1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on democracy. 2 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: There is at stake, and we have to have alliances 3 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: of people that strongly disagree on everything. But that fact 4 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: inflation is not going to be a problem. Placion will 5 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:20,959 Speaker 1: moderate Bloomberg Sound on politics, policy and perspective from DC's 6 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: top name. It would be insanity if the Democrats don't 7 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: do something on Bill back Better. Pennsylvania, one of the 8 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: closest states in the election, will be critical for deciding 9 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: which party controls the Senate. After Bloomberg Sound On with 10 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, it's fire host time once 11 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: again in Washington. Good thing we have the fastest hour 12 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 1: in politics. Welcome as the Biden administration launches a new 13 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 1: round of talks with Russia. President Biden making the big 14 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 1: push on voting rights. Tomorrow, the Fed Chair and Vice 15 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: Chair at least the nominee sit for confirmation hearings, and 16 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: Build back Better is still smoldering all this week and 17 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 1: coming up. Will be joined by Ed Mills, Washington policy 18 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:11,039 Speaker 1: analyst at Raymond James, to discuss the domestic side of things. Later, 19 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: we're joined by Thomas Pickering, former Ambassador to the u 20 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:18,319 Speaker 1: n former ambassador to Russia, to get into today's talks 21 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 1: in Geneva. The signature panel in place to start the week. 22 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Schanzano is here along with Rick 23 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: Davis for the hour. So tomorrow should be an adventure 24 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 1: for j Powell with the confirmation hearing against the backdrop 25 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 1: of rising inflation. As Doug just said himself, it's kind 26 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: of all we're talking about these days here, major worry 27 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 1: in the stock market despite today's recovery. Add COVID and 28 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: a midterm election year probably means a lot of grandstanding 29 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: over the course of this week. This Doug mentioned. We 30 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: got a little peek at the testimony. It's on the 31 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 1: terminal if you want to take a look. FED policy 32 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 1: must take a broad and forward looking view, will use 33 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: tools to support a bonomy and strong job market, will 34 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: stop higher inflation from getting entrenched. Of course, the big 35 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 1: inflation report is out the following day. Then Leo Brainerd 36 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: has her confirmation hearing the day after that. Brainerd yeah 37 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 1: testify after the consumer prices report out that that should 38 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:21,239 Speaker 1: be a good time. We're joined to start the hour 39 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 1: by Ed Mills, who's been watching all of this from 40 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: his perch as Washington policy analyst Managing director at Raymond James. 41 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: We thank you for being here. Ed you're right in 42 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 1: your latest research note that you expect lawmakers to focus 43 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 1: on inflation more than regulation. Is that good or bad 44 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,679 Speaker 1: news for J. Powell? Considering the news we have on 45 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 1: Mr Clarata today, Joe J. Powell is getting confirmed in 46 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 1: his job is to give Republicans a reason to stick 47 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:53,639 Speaker 1: with him, a reason to vote for his reconfirmation. If 48 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 1: you are J. Powell, you're talking about inflation. You're talking 49 00:02:56,919 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: about what you're going to do next um regulatory policy. 50 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: That's important, but that will be once there's a vice 51 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: chair or supervision chosen. Uh. That's for a future hearing, 52 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: and that's gonna be a doozy, I'm sure of just 53 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: considering those There's there's pent up emotions here and lawmakers 54 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: have been yelling about inflation, namely Republicans for months and months. 55 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 1: We watched build back better kind of fall apart at 56 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: the end of the year, and I'm going to ask 57 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,839 Speaker 1: you about where that's going here. But this has been 58 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: a market moving A lot of opinions have evolved on 59 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: inflation and everybody wants to film a commercial tomorrow, right, Yeah, 60 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: And that's what we always see in confirmation hearings, and 61 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 1: I think that's part of why you had the Poul 62 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: pivot UH late last year. He gave Congress exactly what 63 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 1: they were looking for, gave a preview of what you 64 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: would expect. UH. The real question to me is how 65 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 1: data dependent the FED will be going forward and how 66 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: much the other picks that UH President Biden has for 67 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: the FED will influence his ability to raise rates. I 68 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: certainly expect him to be aggressive, but when you get 69 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: the additional three nominations out there and confirmed to the board, 70 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 1: I think that's where some of this UH kind of 71 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: edge comes off, some of the aggressiveness that you'll hear 72 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:17,679 Speaker 1: from Powell and aggressiveness that you'll hear from the Senators tomorrow. 73 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,239 Speaker 1: This news from Richard Clarada, though leaving two weeks early, 74 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:23,799 Speaker 1: you know, resigning from the Board of Governors just gives 75 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: massive AMMO to Elizabeth Warren. Right, that's gonna be That's 76 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,160 Speaker 1: going to be her focus tomorrow is she tries to 77 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 1: to make j. Powell seem like once again a dangerous man, 78 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:38,039 Speaker 1: and she had these concerns before. She has already said 79 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: that she is not going to vote for him, Joe. 80 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 1: So Um, nothing that thing that work. Yeah, there's not 81 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:47,480 Speaker 1: a lot of change. I think it is raises questions 82 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 1: about how much the Fed was transparent about Clarens trading beforehand, 83 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: how much of it is a one off event, uh, 84 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: And it will put pressure on Powell to follow through 85 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: with the trading restrictions that the Fed announced uh late 86 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 1: last year. And there is a policy that he's going 87 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 1: to be able to point to saying going forward, this 88 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: is how we should do it. He should have done 89 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:13,480 Speaker 1: it earlier. But he does not need her vote, which 90 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 1: is a good thing for him. Brainard is not Powell. 91 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: How different will her confirmation hearing be. I think it 92 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,839 Speaker 1: will be similar. I think people will want to understand 93 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,919 Speaker 1: exactly what she plans to do as vice chair. She 94 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 1: made a name for herself over the last several years 95 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 1: Joe on regulatory policy, but that was really, in my mind, 96 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 1: signaling to Democrats that she was much more aligned with 97 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: their goals. Um. Certainly you mentioned that she's going to 98 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: testify after we get the CPI print, so once again 99 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: she does get the short end of the stick. I'm 100 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 1: also very interested, interested to see the testimony of Sandra Thompson, 101 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 1: which she will share the confirmation hearing with who's going 102 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:54,919 Speaker 1: to lead up f h f A, the regulator of 103 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 1: housing in this country, so we'll get some regulation there 104 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 1: in housing policy as well as her confirmation hearing on 105 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 1: Thursday both easily confirmed. It sounds like in your view, 106 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: it's not going to be an issue. I think they're 107 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 1: going to try to move them together. We'll get them 108 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 1: later this month. In terms of the other three, we 109 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 1: had Brian Diese on the broadcast on Friday, very similar 110 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: answer that Jensaki gave today when asked in the briefing room. 111 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 1: And there's really no news there. Do we think that 112 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: one of the nominees for these three open seats has 113 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: yet to be uh settled on or is somebody running 114 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: into an issue with vetting? You know, it's been the 115 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 1: biggest question of the Biden presidency is what is taking 116 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: so long with a lot of these nominations. It is 117 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 1: my expectation that Sarah Bloom Raskin will become the nominee 118 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,839 Speaker 1: for vice share or supervision. It seems very likely Lisa 119 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 1: Cook will be one of the governors as well as 120 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: Philip Jefferson as the third selection. Um, but it does 121 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: take paperwork. These are very complicated processes with a you 122 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: want to make sure you have everyone on board before 123 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,599 Speaker 1: you announce it. Looking back at Sarah Bloom Raskins prior 124 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: to confirmations, she was voted in by a voice vote, 125 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: so almost you can say unanimous in. Not going to 126 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: be a voice vote this time, but certainly far less 127 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: controversial than some of the other names discussed as by 128 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 1: Share Supervision head Mills. Let's turn to the legislative agenda here. 129 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 1: President Biden's leaving the bubble again tomorrow and headed for Georgia, 130 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: and in all by design, we haven't gotten a list 131 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: of names yet, but uh, we know he's on his 132 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 1: way there to talk about voting rights legislation. This is 133 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: the big pivot away from build back Better, at least 134 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 1: for now. Uh. The aforementioned Press Secretary Jen Psaki says 135 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: the President will articulate his support for changing the filibuster. 136 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 1: That was one little nugget we got in the briefing today, 137 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: and she spoke more broadly about what do you expect 138 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 1: from him tomorrow? Here's Saki. Everyone is going to have 139 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: to take a hard look at where they want to 140 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: be at this moment in history, as we're looking at 141 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: efforts across the country to UH to prevent people from 142 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 1: being able to exercise their fundamental rights. This is coming 143 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: off of the January six speech here. This does appear 144 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 1: ed to be the priority for now. But well does 145 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: this guy named Joe Manchin who was an issue with 146 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: Bill back better. It looks like he will be with 147 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: this as well when it comes to changing philibus to rules. 148 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 1: Is this going nowhere? Ed? Is this just a matter 149 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: of getting the troops rallied in the midterm election year. Yeah, 150 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned that second point joke, because I 151 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 1: think that's what a lot of this is about. Fundamentally, 152 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 1: these are really important issues for the country, really important 153 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 1: issues for Democrats, UM, but they don't have the votes. 154 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: So they are going to send a message to the 155 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: base that says, here is why UH Democrats should show 156 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 1: up and vote in November. If we had one more vote, 157 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:50,199 Speaker 1: two more votes, this is what Democrats say. Here is 158 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: what we would do. Unfortunately for Democrats, they don't have 159 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:57,319 Speaker 1: the votes right now. There is a small chance that 160 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: you could get some changes. But Mansion says that he 161 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,439 Speaker 1: would only do that on a bipartisan basis. There's no 162 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 1: Republican voting for any of these changes. I'm just struck 163 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 1: by how consistent people are in answering that question. Is 164 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:14,959 Speaker 1: this then just election in your theater? This is what 165 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 1: we do in DC, um, you know, And I'm no, 166 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: it is. I mean, it's it's it's fundamental. It's it's 167 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: interesting to me. I had a conversation a couple of 168 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: months ago with the former head of the Congressional Black Caucus, 169 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 1: and when I was talking to him about Bill back better, 170 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 1: he wanted to talk about voting rights for individual members, 171 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 1: for individual senators. There is no more important issue than 172 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: voting rights. So around the MLK holiday in the state 173 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 1: of Georgia u key to kind of some of the 174 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 1: civil rights era. They are seeing this as their last 175 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 1: big push to get this done. It does not look 176 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 1: like it will happen. But just because it can't happen 177 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: in politics doesn't mean that's why you don't push for it. 178 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: You have to try to do the impossible because that's 179 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 1: what they were elected to do. Well, that's right. You look, 180 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 1: you've got principle involved. And if this thing fails it's 181 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 1: going to be a big motivator. I suspect that the 182 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,439 Speaker 1: President is hoping here. You've put another date out there 183 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 1: in your in your most recent note to clients, that's 184 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: March one, that's State of the Union, uh, Ed Mills. 185 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 1: You have not walked away from build Back Better. In fact, 186 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: you say it will get a renewal in attention ahead 187 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: of the State of the Union address. I'm assuming that 188 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:28,319 Speaker 1: this thing would come out in a much different form though, 189 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 1: if it were to re emerge. Yeah, and so um, 190 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:35,199 Speaker 1: that is the new target date in our minds. Get 191 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 1: through some of the peak of the omicron variant, get 192 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: through this fight on voting rights, uh in on the filibuster, 193 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:47,079 Speaker 1: and try by March first, when the President has his 194 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: State of the Union address, to get a deal struck 195 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:53,959 Speaker 1: with Senator Mansion. It will be an interesting dynamic to 196 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 1: play out, is if it is Mansion once again preventing 197 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: those voting rights changes. Does that further sour the relationship 198 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: or are they getting to say, you know, if you're 199 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: not doing this at the gills of what you said 200 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: you're okay with on build Back Better, progressives have to 201 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:14,959 Speaker 1: further downgrade their expectations. But The sense that I get 202 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 1: from all conversations in d C is the expectation is 203 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 1: still there that something gets done. Child tax credit looming 204 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: along with that February the expiration of government funding. So 205 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 1: once again we've got a couple of things to figure out. 206 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 1: In a real pleasure to talk this out with Ed Mills, 207 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 1: Washington policy analyst and managing director at Raymond James. No 208 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 1: stranger to our airways, but Ed, I'd love to have 209 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: you back again soon as we keep an eye on 210 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:42,439 Speaker 1: the agenda, a Washington insider to get us started. We've 211 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:45,199 Speaker 1: got two more on the way, Rick Davis, Jeanie Chanzano 212 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: our signature panel on a Monday, and I should note 213 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:51,839 Speaker 1: you'll be hearing the President speak tomorrow in Georgia. Will 214 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 1: have much more of that for you here on sound 215 00:11:54,480 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: on Markets Traffic ahead, This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. 216 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 1: You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, quoting 217 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 1: rights on this week's agenda in Congress, as I read 218 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg. Governments with the second session of the hundred 219 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 1: seventeenth Congress getting underway officially in the US House, joining 220 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:21,560 Speaker 1: the Senate, that was back to it last week. As 221 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:25,319 Speaker 1: we just talked with Ed Mills, Democrats in the Senate 222 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 1: have big plans to pursue efforts to advance voting rights legislation. 223 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: The majority leader, Chuck Schumer gearing up for a high 224 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 1: stakes floor battle. I'm planning to use most of the 225 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 1: days leading up to the Martin Luther King Jr. Recess 226 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: in an effort to shore up the Voting Rights Act 227 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: of nineteen sixty five. But then there's Joe Mansion. And 228 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 1: let's not forget kirston cinema. She always gets away with 229 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:55,959 Speaker 1: the right, didn't Joe Man She is always getting blamed 230 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: for this. They're completely aligned on not tinkering with the 231 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 1: Philip Buster. And so if we can hear from Jen Psaki, 232 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: this is another part of the conversation today in the 233 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 1: the White House briefing. Uh she's talking about voting rights 234 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 1: as a concept not very controversial all that long ago, 235 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: and even reference Mitch McConnell's former support for at least 236 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 1: approaching this issue. Here's White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki 237 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: again two thousand four. Leader McConnell, I cannot think of 238 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 1: any reason why anyone on either side of the Aisle 239 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: would oppose the Protection of the Franchise of All Americans 240 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: two thousand and six. The Voting Rights Act of represents 241 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: one of this country's greatest steps forward. Obviously arrest today 242 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 1: and support of its re authorization, but not on board 243 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 1: like that now, And so I don't know. Do we 244 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 1: even ask if there could be some Republicans support for 245 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 1: this shore It doesn't seem like it. But President Biden 246 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: is traveling to Georgia tomorrow to start beating the drum. 247 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 1: They say they need all the support they can get. 248 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: As we assemble the panel, Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Shenzano 249 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 1: and Rick Davis, Genie, what's your thought on this as 250 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: we talked about it with Ed Mills. Is this a 251 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:18,079 Speaker 1: vanity project for Democrats to get the fever going here 252 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: in an election cycle or might there actually be something 253 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 1: that could be passed that the President wants to propose tomorrow. Well, 254 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 1: they're not going to get the big voting rights bills 255 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 1: past that Chuck Schumer is talking about. But the President 256 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 1: is going to flee Washington as Congress comes back, and 257 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 1: he's going to use his bully pulpit, and he's going 258 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 1: to try to persuade starting with these voters in Georgia 259 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: and across the nation, that we do need voting rights 260 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 1: and voting rights bill. He is right about that. The 261 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: problem is Democrats, as we've talked about and you were 262 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 1: just talking about, simply don't have the votes to get 263 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 1: it done. But the president is banking on the fact 264 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 1: that they've it's a key battleground state. There's been a 265 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 1: lot of questions about voting in Georgia and across the country, 266 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: and he's going to go there, you know, and talk 267 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 1: about this for the next week through Martin Luther King Day. 268 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: But again, they simply don't have the big numbers they 269 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: need in Congress, particularly the Senate, to get the big 270 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: bill pass that Chuck Schumer's talking about. So I have 271 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: less questions about what Biden is doing than what Schumer 272 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 1: is doing. Interesting, So, yeah, what's your thought on that here? Rick? 273 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 1: They say this is what the bully pulpit is for. 274 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 1: But does does Joe Biden read this any differently than 275 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: than the rest of us. He realizes that the votes 276 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 1: are not there, does he expect this speech to change 277 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 1: minds tomorrow? Or is this about being caught in the 278 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 1: act doing something right. I don't think you'll hear any advocacy. 279 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 1: I think you'll hear um the bully pulpit right exactly 280 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: what you described. I think that he is being very 281 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,880 Speaker 1: deferential to Representative Clyburn, who this is one of his 282 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: top priorities. Uh. He would not be president United States 283 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: today without represent Clyburn's work during the primaries. And and 284 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: this is good to get his base stoked up, especially 285 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: at a time right after January six when he took 286 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 1: hard shots at Donald Trump. This is sort of in 287 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:13,119 Speaker 1: line with protecting our democracy and fueling a big democratic 288 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: turnout for So this has I think zero to do 289 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: with Congress and everything to do with the democratic prospects 290 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 1: in the mid terms. So the payoff in is next November. 291 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 1: The payoff would be in November where he would hope 292 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 1: that this is the kind of issue that would get 293 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: Democrats excited and exactly how you were talking earlier with uh, 294 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 1: with that, um, maybe pick up a couple of seats 295 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 1: in the Senate so you could actually do something about it. Yeah, boy, 296 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 1: not like you know, we don't have a lot of 297 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 1: other stuff to get done here, Genie, Is this the 298 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: best way to spend time, and it maybe you look, 299 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 1: politically speaking, this might be the time to start lighting 300 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 1: fires if you're if you're the Democratic president here looking 301 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: at at a difficult midterm election cycle. But we had 302 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 1: this thing called Build Back Better that was a really 303 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 1: big priority before the new year, and that's not getting 304 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: any attention this week now. Yeah, and and the president, look, 305 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 1: this is critical to his base and he needs to 306 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 1: be able to do more than one thing. So yes, 307 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,920 Speaker 1: get his base excited talk about voting rights. But I 308 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:16,200 Speaker 1: you know, my concern is that Democrats also have to 309 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 1: understand that for the base, this is critically important. For 310 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:24,159 Speaker 1: most Americans, they are much more concerned about number one, 311 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: the pandemic and number two the economy and issues like inflation. 312 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 1: So yes, they've got a push for voting rights. They're 313 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 1: not going to get it through Congress, but they've got 314 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: to talk about it. And then they've got to focus 315 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 1: on the pandemic number one, and inflation, jobs in the 316 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,440 Speaker 1: economy number two, because that's what people are voting on. 317 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 1: You look at the polls. I love to talk about 318 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: the health and state it's you know, state of American democracy, 319 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 1: but people are not going to vote on that in November, 320 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 1: and if this is going to be one in the 321 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 1: independent moderate swing districts, they need to focus on those 322 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: those issues that people care about. If there's something here, 323 00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: If there's something here, when you get the passion from 324 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:03,360 Speaker 1: Genie voting rights, you'll hear a lot more about it tomorrow. 325 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,159 Speaker 1: As we turned to the situation with Russia next and 326 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: a conversation. I'm looking forward to former Ambassador Thomas Pickering 327 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,880 Speaker 1: with us here on Bloomberg sound on Labom Live Next. 328 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:20,399 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from our nation's capital, Bloomberg 329 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 1: to New York, Bloomberg eleven Frio to Boston, Bloomberg one 330 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 1: oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to 331 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: the country Sirius XM Channel one ninety and around the 332 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. 333 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matt Hugh headline 334 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 1: on the terminal. US and Russia about to keep talking 335 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:50,160 Speaker 1: as their differences persist. Today in Geneva was the first 336 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:55,160 Speaker 1: of three rounds this week. Today between Russia's deputy Foreign 337 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 1: Minister and our Deputy Secretary of State that will be 338 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 1: followed by a NATO Russia meeting Wednesday in Brussels, and 339 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: then Thursday a meeting of the Organization of Security and 340 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: Cooperation in Europe that happens in Vienna. Will they be 341 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,639 Speaker 1: enough to avoid war in Ukraine? We'll talk about it 342 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 1: next with Thomas Pickering, former US Ambassador to the U 343 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 1: n was also ambassador to the Russian Federation. The meeting 344 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 1: today lasted eight hours. Imagine is that right? Eight hours 345 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 1: sitting with Russia's deputy foreign minister in the world waiting 346 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 1: for results. The reality today for US Deputy Secretary of 347 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,639 Speaker 1: State Wendy Sherman met in Geneva. As I mentioned, with 348 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: her Russian counterpart, Deputy Foreign Minister sir Gey Rabecoff. Both 349 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 1: spoke optimistically, actually pretty positive with the spin. When they emerged. 350 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: White House Press Secretary Jensaki asked about it as you 351 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 1: would expect, telling reporters today in the briefing room, Russia 352 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 1: has a clear choice here. You can take the path 353 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,880 Speaker 1: to diplomacy. There's two more rounds of talks this week. 354 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 1: We've seen them as a package of three, which I 355 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 1: think they also reiterated from their side, or there's a 356 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:02,360 Speaker 1: path of escalation. We are certainly hopeful that the path 357 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: of diplomacy is the path that they will take. Stakes 358 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: are high, and that's where we start with Thomas Pickering. 359 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 1: I'm so glad we have him back today, the former 360 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 1: US Ambassador to the U n also former ambassador to 361 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 1: Russia among several other nations during his career in the 362 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:22,680 Speaker 1: US Foreign service. Mr Ambassador, welcome back. How worried should 363 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 1: we be about Russia? There's no chance now that we 364 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 1: should put aside all worries. On the other hand, the 365 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: beginning of diplomatic context in this intensive way is a 366 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:42,720 Speaker 1: hopeful sign, but not an answer to the problem that will, 367 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,920 Speaker 1: in my humble view, take a long time. I know 368 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:50,680 Speaker 1: both of these people very well. They're both very serious. 369 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: They're both studied, deeply conscious well experienced diplomats. They will 370 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: defend the interests of their own country, while at the 371 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: same time they spend the time necessary to look for 372 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: the openings that are there, despite what we know to 373 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 1: be the hard words that are always exchanged in the 374 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 1: opening meetings of this sort. What does progress look like 375 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: for the U S ambassador? What could Vladimir Putin do 376 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 1: to make the US happy? Here? For lack of a 377 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 1: better word, would it be actually moving troops away from 378 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,479 Speaker 1: the border. That would be one of the things. Another 379 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,679 Speaker 1: would be the adoption of some form of the Minsk 380 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: to Agreement on Ukraine in terms of Russian activities inside Ukraine. Uh, 381 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 1: And certainly there would be on the Russian side a 382 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 1: serious interest in some kind of stand still in the 383 00:21:54,840 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 1: growth or movement of NATO to the east. You mentioned 384 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: you know these two, these two gentlemen Putin Biden. Does 385 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin respect Joe Biden. I know Biden and Putin, 386 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 1: but not nearly as well as I know the two diplomats, 387 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 1: But I believe there is respect. The fact that the 388 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 1: two have had now a summit and several successive important 389 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 1: calls setting up this diplomatic process is a significant indication 390 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 1: of the fact that both of them treat each other 391 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:33,680 Speaker 1: as serious players, and that both of them are seeking, 392 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: through the diplomatic process hopefully to get an answer rather 393 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 1: than necessarily a stalemate in this problem. You meant Sherman 394 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 1: and Rabkoff in your first reference. I understand that now, 395 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:49,400 Speaker 1: are they the right people to have in the room. 396 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 1: Yes they are. They're both uh second most senior in 397 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 1: Russia and the United States in the diplomatic establishment. They're 398 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 1: both very serious people, They're both very knowledgeable people. They're 399 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 1: both have had lots of diplomatic experience. Ambassador President Biden 400 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,480 Speaker 1: had said, there are red lines, Namely, the red line 401 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 1: is promising Ukraine will never join NATO, says it's not 402 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: going to happen. Are red lines smart at this stage? 403 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 1: Didn't Vladimir Putin learn otherwise? When the anex crimea red 404 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:30,920 Speaker 1: lines are red lines, they indicate the distance which the 405 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 1: other side is not currently prepared to go. Often the 406 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 1: arrangements that result are worked out around red lines, and sometimes, 407 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:49,159 Speaker 1: because red lines can move on both sides, they're worked 408 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:53,479 Speaker 1: out in ways that, in one way or another, cross 409 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: the red line, but with significant advantages on both sides. 410 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 1: To justify doing that, we're much too early to be 411 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: talking about anything like that, although clearly, uh some movement 412 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 1: in both sides in each of these particular areas that 413 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 1: we talked about a minute ago would be very helpful 414 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 1: for improving the atmosphere and opening the door for further steps. 415 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:27,160 Speaker 1: But in traditional diplomacy that often takes a great deal 416 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 1: of time. Certainly, one meeting at the beginning of a 417 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 1: process is very rarely a solution to the difficulty. I 418 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 1: asked you if you thought Putin had respect for Joe Biden. 419 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:44,200 Speaker 1: Some are suggesting that Vladimir Putin is asking for things 420 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 1: he knows he cannot get, like the Red line on Ukraine. 421 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,399 Speaker 1: He knows the US will not promise something like that, 422 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:57,520 Speaker 1: so therefore will have his demands rejected and therefore justify 423 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:01,119 Speaker 1: military action domestically. When you know, however this plays with 424 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 1: the people of Russia. Are you that cynical ambassador to 425 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 1: view it this way? I would suggest you ask for 426 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: everything you want, whether you know you will get it 427 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 1: or not. And both sides started negotiation that way. That way, 428 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:23,800 Speaker 1: they have put on the table an outline of what 429 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,920 Speaker 1: they hope to achieve, even if at the end they 430 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 1: expect the real achievement will be something less. But having 431 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 1: put it this way, pretty vast aspirations at the beginning 432 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 1: is seen to be a useful way to buttress your 433 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: capacity to get as much as possible at the end. 434 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:53,200 Speaker 1: Thomas Pickering, former Ambassador to the United Nations, Ambassador to Russia, India, Israel, Nigeria, 435 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 1: Jordan's and El Salvador does the longest business card in 436 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: the Foreign Service, and we're to light it as ever, Ambassador, 437 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 1: to have you here on sound on. Now, Dyna know 438 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 1: what was on in the background. All right? We reassemble 439 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,359 Speaker 1: the panel next, Rick and Genie with us on Russia 440 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,680 Speaker 1: and the US on sound on. I'm Joe Matthew. This 441 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound on with 442 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. And so the US and 443 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 1: Russia vow to keep talking, and they will have an 444 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,600 Speaker 1: opportunity to do so. Of course, we've got two more 445 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 1: sessions this week, not one on one quite like this, 446 00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 1: but we'll have the big NATO meeting on Wednesday and 447 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,120 Speaker 1: then another session in Vienna on Thursday as we try 448 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,119 Speaker 1: to figure out what's going on here. No one is 449 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 1: expecting any major breakthroughs this week, but not that much 450 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,040 Speaker 1: time can go on into that end. We reassemble the 451 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 1: panel with Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Chanzano and Rick Davis. 452 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,680 Speaker 1: What do you think, Rick about today's at least this 453 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,760 Speaker 1: first of three sessions here, the headlines that came out 454 00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 1: of this meeting were actually pretty positive. I know you 455 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 1: have pretty strong feelings about Vladimir Putin. Uh, and and 456 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 1: when it when it comes to our relationship with Russia 457 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:09,959 Speaker 1: in general. And so I would ask you what does 458 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 1: progress look like, as I asked Ambassador Pickering, is it 459 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,399 Speaker 1: actually the withdrawal of troops or there or there more 460 00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 1: bite sized pieces that we should look for here? I 461 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,960 Speaker 1: think right now, as Inbastador, Pickering said, I think you 462 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:25,439 Speaker 1: can construe not having an invasion right now as progress. Right. 463 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,480 Speaker 1: I mean, that was sort of where we started a 464 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 1: month and and and I think that the fact that 465 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 1: those troops are still on the Russian side of the 466 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,639 Speaker 1: border is a good thing. And I think the fact 467 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,040 Speaker 1: that we now have this in a structured process with 468 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:42,600 Speaker 1: two pros uh from both sides as uh, as Ambassador 469 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 1: Pickering mentioned, actually is a refreshing departure from the four 470 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 1: years of Donald Trump's negotiating style, where there was no process, 471 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,200 Speaker 1: there was no strategy, it was just whatever he put 472 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,639 Speaker 1: out on Twitter that day. And you know, frankly advantage 473 00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin. So uh, this hopefully will result in something. 474 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 1: But I don't think we should be in any hurry uh. 475 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 1: Every single day, Uh, Vladimir Putin's got to pay those 476 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 1: guys who are on a uh snow sweat border, you know, 477 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 1: to keep sober and uh and be ready for an invasion. 478 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 1: And that's that's a heavy lift. If you're the Russian president, 479 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,119 Speaker 1: that would be the that would be the forest prone 480 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 1: to drunkenness and sloth. I believe right, Rick Davis, if 481 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 1: that's a quote, you can you can count me in 482 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 1: on that. That's right. We will not pull out the 483 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,440 Speaker 1: gas station without We won't do that either. But uh, 484 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 1: Genie are these are the two right people to have 485 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 1: in the room. Maybe this should never be Biden putin? 486 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 1: Doesn't that lower the temperature and allow more to get 487 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 1: done on the deputy level? Like this? It does, And 488 00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 1: they are the right people to have in the room. 489 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,200 Speaker 1: And and quite frankly, just having these talks is really 490 00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,480 Speaker 1: important and it is a step forward. As the ambassador 491 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 1: was saying, you let everybody get out on the table 492 00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,480 Speaker 1: exactly what they want, even if it is a non starter, 493 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,959 Speaker 1: as the White House likes to say, and you let 494 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 1: them air that, and you you respond to those things 495 00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 1: and you find some common ground. Maybe that ground is 496 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:09,640 Speaker 1: going to be on weapons. Maybe it's going to be 497 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 1: on missiles. It you know, according to the White House. 498 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 1: It's certainly not going to be on Russia dictating who 499 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 1: European countries can have as their allies or who NATO 500 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,960 Speaker 1: invites in. But you get that all out there, and 501 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 1: that is an important step forward. So I think they 502 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 1: are on the right track on this. The spin is 503 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 1: is a riot when you think of the stuff that 504 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,680 Speaker 1: we hear from, you know, from the meeting of presidents. 505 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:36,520 Speaker 1: Uh Rabkoff says business like and professional. Wendy Sherman said 506 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 1: the talks were frank and fourth. Right, Uh, what do 507 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,640 Speaker 1: we think the tone is in the room for for 508 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,480 Speaker 1: this particular meeting, because there was a lot of tough 509 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 1: talk going into it. Yeah, and I'm sure there's a 510 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 1: lot of tough talk in the room itself, right, I mean, 511 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 1: these are folks who understand this is not personal. This 512 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:58,680 Speaker 1: is a kabuki theater where the more extreme and and 513 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 1: and the more uh flamboyant you can be in your 514 00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 1: description of the situation, the best you can press your case. Um. Uh. 515 00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 1: The reason it took seven or eight hours is probably 516 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 1: to cover one or two topics, and and that's because 517 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 1: the theater requires that. Um that's better than fighting. And 518 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 1: so if you've got a choice between this kind of 519 00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 1: theater and troops crossing the border with armed weapons. I 520 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,480 Speaker 1: go for theater every day. As I read our story 521 00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:29,920 Speaker 1: on the terminal here, there's a section just on exercises 522 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 1: and missiles. To your point, Genie, this is uh what 523 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,680 Speaker 1: we were talking about in part today. Not parking missiles 524 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:40,280 Speaker 1: on the border, I guess is one thing. Uh. NATO 525 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 1: restricting military exercises in a certain region is another, which 526 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,880 Speaker 1: would be a more meaningful gesture on our part. Or 527 00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,440 Speaker 1: does the US hold the line on these? You know? 528 00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,120 Speaker 1: I think they would welcome both of those. Um. I 529 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 1: don't don't know that the US and its European allies 530 00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:58,800 Speaker 1: are going to get there or NATO is going to 531 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 1: get there, But I do think there's something to be said. 532 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,680 Speaker 1: There's a narrative in the West that you know, Valden 533 00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 1: rid Putin has you know, is completely you know, off 534 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 1: off the tracks here. But the reality is to a 535 00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 1: certain extent as you go back, the US and and 536 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:15,560 Speaker 1: NATO have to take some responsibility for what is going 537 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:17,920 Speaker 1: on there as you try to turn the Ukraine into 538 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 1: a Western stronghold. This goes back well before Biden. We 539 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 1: are right on their border. If that was us and 540 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 1: they were in Canada or Mexico, we might feel the 541 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:29,520 Speaker 1: same way. So I do think there is common ground 542 00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,880 Speaker 1: to come to their and we have to not be 543 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,800 Speaker 1: so fast to dismiss what this what the issues that 544 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 1: Putin is raising, at least to a certain extent, some 545 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,240 Speaker 1: of them are relevant. Would that make us, though, Rick Davis, 546 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:45,000 Speaker 1: look like we were sort of uh afraid of the 547 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 1: the interceptions that that that we were running back to 548 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 1: the United States because we didn't want to intercept their 549 00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,800 Speaker 1: jets or we didn't want to have, uh, have to 550 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,640 Speaker 1: worry about their their ships in any particular region. This 551 00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 1: is normally what this is part of the drill, right 552 00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 1: when NATO is out there, whether you're over Alaska or 553 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:04,720 Speaker 1: you're over parts of Asia, these things take place and 554 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,040 Speaker 1: it's it's part of a Cold war, I guess, is 555 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 1: what we should call it. Right, Well, no, I mean, 556 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 1: I'm not sure that we were describing the problem accurately. 557 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 1: I mean, NATO is a unit of protection in countries 558 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 1: that have free people, right, And the reason that Vladimir 559 00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,400 Speaker 1: Putin is nervous about NATO on his border is because 560 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 1: it's freedom versus you know, authoritarianism and he's having a 561 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:30,040 Speaker 1: hard time making authoritarian is um stick. He's got problems 562 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 1: in Kazakhstan where they're killing their own people, his folks 563 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,239 Speaker 1: in Baylarus Lukashenko has been killing his own people. I mean, 564 00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 1: like this model isn't like panting out so well for 565 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 1: the guy. So this is a distraction that he's trying 566 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,120 Speaker 1: to make to try and make Menato the boogeyman. NATO 567 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 1: is there to protect free people. Ukraine wants to be free. 568 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,480 Speaker 1: It does not want to be a part of the 569 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:55,080 Speaker 1: new Vladimir Putin Soviet Union. And and and we should 570 00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:59,160 Speaker 1: be offering comfort and freedom to people's all over the world, 571 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,120 Speaker 1: regardless of who's on their border. These are sovereign countries 572 00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 1: and they should be able to make decisions on their own. 573 00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:08,440 Speaker 1: How cynical are we here, Genie, with the narrative that 574 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 1: that Vladimir Putin has full intention of invading Ukraine and 575 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,800 Speaker 1: is his outlining demands that he knows Joe Biden will 576 00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 1: not meet to sort of justify that action. Uh, you know, 577 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,360 Speaker 1: I don't know, he said. There seems today like the 578 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:24,920 Speaker 1: idea that they are going to invade is not quite 579 00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,200 Speaker 1: as you know, likely to happen. As it might have 580 00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,960 Speaker 1: been yesterday. But you know, I do think he is 581 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,440 Speaker 1: going to call Joe Biden on the fact that Joe 582 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 1: Biden does not want to send troops and we don't 583 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 1: want to send troops into the Ukraine. But there are 584 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 1: other tools in the toolbox there in. The White House 585 00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 1: has been right to talk about those, including very serious sanctions, 586 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 1: and the White House is right to, you know, hold 587 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:50,280 Speaker 1: the line on things like the fact that you can't 588 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,560 Speaker 1: dictate to other countries who they align with, and they're 589 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:55,600 Speaker 1: not going to dictate to NATO who they invite in. 590 00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:58,400 Speaker 1: So we too have our red lines, but we're not 591 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,360 Speaker 1: going to be sending troops. And but they're are other 592 00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:02,760 Speaker 1: things we can do. But I think most importantly, the 593 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,760 Speaker 1: United States cannot be promising to do these things without 594 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,359 Speaker 1: talking to his allies. And that's something the White House, 595 00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,960 Speaker 1: unlike the previous administration, has been very clear on. What's 596 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,359 Speaker 1: your thought on that? Rick you when when you when 597 00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:17,360 Speaker 1: you look Vladimir Putin in the eyes, how cynical are 598 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,000 Speaker 1: you when you consider his motivations? Oh, I don't think 599 00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,560 Speaker 1: you can trust a single thing that he says. He's 600 00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 1: a bona fide liar and killer. So I mean, like, 601 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,880 Speaker 1: consider who you're dealing on moving right along. I mean, 602 00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,840 Speaker 1: you know, but that's a practical way, right, A realist 603 00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,800 Speaker 1: and diplomacy has to understand that they can't trust what 604 00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,800 Speaker 1: he says, they can only trust what he does, and 605 00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 1: so the diplomats will be looking for actions, not promises, 606 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,760 Speaker 1: and those actions like what you were talking about earlier 607 00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,960 Speaker 1: with Ambassador Pickering, withdrawal from the border of the troops 608 00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:53,200 Speaker 1: that are stationed there, um some progress with the troops 609 00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,919 Speaker 1: they already have in the Ukraine. We gotta remember they've 610 00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,439 Speaker 1: already invaded the Ukraine once those people are still there, 611 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 1: a certain conduct while they're in there that the Minsk 612 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,920 Speaker 1: agreements you know, set up and and that Russian should 613 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,160 Speaker 1: be abiding by. So this is all a part of 614 00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 1: making countries like Russia like Putin abide by Western norms 615 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:16,439 Speaker 1: that uh, frankly have been adopted by most of the world. 616 00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:19,600 Speaker 1: So what to do with Crimea then, is that part 617 00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:23,440 Speaker 1: of going back to to Men's or or or or 618 00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,399 Speaker 1: what's your thought there? Rick, Well, I think you've you've 619 00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,680 Speaker 1: got to engage in a discussion about how to get 620 00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:31,719 Speaker 1: the Russian troops out of Crimea, because part of the 621 00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:35,600 Speaker 1: fundamental discussion is taking place in these sessions is that 622 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,920 Speaker 1: Ukraine's a sovereign country and that that was an illegal 623 00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:43,279 Speaker 1: invasion and and so sure, UH, that will be part 624 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:47,680 Speaker 1: of the discussion with the Russian negotiators UH as we 625 00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,879 Speaker 1: we make these talks. And and that can be both 626 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:54,800 Speaker 1: an advantage for the United States negotiators because they have 627 00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:58,040 Speaker 1: a bargaining chip there. But you know, it makes it 628 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:01,359 Speaker 1: even that much more difficult to believe the Russians when 629 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,239 Speaker 1: they say to you that they're de escalating unless they 630 00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:09,120 Speaker 1: actually do. It's up to UH to representatives from NATO 631 00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,160 Speaker 1: to carry the next session. Of course US representatives will 632 00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:15,520 Speaker 1: be their genie. But does that decentralizing of talks help 633 00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:19,400 Speaker 1: this administration. I think it does to a certain extent. 634 00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,239 Speaker 1: And one of the big challenges here, as we've talked about, 635 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,400 Speaker 1: is the issue of energy. Europe you know, is to 636 00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,280 Speaker 1: a certain extent widely dependent on Russia for its energy, 637 00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,960 Speaker 1: and those costs are up like over last year. So 638 00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,120 Speaker 1: that is one of the reasons that this is happening 639 00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:38,279 Speaker 1: now in the winter, because this is something that Putin understands. 640 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 1: So I do think that it is going to be 641 00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:42,440 Speaker 1: helpful to have them in there. It's going to take 642 00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,440 Speaker 1: some of the pressure off of the United States to 643 00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,880 Speaker 1: act unilaterally or to speak as we should not be 644 00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,480 Speaker 1: doing by ourselves. We should be doing it with our allies. 645 00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,600 Speaker 1: We clearly have a lot to figure out here. Still 646 00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:58,040 Speaker 1: a great conversation with Genie and Rick on the only 647 00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:01,080 Speaker 1: program you hear the signature paneled that's sound on. Thanks 648 00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:04,640 Speaker 1: as well to Ambassador Pickering and Ed Mills for being 649 00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:06,719 Speaker 1: with us. A great conversation to start the week. I'll 650 00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,600 Speaker 1: meet you back here this time tomorrow. I'm Joe Matthew. 651 00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:10,600 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg