Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I am your host,
Speaker 1: Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Dan Harris eighty. It is time for our early look
Speaker 1: at next week's lines. With me to break it all down,
Speaker 1: is our good friend Rich Ryan, host of the grid
Speaker 1: Iron Gamble podcast. You can find Rich on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Rich t Ryan. Rich. Thank you for joining us again.
Speaker 1: How are you.
Speaker 2: I'm great. We unfortunately are coming off of a one
Speaker 2: and four week in the Super Contest after they dangled
Speaker 2: a carrot in front of us and let us go
Speaker 2: five and zero in week thirteen. So just when you
Speaker 2: think you're going to peak and there's light at the
Speaker 2: end of the tunnel, the betting gods punch you right
Speaker 2: in the face.
Speaker 1: I don't want you to be worried, because I went
Speaker 1: four and one in the Super Contest this week, so
Speaker 1: I'm just riding high. I mean that's coming off of
Speaker 1: three and two weeks, so we're probably roughly equal over there.
Speaker 1: But yeah, man, I don't know. I felt like this
Speaker 1: week's games they were okay. I felt like I had
Speaker 1: a good feel for it. Other than I don't know
Speaker 1: why I ever continue to back the Jaguars. It's like
Speaker 1: I haven't processed yet that they are completely dunzies, and
Speaker 1: I just keep going like, well, you know the Chargers.
Speaker 1: I'm not trusting the Chargers. I mean, let's be honest.
Speaker 1: At this point, I think the Jaguars are gonna get
Speaker 1: fired up with Minshew and that didn't work out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Mania crash and we two had the Jags
Speaker 2: as one of our four losers. So right there with you.
Speaker 1: Well, we'll talk about the line that's coming up for
Speaker 1: Week fifteen and whatever it is, I will not be
Speaker 1: taking the Jaguars. But in the end, Rich and I
Speaker 1: are going to go through each game on the Week
Speaker 1: fifteen slate. Before we do, though, it is time to
Speaker 1: announce the winner of our Odell Beckham Junior Signed Helmet giveaway.
Speaker 1: The winner is Clay from Dallas, Texas. Congratulations Clay, your
Speaker 1: helmet is on its way now. Clay actually put in
Speaker 1: an entry for the Christian McCaffrey helmet. But as I
Speaker 1: have told you, an entry into any contest gets you
Speaker 1: automatically entered into all future contests, which means if you
Speaker 1: have already entered our contest. You're automatically entered in for
Speaker 1: this month's giveaway, which is a signed Michael Thomas Saints helmet. Now,
Speaker 1: if you haven't entered, why don't you like free things?
Speaker 1: Clay from Texas likes free things. To enter, just leave
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Speaker 1: Send a screenshot of that review to contest at Bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com. And all of our helmet giveaways come from
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Speaker 1: I S t I n E Auction dot com. All right,
Speaker 1: As I said, Rich and I are going to go
Speaker 1: through every game on the week fifteenth slate, and we're
Speaker 1: going to be using the consensus odds over at Bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com. That's basically the aggregate odds that you're going
Speaker 1: to find available in the marketplace as of right now
Speaker 1: when we record this on Monday night. All right, Rich,
Speaker 1: let's dive right in here with the Thursday night game.
Speaker 1: Our Jets taking on the Ravens in balld More raven
Speaker 1: tiror Lang fourteen and a half with a total of
Speaker 1: forty five. So look, this is gonna be ugly. I mean,
Speaker 1: the Jets eke out the win against the Dolphins, but
Speaker 1: they're banged up all over the place. Does sound like
Speaker 1: Leveon Bell is going to play the Ravens. Meanwhile, they
Speaker 1: continue to roll with their big win over the Bills.
Speaker 1: The defense is playing extremely well. Lamar Jackson is essentially unstoppable.
Speaker 1: So it is going to be gross. But is it
Speaker 1: going to be fourteen and a half points gross or what?
Speaker 2: A lot of injuries here that we're gonna have to
Speaker 2: stay tuned to, which makes it even worse for the
Speaker 2: short week heading into Thursday night football. Baltimore has fewer,
Speaker 2: but definitely two key injuries on offense. Ronnie Staley suffered
Speaker 2: a concussion didn't practice today, and then at the tight
Speaker 2: end position, Mark Andrews left with the knee injury on Sunday.
Speaker 2: He did not practice today. That is Monday as well.
Speaker 2: For the Jets, we know Jamal Adams and Leveon Bell
Speaker 2: missed on Sunday, so there are two players you need
Speaker 2: to keep your eye on and Ryan Griffin, Blao Powell,
Speaker 2: and Quinn Williams all left that game. So a bit
Speaker 2: of an injury ward on both sides of the ball,
Speaker 2: And to me, the biggest of those injuries is Jamal Adams.
Speaker 2: I was very intrigued about this matchup coming into this
Speaker 2: for the last few weeks. I was waiting to see
Speaker 2: Jamal versus Lamar stick thirty three in the box and
Speaker 2: maybe he can contain this electric quarterback and that read
Speaker 2: option offense. Without Jamal, I don't know how the Jets
Speaker 2: get stops in this game. Everyone piling on Baltimore seventy
Speaker 2: percent of both the bets and the money, and if
Speaker 2: thirty three is not on the field for the Jets,
Speaker 2: I kind of lean that way. As many points as
Speaker 2: that is short week, Ravens banged up that for a
Speaker 2: couple tough games, But I just how do the Jets
Speaker 2: get stops against this offense if their defense isn't healthy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're not going to be able to. I don't
Speaker 1: know whether or not I can really take the Ravens
Speaker 1: laying more than two touchdowns. I get it. I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna argue with it. I couldn't take the Jets at
Speaker 1: this point. It's a short week, so I don't think
Speaker 1: it's really gonna move at this point. And as you said,
Speaker 1: the vast majority of the money is going to come
Speaker 1: in down the raven. Certainly the public is gonna like them.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I agree, And it's hard to see the
Speaker 1: Jets doing all that much on offense. I mean, with
Speaker 1: their offensive line being as terrible as it is. Darnold
Speaker 1: needs time to throw to be able to get into
Speaker 1: sort of a mode. With the injuries, I don't think
Speaker 1: Mark Andrews is gonna be able to make it back.
Speaker 1: It sounds very minor whatever it is, you know, his
Speaker 1: his contusion above his knee or whatever it is. But
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna They're gonna force him on
Speaker 1: this short turnaround, considering it's the Jets. But look, Hayden
Speaker 1: Hurst can can easily step up, you know, as he
Speaker 1: did this past Sunday. So for me, if you like
Speaker 1: this game, this is probably where it's gonna end up.
Speaker 1: I'm not going anywhere near it. I completely get it.
Speaker 1: But I cannot take a team, any team against a Jets.
Speaker 1: That Jets are a borderline competent team. I really can't
Speaker 1: take them a team giving them more than two touchdowns
Speaker 1: at the same time you bring up a good point,
Speaker 1: Adam's probably not gonna play. It's hard to see them
Speaker 1: keeping it at all close here, So for me, it's
Speaker 1: a complete stay away. But I think fourteen and a
Speaker 1: half forty five with only a couple days before the
Speaker 1: line moves, I think that's probably where it's gonna end up,
Speaker 1: whichever side you like.
Speaker 2: On to just one more sorry, real quick. The Ravens
Speaker 2: lead the league in blitz percentage as well. I saw
Speaker 2: stat today Earl Thomas has blitzed or filled like a
Speaker 2: run gap more frequently this season than he had his
Speaker 2: entire Seahawks career. And we saw on that Monday night
Speaker 2: specifically where Darnold was seeing ghosts. That's what he struggled
Speaker 2: with the most is pressure. So if they bring all
Speaker 2: that pressure and they've got Humphrey and Peters and Jimmy
Speaker 2: Smith cooking outside, I don't know how the Jets moved
Speaker 2: the ball either, So this one might just be a
Speaker 2: nightmare scenario forgetting.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be ugly. There's gonna have to be like
Speaker 1: a crazy special teamers or a fumble. Let's run back
Speaker 1: for a touchdown or something like that to keep the
Speaker 1: Jets in it, but still more than two touchdowns. I
Speaker 1: can't get in on it. I'm staying away either side.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Broncos. At the Chiefs here,
Speaker 1: this is down a bit. It opened or the look
Speaker 1: headline was twelve. From what I'm seeing, it's currently at
Speaker 1: Chiefs laying ten and a half. And the total has
Speaker 1: dropped as well, from forty seven to forty five and
Speaker 1: a half. A lot of that is probably the fact
Speaker 1: that Patrick Mahomes is dealing with this hand injury now.
Speaker 1: X rays were negative and he Reid said he should play,
Speaker 1: so I think you can probably expect him out there.
Speaker 1: Although they're in this little bit of a weird position,
Speaker 1: right they have no chance really to get one of
Speaker 1: the buys almost certainly given their record, maybe I guess,
Speaker 1: but a pretty low chance to get it. They've got
Speaker 1: their division sewn up, so it's sort of like, do
Speaker 1: you really want to risk Mahomes, you know, out there
Speaker 1: if things are getting bang around, he'll play. But you know,
Speaker 1: I think that's really the reason that you're seeing the
Speaker 1: spread and the total drop down. They do come off
Speaker 1: the big win, of course against the Patriots. Damian Williams
Speaker 1: might be back here. If not, I don't know who's
Speaker 1: going to be running the ball for the Chiefs. They
Speaker 1: don't like to give the Sean McCoy all that many
Speaker 1: carries over're all Spencer ware saw five carries. It's just
Speaker 1: kind of a mess back there. All the Broncos. They
Speaker 1: come up with a huge win over the Texans. They're
Speaker 1: not nearly as bad as their record indicates, but they're
Speaker 1: a little bit jeckyle and high. They've been on a
Speaker 1: great cover streak. I believe it's seven of their last
Speaker 1: nine games, so big spread here, Chiefs at home ten
Speaker 1: and a half, with the total forty five and a half.
Speaker 2: Both teams stock soaring right now. Broncos were plus nine
Speaker 2: win out rights, they've won two in a row with
Speaker 2: their new shiny rookie quarterback, and then Patrick Mahomes and
Speaker 2: company go into Foxborough and beat them for what I
Speaker 2: think was their first loss at home in twenty two games.
Speaker 2: So you're not really getting much value with either team here.
Speaker 2: It is interesting that you did bring up that twelve
Speaker 2: and a half look ahead. Now down to ten and
Speaker 2: a half, I think we might see it continue to
Speaker 2: go down because the Broncos are getting both the majority
Speaker 2: of the tickets and the money. So if you do
Speaker 2: like the Broncos, you probably should grab them as soon
Speaker 2: as possible if you can get the hook. But it
Speaker 2: seems like all the val, the value value, excuse me,
Speaker 2: is being sucked out of this line if you like
Speaker 2: Denver overall, I think it's a very fair line, and
Speaker 2: that is an interesting point you bring up. I didn't
Speaker 2: think about the Chiefs and their positioning within both the
Speaker 2: division and the conference. And it's not like Matt Moor's
Speaker 2: looked poor under center credit to Eddie Andy Reid and
Speaker 2: his offense. So this is just a very fair line
Speaker 2: now that it's moved off that twelve and a half
Speaker 2: look ahead, and I'm not really interested in buying either
Speaker 2: team off of really big wins last week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, neither am. I I think at ten and a
Speaker 1: half the value is still with the Broncos, So I
Speaker 1: still think, sort of as you mentioned, if you do
Speaker 1: want them, it's probably a time you get in on
Speaker 1: them before it drops down to ten, which you know,
Speaker 1: I think it might again. I expect Mahomes to play.
Speaker 1: I didn't mean to suggest that he's going to get
Speaker 1: shut down. But I do think that they're gonna be
Speaker 1: pretty careful with them because I think they're in a
Speaker 1: kind of unique position here where there's three games left
Speaker 1: and their position is probably pretty set at this point.
Speaker 1: I mean, they could get a bye. I don't want to.
Speaker 1: I don't want to poo pooh, but you know, with
Speaker 1: the Pats, you know, playing the Bengals and the Ravens
Speaker 1: playing the Jets, it just seems unlikely that they're going
Speaker 1: to go in that direction, so they'll probably be careful
Speaker 1: with Mahomes. Doesn't mean he's gonna sit, but for me,
Speaker 1: it's just something where he's a little banged up. It's
Speaker 1: not something I really want to go anywhere. If I
Speaker 1: have to choose something right now. I don't really care
Speaker 1: about the total, but I would lean the Broncos at
Speaker 1: ten and a half. Once it gets to ten or
Speaker 1: even single digits, I just kind of want to stay away,
Speaker 1: moving on Bucks at the Lions, the Bucks laying for
Speaker 1: the total at forty seven and a half. We have
Speaker 1: some weirdness in this game. My friend Mike Evans almost
Speaker 1: certainly out after hurting his hamstring. Jameisston comes off a
Speaker 1: huge game, but he has a small fracture in his thumb.
Speaker 1: He was getting a second opinion today. I have not
Speaker 1: seen it. The early word sounded like he wouldn't miss
Speaker 1: any time. Of course, he got taken out briefly right
Speaker 1: around halftime to get that looked at, and he played
Speaker 1: great after that for the most part. So looks he
Speaker 1: should be able to play. But who knows. And of
Speaker 1: course you're in that position where he takes a bad
Speaker 1: hit or something like that on his thumb, who knows
Speaker 1: what happens to Meanwhile, the Lions are the Lions. David
Speaker 1: Blow doesn't do all that much, the defense doesn't do
Speaker 1: all that much. Nobody does all that much ever, but
Speaker 1: they kind of hang around for the most part in games.
Speaker 1: How do you feel here about the Bucks playing four
Speaker 1: in the total at forty seven and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that Winston injury reminiscent of the Browns the previous week.
Speaker 2: Baker hits his thumb before halftime, gets removed, and then
Speaker 2: comes back at the start of the third quarter. Buck's
Speaker 2: coming off three straight wins a somewhat good Jamis game.
Speaker 2: I guess we could just throw out interceptions. They're just
Speaker 2: to be expected.
Speaker 1: You don't understand, right, every Jamis game is that's a
Speaker 1: minimum of three turnovers. So the fact that he just
Speaker 1: put up the stats, you're right, you just throw out
Speaker 1: all those interceptions.
Speaker 2: Counting stats legend Jameis Winston. I think he's a favorite
Speaker 2: now to lead the league in yards, touchdowns, end interceptions,
Speaker 2: which is pretty remarkable. Well, yeah, I am never buying
Speaker 2: the Bucks off of three straight wins as road favorites
Speaker 2: in two thousand and nineteen. I know the Lions are bad.
Speaker 2: I know something blow or blow is horrific, but I
Speaker 2: just don't have it in my fiber to click the
Speaker 2: Buccaneers in the spot. So I'm going to close my eyes,
Speaker 2: pinch my nose, and probably take the four in the
Speaker 2: spot with Detroit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I hate to do this because it's the third
Speaker 1: straight game, but I'm avoiding this game. Super content is
Speaker 1: going to be tough, man, because we've got just, you know,
Speaker 1: all these lines where I'm like, Nope, don't want any
Speaker 1: piece of that. It's very difficult here. Ordinarily, I honestly
Speaker 1: I would lean the Bucks because I think they're playing
Speaker 1: better overall. I think their horrific secondary has been a
Speaker 1: little bit better. I think their offense is very difficult
Speaker 1: to stop, and it's really tough with the Lions at
Speaker 1: this point. I mean, what do you really have to
Speaker 1: go forward to? Blow is not a guy who should
Speaker 1: be quarterbacking in the NFL regularly anyway. So on a
Speaker 1: normal day, I would take the Bucks at four. But
Speaker 1: what's interesting the Evans injury, You've got the Winston sort
Speaker 1: of you know, uncertainty, and yet the line has not moved.
Speaker 1: It has stuck at minus four. So with all of that,
Speaker 1: it's just not something I really want to go there,
Speaker 1: and I don't want to back the Bucks on a
Speaker 1: good day, So you know, for me, kind of in
Speaker 1: that same vein, it's a stay away for me. But
Speaker 1: if you know, I won't even say where i'd go
Speaker 1: if I had to choose a side, because I don't
Speaker 1: want to have to choose a side. If anything, I
Speaker 1: kind of like the over on the total forty seven
Speaker 1: and a half. I think the Lines are going to
Speaker 1: be able to put up points, you know, considering the
Speaker 1: Bucks secondary, although it is getting better, they're still not
Speaker 1: going to be able to completely contain Kenny Galladay. So
Speaker 1: I do see the Lines being able to put up
Speaker 1: some points here and you know, the Bucks, who basically
Speaker 1: go over on every single game, are probably going to
Speaker 1: get there. So of anything, I lean over on the
Speaker 1: total of forty seven and a half where it is
Speaker 1: right now, but for the spread, I'm not really going
Speaker 1: near it. Let's move on to the Texans at the Titans.
Speaker 1: This is a good one. Titans here are laying two
Speaker 1: and a half at home with a total of fifty
Speaker 1: up from forty eight and a half. This is really
Speaker 1: for the South. It appears the Texans they're all over
Speaker 1: the place. They beat the Patriots in convincing fashion, then
Speaker 1: they get blown out by the Broncos. Their pass defense
Speaker 1: had played much better of late, but they struggled on Sunday.
Speaker 1: Willfuller again misses the game with an injury, so his
Speaker 1: status is certainly something to monitor. Meanwhile, the Titans come
Speaker 1: off a huge win against the Raiders. This is what
Speaker 1: I talked about last week. Rich. I did not understand
Speaker 1: the Titans laying a field goal to the Raiders. I
Speaker 1: understand that they had all that they were going cross country,
Speaker 1: and they were close on a couple of games where
Speaker 1: obviously they pulled out a few games that they easily
Speaker 1: could have lost, like against the Colts and against the
Speaker 1: Chiefs and against the Bucks. But Ryan tannel is playing extremely,
Speaker 1: extremely well. Derrick Henry is a scary man when it
Speaker 1: starts getting cold. He is battling through that hamstring injury,
Speaker 1: but he looked like he was okay. The defense continues
Speaker 1: to play well overall. So you got a divisional game here,
Speaker 1: both team's really desperate for the win. Titans now laying
Speaker 1: under a field goal two and a half with the
Speaker 1: high total of fifty.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this was a one and a half look ahead.
Speaker 2: So moving in the direction of the Titans. They're getting
Speaker 2: credits with this massive winning streak and the performances that
Speaker 2: Ryan Tannehill is putting together. Texans last week, massively inflated
Speaker 2: line they got, I think it moved from seven and
Speaker 2: a half to nine thanks to their victory against the Patriots,
Speaker 2: and then they go out and lay an absolute stinker
Speaker 2: that we referenced earlier with the Broncos coming into town.
Speaker 2: I think this line is fair, and if I had
Speaker 2: to choose, I think I might take Houston just because
Speaker 2: I need to sell this Titans touchdown offensive efficiency. Ryan
Speaker 2: Tannehill looking like Joe Montana because my eyes have seen
Speaker 2: Ryan Tannehill play too poorly in the past for me
Speaker 2: to buy these recent performances as something that are indicative
Speaker 2: going forward. I will say my favorite aspect of this
Speaker 2: game is the total. I like playing the under fifty
Speaker 2: in this game. I think because the stakes are so high,
Speaker 2: Like you said for the South, I think this will
Speaker 2: be a little more of a grind your game than
Speaker 2: most people expect. And then yeah, the Tannehill regression is
Speaker 2: a real thing, and the Titans defense is excellent, so
Speaker 2: I think the Texans might be held in check as well.
Speaker 2: So I think, really close game, really fair line. But
Speaker 2: give me the under on fifty in this game. I
Speaker 2: think it'll be a little more low scoring than people think.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I honestly I agree with you on the total
Speaker 1: for sure. I think this is you know, you got
Speaker 1: a divisional game. Actually oddly enough, I mean we're in
Speaker 1: week fifteen. These teams haven't played yet. I mean they're
Speaker 1: playing again in week seventeen, which is a little weird,
Speaker 1: but so you know, when you have the second game
Speaker 1: with the divisional game, I feel like, well, the teams
Speaker 1: really know what they're about. They don't have that here.
Speaker 1: But either way, I agree with you and the Texans
Speaker 1: defense overall. I mean, I know they had a bad
Speaker 1: game against the Broncos, but overall they've been playing a
Speaker 1: little bit better even without JJ Watt, So I do
Speaker 1: find this to be closer to a defensive struggle. So
Speaker 1: I also like the under fifty. I admit though, and
Speaker 1: my bosses tease me because they know now I'm like
Speaker 1: all in on the Titans suddenly. But if I had
Speaker 1: to lean one way or another, if you're under a
Speaker 1: field goal, I like the Titans. I'm kind of buying
Speaker 1: Ryan Dan right now. I mean, I don't know whether
Speaker 1: or not it was Miami, but the thing is, I've
Speaker 1: watched him really closely. He is playing really, really well.
Speaker 1: This isn't fluky right now. You know, not only is
Speaker 1: he doing it with his legs, but he's making good reads.
Speaker 1: He's incredibly accurate at the moment. I get he has
Speaker 1: a whole career of mediocrity behind him, but with the
Speaker 1: way he's playing right now, I'm really am backing it.
Speaker 1: And more so than him, it's really Henry Man. He
Speaker 1: did this last year where he got going at the
Speaker 1: end of the year and you just don't want to
Speaker 1: tackle him once it gets a little cold. Who wants
Speaker 1: to tackle that guy? At this point, he's playing great,
Speaker 1: so as long as he's healthy, I would lean slightly
Speaker 1: towards the Titans. I'm not sure if I'm willing to
Speaker 1: bet it, but under the key number of three, I
Speaker 1: lean that way. But the big thing here I agree
Speaker 1: with you is the total at fifty and again it's
Speaker 1: trended up. I like it now that you can get
Speaker 1: in and certainly get some value there. Moving on here
Speaker 1: to the Dolphins at the Giants. Giants here are currently
Speaker 1: laying a field goal with a total of forty seven
Speaker 1: and a half. We are recording this in the middle
Speaker 1: of the Giants Eagles game. It's approaching halftime, so we
Speaker 1: don't know exactly what happens here, but it's going to
Speaker 1: be Eli Manning under center again next week. Daniel Jones
Speaker 1: has basically been giving a two to four week timetable,
Speaker 1: so he's probably gonna miss this game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins
Speaker 1: continue to play hard, but they lose Devonte Parker to
Speaker 1: a concussion, Albert Wilson gets injured. Two really bad teams.
Speaker 1: This line is just basically I think bookmakers being like,
Speaker 1: I don't know, Goad you know, get somebody give us
Speaker 1: something on this. So what are you giving us? A
Speaker 1: Giants slaying a field goal total at forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half, I think.
Speaker 2: Back to back trips to the Meadowlands and MetLife Stadium
Speaker 2: is one of the worst punishments that you can dole
Speaker 2: out to this historically bad Dolphins team. Yeah, on the surface,
Speaker 2: I want to lay the points with the Giants, just
Speaker 2: because the Dolphins truly have reverted to the form that
Speaker 2: they showed in the first couple of weeks of the season.
Speaker 2: But I'm not really in love with other side on
Speaker 2: the spread. So again, I'm going to revert to the
Speaker 2: total and I'm going to go to the other side
Speaker 2: and maybe the fish style here. And that's the over
Speaker 2: on forty seven and a half. This game is defense
Speaker 2: sold separately and specifically. The Dolphins have been playing these
Speaker 2: massively high totals the last couple of weeks fifty seven,
Speaker 2: sixty five, sixty eight, and then last week against our
Speaker 2: beloved Jets, the total was forty three, but the Dolphins
Speaker 2: kicked seven field goals, So even if they turned half
Speaker 2: of those drives or three out of seven into touchdown drives,
Speaker 2: this shoots well over forty seven and a half. So
Speaker 2: I think the lack of defense FITs' ability to push
Speaker 2: the ball down the field at all costs is intriguing.
Speaker 2: The one thing I will say on this is that
Speaker 2: if neither DeVante Parker nor Albert Wilson go both were
Speaker 2: taken out with the concussions on Sunday, I'm less excited
Speaker 2: about this forty seven and a half. But even if
Speaker 2: we get one of those guys, I think this is
Speaker 2: shooting over.
Speaker 1: You don't have faith in Alan Hearn, you can get
Speaker 1: some stuff then I actually, I'll be honest. I maybe
Speaker 1: it's partly because you never know his concussions. You don't
Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen, But you know, I'm sure they're
Speaker 1: gonna be careful with Parker at this point, he's been great.
Speaker 1: I kind of lean the under actually, I mean, I
Speaker 1: get you make good points in this game, but if
Speaker 1: you do have Parker injured, and let's just you know, again,
Speaker 1: you're basically putting that as a qualifier. I'm kind of
Speaker 1: not expecting him to play at the moment. And really, look,
Speaker 1: I mean this game that I'm watching, you know, the
Speaker 1: Eagles certainly have a decent defense and it's in the rain.
Speaker 1: But the Giants with Eli Manning do not strike me
Speaker 1: as a team who's going to be able to move
Speaker 1: the ball and put up significant amount of points even
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins defense. So for me, forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half, I mean, it's a solid number. I kind
Speaker 1: of lean the under at this point, but again, it
Speaker 1: a little bit is dependent on whether Parker Albert Wilson whatever,
Speaker 1: it's really about Parker. He is the guy who makes
Speaker 1: it go. So if Parker plays, I'd probably stay away
Speaker 1: from the total overall. But if he doesn't play, I'm
Speaker 1: all over the under here. I at forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half with the spread, I just no, I have
Speaker 1: no interest in betting on the Giants against the Dolphins
Speaker 1: with a three point spread, so I would stay away
Speaker 1: from it there. Let's move on to the Seahawks at
Speaker 1: the Panthers. Seahawks here are laying six and the total
Speaker 1: at forty eight and a half. Panthers just a sinking
Speaker 1: ship here. Kyle Allen is going to remain the starter,
Speaker 1: but their defense has totally caved in. Seahawks mean want
Speaker 1: they get beaten up pretty good by the Rams on
Speaker 1: Sunday Night Football. They lose for Shod Penny. The over
Speaker 1: under for carries for Chris Carson against this abysmal run
Speaker 1: defense is like twenty eight or something like that. Is
Speaker 1: that going to be enough with the Seahawks laying six
Speaker 1: in Carolina and a total at forty eight and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, ACL injury for Shod Penny, which is just absolutely
Speaker 2: brutal for the kid. They finally got him going after
Speaker 2: stubbornly sending Chris Carson for one yard and a cloud
Speaker 2: of dust for several weeks this season, and then the
Speaker 2: kid goes out and suffers an ACL injury, which I mean,
Speaker 2: it's just brutal.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: The Hawks are one of the few teams in twenty
Speaker 2: nineteen that want to run the ball, establish it, as
Speaker 2: the kids say nowadays. And as you noted, the Panthers
Speaker 2: are an absolute triage unit up front on the defensive line,
Speaker 2: and this is absolutely the way to attack them. So
Speaker 2: man six is just so many points. Four was the
Speaker 2: look ahead Seahawks go out and look horrific in primetime
Speaker 2: and the line moves in the other direction just because
Speaker 2: the Panthers seem to have quit, lose their coach, go
Speaker 2: on the road, look completely lethargic. If you think the
Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers will show any signs of professional pride and
Speaker 2: go out and play a football game like normal, then
Speaker 2: I think you have to like the plus six in
Speaker 2: this spot. But that is completely uncertain now that they've
Speaker 2: lost their coach and with the effort they gave last
Speaker 2: week against a pretty poor Falcons team. So the sharp
Speaker 2: person inside me is screaming to take the six points,
Speaker 2: but you need some real intestinal fortitude in order to
Speaker 2: fire that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the sharp side is probably the Panthers.
Speaker 1: And I don't mind to be square on this one
Speaker 1: because I'm all over the Seahawks if you get them
Speaker 1: under a touchdown. Look, I faded the Panthers, you know,
Speaker 1: I've been fading them lately, certainly faded them against the
Speaker 1: Falcons this week. They're just done, dude, Like, I get
Speaker 1: you didn't have the fired our coach. You know, let's
Speaker 1: rally around and maybe make that a thing. No, they're done.
Speaker 1: Their defense looks like they have absolutely no interest in
Speaker 1: tackling anyone whatsoever. They're just gonna play out the season.
Speaker 1: And you know, the Seahawks coming off that loss, now
Speaker 1: they gotta I mean, they're gonna be hungry. They're obviously
Speaker 1: in the dogfight to you know what. They might be
Speaker 1: the number one seed, they might be the number five seed.
Speaker 1: It's a big difference there. You know they're gonna look
Speaker 1: to get back on track here. Six is a lot
Speaker 1: under a touchdown now. I feel completely fine with it. Honestly,
Speaker 1: if you get up to that key number of seven,
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna stay. But if I get six is
Speaker 1: a big number. Don't care if you. I think the
Speaker 1: Panthers are completely done. I think that the books have
Speaker 1: not comple fully adjusted to what they are at this point.
Speaker 1: So for me, I don't really care about the total.
Speaker 1: But at laying six, I'm gonna take that and I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna hesitate really personally. Before we move on, I
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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to an intriguing divisional gamer
Speaker 1: Bears at the Packers. Packers are currently laying four. This
Speaker 1: has been trending down now for a while, the total
Speaker 1: at forty one. Bears are starting to feel it a
Speaker 1: little bit. Mitchell Trubisky has played very well of late.
Speaker 1: The Bears need to win out to have any shot
Speaker 1: at the playoffs. They are down. Rocon Smith here on
Speaker 1: defense is going to miss the rest of the season
Speaker 1: with the torn peck. Meanwhile, the Packers beat the Redskins,
Speaker 1: but they just do not have that killer instinct at
Speaker 1: the moment. The offense works, but it rarely clicks on
Speaker 1: all cylinders. They are beatable on the ground. That's not
Speaker 1: really where the Bears sort of shining. Dave Montgomery is capable,
Speaker 1: but he hasn't really gotten gung. So how do you
Speaker 1: feel here, Bear's visiting the Packers. Packers now laying just
Speaker 1: four with the total of forty one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, look at it seven and a half. Yep, and
Speaker 2: now we're down to four. I know Mitchell Trubisky has
Speaker 2: looked good, but and they have the mini by the
Speaker 2: couple extra days arrest, but that is certainly a plummet.
Speaker 2: But just like you said, what is this Packers offense
Speaker 2: averaging eighteen point eight points per game since Halloween. I
Speaker 2: don't know what to make of this squad. You talk,
Speaker 2: A lot of people are talking about the Patriots and
Speaker 2: they're trying to give Brady a pass because guys aren't
Speaker 2: getting open. But outside of DeVante Adams, the Packers are
Speaker 2: having the same issues in guys getting open. And then
Speaker 2: Rogers is kind of doing this thing where kind of
Speaker 2: like Deshaan Watson in clean Pockets, he's just breaking down
Speaker 2: and freelancing a little bit, and it's just all a
Speaker 2: bit odd. All of that being said, with this line
Speaker 2: as depressed as it is, I think you have to
Speaker 2: like the home team at four. I'm not buying into
Speaker 2: this Bear's resurgence. Much of that has to do with
Speaker 2: them playing a Lions team with their third string quarterback
Speaker 2: and then a Cowboys team which cannot compete against teams
Speaker 2: with the pulse it seems, so give me the Packers
Speaker 2: at four. Very strange line movement off of seven and
Speaker 2: a half being looked at.
Speaker 1: I think if you like the Packers is where you
Speaker 1: gotta get them. I don't think it's going lower than this, because,
Speaker 1: as you said, it has moved a ton coming in,
Speaker 1: so I kind of agree with you. It's more of
Speaker 1: a game where I don't have a great feeling for it.
Speaker 1: But if I had to pick a side, it would
Speaker 1: be the Packers at this point because four is just
Speaker 1: too little for a divisional game for a team playing
Speaker 1: at home. You know, the defense hasn't been quite as strong,
Speaker 1: but it's still there. It's still solid against the pass,
Speaker 1: and I don't think the Bears really have that run
Speaker 1: a bit that's going to be able to take advantage
Speaker 1: of where the Packers real deficiency is on defense. So
Speaker 1: I think this is probably where it starts stops. I
Speaker 1: don't think it's getting down to three or anything like that.
Speaker 1: So if you like the Packers as you do, as
Speaker 1: I kind of do, I think this is a spot
Speaker 1: to get him because I could see this closing back
Speaker 1: closer to five as the sharp guys probably come in
Speaker 1: and realize the value there. Let's move on to the
Speaker 1: Patriots at the Bengals. Patriots here laying eight and a
Speaker 1: half with the total of forty and a half. Can
Speaker 1: you do it? Rich? Can you take the Patriots here?
Speaker 1: They look terrible offensively. Tom Brady has that giant rap
Speaker 1: on his elbow, The defense has not been elite. But
Speaker 1: then there are the Bengals, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd. I
Speaker 1: don't really have all that much to say about them.
Speaker 1: I mean, they look a little better with Andy Dalton
Speaker 1: back there, but they're just not a good football team.
Speaker 1: So how do you feel here about the Patriots visiting
Speaker 1: the Bengals eight and a half total of forty and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 2: I would have taken them at the ten and a
Speaker 2: half look ahead, and I certainly would have taken them
Speaker 2: at the ten open as well. But people are pounding
Speaker 2: the Bengals down to eight and a half because they're
Speaker 2: realizing that this Patriots offense is not good enough to
Speaker 2: cover these large spreads. I mean, they absolutely dominated a
Speaker 2: team like the Cowboys a couple weeks ago. Right you
Speaker 2: walk away from that game thinking that the Cowboys had
Speaker 2: really no shot and the Patriots couldn't extend never could
Speaker 2: extend the lead, never could get the ball in the
Speaker 2: end zone. And I don't foresee them being able to
Speaker 2: do that for the rest of the season. And the
Speaker 2: one thing that the Patriots want to do on defense
Speaker 2: is they want to funnel you to run the ball,
Speaker 2: and the Bengals want to run the ball. Despite being
Speaker 2: a bad team. Joe Mixon has actually gotten it going
Speaker 2: here these last couple of weeks. Dalton is back and
Speaker 2: he's not the greatest, but he's probably replacement level where
Speaker 2: that's not the type of quarterback player they were getting.
Speaker 2: So I think all the value has unfortunately already been
Speaker 2: sucked out of this line. But even at eight and
Speaker 2: a half, I still shade the home team. The Patriots
Speaker 2: are just not good enough to be laying a number
Speaker 2: that's this large on the road.
Speaker 1: There's got to come a point, man, There's got to
Speaker 1: come a point where they just take all their anger
Speaker 1: from the last couple of games and just let it
Speaker 1: explode on someone. And you know, eight and a half
Speaker 1: I lean the Pats, I really do. I agree that
Speaker 1: they're you know, they're They're not nearly in the same
Speaker 1: class right now as they were at any point over
Speaker 1: the last several years. But the Bengals are just a
Speaker 1: really terrible football team. They really are. They're a little
Speaker 1: bit more competent with Andy Dalton, but I don't foresee
Speaker 1: them being able to move the ball very well. I mean,
Speaker 1: Autun Tate is probably going to miss this game as well,
Speaker 1: So it's really just Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon. And
Speaker 1: you know, you know what Belichick does, He takes away
Speaker 1: whatever you do best. That's probably going to be mixing,
Speaker 1: even though again they want to funnel the run. As
Speaker 1: you said, they're probably going to focus on taking Mixon away.
Speaker 1: I think the Bengals are going to have a tough
Speaker 1: time scoring, and I think the Patriots are gonna be
Speaker 1: able to do enough with their scheme. You know, they
Speaker 1: don't have the playmakers at the moment. It's really Julian
Speaker 1: Edelman that's it. I don't know, maybe Sony Michelle gets
Speaker 1: a bunch of carries, but I feel like this is
Speaker 1: a spot where the Patriots they have to by the way,
Speaker 1: because the Bills are playing extremely well. As you know
Speaker 1: that both teams losses past weekend, but the Bills are
Speaker 1: right on their heels. They cannot take a chance of
Speaker 1: having the Bills catch them. I think they're gonna pull
Speaker 1: out all the stops here. I think they're gonna cover
Speaker 1: it at eight and a half. If it was at
Speaker 1: ten or ten and a half, like you mentioned earlier, Yeah,
Speaker 1: at that point the values with the Bengals, But here,
Speaker 1: I don't know. Man just got a feeling that this
Speaker 1: is kind of a spot where they're gonna look to
Speaker 1: get right. I don't love it, but if I'm forced
Speaker 1: to take a side, I'll go with the Pats at
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Let's go on to the Eagles
Speaker 1: at the Redskins. Eagles here are laying six and the
Speaker 1: total at forty and a half. Again, the Eagles game
Speaker 1: is going on right now. Al Sean Jeffrey has been
Speaker 1: carted off. I think Lane Johnson left trying to watch
Speaker 1: it out of the corner of my eyes. So they
Speaker 1: are just dropping like flies. They've also played terribly of
Speaker 1: late the Redskins. Meanwhile, they keep it close against the Packers.
Speaker 1: They have lost arius guys. They love to run the
Speaker 1: ball all day, and that is the Eagles strength. So
Speaker 1: it really doesn't set up well for the Redskins. But
Speaker 1: how do you feel here about the Eagles laying six
Speaker 1: in Washington with a total of forty and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Eagles one of the few pass funnel defenses
Speaker 2: in the league. Right They want you to run the
Speaker 2: ball because that's how they can stop you. While their
Speaker 2: secondary is just below average. We're seeing Eli Manning look
Speaker 2: like a competent quarterback in twenty nineteen on the road,
Speaker 2: which is something that should not be happening. That being said,
Speaker 2: Eagles minus six on the road is just playing stupid.
Speaker 2: In my opinion. They need to be able to in
Speaker 2: order to be minus six on the road in professional football,
Speaker 2: you need to get out to leads and then extend leads.
Speaker 2: That's the only way that you consistently cover these numbers
Speaker 2: on the road in pro football, and the Eagles offense
Speaker 2: has just not been able to do that whatsoever. And
Speaker 2: you can blame it on WinCE, you can blame it
Speaker 2: on this receiving corps which has not been healthy the
Speaker 2: entire year, lack of a running game.
Speaker 1: What have you.
Speaker 2: But the fact of the matter is is that the
Speaker 2: Eagles offense just is flat bad and they're not going
Speaker 2: to be able to cover six consistently enough Washington. Even
Speaker 2: when they're behind, even when they have no chance of winning,
Speaker 2: they just run the life out of the game. Bill
Speaker 2: Callahan just wants to line it up and run the football,
Speaker 2: which doesn't make sense if you want to win a
Speaker 2: football game. But if you're holding a plus six ticket
Speaker 2: and you just want to see that clock take off,
Speaker 2: it is certainly in your favor, So Washington. I talked
Speaker 2: about professional Pride earlier and will the Panther show it?
Speaker 2: I know Washington will show it. They're three to ten,
Speaker 2: but they still go out there. They fight in the trenches,
Speaker 2: they play defense, they run the ball. Not sexy things,
Speaker 2: but very sexy when you're holding a plus six ticket
Speaker 2: at home. So give me the Washington professional football team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. Other than the Seahawks, this one is,
Speaker 1: oddly enough, my favorite one that we've gone through so far.
Speaker 1: I certainly like the Redskins. My guess is that the
Speaker 1: spread is going to drop after, you know, pretty coming
Speaker 1: up soon given all the injuries that the Eagles are
Speaker 1: suffering tonight. So if you like it, I'd lock it in.
Speaker 1: And I also you made a good point with running
Speaker 1: the ball constantly. May not be good for catching up,
Speaker 1: but it's good for sort of keeping the game close.
Speaker 1: It also is good for running out the clock and
Speaker 1: keeping a low total. So for me, given both team
Speaker 1: struggles on offenses, forty and a half, it's not particularly high.
Speaker 1: Of course, it's a load total, but I still like
Speaker 1: this game to come in as under, so I'm going
Speaker 1: to be locking in both of those bets. Right after
Speaker 1: this podcast, because I feel pretty good about them. But yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a crazy, crazy world. But the Redskins getting six
Speaker 1: from the Eagles is one of my favorite bets that
Speaker 1: we've gone through so far. Let's move on to the
Speaker 1: Browns that the Cardinals. Browns laying three with a total
Speaker 1: of forty eight. The Browns beat the Bengals, but they
Speaker 1: just kind of look like they don't really care about
Speaker 1: life right now. Odell Buckham Junior playing through a sports turnia.
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield looks like he forgot the setus alarm and
Speaker 1: he rolled out of bed and barely got to the
Speaker 1: game on time. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost several games
Speaker 1: in a row. The defense continues to be subpar, Kyler
Speaker 1: Murray having a little bit of trouble getting things going
Speaker 1: against some tough defenses. It'll be a little bit easier
Speaker 1: for him here. So how do you feel about the
Speaker 1: Browns sang three with the total of forty eight.
Speaker 2: What are the Browns doing well? Why do they win
Speaker 2: football games and then have these super strange things happen,
Speaker 2: whether it's Miles Garrett attacking the quarterback with a helmet
Speaker 2: or Baker Mayfield throwing the entire training sta under the bus,
Speaker 2: like these things are happening after wins. Well, what's gonna
Speaker 2: happen if this team goes on a losing streak?
Speaker 1: Just to be clear, though you knew, right, everybody knew
Speaker 1: this was a possibility.
Speaker 2: You got that group of.
Speaker 1: Guys together and if they struggled, it was going to
Speaker 1: be a powder keg. So this is it's a dysfunctional,
Speaker 1: dysfunctional atmosphere at the moment.
Speaker 2: What a strange team, and yet I think they're actually
Speaker 2: a decent playing this spot. How do the Cardinals get stops?
Speaker 2: They just something Duck Hodges while in there with no juju,
Speaker 2: no connor, and went out and scored points in professional
Speaker 2: football on the road, Like these things should not be happening.
Speaker 2: And it's as clown as the Browns act from Monday
Speaker 2: to Saturday. On Sunday, this offense has been clicking, specifically
Speaker 2: with the return of Kareem Hunt and Freddy Kitchens rolling
Speaker 2: out this twenty one offense with both backs on the field,
Speaker 2: they've just been fantastic. So I think two and a
Speaker 2: half is a bit two and a half look ahead
Speaker 2: was a bit short. I think it's more respectable where
Speaker 2: it is at the full three, but I still think
Speaker 2: there's a little bit of value on Cleveland. My favorite
Speaker 2: bet is the over on forty eight. Though we all
Speaker 2: know Cliff and Kyler that are running at the fastest
Speaker 2: pace in the league almost twenty five seconds flat per
Speaker 2: play in games that they are in, They're not going
Speaker 2: downfield as much as I'd like them too. The horizontal
Speaker 2: raid has been bleeding my eyes out for fourteen weeks now,
Speaker 2: but they actually started to push the ball downfield last week,
Speaker 2: albeit against a great defense, and it ended up in
Speaker 2: three interceptions. But what do you guys have to lose.
Speaker 2: Let's just start throwing the rock downfield and let Kyler cook.
Speaker 2: So I like the over on forty eight. In this
Speaker 2: game between the Browns and the Cardinals, I.
Speaker 1: Don't love the spread. I just don't trust either team
Speaker 1: at this point. I could see the Cardinals pulling out
Speaker 1: this victory at this point at home, one of their
Speaker 1: last chances to really get right. But I completely agree
Speaker 1: with you on the total. I think both teams are
Speaker 1: going to go a little crazy here. I think it's
Speaker 1: just going to be a lot of touchdowns. I think
Speaker 1: the Cardinals are going to be extremely happy to not
Speaker 1: have to be looking at teams like the Steelers, you know,
Speaker 1: and tough defenses that they've had to face of late.
Speaker 1: So I can see this one really going well over
Speaker 1: The total forty eight, it's a you know, not a
Speaker 1: crazy number. It's a high number, but I think they're
Speaker 1: going to sort past it. So that's really the bad
Speaker 1: I like on this game. The total I'm probably going
Speaker 1: to stay away from. I just do not trust the
Speaker 1: Browns to be able to as you know, as much
Speaker 1: as I see them scoring, I don't really see them
Speaker 1: stopping the Cardinals at this point either. Let's move on
Speaker 1: to the game that only betters are going to be watching,
Speaker 1: the Jaguars at the Raiders. Raiders here are laying six.
Speaker 1: The total is at forty five and a half. It's
Speaker 1: who wants it least in this game, I mean, both
Speaker 1: just look like they've completely quit. The Jaguars continue to
Speaker 1: get absolutely blown out. They're probably down DJ Shark in
Speaker 1: this game. The defense cannot stop anybody. But they're also
Speaker 1: the Raiders who don't have Hunter Renfro anymore. They lost
Speaker 1: Falster Moro, They're playing without any PEP whatsoever. So how
Speaker 1: do you feel here about the Raiders at home lank
Speaker 1: six with the total of forty five and a half.
Speaker 2: Poor Josh Jacobs takes the shot before the game, thinks
Speaker 2: he's gonna go, but he gets ruled out.
Speaker 1: He's got a fractured shoulder. Dude. I mean, I don't
Speaker 1: know how long you're gonna talk. I mean, he may play.
Speaker 1: He was close to playing last week, so he may
Speaker 1: play in this game, but who knows.
Speaker 2: Tough guy. You know, as I sit here complaining about,
Speaker 2: you know, fifty five degree weather here in southern California
Speaker 2: being too cold, this guy has a fractured shoulder and
Speaker 2: he's trying to put it play pro football. So good on.
Speaker 2: The rookies had a great campaign. This is just too
Speaker 2: many points, right, Raiders laying six. I know the Jaguars
Speaker 2: were horrific last week. I know Gardner Minshew has those
Speaker 2: blow up games in him. DJ Shark on the injury
Speaker 2: report very concerning. I understand all of these things, but
Speaker 2: I cannot abide by the Raiders being minus six in
Speaker 2: pro football here in twenty nineteen. So another just like
Speaker 2: the Lions, close your eyes, pinch your nose, take the points.
Speaker 1: No, I mean, I'm not going with the Raiders. I
Speaker 1: promise you that, But I'm not going with the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: There's just no way I can. I can go with
Speaker 1: the total though, because I think both teams are going
Speaker 1: to be able to put up a lot of points
Speaker 1: right now. I mean, if Jacob's plays great, you know,
Speaker 1: DeAndre Washington was more than competent at this point. Jalen
Speaker 1: Richard is used to getting in there and catching passes.
Speaker 1: I think the Raiders are going to be able to
Speaker 1: put up points, which again they did against the Titans.
Speaker 1: I think they put up twenty one. They're able to
Speaker 1: score some. I think the Jaguars, I mean, their offense
Speaker 1: is not incompetent. You know, they didn't have a great
Speaker 1: game of course against the Chargers, but I think even
Speaker 1: without Chark, who I expect to miss this game, I
Speaker 1: think they're still going to be able to put up points.
Speaker 1: I think Lennon Fournette is going to run wild, and
Speaker 1: obviously running is not great for the over but forty
Speaker 1: five and a half now, I think the defenses are
Speaker 1: going to struggle here to stop anybody. But I get you.
Speaker 1: I mean the Raiders laying six to twenty team right now,
Speaker 1: you'd be like, give me that, but again, I've lost
Speaker 1: much money on the Jaguars of late. They're not a
Speaker 1: team that I can back with any semblance of confidence.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Vikings at the Chargers.
Speaker 1: The Vikings laying two and a half with the total
Speaker 1: of forty four and a half down from forty six.
Speaker 1: I don't think I bet correctly this season for or
Speaker 1: against the Chargers, So take this for what you will,
Speaker 1: but to me, this line seems way too little. I
Speaker 1: think the Vikings should be laying more than a field goal.
Speaker 1: I get that the Chargers are better than their record.
Speaker 1: They blew out of quitting Jags team, they got Derwin
Speaker 1: James back. The Vikings are a good football team. Yeah,
Speaker 1: their pass defense is not so special, and yeah they're
Speaker 1: having to travel all the way out west. But less
Speaker 1: than a field goal, I don't know, man, I think
Speaker 1: that you know whether or not Adam Thielen returns in
Speaker 1: this game. I think their offense is plenty capable of
Speaker 1: moving the ball well. I get that the Chargers run
Speaker 1: defense has been better, especially of late. Melvin Ingram has
Speaker 1: made their defense stronger, But I think the Vikings have
Speaker 1: a really, really solid offense. I think they can score
Speaker 1: on anyone, and I just I don't get this underfield goal.
Speaker 1: So for me, I really like the Vikings saying two
Speaker 1: and a half total forty four and a half I'm
Speaker 1: indifferent about. But how do you feel here with that
Speaker 1: spread in that total?
Speaker 2: Adrian Fields Phillips back in that secondary as well, next
Speaker 2: to Derwin James. I've been on a full fade of
Speaker 2: the Chargers this season and it's worked out pretty well
Speaker 2: in spots like that Denver game where they were somehow
Speaker 2: road favorites going to Mile High. I thought last week
Speaker 2: was going to be a repeat, as we mentioned at
Speaker 2: the top, both of us one of the Jags in
Speaker 2: the super contest that did not go over well, and
Speaker 2: that's where you kind of get this half point of
Speaker 2: love for the Chargers. This was a plus three look aheadline,
Speaker 2: which I agree with you. I think that's more of
Speaker 2: a fair number, but it has ticked down to two
Speaker 2: and a half. I am afraid of Kirk Cousins on
Speaker 2: the road outdoors. I'm still not a believer in him.
Speaker 2: I don't like if Deeland's not in this game, but
Speaker 2: my gut is telling me that this Chargers team is
Speaker 2: still well below average Philip Rivers is still, you know,
Speaker 2: seconds away from stepping away from the game, but I
Speaker 2: don't know. It's suspiciously low. They're begging me to take
Speaker 2: the Vikings, so I think I just have to press
Speaker 2: pause on this game and step away.
Speaker 1: I you know, I completely get that. It is the
Speaker 1: line where I looked at it and be like, why
Speaker 1: do you want me to take the Vikings?
Speaker 2: What's wrong?
Speaker 1: What's wrong with taking the Vikings? You want me to
Speaker 1: take the Vikings. I don't understand this is problematic, but
Speaker 1: sometimes I just take the Vikings in that situation. Anyway,
Speaker 1: if I look at it and I run the numbers
Speaker 1: and everything sort of comes out that way, it does.
Speaker 1: Look the Charges are tough team to get a read
Speaker 1: on because they're better than their record. They could have,
Speaker 1: you know, been much better this season. But in the end,
Speaker 1: look the Vikings. They stop the run pretty well. They're
Speaker 1: vulnerable against the past. But if you're going to tell
Speaker 1: me that, you know, Philip Rivers is going to have
Speaker 1: to take this game and win it. I'm willing to
Speaker 1: risk that. And I have a little more faith and
Speaker 1: cousins than you do. I think he's played extremely well
Speaker 1: this year with or without Delan, I think they can
Speaker 1: get going, especially given their run game, which is strong
Speaker 1: all around, and Cook looks like he was fully healthy,
Speaker 1: you know, and if not, Alexander Mansen is perfectly cable
Speaker 1: of stepping in. So I'm going to be on the
Speaker 1: Vikings right now, so long as we're underneath a field goal.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Falcons at the forty nine ers.
Speaker 1: Forty nine ers currently laying ten and a half with
Speaker 1: a total of forty seven. The Falcons come off the
Speaker 1: drubbing of the Panthers. Their offensive line is getting a
Speaker 1: bit healthier, but they do lose Calvin Ridley, one of
Speaker 1: their best wide receivers. He's out now for the season
Speaker 1: with an abdomen injury. The forty nine ers, meanwhile, they
Speaker 1: win the monstrous game against the Saints. But they're coming
Speaker 1: off too really really tough games here, the first one
Speaker 1: against the Ravens, this one against the Saints. They are
Speaker 1: dealing with a ton of injuries. They're centers down, they're
Speaker 1: down Richard Sherman, they're down d Ford. They're really really
Speaker 1: struggling right now with the injuries. But they're obviously the
Speaker 1: Superor team here. So how do you feel about the
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers likening ten and a half at home
Speaker 1: with a total of forty seven.
Speaker 2: Yeah, despite that Marqui win, this line does not move
Speaker 2: off of the ten and a half look ahead, which
Speaker 2: is a bit surprising because I don't think the Falcons
Speaker 2: victory last week was earth shattering in any way, shape
Speaker 2: or form. I lean a tiny bit to the Niners
Speaker 2: in this spot because I think the Falcons are more
Speaker 2: of the team that we saw the first half of
Speaker 2: the season than the team that we've seen in the
Speaker 2: last couple of weeks, where they got a pair of
Speaker 2: wins against a Panthers team that has revealed itself to
Speaker 2: be a bit fraudulent. And there's just something about Matt
Speaker 2: Ryan going across the country outdoors without one of his
Speaker 2: marquee weapons that makes me very weary about taking them
Speaker 2: in the spot. That being said, you mentioned the two games.
Speaker 2: The game before that it was a bit of a
Speaker 2: boat racing by the Niners, but that Niners Packers game.
Speaker 2: A lot goes went into that game in terms of scheming.
Speaker 2: So three exhausting games in a row. So while I
Speaker 2: like the Niners, I don't love the Niners. What I
Speaker 2: do love is the under on forty seven. I think
Speaker 2: the Niners are very interested in getting back to their
Speaker 2: style of football, which is not eighty points in a dome.
Speaker 2: It is lining up and running the football in a
Speaker 2: lot of different ways, getting the ball to Brada Yushchek
Speaker 2: Mos dirt guys on jet sweeps, and just dominating at
Speaker 2: the line of skirmide. So I like the under on
Speaker 2: forty seven. I think the Niners go out and win
Speaker 2: this one pretty handily. So I do shade that ten
Speaker 2: and a half, but I feel like they might run
Speaker 2: the life out of this game and kind of just
Speaker 2: take advantage of a subpar Falcons Seafens.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good call. I don't really love either
Speaker 1: of these numbers. I honestly would have leaned towards the
Speaker 1: Falcons with Ridley there. It's a wide receiver. It doesn't
Speaker 1: really affect the number, you know, significantly, but Ridley is
Speaker 1: a fantastic football player, and I think without him being
Speaker 1: there as that second option. I know, Austin Hooper's back,
Speaker 1: DeVonta Freeman's back, but without Ridley being there for that
Speaker 1: second option, even though the Niners are down Richard Terman,
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be able to try to take
Speaker 1: Julio Jones out of this game, and that's going to
Speaker 1: really make the Falcons struggle. At the same time, I
Speaker 1: don't love it when you're over ten. That just makes
Speaker 1: me a little nervous because the Falcons. The one thing
Speaker 1: about them I was in one of the many who
Speaker 1: was calling for dan Quinn to be fired earlier in
Speaker 1: the season. They continue to play hard. I get, you know,
Speaker 1: you don't want to read too much into, you know,
Speaker 1: beating up on the Quinning Panthers team, but they continue
Speaker 1: to play tough. It's just not a team that I'm
Speaker 1: really looking to fade when they're getting double digits at
Speaker 1: this point. So this is probably gonna be a game
Speaker 1: that I'll stay away from. I do like your call
Speaker 1: on the under. Again, not something I'm overly excited about,
Speaker 1: but I do like that. You know, they're probably gonna
Speaker 1: want to get back to their bread and butter a
Speaker 1: little bit, especially with how good most of it looked
Speaker 1: this past weekend. Let's move on to the Rams that
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. This one is trending down. The Cowboys were
Speaker 1: laying three and the Rams come out and they beat
Speaker 1: up on the Seahawks and the Cowboys are currently laying
Speaker 1: one and the total has ticked up to forty nine.
Speaker 1: The Rams, as I mentioned, they're starting to peek a
Speaker 1: little bit here. The defense is playing out of its mind.
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley looks fresh. Robert Woods has finally gotten involved.
Speaker 1: The Cowboys, on the other hand, look awful. They're lifeless
Speaker 1: against both the Bills and the Bears. The defense is
Speaker 1: playing down. Amari Cooper is clearly battling through injury. So
Speaker 1: how do you feel here about the Cowboys laying one
Speaker 1: with the total forty nine?
Speaker 2: We talked about an interesting line move in that Bears
Speaker 2: Packers game. This was Cowboys minus four last week and
Speaker 2: now the Cowboys are plus one at home. Have two
Speaker 2: teams ping ponged more than the Rams and the Cowboys
Speaker 2: this season. Rams obviously coming off of a Super Bowl
Speaker 2: performance McVeigh the genius. They start off horrifically. Their offensive
Speaker 2: line kind of puts them in a horrific situation. Offense
Speaker 2: can't get going. Cowboys light the world on fire to
Speaker 2: start the season and now have regressed now that they've
Speaker 2: actually played a couple of good teams. This line movement
Speaker 2: is kind of crazy to me. Uh, I have to
Speaker 2: take the Cowboys here. I like the Cowboys money line,
Speaker 2: if you're queasy about that. I think the Cowboys are
Speaker 2: a great teaser candidate, getting them up to plus seven
Speaker 2: at home. They've got the mini by this is the
Speaker 2: season on the line, and I'm still not bought in
Speaker 2: to this Rams team. Their team is very obvious to
Speaker 2: figure out. Like I said, if you can get pressure
Speaker 2: on the quarterback, then you will have success against them.
Speaker 2: And I think Lawrence Quinn and the guys up front
Speaker 2: will be able to do enough to at least slow
Speaker 2: down this Rams offense. So I'm going to sell a
Speaker 2: peaking Ram stock and buy a plummeting Cowboys stock stocky
Speaker 2: stock low, give me the low stock here.
Speaker 1: By the way, you made the good catch. I said
Speaker 1: it was the Cowboys laying one, which it was the
Speaker 1: last time I checked, like two hours ago, and it's Cowboys.
Speaker 1: You're right plus one now, So that is a giant,
Speaker 1: giant line move. I don't think I could bring myself
Speaker 1: to back the Cowboys at this point, but I do
Speaker 1: see this as kind of something where the Rams just
Speaker 1: that's a huge win over the Seahawks on Sunday Night football.
Speaker 1: It's obviously a little bit of a short week for them.
Speaker 1: I think it's really tough to get up for this
Speaker 1: game at this point, now going into Dallas. So I
Speaker 1: think the Cowboys are the sharper side. I don't know
Speaker 1: if I'm really there to bet it, just because, oh
Speaker 1: my god, the Cowboys are just yea sucks, completely disinterested
Speaker 1: in winning football games. I think They're not gonna be
Speaker 1: able to run the ball as really as well as
Speaker 1: they need to. I think Jalen Ramsey can take out Cooper.
Speaker 1: So it's just a game where I think I'm going
Speaker 1: to stay away. But you know the the you know,
Speaker 1: when it was the Cowboys laying four, I saw laying
Speaker 1: three when I first saw it. That's the spot where
Speaker 1: I was taking the rams and I was not hesitating
Speaker 1: at this point. Now that the Cowboys are getting one,
Speaker 1: the sharp side is the Cowboys. But I'm you're a braver.
Speaker 2: Man than I.
Speaker 1: I'm like the so thick I could pull the trigger
Speaker 1: on this team at this point. Let's move on to
Speaker 1: the Bills. At the Steelers, this line has also moved.
Speaker 1: I saw the look at it, Steelers laying one. It's
Speaker 1: now up to Steelers laying two and a half. The
Speaker 1: total and abysmally low thirty six and a half. I
Speaker 1: might like the under. I'm not even joking. The Bills
Speaker 1: finally lose one here, a tough game against Baltimore. They
Speaker 1: were in it right up until the end. Now they
Speaker 1: have to travel to Pittsburgh. They're flex to Sunday Night Football.
Speaker 1: They take on a team that looks like it has
Speaker 1: absolutely no business being in the playoffs, but they continue
Speaker 1: to hold their own regardless of who they're playing. You
Speaker 1: can argue with Dot Hodges and the Steelers off. Maybe
Speaker 1: get James Connor back here. You can't argue with their defense, though,
Speaker 1: which has been absolutely elite over the last ten weeks
Speaker 1: or so. They win a close one against the Cardinals
Speaker 1: in Arizona. How do you feel here about the Steelers
Speaker 1: at home Sunday Night football laying two and a half
Speaker 1: with the total of fifty six and a half.
Speaker 2: Buffalo is only about two hundred miles from the Berg,
Speaker 2: so the mafia might be out. This is what ten
Speaker 2: years they were saying since last time the Bills were
Speaker 2: on Sunday Night Football. I don't know what to expect here.
Speaker 2: You talk about the total thirty six and a half,
Speaker 2: the range of outcomes here to me seems so narrow.
Speaker 2: What I mean is that whoever wins this game is
Speaker 2: going to win this by such a small margin, and
Speaker 2: there will be so few points scored in this game that, honestly,
Speaker 2: I think my favorite thing to do in this game
Speaker 2: is tease the Bills up to eight and a half,
Speaker 2: because unless the apocalypse takes place, like, how often are
Speaker 2: the Steelers winning this game by more than eight and
Speaker 2: a half points? These are two good defenses. I think
Speaker 2: I favor the Steelers a little bit more, but the
Speaker 2: Bills have an excellent run funnel, They do a terrific
Speaker 2: job defending the pass, and even if Connor comes back,
Speaker 2: I don't trust the Steelers to just line up and
Speaker 2: run the football. On the other side of the ball,
Speaker 2: Bills offense has been frisky. Josh Allens's highs have been
Speaker 2: very high, but the Steelers have a great pass rush
Speaker 2: and that's really helped out a not so talented secondary
Speaker 2: make a lot of plays. So I like you, somehow
Speaker 2: can see myself taking me under on thirty six and
Speaker 2: a half, And if I like the under on such
Speaker 2: a low total, I have to love the Bills as
Speaker 2: a teaser candidate getting eight and a half.
Speaker 1: I don't remember seeing a total this low, so I'm
Speaker 1: not going to go out there. I haven't been able
Speaker 1: to check yet. I didn't have a lot of time
Speaker 1: today but to check whether or not this is the
Speaker 1: lowest total of the season, because it strikes me that
Speaker 1: it is at thirty six and a half. But either way, yeah,
Speaker 1: I kind of lean towards the under. I don't really
Speaker 1: know if I'd be able to pull the trigger teaser
Speaker 1: Bills up two eight and a half. I completely agree.
Speaker 1: It is very difficult to see any scenario where this
Speaker 1: game becomes, you know, a nine point game or anything
Speaker 1: like that. If I'm forced to choose a side right now,
Speaker 1: and it may be one where I won't be forced
Speaker 1: to do it, and I'll just do it because I
Speaker 1: like the side. I kind of like the Bills here.
Speaker 1: I've been fading the Bills a lot. I kind of
Speaker 1: have been reluctant to buy into them. The game against
Speaker 1: the Ravens, man they were close to tying that thing
Speaker 1: up and pushing it to overtime. I really think that
Speaker 1: in the end, it's something where I think they're gonna
Speaker 1: win this game, and I think they can go in
Speaker 1: there and win this game. I think they're a better
Speaker 1: team than the Steelers. I get you know that the
Speaker 1: Steelers don't have much of a pass offense, so the
Speaker 1: fact that they funnel to the run doesn't really play
Speaker 1: in their favor. But I agree with you. I don't
Speaker 1: fully trust James Connor, even if he comes back anyway,
Speaker 1: if not, it's any Snell. This is not something where
Speaker 1: I'm excited about the Steilers. So this may be one
Speaker 1: where I'm just gonna bite the bullet and take the
Speaker 1: Bills getting two and a half. But certainly you make
Speaker 1: a great point with teasing them up, because I cannot
Speaker 1: see the Steelers being able to beat them by that
Speaker 1: much under any plausable scenario. Let's get to our final
Speaker 1: game here, Colts at the Saints, slaying nine and a half.
Speaker 1: That's up from eight which I saw just yesterday, a
Speaker 1: total of forty five and a half. I would not
Speaker 1: want to be the Colts right now. They're banged up
Speaker 1: with no t Y Hilton, who probably won't return for
Speaker 1: this one. They're now down Paris Campbell, there's no Eric Ebron,
Speaker 1: the magic looks to be running out, and now a
Speaker 1: game against the Saints in primetime in New Orleans. Awful loss.
Speaker 1: The Saints are dealing with some injuries to the defense,
Speaker 1: but they're obviously strong. The offense show that it's right there.
Speaker 1: How do you feel here, Saints slaying nine and a
Speaker 1: half total at forty five and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, referencing the banged up defense. Their rankins left the
Speaker 2: game with an ankle injury against the Niners, and Jared
Speaker 2: Cook suffered a concussion as well. How many times do
Speaker 2: we have to see the Saints do this at home
Speaker 2: before it becomes quality that we can assign to them
Speaker 2: with frequency. I think I have to like the Colts
Speaker 2: in this spot. I remember the first week of the
Speaker 2: season they were touchdown favorites against the Texans, nearly lost outright.
Speaker 2: Last year, same spot to open the season, big favorites
Speaker 2: against the Bucks did lose outright.
Speaker 1: The Saints are just not.
Speaker 2: The team that we've been used to seeing over these
Speaker 2: last couple of years. Last week a total anomaly, scoring
Speaker 2: that many points, specifically against a good defense, a defense
Speaker 2: as good as San Francisco's. I don't trust the Saints
Speaker 2: to push the ball downfield, extend leeds. Alvin Kamara is
Speaker 2: somehow playing worse than Latavius Murray, Like every Kamara call
Speaker 2: was a negative outcome for the Saints last week, which
Speaker 2: is just astounding. So yeah, I trust Frank Reich, I
Speaker 2: trust Jacoby Brissetts. I think the Colts can do enough,
Speaker 2: and worst case scenario, I think the back door will
Speaker 2: be open for this offense. Thing nine has to high
Speaker 2: for the Saints team.
Speaker 1: So for me, it really does depend a lot on
Speaker 1: Rankins and somewhat Uncook as well, because I think their
Speaker 1: run defense is dramatically better when Rankins is in there,
Speaker 1: and if he's not there, then I think the Colts
Speaker 1: are going to be able to effectively run Marlon Mack,
Speaker 1: which is really all they want to do at this point,
Speaker 1: because you know, there's pretty much other than Zach Pascal
Speaker 1: there and you know Jack Doyle, you know Ibron is gone.
Speaker 1: There's nobody for Jacoby Brissett to throw the ball to
Speaker 1: at this point. I don't see them being able to
Speaker 1: put up a lot of points or to keep it
Speaker 1: close so long as Rankins is in there. If he's out, yeah,
Speaker 1: this is a game I'm probably gonna stay away from.
Speaker 1: I'm not back in the Colts. The Saints are gonna
Speaker 1: be angry. Man. They are gonna come out there and
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a Kamara game where he's gonna go nuts.
Speaker 1: There just has to be. He hasn't really been playing
Speaker 1: all that bad. A lot of it has been the
Speaker 1: lack of touchdowns. He played terribly this last game against
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers, But I do think at some
Speaker 1: point he's gonna go boom. I think they're angry. I
Speaker 1: think they need a win. I just you know, depending
Speaker 1: on the injury. It's a lot of points. But if
Speaker 1: Sheldon Ringkins plays, I think I'd probably take the Saints
Speaker 1: so long as we're under ten. I think the Colts
Speaker 1: are gonna be the sharper side. I think they're gonna
Speaker 1: get the money. But for me, I'm okay laying the
Speaker 1: points because I do think this is gonna be a
Speaker 1: game where the Saints are gonna be angry and they're
Speaker 1: gonna take on the Colts. That's gonna do it. For
Speaker 1: today's show, Rich, it was really great having you back on.
Speaker 1: Remind everybody where they can find more of you in
Speaker 1: your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can check out the grid Iron Gamble podcast.
Speaker 2: Wherever you listen to podcasts, whether it be Apple, Stitcher, Spotify,
Speaker 2: and as always, you can follow us on Twitter at
Speaker 2: grid Iron Gamble. We tweet all our picks, we rib
Speaker 2: each other, and yeah, enjoy the last couple weeks of
Speaker 2: the season with us.
Speaker 1: Thanks all right man, you enjoy the last couple of
Speaker 1: weeks as well. Let's go Jets on Thursday night, hopefully
Speaker 1: that you and I can both witness our boys put
Speaker 1: up a monster upset over there. Thanks again to the
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Speaker 1: giving you some of our best bets for week fifteen.
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you about