1 00:00:01,760 --> 00:00:05,560 Speaker 1: Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast about business, political and 2 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: social disruption and what we can learn from it. I'm 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: Tim O'Brien. Today's Crash Course Britain versus Brexit. I'm old 4 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: enough to remember that when British voters decided back in 5 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: June twenty sixteen to end their forty three year membership 6 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: in the European Union, it seemed the most surreal political 7 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: and economic event imaginable. Brexit Britain exiting the EU remains 8 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 1: a watershed moment. The European Union was a statement of 9 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 1: purpose as much as a trade relationship. It symbolized European 10 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 1: countries putting centuries of hostility and two World Wars behind 11 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 1: them in the interest of economic cooperation. It represented European 12 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: countries recognizing they had a more muscular global trade profile, 13 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 1: competing together rather than separately against powerhouses like the US. 14 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: Brexit turned that on its head. It revealed the Tory 15 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: Party as captive to its far right constituency and put 16 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: issues like immigration, regulation, globalization, and the identities of both 17 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:13,839 Speaker 1: the Europe and the UK up for grabs. Joining Crash 18 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 1: Course to help make sense of this is Bloomberg Opinion 19 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: columnist Adrian Wooldridge. Adrian had a storied career at The 20 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 1: Economist before joining our team, and he's an erudite, contrarian 21 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: and delightful observer of political economy and England. Welcome Adrian, 22 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: Thank you for that. So can we talk a little 23 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: bit about Englishness, for lack of a better word, what 24 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 1: is it about that little island that has had such 25 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 1: a big stamp on history and has introduced so much 26 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: to the world that it came to this moment that 27 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: it felt his identity was so distinct and so possibly 28 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 1: threatened by the European experiment that decided to just turn 29 00:01:59,280 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: its back on. 30 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 2: The Well, you use the word English listener, which is 31 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 2: a very interesting word in itself, because we can't decide 32 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:10,399 Speaker 2: whether we're British or English. And in many ways, what 33 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 2: Brexit was about was about English nationalism, which had been 34 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 2: a very submerged force for a long time but became very, 35 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:21,399 Speaker 2: very powerful with the Brexit votes. In the early part 36 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 2: of the twentieth century, people used the term English to 37 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 2: mean Britain, and nobody seemed to mind people doing that. 38 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 2: So one of the greatest essays on Britain actually is 39 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 2: England by England by George or Wall which came out 40 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,519 Speaker 2: in nineteen forty one, and the Scots read it with 41 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 2: as much pleasure as the English did. But I think 42 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 2: englishness became rather separate from British nists much more recently, 43 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 2: partly in reaction to the rise of Scottish nationalism. 44 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: Oh so wait, wait, wait, so just to find the 45 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 1: two of our American Nish audience. 46 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 2: Well, England is England and Britain is England plus Northern 47 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 2: Ireland and Scotland and Wales. 48 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 1: And then the UK is the whole ball of wax. 49 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 2: Absolutely And in the Brexit votes, the Northern Irish actually 50 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 2: voted to stay in the European Union. The Scottish voted 51 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 2: by a large majority to stay in the European Union. 52 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 2: This was really driven. It was an English thing. It 53 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 2: was driven by the English. Now the English are overwhelmingly 54 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 2: important in this union because we English are eighty four 55 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 2: percent of the population. But it was a manifestation of 56 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 2: English nationalism which hadn't really existed in people's minds because 57 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 2: they couldn't distinguish between Britain and England, but became a very, 58 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 2: very powerful and potent force. And I remember when I 59 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 2: went to live in the United States that I did 60 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety seven, I never saw an English flag, 61 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 2: which is the Cross of Saint George. When I came 62 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 2: back thirteen years later, they were all over the place. 63 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 2: So there's been an upsurge in English nationalism as opposed 64 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 2: to Scottish nationalism or britishness, which has driven a. 65 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: Lot of this has by word Adrian, of course. 66 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 2: Partly by the Scottish independence movement. So you begin to 67 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 2: think of yourself as English because of the Scottish wanting 68 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 2: their own independence and driven you know, it was very 69 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 2: significant cent a sense of post imperial nostalgia, the sense 70 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 2: that England was being denigrated, England's was being crowned down 71 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 2: into being part of this supranational unit called the European Union, 72 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 2: and that we were proud of our identity. See. One 73 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 2: of the fundamental things about the European Union is it 74 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 2: was based on the sense of shame and never wanting 75 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 2: to do this again, primarily of course in Germany, but 76 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 2: also in France, which had collaboration on a large scale 77 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 2: during the Second World War, and Italy, which was you know, 78 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 2: fascist power, and it was built to say never again. 79 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:39,039 Speaker 2: Nationalism is a bad thing. Nationalism is awful. We must 80 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 2: get beyond it and create something else. Now, of course 81 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 2: England was on the other side in the war, and 82 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 2: English nationalism or British nationalism was, you know, the thing 83 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 2: that saved us from Hitler. 84 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 1: So we always have its positive, positive nationalism. 85 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 2: Totally positive nationalism. And I think in Europe there's been 86 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 2: this constant drumbeat of talk about the evils of nationalism 87 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 2: and getting beyond nationalism, and that was always very confusing 88 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,279 Speaker 2: to the British because we never wanted to do that. 89 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 2: That wasn't part of our deal in going to Europe. 90 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,479 Speaker 2: We wanted a Europe of countries, not a unified state. 91 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: And I guess we can get into this later. Certainly 92 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: not a state where the EU was telling Britain how 93 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 1: to regulate itself, which was how some of that was taken. 94 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: But we'll get into more of that later. The other 95 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 1: thing I want to touch on in this notion of 96 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 1: Englishness is it flared before. I remember during the Falkland War. 97 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 1: You know to great effect Thatcher used the Falklands as 98 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: a nationalist moment. It was president in the early two thousands. 99 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 1: There's the geography of the fact that the Channel divides 100 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 1: England from the continent. There's always been this idea that 101 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: England fortunately hasn't been pulled into the miseries that the 102 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: continent has experienced. But what made it come to a 103 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: head in such a dramatic way in twenty sixteen, and 104 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 1: we can segue into David Cameron in that context. 105 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,600 Speaker 2: Sure, And what really brought it to a head was 106 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 2: the sense that Europe was driving ever more rapidly towards integration, 107 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 2: not just being a Europe of separate countries that cooperated, 108 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 2: but being a single country with a single monetary union 109 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 2: celebrated by the European Union and rejected by Britain. We 110 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 2: didn't join the European Union by the admission of a 111 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 2: number of poorer countries into Europe. So Europe was both 112 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 2: deepening and expanding at the same time, and by Europe's 113 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 2: insistence that's an essential part of European identity was free 114 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 2: movement of people. Now it's slightly more complicated than that, 115 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 2: because Europe did provide a break and said we'll have 116 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 2: free movement of people, but there'll be five years in 117 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 2: which to adjust to that policy. And Tony Blair neglected 118 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 2: that break or rejected. I should say that break on 119 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 2: the grounds that Britain was going through a significant boom 120 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 2: at the time, and Blair thought that we needed lots 121 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:57,679 Speaker 2: of labor, so he thought, you know, free movement of labor, 122 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 2: lots of Romanians coming into the country, of polls coming 123 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,840 Speaker 2: into the country is a great thing. So we had 124 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 2: a big flood of people coming into the country courtesy 125 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 2: of our agreement. 126 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 1: Also, people who were willing to do work that a 127 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 1: lot of the English themselves didn't want. 128 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 2: To do absolutely, and willing to do it at a 129 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 2: lower price than the English Babs wanted to do it 130 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 2: as well. So that created much more friction than the 131 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 2: ruling elite imagined, and much more sense that we were 132 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 2: being undercut by foreign labor, integrated into a union based 133 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 2: on a free movement of people, which meant that we 134 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 2: couldn't control our own borders. So all of these things 135 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 2: were sort of bubbling away under the surface. At the 136 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 2: same time, Europe was moving on various technical issues to 137 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 2: close the deal on integration, and the noise from the 138 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 2: right of the party, from the Brexit right of the 139 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 2: party became louder and louder and louder. The noise from 140 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 2: the YUKIP Party became louder and louder and louder, and 141 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 2: eventually David Cameron made what I considered to be mistake, 142 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,119 Speaker 2: but he made the decision to put it to a referendum. 143 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 1: And the referendum went in a way he didn't think 144 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: it would. 145 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 2: Absolutely And one reason that he chose the referendum was 146 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 2: that we'd also had a referendum on Scottish independence and 147 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 2: Cameron won that referendum better together, so he thought, well, 148 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 2: I won one, why shouldn't I win another. And also, 149 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 2: I think the London dwelling elite of which I'm very 150 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 2: much a member, unfortunately, I think, believed that you couldn't 151 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 2: possibly get a Brexit victory, that allowing this vote would 152 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 2: quite an issue down people would stop banging on about Brexit, 153 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 2: as David Cameron put it, and we got this extraordinary result, 154 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 2: which was an incredible shock, certainly to me. 155 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's a famous signature moment, but I 156 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: don't think I will ever be able to get over 157 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: that moment when Cameron stood in front of ten Downing 158 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: Street and announced that he was going to dissolve his 159 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,199 Speaker 1: own government because of the vote, and then turned around 160 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 1: to walk back in, and he started sort of humming 161 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 1: to himself, la la la la, la la la as 162 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: he walked away from the lectern. But it smacked to 163 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: me a little bit of sort of Tory dolliance with 164 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 1: huge sober issues that had gone haywire on them, and 165 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: you could sort of merrely walk away from it because 166 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: it wasn't going to directly affect you. I want to 167 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: tell you a little anecdote for about it. I guess 168 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: a year ago or maybe two years ago, my wife 169 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 1: and my eldest son and I went out to Oxford 170 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 1: to do a tour there, and we were being guided 171 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: around the campus by a nice young Oxford student who, 172 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,439 Speaker 1: in the middle of it, began talking about Boris Johnson's 173 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: antics at the Bullingdon Club and how when he was 174 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: an undergrad at Oxford he and other members of the club, 175 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 1: Cameron was, I think in the club at the same time. 176 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 1: One of their rights of passage was to go to 177 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: a local restaurant, trashed the restaurant within an inch of 178 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: its life, and then their parents would pay the restaurant 179 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 1: owner for the damage, and that that was sort of 180 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:55,679 Speaker 1: an initiation right for the Bullington Club and I sort 181 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 1: of think of Brexit in similar fashion that David Cameron 182 00:09:59,880 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 1: and Boris Johnson went about sort of breaking this thing 183 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: and leaving it for someone else to fix. And it's 184 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 1: much more complex than having your parents come in and 185 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: pay the bill, obviously, but it sort of comes from 186 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: the same place to me in terms of a it's 187 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 1: obviously not no blessed oblige. I don't know what the 188 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 1: French word would be, but it's about, you know, no 189 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: blessed damage or whatever the word for destruction might be. 190 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: What does this say about the Tories and responsibility, Well. 191 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 2: There are two things here. One is that there was 192 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 2: an incredible pressure from the right of the Conservative Party, 193 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 2: which had been building for years and years and years, 194 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 2: to take Britain out of the European Union, or at 195 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 2: least to renegotiate our relationship with the European Union. And 196 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 2: you know, we've had massive battles in the late nineteen 197 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 2: nineties over the masterc Treaty, which was laying the foundations 198 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 2: for the common currency and for a much more integrated 199 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:58,320 Speaker 2: single market. So that was a sort of an ongoing 200 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 2: political problem, a problem of party management for the Tory Party, 201 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 2: and that was also made much more serious as a 202 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 2: problem with party management by the creation of UKIP, which 203 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 2: was pulling more and more votes from the Tory voters 204 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:16,080 Speaker 2: and was endangering Tory majorities. So MP's respond to that 205 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 2: sort of incentive, obviously, But I think there was a 206 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:22,839 Speaker 2: sort of arrogance, lack of seriousness. David Cameron was always 207 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 2: sort of an essay crisis prime minister or he liked 208 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 2: to chill ax, as he used it. He didn't like 209 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 2: to seem at least too serious. He liked to roll 210 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 2: the dice. He rolled the dice over Scottish independence and 211 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 2: it worked, so he did it again foolishly. And it's 212 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:41,680 Speaker 2: partly the sort of pistemic closure, as it were, that 213 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 2: if you live in the South of England, to conclude 214 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 2: that Brexit was a far out possibility seems quite reasonable. 215 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 2: Everybody you meet is pro staying. So it was a 216 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 2: sense in which the political class, including the Tory political class, 217 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 2: was cut off from the reality in the country. Now 218 00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 2: with Boris Johnson, I think it's a much more cynical 219 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:02,560 Speaker 2: thing that he calculated that the only way that he 220 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 2: could become Prime Minister was to become the champion of 221 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 2: the Brexit voting classes of the sort of the popularce 222 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 2: wing of the Tory Party. And he did that quite 223 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 2: quite cynically. So he was willing to smash up this 224 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 2: very delicate relationship with Europe in order to win the 225 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 2: prime ministership. So cynicism on his part and naivete or 226 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 2: insussance on the part of Cameron, and a certain degree 227 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 2: of fanaticism on the part of the prexitier wing of 228 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,680 Speaker 2: the Conservative Party. There were people in the Conservative Party 229 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 2: who'd been banging on about Brexit, you know, for twenty 230 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 2: or thirty years, Bill Cash being the sort of the 231 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 2: leader of that group of people who could not think 232 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:41,959 Speaker 2: about anything but Brexit for decades and decades and decades. 233 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: But it's meant beyond Cameron and beyond Boris. It is 234 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 1: meant in action and uncertainty for the party as a whole. 235 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: You've now had five prime ministers cycle through downing Streets Blackdoor, 236 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: including Boris, and the same Boris who in twenty eighteen 237 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: I think made the infamous proclamation screw business. He said 238 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 1: something more blue than that. But I'm cleaning it up 239 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 1: for our podcast. Where is the Tory identity amid all 240 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: of this? 241 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 2: Well, the Tory identity is an incredible mess at the 242 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:18,199 Speaker 2: moments because what Brexit did was to unmore the Conservative 243 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:23,080 Speaker 2: Party from certain very fundamental Conservative traditions and values. One 244 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,719 Speaker 2: traditional value is quite clearly support for business, which you've 245 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 2: seen for a very long time, and Boris's rather blue 246 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 2: comment was clearly a reaction against that. But other things 247 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 2: that are quintessential to Toryism our respect for tradition, respect 248 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 2: for institutions, respect for doing things on a piecemeal, non 249 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 2: ideological basis, and a fear a hostility to taking a 250 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 2: leap in the dark, and Brexit's was a leap in 251 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 2: the dark of the most extraordinary sort. And Brexit also 252 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 2: led the Tory Party to trash a great many traditions. 253 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 2: So you have the Daily Mail as a Brexit supporter, 254 00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 2: supporting newspaper basically calling judges, Supreme Court judges traitors who 255 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 2: had leading Brexit people proguing Parliament or trying to push 256 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 2: things through. So what you set up was a clash 257 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 2: between the will of the people as expressed through the 258 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 2: referendum and the institutions of the country, and the Tories 259 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:21,280 Speaker 2: I would have thought would be on the side of 260 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 2: the institutions rather than this sort of Roussaian idea of 261 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 2: the rule of the will of the people. But because 262 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 2: of Brexit and the referendum, they found themselves siding with 263 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 2: the will of the people, so they became a populist party. 264 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: Would Richie Sunac exist without Brexit? Could he have come 265 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: to Downing Street without Brexit having created the conditions for 266 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: his arrival. 267 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 2: Well, it's a very interesting question. Actually. I think Richie 268 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 2: sunk is one of life's winners. You know, he's a 269 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 2: quintessentially successful Tory and he combines two characteristics which are 270 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 2: very very interesting. One is that he's a very new 271 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 2: figure in that his parents were immigrants who came to 272 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 2: this country, and he came from his sort of middle 273 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 2: class background, whereby he wouldn't really naturally go to Winchester 274 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 2: Public School from a striving, upwardly mobile background. So in 275 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 2: that sense, you know, he's very different from Camera and 276 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 2: he belongs to a different England. But in another sense, 277 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 2: he is quite quintessentially Tory. He is a that right, 278 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 2: he's a social conservative, albeit a Hindu rather than Christian, 279 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 2: and he's a very crist a fiscal conservative absolutely, so 280 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 2: I think he would have risen to the top of 281 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 2: the Conservative Party in whatever circumstances, you know, because what's 282 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 2: not to like about a highly talented, highly capable person 283 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 2: who also has immigrant background. It sort of expresses the 284 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 2: capacity of the Conservative Party to absorb to change whilst 285 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 2: also remaining the same. 286 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 1: Well, and there's an irony given that part of Brexit 287 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: involved racism or at least bigotry toward migrant labor, and 288 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: that you've now ended up with the first Prime minister 289 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 1: of color. 290 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 2: Absolutely well, it's an extremely complicated question on the point 291 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 2: of view of ethnicity, I should say, because what really 292 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 2: stimulated a lot of anti immigrant sentiments, or at least 293 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 2: hesitation about free movement of people was actually white people 294 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 2: from Poland coming over in very large numbers. The classic 295 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 2: notion was the Polish plumber. And there was a significant 296 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 2: support for Brexit amongst people from the British Commonwealth from 297 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 2: let's say India, partly because they thought they were being 298 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 2: discriminated against by EU rules which made it easier for people, 299 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 2: let's say from Europe to come to settle in Britain 300 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 2: than people from India. So bringing your parents over would 301 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 2: be more difficult if you're in Indian than bringing the 302 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 2: parents of a Polish plumber who's just arrived much more recently, 303 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 2: a few years ago. So there was a significant ethnic 304 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 2: minority element in the Brexit vote, and there was a 305 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 2: particular cohort within the Conservative Party of people who were 306 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 2: members of ethnic minorities but were also very, very vigorously 307 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 2: supportive of Brexit for a complicated set of reasons, one 308 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 2: of whom was reached Y Sunak, who's always, despite being 309 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 2: a technocrat, was a Brexitier from the very beginning, much 310 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,880 Speaker 2: more of a solid, long history of support for Brexit 311 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 2: than Boris Johnson had. So it's a complicated story, and 312 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 2: a complicated story about there is a certain element within 313 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:18,439 Speaker 2: the European Union that sees Europe as a sort of 314 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 2: bastion of European Christian Greeco Roman civilization, and an element 315 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:30,040 Speaker 2: and state statism absolutely, and an element within the Conservative 316 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 2: Party that sees Brexit as the Commonwealth intensified. 317 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 1: So Labor, now you know when POLS has these double 318 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: digit polling advantages over the Tories. As we know, polls 319 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 1: are often deeply flawed and we never really know till 320 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: votes happen. What does Labor do in a moment like this? 321 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: If it wants to reposition itself to govern for more 322 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:53,919 Speaker 1: than one election cycle. 323 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 2: I think the thing that Labour does first of all 324 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 2: is wait while your opponent hangs himself, not make too 325 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:05,399 Speaker 2: much noise. Because the Tory Party is in massive internal chaos. 326 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,720 Speaker 2: We've had the Boris Johnson thing, and we have Rich 327 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 2: slightly suffering from trying to impose discipline on a fractious 328 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:15,439 Speaker 2: party but finding that increasingly difficult because of very sticky 329 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 2: levels of inflation and interest rates rising. So a very 330 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 2: rebellious Conservative party. So what you do, and I think 331 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 2: what Kistarma has done extremely well, is rule your party 332 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:29,399 Speaker 2: with an iron fist. He's doing that very well. Look sensible, 333 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 2: he's doing that very well. But also you need to 334 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:36,560 Speaker 2: bear in mind that Brexit did reveal something very very important, 335 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 2: and that was that large numbers of people in this country, 336 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,679 Speaker 2: particularly in the North, particularly in the working class, feel 337 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 2: alienated from the political establishment, and you have to reach 338 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:47,880 Speaker 2: out to those people and make it look as though 339 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 2: you care about them and in fact actually do care 340 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:54,120 Speaker 2: about them. So, for all the many, many failures of Brexit, 341 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:59,880 Speaker 2: Brexit did put the mainly white northern working class right 342 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,360 Speaker 2: the center of British politics. British politics under Tony Blair 343 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 2: and David Cameron was really a battle for the middle 344 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 2: classes and affluent and upwardly mobile people. It's becomes inspected 345 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 2: a battle for the working classes and people who feel 346 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 2: as though their lives are stuck. Sometimes they call this 347 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,879 Speaker 2: sort of the just about managing people and next election 348 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:23,119 Speaker 2: will be about that. So Starmer, you look at those people. 349 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 2: You also reposition yourself as a pro business party. You 350 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 2: have to remember that in twenty nineteen, you know, the 351 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 2: Labor Party was led by a Marxist who really really 352 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 2: hated business and that was something which in a capitalist 353 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:40,160 Speaker 2: economy is not really a way to prosperity. Soar Starmer 354 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,160 Speaker 2: is now making it very clear that he's a pro 355 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 2: business party. So move to the center that was occupied 356 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 2: so well by Blair, but also focus on the just 357 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:53,160 Speaker 2: about managing, look at the northern working classes and try 358 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 2: and appeal to those as well. So you'll get a 359 00:19:55,359 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 2: strange combination of Starmer being very pro business, emphasizing the 360 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 2: incredible mess that the Tories have made or the incredible 361 00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 2: volatility of politics in the last few years, but also 362 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 2: I think you'll probably see him waiving the Union, jack 363 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 2: the flag and talking a lot about cultural conservatives, and 364 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 2: I think. 365 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 1: On that note, Adrian, I want to take a quick 366 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,719 Speaker 1: break to hear from one of our sponsors, and then 367 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 1: we will come right back and continue our Brexit discussion. 368 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 1: I'm back with Adrian Woldridge, a Bloomberg opinion columnist and 369 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:33,400 Speaker 1: savant who is educating me about the ins and outs 370 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 1: and Brexit and what it means for Britain's economy and 371 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 1: character and future. Adrian, let's discuss the particulars of Brexit 372 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,399 Speaker 1: a little bit without getting overly wonky, but let's just 373 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 1: look at what it was meant to achieve and what 374 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 1: it's actually accomplished thus far. You know, maybe an easy 375 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,719 Speaker 1: way and has been obviously, its weakness is that it 376 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: hasn't really resulted in some of the renewed trade really 377 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 1: ships that it envisioned. But you tell me what you 378 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: think brexits strengths and weaknesses have been thus far. 379 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:11,400 Speaker 2: One of the big problems with Brexit was that the 380 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,679 Speaker 2: pro Brexit people were never very clear about what it 381 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 2: was meant to achieve, or, to put it more accurately, 382 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 2: that different factions within the pro Brexit movement wanted very 383 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 2: very different things from it. There was a globalist faction, 384 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 2: radical free market faction within the Brexit movement that said, 385 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 2: what they wanted to do was to get out of 386 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 2: the European Union because the European Union was a statist, 387 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 2: sort of anti capitalist almost project. They wanted a burst 388 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 2: free of that and turn Britain into a sort of 389 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 2: beacon of free market and you know, compete globally, focus 390 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 2: on the whole world market and make sure that you 391 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:52,560 Speaker 2: liberated business, reduced regulations in ways that you couldn't do 392 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,160 Speaker 2: while you were in the European Union, and out compete 393 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 2: the European Union on the global stage. So that was 394 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 2: the free market wing of the Brexit case. But then 395 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 2: there were a lot of other people who wanted exactly 396 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 2: the opposite. They wanted protection from an increasingly what they 397 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 2: saw as an increasingly hostile, difficult, frightening world. They were 398 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 2: like hobbits who wanted to burrow in their hobbit holes 399 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,119 Speaker 2: and not deal with the rest of the world. So 400 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 2: they wanted tighter control in immigration. Many of them wanted 401 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 2: a much more top down style of capitalism state companies, 402 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 2: and so these people marched together, but behind completely different 403 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,360 Speaker 2: visions of what Brexit was about. And what you've had 404 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 2: is these two visions repeatedly clashing with each other and 405 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 2: a resulting mess. And Boris Johnson, of course, given his nature, 406 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,439 Speaker 2: tried to have it both ways, tried to have his 407 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 2: cake and eat it by talking about global Brexit becoming 408 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 2: a much more globally oriented country whilst at the same 409 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 2: time talking about increasing public spending and building up certain 410 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,640 Speaker 2: barriers to free competition at home. So these two things 411 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 2: had never been resolved and you've had policy confusions because 412 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,400 Speaker 2: of that. But also it's been very very very difficult 413 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 2: to test whether Brexit is being successful or whether it's 414 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 2: failing because you don't know what it's trying to do. 415 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:09,960 Speaker 1: Well, wasn't I mean, the idea at its core was 416 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 1: you would unshackle the British economy from rules and regulations 417 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:19,159 Speaker 1: that these statists Europeans were trying to impose, and it 418 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: would cause entrepreneurial growth and new investment, and you could 419 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:26,920 Speaker 1: find trade relations elsewhere, specifically with the United States, that 420 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: somehow this huge ball of trade that was in England's 421 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 1: relationship with the EU would get filled by a deeper 422 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:38,120 Speaker 1: relationship with the US, and that hasn't happened absolutely. 423 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 2: I mean, one of the many problems with the Brexit 424 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 2: promise was that the Brexiteers thought the Brexit would be 425 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 2: quite easy, and they thought that negotiating a free trade 426 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,199 Speaker 2: deal with the United States would be quite easy. And 427 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 2: to believe that you have to know very very little 428 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 2: about trade deals with the United States, because it's one 429 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,120 Speaker 2: of the most difficult things you can possibly do, negotiated 430 00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,119 Speaker 2: free trade deal with a very large and law or 431 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,159 Speaker 2: obsessed power across the Atlantic. But what's gone wrong with 432 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 2: all of this, apart from the fact that we didn't 433 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,439 Speaker 2: know what we were doing in the first place, was 434 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 2: many things. But we have seen the economy take a 435 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,719 Speaker 2: big hit as a result of that. Now there are 436 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 2: very many different calculations as to how big that hit is. 437 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 2: I think the Bloomberg estimate is about four percent of 438 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 2: GDP or one hundred billion pounds in cost. 439 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,400 Speaker 1: Of what is the world's sixth largest economy, what. 440 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 2: The economy would be had we not gone in for Brexit. Now, 441 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:36,040 Speaker 2: it's obviously very difficult to calculate because we've had the pandemic, 442 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 2: which had a huge impact on economies all around the world. 443 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 2: But you can see various things going on, you know, 444 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 2: such as the fact that Britain has the lowest rate 445 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 2: of growth in the G seven. I think at the 446 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,880 Speaker 2: moment this lagging behind those countries, such as the fact 447 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 2: that you can see trade with European countries going down 448 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 2: but not being compensated for by let's say, a US 449 00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 2: trade deal. And you can also if you talk to 450 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 2: business people who deal you know, are in the business 451 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 2: of trade, they will complain all the time about an 452 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 2: extraordinary amount of bureaucracy that didn't exist before, and about 453 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 2: delays at Dover and at various other ports because everything 454 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 2: has to be checked which didn't have to be checked before. 455 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,120 Speaker 1: But it's actually gotten harder to do business than easier. 456 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 2: Much harder to do business. I don't think it's got 457 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,359 Speaker 2: easier anywhere, but it's got very much harder. With the 458 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,920 Speaker 2: Obinan Union, which is of course a massive, massive market. 459 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 2: Now pro Brexit people would say, well, we've got these 460 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 2: seventy odd trade deals which have been negotiated with an 461 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 2: incredible speed with all sorts of countries all around the world. 462 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 2: But most of these trade deals are overwhelmingly just photocopied 463 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,280 Speaker 2: versions of the EU's pre existing trade deals. We've just 464 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 2: put them in our own name rather than in the 465 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,119 Speaker 2: name of the EU. In the one big bowl of 466 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 2: cherries which we were constantly offered by the Brexit people 467 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 2: was the trade deal with the United States. That's not 468 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 2: happened and will take a great deal of time. But 469 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,200 Speaker 2: the other thing I think it's very important to emphasize 470 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 2: is the opportunity costs of Brexits. You know, we spent 471 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 2: the last seven years at war with ourselves or with 472 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:12,360 Speaker 2: each other about Brexits, and we devoted an enormous amount 473 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 2: of political and intellectual energy to this fight, and that 474 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,400 Speaker 2: created a very unstable politics. So you had this succession 475 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,879 Speaker 2: of prime ministers, three prime ministers in one year. For example, 476 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 2: when you change prime ministers, you change all the rest 477 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 2: of the lower people. You know, they get moved around 478 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 2: the new prime ministers to bring in their favorites. So 479 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 2: you know, you had a revolving door in every single department, 480 00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 2: and you had not enough intellectual bandwidth leftover to deal 481 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,400 Speaker 2: with incredibly pressing problems such as the obesity epidemic, which 482 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,719 Speaker 2: is worse in Britain than any other European country, and 483 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 2: we're second rearally only to the United States. 484 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 1: The housing market. The housing market's getting rocked by you know, 485 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:55,360 Speaker 1: the worst cost of living crisis in a generation. And inflation, 486 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,640 Speaker 1: which of the inflation rates the highest in Europe eight 487 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:00,160 Speaker 1: point seven percent right now. 488 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, although those are relatively recent that they may have 489 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 2: a lot to do with the way that the COVID 490 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 2: epidemic has played out in Britain. But the most important 491 00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,959 Speaker 2: one was productivity. Britain has had a dismal productivity record 492 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 2: all the way through this century, and you know, we 493 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 2: should have been focusing above all on the productivity problem, 494 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,720 Speaker 2: and there's been virtually no focus on that. So all 495 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 2: of this stuff that wasn't done because we were tearing 496 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 2: each other apart over Brexit. Well, as you can say, 497 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 2: I think it's been a disaster for Britain, but I 498 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:31,680 Speaker 2: should add, as a caveat to the fact that it's 499 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 2: been a disaster for Britain, that it wasn't as though 500 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,879 Speaker 2: there weren't problems with the European Union. It wasn't as 501 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,199 Speaker 2: though the European Union couldn't have been more accommodating to 502 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 2: Britain's worries about the European Union and the way that 503 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 2: it operated, not least over the migration point, because Europe 504 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 2: decided to both deepen and broaden at the same time, 505 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 2: increasing or reinforcing the rights that European citizens had, whilst 506 00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:00,080 Speaker 2: at the same time taking in very large numbers of 507 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 2: of poorer countries or people from poorer countries. And the 508 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,480 Speaker 2: people who bought the brunt of that immigration surge which 509 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,639 Speaker 2: came after Eastern European countries were brought into Europe was Britain, 510 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,479 Speaker 2: partly because of the English language and partly because of 511 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 2: a very liberal labor market. 512 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 1: And opportunities in need. You know, there were jobs for there. 513 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,640 Speaker 2: Many more opportunities. If you want a job in Germany, 514 00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:23,640 Speaker 2: you have to speak German, you have to have all 515 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,879 Speaker 2: sorts of vocational qualifications, you have to go through a 516 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 2: big rigmarole, which you don't in Britain. Britain's much closer 517 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 2: to the United States, so we did have a surge 518 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 2: in immigration which led to a lot of unease. I 519 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,960 Speaker 2: remember going to during the endless Brexit about going to 520 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 2: a constituency in Birmingham, a constituency of an MP called 521 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 2: Khalid Mahmood, and he was sitting in the room and 522 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 2: we were talking about Brexit and the audience was overwhelmingly 523 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 2: consisted of people from Bangladesh and the Indian subcontinent, and 524 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 2: they were overwhelmingly pro Brexit and hostile to what they 525 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:00,800 Speaker 2: saw as people coming from you and you've been taking 526 00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 2: their jobs. So it was a shock to the system. 527 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,720 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, but you know, this dynamic exists in the 528 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 1: United States as well, with Mexican and Central American laborers 529 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 1: coming over the southern border the United States for jobs. 530 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 1: Those are jobs that employers in the Southern States need 531 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 1: them for, and rather than work this out in a 532 00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:22,480 Speaker 1: humane and rational way, it becomes sensationalized as a race invasion. 533 00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,480 Speaker 1: And I think the issue all of us in the 534 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,960 Speaker 1: world we're in right now is how do you accommodate 535 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 1: people's understandable fears of outsiders quote unquote while not letting 536 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 1: that devolve into outright racism or protectionism or a simple 537 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 1: slamming of a border being shut. And I think that 538 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 1: Brexit was this door being brought down rather than a 539 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:48,400 Speaker 1: search for more sophisticated solution. 540 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 2: Well, but there is an important distinction between Britain and 541 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,280 Speaker 2: the United States. The United States has control over its borders. 542 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 2: It may not be able to exercise that control as 543 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:57,920 Speaker 2: well as it would like, but it has legal control 544 00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 2: over its borders. The point about the European Union is 545 00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,440 Speaker 2: that you do not have control over your borders if 546 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 2: you're a member of the European Union. Other countries have 547 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,040 Speaker 2: a right. Citizens of other countries have a right to 548 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,160 Speaker 2: move to your country, and that was seen as a 549 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:14,800 Speaker 2: step too far. So the great slogan Ofxit, take back control, 550 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 2: you know, that we should be able to control our 551 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 2: borders was a very powerful one, and it is the 552 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 2: case that I can't think of any example of nation 553 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:29,160 Speaker 2: states in history willingly saying that they're giving up control 554 00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 2: of who lives within their borders. That's a big reduction 555 00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 2: of the notion of sovereignty. Now, the British were the 556 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 2: people who felt the impact of free movement first because 557 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,520 Speaker 2: of the attractiveness of the country. But still this very 558 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,640 Speaker 2: notion of free movement, which is central to the way 559 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 2: that the European Union thinks about itself, I think, is 560 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:48,760 Speaker 2: one that will create a lot of friction. So I 561 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 2: do think that Brexit was a disaster, and we're living 562 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,720 Speaker 2: through the disaster. But I wish that we've been able 563 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,560 Speaker 2: to negotiate a relationship with the EU, which saw some 564 00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 2: flexibility on the EU's part to understand that free movements 565 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,960 Speaker 2: of people legal free movements of people is different from 566 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,560 Speaker 2: free movements of goods or free movements of currency. 567 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:12,840 Speaker 1: Workers in Britain have also been on strike in large 568 00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 1: waves for the first sort of big strikes, the likes 569 00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,320 Speaker 1: of which we haven't really seen since maybe the nineteen eighties. 570 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 1: Nurses and teachers are on strike and have been marching 571 00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 1: in the UK and one of the arguments, primarily I 572 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 1: think Nigel Faraj's argument, was that there would be a 573 00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 1: NHS dividend from Brexit. If you left Brexit, the economy 574 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,040 Speaker 1: would hum along so well and there would be such 575 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:40,600 Speaker 1: productivity that the tax base would expand enough that you 576 00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 1: could give a big lump sum payment to the NHS, 577 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,280 Speaker 1: the National Health Service in the UK, and bail out 578 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 1: a system that's creaking, and that hasn't happened either, and 579 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,680 Speaker 1: workers are striking. How does that get resolved? 580 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:56,959 Speaker 2: Well? Sure, I mean, one of the arguments was that 581 00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 2: all the money that was being sent off to Europe, 582 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,240 Speaker 2: because we were in net tributors to Europe, could be 583 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 2: kept in our own hands and then spent on the NHS, 584 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 2: and that was a big part of the appeal of 585 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,680 Speaker 2: the idea we won't give all those europe and bureaucrats 586 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 2: this money, We'll spend it on the NHS. And in fact, 587 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 2: since Brexits, the NHS has got worse, the cues have 588 00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 2: got longer. Some of that is Brexit related in the 589 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,240 Speaker 2: sense that it's harder to bring in workers from Europe, 590 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:25,120 Speaker 2: although we've compensated for that to some extent by bringing 591 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,680 Speaker 2: in workers from outside Europe. But the biggest problem with 592 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:32,240 Speaker 2: the NHS is one of productivity. So it's this opportunity 593 00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,240 Speaker 2: cost of not focusing on Britain's productivity problem that is 594 00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,000 Speaker 2: really driving it all. Because you can't have a good, 595 00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:42,520 Speaker 2: well functioning welfare state if you don't have an economy 596 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:44,960 Speaker 2: that's producing the dividends to pay for that. The other 597 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 2: thing with strikes, it's essentially a result of a pulse 598 00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:53,080 Speaker 2: of inflation which has gone through the world as a 599 00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:57,000 Speaker 2: result of COVID. Really Britain has been harder hit. It 600 00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,440 Speaker 2: may have been marginally affected by brext I don't think 601 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 2: it's principally Brexit fold but when you have inflation going through, 602 00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:08,200 Speaker 2: public sector workers have very little way of compensating for inflation, 603 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:10,840 Speaker 2: and you have a very inflexible wage system in the 604 00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 2: public sector. So what they do is they get paid 605 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:16,040 Speaker 2: as well as collectively under national collective bargaining rights, and 606 00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 2: then they go on strike. And in general, we're moving 607 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,280 Speaker 2: towards a higher inflation, higher interest rate worlds, and I 608 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,440 Speaker 2: think that that would be a problem right across Europe 609 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 2: and to some extent in the United States, although you're 610 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,080 Speaker 2: doing better at bringing your inflation under control then than 611 00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 2: we are, so I think Brexit the effect was felt 612 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 2: much more in terms of the lower trade, the complexity 613 00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:40,680 Speaker 2: of doing business, and the opportunity costs of dealing with 614 00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,120 Speaker 2: productivity issues than it was in terms of this recent 615 00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:46,280 Speaker 2: wave of strikes and inflation. 616 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 1: Adrian, I'm going we're going to stop again for a 617 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,560 Speaker 1: brief pause so we can hear from a sponsor, and 618 00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:54,280 Speaker 1: then we will come right back to this interesting discussion. 619 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,600 Speaker 1: I'm back with Adrian Woldridge, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. 620 00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,240 Speaker 1: We are looking at the collision between Britain and Brexit 621 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:10,399 Speaker 1: and the political and economic fallout that has attended that. 622 00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 1: You know, the British economy, Adrian, has lagged its G 623 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 1: seven counterparts in post COVID economic recovery. It has a 624 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:22,920 Speaker 1: smaller workforce than before the COVID lockdowns began, while the 625 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,960 Speaker 1: tax burden in the UK is the biggest since World 626 00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:30,920 Speaker 1: War II. Public services are perilously underfunded, and foreign direct 627 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 1: investment in the UK has slowed down. France recently overtook 628 00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 1: Britain as a pet destination for foreign direct investment projects 629 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,400 Speaker 1: for the first time in twenty years. And all of 630 00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 1: these data points suggest to me that the UK is 631 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,920 Speaker 1: in economic peril. And I think one of the burdens 632 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:52,360 Speaker 1: that's been on Sunak as the first rational Tory to 633 00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:56,560 Speaker 1: sit in Downing Street since Forrest started his charade is 634 00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:00,200 Speaker 1: how do you make the UK competitive again? And if 635 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,120 Speaker 1: they were looking to the United States as a trading 636 00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,799 Speaker 1: partner to do that, the United States has gone in 637 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:08,000 Speaker 1: the other direction. The United States is embracing industrial policy 638 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:11,759 Speaker 1: in certain ways. So what does the UK do in 639 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:17,480 Speaker 1: a post Brexit world where it's facing these existential economic challenges. 640 00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,760 Speaker 2: Well, I think your list of the problems that Britain 641 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:24,160 Speaker 2: faces is a very good, comprehensive list, and it's one 642 00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,120 Speaker 2: that worries me very deeply. I think that I've not 643 00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:29,279 Speaker 2: been so pessimistic about the state of Britain since the 644 00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:33,040 Speaker 2: late nineteen seventies. It's truly dismal at the moment. And 645 00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,360 Speaker 2: it's dismal partly because in the late nineteen seventies we 646 00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,680 Speaker 2: at least had a coherent set of policies which could 647 00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 2: come in and address those problems. Now we don't really 648 00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:44,840 Speaker 2: seem to have a coherent set of policies. We don't 649 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,799 Speaker 2: know whether more Thatcherism is the right way forward or 650 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,840 Speaker 2: more Dirigism is the right way forward. We have a 651 00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,279 Speaker 2: policy paralysis or certainly a policy confusion going on at 652 00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,200 Speaker 2: the moment. The most important thing to do, and the 653 00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,799 Speaker 2: thing that Richie is most concerned about, is bringing down 654 00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:03,840 Speaker 2: in because it's inflation that's driving the wave of strikes, 655 00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,160 Speaker 2: which is reducing the real living standards of people most directly, 656 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 2: and is causing a massive mortgage crunch. But the trouble 657 00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:14,840 Speaker 2: is we keep pushing and inflation keeps staying uncomfortably high, 658 00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:17,280 Speaker 2: you know, and that's creating a great deal of panic. 659 00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:21,799 Speaker 2: So unless they get inflation down, nothing else can really 660 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,680 Speaker 2: be done. There's the issue of the boats, which is 661 00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 2: creating a lot of disquiet. But above all. 662 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,239 Speaker 1: The boat's meaning migrants trying to cross to seek asylum 663 00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:31,960 Speaker 1: or residency in the UK. 664 00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,839 Speaker 2: And that leads to two sets of problems. One is 665 00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,440 Speaker 2: the boat's sink and people die, and another is people 666 00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,839 Speaker 2: come here and then you have a problem of housing them. 667 00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:43,040 Speaker 2: And a lot of the places where the house are 668 00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:46,560 Speaker 2: in seaside communities which are already quite volatile and quite poor, 669 00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,400 Speaker 2: which drove a lot of Brexit anger actually, and that 670 00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:53,080 Speaker 2: is coming back. But the most worrying problem about Britain 671 00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 2: is this underlying low productivity. There's no quick fix to that. 672 00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 2: We should have been focusing on that for the last 673 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,640 Speaker 2: twenty years or more, and certainly for the last ten 674 00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,200 Speaker 2: years we've been, particularly the Tory Party has been obsessed 675 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:09,040 Speaker 2: by Brexit. We have another potentially serious problem coming ahead, 676 00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:12,760 Speaker 2: which is the Labor Party wins the election but only 677 00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:15,960 Speaker 2: just and is dependent, let's say, on Scottish Nationalist votes 678 00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:20,239 Speaker 2: or on Liberal Democrat votes, and then you not only 679 00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,200 Speaker 2: continue with unstable government. 680 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,200 Speaker 1: And an inability to govern to deliver policy, but. 681 00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:29,879 Speaker 2: Also what the Scott's nationalists will demand is another referendum 682 00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,719 Speaker 2: which will make even more instability. And what the Liberal 683 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,800 Speaker 2: Democrats will demand, I should think will be big changes 684 00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,480 Speaker 2: to the voting system. So again, whatever you think of 685 00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:43,120 Speaker 2: the voting system, that's a big distraction from these fundamental questions. 686 00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,440 Speaker 2: So what Britain really needs is a sensible party with 687 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:53,920 Speaker 2: a solid majority, focused on fundamental, underlying economic issues. So 688 00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:56,400 Speaker 2: let's hope Starmer, who is it, I think a sensible 689 00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,719 Speaker 2: man gets a serious majority in the next selection, or 690 00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,040 Speaker 2: by some miracle, the Tories get a serious majority in 691 00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:06,680 Speaker 2: the next selection because we've had a long, long period 692 00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:07,960 Speaker 2: of distraction. 693 00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:11,120 Speaker 1: And a Labor party that understands how to take advantage 694 00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:14,440 Speaker 1: in the most fulsome way of this moment in terms 695 00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:18,720 Speaker 1: of perhaps recreating its own identity and thinking differently about 696 00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,719 Speaker 1: the role businesses play in a productive economy. 697 00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:24,719 Speaker 2: Absolutely, we have to remember, and it's terrifying to do 698 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,120 Speaker 2: so that in twenty nineteen Britain faced a choice between 699 00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,840 Speaker 2: the Tory Party led by Boris Johnson and a Labor 700 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,640 Speaker 2: Party led by Jeremy Corbyn, one of whom was a 701 00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:37,120 Speaker 2: complete Mountebank and sort of Flashman character, and the other 702 00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:40,120 Speaker 2: of whom was essentially a Marxist whose reaction to the 703 00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:43,880 Speaker 2: murder to the poisoning of two Russians in Salisbury was 704 00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:45,720 Speaker 2: to say, well, let's hand it over to the FSB, 705 00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,360 Speaker 2: because they've got the equipment to try and see whether 706 00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,880 Speaker 2: this was a murder or not. I mean, it's extraordinary 707 00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,160 Speaker 2: that we should have had those two people as the 708 00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,840 Speaker 2: only choice. Whatever, you know, we can say about the 709 00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:57,560 Speaker 2: state of Britain. Now at least we'll have a choice 710 00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:00,480 Speaker 2: in the next selection between two sensible parties leaders. 711 00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,360 Speaker 1: You know, the other elephant in the room is China. 712 00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:07,680 Speaker 1: And back when Europe could squabble about the best way 713 00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,720 Speaker 1: to organize its own economies, in the United States offered 714 00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:15,680 Speaker 1: another model for how to organize an economy. Collectively, plus Japan, 715 00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:19,600 Speaker 1: those were the world leading economies. And over the last 716 00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:23,319 Speaker 1: thirty years China has now to great effect become an 717 00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:28,400 Speaker 1: economic powerhouse. And it's done that through a civil service, 718 00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:34,000 Speaker 1: married to an entrepreneurial class, married to unforgiving statism. And 719 00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,400 Speaker 1: to compete with China, the US is using the power 720 00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,000 Speaker 1: of the public purse and the federal government to try 721 00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:44,640 Speaker 1: to jumpstart green initiatives to become stronger players in the 722 00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:49,000 Speaker 1: ev market. This is not classic free market capitalism. This 723 00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:53,640 Speaker 1: is public private partnerships and soon acts being called on 724 00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,000 Speaker 1: to compete as well, and to find ways to get 725 00:39:56,040 --> 00:40:00,040 Speaker 1: the government purse behind economic growth. You know, Brexit, it 726 00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:06,560 Speaker 1: was sort of a referendum against England uniting with the 727 00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:10,720 Speaker 1: rest of Europe to become a stronger economic player against 728 00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,319 Speaker 1: China and the US. Does that have to be rethought now? 729 00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:19,040 Speaker 1: Does that sort of philosophical dispensation have to be reconsidered? 730 00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:22,960 Speaker 1: Given what China means in the world is an economic powerhouse, 731 00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:24,360 Speaker 1: and some of the things that are happening in the 732 00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:25,200 Speaker 1: US right now. 733 00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,120 Speaker 2: I think it should be rethought, but I don't think 734 00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:28,920 Speaker 2: it can be rethought in the sense I don't think 735 00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,160 Speaker 2: we can really any time in the near future revisit Brexit. 736 00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:36,640 Speaker 2: And what Brexit was was not only mismanaged, but incredibly mistimed. 737 00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:38,920 Speaker 2: Brexit took place at a time when the world was 738 00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:43,200 Speaker 2: very visibly fragmenting into big regional blocks, you know, the 739 00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:47,520 Speaker 2: China centric block, the US centric bloc, and the European bloc, 740 00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:49,879 Speaker 2: and Britain decided to sort of go it alone, and 741 00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:53,239 Speaker 2: the globalists amongst the Brexits decided to go for a 742 00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,680 Speaker 2: global market at a time when the global market was 743 00:40:55,800 --> 00:41:00,359 Speaker 2: being carved up. So Britain threatens to be ignored I 744 00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,400 Speaker 2: think to some extent, it threatens to be ignored by America, 745 00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,520 Speaker 2: which has got big fish to fry in the form 746 00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,440 Speaker 2: of its competition with China. It threatens to be ignored 747 00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:13,040 Speaker 2: by the European Union, which is constantly in the business 748 00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:16,320 Speaker 2: of trying to shore up its own sort of regime 749 00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,280 Speaker 2: of regulations, which it will do with less and less 750 00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:22,960 Speaker 2: thought about Britain. And it threatens to be looking for 751 00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:26,440 Speaker 2: trade deals with what say Mongolia, I mean, small economy 752 00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:30,280 Speaker 2: is there. So it was a very ill timed action. Also, 753 00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,560 Speaker 2: there's the bigger question of what we do about this 754 00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:36,960 Speaker 2: change in the nature of capitalism, more national champions, more protectionism, 755 00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:40,560 Speaker 2: more sort of liberal policies, and that's again very difficult 756 00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,200 Speaker 2: for Britain. On the one hand, you have Sunak who 757 00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:46,680 Speaker 2: wants to keep going with that right policies broadly and 758 00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:49,440 Speaker 2: wants to have a trading relationship with the United States 759 00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:51,839 Speaker 2: as if the United States was what it was under 760 00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,359 Speaker 2: Reagan rather than what it is now. So that's coming 761 00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:57,800 Speaker 2: up against closed doors. But then you have the Labor 762 00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:01,080 Speaker 2: Party looking at bidnomics and saying, yeah, let's have some 763 00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,839 Speaker 2: of that ourselves. So the Labor Party wants to create 764 00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:07,040 Speaker 2: a national champion energy company. It wants to have a 765 00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,480 Speaker 2: green transition, semiconductors, all of that sort of stuff, and 766 00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:12,279 Speaker 2: he must have a green transition, in which up until 767 00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:14,239 Speaker 2: only the other day they were talking about spending thirty 768 00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:17,600 Speaker 2: billion pounds a year in green subsidies. Now they're thinking, 769 00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:21,040 Speaker 2: oh my god, we've got high interest rate environment, we 770 00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,560 Speaker 2: can't possibly afford this, We've got a business community that's 771 00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:28,200 Speaker 2: very nervous, and so they're scaling back these suggestions completely, 772 00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:31,319 Speaker 2: pulling them right back. So one of the things that 773 00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,200 Speaker 2: I think might well happen to Britain is it will 774 00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:35,640 Speaker 2: be caught in the headlights, as it were. America will 775 00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:37,600 Speaker 2: go its way, China will go its way, Europe will 776 00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:40,239 Speaker 2: go its way, and Britain will be paralyzed between all 777 00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,800 Speaker 2: these various options and won't really know what its economic 778 00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:46,200 Speaker 2: identity is in this very sort of dynamically changing world. 779 00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:49,600 Speaker 1: Who would have thunk it? Who would have thunk it? Indeed, 780 00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:53,160 Speaker 1: Adrian Crash course is always about learning moments. What have 781 00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,480 Speaker 1: you learned about Britain and Braxit that you didn't know 782 00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:59,520 Speaker 1: before voters came out in favor of it in twenty sixteen. 783 00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:06,360 Speaker 2: I've learnt that the question of dignity is much more 784 00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:09,480 Speaker 2: important as a political motive than they had ever calculated. 785 00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:13,759 Speaker 2: I believe that Britain wouldn't vote for Brexit, and I 786 00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:15,799 Speaker 2: believe it wouldn't vote for Brexit because it was a 787 00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,960 Speaker 2: half baked idea that was likely to have deleterious consequences 788 00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:23,080 Speaker 2: for the British economy. But large numbers of people voted 789 00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:25,319 Speaker 2: for it, not because I think they thought it would 790 00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:29,680 Speaker 2: be economically beneficial, but because their dignity was wounded by 791 00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:33,600 Speaker 2: the sort of Blair Cameron regime which they'd seen before, 792 00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,879 Speaker 2: which was socially very liberal, economically very liberal, and left 793 00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:40,560 Speaker 2: large numbers of people behind. And the sort of calculus 794 00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:42,960 Speaker 2: that the Blair and Cameron had was that, well, some 795 00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,440 Speaker 2: junction of the country would be left behind, but you 796 00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:49,719 Speaker 2: could always compensate for that with more welfare payments and 797 00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:53,520 Speaker 2: more economic transfers, essentially, And what we learned was that 798 00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:56,760 Speaker 2: people can get economic transfers, they can be getting along 799 00:43:56,920 --> 00:44:00,360 Speaker 2: in a material sense, you know, tolerably well, but that 800 00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:03,000 Speaker 2: if they don't have a sense of control of their lives, 801 00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,360 Speaker 2: if they don't have any jobs, if they feel as 802 00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:09,000 Speaker 2: though they're being marginalized, by the broader culture, which in 803 00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:12,200 Speaker 2: this country is incredibly London based. They feel that that 804 00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:15,800 Speaker 2: dignity is injured, and when they feel that dignity is injured, 805 00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,320 Speaker 2: they lash out against the system. 806 00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,760 Speaker 1: On that happy note, Adrian, we've run out of time. 807 00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:24,000 Speaker 1: Thanks thanks for getting together with us today. 808 00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:25,560 Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you very much. 809 00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:29,360 Speaker 1: Adrian Woldridge can be found online at Bloomberg Opinion, on 810 00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:34,799 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal and on Twitter at ad Woldridge. Here 811 00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:38,880 Speaker 1: at crash Course, we believe that collisions can be messy, impressive, challenging, 812 00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:44,320 Speaker 1: surprising and always instructive. In today's crash Course, I learned 813 00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,359 Speaker 1: that even if you're one of the most robust economies 814 00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,120 Speaker 1: in the world, as England is, and even if you 815 00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:55,200 Speaker 1: once oversaw the biggest empire in world history, bad judgment, 816 00:44:55,760 --> 00:45:01,080 Speaker 1: biases and recklessness can make all of that unw almost 817 00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:02,960 Speaker 1: in the blink of an eye, or at least in 818 00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:06,600 Speaker 1: the blink of a Brexit. What did you learn? We'd 819 00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:08,600 Speaker 1: love to hear from you. You can tweet at the 820 00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:13,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion handle at Opinion or me at Tim O'Brien 821 00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:17,520 Speaker 1: using the hashtag Bloomberg crash Course. You can also subscribe 822 00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:20,439 Speaker 1: to our show wherever you're listening right now and leave 823 00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:22,919 Speaker 1: us a review. It helps more people find the show. 824 00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:28,280 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by the indispensable Anna Maserakas, Moses 825 00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:32,680 Speaker 1: an Dam and Me. Our supervising producer is Magnus Hendrickson, 826 00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:36,240 Speaker 1: and we had editing help from Sage Bauman, Katie Boyce, 827 00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:41,600 Speaker 1: Jeff Grocott, Mike Nitza, and Christine Van den Bilart. Blake 828 00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:45,040 Speaker 1: Maples does our sound engineering and our original theme song 829 00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:49,120 Speaker 1: was composed by Luis Gara. I'm Tim O'Brien. We'll be 830 00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:51,240 Speaker 1: back next week with another crash course