from my friend from the Lehman days,

0:25:56.200 --> 0:25:59.680
<v Speaker 1>Jeff Lane, who was running Newberger Berman, and said, why

0:25:59.680 --> 0:26:02.639
<v Speaker 1>don't you I'm here at ce IO coming up. We

0:26:02.760 --> 0:26:06.439
<v Speaker 1>continue our conversation with Jack Rivkin discussing the world of

0:26:06.600 --> 0:26:10.960
<v Speaker 1>venture capital, investing, managed futures and Hedge Funds. You're listening

0:26:11.000 --> 0:26:15.000
<v Speaker 1>to Masters in Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:20.480 --> 0:26:23.960
<v Speaker 1>This is Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Barry

0:26:24.040 --> 0:26:27.159
<v Speaker 1>rid Holts. Today I'm speaking with Jack Rivkin, who is

0:26:27.280 --> 0:26:32.720
<v Speaker 1>currently head of Research and and principal at Altegri's Associates.

0:26:32.760 --> 0:26:35.600
<v Speaker 1>Is that correct? Or chief in pretty close chief Investment

0:26:35.680 --> 0:26:40.560
<v Speaker 1>ce IO, and earlier we were discussing um your career.

0:26:40.640 --> 0:26:44.199
<v Speaker 1>You had run the research department at Smith Barney and

0:26:44.320 --> 0:26:48.720
<v Speaker 1>before that at Lehman Brothers, and then eventually became chief

0:26:48.760 --> 0:26:52.840
<v Speaker 1>investment officer at new Berger and Berman. Along the way,

0:26:52.920 --> 0:26:56.400
<v Speaker 1>you were pretty active in the venture capital markets as well.

0:26:56.520 --> 0:27:00.920
<v Speaker 1>You were head of um VC cap it at Pain

0:27:01.000 --> 0:27:03.960
<v Speaker 1>Webber Is that right? Yes, I started up their merchant

0:27:04.000 --> 0:27:09.000
<v Speaker 1>banking capital operation. And you also are a principal City

0:27:09.040 --> 0:27:11.960
<v Speaker 1>Group at City Group and your principal at Ideal Apps

0:27:12.480 --> 0:27:15.359
<v Speaker 1>that does very early stage investing. Talk a little bit

0:27:15.400 --> 0:27:18.520
<v Speaker 1>about what the world of venture capital is like. Well,

0:27:18.560 --> 0:27:22.159
<v Speaker 1>the world of venture capital has changed fairly dramatically, but

0:27:22.280 --> 0:27:26.640
<v Speaker 1>it's primarily driven by Moore's law. If we're doubling processing

0:27:26.720 --> 0:27:29.560
<v Speaker 1>speeds every eighteen months, just think about that. That means

0:27:29.560 --> 0:27:32.520
<v Speaker 1>in ten years, whatever you're doing is sixty or four

0:27:32.560 --> 0:27:35.440
<v Speaker 1>times faster than it was ten years previously. And I

0:27:35.520 --> 0:27:37.720
<v Speaker 1>don't think we can imagine all the things you can

0:27:37.760 --> 0:27:41.119
<v Speaker 1>do with that. But there are folks out there, primarily

0:27:41.160 --> 0:27:43.520
<v Speaker 1>on the West coast and maybe up a little north

0:27:43.560 --> 0:27:47.560
<v Speaker 1>of here and that's right, who are figuring out things

0:27:47.840 --> 0:27:53.520
<v Speaker 1>to do and it's exciting. What what about the biotech side,

0:27:53.320 --> 0:27:56.919
<v Speaker 1>I think, particularly with what we see going on with

0:27:57.000 --> 0:28:00.679
<v Speaker 1>healthcare costs and whether it's sim cell re search or

0:28:00.800 --> 0:28:06.280
<v Speaker 1>brain research or any of this effort, the opportunities are phenomenal,

0:28:06.480 --> 0:28:09.120
<v Speaker 1>just just fascinating. You know, it's changing the world. It's

0:28:09.160 --> 0:28:12.560
<v Speaker 1>really tough to make a bet against human ingenuity. There's

0:28:12.560 --> 0:28:16.919
<v Speaker 1>so many fascinating new technologies coming out all the time.

0:28:17.440 --> 0:28:20.639
<v Speaker 1>It's hard to keep up with the pace of of innovation.

0:28:20.760 --> 0:28:23.199
<v Speaker 1>And what you have to do is find some smart

0:28:23.280 --> 0:28:27.320
<v Speaker 1>people who are driven and have a little bit of

0:28:27.520 --> 0:28:31.399
<v Speaker 1>something that relates to management and what they're doing, and

0:28:31.480 --> 0:28:34.280
<v Speaker 1>you can do wonderful things in the world. And the

0:28:34.359 --> 0:28:38.200
<v Speaker 1>great thing is we've got another country out there called China,

0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:41.880
<v Speaker 1>billion million people. My guess is the i Q spread

0:28:41.960 --> 0:28:44.320
<v Speaker 1>is the same as it is here. So you're talking

0:28:44.360 --> 0:28:46.480
<v Speaker 1>about an equivalent at the high end of the i

0:28:46.600 --> 0:28:49.720
<v Speaker 1>Q equal to the whole US population. They're going to

0:28:49.800 --> 0:28:52.640
<v Speaker 1>get there as well. And so what about all the

0:28:52.680 --> 0:28:55.360
<v Speaker 1>problems of it's a communist country and they're building these

0:28:55.360 --> 0:28:58.120
<v Speaker 1>ghost cities and you know all the problems that people

0:28:58.160 --> 0:29:00.760
<v Speaker 1>have been talking about China for the past cup of years.

0:29:00.960 --> 0:29:03.959
<v Speaker 1>Is that just something they work through or well, I

0:29:04.000 --> 0:29:06.400
<v Speaker 1>don't think you can work through it. I think there

0:29:06.440 --> 0:29:09.560
<v Speaker 1>will be some elements of disruption there. But the fact

0:29:09.640 --> 0:29:12.200
<v Speaker 1>is you have a group of very smart people there

0:29:12.280 --> 0:29:15.440
<v Speaker 1>at one end of that spectrum, and those folks have

0:29:15.560 --> 0:29:19.120
<v Speaker 1>always had to be entrepreneurs in a communist system. If

0:29:19.160 --> 0:29:22.160
<v Speaker 1>you're going to survive in that system and maybe to

0:29:22.240 --> 0:29:25.840
<v Speaker 1>some extent, thrive, you have to become an entrepreneur. May

0:29:25.840 --> 0:29:28.560
<v Speaker 1>not be the entrepreneur that we think about, but you're

0:29:28.600 --> 0:29:31.160
<v Speaker 1>having to think about what can I do, what can

0:29:31.200 --> 0:29:35.600
<v Speaker 1>I make use of that gets me beyond what's happening

0:29:35.680 --> 0:29:39.920
<v Speaker 1>in a bureaucratic controlled system, and a big segment of

0:29:39.920 --> 0:29:42.640
<v Speaker 1>the population does that. So let's talk a little bit

0:29:42.680 --> 0:29:46.400
<v Speaker 1>about other stuff you've done. In addition to venture capital,

0:29:46.560 --> 0:29:51.400
<v Speaker 1>there's been a lot of other alternative investments, hedge funds, futures.

0:29:51.760 --> 0:29:54.000
<v Speaker 1>Let's that's sort of my that's a bit of my

0:29:54.080 --> 0:29:57.960
<v Speaker 1>new life. Although I go back to having called on A. W.

0:29:58.200 --> 0:30:01.320
<v Speaker 1>Jones in the early days of one of the first

0:30:01.320 --> 0:30:06.480
<v Speaker 1>hedge funds that existed. But that's Alfred Jones, the essentially

0:30:06.640 --> 0:30:09.440
<v Speaker 1>the first He was at the first hedge fund. Are

0:30:09.440 --> 0:30:11.360
<v Speaker 1>you going to tell me that you knew Mr Jones

0:30:11.360 --> 0:30:13.720
<v Speaker 1>is no. No. The person I dealt with there was

0:30:13.760 --> 0:30:17.240
<v Speaker 1>a guy named Tony Healy who was also a legend

0:30:17.400 --> 0:30:20.880
<v Speaker 1>as well. And uh, they were true hedge funds. They

0:30:20.880 --> 0:30:25.600
<v Speaker 1>were actually actually they actually did hedges. They weren't leveraged funds.

0:30:25.640 --> 0:30:29.600
<v Speaker 1>They were actually making decisions on buying and selling securities

0:30:29.920 --> 0:30:33.200
<v Speaker 1>and thinking about risk, even in those early days. This

0:30:33.360 --> 0:30:37.320
<v Speaker 1>is back in the sixties as well, but coming out

0:30:37.520 --> 0:30:42.200
<v Speaker 1>of of New New Burger, where I actually stayed on

0:30:42.360 --> 0:30:45.040
<v Speaker 1>the mutual fund board for a long time after having

0:30:45.080 --> 0:30:50.080
<v Speaker 1>been c i O there, I actually got involved with

0:30:50.120 --> 0:30:53.239
<v Speaker 1>a couple of private equity firms as what's called an

0:30:53.320 --> 0:30:57.200
<v Speaker 1>executive advisor. What that meant is if they found something

0:30:57.200 --> 0:30:59.560
<v Speaker 1>that we're looking at where they thought I might have expertise,

0:31:00.320 --> 0:31:04.640
<v Speaker 1>I would get involved. And I did get involved very

0:31:04.760 --> 0:31:08.520
<v Speaker 1>rigorously going back to two thousand twelve in the possible

0:31:08.560 --> 0:31:12.479
<v Speaker 1>acquisition of Altegrists out of an insurance company, and I

0:31:12.520 --> 0:31:17.480
<v Speaker 1>was intrigued had been intrigued to some extent by alternative

0:31:17.560 --> 0:31:21.480
<v Speaker 1>investments and how liquid alternatives were becoming a part of

0:31:21.520 --> 0:31:25.960
<v Speaker 1>the program there. And I like the people, I like

0:31:26.080 --> 0:31:28.640
<v Speaker 1>the process, and I thought it would help build some

0:31:28.760 --> 0:31:32.760
<v Speaker 1>brain cells as well. And I after the deal was closed,

0:31:32.800 --> 0:31:35.280
<v Speaker 1>I went in as chairman of the company. We were

0:31:35.280 --> 0:31:38.560
<v Speaker 1>looking for a C I O. Really couldn't find someone

0:31:38.640 --> 0:31:41.280
<v Speaker 1>who could deal as broadly as I would have liked.

0:31:41.760 --> 0:31:44.160
<v Speaker 1>So I pulled a Dick Jeney, I said I can

0:31:44.240 --> 0:31:47.560
<v Speaker 1>do this, and and actually they took a vote. I

0:31:47.600 --> 0:31:50.000
<v Speaker 1>don't know how close it was, but I ended up

0:31:50.040 --> 0:31:54.200
<v Speaker 1>as c I O. And it's been a great experience.

0:31:54.280 --> 0:31:57.440
<v Speaker 1>I think it is an area that is doing some

0:31:58.040 --> 0:32:02.120
<v Speaker 1>under really interesting thing. You have to be careful, and

0:32:02.600 --> 0:32:05.440
<v Speaker 1>you have to be careful about what strategies at what time,

0:32:05.520 --> 0:32:08.840
<v Speaker 1>which gets to the concept of managed futures versus lawn

0:32:08.840 --> 0:32:11.200
<v Speaker 1>short equity or a lawn short fixed income. There's a

0:32:11.280 --> 0:32:13.800
<v Speaker 1>lot of varieties, so we're going way off into the

0:32:13.800 --> 0:32:17.840
<v Speaker 1>weeds in terms of a little more complex financial product.

0:32:19.200 --> 0:32:22.080
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about how the world has evolved over the

0:32:22.120 --> 0:32:25.240
<v Speaker 1>course of your career, because you started out the world

0:32:25.320 --> 0:32:27.960
<v Speaker 1>was a whole lot simpler. You were an equity analyst

0:32:28.360 --> 0:32:31.760
<v Speaker 1>in the late sixties, you were looking at balance sheets.

0:32:31.800 --> 0:32:37.000
<v Speaker 1>This is really Graham and Dodd fundamental research, and now

0:32:37.200 --> 0:32:42.320
<v Speaker 1>it's the polar opposite into the schedule spectrum of complex

0:32:42.640 --> 0:32:46.840
<v Speaker 1>hedged products, etcetera. Is it the world has changed so

0:32:46.920 --> 0:32:50.560
<v Speaker 1>much that that's what drew you there, or Hey, this

0:32:50.600 --> 0:32:53.120
<v Speaker 1>looks like something I haven't played in before. Let's have

0:32:53.160 --> 0:32:55.720
<v Speaker 1>a little fun with this. This is intriguing stuff. Well,

0:32:55.760 --> 0:32:59.040
<v Speaker 1>it's a combination. It was something that had not been

0:32:59.080 --> 0:33:02.200
<v Speaker 1>at the core of what doing. But it was absolutely

0:33:02.240 --> 0:33:05.000
<v Speaker 1>the case that if you look at the right kind

0:33:05.000 --> 0:33:08.600
<v Speaker 1>of hedge funds, they're doing the fundamental research. They're just

0:33:09.040 --> 0:33:12.280
<v Speaker 1>they've just got so much information coming at them that

0:33:12.400 --> 0:33:14.920
<v Speaker 1>they can do things that we couldn't do back in

0:33:15.040 --> 0:33:19.280
<v Speaker 1>the the early days here as well. And that intrigued me.

0:33:19.600 --> 0:33:21.920
<v Speaker 1>That intrigued me, and it also intrigued me that we're

0:33:21.960 --> 0:33:25.840
<v Speaker 1>moving toward risk is what you ought to be managing

0:33:26.040 --> 0:33:30.320
<v Speaker 1>as opposed to what are my returns? It's what level

0:33:30.360 --> 0:33:33.840
<v Speaker 1>of risk. Am I willing to take here to satisfy

0:33:33.920 --> 0:33:38.320
<v Speaker 1>whatever goals I have? And those strategies look like they

0:33:38.360 --> 0:33:44.440
<v Speaker 1>can fit into modifying or accepting an element of risk

0:33:44.520 --> 0:33:47.280
<v Speaker 1>in a portfolio. Risk risk has always been with us.

0:33:47.360 --> 0:33:53.640
<v Speaker 1>The traditional response is a sixty fortyfolio, so you have

0:33:53.720 --> 0:33:56.760
<v Speaker 1>an anchor of bonds, and when stocks are gonna shell

0:33:56.800 --> 0:34:00.479
<v Speaker 1>act like we've seen earlier this year, the bond uh

0:34:00.840 --> 0:34:03.520
<v Speaker 1>typically go the other way, so it takes a little

0:34:03.520 --> 0:34:06.520
<v Speaker 1>bit of the sting out of the drop um. For

0:34:06.600 --> 0:34:09.000
<v Speaker 1>the average person, is this the sort of thing that

0:34:10.000 --> 0:34:13.120
<v Speaker 1>makes sense? Or they are they better off with a

0:34:13.160 --> 0:34:18.160
<v Speaker 1>traditional asset allocation model? Or who's the intended client for

0:34:18.280 --> 0:34:22.239
<v Speaker 1>a sophisticated I think the client the client can't be

0:34:22.600 --> 0:34:27.520
<v Speaker 1>it's ultimately the end investor. But it is complex and

0:34:27.640 --> 0:34:30.480
<v Speaker 1>one has to really think about how you want to

0:34:30.520 --> 0:34:34.359
<v Speaker 1>allocate among all the asset classes that you've got available here.

0:34:34.640 --> 0:34:37.760
<v Speaker 1>And I think it takes an intermediary. It takes someone

0:34:37.800 --> 0:34:41.640
<v Speaker 1>who's operating as an advisor of some sort, who is

0:34:41.680 --> 0:34:44.600
<v Speaker 1>actually paying attention to risk and what their client is

0:34:44.640 --> 0:34:48.080
<v Speaker 1>saying they want to achieve over the next twenty years,

0:34:48.120 --> 0:34:51.680
<v Speaker 1>and it's prepared to spend some time on that and

0:34:51.840 --> 0:34:57.759
<v Speaker 1>actually incorporate hedged product or to modify the amount of

0:34:57.880 --> 0:35:00.600
<v Speaker 1>risk that their client is going to be set GEK two.

0:35:01.120 --> 0:35:05.320
<v Speaker 1>But for an individual investor to make these decisions around

0:35:05.440 --> 0:35:09.319
<v Speaker 1>the particularly the liquid product that is out there, I

0:35:09.360 --> 0:35:12.840
<v Speaker 1>think you need help. It's complicated. It is complex stuff.

0:35:13.239 --> 0:35:15.680
<v Speaker 1>And and before we run out of time, let's just

0:35:15.719 --> 0:35:18.160
<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit about what sort of stuff you're

0:35:18.160 --> 0:35:20.720
<v Speaker 1>seeing on the venture sides, because I know you're still

0:35:21.120 --> 0:35:24.560
<v Speaker 1>active in early stage investing. What's out there that's kind

0:35:24.560 --> 0:35:28.760
<v Speaker 1>of fascinating. Well, this may seem actually old now because

0:35:28.800 --> 0:35:31.080
<v Speaker 1>it's in the news, but I think three D printing

0:35:31.160 --> 0:35:34.680
<v Speaker 1>bringing three D printing down to the individual, where you

0:35:34.760 --> 0:35:37.600
<v Speaker 1>get to a device that costs you a two hundred

0:35:37.640 --> 0:35:41.480
<v Speaker 1>bucks and you can print out a lot of different

0:35:41.520 --> 0:35:44.399
<v Speaker 1>things based on what someone is coming to you. Three

0:35:44.480 --> 0:35:47.600
<v Speaker 1>D printing. We we've also I'm still involved in some

0:35:47.719 --> 0:35:51.880
<v Speaker 1>elements around climate change, not climate change specifically, but some

0:35:51.960 --> 0:35:56.200
<v Speaker 1>of the different ways to create or store energy. Moving

0:35:56.239 --> 0:35:59.440
<v Speaker 1>a little bit into the healthcare area, which I think

0:35:59.760 --> 0:36:04.000
<v Speaker 1>is such a need. You know you mentioned three D

0:36:04.080 --> 0:36:08.160
<v Speaker 1>printing and healthcare. I saw too fascinating stories on that.

0:36:08.840 --> 0:36:12.279
<v Speaker 1>One was a group of doctors in Europe that had

0:36:12.360 --> 0:36:16.279
<v Speaker 1>an inoperable tumor on a relatively young kid, and they

0:36:16.360 --> 0:36:18.399
<v Speaker 1>were able to take the m R I and CAT

0:36:18.480 --> 0:36:23.120
<v Speaker 1>scans of this tumor printed in three D so they

0:36:23.160 --> 0:36:26.720
<v Speaker 1>could see how the tumor was interfering with what veins

0:36:26.760 --> 0:36:31.759
<v Speaker 1>and what arteries, and and repeated practice surgeries in order

0:36:31.800 --> 0:36:35.680
<v Speaker 1>to get to it, and eventually they operate on this

0:36:35.760 --> 0:36:39.080
<v Speaker 1>inoperable tumor and save this boy's life. The other thing

0:36:39.080 --> 0:36:41.440
<v Speaker 1>which is astonishing that I was just reading about the

0:36:41.440 --> 0:36:47.080
<v Speaker 1>other day is using three D printing to print biological output,

0:36:47.600 --> 0:36:49.920
<v Speaker 1>so they could print part of a kidney or print

0:36:50.000 --> 0:36:54.640
<v Speaker 1>part of a That's astonishing, astonishing happening. And I've I've

0:36:54.640 --> 0:36:57.480
<v Speaker 1>actually been up to New York stem Cell Foundation and

0:36:57.520 --> 0:37:00.920
<v Speaker 1>they're they're printing bones, but they're printing bone that actually

0:37:01.200 --> 0:37:04.879
<v Speaker 1>have you know, veins running through them. You're actually it's

0:37:04.920 --> 0:37:09.560
<v Speaker 1>not a dead piece of calcium. It's an actual bone,

0:37:09.640 --> 0:37:14.200
<v Speaker 1>a growing, living, living, a living bone. Thank you Jack

0:37:14.239 --> 0:37:16.240
<v Speaker 1>for spending so much time with us. We've been speaking

0:37:16.239 --> 0:37:19.640
<v Speaker 1>with Jack Rivkin, managing director at Altegris. Be sure and

0:37:19.719 --> 0:37:22.640
<v Speaker 1>check out our podcast extras where we continue the conversation

0:37:23.040 --> 0:37:26.920
<v Speaker 1>you could see that at Bloomberg dot com or at iTunes.

0:37:27.320 --> 0:37:30.360
<v Speaker 1>Check out all of our past conversations are archived at

0:37:30.440 --> 0:37:34.480
<v Speaker 1>both those locations, or follow me on Twitter at Ridholts.

0:37:34.600 --> 0:37:37.759
<v Speaker 1>I'm Barry Rihults. You're listening to Masters in Business on

0:37:37.920 --> 0:37:43.080
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. This is Barry Ridholts, and this is our

0:37:43.160 --> 0:37:48.720
<v Speaker 1>Masters in Business weekly series where I find some very smart,

0:37:48.880 --> 0:37:54.560
<v Speaker 1>influential person who's work and ideas have really dramatically influenced

0:37:54.600 --> 0:37:59.280
<v Speaker 1>the market, uh or society or business over the past

0:37:59.280 --> 0:38:02.520
<v Speaker 1>few years. And today I'm thrilled to have my friend

0:38:02.560 --> 0:38:06.520
<v Speaker 1>and fishing buddy Jack Rivkin, who's now with Altegris. And

0:38:06.600 --> 0:38:09.120
<v Speaker 1>if you listen to the early part of the show,

0:38:09.719 --> 0:38:12.200
<v Speaker 1>pretty much couldn't hold the job and just kicked around

0:38:12.840 --> 0:38:16.400
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street, from Lehman to City to pain Webber to

0:38:16.520 --> 0:38:20.000
<v Speaker 1>new Berger and Burnman. Eventually somebody was nice and took

0:38:20.040 --> 0:38:22.479
<v Speaker 1>him in. And you know, it's really funny that that

0:38:22.880 --> 0:38:26.359
<v Speaker 1>the story I told early on. You know, I just

0:38:26.440 --> 0:38:29.960
<v Speaker 1>realized exactly John Maulden introduced us. That's that's what That's

0:38:29.960 --> 0:38:32.840
<v Speaker 1>how we met at a dinner that John was in

0:38:32.920 --> 0:38:38.080
<v Speaker 1>town for and I remember having a conversation you and

0:38:38.160 --> 0:38:41.279
<v Speaker 1>I briefly talked about fishing. I had a conversation. It

0:38:41.360 --> 0:38:44.120
<v Speaker 1>might have been David Kotok said, I met a guy

0:38:44.320 --> 0:38:47.760
<v Speaker 1>very interested, Jack Rifken, fisherman. Oh you met Jack Rivkin,

0:38:48.440 --> 0:38:51.360
<v Speaker 1>And uh yeah, I just told you. She goes you

0:38:51.440 --> 0:38:55.440
<v Speaker 1>know who Jack Rivkin is, right, some guy. I just no, No,

0:38:55.520 --> 0:38:59.720
<v Speaker 1>you don't understand. You go he's the one. Go Google.

0:39:00.920 --> 0:39:03.800
<v Speaker 1>So I google you, and holy cow, look at this. Wow,

0:39:03.880 --> 0:39:07.720
<v Speaker 1>this guy has worked everywhere. The Harvard Business case study

0:39:07.800 --> 0:39:10.239
<v Speaker 1>comes up, which is, oh, that's the first time that's

0:39:10.280 --> 0:39:13.040
<v Speaker 1>ever happened. And Ko Talk is another one who's a

0:39:13.120 --> 0:39:15.880
<v Speaker 1>huge fisherman. I put you two guys in touch and

0:39:15.920 --> 0:39:18.960
<v Speaker 1>we ended up we're fishing as much as we can.

0:39:19.560 --> 0:39:21.399
<v Speaker 1>Not as much as I would like, but as much

0:39:21.440 --> 0:39:24.560
<v Speaker 1>as we can. It isn't so every year Ko Talk

0:39:24.640 --> 0:39:29.280
<v Speaker 1>host the it's called the Shadow Federal Reserve UM fishing Trip.

0:39:29.360 --> 0:39:32.560
<v Speaker 1>We're informally known as Camp ko Talk. And this is

0:39:32.640 --> 0:39:35.520
<v Speaker 1>up in the wilds of Maine and it's just God's country.

0:39:35.520 --> 0:39:38.680
<v Speaker 1>It's as gorgeous an area. Every time I'm sitting in

0:39:38.719 --> 0:39:41.600
<v Speaker 1>a canoe on a lake there and you just look around, geez,

0:39:41.680 --> 0:39:44.719
<v Speaker 1>this is there's nobody around from miles You're in the

0:39:44.760 --> 0:39:48.960
<v Speaker 1>middle of this pristine like people don't even think that

0:39:49.080 --> 0:39:53.240
<v Speaker 1>sort of stuff is left anymore. That's it's just incredible.

0:39:53.680 --> 0:39:56.440
<v Speaker 1>And a lot of the guys who go there actually

0:39:56.960 --> 0:39:59.520
<v Speaker 1>work with some of the nature conservancy to keep that

0:39:59.640 --> 0:40:04.200
<v Speaker 1>land absolutely wild and pristine, and there's just they ain't

0:40:04.200 --> 0:40:06.640
<v Speaker 1>making any more of it, and there's less and less

0:40:06.719 --> 0:40:10.080
<v Speaker 1>of it all the time. It's really quite amazing. So

0:40:10.200 --> 0:40:14.080
<v Speaker 1>so that's how we met um. And you do a

0:40:14.160 --> 0:40:16.640
<v Speaker 1>lot of fly fishing, don't you. I do what my

0:40:16.640 --> 0:40:18.839
<v Speaker 1>My father put a fly rod in my hand when

0:40:18.840 --> 0:40:21.680
<v Speaker 1>I was five years old, and now it had a

0:40:21.719 --> 0:40:24.920
<v Speaker 1>hook with a worm on the hook, but it was

0:40:24.960 --> 0:40:27.359
<v Speaker 1>still a fly rod. It was still a fly rod,

0:40:27.480 --> 0:40:30.920
<v Speaker 1>and at five that's what you needed if you're actually

0:40:30.920 --> 0:40:34.560
<v Speaker 1>going to catch a fish. But from then on that's

0:40:34.680 --> 0:40:37.680
<v Speaker 1>what I've done. That's my sport. So it's funny because

0:40:37.719 --> 0:40:40.800
<v Speaker 1>I was never a fly fisherman, but as a kid,

0:40:40.920 --> 0:40:44.279
<v Speaker 1>we used to spend our summer's upstate New York and

0:40:44.320 --> 0:40:47.160
<v Speaker 1>back in the day when there wasn't air conditioning everywhere.

0:40:47.520 --> 0:40:50.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm old enough to growing up where there was in

0:40:50.760 --> 0:40:54.040
<v Speaker 1>central air in everybody's house, so he would work during

0:40:54.040 --> 0:40:55.920
<v Speaker 1>the week and come up Thursday night and spend the

0:40:55.920 --> 0:40:58.360
<v Speaker 1>whole weekend with us and then go back down. So

0:40:58.400 --> 0:41:01.560
<v Speaker 1>it's three day weekends over the sun and same thing.

0:41:01.680 --> 0:41:04.200
<v Speaker 1>I recall getting up at four thirty five o'clock in

0:41:04.239 --> 0:41:08.400
<v Speaker 1>the morning, driving to the Liberty Diner for breakfast, and

0:41:08.440 --> 0:41:11.160
<v Speaker 1>then we're on the lake at six six thirty and

0:41:11.200 --> 0:41:13.640
<v Speaker 1>it was either Swan Lake or one of his other

0:41:13.760 --> 0:41:17.279
<v Speaker 1>lakes upstate. And as a kid, that's what you did. Well,

0:41:17.360 --> 0:41:20.440
<v Speaker 1>that's that's what I did, except it was Lake Spavanaugh

0:41:20.640 --> 0:41:24.560
<v Speaker 1>and Spring Creek right outside of Tulsa, and we get

0:41:24.640 --> 0:41:27.160
<v Speaker 1>up early, we'd find someplace to add breakfast, and then

0:41:27.239 --> 0:41:29.960
<v Speaker 1>we were on the water. There's nothing like that. And

0:41:30.000 --> 0:41:33.719
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's funny because there are always these life

0:41:33.760 --> 0:41:37.920
<v Speaker 1>lessons to be learned, and if you're fishing, the lesson

0:41:37.960 --> 0:41:41.879
<v Speaker 1>you learn is patients patients, which certainly doesn't hurt as

0:41:41.920 --> 0:41:46.360
<v Speaker 1>an investor to have. And I'm not a naturally patient person,

0:41:46.760 --> 0:41:49.400
<v Speaker 1>so that was a little bit of struggle learning to

0:41:49.480 --> 0:41:53.120
<v Speaker 1>have that. But what what sort of life lessons did

0:41:53.120 --> 0:42:00.480
<v Speaker 1>you take from Tulsa, Oklahoma. Well, one was that, um,

0:42:00.560 --> 0:42:05.399
<v Speaker 1>you don't learn much when your mouth is open. So

0:42:05.600 --> 0:42:09.040
<v Speaker 1>I did a lot of listening. And my father and

0:42:09.080 --> 0:42:12.640
<v Speaker 1>actually my grandfather encouraged that they were both photographers. They

0:42:12.640 --> 0:42:15.839
<v Speaker 1>made their livings as photographers, so they were and they

0:42:15.840 --> 0:42:20.680
<v Speaker 1>were photographing nature, but they were photographing human nature as well,

0:42:20.800 --> 0:42:25.799
<v Speaker 1>weddings and you name it. And uh. I used to

0:42:25.840 --> 0:42:28.680
<v Speaker 1>love going into my father's when he was in the

0:42:28.760 --> 0:42:32.400
<v Speaker 1>dark room and the smell of hypo and sitting there

0:42:32.480 --> 0:42:38.960
<v Speaker 1>quietly while he was creating these phenomenal things that there

0:42:39.000 --> 0:42:41.880
<v Speaker 1>were blank sheets and then suddenly there was a picture

0:42:41.920 --> 0:42:44.480
<v Speaker 1>there that was that was what I saw, And there

0:42:44.520 --> 0:42:48.480
<v Speaker 1>was a lot of patients and silence associated that, and

0:42:48.520 --> 0:42:51.120
<v Speaker 1>then when you said something it tended to be a

0:42:51.120 --> 0:42:55.080
<v Speaker 1>little bit more profound. Yeah. I I learned the patients

0:42:55.160 --> 0:42:57.799
<v Speaker 1>side of things over time. It took a while to

0:42:57.880 --> 0:43:00.759
<v Speaker 1>learn that the keeping a mouth shut. I still don't

0:43:00.800 --> 0:43:04.759
<v Speaker 1>have that. I'm working on it. Um. So let's talk

0:43:04.800 --> 0:43:06.880
<v Speaker 1>a little bit about some of the things we didn't

0:43:06.880 --> 0:43:11.720
<v Speaker 1>get to during the broadcast segment. So Dick Fault pretty

0:43:11.760 --> 0:43:14.480
<v Speaker 1>much fired you. Yes he was in the room you

0:43:14.480 --> 0:43:17.719
<v Speaker 1>you politely said, but he was known for sitting in

0:43:17.719 --> 0:43:20.160
<v Speaker 1>the corner and having his henchmen do his bidding. That

0:43:20.280 --> 0:43:22.839
<v Speaker 1>wasn't well. I guess if you need me there, I'll

0:43:22.880 --> 0:43:25.759
<v Speaker 1>be there. But essentially it was between you and the

0:43:25.760 --> 0:43:28.280
<v Speaker 1>head of fixed income, and Dick said, we're a fixed

0:43:28.320 --> 0:43:30.560
<v Speaker 1>incomes to the shop. This guy Jack has to go.

0:43:31.160 --> 0:43:33.120
<v Speaker 1>If it's between the two of you, I'll choose you.

0:43:33.200 --> 0:43:36.000
<v Speaker 1>And he's gone, right, And and this was a guy

0:43:36.080 --> 0:43:39.760
<v Speaker 1>that he'd worked with at the old Lehman for lots

0:43:39.800 --> 0:43:42.239
<v Speaker 1>of years and had they had done a very good

0:43:42.320 --> 0:43:44.759
<v Speaker 1>job on the fixed income side. They had built quite

0:43:44.760 --> 0:43:48.200
<v Speaker 1>an operation there and there one of the biggest fixed

0:43:48.200 --> 0:43:52.120
<v Speaker 1>income shops they were and and commercial paper that was

0:43:52.320 --> 0:43:54.480
<v Speaker 1>that was where all of this group that was now

0:43:54.560 --> 0:43:59.600
<v Speaker 1>running fixed income and Lehman came from. And that was

0:43:59.640 --> 0:44:02.440
<v Speaker 1>sort of the end of it. But I I continued

0:44:02.560 --> 0:44:05.759
<v Speaker 1>to actually get along with Dick. And the next time

0:44:05.800 --> 0:44:08.719
<v Speaker 1>I ran into him, I had joined the Economic Club

0:44:08.760 --> 0:44:10.920
<v Speaker 1>of New York and I was on the membership committee

0:44:11.120 --> 0:44:14.560
<v Speaker 1>and he applied for membership, and so I called him.

0:44:14.600 --> 0:44:19.680
<v Speaker 1>I was so sorry. It was great, but that's not

0:44:19.719 --> 0:44:23.240
<v Speaker 1>what happened. I called him up and and he returned

0:44:23.280 --> 0:44:26.759
<v Speaker 1>the call. He called back and I said, Dick, I

0:44:26.800 --> 0:44:29.799
<v Speaker 1>see you've applied for the Economic Club of New York

0:44:29.840 --> 0:44:32.560
<v Speaker 1>and I'm on the membership committee, and I said, my

0:44:32.719 --> 0:44:35.560
<v Speaker 1>job is to make sure that you can spell economics.

0:44:36.440 --> 0:44:40.319
<v Speaker 1>And he laughed and said, he said, I'll never I'll

0:44:40.360 --> 0:44:45.320
<v Speaker 1>never forget how you handled yourself when we made that mistake.

0:44:46.480 --> 0:44:49.440
<v Speaker 1>That's what he said. Really, that's a very nice I mean,

0:44:49.440 --> 0:44:52.239
<v Speaker 1>it was it was pretty clear. Look, you know, not

0:44:52.400 --> 0:44:55.359
<v Speaker 1>everybody figures that out. It took me till I was,

0:44:56.040 --> 0:44:59.200
<v Speaker 1>I want to say, mid forties to learn, hey, when

0:44:59.239 --> 0:45:02.000
<v Speaker 1>you leave, and if you were leaving on your own terms,

0:45:02.560 --> 0:45:07.160
<v Speaker 1>how you exit and exit gracefully really leaves a taste

0:45:07.160 --> 0:45:10.400
<v Speaker 1>in people's mouths. And you know, the past few places

0:45:10.440 --> 0:45:14.399
<v Speaker 1>I've left, I've actually learned that lesson that. I think

0:45:14.400 --> 0:45:16.919
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people learned much younger than me. But

0:45:17.040 --> 0:45:19.839
<v Speaker 1>it's it's always nice when someone says something like that

0:45:19.920 --> 0:45:22.280
<v Speaker 1>and said, it was very nice. You were a gentleman,

0:45:22.320 --> 0:45:25.640
<v Speaker 1>and we appreciate it was very nice. And then subsequently

0:45:25.840 --> 0:45:29.319
<v Speaker 1>I was at New Burger and who comes knocking on

0:45:29.360 --> 0:45:33.200
<v Speaker 1>the door but Lehman, and it was he was there,

0:45:33.280 --> 0:45:37.520
<v Speaker 1>and and again I talked to Joe Gregory and all

0:45:37.520 --> 0:45:40.000
<v Speaker 1>those guys, and they said, you know, I hope you've

0:45:40.000 --> 0:45:43.120
<v Speaker 1>got no hard feelings. You know, let's let's make a

0:45:43.120 --> 0:45:46.480
<v Speaker 1>go of this. And obviously you gave the thumbs up

0:45:46.520 --> 0:45:49.080
<v Speaker 1>to you know, if you were a vindictive character, you

0:45:49.120 --> 0:45:52.920
<v Speaker 1>would have submarined his Economics Club of New York membership,

0:45:53.480 --> 0:45:57.240
<v Speaker 1>and they had to know that you were not harboring

0:45:57.280 --> 0:45:59.879
<v Speaker 1>any will at that point. No, it was just one

0:45:59.880 --> 0:46:04.720
<v Speaker 1>of those sayings that that happened. It is a small street,

0:46:04.960 --> 0:46:10.200
<v Speaker 1>and it pays, it pays to actually makes realize that

0:46:10.239 --> 0:46:12.680
<v Speaker 1>it's a small street and there's no place to hide,

0:46:13.000 --> 0:46:17.400
<v Speaker 1>and there's always something that is good about of person.

0:46:17.440 --> 0:46:21.160
<v Speaker 1>Now maybe that comes from my Dale Carnegie sort of experience.

0:46:21.320 --> 0:46:23.360
<v Speaker 1>Your job as a manager to find the good and

0:46:23.440 --> 0:46:25.480
<v Speaker 1>bring it out and bring it out even the worst.

0:46:25.719 --> 0:46:29.359
<v Speaker 1>That's right. That's right. And Dick Fold was and is

0:46:29.400 --> 0:46:36.040
<v Speaker 1>he's still a real gentleman. He was a tough guy. Yeah,

0:46:36.120 --> 0:46:39.480
<v Speaker 1>but that's right. This is family radio, so I can't

0:46:39.560 --> 0:46:42.160
<v Speaker 1>use some of those phrases. But he had a reputation

0:46:42.200 --> 0:46:46.279
<v Speaker 1>of really, you know, bare knuckle no bs sort of

0:46:46.480 --> 0:46:48.200
<v Speaker 1>you don't want to be on the wrong side of him. No,

0:46:48.400 --> 0:46:50.040
<v Speaker 1>you did not want to be on the wrong side

0:46:50.040 --> 0:46:52.880
<v Speaker 1>of him. But frankly, I think with a lot of

0:46:52.960 --> 0:46:57.320
<v Speaker 1>CEOs that's the case. It makes it very difficult to

0:46:57.680 --> 0:47:02.040
<v Speaker 1>actually have large organization and move forward because there is

0:47:02.120 --> 0:47:04.600
<v Speaker 1>this fear. There is this fear, and there's also an

0:47:04.600 --> 0:47:08.239
<v Speaker 1>attitude I'm CEO, I'm in charge here. I have to

0:47:08.239 --> 0:47:11.839
<v Speaker 1>make decisions and I'm going to make them. But that's

0:47:11.840 --> 0:47:15.160
<v Speaker 1>a bottleneck. They lose something, to lose something because the

0:47:15.239 --> 0:47:18.160
<v Speaker 1>people instead of thinking about what they're doing is the

0:47:18.200 --> 0:47:21.880
<v Speaker 1>inverted pyramid where there at the bottom and they're supposed

0:47:21.920 --> 0:47:24.960
<v Speaker 1>to be supporting everybody working for them, as opposed to

0:47:25.000 --> 0:47:30.399
<v Speaker 1>at the top telling everybody what to do. I think

0:47:30.480 --> 0:47:33.239
<v Speaker 1>that's part of the problem with what's going on with

0:47:33.280 --> 0:47:36.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of companies in the country now. And I

0:47:36.120 --> 0:47:39.839
<v Speaker 1>would tell you that that sort of you know, when

0:47:39.840 --> 0:47:42.080
<v Speaker 1>you rule by fear a little bit, and I don't

0:47:42.080 --> 0:47:44.359
<v Speaker 1>want to say Lehman was ruled by fear, but when

0:47:44.400 --> 0:47:46.560
<v Speaker 1>you have that reputation of being a tough s O

0:47:46.680 --> 0:47:49.560
<v Speaker 1>B and no one wants to bring you bad news,

0:47:50.040 --> 0:47:54.320
<v Speaker 1>you end up surrounded by yes men. So I suspect

0:47:54.400 --> 0:47:56.800
<v Speaker 1>Lehman could have been saved a year or two before

0:47:56.800 --> 0:48:02.480
<v Speaker 1>it collapsed and people saw problems, but nobody wanted to either.

0:48:02.560 --> 0:48:05.000
<v Speaker 1>It wasn't in anybody's interest if I go and tell Dick,

0:48:05.040 --> 0:48:07.200
<v Speaker 1>this is going to collapse. And in fact, I think

0:48:07.239 --> 0:48:12.399
<v Speaker 1>the story was some mortgage backed analysts and Lehman said, hey,

0:48:12.440 --> 0:48:15.040
<v Speaker 1>we're sitting on all this paper. It's a disaster. We

0:48:15.080 --> 0:48:17.080
<v Speaker 1>have to deal with this, and ultimately he was fired.

0:48:17.640 --> 0:48:20.760
<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't. I don't know that that could be apocryphal,

0:48:20.800 --> 0:48:23.640
<v Speaker 1>but it could also be very true as well. And

0:48:23.680 --> 0:48:28.960
<v Speaker 1>you you come to believe your own stuff pr spines,

0:48:29.600 --> 0:48:32.520
<v Speaker 1>and again you're surrounding yourself by people who are people

0:48:32.560 --> 0:48:36.480
<v Speaker 1>are reinforcing that. Then you think we're going to get

0:48:36.520 --> 0:48:40.080
<v Speaker 1>through this, and historically Lehman got through some very tough

0:48:40.160 --> 0:48:45.000
<v Speaker 1>periods previously. You could make its right, that's right. So

0:48:45.160 --> 0:48:48.600
<v Speaker 1>you make a case that they actually went bankrupt a

0:48:48.600 --> 0:48:52.480
<v Speaker 1>few times before, but because of the way they pulled

0:48:52.520 --> 0:48:56.560
<v Speaker 1>together and somebody bailing him out, whether it was American

0:48:56.680 --> 0:48:59.839
<v Speaker 1>Express or actually in the ninety eight crisis, the FED

0:49:00.840 --> 0:49:04.600
<v Speaker 1>bailed everybody out, I mean long term capital management. But

0:49:04.719 --> 0:49:08.839
<v Speaker 1>I think they were one of the smaller exposed. Um

0:49:09.040 --> 0:49:11.719
<v Speaker 1>they were. I don't think it was potentially fatal in them,

0:49:11.760 --> 0:49:14.080
<v Speaker 1>but it was, but they were, they were leveraged, they

0:49:14.080 --> 0:49:16.880
<v Speaker 1>were as leveraged then as a as a broker dealer

0:49:16.960 --> 0:49:20.839
<v Speaker 1>as they were when the end finally came as well.

0:49:21.000 --> 0:49:23.520
<v Speaker 1>I think by the time we rolled around to oh

0:49:23.560 --> 0:49:27.440
<v Speaker 1>six oh seven, because of that last five years, the

0:49:27.520 --> 0:49:30.479
<v Speaker 1>leverage just ran out of control from across the board

0:49:30.840 --> 0:49:34.440
<v Speaker 1>six and they were, you know, it was across the board,

0:49:34.480 --> 0:49:38.319
<v Speaker 1>but they were so heavily in the commercial paper and

0:49:38.360 --> 0:49:42.000
<v Speaker 1>the mortgage back area that they were at ground zero.

0:49:42.200 --> 0:49:45.520
<v Speaker 1>You know, it wasn't just people misunderstand People seemed to

0:49:45.560 --> 0:49:49.080
<v Speaker 1>think that Lehman Brothers fell and then all the dominoes

0:49:49.640 --> 0:49:52.640
<v Speaker 1>went after it. I'm fond of saying, you know, Lehman

0:49:52.800 --> 0:49:56.200
<v Speaker 1>was the first trailer in the trailer park that the

0:49:56.239 --> 0:49:59.480
<v Speaker 1>tornado came through. But it was gonna take everybody else.

0:49:59.480 --> 0:50:02.480
<v Speaker 1>It was gonna take everybody, wasn't It wasn't But for

0:50:02.640 --> 0:50:05.440
<v Speaker 1>if we only save Lehman, everything would have been fine.

0:50:05.800 --> 0:50:08.560
<v Speaker 1>They were all going down. They were all heavily exposed,

0:50:08.680 --> 0:50:10.720
<v Speaker 1>they were all heavily leveraged. They all had a huge

0:50:11.480 --> 0:50:16.000
<v Speaker 1>derivative bet on housing, which when sour, Lehman just it

0:50:16.160 --> 0:50:18.880
<v Speaker 1>was such a big focus of their business. In fact,

0:50:19.400 --> 0:50:24.120
<v Speaker 1>when Bear Sterns wobbles, when Bear Sterns had its problem

0:50:24.200 --> 0:50:27.880
<v Speaker 1>in March of oh eight. Lehman Brothers immediately got hit

0:50:27.960 --> 0:50:31.160
<v Speaker 1>afterwards because it didn't take a lot of traders a

0:50:31.160 --> 0:50:33.640
<v Speaker 1>whole lot of brain power to say, hey, who looks

0:50:33.680 --> 0:50:36.720
<v Speaker 1>the most like bad, who's got a lot of fixed income,

0:50:36.719 --> 0:50:39.320
<v Speaker 1>who's got a lot of mortgage exposure, and who doesn't

0:50:39.320 --> 0:50:42.600
<v Speaker 1>have a lot of other bigger departments that could subsidize

0:50:42.680 --> 0:50:45.400
<v Speaker 1>that if if need be. And they were the obvious

0:50:45.440 --> 0:50:47.759
<v Speaker 1>they were, There were the obvious ones, and I I

0:50:48.200 --> 0:50:51.120
<v Speaker 1>don't think that it was realized by Treasury and the

0:50:51.200 --> 0:50:55.360
<v Speaker 1>Fed of their importance in the short term in the

0:50:55.400 --> 0:50:58.520
<v Speaker 1>commercial paper market as well in the short term paper.

0:50:58.680 --> 0:51:01.920
<v Speaker 1>That's right, And and once Bear and Lehman were no

0:51:02.000 --> 0:51:05.680
<v Speaker 1>longer you lost a huge amount of liquidity that was

0:51:05.960 --> 0:51:10.080
<v Speaker 1>used to fund Corporate America. There's an argument to be made, Hey,

0:51:10.120 --> 0:51:13.280
<v Speaker 1>why are you rolling over six month paper to fund

0:51:13.400 --> 0:51:17.520
<v Speaker 1>five and ten year obligations. That's a different conversation, and

0:51:17.520 --> 0:51:21.040
<v Speaker 1>that's that's that gets to the FED. That gets to Okay,

0:51:21.080 --> 0:51:23.840
<v Speaker 1>do I have a put here or not? Is the

0:51:24.040 --> 0:51:27.560
<v Speaker 1>is the FED going to allow this to happen? And

0:51:28.120 --> 0:51:32.680
<v Speaker 1>that introduces moral hazarded, introduces all kinds of things. There's

0:51:32.719 --> 0:51:35.839
<v Speaker 1>an argument that the FED really didn't and let's talk

0:51:35.880 --> 0:51:38.479
<v Speaker 1>about the FED, but there's an argument that the FED

0:51:38.560 --> 0:51:41.320
<v Speaker 1>really didn't have a lot of jurisdiction over Baron Lehman

0:51:41.760 --> 0:51:46.600
<v Speaker 1>and wall Street. There we're really supervising City and Bank

0:51:46.640 --> 0:51:51.560
<v Speaker 1>America and Wells Fargoing and all the other depository banks

0:51:51.560 --> 0:51:54.399
<v Speaker 1>that would go to the discount window to borrow from

0:51:54.400 --> 0:51:58.520
<v Speaker 1>the Fed. But the bear Stearns and Merrill Lynches really

0:51:58.800 --> 0:52:02.040
<v Speaker 1>weren't banks, then, No, they weren't banks, but they were.

0:52:02.560 --> 0:52:06.600
<v Speaker 1>They were. There was the shadow making at that time

0:52:06.640 --> 0:52:10.440
<v Speaker 1>as well, and they were They were doing everything and

0:52:10.480 --> 0:52:14.120
<v Speaker 1>more that the banks were doing, and they were not

0:52:14.600 --> 0:52:17.279
<v Speaker 1>being watched. So they were doing what the banks were doing,

0:52:17.320 --> 0:52:20.520
<v Speaker 1>but they were doing with more leverage and less regulation

0:52:20.560 --> 0:52:24.640
<v Speaker 1>and less supervision. Well, how could that possibly go wrong? Yeah,

0:52:24.840 --> 0:52:28.239
<v Speaker 1>that's right. I'm sure that self regulation works. Great, I'm

0:52:28.239 --> 0:52:31.000
<v Speaker 1>sure that'll be fine. You could make a case though,

0:52:31.239 --> 0:52:37.160
<v Speaker 1>that if Lehman hadn't gone, would the Fed and would

0:52:37.200 --> 0:52:41.680
<v Speaker 1>Treasury have had the degrees of freedom that they had

0:52:42.320 --> 0:52:47.000
<v Speaker 1>to bail people out to rack actually put money to work.

0:52:47.160 --> 0:52:50.120
<v Speaker 1>Did it have to get to to get dead enough

0:52:50.320 --> 0:52:56.040
<v Speaker 1>for them to so yeah, so let's let's talk a

0:52:56.080 --> 0:52:58.600
<v Speaker 1>little bit about the bailouts and about what the FEDS

0:52:58.640 --> 0:53:02.480
<v Speaker 1>reaction has been. The most of the bailouts we can

0:53:02.600 --> 0:53:05.719
<v Speaker 1>place at the footstep of Treasury, but you know, the

0:53:05.800 --> 0:53:08.840
<v Speaker 1>FED facilitated the bail out of long term Capital Management,

0:53:10.280 --> 0:53:15.200
<v Speaker 1>which Roger Lowenstein very famously said, if only banks had

0:53:15.200 --> 0:53:19.560
<v Speaker 1>been reintroduced to the concept of bad loans biting them

0:53:19.640 --> 0:53:23.279
<v Speaker 1>instead of oh, look we managed to trade away out

0:53:23.280 --> 0:53:28.120
<v Speaker 1>of this. That was. And then we look at um,

0:53:28.239 --> 0:53:34.320
<v Speaker 1>the bailout of essentially facilitating JP Morgan's purchase of bear Sterns.

0:53:35.000 --> 0:53:37.799
<v Speaker 1>Without the twenty nine billion dollar guarantee the FED, that

0:53:37.920 --> 0:53:42.560
<v Speaker 1>theoretically wouldn't have happened. Although my pet thesis is the

0:53:42.600 --> 0:53:47.520
<v Speaker 1>biggest counterparty exposure to bear Sterns derivative book was JP Morgan.

0:53:48.400 --> 0:53:51.200
<v Speaker 1>And if Ben Bernanci was a better poker player, he

0:53:51.239 --> 0:53:53.799
<v Speaker 1>could have gone to Jamie Diamond and said, hey, listen,

0:53:53.880 --> 0:53:56.000
<v Speaker 1>I know you want thirty billion dollars, but here's what

0:53:56.040 --> 0:53:57.880
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna do. We're not going to give you a dime,

0:53:58.440 --> 0:54:01.839
<v Speaker 1>and if you're smart, you'll do this because if they

0:54:01.880 --> 0:54:04.640
<v Speaker 1>blow up, they're going to take you down. And the

0:54:04.719 --> 0:54:06.799
<v Speaker 1>next time you have this conversation, both of us will

0:54:06.800 --> 0:54:09.120
<v Speaker 1>be in front of Congress with a right hand raise.

0:54:09.200 --> 0:54:12.279
<v Speaker 1>Then I'll be recounting this conversation and when we're done,

0:54:12.280 --> 0:54:15.120
<v Speaker 1>they'll take you off in shackles. Well, but I think

0:54:15.239 --> 0:54:18.680
<v Speaker 1>the reason he didn't do that because he was he

0:54:18.800 --> 0:54:23.560
<v Speaker 1>was afraid. This is a supposition that his job was

0:54:23.600 --> 0:54:27.840
<v Speaker 1>at risk as well. If burn Aki said we're not

0:54:27.960 --> 0:54:31.719
<v Speaker 1>doing this, We're gonna let something bad happen here. Hey,

0:54:31.719 --> 0:54:34.279
<v Speaker 1>you guys made a bad loan, It's on you. Yeah,

0:54:34.400 --> 0:54:37.040
<v Speaker 1>but who are they going to look to? Who is

0:54:37.080 --> 0:54:39.719
<v Speaker 1>Congress going to look to? And the FED is is

0:54:39.840 --> 0:54:43.919
<v Speaker 1>always and continues to be concerned about who actually has

0:54:44.000 --> 0:54:48.680
<v Speaker 1>oversight of what they're doing, and they don't want more oversight.

0:54:49.360 --> 0:54:51.920
<v Speaker 1>So some of what they do and some of what

0:54:52.040 --> 0:54:56.439
<v Speaker 1>they've done here is job preservation in my view. So

0:54:56.719 --> 0:54:59.320
<v Speaker 1>the FED doesn't want to be bailing people out because

0:54:59.360 --> 0:55:03.120
<v Speaker 1>they don't want responsibility for why are we involved with

0:55:03.160 --> 0:55:06.600
<v Speaker 1>an insurance company. We're supposed to be regulating banks. Why

0:55:06.680 --> 0:55:10.879
<v Speaker 1>is the Federal Reserve participating in the Baila you're saying

0:55:10.920 --> 0:55:12.480
<v Speaker 1>they don't want to do that. They want to stick

0:55:12.520 --> 0:55:15.839
<v Speaker 1>to their knitting worry about banks and and everybody else

0:55:15.880 --> 0:55:19.319
<v Speaker 1>can worry about their own thing. Well, the problem is

0:55:19.400 --> 0:55:24.200
<v Speaker 1>they can't do that because no matter people look to

0:55:24.280 --> 0:55:28.160
<v Speaker 1>the FED, whatever goes wrong financially, it ultimately comes back

0:55:28.200 --> 0:55:31.279
<v Speaker 1>to the Fed, and certainly out of Congress and out

0:55:31.320 --> 0:55:34.680
<v Speaker 1>of the administration as well. It's not our fault. It's

0:55:34.760 --> 0:55:37.160
<v Speaker 1>because the Fed didn't do the thing that they were

0:55:37.200 --> 0:55:40.760
<v Speaker 1>supposed to do. The FED didn't pack our parachute correctly,

0:55:40.800 --> 0:55:44.080
<v Speaker 1>and that's why. That's it. So people have been pretty

0:55:44.080 --> 0:55:47.920
<v Speaker 1>critical of Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve in general,

0:55:48.280 --> 0:55:52.000
<v Speaker 1>but you've been pretty supportive of saying, hey, you guys

0:55:52.080 --> 0:55:55.640
<v Speaker 1>may not love what was done, but think about the alternative.

0:55:55.719 --> 0:55:58.560
<v Speaker 1>That's it. It is think about the alternative, and it's

0:55:58.600 --> 0:56:04.720
<v Speaker 1>think about an unwillingness to take the risk of the alternative.

0:56:04.960 --> 0:56:07.879
<v Speaker 1>So what they did, some people don't like, and they

0:56:07.960 --> 0:56:10.879
<v Speaker 1>wonder if it's actually done any good at all. So

0:56:10.880 --> 0:56:16.919
<v Speaker 1>so let's get let's get really specific. So October oh eight,

0:56:17.280 --> 0:56:21.719
<v Speaker 1>Congress doesn't pass the TARP program, and the markets have

0:56:21.880 --> 0:56:25.440
<v Speaker 1>their worst week ever on a on a point basis

0:56:25.800 --> 0:56:28.239
<v Speaker 1>and a percentage basis, one of the worst weeks ever,

0:56:28.920 --> 0:56:33.799
<v Speaker 1>and ultimately the Treasury passes TARP and then the FED

0:56:33.920 --> 0:56:38.520
<v Speaker 1>begins a number of liquidity programs to thaw out the

0:56:38.600 --> 0:56:41.239
<v Speaker 1>frozen credit markets. You know, when you have the head

0:56:41.280 --> 0:56:45.560
<v Speaker 1>of McDonald's and ge and Ford calling the White House

0:56:45.600 --> 0:56:48.280
<v Speaker 1>and say, hey, I'm not gonna make payroll next month,

0:56:48.680 --> 0:56:52.120
<v Speaker 1>not because we don't have the cash, but the cash

0:56:52.120 --> 0:56:55.520
<v Speaker 1>flow is gone. There's there's everything is frozen solid. The

0:56:55.760 --> 0:56:59.680
<v Speaker 1>normal flow of capital is completely disrupted. You gotta do

0:56:59.800 --> 0:57:03.279
<v Speaker 1>something and who who was going to do it? So

0:57:03.600 --> 0:57:07.359
<v Speaker 1>the White House calls the Paulson calls Bernanke and said, hey,

0:57:07.400 --> 0:57:10.799
<v Speaker 1>we have real trouble. What can we do to fix this?

0:57:12.040 --> 0:57:15.280
<v Speaker 1>And and they have to respond. They have the response

0:57:15.320 --> 0:57:19.000
<v Speaker 1>they have no choice, and and they've made the argument

0:57:19.080 --> 0:57:21.720
<v Speaker 1>and it may be valid that they've had no choice

0:57:21.840 --> 0:57:24.959
<v Speaker 1>all the way along here that QUI was not enough,

0:57:25.640 --> 0:57:28.680
<v Speaker 1>they had to go to QUE two was not enough,

0:57:28.720 --> 0:57:31.480
<v Speaker 1>they had to go to que three. And now we're

0:57:31.520 --> 0:57:34.920
<v Speaker 1>they do believe now, I think at least they have

0:57:35.120 --> 0:57:38.160
<v Speaker 1>until we've had all these problems in Europe, and we

0:57:38.200 --> 0:57:40.480
<v Speaker 1>can talk about that a little bit. Let's let's talk

0:57:40.480 --> 0:57:43.920
<v Speaker 1>about that. So so before before we leave the FED,

0:57:44.480 --> 0:57:46.919
<v Speaker 1>you know, the complaint is so now we have QUI

0:57:47.080 --> 0:57:49.560
<v Speaker 1>four and every time the market is a is he

0:57:49.640 --> 0:57:53.720
<v Speaker 1>fit and drops were not even down ten percent. Now

0:57:53.760 --> 0:57:56.000
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna have QUE five and QUE six and kwe

0:57:56.120 --> 0:57:59.600
<v Speaker 1>and finley, are we on a permanent state of QI? Now?

0:57:59.600 --> 0:58:03.680
<v Speaker 1>I don't leave that. I think eventually the Fed just

0:58:03.800 --> 0:58:06.640
<v Speaker 1>lets these you know, the average duration of seven years.

0:58:06.640 --> 0:58:10.120
<v Speaker 1>You just let it roll off. You eventually get money

0:58:10.160 --> 0:58:12.120
<v Speaker 1>back for the bonds, and they turn it over to

0:58:12.160 --> 0:58:15.760
<v Speaker 1>Treasury and everybody is is happy and goes on their way.

0:58:15.800 --> 0:58:18.920
<v Speaker 1>So it's not like, how are we going to get

0:58:18.920 --> 0:58:21.080
<v Speaker 1>out of this? Well, you let seven years go by,

0:58:21.080 --> 0:58:24.520
<v Speaker 1>and that's that's right, and you get out of a

0:58:24.560 --> 0:58:28.440
<v Speaker 1>lot of it here. And in the meantime some evidence

0:58:28.560 --> 0:58:32.640
<v Speaker 1>that the economy is doing okay, not doing great, but

0:58:33.240 --> 0:58:35.640
<v Speaker 1>maybe it's in a period where there's a little more

0:58:35.680 --> 0:58:40.440
<v Speaker 1>opportunity for self sustaining. But the Fed is also sitting

0:58:40.520 --> 0:58:45.920
<v Speaker 1>there truly believing that they're it. It's certainly not Congress, right, Well,

0:58:45.920 --> 0:58:48.800
<v Speaker 1>that's not administration. That's the other thing is when you

0:58:48.840 --> 0:58:52.600
<v Speaker 1>have a Congress that refuses to do what Congress normally does,

0:58:53.280 --> 0:58:58.280
<v Speaker 1>which is, look if if if this current administration had

0:58:58.320 --> 0:59:02.040
<v Speaker 1>the same sort of fiscal not monetary, but fiscal stimulus

0:59:02.400 --> 0:59:06.320
<v Speaker 1>as the previous administration. This would be a much healthier

0:59:06.360 --> 0:59:12.760
<v Speaker 1>economy use higher employment, higher wages, lower unemployment, and GDP

0:59:12.920 --> 0:59:15.600
<v Speaker 1>would probably be a full percent higher than where it was.

0:59:16.360 --> 0:59:18.600
<v Speaker 1>It would be In the meantime, the FED is having

0:59:18.640 --> 0:59:22.880
<v Speaker 1>to deal looking at the employment numbers, and the employment

0:59:22.960 --> 0:59:27.160
<v Speaker 1>numbers to extend people say they're not good are driven

0:59:27.200 --> 0:59:30.400
<v Speaker 1>by the sixteen to twenty four year olds. That's where

0:59:30.440 --> 0:59:33.440
<v Speaker 1>the unemployment is high. You know, sixteen and the nineteen

0:59:33.480 --> 0:59:36.920
<v Speaker 1>it's it's pretty high for the twenty to twenty four

0:59:37.000 --> 0:59:40.800
<v Speaker 1>year olds as well. And and is it really the

0:59:40.840 --> 0:59:49.000
<v Speaker 1>Fed's responsibility to have a policy that actually allows you

0:59:49.040 --> 0:59:53.360
<v Speaker 1>to employ teenagers and the under educated or is that

0:59:53.480 --> 0:59:56.720
<v Speaker 1>somebody else's responsibility. I don't think it's the FED. Most

0:59:56.720 --> 1:00:01.280
<v Speaker 1>people would say it's Congress's responsibility. So the next question is, so,

1:00:01.320 --> 1:00:06.960
<v Speaker 1>here's the fascinating counter argument. If the FED did less,

1:00:07.760 --> 1:00:10.640
<v Speaker 1>then the economy would be worse. We'd slip into a

1:00:10.680 --> 1:00:14.760
<v Speaker 1>recession and all the people who are refusing to participate

1:00:15.240 --> 1:00:19.080
<v Speaker 1>in the normal economic state stimulus get tossed out of

1:00:19.080 --> 1:00:22.280
<v Speaker 1>office and a new crop comes in. But instead the

1:00:22.800 --> 1:00:26.760
<v Speaker 1>FED is essentially enabling and do nothing Congress because the

1:00:26.840 --> 1:00:31.720
<v Speaker 1>repercussions for their do nothingness, and that's happened. That that's

1:00:31.720 --> 1:00:39.280
<v Speaker 1>absolutely right, that monetary stimulus leads to no fiscal activity,

1:00:39.360 --> 1:00:42.000
<v Speaker 1>and that's the period that we're in now. I think

1:00:42.000 --> 1:00:46.080
<v Speaker 1>in Europe, maybe there's a different experiment going on here.

1:00:46.720 --> 1:00:49.120
<v Speaker 1>One could make the case that in spite of Droggy

1:00:49.240 --> 1:00:54.160
<v Speaker 1>saying will do everything we can do, I think he's

1:00:54.200 --> 1:00:57.000
<v Speaker 1>saying that he certainly hasn't done it, and he hasn't

1:00:57.000 --> 1:01:00.440
<v Speaker 1>got the tools to do it. And he's calling for

1:01:00.560 --> 1:01:06.240
<v Speaker 1>both reform and stimulus coming out of the European countries

1:01:06.760 --> 1:01:08.720
<v Speaker 1>and he's trying to make that work. So we've got

1:01:08.760 --> 1:01:12.920
<v Speaker 1>this other experiment that we were watching to say, Okay,

1:01:12.960 --> 1:01:15.240
<v Speaker 1>well this is what the FED could have done. Now

1:01:15.360 --> 1:01:18.919
<v Speaker 1>Dragging maybe feels more secure in his current job than

1:01:19.440 --> 1:01:23.640
<v Speaker 1>the FED members did, but that's that's a different experiment

1:01:23.680 --> 1:01:26.840
<v Speaker 1>that's happening in Europe. I look at that the statement,

1:01:26.880 --> 1:01:29.600
<v Speaker 1>and I think what he really wants to say is, hey,

1:01:29.640 --> 1:01:32.760
<v Speaker 1>we need some fiscal stimulus. Yes, but I can't say that.

1:01:33.120 --> 1:01:36.560
<v Speaker 1>So I'm gonna call for fiscal stimulus and reform and

1:01:36.760 --> 1:01:39.880
<v Speaker 1>let people argue about a little of both can hurt.

1:01:40.320 --> 1:01:44.240
<v Speaker 1>But in the meantime, you know, Europe, it continues to

1:01:44.280 --> 1:01:48.120
<v Speaker 1>be weak. Um, you look at the euro. They've the

1:01:48.160 --> 1:01:51.640
<v Speaker 1>one thing that they've managed to do over in Europe

1:01:51.680 --> 1:01:54.960
<v Speaker 1>is actually get the euro to fall. So we have

1:01:55.040 --> 1:01:59.160
<v Speaker 1>the dollarate multi year highs, which is good for us

1:01:59.200 --> 1:02:03.520
<v Speaker 1>as consumers of oil, which is now at multi year lows. Um.

1:02:03.560 --> 1:02:06.800
<v Speaker 1>And if you travel abroad, hey, burger in London is

1:02:06.840 --> 1:02:09.480
<v Speaker 1>no longer forty seven dollars. That's and that's not a

1:02:09.520 --> 1:02:11.280
<v Speaker 1>made up number. That's the last time I was there,

1:02:11.640 --> 1:02:14.560
<v Speaker 1>I had a burger somewhere it was forty seven dollars.

1:02:14.640 --> 1:02:17.600
<v Speaker 1>Was the exchange rate was so awful. So now that's

1:02:17.720 --> 1:02:20.640
<v Speaker 1>changed a bit. It's changed a bit. And there are

1:02:20.680 --> 1:02:24.640
<v Speaker 1>some people. I was at a all day meeting with

1:02:24.840 --> 1:02:27.880
<v Speaker 1>one of our managers and it was Chatham House, So

1:02:27.960 --> 1:02:31.280
<v Speaker 1>I can't really talk about who said this. Adam House

1:02:31.360 --> 1:02:34.400
<v Speaker 1>rules means you can describe what was said, but you

1:02:34.480 --> 1:02:37.320
<v Speaker 1>cannot identify the person by name. Identify You could say

1:02:37.360 --> 1:02:40.600
<v Speaker 1>a manager who specialized in fixed income, but that's I

1:02:40.640 --> 1:02:44.160
<v Speaker 1>can say. I can say a manager who actually pays

1:02:44.200 --> 1:02:49.200
<v Speaker 1>a lot of attention to foreign exchange, believes that ultimately

1:02:49.520 --> 1:02:54.920
<v Speaker 1>will see the euro at one parity with the dollar

1:02:55.560 --> 1:02:58.360
<v Speaker 1>dollar for dollar, and if he had to bet over

1:02:58.520 --> 1:03:04.680
<v Speaker 1>under one or eight. So keep in mind, the euro

1:03:05.160 --> 1:03:08.680
<v Speaker 1>not too long ago was about a buck forty seven?

1:03:08.800 --> 1:03:12.160
<v Speaker 1>Is that right? And I had a friend who in

1:03:12.280 --> 1:03:15.560
<v Speaker 1>the early two thousand's, the last time the dollar was

1:03:15.680 --> 1:03:19.920
<v Speaker 1>crazy strong, was going to Europe and buying Porsches and

1:03:19.960 --> 1:03:24.360
<v Speaker 1>Ferraris and high end bmw and Mercedes, bring them to

1:03:24.400 --> 1:03:28.600
<v Speaker 1>the United States, making them US d OT legal and

1:03:28.640 --> 1:03:31.720
<v Speaker 1>selling them for a fat profit and still undercutting the

1:03:31.760 --> 1:03:35.960
<v Speaker 1>dealers by twenty dollars because the exchange rate had gotten

1:03:36.200 --> 1:03:41.840
<v Speaker 1>that crazy. To this day, I regret not making the

1:03:41.960 --> 1:03:44.960
<v Speaker 1>pulling the trigger on a BMW Z eight, which at

1:03:45.000 --> 1:03:48.200
<v Speaker 1>the time I couldn't have afforded. This is fifteen years

1:03:48.240 --> 1:03:51.200
<v Speaker 1>ago or twelve years, twelve years ago, and it was

1:03:51.240 --> 1:03:53.400
<v Speaker 1>about seventy grand and now that car is going for

1:03:53.400 --> 1:03:56.920
<v Speaker 1>about two. This goes a little in the other direction,

1:03:57.000 --> 1:04:00.040
<v Speaker 1>but the same thing. I was in Japan on a

1:04:00.040 --> 1:04:04.240
<v Speaker 1>business trip, took my wife. The end was at to right,

1:04:04.280 --> 1:04:07.680
<v Speaker 1>and today today where are we? One oh six? Right?

1:04:07.720 --> 1:04:10.600
<v Speaker 1>How I was gonna say half? But and what were

1:04:10.600 --> 1:04:14.440
<v Speaker 1>you looking at back then? Uh? Well, my wife was

1:04:15.200 --> 1:04:20.560
<v Speaker 1>just going shopping every possible place she could. At that

1:04:20.640 --> 1:04:25.160
<v Speaker 1>point in time, everything just so cheap. It was we

1:04:25.360 --> 1:04:30.640
<v Speaker 1>had to buy two extra trunks, not just suitcases, trunks

1:04:31.080 --> 1:04:34.360
<v Speaker 1>to haul back what she bought. And the truth is

1:04:34.960 --> 1:04:37.720
<v Speaker 1>we should have bought more. So it's funny because when

1:04:38.320 --> 1:04:42.760
<v Speaker 1>people should be aware of how CONNI affects everything. From

1:04:42.880 --> 1:04:46.040
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and one, when the FED started cutting rates

1:04:46.120 --> 1:04:50.200
<v Speaker 1>after nine eleven UM to two thousand and seven, the

1:04:50.480 --> 1:04:54.760
<v Speaker 1>dollar lost of its value. If you want to know

1:04:55.320 --> 1:04:58.800
<v Speaker 1>why oil skyrocket in the two thousands, food and gold

1:04:58.840 --> 1:05:01.960
<v Speaker 1>and everything else. Hey, the measuring stick got much smaller.

1:05:02.360 --> 1:05:06.240
<v Speaker 1>And we were here in Manhattan. My old office was

1:05:06.280 --> 1:05:08.560
<v Speaker 1>on Fifth and forty four and around the corner from

1:05:08.640 --> 1:05:13.280
<v Speaker 1>us was a two ME shop and T M I

1:05:13.320 --> 1:05:18.240
<v Speaker 1>the logest really high end, very expensive stuff. The city

1:05:18.360 --> 1:05:22.760
<v Speaker 1>was just filled with Europeans and this was the highest

1:05:22.800 --> 1:05:26.680
<v Speaker 1>producing shop in the country. So I speaking, I pop

1:05:26.760 --> 1:05:29.520
<v Speaker 1>in there and it was impossible, just looking for a

1:05:29.520 --> 1:05:33.560
<v Speaker 1>computer case and for a laptop. And I started talking

1:05:33.560 --> 1:05:36.400
<v Speaker 1>to the manager and I'm like, the house business these days,

1:05:36.480 --> 1:05:39.439
<v Speaker 1>and his answer was it's insane. He goes, we don't

1:05:39.440 --> 1:05:42.120
<v Speaker 1>have a big enough warehouse. To keep ourselves filled. The

1:05:42.160 --> 1:05:46.040
<v Speaker 1>Europeans come in, they're buying the big wheeled suitcase. He goes,

1:05:46.080 --> 1:05:49.000
<v Speaker 1>we sell these a piece. We can't keep them in stock.

1:05:49.320 --> 1:05:51.080
<v Speaker 1>People are coming in and buying them two and three

1:05:51.080 --> 1:05:53.720
<v Speaker 1>at a time. The dollar was so cheap to them.

1:05:53.760 --> 1:05:56.680
<v Speaker 1>It was like si off to these folks. And then

1:05:56.720 --> 1:05:59.200
<v Speaker 1>they would take these big suitcases and wheellum over to

1:05:59.240 --> 1:06:03.160
<v Speaker 1>Bloomingdale's and Phil Madison and they would basically take all

1:06:03.240 --> 1:06:07.200
<v Speaker 1>the stuff and take it back. That's that's exactly That's

1:06:07.240 --> 1:06:10.640
<v Speaker 1>exactly what happened. And that's clearly what my wife did

1:06:10.680 --> 1:06:14.440
<v Speaker 1>in Japan, and she's electronics or clothes or well. She

1:06:14.640 --> 1:06:19.560
<v Speaker 1>was buying actually a lot of antiques, a lot of

1:06:20.080 --> 1:06:23.720
<v Speaker 1>baskets that they had, you know, very artistic basket She

1:06:23.840 --> 1:06:27.600
<v Speaker 1>was buying a lot of this stuff that today again

1:06:27.640 --> 1:06:30.240
<v Speaker 1>it costs two and a half times right then, and

1:06:30.280 --> 1:06:33.560
<v Speaker 1>even a little more because some of these were collector's items.

1:06:33.600 --> 1:06:36.000
<v Speaker 1>The thing that I used to hear about people coming

1:06:36.000 --> 1:06:39.720
<v Speaker 1>back from Japan with all the time was the nikon.

1:06:39.960 --> 1:06:42.480
<v Speaker 1>I want to say, D seven's is that yes, yea.

1:06:43.160 --> 1:06:45.560
<v Speaker 1>And my wife actually lost one in the back of

1:06:45.600 --> 1:06:47.400
<v Speaker 1>a cab, left it in the trunk of a cab.

1:06:47.760 --> 1:06:49.960
<v Speaker 1>But we knew people would come back and it's a

1:06:50.040 --> 1:06:53.640
<v Speaker 1>three thousand all camera. They were paying like six just

1:06:54.080 --> 1:06:57.240
<v Speaker 1>the numbers were so crazy. I'll take to bring it

1:06:57.280 --> 1:07:00.120
<v Speaker 1>back with And it was also we went to Hong

1:07:00.200 --> 1:07:02.920
<v Speaker 1>Kong after that it was the same thing. What year

1:07:03.040 --> 1:07:07.760
<v Speaker 1>was this this gosh before unification? Obviously it was it

1:07:07.880 --> 1:07:10.480
<v Speaker 1>was very much So. So you do a lot of

1:07:10.520 --> 1:07:14.280
<v Speaker 1>traveling for for business or for pleasure of both, a

1:07:14.320 --> 1:07:16.520
<v Speaker 1>little bit of both, and I try to combine it.

1:07:16.760 --> 1:07:18.840
<v Speaker 1>So where have you been and what parts of the

1:07:18.840 --> 1:07:23.040
<v Speaker 1>world are really interesting to you as an investor these days? Well,

1:07:23.080 --> 1:07:25.920
<v Speaker 1>what's interesting? Well, I'll start with some of the places

1:07:26.000 --> 1:07:29.040
<v Speaker 1>I've been. I'm watching what's going on in India with

1:07:29.240 --> 1:07:33.920
<v Speaker 1>Modi and I'm watching also what's going on between India

1:07:33.960 --> 1:07:38.640
<v Speaker 1>and Pakistan, because there's a little history with a little Yeah.

1:07:38.720 --> 1:07:44.040
<v Speaker 1>What what's amazing is why have hasn't India become China?

1:07:44.200 --> 1:07:48.240
<v Speaker 1>Why hasn't India to take all this intellectual capital they

1:07:48.280 --> 1:07:53.680
<v Speaker 1>have and amongst the highest educated workforce when it comes

1:07:53.720 --> 1:07:59.840
<v Speaker 1>to stem um science, technology, engineering, math, and and you

1:08:00.000 --> 1:08:03.280
<v Speaker 1>look at medicine, look at and yet they half the

1:08:03.280 --> 1:08:06.439
<v Speaker 1>country doesn't have indoor plumbing, they're using half the half

1:08:06.480 --> 1:08:10.080
<v Speaker 1>the country six million people don't have they're not tied

1:08:10.120 --> 1:08:13.280
<v Speaker 1>into the grid, they have no electricity. How is that

1:08:13.640 --> 1:08:16.919
<v Speaker 1>Is that a societal failure? Is that? Well, it's political.

1:08:18.080 --> 1:08:21.680
<v Speaker 1>Part of political. It's a it's a democracy and and

1:08:21.760 --> 1:08:24.320
<v Speaker 1>it's the biggest democracy in the world, and it's a

1:08:24.360 --> 1:08:30.879
<v Speaker 1>democracy down to a provincial level. The politics are are severe.

1:08:31.600 --> 1:08:33.479
<v Speaker 1>I think you can blame a lot of it on

1:08:33.520 --> 1:08:37.800
<v Speaker 1>the British. They set up a great bureaucratic system, which

1:08:37.880 --> 1:08:42.680
<v Speaker 1>the Indians have perfected bureaucracy, so the efficiency of the

1:08:42.800 --> 1:08:47.320
<v Speaker 1>system is way down, and frankly, the corruption is very high,

1:08:47.840 --> 1:08:51.760
<v Speaker 1>very very high. Wed to ideal lab companies over there,

1:08:51.840 --> 1:08:57.240
<v Speaker 1>we ultimately sold them both to Indians because as outsiders,

1:08:58.479 --> 1:09:01.760
<v Speaker 1>we couldn't we couldn't deal. We could deal with everybody's

1:09:01.800 --> 1:09:05.360
<v Speaker 1>hand out to actually get business done. There are some

1:09:05.640 --> 1:09:08.880
<v Speaker 1>laws that say, as Americans were not supposed to do that,

1:09:09.320 --> 1:09:11.960
<v Speaker 1>even if it's in another country and you just you

1:09:12.080 --> 1:09:15.000
<v Speaker 1>just couldn't do it. But you couldn't. You then could

1:09:15.040 --> 1:09:17.920
<v Speaker 1>not create a business unless you knew how to work.

1:09:18.400 --> 1:09:20.960
<v Speaker 1>So what's it going to take to get India out

1:09:21.040 --> 1:09:25.160
<v Speaker 1>from out of their own way. It's it could take

1:09:25.200 --> 1:09:28.920
<v Speaker 1>someone like Modi, because if I went to Gujarat a

1:09:28.920 --> 1:09:32.000
<v Speaker 1>lot and we actually set up our manufacturing facility there,

1:09:32.240 --> 1:09:36.559
<v Speaker 1>and Gujarat ran like a real it ran almost like

1:09:36.600 --> 1:09:41.000
<v Speaker 1>its own country. There was efficiency, there was less corruption.

1:09:41.120 --> 1:09:43.600
<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't say there was no corruption, but there was

1:09:43.680 --> 1:09:48.560
<v Speaker 1>less corruption, and there was a you know, a firm,

1:09:48.600 --> 1:09:52.599
<v Speaker 1>a firm leader who was actually making decisions around what

1:09:52.680 --> 1:09:56.080
<v Speaker 1>was going on there. The country could move in that direction,

1:09:56.080 --> 1:09:58.200
<v Speaker 1>but it's it's going to take a long time to

1:09:58.240 --> 1:10:01.000
<v Speaker 1>get from where they are to where they could be.

1:10:01.560 --> 1:10:04.840
<v Speaker 1>But you know, that stock market is actually been a

1:10:04.880 --> 1:10:08.840
<v Speaker 1>pretty good stock market. Pretty well. Mody was here during

1:10:08.840 --> 1:10:11.800
<v Speaker 1>the last U N session and he was a rock star.

1:10:11.880 --> 1:10:17.280
<v Speaker 1>He gave there was a presentation at Madison Square Garden.

1:10:17.880 --> 1:10:20.760
<v Speaker 1>It was insane. We saw eclipse of it. It was

1:10:20.840 --> 1:10:24.760
<v Speaker 1>like you two was in town. It was an absolutely

1:10:25.000 --> 1:10:30.840
<v Speaker 1>a madhouse, you know, Rolling Stones type of show. How

1:10:30.880 --> 1:10:34.439
<v Speaker 1>does a politician find themselves? And that we don't see

1:10:34.439 --> 1:10:36.559
<v Speaker 1>that in the US. You don't see that. But this

1:10:36.640 --> 1:10:39.040
<v Speaker 1>was a major change. It was a move away from

1:10:39.080 --> 1:10:43.920
<v Speaker 1>the whole Gandhi and and the other party, the Congress Party,

1:10:44.120 --> 1:10:47.080
<v Speaker 1>into something totally different where there's a lot of hope,

1:10:47.600 --> 1:10:51.439
<v Speaker 1>while we recall the president being elected here where there

1:10:51.520 --> 1:10:53.800
<v Speaker 1>was a lot of hope as well, there was a

1:10:53.840 --> 1:10:56.640
<v Speaker 1>lot of hope. I think we have a very experienced

1:10:57.280 --> 1:11:01.719
<v Speaker 1>both politician and manager, and it could make a difference there.

1:11:01.840 --> 1:11:05.120
<v Speaker 1>But I'm watching that. What I'm interested in, I call

1:11:05.200 --> 1:11:07.599
<v Speaker 1>it sort of close to home. I think you can

1:11:07.640 --> 1:11:11.920
<v Speaker 1>find investments from Canada to Tierra del Fuego that will

1:11:12.000 --> 1:11:15.639
<v Speaker 1>take care of your emerging market needs, your energy needs,

1:11:16.160 --> 1:11:20.040
<v Speaker 1>your actual businesses. If you want rule of law, you

1:11:20.080 --> 1:11:23.080
<v Speaker 1>can sort of stay with Canada and UH in the

1:11:23.200 --> 1:11:26.519
<v Speaker 1>US if you want to take some risk. Great things

1:11:26.560 --> 1:11:29.320
<v Speaker 1>going on in Mexico. We'll see how this election comes

1:11:29.360 --> 1:11:32.960
<v Speaker 1>out Brazil, and I think I think what's happening in

1:11:33.160 --> 1:11:37.960
<v Speaker 1>Argentina ultimately does get resolved, and it may get resolved

1:11:37.960 --> 1:11:40.120
<v Speaker 1>in a way where we're not going to see the

1:11:40.160 --> 1:11:44.679
<v Speaker 1>opportunity to do what happened there on sovereign debt. So

1:11:44.680 --> 1:11:47.439
<v Speaker 1>so are you talking about the social unrest or the

1:11:47.479 --> 1:11:52.160
<v Speaker 1>hedge fund situation? The hedge fund situation that's ultimately got

1:11:52.160 --> 1:11:55.640
<v Speaker 1>to get squared away. I think it will, and I

1:11:55.640 --> 1:11:58.759
<v Speaker 1>think we'll get squared away in terms of a change

1:11:58.840 --> 1:12:02.559
<v Speaker 1>in the rules around sovereign debt, having a lot of

1:12:02.560 --> 1:12:05.840
<v Speaker 1>the rules already been changed going forward, there have there

1:12:05.880 --> 1:12:08.160
<v Speaker 1>have been some, but you haven't totally gotten to the

1:12:08.240 --> 1:12:14.960
<v Speaker 1>point where a rogue investor and sovereign debt can actually

1:12:15.360 --> 1:12:19.040
<v Speaker 1>cause the kind of grief that we've seen, so for

1:12:19.120 --> 1:12:24.320
<v Speaker 1>people who may not be tracking this closely. So, Argentina

1:12:24.400 --> 1:12:28.760
<v Speaker 1>has a lot of UM sovereign debt, not not corporate debt,

1:12:29.200 --> 1:12:32.560
<v Speaker 1>and they went through restructuring, and when you go through restructuring,

1:12:33.080 --> 1:12:36.760
<v Speaker 1>the creditor committee gets to weigh in on how much

1:12:36.760 --> 1:12:39.240
<v Speaker 1>of a haircut, how much less they're willing to take,

1:12:39.920 --> 1:12:43.439
<v Speaker 1>and there's a secondary market where people can go and

1:12:43.600 --> 1:12:47.200
<v Speaker 1>buy this debt. Hey, listen, this is gonna get cut

1:12:47.240 --> 1:12:50.200
<v Speaker 1>in half. Um, you could wait seven years to get

1:12:50.200 --> 1:12:52.679
<v Speaker 1>your fifty cents on the dollar, I'll give you thirty

1:12:52.680 --> 1:12:55.280
<v Speaker 1>cents on the dollar today. And a number of hedge

1:12:55.320 --> 1:13:00.519
<v Speaker 1>funds did this, some of whom then became members of

1:13:00.560 --> 1:13:04.479
<v Speaker 1>that creditor committee and I'm grossly oversimplifying this and basically

1:13:04.600 --> 1:13:07.040
<v Speaker 1>said we're not going to participate in this. We want

1:13:07.040 --> 1:13:09.840
<v Speaker 1>a full hundred cents on the dollar. And they even

1:13:09.920 --> 1:13:13.800
<v Speaker 1>managed to attach a warship, one of one of the

1:13:13.960 --> 1:13:17.320
<v Speaker 1>Argentinean warships made ports somewhere and they show up and

1:13:17.360 --> 1:13:20.320
<v Speaker 1>serve papers on the captain and said, until we get paid,

1:13:20.479 --> 1:13:25.160
<v Speaker 1>this isn't your ship anymore, which I don't think is

1:13:25.200 --> 1:13:29.080
<v Speaker 1>a way to run a process around sovereign debt. And

1:13:29.280 --> 1:13:31.400
<v Speaker 1>it just is not the way that it may make

1:13:31.479 --> 1:13:35.360
<v Speaker 1>sovereign debt more expensive. It's not very clean, it's not

1:13:35.479 --> 1:13:40.600
<v Speaker 1>very efficient. Yes, and you you actually paralyze a country,

1:13:40.760 --> 1:13:44.160
<v Speaker 1>and um, we need to get past that. And I

1:13:44.400 --> 1:13:50.800
<v Speaker 1>I think Argentina's got energy just running sure everywhere. And

1:13:50.880 --> 1:13:54.799
<v Speaker 1>it's a beautiful country. It's got great people. It's always

1:13:54.800 --> 1:13:57.080
<v Speaker 1>had or for a long time here has had a

1:13:57.080 --> 1:14:01.520
<v Speaker 1>bad government. Well that that you could described so many countries.

1:14:01.760 --> 1:14:04.559
<v Speaker 1>Let you mentioned. So there's two things you you touched

1:14:04.600 --> 1:14:06.920
<v Speaker 1>on that I want to You mentioned that I definitely

1:14:07.000 --> 1:14:09.679
<v Speaker 1>want to touch upon in our last ten or so minutes.

1:14:10.120 --> 1:14:12.760
<v Speaker 1>You mentioned Japan, and that's a country that has all

1:14:12.760 --> 1:14:15.880
<v Speaker 1>sorts of interesting problems, and then you mentioned energy, And

1:14:15.920 --> 1:14:18.120
<v Speaker 1>I want to talk about both of those because I

1:14:18.160 --> 1:14:20.320
<v Speaker 1>know you have a lot of experience in each area.

1:14:20.880 --> 1:14:27.719
<v Speaker 1>Japan debt ridden society, aging society, terribly low birth rate,

1:14:27.840 --> 1:14:36.559
<v Speaker 1>almost no immigration, but a phenomenal corporate export economy. How

1:14:36.600 --> 1:14:40.400
<v Speaker 1>does that work and how what's the endgame there? With

1:14:40.920 --> 1:14:43.439
<v Speaker 1>what happens? The real question is what is the end game?

1:14:43.720 --> 1:14:47.439
<v Speaker 1>And the end game may be driven by demographics as

1:14:47.520 --> 1:14:50.920
<v Speaker 1>much as anything else. So the average age keeps going up,

1:14:51.200 --> 1:14:55.160
<v Speaker 1>very few new kids coming in. You know, you think

1:14:55.200 --> 1:14:57.799
<v Speaker 1>about the baby boom and what that in the United States.

1:14:58.240 --> 1:15:00.960
<v Speaker 1>This is the opposite of that. This is the opposite. Now,

1:15:01.040 --> 1:15:04.200
<v Speaker 1>what what Japan has not done is it hasn't taken

1:15:04.880 --> 1:15:09.360
<v Speaker 1>full advantage of their female population. So they've got workers,

1:15:09.400 --> 1:15:14.160
<v Speaker 1>They've got workers that they could actually have something happen with.

1:15:14.320 --> 1:15:18.840
<v Speaker 1>But I don't know culturally, yes that there. You know,

1:15:18.960 --> 1:15:22.800
<v Speaker 1>you have women are talented and they're the society is

1:15:22.880 --> 1:15:27.320
<v Speaker 1>just not taking advantage of that, and they may have to.

1:15:27.680 --> 1:15:31.200
<v Speaker 1>At the same time, you do have technology continuing to

1:15:31.240 --> 1:15:33.559
<v Speaker 1>move here. So how many people do you actually need?

1:15:33.800 --> 1:15:37.640
<v Speaker 1>Less and less? That's the that's the secular argument for

1:15:37.800 --> 1:15:42.280
<v Speaker 1>why the labor pool continually shrinks. Yeah, there's a baby

1:15:42.280 --> 1:15:45.280
<v Speaker 1>boom generation that's sixty thousand a day or whatever the

1:15:45.360 --> 1:15:49.439
<v Speaker 1>number is retires. But on the other hand, globalization of

1:15:49.520 --> 1:15:52.040
<v Speaker 1>people else we're willing to work much cheaper. That's whether

1:15:52.080 --> 1:15:56.599
<v Speaker 1>it's Vietnam or Turkey or Mexico. And you have look

1:15:56.640 --> 1:16:00.080
<v Speaker 1>in my office, we're less than ten people. The stuff

1:16:00.120 --> 1:16:04.439
<v Speaker 1>that we do, we talk about technology, it would have

1:16:04.520 --> 1:16:07.040
<v Speaker 1>taken it would have taken a hundred people, it would

1:16:07.080 --> 1:16:09.840
<v Speaker 1>not have or it would have been so expensive to

1:16:09.920 --> 1:16:13.920
<v Speaker 1>do you couldn't so so we put out a number

1:16:13.960 --> 1:16:18.959
<v Speaker 1>of different commentaries every month, We put out a quarterly

1:16:19.040 --> 1:16:22.800
<v Speaker 1>conference call for clients. We do a whole series of

1:16:22.880 --> 1:16:28.000
<v Speaker 1>analytics on all our portfolios, and we do a regularly

1:16:28.040 --> 1:16:31.519
<v Speaker 1>balancing and every one of those things is essentially you

1:16:31.560 --> 1:16:34.920
<v Speaker 1>push your button. And it used to take four guys

1:16:34.960 --> 1:16:38.320
<v Speaker 1>with green eye shades working for two weeks in the

1:16:38.320 --> 1:16:40.880
<v Speaker 1>basement of some building, you know, a month to get

1:16:40.920 --> 1:16:44.240
<v Speaker 1>that out. And now it's eight seconds pushing and it happens,

1:16:44.360 --> 1:16:47.720
<v Speaker 1>and that that would that's the only thing that I

1:16:47.760 --> 1:16:53.080
<v Speaker 1>think could save Japan Front from what looks like I

1:16:53.080 --> 1:16:55.120
<v Speaker 1>don't know how long it's going to take, but it's

1:16:55.160 --> 1:16:58.920
<v Speaker 1>not going to end well, I don't think. And yet

1:16:58.960 --> 1:17:01.519
<v Speaker 1>and yet people are willing to lend them money for

1:17:01.680 --> 1:17:06.719
<v Speaker 1>ten years at fifty basis. How is that their their

1:17:06.760 --> 1:17:11.320
<v Speaker 1>debt to GDP is approaching two. It's twice as bad

1:17:11.360 --> 1:17:15.400
<v Speaker 1>as ours, almost three times as bad as ours, and

1:17:15.479 --> 1:17:20.479
<v Speaker 1>yet their their treasury is much muscle. So so if

1:17:20.520 --> 1:17:23.240
<v Speaker 1>people are still willing, the marketplace is still willing to

1:17:23.320 --> 1:17:26.360
<v Speaker 1>lend them money, when when is that going to stop?

1:17:26.360 --> 1:17:29.640
<v Speaker 1>When is that going to change? I don't know, but

1:17:29.720 --> 1:17:32.760
<v Speaker 1>at some point it has to or or you're going

1:17:32.880 --> 1:17:37.000
<v Speaker 1>to see the end back at and maybe that'll change. Well,

1:17:37.040 --> 1:17:40.520
<v Speaker 1>that'll hurt their economy dramatically if everything becomes more expensive

1:17:40.560 --> 1:17:43.880
<v Speaker 1>out of them. So let's talk a little bit about energy.

1:17:44.160 --> 1:17:47.160
<v Speaker 1>Where we're in a at the time we're recording this,

1:17:47.280 --> 1:17:51.880
<v Speaker 1>oil briefly dipped under eighty dollars, and some of this

1:17:51.960 --> 1:17:54.680
<v Speaker 1>has to do with let's talk about three things. So

1:17:54.720 --> 1:17:58.519
<v Speaker 1>we have the strong dollar obviously a factor. We also

1:17:58.840 --> 1:18:03.280
<v Speaker 1>have seen supply I'm sorry, we've seen demand drop some

1:18:03.400 --> 1:18:06.960
<v Speaker 1>of its weakness in Europe and weakness in Japan and Asia.

1:18:07.439 --> 1:18:11.400
<v Speaker 1>But we've also seen the US become more efficient as

1:18:11.439 --> 1:18:15.800
<v Speaker 1>a consumer as the world's largest consumer of energy is

1:18:15.840 --> 1:18:19.200
<v Speaker 1>a factor. And then at the same time, massive discoveries

1:18:19.600 --> 1:18:25.120
<v Speaker 1>of supply everywhere, whether it's tar sands or shell gas.

1:18:25.120 --> 1:18:28.280
<v Speaker 1>It's around the world. It's not it's not not just

1:18:29.200 --> 1:18:32.840
<v Speaker 1>the technology, but it's it's around the world. So I

1:18:32.920 --> 1:18:35.680
<v Speaker 1>think the supply picture, the combination of what they call

1:18:35.720 --> 1:18:41.400
<v Speaker 1>it conventional hydrocarbon energy combined with the alternative energies, we're

1:18:41.479 --> 1:18:44.120
<v Speaker 1>creating a lot of energy and I think it's going

1:18:44.160 --> 1:18:48.320
<v Speaker 1>to keep pressure on prices here. And we've got certainly

1:18:48.400 --> 1:18:50.400
<v Speaker 1>at this point in time, we have a lot of

1:18:50.439 --> 1:18:54.240
<v Speaker 1>countries that need those revenues and they're not getting them.

1:18:54.400 --> 1:18:59.200
<v Speaker 1>So that's Russia, which is Russia is I think we

1:18:59.280 --> 1:19:02.559
<v Speaker 1>see a finance chill crisis coming out of all this.

1:19:02.680 --> 1:19:05.080
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, it could be three years or whatever.

1:19:05.200 --> 1:19:08.240
<v Speaker 1>You have to look at at Russia and what's going

1:19:08.320 --> 1:19:12.400
<v Speaker 1>on there, and and the revenue requirement that they've got.

1:19:12.840 --> 1:19:17.080
<v Speaker 1>They can't afford to actually get overly involved in the Ukraine.

1:19:17.600 --> 1:19:22.160
<v Speaker 1>They need the revenues. Energy prices are just seeing a

1:19:22.760 --> 1:19:26.720
<v Speaker 1>global a global shift here and and and actually I

1:19:26.720 --> 1:19:30.760
<v Speaker 1>think it affects geopolitics dramatically. What is what is the

1:19:30.840 --> 1:19:34.040
<v Speaker 1>real importance of the Middle East if in fact we

1:19:34.160 --> 1:19:38.080
<v Speaker 1>develop all these other sources of who cares about Iran

1:19:38.120 --> 1:19:42.200
<v Speaker 1>a foil that's right, that they have much lower ability

1:19:42.240 --> 1:19:45.400
<v Speaker 1>to do mischief. That's that's right, and this is this

1:19:45.479 --> 1:19:48.760
<v Speaker 1>is good thing. It means that maybe they have to

1:19:49.200 --> 1:19:55.759
<v Speaker 1>compropise more about nuclear or anything else that that allows

1:19:55.800 --> 1:19:58.479
<v Speaker 1>them to get back away from the sanctions and be

1:19:58.640 --> 1:20:01.320
<v Speaker 1>involved in the in the real world. Here, it's a

1:20:01.600 --> 1:20:07.720
<v Speaker 1>major shift in where the power, if you'll pardon the pun,

1:20:07.880 --> 1:20:12.000
<v Speaker 1>where the power resides. And it will change our relationships

1:20:12.000 --> 1:20:15.839
<v Speaker 1>with the Middle East. It may change our relationships with Israel.

1:20:16.280 --> 1:20:19.240
<v Speaker 1>It certainly changes our relationships with a lot of the

1:20:19.280 --> 1:20:23.360
<v Speaker 1>other energy suppliers as we find other sources. So you

1:20:23.400 --> 1:20:28.680
<v Speaker 1>mentioned traditional crude oil, traditional energy. We have the Tarsands

1:20:28.800 --> 1:20:34.000
<v Speaker 1>up north, we have hydro fracking in for natural gas.

1:20:34.040 --> 1:20:39.000
<v Speaker 1>Here we have liquid using cold to make liquefied natural gas.

1:20:39.000 --> 1:20:43.559
<v Speaker 1>And what am I forgetting in the um hydrocarbon space

1:20:43.760 --> 1:20:46.680
<v Speaker 1>and in the hydrocarbon space, I think, I think that's it,

1:20:46.920 --> 1:20:50.439
<v Speaker 1>But but the impact there is not just on energy.

1:20:51.320 --> 1:20:55.360
<v Speaker 1>Hydrocarbons are a feedstock for a lot of what gets

1:20:55.400 --> 1:21:01.360
<v Speaker 1>produced around the world, as plastics and the plastics I

1:21:01.360 --> 1:21:04.680
<v Speaker 1>mean the job. Iran once said that that oil is

1:21:04.760 --> 1:21:09.600
<v Speaker 1>too precious to be used to power cars, and you

1:21:09.600 --> 1:21:12.000
<v Speaker 1>can make anything you want with it. And if you're

1:21:12.000 --> 1:21:15.960
<v Speaker 1>if you're lowering the cost of that feedstock in terms

1:21:15.960 --> 1:21:19.120
<v Speaker 1>of what you can produce and where you can produce it.

1:21:19.680 --> 1:21:22.400
<v Speaker 1>This also can lead to a renaissance of where you

1:21:22.479 --> 1:21:26.839
<v Speaker 1>actually established your manufacturing, particularly if it's not labor related

1:21:26.960 --> 1:21:31.040
<v Speaker 1>and more what I would call technology related in the

1:21:31.080 --> 1:21:34.160
<v Speaker 1>way you set up your manufacturing. And if your feedstock

1:21:34.680 --> 1:21:37.680
<v Speaker 1>sort of guaranteed feedstock is lower, let's say in the

1:21:37.800 --> 1:21:42.559
<v Speaker 1>US or lower in Argentina, it makes a difference on

1:21:42.640 --> 1:21:45.760
<v Speaker 1>where you're putting your plants. You can build manufacturing facilities

1:21:45.880 --> 1:21:48.599
<v Speaker 1>right there. That's right, and that's good for the local

1:21:48.640 --> 1:21:51.040
<v Speaker 1>economy and it's good for the local account. It's it's

1:21:51.040 --> 1:21:54.679
<v Speaker 1>a major shift that's taking place here and and always

1:21:54.680 --> 1:22:00.520
<v Speaker 1>as it has. Energy actually produces major shifts and powers structures.

1:22:00.600 --> 1:22:02.320
<v Speaker 1>Is why you can you can go back to the

1:22:02.960 --> 1:22:05.840
<v Speaker 1>to the Dutch and and whale oil, or you can

1:22:05.880 --> 1:22:11.559
<v Speaker 1>go to coal and the United Kingdom. I mean, you know,

1:22:11.600 --> 1:22:14.200
<v Speaker 1>it's caused major shifts. We we started seeing this a

1:22:14.200 --> 1:22:17.599
<v Speaker 1>few years ago, and people were not big believers of,

1:22:18.160 --> 1:22:21.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, the manufacturing renaissance in the United States. The

1:22:21.200 --> 1:22:25.000
<v Speaker 1>complaint in China is, well, we don't we can't reliably

1:22:25.120 --> 1:22:29.240
<v Speaker 1>get electricity, and the electricity that comes in fluctuates wildly

1:22:29.360 --> 1:22:33.240
<v Speaker 1>and ampage and voltage. So there's a cost of building

1:22:34.240 --> 1:22:38.559
<v Speaker 1>a set of electronics to create a steady output as

1:22:38.640 --> 1:22:41.519
<v Speaker 1>opposed to these wild swings. You go anywhere in the

1:22:41.560 --> 1:22:45.400
<v Speaker 1>mid Midwest, United States and run a natural gas pipeline

1:22:46.080 --> 1:22:49.120
<v Speaker 1>or just a natural gas line there, set up electrical

1:22:49.160 --> 1:22:54.760
<v Speaker 1>co generation plant, you have inexhaustible, almost free electricity. Right.

1:22:55.320 --> 1:23:00.480
<v Speaker 1>And so if you're running a heavy consumer of actricity,

1:23:00.560 --> 1:23:05.560
<v Speaker 1>whether it's a semiconductor fab or a heavier industrial manufacturer,

1:23:06.400 --> 1:23:08.800
<v Speaker 1>it be is now once you back at the cost

1:23:08.840 --> 1:23:12.200
<v Speaker 1>of shipping from from Asia, the United States has become

1:23:12.240 --> 1:23:16.599
<v Speaker 1>really cost competitive. It's called it's cost competitive. And and

1:23:16.640 --> 1:23:19.559
<v Speaker 1>we still have the rule of law here, which makes

1:23:19.560 --> 1:23:23.120
<v Speaker 1>a big, big difference, as anybody who was trying to

1:23:23.160 --> 1:23:26.840
<v Speaker 1>do business in Russia can tell you. You know, someone

1:23:26.920 --> 1:23:30.800
<v Speaker 1>described the United States as a um a huge insurance

1:23:31.040 --> 1:23:34.680
<v Speaker 1>health insurance company with a standing army attached. Russia, on

1:23:34.720 --> 1:23:38.240
<v Speaker 1>the other hand, is a huge cuiminal enterprise with a

1:23:38.320 --> 1:23:41.439
<v Speaker 1>standing army attached. That's why would you want to go

1:23:41.520 --> 1:23:45.400
<v Speaker 1>there and do business? Last subject before we let you go,

1:23:45.880 --> 1:23:50.920
<v Speaker 1>so I know you're big into alternative energies and associated technologies.

1:23:51.479 --> 1:23:55.479
<v Speaker 1>What's interesting in that space these days, Well, we're driving

1:23:55.520 --> 1:24:00.920
<v Speaker 1>town the cost curve significantly in the classic uh, classic

1:24:01.000 --> 1:24:05.559
<v Speaker 1>alternative energies. I know that solar, solar wind, all of that.

1:24:05.840 --> 1:24:08.160
<v Speaker 1>I think what's coming to the fore and I believe

1:24:08.240 --> 1:24:12.639
<v Speaker 1>this for quite some time. Fuel cell technology is now

1:24:12.680 --> 1:24:15.760
<v Speaker 1>getting down to cost levels where I think it will

1:24:15.800 --> 1:24:19.599
<v Speaker 1>be a major impact, particularly like hydrogen fuel cell, Like

1:24:19.680 --> 1:24:23.480
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen fuel cell, and and if we've got alternative energies

1:24:23.600 --> 1:24:27.960
<v Speaker 1>and we're we're starting with water and we're using using

1:24:28.000 --> 1:24:31.840
<v Speaker 1>solar energy, let's say, to create hydrogen which then is

1:24:31.960 --> 1:24:35.559
<v Speaker 1>used to turn back into the water to power product.

1:24:35.800 --> 1:24:40.080
<v Speaker 1>That's ultimately I think the direction. I think electric cars

1:24:40.240 --> 1:24:43.400
<v Speaker 1>as we're defining them today is our interim and it's

1:24:43.400 --> 1:24:48.720
<v Speaker 1>a stop measure between gasoline and hydrogen and hydrogen dred

1:24:48.800 --> 1:24:52.400
<v Speaker 1>years away from full hydrogen cars or is it sooner

1:24:52.439 --> 1:24:55.120
<v Speaker 1>than that. I think it's sooner. I think you're in Japan.

1:24:55.320 --> 1:24:58.559
<v Speaker 1>That's one thing they're doing. The Japanese auto companies, which

1:24:58.600 --> 1:25:02.880
<v Speaker 1>are internally very competitive, are moving down the fuel cell track,

1:25:03.040 --> 1:25:06.200
<v Speaker 1>and they put in place the infrastructure for fueling on

1:25:06.320 --> 1:25:10.880
<v Speaker 1>that is hydrogen refueling. Yes, And we mentioned earlier the

1:25:10.920 --> 1:25:15.960
<v Speaker 1>falling price of oil. Isn't that a threat to traditional

1:25:16.040 --> 1:25:18.400
<v Speaker 1>things like solar and winds? It is a threat. It

1:25:18.520 --> 1:25:21.800
<v Speaker 1>is a threat. But you're again, technology is working for

1:25:21.920 --> 1:25:28.479
<v Speaker 1>you there. You're driving absolutely does so. The other question is,

1:25:28.520 --> 1:25:32.360
<v Speaker 1>I don't think there's enough alternative energies that are competitive

1:25:32.479 --> 1:25:37.000
<v Speaker 1>enough that that's making the price of oil drop. But

1:25:37.040 --> 1:25:40.160
<v Speaker 1>at a certain point, on the margin, it's an element

1:25:40.280 --> 1:25:43.559
<v Speaker 1>of supply. On the margin, it's an element of supply.

1:25:43.640 --> 1:25:47.720
<v Speaker 1>And if you add you know, fracking to the picture here,

1:25:47.920 --> 1:25:54.040
<v Speaker 1>which is major technological breakthrough as well, the supply picture

1:25:54.240 --> 1:25:56.760
<v Speaker 1>is just going to overwhelm. I don't care what the

1:25:56.760 --> 1:26:03.040
<v Speaker 1>growth rates are. The marcels um uh It's people have

1:26:03.400 --> 1:26:07.080
<v Speaker 1>literally said, there's five hundred years three hundred years of

1:26:07.880 --> 1:26:11.559
<v Speaker 1>natural gas consumption and they're still making fine To find

1:26:11.640 --> 1:26:15.160
<v Speaker 1>that they are now the technology needs to develop that

1:26:15.160 --> 1:26:20.360
<v Speaker 1>that five hundred years is not using today's fracking technology.

1:26:20.400 --> 1:26:23.599
<v Speaker 1>But again, you're moving down a path there, and and

1:26:23.640 --> 1:26:26.920
<v Speaker 1>the and the oil companies spent a lot on R

1:26:27.000 --> 1:26:30.400
<v Speaker 1>and D. It's it's not recognized as much, but they're

1:26:30.840 --> 1:26:37.000
<v Speaker 1>they're as technologically savvy and users of technology, even even

1:26:37.040 --> 1:26:39.880
<v Speaker 1>as much as you can see out a silicon valley

1:26:39.920 --> 1:26:44.559
<v Speaker 1>around the Internet. So how low can oil go before

1:26:44.640 --> 1:26:49.920
<v Speaker 1>it puts a crimp in all these alternative energy I

1:26:50.320 --> 1:26:53.439
<v Speaker 1>think I think if you saw, if you saw as

1:26:53.479 --> 1:26:59.160
<v Speaker 1>a marker, oil down around seventy dollars a barrel not

1:26:59.280 --> 1:27:04.479
<v Speaker 1>that far away. Yeah, that and what would that do

1:27:04.600 --> 1:27:06.880
<v Speaker 1>seventy dollar oil? What does that do to solar? What

1:27:06.920 --> 1:27:09.439
<v Speaker 1>does that do to win? Well, I think it slows

1:27:09.479 --> 1:27:14.000
<v Speaker 1>down the adoption, but I'm not so sure it slows down.

1:27:14.200 --> 1:27:19.599
<v Speaker 1>It actually may speed up the technological development in alternative energy.

1:27:19.640 --> 1:27:24.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, we haven't had a huge breakthrough in battery technology.

1:27:24.120 --> 1:27:27.760
<v Speaker 1>These have all been incremental improvements. And I was just

1:27:27.880 --> 1:27:31.160
<v Speaker 1>reading that too long ago. Some sort of a gel.

1:27:31.360 --> 1:27:35.040
<v Speaker 1>I can't remember the metal that underlines it, but it's

1:27:35.040 --> 1:27:39.559
<v Speaker 1>a metallic gel used for these new batteries and the

1:27:39.760 --> 1:27:44.360
<v Speaker 1>storage is the first order of magnitude breakthrough. Now I

1:27:44.360 --> 1:27:47.120
<v Speaker 1>don't know what the safety dangers and if it could

1:27:47.120 --> 1:27:50.160
<v Speaker 1>be commercialized, yeah, and how how big it can get.

1:27:50.320 --> 1:27:54.160
<v Speaker 1>There's actually a lot of technological work going on with

1:27:54.360 --> 1:27:58.719
<v Speaker 1>lead acid batteries, old lead acid batteries where you're using

1:27:58.880 --> 1:28:03.679
<v Speaker 1>nanotechnology for the cathodes and anodes and some mixture thereof.

1:28:03.880 --> 1:28:06.920
<v Speaker 1>You can increase the efficiency to the point where they

1:28:06.920 --> 1:28:10.000
<v Speaker 1>actually may be as competitive as they as you can

1:28:10.000 --> 1:28:13.640
<v Speaker 1>get with lithium as well. The the amazing thing is

1:28:13.800 --> 1:28:17.960
<v Speaker 1>that you can really improve technology and with all these

1:28:18.000 --> 1:28:21.800
<v Speaker 1>incremental changes, all these iterations, but when you get that

1:28:21.880 --> 1:28:26.320
<v Speaker 1>big breakthrough and you know there's one out there, it's

1:28:26.360 --> 1:28:29.080
<v Speaker 1>going to be such a game change. You imagine. You

1:28:29.120 --> 1:28:31.400
<v Speaker 1>know when when I used to have this drill, this

1:28:31.560 --> 1:28:35.840
<v Speaker 1>electric drill, with this big heavy battery, and for years

1:28:35.960 --> 1:28:38.160
<v Speaker 1>it was it was perfectly fine. Yeah, it was a

1:28:38.160 --> 1:28:40.840
<v Speaker 1>little heavy, and when you're done using it, you plugged

1:28:40.840 --> 1:28:42.800
<v Speaker 1>it and you had to charge it. When the new

1:28:42.880 --> 1:28:47.040
<v Speaker 1>litho lithium batteries came out, you just, oh my god.

1:28:47.120 --> 1:28:50.719
<v Speaker 1>These other things are just ancient technology. So you charge

1:28:50.720 --> 1:28:52.920
<v Speaker 1>this up. I have this. I have this leaf blower

1:28:53.439 --> 1:28:55.599
<v Speaker 1>that I got at home deep. I'm trying to remember

1:28:55.600 --> 1:28:57.920
<v Speaker 1>the name of it, but it's the home depot in

1:28:58.040 --> 1:29:02.439
<v Speaker 1>house brand. I charge this thing up, you forget about

1:29:02.479 --> 1:29:06.120
<v Speaker 1>it for a year. It's still it hasn't lost the charge.

1:29:06.120 --> 1:29:09.240
<v Speaker 1>It weighs half as much as the old one. So

1:29:09.439 --> 1:29:13.519
<v Speaker 1>I'm waiting for that next breakthrough. That's four times as

1:29:13.760 --> 1:29:17.160
<v Speaker 1>as powerful half to wait. And that's how it will happen.

1:29:17.280 --> 1:29:20.120
<v Speaker 1>And it's happening across the board. Is happening in the

1:29:20.200 --> 1:29:24.800
<v Speaker 1>medical area, is happening in data just in general, it's

1:29:24.840 --> 1:29:29.080
<v Speaker 1>happening in manufacturing. It's it's just across the board. It

1:29:29.120 --> 1:29:33.280
<v Speaker 1>makes me just very optimistic in spite of what happens

1:29:33.280 --> 1:29:37.080
<v Speaker 1>to the market on any given day. This this is uh,

1:29:37.160 --> 1:29:40.400
<v Speaker 1>this is an interesting time to be involved in watching

1:29:40.439 --> 1:29:43.200
<v Speaker 1>it and and maybe with what's going on in medical,

1:29:43.280 --> 1:29:45.000
<v Speaker 1>I'll get to watch it a lot longer than I

1:29:45.080 --> 1:29:47.360
<v Speaker 1>might have otherwised. You know. The last the last thing

1:29:47.600 --> 1:29:50.639
<v Speaker 1>I want to mention, and it's right on that point.

1:29:51.160 --> 1:29:54.000
<v Speaker 1>So we go to this conference um every other year.

1:29:54.439 --> 1:29:56.760
<v Speaker 1>It's out in California, and it's just a bunch of

1:29:56.800 --> 1:30:01.920
<v Speaker 1>young college kids showing off each their new technology ideas

1:30:01.960 --> 1:30:06.360
<v Speaker 1>and looking for venture investing. And you go through to

1:30:06.600 --> 1:30:09.840
<v Speaker 1>spend two days looking at these nineteen year old kids

1:30:10.160 --> 1:30:12.040
<v Speaker 1>and what comes out of there. And I'm in my

1:30:12.120 --> 1:30:14.679
<v Speaker 1>fifties now, so I'm I look at nineteen year olds

1:30:14.720 --> 1:30:19.400
<v Speaker 1>as kids, and it's impossible to have a negative outlook

1:30:19.840 --> 1:30:23.880
<v Speaker 1>when you just see this parade of brilliance and the

1:30:24.600 --> 1:30:30.800
<v Speaker 1>ingenuity and the new technologies. It looks as if every problem,

1:30:30.840 --> 1:30:34.719
<v Speaker 1>at least from a technology standpoint, can be solved, whether

1:30:34.840 --> 1:30:37.559
<v Speaker 1>India can get the politics in order in order to

1:30:37.600 --> 1:30:40.479
<v Speaker 1>fix their system or the United States can can get

1:30:40.560 --> 1:30:45.200
<v Speaker 1>their healthcare budget in order. It's not the technology that's

1:30:45.240 --> 1:30:48.840
<v Speaker 1>the problems, and it's not it's society that's around the

1:30:48.960 --> 1:30:52.200
<v Speaker 1>society that's around it. But see, I I get what

1:30:52.320 --> 1:30:54.679
<v Speaker 1>you get every two years. I get it every three

1:30:54.720 --> 1:30:57.400
<v Speaker 1>months when I go to the Ideal LAMB board meeting

1:30:57.479 --> 1:31:01.000
<v Speaker 1>and walk around that big warehouse with all of these companies.

1:31:01.640 --> 1:31:04.400
<v Speaker 1>You know, three people or maybe there's ten people. You've

1:31:04.400 --> 1:31:07.280
<v Speaker 1>got to sign up above them. This is what they're doing.

1:31:07.360 --> 1:31:10.040
<v Speaker 1>And you're watching these and they are kids, Well, everybody's

1:31:10.080 --> 1:31:13.360
<v Speaker 1>a kid to me. Now you're watching these kids with

1:31:13.479 --> 1:31:18.960
<v Speaker 1>such enthusiasm and such energy tackling a problem and it's

1:31:19.000 --> 1:31:21.600
<v Speaker 1>not they're not saying no, they're saying, we're going to

1:31:21.680 --> 1:31:24.759
<v Speaker 1>figure this out. Why not work the first time around,

1:31:24.760 --> 1:31:27.040
<v Speaker 1>but we'll figure it out. We'll figure I couldn't do

1:31:27.080 --> 1:31:28.680
<v Speaker 1>that every three months because it would just make me

1:31:28.760 --> 1:31:32.320
<v Speaker 1>too bullish. I have to have some objectivity and that

1:31:32.479 --> 1:31:36.360
<v Speaker 1>sort of stuff. I would just long and forget about

1:31:36.400 --> 1:31:39.120
<v Speaker 1>everything else. So I can only go every other year,

1:31:39.320 --> 1:31:41.679
<v Speaker 1>and that that's that carries me through, brings you back

1:31:41.720 --> 1:31:44.519
<v Speaker 1>into anyway, Jack, thank you so much for spending so

1:31:44.600 --> 1:31:47.759
<v Speaker 1>much time with us today. Um, you're just a font

1:31:47.960 --> 1:31:51.920
<v Speaker 1>of information and as always, it's a pleasure chatting with you. Well,

1:31:51.960 --> 1:31:54.960
<v Speaker 1>it's a pleasure chatting with you Berry. I always enjoyed

1:31:54.960 --> 1:32:00.280
<v Speaker 1>that you've been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Um,

1:32:00.280 --> 1:32:03.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna say that again. I'm Barry rid Halts. You've

1:32:03.120 --> 1:32:06.760
<v Speaker 1>been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. If

1:32:06.800 --> 1:32:10.120
<v Speaker 1>you're listening to this, you're obviously hearing the podcast. Be

1:32:10.200 --> 1:32:13.640
<v Speaker 1>sure and check out our other podcasts, which are archived

1:32:14.160 --> 1:32:18.240
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg dot com. In theory, we should be up

1:32:18.240 --> 1:32:23.240
<v Speaker 1>on Apple iTunes any day now. They've been dawdling. I

1:32:23.280 --> 1:32:26.040
<v Speaker 1>guess they're waiting for for Samsung to put us up first,

1:32:26.040 --> 1:32:30.479
<v Speaker 1>and then they'll they'll match that. That's my digit Apple.

1:32:30.960 --> 1:32:33.360
<v Speaker 1>Despite me owning little Apple products, I can't get our

1:32:33.439 --> 1:32:37.519
<v Speaker 1>damn podcast up there. Um. Follow me on Twitter at

1:32:37.600 --> 1:32:41.080
<v Speaker 1>rid Halts, or check out my daily column on Bloomberg

1:32:41.439 --> 1:32:45.280
<v Speaker 1>View dot com. You're listening to Masters in Business with

1:32:45.320 --> 1:32:47.679
<v Speaker 1>Barry rid Holts on Bloomberg Radio