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Review the 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:40.680 disclosures and disclaimers at CBO dot com slash us underscore disclaimers. 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:44.800 Welcome in episode seventy three What's Right, Nick Right, the 0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:48.040 podcast and YouTube show, It is our Week three NFL 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:49.239 gambling show and. 0:00:51.040 --> 0:00:51.440 Demons. 0:00:51.520 --> 0:00:52.440 I'm a little stressed out. 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:54.240 Yeah, i'd be too. 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:55.000 What does that mean? 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:56.520 What does that mean? 0:00:56.680 --> 0:00:59.160 I'd be stressed out if if what I had your 0:00:59.240 --> 0:00:59.960 betting career. 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:04.560 Okay, okay, a guy's allowed to have a couple of 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:09.600 rough weeks. Week one, I got a little unlucky. 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:12.360 Went two and three. Week two, let's show it to you. 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:15.360 I can't say I got unlucky because I did get 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:19.880 unlucky on the lock in Baltimore. I'm still angry about that. 0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:23.200 But I got very lucky to cover Arizona. But those 0:01:23.240 --> 0:01:26.800 other two misses green Bay minus ten was good, Arizona 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:28.960 plus five and a half. I got lucky my lock 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:30.760 of the week Baltimore minus three and a half. I 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:34.119 still can't believe Miami had that comeback. But those other 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:36.680 two on the right hand column, Cincinnati minus seven, Minniso 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:39.920 plus threo just bad picks. They're just bad picks. So 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:44.720 we're shaking up the snow globe this morning. We're changing 0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:47.240 the order of the podcast. We're giving you the picks 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:50.480 right off the top. Our brain trust. Gabe and Matt 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:52.720 were like, Nick, if you do the picture off the top, 0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:54.480 why are people going to stick around for the rest 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:57.280 of the show, because the lock's coming later the you 0:01:57.320 --> 0:02:01.000 know the offer from demons Or Survived pick, which thankfully 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:04.200 Survivor's been brutal this year. We've given out two winners 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:07.360 in Survivor. We gave out Baltimore and Green Bay first 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:09.720 two weeks. So we're still alive in Survivor, and I 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:12.000 hope someone's jotting down to make sure we can't give 0:02:12.000 --> 0:02:14.880 out you know, team a second time. But I made 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:19.600 some I went back and rewatched our episode Week two 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:26.200 Gambling Show. I made some grievous strategic errors. I went 0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:28.600 against some of my principles. At one point on the 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:32.200 Cincinnati pick, I said, and I quote, I hate laying 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:34.639 a touchdown on the road, and then I did it. 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:38.040 I don't feel badly about the Baltimore pick. I don't 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:40.280 at all. And I know I said I got lucky 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:43.040 on the Arizona thing, but I said the Arizona the 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:45.360 back door cover is gonna be open for them all game. 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:47.280 They ended up turning into a backdoor win. 0:02:47.880 --> 0:02:51.919 But we're gonna We're gonna get back to what two 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:54.400 of the last three years prior to this best I 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:57.680 can tell I had, well. 0:02:57.840 --> 0:02:58.720 Not best I can tell. 0:02:58.800 --> 0:03:02.799 I know I had profitable public records above fifty five 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:05.519 percent against the spread, and one of the last three years, 0:03:05.800 --> 0:03:08.320 I think I was the best of all national sports 0:03:08.360 --> 0:03:11.720 media members. Handicapper, We're gonna get back to it. Two 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:14.960 and three weeks are not good, but they're not crushing. 0:03:15.480 --> 0:03:17.760 We aught one four and one week and we're back 0:03:17.800 --> 0:03:20.120 above five hundred. That's all we need this week is 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:21.920 a nice four and one week. 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:23.559 The way this works. 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:26.799 Is I give you five picks I give, and then 0:03:26.800 --> 0:03:29.519 I give the categories of stay away, be careful and 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:33.200 perfectly priced. Let's demonse, get right into the picks. 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:34.640 Let's do it and do it. 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:36.360 What's our first pick? 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:37.240 Nicks picks? 0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:40.960 We got Baltimore minus two and a half in New England. Okay, 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:42.280 Baltimore again. 0:03:42.480 --> 0:03:45.120 Yeah, you know what, Baltimore. 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:47.920 We picked them week one as our lock, right, it 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:50.600 did mean well, Baltimore. He picked them week two in 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:52.480 our lock. I thought they were gonna do me well. 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:53.960 Some bad shit happened. 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:56.600 I almost wanted to make Baltimore. 0:03:56.080 --> 0:03:58.360 My lock again, and I was like, you know what, 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:02.720 let's ease off on the lock part of it. But 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:07.760 Baltimore laying less than a field goal right now. The 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:11.680 injury report is terrifying. As we record this Thursday morning, 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:15.840 Baltimore's injury report is is fifteen people long. Do I 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:18.800 think mac Jones can take advantage of it? No where. 0:04:18.839 --> 0:04:22.919 The Patriots lucky to escape last week thanks to Nelson 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:24.599 agil Are making the best play of his career on 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:28.040 a terrible mac Jones pass against the bad Sewers. Yes, 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:34.280 did Lamar play a great game last week? Yes? Does 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:39.560 Belichick historically struggle a bit against the mobile quarterbacks. Cam 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:42.280 gave him trouble. Russ when he used to run around, 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:47.359 gave him trouble. Yes, Also, we don't want to overreact 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:49.800 to what happened last week. Going into the year, all 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:54.599 my study told me we're long on Baltimore, we're short 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:57.800 on New England. We're now getting the Ravens. We're laying 0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:00.280 less than a field goal. We're in it being of 0:05:00.360 --> 0:05:03.920 laying less than a field goal. I've never seen a 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:09.280 gambling week like this. Sixteen games, eight of them the 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:13.720 line is less than three. Eight of these games the 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:16.560 line is between a point and two and a half points. 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:21.000 Never seen it. There is not a single huge favorite 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:25.560 this week. Fifteen of the sixteen games the line is 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:28.039 six and a half or less. The one game that 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:30.880 is more than six and a half, it's seven. It's 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:34.600 a brutal survivor week. It's a brutal gambling week, which 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:36.640 is why we got in the lab late into the 0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:40.400 night to find our five picks. The first one is 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:42.760 Baltimore minus two and a half. 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:44.520 We're riding Baltimore again. 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:48.360 Ride the Baltimore train to death. Well, we'll see, we'll see. 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:50.680 We told you last week. See the other thing. 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:53.840 You know what frustrated me last week when I say 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:55.040 I screwed up my process. 0:05:55.240 --> 0:05:58.279 There were a few process errors. One was like, don't. 0:05:58.120 --> 0:05:58.640 Bet this game. 0:05:58.680 --> 0:05:59.839 You don't want to watch it, that's the way to. 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:06.760 Make The other one was the moment I heard those 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:13.000 dopes Victor and Matt the all in on Pittsburgh. I 0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:16.239 put New England in the be careful category. I should 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:19.080 have put them in the picks whenever. And that's you 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:21.680 know what. We'll see how this week goes. But we 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:26.039 might have to incorporate into the pre show analysis in 0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:30.200 the group chat, asking everyone what their favorite bet of 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:32.680 the week is and see if there's a little group 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:37.479 think on the square side from our producers. Okay, Baltimore 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:40.000 minus two and a half first one. 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:44.640 Next, Minnesota six point favorites at home against Detroit. 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:51.480 Sorry, Matt, I offended, Matt, Victory's not offended. Victor knows 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:55.960 we're gonna lay the six with Minnesota. Minnesota minus six. 0:06:57.080 --> 0:06:59.279 I think that's I think that's crazy. Tell me what 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:01.039 I mean. Only the only thing I'm thinking about is 0:07:01.080 --> 0:07:02.080 the fact that they're at home. 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:03.720 But I just feel tell me why you think it's 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:04.360 crazy though, I. 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:06.719 Just think the Lions don't look that bad. The Lions 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:07.600 looking good. I don't think. 0:07:07.520 --> 0:07:09.520 The offensive scored the most points in football. 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:12.880 I don't think the Vikings have have done that well. 0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:15.000 I mean, they just got their asses kicked yep. And 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:17.520 then I just I just don't see it. And then 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:18.320 six points. 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:23.520 I feel even better now. Now I don't like Minnesota 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:26.520 on the short week, I will admit that. But Minnesota 0:07:27.600 --> 0:07:31.840 coming off an embarrassing performance on national TV. We're now 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:34.760 in a one pm window where Kirk Cousins is comfortable. 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:38.680 The Lions may be riding a little too high. Justin Jefferson. 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:42.440 The Lions defense has not been able to stop anybody. 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:46.840 Justin Jefferson. Gonna have a field day. A field day. 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:51.080 This is a game Minnesota's got to have. We're not 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:53.440 at seven and a half. I feel a little differently. 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:58.920 The reason at six is because of what demands just said, 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:00.000 and so it doesn't look that good. 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:01.080 Detroit's been fun. 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:04.360 All of a sudden. If if this game we're in Detroit, 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:06.920 it would just be a pick them. Come on, come on, 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:11.640 I don't listen. I don't love laying the points. I'd 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:15.080 rather when you're in a slump gambling go with the underdogs. 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:17.920 But I don't think I'm in a slump. I don't 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:20.280 I think that I win against my principles. 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:21.760 I think you're at five hundred right now. 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:24.040 I'm actually below five hundred and four and six. 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:30.200 But against my principles on the Cincinnati bet, and aside 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:32.160 from that, I've liked the process of a lot of 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:35.000 these things. I think this is a bounce back spot 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:38.240 for Minnesota. I don't think Jared Goff is going to 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:40.080 continue to play the best football of his life all 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:44.120 year long. I think this is a game that you 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:49.400 don't see much that is nobody's nobody's locked in on. 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:53.440 Because this is a game that is seventeen to three 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:57.760 at halftime. Minister and Minister, I think Detroit's offense grinds 0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:03.679 to a bit of a halt. Temporarily, Minnesota has a nice, cool, comfortable, 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:09.240 easy victory. Justin Jefferson bounces back, Kirk Cousins bounces back 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:12.880 after his brutal game, Dalvin Cook bounces back, and Detroit 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:15.839 which is a nice story but coming off it's first 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:17.360 time favored in a couple of years. 0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:20.120 Cousin bounces back from his terrible game. 0:09:20.280 --> 0:09:22.560 Yeah, I mean Kirk Cousins is not going to be 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:26.319 awful every game. This is a get right spot. Minnesota 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:30.120 minus six, put it down, might be a Survivor pick. 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:31.360 We'll see next. 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:34.960 Ustin plus two and a half in Chicago. Yeah, you 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:38.320 really want to watch it? Justin Fields versus Davis Miller's showdown. 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:42.680 I don't and that to me In week two, I 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:44.560 was like, Oh, you don't want to watch this game. 0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:47.559 Don't bet this game. That is not how this works, right. 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:53.520 We have to be aesthetically agnostic. We can't worry about, Oh, 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:55.720 this is gonna be a fun game to watch. That's 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:58.120 why we're putting action on it. That's not how you 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:01.560 make money. You know, how you make laying less than 0:10:01.600 --> 0:10:03.359 a field goal against the Bears. 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:06.400 Sorry, I said that wrong. 0:10:06.440 --> 0:10:09.120 I'm not even laying a field goal getting points against 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:09.600 the Bears. 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:14.480 Pardon me? Why are the Bears favored over anybody? 0:10:15.480 --> 0:10:15.840 Why? 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:20.319 Someone tell me? Now, I understand getting the two and 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:24.400 a half. You'd much rather this be three, obviously, you'd 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:29.440 rather it be three. But Houston, I think they play 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:33.160 hard for Lovey Smith. Davis Mills knows if he doesn't 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:37.080 play well, his jobs on the line. The Bears clearly 0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:41.839 don't trust justin fields to throw. The offensive line is horrible, 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:46.280 just horrible, and Chicago's now the. 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:48.440 Team on the short week. 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:54.800 I simply can't pass up the value of getting points 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:58.199 playing a team that might end up with the worst 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:02.120 record in football this year. Chicago. I know they won 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:06.120 Week one in the monsoon in Trey lancemca's first start, 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:09.560 you know, since being anointed the starter. I get all that, 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:12.560 and no, I'm not excited about watching this game, but 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:16.600 I like the rookie running back for Houston. I like 0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:23.080 that Houston understands that after a let's call it frisky 0:11:23.160 --> 0:11:26.040 week one, that they let them get away from them 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:28.360 at the very end and they ended up having to 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:32.720 settle for a tie. That they were underwhelming to say 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.800 the least in Week two. But there were things in 0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:39.640 the Broncos game where defensively, just like in the Colts game, 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:44.319 you're like, oh, this Texans defense is interesting. And the 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:47.719 Texans have covered both times this year. They covered the 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:50.840 nine against Denver, they covered whatever they were against Indy 0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:53.280 I think eight. Now they're only getting two and a half, 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:56.120 but they're playing far and away the worst team that 0:11:56.160 --> 0:12:00.120 they've played. I think Chicago's far worse than Indy. I'm 0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:01.600 not gonna be watching a lot of this game. I'm 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:05.200 not gonna act like I am. But Houston getting points 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:09.199 at Chicago, we like it. Houston plus two and a 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:10.719 half next, all. 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:14.720 Right, Jacksonville plus seven playing the Chargers in La Okay. 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:18.040 We know the Chargers have no home field. We know 0:12:18.200 --> 0:12:23.760 Jacksonville is I believe deserves to be two and zero. 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:28.000 A defensive breakdown, a few drop touchdowns in week one 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:31.280 is the reason they're not two and Oh. Jacksonville looked 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:34.520 awesome on both sides of the ball in Week two 0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:38.800 against Indy the Chargers. Now, what the Chargers have going 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:42.880 for them is the extra rest they played on Thursday. Right, However, 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:49.319 I think the Jags could win this game. I'm not 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:51.360 picking them to win. I think they could win this game. 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:56.200 I definitely expect this game to be close and getting 0:12:56.280 --> 0:13:00.880 the full seven. Even if Jacksonville is getting beat by 0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:03.920 two scores. The back door is gonna be opened the 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:07.800 whole game and Jacksonville is going to keep throwing the football. 0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:11.760 Jacksonville is gonna keep throwing it to get Trevor. They 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:13.920 I think they want to build up Trevor's confidence. They 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:16.720 want to build up his numbers. So there's so many 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:23.079 scenarios where this where Jacksonville can cover this seven even 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:27.240 if they lose. Additionally, now, am I a little worried 0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:31.280 about the Chargers pass rush against the Jags offensive line? 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:36.560 I am? However, what do we know about Justin Herbert? 0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:40.800 The Chiefs just broke his ribs. Now he's limited in practice, 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:44.800 but he's expected to play. They're gonna inject him. They're 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:49.280 gonna be paying killing essentially with morphine. How about this, Demansey. 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:52.520 You don't know this. Justin Herbert got his first career 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:57.760 start because two years ago this week, Tyrod Taylor had 0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:01.280 the same injury. Before the game, the team doctor went 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.200 to inject him with a painkiller in his ribs, put 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:07.760 the needle in too far and punctured his lung. Punctured 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:13.040 Tyrod Taylor's lung the Chargers team doctor. So Herbert had 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:15.840 to make an emergency start almost beat the Chiefs that 0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:18.280 game in his first start ever. Two things, One is 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:20.920 Tyrod Taylor just sued the team for the doctor five 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:24.360 million bucks. Second of all, it's the same doctor. He 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:27.000 didn't lose his job. He's the guy that's going to 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:32.440 be injecting Justin Herbert with the same painkilling thing. But 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:36.320 here's why I think it's noteworthy. The Chargers are not 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:41.720 going to be if they have a lead late, They're 0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:44.360 not going to put Justin Herbert in jeopard They're going 0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:46.480 to be running the ball just trying to get home. 0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:51.200 I'm not worried about the Chargers being up six and 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:53.880 then throwing for a late touchdown. They want to have 0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:57.760 Justin Herbert have his few pass attempts at you know, 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:02.120 break glass in case of emergen on the Justin Herbert rocket. 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:05.200 So the idea that they're gonna blow out the Jags 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:08.040 in this context, I think it's low. They also have 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:10.560 a crummy injury report. At the moment, the Jags of 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:14.120 the cleanest injury report in football. It's the one game 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:17.440 of the weekend where you're getting a full touchdown Jacksonville 0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:20.160 plus seven. That was the other thing that screwed me 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.760 up last week. I was high on the Jags preseason. 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:26.360 I bet them in Week one they were part of 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:29.440 my picks, and I felt like I got kind of. 0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:30.280 Screwed at the end. 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:32.880 And last week, if you remember on the show, I 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:35.720 said I liked the Jags. The Jags had beaten Indy 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:39.160 in Indy or in Jacksonville like more than five straight years. 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:42.200 The Colts didn't look good in Week one. There were 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:44.640 so many signals to me to go with the Jags. 0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:48.040 But I said to myself, Ah, do I really you know? 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:50.920 Maybe I'm just wrong about the Jaguars. Do I really 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:53.320 want them to be I think I said twenty percent 0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:56.160 of my card the first two weeks of the year, 0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:57.800 and I stayed away from him when I shouldn't have. 0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:03.520 We're back on them. Jacksonville plus seven Herbert banged up Jags, 0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:04.560 have a lot of ways to cover. 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:07.280 Small chance to win. Jags plus seven. 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:11.000 Next San fran minus a pointing a half in Denver. 0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:14.480 No love for the home field Denver team and hasn't 0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:17.800 Russ always owned the forty nine ers that was. 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:21.240 In Seattle Pete Carroll the Russ part. Here's where we're 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:32.200 at on this until proven otherwise. If the spread is 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:38.680 less than three and Denver is playing a good coach, 0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:45.640 Nathaniel Hackett, is a must fade blindly bet against Hackett 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:50.320 until proven Otherwise. If the other team we know is 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:52.960 a good coach and you're laying less than a field goal. 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:56.280 There is no reason. 0:16:56.320 --> 0:17:01.760 To have any faith in Nathaniel Hackett's operation, his ability 0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:07.720 to get plays in anything. The Bronco crowd is already angry. 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:10.960 The Niners, on the other hand, because the players do 0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:14.160 have a true affinity for Jimmy Garoppolo, might be playing 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:19.800 with a little more energy. I Russ looks like a 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:25.239 shell of himself. All of these things to me. I 0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:27.560 know it's in Denver, and I know it's a desperation 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:31.240 spot for Denver. I don't think Denver's very good. Their 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:38.120 coach is utterly incompetent. Russ has been terrible. And San 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:41.560 Francisco I'm laying less than a field goal. Now, I 0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:45.399 understand another road favorite that I'm betting. But a road 0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:49.240 favorite of less than three is so different than a 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:52.960 road favorite of six plus. So all those reasons also 0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:57.880 one note on Nathaniel Hackett. Ben Solack wrote a whole 0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:01.480 article about this. I referenced it on but I want 0:18:01.480 --> 0:18:05.360 to reiterate it here. There was I mean, he has 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:08.119 been in so far over his head. A lot of 0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:11.200 us are like, can he really be this bad? I mean, 0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:14.160 he did get this, get a head coaching job, he 0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:17.520 interviewed and got the job. Now, granted, keep in mind 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:22.719 they got new ownership in Denver. Rob Walton, the Walmart 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:24.880 air bought the team since he was hired, so he's 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:26.760 not gonna have loyalty to him. But it's like, how 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:30.760 did he get the job? And then Solac reminded us 0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:37.560 that Denver thought they were getting Aaron Rodgers. They hired 0:18:37.680 --> 0:18:41.919 him as Aaron Rodgers bait, so I don't think he 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:45.960 was Aaron Rodgers offensive coordinator. Then Collinsworth told us Rogers 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:49.240 loved him because they can played darts together and he 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:52.560 made him laugh, not because he was some genius schematically. 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:58.080 So January twenty seventh, Nathaniel Hackett gets hired. Denver was 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:00.520 the number one team everyone thought Rogers was going to. 0:19:00.920 --> 0:19:05.359 Two days later, Rogers resigns in Green Bay, Denver. Panics 0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:11.000 makes the rust trade. But they hired a guy because 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:16.040 they thought it would mean Rogers would go there a 0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:20.200 means to an end exactly right. Me if some up 0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:23.840 and coming podcasting platform was like, Hey, no, we're gonna 0:19:23.880 --> 0:19:28.879 make the face of our sports unit demons, and then 0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:30.840 I resigned with Fox, they're gonna be. 0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:35.520 Like, oh boy, let's see how this thing works. 0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:38.879 And everyone's like, oh man Demanse sure seems to know 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:41.520 a lot about basketball struggles with the other stuff. Why'd 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:42.760 you make him the face. 0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:45.359 Of your whole enterprise. It's like, well, I thought someone 0:19:45.440 --> 0:19:46.120 might go with him. 0:19:46.680 --> 0:19:53.280 Uh So all this is until proven. Otherwise, if you 0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:57.520 have to lay less than three points and the opposing 0:19:57.600 --> 0:19:59.960 team has what I consider to be a top ten 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:05.560 coach auto bet, San Francisco minus a point and a half. 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:09.040 So there's our five picks. We're gonna go over the 0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:12.280 other eleven games on the slate next, and then we'll 0:20:12.280 --> 0:20:14.879 give you our locks. There's the five picks. Baltimore minus 0:20:14.880 --> 0:20:18.639 one and a half, Houston getting two and a half, 0:20:19.240 --> 0:20:22.480 San Francisco minus one and a half, Jacksonville getting seven, 0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:27.040 Minnesota laying six. Only one home team on our card 0:20:27.080 --> 0:20:32.159 this week, very odd week, half the card being point 0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:33.680 point and a half, two or two and a half 0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:37.280 point lines. I've never seen it before, but we're working 0:20:37.320 --> 0:20:40.040 through it. There's our five. We'll be right back. 0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:49.840 This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable Discover the 0:20:49.880 --> 0:20:53.240 inspiring true story about Anthony Robless, who defined every expectation 0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:56.199 to become a national wrestling Champion and Unstoppable, a new 0:20:56.240 --> 0:20:59.800 original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg. 0:21:00.000 --> 0:21:03.080 Building the excitement and camaraderie of classic sports dramas and 0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:06.520 thrilling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble cast 0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:10.119 including Jerrell Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Don Cheatle, Michael Tanya, and 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:14.359 Bobby Canavali. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video. 0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:18.000 All Right, welcome back in episode seventy three. What's right, 0:21:18.080 --> 0:21:20.120 Nick Rdit's our Week three gambling show. We just gave 0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:22.480 you our five picks of the week. Now we have 0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:25.240 all the other games fall into three buckets. Stay away, 0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:28.960 be careful and perfectly priced. Stay away games or games 0:21:28.960 --> 0:21:32.000 were either the weather, the injury report, or too many 0:21:32.080 --> 0:21:35.480 questions make it something that I just don't have confidence 0:21:35.480 --> 0:21:36.680 in betting demons. 0:21:37.080 --> 0:21:39.680 Let's go through them. What our state? 0:21:39.960 --> 0:21:40.560 Do we do? 0:21:40.640 --> 0:21:40.800 These? 0:21:40.840 --> 0:21:41.840 One by one? I think we do? 0:21:41.920 --> 0:21:42.920 What's our first stay away? 0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:45.320 Cincinnati minus five at the New York Jets. 0:21:46.240 --> 0:21:48.360 This isn't a shit and Joe Burrow turning on at 0:21:48.359 --> 0:21:50.800 some point like what this isn't going to keep happening? 0:21:50.880 --> 0:21:53.800 Okay, So let's talk about this one. There you see 0:21:53.840 --> 0:21:56.960 all four games of stay Away Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New Orleans, Carolina, 0:21:57.600 --> 0:22:00.639 Vegas and Tennessee and Cinceanne the Jets. Let's start with 0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:05.840 CINCINNTAI the Jets. I think Cincinnati is gonna win the Jets. 0:22:05.880 --> 0:22:08.520 I understand they got a nice win last week. It 0:22:08.640 --> 0:22:12.000 also I don't blame Nick Chubb for what happened. But 0:22:12.040 --> 0:22:14.119 if Kareem Hunt doesn't go out of bounds, or if 0:22:14.160 --> 0:22:17.480 Nick Chubb just goes down, or if the Jet the 0:22:18.960 --> 0:22:22.800 Browns defense doesn't self immolate on back to back possessions, 0:22:23.119 --> 0:22:25.000 or if they get an on side kick, the Jets 0:22:25.040 --> 0:22:26.200 a zero and two and looked at is one of 0:22:26.240 --> 0:22:31.120 the worst teams in football right so, and I think 0:22:31.119 --> 0:22:33.359 Sinat is still going to make the playoffs. Why is 0:22:33.400 --> 0:22:37.439