WEBVTT - The Mark Moss Show 2-14-24 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:04.000 Buy the rumor, sell the news. You ever heard that before? 0:00:04.240 --> 0:00:06.320 What does that even mean? Well, it's something I've been 0:00:06.360 --> 0:00:09.760 talking about for about six or eight weeks and it 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:12.640 came true. We saw a buy the rumor, sell the 0:00:12.680 --> 0:00:15.720 news event. And I'm talking about what happened with bitcoin 0:00:16.040 --> 0:00:19.279 and the ETFs that launched open. If you're just tuning in, 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:21.600 you're listening to the Mark Mas Show, we're talking about 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:25.119 the intersection between politics, finance, and technology, and of course 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:28.520 we're talking about the decentralized revolution. And today we're talking 0:00:28.520 --> 0:00:32.360 about what happened with bitcoin, the launch of the ETF 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:35.240 why did the price go down? And what the heck 0:00:35.360 --> 0:00:38.760 is going on now? More importantly, what should we be 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:41.919 watching and doing as we watch all this play out? 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:44.840 So let's jump right into this. It's not wasting time. 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.840 We saw a buy the rumor, sell the news event. 0:00:47.880 --> 0:00:50.520 So what does that mean? A lot of times people 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:53.239 are trying to front run the market. So when they 0:00:53.400 --> 0:00:55.960 hear something a rumor like there could be a merger, 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:58.640 there could acquisition. We hear this company is going to 0:00:58.960 --> 0:01:01.840 mister earnings report, they're going to exceed their earning reports. 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:04.679 We hear a rumor, then people will start to move 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:07.400 into that position. And what they'll hope is that if 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:09.520 I get this rumor right, then I can get a 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:13.039 big payoff, and then I'll sell on the news. So 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.000 I hear that we're gonna exceed expectations, I'm gonna start 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:18.600 loading into the position, and as soon as the earnings 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:21.560 report comes out, I'll sell. When the news drops, I sell. 0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:24.240 That's what that means. And so a lot of people 0:01:24.240 --> 0:01:27.399 were talking about this Bitcoin ETF and spin talk basically 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:29.399 all we've heard about in the bitcoin space for a 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:32.319 long time, and how all of this massive amount of 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:35.080 buying that would be unlocked because of the ETF opening 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:39.720 up would unleash a massive boom, a giant candle. Some 0:01:39.720 --> 0:01:42.040 people call it a god candle. We'd see bitcoin go 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:44.000 to the moon, if you will. When that happened, and 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:47.560 I put out a video December fifth saying warning, warning 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:50.559 the Bitcoin ETF. Warning. I think it's to buy the rumor, 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:52.160 sell the news event. And the reason why I put 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:55.920 that out was to let people know that don't get 0:01:55.920 --> 0:01:58.920 discouraged if you see it drop in price all of 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:00.840 a sudden, don't think it's a don't sell out. As 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:03.240 a matter of fact, use that as a buying opportunity, 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:06.200 and that's exactly what happened. We saw the buyer the 0:02:06.240 --> 0:02:08.359 room or sell the news event. It's been that way 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:10.640 for the last couple of weeks, and now things seem 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:13.400 to be taking off again. So are we in a 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:15.920 fake out or are we at the start of a 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:18.320 new boom. Let's dig into that, but before we do, 0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:20.240 let's go back to why I thought it was going 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:21.880 to be a buyer the rum or, sell the news event. 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:26.640 All right, So what happens is bitcoin is considered a commodity. 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:30.120 A commodity would be like oil would be, like uranium 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:32.520 would be, like gold would be like wheat. A commodity 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:34.600 is a lot different than a stock or an equity. 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:36.600 So a lot of times you might hear people say, well, 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:39.280 I don't know how to value bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't have 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:43.040 any revenues, doesn't have any earnings, right, Okay, so they're 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:45.919 thinking of it like an equity, like a stock. That's 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:49.200 when I'm evaluating a company. I'm looking at their earnings reports, 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:51.000 I'm looking at their balance sheets, I'm looking at their 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:55.320 financial statements, which some economist or analysts would say that 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:59.000 they have like intrinsic value. There's value because they're producing value. 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:01.040 I still think that's a little bit far fetched. I 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:05.280 believe all value is subjective. And so even though yes, 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:08.480 they have a product, some intellectual property, yes they have profits, revenue, 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:13.920 et cetera, the stock trades at a multiple of the earnings, 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:17.280 and the multiple is still subjective. So even though there 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:21.480 is intrinsic value because there is stuff there, the multiple 0:03:21.480 --> 0:03:24.680 that trades that is still subjective. Commodities, on the other hand, 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:26.600 have none of that. It's why warm Buffet doesn't like it. 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:29.120 He's like, I don't buy gold because gold doesn't do anything, 0:03:29.720 --> 0:03:33.160 doesn't it doesn't. He likes seize candy, he likes Coca cola. 0:03:33.400 --> 0:03:36.480 He likes businesses that run very efficiently and produce lots 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:38.760 of revenue, which is great, so do I. But he 0:03:38.760 --> 0:03:40.320 doesn't like commodity so they don't do anything. That's why 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.840 he doesn't buy gold. So gold oil right by themselves, 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:45.720 they don't really do anything. Now, if you want to 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:48.600 understand the price movement of commodities, you have to understand 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:52.440 supply and demand. Very simple. Understand equities and stocks difficult 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:55.720 understand commodities. Very simple. Supply and demand. Now all of 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:57.760 the trillions of reasons that would go into supply and 0:03:57.800 --> 0:04:00.560 demand can get pretty pretty difficult. So let's just take 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:03.760 oil for example. Do you think we use more oil 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:05.640 or less oil in the future. Will there be more 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:08.360 demand for oil in the future, And do you think 0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:12.000 we'll have more supply or less supply in the future. Right, 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:14.320 supply and demand. So let's just think about it. On 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:17.279 the demand side, what would cause more demand, Well, more 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:21.000 people in the world, more people buying more things, more shipping, 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:23.719 more airplanes, more cars, more demand. I mean, we're not 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:26.479 going to just die. Well, but if we have a 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:29.240 lot of cars go over to batteries, EV vehicles, that 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:31.240 could cut into some oil. Okay, but most of the 0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:34.080 oil isn't actually used for cars. It's actually used for shipping. 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:37.039 There's no replacement for that. But if we go into 0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:40.119 a global recession and people don't order as much stuff, 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:41.920 then there's not as much shipping car. So you can 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:44.560 understand there's intricacies as to what the supply demand metric 0:04:44.600 --> 0:04:47.120 would be. But if I zoom out, I think in 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:49.960 the future we use more oil than less. On the 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:52.760 supply side, we'll we have more oil or less Well, 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:54.719 the world operate on a theory called peak energy. For 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:56.160 a long time, the thought the world would run out 0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:58.159 of oil. In two thousand and eight, that was proven 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:02.080 wrong because we have technology. Technology changes those things, and 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:05.919 so now we have more oil. However, the sort of 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:08.840 existing globalist regime that we have today is very antagonistic 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:11.280 to oil. So the Biden administration is trying to shut 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:13.000 down oil. All through Europe to trying to shut down oil, 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:18.040 so maybe they could crunch the supply more than the demand, 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:21.039 and so I'm pretty bullish on the price of oil. However, 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:23.480 when you look back since nineteen seventy one, oil is 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:26.200 more or less traded in about a sixty sixty to 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:30.240 eighty dollars range, spikes above and below that, so we 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:31.960 can apply it to the gold. But back to the point, 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:34.200 we're looking at bitcoin. So if bitcoin is a commodity, 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:36.920 I'm also looking at the supply demand metrics of that. 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:40.760 So why let's look at the supply side first, Well, 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:43.000 with gold or with oil, if the price of gold 0:05:43.080 --> 0:05:46.119 or oil went three times, five times, ten times higher, 0:05:46.680 --> 0:05:49.799 more people, more resources would go towards getting more oil 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:52.360 and gold out of the ground. So we say high 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:54.200 prices are the cure for high prices. If the price 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:57.160 of gold or oil spiked, more supply would come to 0:05:57.200 --> 0:05:59.440 the market, which would bring the price back down high prices. 0:05:59.440 --> 0:06:02.040 The cure of your hig prices. Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:03.880 has a fixed supply cap, so you can't just go 0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:06.360 get more gold or oil out of the ground. So 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:08.839 there is a fixed supply. So in the supply demand metric, 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:11.720 we know that supply is capped. So will there be 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:14.360 more supply in the future. No, there won't. So now 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:15.920 we can only look at the demand side. So it 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:18.719 makes actually much easier than it would be for another commodity. 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:20.360 So now we look at the demand side of things, 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:23.520 and we'd ask ourselves whether it be more demand or 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:26.039 less demand in the future. And some of you might 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:28.119 be listening to one, why would there ever be demand? 0:06:28.279 --> 0:06:31.400 All it is is some speculative tulip mania. There's no 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:35.240 real demand, Okay, but that's totally not true. There's a 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:38.680 lot of utility for bitcoin, okay, Like what, Well, for one, 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:40.880 it's a way that I can store my wealth in 0:06:40.960 --> 0:06:42.880 a way that can't be debased. You see, if I 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:45.920 hold my money in dollars or US treasuries or bonds, 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:49.560 they print more of those things which erodes, which debases 0:06:49.760 --> 0:06:53.200 or steals my value through inflation. If I hold it 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:55.640 in gold or I hold it in oil, there's other 0:06:55.760 --> 0:06:58.360 risks that could happen. So for example, they increase the 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:01.880 supply of gold, they increase the supply of oil, or 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:04.480 the government seizes my goal. Right, So there's all types 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:07.640 of things, and so it gives me a way to 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:10.200 store value in a way that's not being debased, not 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:12.600 being inflated away. That's number one. So do I think 0:07:12.600 --> 0:07:14.320 there's more demand for that in the future or less? Well, 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:16.680 do you think governments print more money in the future 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.600 or less? The answer is more money than you need 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:21.520 a way, so there'll be more demand for it. Another 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:25.080 problem that we have today is censorship, and so governments 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:28.080 around the world want to control your money capital controls. 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:29.880 They want to keep your money locked in the country 0:07:29.960 --> 0:07:32.280 and let you know, you prove what you can do 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:34.200 with that money. In a previous segment, I was talking 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:36.000 about what's going on over in Ukraine right now in 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:39.200 this new DA app and basically all your money and 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:41.400 really your life is in this app. And now if 0:07:41.440 --> 0:07:45.160 you don't respond to the draft, they can just shut 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:48.480 off all your money. Okay, and that happens in North Korea. 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:51.160 It happens in Lebanon, they shut the banks down, it 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:52.920 happens in China, you can't get your money out of 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:56.520 the country. It happens in all these countries. Authoritarian nations 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:59.239 and nations going bankrupt always try to control the capital. 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:02.240 Do you think there's more of that in the future 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:04.840 or less? So if there's more of that, then I 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:06.560 need a way to protect myself. So I need something 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:09.440 that's censorship resistant, so I can send a peer to 0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:12.000 peer without having to go through a bank or an intermediary. 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:14.720 So I think there's more demand for that in the future, 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:17.800 not less, all right, So that kind of sets that up. 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:20.440 Now let's go back to the buy the rumor sell 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.360 the news event. Now, what we were expecting is that 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:26.000 these ETFs would come on board and lots more people 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:27.480 would be able to buy bitcoin that weren't able to 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:30.600 buy it before. It would increase the demand for the asset. However, 0:08:30.760 --> 0:08:33.360 the reason why I warned that there was probably going 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:34.439 to be a buy the room or sell the news 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:37.760 event is because what most people expected is that as 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:41.280 soon as the ETFs went live, a lot of money 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:43.760 would go into these Bitcoin ETFs, which it did. As 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:47.160 a matter of fact, Bitcoin become the second largest ETF 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:49.480 in the world with only I think five days of trading, 0:08:49.800 --> 0:08:52.559 so a lot of money did go in. But what 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:55.440 most people had wrong is they thought that as soon 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:59.040 as the money went in, than the ETF fund would 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:01.360 go buy the bitcoin in the market and that would 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:03.800 push the demand side up. We should then push the 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:07.240 price up. But that's not what happened. And in that 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:10.319 video I explained the reason why it wouldn't happen, and 0:09:10.679 --> 0:09:13.480 understand that is the key to understanding how we move 0:09:13.559 --> 0:09:15.480 forward from here. I want to break that down for 0:09:15.559 --> 0:09:17.480 you so you can know exactly what to expect as 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:19.120 we move forward with the price of bitcoin and if 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:21.240 you should buy now or should you wait. If you're 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:23.360 just tune in listening to the Mark Mass Show, we're 0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:25.880 talking about buy the rumor, sell the news and what 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:28.000 comes next. You don't want to miss what comes next, 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:29.679 so don't go away. I'll be right back, all right, 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:31.120 welcome back. If you just tune in, you listening to 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:34.080 the Mark Mass Show, we're talking about the Bitcoin ETF, 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:37.720 buy the rumor and sell the news event. What happened? Okay, 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:41.400 So as I was explaining before the break, the reason 0:09:41.480 --> 0:09:42.599 why I thought I was going to be buy the 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:44.320 room or sell the news event, and I was correct, 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:46.480 is because most people thought that as soon as the 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:48.840 ETFs open and people have started putting funds into there 0:09:48.880 --> 0:09:50.360 to buy a bitcoin, they would go buy it on 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:53.040 the market, which would cause the supply demand imbalance and 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:55.679 push the price up. But as I explained, that's not 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:57.760 actually the way it works. You see, most of these 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:00.960 ETFs have already bought the bitcoin. The bitcoin has been 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:03.880 sitting in these seed accounts, or these these buffer accounts, 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:07.800 if you will, and as soon as the orders come in, 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:10.679 they'll just pull it from their other accounts, not from 0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:12.559 what's on the market. You see what they had in 0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:14.360 these tea accounts, and the buffer count had already been 0:10:14.400 --> 0:10:16.679 taken off the market for some time. So over the 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:18.800 last let's say, six nine months, as we've watched the 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:21.920 price of bitcoin go from twenty five thousand, thirty thirty five, 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:26.600 et cetera, up, it's because all this demand, these ETFs 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:29.440 were buying all this bitcoin, putting in these seed accounts, 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:31.760 as well as people like you and I were trying 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:34.000 to front run by the rumor sell the news event, 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:36.840 and so what I've thought would happen, and what did 0:10:37.000 --> 0:10:39.959 happen is that everyone thought that this money would go 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:43.160 to the ets that did, but they didn't go buy 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:45.079 the bitcoin off the market. Instead they just moved it 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:46.960 over from the buffer account. So that's the way it works. 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:50.720 The ETFs cannot be buying and selling in the open 0:10:50.760 --> 0:10:53.520 market on a regular daily basis. The amount of buying 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:56.040 and selling is too much for the amount of liquidity 0:10:56.120 --> 0:10:58.120 in the bitcoin market, so they drive the price up 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.240 and down. So they have to use these buffer seed 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:03.319 accounts sort of to trade in the market, to know 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:06.720 when to refill and so forth, and then the ETFs 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:09.280 buy and sell directly out of that account. And so 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:11.679 what I warned is that everyone was expecting this. A 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:13.240 lot of people were trying to front run this, and 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:15.800 so as soon as the news broke the ETFs opened, 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:18.439 everyone would sell. And that's exactly what happened. We saw 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:21.120 the price of bitcoin dump and sell off. And what 0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:23.320 I warned everyone, as they said this is probably gonna happen, 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:26.360 don't get fooled into selling. So a lot of people 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:27.800 were like, this is it. It's going to thirty five 0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:29.880 thousand twenty five thousand, twenty thousand, I'm out, I'm gonna 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:32.280 sell the top. I said, don't do that, because it's 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:34.520 gonna be a small dip and you're gonna get You're 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:37.040 gonna get faked out, and then the price will go 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:39.800 back up. And that's exactly what we're seeing. The price 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:42.760 has gone back up. As a matter of fact. Let 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:44.640 me just pull up my chart here. We can see 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:48.679 that when the ETF got announced, the price dropped twenty percent, 0:11:49.080 --> 0:11:54.240 and since then, on January twenty third, it's now up 0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:56.679 sixteen percent, so it's almost back to where it was 0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:59.400 during that time. But let's take a look at what's 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.319 happened in the ETF since then so you can understand 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:04.840 where we're going in the future. All right, So let's 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:08.280 look at a couple of things here. What are some 0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:10.760 of the main points. So first of all, part of 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.439 the reason why we also saw the price sell off 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:16.599 is because there was no Bitcoin ETF, but there was 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:20.800 something else called the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, and the Greyscale 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:23.400 Bitcoin Trust had been holding a ton of bitcoin for 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:27.040 a long time and they got converted over into an 0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:29.959 ETF when all the other ETFs went live. But what 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:33.240 happened is a lot of investors had their bitcoin locked 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:36.439 up in this trust for a long time, and the 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:40.040 trust has very exorbitant fees, and so as soon as 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.040 it got opened up where they could get their bitcoin 0:12:42.120 --> 0:12:44.960 out and they had another choice to go into another 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:47.600 ETF that had much lower fees, of course they wanted 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:49.880 to do that. And so what happened is as much 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:52.559 bitcoin was being purchased, a lot of it was being 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:56.000 offset by the selling that was going on because of 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:59.920 the GBTC outflows at the same time. Now I talked 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:03.560 about the GBDZ price of bitcoin, it was traded at, 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:06.880 you know, a thirty five or forty percent discount to 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:09.679 the NAB to the net asset value. So if you 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:11.240 bought in at that point, you did really well. Not 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.000 only did you get the appreciation on bitcoin, but you 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:14.839 got the extra thirty five to forty percent as well. 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:17.800 But what happened is, as soon as like I said, 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.800 black Rock and all these other ones started buying, gray 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:24.320 Scale was offsetting that was selling at the same time. 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:26.640 But it was a massive success. Like I said, within 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:28.920 I think the first five days of trading, the Bitcoin 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:31.920 ETF became the second largest ETF in the world. It 0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:35.520 overtook silver for that position. And what we saw some 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:37.160 of this, some of this on chain data that we 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:41.160 saw is that there were some increased on chain activity. 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:43.760 So the one beauty of bitcoin is that the network 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:46.120 is open source, meaning we can see it all. It's 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:48.120 an it's not private because we can see it, but 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:50.319 it's anonymous. We don't know who it belongs to. And 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:53.040 the ability or i should say the transparency, the ability 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:54.920 to see through. The transparency that gives us the ability 0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:56.760 to see through it allows us to get data on 0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:58.839 assets that we've never had before, which is part of 0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:01.720 the reason why I think bitcoin's somewhat resistant to sort 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:04.080 of this manipulation and capture. This's happened in the gold 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:06.679 industry with the gold ETFs because gold we don't have 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:09.280 that transparency. We can't see that, but with bitcoin we can. 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:11.760 But we could see is as soon as the ETF 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:15.360 opened up, we could see coins, bitcoins that hadn't been 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:19.040 moved in a long time started to move, and so 0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:22.800 we saw coins starting to sell. Into that event that 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:26.640 caused that liquidity, a lot of old supply started entering 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:29.400 the market. Now to sort of break this down and 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:32.720 put this into a little bit of into comparison to 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:35.040 show you how much buying there was. Though, like I said, 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:36.680 a lot of people thought that it was sort of 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:38.520 a flop, and they said they thought it was a 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:41.400 flop because it didn't bring the price of bitcoin up 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:42.920 as high as a lot of people thought it was. 0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:44.400 As a matter of fact, it went down a little bit. 0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:47.400 But as I explained why that happened. But to show 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:49.920 you just a little bit of how big it went up, 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:54.000 we can see that micro strategy. Michael Saylor's company have 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:56.080 been the biggest holder of bitcoin. I think they have 0:14:56.200 --> 0:14:59.120 of one hundred and eighty thousand bitcoin at this point, 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:03.960 and with only one month, we saw the bitcoin ETF 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:07.080 hold almost just as much. I mean in a massive 0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:11.200 amount of buying at one time. We can see the 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:19.040 ETF flows in dollar terms were total spot bitcoin. We 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:24.040 can see that, yeah, billions of dollars. We saw nine 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:28.880 thousand bitcoin per day were being added. Now back to 0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:33.360 supply and demand. Just like oil is brought from the ground, 0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:36.440 just like just like gold is mine from the ground, 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:38.280 you have to get equipment, you have to use energy, 0:15:38.320 --> 0:15:40.080 you have to dig in the ground to get gold out. 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:42.440 Also with bitcoin mining, you have to get a computer, 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:43.880 you have to plug it into a network, and you 0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:46.640 have to spend time, effort, and energy in order to 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:50.080 solve complex problems in order to get bitcoin out of 0:15:50.120 --> 0:15:51.960 the ground. All right, I want to get super deep 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:55.920 into that. What happens is there's about nine hundred bitcoin 0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:59.400 per day that get unlocked and released into the into 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:04.160 the world. Now, what happens is the supply of bitcoin 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:06.080 will is cap there will never be more than twenty 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:08.840 one million. And what happens is about nine hundred per 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:11.280 day being released until we get to twenty one million 0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:12.760 and there will be no more, which is over one 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:17.280 hundred years from now. Every four years, the amount of 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:20.880 bitcoin being released gets cut in half. It's known as 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:23.280 the having event. The having event is coming up in 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:26.840 about two and a half months from now, roughly, and 0:16:27.200 --> 0:16:30.320 at that point, the new supply of bitcoin will get 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:32.520 cut in half. And right now, there's about nine hundred 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.880 per day being released, and the bitcoin ETFs are buying 0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:40.880 about nine thousand. Supply and demand. If they're buying nine 0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:44.640 thousand but there's only nine hundred, what do you think 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:48.040 happens to the price? Now, let's go through the having. 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:51.240 The having will happen sometime early April potentially, we don't 0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:55.760 know exact date based off of the blocks. But let's 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:59.160 just say that the bitcoin ETF demand stays at nine thousand, 0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:01.960 and the supply goes from nine hundred to half of 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:06.080 that to four point fifteen. Then what happens in the price? 0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:10.480 What happens when the GBTC Trust runs out of bitcoin 0:17:10.560 --> 0:17:13.439 to sell after all that moves, and then the supply 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:17.080 gets cut in half. Do you understand the supply demand 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:19.600 imbalance that can happen? Now at this point, we can 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:22.840 see that there's ten times more bitcoin being a common 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:26.399 accumulating than what's being released, but after the having it 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:30.400 goes to twenty times. It's a big difference. At this point, 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:35.199 we can see the leading ETFs are Grayscale, Blackrock, and Fidelity. 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:38.280 They're leading the leading the race with the assets under management. 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.439 Grayscale is still sort of leading it just because they 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:45.920 had the biggest They had the biggest lead. Looks like 0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:48.080 the I Shares Bitcoin Trust has about one hundred and 0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:54.200 thirty seven billion our total volume six point seven, Fidelity 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:58.720 five point five, Kathy Woods Arc down at one point eight. 0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:03.199 The rest are all pretty much down below that. If 0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:04.840 you're just tuning in listening to the Mark mass Show, 0:18:04.880 --> 0:18:07.879 talking about what happened with the bitcoin ETFs, why was 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:09.399 the buyer, the rumor sell of the news event and 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:12.160 what comes next? I'll be back with this interesting turn 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:14.200 of events in a very quick minute. Don't go away 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:16.040 right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just tune in, 0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:18.120 you're listening to the Mark Moss Show. We're talking about 0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:21.440 bitcoin ETF and why was the buy, the rumor sell, 0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:26.240 the news event and what comes next? Now, one interesting 0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:29.200 turn of events that I really love to see is innovation. 0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:31.959 I love to see competition. Competition always leads to better products, 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:34.280 better service, better prices for you and I the consumer. 0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.639 One of the things I talked about earlier was how 0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:41.400 Bitcoin's open network, the transparency and the open network. It's 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:43.760 it's not private because we can see it, but it's anonymous. 0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:46.680 And that anonymous open network allows us to see the 0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.399 data of where the bitcoin is, what addresses they're in, 0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:51.720 how long it's been since they've moved, and so forth, 0:18:52.280 --> 0:18:54.080 and that allows us to not have to trust, but 0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:57.160 we can verify. We can verify how many bitcoin are there. 0:18:57.840 --> 0:18:59.720 And I talked about why I think it's gonna be 0:18:59.760 --> 0:19:02.560