Speaker 1: Buy the rumor, sell the news. You ever heard that before?
Speaker 1: What does that even mean? Well, it's something I've been
Speaker 1: talking about for about six or eight weeks and it
Speaker 1: came true. We saw a buy the rumor, sell the
Speaker 1: news event. And I'm talking about what happened with bitcoin
Speaker 1: and the ETFs that launched open. If you're just tuning in,
Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Mas Show, we're talking about
Speaker 1: the intersection between politics, finance, and technology, and of course
Speaker 1: we're talking about the decentralized revolution. And today we're talking
Speaker 1: about what happened with bitcoin, the launch of the ETF
Speaker 1: why did the price go down? And what the heck
Speaker 1: is going on now? More importantly, what should we be
Speaker 1: watching and doing as we watch all this play out?
Speaker 1: So let's jump right into this. It's not wasting time.
Speaker 1: We saw a buy the rumor, sell the news event.
Speaker 1: So what does that mean? A lot of times people
Speaker 1: are trying to front run the market. So when they
Speaker 1: hear something a rumor like there could be a merger,
Speaker 1: there could acquisition. We hear this company is going to
Speaker 1: mister earnings report, they're going to exceed their earning reports.
Speaker 1: We hear a rumor, then people will start to move
Speaker 1: into that position. And what they'll hope is that if
Speaker 1: I get this rumor right, then I can get a
Speaker 1: big payoff, and then I'll sell on the news. So
Speaker 1: I hear that we're gonna exceed expectations, I'm gonna start
Speaker 1: loading into the position, and as soon as the earnings
Speaker 1: report comes out, I'll sell. When the news drops, I sell.
Speaker 1: That's what that means. And so a lot of people
Speaker 1: were talking about this Bitcoin ETF and spin talk basically
Speaker 1: all we've heard about in the bitcoin space for a
Speaker 1: long time, and how all of this massive amount of
Speaker 1: buying that would be unlocked because of the ETF opening
Speaker 1: up would unleash a massive boom, a giant candle. Some
Speaker 1: people call it a god candle. We'd see bitcoin go
Speaker 1: to the moon, if you will. When that happened, and
Speaker 1: I put out a video December fifth saying warning, warning
Speaker 1: the Bitcoin ETF. Warning. I think it's to buy the rumor,
Speaker 1: sell the news event. And the reason why I put
Speaker 1: that out was to let people know that don't get
Speaker 1: discouraged if you see it drop in price all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, don't think it's a don't sell out. As
Speaker 1: a matter of fact, use that as a buying opportunity,
Speaker 1: and that's exactly what happened. We saw the buyer the
Speaker 1: room or sell the news event. It's been that way
Speaker 1: for the last couple of weeks, and now things seem
Speaker 1: to be taking off again. So are we in a
Speaker 1: fake out or are we at the start of a
Speaker 1: new boom. Let's dig into that, but before we do,
Speaker 1: let's go back to why I thought it was going
Speaker 1: to be a buyer the rum or, sell the news event.
Speaker 1: All right, So what happens is bitcoin is considered a commodity.
Speaker 1: A commodity would be like oil would be, like uranium
Speaker 1: would be, like gold would be like wheat. A commodity
Speaker 1: is a lot different than a stock or an equity.
Speaker 1: So a lot of times you might hear people say, well,
Speaker 1: I don't know how to value bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't have
Speaker 1: any revenues, doesn't have any earnings, right, Okay, so they're
Speaker 1: thinking of it like an equity, like a stock. That's
Speaker 1: when I'm evaluating a company. I'm looking at their earnings reports,
Speaker 1: I'm looking at their balance sheets, I'm looking at their
Speaker 1: financial statements, which some economist or analysts would say that
Speaker 1: they have like intrinsic value. There's value because they're producing value.
Speaker 1: I still think that's a little bit far fetched. I
Speaker 1: believe all value is subjective. And so even though yes,
Speaker 1: they have a product, some intellectual property, yes they have profits, revenue,
Speaker 1: et cetera, the stock trades at a multiple of the earnings,
Speaker 1: and the multiple is still subjective. So even though there
Speaker 1: is intrinsic value because there is stuff there, the multiple
Speaker 1: that trades that is still subjective. Commodities, on the other hand,
Speaker 1: have none of that. It's why warm Buffet doesn't like it.
Speaker 1: He's like, I don't buy gold because gold doesn't do anything,
Speaker 1: doesn't it doesn't. He likes seize candy, he likes Coca cola.
Speaker 1: He likes businesses that run very efficiently and produce lots
Speaker 1: of revenue, which is great, so do I. But he
Speaker 1: doesn't like commodity so they don't do anything. That's why
Speaker 1: he doesn't buy gold. So gold oil right by themselves,
Speaker 1: they don't really do anything. Now, if you want to
Speaker 1: understand the price movement of commodities, you have to understand
Speaker 1: supply and demand. Very simple. Understand equities and stocks difficult
Speaker 1: understand commodities. Very simple. Supply and demand. Now all of
Speaker 1: the trillions of reasons that would go into supply and
Speaker 1: demand can get pretty pretty difficult. So let's just take
Speaker 1: oil for example. Do you think we use more oil
Speaker 1: or less oil in the future. Will there be more
Speaker 1: demand for oil in the future, And do you think
Speaker 1: we'll have more supply or less supply in the future. Right,
Speaker 1: supply and demand. So let's just think about it. On
Speaker 1: the demand side, what would cause more demand, Well, more
Speaker 1: people in the world, more people buying more things, more shipping,
Speaker 1: more airplanes, more cars, more demand. I mean, we're not
Speaker 1: going to just die. Well, but if we have a
Speaker 1: lot of cars go over to batteries, EV vehicles, that
Speaker 1: could cut into some oil. Okay, but most of the
Speaker 1: oil isn't actually used for cars. It's actually used for shipping.
Speaker 1: There's no replacement for that. But if we go into
Speaker 1: a global recession and people don't order as much stuff,
Speaker 1: then there's not as much shipping car. So you can
Speaker 1: understand there's intricacies as to what the supply demand metric
Speaker 1: would be. But if I zoom out, I think in
Speaker 1: the future we use more oil than less. On the
Speaker 1: supply side, we'll we have more oil or less Well,
Speaker 1: the world operate on a theory called peak energy. For
Speaker 1: a long time, the thought the world would run out
Speaker 1: of oil. In two thousand and eight, that was proven
Speaker 1: wrong because we have technology. Technology changes those things, and
Speaker 1: so now we have more oil. However, the sort of
Speaker 1: existing globalist regime that we have today is very antagonistic
Speaker 1: to oil. So the Biden administration is trying to shut
Speaker 1: down oil. All through Europe to trying to shut down oil,
Speaker 1: so maybe they could crunch the supply more than the demand,
Speaker 1: and so I'm pretty bullish on the price of oil. However,
Speaker 1: when you look back since nineteen seventy one, oil is
Speaker 1: more or less traded in about a sixty sixty to
Speaker 1: eighty dollars range, spikes above and below that, so we
Speaker 1: can apply it to the gold. But back to the point,
Speaker 1: we're looking at bitcoin. So if bitcoin is a commodity,
Speaker 1: I'm also looking at the supply demand metrics of that.
Speaker 1: So why let's look at the supply side first, Well,
Speaker 1: with gold or with oil, if the price of gold
Speaker 1: or oil went three times, five times, ten times higher,
Speaker 1: more people, more resources would go towards getting more oil
Speaker 1: and gold out of the ground. So we say high
Speaker 1: prices are the cure for high prices. If the price
Speaker 1: of gold or oil spiked, more supply would come to
Speaker 1: the market, which would bring the price back down high prices.
Speaker 1: The cure of your hig prices. Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin
Speaker 1: has a fixed supply cap, so you can't just go
Speaker 1: get more gold or oil out of the ground. So
Speaker 1: there is a fixed supply. So in the supply demand metric,
Speaker 1: we know that supply is capped. So will there be
Speaker 1: more supply in the future. No, there won't. So now
Speaker 1: we can only look at the demand side. So it
Speaker 1: makes actually much easier than it would be for another commodity.
Speaker 1: So now we look at the demand side of things,
Speaker 1: and we'd ask ourselves whether it be more demand or
Speaker 1: less demand in the future. And some of you might
Speaker 1: be listening to one, why would there ever be demand?
Speaker 1: All it is is some speculative tulip mania. There's no
Speaker 1: real demand, Okay, but that's totally not true. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of utility for bitcoin, okay, Like what, Well, for one,
Speaker 1: it's a way that I can store my wealth in
Speaker 1: a way that can't be debased. You see, if I
Speaker 1: hold my money in dollars or US treasuries or bonds,
Speaker 1: they print more of those things which erodes, which debases
Speaker 1: or steals my value through inflation. If I hold it
Speaker 1: in gold or I hold it in oil, there's other
Speaker 1: risks that could happen. So for example, they increase the
Speaker 1: supply of gold, they increase the supply of oil, or
Speaker 1: the government seizes my goal. Right, So there's all types
Speaker 1: of things, and so it gives me a way to
Speaker 1: store value in a way that's not being debased, not
Speaker 1: being inflated away. That's number one. So do I think
Speaker 1: there's more demand for that in the future or less? Well,
Speaker 1: do you think governments print more money in the future
Speaker 1: or less? The answer is more money than you need
Speaker 1: a way, so there'll be more demand for it. Another
Speaker 1: problem that we have today is censorship, and so governments
Speaker 1: around the world want to control your money capital controls.
Speaker 1: They want to keep your money locked in the country
Speaker 1: and let you know, you prove what you can do
Speaker 1: with that money. In a previous segment, I was talking
Speaker 1: about what's going on over in Ukraine right now in
Speaker 1: this new DA app and basically all your money and
Speaker 1: really your life is in this app. And now if
Speaker 1: you don't respond to the draft, they can just shut
Speaker 1: off all your money. Okay, and that happens in North Korea.
Speaker 1: It happens in Lebanon, they shut the banks down, it
Speaker 1: happens in China, you can't get your money out of
Speaker 1: the country. It happens in all these countries. Authoritarian nations
Speaker 1: and nations going bankrupt always try to control the capital.
Speaker 1: Do you think there's more of that in the future
Speaker 1: or less? So if there's more of that, then I
Speaker 1: need a way to protect myself. So I need something
Speaker 1: that's censorship resistant, so I can send a peer to
Speaker 1: peer without having to go through a bank or an intermediary.
Speaker 1: So I think there's more demand for that in the future,
Speaker 1: not less, all right, So that kind of sets that up.
Speaker 1: Now let's go back to the buy the rumor sell
Speaker 1: the news event. Now, what we were expecting is that
Speaker 1: these ETFs would come on board and lots more people
Speaker 1: would be able to buy bitcoin that weren't able to
Speaker 1: buy it before. It would increase the demand for the asset. However,
Speaker 1: the reason why I warned that there was probably going
Speaker 1: to be a buy the room or sell the news
Speaker 1: event is because what most people expected is that as
Speaker 1: soon as the ETFs went live, a lot of money
Speaker 1: would go into these Bitcoin ETFs, which it did. As
Speaker 1: a matter of fact, Bitcoin become the second largest ETF
Speaker 1: in the world with only I think five days of trading,
Speaker 1: so a lot of money did go in. But what
Speaker 1: most people had wrong is they thought that as soon
Speaker 1: as the money went in, than the ETF fund would
Speaker 1: go buy the bitcoin in the market and that would
Speaker 1: push the demand side up. We should then push the
Speaker 1: price up. But that's not what happened. And in that
Speaker 1: video I explained the reason why it wouldn't happen, and
Speaker 1: understand that is the key to understanding how we move
Speaker 1: forward from here. I want to break that down for
Speaker 1: you so you can know exactly what to expect as
Speaker 1: we move forward with the price of bitcoin and if
Speaker 1: you should buy now or should you wait. If you're
Speaker 1: just tune in listening to the Mark Mass Show, we're
Speaker 1: talking about buy the rumor, sell the news and what
Speaker 1: comes next. You don't want to miss what comes next,
Speaker 1: so don't go away. I'll be right back, all right,
Speaker 1: welcome back. If you just tune in, you listening to
Speaker 1: the Mark Mass Show, we're talking about the Bitcoin ETF,
Speaker 1: buy the rumor and sell the news event. What happened? Okay,
Speaker 1: So as I was explaining before the break, the reason
Speaker 1: why I thought I was going to be buy the
Speaker 1: room or sell the news event, and I was correct,
Speaker 1: is because most people thought that as soon as the
Speaker 1: ETFs open and people have started putting funds into there
Speaker 1: to buy a bitcoin, they would go buy it on
Speaker 1: the market, which would cause the supply demand imbalance and
Speaker 1: push the price up. But as I explained, that's not
Speaker 1: actually the way it works. You see, most of these
Speaker 1: ETFs have already bought the bitcoin. The bitcoin has been
Speaker 1: sitting in these seed accounts, or these these buffer accounts,
Speaker 1: if you will, and as soon as the orders come in,
Speaker 1: they'll just pull it from their other accounts, not from
Speaker 1: what's on the market. You see what they had in
Speaker 1: these tea accounts, and the buffer count had already been
Speaker 1: taken off the market for some time. So over the
Speaker 1: last let's say, six nine months, as we've watched the
Speaker 1: price of bitcoin go from twenty five thousand, thirty thirty five,
Speaker 1: et cetera, up, it's because all this demand, these ETFs
Speaker 1: were buying all this bitcoin, putting in these seed accounts,
Speaker 1: as well as people like you and I were trying
Speaker 1: to front run by the rumor sell the news event,
Speaker 1: and so what I've thought would happen, and what did
Speaker 1: happen is that everyone thought that this money would go
Speaker 1: to the ets that did, but they didn't go buy
Speaker 1: the bitcoin off the market. Instead they just moved it
Speaker 1: over from the buffer account. So that's the way it works.
Speaker 1: The ETFs cannot be buying and selling in the open
Speaker 1: market on a regular daily basis. The amount of buying
Speaker 1: and selling is too much for the amount of liquidity
Speaker 1: in the bitcoin market, so they drive the price up
Speaker 1: and down. So they have to use these buffer seed
Speaker 1: accounts sort of to trade in the market, to know
Speaker 1: when to refill and so forth, and then the ETFs
Speaker 1: buy and sell directly out of that account. And so
Speaker 1: what I warned is that everyone was expecting this. A
Speaker 1: lot of people were trying to front run this, and
Speaker 1: so as soon as the news broke the ETFs opened,
Speaker 1: everyone would sell. And that's exactly what happened. We saw
Speaker 1: the price of bitcoin dump and sell off. And what
Speaker 1: I warned everyone, as they said this is probably gonna happen,
Speaker 1: don't get fooled into selling. So a lot of people
Speaker 1: were like, this is it. It's going to thirty five
Speaker 1: thousand twenty five thousand, twenty thousand, I'm out, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: sell the top. I said, don't do that, because it's
Speaker 1: gonna be a small dip and you're gonna get You're
Speaker 1: gonna get faked out, and then the price will go
Speaker 1: back up. And that's exactly what we're seeing. The price
Speaker 1: has gone back up. As a matter of fact. Let
Speaker 1: me just pull up my chart here. We can see
Speaker 1: that when the ETF got announced, the price dropped twenty percent,
Speaker 1: and since then, on January twenty third, it's now up
Speaker 1: sixteen percent, so it's almost back to where it was
Speaker 1: during that time. But let's take a look at what's
Speaker 1: happened in the ETF since then so you can understand
Speaker 1: where we're going in the future. All right, So let's
Speaker 1: look at a couple of things here. What are some
Speaker 1: of the main points. So first of all, part of
Speaker 1: the reason why we also saw the price sell off
Speaker 1: is because there was no Bitcoin ETF, but there was
Speaker 1: something else called the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, and the Greyscale
Speaker 1: Bitcoin Trust had been holding a ton of bitcoin for
Speaker 1: a long time and they got converted over into an
Speaker 1: ETF when all the other ETFs went live. But what
Speaker 1: happened is a lot of investors had their bitcoin locked
Speaker 1: up in this trust for a long time, and the
Speaker 1: trust has very exorbitant fees, and so as soon as
Speaker 1: it got opened up where they could get their bitcoin
Speaker 1: out and they had another choice to go into another
Speaker 1: ETF that had much lower fees, of course they wanted
Speaker 1: to do that. And so what happened is as much
Speaker 1: bitcoin was being purchased, a lot of it was being
Speaker 1: offset by the selling that was going on because of
Speaker 1: the GBTC outflows at the same time. Now I talked
Speaker 1: about the GBDZ price of bitcoin, it was traded at,
Speaker 1: you know, a thirty five or forty percent discount to
Speaker 1: the NAB to the net asset value. So if you
Speaker 1: bought in at that point, you did really well. Not
Speaker 1: only did you get the appreciation on bitcoin, but you
Speaker 1: got the extra thirty five to forty percent as well.
Speaker 1: But what happened is, as soon as like I said,
Speaker 1: black Rock and all these other ones started buying, gray
Speaker 1: Scale was offsetting that was selling at the same time.
Speaker 1: But it was a massive success. Like I said, within
Speaker 1: I think the first five days of trading, the Bitcoin
Speaker 1: ETF became the second largest ETF in the world. It
Speaker 1: overtook silver for that position. And what we saw some
Speaker 1: of this, some of this on chain data that we
Speaker 1: saw is that there were some increased on chain activity.
Speaker 1: So the one beauty of bitcoin is that the network
Speaker 1: is open source, meaning we can see it all. It's
Speaker 1: an it's not private because we can see it, but
Speaker 1: it's anonymous. We don't know who it belongs to. And
Speaker 1: the ability or i should say the transparency, the ability
Speaker 1: to see through. The transparency that gives us the ability
Speaker 1: to see through it allows us to get data on
Speaker 1: assets that we've never had before, which is part of
Speaker 1: the reason why I think bitcoin's somewhat resistant to sort
Speaker 1: of this manipulation and capture. This's happened in the gold
Speaker 1: industry with the gold ETFs because gold we don't have
Speaker 1: that transparency. We can't see that, but with bitcoin we can.
Speaker 1: But we could see is as soon as the ETF
Speaker 1: opened up, we could see coins, bitcoins that hadn't been
Speaker 1: moved in a long time started to move, and so
Speaker 1: we saw coins starting to sell. Into that event that
Speaker 1: caused that liquidity, a lot of old supply started entering
Speaker 1: the market. Now to sort of break this down and
Speaker 1: put this into a little bit of into comparison to
Speaker 1: show you how much buying there was. Though, like I said,
Speaker 1: a lot of people thought that it was sort of
Speaker 1: a flop, and they said they thought it was a
Speaker 1: flop because it didn't bring the price of bitcoin up
Speaker 1: as high as a lot of people thought it was.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, it went down a little bit.
Speaker 1: But as I explained why that happened. But to show
Speaker 1: you just a little bit of how big it went up,
Speaker 1: we can see that micro strategy. Michael Saylor's company have
Speaker 1: been the biggest holder of bitcoin. I think they have
Speaker 1: of one hundred and eighty thousand bitcoin at this point,
Speaker 1: and with only one month, we saw the bitcoin ETF
Speaker 1: hold almost just as much. I mean in a massive
Speaker 1: amount of buying at one time. We can see the
Speaker 1: ETF flows in dollar terms were total spot bitcoin. We
Speaker 1: can see that, yeah, billions of dollars. We saw nine
Speaker 1: thousand bitcoin per day were being added. Now back to
Speaker 1: supply and demand. Just like oil is brought from the ground,
Speaker 1: just like just like gold is mine from the ground,
Speaker 1: you have to get equipment, you have to use energy,
Speaker 1: you have to dig in the ground to get gold out.
Speaker 1: Also with bitcoin mining, you have to get a computer,
Speaker 1: you have to plug it into a network, and you
Speaker 1: have to spend time, effort, and energy in order to
Speaker 1: solve complex problems in order to get bitcoin out of
Speaker 1: the ground. All right, I want to get super deep
Speaker 1: into that. What happens is there's about nine hundred bitcoin
Speaker 1: per day that get unlocked and released into the into
Speaker 1: the world. Now, what happens is the supply of bitcoin
Speaker 1: will is cap there will never be more than twenty
Speaker 1: one million. And what happens is about nine hundred per
Speaker 1: day being released until we get to twenty one million
Speaker 1: and there will be no more, which is over one
Speaker 1: hundred years from now. Every four years, the amount of
Speaker 1: bitcoin being released gets cut in half. It's known as
Speaker 1: the having event. The having event is coming up in
Speaker 1: about two and a half months from now, roughly, and
Speaker 1: at that point, the new supply of bitcoin will get
Speaker 1: cut in half. And right now, there's about nine hundred
Speaker 1: per day being released, and the bitcoin ETFs are buying
Speaker 1: about nine thousand. Supply and demand. If they're buying nine
Speaker 1: thousand but there's only nine hundred, what do you think
Speaker 1: happens to the price? Now, let's go through the having.
Speaker 1: The having will happen sometime early April potentially, we don't
Speaker 1: know exact date based off of the blocks. But let's
Speaker 1: just say that the bitcoin ETF demand stays at nine thousand,
Speaker 1: and the supply goes from nine hundred to half of
Speaker 1: that to four point fifteen. Then what happens in the price?
Speaker 1: What happens when the GBTC Trust runs out of bitcoin
Speaker 1: to sell after all that moves, and then the supply
Speaker 1: gets cut in half. Do you understand the supply demand
Speaker 1: imbalance that can happen? Now at this point, we can
Speaker 1: see that there's ten times more bitcoin being a common
Speaker 1: accumulating than what's being released, but after the having it
Speaker 1: goes to twenty times. It's a big difference. At this point,
Speaker 1: we can see the leading ETFs are Grayscale, Blackrock, and Fidelity.
Speaker 1: They're leading the leading the race with the assets under management.
Speaker 1: Grayscale is still sort of leading it just because they
Speaker 1: had the biggest They had the biggest lead. Looks like
Speaker 1: the I Shares Bitcoin Trust has about one hundred and
Speaker 1: thirty seven billion our total volume six point seven, Fidelity
Speaker 1: five point five, Kathy Woods Arc down at one point eight.
Speaker 1: The rest are all pretty much down below that. If
Speaker 1: you're just tuning in listening to the Mark mass Show,
Speaker 1: talking about what happened with the bitcoin ETFs, why was
Speaker 1: the buyer, the rumor sell of the news event and
Speaker 1: what comes next? I'll be back with this interesting turn
Speaker 1: of events in a very quick minute. Don't go away
Speaker 1: right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just tune in,
Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Moss Show. We're talking about
Speaker 1: bitcoin ETF and why was the buy, the rumor sell,
Speaker 1: the news event and what comes next? Now, one interesting
Speaker 1: turn of events that I really love to see is innovation.
Speaker 1: I love to see competition. Competition always leads to better products,
Speaker 1: better service, better prices for you and I the consumer.
Speaker 1: One of the things I talked about earlier was how
Speaker 1: Bitcoin's open network, the transparency and the open network. It's
Speaker 1: it's not private because we can see it, but it's anonymous.
Speaker 1: And that anonymous open network allows us to see the
Speaker 1: data of where the bitcoin is, what addresses they're in,
Speaker 1: how long it's been since they've moved, and so forth,
Speaker 1: and that allows us to not have to trust, but
Speaker 1: we can verify. We can verify how many bitcoin are there.
Speaker 1: And I talked about why I think it's gonna be
Speaker 1: much more resistant to manipulation than we've seen with the
Speaker 1: gold ETFs and so forth. And so I said, there's
Speaker 1: about estimated between one to five hundred paper ounces of
Speaker 1: gold for every one physical ounce of gold. If your
Speaker 1: statistical data shows one to five hundred, that means you
Speaker 1: basically don't know anything. That's way too big of a range.
Speaker 1: And it's sort of resistant, not only because of the
Speaker 1: you know, we're not able to see the data of gold,
Speaker 1: but more importantly, you can't just take delivery. You have
Speaker 1: one hundred billion dollars worth of gold, How do you
Speaker 1: even do that? Right? They don't even have it in
Speaker 1: the vaults? How are they even transported to? Where would
Speaker 1: you even store it? Right? But with bitcoin, with a
Speaker 1: push of a button, I can instantly take delivery of
Speaker 1: it and it costs me zero dollars to take delivery
Speaker 1: of it and to secure it and store it. You
Speaker 1: have a billion dollars of gold, you have to build
Speaker 1: an army to protect that a billion dollars. A bitcoin,
Speaker 1: no one even needs to know you have it, and
Speaker 1: it can be cryptographically secured and that way, and so
Speaker 1: I think that also helps push back against what the
Speaker 1: ETF can do or like what's happened with gold ETFs,
Speaker 1: because I can instantly just take delivery of it. Now,
Speaker 1: because of the open anonymous nature of it, we should
Speaker 1: be able to somehow addit the network. And a lot
Speaker 1: of people would say that with these gold ETFs, you
Speaker 1: don't know if the ETF actually has the gold. What
Speaker 1: I suspect is that when push comes to shove a
Speaker 1: lot of people, we know based off the data, a
Speaker 1: lot of people are gonna think they have gold and
Speaker 1: they don't. They're gonna end up either hopefully they're gonna
Speaker 1: get cashed out and at least get some VA currency,
Speaker 1: or they end up with nothing. And so the big
Speaker 1: question is do these ETFs really have the gold they
Speaker 1: say they have? And then with the bitcoin ETFs, do
Speaker 1: the bitcoin ETFs really have the bitcoin they say they have. Well,
Speaker 1: one of the ETFs, bit wise, they decided to publish
Speaker 1: their on chain address to increase transparency. So that basically
Speaker 1: means that they said they shared their public address, so
Speaker 1: anyone can log onto the address and see that the
Speaker 1: amount of bitcoin they have matches what they show in
Speaker 1: the ETF. Now, what I love about this is, like
Speaker 1: I said back to this competition. What I really hope
Speaker 1: is that there will be demand for that and consumers
Speaker 1: will flock to that because of that feature, and then
Speaker 1: we'll start to see more ETF start to adopt that.
Speaker 1: Intrue competitive fashion would be really good. That's one way
Speaker 1: that we can hopefully keep it from getting manipulated like
Speaker 1: we've seen with gold. Now, what is next for bitcoin?
Speaker 1: Let's talk about this. So not only do we have
Speaker 1: supply fixed Chapter twenty one million, not only do we
Speaker 1: have long term demand meaning I think governments print more
Speaker 1: money in the future. I think government can get more
Speaker 1: authoritary in the future. We also have this they have
Speaker 1: being coming down where it cuts the supply. We have
Speaker 1: institutional demand picking up now all these ETFs. Seventy two
Speaker 1: percent of financial advisors said that they would recommend bitcoin
Speaker 1: once there's an ETF approved. We have the Grays Bitcoin
Speaker 1: Trust that's sort of been dwindling and emptying out. Last
Speaker 1: year we had FTX, you know, blow up, and also
Speaker 1: people thought they were buying bitcoin there they weren't, so
Speaker 1: that was also manipulating the price. So a lot of
Speaker 1: that stuff is gone. So what's next for bitcoin. We
Speaker 1: also know that the amount of bitcoin on exchanges is
Speaker 1: lower than at any previous HAVING time. So again we're
Speaker 1: almost at the HAVING, So there's a lot of dynamics
Speaker 1: that are different from this time. So where does the
Speaker 1: price go when we know that typically the price of
Speaker 1: bitcoin peaks eighteen months after the HAVING date. Now we've
Speaker 1: only had four having Well we're on our fourth halving
Speaker 1: cycle right now, so it's not like total empirical evidence.
Speaker 1: It's kind of a small sample size. However, about eighteen
Speaker 1: months after the having we see the peak of bitcoin.
Speaker 1: So where was it last time? It peaked in November
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty one, which was eighteen months after the
Speaker 1: last HAVING, which saw it peak at about seventy thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: It was a lot lower than most people had expected,
Speaker 1: including myself. We thought it should have been somewhere around
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Some of the reasons
Speaker 1: why potentially that it ended up less than that was one.
Speaker 1: We had the whole Tara Luna FTX and GBTC shenanigans
Speaker 1: going down, all that fraud Celsius Tara Luna, all that
Speaker 1: bitcoin was manipulated and stolen. That happened, and at the
Speaker 1: same time we saw the Federal Reserve about face on
Speaker 1: the interest rates and start raising rates, and so maybe
Speaker 1: those couple of things caused it to be a little
Speaker 1: bit lower than it could have been, or maybe should
Speaker 1: have been. We don't really know, but we do know
Speaker 1: that we're coming up into the having and about, like
Speaker 1: I said, eighteen months after we see that price go up.
Speaker 1: We do know that there's less bitcoin on exchanges, and
Speaker 1: the reason why that's important to understand is that the
Speaker 1: bitcoin exchange is what we would consider liquid. So if
Speaker 1: it's sitting on exchange, somebody probably wants to trade with it,
Speaker 1: trade it for another all coin, sell it for cash
Speaker 1: when it goes up, something like that. If it's in
Speaker 1: cold storage, it's not as accessible, so typically it's there
Speaker 1: for a longer term. And what we can see is
Speaker 1: that the exchange balances have just been declining since the
Speaker 1: last HAVING, They've been rapidly declining. I'm looking at chart,
Speaker 1: but I can't show you. So there's that. In addition,
Speaker 1: we also have other factors. So in the last HAVING cycle,
Speaker 1: we had factors working against us. So again we had
Speaker 1: the FTX, we had the Celsius, we had the Terra Luna,
Speaker 1: and we had the Fed pivot and start tightening the
Speaker 1: monetary cycle. Now at the HAVING we're seeing the opposite.
Speaker 1: So now we've cleared out the FTX, we've cleared out
Speaker 1: the TERROR, and we've cleared out the Celsius. We don't
Speaker 1: really have any of that garbage overhanging right now. The
Speaker 1: GBTC is basically cleared out, or it's getting there orderly
Speaker 1: in a way. But instead of the FED pivoting and
Speaker 1: go into a very tight hawkish stance, the Fed's actually
Speaker 1: doing the opposite Right now. Now the FED is moving
Speaker 1: into an easing stance. They're looking to start lowering rates
Speaker 1: here sometime in the next couple of months. We have
Speaker 1: and if to remember, bitcoin is not just a US
Speaker 1: based asset, it's a global asset. We have right now
Speaker 1: China is melting down and the Chinese government is shoving
Speaker 1: money into the economy as fast as they can, and
Speaker 1: the people of China that are getting that money are
Speaker 1: trying to get out of the country as fast they can.
Speaker 1: And one of the best ways they can get money
Speaker 1: out of the country is to buy bitcoin. Sure, they
Speaker 1: can go to Vancouver or Seattle and buy homes. That's
Speaker 1: not easy. Buying bitcoin is very quick and easy. They
Speaker 1: can buy gold, but what do they do with the gold?
Speaker 1: It's still stuck in China. And so we have these
Speaker 1: playing out. We have currencies around the world Argentina, Venezuela, Lebanon, Turkey.
Speaker 1: The currencies are melting down. People have to get out
Speaker 1: of that currency as fasts they can. If they can
Speaker 1: get dollars, then they'll certainly do that. They'll get whatever
Speaker 1: they get their hands on, typically not very much. Other
Speaker 1: than that, they don't have money options, and so bitcoin
Speaker 1: becomes a good option for them. So the entire sort
Speaker 1: of global outlook just looks a lot different at this point.
Speaker 1: Fiscal policies changing. We had Drome power of the Filer
Speaker 1: Reserve was just on sixty minutes a couple of days ago,
Speaker 1: and you talked about how the fiscal situation, this is
Speaker 1: the amount of money the government spending is unsustainable. He
Speaker 1: said that we're borrowing from future generations, which of course
Speaker 1: we've been saying for years. So you take all of
Speaker 1: us into consideration, and then you take into consideration that
Speaker 1: we have the ETF there. I believe that the ETF
Speaker 1: is going to continue to build bigger and bigger and bigger,
Speaker 1: demand more demand over the long term, which will continue
Speaker 1: to buy Remember, like I said, seventy two percent of
Speaker 1: financial advisors said they would recommend to buy bitcoin. But
Speaker 1: that doesn't happen overnight. This is going to take months
Speaker 1: and years to play out. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: we can see when gold was first turned into an ETF,
Speaker 1: it was November of two thousand and four. The price
Speaker 1: of gold didn't peak until June of twenty twelve, so
Speaker 1: from that was eight years from the time the ETF
Speaker 1: was announced. For eight years, gold was on a major
Speaker 1: bull run once those ETFs were approved. So I think
Speaker 1: that's more about what I would expect with bitcoin. I
Speaker 1: expect another strong eight years or potentially even longer. But
Speaker 1: where could the price end up. If you're just tuning in,
Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Moss Show, we're talking about
Speaker 1: the Bitcoin ETF, buy the rumor, sell the news event,
Speaker 1: what's coming up next? And after a very short break,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna tell you where I think the price ends up.
Speaker 1: You don't want to miss it, don't go away. I'll
Speaker 1: be right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just
Speaker 1: tune in, you're listening to the Mark Moss Show, We're
Speaker 1: talking about the bitcoin ETFs and where they buy the
Speaker 1: rumor sell the news event. Well, we know in hindsight
Speaker 1: now they were. I predicted it December fifth. I put
Speaker 1: out a video on my main YouTube channel. Go watch it.
Speaker 1: If you want the full details on what happened, just
Speaker 1: search Mark Moss Bitcoin ETF you'll find it. But the
Speaker 1: question that's probably the top of your mind now is
Speaker 1: where do we go from here? Now this is a
Speaker 1: full disclaimer. I am not your financial advisor. I am
Speaker 1: not telling you to go buy bitcoin. Most of you
Speaker 1: probably shouldn't buy bitcoin. Actually everyone should know on bitcoin,
Speaker 1: but I'm not sure financial advisor. I'm not telling you
Speaker 1: to buy and I'm going to do my best to
Speaker 1: give you some frameworks as to where I think it
Speaker 1: could go. But I'm just gonna let you know in
Speaker 1: advance that my crystal ball is pretty fuzzy. It's not
Speaker 1: super clear here. All right, So we know that bitcoin
Speaker 1: moves on these four year cycles. We know that the
Speaker 1: four year cycle is known as the having event, which
Speaker 1: cuts the supply, and a half happens in less than
Speaker 1: ninety days, about sixty eight days from now, So we
Speaker 1: know that happens. We know that bitcoin peaks typically eighteen
Speaker 1: months after that date, so we have about a year
Speaker 1: and a half in front of us. Then we have
Speaker 1: to look at the supply demand characteristics of that and
Speaker 1: other underlying things. So remember, as I talked about the
Speaker 1: last cycle, it got cut short because the Fed and
Speaker 1: the central banks went into a tightening set. They started
Speaker 1: sucking the money, sucking the liquidity out of the system.
Speaker 1: But that's not here right now. All that's being switched over,
Speaker 1: and now we're starting to ease, We're starting to inject
Speaker 1: liquidity back in the system. The FED said they would
Speaker 1: start lowering rates here in the next couple of months.
Speaker 1: Central banks around the world, in Japan, the ECB, they're
Speaker 1: already easying. We got China shoveling money under their system
Speaker 1: as fast as they possibly can. And at the same time,
Speaker 1: in the US, the fiscal situation, which is the US treasury,
Speaker 1: the government is spending money like a drug con sailor.
Speaker 1: They cannot spend money fast enough, and we didn't see
Speaker 1: that before. So not only do we have this having cycle,
Speaker 1: which is just natural cycle which sort of plays off
Speaker 1: business cycles and credit cycles, but at the same time,
Speaker 1: the entire global liquidity went from it It wasn't a
Speaker 1: tightening cycle before, and now we're moving into an easing cycle,
Speaker 1: so it's very bullish. On the other hand, a lot
Speaker 1: of the problems that we had, the GBTC, the FTX,
Speaker 1: the terror, Luna, the Celsius that really held bitcoin and cryptocre,
Speaker 1: he's in general down. They're all gone, so we don't
Speaker 1: have those big things in front of us, So that's
Speaker 1: bullish as well. Another thing we have, unfortunately, is we
Speaker 1: continue to have a rise of authoritarianism. I am afraid
Speaker 1: that if Europe, it looks like Europe probably first and
Speaker 1: maybe even the US could get somewhat Dracconian with some
Speaker 1: rules and regulations they put on bitcoin, specifically around like
Speaker 1: self ownership, that could potentially slow it down. But I
Speaker 1: think people would still be buying it in the ETFs.
Speaker 1: They're not going to make the ETFs legal. That's there's
Speaker 1: like a zero point zero, zero zero one chance that
Speaker 1: that happens. So I guess people still buy in the ETF,
Speaker 1: so I'm not super worried about that, And then I
Speaker 1: would say that I think the ETF demand is going
Speaker 1: to be massive again. Seventy two percent of advisers said
Speaker 1: they wouldcommend bitcoin once there's an ETF and there is in.
Speaker 1: What I saw today was a report showing how fund managers.
Speaker 1: So most people, a good majority of people don't manage
Speaker 1: their own money, which, by the way, you should manage
Speaker 1: your own money. But most people aren't managing their own money,
Speaker 1: and they're allowing their fund administrators either you know, whoever
Speaker 1: runs their four oh one k's mutual funds, et cetera,
Speaker 1: to build these portfolios and manage them for them. And
Speaker 1: so what we saw today is a lot of these
Speaker 1: funds are starting to already put bitcoin in. So what
Speaker 1: that means is that we're going to see millions and millions,
Speaker 1: tens of millions of people owning bitcoin and not even
Speaker 1: knowing it. I write an investment newsletter called the Tactical
Speaker 1: Asset Report, where I every single month, I write a
Speaker 1: deep research report showing you what I think is happening
Speaker 1: in the market and what I'm buying or selling at
Speaker 1: that time based off of that information, and I get
Speaker 1: people that come in new students every day into the newsletter.
Speaker 1: And the first thing that we want to do is
Speaker 1: we want to look at all the assets that we have,
Speaker 1: and we want to look at what buckets or what
Speaker 1: pillars of our portfolio they're in, so we can build
Speaker 1: the best portfolio. And most people don't even know what
Speaker 1: they have because it's all just like in a four
Speaker 1: oh one K. They don't even know what's in there.
Speaker 1: And so all of those people will be buying bitcoin
Speaker 1: without knowing they're buying bitcoin. Their fund administrators, their advisors
Speaker 1: will be buying it for them. And that's why I
Speaker 1: think these ETFs have this long road in front of it,
Speaker 1: sort of like the gold ETF had an eight year
Speaker 1: run in front of it, I think we see the
Speaker 1: bitcoin ETF have probably a lot longer than an eight
Speaker 1: year run. As a matter of fact, it ran for
Speaker 1: eight years before it pulled back. And of course now
Speaker 1: goal is back above that previous high, and so I
Speaker 1: think the same thing happens with bitcoin. So when you
Speaker 1: add all those things up, I'm pretty bullish on what
Speaker 1: happens over the next eighteen months with the price to bitcoin,
Speaker 1: or about two years at this point. So what does
Speaker 1: the crystal ball have to say about the pricing? Well, again,
Speaker 1: my crystal ball is pretty fuzzy. But if we look
Speaker 1: at some charts and some grafts and look at some
Speaker 1: Fibonacci lines. We look at some analyst experts, we see
Speaker 1: that the predictions are sort of all over the board,
Speaker 1: and they're ranging typically between one hundred thousand to two
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand. That's where a lot of people
Speaker 1: project that we could be at the next having cycle,
Speaker 1: which is about about two years from now. Now, again,
Speaker 1: that's a pretty wide range, and so it's kind of
Speaker 1: statistically irrelevant. It's such a big range. What do I think.
Speaker 1: I think that one hundred should be pretty doable, which
Speaker 1: is more than one hundred percent from here. I think
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty depending on how hard the Federal reserve,
Speaker 1: the central banks of the rest of the world China,
Speaker 1: depending on how hard they go into liquidy. We could
Speaker 1: even overshoot that number, but it's hard to say. But
Speaker 1: I think one hundred is a pretty conservative number, with
Speaker 1: maybe up to one hundred and fifty that's probably where
Speaker 1: i'd put it. I think two fifty is probably a
Speaker 1: little bit aggressive. I think when I look at the data,
Speaker 1: each cycle is lower than the last, so it looks
Speaker 1: like each one is down. Each new high is about
Speaker 1: thirty percent of the previous one, so the first one
Speaker 1: had gone up sixteen thousand percent from the having to
Speaker 1: the peak was up sixteen thousand percent, the second one
Speaker 1: was up five four hundred percent, the third one was
Speaker 1: up twelve hundred percent, and the fourth one was up
Speaker 1: four hundred and forty percent. So if we if we
Speaker 1: continue that trend, it puts it at about one point fifty,
Speaker 1: which is a which is a two hundred percent from
Speaker 1: where we're at right now. I don't see any other
Speaker 1: asset in the world that would go up that much,
Speaker 1: So it's still a pretty good deal. But I don't know,
Speaker 1: what do you think about that? Now? What could go
Speaker 1: wrong with this? Well, there's lots of things that can
Speaker 1: go wrong with it. One of the biggest things that
Speaker 1: we could have would be a massive liquidity event. So
Speaker 1: what does that mean? Like a banking crisis. So we
Speaker 1: have lots of pinpricks that are out there. We know,
Speaker 1: for example, there's about two point nine trillion dollars of
Speaker 1: commercial real estate mortgage backed bonds that could go bankrupt,
Speaker 1: could crash the regional banking system, could crash the entire
Speaker 1: banking system, sort of like a two thousand and eight event.
Speaker 1: Then we saw when the bank when when the banks
Speaker 1: collapsed then we saw the S and P five hundred
Speaker 1: sell off by you know, over fifty percent. If something
Speaker 1: like that happened, then the price of bitcoin is going
Speaker 1: to drop as well. Gold dropped twenty five percent when
Speaker 1: SMP sold off fifty percent. Maybe there's another pandemic. Right
Speaker 1: during the pandemic, we saw the price of bitcoin plunge
Speaker 1: big time as everything did. The S and P five hundred,
Speaker 1: gold and bitcoin they all plunged as well. So if
Speaker 1: we get another big event like two thousand and eight
Speaker 1: like we saw in the pandemic, then certainly we could
Speaker 1: see that completely derail things. That's not my base case.
Speaker 1: What else could happen? Well, I suppose the central banks
Speaker 1: could decide that they would rather fight inflation and not
Speaker 1: prop up their own governments. I don't see that as
Speaker 1: my base case either, because if they don't promp up
Speaker 1: their governments and their governments collapse, then what's the point
Speaker 1: of saving their currency. So I think governments will choose
Speaker 1: inflation over deflation every single day. So that's not my
Speaker 1: base case. So my base case is probably, like I said,
Speaker 1: either some sort of either some big event causing a
Speaker 1: massive liquidity crisis could be you know, a war, escalation,
Speaker 1: nuclear war, heaven forbid. Please, I'm not saying that I
Speaker 1: don't want that, you know, another pandemic, which again I
Speaker 1: certainly do not want, or some other cascade event where
Speaker 1: the banks start to collapse and the government doesn't step
Speaker 1: in to save that, which again is not my base case.
Speaker 1: Any one of those potentials, though, could derail all of this.
Speaker 1: So there is no guarantee. There is no thing that's certain,
Speaker 1: and because of that, I certainly would never put one
Speaker 1: hundred percent of my money into this. Now if I
Speaker 1: had five hundred bucks, I guess yolo right. But if
Speaker 1: you have enough money, you do not want to put
Speaker 1: everything in because the future is not certain. Who knows
Speaker 1: what can happen, So put a reasonable amount, whatever that
Speaker 1: is for you. I think minimum two and a half
Speaker 1: percent of your investable net worth. If you understand it,
Speaker 1: you like it a little bit more, you can go
Speaker 1: up to five percent, ten percent. If you're a psychopath,
Speaker 1: like a lot of bitcoinners, I know, it might be
Speaker 1: thirty forty fifty percent, and I'll let you kind of
Speaker 1: figure out what works best for you. I'd love to
Speaker 1: hear what you have to say, though. Hit me up
Speaker 1: on social media. Let me know that you're listening. You're
Speaker 1: listening to the Mark Moss Show talking about the intersection
Speaker 1: of politics, finance, and technology. Today we're talking about the
Speaker 1: financial system and the technology of bitcoin, and that's what
Speaker 1: I got. Thanks so much for listening. Until next time.