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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets, and this's be Joey p joe Pizabia and

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Speaker 1: this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead to

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Speaker 1: the props for week five in the NFL, and we're

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Speaker 1: gonna call some touchdowns as well. But of course let

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Speaker 1: me bring in before we can begin. My two boys here,

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Speaker 1: mister Welsh and mister ericson the Undertaker, Andrew, the best

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Speaker 1: pick you've made all year is picking Pat Fitzmorris to

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Speaker 1: pick for you last week, four and one for FITZI

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Speaker 1: last week on the program. Gotta love that pinch hit,

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Speaker 1: So Andrew, it's time to have follow that up. Are

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Speaker 1: you prepared to follow up Fitzie?

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Speaker 2: Well, I haven't read Fitz's prop article yet that he

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Speaker 2: posts every week, so I don't feel as a confident

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Speaker 2: making my picks without having that to my side. But again,

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Speaker 2: just a reason to go check that article out that

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Speaker 2: Fitz does every single week, because the guy knows his stuff.

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Speaker 2: So hopefully I can at least finish three and two

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Speaker 2: this week.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of three and two, Welsh was three and two

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Speaker 1: last week, and just looking through the betting pros app

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Speaker 1: I am. Let's see plus fifty three three percent ROI

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Speaker 1: seven and five last week. So let's go with a

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Speaker 1: sixty three dollars profit there on the on the betting pros.

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Speaker 1: This is why you follow us, folks. You try to

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Speaker 1: get in there. Look, we're gonna have some bad weeks.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna have some good weeks. This is the nature

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Speaker 1: of the beast. And also it comes to touchdown calls

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Speaker 1: fifty percent on the year. Right here, just got my

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Speaker 1: fourth one last year here on the show. We each

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Speaker 1: picked two at the end. Make sure you stick around. Welsh,

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Speaker 1: you're up first today for the prop. So let's talk

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Speaker 1: about yours. And you're gonna begin with Tony Pollard and

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Speaker 1: the number of sixty nine and a half. So which

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Speaker 1: direction are you going?

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Speaker 3: We are gonna nicely go under. We're gonna kick it

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Speaker 3: off with it under. This was a smash under. I'll

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Speaker 3: tell you right now. Line's already moving line. Since I

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Speaker 3: took it, the line has moved on to sixty seven.

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Speaker 3: People can't smash that number enough. They cannot. The Cardinals,

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Speaker 3: which Tony Poller is going up against. Cardinals are currently

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Speaker 3: ninth in yards allowed on the ground of the NFL,

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Speaker 3: so they're giving up the ninth least rushing yards. Through

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Speaker 3: four games, only one running back has eclipsed sixty nine yards,

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Speaker 3: and that was Walker Pollard has only hit this in

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Speaker 3: one game this year, while seeing his carries decrease three

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Speaker 3: straight weeks. We've got the looming spear situation. PFF projections

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Speaker 3: around fifty eight. Fantasy prose, I think is like around

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Speaker 3: sixty one. Everything is under this number. We are just

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Speaker 3: seeing the steady decline. There was a lot of just

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Speaker 3: volume talk around Tony Pollard, but inefficiency as well, so

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Speaker 3: you know, defensively, the Cardinals are in a good spot.

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Speaker 3: I think with the decreased carries in general, I love

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Speaker 3: this under, and you know me, I don't love unders,

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Speaker 3: and I'm going to start the show with one, but

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Speaker 3: I instantly smash this one. It's going to keep going down.

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Speaker 3: I probably play it to sixty five. I think projections

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Speaker 3: or would even tell you to go a little bit more,

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Speaker 3: but my comfort level would be there. So sixty nine

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Speaker 3: point five is what I get to lock in, and

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Speaker 3: you can even check that over. I'm betting pros because

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Speaker 3: that is where I have got that. So under is

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Speaker 3: my first play of the day.

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Speaker 1: Boys, shout out to everybody you watch on YouTube. Also,

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Speaker 1: we just hit seventy thousand subscribers. We appreciate you. If

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Speaker 1: you walk on YouTube, subscribe or even if you're not watching,

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Speaker 1: go subscribe anyway to the feed here. Again, we're trying

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Speaker 1: to get to one hundred thousand, so we just keep

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Speaker 1: on climbing. We appreciate everybody who's watching on the YouTube.

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Speaker 1: All right, Andrew Ericson, let's get you our first pick

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Speaker 1: of Week five in.

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Speaker 2: I am not going with an under, but it's a

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Speaker 2: trend that's to do with underdog, So I'm going to

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Speaker 2: go with Bonnicks going over fifteen and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 2: And the trend that I was alluding to was Bonnicks

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Speaker 2: runs significantly more when his team is losing and he's

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Speaker 2: an underdog in the specific matchup. So in the last

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Speaker 2: eleven games where the Broncos have been underdogs entering the contest,

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Speaker 2: he's gone over fifteen and a half rushing yards in

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Speaker 2: nine of those contests. He's gone over this number straight

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Speaker 2: up in three of his four games this season, with

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Speaker 2: the one game that he didn't go over was last

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Speaker 2: week when they were heavy favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals,

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Speaker 2: so when they're protecting a comfortable lead, Bonnicks doesn't run.

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Speaker 2: But against the Philadelphia Eagles, where maybe they're going to

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Speaker 2: be in more trailing game, script, I expect Bonnicks to

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Speaker 2: use his leg. So I'm gonna go over on fifteen

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Speaker 2: and a half rushing yards for the Broncos quarter.

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Speaker 1: All right, So Andrew Erickson starting with an over. Welsh

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Speaker 1: starting with an under. What's happening here upside down is

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Speaker 1: officially here upon us? Welsh walk me through pick number

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Speaker 1: two for week five. It has to do with Omari

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Speaker 1: and Hampton's rushing yards. Now, look, we've got not one

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Speaker 1: but two tackles out now for the Chargers. We know

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Speaker 1: we lost Slater here at the beginning of the year.

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Speaker 1: Now Joe all dealing with a high ankle sprain. So

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Speaker 1: how does that affect Omary and Hampton for you this week?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean volume is the thing that pushes us

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Speaker 3: in the positive. For him, I'd also say this is

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Speaker 3: outside of just my notes, but explosive plays. So Marian

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Speaker 3: Hampton obviously can get He had like a hundred explosive yards.

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Speaker 3: Twenty five percent percentage of explosive yards come into play

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Speaker 3: for him. So I mean like he can make the

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Speaker 3: big plays, but obviously you're gonna have like a general

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Speaker 3: worry about some of the offensive line coming down. But

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Speaker 3: as a starter last week, he's on ninety two percent

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Speaker 3: of the team's rush attempts and he played eighty seven

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Speaker 3: point five percent of the snaps. By the way, the

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Speaker 3: line we're looking at here for Amarion Hampton is rushing

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Speaker 3: yards at sixty five point five. This is slowly creeping.

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Speaker 3: It was at sixty four point five, which, by the way,

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Speaker 3: our friends at hard Rock Bet have the best line

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Speaker 3: had that it is slowly moving up, so go and

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Speaker 3: check that out. He averaged six point six seven yards

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Speaker 3: before contact last week, so that could speak a little

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Speaker 3: bit to the offensive line worry. Like obviously the explosive

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Speaker 3: play plays into that a bit, but you're like, wow,

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Speaker 3: six point sixty seven that's elite. That's the offensive line

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Speaker 3: doing work. If they lose that, that's a little bit

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Speaker 3: of a negative. Well, he also averaged four yards over

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Speaker 3: four yards after contact, so big play there, whether it's

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Speaker 3: the offensive line helping out or him breaking away commanders.

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Speaker 3: So far this year, they're giving up on average twenty

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Speaker 3: four carries to running backs. And remember ninety two percent

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Speaker 3: of the team's rush attempts went to Hampton last week, which,

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Speaker 3: by the way, might be a rush attempt bet for

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Speaker 3: you guys. And eighty one yards on average are giving

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Speaker 3: up to running backs. With three of the first four

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Speaker 3: games this season, running backs have beat this rushing projection.

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Speaker 3: The projected numbers whether you go to I always like

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Speaker 3: to cite PFF versus US as well. I like both

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Speaker 3: of ours. Fantasy Pro's projection a high number, and the

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Speaker 3: PFF number is also well over this. Fantasy Pro's aggregate

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Speaker 3: projection is around eighty one yards rushing. So get on

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Speaker 3: this early while you can, if you believe it. There

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Speaker 3: obviously could be some worries about the offensive line, but

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Speaker 3: this is a guy that breaks tackles, make explosive plays,

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Speaker 3: and has all of the team's usage. So I'm Marion

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Speaker 3: Hampton over sixty five point five rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: Lock it up for number two for Andrew Erickson. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna go to Philadelphia and the Eagles here, and the

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Speaker 1: Eagles offense has been a little struggle bus despite the

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Speaker 1: fact that there're four and oh we had a big

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Speaker 1: conversation just yesterday on the program for the best bets.

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Speaker 1: Go check that out. To Roll had a really good diatribe,

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Speaker 1: and that's a way I can describe it. It's a diatribe.

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Speaker 1: So if you don't know what that word is, go

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Speaker 1: look it up. Learn something. Google machines here to help you.

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Speaker 1: So you think you about to crack the code here

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Speaker 1: potentially for a wager, Andrew, Let's talk about DeVonta Smith

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Speaker 1: here why he could have a big day against the

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Speaker 1: Denver Broncos. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I prefer a half glass full when I'm looking at

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Speaker 2: the Eagles because it really depends on which half you're

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Speaker 2: looking at, if their passing game is doing anything or not.

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Speaker 2: So devant Just Smith is going to go over forty

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Speaker 2: five and a half receiving yards. I just based on

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Speaker 2: the matchup Patrick Stertan, we know will lock up the

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Speaker 2: number one wide receiver on the opposing offense, and that's

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Speaker 2: going to be a J.

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Speaker 1: Brown.

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Speaker 2: So even though he's gonna be throwing his arms up

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Speaker 2: looking for flags complaining he's not getting the football, well,

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Speaker 2: DeVante Smith's gonna have the better matchup on paper from

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Speaker 2: the slot, so I think he's gonna see more targets

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Speaker 2: in volume in the specific matchup. You just look at

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Speaker 2: the number two receivers that have faced the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 2: They've been much more productive than the number one is

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Speaker 2: because of that really tough matchup. So although I usually

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Speaker 2: am betting unders when it comes to DeVonta Smith, when

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Speaker 2: aj Brown Dallas got it are healthy, Especially when it

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Speaker 2: comes to his receptions prop. I think that he can

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Speaker 2: be efficient with the more favorable matchup with an easier

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Speaker 2: cornerback to go over forty five and a half receiving yards,

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Speaker 2: which is his lowest receiving yards prop since the beginning

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Speaker 2: of last season. So it's really been depressed because of

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Speaker 2: how inconsistent Egos office has been. But given the matchup,

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Speaker 2: I really think that Smith can fly over this pretty easy.

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Speaker 1: All right, So DeVante Smith we are in on. Also

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Speaker 1: the other thing we're in on hard Rock Bet, and

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Speaker 1: right now is the time to download the app if

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Speaker 1: go take some free money. It's also our last show

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Speaker 1: before this week's games on Sunday, So if you're looking

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Speaker 1: for more insights on what you can bet, then you

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Speaker 1: You can follow Hertz has reached the end zone in

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Speaker 1: six consecutive games against the AFC. You've also got stats

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Speaker 1: like Buffalo's on thirteen in a row at home, so

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Speaker 1: in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Let's get to number

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Speaker 1: three on the list here, and well, we got a

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Speaker 1: rookie wide receiver that you're tea and up. So let's

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Speaker 1: talk about tech. McMillan.

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Speaker 3: Well, don't call him tech, call hin Tete Rowers. Mom's

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Speaker 3: gonna come after you.

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Speaker 1: Well, she knows where I live. Listen, missus McMillan, I'm

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Speaker 1: waiting for you. Okay, Well, my nd gets.

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Speaker 3: Her fifty connects the boy fifty six point five as

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Speaker 3: the receiving yard prop this week, and I like it.

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Speaker 3: Dolphins rank thirty two of thirty two in cover grades

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Speaker 3: over on p If you're listening at home, that's not good. Also, PFF,

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Speaker 3: I love this that Tetoro McMillan. It has on average

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Speaker 3: five point two yards per route run against man coverage,

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Speaker 3: which is first in the NFL for wide receivers. They're

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Speaker 3: going up against the Miami defense that runs man coverage

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Speaker 3: thirty one almost thirty two percent of the time, which

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Speaker 3: is tenth most in the NFL. McMillan has also beat

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Speaker 3: this receiving line in three or four matchups this season.

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Speaker 3: Projected numbers, they're in favor whether across both sites. You're

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Speaker 3: looking at your over sixty yards on most places that

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Speaker 3: I have looked, so you're getting a little bit of

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Speaker 3: extra juice there. This matchup works really well. They've got

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Speaker 3: to get him the ball. So Tetoroa McMillan fifty six

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Speaker 3: point five over receiving yards is bet number three, all right.

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Speaker 1: So bet number three in the books for the Welsh.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to bet number three here for Andrew Erickson Ericson.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about Jacobe Meyers. The number for him is

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Speaker 1: fifty four and a half receiving yards.

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Speaker 2: You want to go over or under I'm gonna go

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Speaker 2: over for Jigoti Myers is the nimam I like to

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Speaker 2: get him.

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Speaker 1: I think workshop that more.

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Speaker 3: I just I don't know what else he could do,

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Speaker 3: but that works work.

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Speaker 1: Don't worry.

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Speaker 2: I have better names and fun puns coming up.

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Speaker 1: So stay tuned. Oh oh good, everybody, everybody get excited.

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Speaker 1: All right, go ahead, boy. You know, I've never been

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Speaker 1: a guy who has no kids yet who has more

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Speaker 1: dad jokes than Andrew Erickson. I just want to point

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Speaker 1: that out always, for years now, Andrew Erickson has come

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Speaker 1: to the shows with the dad jokes. Go ahead, talk

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Speaker 1: about the bed.

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Speaker 2: So the Colts lost their number one cornerback from the slot,

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Speaker 2: Kenny Moore a couple of weeks ago, and they have

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Speaker 2: been ripped up from the slot. Second most Fantasy points

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Speaker 2: per game to slot receivers. That's what Jacoby Myers predominantly

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Speaker 2: runs his routes. He posted a really strong target share

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Speaker 2: last week and week four thirty three percent. Also saw

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Speaker 2: fifty nine percent of the team's air yards, and in fact,

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Speaker 2: he was the targeted receiver on not one, not two,

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Speaker 2: but all three of Genosmith's interceptions last week. So you

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Speaker 2: know that Geno Smith is not afraid to just try

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Speaker 2: to jam targets to Jacoby Myers. He's been over fifty

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Speaker 2: four and have receiving yards in three of his four

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Speaker 2: games already this season. And if those last targets not

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Speaker 2: get intercepted Chacle, Myers would probably be four for four

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Speaker 2: on his receiving arts. Prop Rock Bowers is still kind

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Speaker 2: of banged up dealing with this knee injury. He's still

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Speaker 2: struggling with this knee brace. So I think that means

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Speaker 2: Myers is going to be the number one pass catcher

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Speaker 2: in a really favorable matchup.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, give me the over. Speaking of Myers too,

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Speaker 1: just want to point out I think my favorite parlay

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Speaker 1: of the week is going to be an interception one

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Speaker 1: and you and I talked about it yesterday. I'd like

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Speaker 1: to add to it. I want to put Geno Smith

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Speaker 1: along with Carson Wentz and Dylan Gabriel. It just all

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Speaker 1: the picks. Pick City. That's the theme of the part.

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Speaker 1: Like Pixity Parlay, Pick City, parlay Baby, We're coming for

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Speaker 1: you all right. Speaking of prop bets too, again, prop

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Speaker 1: bet cheet sheets there for you for all of your

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Speaker 1: betting needs. Again, it's over at the Betting Pros app.

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Speaker 1: Just download the app today. That's all you got to do. Bord,

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Speaker 1: just go to betting pros dot com slash prop. So,

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Speaker 1: whether it's passing, rushing, receiving, no matter what the staff category,

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Speaker 1: you're going to see the best numbers, the best lines,

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Speaker 1: and the projections for the overs of the unders based

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Speaker 1: on our staff projection. So it's a great way to

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Speaker 1: bet props. If you're new to it, watch us for

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Speaker 1: the first time. Use the tools. Don't be a tool.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to Welsh and let's talk about

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Speaker 1: the Jets Cowboys game, a game that should yield a

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Speaker 1: fair amount of points. The Jets total I think is

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Speaker 1: very low. Twenty two and a half against the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: I think is kind of absurd. Cowboys defense just keeps

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Speaker 1: giving up giant numbers to everybody. So how do you

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Speaker 1: want to take that in? Well? Should dish it out

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Speaker 1: with a prop?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Well, my last two we're getting into stink fest where

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Speaker 3: we start to get stinky. The last one is going

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Speaker 3: to be my stink bet of the week, which we

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Speaker 3: hit last week with Jalen Tolbert and the reason.

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Speaker 1: I started him in a league, Well should I was

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Speaker 1: very happy that ball that Dak was trying to throw

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Speaker 1: away that he caught. I was so proud of you.

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Speaker 3: He didn't have a catch in the first half, but

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Speaker 3: we got them all in the second half, so we

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Speaker 3: got the over, So we got that stink bet. The

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Speaker 3: only reason that this is a stink bet is because

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Speaker 3: it's behind Justin Fields and not his rushing yards. We're

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Speaker 3: going to go Justin Field's pass yards one hundred and

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Speaker 3: eighty seven point five over. This is an approved betting

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Speaker 3: pros bet, by the way, if you check it out

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Speaker 3: on the cheat sheet. And I think this is going

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Speaker 3: to be pretty clear for every buddy Cowboys. They've given

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Speaker 3: up to quarterbacks this at least this number in each

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Speaker 3: of their last three outings. They have not only had

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Speaker 3: this number be beat, they've given up two hundred and

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Speaker 3: ninety eight yards or more in each of the three.

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Speaker 3: They're averaging over three hundred yards passing to quarterbacks through

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Speaker 3: all four games, so the first one, obviously they did

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Speaker 3: not go over this. The interesting thing about Fields is

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Speaker 3: he's actually broken this two hundred passing yard mark in

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Speaker 3: two of three games played this season. This is all

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Speaker 3: about how bad the Cowboys secondary and defense is. The

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Speaker 3: Cowboys rank and like the bottom five to seven in

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Speaker 3: between league coverage on corners and running backs, so wide

336
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Speaker 3: receivers and running back coverage stinks. They've got brace Hall,

337
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Speaker 3: they've got Garrett Wilson projections, and the reason that betting

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Speaker 3: Pros does like this one is pros projections have him

339
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Speaker 3: over two hundred passing yards. So the reason that it stinks.

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Speaker 1: Is because it's fields.

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Speaker 3: Fields could obviously, you know, throw fifteen pass attempts, we

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Speaker 3: know that in a realm of possibility, but the secondaries

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Speaker 3: in the coverage is so bad. This gives an opportunity

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Speaker 3: for Fields to get the ball in the air, probably

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Speaker 3: going to give him more time to throw. Garrett Wilson

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Speaker 3: is in line for a half decent day, but we're

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Speaker 3: going to go over the one hundred and eighty seven

348
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Speaker 3: passing yards to one eighty eight plus on justin fields

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Speaker 3: against this very poorsh Dallas defense.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's continue on here with the next pick

351
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Speaker 1: on the board for Andrew Rickson. This time we're going

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Speaker 1: to go to the London game with the Minnesota Vikings

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Speaker 1: and Jordan Mason. So obviously we have Dylan Gabriel starting

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Speaker 1: in that game. You've got the Vikings who are staying

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Speaker 1: over in the United Kingdom. So ericson how does Jordan

356
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Speaker 1: Mason equate for you to money in week five?

357
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Speaker 2: Taking the under on Jordan Mason and his receptions under

358
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Speaker 2: one and a half catches for Mason, I think that

359
00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,280
Speaker 2: there's going to be a lot of unders in this game.

360
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Speaker 2: Just looking up the really really low total, you have

361
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Speaker 2: Carson Wentz going up, it's Dylan Gabriel, and I think

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Speaker 2: that the Vikings kind of approaches with a pretty conservative

363
00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,240
Speaker 2: game plan. I don't think they need to do anything extreme.

364
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Speaker 2: If they can just play defense, rattle Gabriel, I think

365
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Speaker 2: they can escape with a seventeen to ten, seventeen to

366
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Speaker 2: seven type of win. Here in London. Mason took a

367
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Speaker 2: back seat to Xavier Scott as a receiver out of

368
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Speaker 2: the backfield more than running backs. Last week, Mason ran

369
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Speaker 2: fewer routes than Scott did. You just drew three targets

370
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Speaker 2: to Scott's eight targets. And I honestly think a lot

371
00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,920
Speaker 2: of these target numbers are just inflated because Carson Wentz

372
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Speaker 2: had fifty four dropbacks in that game against the Steelers,

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Speaker 2: Like that is not what the Minnesota Vikings want to

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00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,160
Speaker 2: do like the less drawbacks, Wentz has the better because

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Speaker 2: the last times he drops back to throw out the

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Speaker 2: last time he's likely to make a mistake and turned

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Speaker 2: the ball over to a really stout Cleveland Browns defense.

378
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Speaker 2: So the Browns have allowed just three and a half

379
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Speaker 2: receptions per game to running backs, which the bottom five

380
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Speaker 2: mark in the NFL. So, given that Mason isn't the

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00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,000
Speaker 2: primary pass catching back, I don't necessarily think that this

382
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,360
Speaker 2: is a matchup where they need to feature him, especially

383
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,920
Speaker 2: if the Vikings are playing with the lead, they are favorited.

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Speaker 2: It isn't a neutral game site, but I think it'd

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Speaker 2: be more of Mason getting rushing attempts than receptions out

386
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Speaker 2: of the backfield. So I'm gonna take the under.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So yeah, Scott was very active in that game

388
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Speaker 1: last week. Want you, to the chagrin of everybody, what

389
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Speaker 1: the hell where'd that come from? Let's get to well

390
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,360
Speaker 1: just picking, let's stay in London here. Dylan Gabriel that

391
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Speaker 1: under center, so we'll see how that works out. But

392
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Speaker 1: we also have center Tillman now for that game, so

393
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Speaker 1: he's gonna miss some time. That brings up Isaiah Bond

394
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Speaker 1: where the hot free agents in the fantasy markets, So

395
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Speaker 1: how can we cash in that fantasy when it comes

396
00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:16,880
Speaker 1: to Isaiah Bond in this game stink.

397
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Speaker 3: Bet of the week we are it was Tolbert last week.

398
00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:22,480
Speaker 3: We're going to Isaiah Bonnet feels great.

399
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Speaker 1: If it smells like money, I'm in for the stink bet.

400
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 1: I'm just putting it out there, baby. That's right.

401
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,120
Speaker 3: You know what, in some cheese, it can taste great

402
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,159
Speaker 3: and can smell super nasty. And that's going to be

403
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:34,520
Speaker 3: the Isaiah Bond bet here. Receiving yards are twenty seven

404
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Speaker 3: point five. Why we like this though, even though Gabriel

405
00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:40,920
Speaker 3: is in a quarterback We had six targets last week

406
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Speaker 3: obviously with flack O, but six targets last week for

407
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:46,360
Speaker 3: fifty eight yards from Bond. He ended up running seventy

408
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Speaker 3: one percent of routes and this is a number I

409
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:52,720
Speaker 3: really like. Running twenty seven routes on thirty seven dropbacks.

410
00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,120
Speaker 3: And as you mentioned, Tilman is now out, he's kind

411
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Speaker 3: of a Bond is listed as a starter. They also

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00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,359
Speaker 3: ended up using him in different spots. They put him

413
00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:01,399
Speaker 3: in the backfield, going to line them a bit wide receiver,

414
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 3: kind of a gadget playmaker for them. Obviously they got

415
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,200
Speaker 3: fan and they're high on these rookies. They're going all

416
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 3: in on it. He also received and hopefully this is

417
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,040
Speaker 3: going to carry over from Flacco to Gabriel an almost

418
00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:14,600
Speaker 3: twenty one percent first read percentage. So you go and

419
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Speaker 3: look at projections as well. We're over forty on PFF,

420
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 3: we're over well over thirty on Fantasy Pro. So both

421
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,120
Speaker 3: projection systems that I like to look are really into

422
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 3: this one receptions line between two point seven and three

423
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,439
Speaker 3: and a half. But this is an offense that is

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Speaker 3: going to also use a lot of play action. This

425
00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 3: is a playmaker when they're not a lot of playmakers

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Speaker 3: out there. He had six targets. He's moved, he's a

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Speaker 3: I think it's ten targets over the last two games.

428
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Speaker 3: He's moving up into this offense. And this is an

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Speaker 3: incredibly incredibly low number. So, yes, it's stinky, but it's

430
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Speaker 3: along the lines of Tolbert. This is why I like it.

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Speaker 3: I gotta tell you two other little parts of this.

432
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 3: I really battled between doing the receptions at two point five.

433
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:57,879
Speaker 3: That's a number that you like as well. But I mean,

434
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,720
Speaker 3: Bond is a big playmaker one catch like the iaminor

435
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,440
Speaker 3: one last week. He could get this, and you want

436
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,600
Speaker 3: to play extra sneaky. I've seen twenty eight point five

437
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,439
Speaker 3: rushing and receiving because they use him out of the backfield.

438
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,440
Speaker 3: He's only had one rush this year. He had one

439
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 3: rush for nine yards. Would not be surprised, especially because

440
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 3: I know the Vikings are first in Dvoa that if

441
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 3: they try to get the ball in his hands a

442
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 3: little bit more, he could rush. That might be another pivot.

443
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 3: And to be honest with you, I think I might

444
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 3: place that that just in case, because I already like

445
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,560
Speaker 3: the receiving yard total over and that gives me one

446
00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 3: extra little bump on the rushing. So a couple different ways.

447
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:33,120
Speaker 3: If you want to play in the mud. For Isaiah

448
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:34,400
Speaker 3: Bond from my final bet.

449
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:36,159
Speaker 1: This week, I think I do. I kind of like it.

450
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 1: The stinky bet of the week. It works for me.

451
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 2: Man.

452
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:42,760
Speaker 1: Let's go to another one too, a player who's terrifically talented,

453
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:44,919
Speaker 1: but certainly the results have been a little stinky for

454
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Bengals Jamar Chase. Why will the sixty two

455
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,879
Speaker 1: and a half finally be it over? For Chase? This week?

456
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:52,880
Speaker 1: Andrew Well.

457
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,920
Speaker 2: Jamar Chase guys is averaging one hundred and sixty five

458
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 2: receiving yards at home this season. Yes, he's only played

459
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,119
Speaker 2: one game. This is obviously very tongue in cheek, but

460
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 2: he tends to play better at home. Jake Browning is

461
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 2: a much better quarterback at home than playing on the road.

462
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,640
Speaker 2: When he's not facing the Denver Broncos and the Minnesota

463
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:10,880
Speaker 2: Vikings and a lot of these tough defitsive matchups. He's

464
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 2: facing the Detroit Lions, who are going to be without

465
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:15,920
Speaker 2: Dj Reed, one of their starting cornerbacks, and Terry On

466
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,879
Speaker 2: Arnold is banged up again with another injury. So I

467
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 2: think this Lion's secondary is susceptible to some big plays

468
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 2: from Jamar Chase. We know that he's going to get

469
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 2: a ton of volume, especially after last week when he

470
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:27,360
Speaker 2: was not getting nearly as much as the rock. We'll

471
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,120
Speaker 2: talking about this a j brown squeaky wheel. I'm looking

472
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 2: at the Jamar Chase squeaky wheel where the last time

473
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,080
Speaker 2: we saw him play at home, Jake Browning was looking

474
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,360
Speaker 2: for him on first read, second read, and the third read.

475
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:39,679
Speaker 2: And the other part of this that I want to

476
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 2: highlight is a trend that I'm starting to pick up

477
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 2: on is the certain clamp to Prop Champ. That's what

478
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,919
Speaker 2: I'm calling it, because every receiver that has faced Patrick

479
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 2: Surtan the following week has gone over their receiving arts

480
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 2: PROP and that number is always coming depressed because they

481
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 2: have a bad week against the number one cornerback in

482
00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 2: the NFL. And this is a trend I like buying

483
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 2: into because it's been bad receivers that have done. Calvin

484
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 2: Ridley went over his receiving arts brought the week after

485
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,640
Speaker 2: facing Patrick certain and he has been terrible all season long.

486
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 2: So it is a perfect three to zero. And with

487
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 2: Jamar Chase getting this suppressed number because he went up

488
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 2: against Patrick Surtan on Monday Night Football and everybody saw it.

489
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 2: This is a value proposition for Jamar Chase. You're never

490
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 2: going to see it this low at sixty two and

491
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 2: a half receiving year. So I am hammering the over

492
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 2: and I mean I'm probably gonna I'll bet this too,

493
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 2: because I think that he goes over one hundred yards.

494
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 1: I think somebody's going to the shed. Welsh. I think

495
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,640
Speaker 1: you're taking the ladder out. So it sounds like ladder that.

496
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,119
Speaker 2: It's one of the ladder bet players that are actually

497
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 2: good too.

498
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 3: It is it is.

499
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 1: Too bad the quarterback is Jake Browning. So let's go

500
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 1: go ahead to the touchdown scores for Week five and

501
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 1: our predictions there. Remember, you can go to Betting pros

502
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 1: dot com slash touchdown if you're looking for the edge

503
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,959
Speaker 1: to bet these tds. Our Touchdown Score report compares anytime

504
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: touchdown stats to the PROMP bet odds and projections to

505
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,880
Speaker 1: help identify the very best in any time touchdown bet

506
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 1: So again, Betting Pros dot slash Touchdown. That's the place

507
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,320
Speaker 1: to get the touchdown score report. And I will kick

508
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 1: things off here since I am on the leader board

509
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 1: with four tuddies on the year and I got I

510
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,640
Speaker 1: feel pretty confident we get two for two this week,

511
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,679
Speaker 1: that would be way to go. Let's go at Garrett

512
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 1: Wilson plus one thirty right now. You can get for

513
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:21,120
Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson New York Jets against Dallas Cowboys. Look, there's

514
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 1: one place that ball goes when Justin Fields throws it,

515
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 1: and it goes to Garrett Wilson. Folks, this is not

516
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 1: rocket science. I like even for two touchdowns, you could

517
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 1: get first half touchdown. You could play this up however

518
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 1: you want, as many way as you want. But Garrett Wilson,

519
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 1: I think at least gets one score here against the

520
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys secondary that's been absolutely atrocious. And Mecca Egg

521
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 1: Buka stick it with my Baker Mayfield upset special of

522
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 1: the week and at buket plus one thirty five himself,

523
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 1: I think a pretty good bet to score a touchdown.

524
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 1: He is a playmaker in that offense. God Wins not

525
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 1: quite up to speed, Evans is out at Buka will

526
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 1: show up even against a tough Seattle defense. He is

527
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 1: gonna show up and make a play because that's what

528
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 1: that man does. Well, let's talk about your time TD

529
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: calls four week five in the NFL.

530
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and by the way, I wanted to make a

531
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 3: note on the touchdown calls, so we were talking about

532
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 3: this off air. One thing we should have done in

533
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 3: tracking was play r OI. But I don't know if

534
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 3: people know this. We don't play minus touchdown bets. Whenever

535
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 3: we do this every single week, we have done a

536
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 3: plus money bet. So just everybody knows when we say, like, hey,

537
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 3: you know this, how many touchdown calls? It's all plus

538
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 3: money plays. And Joe's gotten four plus money plays, which

539
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,360
Speaker 3: is positive. So better way maybe in the future is well,

540
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 3: we'll track it.

541
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:27,919
Speaker 1: Minus. We've talked about this on the show, Like, I

542
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:29,640
Speaker 1: think one of the first ones I got that first

543
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: week was taking the anytime I'll touch down in the

544
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 1: first half right, cutting them in half. I do that

545
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: a lot on the primetime shows. Erickson was making fun

546
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 1: of me. He said, man, you're so good on the

547
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 1: primetime parlays and the touchdown calls. I said, I'm like

548
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 1: the I'm like the anti Kirk Cousins man. I just

549
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 1: I can't. I can on some days, but but I'm

550
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 1: so good when the lights are on. And I got

551
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 1: the standalone What.

552
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 2: Does that mean that you shop though? Kirk Cousins chops that.

553
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:54,199
Speaker 2: What's the opposite of calls?

554
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 1: I guess Ralph Lauren like, I don't know, I'm very spiff.

555
00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 1: I do like the little rack of an ARMANI guy, Okay.

556
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 3: I don't know what it is, but I just wanted

557
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 3: to make that as like a little caveat just because

558
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 3: like we were talking about it and it was on

559
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 3: my mind. All right, So getting to my touchdown calls

560
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 3: all plus money plays, I mentioned him before Tetoroha McMillan.

561
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 3: I am going to play him at plus one forty

562
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 3: this week. I kind of already gave you all the

563
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 3: stats as far as man coverage goes. Dolphins have also

564
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:22,439
Speaker 3: given up seven passing touchdowns through four games, and at

565
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: least one in every single game. You got choot, but

566
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:25,400
Speaker 3: a little bit more banged.

567
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: Um.

568
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,399
Speaker 3: It is Teto McMillan than a bunch of other dudes.

569
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 3: So I like tetorrow to score a touchdown and then

570
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 3: probably my actually favorite this week is almost two to one.

571
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 3: Michael Pittman Daniel Jones, fifth most efficient quarterback in the

572
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 3: NFL against zone coverage. Jones says four hundred and fifty

573
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 3: four passing yards off of play action this year, which

574
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 3: is first among quarterbacks. The Raiders defense ranks thirtieth in

575
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 3: yards per play allowed with play action, and by the way,

576
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 3: Michael Pittman is targeted at the ninth highest rate among

577
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 3: wide receivers against zone coverage, and the Raiders play zone

578
00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 3: coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Michael Pittman

579
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 3: plus one ninety any time touchdown?

580
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,120
Speaker 1: All right, Andrew Erickson, let's cap off two more touchdown calls.

581
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 2: For Week five, I'm going to continue to roll with

582
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 2: my guy Jamar Chase at plus one sixty two, score

583
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 2: a touchdown. I just think he's gonna have a monster game,

584
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 2: so I'm gonna go with that. And then my other

585
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 2: player is a guy who caught two touchdowns on Monday

586
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 2: Night Football, Darren Waller at plus twenty five. He was

587
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: put on earth to do two things, make rap albums

588
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 2: and catch touchdowns. So Darren Waller for me in the

589
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 2: red zone, that's his role in this offense. I don't

590
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 2: know how many snaps he's going to play, but when

591
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 2: the Dolphins are going to score, he's going to be

592
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 2: part of the game plan. They're facing the Carolina Panthers,

593
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 2: one of the worst defenses overall and against tight ends.

594
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 2: Hunter Henry score a tight end against them last week

595
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 2: with the Patriots. So Darren Waller, the weeks where he's

596
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 2: healthy are very precious. We don't know how many games

597
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,679
Speaker 2: he's gonna last all season long, but I think that

598
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 2: his touchdown chances are are still pretty good, especially after

599
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 2: catching two last week.

600
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 3: So can you imagine putting us dollars on Darren Waller

601
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 3: in this day and age, It's amazing I'm here for it.

602
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 1: Let's do it. Yeah, I mean certainly, and of course

603
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 1: don't forget everybody. You can also follow us on the

604
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: Betting Pros app when you download that, use all the tools,

605
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 1: don't be a tool. And of course you could follow

606
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: these tools right here on the Betting Pros app. Just

607
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 1: put our names in right there to see what we're

608
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,439
Speaker 1: in on this week. And of course subscribe to the

609
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: YouTube channel and the podcast wherever you get your pods.

610
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: That'll do for us, But the story of the game

611
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 1: goes on for the Welsh and Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey p.

612
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids. Enjoy Week five in

613
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 1: the NFL. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

614
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

615
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

616
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting

617
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 1: Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to

618
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros