1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Buy the rumor, sell the news. You ever heard that before? 2 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: What does that even mean? Well, it's something I've been 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: talking about for about six or eight weeks and it 4 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: came true. We saw a buy the rumor, sell the 5 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 1: news event. And I'm talking about what happened with bitcoin 6 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:19,279 Speaker 1: and the ETFs that launched open. If you're just tuning in, 7 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:21,600 Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Mas Show, we're talking about 8 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:25,119 Speaker 1: the intersection between politics, finance, and technology, and of course 9 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 1: we're talking about the decentralized revolution. And today we're talking 10 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: about what happened with bitcoin, the launch of the ETF 11 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,240 Speaker 1: why did the price go down? And what the heck 12 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: is going on now? More importantly, what should we be 13 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,919 Speaker 1: watching and doing as we watch all this play out? 14 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 1: So let's jump right into this. It's not wasting time. 15 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 1: We saw a buy the rumor, sell the news event. 16 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:50,520 Speaker 1: So what does that mean? A lot of times people 17 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 1: are trying to front run the market. So when they 18 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: hear something a rumor like there could be a merger, 19 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: there could acquisition. We hear this company is going to 20 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 1: mister earnings report, they're going to exceed their earning reports. 21 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 1: We hear a rumor, then people will start to move 22 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,400 Speaker 1: into that position. And what they'll hope is that if 23 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 1: I get this rumor right, then I can get a 24 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 1: big payoff, and then I'll sell on the news. So 25 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 1: I hear that we're gonna exceed expectations, I'm gonna start 26 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: loading into the position, and as soon as the earnings 27 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: report comes out, I'll sell. When the news drops, I sell. 28 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: That's what that means. And so a lot of people 29 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:27,399 Speaker 1: were talking about this Bitcoin ETF and spin talk basically 30 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 1: all we've heard about in the bitcoin space for a 31 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 1: long time, and how all of this massive amount of 32 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: buying that would be unlocked because of the ETF opening 33 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 1: up would unleash a massive boom, a giant candle. Some 34 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,040 Speaker 1: people call it a god candle. We'd see bitcoin go 35 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: to the moon, if you will. When that happened, and 36 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: I put out a video December fifth saying warning, warning 37 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,559 Speaker 1: the Bitcoin ETF. Warning. I think it's to buy the rumor, 38 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 1: sell the news event. And the reason why I put 39 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: that out was to let people know that don't get 40 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: discouraged if you see it drop in price all of 41 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: a sudden, don't think it's a don't sell out. As 42 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: a matter of fact, use that as a buying opportunity, 43 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: and that's exactly what happened. We saw the buyer the 44 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:08,359 Speaker 1: room or sell the news event. It's been that way 45 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 1: for the last couple of weeks, and now things seem 46 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 1: to be taking off again. So are we in a 47 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,920 Speaker 1: fake out or are we at the start of a 48 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 1: new boom. Let's dig into that, but before we do, 49 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 1: let's go back to why I thought it was going 50 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 1: to be a buyer the rum or, sell the news event. 51 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 1: All right, So what happens is bitcoin is considered a commodity. 52 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 1: A commodity would be like oil would be, like uranium 53 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 1: would be, like gold would be like wheat. A commodity 54 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: is a lot different than a stock or an equity. 55 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: So a lot of times you might hear people say, well, 56 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 1: I don't know how to value bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't have 57 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: any revenues, doesn't have any earnings, right, Okay, so they're 58 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 1: thinking of it like an equity, like a stock. That's 59 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: when I'm evaluating a company. I'm looking at their earnings reports, 60 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 1: I'm looking at their balance sheets, I'm looking at their 61 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: financial statements, which some economist or analysts would say that 62 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 1: they have like intrinsic value. There's value because they're producing value. 63 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: I still think that's a little bit far fetched. I 64 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: believe all value is subjective. And so even though yes, 65 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: they have a product, some intellectual property, yes they have profits, revenue, 66 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:13,920 Speaker 1: et cetera, the stock trades at a multiple of the earnings, 67 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 1: and the multiple is still subjective. So even though there 68 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: is intrinsic value because there is stuff there, the multiple 69 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: that trades that is still subjective. Commodities, on the other hand, 70 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 1: have none of that. It's why warm Buffet doesn't like it. 71 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 1: He's like, I don't buy gold because gold doesn't do anything, 72 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: doesn't it doesn't. He likes seize candy, he likes Coca cola. 73 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 1: He likes businesses that run very efficiently and produce lots 74 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 1: of revenue, which is great, so do I. But he 75 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: doesn't like commodity so they don't do anything. That's why 76 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: he doesn't buy gold. So gold oil right by themselves, 77 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: they don't really do anything. Now, if you want to 78 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: understand the price movement of commodities, you have to understand 79 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: supply and demand. Very simple. Understand equities and stocks difficult 80 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 1: understand commodities. Very simple. Supply and demand. Now all of 81 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: the trillions of reasons that would go into supply and 82 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: demand can get pretty pretty difficult. So let's just take 83 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: oil for example. Do you think we use more oil 84 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 1: or less oil in the future. Will there be more 85 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 1: demand for oil in the future, And do you think 86 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: we'll have more supply or less supply in the future. Right, 87 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: supply and demand. So let's just think about it. On 88 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 1: the demand side, what would cause more demand, Well, more 89 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: people in the world, more people buying more things, more shipping, 90 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: more airplanes, more cars, more demand. I mean, we're not 91 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,479 Speaker 1: going to just die. Well, but if we have a 92 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 1: lot of cars go over to batteries, EV vehicles, that 93 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: could cut into some oil. Okay, but most of the 94 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 1: oil isn't actually used for cars. It's actually used for shipping. 95 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 1: There's no replacement for that. But if we go into 96 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:40,119 Speaker 1: a global recession and people don't order as much stuff, 97 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: then there's not as much shipping car. So you can 98 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: understand there's intricacies as to what the supply demand metric 99 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: would be. But if I zoom out, I think in 100 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 1: the future we use more oil than less. On the 101 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 1: supply side, we'll we have more oil or less Well, 102 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:54,719 Speaker 1: the world operate on a theory called peak energy. For 103 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 1: a long time, the thought the world would run out 104 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 1: of oil. In two thousand and eight, that was proven 105 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 1: wrong because we have technology. Technology changes those things, and 106 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,919 Speaker 1: so now we have more oil. However, the sort of 107 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,840 Speaker 1: existing globalist regime that we have today is very antagonistic 108 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 1: to oil. So the Biden administration is trying to shut 109 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: down oil. All through Europe to trying to shut down oil, 110 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 1: so maybe they could crunch the supply more than the demand, 111 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,039 Speaker 1: and so I'm pretty bullish on the price of oil. However, 112 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,480 Speaker 1: when you look back since nineteen seventy one, oil is 113 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: more or less traded in about a sixty sixty to 114 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: eighty dollars range, spikes above and below that, so we 115 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: can apply it to the gold. But back to the point, 116 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: we're looking at bitcoin. So if bitcoin is a commodity, 117 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 1: I'm also looking at the supply demand metrics of that. 118 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 1: So why let's look at the supply side first, Well, 119 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: with gold or with oil, if the price of gold 120 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:46,119 Speaker 1: or oil went three times, five times, ten times higher, 121 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:49,799 Speaker 1: more people, more resources would go towards getting more oil 122 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: and gold out of the ground. So we say high 123 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: prices are the cure for high prices. If the price 124 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 1: of gold or oil spiked, more supply would come to 125 00:05:57,200 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: the market, which would bring the price back down high prices. 126 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 1: The cure of your hig prices. Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin 127 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: has a fixed supply cap, so you can't just go 128 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: get more gold or oil out of the ground. So 129 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:08,839 Speaker 1: there is a fixed supply. So in the supply demand metric, 130 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:11,720 Speaker 1: we know that supply is capped. So will there be 131 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 1: more supply in the future. No, there won't. So now 132 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 1: we can only look at the demand side. So it 133 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: makes actually much easier than it would be for another commodity. 134 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 1: So now we look at the demand side of things, 135 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 1: and we'd ask ourselves whether it be more demand or 136 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 1: less demand in the future. And some of you might 137 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:28,119 Speaker 1: be listening to one, why would there ever be demand? 138 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: All it is is some speculative tulip mania. There's no 139 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: real demand, Okay, but that's totally not true. There's a 140 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: lot of utility for bitcoin, okay, Like what, Well, for one, 141 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: it's a way that I can store my wealth in 142 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 1: a way that can't be debased. You see, if I 143 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: hold my money in dollars or US treasuries or bonds, 144 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 1: they print more of those things which erodes, which debases 145 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: or steals my value through inflation. If I hold it 146 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 1: in gold or I hold it in oil, there's other 147 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 1: risks that could happen. So for example, they increase the 148 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 1: supply of gold, they increase the supply of oil, or 149 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: the government seizes my goal. Right, So there's all types 150 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 1: of things, and so it gives me a way to 151 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: store value in a way that's not being debased, not 152 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 1: being inflated away. That's number one. So do I think 153 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: there's more demand for that in the future or less? Well, 154 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 1: do you think governments print more money in the future 155 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 1: or less? The answer is more money than you need 156 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: a way, so there'll be more demand for it. Another 157 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 1: problem that we have today is censorship, and so governments 158 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 1: around the world want to control your money capital controls. 159 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 1: They want to keep your money locked in the country 160 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: and let you know, you prove what you can do 161 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: with that money. In a previous segment, I was talking 162 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 1: about what's going on over in Ukraine right now in 163 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: this new DA app and basically all your money and 164 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: really your life is in this app. And now if 165 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: you don't respond to the draft, they can just shut 166 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: off all your money. Okay, and that happens in North Korea. 167 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: It happens in Lebanon, they shut the banks down, it 168 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 1: happens in China, you can't get your money out of 169 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 1: the country. It happens in all these countries. Authoritarian nations 170 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:59,239 Speaker 1: and nations going bankrupt always try to control the capital. 171 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 1: Do you think there's more of that in the future 172 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: or less? So if there's more of that, then I 173 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 1: need a way to protect myself. So I need something 174 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: that's censorship resistant, so I can send a peer to 175 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: peer without having to go through a bank or an intermediary. 176 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: So I think there's more demand for that in the future, 177 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 1: not less, all right, So that kind of sets that up. 178 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: Now let's go back to the buy the rumor sell 179 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: the news event. Now, what we were expecting is that 180 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 1: these ETFs would come on board and lots more people 181 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 1: would be able to buy bitcoin that weren't able to 182 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 1: buy it before. It would increase the demand for the asset. However, 183 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: the reason why I warned that there was probably going 184 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:34,439 Speaker 1: to be a buy the room or sell the news 185 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 1: event is because what most people expected is that as 186 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: soon as the ETFs went live, a lot of money 187 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: would go into these Bitcoin ETFs, which it did. As 188 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 1: a matter of fact, Bitcoin become the second largest ETF 189 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 1: in the world with only I think five days of trading, 190 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,559 Speaker 1: so a lot of money did go in. But what 191 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: most people had wrong is they thought that as soon 192 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 1: as the money went in, than the ETF fund would 193 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 1: go buy the bitcoin in the market and that would 194 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: push the demand side up. We should then push the 195 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: price up. But that's not what happened. And in that 196 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:10,319 Speaker 1: video I explained the reason why it wouldn't happen, and 197 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 1: understand that is the key to understanding how we move 198 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: forward from here. I want to break that down for 199 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: you so you can know exactly what to expect as 200 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: we move forward with the price of bitcoin and if 201 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 1: you should buy now or should you wait. If you're 202 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 1: just tune in listening to the Mark Mass Show, we're 203 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: talking about buy the rumor, sell the news and what 204 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: comes next. You don't want to miss what comes next, 205 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:29,679 Speaker 1: so don't go away. I'll be right back, all right, 206 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 1: welcome back. If you just tune in, you listening to 207 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 1: the Mark Mass Show, we're talking about the Bitcoin ETF, 208 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 1: buy the rumor and sell the news event. What happened? Okay, 209 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 1: So as I was explaining before the break, the reason 210 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:42,599 Speaker 1: why I thought I was going to be buy the 211 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 1: room or sell the news event, and I was correct, 212 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: is because most people thought that as soon as the 213 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 1: ETFs open and people have started putting funds into there 214 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: to buy a bitcoin, they would go buy it on 215 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 1: the market, which would cause the supply demand imbalance and 216 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,679 Speaker 1: push the price up. But as I explained, that's not 217 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 1: actually the way it works. You see, most of these 218 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: ETFs have already bought the bitcoin. The bitcoin has been 219 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: sitting in these seed accounts, or these these buffer accounts, 220 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: if you will, and as soon as the orders come in, 221 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,679 Speaker 1: they'll just pull it from their other accounts, not from 222 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:12,559 Speaker 1: what's on the market. You see what they had in 223 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: these tea accounts, and the buffer count had already been 224 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:16,679 Speaker 1: taken off the market for some time. So over the 225 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: last let's say, six nine months, as we've watched the 226 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: price of bitcoin go from twenty five thousand, thirty thirty five, 227 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 1: et cetera, up, it's because all this demand, these ETFs 228 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: were buying all this bitcoin, putting in these seed accounts, 229 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 1: as well as people like you and I were trying 230 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 1: to front run by the rumor sell the news event, 231 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 1: and so what I've thought would happen, and what did 232 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,959 Speaker 1: happen is that everyone thought that this money would go 233 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: to the ets that did, but they didn't go buy 234 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,079 Speaker 1: the bitcoin off the market. Instead they just moved it 235 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 1: over from the buffer account. So that's the way it works. 236 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 1: The ETFs cannot be buying and selling in the open 237 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 1: market on a regular daily basis. The amount of buying 238 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 1: and selling is too much for the amount of liquidity 239 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 1: in the bitcoin market, so they drive the price up 240 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: and down. So they have to use these buffer seed 241 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:03,319 Speaker 1: accounts sort of to trade in the market, to know 242 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 1: when to refill and so forth, and then the ETFs 243 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: buy and sell directly out of that account. And so 244 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:11,679 Speaker 1: what I warned is that everyone was expecting this. A 245 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 1: lot of people were trying to front run this, and 246 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 1: so as soon as the news broke the ETFs opened, 247 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,439 Speaker 1: everyone would sell. And that's exactly what happened. We saw 248 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: the price of bitcoin dump and sell off. And what 249 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 1: I warned everyone, as they said this is probably gonna happen, 250 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: don't get fooled into selling. So a lot of people 251 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 1: were like, this is it. It's going to thirty five 252 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: thousand twenty five thousand, twenty thousand, I'm out, I'm gonna 253 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: sell the top. I said, don't do that, because it's 254 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 1: gonna be a small dip and you're gonna get You're 255 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: gonna get faked out, and then the price will go 256 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: back up. And that's exactly what we're seeing. The price 257 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: has gone back up. As a matter of fact. Let 258 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: me just pull up my chart here. We can see 259 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,679 Speaker 1: that when the ETF got announced, the price dropped twenty percent, 260 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: and since then, on January twenty third, it's now up 261 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:56,679 Speaker 1: sixteen percent, so it's almost back to where it was 262 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 1: during that time. But let's take a look at what's 263 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 1: happened in the ETF since then so you can understand 264 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 1: where we're going in the future. All right, So let's 265 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: look at a couple of things here. What are some 266 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 1: of the main points. So first of all, part of 267 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,439 Speaker 1: the reason why we also saw the price sell off 268 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,599 Speaker 1: is because there was no Bitcoin ETF, but there was 269 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 1: something else called the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, and the Greyscale 270 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 1: Bitcoin Trust had been holding a ton of bitcoin for 271 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 1: a long time and they got converted over into an 272 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,959 Speaker 1: ETF when all the other ETFs went live. But what 273 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: happened is a lot of investors had their bitcoin locked 274 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,439 Speaker 1: up in this trust for a long time, and the 275 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 1: trust has very exorbitant fees, and so as soon as 276 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 1: it got opened up where they could get their bitcoin 277 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 1: out and they had another choice to go into another 278 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: ETF that had much lower fees, of course they wanted 279 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 1: to do that. And so what happened is as much 280 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:52,559 Speaker 1: bitcoin was being purchased, a lot of it was being 281 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: offset by the selling that was going on because of 282 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: the GBTC outflows at the same time. Now I talked 283 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 1: about the GBDZ price of bitcoin, it was traded at, 284 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: you know, a thirty five or forty percent discount to 285 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 1: the NAB to the net asset value. So if you 286 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: bought in at that point, you did really well. Not 287 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 1: only did you get the appreciation on bitcoin, but you 288 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:14,839 Speaker 1: got the extra thirty five to forty percent as well. 289 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: But what happened is, as soon as like I said, 290 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 1: black Rock and all these other ones started buying, gray 291 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:24,320 Speaker 1: Scale was offsetting that was selling at the same time. 292 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: But it was a massive success. Like I said, within 293 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 1: I think the first five days of trading, the Bitcoin 294 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: ETF became the second largest ETF in the world. It 295 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 1: overtook silver for that position. And what we saw some 296 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 1: of this, some of this on chain data that we 297 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 1: saw is that there were some increased on chain activity. 298 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 1: So the one beauty of bitcoin is that the network 299 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: is open source, meaning we can see it all. It's 300 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: an it's not private because we can see it, but 301 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,319 Speaker 1: it's anonymous. We don't know who it belongs to. And 302 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 1: the ability or i should say the transparency, the ability 303 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 1: to see through. The transparency that gives us the ability 304 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: to see through it allows us to get data on 305 00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:58,839 Speaker 1: assets that we've never had before, which is part of 306 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 1: the reason why I think bitcoin's somewhat resistant to sort 307 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 1: of this manipulation and capture. This's happened in the gold 308 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:06,679 Speaker 1: industry with the gold ETFs because gold we don't have 309 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 1: that transparency. We can't see that, but with bitcoin we can. 310 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: But we could see is as soon as the ETF 311 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 1: opened up, we could see coins, bitcoins that hadn't been 312 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 1: moved in a long time started to move, and so 313 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: we saw coins starting to sell. Into that event that 314 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: caused that liquidity, a lot of old supply started entering 315 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 1: the market. Now to sort of break this down and 316 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: put this into a little bit of into comparison to 317 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: show you how much buying there was. Though, like I said, 318 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 1: a lot of people thought that it was sort of 319 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: a flop, and they said they thought it was a 320 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 1: flop because it didn't bring the price of bitcoin up 321 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: as high as a lot of people thought it was. 322 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, it went down a little bit. 323 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: But as I explained why that happened. But to show 324 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: you just a little bit of how big it went up, 325 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 1: we can see that micro strategy. Michael Saylor's company have 326 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 1: been the biggest holder of bitcoin. I think they have 327 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: of one hundred and eighty thousand bitcoin at this point, 328 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 1: and with only one month, we saw the bitcoin ETF 329 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 1: hold almost just as much. I mean in a massive 330 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 1: amount of buying at one time. We can see the 331 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: ETF flows in dollar terms were total spot bitcoin. We 332 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 1: can see that, yeah, billions of dollars. We saw nine 333 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 1: thousand bitcoin per day were being added. Now back to 334 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 1: supply and demand. Just like oil is brought from the ground, 335 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: just like just like gold is mine from the ground, 336 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 1: you have to get equipment, you have to use energy, 337 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: you have to dig in the ground to get gold out. 338 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: Also with bitcoin mining, you have to get a computer, 339 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 1: you have to plug it into a network, and you 340 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 1: have to spend time, effort, and energy in order to 341 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: solve complex problems in order to get bitcoin out of 342 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 1: the ground. All right, I want to get super deep 343 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 1: into that. What happens is there's about nine hundred bitcoin 344 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: per day that get unlocked and released into the into 345 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: the world. Now, what happens is the supply of bitcoin 346 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: will is cap there will never be more than twenty 347 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 1: one million. And what happens is about nine hundred per 348 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 1: day being released until we get to twenty one million 349 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: and there will be no more, which is over one 350 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: hundred years from now. Every four years, the amount of 351 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: bitcoin being released gets cut in half. It's known as 352 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: the having event. The having event is coming up in 353 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 1: about two and a half months from now, roughly, and 354 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: at that point, the new supply of bitcoin will get 355 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 1: cut in half. And right now, there's about nine hundred 356 00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 1: per day being released, and the bitcoin ETFs are buying 357 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: about nine thousand. Supply and demand. If they're buying nine 358 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 1: thousand but there's only nine hundred, what do you think 359 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: happens to the price? Now, let's go through the having. 360 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: The having will happen sometime early April potentially, we don't 361 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 1: know exact date based off of the blocks. But let's 362 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 1: just say that the bitcoin ETF demand stays at nine thousand, 363 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: and the supply goes from nine hundred to half of 364 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 1: that to four point fifteen. Then what happens in the price? 365 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 1: What happens when the GBTC Trust runs out of bitcoin 366 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,439 Speaker 1: to sell after all that moves, and then the supply 367 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: gets cut in half. Do you understand the supply demand 368 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 1: imbalance that can happen? Now at this point, we can 369 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: see that there's ten times more bitcoin being a common 370 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,399 Speaker 1: accumulating than what's being released, but after the having it 371 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:30,400 Speaker 1: goes to twenty times. It's a big difference. At this point, 372 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:35,199 Speaker 1: we can see the leading ETFs are Grayscale, Blackrock, and Fidelity. 373 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 1: They're leading the leading the race with the assets under management. 374 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,439 Speaker 1: Grayscale is still sort of leading it just because they 375 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 1: had the biggest They had the biggest lead. Looks like 376 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 1: the I Shares Bitcoin Trust has about one hundred and 377 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 1: thirty seven billion our total volume six point seven, Fidelity 378 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 1: five point five, Kathy Woods Arc down at one point eight. 379 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:03,199 Speaker 1: The rest are all pretty much down below that. If 380 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: you're just tuning in listening to the Mark mass Show, 381 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,879 Speaker 1: talking about what happened with the bitcoin ETFs, why was 382 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: the buyer, the rumor sell of the news event and 383 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:12,160 Speaker 1: what comes next? I'll be back with this interesting turn 384 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 1: of events in a very quick minute. Don't go away 385 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just tune in, 386 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:18,120 Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Moss Show. We're talking about 387 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 1: bitcoin ETF and why was the buy, the rumor sell, 388 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: the news event and what comes next? Now, one interesting 389 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 1: turn of events that I really love to see is innovation. 390 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,959 Speaker 1: I love to see competition. Competition always leads to better products, 391 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: better service, better prices for you and I the consumer. 392 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,639 Speaker 1: One of the things I talked about earlier was how 393 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,400 Speaker 1: Bitcoin's open network, the transparency and the open network. It's 394 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: it's not private because we can see it, but it's anonymous. 395 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 1: And that anonymous open network allows us to see the 396 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 1: data of where the bitcoin is, what addresses they're in, 397 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 1: how long it's been since they've moved, and so forth, 398 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: and that allows us to not have to trust, but 399 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,160 Speaker 1: we can verify. We can verify how many bitcoin are there. 400 00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: And I talked about why I think it's gonna be 401 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: much more resistant to manipulation than we've seen with the 402 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,680 Speaker 1: gold ETFs and so forth. And so I said, there's 403 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 1: about estimated between one to five hundred paper ounces of 404 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 1: gold for every one physical ounce of gold. If your 405 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: statistical data shows one to five hundred, that means you 406 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: basically don't know anything. That's way too big of a range. 407 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 1: And it's sort of resistant, not only because of the 408 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 1: you know, we're not able to see the data of gold, 409 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 1: but more importantly, you can't just take delivery. You have 410 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 1: one hundred billion dollars worth of gold, How do you 411 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 1: even do that? Right? They don't even have it in 412 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 1: the vaults? How are they even transported to? Where would 413 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 1: you even store it? Right? But with bitcoin, with a 414 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 1: push of a button, I can instantly take delivery of 415 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 1: it and it costs me zero dollars to take delivery 416 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 1: of it and to secure it and store it. You 417 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 1: have a billion dollars of gold, you have to build 418 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 1: an army to protect that a billion dollars. A bitcoin, 419 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: no one even needs to know you have it, and 420 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 1: it can be cryptographically secured and that way, and so 421 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 1: I think that also helps push back against what the 422 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,480 Speaker 1: ETF can do or like what's happened with gold ETFs, 423 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 1: because I can instantly just take delivery of it. Now, 424 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,440 Speaker 1: because of the open anonymous nature of it, we should 425 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,479 Speaker 1: be able to somehow addit the network. And a lot 426 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 1: of people would say that with these gold ETFs, you 427 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 1: don't know if the ETF actually has the gold. What 428 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 1: I suspect is that when push comes to shove a 429 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: lot of people, we know based off the data, a 430 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:24,920 Speaker 1: lot of people are gonna think they have gold and 431 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 1: they don't. They're gonna end up either hopefully they're gonna 432 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 1: get cashed out and at least get some VA currency, 433 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: or they end up with nothing. And so the big 434 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 1: question is do these ETFs really have the gold they 435 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 1: say they have? And then with the bitcoin ETFs, do 436 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,680 Speaker 1: the bitcoin ETFs really have the bitcoin they say they have. Well, 437 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 1: one of the ETFs, bit wise, they decided to publish 438 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: their on chain address to increase transparency. So that basically 439 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: means that they said they shared their public address, so 440 00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,879 Speaker 1: anyone can log onto the address and see that the 441 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,399 Speaker 1: amount of bitcoin they have matches what they show in 442 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 1: the ETF. Now, what I love about this is, like 443 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: I said back to this competition. What I really hope 444 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: is that there will be demand for that and consumers 445 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 1: will flock to that because of that feature, and then 446 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: we'll start to see more ETF start to adopt that. 447 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 1: Intrue competitive fashion would be really good. That's one way 448 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 1: that we can hopefully keep it from getting manipulated like 449 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 1: we've seen with gold. Now, what is next for bitcoin? 450 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,879 Speaker 1: Let's talk about this. So not only do we have 451 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,639 Speaker 1: supply fixed Chapter twenty one million, not only do we 452 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,919 Speaker 1: have long term demand meaning I think governments print more 453 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 1: money in the future. I think government can get more 454 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 1: authoritary in the future. We also have this they have 455 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,119 Speaker 1: being coming down where it cuts the supply. We have 456 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,399 Speaker 1: institutional demand picking up now all these ETFs. Seventy two 457 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,200 Speaker 1: percent of financial advisors said that they would recommend bitcoin 458 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:58,120 Speaker 1: once there's an ETF approved. We have the Grays Bitcoin 459 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 1: Trust that's sort of been dwindling and emptying out. Last 460 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 1: year we had FTX, you know, blow up, and also 461 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 1: people thought they were buying bitcoin there they weren't, so 462 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 1: that was also manipulating the price. So a lot of 463 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 1: that stuff is gone. So what's next for bitcoin. We 464 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 1: also know that the amount of bitcoin on exchanges is 465 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 1: lower than at any previous HAVING time. So again we're 466 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 1: almost at the HAVING, So there's a lot of dynamics 467 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 1: that are different from this time. So where does the 468 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,639 Speaker 1: price go when we know that typically the price of 469 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:41,880 Speaker 1: bitcoin peaks eighteen months after the HAVING date. Now we've 470 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 1: only had four having Well we're on our fourth halving 471 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 1: cycle right now, so it's not like total empirical evidence. 472 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: It's kind of a small sample size. However, about eighteen 473 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 1: months after the having we see the peak of bitcoin. 474 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 1: So where was it last time? It peaked in November 475 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 1: of twenty twenty one, which was eighteen months after the 476 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:10,439 Speaker 1: last HAVING, which saw it peak at about seventy thousand dollars. 477 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: It was a lot lower than most people had expected, 478 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 1: including myself. We thought it should have been somewhere around 479 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Some of the reasons 480 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 1: why potentially that it ended up less than that was one. 481 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 1: We had the whole Tara Luna FTX and GBTC shenanigans 482 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 1: going down, all that fraud Celsius Tara Luna, all that 483 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:36,399 Speaker 1: bitcoin was manipulated and stolen. That happened, and at the 484 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 1: same time we saw the Federal Reserve about face on 485 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,120 Speaker 1: the interest rates and start raising rates, and so maybe 486 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,200 Speaker 1: those couple of things caused it to be a little 487 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,680 Speaker 1: bit lower than it could have been, or maybe should 488 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 1: have been. We don't really know, but we do know 489 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 1: that we're coming up into the having and about, like 490 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,359 Speaker 1: I said, eighteen months after we see that price go up. 491 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: We do know that there's less bitcoin on exchanges, and 492 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:01,720 Speaker 1: the reason why that's important to understand is that the 493 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,399 Speaker 1: bitcoin exchange is what we would consider liquid. So if 494 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 1: it's sitting on exchange, somebody probably wants to trade with it, 495 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,920 Speaker 1: trade it for another all coin, sell it for cash 496 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 1: when it goes up, something like that. If it's in 497 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 1: cold storage, it's not as accessible, so typically it's there 498 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 1: for a longer term. And what we can see is 499 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: that the exchange balances have just been declining since the 500 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,120 Speaker 1: last HAVING, They've been rapidly declining. I'm looking at chart, 501 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:30,879 Speaker 1: but I can't show you. So there's that. In addition, 502 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,359 Speaker 1: we also have other factors. So in the last HAVING cycle, 503 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,199 Speaker 1: we had factors working against us. So again we had 504 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 1: the FTX, we had the Celsius, we had the Terra Luna, 505 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: and we had the Fed pivot and start tightening the 506 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:47,440 Speaker 1: monetary cycle. Now at the HAVING we're seeing the opposite. 507 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 1: So now we've cleared out the FTX, we've cleared out 508 00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 1: the TERROR, and we've cleared out the Celsius. We don't 509 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,399 Speaker 1: really have any of that garbage overhanging right now. The 510 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 1: GBTC is basically cleared out, or it's getting there orderly 511 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: in a way. But instead of the FED pivoting and 512 00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 1: go into a very tight hawkish stance, the Fed's actually 513 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: doing the opposite Right now. Now the FED is moving 514 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 1: into an easing stance. They're looking to start lowering rates 515 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 1: here sometime in the next couple of months. We have 516 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: and if to remember, bitcoin is not just a US 517 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,719 Speaker 1: based asset, it's a global asset. We have right now 518 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: China is melting down and the Chinese government is shoving 519 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: money into the economy as fast as they can, and 520 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 1: the people of China that are getting that money are 521 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,239 Speaker 1: trying to get out of the country as fast they can. 522 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 1: And one of the best ways they can get money 523 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,480 Speaker 1: out of the country is to buy bitcoin. Sure, they 524 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:35,880 Speaker 1: can go to Vancouver or Seattle and buy homes. That's 525 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,560 Speaker 1: not easy. Buying bitcoin is very quick and easy. They 526 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,160 Speaker 1: can buy gold, but what do they do with the gold? 527 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 1: It's still stuck in China. And so we have these 528 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 1: playing out. We have currencies around the world Argentina, Venezuela, Lebanon, Turkey. 529 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,359 Speaker 1: The currencies are melting down. People have to get out 530 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,399 Speaker 1: of that currency as fasts they can. If they can 531 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,400 Speaker 1: get dollars, then they'll certainly do that. They'll get whatever 532 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 1: they get their hands on, typically not very much. Other 533 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: than that, they don't have money options, and so bitcoin 534 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 1: becomes a good option for them. So the entire sort 535 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,880 Speaker 1: of global outlook just looks a lot different at this point. 536 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,040 Speaker 1: Fiscal policies changing. We had Drome power of the Filer 537 00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 1: Reserve was just on sixty minutes a couple of days ago, 538 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 1: and you talked about how the fiscal situation, this is 539 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,280 Speaker 1: the amount of money the government spending is unsustainable. He 540 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,880 Speaker 1: said that we're borrowing from future generations, which of course 541 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 1: we've been saying for years. So you take all of 542 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 1: us into consideration, and then you take into consideration that 543 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 1: we have the ETF there. I believe that the ETF 544 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 1: is going to continue to build bigger and bigger and bigger, 545 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:40,160 Speaker 1: demand more demand over the long term, which will continue 546 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 1: to buy Remember, like I said, seventy two percent of 547 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 1: financial advisors said they would recommend to buy bitcoin. But 548 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 1: that doesn't happen overnight. This is going to take months 549 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:50,920 Speaker 1: and years to play out. As a matter of fact, 550 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 1: we can see when gold was first turned into an ETF, 551 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 1: it was November of two thousand and four. The price 552 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:04,080 Speaker 1: of gold didn't peak until June of twenty twelve, so 553 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,160 Speaker 1: from that was eight years from the time the ETF 554 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,960 Speaker 1: was announced. For eight years, gold was on a major 555 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,680 Speaker 1: bull run once those ETFs were approved. So I think 556 00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: that's more about what I would expect with bitcoin. I 557 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:20,119 Speaker 1: expect another strong eight years or potentially even longer. But 558 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 1: where could the price end up. If you're just tuning in, 559 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,639 Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Moss Show, we're talking about 560 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 1: the Bitcoin ETF, buy the rumor, sell the news event, 561 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,360 Speaker 1: what's coming up next? And after a very short break, 562 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 1: I'm gonna tell you where I think the price ends up. 563 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 1: You don't want to miss it, don't go away. I'll 564 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,560 Speaker 1: be right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just 565 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:41,520 Speaker 1: tune in, you're listening to the Mark Moss Show, We're 566 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,359 Speaker 1: talking about the bitcoin ETFs and where they buy the 567 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 1: rumor sell the news event. Well, we know in hindsight 568 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,439 Speaker 1: now they were. I predicted it December fifth. I put 569 00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,159 Speaker 1: out a video on my main YouTube channel. Go watch it. 570 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,440 Speaker 1: If you want the full details on what happened, just 571 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 1: search Mark Moss Bitcoin ETF you'll find it. But the 572 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,840 Speaker 1: question that's probably the top of your mind now is 573 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 1: where do we go from here? Now this is a 574 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 1: full disclaimer. I am not your financial advisor. I am 575 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 1: not telling you to go buy bitcoin. Most of you 576 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 1: probably shouldn't buy bitcoin. Actually everyone should know on bitcoin, 577 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:15,680 Speaker 1: but I'm not sure financial advisor. I'm not telling you 578 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,879 Speaker 1: to buy and I'm going to do my best to 579 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,240 Speaker 1: give you some frameworks as to where I think it 580 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:22,879 Speaker 1: could go. But I'm just gonna let you know in 581 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,159 Speaker 1: advance that my crystal ball is pretty fuzzy. It's not 582 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 1: super clear here. All right, So we know that bitcoin 583 00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,920 Speaker 1: moves on these four year cycles. We know that the 584 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,400 Speaker 1: four year cycle is known as the having event, which 585 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 1: cuts the supply, and a half happens in less than 586 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 1: ninety days, about sixty eight days from now, So we 587 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 1: know that happens. We know that bitcoin peaks typically eighteen 588 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,320 Speaker 1: months after that date, so we have about a year 589 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 1: and a half in front of us. Then we have 590 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 1: to look at the supply demand characteristics of that and 591 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 1: other underlying things. So remember, as I talked about the 592 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,200 Speaker 1: last cycle, it got cut short because the Fed and 593 00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 1: the central banks went into a tightening set. They started 594 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 1: sucking the money, sucking the liquidity out of the system. 595 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,880 Speaker 1: But that's not here right now. All that's being switched over, 596 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 1: and now we're starting to ease, We're starting to inject 597 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 1: liquidity back in the system. The FED said they would 598 00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 1: start lowering rates here in the next couple of months. 599 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 1: Central banks around the world, in Japan, the ECB, they're 600 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 1: already easying. We got China shoveling money under their system 601 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 1: as fast as they possibly can. And at the same time, 602 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,840 Speaker 1: in the US, the fiscal situation, which is the US treasury, 603 00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: the government is spending money like a drug con sailor. 604 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 1: They cannot spend money fast enough, and we didn't see 605 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 1: that before. So not only do we have this having cycle, 606 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 1: which is just natural cycle which sort of plays off 607 00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 1: business cycles and credit cycles, but at the same time, 608 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 1: the entire global liquidity went from it It wasn't a 609 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 1: tightening cycle before, and now we're moving into an easing cycle, 610 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 1: so it's very bullish. On the other hand, a lot 611 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,960 Speaker 1: of the problems that we had, the GBTC, the FTX, 612 00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 1: the terror, Luna, the Celsius that really held bitcoin and cryptocre, 613 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,760 Speaker 1: he's in general down. They're all gone, so we don't 614 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 1: have those big things in front of us, So that's 615 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 1: bullish as well. Another thing we have, unfortunately, is we 616 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,360 Speaker 1: continue to have a rise of authoritarianism. I am afraid 617 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,320 Speaker 1: that if Europe, it looks like Europe probably first and 618 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 1: maybe even the US could get somewhat Dracconian with some 619 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,480 Speaker 1: rules and regulations they put on bitcoin, specifically around like 620 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 1: self ownership, that could potentially slow it down. But I 621 00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,280 Speaker 1: think people would still be buying it in the ETFs. 622 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,760 Speaker 1: They're not going to make the ETFs legal. That's there's 623 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,680 Speaker 1: like a zero point zero, zero zero one chance that 624 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 1: that happens. So I guess people still buy in the ETF, 625 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 1: so I'm not super worried about that, And then I 626 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 1: would say that I think the ETF demand is going 627 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 1: to be massive again. Seventy two percent of advisers said 628 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 1: they wouldcommend bitcoin once there's an ETF and there is in. 629 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 1: What I saw today was a report showing how fund managers. 630 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 1: So most people, a good majority of people don't manage 631 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 1: their own money, which, by the way, you should manage 632 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,320 Speaker 1: your own money. But most people aren't managing their own money, 633 00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,680 Speaker 1: and they're allowing their fund administrators either you know, whoever 634 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 1: runs their four oh one k's mutual funds, et cetera, 635 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,760 Speaker 1: to build these portfolios and manage them for them. And 636 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:09,959 Speaker 1: so what we saw today is a lot of these 637 00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 1: funds are starting to already put bitcoin in. So what 638 00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,160 Speaker 1: that means is that we're going to see millions and millions, 639 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,040 Speaker 1: tens of millions of people owning bitcoin and not even 640 00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 1: knowing it. I write an investment newsletter called the Tactical 641 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 1: Asset Report, where I every single month, I write a 642 00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 1: deep research report showing you what I think is happening 643 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 1: in the market and what I'm buying or selling at 644 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,920 Speaker 1: that time based off of that information, and I get 645 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 1: people that come in new students every day into the newsletter. 646 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:36,960 Speaker 1: And the first thing that we want to do is 647 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:38,640 Speaker 1: we want to look at all the assets that we have, 648 00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:40,920 Speaker 1: and we want to look at what buckets or what 649 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,280 Speaker 1: pillars of our portfolio they're in, so we can build 650 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 1: the best portfolio. And most people don't even know what 651 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 1: they have because it's all just like in a four 652 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 1: oh one K. They don't even know what's in there. 653 00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,760 Speaker 1: And so all of those people will be buying bitcoin 654 00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 1: without knowing they're buying bitcoin. Their fund administrators, their advisors 655 00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 1: will be buying it for them. And that's why I 656 00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:59,800 Speaker 1: think these ETFs have this long road in front of it, 657 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 1: sort of like the gold ETF had an eight year 658 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 1: run in front of it, I think we see the 659 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,480 Speaker 1: bitcoin ETF have probably a lot longer than an eight 660 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,480 Speaker 1: year run. As a matter of fact, it ran for 661 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 1: eight years before it pulled back. And of course now 662 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,160 Speaker 1: goal is back above that previous high, and so I 663 00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 1: think the same thing happens with bitcoin. So when you 664 00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 1: add all those things up, I'm pretty bullish on what 665 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,440 Speaker 1: happens over the next eighteen months with the price to bitcoin, 666 00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,600 Speaker 1: or about two years at this point. So what does 667 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 1: the crystal ball have to say about the pricing? Well, again, 668 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 1: my crystal ball is pretty fuzzy. But if we look 669 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,160 Speaker 1: at some charts and some grafts and look at some 670 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:37,840 Speaker 1: Fibonacci lines. We look at some analyst experts, we see 671 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:39,720 Speaker 1: that the predictions are sort of all over the board, 672 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 1: and they're ranging typically between one hundred thousand to two 673 00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,280 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand. That's where a lot of people 674 00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,760 Speaker 1: project that we could be at the next having cycle, 675 00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:53,560 Speaker 1: which is about about two years from now. Now, again, 676 00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:55,920 Speaker 1: that's a pretty wide range, and so it's kind of 677 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: statistically irrelevant. It's such a big range. What do I think. 678 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:06,240 Speaker 1: I think that one hundred should be pretty doable, which 679 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 1: is more than one hundred percent from here. I think 680 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,680 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty depending on how hard the Federal reserve, 681 00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 1: the central banks of the rest of the world China, 682 00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:18,920 Speaker 1: depending on how hard they go into liquidy. We could 683 00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:23,040 Speaker 1: even overshoot that number, but it's hard to say. But 684 00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 1: I think one hundred is a pretty conservative number, with 685 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 1: maybe up to one hundred and fifty that's probably where 686 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 1: i'd put it. I think two fifty is probably a 687 00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 1: little bit aggressive. I think when I look at the data, 688 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 1: each cycle is lower than the last, so it looks 689 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:41,480 Speaker 1: like each one is down. Each new high is about 690 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 1: thirty percent of the previous one, so the first one 691 00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 1: had gone up sixteen thousand percent from the having to 692 00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,680 Speaker 1: the peak was up sixteen thousand percent, the second one 693 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:55,920 Speaker 1: was up five four hundred percent, the third one was 694 00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,520 Speaker 1: up twelve hundred percent, and the fourth one was up 695 00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:03,840 Speaker 1: four hundred and forty percent. So if we if we 696 00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,840 Speaker 1: continue that trend, it puts it at about one point fifty, 697 00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:11,359 Speaker 1: which is a which is a two hundred percent from 698 00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:14,000 Speaker 1: where we're at right now. I don't see any other 699 00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:15,759 Speaker 1: asset in the world that would go up that much, 700 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 1: So it's still a pretty good deal. But I don't know, 701 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:20,759 Speaker 1: what do you think about that? Now? What could go 702 00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:22,799 Speaker 1: wrong with this? Well, there's lots of things that can 703 00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:24,840 Speaker 1: go wrong with it. One of the biggest things that 704 00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:28,239 Speaker 1: we could have would be a massive liquidity event. So 705 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,320 Speaker 1: what does that mean? Like a banking crisis. So we 706 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,640 Speaker 1: have lots of pinpricks that are out there. We know, 707 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:38,040 Speaker 1: for example, there's about two point nine trillion dollars of 708 00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:41,400 Speaker 1: commercial real estate mortgage backed bonds that could go bankrupt, 709 00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,680 Speaker 1: could crash the regional banking system, could crash the entire 710 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,279 Speaker 1: banking system, sort of like a two thousand and eight event. 711 00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:49,879 Speaker 1: Then we saw when the bank when when the banks 712 00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,640 Speaker 1: collapsed then we saw the S and P five hundred 713 00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:56,000 Speaker 1: sell off by you know, over fifty percent. If something 714 00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 1: like that happened, then the price of bitcoin is going 715 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:02,160 Speaker 1: to drop as well. Gold dropped twenty five percent when 716 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:06,080 Speaker 1: SMP sold off fifty percent. Maybe there's another pandemic. Right 717 00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 1: during the pandemic, we saw the price of bitcoin plunge 718 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,600 Speaker 1: big time as everything did. The S and P five hundred, 719 00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,239 Speaker 1: gold and bitcoin they all plunged as well. So if 720 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,920 Speaker 1: we get another big event like two thousand and eight 721 00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 1: like we saw in the pandemic, then certainly we could 722 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:24,359 Speaker 1: see that completely derail things. That's not my base case. 723 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:29,840 Speaker 1: What else could happen? Well, I suppose the central banks 724 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:33,279 Speaker 1: could decide that they would rather fight inflation and not 725 00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:38,120 Speaker 1: prop up their own governments. I don't see that as 726 00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 1: my base case either, because if they don't promp up 727 00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,040 Speaker 1: their governments and their governments collapse, then what's the point 728 00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,720 Speaker 1: of saving their currency. So I think governments will choose 729 00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,600 Speaker 1: inflation over deflation every single day. So that's not my 730 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:52,759 Speaker 1: base case. So my base case is probably, like I said, 731 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:57,719 Speaker 1: either some sort of either some big event causing a 732 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,200 Speaker 1: massive liquidity crisis could be you know, a war, escalation, 733 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,080 Speaker 1: nuclear war, heaven forbid. Please, I'm not saying that I 734 00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:07,080 Speaker 1: don't want that, you know, another pandemic, which again I 735 00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:10,520 Speaker 1: certainly do not want, or some other cascade event where 736 00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:12,520 Speaker 1: the banks start to collapse and the government doesn't step 737 00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:14,839 Speaker 1: in to save that, which again is not my base case. 738 00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:17,920 Speaker 1: Any one of those potentials, though, could derail all of this. 739 00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:21,720 Speaker 1: So there is no guarantee. There is no thing that's certain, 740 00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:24,840 Speaker 1: and because of that, I certainly would never put one 741 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,040 Speaker 1: hundred percent of my money into this. Now if I 742 00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,359 Speaker 1: had five hundred bucks, I guess yolo right. But if 743 00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:30,960 Speaker 1: you have enough money, you do not want to put 744 00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:34,440 Speaker 1: everything in because the future is not certain. Who knows 745 00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,640 Speaker 1: what can happen, So put a reasonable amount, whatever that 746 00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:39,920 Speaker 1: is for you. I think minimum two and a half 747 00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:43,239 Speaker 1: percent of your investable net worth. If you understand it, 748 00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:44,440 Speaker 1: you like it a little bit more, you can go 749 00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 1: up to five percent, ten percent. If you're a psychopath, 750 00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:48,680 Speaker 1: like a lot of bitcoinners, I know, it might be 751 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,960 Speaker 1: thirty forty fifty percent, and I'll let you kind of 752 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,080 Speaker 1: figure out what works best for you. I'd love to 753 00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:55,160 Speaker 1: hear what you have to say, though. Hit me up 754 00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:57,759 Speaker 1: on social media. Let me know that you're listening. You're 755 00:36:57,800 --> 00:36:59,840 Speaker 1: listening to the Mark Moss Show talking about the intersection 756 00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 1: of politics, finance, and technology. Today we're talking about the 757 00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:06,000 Speaker 1: financial system and the technology of bitcoin, and that's what 758 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,719 Speaker 1: I got. Thanks so much for listening. Until next time.