WEBVTT - Is Wearable Tech a Red Flag?

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios.

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<v Speaker 2>Podcasts.

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<v Speaker 3>Radio.

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<v Speaker 4>News.

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<v Speaker 5>Okay, Max. Friday before Labor Day and August is.

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<v Speaker 1>We're still working. What's going on, Stacey?

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<v Speaker 2>I know.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't know. But we have a fun show.

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<v Speaker 6>I feel like it's both newsy but also a good

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<v Speaker 6>end of summer show. We're talking about Apple... Obviously, they

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<v Speaker 6>have a new CEO. They're about to release a.

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<v Speaker 5>Bunch of products.

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<v Speaker 6>We have the great Mark Gurman here to list off

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<v Speaker 6>all the products. And when I say all the products

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<v Speaker 6>Apple's going to be coming out with, it's.

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<v Speaker 1>All the products. Yes.

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<v Speaker 2>All of them.

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<v Speaker 1>Very comprehensive.

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<v Speaker 7>And we talk about these glasses, the quote-unquote pervert glasses,

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<v Speaker 7>which are showing up everywhere and which many people do

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<v Speaker 7>not like.

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<v Speaker 1>Mark has thoughts on... and we will get into it.

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<v Speaker 5>And also the end of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's the second topic. Bots making bots, yes.

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<v Speaker 2>Stick around.

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<v Speaker 1>We are going to talk about.

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<v Speaker 5>This is the way the world ends.

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<v Speaker 1>About the danger.

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<v Speaker 7>Oh, I thought you were going.

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<v Speaker 1>Sorry, I even missed.

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<v Speaker 7>I jumped ahead to the danger of world-ending plagues, but

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<v Speaker 7>you were talking about world-ending AI.

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<v Speaker 5>Actually, maybe that's the theme of the show.

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<v Speaker 7>We are going to talk with Jason Gale, Bloomberg Health reporter,

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<v Speaker 7>Bloomberg Health editor... about the ways in which the Trump

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<v Speaker 7>administration sort of cracked down on certain kinds of science

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<v Speaker 7>is playing out and the potential risks posed there.

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<v Speaker 5>It's the end of the world as we know it.

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<v Speaker 5>Welcome to September.

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<v Speaker 1>But hopefully not.

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<v Speaker 7>And, you know, we'll also talk about prediction markets somewhere

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<v Speaker 7>in there.

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<v Speaker 5>Yes, yes, the other end of the world.

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<v Speaker 6>All right, Max, you have a big feature in Business

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<v Speaker 6>Week right now, and it is about the business of viruses.

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<v Speaker 6>And it's interesting because sometimes COVID seems like it was

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<v Speaker 6>so long ago, but it wasn't actually all that long ago.

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<v Speaker 5>I feel like there are a few things that.

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<v Speaker 6>Have shaped our economy, our culture, our lives more than

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<v Speaker 6>that virus.

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<v Speaker 1>Absolutely, Stacey. I feel like it comes up.

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<v Speaker 7>In so many of our conversations, I think about the

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<v Speaker 7>ways in which it changed our lives.

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<v Speaker 1>It changed how we think about each other.

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<v Speaker 7>And it also changed our politics in ways that are

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<v Speaker 7>absolutely crazy.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, I think we're still living a lot of

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<v Speaker 6>that today. But you have a great portrait of a virologist,

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<v Speaker 6>one of the people who worked on COVID and who

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<v Speaker 6>also worked on HIV. This was his business. And just

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<v Speaker 6>how much things have changed. And you did the feature,

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<v Speaker 6>we should say, with Jason Gale, the global health editor

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<v Speaker 6>for Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 5>Hi, Jason, joining us from Australia.

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<v Speaker 8>Thank you for having me.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, Stacey, we couldn't do this without Jason. Jason has

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<v Speaker 7>a book about COVID called After COVID. It's all about

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<v Speaker 7>the economic and epidemiological consequences of the pandemic, all these

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<v Speaker 7>things that we're talking about. And he is really the

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<v Speaker 7>person who said to me and other Businessweek folks, like,

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<v Speaker 7>You guys should write about, we should write about this guy,

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<v Speaker 7>Bob Gehry. He's had a fascinating crossroads of a bunch

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<v Speaker 7>of different things.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, so Jason, tell us, for people who don't know

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<v Speaker 6>Bob Gehry, who was he and what role did he

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<v Speaker 6>play in the pandemic here in the U.S.

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<v Speaker 5>And I guess globally also?

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<v Speaker 8>Well, Bob is a microbiologist, virologist by specialty at Tulane

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<v Speaker 8>University down in New Orleans. He's been working on viruses

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<v Speaker 8>for close to 50 years. And his work before COVID

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<v Speaker 8>was really what was so important because he had already

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<v Speaker 8>laid the groundwork for rapid tests, which obviously became incredibly

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<v Speaker 8>important trying to do battle with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

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<v Speaker 1>So Bob is this renowned virologist.

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<v Speaker 7>He had done all this important work, and basically his

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<v Speaker 7>life was turned upside down by the COVID pandemic in

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<v Speaker 7>this very specific way, which is that he co-wrote a

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<v Speaker 7>paper called The Proximal Origins of SARS-CoV-2. And this was

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<v Speaker 7>a paper that came out in the very early days

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<v Speaker 7>of the pandemic, March, I believe, arguing that it was

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<v Speaker 7>very unlikely, implausible, that COVID came from a lab leak.

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<v Speaker 7>That he's saying that COVID essentially came because of natural origin,

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<v Speaker 7>which is the way that most viruses happen. And basically,

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<v Speaker 7>since then, his life has been turned upside down.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, he got, I think, $ 9 million from the government.

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<v Speaker 6>So he was in the mix, like, battling the disease,

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<v Speaker 6>trying to come up with tests, with cures, with antidotes.

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<v Speaker 6>And you both went to his lab in New Orleans,

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<v Speaker 6>and it's incredibly striking, this scene, because you go into

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<v Speaker 6>the lab, it's all this equipment there, all the equipment

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<v Speaker 6>you'd expect to see, but it's empty. How did he

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<v Speaker 6>get from $ 9 million, top of his field, to empty lab?

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<v Speaker 8>His funding was cut. Yeah. Basically, he was working in

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<v Speaker 8>a group called CREED, the Centers for Research in Emerging

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<v Speaker 8>Infectious Diseases, and had received a lot of money through

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<v Speaker 8>the National Institutes of Health. And that funding was essentially

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<v Speaker 8>cut about almost two years ago because the current administration

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<v Speaker 8>deemed it unsafe for Americans.

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<v Speaker 7>He and a bunch of other people were investigated, investigated

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<v Speaker 7>by Congress.

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<v Speaker 1>It's kind of a swirl of allegations, but.

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<v Speaker 7>Essentially, the allegation is that they, under government pressure, sort

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<v Speaker 7>of covered up the possibility of a lab leak.

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<v Speaker 1>And these are things that you.

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<v Speaker 7>Hear from very prominent people, from elected officials and so on,

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<v Speaker 7>there's a suggestion that Anthony Fauci somehow created the lab

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<v Speaker 7>leak and then covered it up or something like that.

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<v Speaker 1>Or helped to fund the lab.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, funded the lab that did the work and so on.

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<v Speaker 7>But the upshot is Fauci denies this and you had

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<v Speaker 7>these congressional hearings. Let me just play a clip from

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<v Speaker 7>Josh Hawley, a senator from Missouri, accuses him in this clip.

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<v Speaker 4>The intelligence community did not come to that conclusion. Multiple

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<v Speaker 4>intelligence communities agents and components have concluded it was likely

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<v Speaker 4>a lab leak. And they concluded that at the same

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<v Speaker 4>time that you and your people were propagandizing the American

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<v Speaker 4>public and using the channels and influence of the American

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<v Speaker 4>government to censor ordinary Americans. That is the truth. I'm

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<v Speaker 4>not going to sit here and allow you to lie

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<v Speaker 4>any further. Dr. Gary, you have disgracefully participated in shameful propaganda.

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<v Speaker 4>that has been one of the worst chapters in this

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<v Speaker 4>country's history with the government propagandizing its own people. And

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<v Speaker 4>you know what? I'm not a scientist. I don't know.

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<v Speaker 4>But what I do know is, what I do know is,

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<v Speaker 4>it is wrong to censor and lie to the American public.

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<v Speaker 4>It is wrong to withhold critical information from them. And

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<v Speaker 4>it is wrong to countenance that and to say, oh,

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<v Speaker 4>I just had nothing to do with it. Gee, I

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<v Speaker 4>wish we could have done better. You should have done better, sir.

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<v Speaker 4>You should have done better. And because you didn't, people

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<v Speaker 4>have suffered. Thank you, Mr.

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<v Speaker 7>Chairman.

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<v Speaker 5>It was interesting.

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<v Speaker 6>Is in the article you ask him several times about

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<v Speaker 6>the origins of COVID, and he's very scientific about his answers.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, he's like, well, I don't know. I just

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<v Speaker 6>did my scientific research. This is what I found. But

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<v Speaker 6>there's a lot of emotion around this, and he becomes

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<v Speaker 6>kind of a lightning rod, not just in front of Congress,

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<v Speaker 6>but he is getting death threats and things like that.

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<v Speaker 6>So walk us through that part of his story. So

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<v Speaker 6>he goes in front of Congress, and then what happens

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<v Speaker 6>to him?

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<v Speaker 7>I mean, it's basically sort of a public demonstration that politics,

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<v Speaker 7>that the people in power have decided that he's done

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<v Speaker 7>something very wrong. At the center of this, and Jason

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<v Speaker 7>and I get into this in the story, but the

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<v Speaker 7>big evidence, as far as many of the lab leakers

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<v Speaker 7>see it, that he did something wrong specifically and that

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<v Speaker 7>some of these scientists did something wrong, is that there

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<v Speaker 7>are private messages that early on in their research where

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<v Speaker 7>they express an openness to a lab leak. And then

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<v Speaker 7>they later wrote a paper saying they didn't believe in

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<v Speaker 7>the lab leak. And I think if you ask a

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<v Speaker 7>scientist about that, you ask Bob Gehry about that, he

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<v Speaker 7>would say, yeah, that's the scientific method.

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<v Speaker 1>That is like what we do. We look at evidence,

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<v Speaker 1>we consider them.

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<v Speaker 7>And even after we publish, we continue to be open

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<v Speaker 7>if new evidence emerges. And I think there's something about

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<v Speaker 7>the era that we live in today. We get a

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<v Speaker 7>release like that. And instead of looking at it like, oh,

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<v Speaker 7>these are some scientists who are being intellectually honest, it's

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<v Speaker 7>sort of like, aha, they believed one thing then and

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<v Speaker 7>now they believe a different thing.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's the crux of it.

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<v Speaker 8>Also, that helps to illustrate why the public lost so

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<v Speaker 8>much trust in science during the pandemic is that it

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<v Speaker 8>was just a misconception about how science works, that science

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<v Speaker 8>is an iterative process. that it's not like math where

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<v Speaker 8>one plus one equals two. In science, you're constantly challenging hypotheses.

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<v Speaker 8>You're testing them with doing experiments and looking at the

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<v Speaker 8>data and reanalyzing the data. But so far, the evidence

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<v Speaker 8>is in favor of it spilling over naturally, probably from

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<v Speaker 8>the market in Wuhan.

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<v Speaker 7>There's another factor, which is that many people, including Bob Gehry,

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<v Speaker 7>are trying to work within the system. And so Bob

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<v Speaker 7>is not exactly throwing up his hands and saying that

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<v Speaker 7>the Trump administration has destroyed all of science.

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<v Speaker 1>We write about this in the story.

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<v Speaker 7>He is trying to find ways to essentially sell the

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<v Speaker 7>Trump administration, sell the NIH, which still exists, which still

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<v Speaker 7>has a lot of money appropriated by Congress on the

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<v Speaker 7>research he's doing. And what's really happening is people like

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<v Speaker 7>him are just having to find different ways to sell

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<v Speaker 7>their research to decision makers. So like when we talk

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<v Speaker 7>to Bob today, he'll talk about the economic impact of

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<v Speaker 7>these viral pandemics. He has this really promising treatment for

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<v Speaker 7>loss of fever, which Jason mentioned, really bad. Hemorrhagic fever

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<v Speaker 7>kills 5,000 people a year or something like that. And

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<v Speaker 7>to convince the NIH to fund it, Bob is saying, hey,

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<v Speaker 7>if we don't deal with this, That's going to hurt U.S.

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<v Speaker 7>mining interests because West Africa is a place where there's

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<v Speaker 7>a lot.

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<v Speaker 1>Of mining, a lot of rare earths are mined.

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<v Speaker 7>And if you can't keep foreign mining companies safe, you're

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<v Speaker 7>not going to have that mining.

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<v Speaker 1>It's bad for U.S.

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<v Speaker 9>Interests.

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<v Speaker 7>So there's this kind of dance that many people who

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<v Speaker 7>have found themselves in these political storms have.

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<v Speaker 1>Have to do.

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<v Speaker 7>And I think that you see this with CEOs. We

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<v Speaker 7>saw this with Jerome Powell, Stacey. I kept thinking of

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<v Speaker 7>Jerome Powell as we were reporting this story.

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<v Speaker 6>You have been hanging around me for too long.

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<v Speaker 7>Because it's like you have these people who find themselves

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<v Speaker 7>at the center of a political storm and they have

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<v Speaker 7>to find a way. to sort of maintain their professional credibility,

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<v Speaker 7>not just sort of totally bend the knee to the

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<v Speaker 7>Trump administration. But they don't want to go full resistance

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<v Speaker 7>either because they want to try to, like, work within

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<v Speaker 7>the system.

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<v Speaker 6>There's a quote from your story that really stuck out

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<v Speaker 6>to me where Dr. Gary says, quote, we've just come

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<v Speaker 6>through this pandemic where 20 million people died.

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<v Speaker 5>And what's our response? We're going to shut down work

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<v Speaker 5>on viruses. I'm curious.

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<v Speaker 6>Maybe just personally about the man. What did he seem like?

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<v Speaker 6>Did he seem like he felt defeated? Did he seem energized?

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, it sounds like he's trying very hard to

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<v Speaker 6>work within the system. Is he considering moving?

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<v Speaker 8>I think Bob is a very stoic guy. He's weathered

0:11:51.270 --> 0:11:53.500
<v Speaker 8>a lot of storms. And perhaps we can talk a

0:11:53.520 --> 0:11:57.400
<v Speaker 8>little bit about what happened in Katrina. He's not flustered easily.

0:11:57.420 --> 0:12:03.609
<v Speaker 8>You saw him stand up in the congressional hearings and

0:12:03.990 --> 0:12:07.850
<v Speaker 8>sticking to his science as he was essentially being attacked.

0:12:08.150 --> 0:12:12.450
<v Speaker 8>He's baffled that this is the response, and I guess

0:12:12.510 --> 0:12:16.489
<v Speaker 8>frustrated that it's led to funding cuts and diminution of

0:12:16.530 --> 0:12:21.420
<v Speaker 8>his laboratory. But otherwise, I don't think that he is

0:12:21.679 --> 0:12:25.860
<v Speaker 8>unwavered in his pursuit of continuing to do science and

0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:32.270
<v Speaker 8>to benefit humans from treatments like a monoclonal antibody therapy

0:12:32.290 --> 0:12:33.170
<v Speaker 8>for Lassa fever.

0:12:33.770 --> 0:12:38.550
<v Speaker 7>How concerned are you as a reporter who's covered outbreaks,

0:12:38.570 --> 0:12:42.510
<v Speaker 7>who's covering the Ebola outbreak in Central Africa right now? Like,

0:12:42.740 --> 0:12:47.640
<v Speaker 7>how concerned are you about another pandemic? And how much

0:12:47.780 --> 0:12:50.840
<v Speaker 7>damage do you think has been done in the kind of,

0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:53.600
<v Speaker 7>in the sort of attack on science part of this?

0:12:53.950 --> 0:12:57.270
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, so I think if we look at the science part,

0:12:57.429 --> 0:13:01.270
<v Speaker 8>we have better innovations. We have the rapid tests. We

0:13:01.309 --> 0:13:05.839
<v Speaker 8>have mRNA technology. We have wastewater surveillance. We have a

0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:09.620
<v Speaker 8>number of tools that we didn't have before COVID-19. But

0:13:09.660 --> 0:13:15.960
<v Speaker 8>we also have misinformation. We have a lot of fragmentation, polarization, politicization.

0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:18.960
<v Speaker 8>We have a lot of societal elements that mean that

0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:23.059
<v Speaker 8>we are going to be screwed when the next thing

0:13:23.140 --> 0:13:26.420
<v Speaker 8>comes along. because we won't have anywhere near that kind

0:13:26.460 --> 0:13:30.540
<v Speaker 8>of unity. If it's the current administration, I don't think

0:13:30.580 --> 0:13:36.270
<v Speaker 8>that we'll have the science, the investments to really pursue

0:13:36.309 --> 0:13:39.730
<v Speaker 8>this and do what's necessary to stop it as fast.

0:13:39.550 --> 0:13:39.990
<v Speaker 9>As we can.

0:13:40.470 --> 0:13:42.240
<v Speaker 5>Jason, thank you so much for joining us.

0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:45.699
<v Speaker 1>Stay healthy, Jason. Bring us some good news next time.

0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:46.339
<v Speaker 9>All right.

0:13:53.070 --> 0:13:58.719
<v Speaker 7>Stacey Apple has a new CEO, John Ternes, replacing, sort

0:13:58.740 --> 0:14:00.720
<v Speaker 7>of replacing, joining Tim Cook.

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:01.460
<v Speaker 2>Yes.

0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:03.020
<v Speaker 5>Tim has not left.

0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:04.260
<v Speaker 1>In the C-suite.

0:14:04.970 --> 0:14:08.050
<v Speaker 7>Also, there's going to be a big Apple launch event.

0:14:08.270 --> 0:14:11.010
<v Speaker 7>Apple's got all these new products coming. And we've got

0:14:11.030 --> 0:14:13.410
<v Speaker 7>the man who has been reporting on all of this,

0:14:13.620 --> 0:14:14.300
<v Speaker 7>Mark Gurman.

0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:15.860
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Managing Editor.

0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:20.560
<v Speaker 7>He basically runs our consumer technology coverage and has been

0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:23.760
<v Speaker 7>covering Apple basically for as long as any of us

0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:24.520
<v Speaker 7>have been alive.

0:14:24.860 --> 0:14:25.440
<v Speaker 1>Welcome, Mark.

0:14:25.820 --> 0:14:27.060
<v Speaker 9>Thanks for having me. Good to be here.

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:28.820
<v Speaker 1>Mark, before we get to.

0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:32.380
<v Speaker 7>The Apple drama, I wanted to just talk about this

0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:36.450
<v Speaker 7>broader thing that seems to be happening in consumer media. electronics,

0:14:36.490 --> 0:14:40.670
<v Speaker 7>which is that we're seeing wearable technology come out in

0:14:40.700 --> 0:14:42.510
<v Speaker 7>a bigger way than ever before.

0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:45.180
<v Speaker 1>And people have strong feelings about this stuff.

0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:49.100
<v Speaker 7>And in fact, we sent Jasmine JT Green, our producer,

0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:53.780
<v Speaker 7>to the Apple flagship store on Fifth Avenue just to

0:14:53.820 --> 0:14:56.040
<v Speaker 7>kind of take the mood.

0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:58.120
<v Speaker 1>So let's just listen to that and then we can

0:14:58.140 --> 0:15:01.860
<v Speaker 1>get in the conversation. What is your relationship with wearable technology?

0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:04.740
<v Speaker 7>Almost nonexistent.

0:15:05.100 --> 0:15:08.670
<v Speaker 3>I think wearable technology has its advantages and its disadvantages.

0:15:08.970 --> 0:15:10.570
<v Speaker 3>But I think it can be useful for things like

0:15:10.730 --> 0:15:12.960
<v Speaker 3>accessibility and stuff like that. It can be really useful

0:15:12.980 --> 0:15:14.920
<v Speaker 3>for people like that. So it's a very mixed bag.

0:15:15.060 --> 0:15:18.140
<v Speaker 3>Completely not okay. Don't do that, please.

0:15:18.220 --> 0:15:19.940
<v Speaker 5>I don't have a problem being recorded.

0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:21.120
<v Speaker 1>That's not the issue for me.

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:23.700
<v Speaker 5>As long as it's away.

0:15:23.460 --> 0:15:24.460
<v Speaker 9>From me to you.

0:15:24.620 --> 0:15:26.390
<v Speaker 1>Do you feel like that's like a red flag? I.

0:15:27.260 --> 0:15:28.840
<v Speaker 3>probably try and educate them more on the side of

0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:30.460
<v Speaker 3>it because maybe they're just not aware, but I would

0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:31.480
<v Speaker 3>strongly discourage it.

0:15:31.980 --> 0:15:35.720
<v Speaker 7>Mark, what do you make of the kind of backlash?

0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:38.000
<v Speaker 7>You hear it a little bit in this clip. A

0:15:38.060 --> 0:15:40.239
<v Speaker 7>lot of people are buying these things, but then you're

0:15:40.260 --> 0:15:44.260
<v Speaker 7>also seeing bars banning them. You saw some very strong feel,

0:15:44.450 --> 0:15:46.910
<v Speaker 7>even some strong feelings in that little bit of tape.

0:15:47.390 --> 0:15:52.489
<v Speaker 9>I think that the concerns with AI are headed in

0:15:52.530 --> 0:15:57.310
<v Speaker 9>the wrong direction. I think people are concerned about smart

0:15:57.350 --> 0:16:01.590
<v Speaker 9>glasses recording you, smart glasses taking pictures of you, smart

0:16:01.630 --> 0:16:06.460
<v Speaker 9>glasses being used as surveillance devices. And the problem for

0:16:06.500 --> 0:16:10.660
<v Speaker 9>the industry is that these are coming from meta. And meta,

0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:13.940
<v Speaker 9>of all the big tech companies, has the worst privacy reputation.

0:16:13.980 --> 0:16:17.360
<v Speaker 9>This all goes back to the Cambridge Analytica saga, yeah,

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:21.490
<v Speaker 9>many years ago. I think if Apple was the first

0:16:21.550 --> 0:16:25.050
<v Speaker 9>mover on these types of products, it would not be

0:16:25.590 --> 0:16:29.030
<v Speaker 9>as significant of a backlash. You know, we're all talking

0:16:29.050 --> 0:16:30.250
<v Speaker 9>about AGI, right?

0:16:30.430 --> 0:16:32.190
<v Speaker 5>That's artificial generated intelligence.

0:16:32.570 --> 0:16:32.970
<v Speaker 2>General.

0:16:33.230 --> 0:16:36.190
<v Speaker 5>Or general intelligence. That's when the computers are like sentient.

0:16:36.550 --> 0:16:39.290
<v Speaker 9>Yes, that's when the computers are sentient. And people are

0:16:39.620 --> 0:16:43.320
<v Speaker 9>afraid of that. But there's actually something even more significant

0:16:43.340 --> 0:16:46.340
<v Speaker 9>than that that should be on people's radars. And that's

0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:49.220
<v Speaker 9>the time, and I think we're a year or two

0:16:49.260 --> 0:16:52.390
<v Speaker 9>away from this, that the AI gets so good AI

0:16:52.450 --> 0:16:55.540
<v Speaker 9>models can build their own AI models. And those models

0:16:56.100 --> 0:16:56.560
<v Speaker 9>can build.

0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:56.820
<v Speaker 7>Their own models.

0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:58.380
<v Speaker 5>A year away? That's like not that long away.

0:16:58.400 --> 0:16:58.980
<v Speaker 9>Probably a year or two.

0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:02.180
<v Speaker 6>So wait, paint this dystopian future for us, Mark. Okay,

0:17:02.200 --> 0:17:04.640
<v Speaker 6>so we've got AI building AI. Like, take us down

0:17:04.680 --> 0:17:05.460
<v Speaker 6>this dark road.

0:17:05.800 --> 0:17:07.720
<v Speaker 9>Well, to take you down the dark road, I mean,

0:17:08.010 --> 0:17:12.129
<v Speaker 9>just imagine how powerful the models are today. And imagine

0:17:12.170 --> 0:17:14.350
<v Speaker 9>how scary it's going to be if they're able to

0:17:14.390 --> 0:17:16.310
<v Speaker 9>create their own models that could do whatever they want.

0:17:16.730 --> 0:17:18.699
<v Speaker 5>Frankensteins making Frankensteins.

0:17:18.780 --> 0:17:19.040
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:21.800
<v Speaker 9>It's not the humans making the models anymore and setting

0:17:21.820 --> 0:17:24.880
<v Speaker 9>the parameters. It's the AI doing it. And what came

0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:27.659
<v Speaker 9>to my head was that this needs to be regulated

0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:29.500
<v Speaker 9>and needs to be regulated fast before it gets out

0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:32.060
<v Speaker 9>of control. And then I think about what Apple's doing.

0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:37.020
<v Speaker 9>And Apple has fallen, I would say, backwards into this

0:17:37.140 --> 0:17:40.620
<v Speaker 9>idea where they are doing AI. They call it responsible AI.

0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:43.199
<v Speaker 9>And they're doing it in a way where they're not overspending.

0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:47.659
<v Speaker 9>They're not a hyperscaler. And it's very limited degrees of AI.

0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:52.060
<v Speaker 9>And I'm thinking about, I'm like, look, ChatGPT, Claude, Siri AI,

0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.940
<v Speaker 9>these things are great as the new age search engine.

0:17:55.369 --> 0:17:57.510
<v Speaker 9>These things are great for getting things done. These things

0:17:57.550 --> 0:18:00.870
<v Speaker 9>are great for productivity. These things are great for creating files,

0:18:01.390 --> 0:18:04.770
<v Speaker 9>editing video, like everything that could be used to be

0:18:04.810 --> 0:18:09.090
<v Speaker 9>like an air pocket for the consumer, allowing customers, allowing users,

0:18:09.150 --> 0:18:12.070
<v Speaker 9>allowing workers to do what they do today, but giving

0:18:12.109 --> 0:18:14.609
<v Speaker 9>them a superpower, right? But once we were starting to

0:18:14.650 --> 0:18:18.560
<v Speaker 9>talk about the AI being in this agentic type of AI,

0:18:18.619 --> 0:18:21.179
<v Speaker 9>like AGI, and we started talking about models, creating their

0:18:21.200 --> 0:18:23.840
<v Speaker 9>own models, this is too much. We've gone too far.

0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:27.260
<v Speaker 9>And so the concerns are in the wrong place. It's

0:18:27.300 --> 0:18:30.109
<v Speaker 9>not about the hardware. It's about these models and then

0:18:30.150 --> 0:18:32.389
<v Speaker 9>being able to be duplicative.

0:18:33.190 --> 0:18:36.389
<v Speaker 7>Apple has a new CEO, mentioned him, John Ternes. They're

0:18:36.510 --> 0:18:39.390
<v Speaker 7>about to unveil a bunch of new products. Mark, take

0:18:39.450 --> 0:18:43.340
<v Speaker 7>us through kind of your expectation of for what Apple's

0:18:43.500 --> 0:18:45.160
<v Speaker 7>pipeline looks like?

0:18:45.380 --> 0:18:46.990
<v Speaker 1>What are they going to announce at this event?

0:18:47.030 --> 0:18:49.450
<v Speaker 7>And then what's coming in kind of the near term,

0:18:49.570 --> 0:18:53.470
<v Speaker 7>you know, before the AI steals our humanity, hopefully.

0:18:54.090 --> 0:18:54.290
<v Speaker 1>Okay.

0:18:54.490 --> 0:18:58.830
<v Speaker 9>So Tim Cook takes over 2011, 10 year ends, just,

0:18:58.869 --> 0:19:01.690
<v Speaker 9>you know, the last week or so. Major new product

0:19:01.710 --> 0:19:06.990
<v Speaker 9>categories under Tim Cook. The Apple Watch, the AirPods, and

0:19:07.030 --> 0:19:10.630
<v Speaker 9>the Apple Vision Pro. Three. Supposed to be more, but

0:19:10.820 --> 0:19:13.040
<v Speaker 9>really let's just say it was three. It's not many.

0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:15.420
<v Speaker 9>If you want to count the Vision Pro, I mean,

0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:17.270
<v Speaker 9>some would count it, some wouldn't count it because it's

0:19:17.290 --> 0:19:18.150
<v Speaker 9>such a dud. Oh, those marks.

0:19:18.290 --> 0:19:20.310
<v Speaker 1>So many iPhones sold. So many iPhones.

0:19:20.390 --> 0:19:21.230
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yeah, yeah. Fine.

0:19:21.510 --> 0:19:25.409
<v Speaker 9>But these next two to three years are going to

0:19:25.450 --> 0:19:29.950
<v Speaker 9>be the most prolific new product years in Apple's history.

0:19:30.760 --> 0:19:33.560
<v Speaker 9>Tim had three major new product categories in 15 years.

0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:37.300
<v Speaker 9>We're talking close to 10 major new product categories in

0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:42.000
<v Speaker 9>the next opening act of John Ternus' tenure. It'll all start.

0:19:42.740 --> 0:19:46.200
<v Speaker 9>next Wednesday at the Apple Surprise and Shine event, with

0:19:46.270 --> 0:19:50.450
<v Speaker 9>no surprises. You'll see the company's first foldable iPhone. That'll

0:19:50.490 --> 0:19:54.330
<v Speaker 9>be a major new product category. The other major new

0:19:54.350 --> 0:19:59.340
<v Speaker 9>product category being launched this year is a smart home display.

0:19:59.480 --> 0:20:02.580
<v Speaker 9>So it's like an Amazon Echo Show. It's got a

0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:05.639
<v Speaker 9>seven inch square screen, has facial recognition. You walk up

0:20:05.680 --> 0:20:07.960
<v Speaker 9>to it, have a bunch of people in the house.

0:20:08.060 --> 0:20:09.780
<v Speaker 9>It'll know who's who and it'll tailor the product to

0:20:09.820 --> 0:20:12.619
<v Speaker 9>your needs. content on the display and in the Siri

0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:16.220
<v Speaker 9>AI to whoever's talking. So that's another new category that'll

0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:19.050
<v Speaker 9>either be announced at this event or in October, but

0:20:19.070 --> 0:20:21.430
<v Speaker 9>it should be out before end of year or early

0:20:21.490 --> 0:20:25.550
<v Speaker 9>next year. That's two product categories, right? In the first

0:20:25.609 --> 0:20:29.690
<v Speaker 9>couple months of Ternus, right? Third major new product category.

0:20:29.880 --> 0:20:33.340
<v Speaker 9>So three product categories in three months versus in 15 years,

0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:37.300
<v Speaker 9>touchscreen MacBook. That'll come out before end of year or

0:20:37.380 --> 0:20:39.440
<v Speaker 9>early next year as well. In terms of some of

0:20:39.460 --> 0:20:43.320
<v Speaker 9>the other incremental stuff this year you'll see new airpods

0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:46.750
<v Speaker 9>the low-end airpods uh you'll see the iphone 18 pro

0:20:46.790 --> 0:20:50.830
<v Speaker 9>and 18 pro max and you'll see a revamped ipad

0:20:50.850 --> 0:20:52.990
<v Speaker 9>mini with an oled display so the first time they're

0:20:53.010 --> 0:20:55.429
<v Speaker 9>bringing oled to the mini and that touch macbook i

0:20:55.470 --> 0:20:57.980
<v Speaker 9>mentioned will also have oled i've got a lot more

0:20:58.020 --> 0:20:58.399
<v Speaker 9>but you.

0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:00.919
<v Speaker 6>First there are more no no keep going and we

0:21:00.940 --> 0:21:02.740
<v Speaker 6>should just say mark's got a whole.

0:21:02.580 --> 0:21:05.040
<v Speaker 7>Article all about this that you should check out but

0:21:05.080 --> 0:21:06.619
<v Speaker 7>keep going mark what happens next year.

0:21:06.850 --> 0:21:08.870
<v Speaker 9>And then you enter the first half of next year

0:21:09.010 --> 0:21:11.290
<v Speaker 9>and you've got a ton of additional things. You have

0:21:11.330 --> 0:21:15.670
<v Speaker 9>a new low-end MacBook Pro with an M7 chip. You've

0:21:15.730 --> 0:21:21.800
<v Speaker 9>got the iPhone Air 2 in the spring. You have

0:21:21.820 --> 0:21:25.800
<v Speaker 9>the iPhone 18 regular in the spring. You have the

0:21:25.940 --> 0:21:30.460
<v Speaker 9>iPhone 18E, so the low-end phone, in the spring. You

0:21:30.500 --> 0:21:34.720
<v Speaker 9>have a new entry-level iPad, new iPad Air, new iPad

0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:38.389
<v Speaker 9>Pro in the spring. new Apple Pencils in the spring.

0:21:39.369 --> 0:21:41.490
<v Speaker 9>Then you go to the second half of next year.

0:21:42.070 --> 0:21:46.770
<v Speaker 9>You've got second generation versions of the touchscreen MacBooks, along

0:21:46.790 --> 0:21:50.240
<v Speaker 9>with the first M7 Pro and M7 Max chips, which

0:21:50.260 --> 0:21:52.460
<v Speaker 9>are going to be a pretty big advancement over the

0:21:52.560 --> 0:21:55.740
<v Speaker 9>M6s that just started rolling out. And then you have

0:21:55.760 --> 0:21:59.460
<v Speaker 9>the second generation foldable iPhone next fall. You have the

0:21:59.740 --> 0:22:02.510
<v Speaker 9>AirPods with cameras next fall. There's more.

0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:04.540
<v Speaker 5>AirPods with cameras?

0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:06.669
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about that. Yeah. Wait, wait, hold on.

0:22:06.710 --> 0:22:07.610
<v Speaker 9>I need to finish my list.

0:22:07.670 --> 0:22:08.330
<v Speaker 3>Oh, my God.

0:22:08.350 --> 0:22:09.690
<v Speaker 1>This is amazing, Mark.

0:22:09.730 --> 0:22:13.010
<v Speaker 9>Keep going. You've got the smart glasses next fall. Okay,

0:22:13.070 --> 0:22:16.689
<v Speaker 9>Apple's first glasses. And then you have the cherry and

0:22:16.710 --> 0:22:19.540
<v Speaker 9>whipped cream and nuts and chocolate syrup and caramel on

0:22:19.580 --> 0:22:22.439
<v Speaker 9>top of everything. You have the iPhone 20, the 20th

0:22:22.480 --> 0:22:26.200
<v Speaker 9>anniversary iPhone, a complete redesign to the pro phones. Curved

0:22:26.240 --> 0:22:28.660
<v Speaker 9>glass on both sides on all four edges to mark

0:22:28.800 --> 0:22:32.369
<v Speaker 9>the two-decade anniversary of of the product that is the

0:22:32.410 --> 0:22:35.230
<v Speaker 9>center of everything. And so, yeah, there's a lot.

0:22:36.369 --> 0:22:36.770
<v Speaker 1>Wow.

0:22:37.130 --> 0:22:38.570
<v Speaker 9>Remind me to tell you about the other stuff.

0:22:39.010 --> 0:22:40.889
<v Speaker 6>I wanted a foldable phone, but I didn't get one

0:22:40.930 --> 0:22:42.310
<v Speaker 6>because I'm in the Apple universe.

0:22:42.330 --> 0:22:43.230
<v Speaker 5>So I had to wait.

0:22:43.530 --> 0:22:45.429
<v Speaker 9>And you and I will be first in line for

0:22:45.450 --> 0:22:48.870
<v Speaker 9>this thing because I cannot freaking wait.

0:22:49.109 --> 0:22:50.350
<v Speaker 1>Mark, let her rip.

0:22:50.490 --> 0:22:52.930
<v Speaker 9>I am so excited for the foldable phone. You have

0:22:53.150 --> 0:22:54.950
<v Speaker 9>no idea. I love tech.

0:22:55.060 --> 0:22:55.379
<v Speaker 5>Okay.

0:22:55.430 --> 0:22:58.400
<v Speaker 9>I'm obsessed. And I've been dreaming as a tech fanatic

0:22:58.460 --> 0:23:00.909
<v Speaker 9>of having something new for so long And this is

0:23:00.930 --> 0:23:03.630
<v Speaker 9>going to be the first time in a decade plus

0:23:03.650 --> 0:23:05.729
<v Speaker 9>that there's going to be something wholly new. When was

0:23:05.760 --> 0:23:07.600
<v Speaker 9>the last time you got a new iPhone or it

0:23:07.640 --> 0:23:09.520
<v Speaker 9>actually felt new? The iPhone 10.

0:23:09.520 --> 0:23:11.060
<v Speaker 5>Oh, years and years.

0:23:11.060 --> 0:23:13.280
<v Speaker 9>2017, when they removed the home button, went to Face ID.

0:23:13.740 --> 0:23:16.700
<v Speaker 9>I've been using the Samsung Z Fold 8, which is,

0:23:17.340 --> 0:23:19.740
<v Speaker 9>you can ask who ripped off who, but it's the

0:23:19.820 --> 0:23:24.260
<v Speaker 9>Android equivalent for this upcoming foldable phone. It's adorable. It's amazing.

0:23:24.570 --> 0:23:27.410
<v Speaker 9>It fits well in your pocket. I love the passport

0:23:27.490 --> 0:23:30.330
<v Speaker 9>size display where it's like it's shorter. And then you

0:23:30.430 --> 0:23:31.690
<v Speaker 9>open it up and it's like the size of an

0:23:31.730 --> 0:23:34.970
<v Speaker 9>iPad mini. It's amazing as joysticks for gaming. Hopefully you

0:23:34.990 --> 0:23:36.490
<v Speaker 9>can get the new Grand Theft Auto on there, but

0:23:36.530 --> 0:23:39.640
<v Speaker 9>I think that'll be a while. You've got iPad-like apps.

0:23:39.700 --> 0:23:43.880
<v Speaker 9>You've got split-screen multitasking. You've got video watching, right? Everyone's

0:23:43.900 --> 0:23:46.360
<v Speaker 9>just watching video. I don't see the need for using

0:23:46.380 --> 0:23:49.090
<v Speaker 9>an iPad anymore after using this thing. So it's amazing.

0:23:49.500 --> 0:23:52.120
<v Speaker 1>All right. I love it. I'm excited to see this.

0:23:52.200 --> 0:23:53.700
<v Speaker 1>I'm excited to see how it folds.

0:23:53.740 --> 0:23:54.669
<v Speaker 5>Are you going to get one?

0:23:54.930 --> 0:23:55.410
<v Speaker 1>Hell no.

0:23:56.310 --> 0:23:59.510
<v Speaker 7>But I respect Mark's enthusiasm. I just want to bring

0:23:59.550 --> 0:24:03.750
<v Speaker 7>it back to where we started because, Mark, you mentioned

0:24:05.090 --> 0:24:09.330
<v Speaker 7>the AirPods with the cameras, I believe, on the sides.

0:24:09.650 --> 0:24:14.380
<v Speaker 7>You mentioned that Apple's been working on its own smart glasses.

0:24:14.720 --> 0:24:17.500
<v Speaker 7>You also mentioned how people feel about these meta glasses.

0:24:17.760 --> 0:24:20.139
<v Speaker 7>I want to play one more clip And then I'm

0:24:20.160 --> 0:24:22.300
<v Speaker 7>gonna ask you a question about what Apple's gonna do differently.

0:24:22.359 --> 0:24:27.810
<v Speaker 7>Let's hear Lorde, the singer-songwriter, giving her review of the

0:24:28.070 --> 0:24:30.110
<v Speaker 7>Meta smart glasses. I'd say it's a little bit less

0:24:30.150 --> 0:24:33.070
<v Speaker 7>enthusiastic than Mark's feelings about the foldable phone.

0:24:33.930 --> 0:24:37.389
<v Speaker 2>Increasingly in our world, it gets harder and harder to

0:24:37.410 --> 0:24:42.250
<v Speaker 2>know what is real. You don't know if someone's wearing

0:24:42.310 --> 0:24:50.010
<v Speaker 2>sunglasses or if they're wearing those. Can I just say,

0:24:50.250 --> 0:24:59.060
<v Speaker 2>for the record, the glasses. Don't get the glasses, not sexy.

0:25:01.100 --> 0:25:03.060
<v Speaker 7>So that's Lorde at a music festival. I mean, Mark,

0:25:03.119 --> 0:25:04.959
<v Speaker 7>how is Apple going to turn this around? I mean,

0:25:05.180 --> 0:25:09.920
<v Speaker 7>you got people right now mad about license plate readers, right?

0:25:09.940 --> 0:25:12.770
<v Speaker 7>There are huge protests about these flock cameras. It's almost

0:25:12.869 --> 0:25:16.859
<v Speaker 7>impossible in my mind to see Apple almost any of

0:25:16.900 --> 0:25:19.879
<v Speaker 7>these kind of new form factors, whether it's the pendant,

0:25:20.240 --> 0:25:24.169
<v Speaker 7>whether it's AirPods with cameras, whether it's glasses, any of

0:25:24.210 --> 0:25:26.830
<v Speaker 7>them really taking off in this current moment, what do

0:25:26.850 --> 0:25:28.129
<v Speaker 7>you think Apple can do?

0:25:28.670 --> 0:25:32.310
<v Speaker 9>It's going to be a challenge for their PR department

0:25:32.369 --> 0:25:34.880
<v Speaker 9>and their marketing department and their engineering departments to work

0:25:34.890 --> 0:25:37.000
<v Speaker 9>together on how to fix this thing. There's going to

0:25:37.020 --> 0:25:40.619
<v Speaker 9>be a bunch of privacy controls. There's going to be

0:25:40.660 --> 0:25:42.860
<v Speaker 9>a series of lights on the front of the Apple

0:25:42.880 --> 0:25:45.649
<v Speaker 9>glasses so people know when you're recording. But I don't know.

0:25:45.670 --> 0:25:47.949
<v Speaker 9>You'll still have Lorde being upset about it, but I

0:25:47.970 --> 0:25:51.540
<v Speaker 9>think it's overblown for Apple. But let's talk about the

0:25:51.560 --> 0:25:55.800
<v Speaker 9>AirPods with cameras. So AirPods with cameras, they have cameras,

0:25:56.240 --> 0:25:58.480
<v Speaker 9>but the cameras are developed in such a way where

0:25:58.500 --> 0:26:01.030
<v Speaker 9>it can't actually record footage. And so if these are

0:26:01.050 --> 0:26:02.270
<v Speaker 9>the ones with cameras, what I would.

0:26:02.150 --> 0:26:04.010
<v Speaker 5>Be seeing— They can only take, like, snapshots?

0:26:04.369 --> 0:26:07.470
<v Speaker 9>No, it's a depth map. It's a depth map. So

0:26:07.770 --> 0:26:10.250
<v Speaker 9>it doesn't record or have the ability to take in

0:26:10.310 --> 0:26:12.369
<v Speaker 9>footage in a way where you're getting a color picture

0:26:12.390 --> 0:26:12.810
<v Speaker 9>of you too.

0:26:13.070 --> 0:26:15.670
<v Speaker 7>It's not, in other words, an optical camera. It's not

0:26:15.690 --> 0:26:17.600
<v Speaker 7>a camera to take photos or video.

0:26:17.660 --> 0:26:19.940
<v Speaker 9>That's exactly right. It's, I'm trying to think of the

0:26:19.980 --> 0:26:23.960
<v Speaker 9>most appropriate metaphor for this. You ever see those like

0:26:24.000 --> 0:26:26.460
<v Speaker 9>spy movies where they're going to launch a rocket from,

0:26:27.220 --> 0:26:30.239
<v Speaker 9>you know, an airplane 30,000 feet in the air and

0:26:30.280 --> 0:26:32.480
<v Speaker 9>like you see the display and all you see is

0:26:32.510 --> 0:26:35.830
<v Speaker 9>like dots of people, you know. Walking around or whatever.

0:26:36.010 --> 0:26:37.890
<v Speaker 9>And it's not like the actual video footage of them

0:26:38.290 --> 0:26:40.969
<v Speaker 9>because the satellite doesn't have that level of detail. It's

0:26:40.990 --> 0:26:42.670
<v Speaker 9>kind of like that. It's like a depth map.

0:26:42.950 --> 0:26:45.250
<v Speaker 5>What are they for? Like what is the camera for?

0:26:45.310 --> 0:26:46.050
<v Speaker 1>What's the purpose?

0:26:47.510 --> 0:26:52.560
<v Speaker 9>Let's see. Remind me to get rigatoni when I'm in

0:26:52.600 --> 0:26:57.000
<v Speaker 9>the pasta aisle. And when I'm in the pasta aisle

0:26:57.380 --> 0:26:59.919
<v Speaker 9>and I'm looking past the rigatoni, it'll say, hey, you're

0:26:59.940 --> 0:27:00.900
<v Speaker 9>looking right at the rigatoni.

0:27:01.619 --> 0:27:04.500
<v Speaker 7>I do think the potential marketing message of it's just

0:27:04.580 --> 0:27:09.920
<v Speaker 7>like a killer drone would see, that may need some

0:27:09.960 --> 0:27:11.460
<v Speaker 7>refining in this current moment.

0:27:11.560 --> 0:27:13.810
<v Speaker 9>Put it this way. If I was an Apple PR

0:27:13.850 --> 0:27:17.070
<v Speaker 9>and communications and marketing, that wouldn't be my suggestion of

0:27:17.119 --> 0:27:17.940
<v Speaker 9>a metaphor.

0:27:18.550 --> 0:27:19.149
<v Speaker 1>Yes.

0:27:19.230 --> 0:27:21.370
<v Speaker 5>You've got to scrap the killer drone analogy.

0:27:21.570 --> 0:27:25.330
<v Speaker 9>But since I'm on everybody's business, I'm good to be honest.

0:27:25.630 --> 0:27:25.919
<v Speaker 1>We love it.

0:27:25.950 --> 0:27:27.070
<v Speaker 5>We appreciate the realness.

0:27:27.850 --> 0:27:30.450
<v Speaker 7>Mark, we'll have to have you back on to cover–

0:27:30.770 --> 0:27:34.210
<v Speaker 7>you know, the next, what is it, the years two

0:27:34.270 --> 0:27:36.670
<v Speaker 7>through 10 of the Apple product roadmap?

0:27:36.770 --> 0:27:38.550
<v Speaker 9>Well, let me give you a couple more. Let me

0:27:38.570 --> 0:27:39.790
<v Speaker 9>give you a couple more. Let me just give you

0:27:39.810 --> 0:27:41.969
<v Speaker 9>two more. Let me give you two more. If we're

0:27:41.990 --> 0:27:44.740
<v Speaker 9>talking about robots and AI taking over the world. So

0:27:45.260 --> 0:27:47.940
<v Speaker 9>we talked about the AirPods and how they work with cameras.

0:27:48.700 --> 0:27:53.199
<v Speaker 9>What if you had an in-home security system, an in-home

0:27:53.240 --> 0:27:57.230
<v Speaker 9>camera system, and the marketing message for that was it's

0:27:57.270 --> 0:28:01.359
<v Speaker 9>the first in-home camera system that can sense everything going on,

0:28:01.800 --> 0:28:05.640
<v Speaker 9>but it's not actually recording anything. So imagine AirPods, like

0:28:05.660 --> 0:28:08.540
<v Speaker 9>I just described, but as an in-home security camera. The

0:28:08.580 --> 0:28:11.520
<v Speaker 9>first ultimate privacy-centric in-home security camera.

0:28:11.540 --> 0:28:14.040
<v Speaker 6>Especially with facial recognition, it would know if someone entered

0:28:14.060 --> 0:28:15.800
<v Speaker 6>the house who was a stranger.

0:28:16.080 --> 0:28:18.220
<v Speaker 9>Yes. So it could do everything, or it's supposed to

0:28:18.240 --> 0:28:20.369
<v Speaker 9>be able to do everything. that a normal security camera

0:28:20.390 --> 0:28:23.129
<v Speaker 9>can do without actually recording footage and seeing you walking

0:28:23.170 --> 0:28:24.390
<v Speaker 9>around naked through your house, right?

0:28:24.730 --> 0:28:27.150
<v Speaker 1>Wait, and Mark, is this something that you're just, you

0:28:27.230 --> 0:28:28.450
<v Speaker 1>think could happen.

0:28:28.210 --> 0:28:30.609
<v Speaker 9>Or that you've heard? No, no, no, no, no.

0:28:30.750 --> 0:28:31.130
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah.

0:28:31.490 --> 0:28:32.090
<v Speaker 9>This is happening.

0:28:32.970 --> 0:28:33.230
<v Speaker 1>Okay.

0:28:33.570 --> 0:28:35.150
<v Speaker 9>It's called J450 internally.

0:28:36.230 --> 0:28:37.370
<v Speaker 5>So here's the issue though.

0:28:37.930 --> 0:28:41.120
<v Speaker 6>When the bots start building bots who start building bots,

0:28:41.340 --> 0:28:42.420
<v Speaker 6>they could break into this.

0:28:42.900 --> 0:28:43.440
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, well.

0:28:43.520 --> 0:28:44.360
<v Speaker 5>And modify it.

0:28:45.420 --> 0:28:46.280
<v Speaker 9>I guess that's for another day.

0:28:46.300 --> 0:28:48.300
<v Speaker 5>And then, Yes, that's for another day.

0:28:48.520 --> 0:28:50.520
<v Speaker 7>Mark Gurman, thanks for being here. Good luck covering all

0:28:50.540 --> 0:28:52.540
<v Speaker 7>this over the next week. Everyone should go check out

0:28:52.580 --> 0:28:55.840
<v Speaker 7>his piece on Bloomberg.com. Subscribe to his newsletter, Power On.

0:28:55.880 --> 0:28:57.600
<v Speaker 7>Thanks again for joining us.

0:28:57.960 --> 0:28:58.540
<v Speaker 9>Thanks for having me.

0:29:06.060 --> 0:29:06.700
<v Speaker 1>Stacey?

0:29:07.240 --> 0:29:07.500
<v Speaker 2>Yes.

0:29:07.860 --> 0:29:08.940
<v Speaker 1>It's that time again.

0:29:09.100 --> 0:29:10.260
<v Speaker 5>What time is it?

0:29:10.280 --> 0:29:20.150
<v Speaker 7>This week in Prediction Markets, complete with our very own Sting. Stacey,

0:29:20.170 --> 0:29:21.770
<v Speaker 7>do you know what's going on in prediction markets or

0:29:21.790 --> 0:29:23.430
<v Speaker 7>do you want me to lay it out for you?

0:29:23.620 --> 0:29:24.740
<v Speaker 7>I've been following this very closely.

0:29:24.960 --> 0:29:29.040
<v Speaker 6>I have not been following this very closely. Update us

0:29:29.480 --> 0:29:31.540
<v Speaker 6>what is happening in the wide world of prediction markets.

0:29:31.600 --> 0:29:35.810
<v Speaker 7>People are still gambling on stuff, but don't call it gambling, Stacey,

0:29:36.030 --> 0:29:38.600
<v Speaker 7>or some lawyers from Calshi will be very, very mad.

0:29:39.000 --> 0:29:40.160
<v Speaker 1>George Santos. What is it?

0:29:40.480 --> 0:29:43.120
<v Speaker 7>It is technically a derivatives trade.

0:29:43.180 --> 0:29:46.900
<v Speaker 1>It is a swap, legally speaking. You are making an investment.

0:29:47.020 --> 0:29:51.980
<v Speaker 7>You are not gambling, according to Calshi and the CFTC,

0:29:52.020 --> 0:29:58.270
<v Speaker 7>the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which regulates things like oil

0:29:58.290 --> 0:30:03.170
<v Speaker 7>futures and so on. They have decided that prediction markets

0:30:03.630 --> 0:30:07.330
<v Speaker 7>are basically the same as buying or selling futures. This

0:30:07.450 --> 0:30:11.670
<v Speaker 7>has worked out really, really well for Kalshi and Polymarket.

0:30:11.690 --> 0:30:12.430
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I bet it has.

0:30:12.490 --> 0:30:14.710
<v Speaker 1>They've been running ads saying.

0:30:15.270 --> 0:30:19.010
<v Speaker 7>that now you can bet on sports legally because technically

0:30:19.270 --> 0:30:21.290
<v Speaker 7>our trades are not sports betting.

0:30:21.610 --> 0:30:23.030
<v Speaker 1>We've talked about this on the show.

0:30:23.050 --> 0:30:27.300
<v Speaker 6>Remember breakfast cereal ads for, like, really bad, like, sugary cereals,

0:30:27.400 --> 0:30:29.380
<v Speaker 6>and they would say it's part of this complete breakfast?

0:30:29.600 --> 0:30:32.060
<v Speaker 5>It feels like it's part of your investment portfolio.

0:30:32.360 --> 0:30:34.140
<v Speaker 7>The thing is, like, I don't even know how to

0:30:34.220 --> 0:30:38.750
<v Speaker 7>talk about it because Kalshi sometimes— actually goes around saying

0:30:38.790 --> 0:30:42.890
<v Speaker 7>it's betting. And there are all these instances of ads

0:30:42.930 --> 0:30:45.790
<v Speaker 7>and at times even like their slogan has included the

0:30:45.830 --> 0:30:49.020
<v Speaker 7>word bet. On the other hand, officially speaking, we're not

0:30:49.060 --> 0:30:52.940
<v Speaker 7>allowed to call it betting. It's technically trading. Now, I

0:30:53.000 --> 0:30:55.420
<v Speaker 7>should say this is under dispute. There are a bunch

0:30:55.480 --> 0:30:59.540
<v Speaker 7>of states that have sought to essentially toss Cal Sheehan

0:30:59.560 --> 0:31:03.590
<v Speaker 7>Polymarket out on the grounds that they are regulating sports betting,

0:31:03.610 --> 0:31:04.850
<v Speaker 7>that if you want to place a bet on sports.

0:31:04.870 --> 0:31:05.450
<v Speaker 8>That it is a bet.

0:31:05.730 --> 0:31:06.030
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:31:06.050 --> 0:31:06.410
<v Speaker 1>Okay.

0:31:06.770 --> 0:31:10.530
<v Speaker 7>And- Until now, courts had been sort of up in

0:31:10.550 --> 0:31:13.890
<v Speaker 7>the air. There had been one federal court in New

0:31:13.930 --> 0:31:17.990
<v Speaker 7>Jersey that basically allowed Kalshi to keep offering what it's offering.

0:31:18.280 --> 0:31:21.440
<v Speaker 7>But now the new development, the Ninth Circuit, which is

0:31:21.500 --> 0:31:25.960
<v Speaker 7>a federal court, ruled in favor of essentially the states

0:31:26.100 --> 0:31:30.700
<v Speaker 7>and the casino industry that Kalshi's sports bets are in

0:31:30.740 --> 0:31:35.020
<v Speaker 7>fact bets. Therefore, you can no longer bet on sports

0:31:36.360 --> 0:31:38.740
<v Speaker 7>on Kalshi. in the state of Nevada or any other

0:31:38.780 --> 0:31:39.760
<v Speaker 7>state in the Ninth Circuit.

0:31:39.780 --> 0:31:42.760
<v Speaker 5>That's California and stuff. That's a big deal for Kalshi.

0:31:43.160 --> 0:31:43.900
<v Speaker 1>That's a big deal.

0:31:43.960 --> 0:31:44.720
<v Speaker 5>Is that final, though?

0:31:45.120 --> 0:31:47.719
<v Speaker 7>No, this is going to end up in the Supreme Court.

0:31:47.780 --> 0:31:50.240
<v Speaker 7>Kalshi is going to appeal it. You also have multiple

0:31:50.820 --> 0:31:52.440
<v Speaker 7>jurisdictions have said different things.

0:31:52.740 --> 0:31:53.700
<v Speaker 1>So this is going to go all the way to

0:31:53.720 --> 0:31:54.240
<v Speaker 1>the Supreme Court.

0:31:54.460 --> 0:31:58.060
<v Speaker 7>And so the real question, I think, for a huge

0:31:58.120 --> 0:32:00.790
<v Speaker 7>sector of the economy and for a huge sector of

0:32:00.830 --> 0:32:03.680
<v Speaker 7>the kind of young man population that is into this

0:32:03.700 --> 0:32:09.850
<v Speaker 7>stuff is, like, what is John Roberts— Think about sports betting.

0:32:10.530 --> 0:32:14.340
<v Speaker 5>You mean investing. Yeah, I don't call it sports betting.

0:32:14.930 --> 0:32:15.300
<v Speaker 1>Okay.

0:32:15.340 --> 0:32:15.730
<v Speaker 2>Interesting.

0:32:15.780 --> 0:32:18.580
<v Speaker 7>Now, on a lighter note, although maybe it's not light,

0:32:18.680 --> 0:32:20.020
<v Speaker 7>George Santos, remember him.

0:32:20.080 --> 0:32:21.000
<v Speaker 1>Former congressman?

0:32:21.120 --> 0:32:22.060
<v Speaker 5>I definitely do.

0:32:23.560 --> 0:32:25.500
<v Speaker 1>Was he convicted? I can never remember.

0:32:25.560 --> 0:32:25.719
<v Speaker 2>He was.

0:32:25.780 --> 0:32:26.700
<v Speaker 1>He's had some legal troubles.

0:32:26.720 --> 0:32:27.500
<v Speaker 5>I think he was convicted.

0:32:27.640 --> 0:32:30.000
<v Speaker 7>Recently, we talked about this on the show, he got

0:32:30.040 --> 0:32:35.370
<v Speaker 7>in hot water for allegedly— betting on whether or not

0:32:35.490 --> 0:32:38.050
<v Speaker 7>he would be at the State of the Union address,

0:32:38.270 --> 0:32:40.770
<v Speaker 7>and then investing in a futures contract about whether or

0:32:40.810 --> 0:32:42.090
<v Speaker 7>not he'd be at the State of the Union address,

0:32:42.410 --> 0:32:45.580
<v Speaker 7>and then manipulating the market or appearing to manipulate the

0:32:45.600 --> 0:32:48.060
<v Speaker 7>market by not showing up to the State of the Union.

0:32:48.360 --> 0:32:52.580
<v Speaker 7>He was investigated by the CFTC. They have sanctioned him,

0:32:52.740 --> 0:32:55.760
<v Speaker 7>and now Kalshi has banned him for life. He is

0:32:55.800 --> 0:32:59.450
<v Speaker 7>the first recipient of of a lifetime Kalshi ban. The

0:32:59.490 --> 0:33:04.150
<v Speaker 7>CFTC has suspended him from trading futures for three years

0:33:04.210 --> 0:33:06.640
<v Speaker 7>as part of its settlement, where he basically gave the

0:33:06.680 --> 0:33:07.140
<v Speaker 7>money back.

0:33:07.340 --> 0:33:09.540
<v Speaker 1>But then there's also this additional layer.

0:33:09.640 --> 0:33:13.640
<v Speaker 7>Now, George Santos, being the kind of fun social media

0:33:13.680 --> 0:33:17.040
<v Speaker 7>figure that he is, sort of clapped back at Kalshi

0:33:17.060 --> 0:33:20.020
<v Speaker 7>after the lifetime ban, saying, let's see how much longer

0:33:20.060 --> 0:33:21.200
<v Speaker 7>you guys are around for.

0:33:21.260 --> 0:33:24.850
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for the lifetime ban. from your gambling platform. So

0:33:24.890 --> 0:33:25.510
<v Speaker 1>he is kind of.

0:33:26.470 --> 0:33:26.590
<v Speaker 7>Oh.

0:33:26.610 --> 0:33:30.170
<v Speaker 1>He's needling. He's doing a little... Can he go on Polymarket?

0:33:30.190 --> 0:33:31.610
<v Speaker 1>I suppose he can.

0:33:31.650 --> 0:33:34.230
<v Speaker 7>Although I should say that, you know, all these platforms

0:33:34.250 --> 0:33:37.210
<v Speaker 7>do not allow insider trading. So hopefully if he does

0:33:37.250 --> 0:33:39.260
<v Speaker 7>go on Polymarket, he keeps it clean.

0:33:39.300 --> 0:33:42.380
<v Speaker 6>If I'm remembering this right, didn't he basically post on

0:33:42.420 --> 0:33:45.300
<v Speaker 6>social media that he was on his way? And then

0:33:46.240 --> 0:33:49.600
<v Speaker 6>when the odds went way against him not showing up, he...

0:33:50.390 --> 0:33:53.310
<v Speaker 6>allegedly placed an investment and then.

0:33:53.610 --> 0:33:55.850
<v Speaker 7>He bet on going, said he was going, and then

0:33:55.910 --> 0:33:56.430
<v Speaker 7>did not go.

0:33:57.080 --> 0:33:57.720
<v Speaker 1>Allegedly.

0:33:58.160 --> 0:34:00.700
<v Speaker 7>I don't know that he's responded to these allegations, although

0:34:00.720 --> 0:34:04.160
<v Speaker 7>he did settle, as I said, with the CFTC. You know,

0:34:04.200 --> 0:34:07.500
<v Speaker 7>that's one fewer potential customer for these things. But there

0:34:07.540 --> 0:34:10.219
<v Speaker 7>are definitely a lot of people are... I feel like

0:34:10.260 --> 0:34:12.620
<v Speaker 7>Kaushi will pull through. I think they're going to be okay.

0:34:12.890 --> 0:34:15.830
<v Speaker 7>Although I do think this legal issue is very significant

0:34:15.850 --> 0:34:21.399
<v Speaker 7>for them because if... This ends with sports betting basically

0:34:22.340 --> 0:34:24.590
<v Speaker 7>going off of prediction markets, which I think is a real.

0:34:24.830 --> 0:34:28.250
<v Speaker 1>It's a potential outcome. Because you both have the Supreme Court.

0:34:28.510 --> 0:34:33.950
<v Speaker 7>You also have the prospect that the CFTC says, you know, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.

0:34:33.989 --> 0:34:37.680
<v Speaker 7>The CFTC could, has some draft rules. It's possible they

0:34:37.739 --> 0:34:41.799
<v Speaker 7>could rein things in. If betting on sports is off

0:34:41.880 --> 0:34:44.090
<v Speaker 7>these prediction markets, That is going to be a huge

0:34:44.130 --> 0:34:47.130
<v Speaker 7>hit for prediction markets, a huge percentage of the action.

0:34:47.170 --> 0:34:50.030
<v Speaker 7>I shouldn't call it action. The investments that are happening

0:34:50.410 --> 0:34:51.290
<v Speaker 7>on these platforms.

0:34:51.790 --> 0:34:55.149
<v Speaker 6>Could these people still bet on like what color uniforms

0:34:55.370 --> 0:34:57.969
<v Speaker 6>the teams would wear or, you know, stuff that was

0:34:58.010 --> 0:34:59.590
<v Speaker 6>like not score related?

0:34:59.890 --> 0:35:03.410
<v Speaker 7>The way that the draft rules for the CFTC are

0:35:03.450 --> 0:35:07.370
<v Speaker 7>written is that if these rules went through, you wouldn't

0:35:07.430 --> 0:35:11.900
<v Speaker 7>be able to do a CalShe swap contract anymore. on

0:35:12.040 --> 0:35:14.160
<v Speaker 7>anything having to do with the outcome of a game.

0:35:14.340 --> 0:35:16.529
<v Speaker 7>But you could bet, for instance, on the attendance at

0:35:16.550 --> 0:35:19.589
<v Speaker 7>a game. So I don't know where the uniforms would

0:35:19.630 --> 0:35:22.750
<v Speaker 7>fall on that, but the idea would be to find

0:35:22.790 --> 0:35:26.940
<v Speaker 7>things that are economically valuable. One of the points that

0:35:26.980 --> 0:35:30.800
<v Speaker 7>the judge made in the ruling was that the outcome

0:35:30.960 --> 0:35:33.370
<v Speaker 7>of a game... doesn't really have any kind of like

0:35:33.530 --> 0:35:37.219
<v Speaker 7>economic consequences. I mean, you could squint and say maybe

0:35:37.280 --> 0:35:42.740
<v Speaker 7>bar owners in the local region could use a Kalshi

0:35:42.760 --> 0:35:43.200
<v Speaker 7>thing to head.

0:35:43.219 --> 0:35:47.370
<v Speaker 6>Players get like tons of bonuses if they win or lose.

0:35:47.530 --> 0:35:48.950
<v Speaker 5>I mean, for the Super Bowl.

0:35:48.969 --> 0:35:51.130
<v Speaker 7>Right, but it's different than like betting on the weather

0:35:51.190 --> 0:35:55.110
<v Speaker 7>where you could argue that one useful reason for a

0:35:55.140 --> 0:35:57.900
<v Speaker 7>Kalshi contract betting on the weather is is that if

0:35:58.160 --> 0:36:01.200
<v Speaker 7>it floods, farmers might be washed out or might have

0:36:01.219 --> 0:36:03.890
<v Speaker 7>a good year, and they can use these contracts to

0:36:03.950 --> 0:36:07.430
<v Speaker 7>hedge against weather risk. It's kind of hard to imagine

0:36:07.450 --> 0:36:11.890
<v Speaker 7>a way you could hedge a sports bet without insider trading.

0:36:12.110 --> 0:36:14.870
<v Speaker 1>So, yes, if you were one of these athletes, you

0:36:14.950 --> 0:36:17.219
<v Speaker 1>could bet against yourself, and that way you win either way.

0:36:17.239 --> 0:36:19.320
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, you could be like, either I win my calci

0:36:19.340 --> 0:36:21.620
<v Speaker 6>bet or, like, I get this bonus for getting to

0:36:21.640 --> 0:36:22.140
<v Speaker 6>the playoffs.

0:36:22.200 --> 0:36:26.219
<v Speaker 7>George Santos, though, would tell you, probably, if he were here, that,

0:36:26.700 --> 0:36:28.779
<v Speaker 7>you might be in dicey kind of State of the

0:36:28.800 --> 0:36:29.120
<v Speaker 7>Union terrain.

0:36:29.160 --> 0:36:30.580
<v Speaker 5>Right, but this is gambling and you shouldn't do it.

0:36:30.580 --> 0:36:34.160
<v Speaker 7>You're maybe in the, you could maybe wind up accused

0:36:34.180 --> 0:36:37.279
<v Speaker 7>of insider trading, which you're not supposed to place bets

0:36:37.320 --> 0:36:39.859
<v Speaker 7>where you control the outcome of the bet. So anyway,

0:36:40.460 --> 0:36:44.819
<v Speaker 7>I think it's pretty tough in sports betting to find

0:36:44.860 --> 0:36:48.359
<v Speaker 7>a clear use. Although I'm sure that Calci and Polymarket

0:36:48.420 --> 0:36:50.540
<v Speaker 7>and the other companies that are doing this will try.

0:36:50.560 --> 0:36:53.060
<v Speaker 5>I would bet on it.

0:37:01.170 --> 0:37:03.709
<v Speaker 7>This show is produced by Jasmine JT Green and Stacey Wong.

0:37:03.870 --> 0:37:07.530
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0:37:07.630 --> 0:37:08.800
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0:37:09.140 --> 0:37:11.899
<v Speaker 1>Special thanks to Jeff Muskus, Julia Rubin, and Maria Ling.

0:37:12.400 --> 0:37:15.219
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0:37:15.239 --> 0:37:17.640
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0:37:27.450 --> 0:37:31.930
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0:37:32.010 --> 0:37:35.129
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