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Review the 10 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: disclosures and disclaimers at CBO dot com slash us underscore disclaimers. 11 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 3: Welcome in episode seventy three What's Right, Nick Right, the 12 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 3: podcast and YouTube show, It is our Week three NFL 13 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:49,239 Speaker 3: gambling show and. 14 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 2: Demons. 15 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 3: I'm a little stressed out. 16 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, i'd be too. 17 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 4: What does that mean? 18 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 3: What does that mean? 19 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 2: I'd be stressed out if if what I had your 20 00:00:59,240 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 2: betting career. 21 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 3: Okay, okay, a guy's allowed to have a couple of 22 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 3: rough weeks. Week one, I got a little unlucky. 23 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 4: Went two and three. Week two, let's show it to you. 24 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 3: I can't say I got unlucky because I did get 25 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 3: unlucky on the lock in Baltimore. I'm still angry about that. 26 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 3: But I got very lucky to cover Arizona. But those 27 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 3: other two misses green Bay minus ten was good, Arizona 28 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 3: plus five and a half. I got lucky my lock 29 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 3: of the week Baltimore minus three and a half. I 30 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,119 Speaker 3: still can't believe Miami had that comeback. But those other 31 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 3: two on the right hand column, Cincinnati minus seven, Minniso 32 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 3: plus threo just bad picks. They're just bad picks. So 33 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 3: we're shaking up the snow globe this morning. We're changing 34 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 3: the order of the podcast. We're giving you the picks 35 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 3: right off the top. Our brain trust. Gabe and Matt 36 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 3: were like, Nick, if you do the picture off the top, 37 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 3: why are people going to stick around for the rest 38 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 3: of the show, because the lock's coming later the you 39 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 3: know the offer from demons Or Survived pick, which thankfully 40 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 3: Survivor's been brutal this year. We've given out two winners 41 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: in Survivor. We gave out Baltimore and Green Bay first 42 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 3: two weeks. So we're still alive in Survivor, and I 43 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 3: hope someone's jotting down to make sure we can't give 44 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 3: out you know, team a second time. But I made 45 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 3: some I went back and rewatched our episode Week two 46 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 3: Gambling Show. I made some grievous strategic errors. I went 47 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 3: against some of my principles. At one point on the 48 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 3: Cincinnati pick, I said, and I quote, I hate laying 49 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,639 Speaker 3: a touchdown on the road, and then I did it. 50 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 3: I don't feel badly about the Baltimore pick. I don't 51 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 3: at all. And I know I said I got lucky 52 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 3: on the Arizona thing, but I said the Arizona the 53 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 3: back door cover is gonna be open for them all game. 54 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 4: They ended up turning into a backdoor win. 55 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:51,919 Speaker 3: But we're gonna We're gonna get back to what two 56 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 3: of the last three years prior to this best I 57 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 3: can tell I had, well. 58 00:02:57,840 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 4: Not best I can tell. 59 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:02,799 Speaker 3: I know I had profitable public records above fifty five 60 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,519 Speaker 3: percent against the spread, and one of the last three years, 61 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 3: I think I was the best of all national sports 62 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 3: media members. Handicapper, We're gonna get back to it. Two 63 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 3: and three weeks are not good, but they're not crushing. 64 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 3: We aught one four and one week and we're back 65 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 3: above five hundred. That's all we need this week is 66 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 3: a nice four and one week. 67 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:23,559 Speaker 4: The way this works. 68 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,799 Speaker 3: Is I give you five picks I give, and then 69 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,519 Speaker 3: I give the categories of stay away, be careful and 70 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 3: perfectly priced. Let's demonse, get right into the picks. 71 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:34,640 Speaker 2: Let's do it and do it. 72 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 4: What's our first pick? 73 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 2: Nicks picks? 74 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 5: We got Baltimore minus two and a half in New England. Okay, 75 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 5: Baltimore again. 76 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know what, Baltimore. 77 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 3: We picked them week one as our lock, right, it 78 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 3: did mean well, Baltimore. He picked them week two in 79 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 3: our lock. I thought they were gonna do me well. 80 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 3: Some bad shit happened. 81 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 4: I almost wanted to make Baltimore. 82 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 3: My lock again, and I was like, you know what, 83 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 3: let's ease off on the lock part of it. But 84 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 3: Baltimore laying less than a field goal right now. The 85 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 3: injury report is terrifying. As we record this Thursday morning, 86 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 3: Baltimore's injury report is is fifteen people long. Do I 87 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 3: think mac Jones can take advantage of it? No where. 88 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:22,919 Speaker 3: The Patriots lucky to escape last week thanks to Nelson 89 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:24,599 Speaker 3: agil Are making the best play of his career on 90 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 3: a terrible mac Jones pass against the bad Sewers. Yes, 91 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 3: did Lamar play a great game last week? Yes? Does 92 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 3: Belichick historically struggle a bit against the mobile quarterbacks. Cam 93 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 3: gave him trouble. Russ when he used to run around, 94 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:47,359 Speaker 3: gave him trouble. Yes, Also, we don't want to overreact 95 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 3: to what happened last week. Going into the year, all 96 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:54,599 Speaker 3: my study told me we're long on Baltimore, we're short 97 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 3: on New England. We're now getting the Ravens. We're laying 98 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:00,280 Speaker 3: less than a field goal. We're in it being of 99 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 3: laying less than a field goal. I've never seen a 100 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 3: gambling week like this. Sixteen games, eight of them the 101 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 3: line is less than three. Eight of these games the 102 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 3: line is between a point and two and a half points. 103 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 3: Never seen it. There is not a single huge favorite 104 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 3: this week. Fifteen of the sixteen games the line is 105 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:28,039 Speaker 3: six and a half or less. The one game that 106 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 3: is more than six and a half, it's seven. It's 107 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 3: a brutal survivor week. It's a brutal gambling week, which 108 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 3: is why we got in the lab late into the 109 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 3: night to find our five picks. The first one is 110 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 3: Baltimore minus two and a half. 111 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 4: We're riding Baltimore again. 112 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 5: Ride the Baltimore train to death. Well, we'll see, we'll see. 113 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 4: We told you last week. See the other thing. 114 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 3: You know what frustrated me last week when I say 115 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 3: I screwed up my process. 116 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 4: There were a few process errors. One was like, don't. 117 00:05:58,120 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 3: Bet this game. 118 00:05:58,680 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 4: You don't want to watch it, that's the way to. 119 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 3: Make The other one was the moment I heard those 120 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 3: dopes Victor and Matt the all in on Pittsburgh. I 121 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:16,239 Speaker 3: put New England in the be careful category. I should 122 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 3: have put them in the picks whenever. And that's you 123 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 3: know what. We'll see how this week goes. But we 124 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 3: might have to incorporate into the pre show analysis in 125 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 3: the group chat, asking everyone what their favorite bet of 126 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 3: the week is and see if there's a little group 127 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 3: think on the square side from our producers. Okay, Baltimore 128 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 3: minus two and a half first one. 129 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 5: Next, Minnesota six point favorites at home against Detroit. 130 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:51,480 Speaker 3: Sorry, Matt, I offended, Matt, Victory's not offended. Victor knows 131 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 3: we're gonna lay the six with Minnesota. Minnesota minus six. 132 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:59,279 Speaker 2: I think that's I think that's crazy. Tell me what 133 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,039 Speaker 2: I mean. Only the only thing I'm thinking about is 134 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 2: the fact that they're at home. 135 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 3: But I just feel tell me why you think it's 136 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 3: crazy though, I. 137 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:06,719 Speaker 2: Just think the Lions don't look that bad. The Lions 138 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:07,600 Speaker 2: looking good. I don't think. 139 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 3: The offensive scored the most points in football. 140 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 5: I don't think the Vikings have have done that well. 141 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 5: I mean, they just got their asses kicked yep. And 142 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 5: then I just I just don't see it. And then 143 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 5: six points. 144 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 3: I feel even better now. Now I don't like Minnesota 145 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 3: on the short week, I will admit that. But Minnesota 146 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 3: coming off an embarrassing performance on national TV. We're now 147 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 3: in a one pm window where Kirk Cousins is comfortable. 148 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 3: The Lions may be riding a little too high. Justin Jefferson. 149 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 3: The Lions defense has not been able to stop anybody. 150 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson. Gonna have a field day. A field day. 151 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 3: This is a game Minnesota's got to have. We're not 152 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 3: at seven and a half. I feel a little differently. 153 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 3: The reason at six is because of what demands just said, 154 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 3: and so it doesn't look that good. 155 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 4: Detroit's been fun. 156 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 3: All of a sudden. If if this game we're in Detroit, 157 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 3: it would just be a pick them. Come on, come on, 158 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 3: I don't listen. I don't love laying the points. I'd 159 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 3: rather when you're in a slump gambling go with the underdogs. 160 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 3: But I don't think I'm in a slump. I don't 161 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 3: I think that I win against my principles. 162 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 2: I think you're at five hundred right now. 163 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 4: I'm actually below five hundred and four and six. 164 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 3: But against my principles on the Cincinnati bet, and aside 165 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 3: from that, I've liked the process of a lot of 166 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 3: these things. I think this is a bounce back spot 167 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 3: for Minnesota. I don't think Jared Goff is going to 168 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 3: continue to play the best football of his life all 169 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 3: year long. I think this is a game that you 170 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 3: don't see much that is nobody's nobody's locked in on. 171 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 3: Because this is a game that is seventeen to three 172 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 3: at halftime. Minister and Minister, I think Detroit's offense grinds 173 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 3: to a bit of a halt. Temporarily, Minnesota has a nice, cool, comfortable, 174 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 3: easy victory. Justin Jefferson bounces back, Kirk Cousins bounces back 175 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 3: after his brutal game, Dalvin Cook bounces back, and Detroit 176 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 3: which is a nice story but coming off it's first 177 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 3: time favored in a couple of years. 178 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 2: Cousin bounces back from his terrible game. 179 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Kirk Cousins is not going to be 180 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,319 Speaker 3: awful every game. This is a get right spot. Minnesota 181 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 3: minus six, put it down, might be a Survivor pick. 182 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 4: We'll see next. 183 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 5: Ustin plus two and a half in Chicago. Yeah, you 184 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 5: really want to watch it? Justin Fields versus Davis Miller's showdown. 185 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 3: I don't and that to me In week two, I 186 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 3: was like, Oh, you don't want to watch this game. 187 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,559 Speaker 4: Don't bet this game. That is not how this works, right. 188 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 3: We have to be aesthetically agnostic. We can't worry about, Oh, 189 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 3: this is gonna be a fun game to watch. That's 190 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 3: why we're putting action on it. That's not how you 191 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 3: make money. You know, how you make laying less than 192 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:03,359 Speaker 3: a field goal against the Bears. 193 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 4: Sorry, I said that wrong. 194 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 3: I'm not even laying a field goal getting points against 195 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 3: the Bears. 196 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 4: Pardon me? Why are the Bears favored over anybody? 197 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 2: Why? 198 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 3: Someone tell me? Now, I understand getting the two and 199 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 3: a half. You'd much rather this be three, obviously, you'd 200 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 3: rather it be three. But Houston, I think they play 201 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 3: hard for Lovey Smith. Davis Mills knows if he doesn't 202 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 3: play well, his jobs on the line. The Bears clearly 203 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:41,839 Speaker 3: don't trust justin fields to throw. The offensive line is horrible, 204 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 3: just horrible, and Chicago's now the. 205 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 4: Team on the short week. 206 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 3: I simply can't pass up the value of getting points 207 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:58,199 Speaker 3: playing a team that might end up with the worst 208 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 3: record in football this year. Chicago. I know they won 209 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 3: Week one in the monsoon in Trey lancemca's first start, 210 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 3: you know, since being anointed the starter. I get all that, 211 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 3: and no, I'm not excited about watching this game, but 212 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 3: I like the rookie running back for Houston. I like 213 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:23,080 Speaker 3: that Houston understands that after a let's call it frisky 214 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 3: week one, that they let them get away from them 215 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 3: at the very end and they ended up having to 216 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 3: settle for a tie. That they were underwhelming to say 217 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 3: the least in Week two. But there were things in 218 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 3: the Broncos game where defensively, just like in the Colts game, 219 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:44,319 Speaker 3: you're like, oh, this Texans defense is interesting. And the 220 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:47,719 Speaker 3: Texans have covered both times this year. They covered the 221 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 3: nine against Denver, they covered whatever they were against Indy 222 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 3: I think eight. Now they're only getting two and a half, 223 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 3: but they're playing far and away the worst team that 224 00:11:56,160 --> 00:12:00,120 Speaker 3: they've played. I think Chicago's far worse than Indy. I'm 225 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 3: not gonna be watching a lot of this game. I'm 226 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:05,200 Speaker 3: not gonna act like I am. But Houston getting points 227 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:09,199 Speaker 3: at Chicago, we like it. Houston plus two and a 228 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:10,719 Speaker 3: half next, all. 229 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 5: Right, Jacksonville plus seven playing the Chargers in La Okay. 230 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 3: We know the Chargers have no home field. We know 231 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 3: Jacksonville is I believe deserves to be two and zero. 232 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 3: A defensive breakdown, a few drop touchdowns in week one 233 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 3: is the reason they're not two and Oh. Jacksonville looked 234 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 3: awesome on both sides of the ball in Week two 235 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 3: against Indy the Chargers. Now, what the Chargers have going 236 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 3: for them is the extra rest they played on Thursday. Right, However, 237 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:49,319 Speaker 3: I think the Jags could win this game. I'm not 238 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 3: picking them to win. I think they could win this game. 239 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:56,200 Speaker 3: I definitely expect this game to be close and getting 240 00:12:56,280 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 3: the full seven. Even if Jacksonville is getting beat by 241 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 3: two scores. The back door is gonna be opened the 242 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 3: whole game and Jacksonville is going to keep throwing the football. 243 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 3: Jacksonville is gonna keep throwing it to get Trevor. They 244 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 3: I think they want to build up Trevor's confidence. They 245 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,720 Speaker 3: want to build up his numbers. So there's so many 246 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:23,079 Speaker 3: scenarios where this where Jacksonville can cover this seven even 247 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 3: if they lose. Additionally, now, am I a little worried 248 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 3: about the Chargers pass rush against the Jags offensive line? 249 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 3: I am? However, what do we know about Justin Herbert? 250 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 3: The Chiefs just broke his ribs. Now he's limited in practice, 251 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 3: but he's expected to play. They're gonna inject him. They're 252 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 3: gonna be paying killing essentially with morphine. How about this, Demansey. 253 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 3: You don't know this. Justin Herbert got his first career 254 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 3: start because two years ago this week, Tyrod Taylor had 255 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 3: the same injury. Before the game, the team doctor went 256 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 3: to inject him with a painkiller in his ribs, put 257 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 3: the needle in too far and punctured his lung. Punctured 258 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 3: Tyrod Taylor's lung the Chargers team doctor. So Herbert had 259 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 3: to make an emergency start almost beat the Chiefs that 260 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 3: game in his first start ever. Two things, One is 261 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 3: Tyrod Taylor just sued the team for the doctor five 262 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 3: million bucks. Second of all, it's the same doctor. He 263 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 3: didn't lose his job. He's the guy that's going to 264 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 3: be injecting Justin Herbert with the same painkilling thing. But 265 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 3: here's why I think it's noteworthy. The Chargers are not 266 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 3: going to be if they have a lead late, They're 267 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 3: not going to put Justin Herbert in jeopard They're going 268 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 3: to be running the ball just trying to get home. 269 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 3: I'm not worried about the Chargers being up six and 270 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 3: then throwing for a late touchdown. They want to have 271 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 3: Justin Herbert have his few pass attempts at you know, 272 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 3: break glass in case of emergen on the Justin Herbert rocket. 273 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,200 Speaker 3: So the idea that they're gonna blow out the Jags 274 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 3: in this context, I think it's low. They also have 275 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 3: a crummy injury report. At the moment, the Jags of 276 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 3: the cleanest injury report in football. It's the one game 277 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 3: of the weekend where you're getting a full touchdown Jacksonville 278 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 3: plus seven. That was the other thing that screwed me 279 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 3: up last week. I was high on the Jags preseason. 280 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 3: I bet them in Week one they were part of 281 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 3: my picks, and I felt like I got kind of. 282 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 4: Screwed at the end. 283 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 3: And last week, if you remember on the show, I 284 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 3: said I liked the Jags. The Jags had beaten Indy 285 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 3: in Indy or in Jacksonville like more than five straight years. 286 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 3: The Colts didn't look good in Week one. There were 287 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 3: so many signals to me to go with the Jags. 288 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 3: But I said to myself, Ah, do I really you know? 289 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 3: Maybe I'm just wrong about the Jaguars. Do I really 290 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 3: want them to be I think I said twenty percent 291 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 3: of my card the first two weeks of the year, 292 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 3: and I stayed away from him when I shouldn't have. 293 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 3: We're back on them. Jacksonville plus seven Herbert banged up Jags, 294 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 3: have a lot of ways to cover. 295 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 4: Small chance to win. Jags plus seven. 296 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 2: Next San fran minus a pointing a half in Denver. 297 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 5: No love for the home field Denver team and hasn't 298 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:17,800 Speaker 5: Russ always owned the forty nine ers that was. 299 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 3: In Seattle Pete Carroll the Russ part. Here's where we're 300 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 3: at on this until proven otherwise. If the spread is 301 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 3: less than three and Denver is playing a good coach, 302 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 3: Nathaniel Hackett, is a must fade blindly bet against Hackett 303 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 3: until proven Otherwise. If the other team we know is 304 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 3: a good coach and you're laying less than a field goal. 305 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 4: There is no reason. 306 00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 3: To have any faith in Nathaniel Hackett's operation, his ability 307 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 3: to get plays in anything. The Bronco crowd is already angry. 308 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 3: The Niners, on the other hand, because the players do 309 00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 3: have a true affinity for Jimmy Garoppolo, might be playing 310 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 3: with a little more energy. I Russ looks like a 311 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:25,239 Speaker 3: shell of himself. All of these things to me. I 312 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 3: know it's in Denver, and I know it's a desperation 313 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 3: spot for Denver. I don't think Denver's very good. Their 314 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:38,120 Speaker 3: coach is utterly incompetent. Russ has been terrible. And San 315 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 3: Francisco I'm laying less than a field goal. Now, I 316 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:45,399 Speaker 3: understand another road favorite that I'm betting. But a road 317 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 3: favorite of less than three is so different than a 318 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 3: road favorite of six plus. So all those reasons also 319 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 3: one note on Nathaniel Hackett. Ben Solack wrote a whole 320 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 3: article about this. I referenced it on but I want 321 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:05,360 Speaker 3: to reiterate it here. There was I mean, he has 322 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 3: been in so far over his head. A lot of 323 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 3: us are like, can he really be this bad? I mean, 324 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,160 Speaker 3: he did get this, get a head coaching job, he 325 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 3: interviewed and got the job. Now, granted, keep in mind 326 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:22,719 Speaker 3: they got new ownership in Denver. Rob Walton, the Walmart 327 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 3: air bought the team since he was hired, so he's 328 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 3: not gonna have loyalty to him. But it's like, how 329 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 3: did he get the job? And then Solac reminded us 330 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 3: that Denver thought they were getting Aaron Rodgers. They hired 331 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:41,919 Speaker 3: him as Aaron Rodgers bait, so I don't think he 332 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 3: was Aaron Rodgers offensive coordinator. Then Collinsworth told us Rogers 333 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 3: loved him because they can played darts together and he 334 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 3: made him laugh, not because he was some genius schematically. 335 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 3: So January twenty seventh, Nathaniel Hackett gets hired. Denver was 336 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 3: the number one team everyone thought Rogers was going to. 337 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 3: Two days later, Rogers resigns in Green Bay, Denver. Panics 338 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 3: makes the rust trade. But they hired a guy because 339 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 3: they thought it would mean Rogers would go there a 340 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:20,200 Speaker 3: means to an end exactly right. Me if some up 341 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 3: and coming podcasting platform was like, Hey, no, we're gonna 342 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 3: make the face of our sports unit demons, and then 343 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 3: I resigned with Fox, they're gonna be. 344 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 4: Like, oh boy, let's see how this thing works. 345 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 3: And everyone's like, oh man Demanse sure seems to know 346 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 3: a lot about basketball struggles with the other stuff. Why'd 347 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 3: you make him the face. 348 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,359 Speaker 4: Of your whole enterprise. It's like, well, I thought someone 349 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:46,120 Speaker 4: might go with him. 350 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 3: Uh So all this is until proven. Otherwise, if you 351 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 3: have to lay less than three points and the opposing 352 00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 3: team has what I consider to be a top ten 353 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 3: coach auto bet, San Francisco minus a point and a half. 354 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 3: So there's our five picks. We're gonna go over the 355 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 3: other eleven games on the slate next, and then we'll 356 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 3: give you our locks. There's the five picks. Baltimore minus 357 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 3: one and a half, Houston getting two and a half, 358 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 3: San Francisco minus one and a half, Jacksonville getting seven, 359 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 3: Minnesota laying six. Only one home team on our card 360 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 3: this week, very odd week, half the card being point 361 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 3: point and a half, two or two and a half 362 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 3: point lines. I've never seen it before, but we're working 363 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 3: through it. There's our five. We'll be right back. 364 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 6: This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable Discover the 365 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 6: inspiring true story about Anthony Robless, who defined every expectation 366 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:56,199 Speaker 6: to become a national wrestling Champion and Unstoppable, a new 367 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 6: original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg. 368 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 6: Building the excitement and camaraderie of classic sports dramas and 369 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 6: thrilling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble cast 370 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 6: including Jerrell Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Don Cheatle, Michael Tanya, and 371 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:14,359 Speaker 6: Bobby Canavali. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video. 372 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 3: All Right, welcome back in episode seventy three. What's right, 373 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,120 Speaker 3: Nick Rdit's our Week three gambling show. We just gave 374 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 3: you our five picks of the week. Now we have 375 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 3: all the other games fall into three buckets. Stay away, 376 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 3: be careful and perfectly priced. Stay away games or games 377 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 3: were either the weather, the injury report, or too many 378 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 3: questions make it something that I just don't have confidence 379 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:36,680 Speaker 3: in betting demons. 380 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 4: Let's go through them. What our state? 381 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 3: Do we do? 382 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:40,800 Speaker 2: These? 383 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 3: One by one? I think we do? 384 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 4: What's our first stay away? 385 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 2: Cincinnati minus five at the New York Jets. 386 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,360 Speaker 5: This isn't a shit and Joe Burrow turning on at 387 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 5: some point like what this isn't going to keep happening? 388 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 3: Okay, So let's talk about this one. There you see 389 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 3: all four games of stay Away Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New Orleans, Carolina, 390 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,639 Speaker 3: Vegas and Tennessee and Cinceanne the Jets. Let's start with 391 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 3: CINCINNTAI the Jets. I think Cincinnati is gonna win the Jets. 392 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 3: I understand they got a nice win last week. It 393 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 3: also I don't blame Nick Chubb for what happened. But 394 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 3: if Kareem Hunt doesn't go out of bounds, or if 395 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 3: Nick Chubb just goes down, or if the Jet the 396 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 3: Browns defense doesn't self immolate on back to back possessions, 397 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 3: or if they get an on side kick, the Jets 398 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 3: a zero and two and looked at is one of 399 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:31,120 Speaker 3: the worst teams in football right so, and I think 400 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 3: Sinat is still going to make the playoffs. Why is 401 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:37,439 Speaker 3: it a stay away? Cincinnati right now appears to be 402 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 3: so poorly coached and so unable to keep Joe Burrow upright, 403 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 3: I can't lay five points against any team that might 404 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 3: have any semblance of a pass rush now in Cincinnati's defense, 405 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 3: if you do have a shaky offensive line. This two 406 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,359 Speaker 3: worst players in the league to play in weeks one 407 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 3: and Week two, or TJ. Watt and Michael Parks the 408 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 3: two best edge rushers in football. The Jets don't have 409 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 3: somebody like that, so I I don't know that the 410 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 3: Jets are going to be able to take advantage the 411 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:15,399 Speaker 3: way the Steelers and Cowboys did. But I'm not betting 412 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 3: the Jets getting less than a touchdown against any good team. 413 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 4: I'm just not. 414 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 3: I think this line should probably be seven and a half, 415 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 3: like it was for Cincinnati against Dallas. I'm also, however, 416 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 3: not going to bet the Bengals until they put together 417 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,160 Speaker 3: one good half of football, much less one good game. 418 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 3: So I'm staying away. 419 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 5: Next all right, New Orleans minus two and a half 420 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 5: at Carolina. 421 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:44,160 Speaker 3: All Right, Yeah, I listen. The Saints offense is a disaster. 422 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 3: The Panthers offense is a disaster. They keep Carolina has 423 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 3: been getting, has been the underdog and getting less than 424 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,920 Speaker 3: a field goal every game this year, and they can't cover. 425 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 3: I I'm just I have no feel on this whatsoever. 426 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,439 Speaker 3: I want to believe in Carolina. Baker's been awful. I 427 00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 3: don't believe in New Orleans. I don't want to lay 428 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 3: points with New Orleans on the road. 429 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 4: It's a stay away. 430 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 3: There's too many questions about either team's offense being able 431 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,680 Speaker 3: to do anything. Usually in that instance, it's like grab 432 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,840 Speaker 3: the points. But when the points is less than a 433 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,520 Speaker 3: field goal, the points aren't quite as useful. 434 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 4: So we're staying away. 435 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 5: Next all right, Pittsburgh plus four and a half at Cleveland. 436 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 4: All right, So this is stay away for this reason. 437 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,360 Speaker 2: Why are we staying away from betting against Minchester Bisky though. 438 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 3: Because it would be laying points with Jakobe Bursseatt. That's 439 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 3: why it's a stay away. Now. Usually, when two bad 440 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 3: quarterbacks play each other and you're getting more than a 441 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,399 Speaker 3: field goal, you'd bet Pittsburgh plus the four and a half, 442 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 3: and I had on my card initially Pittsburgh plus four 443 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,920 Speaker 3: and a half. That was and it's the Thursday night game, 444 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 3: so when people hear this, this game will have been played. 445 00:24:55,480 --> 00:25:00,160 Speaker 3: It's been played tonight. So you're saying, why are we're 446 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,920 Speaker 3: betting against Mitch Trubisky. I almost bet on Mitch Trubisky 447 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 3: because I'm getting four and a half points, right, and 448 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,719 Speaker 3: it's Tomlin. It's the division. I expected to be close, 449 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 3: but Pittsburgh looked so bad last week, and the Browns 450 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 3: were two minutes away from looking pretty good. Throughout the 451 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 3: first two weeks. Week one, they beat Baker in the 452 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,720 Speaker 3: revenge game. Week two, they're beating up the Jets until 453 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 3: they blow it at the end. I just I can't 454 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 3: lay four and a half with uh Brissette the Steelers 455 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:46,200 Speaker 3: with know what what I think might be Trubisky's last game. 456 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,639 Speaker 3: I think they might go to Kiney Pickett because they 457 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,680 Speaker 3: have the long week, you know, Thursday to the next Sunday. 458 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:55,560 Speaker 3: This to me, it's just if I was going to 459 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,879 Speaker 3: better side, it be Pittsburgh plus four and a half. 460 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 3: But Cleveland's running game has been so efficient, so deadly, 461 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,400 Speaker 3: that I do worry. They just run the ball down 462 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:08,719 Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's throat and it's Dondra Kobbersett game. My lean is Pittsburgh. 463 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,360 Speaker 3: But I'm staying away, all right. Last one? 464 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 2: All right? 465 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 5: Those Vegas minus two at Tennessee. Yep, both these. 466 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 3: Teams are just gross right now. Tennessee's awful. Vegas has 467 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:26,320 Speaker 3: to feel terrible. I have no idea what we're getting 468 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:27,880 Speaker 3: from either of these teams. 469 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 4: I'm staying away. There's no more analysis there. 470 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 3: I looked at it. I was like, if Vegas was 471 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 3: favored by three, then I would take Tennessee as a 472 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:41,200 Speaker 3: home favorite as a home dog. But at two it's 473 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 3: not enough that these lines this week are so hard. 474 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,640 Speaker 3: It's not enough. I don't feel comfortable after the way 475 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 3: the Raiders blew that game betting them as road favorites 476 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 3: over anybody. I also don't feel comfortable betting Tennessee as 477 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 3: awful as they've looked. When I'm getting less than a 478 00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:00,719 Speaker 3: field goal. It's a stay away, all right. Next, all right, 479 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:02,359 Speaker 3: we go to be careful category. 480 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 5: We are now in the be careful category category, And 481 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 5: first up is Philly minus six and a. 482 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:11,639 Speaker 2: Half at Washington. Yeah, the whole media is on Philly. 483 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 2: What's up with you? All right? Still not there yet? 484 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,399 Speaker 3: Well, and it's not that I'm not there yet. The 485 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:22,160 Speaker 3: short week concerns me a bit also, And the other 486 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:25,440 Speaker 3: games were discussed are Casey Andy and Dallas at the Giants. 487 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:31,360 Speaker 3: But here's the other aspect here, right, I don't think 488 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 3: anyone is gonna bet Washington. And the fact that this 489 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,320 Speaker 3: thing is staying at six and a half and not 490 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,320 Speaker 3: moved to seven or seven and a half, to me, 491 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:46,359 Speaker 3: they are daring you to bet Philly. Washington looks like 492 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:51,879 Speaker 3: they're a mess. Philly looks awesome. It's less than a touchdown, 493 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:57,119 Speaker 3: and that is the vintage be careful spot that Philly. 494 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,679 Speaker 3: Right now, Jalen Hurts is like third and MVP candidacy. 495 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,000 Speaker 3: The Eagles are a super Bowl team. Ron Rivera. People 496 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,720 Speaker 3: are talking about him getting fired. It's a divisional game. 497 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 3: You're on the road. In order to cover, you've got 498 00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 3: to win by a touchdown or more, and everyone is 499 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 3: gonna be on you be careful because I feel like 500 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 3: they are daring you to bet the Eagles. I don't 501 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 3: have the guts there to bet Washington because I think 502 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,000 Speaker 3: the Eagles could blow them out. It's a vintage be 503 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,440 Speaker 3: careful spot, stay away from it. 504 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 2: Next Casey minus five and a half at Indy. 505 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,439 Speaker 5: Yeah, so, by the way, you don't you don't think 506 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 5: they're gonna smoke Indy and he just got shut out 507 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:40,080 Speaker 5: by Jacksonville. 508 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 3: Lest I do think they're gonna smoke Indy. Okay, mahomes 509 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 3: the greatest September quarterback of all time. 510 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 2: Greatest September quarterback of all time. What a title? 511 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,000 Speaker 4: So let me hold on, well, let me just like 512 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 4: uh hold on. 513 00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,720 Speaker 2: The Bills called the best September team. 514 00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually Yeah. 515 00:28:58,440 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 4: This year they have been. 516 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,280 Speaker 3: Here's Mahomes though in his career he's played fifteen This 517 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 3: courtesy of James Palmer. Patrick Mahomes has played fifteen games 518 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 3: in September. His record is thirteen and two. That is 519 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:17,160 Speaker 3: the best in NFL history. He averages in September three 520 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 3: hundred As far as winning percentage starts, he averages three 521 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 3: hundred and twenty two yards per game passing in September. 522 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 3: You where do you think that is in NFL history? 523 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 3: It's the best. He averages eight point seven yards per 524 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 3: attempt in September. 525 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 4: Where do you think that is. 526 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 3: In NFL history? 527 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 2: It's the best. 528 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 3: It's the best He has in his career in September 529 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:41,240 Speaker 3: forty eight touchdowns, three interceptions. Where do you think that 530 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,800 Speaker 3: ranks and NFL history? Oh, it's the best. And his 531 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,480 Speaker 3: pass writing in September is one twenty two whording that 532 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:47,480 Speaker 3: ranks in NFL history. 533 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 4: Oh, it's the best. 534 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:49,400 Speaker 2: That is. 535 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,080 Speaker 3: That is not my tweet. That's from James Palmer of 536 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 3: the NFL Network. James Palmer, who used to work in Houston, 537 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,960 Speaker 3: And there is a big you know that giant Houston 538 00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,080 Speaker 3: sign off the highway in Houston. One of the I 539 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,000 Speaker 3: always it's like the big colorful letters. It's like it's 540 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,160 Speaker 3: oh yeah, yeah, yeah. James Palmer and I one time 541 00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 3: climbed it and drank beers atop it in the middle 542 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:08,400 Speaker 3: of the night. That's a true story. 543 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,360 Speaker 2: That's not a true story. 544 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 4: I swear to God. 545 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 2: I'm talking about the the little on like the almost 546 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 2: a bridge liking thing. 547 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:16,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, off the side of the highway. 548 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 2: You guys climbed it. 549 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:23,520 Speaker 3: We climbed the oh, sat on it and drank beers. 550 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 5: I'm just imagining, like, how does that even? 551 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:29,000 Speaker 4: He lived right behind it? 552 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,400 Speaker 3: Is that his house? He used to work in Houston 553 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 3: now it works for the NFL network. All right, check 554 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 3: drank some beers. What'd you say? 555 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 2: I said, all right, it checks out. 556 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not okay. So I just gave you all 557 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:47,160 Speaker 3: those Chiefs numbers. So why am I not laying less 558 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 3: than a touchdown with them when I do think they're 559 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 3: going to blow out Indy? Seems too easy, seems too easy. 560 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 3: Indy looks awful, but they're desperate. Jonathan Taylor might be 561 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 3: the best running back in football. Matt Listen, Matt Ryan 562 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,680 Speaker 3: might be cooked. He did this self sack last week 563 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 3: where like there was pressure around him. Instead of getting touched, 564 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:18,520 Speaker 3: he just crumbled. Everything in me says bet the Chiefs. 565 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 3: So I'm not gonna do it. I'm not gonna do it. 566 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:23,400 Speaker 3: I'm just not gonna do it. 567 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,480 Speaker 5: I feel exactly how I felt about the Bill's game. 568 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:28,320 Speaker 5: Now about this Chiefs topic. 569 00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 3: I'd love it. Listen, I'll be rooting for you. 570 00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 2: I like it. 571 00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 3: No one's gonna be betting the Colts. The problem is 572 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 3: the be careful category is if you see it and 573 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:43,040 Speaker 3: you're like, is anyone going to bet Indy? No? 574 00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:45,120 Speaker 4: Do I think the Chiefs are gonna win? 575 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,720 Speaker 3: Yes? Does a backdoor cover situation scare me? There are 576 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,680 Speaker 3: a lot of things the Chiefs Willie Gay. They're inside 577 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,600 Speaker 3: linebackers suspended the next four games. Could that hurt their 578 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 3: run defense? It could just it looks so obvious we're 579 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:02,960 Speaker 3: staying away. But with that said, well, I don't want 580 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 3: to lay the six and a half with filling. I 581 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 3: want to lay the five and a half with KC. 582 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 3: That does feel like a very tasty teaser situation. So 583 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 3: we might talk about that in exotics. All right, last one? 584 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 5: All right, Dallas plus a point and a half at 585 00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 5: the Giants plus a point. 586 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:18,640 Speaker 2: Sorry nine point a half, no. 587 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 3: No problem. Uh, the Giants are only minus one. The 588 00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:27,480 Speaker 3: reason this is a be careful to me is because 589 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,960 Speaker 3: I have no Maybe I should have put this in 590 00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:34,240 Speaker 3: a different category. I have no feel for this game. 591 00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:39,120 Speaker 3: I think the Giants are gonna win, but I have 592 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:40,640 Speaker 3: no feel. I don't even want to talk about this game. 593 00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 3: I have no feel for it. I was so wrong in. 594 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:44,000 Speaker 4: The Cowboys last week. 595 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 3: I think the Giants are gonna win, but I also 596 00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:47,880 Speaker 3: feel like Michael Parsons might be able to force like 597 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 3: four fumbles of Daniel Jones. I have no feel for it. 598 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:52,840 Speaker 3: I'm just you know what. I should have put it 599 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 3: in the state away category. But let's move on to 600 00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,040 Speaker 3: perfectly priced quickly, because I said we're gonna go fast, 601 00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 3: and once again we're late. 602 00:32:58,160 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 2: Price. 603 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:02,840 Speaker 5: Bill's minus six at Miami. Yeah, still refusing to go 604 00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 5: in on the bills. Are you saying that you believe 605 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 5: in Miami or well? 606 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,840 Speaker 3: No, I just think that it's perfectly priced. I think 607 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:12,160 Speaker 3: that if Miami's a playoff team, which Vegas says they are, 608 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,320 Speaker 3: they're at home. Buffalo is on. But you know, keep 609 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,880 Speaker 3: in mind Buffalo Game one. Everyone's fully rested. Right, they 610 00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:22,280 Speaker 3: play on a Thursday. Week two, they go from Thursday 611 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,360 Speaker 3: to Monday, damn near a bye week. 612 00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,120 Speaker 4: So they go from all off. 613 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,640 Speaker 3: Season of rest, then a week and a half. Now 614 00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,720 Speaker 3: they're on a short week, right, and it's going to 615 00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,840 Speaker 3: be hot. You know those new England Buffalo and the Jets. 616 00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,800 Speaker 3: Going down to Miami has caused problems in the past. 617 00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,480 Speaker 3: And if Miami is supposed to be a playoff team, 618 00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 3: then at home they shouldn't be more than six and 619 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,040 Speaker 3: a half point underdogs against anybody. So I do think, 620 00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:52,000 Speaker 3: and I do think that with Buffalo suffered some injuries 621 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,680 Speaker 3: to the secondary, Miami might be able to take advantage 622 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 3: of it. I think the Bills win by a touchdown. 623 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,640 Speaker 3: I think it's perfect price. I expect the Bills to win. 624 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 3: The line's just right, so we're staying away next. 625 00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,120 Speaker 2: All right, Green Bay plus a point at Tampa Bay. 626 00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's also perfectly priced. No, Mike Evans, 627 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:13,359 Speaker 3: Tampa's offense has struggled, So what they're saying is they think, 628 00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:15,880 Speaker 3: right now Green Bay is slightly better than Tampa, but 629 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,400 Speaker 3: the game's in Tampa, so this game is essentially a 630 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,680 Speaker 3: pick them. I totally agree with that, and I think 631 00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:23,080 Speaker 3: this is gonna be the game of the week. I'm 632 00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,560 Speaker 3: very excited to see it. But it's a coin flip game. 633 00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:26,560 Speaker 3: It's perfectly priced. 634 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,880 Speaker 5: Next all right, Falcons plus a plaint in a half 635 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:29,759 Speaker 5: at the Seahawks. 636 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, this is maybe the two worst teams 637 00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,400 Speaker 3: in football. What they're saying is that they think Seattle 638 00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,560 Speaker 3: is slightly worse than Atlanta, but Atlanta's got to go. 639 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:42,160 Speaker 3: I wanted to bet Atlanta because I think Seattle's gonna 640 00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,120 Speaker 3: struggle to win. I think their Super Bowl was that 641 00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:47,680 Speaker 3: Denver game and they looked awful and weak two awful. 642 00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:48,319 Speaker 1: Yeah. 643 00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,959 Speaker 3: All year, the all off season, it was about beating Russ. 644 00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:56,319 Speaker 3: They wanted to beat Russ. My problem is it is 645 00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,320 Speaker 3: hard to find a longer trip for any one schedule 646 00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:03,440 Speaker 3: than to Seattle. So that flight the East coast to 647 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,840 Speaker 3: West coast, I don't love it. I don't love that 648 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:10,040 Speaker 3: we're getting less than a field Goalden lumen Field. I 649 00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,160 Speaker 3: also don't let love the idea of betting Seattle and 650 00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:17,279 Speaker 3: under any circumstances laying points. It's price just right, that's it. 651 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 2: Last right, Rams minus three and a half at the Cardinals. 652 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:25,279 Speaker 3: Yeah, again. I think this is mcveigh's owned Kingsbury. But 653 00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 3: the Cardinals, I'm sorry. The Rams have not looked overwhelming. 654 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,319 Speaker 3: They almost they haven't covered yet this year. The three 655 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,759 Speaker 3: and a half is just right at Rams minus three, 656 00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:37,280 Speaker 3: I would bet it. At Cardinals plus four, i'd probably 657 00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 3: bet them. I think the I probably wouldn't bet either. 658 00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,239 Speaker 3: But those are the sides I have. I think three 659 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:44,799 Speaker 3: and a half's perfectly priced. I expect the Rams win 660 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,719 Speaker 3: this game by around by three or four points. It's 661 00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,359 Speaker 3: perfectly priced. All right, We've got to give you our lock, 662 00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,080 Speaker 3: got to give you some exotics, our survivor pick, and 663 00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,600 Speaker 3: Demont's gotten offer for us. That's all. Next, we wrap 664 00:35:55,680 --> 00:36:03,720 Speaker 3: the show What's Right? All right? Welcome back in final segment, 665 00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:08,160 Speaker 3: What's Right, Nick Right? Episode seventy three, Week three gambling Show. 666 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,320 Speaker 3: Our five picks this week are Baltimore minus two and 667 00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:14,520 Speaker 3: a half. We're staying on Baltimore for the third straight week. 668 00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 3: This time they're in New England Minnesota minus six at 669 00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,360 Speaker 3: home against Detroit, Houston plus two and a half in 670 00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:24,840 Speaker 3: Chicago Jacksonville plus seven playing the Chargers in LA and 671 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:29,520 Speaker 3: San Francisco minus one and a half. Last year, last week, 672 00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,560 Speaker 3: we got screwed on our lock the Baltimore bit. I 673 00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:36,080 Speaker 3: almost Demons wanted to lock up Baltimore again. Happy for 674 00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:38,839 Speaker 3: the third straight week we go with Baltimore. But we're 675 00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:42,120 Speaker 3: not gonna do that. Instead, we're gonna take this opportunity 676 00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:46,600 Speaker 3: to fade Nathaniel Hackett. Kyle Shanahan versus Nathaniel Hackett. It 677 00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:51,120 Speaker 3: is truly one of the best coaches, smartest coaches in 678 00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:55,680 Speaker 3: football against one of the most overmatched dufuses I've ever 679 00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 3: seen coach in an NFL game. 680 00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:58,640 Speaker 4: I'm laying less than a field goal. 681 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,719 Speaker 3: San Francisco minus a point and a half is the 682 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:06,040 Speaker 3: right move. They have now added to the graphic. More 683 00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,520 Speaker 3: look at this, more versions of me when I was 684 00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,800 Speaker 3: slightly overweight and shaved head, and you are now holding 685 00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,759 Speaker 3: money in a football and all these things there it 686 00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:19,160 Speaker 3: is San Francisco minus a point and a half. And 687 00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:26,600 Speaker 3: then yeah, okay, now we're going to teach Demans about teasers. Okay, 688 00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,440 Speaker 3: so there are six point, seven point and eight point teasers. 689 00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:34,520 Speaker 3: So a teaser means you have to add you know 690 00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,839 Speaker 3: what a parlay is. Parlay is when you just take 691 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,400 Speaker 3: a bunch of bets, put them together teaser is similar, 692 00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 3: but you get to move the line six, seven, or 693 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,640 Speaker 3: ten points and you pay a bigger big depending on 694 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:52,000 Speaker 3: how many points. So the rules of teasers are that 695 00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,440 Speaker 3: you don't want to tease across zero. So if you 696 00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,759 Speaker 3: have a team that's favored by three, you wouldn't then 697 00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:03,520 Speaker 3: tease them to plus three because you're not getting true 698 00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,480 Speaker 3: value on it, because the game's not going to end 699 00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:12,520 Speaker 3: tied typically, So what you want when you're teasing is 700 00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:17,000 Speaker 3: to take it across key numbers. Right, So like a 701 00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:20,640 Speaker 3: seven and a half point favorite, you might want to 702 00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,880 Speaker 3: tease down to a point and a half because seven 703 00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:27,120 Speaker 3: is a key number, six is an important number, three 704 00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:29,200 Speaker 3: is an important number, and then that's seven and a 705 00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:30,520 Speaker 3: half point favor we'll just have to win by at 706 00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:32,920 Speaker 3: least a point and a half, right. Or you can 707 00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,719 Speaker 3: also go in the other direction. You know, you can 708 00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:40,439 Speaker 3: tease an underdog, so this if there are a lot 709 00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,840 Speaker 3: of two and a half point underdogs, those are great 710 00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:47,560 Speaker 3: teaser legs because you are getting it through the three, 711 00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:52,200 Speaker 3: through the seven, through the six obviously, and through the eight. 712 00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:54,200 Speaker 3: So you take a six a two and a half 713 00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:56,560 Speaker 3: point dog and make them an eight and a half 714 00:38:56,640 --> 00:39:01,040 Speaker 3: point dog. With that said, I'm gonna slightly break one 715 00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,799 Speaker 3: of those rules I just told you about. Here we go. 716 00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:11,000 Speaker 3: We have Philly minus six and a half. We are 717 00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:15,799 Speaker 3: teasing it down to Philly minus half point, Philly just 718 00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:21,160 Speaker 3: to win, okay, Philly just to win. And we are 719 00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:25,719 Speaker 3: teasing it with the Chiefs from minus five and a 720 00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,680 Speaker 3: half to plus a half point. Again, we're giving up 721 00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,560 Speaker 3: one point of value there, because plus half points basically 722 00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:33,759 Speaker 3: the same thing as minus half point. It's gonna end 723 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:39,360 Speaker 3: on and tie. A two team six point teaser, I 724 00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:44,799 Speaker 3: kind of want to include Houston. In fact, we are 725 00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:48,760 Speaker 3: including Houston. We're getting aggressive. We're going with a three 726 00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:52,960 Speaker 3: team teaser, the Chiefs from five and a half down 727 00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:56,160 Speaker 3: to plus a half point, Philly from six and a 728 00:39:56,200 --> 00:40:00,160 Speaker 3: half to minus half point, and Houston from plus two 729 00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:01,919 Speaker 3: and a half to plus eight and a half. 730 00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,879 Speaker 4: So a three team teaser, just so you know how 731 00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:08,320 Speaker 4: the math works on it. A three team six point 732 00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:13,279 Speaker 4: teaser will pay out plus one forty Okay, so one 733 00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:15,279 Speaker 4: hundred bucks to win one hundred and forty bucks, so 734 00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:18,239 Speaker 4: on and so forth. That's our first teaser of the year. 735 00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:21,080 Speaker 4: We will keep track of those as well. 736 00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:25,319 Speaker 3: I'll look at Look at the graphic. Wow, look at 737 00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:25,960 Speaker 3: the graphic. 738 00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:27,360 Speaker 4: US Exotic. 739 00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:28,920 Speaker 3: I like it. 740 00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:31,000 Speaker 2: Exotics Exotics. 741 00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:32,240 Speaker 3: I like it all right. 742 00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,520 Speaker 4: Now, do you have an offer you'd like to make me? 743 00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:37,480 Speaker 5: I do have an offer I'd like to make you, 744 00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:42,200 Speaker 5: all right. So this week's offer the Giants to remain 745 00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:46,600 Speaker 5: as the last undefeated team at fifty to one, and 746 00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,319 Speaker 5: we've also got the Dolphins to remain as the last 747 00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:54,000 Speaker 5: undefeated team at twenty six to one. Either take those 748 00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:57,920 Speaker 5: two bets and one of these delicious cupcakes that I 749 00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:01,120 Speaker 5: have under my seat. 750 00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,680 Speaker 3: You actually have cupcakes with you? Why do you have 751 00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:05,600 Speaker 3: cupcakes with you? 752 00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:07,920 Speaker 2: Bought them specifically to match the chair? 753 00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,240 Speaker 3: Oh? Let me see these? 754 00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:13,759 Speaker 2: Yeah? These are some Yeah. 755 00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:17,320 Speaker 3: So you're saying if I take one of these offers, 756 00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:21,080 Speaker 3: I get the cupcakes too. No, no, I think that's 757 00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:22,120 Speaker 3: what you're supposed to be saying. 758 00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:25,160 Speaker 4: But that's fine, no problem. Here's the thing. 759 00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:31,840 Speaker 3: I don't like the Dolphins at twenty six to one. 760 00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:36,440 Speaker 3: The Giants at fifty to one is interesting. So let's 761 00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,799 Speaker 3: look at this. I believe the Giants have a very 762 00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:44,319 Speaker 3: good chance at being four and oh okay, so who 763 00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:49,920 Speaker 3: are the other undefeated teams? Kansas City. Kansas City is 764 00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:55,719 Speaker 3: in Tampa next week, and then against Buffalo two weeks later, 765 00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:59,440 Speaker 3: and against San Francisco after that. He'll lose one of 766 00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:03,280 Speaker 3: those games, all right, So Kansas City max is out 767 00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:07,640 Speaker 3: at six and zero. Miami and Buffalo play each other 768 00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:10,320 Speaker 3: this week. I think Miami's gonna win. I'm sorry, Buffalo 769 00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:13,120 Speaker 3: is gonna win. So Miami's off the board. Who are 770 00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:18,000 Speaker 3: other undefeated teams? We talked about the Giants Philadelphia. Let's 771 00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:22,799 Speaker 3: see what they've got. Philadelphia is at their home for Jacksonville. 772 00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:27,319 Speaker 3: They're at Arizona, their home for Dallas. Maybe Dax back 773 00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:33,800 Speaker 3: by then Philadelphia, could you know? I think they max 774 00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:36,480 Speaker 3: out and then they're home for Pittsburgh. Philadelphia doesn't really 775 00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:37,879 Speaker 3: have a really tough game for a while. 776 00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:40,800 Speaker 4: They're interesting. Who are other undefeated teams? 777 00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:44,799 Speaker 3: Tampa? Tampa obviously could lose this week, right, and then 778 00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,239 Speaker 3: they play the Chiefs. So Tampa and the Chiefs, one 779 00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,239 Speaker 3: of them is gonna knock each other out. So what 780 00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:52,440 Speaker 3: do the Giants max out at? I think they're getting 781 00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:56,239 Speaker 3: to four and oh who at Green Bay Sunday, October ninth, 782 00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:59,480 Speaker 3: then home for Baltimore. All right, that's no good, But 783 00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,759 Speaker 3: fifty to one when I think they're getting to four 784 00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:10,160 Speaker 3: and zero, and I could then like hedge out of 785 00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:14,800 Speaker 3: it by if there's only other one undefeated team left, 786 00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:20,239 Speaker 3: betting on that team each week at fifty to one, 787 00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:24,319 Speaker 3: the Giants to be the last remaining undefeated team. I 788 00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:26,520 Speaker 3: think that's good value. That's the first time you've given 789 00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:27,720 Speaker 3: me one of these. That's good value. 790 00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:28,600 Speaker 2: I like it. 791 00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:32,440 Speaker 3: If we were to play out this scenario fifty times, 792 00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,560 Speaker 3: would at least one of those times the Giants be 793 00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:39,200 Speaker 3: the last remaining undefeated team. I say yes, I like 794 00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:42,480 Speaker 3: that bet. For the first time, I take that offer. 795 00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:45,400 Speaker 3: You understand what this means, because I've never taken one 796 00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,880 Speaker 3: of these. You are making the offer, so I'll make 797 00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:52,720 Speaker 3: it easy on you this time. I'll just bet fifty dollars. 798 00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:56,759 Speaker 3: If the Giants are not the last remaining undefeated team, 799 00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:00,000 Speaker 3: I owe you fifty dollars. But since you made the offer, 800 00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,920 Speaker 3: you're the house on this, so you if they are 801 00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:04,600 Speaker 3: the last remaining undefeated. 802 00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:08,080 Speaker 2: Team, you owe me books no hundred and fifty bucks. 803 00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,640 Speaker 3: No no, no, no, no no no. It is fifty to one, 804 00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,279 Speaker 3: and I bet if I bet one dollar, you'd owe 805 00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:18,759 Speaker 3: me fifty oh, twenty five hundred, so. 806 00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,160 Speaker 2: You bucks to get twenty five hundred day. 807 00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:23,839 Speaker 3: Now you're trying to but you're you're like, oh, maybe 808 00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,160 Speaker 3: I should make this bet too late. You made the offer. 809 00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:30,560 Speaker 3: I've accepted the offer. It is the first one. If 810 00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:34,840 Speaker 3: the Giants lose before you know, if they're not the 811 00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:37,759 Speaker 3: last remaining undefeated team, I could have done more, But 812 00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,319 Speaker 3: to fifty to twenty five hundred feels good. You got 813 00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:43,839 Speaker 3: me for ten thousands FID weeks ago. By the way, 814 00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:48,439 Speaker 3: speaking of that as of recording, let me check real quick. Oh, 815 00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:52,120 Speaker 3: we're getting close. Four hundred and ninety nine thousand, six 816 00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:53,120 Speaker 3: hundred and twenty one. 817 00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I did see that the churn number was going on. 818 00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,239 Speaker 4: Yeah, we're getting close. But I take it. 819 00:44:57,280 --> 00:44:59,200 Speaker 3: So the Giants, last remaining undefeated team, you own me 820 00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:01,520 Speaker 3: twenty five hundred buck. If they're not, I owe you 821 00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:02,280 Speaker 3: fifty dollars. 822 00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:04,919 Speaker 2: The cupcakes cancels out the fifty. 823 00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:08,239 Speaker 3: The fifty Yeah, so I don't have to pay you 824 00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,200 Speaker 3: even the fifty dollars. What I'm saying, I think you're 825 00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,400 Speaker 3: very confused. I ain't our guy. Nick Winer's here in 826 00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:15,560 Speaker 3: New York tried to add an element to the show, 827 00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:17,360 Speaker 3: and that being you offering the cupcakes. 828 00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:19,839 Speaker 2: Wait, so I owe you fifty dollars if it doesn't hit. 829 00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:24,000 Speaker 3: Right, No, I owe you fifty dollars if it doesn't. 830 00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:26,120 Speaker 2: Hit, and if it does hit, you owe me. 831 00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:27,440 Speaker 4: Twenty five hundred dollars. 832 00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:28,319 Speaker 2: Oh, what the hell? 833 00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:31,480 Speaker 3: You've made the offer. You should have talked to them 834 00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,240 Speaker 3: about it. You made the offer, Buddy, I accepted the offer. 835 00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,840 Speaker 3: It's the first one that I actually think was good value. 836 00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:50,720 Speaker 3: That's today's show.