Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a Bloomberg weekly
Speaker 1: market podcast. I'm Sara Pants, a reporter on the Cross
Speaker 1: Asset team, and I'm Mike Reagan, a senior editor on
Speaker 1: the Markets team. This week on the show, we've gotten
Speaker 1: some of the first real reads into the effect of
Speaker 1: the coronavirus on the economy. It's disheartening to say, but
Speaker 1: a record six point six million people filed for unemployment
Speaker 1: insurance in the last week, a record by far. While
Speaker 1: markets remain volatile, resiliency has remained, and that too as
Speaker 1: oil prices fell to the lowest since two thousand and one.
Speaker 1: You know, and Sarah, I feel like we jinxed it
Speaker 1: by having the Craziest Thing we Saw in Markets on
Speaker 1: this show, because now all of a sudden, we're almost
Speaker 1: year into the show, and I feel like everything in
Speaker 1: markets is crazy. It's it's all. We should have just
Speaker 1: named the podcast the Craziest Things we Saw in Markets
Speaker 1: this week, and then it could just be a general
Speaker 1: market recap. What do you think maybe we should have
Speaker 1: Although we also did get someone we officially launched the
Speaker 1: podcast with the name What Goes Up? They said, you know,
Speaker 1: you're just waiting for what goes down to happen to then, yeah,
Speaker 1: that might that might have by the jinxta too, Sarah,
Speaker 1: before we start talking about the markets and get into
Speaker 1: and introduced our guests, I'm curious what life is like
Speaker 1: for you. You've been quarantined there in Manhattan for the
Speaker 1: duration of this virus. I I stopped going into New
Speaker 1: York City round March twelve. I never thought i'd i'd
Speaker 1: ever missed that daily commute from New Jersey, but sure enough, Uh, strangely,
Speaker 1: I'm beginning to miss it. But I'm wondering. You know,
Speaker 1: we have listeners around the world on this podcast. I'm
Speaker 1: sure a lot of people are as curious as I
Speaker 1: am as far as what's just what's life like in
Speaker 1: Manhattan right now? In this situation. You know, it's really strange,
Speaker 1: especially for the city, and it's it's really quiet, which
Speaker 1: when you think of Manhattan obvious so you don't think quiet.
Speaker 1: But if I were to go to my window right
Speaker 1: now and just look outside, I likely wouldn't see a
Speaker 1: single soul. I mean, I try to get outside every
Speaker 1: now and then to go on walks, but keep my distance.
Speaker 1: But you can pretty much walk in the middle of
Speaker 1: the street. There's hardly any cars around, um, which is
Speaker 1: so strange to say. Usually you would see taxis, there'll
Speaker 1: be plenty of traffic. Now you're walking in the middle
Speaker 1: of the street to keep your six feet distance. But yeah,
Speaker 1: it's just there's an eerie feel. Especially it rained a
Speaker 1: lot this week, so it was particularly eerie because there
Speaker 1: was no one around and it was just gray and rainy. Um.
Speaker 1: But it's definitely strange. It doesn't it doesn't feel like
Speaker 1: the city. It's such a weird phenomenon. You have these
Speaker 1: markets in just this spasm of turmoil, and your New
Speaker 1: York City is quieter than it's ever been. It's just
Speaker 1: a very surreal experience all around. It's it's weird still
Speaker 1: being here. I can promise you that. Well, let's get
Speaker 1: right to the markets then, and UM happy to introduce
Speaker 1: a new guest, first time on the show. Her name
Speaker 1: is Diane Jaffee. She is a senior portfolio manager at TCW. Diane,
Speaker 1: welcome to the show. Thank you, grilled to be here.
Speaker 1: And I don't know where you're quarantining. Maybe you're in
Speaker 1: the city too or not anymore. I was there with
Speaker 1: Sarah for a while, but now we're in Thermon, Vermont.
Speaker 1: I think Vermont would be one of my top choices
Speaker 1: to uh to quarantine and get some fresh air and
Speaker 1: uh blue skies and everything. So good wise choice, social
Speaker 1: distance all the time in vermach nothing's changed. It comes natural,
Speaker 1: especially if you tell them you're from New Jersey. They
Speaker 1: keep their distance. I've I've learned in But Diane, let's
Speaker 1: talk about these crazy markets. Because I know you're a
Speaker 1: value focused investor. You your senior portfolio manager at tc W.
Speaker 1: You manage several funds or at least on the management
Speaker 1: committee of several um But I I gotta say I've
Speaker 1: been doing this for many years now. I won't tell
Speaker 1: everyone how many. I like to keep the illusion that
Speaker 1: I'm a young, hip her. But I don't think I've
Speaker 1: ever seen anything like this as far as just the
Speaker 1: complete unknowns about what the earnings outlook is, what the
Speaker 1: GDP outlook is? UH. And I know you focus a
Speaker 1: lot on dividends and dividend growth. What the you know
Speaker 1: where the stable dividends are going to come from? Who's
Speaker 1: going to cut their dividends? So I guess you know,
Speaker 1: to make a long question very short, like how do
Speaker 1: you do your job in this environment when there's so
Speaker 1: many unknowns. Well, Luckily, I have a great team of
Speaker 1: analysts who work with me. We have the largest internal
Speaker 1: research team on the equity side at TCW, with six
Speaker 1: dedicated analysts. And I'm proud to say that our strategies
Speaker 1: are going to hit their twenty five year GIFTS compliant
Speaker 1: track record this month of April. So um that you know.
Speaker 1: So we've been through a lot of cycles together. We've
Speaker 1: worked together for eight team years on average. But you're right,
Speaker 1: this is different. This is a pandemic and um, and
Speaker 1: you can get bits and pieces of inform Asian if
Speaker 1: you go to Stars back in two thousand and three
Speaker 1: or a bowla and two thousand and eighteen. But um,
Speaker 1: really we haven't seen anything like this for over a
Speaker 1: hundred years back to night. It really is unbelievable. And
Speaker 1: you shared a timeline with us in the notes, and
Speaker 1: I thought it was really great. It's a stylized timeline,
Speaker 1: and essentially what you did was you lay out the
Speaker 1: months and you lay out at different areas of where
Speaker 1: we have passed and what we are looking forward to,
Speaker 1: so as what we have passed or in the midst
Speaker 1: of some are consumer panic and social distancing, US cases, Peak,
Speaker 1: policymakers Act, which have all happened. Now where you say
Speaker 1: the next test of the market is that's earnings downgrades
Speaker 1: because even when we look at bottoms up analysts estimates,
Speaker 1: they haven't really haven't been able to keep up. Right now,
Speaker 1: they're only estimating pretty much a modest decline in earnings
Speaker 1: for the year. I mean, what are you guys expecting
Speaker 1: once we potentially do see the is flowing in or
Speaker 1: once earning season does start in a few weeks, what
Speaker 1: do you expect and how do you expect the market
Speaker 1: to take that? Yeah, I think there will definitely be
Speaker 1: a real test of the market bottom we saw in
Speaker 1: the last week of March. I'd like to source a
Speaker 1: fund Strett. You know, they provided that graphic, which is
Speaker 1: great and I think it does help give a realistic
Speaker 1: picture within days or weeks of what we can anticipate.
Speaker 1: But earning season, we'll start with the big banks. They're
Speaker 1: on the front lines of this and um and it
Speaker 1: gives me a lot of comfort just to know that
Speaker 1: this economic backbone of the economy is really in a
Speaker 1: good place right now, you know, much different than it
Speaker 1: was in two thousand and eight, we've been stress tests,
Speaker 1: we've been steacard, we've been defast and so they're they're
Speaker 1: really going to be the front lines here in terms
Speaker 1: of the conduit for the Treasury and the Fed to
Speaker 1: reach out to businesses, to reach out to lenders, to
Speaker 1: reach out to borrowers, um, and so it will be
Speaker 1: very telling what the banks say. Where do dividends and
Speaker 1: by backs typically fit into your investment process? Goldman Sacks
Speaker 1: had an analysis out saying that already this year we've
Speaker 1: seen roughly a quarter of the amount of by bucks
Speaker 1: we saw last year already pulled by companies. I mean,
Speaker 1: is this disheartening to you, guys, or do you feel
Speaker 1: as though that's okay? Because companies have to allocate cash
Speaker 1: where necessary at this point in time, or maybe keep
Speaker 1: more cash on their balance sheets. I think, um that
Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of dividends because it not only
Speaker 1: says that the there's good stewardship by the management teams
Speaker 1: of those companies saying, Okay, we've already fulfilled what we
Speaker 1: need to do for capex or you growth opportunities, and
Speaker 1: so we're returning cash to our shareholders in the form
Speaker 1: of dividends, and no entity likes to cut or suspend dividends,
Speaker 1: so they have to think long and hard. In fact,
Speaker 1: said the other day that you know, even before the coronavirus,
Speaker 1: they were contemplating any kind of black swan event to
Speaker 1: make sure that those dividends were safe. So, for US,
Speaker 1: dividends are one of our five valuation factors. We look
Speaker 1: at price to book, price to cash flow, price to sales,
Speaker 1: price to earnings ratio, and dividend yields, and we particularly
Speaker 1: like it when those dividends can grow over time. UM
Speaker 1: So buy backs, you know, I think you have to
Speaker 1: be very careful with them because you know, all those
Speaker 1: buybacks companies made last year or in January February this year,
Speaker 1: it looked pretty poor investments. And I don't want of
Speaker 1: the strategies at TCW is a dividend appreciation fund. And
Speaker 1: I just have to assume that the universe of companies
Speaker 1: that are going to be able to increase their dividends,
Speaker 1: uh this year, maybe even next year, just it's call
Speaker 1: it the near future. It must be a very swiftly
Speaker 1: shrinking universe. I mean, where could one possibly look for
Speaker 1: sort of a dividend aristocrat in this scenario, a company
Speaker 1: that is able going to have the strength to be
Speaker 1: able to increase its dividend. I mean, am I right?
Speaker 1: That that's that's almost a very much a dying breed
Speaker 1: right now right there. Definitely know IBM right has famous
Speaker 1: stalwart provider of dividends. That's a big holding for us UM.
Speaker 1: You know, our goal is to give our clients a
Speaker 1: diversified value portfolio that has capital return plus dividend appreciation.
Speaker 1: So uh, right now are yields in the dividend appreciation
Speaker 1: they're higher than SMP and the Russell one thousand value.
Speaker 1: We do have to be super careful about UM finding
Speaker 1: the companies that can. Definitely, Chevron won't increase its dividend,
Speaker 1: right They've already said that, but they're doing everything to
Speaker 1: preserve their dividend and UM and that's important to us
Speaker 1: that they've been disciplined for the last five years or
Speaker 1: so that when we do have a pandemic, they are
Speaker 1: able to continue to provide their shareholders with their dividends.
Speaker 1: So dividends sanctity as well as the appreciation is going
Speaker 1: to matter now going forward. Earlier on in the show, Diane,
Speaker 1: you said that you believe that what we would likely
Speaker 1: retest the lows that we saw back in March in
Speaker 1: the market. And I bring this up because you guys
Speaker 1: are in a survey and in the survey, seventy of
Speaker 1: respondent said that they believe that what we're seeing now
Speaker 1: and what we saw particularly last week is a bear
Speaker 1: market rally and will likely retest the lows. Why are
Speaker 1: you so sure or why do you believe that we
Speaker 1: will retest the lows? And why do you think so
Speaker 1: many people out there believe the same as well. It's
Speaker 1: like Warren Buffett said that when the tide goes out,
Speaker 1: you can see who's wearing their bathing suits. And that's
Speaker 1: what's going to happen with earning suitis right? You know?
Speaker 1: You might think this company that you own, um, you know,
Speaker 1: has the balance sheet and income statement to uh persevere
Speaker 1: through this environment, and then reality hits like a pie
Speaker 1: of face. So um, that's why earning season will be
Speaker 1: so super important because while we won't have a full quarter,
Speaker 1: test will have um, you know, the latter half of
Speaker 1: March for fiscal year quarterly earnings report, but we certainly
Speaker 1: will start to hear company guidance and and I think
Speaker 1: that's when reality will hit. Yeah, diet, I wanted to
Speaker 1: bring up a good question from a listener on Twitter,
Speaker 1: UH and see what your thoughts are. His handle is
Speaker 1: at j y Squall, and he said, I'm watching for
Speaker 1: this week's episode to understand how can the market be
Speaker 1: up when the jobless claims are skyrocketing? Now, specifically, I
Speaker 1: think I can answer his question for that day. He
Speaker 1: he wrote to us on Thursday, when President Trump had
Speaker 1: tweeted about his hopes for Saudi Arabia and Russia to
Speaker 1: UH cut oil production to to bolster that market. And
Speaker 1: I think that was a big part of that bounce
Speaker 1: that day. It's sort of faded as the day went on,
Speaker 1: as people realized maybe this was a little bit of
Speaker 1: wishful thinking on the presence part. But in the bigger
Speaker 1: scheme of things, you know, we you see these ferocious
Speaker 1: rebounds in the middle of bear markets like we saw
Speaker 1: in fact, you know, the Dow was technically in a
Speaker 1: in a bull market that, like like Sarah wrote about,
Speaker 1: up off its lows. I'm just trying to figure out
Speaker 1: if you have any sense of who does the buying
Speaker 1: at that point. I mean to me, it's almost as
Speaker 1: if traders understand sort of the playbook for a bear market,
Speaker 1: that you get these huge bounces in the middle of
Speaker 1: a market that is in the longer term trending downward.
Speaker 1: I mean, do you think it's as simple as that,
Speaker 1: sort of these fast twitch traders that that sort of
Speaker 1: take command of the market at times like this when
Speaker 1: real fundamental investors may be still on the sidelines more
Speaker 1: or less, there is a lot of cash on the sidelines.
Speaker 1: Still surprising to me actually, um, considering how long and
Speaker 1: far the school market was. But you know, everyone likes
Speaker 1: to look in the rear view mirror in two thousand
Speaker 1: and eight, two thousand and nine were so horrible that
Speaker 1: a lot of people kept cash on the sidelines. What's
Speaker 1: um making it very difficult for investors in the in
Speaker 1: the here and now is that for the last thirty
Speaker 1: days or so, the stock moves have been plus or
Speaker 1: minus five percent. That's on heard of. That's an unprecedented
Speaker 1: type of alatility. We're a big believer in dollar cost averaging. Uh.
Speaker 1: If we have found great opportunities in the market because
Speaker 1: of this set off, and you think the catalysts there
Speaker 1: for the future, we wouldn't go full out and buy
Speaker 1: the biggest position UM we would normally hold in the portfolio.
Speaker 1: I think this is a really good strategy for all investors.
Speaker 1: You know, leg into the position, um, because tomorrow maybe
Speaker 1: down or tomorrow might be up. So UM, i'd like
Speaker 1: to I'd like to offer that really time tested advice.
Speaker 1: And UM, yeah, this is once we once we there
Speaker 1: are two hundred and sixties seven drugs in trial right now,
Speaker 1: whether to ameliorate or be a potential vaccine for the coronavirus.
Speaker 1: Something is going to work. You know, they're they're making
Speaker 1: do with antibiotics or old malaria UM drugs that are
Speaker 1: on the shelf that they're trying to dust off. But
Speaker 1: we're going to find something. And this volatility is because
Speaker 1: people just don't now and we do need some some
Speaker 1: hope and resolution in terms of the disease to help
Speaker 1: us look forward for the longer term. But I will say,
Speaker 1: in terms of your comment about you know, how could
Speaker 1: the market be up when John was claims are so high.
Speaker 1: The market is an anticipatory animal and we like to
Speaker 1: look forward. UM. I don't think anybody thinks this is
Speaker 1: going to be the peak in the job was claims
Speaker 1: Um but the markets will advance, uh when they can
Speaker 1: see beyond that, and that's super important. Over the next
Speaker 1: six to twelve months. Investors are looking at far out.
Speaker 1: So you mentioned dollar cost averaging, so you can spread
Speaker 1: it out. But of course timing the market is virtually impossible,
Speaker 1: even for some of the biggest professionals out there, but
Speaker 1: for those who are dying to try to figure out
Speaker 1: if the bottom has passed, when one is best to
Speaker 1: get in. Is it typically better to be earlier or
Speaker 1: is it typically better to be late and be sure
Speaker 1: at least that we're headed on the way up and
Speaker 1: things are ameliorating or getting better. That is the age
Speaker 1: old question. I have so many clients who who who
Speaker 1: think you know exactly you know? Should I be earlier?
Speaker 1: Should I wake till everything is good? And what happens
Speaker 1: is if you wait till everything is great, then you're
Speaker 1: afraid to invest because you think he's peaked. So you
Speaker 1: know value you know, and particularly are so we do
Speaker 1: tend to be early. But I do, like, I really
Speaker 1: do love the idea of dollar cost averaging in that's amazing.
Speaker 1: You said two hundred and sixties. Some drugs are in
Speaker 1: trial right now for something either too as a vaccine.
Speaker 1: I guess we were to treat the symptoms of the virus.
Speaker 1: It's amazing, isn't it brings me? Brings me uh to
Speaker 1: uh point you made in this note uh opportunistic realization
Speaker 1: of profits uh meaning you know, selling your your winners
Speaker 1: when they've when they've may be gone a little too
Speaker 1: far where you've at least you know, been able to
Speaker 1: ride them a long time. And you you mentioned Jilliad,
Speaker 1: the stock appreciated because of its has this army of
Speaker 1: anti viral medications uh potentially to use in the fighting
Speaker 1: assist fires. I've noticed. I mean, it seems like there's
Speaker 1: been in the midst of all this panic selling, there's
Speaker 1: been almost um an irrational exuberance towards some of these
Speaker 1: drug stocks. You know, I remember the Maderna Pharmaceuticals, very small,
Speaker 1: uh drug developer. Is that part of it with with
Speaker 1: why you you may have trimmed some of the Giliad steak?
Speaker 1: Is it? Are people just getting a little too excited
Speaker 1: about some of these drug makers? Do you think, well,
Speaker 1: we still like the valuation of Gilead and um and
Speaker 1: you do you know, I'd like to think that investors
Speaker 1: when looking for companies that might be winners here in
Speaker 1: the event against COVID nineteen. When they saw that gilly
Speaker 1: I could be one of the winners and then looked
Speaker 1: at their batton sheet and their cash flow statement said oh, well,
Speaker 1: that's a juicy dividend that I can feel quite confident about. That.
Speaker 1: It was a key prompt thought process for them in
Speaker 1: terms of um, Gillia as a stock in the portfolio. Um,
Speaker 1: but it did run up a little bit. And um
Speaker 1: and while they do have an army avantiid their old drugs,
Speaker 1: and that's you know, one of them, for example, help
Speaker 1: cure help, see right, help, it's helping to eradicated, which
Speaker 1: is amazing. Um. You know, we did get a little
Speaker 1: worried that if there were too many hopes pinned from Disappear,
Speaker 1: which is the one that is being tested in China
Speaker 1: and in the US right now, that there might be
Speaker 1: a near term self. And one of our disciplines is
Speaker 1: if stock appreciates above five per cent in the portfolio,
Speaker 1: we're automatically going to scale it back because we don't
Speaker 1: want any name to be too big. That's interesting, So
Speaker 1: yet you have a five percent cap on on any
Speaker 1: single holding in the portfolio. Yeah, it's just it's proven
Speaker 1: to be a good one. Yeah. Well, Mike, some would
Speaker 1: say that certainly, as you alluded to that some of
Speaker 1: these moves in the healthcare names are or have been
Speaker 1: a bit crazy. So you know what time it is, then,
Speaker 1: I guess it's that time. Um, Sarah, we got a
Speaker 1: great uh call over the podcast hotline. For once in
Speaker 1: my life, I have the number handy, so I'll take
Speaker 1: the pressure off of you the only time, Mike. This
Speaker 1: is the only time I haven't never had. So the
Speaker 1: number is six four six three to four three four nine. Oh.
Speaker 1: So please, if you saw something crazy in the markets,
Speaker 1: give us a call, leave us a voicemail and maybe
Speaker 1: we'll play your voicemail on the show. And if you
Speaker 1: have any other comments, Uh, we're happy to be very
Speaker 1: happy to hear from you. But we got a call
Speaker 1: all the way from Hong Kong a listener named Gerald,
Speaker 1: So let's listen to what he had to say. Hi,
Speaker 1: I'm going to cheat just a little bit, you know,
Speaker 1: like Mike. First, what I saw was a webcast from
Speaker 1: a Tree Capital. In it, their co founder Howard Marks
Speaker 1: mentioned a memo he wrote twenty years ago with a
Speaker 1: quote that says you cannot predict the nixt recession or
Speaker 1: the next market sell off, but you can prepare for it,
Speaker 1: so for a wisdom as usual. Then the crazy part
Speaker 1: hits me. Just three months ago, when fund managers were
Speaker 1: making theasts. How many times have you heard some very smart,
Speaker 1: very respectable managers say that although the market is richly valued,
Speaker 1: they could see absolutely no reason for a recession in
Speaker 1: the next six to twelve months. I may have heard
Speaker 1: this a dozen times on various podcasts, and I at
Speaker 1: every time there was no argument from me. These are
Speaker 1: smart and successful investment professionals. But that was just three
Speaker 1: months ago. It is crazy how things can change on
Speaker 1: a dime like that. How far in the future can
Speaker 1: we really see? Yeah, I think he makes a great point.
Speaker 1: You think of all those look ahead uh forecast pieces
Speaker 1: that people spent countless hours on and you know about
Speaker 1: a month end of the year, they're all sort of
Speaker 1: null and void. What do you take exception, Sarah with
Speaker 1: him saying I cheat a little bit. I thought you
Speaker 1: were going to say, that's what you agreed with. He
Speaker 1: was calling you out. But it does remind me of
Speaker 1: one line, I won't I won't call the shop out.
Speaker 1: But there was one line I read earlier this year
Speaker 1: that said, maybe the best reason to be bullish is
Speaker 1: the fact that there's no reason to be bearished. And
Speaker 1: then you have all of this evolve and it just
Speaker 1: goes to show really it's nothing anyone could have predicted,
Speaker 1: right right, Yeah, Diane, I'm wondering how you handle something
Speaker 1: like that. I mean, it feels like not so long ago,
Speaker 1: everyone had to be a European political science expert to
Speaker 1: get through the debt crisis, you know. Then we were
Speaker 1: all became sort of oil field experts and credit oil
Speaker 1: credit experts, and then Iranian experts and US trying to
Speaker 1: trade experts. But I gotta say having to become a
Speaker 1: an expert on viruses is something new. Was It must
Speaker 1: get overwhelming as a fund manager to try to have
Speaker 1: to react to crisis after crisis like this, especially when
Speaker 1: so many of them turned out to be sort of
Speaker 1: false alarms, and then all of a sudden you get
Speaker 1: hit by something like this. I mean, is this this
Speaker 1: must have been one of the more stressful episodes of
Speaker 1: your career. I would imagine, Well, I care deeply about
Speaker 1: our clients and my most important job and we have
Speaker 1: a lot of dear friends in Hong Kong. My most
Speaker 1: important job is really to hold their hands during this
Speaker 1: time and say, you know, let's you know, we're going
Speaker 1: to be vigilant here. We're coming through the portfolio. We're
Speaker 1: doing it for you. We're going to lead out the
Speaker 1: names that should be leaded out in mature. We're investing
Speaker 1: in the ones that will prosper for you and have
Speaker 1: power for you and your portfolio going forward. So that
Speaker 1: surprisingly um comes to be called upon more often than not,
Speaker 1: the job of saying this is our job, this is
Speaker 1: what we love to do, and we love to take
Speaker 1: care of you. You know, trust us. We're going to
Speaker 1: guide you through this and come out the other side
Speaker 1: for your investment portfolio. Okay, Diana, I just hope you're
Speaker 1: washing your hands after you're holding all those hands. Right, sir,
Speaker 1: what's the craziest thing you saw in markets this week?
Speaker 1: So my goes back to what we are discussing as
Speaker 1: it relates to earning seasons. So Jonathan Golf, who had
Speaker 1: on the podcast a while back from Credit Sweeze, he
Speaker 1: had a statistic saying that last week, seventeen percent of
Speaker 1: analysts revised their estimates, So that's actually a lot. That
Speaker 1: would amount to about four times of arder or fifteen
Speaker 1: times a year, So it's very high. But it's the
Speaker 1: problem is, and what's crazy is it's just not fast enough. Still.
Speaker 1: Estimates continue to be stale, and it seems as though
Speaker 1: bottoms up sells size. Analysts just can't keep up with
Speaker 1: the news flow or even just try to figure out
Speaker 1: what companies are going to go about reporting. So it's
Speaker 1: just pretty crazy because we're heading into this earning season
Speaker 1: and we don't really have a consensus for the market
Speaker 1: to base anything off of. I agree, I and I
Speaker 1: read that story of yours certain In fact, I quoted
Speaker 1: it on the Tom Keans radio show to think you
Speaker 1: show you how how much I'm paying attention there, and
Speaker 1: that is It's true. Though you think in a normal
Speaker 1: world you would think seventeen percent of earnings estimates were changed.
Speaker 1: It sounds like a massive number, but it seems low
Speaker 1: in this environment. You know, it seems like every single
Speaker 1: estimate out there should be changed. It's crazy, Diane, have
Speaker 1: you seen anything crazy in markets this week? I know
Speaker 1: it was a pretty calm week. Well, we've got two
Speaker 1: conflicting stories. Will there be uh, because of cohabitation and
Speaker 1: self quarantine me with your significant other, Will there be
Speaker 1: a baby boom? Um or countered by you know, post
Speaker 1: the major quarantine process in China. Is there going to
Speaker 1: be a spike in divorce rates? And there was a
Speaker 1: Bloomberg article that said, um, and you know it's from China,
Speaker 1: so you know, we're not sure, but that that divorce
Speaker 1: rates are picking up steadily and um and that maybe, uh,
Speaker 1: they're going to put some laws into place. They have
Speaker 1: a third day cooling off terry when they go back
Speaker 1: to work and maybe say, oh, well, it wasn't so bad.
Speaker 1: It's it's crazy how it's changing everything in society, like
Speaker 1: stuff like that. You would never think, you know, it
Speaker 1: would have that big an effect. That reminds me sort
Speaker 1: of another crazy thing we had offered to us from
Speaker 1: our our friend Ben Emmons at Medley Global Advisors. He
Speaker 1: pointed out that Bloomberg story mentioning and Diane, you remind
Speaker 1: ided me of this talking about a baby boom. But
Speaker 1: he pointed out the story that there is a shortage
Speaker 1: of condoms in the world. I guess because because the
Speaker 1: raw materials are being used for for the gloves so, um,
Speaker 1: maybe maybe that baby boom is not not such a
Speaker 1: wild idea. It sounds crazy, but Diane, I'm actually curious.
Speaker 1: I mean, people think about demographics. When you think about
Speaker 1: long term investing opportunities. If you think of the possibility
Speaker 1: for a baby boom, could you imagine anyone out there
Speaker 1: maybe betting on that or investing based on the possibility
Speaker 1: of a baby boom coming forwards? Of course, you know,
Speaker 1: for nine eleven, there was some thought that maybe that tragedy,
Speaker 1: that horrific tragedy, would cause people to think about and
Speaker 1: then we didn't see, we didn't see much of a
Speaker 1: baby boom. But when it's from that, but when it's
Speaker 1: a prolonged period of cohabitation, and um, I think I
Speaker 1: think that it would be surprising to see people either
Speaker 1: duck pets or decided to have a family and um,
Speaker 1: you know, one of them into our portfolios Propter and
Speaker 1: gamble and certainly Pampers you know, might be right there
Speaker 1: you go, it's you know, I actually did predict a
Speaker 1: baby boom on Twitter early on in this and I
Speaker 1: was joking, but I'm gonna resend the joking part of it.
Speaker 1: I'm now now I'm going to say that was a
Speaker 1: serious It was very early to Mike in case anyone
Speaker 1: that was a serious prediction, not a joke. I'm going
Speaker 1: on the record train. All right. Well, I'll end it
Speaker 1: with the craziest thing I saw. And God bless the
Speaker 1: New York Post. Whenever I think I've run out of
Speaker 1: crazy things in the markets, they're they're They're always there
Speaker 1: for me. Uh and Sarah. This is interesting for two reasons. Obviously,
Speaker 1: like yourself, everyone is supposed to be staying in their
Speaker 1: apartments in New York. You're not supposed to be going out. Um,
Speaker 1: but you're familiar with the famous statue on Wall Street
Speaker 1: of the charging bowl. It's called everyone knows that famous
Speaker 1: iconic at you. Well, I'm gonta left. The New York
Speaker 1: Post take it away here with their headline nude woman
Speaker 1: ignores coronavirus warnings to straddle the charging bull statue. Did
Speaker 1: you see that? So this the snaked woman decided to
Speaker 1: go and jump on the back of the charging bull statue.
Speaker 1: This is really sanitary, I know, and I guess it.
Speaker 1: Look there's no one around, I mean no one's probably
Speaker 1: touched the bull in in days. I will say she
Speaker 1: wasn't completely nude though. I I researched this. I looked
Speaker 1: at the pictures. She had a cowboy had on and
Speaker 1: some New York fashion, yeah, some kind of bandanna around
Speaker 1: her face. And this being the New York Post, you
Speaker 1: didn't get just one picture. You got a full five
Speaker 1: picture photo essay of this incident. Um And as the
Speaker 1: Post points out, I am cheating a little bit. The
Speaker 1: guy in Hong Kong's right, I'm cheating a little bit
Speaker 1: because this was actually last week, but it was wasn't
Speaker 1: published until after we UH published the podcast. So I
Speaker 1: feel like I'm in the clear there. And where's the
Speaker 1: connection to markets? Mike, I get the charging, but well
Speaker 1: here it is. Here it is, And I'll just let
Speaker 1: you make your own conclusion based on the final sentence
Speaker 1: of the New York Post story, which says the unsanitary
Speaker 1: stunt came as US stocks rallied for a third straight
Speaker 1: day with the DAL finishing up and fifty two points.
Speaker 1: There's a connection, so they might want to get her
Speaker 1: back out there. I don't know. I'm just just just
Speaker 1: in case that's hysterical. All right, Well, I'm sure going
Speaker 1: forwards there will be up plenty more for us to
Speaker 1: choose from and to include. But Diane JOFFI, thank you
Speaker 1: so much for joining the show this week. Thank you guys,
Speaker 1: it was really a lot of fun What Goes Up.
Speaker 1: We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find
Speaker 1: us on the Blueberg Terminal website and app or ever
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Speaker 1: us on Twitter, follow me at Sara Ponzach and Mike
Speaker 1: Is at Reunonymous. You can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at Podcasts.
Speaker 1: What Goes Up is produced by Topur Forehead. The head
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Speaker 1: you next time.