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Speaker 3: Welcome in episode seventy three What's Right, Nick Right, the
Speaker 3: podcast and YouTube show, It is our Week three NFL
Speaker 3: gambling show and.
Speaker 2: Demons.
Speaker 3: I'm a little stressed out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, i'd be too.
Speaker 4: What does that mean?
Speaker 3: What does that mean?
Speaker 2: I'd be stressed out if if what I had your
Speaker 2: betting career.
Speaker 3: Okay, okay, a guy's allowed to have a couple of
Speaker 3: rough weeks. Week one, I got a little unlucky.
Speaker 4: Went two and three. Week two, let's show it to you.
Speaker 3: I can't say I got unlucky because I did get
Speaker 3: unlucky on the lock in Baltimore. I'm still angry about that.
Speaker 3: But I got very lucky to cover Arizona. But those
Speaker 3: other two misses green Bay minus ten was good, Arizona
Speaker 3: plus five and a half. I got lucky my lock
Speaker 3: of the week Baltimore minus three and a half. I
Speaker 3: still can't believe Miami had that comeback. But those other
Speaker 3: two on the right hand column, Cincinnati minus seven, Minniso
Speaker 3: plus threo just bad picks. They're just bad picks. So
Speaker 3: we're shaking up the snow globe this morning. We're changing
Speaker 3: the order of the podcast. We're giving you the picks
Speaker 3: right off the top. Our brain trust. Gabe and Matt
Speaker 3: were like, Nick, if you do the picture off the top,
Speaker 3: why are people going to stick around for the rest
Speaker 3: of the show, because the lock's coming later the you
Speaker 3: know the offer from demons Or Survived pick, which thankfully
Speaker 3: Survivor's been brutal this year. We've given out two winners
Speaker 3: in Survivor. We gave out Baltimore and Green Bay first
Speaker 3: two weeks. So we're still alive in Survivor, and I
Speaker 3: hope someone's jotting down to make sure we can't give
Speaker 3: out you know, team a second time. But I made
Speaker 3: some I went back and rewatched our episode Week two
Speaker 3: Gambling Show. I made some grievous strategic errors. I went
Speaker 3: against some of my principles. At one point on the
Speaker 3: Cincinnati pick, I said, and I quote, I hate laying
Speaker 3: a touchdown on the road, and then I did it.
Speaker 3: I don't feel badly about the Baltimore pick. I don't
Speaker 3: at all. And I know I said I got lucky
Speaker 3: on the Arizona thing, but I said the Arizona the
Speaker 3: back door cover is gonna be open for them all game.
Speaker 4: They ended up turning into a backdoor win.
Speaker 3: But we're gonna We're gonna get back to what two
Speaker 3: of the last three years prior to this best I
Speaker 3: can tell I had, well.
Speaker 4: Not best I can tell.
Speaker 3: I know I had profitable public records above fifty five
Speaker 3: percent against the spread, and one of the last three years,
Speaker 3: I think I was the best of all national sports
Speaker 3: media members. Handicapper, We're gonna get back to it. Two
Speaker 3: and three weeks are not good, but they're not crushing.
Speaker 3: We aught one four and one week and we're back
Speaker 3: above five hundred. That's all we need this week is
Speaker 3: a nice four and one week.
Speaker 4: The way this works.
Speaker 3: Is I give you five picks I give, and then
Speaker 3: I give the categories of stay away, be careful and
Speaker 3: perfectly priced. Let's demonse, get right into the picks.
Speaker 2: Let's do it and do it.
Speaker 4: What's our first pick?
Speaker 2: Nicks picks?
Speaker 5: We got Baltimore minus two and a half in New England. Okay,
Speaker 5: Baltimore again.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know what, Baltimore.
Speaker 3: We picked them week one as our lock, right, it
Speaker 3: did mean well, Baltimore. He picked them week two in
Speaker 3: our lock. I thought they were gonna do me well.
Speaker 3: Some bad shit happened.
Speaker 4: I almost wanted to make Baltimore.
Speaker 3: My lock again, and I was like, you know what,
Speaker 3: let's ease off on the lock part of it. But
Speaker 3: Baltimore laying less than a field goal right now. The
Speaker 3: injury report is terrifying. As we record this Thursday morning,
Speaker 3: Baltimore's injury report is is fifteen people long. Do I
Speaker 3: think mac Jones can take advantage of it? No where.
Speaker 3: The Patriots lucky to escape last week thanks to Nelson
Speaker 3: agil Are making the best play of his career on
Speaker 3: a terrible mac Jones pass against the bad Sewers. Yes,
Speaker 3: did Lamar play a great game last week? Yes? Does
Speaker 3: Belichick historically struggle a bit against the mobile quarterbacks. Cam
Speaker 3: gave him trouble. Russ when he used to run around,
Speaker 3: gave him trouble. Yes, Also, we don't want to overreact
Speaker 3: to what happened last week. Going into the year, all
Speaker 3: my study told me we're long on Baltimore, we're short
Speaker 3: on New England. We're now getting the Ravens. We're laying
Speaker 3: less than a field goal. We're in it being of
Speaker 3: laying less than a field goal. I've never seen a
Speaker 3: gambling week like this. Sixteen games, eight of them the
Speaker 3: line is less than three. Eight of these games the
Speaker 3: line is between a point and two and a half points.
Speaker 3: Never seen it. There is not a single huge favorite
Speaker 3: this week. Fifteen of the sixteen games the line is
Speaker 3: six and a half or less. The one game that
Speaker 3: is more than six and a half, it's seven. It's
Speaker 3: a brutal survivor week. It's a brutal gambling week, which
Speaker 3: is why we got in the lab late into the
Speaker 3: night to find our five picks. The first one is
Speaker 3: Baltimore minus two and a half.
Speaker 4: We're riding Baltimore again.
Speaker 5: Ride the Baltimore train to death. Well, we'll see, we'll see.
Speaker 4: We told you last week. See the other thing.
Speaker 3: You know what frustrated me last week when I say
Speaker 3: I screwed up my process.
Speaker 4: There were a few process errors. One was like, don't.
Speaker 3: Bet this game.
Speaker 4: You don't want to watch it, that's the way to.
Speaker 3: Make The other one was the moment I heard those
Speaker 3: dopes Victor and Matt the all in on Pittsburgh. I
Speaker 3: put New England in the be careful category. I should
Speaker 3: have put them in the picks whenever. And that's you
Speaker 3: know what. We'll see how this week goes. But we
Speaker 3: might have to incorporate into the pre show analysis in
Speaker 3: the group chat, asking everyone what their favorite bet of
Speaker 3: the week is and see if there's a little group
Speaker 3: think on the square side from our producers. Okay, Baltimore
Speaker 3: minus two and a half first one.
Speaker 5: Next, Minnesota six point favorites at home against Detroit.
Speaker 3: Sorry, Matt, I offended, Matt, Victory's not offended. Victor knows
Speaker 3: we're gonna lay the six with Minnesota. Minnesota minus six.
Speaker 2: I think that's I think that's crazy. Tell me what
Speaker 2: I mean. Only the only thing I'm thinking about is
Speaker 2: the fact that they're at home.
Speaker 3: But I just feel tell me why you think it's
Speaker 3: crazy though, I.
Speaker 2: Just think the Lions don't look that bad. The Lions
Speaker 2: looking good. I don't think.
Speaker 3: The offensive scored the most points in football.
Speaker 5: I don't think the Vikings have have done that well.
Speaker 5: I mean, they just got their asses kicked yep. And
Speaker 5: then I just I just don't see it. And then
Speaker 5: six points.
Speaker 3: I feel even better now. Now I don't like Minnesota
Speaker 3: on the short week, I will admit that. But Minnesota
Speaker 3: coming off an embarrassing performance on national TV. We're now
Speaker 3: in a one pm window where Kirk Cousins is comfortable.
Speaker 3: The Lions may be riding a little too high. Justin Jefferson.
Speaker 3: The Lions defense has not been able to stop anybody.
Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson. Gonna have a field day. A field day.
Speaker 3: This is a game Minnesota's got to have. We're not
Speaker 3: at seven and a half. I feel a little differently.
Speaker 3: The reason at six is because of what demands just said,
Speaker 3: and so it doesn't look that good.
Speaker 4: Detroit's been fun.
Speaker 3: All of a sudden. If if this game we're in Detroit,
Speaker 3: it would just be a pick them. Come on, come on,
Speaker 3: I don't listen. I don't love laying the points. I'd
Speaker 3: rather when you're in a slump gambling go with the underdogs.
Speaker 3: But I don't think I'm in a slump. I don't
Speaker 3: I think that I win against my principles.
Speaker 2: I think you're at five hundred right now.
Speaker 4: I'm actually below five hundred and four and six.
Speaker 3: But against my principles on the Cincinnati bet, and aside
Speaker 3: from that, I've liked the process of a lot of
Speaker 3: these things. I think this is a bounce back spot
Speaker 3: for Minnesota. I don't think Jared Goff is going to
Speaker 3: continue to play the best football of his life all
Speaker 3: year long. I think this is a game that you
Speaker 3: don't see much that is nobody's nobody's locked in on.
Speaker 3: Because this is a game that is seventeen to three
Speaker 3: at halftime. Minister and Minister, I think Detroit's offense grinds
Speaker 3: to a bit of a halt. Temporarily, Minnesota has a nice, cool, comfortable,
Speaker 3: easy victory. Justin Jefferson bounces back, Kirk Cousins bounces back
Speaker 3: after his brutal game, Dalvin Cook bounces back, and Detroit
Speaker 3: which is a nice story but coming off it's first
Speaker 3: time favored in a couple of years.
Speaker 2: Cousin bounces back from his terrible game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Kirk Cousins is not going to be
Speaker 3: awful every game. This is a get right spot. Minnesota
Speaker 3: minus six, put it down, might be a Survivor pick.
Speaker 4: We'll see next.
Speaker 5: Ustin plus two and a half in Chicago. Yeah, you
Speaker 5: really want to watch it? Justin Fields versus Davis Miller's showdown.
Speaker 3: I don't and that to me In week two, I
Speaker 3: was like, Oh, you don't want to watch this game.
Speaker 4: Don't bet this game. That is not how this works, right.
Speaker 3: We have to be aesthetically agnostic. We can't worry about, Oh,
Speaker 3: this is gonna be a fun game to watch. That's
Speaker 3: why we're putting action on it. That's not how you
Speaker 3: make money. You know, how you make laying less than
Speaker 3: a field goal against the Bears.
Speaker 4: Sorry, I said that wrong.
Speaker 3: I'm not even laying a field goal getting points against
Speaker 3: the Bears.
Speaker 4: Pardon me? Why are the Bears favored over anybody?
Speaker 2: Why?
Speaker 3: Someone tell me? Now, I understand getting the two and
Speaker 3: a half. You'd much rather this be three, obviously, you'd
Speaker 3: rather it be three. But Houston, I think they play
Speaker 3: hard for Lovey Smith. Davis Mills knows if he doesn't
Speaker 3: play well, his jobs on the line. The Bears clearly
Speaker 3: don't trust justin fields to throw. The offensive line is horrible,
Speaker 3: just horrible, and Chicago's now the.
Speaker 4: Team on the short week.
Speaker 3: I simply can't pass up the value of getting points
Speaker 3: playing a team that might end up with the worst
Speaker 3: record in football this year. Chicago. I know they won
Speaker 3: Week one in the monsoon in Trey lancemca's first start,
Speaker 3: you know, since being anointed the starter. I get all that,
Speaker 3: and no, I'm not excited about watching this game, but
Speaker 3: I like the rookie running back for Houston. I like
Speaker 3: that Houston understands that after a let's call it frisky
Speaker 3: week one, that they let them get away from them
Speaker 3: at the very end and they ended up having to
Speaker 3: settle for a tie. That they were underwhelming to say
Speaker 3: the least in Week two. But there were things in
Speaker 3: the Broncos game where defensively, just like in the Colts game,
Speaker 3: you're like, oh, this Texans defense is interesting. And the
Speaker 3: Texans have covered both times this year. They covered the
Speaker 3: nine against Denver, they covered whatever they were against Indy
Speaker 3: I think eight. Now they're only getting two and a half,
Speaker 3: but they're playing far and away the worst team that
Speaker 3: they've played. I think Chicago's far worse than Indy. I'm
Speaker 3: not gonna be watching a lot of this game. I'm
Speaker 3: not gonna act like I am. But Houston getting points
Speaker 3: at Chicago, we like it. Houston plus two and a
Speaker 3: half next, all.
Speaker 5: Right, Jacksonville plus seven playing the Chargers in La Okay.
Speaker 3: We know the Chargers have no home field. We know
Speaker 3: Jacksonville is I believe deserves to be two and zero.
Speaker 3: A defensive breakdown, a few drop touchdowns in week one
Speaker 3: is the reason they're not two and Oh. Jacksonville looked
Speaker 3: awesome on both sides of the ball in Week two
Speaker 3: against Indy the Chargers. Now, what the Chargers have going
Speaker 3: for them is the extra rest they played on Thursday. Right, However,
Speaker 3: I think the Jags could win this game. I'm not
Speaker 3: picking them to win. I think they could win this game.
Speaker 3: I definitely expect this game to be close and getting
Speaker 3: the full seven. Even if Jacksonville is getting beat by
Speaker 3: two scores. The back door is gonna be opened the
Speaker 3: whole game and Jacksonville is going to keep throwing the football.
Speaker 3: Jacksonville is gonna keep throwing it to get Trevor. They
Speaker 3: I think they want to build up Trevor's confidence. They
Speaker 3: want to build up his numbers. So there's so many
Speaker 3: scenarios where this where Jacksonville can cover this seven even
Speaker 3: if they lose. Additionally, now, am I a little worried
Speaker 3: about the Chargers pass rush against the Jags offensive line?
Speaker 3: I am? However, what do we know about Justin Herbert?
Speaker 3: The Chiefs just broke his ribs. Now he's limited in practice,
Speaker 3: but he's expected to play. They're gonna inject him. They're
Speaker 3: gonna be paying killing essentially with morphine. How about this, Demansey.
Speaker 3: You don't know this. Justin Herbert got his first career
Speaker 3: start because two years ago this week, Tyrod Taylor had
Speaker 3: the same injury. Before the game, the team doctor went
Speaker 3: to inject him with a painkiller in his ribs, put
Speaker 3: the needle in too far and punctured his lung. Punctured
Speaker 3: Tyrod Taylor's lung the Chargers team doctor. So Herbert had
Speaker 3: to make an emergency start almost beat the Chiefs that
Speaker 3: game in his first start ever. Two things, One is
Speaker 3: Tyrod Taylor just sued the team for the doctor five
Speaker 3: million bucks. Second of all, it's the same doctor. He
Speaker 3: didn't lose his job. He's the guy that's going to
Speaker 3: be injecting Justin Herbert with the same painkilling thing. But
Speaker 3: here's why I think it's noteworthy. The Chargers are not
Speaker 3: going to be if they have a lead late, They're
Speaker 3: not going to put Justin Herbert in jeopard They're going
Speaker 3: to be running the ball just trying to get home.
Speaker 3: I'm not worried about the Chargers being up six and
Speaker 3: then throwing for a late touchdown. They want to have
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert have his few pass attempts at you know,
Speaker 3: break glass in case of emergen on the Justin Herbert rocket.
Speaker 3: So the idea that they're gonna blow out the Jags
Speaker 3: in this context, I think it's low. They also have
Speaker 3: a crummy injury report. At the moment, the Jags of
Speaker 3: the cleanest injury report in football. It's the one game
Speaker 3: of the weekend where you're getting a full touchdown Jacksonville
Speaker 3: plus seven. That was the other thing that screwed me
Speaker 3: up last week. I was high on the Jags preseason.
Speaker 3: I bet them in Week one they were part of
Speaker 3: my picks, and I felt like I got kind of.
Speaker 4: Screwed at the end.
Speaker 3: And last week, if you remember on the show, I
Speaker 3: said I liked the Jags. The Jags had beaten Indy
Speaker 3: in Indy or in Jacksonville like more than five straight years.
Speaker 3: The Colts didn't look good in Week one. There were
Speaker 3: so many signals to me to go with the Jags.
Speaker 3: But I said to myself, Ah, do I really you know?
Speaker 3: Maybe I'm just wrong about the Jaguars. Do I really
Speaker 3: want them to be I think I said twenty percent
Speaker 3: of my card the first two weeks of the year,
Speaker 3: and I stayed away from him when I shouldn't have.
Speaker 3: We're back on them. Jacksonville plus seven Herbert banged up Jags,
Speaker 3: have a lot of ways to cover.
Speaker 4: Small chance to win. Jags plus seven.
Speaker 2: Next San fran minus a pointing a half in Denver.
Speaker 5: No love for the home field Denver team and hasn't
Speaker 5: Russ always owned the forty nine ers that was.
Speaker 3: In Seattle Pete Carroll the Russ part. Here's where we're
Speaker 3: at on this until proven otherwise. If the spread is
Speaker 3: less than three and Denver is playing a good coach,
Speaker 3: Nathaniel Hackett, is a must fade blindly bet against Hackett
Speaker 3: until proven Otherwise. If the other team we know is
Speaker 3: a good coach and you're laying less than a field goal.
Speaker 4: There is no reason.
Speaker 3: To have any faith in Nathaniel Hackett's operation, his ability
Speaker 3: to get plays in anything. The Bronco crowd is already angry.
Speaker 3: The Niners, on the other hand, because the players do
Speaker 3: have a true affinity for Jimmy Garoppolo, might be playing
Speaker 3: with a little more energy. I Russ looks like a
Speaker 3: shell of himself. All of these things to me. I
Speaker 3: know it's in Denver, and I know it's a desperation
Speaker 3: spot for Denver. I don't think Denver's very good. Their
Speaker 3: coach is utterly incompetent. Russ has been terrible. And San
Speaker 3: Francisco I'm laying less than a field goal. Now, I
Speaker 3: understand another road favorite that I'm betting. But a road
Speaker 3: favorite of less than three is so different than a
Speaker 3: road favorite of six plus. So all those reasons also
Speaker 3: one note on Nathaniel Hackett. Ben Solack wrote a whole
Speaker 3: article about this. I referenced it on but I want
Speaker 3: to reiterate it here. There was I mean, he has
Speaker 3: been in so far over his head. A lot of
Speaker 3: us are like, can he really be this bad? I mean,
Speaker 3: he did get this, get a head coaching job, he
Speaker 3: interviewed and got the job. Now, granted, keep in mind
Speaker 3: they got new ownership in Denver. Rob Walton, the Walmart
Speaker 3: air bought the team since he was hired, so he's
Speaker 3: not gonna have loyalty to him. But it's like, how
Speaker 3: did he get the job? And then Solac reminded us
Speaker 3: that Denver thought they were getting Aaron Rodgers. They hired
Speaker 3: him as Aaron Rodgers bait, so I don't think he
Speaker 3: was Aaron Rodgers offensive coordinator. Then Collinsworth told us Rogers
Speaker 3: loved him because they can played darts together and he
Speaker 3: made him laugh, not because he was some genius schematically.
Speaker 3: So January twenty seventh, Nathaniel Hackett gets hired. Denver was
Speaker 3: the number one team everyone thought Rogers was going to.
Speaker 3: Two days later, Rogers resigns in Green Bay, Denver. Panics
Speaker 3: makes the rust trade. But they hired a guy because
Speaker 3: they thought it would mean Rogers would go there a
Speaker 3: means to an end exactly right. Me if some up
Speaker 3: and coming podcasting platform was like, Hey, no, we're gonna
Speaker 3: make the face of our sports unit demons, and then
Speaker 3: I resigned with Fox, they're gonna be.
Speaker 4: Like, oh boy, let's see how this thing works.
Speaker 3: And everyone's like, oh man Demanse sure seems to know
Speaker 3: a lot about basketball struggles with the other stuff. Why'd
Speaker 3: you make him the face.
Speaker 4: Of your whole enterprise. It's like, well, I thought someone
Speaker 4: might go with him.
Speaker 3: Uh So all this is until proven. Otherwise, if you
Speaker 3: have to lay less than three points and the opposing
Speaker 3: team has what I consider to be a top ten
Speaker 3: coach auto bet, San Francisco minus a point and a half.
Speaker 3: So there's our five picks. We're gonna go over the
Speaker 3: other eleven games on the slate next, and then we'll
Speaker 3: give you our locks. There's the five picks. Baltimore minus
Speaker 3: one and a half, Houston getting two and a half,
Speaker 3: San Francisco minus one and a half, Jacksonville getting seven,
Speaker 3: Minnesota laying six. Only one home team on our card
Speaker 3: this week, very odd week, half the card being point
Speaker 3: point and a half, two or two and a half
Speaker 3: point lines. I've never seen it before, but we're working
Speaker 3: through it. There's our five. We'll be right back.
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Speaker 3: All Right, welcome back in episode seventy three. What's right,
Speaker 3: Nick Rdit's our Week three gambling show. We just gave
Speaker 3: you our five picks of the week. Now we have
Speaker 3: all the other games fall into three buckets. Stay away,
Speaker 3: be careful and perfectly priced. Stay away games or games
Speaker 3: were either the weather, the injury report, or too many
Speaker 3: questions make it something that I just don't have confidence
Speaker 3: in betting demons.
Speaker 4: Let's go through them. What our state?
Speaker 3: Do we do?
Speaker 2: These?
Speaker 3: One by one? I think we do?
Speaker 4: What's our first stay away?
Speaker 2: Cincinnati minus five at the New York Jets.
Speaker 5: This isn't a shit and Joe Burrow turning on at
Speaker 5: some point like what this isn't going to keep happening?
Speaker 3: Okay, So let's talk about this one. There you see
Speaker 3: all four games of stay Away Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New Orleans, Carolina,
Speaker 3: Vegas and Tennessee and Cinceanne the Jets. Let's start with
Speaker 3: CINCINNTAI the Jets. I think Cincinnati is gonna win the Jets.
Speaker 3: I understand they got a nice win last week. It
Speaker 3: also I don't blame Nick Chubb for what happened. But
Speaker 3: if Kareem Hunt doesn't go out of bounds, or if
Speaker 3: Nick Chubb just goes down, or if the Jet the
Speaker 3: Browns defense doesn't self immolate on back to back possessions,
Speaker 3: or if they get an on side kick, the Jets
Speaker 3: a zero and two and looked at is one of
Speaker 3: the worst teams in football right so, and I think
Speaker 3: Sinat is still going to make the playoffs. Why is
Speaker 3: it a stay away? Cincinnati right now appears to be
Speaker 3: so poorly coached and so unable to keep Joe Burrow upright,
Speaker 3: I can't lay five points against any team that might
Speaker 3: have any semblance of a pass rush now in Cincinnati's defense,
Speaker 3: if you do have a shaky offensive line. This two
Speaker 3: worst players in the league to play in weeks one
Speaker 3: and Week two, or TJ. Watt and Michael Parks the
Speaker 3: two best edge rushers in football. The Jets don't have
Speaker 3: somebody like that, so I I don't know that the
Speaker 3: Jets are going to be able to take advantage the
Speaker 3: way the Steelers and Cowboys did. But I'm not betting
Speaker 3: the Jets getting less than a touchdown against any good team.
Speaker 4: I'm just not.
Speaker 3: I think this line should probably be seven and a half,
Speaker 3: like it was for Cincinnati against Dallas. I'm also, however,
Speaker 3: not going to bet the Bengals until they put together
Speaker 3: one good half of football, much less one good game.
Speaker 3: So I'm staying away.
Speaker 5: Next all right, New Orleans minus two and a half
Speaker 5: at Carolina.
Speaker 3: All Right, Yeah, I listen. The Saints offense is a disaster.
Speaker 3: The Panthers offense is a disaster. They keep Carolina has
Speaker 3: been getting, has been the underdog and getting less than
Speaker 3: a field goal every game this year, and they can't cover.
Speaker 3: I I'm just I have no feel on this whatsoever.
Speaker 3: I want to believe in Carolina. Baker's been awful. I
Speaker 3: don't believe in New Orleans. I don't want to lay
Speaker 3: points with New Orleans on the road.
Speaker 4: It's a stay away.
Speaker 3: There's too many questions about either team's offense being able
Speaker 3: to do anything. Usually in that instance, it's like grab
Speaker 3: the points. But when the points is less than a
Speaker 3: field goal, the points aren't quite as useful.
Speaker 4: So we're staying away.
Speaker 5: Next all right, Pittsburgh plus four and a half at Cleveland.
Speaker 4: All right, So this is stay away for this reason.
Speaker 2: Why are we staying away from betting against Minchester Bisky though.
Speaker 3: Because it would be laying points with Jakobe Bursseatt. That's
Speaker 3: why it's a stay away. Now. Usually, when two bad
Speaker 3: quarterbacks play each other and you're getting more than a
Speaker 3: field goal, you'd bet Pittsburgh plus the four and a half,
Speaker 3: and I had on my card initially Pittsburgh plus four
Speaker 3: and a half. That was and it's the Thursday night game,
Speaker 3: so when people hear this, this game will have been played.
Speaker 3: It's been played tonight. So you're saying, why are we're
Speaker 3: betting against Mitch Trubisky. I almost bet on Mitch Trubisky
Speaker 3: because I'm getting four and a half points, right, and
Speaker 3: it's Tomlin. It's the division. I expected to be close,
Speaker 3: but Pittsburgh looked so bad last week, and the Browns
Speaker 3: were two minutes away from looking pretty good. Throughout the
Speaker 3: first two weeks. Week one, they beat Baker in the
Speaker 3: revenge game. Week two, they're beating up the Jets until
Speaker 3: they blow it at the end. I just I can't
Speaker 3: lay four and a half with uh Brissette the Steelers
Speaker 3: with know what what I think might be Trubisky's last game.
Speaker 3: I think they might go to Kiney Pickett because they
Speaker 3: have the long week, you know, Thursday to the next Sunday.
Speaker 3: This to me, it's just if I was going to
Speaker 3: better side, it be Pittsburgh plus four and a half.
Speaker 3: But Cleveland's running game has been so efficient, so deadly,
Speaker 3: that I do worry. They just run the ball down
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's throat and it's Dondra Kobbersett game. My lean is Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3: But I'm staying away, all right. Last one?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 5: Those Vegas minus two at Tennessee. Yep, both these.
Speaker 3: Teams are just gross right now. Tennessee's awful. Vegas has
Speaker 3: to feel terrible. I have no idea what we're getting
Speaker 3: from either of these teams.
Speaker 4: I'm staying away. There's no more analysis there.
Speaker 3: I looked at it. I was like, if Vegas was
Speaker 3: favored by three, then I would take Tennessee as a
Speaker 3: home favorite as a home dog. But at two it's
Speaker 3: not enough that these lines this week are so hard.
Speaker 3: It's not enough. I don't feel comfortable after the way
Speaker 3: the Raiders blew that game betting them as road favorites
Speaker 3: over anybody. I also don't feel comfortable betting Tennessee as
Speaker 3: awful as they've looked. When I'm getting less than a
Speaker 3: field goal. It's a stay away, all right. Next, all right,
Speaker 3: we go to be careful category.
Speaker 5: We are now in the be careful category category, And
Speaker 5: first up is Philly minus six and a.
Speaker 2: Half at Washington. Yeah, the whole media is on Philly.
Speaker 2: What's up with you? All right? Still not there yet?
Speaker 3: Well, and it's not that I'm not there yet. The
Speaker 3: short week concerns me a bit also, And the other
Speaker 3: games were discussed are Casey Andy and Dallas at the Giants.
Speaker 3: But here's the other aspect here, right, I don't think
Speaker 3: anyone is gonna bet Washington. And the fact that this
Speaker 3: thing is staying at six and a half and not
Speaker 3: moved to seven or seven and a half, to me,
Speaker 3: they are daring you to bet Philly. Washington looks like
Speaker 3: they're a mess. Philly looks awesome. It's less than a touchdown,
Speaker 3: and that is the vintage be careful spot that Philly.
Speaker 3: Right now, Jalen Hurts is like third and MVP candidacy.
Speaker 3: The Eagles are a super Bowl team. Ron Rivera. People
Speaker 3: are talking about him getting fired. It's a divisional game.
Speaker 3: You're on the road. In order to cover, you've got
Speaker 3: to win by a touchdown or more, and everyone is
Speaker 3: gonna be on you be careful because I feel like
Speaker 3: they are daring you to bet the Eagles. I don't
Speaker 3: have the guts there to bet Washington because I think
Speaker 3: the Eagles could blow them out. It's a vintage be
Speaker 3: careful spot, stay away from it.
Speaker 2: Next Casey minus five and a half at Indy.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so, by the way, you don't you don't think
Speaker 5: they're gonna smoke Indy and he just got shut out
Speaker 5: by Jacksonville.
Speaker 3: Lest I do think they're gonna smoke Indy. Okay, mahomes
Speaker 3: the greatest September quarterback of all time.
Speaker 2: Greatest September quarterback of all time. What a title?
Speaker 4: So let me hold on, well, let me just like
Speaker 4: uh hold on.
Speaker 2: The Bills called the best September team.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually Yeah.
Speaker 4: This year they have been.
Speaker 3: Here's Mahomes though in his career he's played fifteen This
Speaker 3: courtesy of James Palmer. Patrick Mahomes has played fifteen games
Speaker 3: in September. His record is thirteen and two. That is
Speaker 3: the best in NFL history. He averages in September three
Speaker 3: hundred As far as winning percentage starts, he averages three
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty two yards per game passing in September.
Speaker 3: You where do you think that is in NFL history?
Speaker 3: It's the best. He averages eight point seven yards per
Speaker 3: attempt in September.
Speaker 4: Where do you think that is.
Speaker 3: In NFL history?
Speaker 2: It's the best.
Speaker 3: It's the best He has in his career in September
Speaker 3: forty eight touchdowns, three interceptions. Where do you think that
Speaker 3: ranks and NFL history? Oh, it's the best. And his
Speaker 3: pass writing in September is one twenty two whording that
Speaker 3: ranks in NFL history.
Speaker 4: Oh, it's the best.
Speaker 2: That is.
Speaker 3: That is not my tweet. That's from James Palmer of
Speaker 3: the NFL Network. James Palmer, who used to work in Houston,
Speaker 3: And there is a big you know that giant Houston
Speaker 3: sign off the highway in Houston. One of the I
Speaker 3: always it's like the big colorful letters. It's like it's
Speaker 3: oh yeah, yeah, yeah. James Palmer and I one time
Speaker 3: climbed it and drank beers atop it in the middle
Speaker 3: of the night. That's a true story.
Speaker 2: That's not a true story.
Speaker 4: I swear to God.
Speaker 2: I'm talking about the the little on like the almost
Speaker 2: a bridge liking thing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, off the side of the highway.
Speaker 2: You guys climbed it.
Speaker 3: We climbed the oh, sat on it and drank beers.
Speaker 5: I'm just imagining, like, how does that even?
Speaker 4: He lived right behind it?
Speaker 3: Is that his house? He used to work in Houston
Speaker 3: now it works for the NFL network. All right, check
Speaker 3: drank some beers. What'd you say?
Speaker 2: I said, all right, it checks out.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not okay. So I just gave you all
Speaker 3: those Chiefs numbers. So why am I not laying less
Speaker 3: than a touchdown with them when I do think they're
Speaker 3: going to blow out Indy? Seems too easy, seems too easy.
Speaker 3: Indy looks awful, but they're desperate. Jonathan Taylor might be
Speaker 3: the best running back in football. Matt Listen, Matt Ryan
Speaker 3: might be cooked. He did this self sack last week
Speaker 3: where like there was pressure around him. Instead of getting touched,
Speaker 3: he just crumbled. Everything in me says bet the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: So I'm not gonna do it. I'm not gonna do it.
Speaker 3: I'm just not gonna do it.
Speaker 5: I feel exactly how I felt about the Bill's game.
Speaker 5: Now about this Chiefs topic.
Speaker 3: I'd love it. Listen, I'll be rooting for you.
Speaker 2: I like it.
Speaker 3: No one's gonna be betting the Colts. The problem is
Speaker 3: the be careful category is if you see it and
Speaker 3: you're like, is anyone going to bet Indy? No?
Speaker 4: Do I think the Chiefs are gonna win?
Speaker 3: Yes? Does a backdoor cover situation scare me? There are
Speaker 3: a lot of things the Chiefs Willie Gay. They're inside
Speaker 3: linebackers suspended the next four games. Could that hurt their
Speaker 3: run defense? It could just it looks so obvious we're
Speaker 3: staying away. But with that said, well, I don't want
Speaker 3: to lay the six and a half with filling. I
Speaker 3: want to lay the five and a half with KC.
Speaker 3: That does feel like a very tasty teaser situation. So
Speaker 3: we might talk about that in exotics. All right, last one?
Speaker 5: All right, Dallas plus a point and a half at
Speaker 5: the Giants plus a point.
Speaker 2: Sorry nine point a half, no.
Speaker 3: No problem. Uh, the Giants are only minus one. The
Speaker 3: reason this is a be careful to me is because
Speaker 3: I have no Maybe I should have put this in
Speaker 3: a different category. I have no feel for this game.
Speaker 3: I think the Giants are gonna win, but I have
Speaker 3: no feel. I don't even want to talk about this game.
Speaker 3: I have no feel for it. I was so wrong in.
Speaker 4: The Cowboys last week.
Speaker 3: I think the Giants are gonna win, but I also
Speaker 3: feel like Michael Parsons might be able to force like
Speaker 3: four fumbles of Daniel Jones. I have no feel for it.
Speaker 3: I'm just you know what. I should have put it
Speaker 3: in the state away category. But let's move on to
Speaker 3: perfectly priced quickly, because I said we're gonna go fast,
Speaker 3: and once again we're late.
Speaker 2: Price.
Speaker 5: Bill's minus six at Miami. Yeah, still refusing to go
Speaker 5: in on the bills. Are you saying that you believe
Speaker 5: in Miami or well?
Speaker 3: No, I just think that it's perfectly priced. I think
Speaker 3: that if Miami's a playoff team, which Vegas says they are,
Speaker 3: they're at home. Buffalo is on. But you know, keep
Speaker 3: in mind Buffalo Game one. Everyone's fully rested. Right, they
Speaker 3: play on a Thursday. Week two, they go from Thursday
Speaker 3: to Monday, damn near a bye week.
Speaker 4: So they go from all off.
Speaker 3: Season of rest, then a week and a half. Now
Speaker 3: they're on a short week, right, and it's going to
Speaker 3: be hot. You know those new England Buffalo and the Jets.
Speaker 3: Going down to Miami has caused problems in the past.
Speaker 3: And if Miami is supposed to be a playoff team,
Speaker 3: then at home they shouldn't be more than six and
Speaker 3: a half point underdogs against anybody. So I do think,
Speaker 3: and I do think that with Buffalo suffered some injuries
Speaker 3: to the secondary, Miami might be able to take advantage
Speaker 3: of it. I think the Bills win by a touchdown.
Speaker 3: I think it's perfect price. I expect the Bills to win.
Speaker 3: The line's just right, so we're staying away next.
Speaker 2: All right, Green Bay plus a point at Tampa Bay.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's also perfectly priced. No, Mike Evans,
Speaker 3: Tampa's offense has struggled, So what they're saying is they think,
Speaker 3: right now Green Bay is slightly better than Tampa, but
Speaker 3: the game's in Tampa, so this game is essentially a
Speaker 3: pick them. I totally agree with that, and I think
Speaker 3: this is gonna be the game of the week. I'm
Speaker 3: very excited to see it. But it's a coin flip game.
Speaker 3: It's perfectly priced.
Speaker 5: Next all right, Falcons plus a plaint in a half
Speaker 5: at the Seahawks.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, this is maybe the two worst teams
Speaker 3: in football. What they're saying is that they think Seattle
Speaker 3: is slightly worse than Atlanta, but Atlanta's got to go.
Speaker 3: I wanted to bet Atlanta because I think Seattle's gonna
Speaker 3: struggle to win. I think their Super Bowl was that
Speaker 3: Denver game and they looked awful and weak two awful.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: All year, the all off season, it was about beating Russ.
Speaker 3: They wanted to beat Russ. My problem is it is
Speaker 3: hard to find a longer trip for any one schedule
Speaker 3: than to Seattle. So that flight the East coast to
Speaker 3: West coast, I don't love it. I don't love that
Speaker 3: we're getting less than a field Goalden lumen Field. I
Speaker 3: also don't let love the idea of betting Seattle and
Speaker 3: under any circumstances laying points. It's price just right, that's it.
Speaker 2: Last right, Rams minus three and a half at the Cardinals.
Speaker 3: Yeah, again. I think this is mcveigh's owned Kingsbury. But
Speaker 3: the Cardinals, I'm sorry. The Rams have not looked overwhelming.
Speaker 3: They almost they haven't covered yet this year. The three
Speaker 3: and a half is just right at Rams minus three,
Speaker 3: I would bet it. At Cardinals plus four, i'd probably
Speaker 3: bet them. I think the I probably wouldn't bet either.
Speaker 3: But those are the sides I have. I think three
Speaker 3: and a half's perfectly priced. I expect the Rams win
Speaker 3: this game by around by three or four points. It's
Speaker 3: perfectly priced. All right, We've got to give you our lock,
Speaker 3: got to give you some exotics, our survivor pick, and
Speaker 3: Demont's gotten offer for us. That's all. Next, we wrap
Speaker 3: the show What's Right? All right? Welcome back in final segment,
Speaker 3: What's Right, Nick Right? Episode seventy three, Week three gambling Show.
Speaker 3: Our five picks this week are Baltimore minus two and
Speaker 3: a half. We're staying on Baltimore for the third straight week.
Speaker 3: This time they're in New England Minnesota minus six at
Speaker 3: home against Detroit, Houston plus two and a half in
Speaker 3: Chicago Jacksonville plus seven playing the Chargers in LA and
Speaker 3: San Francisco minus one and a half. Last year, last week,
Speaker 3: we got screwed on our lock the Baltimore bit. I
Speaker 3: almost Demons wanted to lock up Baltimore again. Happy for
Speaker 3: the third straight week we go with Baltimore. But we're
Speaker 3: not gonna do that. Instead, we're gonna take this opportunity
Speaker 3: to fade Nathaniel Hackett. Kyle Shanahan versus Nathaniel Hackett. It
Speaker 3: is truly one of the best coaches, smartest coaches in
Speaker 3: football against one of the most overmatched dufuses I've ever
Speaker 3: seen coach in an NFL game.
Speaker 4: I'm laying less than a field goal.
Speaker 3: San Francisco minus a point and a half is the
Speaker 3: right move. They have now added to the graphic. More
Speaker 3: look at this, more versions of me when I was
Speaker 3: slightly overweight and shaved head, and you are now holding
Speaker 3: money in a football and all these things there it
Speaker 3: is San Francisco minus a point and a half. And
Speaker 3: then yeah, okay, now we're going to teach Demans about teasers. Okay,
Speaker 3: so there are six point, seven point and eight point teasers.
Speaker 3: So a teaser means you have to add you know
Speaker 3: what a parlay is. Parlay is when you just take
Speaker 3: a bunch of bets, put them together teaser is similar,
Speaker 3: but you get to move the line six, seven, or
Speaker 3: ten points and you pay a bigger big depending on
Speaker 3: how many points. So the rules of teasers are that
Speaker 3: you don't want to tease across zero. So if you
Speaker 3: have a team that's favored by three, you wouldn't then
Speaker 3: tease them to plus three because you're not getting true
Speaker 3: value on it, because the game's not going to end
Speaker 3: tied typically, So what you want when you're teasing is
Speaker 3: to take it across key numbers. Right, So like a
Speaker 3: seven and a half point favorite, you might want to
Speaker 3: tease down to a point and a half because seven
Speaker 3: is a key number, six is an important number, three
Speaker 3: is an important number, and then that's seven and a
Speaker 3: half point favor we'll just have to win by at
Speaker 3: least a point and a half, right. Or you can
Speaker 3: also go in the other direction. You know, you can
Speaker 3: tease an underdog, so this if there are a lot
Speaker 3: of two and a half point underdogs, those are great
Speaker 3: teaser legs because you are getting it through the three,
Speaker 3: through the seven, through the six obviously, and through the eight.
Speaker 3: So you take a six a two and a half
Speaker 3: point dog and make them an eight and a half
Speaker 3: point dog. With that said, I'm gonna slightly break one
Speaker 3: of those rules I just told you about. Here we go.
Speaker 3: We have Philly minus six and a half. We are
Speaker 3: teasing it down to Philly minus half point, Philly just
Speaker 3: to win, okay, Philly just to win. And we are
Speaker 3: teasing it with the Chiefs from minus five and a
Speaker 3: half to plus a half point. Again, we're giving up
Speaker 3: one point of value there, because plus half points basically
Speaker 3: the same thing as minus half point. It's gonna end
Speaker 3: on and tie. A two team six point teaser, I
Speaker 3: kind of want to include Houston. In fact, we are
Speaker 3: including Houston. We're getting aggressive. We're going with a three
Speaker 3: team teaser, the Chiefs from five and a half down
Speaker 3: to plus a half point, Philly from six and a
Speaker 3: half to minus half point, and Houston from plus two
Speaker 3: and a half to plus eight and a half.
Speaker 4: So a three team teaser, just so you know how
Speaker 4: the math works on it. A three team six point
Speaker 4: teaser will pay out plus one forty Okay, so one
Speaker 4: hundred bucks to win one hundred and forty bucks, so
Speaker 4: on and so forth. That's our first teaser of the year.
Speaker 4: We will keep track of those as well.
Speaker 3: I'll look at Look at the graphic. Wow, look at
Speaker 3: the graphic.
Speaker 4: US Exotic.
Speaker 3: I like it.
Speaker 2: Exotics Exotics.
Speaker 3: I like it all right.
Speaker 4: Now, do you have an offer you'd like to make me?
Speaker 5: I do have an offer I'd like to make you,
Speaker 5: all right. So this week's offer the Giants to remain
Speaker 5: as the last undefeated team at fifty to one, and
Speaker 5: we've also got the Dolphins to remain as the last
Speaker 5: undefeated team at twenty six to one. Either take those
Speaker 5: two bets and one of these delicious cupcakes that I
Speaker 5: have under my seat.
Speaker 3: You actually have cupcakes with you? Why do you have
Speaker 3: cupcakes with you?
Speaker 2: Bought them specifically to match the chair?
Speaker 3: Oh? Let me see these?
Speaker 2: Yeah? These are some Yeah.
Speaker 3: So you're saying if I take one of these offers,
Speaker 3: I get the cupcakes too. No, no, I think that's
Speaker 3: what you're supposed to be saying.
Speaker 4: But that's fine, no problem. Here's the thing.
Speaker 3: I don't like the Dolphins at twenty six to one.
Speaker 3: The Giants at fifty to one is interesting. So let's
Speaker 3: look at this. I believe the Giants have a very
Speaker 3: good chance at being four and oh okay, so who
Speaker 3: are the other undefeated teams? Kansas City. Kansas City is
Speaker 3: in Tampa next week, and then against Buffalo two weeks later,
Speaker 3: and against San Francisco after that. He'll lose one of
Speaker 3: those games, all right, So Kansas City max is out
Speaker 3: at six and zero. Miami and Buffalo play each other
Speaker 3: this week. I think Miami's gonna win. I'm sorry, Buffalo
Speaker 3: is gonna win. So Miami's off the board. Who are
Speaker 3: other undefeated teams? We talked about the Giants Philadelphia. Let's
Speaker 3: see what they've got. Philadelphia is at their home for Jacksonville.
Speaker 3: They're at Arizona, their home for Dallas. Maybe Dax back
Speaker 3: by then Philadelphia, could you know? I think they max
Speaker 3: out and then they're home for Pittsburgh. Philadelphia doesn't really
Speaker 3: have a really tough game for a while.
Speaker 4: They're interesting. Who are other undefeated teams?
Speaker 3: Tampa? Tampa obviously could lose this week, right, and then
Speaker 3: they play the Chiefs. So Tampa and the Chiefs, one
Speaker 3: of them is gonna knock each other out. So what
Speaker 3: do the Giants max out at? I think they're getting
Speaker 3: to four and oh who at Green Bay Sunday, October ninth,
Speaker 3: then home for Baltimore. All right, that's no good, But
Speaker 3: fifty to one when I think they're getting to four
Speaker 3: and zero, and I could then like hedge out of
Speaker 3: it by if there's only other one undefeated team left,
Speaker 3: betting on that team each week at fifty to one,
Speaker 3: the Giants to be the last remaining undefeated team. I
Speaker 3: think that's good value. That's the first time you've given
Speaker 3: me one of these. That's good value.
Speaker 2: I like it.
Speaker 3: If we were to play out this scenario fifty times,
Speaker 3: would at least one of those times the Giants be
Speaker 3: the last remaining undefeated team. I say yes, I like
Speaker 3: that bet. For the first time, I take that offer.
Speaker 3: You understand what this means, because I've never taken one
Speaker 3: of these. You are making the offer, so I'll make
Speaker 3: it easy on you this time. I'll just bet fifty dollars.
Speaker 3: If the Giants are not the last remaining undefeated team,
Speaker 3: I owe you fifty dollars. But since you made the offer,
Speaker 3: you're the house on this, so you if they are
Speaker 3: the last remaining undefeated.
Speaker 2: Team, you owe me books no hundred and fifty bucks.
Speaker 3: No no, no, no, no no no. It is fifty to one,
Speaker 3: and I bet if I bet one dollar, you'd owe
Speaker 3: me fifty oh, twenty five hundred, so.
Speaker 2: You bucks to get twenty five hundred day.
Speaker 3: Now you're trying to but you're you're like, oh, maybe
Speaker 3: I should make this bet too late. You made the offer.
Speaker 3: I've accepted the offer. It is the first one. If
Speaker 3: the Giants lose before you know, if they're not the
Speaker 3: last remaining undefeated team, I could have done more, But
Speaker 3: to fifty to twenty five hundred feels good. You got
Speaker 3: me for ten thousands FID weeks ago. By the way,
Speaker 3: speaking of that as of recording, let me check real quick. Oh,
Speaker 3: we're getting close. Four hundred and ninety nine thousand, six
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I did see that the churn number was going on.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're getting close. But I take it.
Speaker 3: So the Giants, last remaining undefeated team, you own me
Speaker 3: twenty five hundred buck. If they're not, I owe you
Speaker 3: fifty dollars.
Speaker 2: The cupcakes cancels out the fifty.
Speaker 3: The fifty Yeah, so I don't have to pay you
Speaker 3: even the fifty dollars. What I'm saying, I think you're
Speaker 3: very confused. I ain't our guy. Nick Winer's here in
Speaker 3: New York tried to add an element to the show,
Speaker 3: and that being you offering the cupcakes.
Speaker 2: Wait, so I owe you fifty dollars if it doesn't hit.
Speaker 3: Right, No, I owe you fifty dollars if it doesn't.
Speaker 2: Hit, and if it does hit, you owe me.
Speaker 4: Twenty five hundred dollars.
Speaker 2: Oh, what the hell?
Speaker 3: You've made the offer. You should have talked to them
Speaker 3: about it. You made the offer, Buddy, I accepted the offer.
Speaker 3: It's the first one that I actually think was good value.
Speaker 3: That's today's show.